1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: the Fantasy Football Podcast, and today we're talking about It's 3 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 1: a trap. We're talking about fantasy traps kind of early 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: on in rounds as well. I'm Chris Welsh and I've 5 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: got Terror Roberts with me, and these are Terres's traps. 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 1: There's a new segment, it's Terra's Traps in the draft rounds, 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: focusing on like two through six, because Tera, I think 8 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: it's fair to say, like people get worked up about 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: the terms like sleepers and bus and stuff like that, 10 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: and you know, sleepers don't really work higher in drafts. 11 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: Bus don't necessarily work later in drafts. But when you 12 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: really focus in like those middle portions, the higher to 13 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: middle portions specifically, our kind of mental focus here is 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: kind of rounds two through six, just a little bit 15 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: of first round in here as well. The big traps 16 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: in drafts that are going to screw things up and 17 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: are gonna set you off on a completely wrong path. 18 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: Potentially they're gonna happen at the top end of the draft. 19 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: So that's kind of the focus here. You kind of agree, 20 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: obviously this is the direction you went, but the players 21 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: that you want to avoid aren't really later in the drafts. 22 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: They're at the top end. 23 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny because we do hone in on that 24 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,199 Speaker 2: word bus. But I feel like traps is cool because 25 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: bus implies like it's doom and gloom, the worst ever, 26 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: it's just going to crash and burn, right, But traps 27 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: is a fun little sneaky one because it allows us 28 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 2: the flexibility to include a wider range of players. So 29 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 2: I like this one here. 30 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: And it can set and the idea here. This is 31 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 1: like a different way to approach it is. Sometimes there 32 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: can be players and maybe they're not necessarily like a 33 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: full bus, but drafting them can also set you on 34 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: a wrong path of where you may have wanted to go. 35 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: Maybe it changes you positionally, Maybe their lack of performance 36 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: not only hurts you, but the rest of the roster 37 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,839 Speaker 1: construction is in there. So that's what we're doing today. 38 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: We've got five draft traps. Terrorist traps is going to 39 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: be our main focus. You guys can let us know 40 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: if you agree or not in the comments, and you 41 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: can tell us who your traps are. So let's jump 42 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: into it with number one. We are going to jump 43 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: in with a wide receiver. This is a very highly 44 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: talked about, highly valued wide receiver. So you're going to 45 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,239 Speaker 1: get your You're gonna get your attack here. If anybody 46 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: is going to jump on anything because this name is 47 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: so high and you have picked your draft trap of 48 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: Nico Collins, so talk to us about whether it is 49 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: his production or what he sets you off in a 50 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: wrong path on why he is a draft day trap. 51 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought we'd start off spicy here and then 52 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: rip the band aid off and get a little softer 53 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 2: as we get further into the show. I feel like 54 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: I love Nico, but I feel like we're overlooking a 55 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 2: few things with the Texans offense and team as a whole, really, 56 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 2: and this is a very hefty price to pay for 57 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: a receiver who we cannot literally point to any discernible 58 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: evidence that he should see an increase in production this season, 59 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 2: and the production that he had last year is just 60 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 2: not worthy of this pick. I understand why he's being 61 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: pushed up. It makes logical sense, but at the end 62 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 2: of the day, we're talking opportunity costs and what you 63 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 2: could potentially lose from drafting players like this. If anything, 64 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: there's only reasons why we would potentially see a decrease 65 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 2: in production for Nico Collins. We have three years of 66 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 2: production with Nico Collins and c J. Stroud, We understand 67 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 2: what this is. Right. Last season was fine overall in 68 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 2: terms of the finished wide receiver ten in average fantasy 69 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 2: points per game and half BBR averaging twelve points seven 70 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 2: fantasy points per game. But that finish was a little 71 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 2: bit misleading. It was a weird year, right. That finish 72 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: is more so a mid tier wide receiver two in 73 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 2: a normal year, not the production that we want from 74 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 2: a guy that we are drafting early round one, sometimes 75 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 2: for some people late early round two, sometimes for some 76 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: people late round one. So that finish was just a 77 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 2: little bit inflated because we had a lot of subplower 78 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: wide receiver play last season due to wide receiver injuries 79 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,839 Speaker 2: quarterback injuries that made things just kind of wonky. So again, 80 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 2: in a normal season, that kind of production is like 81 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: wide receiver seventeen type of production. Unfortunately, and you might say, like, okay, Tara, well, 82 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: wide reci ten to wide receiver seventeen, really isn't that dramatic? 83 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: What are we arguing over here? It is when you 84 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 2: are passing over potentially league winning options here. So while 85 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: he definitely does potentially have like a slightly higher ceiling 86 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 2: because we have seen that in past years, but the 87 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 2: question we have to ask ourselves is is are there 88 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: Texans progressing in a way that gets us back to 89 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 2: that ceiling that we saw like two years ago, or 90 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: are they going towards this being kind of the norm 91 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: for them because their defense is only somehow getting better. 92 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: It's at the top of the league. They have all 93 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 2: the tools in place for them to be a league 94 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 2: average passing team at best and not have to push 95 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 2: aggressive volumes. So for us to realistically see a massive 96 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: increase that is going to justify that early round pick. 97 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: I do think we're seeing Nico Collins being drafted above 98 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 2: his most logical ceiling. 99 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: It's a really interesting spot because he comes in as 100 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: wide receiver nine ECR overall fifteen, so deeper leagues, i'd 101 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: be like a first round pick kind of like a 102 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: wheel pick. To your point, what you're passing up if 103 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: you're worried about what that production is going to look like. 104 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: You're passing up the number one tight end who comes 105 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 1: in at eas R sixteen. You're passing up a couple 106 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: banger running backs and Devon Anschen and Chase Brown. I 107 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: guess and take one Barklay. Frankly, if you want to 108 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: sit in the there's a slew of running backs that 109 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: are in there, and then I think maybe an interesting 110 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: argument you can ask yourself, though sometimes there's not much 111 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: you could do about it. It's like you have all 112 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: those running backs and tight ends that are sandwiched in between. 113 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 1: How far off, truly do you feel that Nico Collins 114 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: is from these next tiers of wide receivers, from George 115 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: Pickens or Rashi Rice or a lave There is a 116 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 1: scenario where like a Lavee could kind of fall back down, 117 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: and it's like is it worth is it worth taking 118 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: him and passing up maybe potential same tiered wide receivers 119 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: you can get a little bit later for the depth 120 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: of running back or is he that important too? This 121 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 1: is a weird one. I'm kind of a tank Dell 122 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: guy this year. I talked about it a couple of 123 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: weeks ago that like, I thought the health was starting 124 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: to look good, and then there's some videos that surfaced 125 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: a little bit ago that show just I mean, great, 126 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: great hard hitting route running. You kind of hope that 127 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: that's going to translate into the season. There's a bunch 128 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: of pass catchers that can he still maintain the shared 129 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: dominance in there. So I think it's a fair argument, 130 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: especially in the idea of what maybe it pushes you 131 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: to later in the drafts, which creates the real trap. 132 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: So he is ECR fifteen on the board. I was 133 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: going to mention another wide receiver that maybe maybe could 134 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: float around the same tier, but he is your second trap. 135 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: This is a guy that's a little bit further into 136 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: that third round. I think from an ECR perspective, he 137 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: is wide receiver fifteen. He's thirtieth overall. And I did 138 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: not say his name because you are saying it's a trap. 139 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 1: Teteroa McMillan is number two on your list. 140 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, And this is again it's one of those 141 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: ones that we have to contextualize because again when we're 142 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 2: talking about these potential traps, we're talking about guys who 143 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 2: are actually the wide receiver ones of their team, Like 144 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 2: there's no question about that, but what is the true 145 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 2: ceiling here? And then you mentioned it perfectly like it 146 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 2: was the perfect leading Chris backs there in round two 147 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 2: and kind of teetering over into round three as well. 148 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 2: The twenty twenty six running back landscape is incredibly top heavy. 149 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: There's so many guys in round two that have legitimate 150 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: top three upside. There are guys in round three that 151 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 2: might be more of a stretch for top three, but 152 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: are still like very secure potential top ten assets here. 153 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 2: They are assets that just don't exist later in the 154 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: draft unfortunately. So when you're looking at a guy like 155 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: Teteroa McMillan, his floor quite frankly in his ceiling, it 156 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 2: does exist later unfortunately in mid rounds. Right, if you 157 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 2: waste a premium draft capital on overvalued options, you're kind 158 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: of setting yourself up to pick from volatile, low floor 159 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 2: backfields once that kind of tier cliff hits later on 160 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: in the draft. So when I talked about the Texans, right, 161 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: I talked about them potentially being a league average passing 162 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: team in twenty twenty six, Like, if we get league 163 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: average from the Panthers, it's a great year. We would 164 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: be blessed. Unfortunately, because the volume just isn't there. And 165 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: I hate that because I love Bryce Young and I 166 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 2: love Tetoro McMillan. I would love it if the Panthers 167 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 2: did push more aggressive pass volume, because when Bryce Young 168 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 2: throws for volume, there's not a problem. It's good. It's 169 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: not as if he's like out there struggling and throwing 170 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 2: a whole bunch of interceptions and just looking awful confused. No, 171 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 2: it's perfectly fine. But the Panthers clearly do not want 172 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 2: to go that direction. They want to have a very 173 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 2: balanced attack and they want to lean on the ground game, 174 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 2: and they have been very diligent about their offensive line 175 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: improvements and it should be a top ten unit this season. 176 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 2: And they're clearly prompt about the prospects of a healthy 177 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 2: Jonathan Brooks here in a Taanden backfield. Potentially We've talked 178 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 2: about it ten thousand times about who's going to be 179 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 2: Juba Hobbard Jonathan Brooks. Can't he stay healthy? Right, But 180 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 2: at the end of the day, the Panthers want this 181 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: run game to work. And when we're looking at Bryce 182 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: Young last year, he had just four games over two 183 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,079 Speaker 2: hundred passing yards last season. That's not going to cut 184 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 2: it now. Naturally. Naturally, as he continues to develop and 185 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 2: this offense continues to develop, we'll see a bump, right, 186 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 2: But we need more than just a bump. We need 187 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 2: a significant improvement here and I don't see that happening. 188 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 2: And the other aspect here is the Panthers defense isn't prolific, 189 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 2: but that's another area where they have been chipping away 190 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 2: and improving, and it's good enough. They keep games very 191 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 2: manageable to where the Panthers don't really ever have to 192 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 2: force aggressive pass volume unless they're facing those outlier LA 193 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 2: RAMS type of teams. Right. So the result is is 194 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 2: that when it comes to Teteroe McMillan, just based off 195 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: the peer of volume of the offense, the most likely 196 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 2: outcome for him is a mid tier wide receiver two 197 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 2: or a low end wide receiver two floor right, which 198 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 2: might seem on the surface like, oh, that's very safe, 199 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: but again there's a lot of guys being drafted around 200 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 2: him and behind him at wide receiver in other positions 201 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 2: that you might get to the end of the season 202 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 2: look back and get be frustrated thinking if I had 203 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: just passed over that that mediocre production that we got 204 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 2: from Tedroe McMillan, I could have had a much higher 205 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 2: league winning upside type of player here. So you're taking 206 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 2: a player that has, in my opinion, a very unique 207 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 2: combination of a low floor and a low ceiling because 208 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 2: of the lack of pass volume there. Because he's the 209 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 2: wide receiver one. At the end of the day, it's 210 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 2: gonna pan out into a certain total. Right, you'll probably 211 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 2: hit a thousand yards with him, but not the level 212 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 2: of volume that we want for the pick that we're 213 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 2: investing in him. 214 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: I think it's really interesting. I think my focus on 215 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: that becomes more about roster construction more than anything else. 216 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: Like you know, I'm a little washy on the Nico one. 217 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: I thought it is an interesting perspective of like there's 218 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: that big run of running backs and stuff. This one 219 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: really hits home because it's like, I don't think Tetoroa 220 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: is a bad player at all, and I don't even 221 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: think that's really the argument. You're not making that argument, 222 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: but you are in this giant clump. If you look 223 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros on the rankings Finished pros dot Com 224 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: Slash NFL slash rankings, you see the overall Tier four 225 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: is almost twenty players, around eighteen players. The top of 226 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: it is Ttero McMillan. The bottom of it is forty 227 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: seventh in Travis eten. But what I want to focus 228 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 1: on is the wide receivers in there. The bottom end 229 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: of the wide receivers are guys like Jalen Wattle and 230 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin. I think guys like Wattle, A mecheg Buka 231 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: Lad mcconkay, I think they're in the same tier as 232 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: Tedo McMillan Sandwich. Just like we talked about before from Tetoro, 233 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: who's at the very top is Zay Flowers is right 234 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: below him by way, and I'll take Zay Flowers there. 235 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 1: But under we have another one of the situations, multiple 236 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 1: running backs. Jeremia, I love Kyrin Williams, There's Josh Jacobs 237 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 1: that's in there, and then there's just a slew of 238 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: other wide receivers that have maybe similar ish production. So 239 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: the adjustment you could do not to say, hey, Tedo 240 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: McMillan is a trap because he's bad. It's like, well, no, 241 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: it can deviate you from a plan that you might 242 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: want to do, and then you can jump back and 243 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 1: get a similar wide receiver. I really do vibe with 244 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: that one trap number three, you are going to be 245 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: jumping to a running back. This is a player that's 246 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 1: in that sandwich we just talked about. So this is 247 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: not going to be apparently one of your pivots in here. 248 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: You have your first running back trap of the season, 249 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: and he's with the New York Jets. 250 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, I decided to not pick on the wide receivers 251 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 2: there and show some of the anti love to the 252 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 2: running backs. Breeseol So sorry, buddy. I feel like we 253 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 2: and myself included, we tend to give him a pass 254 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 2: because you know, Okay, one, the trash offense that you 255 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 2: have been in your entire career is not your fault. 256 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 2: And two, you've got receiving upsides so wonderful. We all know, 257 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 2: like in fantasy, Hey, as long as I can count 258 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 2: on you to get a certain level of receptions, I 259 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 2: feel good about your prospects of being able to pass 260 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,559 Speaker 2: through a specifically terrible offense. Right. But when you dig 261 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 2: a little bit deeper, there are some concerns here, and again, 262 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 2: no concerns around talent. Reese is wonderful. I wish he 263 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 2: had gone literally anywhere else this offseason, but unfortunately he 264 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 2: is a New York debt here. And when we're looking 265 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 2: at him in the context of this offense, what we 266 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 2: saw out of him last year and the year before 267 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 2: might unfortunately be on repeat. And if that's the case, 268 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 2: we're drafting him over a very logical outcome for him. 269 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: When we look at hall stats, I mean he's maxed out. 270 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 2: Let's look at rushing yards. He is maxed out at 271 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 2: rushing yards with one thousand and sixty five in a 272 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 2: single season. Looking at receptions, we're going to disregard last 273 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 2: season not fair to him. Apparently the Jets quarterbacks were 274 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: literally terrified of checking down so they couldn't do it. 275 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: So we're gonna disregard that for him. And then jump 276 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 2: back to twenty twenty three, the year that he had 277 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 2: seventy six receptions, fantastic, wonderful, he was RB six and 278 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 2: average Fantasy points per game half PPR. That came specifically 279 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 2: when he was the second best or when the second 280 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: actually he was a second best pass catcher. The second 281 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: best pass scatcher that was not Brizol was Tyler Conklin, Right, 282 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 2: they were very depleted. The quarterback was Zach Wilson. Then 283 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 2: you cut to twenty twenty four, the Aaron Rodgers year, 284 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 2: big improvement in terms of quarterback, right, but still saw 285 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: a very good amount of checkdowns, because that's you know, 286 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers is a very checkdown for the quarterback. The 287 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 2: team was a struggle team. It was five and twelve, 288 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 2: So when we look at the context of that season, 289 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 2: it's a very similar comp Right, Breese couldn't get anything 290 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 2: done on the ground because it was a bad team. 291 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 2: Receptions were there, so it wasn't like the worst thing 292 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 2: in the world. But it wasn't wasn't amazing, wasn't the 293 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 2: ceiling that we were wanting for him. So I do 294 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 2: think that twenty twenty four season is kind of the 295 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: best comp scenario. Now, let's loop in Geno Smith here, 296 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: because we've got a new quarterback in Geno Smith, and 297 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 2: Gino Smith has no problem checking down, Right, we saw 298 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 2: that last season, right, we would expect the rate to 299 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 2: look very similar to Aaron Rodgers. So again, the comp 300 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: year twenty twenty four makes a lot of sense there. 301 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 2: If the offensive line is bad, Geno Smith will check 302 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 2: down to Breese Hall. Ironically, again, when you look at 303 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 2: the receptions for Geno Smith to Ash and genty last 304 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: season and Aaron Rodgers to Breese Hall, it is literally 305 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 2: the same stats exactly. So I feel like we have 306 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 2: already seen this outcome here. Do we want a duplication 307 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 2: of what we have seen before in this offense? Right? 308 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: And you can make the argument that, hey, what happens 309 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 2: if the offensive line is better and we can get 310 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 2: better production on the ground from him, while unfortunately, such 311 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 2: a stick show that if the offensive line is better, 312 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 2: Geno is going to check down less. And again, we 313 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 2: have capped Brie Hall at around eight thousand yards. So 314 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: unless we see some kind of dramatic, drastic improvement from 315 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 2: the Jets, we're looking at this kind of stat repeat 316 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 2: situation that we're seeing from him year after year. And unfortunately, 317 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 2: again we're looking at opportunity. We're going to look back 318 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 2: at this and say, dang, what if I drafted this 319 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 2: player instead of him? It would have paid off so 320 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 2: much better. 321 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, And those wide receivers that I talked about that 322 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: I really like, Versustero McMillan are below him in ECR. 323 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson is below him, meche Buka, Lad mcconkeye, Jalen Waddle, 324 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 1: all players I really like. I will say this is 325 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: the one I've not clicked briest Haall's name once in 326 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: any of the mill drafts. We've got multiple mock draft 327 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: episodes we've done here on Fantasy Pros, I've done them 328 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: in other spots. I've not clicked his name once. I 329 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: cannot get out of my head the idea that they 330 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: would still entertain three running backs, Like that's the thing 331 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: that continues too slow. It's just like a really interesting 332 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: points you had, by the way, about the theoretical ideas 333 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: of less checkdowns and not only ah duh, would less 334 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: receptions be not great, but if they bring it on 335 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: the ground a little bit more, that also doesn't fare 336 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: necessarily as well unless they would make the commitment different 337 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: conversation if he is the sole guy, if this is 338 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: a Christian McCaffrey usage situation where like, oh, there's other 339 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: cool guys whatever, but it's just gonna be Breece Hall 340 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: and it's going to be mass, mass volume. They're just 341 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: continuously presenting with us the idea that it won't be, 342 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: so that does make him It's a really dicey one. 343 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: The better quarterback play is kind of the test case 344 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: for like why you would want him more, But the 345 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: idea that there are still three running backs out there 346 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: kind of keeps me away from it and really more importantly, positionally, 347 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: of where you're at in a draft. As we talked about, 348 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: there are just so many enticing options that like thirty 349 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: to forty range has just a lot of players that 350 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: you want to get and making the wrong choice could 351 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: set you off in a wrong direction. But you guys 352 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: can let us know. We've got four and five coming up, 353 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: another wide receiver and a running back. But we've got 354 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: a little big giveaway action for you. If you guys 355 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 1: want a chance to win a fifty dollars Fantasy Pro 356 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: Shop code where you can get Fantasy Pros hat, We've 357 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: got hoodies, we've got shirts, we got other great stuff. 358 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: Or you want to win a one year Betting Pros 359 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: Premium subscription, then this is your shot. All you've got 360 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel. 361 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: Do it right now, drop a comment below on our videos. 362 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: You could say one of the guys that you think 363 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: is a trap, or you could comment on the players 364 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: we're talking about, and you're innered. That's it, and you 365 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: can do it to any video. By the way, we'll 366 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: be announcing both the winners right here on the channel, 367 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 1: so make sure you got notifications on so you know 368 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: when new video's up and you can claim your prize, 369 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: get some schwag, get a premium stuff. It's cool. We 370 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 1: like to do giveaways, and we got a lot more 371 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: cool ones coming for you, So make sure that's another 372 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 1: reason to be subscribed to making comments, because you'll already 373 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: be injured when you do so. All right, number four. 374 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: Tara warned me beforehand and said, all right, I've got 375 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 1: my take. Tara's a great prep set across the board. 376 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 1: I got my takes. She's just said when we get 377 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: to number four, strap in, grab a coffee. It's gonna 378 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: be a bit because you are gonna hard sell us 379 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: on this wide receiver being a trap. So I'm ready 380 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: hit us with number four. 381 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 2: Let's go. It is DJ Moore, and the reason that 382 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 2: I warned you about it is because I talked about 383 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 2: DJ More on a previous show and there was pushback 384 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 2: in the comics, which is good because I like pushback 385 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 2: because that allows me to better reframe things to articulate 386 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 2: the issue here. So going back and looking at DJ Moore, 387 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 2: the problem is is that he is being framed as 388 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 2: a safe pick because he is reuniting with his old 389 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. And what is lost here is just how 390 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 2: low his floor can be and how his time in 391 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 2: Carolina does not apply to Buffalo whatsoever. Here we have 392 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 2: had back to back seasons with fewer than five hundred 393 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: pass attempts for Josh Allen under Joe Brady. It's not 394 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 2: an accident, it's intentional. That is by design. Brady's significantly 395 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 2: reduced pass volume in Buffalo immediately becoming the OC in 396 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 2: the middle of the season. You can go back and 397 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 2: look at the exact week. There was a hard cutoff there. 398 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 2: So one little caveat on that one is that you 399 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 2: see people say he's going to be the Stephan Diggs. Nope, 400 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 2: that does not apply to Joe Brady. That overlap in 401 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 2: terms of positivity unfortunately did not exist there. Now. The 402 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 2: volume was prior to Brady with Stefan Diggs. Now Josh 403 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 2: Allen looking at him absolutely, I mean he's Josh Allen. 404 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 2: He can throw the ball forty times three hundred yards 405 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: easily if it were needed, but he doesn't need to 406 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 2: on most weeks. Unfortunately, it just works out way. Now, 407 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,439 Speaker 2: looking at DJ Moore, we need to assess his viability 408 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 2: in the Buffalo offense currently. Rather than applying his usage 409 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 2: under Joe Brady and Carolina, because Buffalo and Carolina are 410 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 2: two extremely different situations. Carolina was an objectively awful team 411 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: under Joe Brady's tenure is offensive coordinator, not his fault. 412 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 2: Not his fault. The starters were Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold 413 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 2: before the Reformation, the ghost of Cam Newton plus p J. Walker. 414 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 2: It was just a complete mess. And you could argue, Okay, well, Tara, 415 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: that's great, that's great because that means that Josh Allen 416 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 2: is like ten times better than those guys. So there's 417 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 2: going to be more opportunities for DJ Moore. Now. No, Unfortunately, 418 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 2: because Carolina was so terrible over that time period, the 419 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 2: Panthers had inflated pass attempts. In both of the years 420 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 2: under Joe Brady, Carolina saw one hundred more attempts each 421 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: season than we have seen from Buffalo in the past 422 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,360 Speaker 2: two seasons under Joe Brady. You can't take the targets 423 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 2: in Carolina and just put them in Buffalo because the 424 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 2: targets don't exist in Buffalo. Now, mind you, also, both 425 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 2: of those years under Joe Brady, CMC was injured. In 426 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 2: both of those years, they had to funnel volume through 427 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 2: the receivers and ironically, which again does not bode well 428 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 2: for Buffalo, one of those seasons would Dj Moore. He 429 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 2: was actually out targeted by Robbie Chosen Anderson. There is 430 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 2: no guarantee for big volume in Buffalo for DJ Moore. 431 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 2: They would have to significantly increase their pass volume for 432 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 2: that to happen. They added Dj Moore to improve the 433 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,199 Speaker 2: quality of their past catchers to elevate it, not to 434 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 2: make a big dramatic increase in pass volume. So that's 435 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: the issue here. Unfortunately with him. This one is a 436 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: very very hard fade for me because I understand the 437 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: appeal of DJ Moore and getting him into a situation 438 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 2: with Josh Allen the quarterback. It's wonderful and we could 439 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 2: have this and that, but I don't think we're going 440 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 2: to see the amount of pass attempts that you would 441 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 2: hope for in terms of a massive increase, And if 442 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: that does not happen, we are again looking at very 443 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 2: mediocre season that is often difficult to predict on a 444 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 2: week to week basis. 445 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 1: With Josh Allen, he's a really tough one. I can 446 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: see why people might, you know, feel very convicted to 447 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: talk about it, because like the only incredible analysis that 448 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: you do, Tara, as you always do. The only thing 449 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: I hyper focus on, and this is like a super 450 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 1: small thing, is where he's being drafted and the value 451 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: versus the bust or breakout potential. If you know what 452 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 1: I'm saying, he is wide receiver twenty seven. You know 453 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: that cost is in Bear's territory, you know what I mean, 454 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: like the Bear Like obviously there's percipable number one. He's 455 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: in argue this you know, better offense or whatever it is. 456 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: But I agree with you there are a lot of 457 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: different weapons there. There's a lot of different styles. Allen's 458 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: going to take it on the ground, like the usage, 459 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: the big play potential. 460 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 3: But. 461 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 1: Is the value of what his current cost is at 462 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: sixty overall at wide receiver twenty seven? I can agree. 463 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: There might be a few names I prefer better. Another 464 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,680 Speaker 1: player I have not clicked in any mock draft is 465 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 1: DJ Moore. I have clicked Christian Watson. I have gone 466 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 1: down a little bit into the seventies and messed around 467 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,439 Speaker 1: and drafted like a Marvin Harrison or something like that. 468 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: But you know, in what level does this throw you off? 469 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: And can he not succeed or at least return that value. 470 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: That's the big question. I think that maybe some people 471 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: are arguing. But I will say, if we do this 472 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: continued experiment of looking the players in between, when you 473 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: see Basheal Touton, you see Jadaim Price, you see Carnel Tate, 474 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: there's a lot of upside plays that are coming after 475 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: DJ Moore, which is going to probably also make me avoid. 476 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: But on top of everything else, you make great points 477 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 1: about it's more perceived volume than it is like actual 478 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: volume that's going to come into play. So I know 479 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: that was a big one for you. The last one 480 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: pitch you You, Me and FITZI have been kind of partners 481 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 1: in a lot of shows lately, which has been a 482 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: lot of fun. But this is going to kind of 483 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: pit two of my dear friends against each other because 484 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: FITZI loves Bucky Irving and Tara says, Bucky Irving is 485 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: the final draft trap of the episode. So Terra's traps 486 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: ends with Bucky Irving. So why why do you hate 487 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: yourself some Bucky Irving? 488 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 2: This is another painful one here. I will say I 489 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:41,400 Speaker 2: was a pioneer in the fade Bucky movement this off season, 490 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: and I did my job effectively, right. I do like 491 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 2: to believe that I am the sole reason. No, I'm 492 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 2: being dramatic, I'm not this whole reason. I am happy 493 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: that his ranking has dropped all the way to RB twenty. 494 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 2: And because I did my job of pushing it back 495 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 2: to a more appropriate level. Mission accomplished, right, And so 496 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 2: I actually haven't really been talking about Bucky that much 497 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 2: because I've been like, ah, you know what my problem 498 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,199 Speaker 2: was that it was just way too high before we 499 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 2: have successfully pushed it back. I feel much better. I 500 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 2: don't need to talk about Bucky. Irvan Constants. 501 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 1: I know where you're going with this great, great pre sell, 502 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: because there is a reason we might need to have 503 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: a conversation now that you brought it down, because some 504 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: certain new information might be bringing it back up. I'm guessing, 505 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: is where we're going. 506 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can, and you can make the argument right 507 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 2: that this is still a You can actually can make 508 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 2: the argument that it's both a safe and risky pick 509 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 2: depending on how you look at it. Right, you can 510 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 2: make the argument that it's a risky pick because it's 511 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 2: still a low floor issue because again, you know, we've 512 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 2: got the whole. When will he and is he gonna 513 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 2: be okay recovering from the surgery? What point do we 514 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 2: see him, How comfortable do we feel like it? We 515 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 2: went through the ringer with him last season, and that 516 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 2: that's something that lingers constantly, right, that fear of how 517 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,639 Speaker 2: can we actually trust him with his body? Right? But 518 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 2: the real problem here, aside from the injury trust issues 519 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 2: is the backfield mates. And I wanted to talk about 520 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 2: that specifically, that and the offensive coordinator specifically, because I 521 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 2: think when people look at it, they look and they say, look, 522 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 2: what Kenneth Gamewell did for Pittsburgh was an outlier last year. 523 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 2: That should not make us scared of Bucky Irving. And 524 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 2: to be clear, that was absolutely an outlier. That was 525 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 2: the result of Aaron Rodgers, who again is check down friendly, 526 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 2: hating all of his receivers outside of DK Metcalf and 527 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 2: force feeding Kenneth Gamewell to the tune of him leading 528 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,959 Speaker 2: the team in reception last year. Right, That's not going 529 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 2: to happen in Tampa Bay. But if game Well is 530 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 2: chipping away and taking away at that receiving work, and 531 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 2: then we have, you know, some additional touches for him 532 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 2: on the ground, and we've had the Bucks organization specifically 533 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 2: saying like, hey, these two players, Bucky Irving and Kenneth 534 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 2: Gamewell the mirror each other. This was a one A, 535 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,959 Speaker 2: one B situation. We're not speculating. These are words that 536 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 2: they have used. And then you have Sean Tucker who 537 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 2: is already sniping at him at the goal line last season, 538 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 2: throwing in a new offensive coordinator in Zach Robinson that 539 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 2: was giving Tyler aljeer goal line carries over Bijon Robinson 540 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 2: last season. If he was doing that the Bjon Robinson, 541 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: what makes you think there's going to be a certain 542 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 2: level of it? Must be Bucky Irving at the goal 543 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: line this season. And he already had an extremely, extremely 544 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 2: low and concerning share of touches in the red zone 545 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 2: and inside the ten last year compared to other clear 546 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 2: RB ones, So he's already got that going against him. 547 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 2: And you add in a guy who has been known 548 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 2: to take away workload from a lead back. Why should 549 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,719 Speaker 2: we feel so secure that Bucky Irving is getting a 550 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 2: very safe, hefty RB one workload. Everything about this situation him, 551 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 2: his injury, hit the Bucks, the offense, everything, the players 552 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: it screams that they are shifting more towards a committee. 553 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 2: And while he is not going to fade away and 554 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,199 Speaker 2: no one has taking his job, at the end of 555 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,479 Speaker 2: the day, what are we really drafting here? Because again 556 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 2: you look at the players being drafted around him, there 557 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 2: are definitely some riskier players being drafted around him, but 558 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 2: with risk comes a far higher ceiling than what we're 559 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 2: potentially getting here with Bucky Irving and all the potential 560 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 2: issues that are interlocking with him. 561 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 1: Interesting names, definitely gonna create some comments. The five draft 562 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: traps Nico Collins, Tetero McMillan, Brief Hall, DJ Moore, Bucky 563 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:46,719 Speaker 1: Irving also you know, strategically around running backs and wide receivers. 564 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 1: However you play it. It's a fun list and I 565 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: know we'll hear from you guys in the comments below. 566 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 1: Who are your draft traps? Well, guess what, When you 567 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: comment below and you're subscribed to us, you're already entered 568 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: into our contest as well, So feel free to do 569 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: so and make sure you go and check out everything 570 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: we've got with Draft Wizard, where you can start making 571 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: your drafts easiest as possible. With the draft simulator, you 572 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,919 Speaker 1: can do mocks and minutes, and you can check out 573 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: the ranks that we were talking about in here with 574 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 1: tears and more at fantasypros dot com slash NFL slash 575 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: Rankings where you can see ADP the rankings, more of 576 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: the industry people putting the ranks in create TCR. It's 577 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 1: great stuff, great stuff from Tara. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it. 578 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: That is Tara. I'm Chris Wells. Thank you so much 579 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,439 Speaker 1: for hanging out with us, and we will talk to 580 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: you next time right here on Fantasy Pros. 581 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. 582 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 583 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts 584 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 3: at fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify. Follow 585 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 3: us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and 586 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 3: subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash 587 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros