WEBVTT - Polling vs. The 2024 Election 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.960 Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and 0:00:05.000 --> 0:00:08.280 social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:13.840 Tim O'Bryant. Today's crash Course. Polling versus the twenty twenty 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:18.040 four election. Polling, the very inexact science that is the 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:22.520 lifeblood of political analysis and guesswork is very much with us, 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.759 built upon a series of queries that asks respondents essentially, 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.280 what do you think about X? Polling aims to make 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:34.279 the intangible concrete. It is the stuff from which predictions 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.720 are made, the data that fuels a political marketplace, aiming 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:42.519 to artfully respond to voters preferences and priorities. But polling, 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:47.440 via its siblings, focus groups and messaging, also aspires to 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:52.599 shape voters preferences two in the best interpretation, understand and 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.840 serve them with greater clarity in the worst interpretation. Messaging 0:00:56.880 --> 0:01:01.600 makes voters more malleable, more easily swayed. The modern polling 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.080 era may have begun in the late nineteen fifties when 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:07.040 Joe Kennedy retained the services of a polster named Lou 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.120 Harris to help him market his son John. Just like 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:15.640 another consumer product, today, polls beget messaging, which begets spin 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:20.800 which sometimes begets disinformation and other dark arts. It's tough 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.960 out there, and the twenty twenty four presidential race will 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:27.480 be a cage match. Joining me today is Frank Once. 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:31.440 Frank is a political and communication strategist and polster who 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.840 has spent much of his career working for Republicans. He 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.200 also has been a polster for some of the biggest 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:40.760 media companies in the country and specializes in leveraging the 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:45.600 emotional content of language to win campaigns. Welcome to Crash Course, Frank. 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:49.080 Thank you, and can I just start by saying I've 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:53.040 listened to your introduction, yes, and there are forwards that 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:58.440 I want to address right off the bat, disruption, prediction, disinformation, 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.800 and leverage the issue disruption is absolutely accurate from you, 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:07.440 even in the fact that I've just disrupted your conversation 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:10.760 right now. But the goal of the work that I 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:15.960 do is not disruption. It's actually understanding. It's comprehension. My 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:19.040 job is to understand the people that I'm researching, to 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:21.920 understand what they really want from what they're telling me. 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.040 It's the exact opposite of disruption. If I do my 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:29.080 job well, it's not disruption. There are no surprises there's 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:33.920 predictability and stability. Second prediction, I should not be doing 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.520 it and polsters should not be doing it. Yes, that's 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.639 what we're called upon to do. That's actually the least 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:43.079 important aspect of what a polster should do, and frankly, 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.119 the less predictions they do, the better off the profession 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:52.960 would be. Third information, which I am absolutely resolute in 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:55.679 the accuracy of what I tell you. In the accuracy 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:57.560 of what I put out doesn't mean I've got one 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:01.680 hundred percent record of success, but we have to be 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:05.640 the opponents, the most hostile people to any kind of 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.880 misinformation or disinformation. And finally, it's the idea of leverage. 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:15.720 To me, leverage is about knowledge, and I want to 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.040 know more than anyone in that room. I want to 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.480 understand not how people think, but what they believe and 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.840 why they communicate what they say. I don't look at 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.520 it as leverage. I look at it as wisdom to 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:33.600 hopefully reduce the conflicts and the surprises, and to help 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:38.800 either candidates or governments or businesses or anyone be able 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:42.560 to fully understand so they can keep their promises, they 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:44.680 can do the jobs that they were set out to do. 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:49.720 And most importantly, they will reinstill a level of trust 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.360 and confidence that what they say and what they mean 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:55.320 is what they actually do. 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.320 Well, Frank, I love that you put your linguist Scalpel 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.360 the use on the introduction. It's a great way actually 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:04.200 to start the show. Disruption is more about the ethos 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:06.880 of the show that we sort of look at disruptive 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:09.160 events to glean an understanding of them. So it was 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:13.560 less about polsters being disruptive agents. But certainly the other 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:18.160 three words that you've focused on, leverage, disinformation, and prediction. 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.480 I think those are good themes for us to weave 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:22.720 in and out of our conversation today because it is 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.599 the essence I think of where campaigns are won and 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:28.120 lost and where polling is right now in terms of 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:31.760 navigating around those rocks. And you've set this up wonderfully. 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:36.080 You've been around. You worked for Pap Buchanan, you worked 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.719 for Nude Gingrich, you worked for Rudy Giuliani, more recently, 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:43.080 Kevin McCarthy. You worked for the Bushes. You've represented a 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:44.320 lot of people and. 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:46.440 Never worked for the pulp On. Never work for the 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.320 Bushes ever, And this is an example. 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:51.600 Can you work for the Bush, White House in terms 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.760 of health and craft their method. Well, then let's get 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:57.000 to that later. Well let's handle that chronologically. I could 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:57.680 readdress this. 0:04:57.680 --> 0:04:59.599 Though I don't want you to cut this out of 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:03.000 the show. Okay, this is a perfect example of misinformation. 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:08.120 Somebody notice that, because misinformation would be I intended to 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.599 say you worked for the Bushes to fake out my 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:14.000 audience and have them believe bad things about you, knowing 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.680 that you didn't work for the Bushes. I honestly thought 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.880 you did, and I thought you advised them on climate 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:19.760 change initiatives. 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:22.680 But that's why this is so important. Don't cut this 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:26.960 from the show, please, because somebody wrote that more than 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:31.080 twenty years ago to hurt my reputation, to say that 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:35.000 this was done in a negative way. And that's exactly 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:35.680 the problem. 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:39.320 Back the matter. You actually never did work for the Bushes, 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:41.120 for either one of them. 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.000 No, they have no idea who I am. 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.280 They never retain to work on anything. 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:48.760 No, and that's why no. 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.400 One in their White House retained you. No one acting 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:52.839 as their representatives retain you. 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.880 Absolutely, there are people that I know, but I never 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:59.880 worked for George W. Book direct, directly or. 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:02.200 In so that's what I was wondering, and that's right, qut. 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.120 And this is really important for the listeners to hear this. 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.200 Don't believe the crap that you read on the web. 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.279 Don't believe social media. I know by the names that 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.400 you used. You said Papu Canon and not Ross Paro. 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.120 And the fact is I was much more engaged in 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.080 the Ross Paro campaign. But I know the article. I 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.480 know where this comes from. So I know the list 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.640 of people that you give. I've worked for so many. 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:30.000 Let's slow for one second. There's no ill intent on 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:32.359 my part in warming up your client list. It's not 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:34.680 to cherry pick any of them. It was more just 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:37.240 to convey to the audience that you have a long 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:40.520 track record doing this and you've represented notable people. And 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:42.839 if I've messed any of that up, I'm happy to 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:47.040 clarify it. But it wasn't meant to misrepresent your bona 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:48.279 fides or your CV. 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.880 But when it was put out initially, there was no 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.320 acknowledgment that I worked with a Biden Weight House directly 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:59.720 on COVID language. There is no discussion that I work 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:04.719 with the Clinton White House on global trade, specifically NAFTA. 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:09.760 There's no comment about sitting down with so many leaders 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:13.600 from across the globe, because I know where this comes from. 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.680 And I love the fact that this begins with this 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:23.680 conversation me too, because it tells the listener be careful 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.800 of what you read, be careful of what you see, 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:29.679 because it may not be accurate at all. 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.520 So is it inaccurate to describe you as a Republican pulster? 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:35.800 Do you feel you're a bipartisan pulster? 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:38.160 They've stopped calling me a Republican? 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.680 No, no, no, no, But what do you consider yourself? 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:45.040 I consider myself a nonpartisan by partisan means you work 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.360 for both sides, not partisan means you don't take sides. 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:52.680 I have relationships with the Republicans absolutely, and I was 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:56.520 a partisan polster ten years ago, twenty years ago, but 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.520 beginning with the Donald Trump election in twenty sixteen, I've 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:04.920 actually publicly eschewed partisanship and even the word itself. You 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.800 can say I'm a language guy. Even the word partisan itself, 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:12.240 it's not accurate for what I do because in the end, 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:15.040 it's not my job to represent Republicans or make them 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:18.160 look good. It's not my job to speak ill of Democrats. 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:21.480 It's my job to be honest and accurate to every 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:22.800 question you ask me. 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.000 So, in the interest of accuracy and the chronology, I 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:30.120 think we should have a new timestamp BT and AT, 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.640 you know, before Trump and after Trump. So the Frank 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:38.880 Lunce of the BT era was a partisan polster who 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:45.319 worked largely, perhaps almost exclusively, for Republicans. The Frank Lunce 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:49.520 of the AT period is spreading his net more broadly 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:52.160 and working for people he believes in. Is that accurate? 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:56.280 That is accurate, and it's not just domestically. We're doing 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:59.240 this interview with me in London, which shows you how 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.800 great technology is that you and I can communicate five 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:06.840 thousand miles apart from each other in real time. And 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:11.040 my perspective is much more global. Having traveled to I 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:15.319 will hit my fiftieth country this year. It does give 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.320 me a different perspective, not just as a pholster or 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.520 as a communicator, but as a human being. Now that 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:25.680 I've visited every continent except for Antarctica, it teaches me 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:28.600 that there is a different way of speaking, that there's 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.720 a different way of life, and that the priorities are 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.880 the things I take for granted as an American are 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.920 simply not the same as those from an Asian country 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:42.120 or an African country, for example, and that it makes 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:45.800 me not only more tolerant of other cultures and other societies, 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:49.360 but it makes me more curious to understand, to learn 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:52.400 about what they have to offer to a humankind on 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:53.479 a global scale. 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.240 Since we've invoked Trump already, I was going to get 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:58.040 to that a little later, but I think it could 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:00.080 also still be a useful departure point right now. Well, 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:03.920 what was the intervention in your worldview and in your 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.520 life as a pulser in a human being when Donald 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.760 Trump entered your mindscape? As I understand it, it actually 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:11.960 took a physical toll on you. You had a stroke 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.480 a few years ago. I've seen in some public statements 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:19.600 you attributed that in part to the stress philosophically and 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:24.480 emotionally and physically you experienced when Donald Trump ascended into 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:25.079 the White House. 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:28.400 I think that's fair. I think that's accurate. But go 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:32.520 back even further. I'm the person who interviewed Donald Trump 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.840 in Des Moines, Iowa, in twenty fifteen when Donald Trump 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:41.000 was condemning John McCain, and I intervened to say, wait 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.080 a minute, John McCain's a war hero, and Donald Trump 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:47.880 famously said, talking over me, he's not a war hero. 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:51.160 He was captured. I like the ones who weren't captured. 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.079 That was my interview. You hear me, but you don't 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.560 see me on camera. And from that moment on, I 0:10:57.679 --> 0:10:58.760 had a problem with him. 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:02.560 He rather than what what was the specific problem you 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:03.280 had with him? 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:08.280 I didn't think he told the truth. To mean nothing matters. No, 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:10.400 you're gonna use that word. I know. 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:12.600 I'm asking is did you consider him a liar? 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:15.760 I considered that he didn't tell the truth. 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:17.240 What's the difference? 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:19.200 A huge difference. 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:20.240 Explain that one. 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:25.040 If I call someone a liar, I'm immediately asking you 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.800 to judge me by that accusation. If I'm saying he 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:34.040 doesn't tell the truth, you're simply analyzing the statements and 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.200 the delivery of the person that we're focused on. I 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.720 don't want to be accusing someone of lying, because I 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.719 know that that causes people not to listen, causes them 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:47.199 to shut up. But if I say is he telling 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.840 the truth? If I turn it as a question, it 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.240 is much more likely that I will contemplate what I've said. 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.800 You are more likely to take what I say and 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.960 accept it because I'm not being accused a to him. 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.640 But I was just talking about your own decision. You 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.920 said you were turned off because you believed he wasn't 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.680 telling the truth. You were making your own subjective value 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:08.440 judgment about it. 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.880 Yes, I'm just not willing to use your language to 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:12.760 describe it now. 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.040 I was just series about how you parts the difference 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.079 between the two in terms of your own view of him. 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.360 But we can probably get stuck on that one forever now. 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.640 Actually, but here's the thing, Okay, I listen to every 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:29.640 word when a politician is speaking, when a business person 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:32.679 is speaking, when a cultural icon is speaking, I pay 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.760 attention to what they say. It's in listening to how 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:40.040 people formulate their statements and the words that they use. 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.600 And I used to just let it go when it 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.400 was about me. I would never correct someone. And now 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:49.840 I realize that on a podcast like this that it 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:54.240 is essential that the listeners hear the words that I 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:59.240 wish to speak, absolutely, because that is clarifying either my 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.600 story or my beliefs, or my principles, my. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.160 Priorities, your place in the world did go. 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:06.200 That's perfect. 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.680 Yeah, that is an ideal outcome. I hope that listeners 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.040 come up close to you and your place in the 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.400 world and how you see it, and I appreciate you 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.160 course correcting as we move along. So we've arrived at 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.120 this Trump moment. But this is such a rich subject 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.520 and let's not tie it all to Trump just yet. 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.040 Let's talk a little bit about the pre Trump era 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:27.440 in your life. I think you sort of enter polling 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.000 as a main part of your life around the early nineties, 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.080 more or less. And how was the world that you 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:39.280 entered then polling and messaging and then actualizing those things 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:43.360 and campaigns and strategy positions. How was that world different 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:44.600 than the one we're in right now. 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:49.160 Frank, Oh, that's good. That's a tough question to answer 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.200 because there's so many facets of it. And even in 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.440 my own life. I learned how to do survey research 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.160 in nineteen eighty when I was eighteen years old, and 0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.720 I was supposed from nineteen eighty till about nineteen ninety four. 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:05.440 And it was a breakfast that I have a new 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.880 Kingridge in April of ninety four, where he said to me, 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:12.680 gave me two pieces of advice. Pollsters are a dime 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:15.360 a dozen You can find a dozen of them in 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.920 the Republican Party. No big deal, nothing special. I want 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.920 you to be a wordsmith. I want you to use 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:27.440 polling to study how to communicate difficult principles and how 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.600 to explain the conservative philosophy in a way that we 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.400 win not for the next election, but for the next generation. 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:38.320 And I followed that. That was when I started focusing 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:41.040 on language. The other advice he gave me was learn 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.280 Spanish because it's going to become the most important subgroup 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.960 and no Republican polster really understands it. That one I 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.640 didn't do because guy, Frankly, I'm an idiot when it 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.760 comes to language. And my first big client in life 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.920 were people running for office in Puerto Rico, the governor, 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:01.000 the Resident Commissioner. Yet I couldn't speak the language. And 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.080 from that point on, I'm always trying to figure out 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.720 how to say it, how to communicate it, how to 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:12.200 show it, how to present it. Everything from my PowerPoint 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.720 slides to the videos that I create to the interviews 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:20.280 like this one. It's always trying to clarify and simplify 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:21.360 the language. 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.000 But come back to me different idea of what was 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:28.320 different than compared to now, what's the great change you've 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.560 witnessed over say, the last thirty years, give or take 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:31.920 a few. 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.040 The greatest change in polling is that people want to 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.960 know why not what so nobody is asking is the 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.760 direction of a country positive or negative? They want to 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.280 know why positive and why negative. They want to understand 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:51.680 the reaction that certain politicians have on the electorate, not 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.960 who they trust necessarily, but why they have trust or distrust. 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.560 What is the root cause of some of the challenges 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.920 we face. So just asking people what's the most important 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.760 issue in America today is irrelevant in twenty twenty three. 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:11.280 What is relevant is the root cause of that concern? 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.880 Is it economic anxiety? Is it loss of faith and 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:18.400 trust in the system? Do we now believe that democracy 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:24.200 or capitalism don't work. It's trying to understand the second degree, 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.720 the third degree of any issue, because in the end, 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.720 if we don't understand the root cause, we don't understand 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:31.440 how to fix it. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.320 You have always been attuned, though, to the idea of emotion, 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:40.760 the emotional quotient that underlies people's preferences and choices. I 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:45.200 think you've spoken very specifically and articulately about that over 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.080 the years. I have a feeling you're going to say 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.080 that that's also been pulled off of some weird spot 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.200 on the Internet, and it doesn't really reflect who you are. 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.920 But I bring it up not to zikatcha, but just 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.280 as an attempt to get at your statement of purpose 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:00.800 in terms of what you see the essence of I 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.119 think this is a an accurate quote. Eighty percent of 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.359 our life is emotion and only twenty percent is intellect. 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.120 I am much more interested in how you feel than 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.320 how you think, or another one along the same lines. 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:16.760 It's all emotion, but there's nothing wrong with emotion. When 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.560 we are in love, we are not rational. We are emotional. 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.760 My job is to look for the words that trigger 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:24.919 the emotion. We know that words and emotion together are 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:29.040 the most powerful force known to mankind. So explain to me. 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:32.240 Do you also think that that was a relatively novel 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:36.199 insight within the polling community, This idea of move it 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:40.520 beyond simply issue based polling and get at this emotional 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.080 motivator for voters. 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:46.480 Other people have done that long before me. What I 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.800 learned and where I'm different is to find the language 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:57.640 that best articulates or best connects to emotion, passion intensity. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.920 I know right now, for example, that there is probably 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:06.080 thirty percent of Americans, thirty percent that don't believe in 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:09.240 our electoral system, and I'm trying to figure out how 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:13.760 to speak to them because I believe that the right person, 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.639 the accurate person, won in twenty twenty. For example, I 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.640 believe that what happened on January sixth, twenty twenty one, 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:25.320 was a tragedy an embarrassment. I can't believe that some 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:29.919 people try to downplay the events of that day. I 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:34.640 need to understand what is triggering this level of anger 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:39.560 and more importantly, distrust. I can work with anger. I 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.879 can work with disappointment. I can work with fear. I 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.240 can work with anxiety, and when I say I can 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.040 work with it, I can understand it and craft a 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:53.800 language to address it. But I cannot do anything about mistrust. 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:58.240 I cannot do anything if the public believes that those 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:02.359 who are telling the truth are lying and the liars 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:05.760 are actually truth tellers. And that's the situation that we're 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.200 in right now. And the reason why I was so 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.080 eager to do this podcast is that that, to me, 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:15.480 is the single greatest disruption in American society. Today. It's 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:19.760 not economic, it's not financial, it's not even political. It's 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:23.359 the fact that there's so little in our lives that 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:27.560 we now trust, and that we believe that the institutions 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:31.080 and the people who run them that matter most are untruthful. 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.720 And if that's the case, our democracy is in jeopardy, 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:38.720 our economic freedom is in jeopardy. And I can't fix 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.200 it because I don't know how to instill trust when 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:42.919 it is lost. 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:45.800 Do you know this is actually a phenomenon that was 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.760 gaining traction before Trump even landed in the White House, 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:53.359 a fraying of trust in US institutions. I think it 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:57.359 accelerated around the financial crisis. Certainly a lot of the 0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:00.960 analysis of people's faith and institutions and the idea of 0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:05.840 public authority had taken noticeable downturns in the mid two 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.960 thousands and surveys compared to prior to that era. I 0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:10.960 would suggest or think that it had to do with 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.480 how devastating the financial crisis was for a lot of people, 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:17.840 And then I think it's accelerated since then. But one 0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:21.639 of the interesting constants that's gone along with that during 0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:23.800 that period and it remains so today, is that people 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:28.600 still trust their own personal network, they trust their family, 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:31.640 they trust their friends, they trust people they have direct 0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:34.560 contact with. And that's a hard thing to leverage in 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:37.480 terms of rebuilding trust for people. Is it has to 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:41.840 happen at this very granular local level. When we run 0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:44.040 campaigns that are national league, when we run companies that 0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:48.639 have national footprints. I think some of the solution involves 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:52.800 a lot of very granular direct contact among people, and 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:54.800 I think that that's going to be an ongoing challenge 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:57.520 for the political process. And this is also to me 0:20:57.840 --> 0:20:59.879 why it's so interesting to do an episode of polling, 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.520 because I think the accuracy of polls and their ability 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:08.359 to actually drive into people's needs in a broad based 0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:12.120 way and marry that understanding to personal interaction and then 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:16.199 to policy in order to get better civic result is 0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:18.160 the challenge in front of us all right now. 0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:20.800 It's one of the reasons why I do focus groups, 0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:23.760 and I stopped doing it for about a year after 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:29.159 January sixth because people were so rude and so vicious 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:30.760 and so mean to each other. 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.200 And occurring within the focus groups. 0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:36.199 You mean, within the focus groups. I'm about to publish 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:40.199 some of the worst ones. There were seven sessions that 0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:42.200 I did that were so awful. 0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:44.960 In that this is post January sixth, this is. 0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:48.439 Right around there, this is post election twenty twenty. That 0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:51.439 the group's never made air that from the beginning to 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:53.919 the end, people yelled at each other, they didn't listen, 0:21:53.960 --> 0:21:57.560 they didn't want to listen. They were accusatory and just mean. 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:00.600 And the various networks that I I did it for 0:22:01.680 --> 0:22:04.000 said to me, we can't put this on the air. 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:07.240 This is a I don't want to use the language. 0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:12.560 But rams would hit and no, and it was embarrassing 0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:15.080 to me, and I finally decided that now was the 0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.080 time to put it out. So if you're a listener 0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:20.240 to this program, just know if you type in my 0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:23.240 name and Straight Arrow News, you'll be able to see 0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:27.199 snippets of these sessions. I just warn you, it's going 0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:29.399 to break your heart and it's going to scare the 0:22:29.400 --> 0:22:31.639 hell out of you. Because this is the country that 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:32.399 we have become. 0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:35.240 Why was it important to you to publicize those focus 0:22:35.280 --> 0:22:36.119 groups gone wrong? 0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.760 Because my health is not that great, which I've acknowledged, 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.480 and because I'm trying to put out as much information 0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:47.879 and facts as I can to show people that we 0:22:48.040 --> 0:22:54.840 are dangerously close to coming apart, and I don't want 0:22:54.840 --> 0:22:58.840 to play the role of divider. I want to play 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:04.720 the role of truth teller so that we can consider 0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:07.600 a different approach to how we talk to each other, 0:23:07.920 --> 0:23:10.600 how we treat each other, and most importantly for the 0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:15.040 next generation, our commitment to civics and decency, so that 0:23:15.080 --> 0:23:18.159 this doesn't get any worse in an election cycle that 0:23:18.240 --> 0:23:20.639 I'm afraid is going to be the worst of modern times. 0:23:21.640 --> 0:23:24.560 Frank, we're going to take a break on that note, 0:23:24.720 --> 0:23:26.520 and we will come right back after we hear from 0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:36.399 one of our sponsors. We're back with Frank Luntz, a 0:23:36.440 --> 0:23:40.520 prominent polster and political strategist and always full of insights. 0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:44.919 Frank has been simultaneously educating me, correcting the record, and 0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:48.080 having a great conversation with me in the previous session. 0:23:48.119 --> 0:23:51.399 So we'll continue on that path. You know, I wanted 0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:54.159 to talk again about this epiphany you had. You know, 0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:56.480 I topped off the show talking about Joe Kennedy had 0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:59.320 this insight in which he famously said he wanted to 0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:02.920 sell his son John like a box of soap flakes, 0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:06.080 laundry detergent, and the rap on John Kennedy at the 0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.399 time was he hadn't paid his dues in the Senate, 0:24:08.680 --> 0:24:11.480 he didn't have a lot of experience, but the family's 0:24:11.520 --> 0:24:15.840 marketing prowess and money allowed for the celebrification, if that's 0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:19.040 the word, a celebrification of the presidency, and that that 0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:21.040 really launched us into an era when you could go 0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:24.480 above the party apparatus, go beyond the resume, and bring 0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:27.760 a candidate directly in front of voters if he or 0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.680 she was packaged the right way. We saw that obviously 0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:35.520 with Ronald Reagan, a formidably telligenic candidate, and then in 0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:39.239 the Trump era with social media, Trump went around all 0:24:39.280 --> 0:24:41.520 the gatekeepers. He was able to go to his supporters 0:24:41.560 --> 0:24:45.639 directly through social media, and he is the personification of 0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:48.880 a certain form of celebrity the United States. I think 0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:51.879 his celebrity was built on sand. He was the entrepreneurial 0:24:51.880 --> 0:24:54.159 guru from the masses, while in the real world he 0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:58.159 was a serial bankruptcy artist. Nonetheless, I think there is 0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:01.680 a strand you could tie from John CA Kennedy to 0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:05.160 Donald Trump in terms of the political process, and polling 0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:07.359 is so tied up in that right. Polling is an 0:25:07.440 --> 0:25:10.760 element of how you package the candidate. Maybe the core element. 0:25:11.440 --> 0:25:13.800 Have you had thoughts about any of that. I know 0:25:13.840 --> 0:25:16.240 you've said in various places you've tried to reckon with 0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.119 the life you led as upholster prior to Trump. We 0:25:19.160 --> 0:25:21.800 talked about that earlier and the life you're trying to lead. Now, 0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:24.399 tell me what you think of that long list of 0:25:24.440 --> 0:25:26.160 particular as I just put on your doorstep. 0:25:27.160 --> 0:25:29.959 It's an interesting list, and I would have stopped at 0:25:29.960 --> 0:25:33.000 Bill Clinton, Who's the one who taught me that there's 0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:36.679 a difference in how people hear you depending on words 0:25:36.680 --> 0:25:39.679 you use. It was Bill Clinton who first came up 0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:43.400 with the idea that we're going to have revenue enhancements. 0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.760 That's what we call them. Any normal human being would 0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:51.320 have called them tax increases, but that kills the popularity, 0:25:51.600 --> 0:25:55.720 so they're now revenue enhancements. I know. In nineteen ninety four, 0:25:56.440 --> 0:26:01.080 new gingridg focused on the Crime Bill to essentially ridiculed 0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:06.000 Democrats for supporting midnight basketball, dance, lessons for convicts, all 0:26:06.040 --> 0:26:10.159 sorts of programs that the public would hate. And then 0:26:10.200 --> 0:26:13.479 I saw how it was used George W. Bush versus 0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:17.160 Al Gore in two thousand. We've had a steady progression 0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.879 of candidates on both sides of the aisle that have 0:26:21.080 --> 0:26:24.880 used polling arguably to know what matters to the public, 0:26:25.040 --> 0:26:28.640 but in some ways to know how to manipulate that public. 0:26:29.200 --> 0:26:31.000 And that's one of the reasons why I got further 0:26:31.200 --> 0:26:35.639 and further and further away from politics, from elections, because 0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:36.920 I didn't want to be part of that. 0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:41.480 Because you felt that the polling process was corrupting both 0:26:41.880 --> 0:26:44.480 policymaking and the packaging of candidates. 0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.920 I thought it was making American politics way too negative. 0:26:48.840 --> 0:26:52.639 And the irony of that is, I'm now so pessimistic, 0:26:52.800 --> 0:26:58.280 I'm now so frightened of the future candidly, and I 0:26:58.320 --> 0:27:01.640 should have spoken up much earlier challenge this situation. That's 0:27:01.680 --> 0:27:04.760 probably my greatest regret of my career is that I 0:27:04.800 --> 0:27:08.200 saw some of these trends happening and I didn't speak up. 0:27:08.480 --> 0:27:10.119 Why Why didn't you speak up? 0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:15.000 I don't know. Because my friends were in politics, they 0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:17.480 were in business, and I don't want to make their 0:27:17.520 --> 0:27:18.879 lives any more difficult. 0:27:19.359 --> 0:27:21.639 Was it the paycheck? You were making a good living? 0:27:21.960 --> 0:27:23.680 Was that hard to walk away from. 0:27:23.640 --> 0:27:25.040 It's easy to walk away from it. 0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:26.680 Money does, so that wasn't a factor. 0:27:27.240 --> 0:27:29.600 Money is not a factor. Power is not a factor. 0:27:29.920 --> 0:27:32.960 Fame is not a factor. It's just simply easier to do. 0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:34.800 So, did you feel like you were part of a 0:27:34.840 --> 0:27:36.800 community you didn't want to leave. You mentioned that too, 0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:39.680 that your friends were in politics. I'm just interesting because 0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.600 at some point you did make a decision to step away, 0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.000 and that's an interesting process for anybody to go through. 0:27:45.680 --> 0:27:48.840 Yes, And I don't recommend it to anybody because people 0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:51.800 around you, your friends, will tell you do the right thing, 0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:55.600 and they're correct. But there is a cost to doing 0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:58.320 the right thing, to calling out people, particularly on your 0:27:58.359 --> 0:28:01.719 side of the aisle, particularly clients of yours. If you 0:28:01.760 --> 0:28:05.040 start to call out people who you are aligned with, 0:28:05.680 --> 0:28:10.080 allied with, even friends, guess what you pay a price, 0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:15.480 not financially, emotionally, personally, And at the time I didn't want. 0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:19.320 To pay that because you get exiled from the community. 0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:23.040 Because you find yourself at odds with your friends. You're 0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:26.200 the host of this show. Have you not called somebody 0:28:26.240 --> 0:28:29.960 out who you like very much on your podcast and 0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.119 then had to explain to them while you took them on, 0:28:32.640 --> 0:28:36.600 while you publicly criticize them. Because if you haven't, then 0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:38.880 you don't know what it's like to go through the process. 0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:41.640 And I did, and I took a whole lot of 0:28:41.720 --> 0:28:44.840 craft for it, and there were times when I regretted it, 0:28:45.360 --> 0:28:49.160 But after three years now of having done it, I'm 0:28:49.200 --> 0:28:51.400 glad I did. I just wish I'd done it sooner. 0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:54.840 What was the first glimmer you've got of that? And again, 0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:58.400 let's talk about BT Before Trump, was there a moment 0:28:58.440 --> 0:29:00.720 where you felt like your work as a pulser was 0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:03.880 going sideways, that it wasn't contributing to the world in 0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:04.920 the way that you wanted it to. 0:29:05.560 --> 0:29:09.120 Absolutely, and that's the issue of climate change, the work 0:29:09.160 --> 0:29:13.560 that I did that media people still cite today still 0:29:13.720 --> 0:29:18.160 after twenty three years. I began my polling as an 0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:22.320 opponent of the climate issue. I raised questions about the science. 0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:26.760 I tried to understand. I challenged those who were so 0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:29.960 absolutely convinced that it was happening. And this is back 0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:32.760 in two thousand and two thousand and one, and to 0:29:32.800 --> 0:29:36.800 this day there are still people who pretend as though 0:29:36.960 --> 0:29:39.640 I still feel this way, as a way to attack. 0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:41.880 Me, when in fact you later testified in front of 0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:44.520 Congress that you thought you were wrong in the early 0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:48.320 two thousands, your position on climate Chang was wrong, and 0:29:48.360 --> 0:29:50.560 that you wouldn't say the same things currently that you 0:29:50.560 --> 0:29:51.480 said about it then. 0:29:52.200 --> 0:29:54.760 Exactly, And that, by the way, that testimony was five 0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:55.400 years ago. 0:29:56.080 --> 0:29:58.120 You brought up climate change at a moment when you 0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:01.560 started to feel like your work is Polster was going sideways. 0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:05.400 What about your work at that time made you uncomfortable 0:30:05.400 --> 0:30:06.040 about polling? 0:30:07.200 --> 0:30:11.680 Because I was learning that I was wrong and the 0:30:11.720 --> 0:30:15.520 work that i'd done was really, really good. And now 0:30:15.640 --> 0:30:18.320 it's the work that I've done since then. And I'm 0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:23.160 going to give you two great examples. The community that 0:30:23.320 --> 0:30:26.600 is concerned about climate that believes it's a crisis or 0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:30.400 climate chaos, however you want to communicate it, continues to 0:30:30.520 --> 0:30:34.520 use the word sustainability, that we need a sustainable environment. 0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:38.880 The problem with sustainability is that it's status quo. So 0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:42.360 when I started to look at the climate science and 0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:45.240 realize that I made a mistake, I wanted to come 0:30:45.320 --> 0:30:47.520 up with language that I would address the things that 0:30:47.680 --> 0:30:52.440 I had written about. And so I realized that being cleaner, safer, 0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:57.800 healthier was better than being sustainable, because sustainability is the 0:30:57.840 --> 0:31:02.520 status quote. Cleaner, safer, healthier means better. Trying to get 0:31:02.560 --> 0:31:06.600 the climate community to use better language is just about impossible. 0:31:07.320 --> 0:31:11.760 A second example is that the public absolutely cares about 0:31:11.760 --> 0:31:16.680 the next generation, cares about their children. To focus on 0:31:16.760 --> 0:31:20.040 how this climate issue is going to affect them is 0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:24.800 the most powerful way to reach the public. But the 0:31:24.880 --> 0:31:28.920 same climate activists want to talk about what it's doing 0:31:28.960 --> 0:31:33.120 to the planet. The planet is too big. Their children 0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:35.920 is just the right focal point. 0:31:36.000 --> 0:31:38.440 So there's some frank consulting work going on right there. 0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:40.880 If you want to win the climate change battle, focus 0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:43.600 on its impact on the people you love, and not 0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:46.360 a big, amorphous planet that you can't get your arms around. 0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:48.480 You can get your arms around your kid, you can't 0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:51.640 get your arms around the planet exactly. You can use 0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:54.680 that in your campaign, Frank, I'll let you so. Also, 0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:56.360 to get back to just correcting the record on this, 0:31:56.400 --> 0:31:59.280 that whole climate change work during a period when people 0:31:59.320 --> 0:32:01.640 were calling it lie warming, and you offered advice by 0:32:01.640 --> 0:32:04.560 calling it climate change instead, none of that was in 0:32:04.560 --> 0:32:07.080 the service of the Bush administration. I must have had 0:32:07.080 --> 0:32:08.440 that wrong when I brought that up earlier. 0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:11.400 It's been written about, so I'm not surprised that you 0:32:11.520 --> 0:32:17.479 said it. I never not once met George W. Bush 0:32:17.680 --> 0:32:20.360 in the White House and anythings that he did, and 0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:23.400 he actually shook his hand at a Republican events. He 0:32:23.440 --> 0:32:25.920 had no idea who I was. He never ad my stuff. 0:32:26.640 --> 0:32:29.280 I was doing this at the time for the business community. 0:32:29.800 --> 0:32:32.440 But that isn't sexy enough. That doesn't sell. 0:32:32.800 --> 0:32:34.840 And no one from the White House, no one representing 0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:39.080 the Bushes had retained your services. No, okay, No, Well, 0:32:39.120 --> 0:32:41.200 that's good for people to know that, and we should 0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:43.160 try to excize that from the public record, and we 0:32:43.160 --> 0:32:46.560 can do that now through this show forever on this 0:32:46.680 --> 0:32:49.920 issue of Trump's intervention in your worldview and how it 0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:52.480 was such an eye opener for you, and you said 0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:54.320 earlier in the top of the show that it was 0:32:54.360 --> 0:32:57.240 because he didn't tell the truth and you lost faith 0:32:57.280 --> 0:32:59.760 in him as a political actor and a person. I 0:32:59.760 --> 0:33:03.960 guess out of that. One of the curious phenomenons watching 0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:06.720 right now is that trump Ism and the uses and 0:33:06.760 --> 0:33:11.480 abuses of propaganda and social division I think pervades a 0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:15.200 lot of the Republican messaging right now. When I look 0:33:15.240 --> 0:33:18.000 at what I think are some of the foundations going 0:33:18.040 --> 0:33:22.200 into twenty twenty four of Republican messaging, I look at 0:33:22.480 --> 0:33:25.520 the backlash against immigration, I look at some of the 0:33:25.560 --> 0:33:31.440 anti woke statements, and obviously those pushes touch on real things. 0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:34.320 People have concerns about the border. People have real concerns 0:33:34.320 --> 0:33:37.760 about an unmanaged border. People are concerned that perhaps college 0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:42.960 curriculums are getting overtaken by people who have ideology in 0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:45.400 the front of their minds rather than learning. But as 0:33:45.400 --> 0:33:49.160 to whether or not either of these things amount to 0:33:49.200 --> 0:33:52.360 the kind of a crisis, the candidates, like RHN de Stantists, 0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:56.320 for example, pedal constantly in their messaging. I think it's 0:33:56.360 --> 0:33:59.840 an interesting referendum around whether or not the GOP right 0:33:59.840 --> 0:34:02.960 now now has the right messages lined up going into 0:34:02.960 --> 0:34:05.120 twenty twenty four. And I was wondering what you thought 0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:05.480 about that. 0:34:06.400 --> 0:34:08.719 So allow me to tell you a story about an 0:34:08.760 --> 0:34:12.840 interaction with Trump that had such an impact on me, 0:34:13.000 --> 0:34:16.319 and I've not spoken about it until now. I was 0:34:16.400 --> 0:34:18.680 fortunate enough to be invited to write on Air Force 0:34:18.760 --> 0:34:22.239 one between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Trump is doing 0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:25.480 a speech. So being sat in the very back of 0:34:25.520 --> 0:34:27.759 the plane, the plane takes off, they come and said 0:34:27.840 --> 0:34:30.200 for me. I brought to the front of the plane 0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:34.160 and there's the President sits me down. It's just myself 0:34:34.800 --> 0:34:37.719 the president, the Republican leader at the time, House Leader 0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:41.120 Kevin McCarthy, and we begin to have a conversation about 0:34:41.160 --> 0:34:43.879 language and messaging, and he says to me, what would 0:34:43.920 --> 0:34:45.920 you tell me? What have you heard out there? And 0:34:46.000 --> 0:34:49.320 I said, you're trying to get a border wall built. 0:34:49.880 --> 0:34:52.400 But their Democrats are not going to build a wall. 0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:57.960 They will build a security barrier. They will build something 0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:01.880 that makes it more difficult for people to come across illegally, 0:35:02.360 --> 0:35:04.759 but they won't build a wall. So Trump hears this 0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:08.920 and his response to me is, but Frank, I've been 0:35:08.920 --> 0:35:12.280 saying build a wall, build a wall. All my supporters 0:35:12.400 --> 0:35:14.839 know that chance, they chanted at every event I do. 0:35:15.960 --> 0:35:20.120 That's a horrible chance. Build the security barrier, build the 0:35:20.280 --> 0:35:22.399 security And I said, sir, that's not what I mean. 0:35:23.400 --> 0:35:28.080 In Washington as policy called it a security barrier, and 0:35:28.120 --> 0:35:30.600 then in your rallies, you can call it a wall. 0:35:31.040 --> 0:35:33.399 So he doesn't like that answer, so he calls Jared 0:35:33.480 --> 0:35:36.680 Kushner to come in first. Then he calls Steven Miller 0:35:36.719 --> 0:35:39.960 to come in, and then he says, hey, guys, Frank says, 0:35:40.160 --> 0:35:43.160 we got a new chance, build a security barrier. And 0:35:43.200 --> 0:35:45.480 I said, sir, that is not what I mean, and 0:35:45.520 --> 0:35:50.319 I was genuinely angry. So we get to Vegas, it's 0:35:50.320 --> 0:35:53.000 a very short flight. He does this thing. I'm invited 0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:55.520 to come back to Washington, d C. Because it's where 0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:59.640 I'm heading anyway, and once again we get into the 0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:03.719 same conversations. I'm about to acknowledge something I've never admitted 0:36:03.800 --> 0:36:07.960 before until now. I was so agitated that he was 0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:12.200 making fun of me, that he was cheapening the advice, 0:36:12.239 --> 0:36:15.480 that he was politicizing something that I thought was very 0:36:15.480 --> 0:36:19.080 important to policy, that the only way that I could 0:36:19.120 --> 0:36:22.200 respond is simply to close my eyes and fall asleep. 0:36:22.680 --> 0:36:25.400 So I must be the first person ever the Jews 0:36:25.440 --> 0:36:28.880 spoken to who fell asleep on Air Force one in 0:36:28.960 --> 0:36:31.880 front of the president. It was the way that I 0:36:31.920 --> 0:36:36.040 took myself out of the conversation. Your point is well taken. 0:36:36.400 --> 0:36:39.720 The Republican Party used to be the party of Ronald Reagan. 0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:45.680 The eleventh commandment shall not criticize another Republican. Now that's 0:36:45.719 --> 0:36:48.960 the focus of most Republicans. That the focus of primaries. 0:36:49.000 --> 0:36:51.400 That's all you see in these presidents of the debates 0:36:51.680 --> 0:36:54.840 is candidates feeding up on each other instead of focusing 0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:57.839 on what's wrong with the Democrats. They're focusing on what's 0:36:57.880 --> 0:37:01.440 wrong with each other, their personal attack, their visious attacks. 0:37:01.760 --> 0:37:06.520 And I credit the origination of that to Donald Trump 0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:10.360 in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and now it's become 0:37:10.440 --> 0:37:12.280 commonplace for the Republican Party. 0:37:13.280 --> 0:37:16.800 So that's internessine warfare that would have happened in the past. 0:37:17.360 --> 0:37:20.360 What about the message that's going outside of the party 0:37:20.400 --> 0:37:24.239 to voters. How do you see that situated strategically within 0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:25.359 the GOP right now? 0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:29.319 It's the exact opposite of where I came to politics. 0:37:29.880 --> 0:37:34.240 Ronald Reagan. His language was about its morning in America. 0:37:34.280 --> 0:37:38.320 His language was about doesn't matter who we are, but 0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:41.120 where we came from. What matters is where we're going. 0:37:41.560 --> 0:37:44.880 So his was a future focused and an uplifting message. 0:37:45.120 --> 0:37:48.640 And Donald Trump is exactly the opposite. He even uses 0:37:48.680 --> 0:37:52.400 the word revenge, and it's all about the kind of 0:37:52.480 --> 0:37:55.440 politics of having a gripe. There's a word for it. 0:37:55.480 --> 0:37:58.600 I can't come up with it right now, but it's resentment. 0:37:58.680 --> 0:38:01.520 It's the politics of resents, and it's the politics of 0:38:01.520 --> 0:38:04.400 getting even, and I don't think that's healthy for a country. 0:38:04.440 --> 0:38:07.000 I think we've seen the impact of that. He's not 0:38:07.120 --> 0:38:10.440 alone I believe the Democrats do it as well, but clearly, 0:38:10.480 --> 0:38:13.240 with social media at an all time high in terms 0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:18.440 of impact, we now get our information to affirm us 0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:23.080 rather than to inform us, and that's where the politics 0:38:23.080 --> 0:38:26.360 of resentment comes in, and I think that we're now 0:38:26.440 --> 0:38:30.600 in danger of losing the ability to talk to each 0:38:30.640 --> 0:38:31.880 other as a result. 0:38:32.120 --> 0:38:34.840 The conundrum in that, too, Frank, is that the politics 0:38:34.840 --> 0:38:38.320 of resentment have proven to be an effective path to power, 0:38:39.040 --> 0:38:43.799 even if they create problematic results divisions within society, a 0:38:43.880 --> 0:38:48.840 lack of policy. As a power acquisition strategy, it's worked, 0:38:48.920 --> 0:38:51.400 and Trump demonstrated that in spades, which is why I 0:38:51.400 --> 0:38:53.719 think you have some of these Trump light candidates like 0:38:54.360 --> 0:38:58.560 Ramaswami or the Sciantists trying to walk in his shoes 0:38:58.600 --> 0:38:59.680 without his charisma. 0:39:00.400 --> 0:39:02.280 I want to take the restraint to that just before 0:39:02.320 --> 0:39:06.120 the break, yep, which is that I agree with that, 0:39:06.280 --> 0:39:09.040 and it's why over the last twelve months I've started 0:39:09.040 --> 0:39:12.360 to say to people and this came after the events 0:39:12.360 --> 0:39:15.040 of January sixth, twenty twenty one, so it's only within 0:39:15.080 --> 0:39:19.440 the last really two years that there's some things that 0:39:19.520 --> 0:39:22.759 are more important than the next election that you can 0:39:22.920 --> 0:39:27.400 absolutely win votes win seats and maybe even win an election, 0:39:28.520 --> 0:39:33.399 do the politics of resentment and woke, but you will 0:39:33.440 --> 0:39:38.239 be very sorry about the country you have because you 0:39:38.280 --> 0:39:41.840 may win that election, but you're lost in an entire generation. 0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:48.000 And I'm now telling people overtly publicly that be very 0:39:48.040 --> 0:39:52.120 careful about what you say to get elected, because it'll 0:39:52.120 --> 0:39:54.560 come back to haunt you after the election. 0:39:55.719 --> 0:39:57.319 On that note, I'm going to take a break, Brank, 0:39:57.360 --> 0:40:04.920 and we'll come right back. We're back with Frank, once 0:40:05.040 --> 0:40:08.279 a prominent polster, an observer of the political scene both 0:40:08.280 --> 0:40:12.160 in the US and overseas. Frank, in the prior segment, 0:40:12.239 --> 0:40:14.680 we were talking about where the GOP is with its 0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:17.960 messaging in the wake of trump Ism. With trump Ism 0:40:18.000 --> 0:40:20.960 still very present, tell me a little bit about how 0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:24.759 you see democratic messaging right now, how the Biden White 0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:26.839 House is playing this. One of the things that's left 0:40:26.880 --> 0:40:29.400 out at me and all of this is that the 0:40:29.400 --> 0:40:32.440 Biden White House has struggled mightily to get credit for 0:40:32.520 --> 0:40:35.880 the economy, for GDP growth and job growth that's occurred 0:40:35.920 --> 0:40:38.920 since he assumed office. But when you look at the polling, 0:40:39.440 --> 0:40:42.719 that's getting very little traction. That's curious to me, and 0:40:42.760 --> 0:40:45.120 I'm also interested in any other thoughts you have about 0:40:45.400 --> 0:40:47.319 the Democratic Party's messaging right now. 0:40:47.920 --> 0:40:52.000 Well, the public blames the Biden administration for inflation. Whether 0:40:52.080 --> 0:40:56.759 or not that's legitimate, that's a question for economists. But 0:40:56.880 --> 0:41:00.440 when inflation started to pick up, his exact word in 0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:05.600 response is that inflation is transitory. Tell that to someone 0:41:05.840 --> 0:41:09.160 who lives paycheck to paycheck. Tell that to the twenty 0:41:09.200 --> 0:41:12.520 three percent of Americans that literally don't know if they're 0:41:12.520 --> 0:41:14.480 going to be able to pay their bills at the 0:41:14.600 --> 0:41:17.080 end of the week. And they felt that the administration 0:41:17.200 --> 0:41:19.759 paid no attention to it. And in fact, we went 0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:23.320 through our first Thanksgiving and our first Christmas when people 0:41:23.320 --> 0:41:25.640 couldnot afford to buy the dinners, they could not afford 0:41:25.719 --> 0:41:29.200 to travel because food prices were high, gas prices were high, 0:41:29.520 --> 0:41:34.040 insurance prices went up, housing prices, want everything, And there 0:41:34.080 --> 0:41:36.719 was no sense of understanding from the White House for 0:41:36.880 --> 0:41:41.440 months as this went forward. So that was part of it. 0:41:41.600 --> 0:41:44.480 And the other part of it is the president offered 0:41:45.080 --> 0:41:49.440 to be postpartisan. He actually ran as a and I 0:41:49.520 --> 0:41:52.680 quote a uniter, but for the first year of his 0:41:52.760 --> 0:41:56.920 administration there was nothing about unity. He rarely met with 0:41:57.080 --> 0:42:00.440 the Republican leaders of Congress. He rarely gave aged in 0:42:00.520 --> 0:42:04.719 any kind of constructive conversation at a time when we 0:42:04.880 --> 0:42:08.239 desperately needed Democrats Republicans to be in the same room 0:42:08.560 --> 0:42:11.920 at the same time hammering out their differences. Because in 0:42:11.960 --> 0:42:15.560 the end, we're a fifty to fifty country. You ask 0:42:15.600 --> 0:42:18.640 people to identify themselves as a Republican or Democrat, it's 0:42:18.760 --> 0:42:23.240 almost dead. Even so, we have to give people the voice. 0:42:24.440 --> 0:42:28.239 We have to recognize that the majority should not run 0:42:28.360 --> 0:42:31.799 rough shot over the minority in Congress or the White 0:42:31.800 --> 0:42:35.600 House versus Congress. And that did not happen. And now 0:42:35.680 --> 0:42:38.600 the reason why Biden isn't getting credits has nothing to 0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:41.560 do with his policy and everything to do with his age. 0:42:41.840 --> 0:42:44.120 And I know that listeners right now just by saying 0:42:44.160 --> 0:42:47.799 that their hands explode. But all you have to do 0:42:47.880 --> 0:42:51.600 is look at the police. Joe Biden is old, and 0:42:51.640 --> 0:42:54.680 he's asking us to vote for him, not as an 0:42:54.680 --> 0:42:57.719 eighty one year old, He's asking us to vote for 0:42:57.800 --> 0:43:00.480 him as an eighty six year old. He would be 0:43:00.560 --> 0:43:03.279 eighty six at the end of his term. So the 0:43:03.320 --> 0:43:06.080 public is looking at him and they say, thank you 0:43:07.000 --> 0:43:10.960 for the Chips Act, thank you for fixing infrastructure, thank 0:43:11.000 --> 0:43:15.400 you for making these investments, thank you for writing the ship, 0:43:15.480 --> 0:43:19.479 for adding some stability. But sir, it's time to go, 0:43:20.280 --> 0:43:22.480 and he's not listening to them, and the members of 0:43:22.520 --> 0:43:28.640 Congress are certainly not engaged. They sound so political, so partisan, 0:43:29.080 --> 0:43:33.560 so angry, that there's no sense of You mentioned early 0:43:33.640 --> 0:43:37.960 in this program, JFK I brought up Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. 0:43:38.400 --> 0:43:42.200 These are three Democratic leaders who understood that you had 0:43:42.239 --> 0:43:46.520 to focus on hope and opportunity rather than anger and despair. 0:43:47.760 --> 0:43:51.360 So I'm very critical of both political parties for missing 0:43:51.920 --> 0:43:57.960 a special moment to reignite our faith in the future 0:43:58.280 --> 0:44:02.239 and to reconnect us both to our governing institutions and 0:44:02.280 --> 0:44:04.520 the people who run them. They're both failing. 0:44:05.120 --> 0:44:08.880 So you've identified Biden's age and inflation as two of 0:44:08.880 --> 0:44:12.400 the things undercutting his ability to reposition himself. Is that 0:44:12.520 --> 0:44:15.600 something that polling and messaging can cure. 0:44:17.000 --> 0:44:21.120 Well, it's interesting because Jeffrey Katzenberg, who I'm so eager 0:44:21.200 --> 0:44:26.600 to meet. He's a Hollywood mogul, producer, very active in 0:44:26.760 --> 0:44:29.839 entertainment and very successful, but he ought to stay out 0:44:29.840 --> 0:44:32.839 of politics because he's encouraging Joe Biden to lean into 0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:36.600 the age, to say, I've got the experience. He's telling 0:44:36.680 --> 0:44:40.360 Joe Biden to promote the fact that he's old not 0:44:40.480 --> 0:44:44.440 to use that language, and he doesn't understand that the 0:44:44.480 --> 0:44:48.160 American people do not want a president in their eighties. 0:44:48.800 --> 0:44:51.960 Democrats, I would point out that if Donald Trump gets elected, 0:44:51.960 --> 0:44:55.120 he'd be eighty one at the end of his first term, 0:44:55.480 --> 0:44:58.960 so it's interesting the second term, well, right at the 0:44:59.040 --> 0:45:01.600 end of the second term. That was just wishful thinking 0:45:01.680 --> 0:45:04.960 on my part. So the age problem doesn't accrue to 0:45:05.000 --> 0:45:07.640 Donald Trump in the way that it accrues to Biden, 0:45:08.320 --> 0:45:10.880 So it's not simply a factor of chronology. Frank, I 0:45:10.880 --> 0:45:14.120 think that Biden doesn't present physically in the same way 0:45:14.160 --> 0:45:16.880 that Trump does on the campaign trail, you know, the 0:45:16.920 --> 0:45:20.880 way each of them articulates and carries themselves. I think 0:45:21.120 --> 0:45:24.280 there's a visible quotient with Biden, isn't there with Trump 0:45:24.400 --> 0:45:28.400 just yet? Though Trump's become notably more mushmouth and notably 0:45:28.440 --> 0:45:31.680 more unhinged in his tour right now, I do think 0:45:31.760 --> 0:45:34.919 it's bonkers that anyone would think that Donald Trump would 0:45:34.920 --> 0:45:37.280 be a more reliable steward of the ship of State 0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:42.080 than Joe Bidenful. 0:45:40.920 --> 0:45:43.680 Be careful your partisanship is showing. 0:45:44.200 --> 0:45:46.840 No, it's not my partisanship. It's just my rational desire 0:45:47.000 --> 0:45:50.440 to have adults in the room making decisions as opposed 0:45:50.480 --> 0:45:51.920 to little kids on pogo sticks. 0:45:52.680 --> 0:45:55.359 By the way, maybe give you the best example. Here's 0:45:55.400 --> 0:46:00.440 another example of language. Your comments, and I know how 0:46:00.480 --> 0:46:03.520 you feel, and there are tens of millions of people 0:46:03.520 --> 0:46:05.279 who agree with you and they want to get in 0:46:05.280 --> 0:46:08.280 that dig. But that's not how you succeed. The phrase 0:46:08.320 --> 0:46:15.560 you use. We need leaders who are reasonable, sensible, and responsible. Reasonable, sensible, 0:46:15.640 --> 0:46:19.440 responsible is far better than children on pogo sticks totally. 0:46:19.440 --> 0:46:21.719 But I'm not running for office, Frank, I'm just in. 0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:23.240 A jar hosting podcast. 0:46:23.280 --> 0:46:25.800 I'm hosting a podcast, and I really do want leaders 0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:33.640 who are responsible in reason, intelligent, reasonable, aren't bouncing around 0:46:33.640 --> 0:46:35.640 on pogo sticks either. I would like it all as 0:46:35.680 --> 0:46:39.719 one package. Tell me. We've had some noticeable crackups and 0:46:39.800 --> 0:46:44.200 polling in this recent say Trump cycle, right like the 0:46:44.320 --> 0:46:48.120 poles didn't indicate that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. The 0:46:48.200 --> 0:46:50.879 twenty twenty poles suggested there might be a blue wave, 0:46:50.960 --> 0:46:53.600 it didn't occur. The twenty twenty two poles suggested to 0:46:53.680 --> 0:46:56.359 be a red wave that didn't occur. You know, we've 0:46:56.360 --> 0:46:59.360 talked a lot about the emotional side of campaigning, but 0:46:59.480 --> 0:47:03.040 on the day to drive inside on the statistical side 0:47:03.040 --> 0:47:06.200 and the analytical side of polling. Do you think this 0:47:06.320 --> 0:47:08.040 is just power for the course, Sometimes you get it 0:47:08.080 --> 0:47:10.560 wrong because there are margins of errors and people interpret 0:47:10.560 --> 0:47:13.200 the data in different ways. Or do you think something's 0:47:13.239 --> 0:47:15.840 gone off in terms of the methodology around polling. 0:47:16.719 --> 0:47:19.960 I actually think the latter, And this is why I 0:47:20.000 --> 0:47:24.320 say to other pollsters in my profession, stop making projections, 0:47:24.760 --> 0:47:29.160 because every time you do, you embarrass yourself. Twenty sixteen, 0:47:29.200 --> 0:47:31.840 the problem there was not people lying to the pollsters. 0:47:32.280 --> 0:47:35.640 It was that some people refused to cooperate. And I 0:47:35.760 --> 0:47:40.000 ran into this on election night. I have always trusted 0:47:40.040 --> 0:47:44.239 the exit polls because in my lifetime they were right 0:47:44.320 --> 0:47:47.279 better than ninety five percent of the time. If the 0:47:47.360 --> 0:47:51.280 exit polls showed a candidate winning, let's say you thirty 0:47:51.280 --> 0:47:54.359 three centate races, the exit polls were right thirty two 0:47:54.400 --> 0:47:58.240 out of thirty three times. Every time in twenty sixteen 0:47:58.280 --> 0:48:00.960 they were wrong. And the reason why, it's not that 0:48:01.000 --> 0:48:03.840 people said they voted for the Democrat. It's that Trump 0:48:04.000 --> 0:48:07.799 voters refused to participate they thought the exit polls were 0:48:07.840 --> 0:48:10.799 part of the conspiracy, were part of the New York 0:48:10.840 --> 0:48:14.480 Times and CNN and other institutions who they did not 0:48:14.719 --> 0:48:19.000 like trying to control the election outcome. So Trump voters 0:48:19.000 --> 0:48:22.400 would push past an exit pollster and go to the 0:48:22.440 --> 0:48:25.480 parking lot and drive home. And because they have to 0:48:25.520 --> 0:48:29.719 interview every tenth person or every fifteenth person, they would 0:48:29.719 --> 0:48:32.160 then talk to the next person who came out, and 0:48:32.239 --> 0:48:34.719 it was fifty to fifty whether that was Clinton or 0:48:34.760 --> 0:48:38.440 whether that was Trump. Enough Trump people did not participate 0:48:38.520 --> 0:48:41.960 that it biased the results by about three percent. Well 0:48:42.000 --> 0:48:46.200 guess what. Three percent wasn't enough to allow the Democrats 0:48:46.200 --> 0:48:48.120 to look like they were winning control of the Senate, 0:48:48.600 --> 0:48:50.759 to make it look like the Democrats were going to 0:48:50.760 --> 0:48:53.640 have a good night. And we realized by about nine 0:48:53.680 --> 0:48:58.279 pm that evening that the exit polls were wrong. But 0:48:58.360 --> 0:49:02.720 I emphasize it, it's not because people lie, it's because 0:49:02.800 --> 0:49:06.520 they don't participate. The same thing happened in twenty twenty. 0:49:06.680 --> 0:49:10.400 I remember ABC News had a survey in Wisconsin that 0:49:10.440 --> 0:49:14.040 had Trump losing by some ridiculous number, and it was 0:49:14.080 --> 0:49:17.480 an embarrassment. All the polls in certain states were off. 0:49:18.040 --> 0:49:21.160 And that's because they were trying to overcompensate for what 0:49:21.239 --> 0:49:26.120 happened in twenty sixteen. Use polling to understand why people 0:49:26.160 --> 0:49:29.839 think the way they do. Use polling almost as an 0:49:30.080 --> 0:49:35.080 X ray, to a diagnostic of what's right and what's wrong, 0:49:35.200 --> 0:49:38.440 whether in a business or politics or some sort of 0:49:38.480 --> 0:49:42.640 social issue. But stop making guesses about the future, because 0:49:42.640 --> 0:49:43.920 you're going to get it wrong. 0:49:44.480 --> 0:49:47.360 In that landscape. Do you think any of the current 0:49:47.400 --> 0:49:50.920 polling around Trump. He has double digit leads within the 0:49:50.960 --> 0:49:53.759 Republican field, and he and Biden are polling more or 0:49:53.840 --> 0:49:57.279 less even, and it had to head national matchup. Do 0:49:57.360 --> 0:50:00.920 you have any observations about the qu of that polling 0:50:01.000 --> 0:50:01.399 right now? 0:50:02.400 --> 0:50:05.080 I don't trust the outlying poll There's one survey that 0:50:05.080 --> 0:50:07.880 has Trump beating Bien by ten points. I don't believe it. 0:50:08.800 --> 0:50:11.920 I tend to use the real Clear Politics average of 0:50:12.040 --> 0:50:15.799 polls because that gets rid of the outliers that are 0:50:15.840 --> 0:50:19.280 too democratic and to Republican. I think for the most 0:50:19.320 --> 0:50:23.560 part that real clear average is what will happen. But 0:50:23.640 --> 0:50:27.839 I emphasize to the listener that we don't elect our 0:50:27.880 --> 0:50:31.800 president by popular vote. We elect them by electoral college, 0:50:32.320 --> 0:50:34.520 and if you win the right votes in the right 0:50:34.600 --> 0:50:39.000 states that can allow you to lose the popular vote 0:50:39.040 --> 0:50:43.319 by one, two or even three percent. Hillary Clinton got 0:50:43.480 --> 0:50:46.880 millions of votes more than Donald Trump in twenty sixteen, 0:50:47.000 --> 0:50:53.080 so the polling was actually rather accurate. It just didn't 0:50:53.120 --> 0:50:56.000 record it in those individual states, and the same thing 0:50:56.000 --> 0:50:57.839 could happen again in twenty twenty four. 0:50:58.640 --> 0:51:00.640 I always like to ask people at the end of 0:51:00.640 --> 0:51:03.760 the show what they've learned, you know, what their own 0:51:03.920 --> 0:51:07.960 educational moment was. What have you learned about polling and 0:51:08.080 --> 0:51:11.240 messaging in the Trump era that you didn't know before. 0:51:12.600 --> 0:51:16.440 I teach all across the globe, and my students teach 0:51:16.520 --> 0:51:19.720 me and explain to me the results of the polling 0:51:19.760 --> 0:51:23.600 that I do across the globe. My African students the 0:51:23.640 --> 0:51:28.359 African Leadership University taught me that we have completely neglected 0:51:28.440 --> 0:51:34.279 an entire continent, the kindest, warmest, most hopeful people on 0:51:34.320 --> 0:51:37.320 the face of the earth, and the West has ignored 0:51:37.360 --> 0:51:41.480 them or forgotten them. I've learned from my students at 0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:46.520 West Point about responsibility and service and civility and decency, 0:51:47.400 --> 0:51:51.000 and that if they can do it at the military academies, 0:51:51.239 --> 0:51:54.520 why can't the rest of America do it. I've learned 0:51:54.520 --> 0:51:59.120 from my students at Raleigh College in the UK that 0:51:59.360 --> 0:52:03.000 education can work. You don't have to do woke, you 0:52:03.000 --> 0:52:07.000 don't have to do cancel culture, That students can feel 0:52:07.080 --> 0:52:11.440 safe to articulate an opposing point of view and professors 0:52:11.560 --> 0:52:14.719 not only don't punish them, but they actually welcome it 0:52:15.040 --> 0:52:19.200 in a responsible fashion. I've learned from my students at 0:52:19.480 --> 0:52:24.520 USC that so much of what's being taught in high 0:52:24.560 --> 0:52:28.960 schools is not being remembered in college, and that if 0:52:28.960 --> 0:52:32.120 you allow students to write people off because you disagree 0:52:32.160 --> 0:52:36.880 with them, or you have something against a position they stand, 0:52:37.360 --> 0:52:41.000 then you're not hearing every point of view. My students 0:52:41.080 --> 0:52:44.880 teach me that I have to listen, I have to explore, 0:52:45.360 --> 0:52:49.759 I have to ask, and never ever ever be satisfied 0:52:49.760 --> 0:52:52.480 with the first answer you get, because there's a reason 0:52:52.600 --> 0:52:56.359 behind that and a reason behind that reason. And it's 0:52:56.480 --> 0:52:58.920 like the peeling of an onion. If you can get 0:52:58.960 --> 0:53:03.480 to the center, may be painful, it may make your cry, 0:53:04.360 --> 0:53:07.160 but if you get to the core, you can actually 0:53:07.280 --> 0:53:10.920 do good. You can actually fix a problem. If you 0:53:11.080 --> 0:53:16.640 understand why, you can learn how. And that's what it's 0:53:16.640 --> 0:53:16.960 taught me. 0:53:18.480 --> 0:53:20.680 Frank, we're out of time, I feel like we could 0:53:20.719 --> 0:53:21.320 have kept going. 0:53:22.040 --> 0:53:22.960 Thank you for having me. 0:53:24.160 --> 0:53:27.760 Frank Luntz is a political and communications consultant and polster. 0:53:28.160 --> 0:53:32.480 You can find him at fi LUNs dot com. Here 0:53:32.520 --> 0:53:37.239 at crash Course, we believe the collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising, 0:53:37.480 --> 0:53:41.160 and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I learned that 0:53:41.239 --> 0:53:44.120 facts matter very much to Frank Luntz, as they should. 0:53:44.320 --> 0:53:46.319 They should matter to all of us, because in an 0:53:46.320 --> 0:53:50.640 era full of disinformation, facts still matter. What did you learn? 0:53:51.040 --> 0:53:53.080 We'd love to hear from you. You can tweet at 0:53:53.080 --> 0:53:56.359 the Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion or me at Tim 0:53:56.400 --> 0:54:00.359 O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also 0:54:00.400 --> 0:54:03.239 subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and 0:54:03.320 --> 0:54:05.880 leave us a review. It helps more people find the show. 0:54:06.640 --> 0:54:10.360 This episode was produced by the indispensable Anna Maazarakus, Moses 0:54:10.400 --> 0:54:14.520 Adam and me. Our supervising producer is Magnus Hendrickson, and 0:54:14.600 --> 0:54:18.520 we had editing help from Stage Bauman, Katie Boys, Jeff Grocott, 0:54:18.680 --> 0:54:22.480 Mike Nitze, and Christine Vanden Bilert. Blake Maples does our 0:54:22.520 --> 0:54:25.759 sound engineering and our original theme song was composed by 0:54:25.840 --> 0:54:29.520 Luis Gara. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll be back next week 0:54:29.680 --> 0:54:30.720 with another crash course.