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Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and

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Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tim O'Bryant. Today's crash Course. Polling versus the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four election. Polling, the very inexact science that is the

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Speaker 1: lifeblood of political analysis and guesswork is very much with us,

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Speaker 1: built upon a series of queries that asks respondents essentially,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about X? Polling aims to make

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Speaker 1: the intangible concrete. It is the stuff from which predictions

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Speaker 1: are made, the data that fuels a political marketplace, aiming

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Speaker 1: to artfully respond to voters preferences and priorities. But polling,

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Speaker 1: via its siblings, focus groups and messaging, also aspires to

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Speaker 1: shape voters preferences two in the best interpretation, understand and

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Speaker 1: serve them with greater clarity in the worst interpretation. Messaging

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Speaker 1: makes voters more malleable, more easily swayed. The modern polling

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Speaker 1: era may have begun in the late nineteen fifties when

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Speaker 1: Joe Kennedy retained the services of a polster named Lou

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Speaker 1: Harris to help him market his son John. Just like

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Speaker 1: another consumer product, today, polls beget messaging, which begets spin

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Speaker 1: which sometimes begets disinformation and other dark arts. It's tough

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Speaker 1: out there, and the twenty twenty four presidential race will

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Speaker 1: be a cage match. Joining me today is Frank Once.

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Speaker 1: Frank is a political and communication strategist and polster who

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Speaker 1: has spent much of his career working for Republicans. He

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Speaker 1: also has been a polster for some of the biggest

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Speaker 1: media companies in the country and specializes in leveraging the

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Speaker 1: emotional content of language to win campaigns. Welcome to Crash Course, Frank.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, and can I just start by saying I've

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Speaker 2: listened to your introduction, yes, and there are forwards that

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Speaker 2: I want to address right off the bat, disruption, prediction, disinformation,

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Speaker 2: and leverage the issue disruption is absolutely accurate from you,

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Speaker 2: even in the fact that I've just disrupted your conversation

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Speaker 2: right now. But the goal of the work that I

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Speaker 2: do is not disruption. It's actually understanding. It's comprehension. My

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Speaker 2: job is to understand the people that I'm researching, to

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Speaker 2: understand what they really want from what they're telling me.

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Speaker 2: It's the exact opposite of disruption. If I do my

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Speaker 2: job well, it's not disruption. There are no surprises there's

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Speaker 2: predictability and stability. Second prediction, I should not be doing

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Speaker 2: it and polsters should not be doing it. Yes, that's

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Speaker 2: what we're called upon to do. That's actually the least

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Speaker 2: important aspect of what a polster should do, and frankly,

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Speaker 2: the less predictions they do, the better off the profession

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Speaker 2: would be. Third information, which I am absolutely resolute in

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Speaker 2: the accuracy of what I tell you. In the accuracy

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Speaker 2: of what I put out doesn't mean I've got one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent record of success, but we have to be

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Speaker 2: the opponents, the most hostile people to any kind of

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Speaker 2: misinformation or disinformation. And finally, it's the idea of leverage.

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Speaker 2: To me, leverage is about knowledge, and I want to

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Speaker 2: know more than anyone in that room. I want to

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Speaker 2: understand not how people think, but what they believe and

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Speaker 2: why they communicate what they say. I don't look at

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Speaker 2: it as leverage. I look at it as wisdom to

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Speaker 2: hopefully reduce the conflicts and the surprises, and to help

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Speaker 2: either candidates or governments or businesses or anyone be able

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Speaker 2: to fully understand so they can keep their promises, they

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Speaker 2: can do the jobs that they were set out to do.

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Speaker 2: And most importantly, they will reinstill a level of trust

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Speaker 2: and confidence that what they say and what they mean

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Speaker 2: is what they actually do.

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Speaker 1: Well, Frank, I love that you put your linguist Scalpel

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Speaker 1: the use on the introduction. It's a great way actually

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Speaker 1: to start the show. Disruption is more about the ethos

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Speaker 1: of the show that we sort of look at disruptive

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Speaker 1: events to glean an understanding of them. So it was

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Speaker 1: less about polsters being disruptive agents. But certainly the other

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Speaker 1: three words that you've focused on, leverage, disinformation, and prediction.

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Speaker 1: I think those are good themes for us to weave

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Speaker 1: in and out of our conversation today because it is

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Speaker 1: the essence I think of where campaigns are won and

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Speaker 1: lost and where polling is right now in terms of

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Speaker 1: navigating around those rocks. And you've set this up wonderfully.

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Speaker 1: You've been around. You worked for Pap Buchanan, you worked

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Speaker 1: for Nude Gingrich, you worked for Rudy Giuliani, more recently,

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Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy. You worked for the Bushes. You've represented a

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Speaker 1: lot of people and.

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Speaker 2: Never worked for the pulp On. Never work for the

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Speaker 2: Bushes ever, And this is an example.

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Speaker 1: Can you work for the Bush, White House in terms

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Speaker 1: of health and craft their method. Well, then let's get

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Speaker 1: to that later. Well let's handle that chronologically. I could

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Speaker 1: readdress this.

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Speaker 2: Though I don't want you to cut this out of

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Speaker 2: the show. Okay, this is a perfect example of misinformation.

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Speaker 1: Somebody notice that, because misinformation would be I intended to

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Speaker 1: say you worked for the Bushes to fake out my

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Speaker 1: audience and have them believe bad things about you, knowing

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Speaker 1: that you didn't work for the Bushes. I honestly thought

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Speaker 1: you did, and I thought you advised them on climate

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Speaker 1: change initiatives.

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Speaker 2: But that's why this is so important. Don't cut this

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Speaker 2: from the show, please, because somebody wrote that more than

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Speaker 2: twenty years ago to hurt my reputation, to say that

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Speaker 2: this was done in a negative way. And that's exactly

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Speaker 2: the problem.

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Speaker 1: Back the matter. You actually never did work for the Bushes,

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Speaker 1: for either one of them.

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Speaker 2: No, they have no idea who I am.

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Speaker 1: They never retain to work on anything.

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Speaker 2: No, and that's why no.

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Speaker 1: One in their White House retained you. No one acting

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Speaker 1: as their representatives retain you.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, there are people that I know, but I never

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Speaker 2: worked for George W. Book direct, directly or.

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Speaker 1: In so that's what I was wondering, and that's right, qut.

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Speaker 2: And this is really important for the listeners to hear this.

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Speaker 2: Don't believe the crap that you read on the web.

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Speaker 2: Don't believe social media. I know by the names that

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Speaker 2: you used. You said Papu Canon and not Ross Paro.

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Speaker 2: And the fact is I was much more engaged in

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Speaker 2: the Ross Paro campaign. But I know the article. I

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Speaker 2: know where this comes from. So I know the list

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Speaker 2: of people that you give. I've worked for so many.

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Speaker 1: Let's slow for one second. There's no ill intent on

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Speaker 1: my part in warming up your client list. It's not

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Speaker 1: to cherry pick any of them. It was more just

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Speaker 1: to convey to the audience that you have a long

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Speaker 1: track record doing this and you've represented notable people. And

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Speaker 1: if I've messed any of that up, I'm happy to

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Speaker 1: clarify it. But it wasn't meant to misrepresent your bona

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Speaker 1: fides or your CV.

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Speaker 2: But when it was put out initially, there was no

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Speaker 2: acknowledgment that I worked with a Biden Weight House directly

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Speaker 2: on COVID language. There is no discussion that I work

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Speaker 2: with the Clinton White House on global trade, specifically NAFTA.

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Speaker 2: There's no comment about sitting down with so many leaders

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Speaker 2: from across the globe, because I know where this comes from.

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Speaker 2: And I love the fact that this begins with this

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Speaker 2: conversation me too, because it tells the listener be careful

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Speaker 2: of what you read, be careful of what you see,

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Speaker 2: because it may not be accurate at all.

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Speaker 1: So is it inaccurate to describe you as a Republican pulster?

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Speaker 1: Do you feel you're a bipartisan pulster?

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Speaker 2: They've stopped calling me a Republican?

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, But what do you consider yourself?

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Speaker 2: I consider myself a nonpartisan by partisan means you work

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Speaker 2: for both sides, not partisan means you don't take sides.

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Speaker 2: I have relationships with the Republicans absolutely, and I was

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Speaker 2: a partisan polster ten years ago, twenty years ago, but

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Speaker 2: beginning with the Donald Trump election in twenty sixteen, I've

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Speaker 2: actually publicly eschewed partisanship and even the word itself. You

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Speaker 2: can say I'm a language guy. Even the word partisan itself,

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Speaker 2: it's not accurate for what I do because in the end,

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Speaker 2: it's not my job to represent Republicans or make them

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Speaker 2: look good. It's not my job to speak ill of Democrats.

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Speaker 2: It's my job to be honest and accurate to every

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Speaker 2: question you ask me.

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Speaker 1: So, in the interest of accuracy and the chronology, I

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Speaker 1: think we should have a new timestamp BT and AT,

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Speaker 1: you know, before Trump and after Trump. So the Frank

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Speaker 1: Lunce of the BT era was a partisan polster who

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Speaker 1: worked largely, perhaps almost exclusively, for Republicans. The Frank Lunce

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Speaker 1: of the AT period is spreading his net more broadly

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Speaker 1: and working for people he believes in. Is that accurate?

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Speaker 2: That is accurate, and it's not just domestically. We're doing

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Speaker 2: this interview with me in London, which shows you how

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Speaker 2: great technology is that you and I can communicate five

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Speaker 2: thousand miles apart from each other in real time. And

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Speaker 2: my perspective is much more global. Having traveled to I

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Speaker 2: will hit my fiftieth country this year. It does give

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Speaker 2: me a different perspective, not just as a pholster or

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Speaker 2: as a communicator, but as a human being. Now that

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Speaker 2: I've visited every continent except for Antarctica, it teaches me

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Speaker 2: that there is a different way of speaking, that there's

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Speaker 2: a different way of life, and that the priorities are

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Speaker 2: the things I take for granted as an American are

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Speaker 2: simply not the same as those from an Asian country

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Speaker 2: or an African country, for example, and that it makes

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Speaker 2: me not only more tolerant of other cultures and other societies,

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Speaker 2: but it makes me more curious to understand, to learn

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Speaker 2: about what they have to offer to a humankind on

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Speaker 2: a global scale.

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Speaker 1: Since we've invoked Trump already, I was going to get

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Speaker 1: to that a little later, but I think it could

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Speaker 1: also still be a useful departure point right now. Well,

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Speaker 1: what was the intervention in your worldview and in your

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Speaker 1: life as a pulser in a human being when Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump entered your mindscape? As I understand it, it actually

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Speaker 1: took a physical toll on you. You had a stroke

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Speaker 1: a few years ago. I've seen in some public statements

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Speaker 1: you attributed that in part to the stress philosophically and

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Speaker 1: emotionally and physically you experienced when Donald Trump ascended into

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Speaker 1: the White House.

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Speaker 2: I think that's fair. I think that's accurate. But go

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Speaker 2: back even further. I'm the person who interviewed Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: in Des Moines, Iowa, in twenty fifteen when Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: was condemning John McCain, and I intervened to say, wait

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Speaker 2: a minute, John McCain's a war hero, and Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: famously said, talking over me, he's not a war hero.

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Speaker 2: He was captured. I like the ones who weren't captured.

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Speaker 2: That was my interview. You hear me, but you don't

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Speaker 2: see me on camera. And from that moment on, I

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Speaker 2: had a problem with him.

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Speaker 1: He rather than what what was the specific problem you

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Speaker 1: had with him?

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Speaker 2: I didn't think he told the truth. To mean nothing matters. No,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna use that word. I know.

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Speaker 1: I'm asking is did you consider him a liar?

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Speaker 2: I considered that he didn't tell the truth.

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Speaker 1: What's the difference?

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Speaker 2: A huge difference.

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Speaker 1: Explain that one.

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Speaker 2: If I call someone a liar, I'm immediately asking you

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Speaker 2: to judge me by that accusation. If I'm saying he

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Speaker 2: doesn't tell the truth, you're simply analyzing the statements and

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Speaker 2: the delivery of the person that we're focused on. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to be accusing someone of lying, because I

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Speaker 2: know that that causes people not to listen, causes them

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Speaker 2: to shut up. But if I say is he telling

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Speaker 2: the truth? If I turn it as a question, it

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Speaker 2: is much more likely that I will contemplate what I've said.

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Speaker 2: You are more likely to take what I say and

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Speaker 2: accept it because I'm not being accused a to him.

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Speaker 1: But I was just talking about your own decision. You

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Speaker 1: said you were turned off because you believed he wasn't

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Speaker 1: telling the truth. You were making your own subjective value

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Speaker 1: judgment about it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I'm just not willing to use your language to

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Speaker 2: describe it now.

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Speaker 1: I was just series about how you parts the difference

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Speaker 1: between the two in terms of your own view of him.

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Speaker 1: But we can probably get stuck on that one forever now.

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Speaker 2: Actually, but here's the thing, Okay, I listen to every

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Speaker 2: word when a politician is speaking, when a business person

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Speaker 2: is speaking, when a cultural icon is speaking, I pay

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Speaker 2: attention to what they say. It's in listening to how

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Speaker 2: people formulate their statements and the words that they use.

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Speaker 2: And I used to just let it go when it

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Speaker 2: was about me. I would never correct someone. And now

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Speaker 2: I realize that on a podcast like this that it

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Speaker 2: is essential that the listeners hear the words that I

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Speaker 2: wish to speak, absolutely, because that is clarifying either my

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Speaker 2: story or my beliefs, or my principles, my.

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Speaker 1: Priorities, your place in the world did go.

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Speaker 2: That's perfect.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is an ideal outcome. I hope that listeners

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Speaker 1: come up close to you and your place in the

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Speaker 1: world and how you see it, and I appreciate you

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Speaker 1: course correcting as we move along. So we've arrived at

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Speaker 1: this Trump moment. But this is such a rich subject

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Speaker 1: and let's not tie it all to Trump just yet.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the pre Trump era

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Speaker 1: in your life. I think you sort of enter polling

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Speaker 1: as a main part of your life around the early nineties,

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Speaker 1: more or less. And how was the world that you

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Speaker 1: entered then polling and messaging and then actualizing those things

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Speaker 1: and campaigns and strategy positions. How was that world different

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Speaker 1: than the one we're in right now.

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Speaker 2: Frank, Oh, that's good. That's a tough question to answer

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Speaker 2: because there's so many facets of it. And even in

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Speaker 2: my own life. I learned how to do survey research

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty when I was eighteen years old, and

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Speaker 2: I was supposed from nineteen eighty till about nineteen ninety four.

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Speaker 2: And it was a breakfast that I have a new

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Speaker 2: Kingridge in April of ninety four, where he said to me,

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Speaker 2: gave me two pieces of advice. Pollsters are a dime

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Speaker 2: a dozen You can find a dozen of them in

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Speaker 2: the Republican Party. No big deal, nothing special. I want

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Speaker 2: you to be a wordsmith. I want you to use

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Speaker 2: polling to study how to communicate difficult principles and how

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Speaker 2: to explain the conservative philosophy in a way that we

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Speaker 2: win not for the next election, but for the next generation.

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Speaker 2: And I followed that. That was when I started focusing

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Speaker 2: on language. The other advice he gave me was learn

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Speaker 2: Spanish because it's going to become the most important subgroup

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Speaker 2: and no Republican polster really understands it. That one I

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Speaker 2: didn't do because guy, Frankly, I'm an idiot when it

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Speaker 2: comes to language. And my first big client in life

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Speaker 2: were people running for office in Puerto Rico, the governor,

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Speaker 2: the Resident Commissioner. Yet I couldn't speak the language. And

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Speaker 2: from that point on, I'm always trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: how to say it, how to communicate it, how to

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Speaker 2: show it, how to present it. Everything from my PowerPoint

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Speaker 2: slides to the videos that I create to the interviews

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Speaker 2: like this one. It's always trying to clarify and simplify

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Speaker 2: the language.

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Speaker 1: But come back to me different idea of what was

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Speaker 1: different than compared to now, what's the great change you've

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Speaker 1: witnessed over say, the last thirty years, give or take

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Speaker 1: a few.

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Speaker 2: The greatest change in polling is that people want to

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Speaker 2: know why not what so nobody is asking is the

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Speaker 2: direction of a country positive or negative? They want to

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Speaker 2: know why positive and why negative. They want to understand

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Speaker 2: the reaction that certain politicians have on the electorate, not

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Speaker 2: who they trust necessarily, but why they have trust or distrust.

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Speaker 2: What is the root cause of some of the challenges

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Speaker 2: we face. So just asking people what's the most important

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Speaker 2: issue in America today is irrelevant in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: What is relevant is the root cause of that concern?

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Speaker 2: Is it economic anxiety? Is it loss of faith and

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Speaker 2: trust in the system? Do we now believe that democracy

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Speaker 2: or capitalism don't work. It's trying to understand the second degree,

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Speaker 2: the third degree of any issue, because in the end,

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Speaker 2: if we don't understand the root cause, we don't understand

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Speaker 2: how to fix it.

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Speaker 1: You have always been attuned, though, to the idea of emotion,

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Speaker 1: the emotional quotient that underlies people's preferences and choices. I

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Speaker 1: think you've spoken very specifically and articulately about that over

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Speaker 1: the years. I have a feeling you're going to say

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Speaker 1: that that's also been pulled off of some weird spot

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Speaker 1: on the Internet, and it doesn't really reflect who you are.

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Speaker 1: But I bring it up not to zikatcha, but just

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Speaker 1: as an attempt to get at your statement of purpose

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Speaker 1: in terms of what you see the essence of I

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Speaker 1: think this is a an accurate quote. Eighty percent of

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Speaker 1: our life is emotion and only twenty percent is intellect.

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Speaker 1: I am much more interested in how you feel than

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Speaker 1: how you think, or another one along the same lines.

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Speaker 1: It's all emotion, but there's nothing wrong with emotion. When

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Speaker 1: we are in love, we are not rational. We are emotional.

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Speaker 1: My job is to look for the words that trigger

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Speaker 1: the emotion. We know that words and emotion together are

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Speaker 1: the most powerful force known to mankind. So explain to me.

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Speaker 1: Do you also think that that was a relatively novel

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Speaker 1: insight within the polling community, This idea of move it

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Speaker 1: beyond simply issue based polling and get at this emotional

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Speaker 1: motivator for voters.

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Speaker 2: Other people have done that long before me. What I

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Speaker 2: learned and where I'm different is to find the language

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Speaker 2: that best articulates or best connects to emotion, passion intensity.

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Speaker 2: I know right now, for example, that there is probably

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Speaker 2: thirty percent of Americans, thirty percent that don't believe in

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Speaker 2: our electoral system, and I'm trying to figure out how

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Speaker 2: to speak to them because I believe that the right person,

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Speaker 2: the accurate person, won in twenty twenty. For example, I

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Speaker 2: believe that what happened on January sixth, twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: was a tragedy an embarrassment. I can't believe that some

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Speaker 2: people try to downplay the events of that day. I

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Speaker 2: need to understand what is triggering this level of anger

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Speaker 2: and more importantly, distrust. I can work with anger. I

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Speaker 2: can work with disappointment. I can work with fear. I

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Speaker 2: can work with anxiety, and when I say I can

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Speaker 2: work with it, I can understand it and craft a

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Speaker 2: language to address it. But I cannot do anything about mistrust.

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Speaker 2: I cannot do anything if the public believes that those

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Speaker 2: who are telling the truth are lying and the liars

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Speaker 2: are actually truth tellers. And that's the situation that we're

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Speaker 2: in right now. And the reason why I was so

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Speaker 2: eager to do this podcast is that that, to me,

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Speaker 2: is the single greatest disruption in American society. Today. It's

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Speaker 2: not economic, it's not financial, it's not even political. It's

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Speaker 2: the fact that there's so little in our lives that

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Speaker 2: we now trust, and that we believe that the institutions

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Speaker 2: and the people who run them that matter most are untruthful.

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Speaker 2: And if that's the case, our democracy is in jeopardy,

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Speaker 2: our economic freedom is in jeopardy. And I can't fix

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Speaker 2: it because I don't know how to instill trust when

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Speaker 2: it is lost.

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Speaker 1: Do you know this is actually a phenomenon that was

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Speaker 1: gaining traction before Trump even landed in the White House,

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Speaker 1: a fraying of trust in US institutions. I think it

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Speaker 1: accelerated around the financial crisis. Certainly a lot of the

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Speaker 1: analysis of people's faith and institutions and the idea of

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Speaker 1: public authority had taken noticeable downturns in the mid two

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Speaker 1: thousands and surveys compared to prior to that era. I

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Speaker 1: would suggest or think that it had to do with

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Speaker 1: how devastating the financial crisis was for a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: And then I think it's accelerated since then. But one

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Speaker 1: of the interesting constants that's gone along with that during

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Speaker 1: that period and it remains so today, is that people

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Speaker 1: still trust their own personal network, they trust their family,

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Speaker 1: they trust their friends, they trust people they have direct

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Speaker 1: contact with. And that's a hard thing to leverage in

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Speaker 1: terms of rebuilding trust for people. Is it has to

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Speaker 1: happen at this very granular local level. When we run

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Speaker 1: campaigns that are national league, when we run companies that

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Speaker 1: have national footprints. I think some of the solution involves

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Speaker 1: a lot of very granular direct contact among people, and

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Speaker 1: I think that that's going to be an ongoing challenge

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Speaker 1: for the political process. And this is also to me

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Speaker 1: why it's so interesting to do an episode of polling,

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Speaker 1: because I think the accuracy of polls and their ability

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Speaker 1: to actually drive into people's needs in a broad based

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Speaker 1: way and marry that understanding to personal interaction and then

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Speaker 1: to policy in order to get better civic result is

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Speaker 1: the challenge in front of us all right now.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons why I do focus groups,

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Speaker 2: and I stopped doing it for about a year after

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Speaker 2: January sixth because people were so rude and so vicious

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Speaker 2: and so mean to each other.

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Speaker 1: And occurring within the focus groups.

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Speaker 2: You mean, within the focus groups. I'm about to publish

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Speaker 2: some of the worst ones. There were seven sessions that

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Speaker 2: I did that were so awful.

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Speaker 1: In that this is post January sixth, this is.

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Speaker 2: Right around there, this is post election twenty twenty. That

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Speaker 2: the group's never made air that from the beginning to

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Speaker 2: the end, people yelled at each other, they didn't listen,

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Speaker 2: they didn't want to listen. They were accusatory and just mean.

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Speaker 2: And the various networks that I I did it for

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Speaker 2: said to me, we can't put this on the air.

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Speaker 2: This is a I don't want to use the language.

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Speaker 2: But rams would hit and no, and it was embarrassing

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Speaker 2: to me, and I finally decided that now was the

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Speaker 2: time to put it out. So if you're a listener

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Speaker 2: to this program, just know if you type in my

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Speaker 2: name and Straight Arrow News, you'll be able to see

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Speaker 2: snippets of these sessions. I just warn you, it's going

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Speaker 2: to break your heart and it's going to scare the

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Speaker 2: hell out of you. Because this is the country that

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Speaker 2: we have become.

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Speaker 1: Why was it important to you to publicize those focus

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Speaker 1: groups gone wrong?

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Speaker 2: Because my health is not that great, which I've acknowledged,

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Speaker 2: and because I'm trying to put out as much information

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Speaker 2: and facts as I can to show people that we

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Speaker 2: are dangerously close to coming apart, and I don't want

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Speaker 2: to play the role of divider. I want to play

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Speaker 2: the role of truth teller so that we can consider

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Speaker 2: a different approach to how we talk to each other,

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Speaker 2: how we treat each other, and most importantly for the

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Speaker 2: next generation, our commitment to civics and decency, so that

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Speaker 2: this doesn't get any worse in an election cycle that

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Speaker 2: I'm afraid is going to be the worst of modern times.

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Speaker 1: Frank, we're going to take a break on that note,

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Speaker 1: and we will come right back after we hear from

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Speaker 1: one of our sponsors. We're back with Frank Luntz, a

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Speaker 1: prominent polster and political strategist and always full of insights.

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Speaker 1: Frank has been simultaneously educating me, correcting the record, and

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Speaker 1: having a great conversation with me in the previous session.

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Speaker 1: So we'll continue on that path. You know, I wanted

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Speaker 1: to talk again about this epiphany you had. You know,

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Speaker 1: I topped off the show talking about Joe Kennedy had

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Speaker 1: this insight in which he famously said he wanted to

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Speaker 1: sell his son John like a box of soap flakes,

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Speaker 1: laundry detergent, and the rap on John Kennedy at the

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Speaker 1: time was he hadn't paid his dues in the Senate,

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Speaker 1: he didn't have a lot of experience, but the family's

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Speaker 1: marketing prowess and money allowed for the celebrification, if that's

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Speaker 1: the word, a celebrification of the presidency, and that that

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Speaker 1: really launched us into an era when you could go

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Speaker 1: above the party apparatus, go beyond the resume, and bring

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Speaker 1: a candidate directly in front of voters if he or

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Speaker 1: she was packaged the right way. We saw that obviously

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Speaker 1: with Ronald Reagan, a formidably telligenic candidate, and then in

437
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,239
Speaker 1: the Trump era with social media, Trump went around all

438
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: the gatekeepers. He was able to go to his supporters

439
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 1: directly through social media, and he is the personification of

440
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 1: a certain form of celebrity the United States. I think

441
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: his celebrity was built on sand. He was the entrepreneurial

442
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: guru from the masses, while in the real world he

443
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 1: was a serial bankruptcy artist. Nonetheless, I think there is

444
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: a strand you could tie from John CA Kennedy to

445
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump in terms of the political process, and polling

446
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: is so tied up in that right. Polling is an

447
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: element of how you package the candidate. Maybe the core element.

448
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: Have you had thoughts about any of that. I know

449
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: you've said in various places you've tried to reckon with

450
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: the life you led as upholster prior to Trump. We

451
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: talked about that earlier and the life you're trying to lead. Now,

452
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: tell me what you think of that long list of

453
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: particular as I just put on your doorstep.

454
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: It's an interesting list, and I would have stopped at

455
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 2: Bill Clinton, Who's the one who taught me that there's

456
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 2: a difference in how people hear you depending on words

457
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 2: you use. It was Bill Clinton who first came up

458
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: with the idea that we're going to have revenue enhancements.

459
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: That's what we call them. Any normal human being would

460
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: have called them tax increases, but that kills the popularity,

461
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: so they're now revenue enhancements. I know. In nineteen ninety four,

462
00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: new gingridg focused on the Crime Bill to essentially ridiculed

463
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: Democrats for supporting midnight basketball, dance, lessons for convicts, all

464
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: sorts of programs that the public would hate. And then

465
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,479
Speaker 2: I saw how it was used George W. Bush versus

466
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 2: Al Gore in two thousand. We've had a steady progression

467
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: of candidates on both sides of the aisle that have

468
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 2: used polling arguably to know what matters to the public,

469
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 2: but in some ways to know how to manipulate that public.

470
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: And that's one of the reasons why I got further

471
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 2: and further and further away from politics, from elections, because

472
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 2: I didn't want to be part of that.

473
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: Because you felt that the polling process was corrupting both

474
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 1: policymaking and the packaging of candidates.

475
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 2: I thought it was making American politics way too negative.

476
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 2: And the irony of that is, I'm now so pessimistic,

477
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: I'm now so frightened of the future candidly, and I

478
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 2: should have spoken up much earlier challenge this situation. That's

479
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: probably my greatest regret of my career is that I

480
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 2: saw some of these trends happening and I didn't speak up.

481
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: Why Why didn't you speak up?

482
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: I don't know. Because my friends were in politics, they

483
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 2: were in business, and I don't want to make their

484
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 2: lives any more difficult.

485
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 1: Was it the paycheck? You were making a good living?

486
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: Was that hard to walk away from.

487
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: It's easy to walk away from it.

488
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: Money does, so that wasn't a factor.

489
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: Money is not a factor. Power is not a factor.

490
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 2: Fame is not a factor. It's just simply easier to do.

491
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: So, did you feel like you were part of a

492
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: community you didn't want to leave. You mentioned that too,

493
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: that your friends were in politics. I'm just interesting because

494
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 1: at some point you did make a decision to step away,

495
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: and that's an interesting process for anybody to go through.

496
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: Yes, And I don't recommend it to anybody because people

497
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 2: around you, your friends, will tell you do the right thing,

498
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 2: and they're correct. But there is a cost to doing

499
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: the right thing, to calling out people, particularly on your

500
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,719
Speaker 2: side of the aisle, particularly clients of yours. If you

501
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: start to call out people who you are aligned with,

502
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 2: allied with, even friends, guess what you pay a price,

503
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: not financially, emotionally, personally, And at the time I didn't want.

504
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: To pay that because you get exiled from the community.

505
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: Because you find yourself at odds with your friends. You're

506
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 2: the host of this show. Have you not called somebody

507
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 2: out who you like very much on your podcast and

508
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 2: then had to explain to them while you took them on,

509
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: while you publicly criticize them. Because if you haven't, then

510
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: you don't know what it's like to go through the process.

511
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 2: And I did, and I took a whole lot of

512
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: craft for it, and there were times when I regretted it,

513
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: But after three years now of having done it, I'm

514
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 2: glad I did. I just wish I'd done it sooner.

515
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: What was the first glimmer you've got of that? And again,

516
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: let's talk about BT Before Trump, was there a moment

517
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: where you felt like your work as a pulser was

518
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: going sideways, that it wasn't contributing to the world in

519
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: the way that you wanted it to.

520
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and that's the issue of climate change, the work

521
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: that I did that media people still cite today still

522
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: after twenty three years. I began my polling as an

523
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 2: opponent of the climate issue. I raised questions about the science.

524
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 2: I tried to understand. I challenged those who were so

525
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: absolutely convinced that it was happening. And this is back

526
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 2: in two thousand and two thousand and one, and to

527
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: this day there are still people who pretend as though

528
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 2: I still feel this way, as a way to attack.

529
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: Me, when in fact you later testified in front of

530
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: Congress that you thought you were wrong in the early

531
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: two thousands, your position on climate Chang was wrong, and

532
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: that you wouldn't say the same things currently that you

533
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: said about it then.

534
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: Exactly, And that, by the way, that testimony was five

535
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: years ago.

536
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: You brought up climate change at a moment when you

537
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: started to feel like your work is Polster was going sideways.

538
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: What about your work at that time made you uncomfortable

539
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: about polling?

540
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 2: Because I was learning that I was wrong and the

541
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 2: work that i'd done was really, really good. And now

542
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 2: it's the work that I've done since then. And I'm

543
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 2: going to give you two great examples. The community that

544
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: is concerned about climate that believes it's a crisis or

545
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 2: climate chaos, however you want to communicate it, continues to

546
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 2: use the word sustainability, that we need a sustainable environment.

547
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: The problem with sustainability is that it's status quo. So

548
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: when I started to look at the climate science and

549
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 2: realize that I made a mistake, I wanted to come

550
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 2: up with language that I would address the things that

551
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 2: I had written about. And so I realized that being cleaner, safer,

552
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: healthier was better than being sustainable, because sustainability is the

553
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 2: status quote. Cleaner, safer, healthier means better. Trying to get

554
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: the climate community to use better language is just about impossible.

555
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 2: A second example is that the public absolutely cares about

556
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 2: the next generation, cares about their children. To focus on

557
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 2: how this climate issue is going to affect them is

558
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: the most powerful way to reach the public. But the

559
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: same climate activists want to talk about what it's doing

560
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 2: to the planet. The planet is too big. Their children

561
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 2: is just the right focal point.

562
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: So there's some frank consulting work going on right there.

563
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: If you want to win the climate change battle, focus

564
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: on its impact on the people you love, and not

565
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: a big, amorphous planet that you can't get your arms around.

566
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: You can get your arms around your kid, you can't

567
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: get your arms around the planet exactly. You can use

568
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: that in your campaign, Frank, I'll let you so. Also,

569
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: to get back to just correcting the record on this,

570
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 1: that whole climate change work during a period when people

571
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: were calling it lie warming, and you offered advice by

572
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: calling it climate change instead, none of that was in

573
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: the service of the Bush administration. I must have had

574
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: that wrong when I brought that up earlier.

575
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: It's been written about, so I'm not surprised that you

576
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:17,479
Speaker 2: said it. I never not once met George W. Bush

577
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: in the White House and anythings that he did, and

578
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 2: he actually shook his hand at a Republican events. He

579
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: had no idea who I was. He never ad my stuff.

580
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 2: I was doing this at the time for the business community.

581
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: But that isn't sexy enough. That doesn't sell.

582
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: And no one from the White House, no one representing

583
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: the Bushes had retained your services. No, okay, No, Well,

584
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: that's good for people to know that, and we should

585
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: try to excize that from the public record, and we

586
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: can do that now through this show forever on this

587
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: issue of Trump's intervention in your worldview and how it

588
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: was such an eye opener for you, and you said

589
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: earlier in the top of the show that it was

590
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: because he didn't tell the truth and you lost faith

591
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: in him as a political actor and a person. I

592
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: guess out of that. One of the curious phenomenons watching

593
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: right now is that trump Ism and the uses and

594
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: abuses of propaganda and social division I think pervades a

595
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: lot of the Republican messaging right now. When I look

596
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: at what I think are some of the foundations going

597
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty four of Republican messaging, I look at

598
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: the backlash against immigration, I look at some of the

599
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: anti woke statements, and obviously those pushes touch on real things.

600
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: People have concerns about the border. People have real concerns

601
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: about an unmanaged border. People are concerned that perhaps college

602
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: curriculums are getting overtaken by people who have ideology in

603
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: the front of their minds rather than learning. But as

604
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: to whether or not either of these things amount to

605
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: the kind of a crisis, the candidates, like RHN de Stantists,

606
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: for example, pedal constantly in their messaging. I think it's

607
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: an interesting referendum around whether or not the GOP right

608
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: now now has the right messages lined up going into

609
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. And I was wondering what you thought

610
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: about that.

611
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 2: So allow me to tell you a story about an

612
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 2: interaction with Trump that had such an impact on me,

613
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: and I've not spoken about it until now. I was

614
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 2: fortunate enough to be invited to write on Air Force

615
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 2: one between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Trump is doing

616
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 2: a speech. So being sat in the very back of

617
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 2: the plane, the plane takes off, they come and said

618
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: for me. I brought to the front of the plane

619
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: and there's the President sits me down. It's just myself

620
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 2: the president, the Republican leader at the time, House Leader

621
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy, and we begin to have a conversation about

622
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 2: language and messaging, and he says to me, what would

623
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: you tell me? What have you heard out there? And

624
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 2: I said, you're trying to get a border wall built.

625
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 2: But their Democrats are not going to build a wall.

626
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: They will build a security barrier. They will build something

627
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 2: that makes it more difficult for people to come across illegally,

628
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: but they won't build a wall. So Trump hears this

629
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: and his response to me is, but Frank, I've been

630
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 2: saying build a wall, build a wall. All my supporters

631
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 2: know that chance, they chanted at every event I do.

632
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 2: That's a horrible chance. Build the security barrier, build the

633
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 2: security And I said, sir, that's not what I mean.

634
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 2: In Washington as policy called it a security barrier, and

635
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 2: then in your rallies, you can call it a wall.

636
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 2: So he doesn't like that answer, so he calls Jared

637
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: Kushner to come in first. Then he calls Steven Miller

638
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: to come in, and then he says, hey, guys, Frank says,

639
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: we got a new chance, build a security barrier. And

640
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: I said, sir, that is not what I mean, and

641
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 2: I was genuinely angry. So we get to Vegas, it's

642
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: a very short flight. He does this thing. I'm invited

643
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 2: to come back to Washington, d C. Because it's where

644
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: I'm heading anyway, and once again we get into the

645
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: same conversations. I'm about to acknowledge something I've never admitted

646
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 2: before until now. I was so agitated that he was

647
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 2: making fun of me, that he was cheapening the advice,

648
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: that he was politicizing something that I thought was very

649
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: important to policy, that the only way that I could

650
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: respond is simply to close my eyes and fall asleep.

651
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 2: So I must be the first person ever the Jews

652
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: spoken to who fell asleep on Air Force one in

653
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 2: front of the president. It was the way that I

654
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 2: took myself out of the conversation. Your point is well taken.

655
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 2: The Republican Party used to be the party of Ronald Reagan.

656
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: The eleventh commandment shall not criticize another Republican. Now that's

657
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: the focus of most Republicans. That the focus of primaries.

658
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 2: That's all you see in these presidents of the debates

659
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: is candidates feeding up on each other instead of focusing

660
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: on what's wrong with the Democrats. They're focusing on what's

661
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: wrong with each other, their personal attack, their visious attacks.

662
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: And I credit the origination of that to Donald Trump

663
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, and now it's become

664
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,280
Speaker 2: commonplace for the Republican Party.

665
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 1: So that's internessine warfare that would have happened in the past.

666
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: What about the message that's going outside of the party

667
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: to voters. How do you see that situated strategically within

668
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 1: the GOP right now?

669
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 2: It's the exact opposite of where I came to politics.

670
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan. His language was about its morning in America.

671
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 2: His language was about doesn't matter who we are, but

672
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 2: where we came from. What matters is where we're going.

673
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 2: So his was a future focused and an uplifting message.

674
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: And Donald Trump is exactly the opposite. He even uses

675
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 2: the word revenge, and it's all about the kind of

676
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 2: politics of having a gripe. There's a word for it.

677
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 2: I can't come up with it right now, but it's resentment.

678
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: It's the politics of resents, and it's the politics of

679
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 2: getting even, and I don't think that's healthy for a country.

680
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 2: I think we've seen the impact of that. He's not

681
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: alone I believe the Democrats do it as well, but clearly,

682
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 2: with social media at an all time high in terms

683
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 2: of impact, we now get our information to affirm us

684
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: rather than to inform us, and that's where the politics

685
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 2: of resentment comes in, and I think that we're now

686
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 2: in danger of losing the ability to talk to each

687
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 2: other as a result.

688
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: The conundrum in that, too, Frank, is that the politics

689
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 1: of resentment have proven to be an effective path to power,

690
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: even if they create problematic results divisions within society, a

691
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 1: lack of policy. As a power acquisition strategy, it's worked,

692
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 1: and Trump demonstrated that in spades, which is why I

693
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 1: think you have some of these Trump light candidates like

694
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 1: Ramaswami or the Sciantists trying to walk in his shoes

695
00:38:58,600 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: without his charisma.

696
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,280
Speaker 2: I want to take the restraint to that just before

697
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 2: the break, yep, which is that I agree with that,

698
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: and it's why over the last twelve months I've started

699
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 2: to say to people and this came after the events

700
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: of January sixth, twenty twenty one, so it's only within

701
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 2: the last really two years that there's some things that

702
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: are more important than the next election that you can

703
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 2: absolutely win votes win seats and maybe even win an election,

704
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 2: do the politics of resentment and woke, but you will

705
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 2: be very sorry about the country you have because you

706
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 2: may win that election, but you're lost in an entire generation.

707
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 2: And I'm now telling people overtly publicly that be very

708
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 2: careful about what you say to get elected, because it'll

709
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 2: come back to haunt you after the election.

710
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: On that note, I'm going to take a break, Brank,

711
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 1: and we'll come right back. We're back with Frank, once

712
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 1: a prominent polster, an observer of the political scene both

713
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: in the US and overseas. Frank, in the prior segment,

714
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: we were talking about where the GOP is with its

715
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 1: messaging in the wake of trump Ism. With trump Ism

716
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: still very present, tell me a little bit about how

717
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: you see democratic messaging right now, how the Biden White

718
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 1: House is playing this. One of the things that's left

719
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: out at me and all of this is that the

720
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: Biden White House has struggled mightily to get credit for

721
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: the economy, for GDP growth and job growth that's occurred

722
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: since he assumed office. But when you look at the polling,

723
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: that's getting very little traction. That's curious to me, and

724
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: I'm also interested in any other thoughts you have about

725
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's messaging right now.

726
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: Well, the public blames the Biden administration for inflation. Whether

727
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: or not that's legitimate, that's a question for economists. But

728
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 2: when inflation started to pick up, his exact word in

729
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: response is that inflation is transitory. Tell that to someone

730
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 2: who lives paycheck to paycheck. Tell that to the twenty

731
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: three percent of Americans that literally don't know if they're

732
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 2: going to be able to pay their bills at the

733
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 2: end of the week. And they felt that the administration

734
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 2: paid no attention to it. And in fact, we went

735
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 2: through our first Thanksgiving and our first Christmas when people

736
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 2: couldnot afford to buy the dinners, they could not afford

737
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: to travel because food prices were high, gas prices were high,

738
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 2: insurance prices went up, housing prices, want everything, And there

739
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 2: was no sense of understanding from the White House for

740
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 2: months as this went forward. So that was part of it.

741
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: And the other part of it is the president offered

742
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 2: to be postpartisan. He actually ran as a and I

743
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 2: quote a uniter, but for the first year of his

744
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 2: administration there was nothing about unity. He rarely met with

745
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 2: the Republican leaders of Congress. He rarely gave aged in

746
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: any kind of constructive conversation at a time when we

747
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 2: desperately needed Democrats Republicans to be in the same room

748
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 2: at the same time hammering out their differences. Because in

749
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 2: the end, we're a fifty to fifty country. You ask

750
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: people to identify themselves as a Republican or Democrat, it's

751
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 2: almost dead. Even so, we have to give people the voice.

752
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 2: We have to recognize that the majority should not run

753
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 2: rough shot over the minority in Congress or the White

754
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 2: House versus Congress. And that did not happen. And now

755
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 2: the reason why Biden isn't getting credits has nothing to

756
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 2: do with his policy and everything to do with his age.

757
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 2: And I know that listeners right now just by saying

758
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 2: that their hands explode. But all you have to do

759
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: is look at the police. Joe Biden is old, and

760
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: he's asking us to vote for him, not as an

761
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 2: eighty one year old, He's asking us to vote for

762
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 2: him as an eighty six year old. He would be

763
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 2: eighty six at the end of his term. So the

764
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: public is looking at him and they say, thank you

765
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: for the Chips Act, thank you for fixing infrastructure, thank

766
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 2: you for making these investments, thank you for writing the ship,

767
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:19,479
Speaker 2: for adding some stability. But sir, it's time to go,

768
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 2: and he's not listening to them, and the members of

769
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: Congress are certainly not engaged. They sound so political, so partisan,

770
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 2: so angry, that there's no sense of You mentioned early

771
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 2: in this program, JFK I brought up Bill Clinton, Barack Obama.

772
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: These are three Democratic leaders who understood that you had

773
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: to focus on hope and opportunity rather than anger and despair.

774
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 2: So I'm very critical of both political parties for missing

775
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 2: a special moment to reignite our faith in the future

776
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 2: and to reconnect us both to our governing institutions and

777
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 2: the people who run them. They're both failing.

778
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 1: So you've identified Biden's age and inflation as two of

779
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 1: the things undercutting his ability to reposition himself. Is that

780
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: something that polling and messaging can cure.

781
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting because Jeffrey Katzenberg, who I'm so eager

782
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: to meet. He's a Hollywood mogul, producer, very active in

783
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 2: entertainment and very successful, but he ought to stay out

784
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 2: of politics because he's encouraging Joe Biden to lean into

785
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: the age, to say, I've got the experience. He's telling

786
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 2: Joe Biden to promote the fact that he's old not

787
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 2: to use that language, and he doesn't understand that the

788
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: American people do not want a president in their eighties.

789
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: Democrats, I would point out that if Donald Trump gets elected,

790
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: he'd be eighty one at the end of his first term,

791
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: so it's interesting the second term, well, right at the

792
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: end of the second term. That was just wishful thinking

793
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: on my part. So the age problem doesn't accrue to

794
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the way that it accrues to Biden,

795
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: So it's not simply a factor of chronology. Frank, I

796
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: think that Biden doesn't present physically in the same way

797
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: that Trump does on the campaign trail, you know, the

798
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 1: way each of them articulates and carries themselves. I think

799
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 1: there's a visible quotient with Biden, isn't there with Trump

800
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: just yet? Though Trump's become notably more mushmouth and notably

801
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: more unhinged in his tour right now, I do think

802
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,919
Speaker 1: it's bonkers that anyone would think that Donald Trump would

803
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 1: be a more reliable steward of the ship of State

804
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: than Joe Bidenful.

805
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: Be careful your partisanship is showing.

806
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,840
Speaker 1: No, it's not my partisanship. It's just my rational desire

807
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 1: to have adults in the room making decisions as opposed

808
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 1: to little kids on pogo sticks.

809
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 2: By the way, maybe give you the best example. Here's

810
00:45:55,400 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: another example of language. Your comments, and I know how

811
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: you feel, and there are tens of millions of people

812
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 2: who agree with you and they want to get in

813
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 2: that dig. But that's not how you succeed. The phrase

814
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 2: you use. We need leaders who are reasonable, sensible, and responsible. Reasonable, sensible,

815
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 2: responsible is far better than children on pogo sticks totally.

816
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: But I'm not running for office, Frank, I'm just in.

817
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,240
Speaker 2: A jar hosting podcast.

818
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 1: I'm hosting a podcast, and I really do want leaders

819
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 1: who are responsible in reason, intelligent, reasonable, aren't bouncing around

820
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: on pogo sticks either. I would like it all as

821
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 1: one package. Tell me. We've had some noticeable crackups and

822
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 1: polling in this recent say Trump cycle, right like the

823
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: poles didn't indicate that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. The

824
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,879
Speaker 1: twenty twenty poles suggested there might be a blue wave,

825
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: it didn't occur. The twenty twenty two poles suggested to

826
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 1: be a red wave that didn't occur. You know, we've

827
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 1: talked a lot about the emotional side of campaigning, but

828
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: on the day to drive inside on the statistical side

829
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: and the analytical side of polling. Do you think this

830
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: is just power for the course, Sometimes you get it

831
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: wrong because there are margins of errors and people interpret

832
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: the data in different ways. Or do you think something's

833
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: gone off in terms of the methodology around polling.

834
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 2: I actually think the latter, And this is why I

835
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 2: say to other pollsters in my profession, stop making projections,

836
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: because every time you do, you embarrass yourself. Twenty sixteen,

837
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 2: the problem there was not people lying to the pollsters.

838
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: It was that some people refused to cooperate. And I

839
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: ran into this on election night. I have always trusted

840
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: the exit polls because in my lifetime they were right

841
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: better than ninety five percent of the time. If the

842
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:51,280
Speaker 2: exit polls showed a candidate winning, let's say you thirty

843
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 2: three centate races, the exit polls were right thirty two

844
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,240
Speaker 2: out of thirty three times. Every time in twenty sixteen

845
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: they were wrong. And the reason why, it's not that

846
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 2: people said they voted for the Democrat. It's that Trump

847
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 2: voters refused to participate they thought the exit polls were

848
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 2: part of the conspiracy, were part of the New York

849
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 2: Times and CNN and other institutions who they did not

850
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 2: like trying to control the election outcome. So Trump voters

851
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 2: would push past an exit pollster and go to the

852
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 2: parking lot and drive home. And because they have to

853
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 2: interview every tenth person or every fifteenth person, they would

854
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 2: then talk to the next person who came out, and

855
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 2: it was fifty to fifty whether that was Clinton or

856
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 2: whether that was Trump. Enough Trump people did not participate

857
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 2: that it biased the results by about three percent. Well

858
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: guess what. Three percent wasn't enough to allow the Democrats

859
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: to look like they were winning control of the Senate,

860
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 2: to make it look like the Democrats were going to

861
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: have a good night. And we realized by about nine

862
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 2: pm that evening that the exit polls were wrong. But

863
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 2: I emphasize it, it's not because people lie, it's because

864
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: they don't participate. The same thing happened in twenty twenty.

865
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 2: I remember ABC News had a survey in Wisconsin that

866
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 2: had Trump losing by some ridiculous number, and it was

867
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 2: an embarrassment. All the polls in certain states were off.

868
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 2: And that's because they were trying to overcompensate for what

869
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 2: happened in twenty sixteen. Use polling to understand why people

870
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 2: think the way they do. Use polling almost as an

871
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 2: X ray, to a diagnostic of what's right and what's wrong,

872
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 2: whether in a business or politics or some sort of

873
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 2: social issue. But stop making guesses about the future, because

874
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 2: you're going to get it wrong.

875
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 1: In that landscape. Do you think any of the current

876
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 1: polling around Trump. He has double digit leads within the

877
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 1: Republican field, and he and Biden are polling more or

878
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 1: less even, and it had to head national matchup. Do

879
00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 1: you have any observations about the qu of that polling

880
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 1: right now?

881
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 2: I don't trust the outlying poll There's one survey that

882
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 2: has Trump beating Bien by ten points. I don't believe it.

883
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 2: I tend to use the real Clear Politics average of

884
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 2: polls because that gets rid of the outliers that are

885
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 2: too democratic and to Republican. I think for the most

886
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 2: part that real clear average is what will happen. But

887
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 2: I emphasize to the listener that we don't elect our

888
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 2: president by popular vote. We elect them by electoral college,

889
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 2: and if you win the right votes in the right

890
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: states that can allow you to lose the popular vote

891
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 2: by one, two or even three percent. Hillary Clinton got

892
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 2: millions of votes more than Donald Trump in twenty sixteen,

893
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: so the polling was actually rather accurate. It just didn't

894
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 2: record it in those individual states, and the same thing

895
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 2: could happen again in twenty twenty four.

896
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: I always like to ask people at the end of

897
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,760
Speaker 1: the show what they've learned, you know, what their own

898
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 1: educational moment was. What have you learned about polling and

899
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 1: messaging in the Trump era that you didn't know before.

900
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: I teach all across the globe, and my students teach

901
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 2: me and explain to me the results of the polling

902
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 2: that I do across the globe. My African students the

903
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 2: African Leadership University taught me that we have completely neglected

904
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 2: an entire continent, the kindest, warmest, most hopeful people on

905
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 2: the face of the earth, and the West has ignored

906
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 2: them or forgotten them. I've learned from my students at

907
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: West Point about responsibility and service and civility and decency,

908
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 2: and that if they can do it at the military academies,

909
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 2: why can't the rest of America do it. I've learned

910
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 2: from my students at Raleigh College in the UK that

911
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 2: education can work. You don't have to do woke, you

912
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 2: don't have to do cancel culture, That students can feel

913
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 2: safe to articulate an opposing point of view and professors

914
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 2: not only don't punish them, but they actually welcome it

915
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 2: in a responsible fashion. I've learned from my students at

916
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 2: USC that so much of what's being taught in high

917
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 2: schools is not being remembered in college, and that if

918
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 2: you allow students to write people off because you disagree

919
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 2: with them, or you have something against a position they stand,

920
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: then you're not hearing every point of view. My students

921
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 2: teach me that I have to listen, I have to explore,

922
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 2: I have to ask, and never ever ever be satisfied

923
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 2: with the first answer you get, because there's a reason

924
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:56,359
Speaker 2: behind that and a reason behind that reason. And it's

925
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: like the peeling of an onion. If you can get

926
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 2: to the center, may be painful, it may make your cry,

927
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 2: but if you get to the core, you can actually

928
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 2: do good. You can actually fix a problem. If you

929
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: understand why, you can learn how. And that's what it's

930
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 2: taught me.

931
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: Frank, we're out of time, I feel like we could

932
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:21,320
Speaker 1: have kept going.

933
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.

934
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,760
Speaker 1: Frank Luntz is a political and communications consultant and polster.

935
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 1: You can find him at fi LUNs dot com. Here

936
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 1: at crash Course, we believe the collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising,

937
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's Crash Course, I learned that

938
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: facts matter very much to Frank Luntz, as they should.

939
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 1: They should matter to all of us, because in an

940
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 1: era full of disinformation, facts still matter. What did you learn?

941
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. You can tweet at

942
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:56,359
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion or me at Tim

943
00:53:56,400 --> 00:54:00,359
Speaker 1: O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also

944
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and

945
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 1: leave us a review. It helps more people find the show.

946
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,360
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by the indispensable Anna Maazarakus, Moses

947
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: Adam and me. Our supervising producer is Magnus Hendrickson, and

948
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 1: we had editing help from Stage Bauman, Katie Boys, Jeff Grocott,

949
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: Mike Nitze, and Christine Vanden Bilert. Blake Maples does our

950
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: sound engineering and our original theme song was composed by

951
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: Luis Gara. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll be back next week

952
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:30,720
Speaker 1: with another crash course.