WEBVTT - TechStuff's 2014 Prediction Report Card 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:07.160 Get in touch with technology with text Stuff from how 0:00:07.240 --> 0:00:14.040 stuff dot com either and welcome to text Stuff. I'm 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:18.439 johns in Strickland and I'm Lauren Voca. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.239 What happened? Uh? You asked me to come onto the 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:25.160 podcast in order to do a follow up to our 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.360 predictions episode and I said yes, And we've been sitting 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:30.480 across from each other for actually several minutes, so I'm 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:35.199 not sure why you're so surprised. Yes, I don't. I 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.120 don't even know what my own name is anymore. I 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:39.400 just say I'm John in Strickland because that's literally what's 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.400 on my screen in front of me. I I am 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:44.479 a trained monkey at this point. Well, I'm glad that 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:46.600 you're keeping good notes at the very least. But yes, 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.000 hello tech Stuff listeners. I am so glad to be 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:52.720 back talking again today. I don't even know what to 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:55.440 do without a third person sitting around this podcast table. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.640 Any reference to forward Thinking where we have a three 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:00.840 person show. If you haven't check that out, you should 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.480 definitely check that out. Lauren is a a very important 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:06.679 part of that team. She's the one who makes sure 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:10.080 that the things we say aren't entirely wrong. I also 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:14.520 crack really inappropriate jokes, usually about bacteria. Yeah, we we 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.960 everyone's got their job. Joe's the X man, you know, 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:21.840 he's the one who wields the X. Yes, yes, absolutely true. 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:24.800 We haven't. We have a mystical ax ever there, right, 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.160 But to learn more about that, go check out that show. 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:29.920 Like Lauren said, today, we are going to look back 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.959 on the predictions we made and during the two thousand 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:37.360 fourteen Predicto rama, and uh, we like to really look 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.000 at each one, kind of see how well we did, 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:44.200 you know, kind of explore what actually unfolded in the year. Obviously, 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.280 predicting stuff is tough, right, Uh yeah, I think that 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.360 most of this episode is going to be devoted to 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:53.720 precisely how wrong we were, or or hedging around a 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.440 lot like well, if you squint and you tilt your head, 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:01.200 we're kind of right, it's not entirely inaccurate. So why 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:04.280 don't you start us off. I've got our our predictions 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.920 written down essentially in the same order as we made 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:10.639 them in the original show. All Right, the first one 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:14.480 that we've got here, I said that would be the 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.639 year that Facebook would go into serious decline and that 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:23.079 Twitter would see more daily action than Facebook. Yeah. Um, well, 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:27.080 here's the thing. Facebook certainly was starting to plateau because 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:30.040 once you have a billion people in your you know, 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.600 customer base, it's hard to add to that. You start 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.880 running out of people. Yeah, there's not you know, there's 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:38.200 like four point four billion people who don't have access 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:40.760 to the internet. They are they are already outside of 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:45.880 your area to grab, right. Um, but it it's growth 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:51.000 didn't stop. It did slow, Yes, it certainly did not decline. 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.239 Maybe with certain demographics. There were a lot of stories 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:59.720 about how young people were either abandoning or never a 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:02.640 opting Facebook, right, they were going for these other hit 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.720 straight for other sites. But um, but you know, even then, 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:10.400 it was more like growth rates were really small, not 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:15.840 not not disappearing. And yes, and their CFO David Warner, 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.799 in fact refused to break out the data for for 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:23.239 the specific levels of usage across age brackets because he 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.359 was asked point blank and he said, we don't have 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.440 that for you or that or we're not we're not 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.480 ready to share that at all. And interestingly, Twitter's growth 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.920 also slowed a little bit, although it was still growing 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:42.920 faster than Facebook. So I was almost not entirely totally wrong. Yeah, well, 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.680 let's see, I'm looking through the box here of things 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.080 that have to be awarded to people after each one. 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:53.400 We had the squids before you get apparently it's the 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:57.320 awesome mix tape from Guardians of the Galaxy, but it's 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.520 been taped over. Oh what has it been taped over with? 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:04.760 It sounds like it's very Manilow played at the wrong speed. Yeah, 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.600 so that's what you get. That's yours. That's so well, 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:12.560 thank you, Jonathan. You know, cherish it for minutes a fire. Yeah, 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.600 that's probably the best place to cherish it. My my 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.520 first prediction was that we'll see more social media platforms 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.080 that allow users to post messages that only exist for 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.080 a limited time before being deleted, so things like Snapchat. 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:28.680 But we didn't really see anything as high profile as snaps. Yeah, 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.240 nothing else really came up. I mean, of course, Snapchat 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.640 did continue to be popular issue and had some massive, 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:38.200 massive pr issues. I mean, there was a hack that 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.520 got access to a lot of user data from Snapchat. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.880 The Snapchat CEO had some personal emails that leaked out 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:51.480 that were incredibly misogynistic and awful. Um A punch, a 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:54.440 bunch of apps came out that allow you to save 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:58.119 images sent to you in Snapchat, which kind of defeat 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:03.680 the entire purpose of s Chat an the worst. That's true, 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.640 That's completely true. There there were some other ones, like 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.560 there's one called Wicker that allows people to use to 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:13.839 send pictures, text video that has a self destruct feature 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:17.360 for those messages. Stealth messengers another one, and that quote 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:20.880 unquote burns messages after a given amount of time. Flamo 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:25.480 was another one. Uh Denote and Confide also let you 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.760 send messages that only stick around until they are read 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:32.080 and then they disappear. But none of these got traction 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:36.400 in the way Snapchat did, so I think while technically 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.120 I could say, yes, we saw more social platforms, we 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.400 didn't see a lot of them, so I'm not gonna 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:48.240 really consider that. So I get, oh, apparently I get 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:55.160 a plastic lay from Hawaii with the flowers missing, So well, 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.520 that's really it's plastic tubing with a couple of pedals on. 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.080 That's sort of minimalist. It's kind of nice, I guess, 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:04.839 you know, if you want to be all hipster ish. Alright. 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:09.320 My next one was that um price over quality will 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:14.640 dictate consumer purchasing decisions in and that therefore Apple would 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.560 lose uh market share to Android as part of that. 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:24.400 This is a hard one because we finding definitive market numbers. 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:26.680 I mean a lot of a lot of companies put 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:32.040 out uh kind of suspected numbers and proposed reports, but 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.520 they don't always come right out with how they arrived 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:38.360 at those numbers. Sometimes they'll do things like they'll analyze 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.160 traffic and they'll see, all right, well, this much traffic 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:44.120 came from Windows based machines, and this much traffic came 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.960 from Apple's based machines. So extrapolating from that data, we 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:50.520 assume the market shares this. But that just assumes that 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:55.880 the the browsing habits of both populations are exactly the same. 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.920 Right what if what if Apple Apple folks just don't 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.240 go on the internet very much? Yeah, maybe all we 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.560 do is play but jewel, that might mean that you 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.680 would get wrong answers. Anyway. The reason why we say 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:10.480 that this is because it's it's tough to say. I mean, 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:14.920 it is true. Android definitely has the market share over 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:21.680 over iOS. Oh yeah, yeah. According to a July report 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:26.560 from b GR, Android had sixty one nine percent of 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:29.559 the US market share as opposed to Apple with thirty 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:33.920 two point five. And then if you look at internationally, 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.240 we're talking eighty two point seven percent market share for Android. 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:40.920 That's huge. Um, that's in China specifically, and then seventy 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:44.760 three point three in Europe. But when the iPhone six 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.840 came out, because yeah, that's that's bound to have had 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:52.520 an impact on the numbers, and it did worldwide, Android 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.360 dropped about two point six percent but was still in 0:07:55.440 --> 0:08:02.680 the majority with yeah exact. So I mean, maybe the 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.760 whole lose market share as Android became part of this 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:10.040 that it's tough to say. I mean, to do a 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.200 full year analysis, you would have to take a look 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.520 at this. I would say that more or less, Uh, 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.240 the iPhone six got people to come back because of 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.560 the dramatic redesign, Like it was such a departure. We 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.880 had gotten used to the iPhone just looking a little 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:26.200 different each year. It had been a while since they 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:30.000 had really gone back to truly redesigning that. So um, 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.120 I think that might have had something to do with it. 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:34.640 And then the rate, I think this one's about half right, 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:39.600 half wrong, maybe maybe right wrong, because really Android still 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.760 is dominant, So let me just root around in here. Uh, 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:48.200 here we go. Here's a stretch armstrong um already stretched out. Yeah. 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:51.559 Well but but I mean otherwise it's fine. He's not continry. 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.240 He's just got really long arms. That's that's. I like 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.640 long arms. That's good, you know. Uh, that's I always 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.600 like getting a hug from someone, right right, it's it's 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:05.120 it's like it's like a big human cephalopod. Creepy. Alright. So, 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.120 going back to mine, I said that smart TVs still 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.959 won't take off in two thousand fourteen, largely due to 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:13.800 the lack of a standardized experience, and a console and 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:18.840 set top boxes would still be more popular choices for consumers. Okay, 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:22.960 what I didn't think about because because here's here's my deal, 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:28.199 I didn't consider the fact that if television manufacturers only 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:32.880 make smart TVs and technically they'll be selling more smart TVs, right, 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:36.800 because that's the only choice you have. I didn't think 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:41.640 about that, which which in retrospect seems obvious. Um, I 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.559 don't know. I didn't. I really didn't think I was 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.520 with you on this one, I believe, and I really 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.839 didn't think that that many Moore manufacturers were going to 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:52.319 start integrating that necessarily. Yeah, I didn't either because I 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:57.839 had seen so many um lackluster implementation is trying to 0:09:57.880 --> 0:09:59.640 come up with the word that didn't have a swear 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:02.800 in it. Uh. But at any rate, well, smart TV 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:07.679 sales didn't exactly skyrocket, but they definitely didn't hurt either. Uh. 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.760 And consoles and set top boxes are still doing all right. 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:14.839 It's it's just it wasn't It wasn't like a complete, um, 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.959 a pretty picture like I was saying in my prediction. 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:20.760 So I was kind of in the same boat, like 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:27.559 wrong somewhere around there. So I get se of a sandwich. Oh, 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:31.320 I have no idea how long that's been in here. Well, 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.400 that's shady and I wouldn't recommend eating it. No, I 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:36.760 think I'm just gonna put that next to the lay 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.959 and just just forget about it for now. That sounds 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.400 like a good plan. Well, well, Colin has Matt Team 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:45.640 as soon as possible. Uh. My next prediction was that 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:50.280 fitness trackers would really take off in like beyond early 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.880 adopters to the mainstream, Like I believe that like your 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.080 grandma and your cat are going to have a fitness tracker, 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:57.760 which is I think it's what I said. Yeah, and 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.959 I think you were right. I mean, the ownership of 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:04.040 fitness devices doubled in two thousand fourteen, So now it 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.959 was no longer that health nut down the street. Who 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.079 who gets all the that marathon or that you know? 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.640 It's right now, it's like everybody. I mean, I'm wearing 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.679 one right now. I'm only not because mine was out 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.280 of batteries today. Oh so you had to charge it. Yeah, 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:24.080 my charge mine last night. So the same sort of thing. Yeah. 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:26.520 And in fact, I had added on to your prediction. 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.600 I had said that wearable computers in general would get 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.160 a big boost in two thousand fourteen, fitness tractors being 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:34.079 in the lead, and you were also correct. Yeah, it 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.720 turns out that Business Insider was saying that the market 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.320 for wearables doubled in two thousand fourteen, not just for fitness, 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:44.000 but for everything. And plus Apple announced it's smart watch finally. Yeah, 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:45.599 we won't be able to get our hands on it 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.880 till two thousand fifteen. Right, But okay, so so doubled. 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:52.679 Give me an idea of the numbers behind the word double, yeah, 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:55.400 because that could mean like there were twenty last year 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.959 and now there are forty that would not be that exciting. 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.839 Two point five billion to five bill in dollars, that's 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.559 that's a big amount of money. That is not small. 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:07.679 It's just gonna keep getting bigger. So because we both 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:10.880 were totally spot on, we both get it looks like 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.920 a new fitbit. Oh no, wait, these are these are 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.000 the old ones that cause you to break out. But 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:20.280 it's still it's new ish to us. Hey, and I 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.240 don't have an allergy to whatever semi precious metal was 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.880 causing that problem. Yea, if it was nickel, I'm in bed, big, 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:31.200 big trouble. But all right, um not. Now I had 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.280 another one because I kind of added on to yours 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.559 that wasn't officially mine. Yeah, this one is that I 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.679 said NFC technology would still not take off in two 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.760 thousand and fourteen. Now, I specifically was referring to the 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.640 United States, right because as opposed to Europe where and 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:51.000 time ago, they're wondering what we're doing and whether or 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.480 not we will ever discover fire. Uh. But yeah, Apple 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.880 pay was announced and of course the new Apple iPhones 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.320 have NFC technology build into them, which was a huge 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.760 departure and its first time Apple had done that. But 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.640 Even so, while there was some excitement around it, I 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.880 still think it hasn't truly taken off. I think it's 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:13.840 more rare than than not more rare than common. Rather 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:19.280 to find a store that has a terminal well, especially 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.040 well at least in our area. And sure, I mean 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:23.319 maybe in some parts, like maybe in New York City. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.040 You go down and there's like you know, New York City, 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.480 they're half loon ways the Southerners coming out of me. 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:35.000 But they may have NFC. Uh places like you know, 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:37.280 lots of places that except NFC as a matter of 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:42.440 a manner of payment. Um. But you know here in Atlanta, 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:44.520 we hardly ever see it. I don't think it's it's 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.240 as common. I think Apple is their push is really 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.120 helping in a way. But you have a note here 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:54.800 specifically the kind of points out something else besides Apple 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.560 that could be encouraging an adoption of some other technology. 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.240 Right right back in Bruary, following that really huge target 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.679 data breach, um, you remember the one you know, in 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.240 which forty million US customers had their credit card information 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.959 stolen because basically the HVAC guy didn't have a good 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:19.160 enough password security. True story. Um, So after that Congress MasterCard, 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.360 the US Congress, not a company called Congress MasterCard, and 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.360 Visa all kind of got together and made a whole 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.600 lot of buzz about United States credit cards, all incorporating 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:32.520 smart card technology. By late um. Smart cards, of course, 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:36.400 are also driven by a form of near field communication technology, 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.800 and some of the NFC terminals that are currently in 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.640 circulation are in fact compatible with Google Wallet and Apple 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.960 Pay and et cetera. So um, so we have seen 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:52.920 more NFC stuff this year, um and I and I 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:56.240 think that it might be that those two things together 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:01.320 might drive the whole thing into an actual state of being. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:07.080 Maybe sixteen that's going to be the era of NFC 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:11.080 finally making its way into the United States, whereas I'm 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.360 sure by Europe they'll be paying by pure thought or 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.640 something at that point. But at any rate, Uh, I 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.000 I also thought it was. I think one of the 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.440 other things that's been holding it back is that you 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.400 have all these different competing standards for NFC. You know, 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.720 Apple Pay, Google Wallet. There was a big story about 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:32.400 CBS and right Aid uh saying they were not going 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:37.120 to support Apple Pay, and upon closer inspection, it appears 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:40.080 that maybe the reason for that is because they want 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:44.520 to promote their own NFC payment called credit c something 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.040 like that, our currency. I just remember reading about it 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:51.240 at some point last year. So that's another issue. Is 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.760 just just that when you have all these different proprietary 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.600 approaches to something, some are more open than others, but 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.560 all of them kind of have a big name behind them, 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:04.120 then everyone wants to be that that guy. Everyone you know, 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.320 they want all the payments to go through their system. Yeah, 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.920 I mean it makes sense, but it also means can't 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:11.720 we all just get a lot? Right? I just want 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:15.880 to pay for but stuff, so I get Oh, I've 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.200 got a defunct NFC chip, which is just as useful 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:23.680 to me today as it was last year. Okay. My 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:28.119 next one was that the PC, including both desktops and laptops, 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:33.400 would continue its decline in as tablets became less expensive 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:37.960 and more capable. So very similar to your your UM 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.400 price over quality kind of approach, same sort of thing. Plus, 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.240 as it turns out, we saw some really interesting trends. 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.400 People are starting to hold onto their electronics longer than 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:53.080 they used to because these are expensive things, all right. Yeah, yeah, 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.080 if you're spending five hundred bucks on a tablet, you 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.320 probably don't feel a lot of urge. I mean, unless 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.720 you have lots of discretionary income, you probably don't feel 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.200 the urge to go an upgrade every year. Sure, especially 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.360 seeing as how um like like software that you would 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.480 be using on the internet, for example, is not advancing 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.639 quite at the rate that it perhaps was back in 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.840 the era of the desktop. Yeah, when it was just 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.480 when you know, when when you had when a new 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:20.480 game came out once a month and you were like, well, 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.920 my graphics card can't handle this. And I looked into 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:27.000 this and accorded to Gartner, traditional PCs have. In fact, 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:30.920 they've declined yet again, two nine six million units to 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.200 two seventy six million units in two thousand and fourteen. 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:40.119 Now Ultramobile premium PCs, those super fancy, schmancy, sexy, sleek 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:44.639 PCs that we're going on sale right after CS like 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:49.480 two years ago. Ultramobile. Yeah, that's sorry, that's a buzz term. 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.040 I mean it's only like that. I think of like 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.119 the MacBook Air, you know, things that are just super 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.960 easy to carry around. Yeah, that's the supposed Because I 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:57.760 don't have one, so I can't. I mean, if someone 0:17:57.800 --> 0:17:59.440 wants to send me a MacBook Air for me to 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.360 carry around. But yeah, those those actually went up, those 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.640 sales went from twenty one point five to thirty seven 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.720 point six. But even with that figure, you're still talking 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:10.760 about a net decline and overall PC decline it and yeah, 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:12.760 and I can see something something like a like a 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.800 very sleep laptop like that obviously being a little bit 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:19.320 outside the the area that I was discussing. You were 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.680 looking at the general trend as opposed to like, well, 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:26.480 there's always some segment of the population that you know, 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.119 they like the they like the shiny shiny Sure. Of course, 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.760 of course, UM tablets did see growth um from two 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:40.760 hundred and seven million units in to two nine million. Yeah. Yeah, So, 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.960 I mean your prediction was was pretty much dead on. 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:45.720 So this was kind of a gimme. I mean, like 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:47.960 I I felt like this was a gimme at anything. 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:51.760 Even so, whenever we make a prediction, there's always the 0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:54.520 chance that someone is going to come along and and 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:57.000 turn it on its head. Something that we think is 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.879 completely obvious and completely like this is going to happen. 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:04.720 You never know. Sometimes, like a new company comes out 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:07.600 and they offer something that everyone suddenly wants for no 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:14.000 apparent reason. Uh, girls started wearing their hair inside ponytails again. Well, yeah, okay, 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:19.600 will you get um to clay tablets? So here you go. Oh, 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.640 they're a little bit heavy, They're they're a little heavy. 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.840 I don't know what kind of cuneiform that is, but yeah, 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:28.720 and I'm I'm guessing that I just shouldn't read it 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:30.960 out loud as soon as I figure out how to 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:34.960 translate it. Yeah, that we ever, since we had the 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:37.880 old ones come and take over the break room that day. 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:43.399 I just don't like to to to tempt fate. It 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:45.480 was a it was a rough lunch, it was, it 0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:47.720 was a rough morning. But I really like the smell 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:49.840 of seaweeds, so it was kind of okay. Well, I mean, 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.800 you know, like three people lost their sanity, but in 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:58.040 this place, who could tell? And Ben's recovering, well, he's 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:00.400 doing much better than we should. All right, Luren, it's 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:03.400 your turn again. All right. I said that Windows would 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:06.000 essentially get pushed out of the tablet market due to 0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:09.840 lack of adoption by consumers. Yeah, and according to net 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:12.840 market Share, again, we had to look at lots of 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.200 different sources to get market share numbers. Android has about 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:18.720 forty five point seven eight percent of the tablet market. 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:22.879 Apple has about forty four point sixty one. That doesn't 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.119 leave a whole lot of percent for anybody else. I 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:27.399 know those of you counting along at home will notice 0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:31.520 that that's about It leaves Windows with about two point 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.800 one three percent of the market, and the other takes 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:39.880 up the rest. Actually other has more than Windows. Yeah, 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:42.800 but however, that was just one source. If you went 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.680 to Statista, they had very different numbers. They said that 0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:49.800 Android holds seventy two percent of the market and Apple 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.400 twenty two point three and Microsoft has a slightly more 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:58.000 less depressing Yeah, it went up from two point one 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:01.679 three under net market Share to five point seven under Statista. 0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:04.600 So here's the thing is that net market Share uses 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.520 those web analytics I talked about earlier to look at traffic, 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:11.640 and so they then extrapolate from like, well, this number 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:15.080 of people were using iPads to access the site, and 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:16.840 this number of people were using Android, this number of 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.600 people were using Microsoft, and then we extrapolate from that. 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:24.120 I don't know where Statista, how they how they generate 0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:28.440 their statistics. So uh, either way, you look at this 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:30.639 and it's telling a story and The story is that 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:35.560 Microsoft isn't also ran right, been in the tablet market. 0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:39.359 It's uh, and they had a lot of issues with 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:43.720 Windows eight. You know, people having problems with it, people 0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:46.679 not really liking the design. Even in the tablet format, 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.639 which it was really meant more for. It was suited 0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:52.840 for a touch screen interface much more than it was 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:54.879 for a non touch screen interface. So I'll tell you 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.680 that I got a Windows eight machine at home, and uh, 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.080 and it does not have a touch screen interface. And 0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:02.920 I mean, I I like Windows well enough, but guess what, 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.159 I don't use the tiled interface very much. I go 0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:08.159 to the desktop. So and part of that may just 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:11.399 be because that's kind of how I trained myself, right, 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:14.520 I'm used to the desktop. Part of it just might 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:18.080 be the design is is it's better for the mouse, 0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:20.240 you know, point and click approach as opposed to a 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:23.920 touchscreen of at any rate, you did get that, right, 0:22:24.520 --> 0:22:30.080 and you get a copy of Windows eight. Oh, I'm 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:33.399 gonna add that to that fire where I'm cherishing that 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:37.920 half speed Berry Mantelo tape. Yeah. Sorry, it's just whatever's 0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:40.960 in the box. Right, We're about to move. Actually, here's 0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:43.040 here's a little peek behind the curtain at how stuff works. 0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:45.960 We're we're going to our office is relocating, so we've 0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:47.680 been packing stuff up. But this is kind of the 0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:50.439 I think this is just what everyone's junk drawer got 0:22:50.480 --> 0:22:54.520 emptied into. Yeah, we've we've had this kind of growing box. 0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:57.320 It's got some slime coming out of the bottom. I 0:22:57.440 --> 0:22:59.199 think that was from that time you and I did 0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:01.960 that talk on slow Time. Oh yeah, that was a 0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:04.480 good talk. That was a good talk. Yeah, maybe we 0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:06.760