Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ad with me
Speaker 1: is no one who you can find on Twitter nowhere.
Speaker 1: That's right, Matt Parolt is not here with me on
Speaker 1: week twelve. Don't worry. We're still going to be doing
Speaker 1: the podcast going forward. It's a weird week Thanksgiving week.
Speaker 1: We weren't able to sync up on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, we
Speaker 1: were supposed to be able to sync up today. My
Speaker 1: schedule got a little hectic early. His schedule got a
Speaker 1: little hectic late, so we weren't able to sink up.
Speaker 1: Rather than scrap the entire thing or try to push
Speaker 1: it out later on Saturday, I'm recording this by my
Speaker 1: lonesome on Friday night. Now, if you guys have been
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast for several weeks, then you know
Speaker 1: already that Matt and I are in the Drafts Contest,
Speaker 1: the Pro Pick Them Contest, and that we have to
Speaker 1: take two bye weeks in our sixteen weeks. Okay, goes
Speaker 1: through week sixteen. Matt had always said that he wanted
Speaker 1: to take a bye week on Thanksgiving. I don't particularly
Speaker 1: know why. You know, maybe it was that the Thursday
Speaker 1: games are going to be weird, But we'd always penciled
Speaker 1: it in for this week to be a bye week,
Speaker 1: so we weren't even going to go through our picks
Speaker 1: for the competition. Instead, we were just going to go
Speaker 1: through our best bets anyway. So instead you're gonna get
Speaker 1: kind of an abbreviated version of that. You're gonna get
Speaker 1: my picks and games that I like. There aren't that many, frankly,
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at playing this week. It's just not
Speaker 1: a great week anyway, So it really wasn't a bad
Speaker 1: week for Matt to want to take a bye regardless.
Speaker 1: I will recap how we did in the Draft Kings
Speaker 1: Championship and where we are, and then I'm gonna give
Speaker 1: you my best bets. If you want to hear Matt's takes,
Speaker 1: you must right now. If you're listening to this podcast,
Speaker 1: you must be listening to the Daily Juice podcast. If
Speaker 1: you're not, you're just missing out. Go to any place
Speaker 1: you find podcasts, search for the Daily Juice. It's Matt
Speaker 1: does a fifteen minute podcast breaking down his best bets
Speaker 1: of the day in every sport that he can, and
Speaker 1: he's going to give you his NFL picks. Also, don't
Speaker 1: forget to tune in to his live stream on Sunday morning,
Speaker 1: eleven am to twelve pm Eastern Time on our YouTube
Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Bros. He's gonna be there.
Speaker 1: He does it for an hour. He gives his best
Speaker 1: prop bets. I after I run through my projections on
Speaker 1: Saturday night, I give him my best prop bets. So
Speaker 1: we've got a lot of good stuff there. But for now,
Speaker 1: we're going to go through each and every game. Now
Speaker 1: we're gonna do it a little differently here. Okay, Usually
Speaker 1: Matt and I go back and forth and we each
Speaker 1: give our best bet based on the Draft Kings picks. Now,
Speaker 1: the Draft Kings lines they come out on Wednesday. So
Speaker 1: you if you've been paying attention this week, you know
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of information that's come out over
Speaker 1: the last couple of days, a lot of COVID news,
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries. So the lines have moved pretty
Speaker 1: significantly from the DraftKings lines. Anyway, So what I'm going
Speaker 1: to do is this, we have a bet analyzer. Okay,
Speaker 1: we have people from all around the industry people who
Speaker 1: are making picks and submit their picks on the over under,
Speaker 1: against the spread, even on the money line, and there's
Speaker 1: an accuracy competition like they do at Fantasy Pros. When
Speaker 1: you look at our bet analyzer, which right now is
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com, slash NFL slash bet hyphen Analyzer,
Speaker 1: there may be a short URL to that, but that's
Speaker 1: what I'm looking at. Anyway. That is going to show
Speaker 1: you the consensus of how many analysts are picking one
Speaker 1: side versus the other side. So what I'm gonna do
Speaker 1: is I'm gonna go through each game based on the
Speaker 1: order of how many analysts are sort of one sided
Speaker 1: on that game, and we'll touch on each and every game.
Speaker 1: I'll let you know if I have a lean on
Speaker 1: it or if I don't. It's probably gonna be a
Speaker 1: little quicker than our usual Betting Pros NFL podcast, But
Speaker 1: you know whatever, you don't want to listen to me
Speaker 1: talk for like an hour anyway before we get into it.
Speaker 1: Reminder about discord Bettingpros dot com slash chat. We are
Speaker 1: giving away an AJ Brown signed helmet. If you just
Speaker 1: go in there, you go in, you'll see it there's
Speaker 1: an aj Brown giveaway you just put in Betting Pros
Speaker 1: you show that you're entered. I said it's going to
Speaker 1: run through the end of November, so you got a
Speaker 1: couple more days here, but go ahead again. Betting pro
Speaker 1: dot Com slash chat talk about sports betting with tons
Speaker 1: of people who are interested in in it as well. Second,
Speaker 1: if you like prop bets, we have our prop bet
Speaker 1: cheat cheat go to betting pros dot com slash props
Speaker 1: that compares the consensus projections against some of the props
Speaker 1: that are available in the market. All right, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna get to every game here. Let me recap if
Speaker 1: you have been following along, how we did in the
Speaker 1: DraftKings Championship two and three last week. Super frustrating. Was
Speaker 1: actually a good week for the contest. I'm not joking
Speaker 1: about that. A two and three week moved you up
Speaker 1: the standings in that contest. Still not great, we're better
Speaker 1: than half. We're probably in, you know, the top fortieth percentile.
Speaker 1: The most upsided picks last week were the Chiefs slaying
Speaker 1: six and a half to the Raiders. We were on
Speaker 1: that too, that loss, the Packers getting two and a
Speaker 1: half from the Cults at that loss, the Eagles getting
Speaker 1: three and a half from the Browns that loss, the
Speaker 1: Falcons getting four and a half from the Saints that lost,
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins laying three and a half to the
Speaker 1: Broncos that loss. All five of the most heavily picked
Speaker 1: games in the DraftKings super contests not super contests, sorry,
Speaker 1: the Draft Kings Pro Pickum Championship, which by the way,
Speaker 1: is just sharp betters. They all lost, which shows you
Speaker 1: it's gonna happen sometimes, even if you're on the right side,
Speaker 1: even if your models say you're on the right side,
Speaker 1: even if your instinct says you're on the right side,
Speaker 1: and a lot of people agree, it's not always going
Speaker 1: to work out. So if you're having a bad week,
Speaker 1: don't beat yourself up. So again, we lost on the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned. We also lost on the Jaguars getting
Speaker 1: ten and a half from the Steelers and the Pats
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Texans. We did
Speaker 1: hit on the Texans getting six and a half from
Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Cowboys getting seven and a half
Speaker 1: from the Vikings. So again, we're taking our bye week
Speaker 1: this week, so we haven't even discussed what we liked
Speaker 1: based on the lines. But again, we're gonna get into it,
Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna start from the most lopsided picks
Speaker 1: in our bet analyzer. So these are the games that
Speaker 1: the vast majority of the people submitting picks agree upon.
Speaker 1: The most one sided game is the Giants laying six
Speaker 1: to the Bengals. Okay, eighty percent of the experts who
Speaker 1: have put in picks are on the Giants. I don't
Speaker 1: love the game, It's not one of my favorite plays
Speaker 1: of the week, but I am also on that side. Now.
Speaker 1: I think probably Alan Starting is a little bit better
Speaker 1: than Ryan Finley for the Bengals, because goodness, we've seen
Speaker 1: what Ryan Finley can do last game. We've saw what
Speaker 1: he could do, you know, three games I believe, last year,
Speaker 1: and it's not pretty. The Giants are rested, they're playing okay,
Speaker 1: and goodness gracious, they are right in the hunt for
Speaker 1: that NFC East. So given the fact that they are
Speaker 1: pretty healthy, Wayne Goalman is going to be able to
Speaker 1: run pretty easily over the Bengals run defense. Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: playing okay, he is playing well enough. They're going to
Speaker 1: be able to pass if they need to. Geo Bernard
Speaker 1: may play in this game. He was recovering from a concussion.
Speaker 1: But right now, you've seen the rumors, right, you've heard
Speaker 1: of all the bad stuff that's going on with the Bengals.
Speaker 1: It just seems like a tea that's in disarray. Six
Speaker 1: points is a pretty heavy hang they're gonna be looking
Speaker 1: at for the Giants. But I agree at six, I'm fine.
Speaker 1: If it stays below a touchdown, I'm okay to go
Speaker 1: with it. Not my favorite bet, but again our bet
Speaker 1: analyzer goes eighty percent, and so if I am on
Speaker 1: that same side. Although it's not one of my favorite plays.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks against the Eagles, this is Monday Night football,
Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of our experts are with the Seahawks
Speaker 1: at laying five and a half. So I don't love
Speaker 1: this game. This is not a game I want to play.
Speaker 1: And you know Matt's position, right, Matt will not play
Speaker 1: a favorite if they're laying five and a half points.
Speaker 1: He thinks that that is indicative that the books really
Speaker 1: don't know. And again that's been out in Vegas for
Speaker 1: I don't know a million years. He's got a lot
Speaker 1: of that sort of inside information. He won't play a favorite.
Speaker 1: I do not feel that way. I don't really care
Speaker 1: if it's five and a half or five or six.
Speaker 1: It means nothing to me either way. With that said,
Speaker 1: I and staying away from this game. If you forced
Speaker 1: me to pick a side, it would probably be the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and that's disgusting. That's the thing. I can't confidently back
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz in this game. There's just no way. Like
Speaker 1: you've seen him play, he is playing as the worst
Speaker 1: quarterback in football. Okay, no joke, he's His decision making
Speaker 1: is awful. If you play fantasy is I hope you do.
Speaker 1: If you are checking out betting bros. You just check
Speaker 1: out Fantasy pros. If you play fantasy, you know, hasn't
Speaker 1: been that terrible from a fantasy perspective, mainly because he
Speaker 1: digs himself such a hole that he's got to scramble
Speaker 1: around like a madman to get out of it, and
Speaker 1: he winds up putting up some decent numbers. They are
Speaker 1: getting healthier. It's possible zach Ertz will play in this game.
Speaker 1: I haven't seen that he's been ruled out yet. But
Speaker 1: of course you've got Dallas Goddard, Miles Sanders is back,
Speaker 1: got Jalen Rager. Travis Fulgum hasn't been quite as involved lately,
Speaker 1: but he is there. The offensive line still really beat up,
Speaker 1: and that's kind of you know, Wentz does not play
Speaker 1: well with pressure, and the Seahawks have been getting a
Speaker 1: little more pressure lately. Seahawks almost you know, they very
Speaker 1: rarely win more than one score games. So this is
Speaker 1: not something where I expect the Seahawks to win by
Speaker 1: you know, fourteen points or something like that. That's just
Speaker 1: not really how they go. And I think you saw it.
Speaker 1: I think you saw the way they played in their
Speaker 1: last game. They want to sort of lean into the
Speaker 1: run a little bit more, get back to the way
Speaker 1: they used to be playing instead of just letting Russ
Speaker 1: cook all the time as they were early on in
Speaker 1: the year. So I think you're gonna see sort of
Speaker 1: a you know, a game where they're not going to
Speaker 1: completely run away with it. So I think the Eagles
Speaker 1: are probably the right side. I think what you're going
Speaker 1: to see if you break down, you're going to see
Speaker 1: the majority of the money coming in on the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: and you're probably going to see I'm sorry, you're gonna
Speaker 1: see the majority of the bets coming in on the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: But you're going to see the money more. Even than that,
Speaker 1: you're going to see more. You know, whether or not
Speaker 1: it's going to be the majority of the money coming
Speaker 1: in on the Eagles. You're going to see plenty of
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Eagles because I think that's
Speaker 1: the sharp side. That is the side I would be
Speaker 1: on if you force me to take a pick, but
Speaker 1: I'm not going to. Next up, we have the Brown's
Speaker 1: link seven to the Jaguars, and that's seventy seven percent
Speaker 1: on Cleveland. Now I like this at six and a half.
Speaker 1: That's where it was in the Draft Kings Championship. That's
Speaker 1: where I was getting it when I took action on it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, Cleveland is the right side for me. Even
Speaker 1: at minus seven. It's one of my better bets of
Speaker 1: the weekend. Look, you've got Mike Glennon playing, You've got
Speaker 1: no DJ Shark, you've got no Chris Conley. I understand
Speaker 1: it's gonna be James Robinson. Understand the Browns are just
Speaker 1: gonna run the ball. But the Browns should be able
Speaker 1: to do whatever they want offensively in this game. They
Speaker 1: should put up plenty of points in this game. It's
Speaker 1: really hard to see Mike Lennon being able to put up,
Speaker 1: you know, that many points, regardless of how good James
Speaker 1: Robinson is. It's not a crazy formula here, it's just
Speaker 1: something where again you've seen Mike Glennon play enough. You've
Speaker 1: seen him play with the Bears, you've seen him play
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. He's not really a great NFL quarterback.
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter that the games in Jacksonville. So for me,
Speaker 1: of the games that we've discussed right now, I certainly
Speaker 1: like the Browns even laying seven, better than any of
Speaker 1: the other games that we've talked about. Next up is
Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying three to the Bucks with seventy six
Speaker 1: percent on the Chiefs. So in the DraftKings contest, the
Speaker 1: Bucks are getting three and a half. That was one
Speaker 1: of my favorite plays. Now. I don't know if Matt
Speaker 1: would have gone for it. This is just if you've
Speaker 1: listened to this podcast long enough, you know that I
Speaker 1: like kind of I'm very much in the by low,
Speaker 1: sell high sort of range. Now, you don't sell high
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs or anything like that. And again, they
Speaker 1: nearly lost that game to the Raiders, but this is
Speaker 1: much more of a Bilo spot for the Bucks. I
Speaker 1: think their defense is going to play better. I think
Speaker 1: marpet is going to play, is my understanding. You know,
Speaker 1: I don't know how many games he's missed at this
Speaker 1: point with a concussion, but I know he practiced full
Speaker 1: for at least the early part. Again, it's been a
Speaker 1: little I've been out for most of the day. I
Speaker 1: think he's questionable for the game, but I do expect
Speaker 1: him to play. And that's huge er because you gotta
Speaker 1: protect Brady from getting pressure, which you know he's gonna get.
Speaker 1: I think this one is going to be a very
Speaker 1: high scoring game. I think the over under his fifty six.
Speaker 1: I like the over in this game. I've already bet it.
Speaker 1: I know it's a high number. I don't care. I
Speaker 1: think Brady coming off, by the way, after a loss,
Speaker 1: you know historically, I know it's not the same team.
Speaker 1: I know it's with the Patriots, but coming off after
Speaker 1: a loss, he is some you know, somebody who covers
Speaker 1: almost you know, it's like a seventy percent clip or
Speaker 1: something like that. I think they are going to cover here.
Speaker 1: If you can get it at three and a half,
Speaker 1: definitely take it. At three s closer. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs are probably gonna win, but I do
Speaker 1: if I'm forced to pick a side, I will take
Speaker 1: the Bucks even at three. If you can get at
Speaker 1: three and a half, I really like that. Again, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs are coming across the country in this game. It's
Speaker 1: just something where I don't know. I like the Bucks
Speaker 1: in this game as a bounce back. It's a bilo
Speaker 1: spot for me. Dolphins are laying seven to the Jets,
Speaker 1: and seventy two percent are with the Dolphins. I don't
Speaker 1: have a great lean on. You guys know, I'm a
Speaker 1: Jets fan. Sam Darnold is back, That's probably not a
Speaker 1: good thing for the Jets. We know Michael Puran is out.
Speaker 1: That's not a huge deal. But again, Frank Gore versus
Speaker 1: you know, having a little bit of you know, a
Speaker 1: more explosive back and a younger back. I'd prefer that.
Speaker 1: But really, with the Dolphins are a ton of question
Speaker 1: marks right now. We don't know whether or not it's
Speaker 1: going to be Tua, who I guess banged his thumb
Speaker 1: during practice and he's questionable, And I mean Brian Flores
Speaker 1: says he has to review the practice tape. I don't
Speaker 1: know what that means and how that evaluates. Getting to it.
Speaker 1: It Fits is in, it makes me like the Dolphins
Speaker 1: a little more. I realized that he could turn the
Speaker 1: ball over and probably will more than Tua would. But again,
Speaker 1: he does move that offense very well. And if you
Speaker 1: are a prop better I have not looked, and I will.
Speaker 1: I will let Matt know. But if we find out
Speaker 1: that Fits is in for the game, whatever the prop
Speaker 1: bet is for Devonte Parker's passing yards, I'm probably going
Speaker 1: to have him projected higher than that. It's just my
Speaker 1: experience with the way the books seem to do these
Speaker 1: prop bets. You know, I have a feeling that I'm
Speaker 1: going to have a pretty clear edge on that going
Speaker 1: over based on the fact that the Jets are throwing
Speaker 1: out there. You know, tweedled the and tweedledumb in their secondary.
Speaker 1: At this point, their entire secondary is either injured or
Speaker 1: has been cut. So legitimately, if Fits is there and
Speaker 1: he's willing to push it to throw to Devonte Parker,
Speaker 1: he is somebody who I think is going to have
Speaker 1: a big day. Savon Ahmed also out in this game,
Speaker 1: though Miles Gaskin maybe so we don't know what the
Speaker 1: running game is going to look like. We don't know
Speaker 1: who's that quarterback. So right now, I don't love it
Speaker 1: at seven either way or either side. If you force
Speaker 1: me to take a side, I guess would be the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: just because Sam Darnold has played so poorly this entire year,
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins defense is legitimate. But you know our
Speaker 1: experts seventy two percent on Miami. I'd rather take a
Speaker 1: pass Raiders laying three to the Falcons. Seventy percent are
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. Here's the thing with this game, Okay,
Speaker 1: I want you guys to take a step back, and
Speaker 1: I want you to think about both of these teams.
Speaker 1: What we think about with the Raiders is wow, Okay,
Speaker 1: Rangers are a pretty decent football team. I mean they
Speaker 1: you know, they beat the Chiefs once, they nearly beat
Speaker 1: them again. Derek Carr playing extremely well. Josh Jacobs one
Speaker 1: of the better running backs in the league. Darren Waller
Speaker 1: one of the best tight ends in the league. Nelson Ageloor,
Speaker 1: you know, Risen from the Dead playing well. It's still
Speaker 1: drops some passes, but the offense is definitely able to
Speaker 1: move the ball. Defense has some holes for sure. But
Speaker 1: they're a pretty solid football team who you know are
Speaker 1: in contention for a playoff spot. The Falcons, it just
Speaker 1: got destroyed by Taysom Hill and the Saints. You've got
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley out in this game, You've got Julio Jones
Speaker 1: very questionable, and yet the spread is not moving. It's
Speaker 1: at three. It's been at three pretty much all week.
Speaker 1: I mean the DraftKings contest had it at two and
Speaker 1: a half. When you think about a spread like that,
Speaker 1: for me, one of the things you guys should do
Speaker 1: is try to protict the lines. I would have predicted
Speaker 1: this line at three and a half for the Raiders,
Speaker 1: maybe four something over a field goal, because I think
Speaker 1: this is a line begging you to take the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I don't care that it's in Atlanta. It's a line
Speaker 1: that's begging you to take the Raiders. And the fact
Speaker 1: that it's not moving that just you know, the books
Speaker 1: know more than we do. That's the bottom line. It
Speaker 1: feels too much like a trap game, feels like the
Speaker 1: sharp side is going to be on the Falcons. Not
Speaker 1: enough for me to trust them. I mean, their defense
Speaker 1: is playing a little better, but without Julio Jones, without
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley. That may be a plus frankly with the
Speaker 1: way Curley has been running and getting in Brian Hill,
Speaker 1: but still not anywhere where I want to really go near.
Speaker 1: Cardinals against the Patriots. The Cardinals are laying one and
Speaker 1: a half points. Sixty eight percent are on Arizona. This
Speaker 1: is another game that I don't want a part of.
Speaker 1: The Patriots are team that I do not have a
Speaker 1: read on. I just don't. I'm fully willing to admit
Speaker 1: when I think they're gonna play well, they don't. When
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna play poorly, they don't. I think
Speaker 1: Arizona's gonna win this game. They're a better team from
Speaker 1: top to bottom. But you do have Kyler Murray dealing
Speaker 1: with the shoulder entry. Now I understand, I don't even
Speaker 1: think he's on the jury report. No, I refuse to
Speaker 1: believe that. Look, you watch that game against Seattle. This
Speaker 1: is something where whatever it was, an ac joint sprain.
Speaker 1: If he takes a hit, one hit and he runs,
Speaker 1: then it's gonna it's gonna hurt him. You know, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be something where you saw the difference in the
Speaker 1: way he was passing in that Seattle game, there's enough
Speaker 1: uncertainty there that makes me concerned about what he's gonna
Speaker 1: look like. They're coming across the country. I know they've
Speaker 1: had a break here, given the fact that they played,
Speaker 1: you know that they've had a little bit of an
Speaker 1: extra break here. But still it's just not something where
Speaker 1: I'm willing to trust either team in this scenario. There's
Speaker 1: no Larry Fitzgerald here with COVID. I know, we're like, well,
Speaker 1: Larry Fitzgerald whatever, He's a safety blanket there. By the way,
Speaker 1: Andy Isabella prop bets, you're also probably gonna want to
Speaker 1: bet over whenever they come out, because my guess is
Speaker 1: it's not going to be juiced up enough to what
Speaker 1: it's gonna be. You're gonna have Steffan Gilmore trying to
Speaker 1: take away DeAndre Hopkins. You're gonna have them focusing on
Speaker 1: Christian Kirk. They're gonna say, Andy Isabella, you can have
Speaker 1: your passes, So look for Andy Isabella passing rs. Watch
Speaker 1: our live stream on YouTube YouTube dot com Slash Betting
Speaker 1: Pros on Sunday morning, eleven am to twelve pm Eastern.
Speaker 1: Now I will give out my props Andy Isabella over
Speaker 1: whatever receiving yards they're going to throw out there. My
Speaker 1: guess is just again based on when I do my
Speaker 1: projections on Saturday night and I look at the props.
Speaker 1: This just strikes me as one when there's gonna be
Speaker 1: a delta between how I feel about them and what
Speaker 1: the books are gonna set. Bears versus the Packers, sixty
Speaker 1: five percent are on the Packers laying eight and a
Speaker 1: half points in this game. Again, this is a little weird.
Speaker 1: We've got variables. I don't like variables. The variable is
Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky is starting. I don't know at this point
Speaker 1: whether or not that is a good thing or a
Speaker 1: bad thing for the Bears. I just don't. I can't
Speaker 1: get a sense of it because it's been a long
Speaker 1: time since we've seen Trubisky play. He was playing okay,
Speaker 1: he's playing better than Nick Foles played. But it's hard
Speaker 1: to envision the Bears really, you know, putting up all
Speaker 1: that many points here unless they just run it NonStop
Speaker 1: with Dave Montgomery. It's a stay away game for me.
Speaker 1: I didn't want it at eight, which was at one
Speaker 1: point in the DraftKings. I don't want it at eight
Speaker 1: and a half. It's just a game that I don't
Speaker 1: really want to touch. Maybe Matt has a better feel
Speaker 1: on it, but this is a stay away game for me.
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers against the Rams, the Rams getting six
Speaker 1: and a half points. Sixty four percent of our experts
Speaker 1: are on the Rams. Not a game that I absolutely love.
Speaker 1: If I had to pick a side, this would be
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Again, this is something where I
Speaker 1: would throw it out to Matt. Matt, let's say, you're
Speaker 1: really taking the forty nine against a team that just
Speaker 1: you know, did whatever they wanted against that Bucks defense. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is how I bet Okay, So this is kind
Speaker 1: of a lot of my philosophy. I look for by
Speaker 1: low sell high situations. The Rams number one, it's a
Speaker 1: short week for them, right, They played on Monday night,
Speaker 1: played a great game. They're a strong team, brilliant offensive coach,
Speaker 1: strong defense. Forty nine ers here are off of buy.
Speaker 1: They are getting much healthier. They're probably gonna have Raheem
Speaker 1: Mostert for this game. They're probably gonna have Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: for this game. I get they. I don't think they're
Speaker 1: gonna have Brandon Aiyuk. I don't know if he's actually
Speaker 1: been officially ruled out, but they are getting a little healthier.
Speaker 1: If you're gonna give Kyle Shanahan an extra week to
Speaker 1: prepare for a team, I'm gonna take them. If you're
Speaker 1: gonna give me six and a half points, That's just
Speaker 1: what it is. I don't think the Rams are quite
Speaker 1: as good as they showed against the Bucks. I think
Speaker 1: their defense is legitimate. But again it's not again that
Speaker 1: I love have bet at six and a half the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, you know, but it's not one of
Speaker 1: my favorite bets of the week. Definitely not, but I
Speaker 1: will sixty four percent of our experts are on the Rams.
Speaker 1: I'm on the other side. I'm on the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: Listen to the Daily Juice. My guess is Matt's going
Speaker 1: to be on the other side of this one. But again,
Speaker 1: a divisional game as well. You know, it's just something
Speaker 1: where most times I'm going to take the points Saints
Speaker 1: against the Broncos sixty one on the Saints laying six.
Speaker 1: I'm also on the other side on this one. And
Speaker 1: again this is this is not a not a huge
Speaker 1: This is a lean, as Matt would say, This is
Speaker 1: not an actual pick that I'm making. But I do
Speaker 1: like the Broncos. Here, the Broncos defense is playing a
Speaker 1: lot better. Okay, you saw it against Miami. They're starting
Speaker 1: to really, you know, play just you know, they're starting
Speaker 1: to gell a little bit late in the season. And
Speaker 1: they're in Denver. That's a tough place to play. And
Speaker 1: as well as the Saints, you know, did beat up
Speaker 1: on Atlanta, it's not as if they dominated the game.
Speaker 1: It sounds of Taysom Hill look like this incredible quarterback.
Speaker 1: Yes he got Michael Thomas more involved. Yes he was
Speaker 1: able to run, and that's just gonna be an X factor,
Speaker 1: you know, whenever he's in the game. But still Denver
Speaker 1: as bad as sort of they are generally speaking. And
Speaker 1: I know that Melvin Gordon and or Philip Lindsay is
Speaker 1: not going to have a great time running the ball
Speaker 1: in this game. And I know that Jerry Judy is
Speaker 1: questionable for this game, so that would make a difference.
Speaker 1: But in the end in Denver, Taysom Hill, now that
Speaker 1: you've actually seen what he looks like. Remember, preparing for
Speaker 1: that game, nobody really knew if Tasom Hill was going
Speaker 1: to be the actual starting quarterback. Yeah, that was sort
Speaker 1: of the report that went out Peyton wouldn't confirm it,
Speaker 1: but we even you, even you out there casual gambler,
Speaker 1: could not have been like, oh yeah, this is gonna
Speaker 1: be taste mil He's just gonna get it. We're never
Speaker 1: gonna see Jameis Winston whatsoever. I thought, but we didn't know.
Speaker 1: So how's Atlanta really going to prepare for that? Especially
Speaker 1: since that only came out middle of the week. We've
Speaker 1: now I've seen it. I'm not saying that that means
Speaker 1: that anybody's going to be able to solve Taysom Hill,
Speaker 1: but at six points, I'd rather go with the Broncos
Speaker 1: at home always a tough place to play, you guys
Speaker 1: know that with the altitude. So for me, I'm on
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Here, sixty one percent are on the Saints,
Speaker 1: now the Ravens and the Steelers. Right now, sixty percent
Speaker 1: of the experts are on the Steelers, who are laying
Speaker 1: seven points to Baltimore. I mean, the game right now
Speaker 1: is scheduled for Tuesday. Okay, you've got no Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: you've got no JK. Dobmins, you've got no mark Ingram.
Speaker 1: This is also a game. I'm not one hundred percent
Speaker 1: that Dobbins and Ingram are out. Maybe I haven't seen
Speaker 1: today again the whole COVID protocol, which, to be fair,
Speaker 1: are are great guys at Fantasy Pros had to remind
Speaker 1: me of what it was. If you have tested positive
Speaker 1: and you're asymptomatic, then you can actually be cleared to
Speaker 1: play within five days if you get two negative tests. Now,
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not Dobbins and Ingram were symptomatic.
Speaker 1: If they were symptomatic, it's ten days and they would
Speaker 1: be out for this game guaranteed. I don't know whether
Speaker 1: they're symptomatic or asymptomatic, but I think that regardless, given
Speaker 1: the fact that it's been an outbreak, that's really just
Speaker 1: a guard against false tests. So my guess is neither
Speaker 1: guy would test negative in the upcoming games, and so
Speaker 1: they're probably out for this game. So you've got RG three,
Speaker 1: You've got Gus Edwards, who's fine, you know, perfectly capable
Speaker 1: back going against the Steelers. I guess you got to
Speaker 1: take the Steelers, but it's just it's not a game
Speaker 1: that I really want to go near. It's just not
Speaker 1: I realize that you can be like, wow, Steelers, you
Speaker 1: know you got to take this. It's RG three. I
Speaker 1: don't know, man. I mean, you know, the Ravens had
Speaker 1: a workable offense and Lamar Jackson has not been passing
Speaker 1: well at all throughout this RG three can run the
Speaker 1: exact same type of offense that they want to run.
Speaker 1: So if I have to take a side, I would
Speaker 1: take the Steelers. But again, as much as it seems
Speaker 1: like wow, lank seven, given all the injuries that might
Speaker 1: be tempting, I get it to supercent of our experts agree.
Speaker 1: It's not a game that I'm going there. Titans are
Speaker 1: the Colts. The Titans are getting fifty nine percent of
Speaker 1: the bets getting three points. Now on the DraftKings contest,
Speaker 1: they're getting three and a half points. This was my
Speaker 1: favorite play of the week, the Titans getting three and
Speaker 1: a half points. I also like the money line, which
Speaker 1: I believe is at plus one point fifty five for
Speaker 1: the Titans. I bet both of these. This is my
Speaker 1: bet for this week. I realized that the teams played
Speaker 1: two weeks ago and the Colts won pretty substantially, but
Speaker 1: they weren't in the first half at all. You looked
Speaker 1: at that game early on, you thought that the Titans
Speaker 1: were maybe gonna be able to run with it early on.
Speaker 1: Then the Nihim Hines nonsense happened. All Jonathan Taylor fantasy
Speaker 1: managers were very upset, but the Colts kind of ran
Speaker 1: with it late. I just don't expect that to happen
Speaker 1: again here. I mean, Titans have bad special teams. They
Speaker 1: made special teams errors. That's part of what happened. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, there's no DeForest Buckner. I believe he's on
Speaker 1: the COVID list. Derrick Henry is gonna continue to run.
Speaker 1: This is Derrick Henry time. Guys. We're into the last
Speaker 1: five games of the season. Whatever. This is where he runs.
Speaker 1: This is where he gets going last. You know, from
Speaker 1: week twelve through week seventeen. Just get out of the way.
Speaker 1: And with no Buckner, I think he's really gonna be
Speaker 1: able to establish himself. I'm not really buying, you know.
Speaker 1: I realized that the Colts hung with the Packers. They
Speaker 1: won that game. They probably shouldn't have won the game.
Speaker 1: But regardless, Colts are very very solid football team. But
Speaker 1: so are the Titans. It's a divisional game, it's the
Speaker 1: second one. It's gonna be tight. Give me the team
Speaker 1: that's getting points I will go with the Titans on
Speaker 1: the money line here plus one fifty five and especially
Speaker 1: getting three if you can get at three and a
Speaker 1: half points, which is where I was able to lock
Speaker 1: it in. Certainly, if that's out there, take it because
Speaker 1: I do think that the Titans are gonna be able
Speaker 1: to win this game going in. And don't forget it
Speaker 1: may not be a big deal. Philip Rivers has a
Speaker 1: minor injury coming into this game. I think it's maybe
Speaker 1: a toe injury or whatever it is. But again, I
Speaker 1: think the Titans are gonna be I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be ready to go in this game. And again, no
Speaker 1: DeForest Buckner. You're gonna have Derrick Henry having an easy
Speaker 1: time running it. So even though you know we're our
Speaker 1: experts on our bet analyzer are pretty split on this game,
Speaker 1: I definitely like the Titans in this one. Panthers against
Speaker 1: the Vikings. Fifty seven percent are on the Vikings laying
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Panthers. Adam Thieland is
Speaker 1: not going to play in this game. That is going
Speaker 1: to be a big deal. Okay, Teddy Bridgewater is going
Speaker 1: to play in this game. That's good. The Vikings have
Speaker 1: no secondary. All that said, I'm still on the Vikings here. Now.
Speaker 1: I don't love it, but I that's definitely my side
Speaker 1: more than a lean. I have bet it. It's not
Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the week, but I have bet it. Look,
Speaker 1: this is again another kind of by low cell high situation.
Speaker 1: Panthers just shut out the Lions, okay with PJ Walker,
Speaker 1: it's you know, the Vikings just lost to the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: the game that they were favored by seven and a
Speaker 1: half ps, a ridiculous spread. I can't believe I had
Speaker 1: to convince Matt to take that game. It's a classic
Speaker 1: bi Loo sell high. The Vikings aren't nearly as bad
Speaker 1: as they looked last week. The Panthers aren't as good
Speaker 1: as they looked last week against the hapless lines. I
Speaker 1: think the Vikings are going to bounce back here. It's
Speaker 1: a little worrisome without Dylan, who hasn't been ruled out yet.
Speaker 1: He's just not expected to play. But again, these are
Speaker 1: COVID tests at this point. I you know, if the
Speaker 1: protocol is if you're asymptomatic and you test negative twice
Speaker 1: in a five day period, then you're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to play. They're not really allowed to talk about it,
Speaker 1: so maybe he won't play. But even if they don't,
Speaker 1: I think they've got enough with Justin Jefferson and Kyle
Speaker 1: Rudolph earth Smith, you know, isn't even expected to play.
Speaker 1: I don't really care. I think they've got enough because
Speaker 1: they've got somebody. His name is Dalvin Cook. There's no
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey in this game. The Vikings secondary isn't great.
Speaker 1: I get it, so that Panthers will be able to pass.
Speaker 1: I think the Panthers aren't a particularly good football team.
Speaker 1: I think they're just extremely well coached, and I think
Speaker 1: that the Vikings are going to bounce back here, find
Speaker 1: a way to win this game, buy more than a
Speaker 1: field goal. So I will take the Vikings at three
Speaker 1: and a half. It was four and a half in
Speaker 1: the DraftKings contest. This was a game that I lean,
Speaker 1: you know, four and a half. I was fine to
Speaker 1: take them. I kind of liked them. They were my
Speaker 1: favorite pick, but I kind of liked them at four
Speaker 1: and a half. If Matt would have gone good, if
Speaker 1: he wanted the Panthers, I would have mixed it. That's
Speaker 1: where I'm out with that game. So I do like
Speaker 1: the Vikings here at three and a half. The one
Speaker 1: our experts are most split on is the Bills against
Speaker 1: the Charters. The Bills are laying four and a half points,
Speaker 1: and fifty one percent of our experts are on the Bills,
Speaker 1: so essentially that's split. This is a really tough one. Chargers,
Speaker 1: of course, as you know, have a way of losing
Speaker 1: games no matter how well they're playing. We don't know
Speaker 1: the exact situation of their backfield. Austin Eckler may play,
Speaker 1: Kaylin Blage may play. If not, I don't know, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be Troy Mayne Pope leaning the way in that
Speaker 1: backfield for the Bills. John Brown is out, that's a
Speaker 1: big deal, okay, Josh Allen. Look at the way he
Speaker 1: plays when John Brown is in the game versus when
Speaker 1: Jo Brown is out of the game. It makes a
Speaker 1: huge difference. Casey Hayward is out in this game, I
Speaker 1: don't know how you're gonna stop Stefan Diggs. Here. Sounds
Speaker 1: like Chris Harris Junior may be back. I haven't seen
Speaker 1: the final report on that, but if Chris Harris Junior
Speaker 1: is back, that's gonna be really tough for Cole Beasley.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be. It's just there are too many things
Speaker 1: in this game for me to have a good lean out,
Speaker 1: which is probably why our experts are split fifty one
Speaker 1: percent both ways. It's not a game that I really
Speaker 1: want to go near. If you are forcing me to
Speaker 1: take a side on it, I'm going to probably just
Speaker 1: take the bills, because I do think that this is
Speaker 1: one where, you know, it's just I bet on the
Speaker 1: Chargers finding a way to lose the game, and to
Speaker 1: lose it big enough. But it's really a game that
Speaker 1: I don't want to go near. All right. So those
Speaker 1: are all the games that we've talked about. The couple
Speaker 1: that I definitely have on. I've gotten in on the
Speaker 1: Titans getting three for sure from Indianapolis. I'm also in
Speaker 1: on the Titans money line, which when I got it
Speaker 1: is at plus one point fifty five. I don't know
Speaker 1: where it is at you. I think they do find
Speaker 1: a way to win this game. I like Cleveland laying
Speaker 1: seven to the Jaguars. Again, if you can get that
Speaker 1: at six and a half somewhere, that's great. I would
Speaker 1: do that, but I do think that they're gonna win.
Speaker 1: I lean Giants laying six to the Bengals. I think
Speaker 1: the Bengals are just They're not in a good spot
Speaker 1: right now, my friends. I don't like the way they're aheaded.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe Allen will be fine at quarterback, but again,
Speaker 1: it's just not something where I really want to go
Speaker 1: near that team in any way, shape or form. So
Speaker 1: Forest pick I lean Giants minus six. I like San
Speaker 1: Francisco getting six and a half from the Rams. Again,
Speaker 1: this is not an overwhelming pick at all. Most of
Speaker 1: our experts in our bed analyzer are on the Rams.
Speaker 1: I like the forty nine ers here give me Kyle
Speaker 1: shanan off bye. With an extra week to prepare for
Speaker 1: this game, got the Rams on a short week. I
Speaker 1: just think that this is a by low Sell high
Speaker 1: type of game. I lean the Broncos getting six from
Speaker 1: New Orleans at home. Not a crazy lean, not not nuts,
Speaker 1: but I do like that game. I do think that
Speaker 1: with an extra week to think about it, monitor the
Speaker 1: COVID situation with the Broncos, because there have been some
Speaker 1: COVID up Monitor Jerry Judy. It's a big loss if
Speaker 1: he's not able to play with his foot achilles injury.
Speaker 1: But I do in a vacuum right now, like Denver
Speaker 1: getting six at home from the Saints. I like the
Speaker 1: Bucks now again, I've locked in the Bucks at three
Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, that's where the lines were early
Speaker 1: on in the weekend. At three, I'd still probably take them,
Speaker 1: and I'm okay with doing that, but I do like
Speaker 1: them certainly at three and a half if you can
Speaker 1: get it. But at three, I still will go with
Speaker 1: the Bucks against the Chiefs, and I'm taking the over
Speaker 1: fifty six. I know that that is a high number,
Speaker 1: I really do. I don't care. I think there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a ton of scoring in this game, so I'm
Speaker 1: willing to go with that without real hesitation for it.
Speaker 1: So those are my picks here. Those are the way
Speaker 1: I lean. Listen to The Daily Juice. Listen to where
Speaker 1: Matt goes. I realize it's not an ideal podcast where
Speaker 1: it's just you know, one person doing it for kind
Speaker 1: of a long time going through the games. But wanted
Speaker 1: to make sure that we gave you guys a podcast.
Speaker 1: This week was a weird week with us with Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: So again, make sure you are listening to The Daily Juice.
Speaker 1: You can find that on any place that you listen
Speaker 1: to podcasts or on Betting Pros dot com Slash podcast.
Speaker 1: I believe it's also a Betting Pros dot com slash
Speaker 1: Daily Juice, but regardless, go to Betting Pros dot com
Speaker 1: Slash podcast. You can find it there. Tuned into the
Speaker 1: live stroom, subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com
Speaker 1: Slash Betting Pros. Matt will do a live stroom from
Speaker 1: eleven am to twelve pm Eastern on Sunday. He will
Speaker 1: give out props. I will give out my best props
Speaker 1: and you can have them all there until then. Enjoy
Speaker 1: your week twelve. Everybody, good luck with all your bets,
Speaker 1: and Matt and I will talk to you next week.
Speaker 1: Pisca