WEBVTT - Week 12 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 66) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:17.000 Hey, everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.880 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.840 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ad with me 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:26.360 is no one who you can find on Twitter nowhere. 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:29.720 That's right, Matt Parolt is not here with me on 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.320 week twelve. Don't worry. We're still going to be doing 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.560 the podcast going forward. It's a weird week Thanksgiving week. 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.400 We weren't able to sync up on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, we 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:40.360 were supposed to be able to sync up today. My 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:43.080 schedule got a little hectic early. His schedule got a 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:45.479 little hectic late, so we weren't able to sink up. 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:47.920 Rather than scrap the entire thing or try to push 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.280 it out later on Saturday, I'm recording this by my 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.920 lonesome on Friday night. Now, if you guys have been 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.960 listening to this podcast for several weeks, then you know 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:01.240 already that Matt and I are in the Drafts Contest, 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.960 the Pro Pick Them Contest, and that we have to 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:07.440 take two bye weeks in our sixteen weeks. Okay, goes 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.279 through week sixteen. Matt had always said that he wanted 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.440 to take a bye week on Thanksgiving. I don't particularly 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:15.840 know why. You know, maybe it was that the Thursday 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:17.800 games are going to be weird, But we'd always penciled 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:19.720 it in for this week to be a bye week, 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:23.040 so we weren't even going to go through our picks 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:25.080 for the competition. Instead, we were just going to go 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.679 through our best bets anyway. So instead you're gonna get 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.960 kind of an abbreviated version of that. You're gonna get 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:34.040 my picks and games that I like. There aren't that many, frankly, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:35.840 that I'm looking at playing this week. It's just not 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:38.080 a great week anyway, So it really wasn't a bad 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:40.280 week for Matt to want to take a bye regardless. 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:42.240 I will recap how we did in the Draft Kings 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.440 Championship and where we are, and then I'm gonna give 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.000 you my best bets. If you want to hear Matt's takes, 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.240 you must right now. If you're listening to this podcast, 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.520 you must be listening to the Daily Juice podcast. If 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.680 you're not, you're just missing out. Go to any place 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.600 you find podcasts, search for the Daily Juice. It's Matt 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.600 does a fifteen minute podcast breaking down his best bets 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:04.600 of the day in every sport that he can, and 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.080 he's going to give you his NFL picks. Also, don't 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:10.040 forget to tune in to his live stream on Sunday morning, 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.840 eleven am to twelve pm Eastern Time on our YouTube 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:17.400 channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Bros. He's gonna be there. 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.239 He does it for an hour. He gives his best 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.200 prop bets. I after I run through my projections on 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:25.040 Saturday night, I give him my best prop bets. So 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.440 we've got a lot of good stuff there. But for now, 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:29.440 we're going to go through each and every game. Now 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:31.360 we're gonna do it a little differently here. Okay, Usually 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.480 Matt and I go back and forth and we each 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:36.239 give our best bet based on the Draft Kings picks. Now, 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:38.720 the Draft Kings lines they come out on Wednesday. So 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:41.720 you if you've been paying attention this week, you know 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.200 there's been a lot of information that's come out over 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.320 the last couple of days, a lot of COVID news, 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.360 a lot of injuries. So the lines have moved pretty 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.400 significantly from the DraftKings lines. Anyway, So what I'm going 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:55.760 to do is this, we have a bet analyzer. Okay, 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.880 we have people from all around the industry people who 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.400 are making picks and submit their picks on the over under, 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:05.359 against the spread, even on the money line, and there's 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.440 an accuracy competition like they do at Fantasy Pros. When 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:10.880 you look at our bet analyzer, which right now is 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:14.760 at Bettingpros dot com, slash NFL slash bet hyphen Analyzer, 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.079 there may be a short URL to that, but that's 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.880 what I'm looking at. Anyway. That is going to show 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:23.400 you the consensus of how many analysts are picking one 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.920 side versus the other side. So what I'm gonna do 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.160 is I'm gonna go through each game based on the 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:32.640 order of how many analysts are sort of one sided 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:34.839 on that game, and we'll touch on each and every game. 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:36.280 I'll let you know if I have a lean on 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:38.240 it or if I don't. It's probably gonna be a 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.720 little quicker than our usual Betting Pros NFL podcast, But 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:42.920 you know whatever, you don't want to listen to me 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.440 talk for like an hour anyway before we get into it. 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.840 Reminder about discord Bettingpros dot com slash chat. We are 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:54.120 giving away an AJ Brown signed helmet. If you just 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.200 go in there, you go in, you'll see it there's 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:58.600 an aj Brown giveaway you just put in Betting Pros 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.520 you show that you're entered. I said it's going to 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:01.760 run through the end of November, so you got a 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.120 couple more days here, but go ahead again. Betting pro 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.600 dot Com slash chat talk about sports betting with tons 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:11.120 of people who are interested in in it as well. Second, 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:12.880 if you like prop bets, we have our prop bet 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:15.080 cheat cheat go to betting pros dot com slash props 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:18.279 that compares the consensus projections against some of the props 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.480 that are available in the market. All right, so we're 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:23.720 gonna get to every game here. Let me recap if 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:25.520 you have been following along, how we did in the 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:29.520 DraftKings Championship two and three last week. Super frustrating. Was 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:32.000 actually a good week for the contest. I'm not joking 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:34.120 about that. A two and three week moved you up 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.359 the standings in that contest. Still not great, we're better 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:41.640 than half. We're probably in, you know, the top fortieth percentile. 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.400 The most upsided picks last week were the Chiefs slaying 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:46.320 six and a half to the Raiders. We were on 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:48.640 that too, that loss, the Packers getting two and a 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:50.799 half from the Cults at that loss, the Eagles getting 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.000 three and a half from the Browns that loss, the 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.919 Falcons getting four and a half from the Saints that lost, 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:58.560 and the Dolphins laying three and a half to the 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.960 Broncos that loss. All five of the most heavily picked 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.279 games in the DraftKings super contests not super contests, sorry, 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.680 the Draft Kings Pro Pickum Championship, which by the way, 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:11.120 is just sharp betters. They all lost, which shows you 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.320 it's gonna happen sometimes, even if you're on the right side, 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.320 even if your models say you're on the right side, 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.320 even if your instinct says you're on the right side, 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.320 and a lot of people agree, it's not always going 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.080 to work out. So if you're having a bad week, 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.599 don't beat yourself up. So again, we lost on the Chiefs, 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:27.640 as I mentioned. We also lost on the Jaguars getting 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.040 ten and a half from the Steelers and the Pats 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:31.720 laying two and a half to the Texans. We did 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.120 hit on the Texans getting six and a half from 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:36.320 the Ravens and the Cowboys getting seven and a half 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:39.400 from the Vikings. So again, we're taking our bye week 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:41.560 this week, so we haven't even discussed what we liked 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.279 based on the lines. But again, we're gonna get into it, 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:48.839 so I'm just gonna start from the most lopsided picks 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.840 in our bet analyzer. So these are the games that 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:55.440 the vast majority of the people submitting picks agree upon. 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:59.880 The most one sided game is the Giants laying six 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:04.560 to the Bengals. Okay, eighty percent of the experts who 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:09.039 have put in picks are on the Giants. I don't 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.480 love the game, It's not one of my favorite plays 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:15.840 of the week, but I am also on that side. Now. 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.839 I think probably Alan Starting is a little bit better 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:22.960 than Ryan Finley for the Bengals, because goodness, we've seen 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.760 what Ryan Finley can do last game. We've saw what 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:29.080 he could do, you know, three games I believe, last year, 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:32.320 and it's not pretty. The Giants are rested, they're playing okay, 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.839 and goodness gracious, they are right in the hunt for 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.039 that NFC East. So given the fact that they are 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.640 pretty healthy, Wayne Goalman is going to be able to 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:45.560 run pretty easily over the Bengals run defense. Daniel Jones 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:48.400 playing okay, he is playing well enough. They're going to 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.080 be able to pass if they need to. Geo Bernard 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.240 may play in this game. He was recovering from a concussion. 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.040 But right now, you've seen the rumors, right, you've heard 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.000 of all the bad stuff that's going on with the Bengals. 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.800 It just seems like a tea that's in disarray. Six 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:04.720 points is a pretty heavy hang they're gonna be looking 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.880 at for the Giants. But I agree at six, I'm fine. 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.240 If it stays below a touchdown, I'm okay to go 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.400 with it. Not my favorite bet, but again our bet 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:15.680 analyzer goes eighty percent, and so if I am on 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.120 that same side. Although it's not one of my favorite plays. 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.320 The Seahawks against the Eagles, this is Monday Night football, 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:27.000 Seventy nine percent of our experts are with the Seahawks 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:32.120 at laying five and a half. So I don't love 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.640 this game. This is not a game I want to play. 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:37.680 And you know Matt's position, right, Matt will not play 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.640 a favorite if they're laying five and a half points. 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.320 He thinks that that is indicative that the books really 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:45.880 don't know. And again that's been out in Vegas for 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:48.760 I don't know a million years. He's got a lot 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.400 of that sort of inside information. He won't play a favorite. 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:53.840 I do not feel that way. I don't really care 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:56.160 if it's five and a half or five or six. 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:58.920 It means nothing to me either way. With that said, 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.360 I and staying away from this game. If you forced 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:05.880 me to pick a side, it would probably be the Eagles, 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:09.280 and that's disgusting. That's the thing. I can't confidently back 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.040 Carson Wentz in this game. There's just no way. Like 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:16.360 you've seen him play, he is playing as the worst 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:21.320 quarterback in football. Okay, no joke, he's His decision making 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:24.520 is awful. If you play fantasy is I hope you do. 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:26.680 If you are checking out betting bros. You just check 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:29.520 out Fantasy pros. If you play fantasy, you know, hasn't 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.360 been that terrible from a fantasy perspective, mainly because he 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.480 digs himself such a hole that he's got to scramble 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.720 around like a madman to get out of it, and 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:38.920 he winds up putting up some decent numbers. They are 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.600 getting healthier. It's possible zach Ertz will play in this game. 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.160 I haven't seen that he's been ruled out yet. But 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.880 of course you've got Dallas Goddard, Miles Sanders is back, 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.960 got Jalen Rager. Travis Fulgum hasn't been quite as involved lately, 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.800 but he is there. The offensive line still really beat up, 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.400 and that's kind of you know, Wentz does not play 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.439 well with pressure, and the Seahawks have been getting a 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:04.240 little more pressure lately. Seahawks almost you know, they very 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:07.560 rarely win more than one score games. So this is 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:09.600 not something where I expect the Seahawks to win by 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.240 you know, fourteen points or something like that. That's just 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.360 not really how they go. And I think you saw it. 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:16.360 I think you saw the way they played in their 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.160 last game. They want to sort of lean into the 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:21.160 run a little bit more, get back to the way 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.440 they used to be playing instead of just letting Russ 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.320 cook all the time as they were early on in 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.360 the year. So I think you're gonna see sort of 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:31.079 a you know, a game where they're not going to 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.240 completely run away with it. So I think the Eagles 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.280 are probably the right side. I think what you're going 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:37.319 to see if you break down, you're going to see 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:39.319 the majority of the money coming in on the Seahawks, 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.680 and you're probably going to see I'm sorry, you're gonna 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.640 see the majority of the bets coming in on the Seahawks. 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:45.920 But you're going to see the money more. Even than that, 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:48.000 you're going to see more. You know, whether or not 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:49.439 it's going to be the majority of the money coming 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:51.280 in on the Eagles. You're going to see plenty of 0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:53.320 money coming in on the Eagles because I think that's 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:55.120 the sharp side. That is the side I would be 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:56.960 on if you force me to take a pick, but 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.520 I'm not going to. Next up, we have the Brown's 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:04.520 link seven to the Jaguars, and that's seventy seven percent 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:06.880 on Cleveland. Now I like this at six and a half. 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.240 That's where it was in the Draft Kings Championship. That's 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.360 where I was getting it when I took action on it. 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:16.280 But yeah, Cleveland is the right side for me. Even 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:18.800 at minus seven. It's one of my better bets of 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:22.720 the weekend. Look, you've got Mike Glennon playing, You've got 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:27.079 no DJ Shark, you've got no Chris Conley. I understand 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:29.880 it's gonna be James Robinson. Understand the Browns are just 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.680 gonna run the ball. But the Browns should be able 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:36.559 to do whatever they want offensively in this game. They 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.600 should put up plenty of points in this game. It's 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.360 really hard to see Mike Lennon being able to put up, 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.559 you know, that many points, regardless of how good James 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:48.400 Robinson is. It's not a crazy formula here, it's just 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:52.000 something where again you've seen Mike Glennon play enough. You've 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:53.760 seen him play with the Bears, you've seen him play 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:59.360 with the Bucks. He's not really a great NFL quarterback. 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.760 Doesn't matter that the games in Jacksonville. So for me, 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:04.400 of the games that we've discussed right now, I certainly 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:07.719 like the Browns even laying seven, better than any of 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:09.880 the other games that we've talked about. Next up is 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:14.120 the Chiefs laying three to the Bucks with seventy six 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:20.320 percent on the Chiefs. So in the DraftKings contest, the 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:22.679 Bucks are getting three and a half. That was one 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:24.360 of my favorite plays. Now. I don't know if Matt 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.959 would have gone for it. This is just if you've 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.000 listened to this podcast long enough, you know that I 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.640 like kind of I'm very much in the by low, 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.960 sell high sort of range. Now, you don't sell high 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:36.880 on the Chiefs or anything like that. And again, they 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.440 nearly lost that game to the Raiders, but this is 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.040 much more of a Bilo spot for the Bucks. I 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:43.760 think their defense is going to play better. I think 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.360 marpet is going to play, is my understanding. You know, 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:48.760 I don't know how many games he's missed at this 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.160 point with a concussion, but I know he practiced full 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.679 for at least the early part. Again, it's been a 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.120 little I've been out for most of the day. I 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.440 think he's questionable for the game, but I do expect 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.760 him to play. And that's huge er because you gotta 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:04.040 protect Brady from getting pressure, which you know he's gonna get. 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.760 I think this one is going to be a very 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.280 high scoring game. I think the over under his fifty six. 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:12.679 I like the over in this game. I've already bet it. 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:14.800 I know it's a high number. I don't care. I 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:17.240 think Brady coming off, by the way, after a loss, 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.640 you know historically, I know it's not the same team. 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:21.840 I know it's with the Patriots, but coming off after 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.960 a loss, he is some you know, somebody who covers 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.000 almost you know, it's like a seventy percent clip or 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.000 something like that. I think they are going to cover here. 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:31.360 If you can get it at three and a half, 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:33.880 definitely take it. At three s closer. I mean, I 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.480 think the Chiefs are probably gonna win, but I do 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.400 if I'm forced to pick a side, I will take 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:39.920 the Bucks even at three. If you can get at 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:41.920 three and a half, I really like that. Again, the 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:45.480 Chiefs are coming across the country in this game. It's 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.319 just something where I don't know. I like the Bucks 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:49.959 in this game as a bounce back. It's a bilo 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:53.480 spot for me. Dolphins are laying seven to the Jets, 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:59.160 and seventy two percent are with the Dolphins. I don't 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:00.719 have a great lean on. You guys know, I'm a 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.160 Jets fan. Sam Darnold is back, That's probably not a 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.000 good thing for the Jets. We know Michael Puran is out. 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:10.360 That's not a huge deal. But again, Frank Gore versus 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.760 you know, having a little bit of you know, a 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.400 more explosive back and a younger back. I'd prefer that. 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:18.520 But really, with the Dolphins are a ton of question 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.319 marks right now. We don't know whether or not it's 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.280 going to be Tua, who I guess banged his thumb 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:26.200 during practice and he's questionable, And I mean Brian Flores 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.559 says he has to review the practice tape. I don't 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.880 know what that means and how that evaluates. Getting to it. 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.360 It Fits is in, it makes me like the Dolphins 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.440 a little more. I realized that he could turn the 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:39.520 ball over and probably will more than Tua would. But again, 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.880 he does move that offense very well. And if you 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.480 are a prop better I have not looked, and I will. 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.920 I will let Matt know. But if we find out 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.680 that Fits is in for the game, whatever the prop 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.160 bet is for Devonte Parker's passing yards, I'm probably going 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:56.440 to have him projected higher than that. It's just my 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.440 experience with the way the books seem to do these 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.120 prop bets. You know, I have a feeling that I'm 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:04.319 going to have a pretty clear edge on that going 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:07.240 over based on the fact that the Jets are throwing 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:10.280 out there. You know, tweedled the and tweedledumb in their secondary. 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.280 At this point, their entire secondary is either injured or 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.679 has been cut. So legitimately, if Fits is there and 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.800 he's willing to push it to throw to Devonte Parker, 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.000 he is somebody who I think is going to have 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.480 a big day. Savon Ahmed also out in this game, 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:27.760 though Miles Gaskin maybe so we don't know what the 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:29.280 running game is going to look like. We don't know 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.280 who's that quarterback. So right now, I don't love it 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.720 at seven either way or either side. If you force 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.520 me to take a side, I guess would be the Dolphins, 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.080 just because Sam Darnold has played so poorly this entire year, 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:45.520 and the Dolphins defense is legitimate. But you know our 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:49.160 experts seventy two percent on Miami. I'd rather take a 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:53.760 pass Raiders laying three to the Falcons. Seventy percent are 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.720 on the Raiders. Here's the thing with this game, Okay, 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.240 I want you guys to take a step back, and 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.920 I want you to think about both of these teams. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:06.200 What we think about with the Raiders is wow, Okay, 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:08.960 Rangers are a pretty decent football team. I mean they 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.040 you know, they beat the Chiefs once, they nearly beat 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:16.000 them again. Derek Carr playing extremely well. Josh Jacobs one 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:18.720 of the better running backs in the league. Darren Waller 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.520 one of the best tight ends in the league. Nelson Ageloor, 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.920 you know, Risen from the Dead playing well. It's still 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:27.480 drops some passes, but the offense is definitely able to 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.320 move the ball. Defense has some holes for sure. But 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.720 they're a pretty solid football team who you know are 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.920 in contention for a playoff spot. The Falcons, it just 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:41.480 got destroyed by Taysom Hill and the Saints. You've got 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.600 Todd Gurley out in this game, You've got Julio Jones 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.480 very questionable, and yet the spread is not moving. It's 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.360 at three. It's been at three pretty much all week. 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:53.880 I mean the DraftKings contest had it at two and 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.400 a half. When you think about a spread like that, 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:58.600 for me, one of the things you guys should do 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.400 is try to protict the lines. I would have predicted 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.000 this line at three and a half for the Raiders, 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.440 maybe four something over a field goal, because I think 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:12.200 this is a line begging you to take the Raiders. 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.480 I don't care that it's in Atlanta. It's a line 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.000 that's begging you to take the Raiders. And the fact 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.800 that it's not moving that just you know, the books 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:24.200 know more than we do. That's the bottom line. It 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.560 feels too much like a trap game, feels like the 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.960 sharp side is going to be on the Falcons. Not 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.800 enough for me to trust them. I mean, their defense 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:35.040 is playing a little better, but without Julio Jones, without 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.280 Todd Gurley. That may be a plus frankly with the 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.760 way Curley has been running and getting in Brian Hill, 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.320 but still not anywhere where I want to really go near. 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:47.000 Cardinals against the Patriots. The Cardinals are laying one and 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.920 a half points. Sixty eight percent are on Arizona. This 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.200 is another game that I don't want a part of. 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.000 The Patriots are team that I do not have a 0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.920 read on. I just don't. I'm fully willing to admit 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.160 when I think they're gonna play well, they don't. When 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.360 I think they're gonna play poorly, they don't. I think 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.280 Arizona's gonna win this game. They're a better team from 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:12.880 top to bottom. But you do have Kyler Murray dealing 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:14.840 with the shoulder entry. Now I understand, I don't even 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.800 think he's on the jury report. No, I refuse to 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:22.640 believe that. Look, you watch that game against Seattle. This 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.280 is something where whatever it was, an ac joint sprain. 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:28.919 If he takes a hit, one hit and he runs, 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:32.440 then it's gonna it's gonna hurt him. You know, it's 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.119 gonna be something where you saw the difference in the 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.960 way he was passing in that Seattle game, there's enough 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.440 uncertainty there that makes me concerned about what he's gonna 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.640 look like. They're coming across the country. I know they've 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:46.959 had a break here, given the fact that they played, 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:49.359 you know that they've had a little bit of an 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.560 extra break here. But still it's just not something where 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.120 I'm willing to trust either team in this scenario. There's 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:57.639 no Larry Fitzgerald here with COVID. I know, we're like, well, 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.600 Larry Fitzgerald whatever, He's a safety blanket there. By the way, 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.040 Andy Isabella prop bets, you're also probably gonna want to 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.240 bet over whenever they come out, because my guess is 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.199 it's not going to be juiced up enough to what 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:09.560 it's gonna be. You're gonna have Steffan Gilmore trying to 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.760 take away DeAndre Hopkins. You're gonna have them focusing on 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:14.320 Christian Kirk. They're gonna say, Andy Isabella, you can have 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:17.320 your passes, So look for Andy Isabella passing rs. Watch 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.879 our live stream on YouTube YouTube dot com Slash Betting 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.200 Pros on Sunday morning, eleven am to twelve pm Eastern. 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.080 Now I will give out my props Andy Isabella over 0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:29.679 whatever receiving yards they're going to throw out there. My 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.720 guess is just again based on when I do my 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.160 projections on Saturday night and I look at the props. 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:36.399 This just strikes me as one when there's gonna be 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:38.320 a delta between how I feel about them and what 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.720 the books are gonna set. Bears versus the Packers, sixty 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:45.639 five percent are on the Packers laying eight and a 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:51.000 half points in this game. Again, this is a little weird. 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:55.280 We've got variables. I don't like variables. The variable is 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.840 Mitchell Trubisky is starting. I don't know at this point 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:01.840 whether or not that is a good thing or a 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:06.600 bad thing for the Bears. I just don't. I can't 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:08.720 get a sense of it because it's been a long 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:12.080 time since we've seen Trubisky play. He was playing okay, 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:16.119 he's playing better than Nick Foles played. But it's hard 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:20.040 to envision the Bears really, you know, putting up all 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:22.679