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Speaker 1: Good morning, guys.

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Friday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. You guys

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Speaker 2: can follow me across all of my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt Timuir Back after the live show yesterday, Hopefully

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Speaker 2: you guys enjoyed that.

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Speaker 1: That was a little bit of a different thing.

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Speaker 2: We're going to do that from time to time when

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Speaker 2: we have new stuff to show you, guys. And look,

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Speaker 2: I know yesterday didn't go the way we wanted it to,

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Speaker 2: but the home run props are basically like not lottery tickets,

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Speaker 2: but we're trying to give you a chance to have

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Speaker 2: an edge to hit a couple a week. Now, it

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Speaker 2: is something you have to commit to a little bit

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Speaker 2: like if you bet one and then don't bet again

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Speaker 2: for four days and then bet one, chances are you're

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Speaker 2: not going to be profitable, so you kind of have

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Speaker 2: to commit to it. But you the numbers plus four hundred,

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Speaker 2: plus five hundred five, six seventy eight to one, you

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Speaker 2: hit one a week, and generally speaking, you should be profitable.

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Speaker 2: So that's kind of the idea for the home run

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Speaker 2: prop and that's why, as Mike Mayer said, yesterday in

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Speaker 2: the live stream that that prop that that tool is

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Speaker 2: up over one hundred units so far this season. Now

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Speaker 2: that's all of the projections, and that's everything that's put

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Speaker 2: and put out there, so it's easy to rack it up.

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Speaker 2: And as he talked about, it goes up and down.

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Speaker 2: It fluctuates a lot, like one day there's no home

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Speaker 2: runs and the next day there's all these home runs.

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Speaker 2: So it really depends on what's happening on the field.

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Speaker 2: With the volatility of baseball, you never know. So just

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Speaker 2: understand what that tool is. But I really think it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: I think it's really well built. I think it has

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Speaker 2: some really interesting tools inside of it. You can take

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Speaker 2: a look at and break it down. The only problem

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Speaker 2: for me is that we tape this podcast around like

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Speaker 2: eight am Eastern time every day, and the books don't

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Speaker 2: normally put out the home run props until later in

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Speaker 2: the day, so the numbers aren't going to be where

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Speaker 2: we want them to be for this podcast, for the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice. So that's why we did it at one

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Speaker 2: o'clock yesterday, And that's why when we do home run

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Speaker 2: props do stuff like that, we generally wait towards closer

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Speaker 2: to the actual game, because the prop markets become more mature,

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Speaker 2: and we see the line movement, and we.

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Speaker 1: See the books put up a full menu.

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Speaker 2: So that's kind of how yesterday why we did it

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Speaker 2: at one o'clock PM Eastern time yesterday. So we've got

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Speaker 2: four plays for you coming up today, a hard rock

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Speaker 2: bet of the day. Here on a Friday, it's our

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Speaker 2: last day of July. I am happy to watch July

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Speaker 2: leave because it has not been a good month by

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Speaker 2: any stretch. We've been had a losing month. We did

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Speaker 2: not have a great June. We had a flat June,

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Speaker 2: but a bad May, flat June and a bad July.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully that means we go into August and we

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Speaker 2: start doing better and start chipping away at that deficit

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Speaker 2: that I've put us to put ourselves into here at

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. But we have a lot of year left.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of bets to come. It's only

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Speaker 2: all against the first. Let's keep rolling here with us

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Speaker 2: today the opportunity to bet props.

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Speaker 1: I have a prop bet for you today.

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Speaker 2: I have got three bets in baseball, two sides one,

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Speaker 2: three sides in one prop. We've got a ton of

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Speaker 2: props available on the propbt cheat sheet. Those populate pretty

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Speaker 2: quick because the books tend to put out the prop

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Speaker 2: bets pretty fast. So anytime in the morning you can

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Speaker 2: check out the propbet cheat sheet bettingpros dot com slash

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Speaker 2: MLB props. You can see the five star plays that

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Speaker 2: have been very profitable this year for US. I have

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Speaker 2: a five star play for US coming up today. You

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Speaker 2: guys can check it out by going to bettingpros dot

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Speaker 2: com slash m LB props.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's start with the with the bet we've.

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Speaker 2: Made consistently, and that is taking Foster Griffin on the

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Speaker 2: money line. The problem with this game is that it's

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Speaker 2: the Braves and it's Bryce Elder going for the Braves.

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Speaker 2: So the Nationals have won two games in a row.

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Speaker 2: They beat the Mets one nothing. They beat the Nationals

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Speaker 2: five to four. Continuing here, Sorry that was a brave

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Speaker 2: Sorry the Braves did that?

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Speaker 1: Excuse me? Excuse me.

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Speaker 2: The Braves beat the Mental one nothing and the Nationals

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Speaker 2: five to four in the last game. The Nationals are

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Speaker 2: thirty two and twenty one on the road. This is

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Speaker 2: a wild year for Washington. They're bad at home, they're

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Speaker 2: great on the road. The Braves are great at home.

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Speaker 2: They're thirty three and twenty. Bryce Elder goes up against

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Speaker 2: Foster Griffin. Foster Griffin is twelve and two with a

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Speaker 2: two point seven to six ERA. Why no one's talking

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Speaker 2: about him for the National League, cy Young, I have

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Speaker 2: no idea.

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Speaker 1: They probably should.

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Speaker 2: He's been tremendous this year, and he's been great for

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Speaker 2: us to bet on.

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Speaker 1: He was the loser of the All Star Game. Who cares.

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Speaker 2: His last seven starts have ended in wins for the

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Speaker 2: Washington Nationals. That's all we need to know here for

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Speaker 2: this bet or betting. This trend five three winners over Arizona,

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Speaker 2: five to two winners over the Oakland Slash, Sacramento Slash Vegas,

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Speaker 2: A's eight to two winner over Houston, nine to five

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Speaker 2: winner over Pittsburgh, four to three winner over the Baltimore Orioles,

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Speaker 2: four to one winner over the Philadelphia Phillies, six to

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Speaker 2: four winner over the k C Royals. Most of those

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Speaker 2: games were at home, mind you. Okay, just two of

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Speaker 2: those games were road games, but they were on the road,

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Speaker 2: and he has done very well on the road this year.

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Speaker 2: He's six and one with a two point six to

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Speaker 2: three ERA. His Roady ray is below his Homy ray

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Speaker 2: of two point nine. Both six and one marks for

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Speaker 2: Foster Griffin. Two to five batting average on the road,

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Speaker 2: two thirty one batting average at home. He's been great,

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Speaker 2: nineteen earned runs in both, and he's pitched more road

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Speaker 2: more road innings than at home innings sixty five on

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Speaker 2: the road, fifty nine at home, nineteen innings earned in both.

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Speaker 2: I know we're facing a heck of a player, heck

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Speaker 2: of a pitcher in Bryce Elder, and you could bet

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Speaker 2: the under in this game. I think under is a

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Speaker 2: good play as well. I miss me in totals right now.

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Speaker 2: Give an extra innings and everything else. I'm out on

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Speaker 2: totals for a little bit here in Major League Baseball,

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Speaker 2: Bryce Elder lost his last start three to two on

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Speaker 2: the road to the Orioles.

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Speaker 1: Not his fault.

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Speaker 2: He went five, one earned run against the Padres, a

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Speaker 2: three to two win. He went six, gave up two

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Speaker 2: earned runs. Against the Pirates. He went four, gave up

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Speaker 2: three earned runs. He is a three point six ERA

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Speaker 2: here in the month of July, so I don't mind

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Speaker 2: it when it comes to the under, but I think

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Speaker 2: it is Foster Griffin let's go ahead and just ride

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Speaker 2: this trend that we've been betting a lot here and

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Speaker 2: take the Washington Nationals on the money line at a

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Speaker 2: plus money price at plus one oh five. Because it

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Speaker 2: is the Braves, and because how good they've been on

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Speaker 2: the at home, good road team, good home team, a

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Speaker 2: little bit of better starting pitcher for the Nationals, we

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Speaker 2: get plus money. Let's go ahead and take that at

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Speaker 2: plus one oh five. Let's go to Paul Skeens and

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Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Speaker 1: They look I know, Paul Skeens.

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Speaker 2: Has been a little bit of a roller coaster ride

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Speaker 2: for us this year, and the Pirates have lost three

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Speaker 2: games in a row.

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Speaker 1: They're back against the Reds.

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Speaker 2: They lost three to two yesterday, but it's Paul Skeins

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Speaker 2: against Hunter Green. Paul Skeins being nine to nine with

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Speaker 2: a three point six' five era isn't, great but he's

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Speaker 2: coming off maybe his worst start of the, year in

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Speaker 2: which he gave up five earned runs to The cubs at,

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Speaker 2: home five and a third five earned six. Hits he

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Speaker 2: did have eleven, k's but they lost the game eleven.

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Speaker 2: Nothing i'm gonna come back here and Take Paul skins

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Speaker 2: BECAUSE i Think Hunter green gets. HIT i Think Paul

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Speaker 2: skins on the road is a good guy to. Back

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Speaker 2: he has AN era a little higher on the road

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Speaker 2: than at, home three point nine to, nine a four

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Speaker 2: and four, mark a two thirty six opposing batting, average

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Speaker 2: twenty one earned runs in forty seven and a third

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Speaker 2: innings worth of. Work it's kind of nuts For Paul,

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Speaker 2: skeins BUT i think he comes, back bounces back after

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Speaker 2: a really bad start last time. Out i'm going to

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Speaker 2: bank on him to kind of figure it. Out when

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Speaker 2: he gave up seven earned runs to The washington to

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Speaker 2: The Philadelphia phillies in four. Innings the next start he came,

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Speaker 2: back he went six, innings gave up two earned runs

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Speaker 2: in a twelve to four.

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Speaker 1: Victory So i'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Bank On Paul skins bouncing back after what happened last. Time,

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Speaker 2: yes it's a launching pad of a, ballpark but it

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Speaker 2: Is Hunter green on the other, side who was a

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Speaker 2: seven point zero SIX. Era the team has lost two

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Speaker 2: of the four games he has, started but last time

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Speaker 2: out five and a, third six earned runs in seven

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Speaker 2: earns overall eight hits given up on the road against The,

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Speaker 2: rockies he gave up six sorry six one six, innings

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Speaker 2: gave up three earned. Runs his last home start was

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Speaker 2: pretty good seven, innings no earned, runs but that was

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Speaker 2: back on the tenth Of. July let's go ahead and

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Speaker 2: Have Paul skins match it. HERE i know people are

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Speaker 2: betting the over in this, game But i'm just gonna

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Speaker 2: come in and take The pirates on the money line

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Speaker 2: and Back Paul skins at minus one thirty five to

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Speaker 2: bounce back after what happened last. Start the player prop

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Speaker 2: looks to The astros in their game today against The.

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Speaker 1: Rangers they are at.

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Speaker 2: Home Nathan ovaldi on the other, side who has been

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Speaker 2: up and down for the, races But Urdon alvarez is

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Speaker 2: chasing the triple. Crown, okay once we turn the page

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Speaker 2: here and get To, AUGUST i think more people are

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Speaker 2: going to talk about, this but he is legitimately chasing

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Speaker 2: the triple crown at the. Moment as to what he

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Speaker 2: has done at the, plate he's been just. Unbelievable he

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Speaker 2: has been a power hitting, Demon he's been a run producing,

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Speaker 2: marvel and his batting average is right there in terms

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Speaker 2: of where we want a guy to have a shot

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Speaker 2: at becoming the first batter Since migy in twenty twelve

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Speaker 2: to win the Triple. Crown we have not Backed Youurdon

200
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Speaker 2: alvarez very, much but the prop bit cheat sheet likes

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Speaker 2: him today on a five star play with a sixty

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Speaker 2: three percent cover probability for him to go over one

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Speaker 2: and a half total. Bases three total bases being projected

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Speaker 2: if he hits a home run or there gets a,

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Speaker 2: double we're there as, well or two singles For Jordon alvarez.

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Speaker 2: HERE i doubt he's getting a, triple but that will

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Speaker 2: cash you for us as. Well up Against Nathan, vivaldi

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Speaker 2: it's A friday, night It's, houston it's a big. Matchup

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Speaker 2: it's a big. Game you should have some buzz in the.

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Speaker 2: BALLPARK i think this is a, Back this is a

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Speaker 2: bet we can back. Here and the beautiful thing is

212
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Speaker 2: it's not that. Expensive Because alvarez has been. Cold he

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Speaker 2: has missed on this five of the last six. Games

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Speaker 2: he has. Missed before, that he had gone over that, one, two, three, four, five, six,

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Speaker 2: seven eight nine straight games before he hit this cold,

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Speaker 2: spatch so getting kind of a depressed. Price prop bet

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Speaker 2: chee sheet likes him to break out of the cold.

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Speaker 2: Snap let's go ahead and back. It You're Don alvarez

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Speaker 1: Are Hard Rock bet play of the.

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Speaker 2: Day we're going to The cardinals game up against The Blue,

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Speaker 2: jays And i'm going to Fade Dylan.

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Speaker 1: Cease now hold. On here's.

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Speaker 2: Why Dylan cease in his last start was unbelievable against

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Speaker 2: The Red, sox complete game shutout Against, boston a six

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Speaker 2: to nothing.

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Speaker 1: Victory but he threw one hundred and twenty.

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Speaker 2: Pitches that was by, far not by, far but that

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00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,440
Speaker 2: was the most pitches he had thrown this. Season one

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighteen. Pitches he threw on the eighth Of,

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Speaker 2: july that was right before The All star. Break they

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Speaker 2: let him go eight. Innings he comes, out he goes

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Speaker 2: six innings Against tampa at, home and he winds up

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Speaker 2: losing the game seven to. ONE i just think this

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Speaker 2: is a guy who probably won't go deep here after

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Speaker 2: throwing one hundred and twenty pitches in The boston. Heat

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Speaker 2: it was not at, home it was on the. Road

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Speaker 2: he's seven and five with a two point four to SIX.

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Speaker 2: Era his HOME era is. Three he's one in four at.

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Speaker 2: Home on the, road he's, LIKE i got a one

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Speaker 2: point nine to TWO. Era he's six and One Dylan

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Speaker 2: SE's on the road should be a guy we backed

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the, year BUT i just don't,

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Speaker 2: think AND i know there's A Cy young conversation going

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Speaker 2: on For Dylan.

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Speaker 1: SEES i think it's kind of a quick hook.

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Speaker 2: TONIGHT i think we're going to get into the bullpen

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Speaker 2: pretty quick, here AND i think it's a pretty decent

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Speaker 2: to go ahead and jump on The cardinals on the

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Speaker 2: road With Kyle lee going where the team has lost

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Speaker 2: his last, start last two, starts but not his. Fault

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Speaker 2: he has a one point three to FIVE era in

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Speaker 2: the month Of. July he's given up three earned runs

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Speaker 2: in twenty innings worth of. Work he's gonna go four

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Speaker 2: or five or six, innings depending on how he's, going

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Speaker 2: but he's been really good for this. Team he's gonna get,

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Speaker 2: them most likely into the fifth inning and they'll be

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Speaker 2: in the baseball.

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Speaker 1: GAME i think you may see two or.

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Speaker 2: Three runs given up here By Dylan seas AND i

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Speaker 2: think you could have as long as the bullpen holds

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Speaker 2: up for The. CARDINALS i think we got a good

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Speaker 2: shot here at The cardinals stealing this game here On Friday.

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Speaker 2: Night everyone's gonna come in and Bet dylan seats because.

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Speaker 1: Of what they just.

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Speaker 2: SAW i think it's a good opportunity to go ahead

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Speaker 2: and Fade dylan sees at a pretty good plus money

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Speaker 2: price with The cardinals potentially getting a crack out a

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Speaker 2: pitcher that might be a little bit tired after his

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Speaker 2: last dominant. Performance let's go with our hard rock bet

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Speaker 2: of the day The cardinals on the money line at

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Speaker 2: plus one for one.

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Speaker 1: Unit hard rock bet of The day on.

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Speaker 2: The cardinals Fading dylan cees Ur Don alabarez to go

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Speaker 2: over one and a half total basis The pirates and

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Speaker 2: The nats on the money line for us here on A.

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Speaker 1: Friday my name Is matt. Parent you guys can follow

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Speaker 1: me across all my.

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Speaker 2: Socials At Sports Talk matt every morning wherever you guys

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Speaker 2: get your. Podcasts it is The Daily juice