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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Better than Most, Better than Most, Better than Most.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 3: We've reached the last major of the season as Royal

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Speaker 3: Truan Golf Club hosts the one hundred and fifty second

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Speaker 3: Open with the Claret Jug on the line. I'll be

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Speaker 3: caddying for our featured pairing today. That of course means

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Speaker 3: our golf expert, Spencer Aggiar, co host of Action Networks

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Speaker 3: golf betting podcast Links and Locks, is here as well

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Speaker 3: as Pat Mayo of the Pat Mayo Experience. After guiding

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Speaker 3: us through the field at the US Open last month,

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Speaker 3: you were backed by popular demands, and on today's program,

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Speaker 3: we're going to do our best to try to keep

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Speaker 3: it in the fairway for you the audience, starting with

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Speaker 3: how to handle the top of the board, looking at

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Speaker 3: the course conditions, shorter odds worth backing, as well as

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Speaker 3: the head to head market and our favorite long shots. Now,

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Speaker 3: this will be Royal Truon's tenth British Open, with most

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Speaker 3: scores falling in between you know, ten to thirteen under

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Speaker 3: and the range for the winner. But in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 3: the conditions were ideal and Hendrik Stenson took advantage. He

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Speaker 3: won the tournament at twenty under par with a blistering

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Speaker 3: sixty three on that final Sunday. So let's start there, Spencer.

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Speaker 3: What are the conditions looking like this week and how

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Speaker 3: does that impact your handicap?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think the caution that I would express

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Speaker 2: to everyone that is diving into Royal Troon this year

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Speaker 2: is that the course has experienced some minor changes from

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Speaker 2: the last time we saw this in action in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Nine holes have received brand new tea boxes that's added

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Speaker 2: over two hundred yards to the property. To me, that

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Speaker 2: distance is really noteworthy. Since you get this thick rough

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Speaker 2: and these fairway bunkers that are one of the course's

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Speaker 2: best defenses against the bomb and gouge mentality that often

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Speaker 2: comes into play with modern technology. Players are going to

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Speaker 2: experience a true one stroke penalty for wayward drives off

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Speaker 2: the tee that includes gorse bushes that can come into

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Speaker 2: play if you miss to the wrong angle. That's going

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Speaker 2: to highlight the importance of finding the short grass when

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Speaker 2: you do.

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Speaker 1: Have a driver in hand.

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Speaker 2: But when you get to the second shot nature of

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Speaker 2: the course, it's not as if the fairway lie is

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Speaker 2: always going to be perfect. Either undulation comes into play

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Speaker 2: to accentuate what is really this strategic link style approach

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Speaker 2: of having to correctly traverse a course and do it

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Speaker 2: from a thinking man's perspective. Trum doesn't necessarily make that straightforward.

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Speaker 2: We can get into all the nuanced factors with this.

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Speaker 2: One of the complexities for me is that when players

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Speaker 2: are going to have to have different ball flights from

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Speaker 2: these holes.

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Speaker 1: From hold a hole here, there's just.

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Speaker 2: This naturally exposed deep predisposition to the win. Shots are

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Speaker 2: gonna come from one angle, you're gonna have a different

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Speaker 2: direction on the next thing. It's kind of like the

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Speaker 2: blueprint and a lot of these link style courses that

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Speaker 2: any time that you have a course by the water,

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Speaker 2: random gusts can come into play. European tracks are a

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Speaker 2: lot different, and when I built a model here, a

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Speaker 2: lot of what I was trying to do is take

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Speaker 2: away your very generic blueprint of how you're looking at

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Speaker 2: these courses from a weekend, week out perspective and try

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Speaker 2: to gear this to what Royal Troon is going to

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Speaker 2: really accentuate for players this week. So there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of that that went into my model. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: it more of which one of the players ended up

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Speaker 2: getting highlighted for me.

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Speaker 1: But it should be a.

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Speaker 2: Really fun contest and a really interesting board from top

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Speaker 2: to bottom.

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Speaker 3: Here just a note for our audience, there is rain

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Speaker 3: and win on the menu at least from the projection

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Speaker 3: over the weekends. But Scotland is one of those areas

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Speaker 3: of the world where the weather can change on the dime.

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Speaker 3: So it's important not to overreact necessarily to projections that

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Speaker 3: are multiple days out because depending on the tea times,

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Speaker 3: it's going to impact different groups. So you don't want

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Speaker 3: to overlever yourself in that spot. All right, welcome back

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Speaker 3: to the pod. Pat Iona Stevens did a wonderful hole

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Speaker 3: by whole overview of this course on Golf Digests YouTube channel,

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Speaker 3: and she really stressed that this course is one to

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Speaker 3: manage picking and choosing your spots as opposed to trying

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Speaker 3: to bend the course to your will. You know Spencer

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Speaker 3: mentioning the deep and menacing bunkers throughout pot bunkers all

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Speaker 3: over this course. In regards to the top of the board,

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Speaker 3: you look at Scotti Scheffler at nine to two, Rory

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Speaker 3: at eight to one, Xander eleven to one, Colin Markala

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Speaker 3: at sixteen to one, as well as Ludwig aberg Ats

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Speaker 3: sixteen to one. From those five, who do you think

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Speaker 3: has the patience and risk adversion to be able to

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Speaker 3: put together four splendid rounds and to win this thing? Well,

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Speaker 3: the way that you've laid that out, that would directly

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Speaker 3: leave me to Xander and Ludwig, who are probably my

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Speaker 3: two least favorite of players of this course.

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Speaker 4: And I think that.

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Speaker 5: Going into major championships, we just made this mistake at

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Speaker 5: Pinehurst that we thought almost the same thing.

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Speaker 4: Like, well, you can't hit into the wiregrass and you're

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Speaker 4: going to be screwed.

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Speaker 5: Half the time. Then just turns out you hit it

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Speaker 5: in there. It's not a problem whatsoever. Not saying hit

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Speaker 5: it into a gors bush, not saying that, But I

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Speaker 5: do think that although Bryson may have said that you

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Speaker 5: can't just bomb and gouge of this place, you can,

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Speaker 5: especially on the front nine. The first eight holes are simple,

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Speaker 5: and you can do a ton of scoring on those

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Speaker 5: eight holes, even the burn down the middle of three.

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Speaker 4: The par five.

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Speaker 5: The majority of the field in twenty sixteen laid up

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Speaker 5: in front of that guys in the practice rounds were

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Speaker 5: easily clearing that, leaving them about like one twenty five

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Speaker 5: on a second shot into a par five. So I

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Speaker 5: think you're gonna see distance play far more of a

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Speaker 5: factor than we did a decade ago. Guys hit it farther,

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Speaker 5: Guys hit it straighter now, and the more of the

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Speaker 5: field actually can do that. The only thing that would

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Speaker 5: limit any of that is if you get the wrong wind.

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Speaker 5: And right now, just looking at the hour by hour,

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Speaker 5: we're still a day out or so from what it's

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Speaker 5: going to be in Scotland, but you know, gus up

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Speaker 5: to twenty five miles per hour or not a ton

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Speaker 5: of rain until the weekend, so it should be playing.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to say firm and fast, but these

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Speaker 5: courses generally do run firm and fast because they're so

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Speaker 5: good at getting rid of the water. And there hasn't

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Speaker 5: been any rain there in the past three days. Not

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Speaker 5: that it's scorching by any means, it's like sixty degrees.

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Speaker 5: But I do think that the bombers are gonna have

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Speaker 5: an advantage at least early on to set the pace

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Speaker 5: if they can get the right sort of wid now.

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Speaker 5: Distance is also going to play a factor on the

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Speaker 5: back nine. If the wind is your face, then the

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Speaker 5: guys with the fewest amount of two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 5: five yard approaches into power fours are going to be

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Speaker 5: at a significant advantage in this spot. I think that

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Speaker 5: we when it comes to Open Championships, I think a

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Speaker 5: lot of the time we really minimize how much distance

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Speaker 5: can play a factor. But when we scroll back, it's

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Speaker 5: fine that cam Smith was the one who ended up winning,

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Speaker 5: but you take a look at everyone else who was

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Speaker 5: on that leaderboards. Just guy's an absolutely dummy the ball

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Speaker 5: off the tee. You will need a bit more accuracy here,

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Speaker 5: but I do think it can be somewhat of a

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Speaker 5: cheat code, especially on the back nine when you're gonna

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Speaker 5: have to listen. If guys can hit a seven iron

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Speaker 5: instead of hitting a hybrid or a four iron, it's

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Speaker 5: going to be a big advantage. So I would be

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Speaker 5: leaning towards your traditional link style players who have that

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Speaker 5: experience with the changing elements of all time, because that

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Speaker 5: can just mess with people's brains.

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Speaker 4: But other than that, give me some distance.

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Speaker 3: Before let Spencer take a crack at the top of

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Speaker 3: the board. What are your thoughts on Scheffler still being priced,

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Speaker 3: you know, sub five to one. Do you think that's

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Speaker 3: still an overreaction and artificially enhancing the odds from a

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Speaker 3: player's perspective to get better numbers on the challengers or

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Speaker 3: do you think he is properly priced given how well

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Speaker 3: he's played end to end this year.

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Speaker 4: It's a better number than we've been seeing on him.

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 5: I mean, listen, he keeps winning at three to one,

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Speaker 5: I think that is overpriced. I don't think he walks

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Speaker 5: into any tournament with a thirty three percent chance to win,

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Speaker 5: like it's overvalued for my taste, but it's actually quite

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Speaker 5: fair based on what we've seen.

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Speaker 4: Spencer. Do you agree?

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Speaker 2: I mean Pat and I kind of broke this down

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Speaker 2: at the US Open, Like the three to one going

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Speaker 2: rate when you had a really volatile course there put

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Speaker 2: me in this position, and I know Pat agree when

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Speaker 2: we had the discussion to where it just wasn't like

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Speaker 2: a proper going rate where I actually wanted to get

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Speaker 2: exposure to it. It's a little bit different here. Five

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Speaker 2: to one starts putting us into a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a better range. The proximity number into the small greens,

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Speaker 2: the total driving does give him a little bit of

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Speaker 2: an ability to separate from the pack. But I guess

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Speaker 2: for me, when we're talking about a mark like this

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Speaker 2: that's five to one and you have a negative trajectory

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Speaker 2: with the putter that I have inside of my sheet,

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Speaker 2: I still don't believe we're getting a proper number.

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Speaker 1: I'm where we have it right now. Like if you

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Speaker 1: look at.

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Speaker 2: Those negative trajectory marks on similar green complexes of what

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Speaker 2: I'm talking about, If you want to take players that

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Speaker 2: are sub one hundred to one that get the wrong

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Speaker 2: movement in their profile based off of it, it's Scotty,

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Speaker 2: it's Speed, it's Thomas, it's Homa, it's McIntyre, it's Oberg.

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Speaker 1: The big difference is in Oberg. You can throw into

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Speaker 1: this mix.

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Speaker 2: Also we could have this whole discussion with Oberg where

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Speaker 2: the correct time to bet him last week was at

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Speaker 2: eighteen to one. All of a sudden, here you get

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Speaker 2: a twelve to one number. I think you're chasing the

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Speaker 2: wrong end of the movement there, Scotty at five to one,

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Speaker 2: when they're is this profile return that you're getting where

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Speaker 2: it's the subpar scrambling that he has from outside the sand.

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Speaker 2: I know Scotty's one of the best scramblers in the world,

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Speaker 2: but he had the same problem when you put him

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Speaker 2: in some of these uneven spots at the US Open

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Speaker 2: a death sentence. It doesn't mean that he cannot win

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Speaker 2: this contest, but when it takes such a large exposure

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Speaker 2: to your card to actually get to Scotty, I'm not

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Speaker 2: gonna do it at five to one. I'm gonna let

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Speaker 2: him beat me. And that's kind of my mentality that

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Speaker 2: I have for most of these guys.

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Speaker 1: At the top.

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Speaker 2: Like for me, it's the one slight difference from what

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Speaker 2: Pat said, and it's the same discussion that him and

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Speaker 2: I had at the US Open. I mean, we could

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Speaker 2: just roll this back into the conversation again. For me,

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Speaker 2: it's Xander and Colin at the top that are the

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Speaker 2: two most enticing And where I ended up flipping the

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Speaker 2: script a little bit is Colin opened at eighteen to one.

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Speaker 2: You can still find him at eighteen to one, located

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Speaker 2: out there at a couple books. I think Colin is

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Speaker 2: the best bet on the board. If you're looking to

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Speaker 2: go up to the top of the slate here and

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Speaker 2: you're trying to get exposure, I.

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Speaker 5: Would agree and you can get him as deep as

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Speaker 5: twenty at some spots. My issue with it is you

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Speaker 5: have Hatton who's still lingering at twenty eight and I

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Speaker 5: don't see that much of a dissimilarity between Morikawa the

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Speaker 5: way that he's playing and Hatton in the way he's playing. Yes,

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Speaker 5: Marikaw has won an Open Championship, but these link style

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Speaker 5: of courses what Hatton primarily beats up in his career.

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Speaker 2: I agree completely on that sentiment by the way I

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Speaker 2: started my card, and I don't know, Michael, if you

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Speaker 2: want to move into the actual outright bets that we

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Speaker 2: have this week or not sure.

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Speaker 3: I also would love to hear your methodology in terms

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Speaker 3: of how do you balance momentum throughout the season performance

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Speaker 3: on similar links courses with bent grass greens, and just

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Speaker 3: for perspective, the greens at Truon are among the smallest

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Speaker 3: of the Open Championship, a quarter of the size of

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Speaker 3: the greens at St. Andrews, and then also performances in majors. Specifically,

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Speaker 3: you have players like Rory who can look at seven

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Speaker 3: top fives in the British Open, a win obviously in

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Speaker 3: twenty fourteen at Royal Liverpool, but how much does that

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Speaker 3: play a part into your model how you view someone

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Speaker 3: in terms of their value as opposed to how they're

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Speaker 3: playing right at this moment.

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Speaker 2: I've been a big proponent of this, as I've talked

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Speaker 2: about it on shows in the past. I build my

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Speaker 2: model from a longer term duration of time than most people.

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Speaker 2: It's a two year running model. As we get further

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Speaker 2: in the season, more of the statistics go towards this year.

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Speaker 2: I think for me, though, when you go specifically to

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Speaker 2: one of these major championships to where we don't have

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Speaker 2: a ton of data for Royal Troon, you know, we

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Speaker 2: can talk about the trends that have been at this

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Speaker 2: property in the past. Henrick kind of broke all of those.

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Speaker 2: There's been a bunch of American winners before he'd won.

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Speaker 2: You talked about Michael like ten to thirteen under is

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Speaker 2: about what the winning rate was. He got it the twenty.

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Speaker 2: I think the real difference there, though, is Phil and

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Speaker 2: Henrik ended up blitzing the place. If you go to

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Speaker 2: the third place finisher JB. Holmes with six unders. So

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Speaker 2: I don't want to look too much into what that

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Speaker 2: answer is, but I'm always trying to find a golfer

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Speaker 2: whose long term perspective is better than what the market

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Speaker 2: is perceiving it. But when you look at a lot

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Speaker 2: of these more nuanced factors that come into play. You

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Speaker 2: talked about slow bent grass greens and small green complexes

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Speaker 2: in general, and I don't disagree with what Pat has

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Speaker 2: talked about with distance. I certainly think that you look

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Speaker 2: at these first couple holes here, look at the short

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Speaker 2: part fours, there's an ability to separate yourself from the pack.

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Speaker 2: And for me, that's kind of a DFS answer to

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Speaker 2: where a name like Bryson ends up becoming more entacing

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Speaker 2: in that sort of outlook, just because I think the

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Speaker 2: general population is going to look at this course, They're

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Speaker 2: going to hear what's being said. They're going to build

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Speaker 2: models and say you have to be accurate to find success.

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Speaker 2: And I do believe there's a lot that goes into that.

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Speaker 2: But when leverage starts shifting in one direction or another,

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Speaker 2: and we can have this Bryson conversation later because I

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Speaker 2: do have a matchup that's involving him, that just goes

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Speaker 2: in a different mentality with it. But yeah, there's I

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Speaker 2: guess to answer your question, Michael, it's just you look

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Speaker 2: at this type of a venue and it's always very important.

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Speaker 2: In my opinion, this is would be my take on

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Speaker 2: it is not to go too much into what we've

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Speaker 2: seen in the last twelve rounds, what we've seen the

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Speaker 2: last go around with it. I'm always trying to build

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Speaker 2: things a little bit broader than that answer.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know the exact opposite.

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Speaker 5: I look at the I don't think that there's any

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Speaker 5: better predictor of what's going to happen next than what

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Speaker 5: just happened, like recent form, recent trends, how guys are

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Speaker 5: playing and trying to peak at the moment, I think

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Speaker 5: is always step one when looking at it's step two,

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Speaker 5: especially when assessing a major championship is basically performance and

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Speaker 5: other majors, like when the pressure gets dialed up, the

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Speaker 5: courses get a little bit tougher, like very rarely do

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Speaker 5: you see someone who's never performed well in a major

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Speaker 5: ever and they end up winning like Wyndham. Clark is

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Speaker 5: such an outlier in that regard, where most guys have

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Speaker 5: a at least a top ten finish, usually a top

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Speaker 5: five or top three finish in a major before they

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Speaker 5: end up breaking through and winning. The Open is more

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Speaker 5: susceptible to that because they generally play it shorter courses.

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Speaker 5: You have these elements that come into play that are

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Speaker 5: completely uncontrollable, and like, listen, accuracy is going to be

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Speaker 5: important this week. But I think the thing that people

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Speaker 5: get really caught up on is like, well, it has

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Speaker 5: to be driving accuracy.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's a really big.

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Speaker 5: Difference between Colin Morricowen Sung JM. Who can take driver

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Speaker 5: off the tee and hit it as hard as they

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Speaker 5: want and it goes directly down the middle of the fairway. Well,

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Speaker 5: what if Bryson just hit seven iron off.

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Speaker 4: Of every team?

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Speaker 5: Well, Phil was hit in four iron most of the

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Speaker 5: time the last time that we played here. Like, yeah,

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Speaker 5: Phil's not a very accurate driver of the ball. When

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Speaker 5: a four iron is in his a end, it's a

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Speaker 5: little bit different. So you have some of these guys

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Speaker 5: that maybe you're writing off because they're not the most

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Speaker 5: accurate players. That doesn't really mean anything here if they're

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Speaker 5: not hitting driver.

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Speaker 2: Before we move past that point, Michael, so I think

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Speaker 2: we're I really like what Pat just said to that

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Speaker 2: is off the te for me is one of the

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Speaker 2: things I built. I wanted off the tee at hard

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Speaker 2: to hit fairways. There are a lot of players that

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Speaker 2: are inaccurate, players that if you just look at their

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Speaker 2: broad sense of the answer there and you throw them

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Speaker 2: onto a venue like this where they're clubbing down, where

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Speaker 2: their numbers get a lot better and projected driving accuracy

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Speaker 2: or projected off the tee data. The question I want

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Speaker 2: to ask Pat is and when we look at current form.

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Speaker 1: Versus the long term answer there?

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Speaker 2: And I'd be curious to get your perspective because for me,

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Speaker 2: outright betting has a lot to do with current form.

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Speaker 2: I think head to head betting, there's a lot more

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Speaker 2: of a long term answer that comes into play.

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Speaker 1: Would you agree with that, at least with it.

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Speaker 4: For a seventy two hole matchup? Sure?

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Speaker 5: I think you want to look at baseline, You want

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Speaker 5: to look at similar courses in the players, and obviously

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Speaker 5: the price that people are being compared to.

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Speaker 4: I can get behind that.

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Speaker 5: On round to round betting, I think it's more like

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Speaker 5: just what do they do last round? How have they

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Speaker 5: done over their past eight rounds, their past twelve rounds,

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Speaker 5: and see how they're actually guiding in one direction. But

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Speaker 5: I mean I've listened, I'll way tell the NFL to

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Speaker 5: coin flip and bet some money.

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Speaker 4: I'm not too concerned about head to heads.

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352
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Speaker 3: All right, if you guys had to both offer up

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Speaker 3: one to two golfers in that top fifteen in terms

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Speaker 3: of the shortest odds on the board to begin building

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Speaker 3: your card for our audience, Where do you start? And

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Speaker 3: I'll start with you, Pat. I know that you crossed

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Speaker 3: a few golfers off the list right away, so I'm

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Speaker 3: interested to see who you pull here at Royal Troon.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and if all things being equal and they were

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Speaker 5: all the same odds, then I would have a different

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Speaker 5: answer to that question. Wouldn't be crossing guys off from

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Speaker 5: the top of the board. But I'm betting Tony Fenow

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Speaker 5: because I'm a loser who likes to lose money and

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Speaker 5: anyone who bets on Tony Fenow knows that.

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Speaker 4: But no better player in the wind.

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Speaker 5: Over the last three years, he's basically putting together a

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Speaker 5: Scottie Scheffler light season, except the potter hasn't really flipped

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Speaker 5: until the last.

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Speaker 4: Month or so.

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Speaker 5: The ball striking has been a maculate for him so

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Speaker 5: far this year. He couldn't ship for five months, He's

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Speaker 5: gained six in a row, couldn't putt like actively putted

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Speaker 5: himself out of tournaments for about five months. He's gained

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Speaker 5: in his past three what has happened, two of which

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Speaker 5: being signature events, one of them being the US Open.

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Speaker 5: Now has straight top ten finishes, so he's played really

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Speaker 5: well at the Open before. He was actually top twenty

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Speaker 5: in his Open debut at True about eight years ago now,

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Speaker 5: and he's missed the cut once in seven years.

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Speaker 4: That was seven times.

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Speaker 5: That was last time he has a top thirty finish

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Speaker 5: and all of them like he's very comfortable with these surfaces.

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Speaker 5: And I think when you say bent grass people get

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Speaker 5: thrown off a little bit because you can put it

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Speaker 5: like you can go to Fantasy National right now, put

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Speaker 5: it in the bent grass solution. See who pets puts

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Speaker 5: the best on bent grass. But trying to think that

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Speaker 5: you know the bent grass greens at Augusta have any

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Speaker 5: correlation with the greens here, it is just crazy.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts here, Spencer, in terms of top

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Speaker 3: golfers that you would like to target now, and also

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Speaker 3: just for perspective for audience, how much of your weekly

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Speaker 3: allotment in terms of how many units you want to

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Speaker 3: have in play do you keep on the sideline to

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Speaker 3: play after round one, after the cut on Friday? How

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Speaker 3: do you go ahead and play some of those live

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Speaker 3: numbers or after the rounds are finished.

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Speaker 2: I don't necessarily a set number. I would say the

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Speaker 2: generic blueprint of what I'm looking for in the outright

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Speaker 2: market is I'm betting to win between seven to ten units.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying not to have more than a unit at risk.

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Speaker 2: Where value comes into play, I will go larger or

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Speaker 2: shorter on that number. I'm never you know, taking that

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Speaker 2: cookie cutter answer of saying I must get to one

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Speaker 2: unit of exposure I must bet to win eight units.

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Speaker 2: I will figure out where my edges are, where do

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Speaker 2: I have the largest deviations in my model, and go

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Speaker 2: from there. You know, I'm somebody that does find myself

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Speaker 2: in the head to head market like that is my

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Speaker 2: bread and butter space that I'm trying to be in.

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Speaker 2: Volatile bets are going to be these outright tickets. Do

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Speaker 2: you think these placement markets have a lot of like

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Speaker 2: in the middle ground there? And the only reason why

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Speaker 2: I give that answer not saying that it's better than

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Speaker 2: what you would expect it to be. I do think

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Speaker 2: books have been very tight in that market. That just

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Speaker 2: means that there's a higher hold percentage at the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, and high hold percentages end up yielding

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Speaker 2: a lower ROI expectation. So when I went to the

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Speaker 2: top of the board here and I gave all those answers,

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Speaker 2: and I was really aggressive at the top, I went

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Speaker 2: with Marikawa. I talked about this being Xander versus Maricula

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Speaker 2: for me, the big difference And when we look at

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Speaker 2: that short term data that Pat was talking about, I

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Speaker 2: took every result in every statistic since Xander's PGA win.

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Speaker 2: That was what I was trying to figure out how

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Speaker 2: to differentiate Xander versus Moricaua. The long term data is

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Speaker 2: going to push me in the direction of Xander. The

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Speaker 2: short term data was kind of quite heavily in the

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Speaker 2: favor of Moricala. Xander's been out gained off the tee.

439
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 2: When you compare the two since that moment of his

440
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 2: victory off the t that is zero point five five

441
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 2: strokes per week for Xander two point three to four

442
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 2: for Morikala. You're gonna get an iron play answer. Where

443
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 2: Xander got aided at the US Open, seven point one

444
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: shots he gained there, three point zero two shots per

445
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 2: event is what he's gained Maricauwa's three point two two.

446
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,679
Speaker 2: And then the biggest factor is the one for me

447
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 2: that's pushed me in the direction of Maricaua is and

448
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: I've always said this, when you can take a golfer

449
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 2: that a premier ball striker and their bread and butter

450
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 2: is not going to be their short game, but they're

451
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 2: achieving over their baseline in that area. That's usually when

452
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 2: a victory ends up happening. When you can merge that

453
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 2: ball striking with the actual recent results that we've gotten

454
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 2: with a short game so Marikawa one point five to

455
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,640
Speaker 2: four per event since that PGA Championship around the green

456
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 2: two point seven to two with the putter. I just

457
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 2: think there are so many high end marks that Morikawa

458
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: is checking the box for right now that it made

459
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 2: him my favorite play at the top of the board.

460
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 2: And then the reason why I didn't have room for

461
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 2: Xander on my card goes back to this answer of

462
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 2: a lack of public perception, which is, I think what

463
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 2: Colin's having right now because he's not getting across the

464
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 2: finish line. And you look at Tommy Fleetwood at twenty

465
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 2: five to one, and Pat has already mentioned this Terrel

466
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: Hatton at twenty eight to one. I've said this numerous

467
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 2: times for these two in Europe, but what you think

468
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 2: their win equity in America doesn't necessarily one hundred percent

469
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 2: hold true During some of these Links style n courses,

470
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 2: both graded as top ten projected Open Championship players for

471
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 2: me long term, each landed as a top ten player

472
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 2: on similar courses when you run hot projections. And then

473
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: the biggest factor of what I keep going back to

474
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: with all these answers is where I landed in my

475
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 2: perception versus what the perception is of both the market

476
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 2: and the casual better. I get the general disdain that

477
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: people are gonna have. You hear Tommy Fleet with twenty

478
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 2: five to one, he's never won on the PGA tour.

479
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: You hear TERRYL. Hatton at twenty eight to one.

480
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: You might think in the back of your mind that

481
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 2: this is a reduced number, but my model had each

482
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: one of those options as betworthy returns. Because of this

483
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 2: higher than projected upside answer that my model seems to

484
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: be spitting out versus that public narrative that I'm talking

485
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 2: about to where you don't have to look any further, Michael,

486
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: where there's a lot of spots, and some of these

487
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 2: are better or worse than others that we could talk about.

488
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: But when you get these spots where in the mind

489
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 2: of the public a number.

490
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 1: Is too short, but the sportsbooks.

491
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: Are skewing a price that is lower than the public perception,

492
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: and you hear Hatton at twenty eight to one, and

493
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 2: you go, I am just out because this is a

494
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: fifty to one sort of golfer. It's why it's so

495
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: important for me and why when I run my numbers,

496
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 2: I always do a course specific outlook Pat talked about this.

497
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 2: I don't care how somebody has played on your prototypical.

498
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: Bent grass screens.

499
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 2: I don't care how somebody has played in a context

500
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 2: that doesn't fit this week's venue. I always want to

501
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 2: find the answer of what is the blueprint to find

502
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 2: success here and who are those golfers that have a

503
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,479
Speaker 2: higher win equity probability than the market is projecting. So

504
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 2: I went very heavy with the Morikawa Fleetwood Hatton route.

505
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 2: I don't normally have three players sub thirty to one

506
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: that opens a card for me, but I thought all

507
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: three of those names were just lower in the mind

508
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 2: of the public and much higher in my model with

509
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 2: their actual inequity.

510
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: Now you tease it in that answer that you believe,

511
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 3: at least according to your model, there's more about value.

512
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 3: There's less volatility in these head to heads, and that

513
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 3: market is kind of where you want to attack. Were

514
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 3: what were two top ones that you absolutely couldn't wait

515
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 3: to place a bet on as soon as the market

516
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 3: came live.

517
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 2: I kind of alluded to this previously with Bryson Deshamble.

518
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: There there is a recipe for success with him where

519
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 2: he can find it early in these rounds. I ended

520
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 2: up betting Colin Moricala over him at minus one twenty.

521
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,679
Speaker 2: Is he overvalued because of his hot start in the major?

522
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: Sure?

523
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: You know? Is he probably going a little underrated by

524
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 2: others because of everyone talking about the need to find

525
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: the short grass off the tee.

526
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: That's probably a guess.

527
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 2: Also, like both of those two things can merge into

528
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: the same world at the same time. But it's one

529
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 2: of those situations for me where I felt like he

530
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 2: can be an okay fit for the track, but still

531
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 2: want to fade him when we dive into this boost

532
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: that he's receiving from others that have pushed him into

533
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: this range where he's a top two or three inequity

534
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: candidate on the board. I went through and I looked

535
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 2: at the first three majors of the year. We all

536
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 2: know Deshambo's biggest weapon. I mean, there's a lot of

537
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 2: weapons he has, but the biggest weapon he has is

538
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 2: going to be that driver. It's going to be the

539
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: projected total driving. He doesn't get a return in my

540
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 2: model that is so worrisome that I think he's going

541
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 2: to miss the cut. I actually tend to think that

542
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 2: he's going to be better here than a lot of

543
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 2: the low end people are going to project here, But

544
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: this was a top five projected total driver for me

545
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 2: that moved outside of the top twenty in my model

546
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 2: with the way that I built it. So you know,

547
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: I'm going to take who I keep saying is my

548
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 2: favorite safe target on the board, who I think still

549
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 2: has upside in Morikawa, and I'm going to try to

550
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 2: outlast that more volatile nature of Dishambo that he's bringing

551
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: into this matchup. Where de Shambo starts to make sense

552
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 2: for me, where I'm not telling people to completely write

553
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 2: him off would be for DFS if if the mentality

554
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 2: starts coming into play that you have to find the

555
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 2: short grass, he's gonna be sub ten percent owned, And

556
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 2: because they don't believe he's gonna find the short grass,

557
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: if there's leverage that can get created, that's a different

558
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: discussion to be had. But for me in matchups, I

559
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: really don't care what your actual upside is. I'm always

560
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 2: looking what your floor projection is going to be, and

561
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: more a call as floor projection is where at that

562
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: minus one twenty price, it just far surpasses what I'm

563
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: getting from the Shambo, even if the upside numbers are

564
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: much closer.

565
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: Two questions for you, Pat, First, are you playing to

566
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: shambau in any market? And secondly, what are some of

567
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 3: the top head to heads that you've circled?

568
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I didn't circle any head head, so I said,

569
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 5: I'm not too concerned about that market. If I'm going

570
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 5: to play a head to head, I'm likely going to

571
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 5: play a three ball or a two ball in tournament.

572
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 5: Once I actually have some devided to work off of,

573
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 5: I find that is more of my sweet spot when

574
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 5: it comes to it, unless I scroll through and I

575
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 5: see something that is a way off, Like for example,

576
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,959
Speaker 5: this actually might be a bad example, but you can

577
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 5: get Brooks plus one ten against Bobby Mack this week,

578
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 5: and it's just it's crazy to think about how Robert

579
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 5: McIntyre could be a minus one twenty five favorite over

580
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 5: Brooks kep get in a major. There's ever going to

581
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 5: be a time where that would happen. I think we're

582
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 5: at like the very center of that tornado right now,

583
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 5: coming off a win still in Scotland. Brooks playing bad golf.

584
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 5: But I think I would still take Brooks at plus

585
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 5: money against Bobby Mack and in a full tournament matchup,

586
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 5: just based on the long term viability of Brooks Keptkin

587
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 5: how good that he's been at major championships, even the

588
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 5: Open Championship, he's been really good, But that's not really

589
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 5: what I'm looking at for Bryce, and I will most

590
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 5: definitely be playing him on DFS. I'm not going to

591
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 5: bet him to win because the price is too short,

592
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 5: And I'm kind of with Spencer on this that if

593
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 5: I'm going to get up there, it probably is going

594
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 5: to be Morikawa, because I just it all depends on

595
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 5: the conditions. Like you mentioned, good conditions when Stenson set

596
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 5: the record last time, it's not actually true. They were

597
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 5: horrendous conditions Phil Stenson, JB. Holmes, Beef Johnson, Charles Schwartzel.

598
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 5: At the Open, there's no split teas, so everyone teas

599
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 5: off of one, so there's like ten hours worth of

600
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 5: golfers teeing off on the first tee throughout the course

601
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 5: of the day. So the conditions the first ten groups

602
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 5: might play in has nothing in common with the last

603
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 5: ten playing and even little microwaves in between that they

604
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 5: all got sandwich in this one spot of the draw

605
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 5: where the conditions were just optimal for them. Everyone else's

606
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 5: conditions were horrible. That's how you see two guys that

607
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 5: are over twelve shots better than the rest of the field.

608
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 5: Only eleven guys finish under par that entire year. So

609
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 5: it all depends on that kind of thing. And with

610
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 5: Bryson there's volatility. He's gonna pick a strategy and he's

611
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 5: going to go with it. The problem with Bryson, the

612
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 5: Spencer alluded to, is that there's a lot of volatility.

613
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 5: When it's going right. For Bryson, it's going to go

614
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 5: really right. When it goes wrong. He's not the best

615
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 5: at making in round adjustments that he has his game plan.

616
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 5: If it's not working, he kind of doesn't know what

617
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 5: to do at that point. So far, his strategy has

618
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 5: been on point in twenty twenty three, especially in the majors.

619
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 5: That's very clear based on his results. But this is

620
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 5: a tournament where with the weather, with a bad lie,

621
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 5: a bad break off one of these hills and it

622
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 5: rolls into whatever, and you have a terror lie in

623
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 5: there that I could see that getting to Bryson. So

624
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 5: I get why playing him in a head to head

625
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 5: matchup against him makes sense because he's he feels far

626
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 5: more likely to miss the cut or come t fifty

627
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 5: than Marikawa does, because Moracao is probably gonna be like,

628
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 5: I don't know, t fifteen at worst, it seems, and.

629
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 4: Like, I mean, if you've got him to win, you

630
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 4: hope it's winning.

631
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 5: But like, he's probably a better lock to come inside

632
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 5: the top five than Bryson, although Bryson probably if he

633
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 5: picks right, has a better.

634
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 4: Chance to win, if that makes any sense.

635
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 3: Well, just off of that, you talk about the stability

636
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 3: of some of these top golfers and the tiers within

637
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: those stability rankings. Let's talk long shots for a second.

638
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 3: Somebody who would come out of the woodwork and really

639
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 3: put a scare into people on Sunday with a huge

640
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 3: number attached to them. Were there any that you feel

641
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: were truly miss price or is it more so you know,

642
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: throwing a couple of darts and hoping that you had

643
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: multiple golfers come the weekend, some with long numbers let's say,

644
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: north of fifty to one.

645
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's the most viable strategy. I think

646
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 5: that glombed on to the same guy because his number

647
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 5: is no longer super long. I bet Louis at one

648
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 5: hundred and ten to one with eight placement points to

649
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 5: go along with it, Like people don't pay attention to live,

650
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 5: which has made a lot of the live guys kind

651
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 5: of very valuable in this field. Like the live guys

652
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 5: that price it brooks like you know about them? What

653
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 5: has everyone else been doing? No one's really paying attention

654
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 5: to that. Loui's been awesome on live. He hasn't played

655
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 5: in a major so far this season. He won two

656
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 5: events on the DP World Tour in January and December.

657
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 5: To finish out his season, he came second in Oman

658
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 5: as well in an Asian Tour event with most of

659
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 5: the live guys in it. He has three seconds on

660
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 5: live so far this year. He's an Open Championship winner.

661
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 5: He's won the Alfred Dunhill Links before as a rotation

662
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 5: tournament through Scotland. At the same time, he's been bet

663
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 5: down to sixty five to one. I'm sure we've all

664
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 5: been on it.

665
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 4: Even at sixty five to one. It gives me some.

666
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 5: Pause because now he's in the range of like real

667
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 5: guys that you could see winning. But I just think

668
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 5: that people are still kind of underrating how good his

669
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 5: game is, both for this course and how good it's

670
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 5: in this year. And then the other one that's way

671
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 5: deeper down the board, depending on where you want to

672
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 5: bet him right now. I bet him as a future

673
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 5: at one hundred and fifty to one about three weeks

674
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:09,719
Speaker 5: ago when I thought that he was going to win

675
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 5: in Detroit. I actually look that Akshay is kind of

676
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 5: great for links golf, and I think that he's kind

677
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 5: of great for this course. Like if you're looking at

678
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 5: a Stenson proto type, Botia's kind of it. He's not

679
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 5: super long off the tee, but he's wildly accurate. His

680
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 5: irons are amazing. His short game is an absolute travesty.

681
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 5: That's not why you're betting him. If Stenson had been

682
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 5: missing greens in regulation at true in twenty sixteen, he

683
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 5: would have shot plus eighty because the guy can't chip

684
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 5: to save his life. He just hit everything to thirty

685
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 5: feet and putt started to drop for him. That was

686
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 5: his entire game all week. Then he hits him close

687
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 5: and made all of them. Botia's game is very similar,

688
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 5: and if he can putt from off the green or

689
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 5: not find himself in a world of trouble.

690
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: He's been very good in the wind, keeps the.

691
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 5: Ball in play and he can get scorching hot with

692
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 5: his irons that he's probably unlikely to win, hence why

693
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 5: he's one hundred and fifty to one.

694
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 4: But I actually think he should be priced much higher

695
00:30:59,320 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: than that.

696
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: It's going to be difficult to have any long shot

697
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: more enticing than Louis one hundred and ten. Talk about

698
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: a pairing of a golfer and a number that really

699
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: entices me. But Spencer, is there anybody in that neighborhood

700
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 3: that jumped off the page to you?

701
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 2: I said this on Monday in one of my articles.

702
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: I think when the odds board opened, initially your best

703
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 2: and worst values were probably these live golfers. Like I've

704
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: kind of made my argument why I think certain players

705
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 2: are volatile. Louis would be the best of that answer.

706
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 2: When that number opened, he shouldn't have been in the hundreds,

707
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: and we've seen the market correct itself from everything that

708
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 2: he's provided over the last couple months. The live golfer

709
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 2: that I decided to go to and you can shop

710
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,959
Speaker 2: around and actually find even a little bit better than

711
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: what I grabbed here, I ended up taking Cameron Smith

712
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: at fifty to one. Smith was a golfer that I

713
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: heavily faded at the US opening matchups. Throughout the week,

714
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: I had this poor expected off the tee play that

715
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: my model ended up generating. I realized we don't necessarily

716
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: get the most ideal outcome here at Royal either. But

717
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 2: it's not as if Cameron Smith hasn't gone to some

718
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 2: of these. You know, look at the Players Championship. He

719
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: takes down the Players Championship at a course that I

720
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 2: wouldn't have necessarily thought from a driving answer is the

721
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: best course for him either there. But you look at

722
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: where he was in my model at the last major,

723
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 2: at THEUS Open one hundred and twenty ninth for projected

724
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 2: total driving, he jumps into the top seventy five.

725
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 6: Here.

726
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: I know that these are very like still low end

727
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 2: marks that we're talking about, but you add that to

728
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: the top fifteen projected score grade that he had for me,

729
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: you get the number one output from a short game expectation.

730
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 2: When you combine around the green, putting and scrambling into

731
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: one category.

732
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: I think, whether we're talking DFS or.

733
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 2: Betting, this was a really nice by low spot for

734
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: him after what many in the public are deeming to

735
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: be a disappointing start to the season. So I grab

736
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: them at fifty. I'm gonna play him also for DFS

737
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: and then the one true long shot that I took.

738
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: You know, I guess my one concern is is once

739
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: we start entering this one hundred thirty five or higher range,

740
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 2: there's an argument to be made that one, depending on

741
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 2: how you build your cards, you might not have room

742
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 2: for these options, and two we might be pushing this

743
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: a little bit further back than we should be, where

744
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, these names start becoming better top five,

745
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 2: top ten, top twenty sort of bets. I ended up

746
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: taking Alex Norn at one hundred and thirty five to one.

747
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: If you listen to me on any Action Network show,

748
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: you will know that this is my shit show special

749
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: that I do every single major that he finds his

750
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: way onto my card, and it hasn't necessarily worked out

751
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 2: in the past.

752
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: I understand that.

753
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 2: But this is that high ceiling, low floor sort of

754
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: outcome that my model was projecting. I thought his late

755
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: addition into the field after he qualified through the Genesis

756
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: Scottish Open got us a softer price in various iterations

757
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: of the market than we would have gotten if he

758
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: had already been qualified prior to last week and then

759
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 2: really the one caveat that pushed me in this direction

760
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: is my model didn't rank nor in worse than twenty

761
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 2: third for any of the six main categories that I ran,

762
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: which included a comp course answer of sixth overall and

763
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 2: a scrambling return of fourth. When you combine overall scrambling

764
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,240
Speaker 2: with the player's ability to scramble from out of the sand,

765
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 2: as I said, I think we're starting to push it

766
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 2: in this range. But you know, I like the patiacle.

767
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 2: I think he's certainly viable. I think Noorin is viable

768
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: for all the reasons I talked about. There's a handful

769
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: of other players. I'm going to be very scarcely making

770
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: these wagers. I'd rather push them towards top fives or

771
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 2: top tens, good number or.

772
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 4: In the best.

773
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 5: The best I'm seeing in market right now is nineties.

774
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 5: That's nice to jump on that. The other guy that

775
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 5: I was like kind of thinking about from like the

776
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 5: I feel like the tournament has to go a certain

777
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 5: way for Batia to have a chance. Now, he was

778
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 5: top twenty at the US Open. He has top tens

779
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 5: in the two events after that, a fifth and at

780
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 5: the Travelers a second in Detroit. So he's playing good

781
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 5: golf coming in and now he has some of this

782
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 5: major experience. You never know how guys are going to

783
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 5: play on links golf when you've never seen that happen before.

784
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 5: But there's just a couple of really boring names from

785
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 5: down the list that it feels it's it's not so

786
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 5: much that their odds seem long, it's that I think

787
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 5: that they're better than a lot of the players who

788
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 5: were in front of them, Like, for example, I love

789
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 5: Aaron Rye. I bet Aaron Rye like every single week.

790
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 5: The fact that he's the same as like Wyndham Clark

791
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 5: and Cam Young and Sung Jay in this tournament, like no,

792
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 5: and even those guys at sixty five to one seem off.

793
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 5: But like why is Sveesser? Why is Russell Henley one

794
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty to one?

795
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree.

796
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 2: I think if you look at any of the accuracy

797
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 2: numbers that I keep talking about, and if you look

798
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: at the sand play that he's projected to perform, like

799
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 2: for me, he's a top twenty expected win equity candidate,

800
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 2: then I guess the answer I would give to this

801
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: pad is what I have kind of said this entire

802
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: time about every single golfer that I keep finding myself

803
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: on the public perception of Russell Henley's lack of iniquity

804
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 2: pushed them too far on the odds board when everything

805
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 2: opened up to start the week, in my opinion.

806
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 5: And it happens like we've seen this with a couple

807
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 5: of players so far this year. That I mean, Henley's

808
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 5: only playing majors in signature events, He's only playing in

809
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 5: the strongest field. We're not getting him at the John

810
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 5: Deere and the Window anymore, and he's still piling up

811
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 5: great results in these tournaments. The other one I would

812
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 5: just take a look at for pure skills would either

813
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 5: be Harris English at two hundred to one, who kind

814
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 5: of fits that same mold. But Abraham answered at two

815
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 5: hundred to one like he's he's basically Corey Connors but

816
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 5: can putt. Sometimes it's just he's on lives and no

817
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 5: one cares.

818
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, one last question for you guys, because

819
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: this course has been described as Dante esque in that

820
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 3: there's heaven, there's purgatory, and there's hell almost broken up

821
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 3: perfectly in six hole increments. You could argue that the

822
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 3: eleventh hole railway, if the wind is blowing across the fairway,

823
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: can be very difficult, and that can be the jumping

824
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 3: off point to that hellish finish. So I asked the

825
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 3: question in this way. Colin Wilson and I were covering

826
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 3: the College World Series on the Diamonds and we talked

827
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: about the ideal team to get ahead, that their bullpen

828
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 3: was going to blow it, and you wanted to jump

829
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 3: in from a live number who's a top twenty thirty

830
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 3: golfer in this field, that if they're up by two

831
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: one Sunday, you're going to load up with some options

832
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 3: them at solid value on the board because you think

833
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 3: this course will get the best of them down the

834
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 3: stretch on Sunday.

835
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 2: Fleetwood, do you agree, Spencer, Well, I mean it's hard

836
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: to argue that with what we've seen from Fleetwood historically

837
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 2: and these opportunities. For me, it would probably be Bryson.

838
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: I agree about all the upside answers. It's not going

839
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: to shock me if Bryson puts it together. I do

840
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: worry about how Bryson ends up closing here though, with

841
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 2: some of these holes.

842
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 5: And I conversely, I mean if Justin Thomas is like

843
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 5: four off the lead or five off the lead going

844
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 5: into Sunday. Just bet him it whatever ridiculous odds that

845
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 5: you get, because he'll shoot sixty two will everyone else's

846
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 5: seventy four?

847
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: Somehow?

848
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 3: All right, this has been the Action Network Podcast presented

849
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 3: by bet MGM for Spencer Agiar and Patrick Mayo. I'm

850
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 3: Mike Caliberiz. Thank you so much for listening to our

851
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 3: British open preview. If you are jonesing for more action,

852
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 3: go on over to the Action Network app. We've covered

853
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 3: top to bottom with all kinds of exotic outrights, head

854
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 3: to heads, lots of action coming in and as we

855
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 3: mentioned and it's always important to shop around. These numbers

856
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 3: can differentiate between books. You want to make sure you

857
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 3: get the absolute best before the first tee off on Thursday.

858
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 3: All right, that's it for us, Thanks so much for listening.

859
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 3: I have a go one. Action Network reminds you please

860
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 3: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

861
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

862
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: at one eight hundred Gambler