Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
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Speaker 1: global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: So global MNA activity is gearing up for a spring renaissance,
Speaker 2: with more than twenty billion of potential transactions emerging since
Speaker 2: the weekend, the latest charge being led by merk which
Speaker 2: agreed yesterday to buy Prometheus Biosciences for about ten point
Speaker 2: eight billion works out to about two hundred in cash,
Speaker 2: continuing a theme of large biotechs looking for ways to
Speaker 2: boost pipelines and portfolios of new drugs. It's an old story,
Speaker 2: We've seen this before. It is also the latest boost
Speaker 2: for deal makers in healthcare, which is one of the
Speaker 2: few sectors justice to fight.
Speaker 3: The global slump.
Speaker 2: At M and A.
Speaker 3: We are seeing activity here.
Speaker 4: And with more on that, we do have Sam Fazelli,
Speaker 4: who's the senior pharmaceutical analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence on Zoo
Speaker 4: from London and Sam, I'm looking at shares of Prometheus Biosciences.
Speaker 4: That's tickersible. Rx DX is about seventy percent on peace
Speaker 4: Sport's best day since early December. Breakdown this deal for us.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Hi, So basically what we've got is merk is
Speaker 5: going after a drug that has shown which is the
Speaker 5: key asset that Prometheus has, that has shown very good
Speaker 5: at efficacy, accepting that his cross trial comparisons or either
Speaker 5: not being competitive to head, it seems to be the
Speaker 5: best efficacy that we've seen so far in treating inflammatory
Speaker 5: bowel disease, and that's a big market.
Speaker 6: J and J alone has a drug called Stellara.
Speaker 5: Where of course it's used in other indications too, and
Speaker 5: that could be the same for Prometheus's drug is doing
Speaker 5: close to ten billion.
Speaker 6: Dollars expectation this year. So you know, then when you put.
Speaker 5: That into context, ten point eighty billion dollars doesn't stand
Speaker 5: like a lot at least from this basic assessment. But
Speaker 5: of course commercial dynamics could be very different when this
Speaker 5: drug comes to market in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just going to say, right, that's a few
Speaker 2: years from now, and you know better than most sam
Speaker 2: about the you know, drug trial process. You know there
Speaker 2: could be some stumbling blocks. So but you would assume
Speaker 2: that Mark has done its homework in a big way here.
Speaker 5: Sure, but this is a this is an early stage trial.
Speaker 5: When you go into larger base three trials.
Speaker 6: Different kinds of things can surface. But I'm not necessarily
Speaker 6: worried about spiderfecks.
Speaker 5: I mean that is a risk that drug companies take
Speaker 5: day in, day out, or the efficause it doesn't pan
Speaker 5: out as well as it did in the smaller trial.
Speaker 5: What I think is interesting going to be interesting is
Speaker 5: that the same drug that I mentioned earlier, Johnson and
Speaker 5: Johnson's drug.
Speaker 6: Stillara, is going off patent imminently.
Speaker 5: So this is this peak year and in twenty twenty
Speaker 5: four it's going to be going losing.
Speaker 6: Market share to buy a similar drugs it will be cheaper.
Speaker 5: So when Mark comes to market with this drug, where
Speaker 5: will it be positioned? Will you people be forced to
Speaker 5: use the Laura first and if they fail, then they
Speaker 5: use permifew drug, which would then take longer to ramp
Speaker 5: up sales.
Speaker 4: Sam, I know MRK is really focused when it comes
Speaker 4: to oncology, but I know it's key drug, key Truda.
Speaker 4: It's estimated to bring in around forty three percent of
Speaker 4: its revenues by the end of twenty twenty four. Now,
Speaker 4: as far as the expiration is concerned, it's still wilder.
Speaker 4: But is this really a key play as far as
Speaker 4: the patent front, as far as what it can do
Speaker 4: to still boost those revenues once that patent does expire.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So the patent expires in twenty twenty eight, and
Speaker 5: we don't think that they're going to be able to
Speaker 5: push that much further.
Speaker 6: Of course, it doesn't.
Speaker 5: Expire everywhere at the same time, so it's going to
Speaker 5: be a relatively speaking, at that point, expectations are about
Speaker 5: thirty three billion dollars of sales, but we think that
Speaker 5: it could lose about seventeen over the next two years,
Speaker 5: and that's what consensus has in their expects.
Speaker 6: So will you be able to replace seventeen billion? That's
Speaker 6: a big ask.
Speaker 5: There are other drugs in this pipeline that are looking
Speaker 5: really good from previous acquisitions and this will help, but
Speaker 5: we don't think that it's going to be quite enough
Speaker 5: to make up that difference. That therefore they'll need more
Speaker 5: deals or at least more drugs coming out of their
Speaker 5: own pipeline.
Speaker 2: Hey, Sam, I mean we've seen this movie before, right,
Speaker 2: you know, the big pharmaceutical companies have drugs coming off
Speaker 2: patent and then they got to figure out how to
Speaker 2: beef up their patent pipeline. I mean, is that what
Speaker 2: is at this point once again driving so the acquisition
Speaker 2: mode if you will, among the big drug companies.
Speaker 6: Yes, it is exactly that.
Speaker 5: You know, we've got estimates of over three hundred billion
Speaker 5: dollars worth of drugs exposed to pattern the experience by
Speaker 5: twenty thirty.
Speaker 6: Now that doesn't mean that's the sales that lose, but
Speaker 6: that's a big number. Over some period of time post
Speaker 6: twenty thirty.
Speaker 5: They will lose some of those sales to competition, So
Speaker 5: they're going to have to be able to replace.
Speaker 6: Is that some people will do a better job of
Speaker 6: replacing than others.
Speaker 5: Time will tell, but they certainly need this and there's
Speaker 5: going to be more in Mana to get through this.
Speaker 2: I am also curious Sam that kind of what's on
Speaker 2: everybody's radar. We talk to various folks in the medical
Speaker 2: community and just in the innovative space and disruptive space,
Speaker 2: and they talk about the human genome and you personalized,
Speaker 2: individualized drugs, and I'm thinking, also, we're coming off the
Speaker 2: pandemic and I'm thinking about what we might need next
Speaker 2: and messenger RNA right, that led to the development of
Speaker 2: those drugs. What are some of the things that are
Speaker 2: on your radar that you think are probably on the
Speaker 2: radar of you know, a mercer, a Pfizer and others
Speaker 2: out there.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean there are. There's so much going on
Speaker 6: in science. Prometheus is an example of that. This is
Speaker 6: a completely new target.
Speaker 5: Being developed for this inflammatory disease, which has seen quite
Speaker 5: a lot of innovation.
Speaker 6: There are patients with psoriasis, which is pretty bad.
Speaker 5: Disorder that that see one diseaser mission or skin clearance
Speaker 5: with some of these newer drugs. So immunology is exploding.
Speaker 5: Our understanding of immunology is exploding, which frankly touches every
Speaker 5: disease that there is. And so the more in depth
Speaker 5: understanding of immunology will have, the better we'll be able
Speaker 5: to target some of these diseases. At the same time,
Speaker 5: the modalities that we can do it with are expanding
Speaker 5: protein degraders, things that can downregulate the amount of a protein.
Speaker 6: That's produced, even if it's not a standard way of
Speaker 6: doing pharmacology. So there's that element. There's the modern a vaccines,
Speaker 6: there are the gene editing technologies all targeted at trying
Speaker 6: to stall single gene diseases.
Speaker 5: Or targeting immune system disorders, which, as I said, is
Speaker 5: involved in every pretty much every disease that there is.
Speaker 4: And Sam I was curious about what you think this
Speaker 4: says about the macro and the economy as far as
Speaker 4: a sign of confidence if you have these c suite
Speaker 4: executives that want to put more money to work, and
Speaker 4: particularly obviously when we're talking about the pharmaceutical.
Speaker 6: Industry, yep.
Speaker 5: I mean, look at the end of the day, when
Speaker 5: you have that drug that's been become such a success,
Speaker 5: not just for your P and L, but also for patients.
Speaker 5: And I'm talking about Key Truder here as an example,
Speaker 5: you need to do something.
Speaker 6: You can't just sit back.
Speaker 5: And let's not forget pharmaceutical companies are not impacted by
Speaker 5: the macro environment as much as consumer stocks or tech
Speaker 5: or etc.
Speaker 6: They are less.
Speaker 5: Sensitive to interest rate rises because they're very high cash generative,
Speaker 5: highly cash generative, so they're in a position to exercise
Speaker 5: this power. And thank god, because at the end of
Speaker 5: the day, we do need the drugs that they're bringing
Speaker 5: into market, and they are making a difference, putting the
Speaker 5: pricing discussion aside, because that's a whole different kettle of fish.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty remarkable though you think about what Pfizer
Speaker 2: was it last month bought Siegen for forty three billion.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much going on in the space. Hey,
Speaker 2: any thoughts if you will, Sam, on Prometheus, it's trained
Speaker 2: below two hundred. We know that two hundred in cash
Speaker 2: was what Mark put out for it. Does that mean
Speaker 2: anything significantly to you just quickly?
Speaker 6: Not really? Not really.
Speaker 5: I mean if you look at Merk's current areas of
Speaker 5: activity in this disease area.
Speaker 6: There really don't. I don't really think there's much competition.
Speaker 6: The drug is early stage, is high risk.
Speaker 5: I think this is just six months of waiting for
Speaker 5: it to close, or a few months of waiting for
Speaker 5: it to close on that gap will likely close.
Speaker 6: So I don't read too much into this.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, good, good to get some perspective and fun
Speaker 2: to have kind of another m and a Monday, which
Speaker 2: we don't always have, or it has it feels like
Speaker 2: we haven't in a while.
Speaker 3: Hey, Sam, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: I know it's a little bit later out there in London,
Speaker 2: so appreciate you hanging around so we could talk with you.
Speaker 2: Sam Fazzelli, he's Bloomberg Intelligence senior pharmaceutical analyst, as we said,
Speaker 2: joining us zoom from London. Check out Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 2: for some of the additional research by Sam and the
Speaker 2: team and some of the other reporting when it comes
Speaker 2: to this acquisition. But it is typically you know about
Speaker 2: the pipeline, Jess. That's what it's about for these big
Speaker 2: pharmaceutical companies. You know, if you know covering business news
Speaker 2: a lot, you see this, these cycles that go through
Speaker 2: for these companies that have these blockbusters that bring in
Speaker 2: so much money, and then they go off patent and
Speaker 2: then they've got to think about, okay, what brings in
Speaker 2: revenues from right?
Speaker 4: And when you think about how much cash these companies
Speaker 4: were sitting on in the pandemic, Carol, and then wondering
Speaker 4: what do we do with the money? Well, particularly with
Speaker 4: the pharmaceutical giants, maybe more M and.
Speaker 2: A yeah, exactly, and we've seen a fair amount already
Speaker 2: this year.
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Speaker 7: It's not easy being green, having to spend each day
Speaker 7: the color of the leaves.
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, a little kermit for you, because we're
Speaker 2: all talking about being green, We're going to talk about
Speaker 2: farming and growing green something. This next company knows a
Speaker 2: lot about it, and I've got to say, you know,
Speaker 2: we've been talking about this a lot here Jess on air.
Speaker 2: We recently caught up with the founder and CEO of
Speaker 2: the ag tech company Regrow, and a lot is going
Speaker 2: on when it comes to farming, food and the AG space,
Speaker 2: which is really seeing some disruption and also growth in
Speaker 2: terms of the market size. So let's get into it
Speaker 2: with someone who's well versed and embedded in the agg
Speaker 2: and farming space. We welcome Irving Fine, founder and CEO
Speaker 2: Barry Farming, which is backed by GV formerly Google Ventures.
Speaker 2: He joins us via zoom in New York City. Irving,
Speaker 2: I've been looking forward to having you on air. Welcome
Speaker 2: and good to have you here. First of all, how
Speaker 2: should do you think the world think about modern arming?
Speaker 8: You know, it's it's an important question, and I imagine
Speaker 8: at some point you all have talked about. You know,
Speaker 8: we have a big and important farm bill that is
Speaker 8: coming up again quite soon, and so not only does
Speaker 8: the world need to be thinking about farming, but this
Speaker 8: country is very specifically thinking about farming. And you know,
Speaker 8: one of the statistics that I think a lot of
Speaker 8: people always find surprising or often find surprising, is that
Speaker 8: agriculture is actually the second largest source of global greenhouse
Speaker 8: gas emissions, right after the production of electricity and heat.
Speaker 8: So it actually accounts for a bigger slice of greenhouse
Speaker 8: gas emissions than the transportation sector, which you all were
Speaker 8: just talking about. And so when you think about what
Speaker 8: does modern farming need to look like, one of the
Speaker 8: critical recognition that we all need to have is there
Speaker 8: is no path to that zero. There is no path
Speaker 8: to decarbonization that doesn't lead directly through all of agriculture.
Speaker 8: And so the question you're asking is an extraordinarily important
Speaker 8: question for all of us to answer, not only in
Speaker 8: the next few years, but in the next few decades,
Speaker 8: as we need to transition to a more sustainable system
Speaker 8: that needs to feed a lot more people.
Speaker 2: Are we doing it yet? I mean, I feel like
Speaker 2: you're involved in it. There's definitely pockets. But I also
Speaker 2: think about industrial farming. It's massive and controls a lot.
Speaker 3: So where are we in.
Speaker 2: Not only thinking about it, but doing something differently that's
Speaker 2: better for our world?
Speaker 8: So massive it is, and changing a system that is
Speaker 8: as large and embedded as sort of broad based industrial
Speaker 8: agriculture is is not something that happens overnight. And I
Speaker 8: think you can just look towards the energy sector, the
Speaker 8: transportation sector, which are in many ways far ahead of
Speaker 8: where we are agriculturally, to see how long real transformational
Speaker 8: change takes. And you know, I think there's an interesting
Speaker 8: statistic that really answers your question more effectively than anything
Speaker 8: I can say, which is, for every gigaton of CO
Speaker 8: two that's generated annually by the combined global energy and
Speaker 8: transportation sectors, fifty one billion dollars was invested in low
Speaker 8: carbon energy transition in twenty twenty two. So for every
Speaker 8: gigaton of CO two that was generated from energy and transportation,
Speaker 8: there's fifty one billion spent for low carbon transition in
Speaker 8: twenty twenty two. At the same period, the transition to
Speaker 8: cleaner and more efficient agriculture got two billion dollars of
Speaker 8: investment for every gig aton, so twenty five time difference.
Speaker 8: And so are we moving, Yes, we're moving, and yes
Speaker 8: there's a lot of innovation, there's a lot of excitement,
Speaker 8: but what is very clear is we're not moving as
Speaker 8: quickly and as aggressively enough as we really need to.
Speaker 8: When you think about how substantial the food and agriculture
Speaker 8: ecosystem is for the entirety of the global population.
Speaker 4: Irving take a step back and talk to us more
Speaker 4: specifically about Bowery Farming and specifically what your company does.
Speaker 8: Absolutely so, our belief at Bowery is that wherever food
Speaker 8: is needed, we can grow it, and we do that
Speaker 8: by growing in warehouse scale smart growing environments. We stack
Speaker 8: our crops from the floor all the way up to
Speaker 8: the ceiling. We grow under lights that mimic the spectrum
Speaker 8: of the sun, and we grow in a totally controlled
Speaker 8: and contained environment, so we can grow three hundred and
Speaker 8: sixty five days of the year, independent of weather, independent
Speaker 8: of seasonality, so it's reliable, consistent supply of pure produce
Speaker 8: year round. On top of it, we grow completely pesticide
Speaker 8: free and agrochemical free food. And whereas in the field
Speaker 8: that not only hurts your quality and productivity in our case.
Speaker 8: First of all, our produce is really the purest expression
Speaker 8: of what you would imagine came out of your grandmother's garden,
Speaker 8: and it's one hundred times more productive than a square
Speaker 8: foot of farmland, all the while using a very small
Speaker 8: fraction of water compared to traditional.
Speaker 2: Agriculture packed on the environment, the footprint much smaller. Forgive
Speaker 2: me for interrupting, but so absolutely, how does it compare.
Speaker 2: I'm just thinking for people who are listening, how does
Speaker 2: it compare from traditional in terms of the impact.
Speaker 8: It is fractional, so ninety percent plus less water than
Speaker 8: traditional farming, uses no pesticides, no herbicides, no fungicides, no insecticides.
Speaker 8: And there's even more benefits beyond this, because number one,
Speaker 8: we locate our farms close to the actual points of consumption,
Speaker 8: so our product is harvested and delivered within twenty four
Speaker 8: to thirty six hours versus weeks of time in the
Speaker 8: traditional agricultural supply chain, and oftentimes even months. That means
Speaker 8: you're wasting less food, it's fresher when it shows up,
Speaker 8: and it's more nutritious. You also are reducing all the
Speaker 8: transportation miles that are required in today's existing supply chain.
Speaker 8: So in many respects, what we are doing is actually
Speaker 8: reinventing the fresh food supply chain, and we're building a
Speaker 8: supply chain it's simpler, it's safe, it has much more
Speaker 8: surety of supply, and it's a lot more sustainable than
Speaker 8: the existing system today.
Speaker 4: How does this exactly reshape the food patterns if we're
Speaker 4: talking about either gen Z or millennials.
Speaker 8: In a number of ways. I think this is meeting
Speaker 8: consumers where they are and what they're looking for. So
Speaker 8: Number one, what allows us to do what we do
Speaker 8: at Ballery is leveraging an enormous amount of technological innovation
Speaker 8: that's occurred over the last decade or so. We certainly
Speaker 8: leverage improvements in lighting and LEDs, but it's also leveraging
Speaker 8: artificial intelligence, computer vision, software, center and control systems, automation
Speaker 8: and robotics. It forms the intelligence layer across our farm
Speaker 8: and allows us to automate the entire process from when
Speaker 8: we plant the seed to when we harvest the product
Speaker 8: and put it into a package. And the reason that's
Speaker 8: important is it both allows us to be more sustainable,
Speaker 8: it allows the product to be safer, and it's using
Speaker 8: technology and smart and effective ways to produce a more
Speaker 8: sustainable system that we sell a product today at or
Speaker 8: below the cost of field grown organic and so consumers
Speaker 8: are looking for that sustainable solution. They're looking for technological
Speaker 8: solutions to age old problems and systems that we've lived in.
Speaker 8: But they don't want those solutions to cause them to
Speaker 8: have to bend their lifestyles an excessive amount. And that's
Speaker 8: where and how we can use technology effectively to deliver
Speaker 8: the solution. We do about and cost.
Speaker 2: Remind us about cost differentials between what you guys are
Speaker 2: doing and what kind of the rest of the are
Speaker 2: much of the ag space is doing.
Speaker 8: We are selling at or below the cost of field
Speaker 8: grown organic products today, and we sell across We are
Speaker 8: the largest into vertical farming company in the US now
Speaker 8: eighteen hundred plus retail doors. We work with Amazon and
Speaker 8: Whole Foods and Walmart and safe Way, Albertson's, and I'll
Speaker 8: hold so many of the grocery stores that you all
Speaker 8: shop and.
Speaker 2: Know and Irving. I know I've had the benefit of
Speaker 2: talking with you earlier this year at this incredible dinner
Speaker 2: that you and your team hosted and you brought together
Speaker 2: you know, people from different walks of life, I feel like,
Speaker 2: and it was just a really rich conversation about what's
Speaker 2: going on in terms of food, food production and how
Speaker 2: we think about wellness and the importance of food production
Speaker 2: in our wellness.
Speaker 3: So when you think about.
Speaker 2: What's going on in the food space, it's going to
Speaker 2: require a lot of parties right in order to get
Speaker 2: it right.
Speaker 8: Absolutely, And you know, like any large scale system that's
Speaker 8: global in nature and that in essence touches every person
Speaker 8: on the planet, the notion that there's a single silver bullet,
Speaker 8: a single industry, you know, let alone a single company,
Speaker 8: is of course false and would never be the case.
Speaker 8: And so again not the point to the energy decarbonization
Speaker 8: and transition. But there are so many different companies and
Speaker 8: approaches that we're seeing play out in that space. And similarly,
Speaker 8: we are going to need many different ways to approach
Speaker 8: the new agricultural ecosystem. We're going to need lots of
Speaker 8: different solutions, and we're gonna need to look at every
Speaker 8: aspect of the agricultural ecosystem as well. And you know,
Speaker 8: we're talking today about farming and fresh food production, but
Speaker 8: equally we have to look very closely at animal agriculture
Speaker 8: and how that is transpiring and taking place. We need
Speaker 8: to look at food waste in general and how that's handled.
Speaker 8: We need to look at developing countries across the world
Speaker 8: and the way they're farming, their actual availability of not
Speaker 8: only capital but actual tools, and the types of understanding
Speaker 8: that we have and the access to equipment and to
Speaker 8: inputs and things that we have in the developing world
Speaker 8: that they may not have access to which can raise yields.
Speaker 8: It is a large scale problem that will need many people,
Speaker 8: lots of capital and a lot a lot of focus
Speaker 8: and attention in the coming decades.
Speaker 5: Well, and what I.
Speaker 2: Wonder too, and I think this came up at the
Speaker 2: dinner that you guys hosted, is that when we talked
Speaker 2: about plant based proteins which haven't necessarily lived up to
Speaker 2: what thought they were going to be and they're ten years,
Speaker 2: you know, right old and counting whether it's beyond impossible
Speaker 2: and a lot of other players. Everybody was so excited,
Speaker 2: but it hasn't quite worked out how we thought. Is
Speaker 2: there going to still be you know, a really important
Speaker 2: role for plant based protein in your view, because I
Speaker 2: know you reach out and really are looking at things
Speaker 2: on a bigger level.
Speaker 8: So you know, I don't in some ways there was
Speaker 8: a structural disadvantage that plant based protein had, and you
Speaker 8: could argue whether or not they created this on their own,
Speaker 8: but this notion that they themselves and the set of
Speaker 8: companies were going to be able to displace the entirety
Speaker 8: or even a huge portion of the traditional meat industry,
Speaker 8: that's a really tall task. That's difficult, and more importantly,
Speaker 8: is it possible. Absolutely, But something like that will take
Speaker 8: time no matter what. And so what plant based proteins
Speaker 8: absolutely have been able to do is they've shined the
Speaker 8: light and they've brought into the forefront the conversation about
Speaker 8: how animal agriculture is affecting the planet, how it's affecting
Speaker 8: our health. I mean, we spoke about this at that dinner.
Speaker 8: But the calorie calculation is about ten calories in for
Speaker 8: one calorie out when it comes to meat. So if
Speaker 8: I said to you, Carol, hey, listen, I'm going to
Speaker 8: give you a dollar and you give me ten dollars,
Speaker 8: I think that that would not be a trade that
Speaker 8: you would want to make. And that is essentially our
Speaker 8: current trade in the industrial agriculture system when it comes
Speaker 8: to meat, and plant based proteins are helping people realize
Speaker 8: whether it's animal welfare, whether it's the environmental impact, and
Speaker 8: it's not just the animals themselves, it's all of the
Speaker 8: crops that we have to grow to feed the animals,
Speaker 8: many of which we grow in this country and we
Speaker 8: end up sending overseas to support ecosystems in other countries
Speaker 8: and other regions. There are better ways to do this.
Speaker 8: Plant based proteins are shining a light on it. And
Speaker 8: what you're going to see now, in my view, is
Speaker 8: cell based agriculture is really beginning to grow. It's beginning
Speaker 8: to take shape. It's very early stages, but it's the
Speaker 8: ability to essentially grow animal protein in a laboratory that
Speaker 8: is in many ways indistinguishable from an actual animal protein
Speaker 8: that comes from an animal. It just has a fractional
Speaker 8: environmental footprint and actually doesn't require the land, the feed
Speaker 8: and everything else that we need today. Is this a
Speaker 8: next year's solution, right? Absolutely not, but this is coming
Speaker 8: absolutely irving.
Speaker 2: Having said that, then do you envision a world and
Speaker 2: I don't know whether it's five years, ten years, twenty years,
Speaker 2: where most of our food is produced inside in labs
Speaker 2: in you know, gardens like you guys have hydroponic inside
Speaker 2: because climate change is unstable and in terms of just
Speaker 2: productivity demands that we're going to have to be you know,
Speaker 2: making everything kind of inside.
Speaker 8: So it's a great question, and I think it's worth
Speaker 8: just taking a step back for a second and realizing
Speaker 8: the problem that we are solving ultimately is that the
Speaker 8: world around us, in particularly our climate, is becoming increasingly
Speaker 8: unreliable and unstable. And all you have to do is
Speaker 8: look at what's happening on the west coast of the
Speaker 8: US right now. We were talking about the twelve hundred
Speaker 8: year mega drought in California and the southwest of the US,
Speaker 8: which still very much is present, had very real impacts
Speaker 8: on agricultural output over the past three years. Now, over
Speaker 8: this winter, we have these atmospheric river events, and we
Speaker 8: have record snowpack in the Sierras, and we've gone from
Speaker 8: heavy drought conditions to enormous flooding in the fields of
Speaker 8: the Central Valley where the majority of our food, our
Speaker 8: fresh food comes from, over the course of the next
Speaker 8: six eight months. It is a different problem and a
Speaker 8: different extreme on the other side of the spectrum, and
Speaker 8: meteorologists and experts in this area say we're not done
Speaker 8: with the drought that will be back, and so this
Speaker 8: increasing amount of unreliable and uncertainty is going to demand
Speaker 8: that we put systems in place that can actually much
Speaker 8: more effectively hedge against that. What we're doing at Bowery
Speaker 8: and indoor agriculture is absolutely important and will be a
Speaker 8: very large part of the agricultural ecosystem moving forward. But
Speaker 8: I would never tell you that all food will be
Speaker 8: grown indoors. It is too large of the industry, it
Speaker 8: is too broad. We're talking about a global industry, a
Speaker 8: global problem, and there is places for outdoor agriculture, indoor agriculture,
Speaker 8: traditional animal proteins, cell based proteins, plant based meat. This
Speaker 8: is a many lead bullets and no silver bullet problem,
Speaker 8: without question.
Speaker 4: So is it easier to do this as a private
Speaker 4: company or is it make more sense to go public.
Speaker 8: I think what's exciting about what we're doing is food
Speaker 8: and the opportunity that we're going after is enormous and
Speaker 8: it's durable and irrespective of what's going on cyclically in
Speaker 8: an economy, people need to eat and this is important.
Speaker 8: And when we look at our opportunity just for crops
Speaker 8: that are good candidates for us at Bowery a trillion
Speaker 8: dollar plus a year global opportunity. So there is an
Speaker 8: enormous amount of to growth. Still, we are fractional compared
Speaker 8: to the opportunity in front of us. And so right now,
Speaker 8: as a private company, investing in innovation, investing in the
Speaker 8: foundational technology that we need to develop to do this
Speaker 8: effectively is the right decision for us. But you can
Speaker 8: absolutely see what we're doing at Bowery as a standalone
Speaker 8: public business. At some point.
Speaker 3: Hey, you know one thing I'm thinking about.
Speaker 2: We're getting ready to head out to Milkin and they are,
Speaker 2: you know, the Milk and Global Institute, their annual big event,
Speaker 2: and it really is this cross section between finance and wellness,
Speaker 2: and they often I've monitored moderated panels out there about
Speaker 2: food and food production in particular. Is the money flowing
Speaker 2: in too where it kind of needs to do to
Speaker 2: get to a food system that we're going to need
Speaker 2: in the future, that is better for the environment, that
Speaker 2: is much more productive and also healthier.
Speaker 8: I think this points to the stat I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 8: Is there money flowing absolutely, But when you think about
Speaker 8: the fact that twenty five times more investment is going
Speaker 8: towards in twenty twenty two energy and transportation decarbonization, and
Speaker 8: yet agriculture is the second large green gas by a
Speaker 8: very not far behind that twenty five times delta. To me,
Speaker 8: doesn't speak to a recognition and acknowledgment of the urgency
Speaker 8: and size of the opportunity in front of us.
Speaker 2: What's holding it back thirty seconds? Serving do we need,
Speaker 2: like an Elon musk to just kind of rip off
Speaker 2: the band aid?
Speaker 3: What do we need?
Speaker 8: Strangely, we all interact with the food system every single
Speaker 8: day of our lives. Yet I'm often amazed it just
Speaker 8: people don't know a lot about what's underneath the products buy.
Speaker 8: We go into the grocery store, we pick something off
Speaker 8: the shelf. I mean, you think about early COVID, when
Speaker 8: we were all shocked that our grocery store shelves are
Speaker 8: empty because we'd taken for granted that when we needed
Speaker 8: a product that would be there. But in fact, it's
Speaker 8: this long, complicated global supply chain that allows that to
Speaker 8: be a reality. And people are beginning to understand really
Speaker 8: what allows our food system and our agricultural ecosystem to
Speaker 8: exist in the way that it does. But increased knowledge
Speaker 8: and increased awareness and increased understanding will only lead to
Speaker 8: more investment, more entrepreneurs focusing problem and the returns are there.
Speaker 8: It's about that.
Speaker 2: Well, so glad we got to catch up and I
Speaker 2: look forward to next time already Irving Fain, Founder and
Speaker 2: chief executive Officer Barry Farming joining us via zoom from
Speaker 2: New York City.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Here's some data points for everybody. According to the latest estimates,
Speaker 2: nearly three hundred and twenty nine million terabytes of data
Speaker 2: are created each day. It's a lot, and no doubt
Speaker 2: about it, Chess. We're living in a data centric world.
Speaker 3: We get that.
Speaker 2: We talk about it constantly. We talk about retail using it,
Speaker 2: you know, to learn more about us and our buying habits.
Speaker 2: We talk about, you know, all the search giants they
Speaker 2: use it in terms of advertising, right it is kind
Speaker 2: of everywhere.
Speaker 4: It does, it follows us and obviously are different types
Speaker 4: of patterns, so you can't really escape it at this point, Carol.
Speaker 2: No, and it can be put to really good use
Speaker 2: when it comes to maybe creating better software.
Speaker 5: And we know that.
Speaker 2: And so that's where our next guest comes in. Whose
Speaker 2: company just raised fifty million in a series dfunding. So
Speaker 2: let's get to it. Christine Yan is co founder and
Speaker 2: CEO of Honeycomb. She joins us via zoom from Rena Reno.
Speaker 2: Excuse me, Reno, Nevada. I always say Nevada wrong, and
Speaker 2: I always have all my friends Christine yelling at me like,
Speaker 2: don't you know how to say it? And so instead
Speaker 2: I scribed Reno, Reno, Reno. I can't believe that.
Speaker 3: Welcome, Welcome, How are you?
Speaker 9: I'm excellent, happy Monday?
Speaker 2: How are you happy Monday? I'm doing okay too. Tell
Speaker 2: us about your company and how like kind of tapping
Speaker 2: into your time at Facebook specifically maybe helped you create
Speaker 2: I feel like almost a face book for tech engineers
Speaker 2: to kind of work together and create better code.
Speaker 3: So talk to us about it.
Speaker 9: Yeah, in a nutshell, my co founder and I met
Speaker 9: actually had a company before Facebook, and we were, you know,
Speaker 9: two engineers on opposite sides of sort of the spectrum
Speaker 9: of engineering, if that makes sense. She was very focused
Speaker 9: on back end infrastructure. I was building our analytics product.
Speaker 9: And you know, this company that we were employees at,
Speaker 9: we're building this very complex software system. We beating the
Speaker 9: engineer supporting that had to all the time figure out
Speaker 9: what was going on, why our software was not behaving
Speaker 9: the way that we expected. And you know, when when
Speaker 9: smaller companies get up by bigger companies, it's coming for
Speaker 9: the bigger company to push all the big company tools
Speaker 9: on a smaller company and say here, here are the
Speaker 9: big kid toys. And for the most part, we were
Speaker 9: skeptical that, you know, Facebook built for Facebook would make
Speaker 9: sense for our system. But there was one and this
Speaker 9: one tool that sort of shed all of the typical
Speaker 9: patterns that we'd seen in how tools can work with
Speaker 9: data to help engineering teams make sense of why is
Speaker 9: the software misbehaving? And despite being skeptics to begin with,
Speaker 9: we found that this internal tool changed changed how we
Speaker 9: thought about software, changed how we thought about what it
Speaker 9: meant for code to go life, and when each of
Speaker 9: us were thinking about leaving Facebook. You know, we both
Speaker 9: had the thought of I don't want to have to
Speaker 9: do that thing again without this internal tool. And so
Speaker 9: really what brought us together is wanting to bring this
Speaker 9: tool to the masses through the lens of folks who
Speaker 9: are skeptical about it to begin with.
Speaker 3: So how does the tool actually work.
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 9: With any of these data tools, we take in massive
Speaker 9: amounts of data and really effect in the end we
Speaker 9: allow users to ask questions of that data. What's special
Speaker 9: about this particular UH this problem space, and then I'll
Speaker 9: talk about the tool.
Speaker 5: Is that.
Speaker 9: Some of the examples of data use that you described
Speaker 9: and the lead into this segment are all you know,
Speaker 9: on the business side, they are all assuming that the
Speaker 9: software is doing what the software does, that if you
Speaker 9: click check out on your shopping cart, that you actually,
Speaker 9: you know, you're able to check out with that item.
Speaker 9: Our software UH is intended more for the software engineering
Speaker 9: teams who are on the hook when you click check
Speaker 9: out and you can't actually check out with your with
Speaker 9: your purchase. When that happens, the engineering teams go, oh, no,
Speaker 9: you know, what assumptions do we make that we're wrong?
Speaker 9: Do we have a logical error somewhere, is the person
Speaker 9: is the you know, is it not actually a person
Speaker 9: clicking checkout?
Speaker 5: Is it a bot?
Speaker 6: It should should?
Speaker 9: Is it behaving correctly and not letting the bot check out?
Speaker 9: All of these questions rely on a massive amount of
Speaker 9: data as you touched on, but really that really quick
Speaker 9: response times. You know, if your e commerce site not
Speaker 9: able to let your customers check out, those are real
Speaker 9: dollars flying out the window and speed really really matters.
Speaker 2: So this tool brings people together, engineers specifically, right too, Okay,
Speaker 2: there's a bug or something or I can't check out.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Carol's got to be really ticked off,
Speaker 2: but we got to fix this, you know what I mean? Like,
Speaker 2: So that's what your tool does.
Speaker 9: Right exactly exactly, And what.
Speaker 4: Does this mean exactly for the growth in your business?
Speaker 4: How's it spurred more of that?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 9: One of the things that seems to always be true
Speaker 9: with engineers is we want to build bigger and better things,
Speaker 9: and as new technologies come out, we want to play
Speaker 9: with these new technologies. And many of the recent changes
Speaker 9: in this in our software space have made the systems
Speaker 9: that we've built more complicated. And when when the building
Speaker 9: blocks that you're using are more complicated. The tools that
Speaker 9: you use like Honeycomb to make sense of are these
Speaker 9: building blocks put together in the right way? Also need
Speaker 9: to need to be also more flexible to manage that complexity.
Speaker 9: And so, you know, we've all seen the world as
Speaker 9: moving online as consumer, I know my expectations of you know,
Speaker 9: how fast and reliable a piece of software have increased.
Speaker 9: That shifts a lot of the expectations onto these engineering
Speaker 9: teams that need to ensure that their software is behaving
Speaker 9: in the face of all this increased complexity and increased expectation.
Speaker 2: Christine, you guys shared some numbers. Momentum in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two achieved another consecutive year of two times revenue growth,
Speaker 2: drove over one hundred and sixty percent net revenue retention
Speaker 2: for six hundred plus customers globally. Has Generative AI changed that, like,
Speaker 2: are you even in more demand? Because this is complicated
Speaker 2: stuff and you're going to need those engineers really working together.
Speaker 2: And just got about a minute or so left short answers.
Speaker 9: Yes, I think that we're just on the cusp. We
Speaker 9: haven't seen you know, right now, engineering teams everywhere are
Speaker 9: thinking about how to incorporate generated AI. But absolutely, anytime
Speaker 9: you incorporate a black box into your system, you know
Speaker 9: that the AI is making decisions, engineering teams needed. Are
Speaker 9: the humans are going to be on the hook to
Speaker 9: figure out why they made those decisions and what are
Speaker 9: those are the right things? So absolutely I think that
Speaker 9: this space is only it has only just begun.
Speaker 2: So your space of this observability which I had never
Speaker 2: heard of, this concept, you know, how is that thing
Speaker 2: or not? When you create, you know that is going
Speaker 2: to be something even more important in this more kind
Speaker 2: of complicated AI space. And I'm just curious, does that
Speaker 2: mean you are already seeing more demand for your products?
Speaker 2: And just get about thirty forty seconds.
Speaker 9: I think the demand for our products is correlated with
Speaker 9: just general instant interest in cloud generative AI. Absolutely is increasing,
Speaker 9: you know, cloud commitments and clouds to spend across the board,
Speaker 9: but it's still early and absolutely I think that there's
Speaker 9: a lot of exciting times ahead of us.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 2: It makes sense and in terms of a space where
Speaker 2: these guys can work or these you know, women and
Speaker 2: men everybody kind of work together on a program really
Speaker 2: makes sense. Christine very cool, Christin Yah, Chief executive officer
Speaker 2: co founder of Honeycomb. Joining us from Reno, Nevada by zoom.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 7: Bomarcle.
Speaker 6: The Journal. Now about you, let me drive?
Speaker 1: No no, no, no, honey, please.
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Speaker 7: This is the Drive to the Clothes dot Com.
Speaker 1: Well by around each other down on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, just got about eighteen minutes left in
Speaker 2: today's trading session.
Speaker 3: We've got stocks hit.
Speaker 2: We're in the green, so we're off our worst levels
Speaker 2: of the session, as you just heard from Charlie. But
Speaker 2: just call it a little changed on the day. We
Speaker 2: really are just getting into the thick of earnings and
Speaker 2: trying to make sense and just on guard about any
Speaker 2: other problems in the banking sector.
Speaker 3: So, I mean, Jess, volume, what's volume like today?
Speaker 4: I mean, still it's not as high as you would
Speaker 4: think relative to the last twenty days, and I think
Speaker 4: a lot of that is just the same things we've
Speaker 4: been talking about, Carol waiting on those more regional banks.
Speaker 4: Let's say on Thursday we're going to get clear Third
Speaker 4: Key Corp as well US Bank. So I think that's
Speaker 4: really more of the focus leader on this week.
Speaker 2: All right, So let's get to it with our guests.
Speaker 2: Back with us is Doug Cioka, CEO and partner at
Speaker 2: Kavar Capital Partners. They've got over a billion in assets
Speaker 2: under management, based as you know, in Leewood, Kansas and
Speaker 2: joining us on the phone once again actually.
Speaker 3: Via zoom via zoom, Hey we can see you. How
Speaker 3: are you?
Speaker 10: I'm great? How are you do it?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 2: Trying to keep up with the flow here and trying
Speaker 2: to make sense. You know, it's funny. I wanted to
Speaker 2: kind of kick it off with you, Doug. Earlier with
Speaker 2: Romayne and Scarlett, the four of us were talking about
Speaker 2: and Scarlet brought up what's going on with the VIX
Speaker 2: and it's what below eighteen? I think seventeen and change.
Speaker 2: I don't quite get it. Sixteen ninety seven. Do you
Speaker 2: care about the VIX? Do you think it's a reliable
Speaker 2: indicator of something? Because it just feels like we're in
Speaker 2: this market environment where we're not quite sure what's next,
Speaker 2: and yet there feels like a fair amount of complacency.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and we may have used a little bit of
Speaker 11: maybe pulled forward some of this year's last year, Carol.
Speaker 10: I think last year there were forty.
Speaker 11: Six different trading days with two percent moves up or down,
Speaker 11: and actually it was twenty three and twenty three equally divided,
Speaker 11: which is pretty fantastic.
Speaker 10: And this year I think we've had two.
Speaker 11: So I think we saw so much fitful trading, indecision obviously,
Speaker 11: credit exported equity volatility, and this year, even though you
Speaker 11: know what, the Fed may have one more hike and
Speaker 11: maybe they won't cut as much as the markets and
Speaker 11: pricing in, I think there is a set of a
Speaker 11: bit of complacency that's setting in.
Speaker 10: I think more than.
Speaker 11: Anything, it's just that an exhaustion with the type better
Speaker 11: day training activity that become the norm throughout twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: Is it exhaustion or is it signs of we're kind
Speaker 2: of finishing up or getting near the end of this
Speaker 2: market cycle.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think nothing's been as bad as had been
Speaker 11: anticipated going into twenty twenty three, even when you throw
Speaker 11: in the issues that had transpired with the banking mini crisis, right,
Speaker 11: And I think when you saw what had transpired with
Speaker 11: this fear of contagion, that very anxious weekend, weren't sure
Speaker 11: what if any additional deposits are going to be covered
Speaker 11: by the FDIC of the FED.
Speaker 10: And then it just kind of played.
Speaker 11: Itself out and we realized that some of the additional
Speaker 11: liquidity could be a bit of a sav or otherwise
Speaker 11: deeper wounds that could have transpired, even though it may
Speaker 11: have been kind of the sword that caused the affliction
Speaker 11: to begin with.
Speaker 4: Doug, let's talk about earning seasons. We've gotten a number
Speaker 4: of these bigger banks as well as regional banks. Now,
Speaker 4: I know you're thinking more this is obviously more backward looking,
Speaker 4: but you look a year out, earnings growth is supposed
Speaker 4: to be back to double digits. What are you expecting?
Speaker 4: And is that why you might have a little bit
Speaker 4: more of an optimistic look when you are seeing earnings
Speaker 4: improving a year from now.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's a great question, Jessin.
Speaker 11: I think one of the things that's been so pronounced
Speaker 11: this year and it's only been one quarter, but patience
Speaker 11: has been kind of the enemy of performance.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 11: The valuation gap going into twenty twenty three between international
Speaker 11: and domestic closed very quickly. High tech sector went from
Speaker 11: like incredible laggard to darling leader. The banking issues pulled
Speaker 11: for the bulk of the Bond movie that we'd hope
Speaker 11: we'd see throughout all of twenty twenty three. So when
Speaker 11: you consider what's happening in earnings, we try to overlay
Speaker 11: this whole concept of a rolling recession, right, And that's
Speaker 11: just another way of characterizing right relative value of certain
Speaker 11: sectors based upon a few things correlation with interest rates,
Speaker 11: with underlying economic growth, and with sentiment. So when you're
Speaker 11: an environment for which we think is going to be
Speaker 11: higher for longer interest rates, slowish economic growth, sectors that
Speaker 11: benefit from scale, from inelastic demand, from low leverage from
Speaker 11: multinational distribution networks, those should hold investors' interest, and we're
Speaker 11: starting to see that as they're coming to kind of
Speaker 11: the earnings reporting table in healthcare, staples, communication services, and
Speaker 11: then even outside of those within the royal recession camp,
Speaker 11: you have idiosyncratic sort of tackle opportunities and sectors like
Speaker 11: energy and IT sectors like agriculture, because even those supply
Speaker 11: lines have improved supply hasn't. So we're seeing that an
Speaker 11: overestimation of just how negative kind of the economic client
Speaker 11: twenty twenty two is going to have and impacting their
Speaker 11: profit models and it's just not materialized.
Speaker 2: So is this a market where we can kind of
Speaker 2: make smart decisions, Doug, based on fundamentals versus kind of
Speaker 2: a technical trade?
Speaker 11: I think so, right everyone, It's probably overused expression on
Speaker 11: every program of our biggest stock pickers market, but I
Speaker 11: do think, right if you look at the last.
Speaker 10: Three years, what's underperformed quality company has been left behind.
Speaker 11: What's underporting more than quality sort of a subcategory dividend
Speaker 11: paying stocks.
Speaker 10: So if you have those two subsets that.
Speaker 11: Are providing comfort in balot sheet income statement and valuations,
Speaker 11: then yeah, I do think there can be specific spots
Speaker 11: where you can actually see identifiable alpha generating opportunities.
Speaker 10: No question, Doug.
Speaker 4: You're talking about quality companies and dividend paying stocks. What
Speaker 4: specific sectors or some industries are you recommending clients by
Speaker 4: right now?
Speaker 11: Yeah, So, going back to healthcare, staples, communication services, definitely
Speaker 11: dipping our toe into some financial services companies where we
Speaker 11: think just the valuation we're just blown out way beyond
Speaker 11: anything that could have been deserved because of the expected
Speaker 11: contagion with Silicon Value Bank and Signature Bank, and then
Speaker 11: even like in places like agriculture, we think there's a
Speaker 11: lot of opportunity.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's interesting.
Speaker 2: You know, we've been spending a lot of time here,
Speaker 2: Doug talking about kind of agriculture, what's going on, disruption, innovation.
Speaker 2: We're going to have somebody on from Bowery Farming later,
Speaker 2: but just there's a lot going on in that space
Speaker 2: as the world tries to make sure there's enough food
Speaker 2: for everybody where. Don't you want to be in this
Speaker 2: fee That's a good.
Speaker 10: Question, I think. You know, we were excited about extending duration.
Speaker 11: Are fixed income portfolios, and then with the massive rally
Speaker 11: we saw coming out of that second week in March,
Speaker 11: issues with the financial with the banking sector, that was
Speaker 11: kind of arbitraged away. So we don't want to be
Speaker 11: too long in our duration right now in our fixed
Speaker 11: income portfolios. You know, we don't want to be too
Speaker 11: aggressive in growth sectors of the market because we just
Speaker 11: don't think there's going to be any type of multiple expansion,
Speaker 11: not when you.
Speaker 10: Have a slower growing ecconomy and higher interest rates.
Speaker 11: So even though it's been exciting to see what's happened
Speaker 11: in tech, I think it could provide an opportunity to
Speaker 11: take some profits in that area, particularly if you're in
Speaker 11: a sector or a company that's seeing a pretty significant expansion.
Speaker 2: They're multiple, all right, So more optimistic or more pessimistic
Speaker 2: bottom line about the outlook sounds like optimisticistic.
Speaker 11: Oh my gosh, but by a lot, right. I think
Speaker 11: there are some interesting lessons we learned from the FED
Speaker 11: coming out of this little banking crisis. Right, you can't
Speaker 11: live in the lab and I think regulators are really
Speaker 11: good and in plenting implementing policies to prevent.
Speaker 10: The previous crisis.
Speaker 11: And because of that, the messaging really really matters when
Speaker 11: it gets convoluted, and when you see sort of babies
Speaker 11: and bathwater indiscriminately sold and thrown out, that's where opportunity
Speaker 11: really really lies very heavily with us. There's a really
Speaker 11: cool piece you guys price over the weekend. It came
Speaker 11: from Bloomberg Intelligence talking about this regime model. Yeah, it's
Speaker 11: so obsessed about how we going to a recession, how
Speaker 11: deep recession is going to be twenty three to twenty four,
Speaker 11: What they talk about with really liable inputs is we
Speaker 11: may have been in.
Speaker 6: One yeah, and we really have to creating a lot.
Speaker 10: Of reasons for being optimistic, which is depicting games.
Speaker 2: I love the new quote the next story.
Speaker 3: I wrote that love story.
Speaker 2: Oh Jess wrote it?
Speaker 3: Dogdoka? How great is that?
Speaker 7: All right?
Speaker 2: Doug b Well. Doug is CEO and partner at Kavar
Speaker 2: Capital Partners, joining us from lee Wick, Kansas.
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