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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go throwing a job. I'm sitting up to

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Speaker 3: cats touchdown. We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: but they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kabin you want to pay and

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Speaker 3: we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast with Odds,

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Speaker 3: presented by BETMGM. I'm your host, Chris Raybon. This is

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Speaker 3: your week fourteen betting preview. And I got my dude

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Speaker 3: as always with me, the Prime Minister of Dejenner Nation,

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Speaker 3: Stucky stuck. What's going on? How is your Week thirteen?

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Speaker 2: Winning NFL week? But some good and bad at the

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Speaker 2: Vikings against the Lions here, I was able to buy

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Speaker 2: that out for a little bit. When Feelan went down.

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Speaker 2: I mean that their entire advantage, having Felon and Jefferson

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Speaker 2: go against that secondary basically just went away and they

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Speaker 2: really paid for it. The red zone and third downs.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad that we both avoided because I joined you

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Speaker 2: on the Seahawks. We avoided overtime with the Seahawks and Steelers.

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Speaker 2: I just I mean those were the I think the

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Speaker 2: right sides, but I don't want to deal with any

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Speaker 2: more underdogs and overtime. And then I just I ended it.

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Speaker 2: I still in a winning week, but I ended it

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Speaker 2: on a sour note with the Broncos just turning it over.

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Speaker 2: I mean a muff punt turning over three times in

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Speaker 2: Chief's territory and then the Bills turning it over two

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Speaker 2: times inside the Pats twenty with zero points to end

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Speaker 2: the game and miss a thirty yard field goal, just

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Speaker 2: in crazy conditions. And part of my handicap there was

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Speaker 2: that Mac Jones wasn' gonna be able to throw with

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Speaker 2: his arm in those conditions, and then Alan would Obviously

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Speaker 2: that came to perotia. I mean, the Patriots have one

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Speaker 2: real long run. Other than that, they averaged three point

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Speaker 2: three yards per carry. Their success rate was awful. The

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Speaker 2: defense for the Bills was fine, but Alan looked okay

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Speaker 2: throwing the ball. Obviously there was going to be some win.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what the Bills were thinking on some

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Speaker 2: of the first down run that were just never working.

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Speaker 2: The only time they were moving the ball is when

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Speaker 2: they threw the ball on first down, and every time

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Speaker 2: they got down to the red zone. The one time

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Speaker 2: they threw it on first time the is were a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: They would have these first down runs and just waist downs,

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Speaker 2: and I think it was just awful play calling by

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Speaker 2: the Bills. That was an unfortunate loss. But as Mike

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Speaker 2: Tomlins said, last week.

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Speaker 3: Last week was last week, this week was this week,

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Speaker 3: and next week will be Next week was Mike tom

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Speaker 3: and by the way, improved to thirty and eight against

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Speaker 3: the spread as an underdog against the opponent with an

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Speaker 3: equal better record, So yeah, he was gloating a little

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Speaker 3: bit after that. I like this press conference. I love

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Speaker 3: the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we can make

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Speaker 3: what do you guys quit today? Like, I still feel

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Speaker 3: like people still shit on analytics too much because I

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Speaker 3: feel like I don't know what that I think I

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Speaker 3: was kind of a jab at analytics. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: But either way, it was an enjoyable week. I had

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Speaker 3: a pretty good Week two. But yeah, let's get on

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Speaker 3: to the next one. And I do feel like, by

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Speaker 3: the way, the Broncos were the right side. I played

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Speaker 3: them as well. Anytime you can hold the Chiefs to

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Speaker 3: twenty two points and you have a plus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half. I think I actually brought up to plus ten,

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Speaker 3: like you feel good about it?

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Speaker 2: So finis with you four hundred and four yards, so

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Speaker 2: that she's two sixty seven. So I would play that again.

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Speaker 2: But what are you gonna do?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just Petty Bridgewaters fourth against the Spread losses and

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Speaker 3: road Dog twenty and four. Now let's get into the

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Speaker 3: pod before we kick things off with our Thursday Night

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Speaker 3: preview and our Sunday six Pack and all that good stuff.

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Speaker 3: Three quick reminders. First, if you plan a bet on

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Speaker 3: any sport ever and you still have not downloaded the

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Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: It's got betting tools, it's got analysis from myself, Stucky,

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Speaker 3: the whole Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets

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Speaker 3: you track every bet that you make. Second, if you

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Speaker 3: need to reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime, all

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Speaker 3: you have to do is use the Action App follow

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Speaker 3: Sunday six Pack in the followup feature, we use that

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Speaker 3: account to track our picks there every Friday. And finally,

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Store just released its new collection of

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Speaker 3: for all of the sports betters on your list that

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Speaker 3: store dotactionnetwork dot com. All right, let's get to it, Stuck.

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Speaker 3: Let's get you cracking with Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: Okay. So we have the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that

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Speaker 3: I love to bet. We have the Minnesota Vikings, another

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Speaker 3: team that I love to bet, which is ironic because

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Speaker 3: I feel like both of their fans probably hate their

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Speaker 3: teams right now, even though Pittsburgh got that win. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's just up and down roller coasters. They feel like

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Speaker 3: they're dead every other week. But Minnesota favor by three

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Speaker 3: at BETMGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast,

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Speaker 3: with a total of forty three. You have thewen ruled

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Speaker 3: out and Stuck. It's interesting to me be because on

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Speaker 3: one side you have Mike Zimmer coming off a loss,

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Speaker 3: just art breaking, gut wrenching, probably season altering loss to

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Speaker 3: the previously winless Lions. But he's thirty four and seventeen

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Speaker 3: sixty seven percent against the spread in his career off

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Speaker 3: a loss, including fifteen and eleven as a favorite at

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Speaker 3: sixty five percent. He's also sixteen and five against the

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Speaker 3: spread off a multi game losing streak. That's seventy six percent.

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Speaker 3: And then on the other side you got Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 3: who's still thirty nine and sixteen with two pushes against

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Speaker 3: the spread as an underdog from week three on. That's

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Speaker 3: seventy one percent. And Mike Zimmer, he's only three and

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Speaker 3: eleven against the spread, is a favorite from twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: So I guess the trend's kind of stilling into it.

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Speaker 3: Tom Win is the dog here, but the line is

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Speaker 3: about right to me. I do worry about the Vikings

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Speaker 3: without the win so gun in my head, i'd probably

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Speaker 3: take the Steelers. But what do you.

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Speaker 2: Think without feeling, it's just you know, and I don't

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Speaker 2: think Dalvin Cook is playing either. Is that been updated?

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Speaker 3: He's got a chance because he did pract this on

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Speaker 3: a limited basis. I thought he was going to be

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Speaker 3: out for sure. They were saying it's week to week,

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Speaker 3: but they're at least going through the motions of him,

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Speaker 3: you know, having some limited practices, so he hasn't been

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Speaker 3: officially ruled out at least not as we record this

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Speaker 3: on Wednesday afternoon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think he's going to I don't think

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Speaker 2: he's going to play. But yeah, just without feeling, it

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Speaker 2: is a completely different passing attack because you're basically swapping

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Speaker 2: in you know, kJ Osborne for Adam Feeling, and that

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Speaker 2: hurts you on third downs, that hurts you in the

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Speaker 2: red zone. We saw that last week against the lines.

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Speaker 2: It also enables you to put more attention on Justin Jefferson.

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Speaker 2: So this all of a sudden, this offense with the

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Speaker 2: strength has been Cousins and these two dynamic receivers, and

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Speaker 2: then you saw it against a terrible Lion secondary last

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Speaker 2: week that without feeling, it's just they're a lot easier

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Speaker 2: to defend. On the other side of the ball, the

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh offense is still ugly. It's still hard to watch,

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Speaker 2: and the Vikings defense is getting a lot healthier, right,

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Speaker 2: They've gotten healthier. It should be getting healthier linebacker this week.

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Speaker 2: They got healthier on the defensive line over the past

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Speaker 2: couple weeks. Peterson should be back, so it's hard to

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Speaker 2: see the Steelers doing much. This total has come down.

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Speaker 2: It is on a fast track. Indoors. This Steelers offense.

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Speaker 2: I don't see it doing much against the Vikings, and

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Speaker 2: without feeling I don't see the Vikings doing much. I

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Speaker 2: would look at it, you know, if I hadn't played

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Speaker 2: this game, I might I would take the under and

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Speaker 2: then if you can get like a free hook like

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Speaker 2: plus three and a half minus one ten, which isn't

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Speaker 2: out there yet, I wouldn't hate that these are two

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Speaker 2: desperate teams. Loser of this game is probably out of

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, you know, looking at what are the well.

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Speaker 3: The Steelers are, They're not in terrible shaper if they lose,

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Speaker 3: because I personally know a little teaser. But I know

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Speaker 3: we're going to disagree on the Ravens. But I think

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Speaker 3: the Bengals are gonna lose this week and I think

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Speaker 3: the Browns are gonna lose this week. So the Steelers

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Speaker 3: actually might not be buried yet. But that's for a

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Speaker 3: the six pack discussion.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if think it's a six six and

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Speaker 2: one if they lose this game, I mean, the Ravens

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Speaker 2: just need two wins to get to ten, including a

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Speaker 2: home win over this against this home game against the

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Speaker 2: Steelers to close out the year. Yeah, So I mean

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Speaker 2: the Steelers have Tennessee, then they're at Kansas City, then

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Speaker 2: they're home against Cleveland at Baltimore. I mean, a brutal

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Speaker 2: schedule coming up. So I think they need to win

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Speaker 2: this game. Minnesota is actually not dead yet either, but

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Speaker 2: they need to win this game. I think if they

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Speaker 2: lose this game, they're dead because you got to remember

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Speaker 2: that they also don't have the tie breaker with San Francisco,

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Speaker 2: which could be huge, right because they lost straight up

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Speaker 2: to San Francisco. They still have a trip to Green Bay,

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Speaker 2: they have the Rams left, and they have two games

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Speaker 2: against the Bears. So you lose this game, I think

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Speaker 2: the Vices has done the two desperate teams. I think

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Speaker 2: the Vikings are a little bit of a better team,

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Speaker 2: but without feeling really hurts their offense. I think that

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Speaker 2: this line should be maybe a hair under three. Total

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Speaker 2: should be like forty two ish, so a little bit

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Speaker 2: of value on the under. And then I think that

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Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value on the Steelers if

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Speaker 2: you can get plus three and a half minus one

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Speaker 2: to ten, which I don't necessarily think that we're gonna get.

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Speaker 2: So this looks like something a game that I'll stay

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Speaker 2: away from. I will also, I mean, if you want

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Speaker 2: to get involved and have some action, I wouldn't hate

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Speaker 2: a Steelers teaser. If you want to chease the Steelers

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Speaker 2: from three to nine with some of the cheeser options

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about later, I think that's fine. Especially a low,

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Speaker 2: low total, low scoring game. And the Vikings have played

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Speaker 2: every single one of their games except one has been

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Speaker 2: decided by one possession, and that hawk three against the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: Of course, that might be your best route to tease

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Speaker 2: this up with a you know, a very low total

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Speaker 2: in a game that I think should be ultimately close.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you have this, you know, Mike Tomlin. Historically these

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Speaker 3: defenses have traveled. You know, the Steelers defense will banged up.

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Speaker 3: But when the total is above forty three and the

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Speaker 3: Steelers are on the road, in Tomlin's career, forty four

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Speaker 3: seventeen and one seventy under his hit so it's it's

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Speaker 3: sitting right around that that forty three forty three and

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Speaker 3: a half number, depending on what book you're at. But

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Speaker 3: just that I throw that in there, you.

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Speaker 2: Do usually, yeah, I mean situationally, also, there is a

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Speaker 2: it is a you know, I think the Steelers are

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Speaker 2: desperate enough that washes this out. But situationally, this spot

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Speaker 2: favors the Vikings a bit. I mean they're the I

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Speaker 2: think the better team, small favorite. They're at home on

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Speaker 2: a short week, and they're coming off of devastating, you know,

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Speaker 2: embarrassing loss, whereas the Steelers are coming off like a

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Speaker 2: hard fought win, huge win against their rival, traveling on

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Speaker 2: a short week in a in a really tough environment

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Speaker 2: and a you know, primetime game in Minnesota will have

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Speaker 2: be very loud and have you know, the home field

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Speaker 2: is diminishing with each passing day, but this won't be

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Speaker 2: an easy place to play in a pretty pretty efficiently lined.

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Speaker 3: Game like just gut few. I think the Steelers win

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Speaker 3: this game because I know Kirk Cousins. I like Kirk Cousins.

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Speaker 3: I think Kirk Cousins probably prime time Kirk. That's one.

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Speaker 3: But not only that. You know what Kirk Cousins does.

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Speaker 3: He makes the right That's going to be not the

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Speaker 3: recipe for success when you only have justin Jefferson, Like

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Speaker 3: you can get away with it when you have Feeling

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Speaker 3: and Jefferson, and then if both of them are doubled,

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Speaker 3: the right read is going to like the third guy,

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Speaker 3: it's like, okay, well, we used to get in single coverage.

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Speaker 3: You know, Conklin and Oz weren't having like the worst

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Speaker 3: third you know, tight end and third receiver. They've been

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Speaker 3: they've been serviceable. But it's like now you take that away,

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Speaker 3: and like, you know, if Cousin's moving off Jefferson, it's Osbourne,

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Speaker 3: it's top Conklin, it's d D. Westbrook. I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: probably not Dalvin Cook, you know, as a checkdown. So

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Speaker 3: it's just it's gonna be real frustrating for Vikings fans,

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Speaker 3: Like Vikings fans are probably dreading this game more than

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Speaker 3: Steelers fans are dreading this game, even though the Steelers

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Speaker 3: are the dog here. Like, I'll tell you that much.

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Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good Let's move on

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Speaker 2: to the six pack, do it.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the week fourteen Sunday six pack courtesy

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Speaker 3: of our friends at Athletic Brewing Company.

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Speaker 1: There's deeper action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, Stuck's been a tight race. Forty thirty nine. I'm

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Speaker 3: up by a point here for people unfamiliar, two points

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Speaker 3: for each of our first two picks, one point for

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Speaker 3: the third, and then we get a point for the total,

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Speaker 3: which we'll do in the next segment. We can pick

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Speaker 3: the same game as long as we're on different sides,

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Speaker 3: but we can't make the same pick. So I am

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Speaker 3: up first this week. I will start it off with

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Speaker 3: my first pick of the week, fourteen Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 3: going with the San Francisco forty nine ers minus one

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Speaker 3: at the Cincinnati Bengals. And this line hopefully he sought

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Speaker 3: me posted in an app. I actually got it out a

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Speaker 3: plus two. It's up to minus one. I'm still gonna

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Speaker 3: roll with it for the contest, but not quite as

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Speaker 3: much value. I still think the Niners win the game,

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Speaker 3: which is why I'm still taking the minus one here.

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Speaker 3: But I look at this Niner team, and both of

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Speaker 3: these teams, by the way, are banged up. So you know, people,

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Speaker 3: you could probably make a case reach side in terms of, oh,

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Speaker 3: this guy's hurt for this team, this guy's hurt for

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Speaker 3: that team. But what it comes down to for me

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Speaker 3: is a couple of things.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: Number One, San Francisco is just a better team. You

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Speaker 3: have a close spread, heer San Francisco's they're seventh in

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Speaker 3: overall DVOA. Cincinnati's nineteenth. San Francisco's offense doesn't get enough credit.

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Speaker 3: You know, they started off a little shaky and they

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Speaker 3: were trying to mix tray lance and Shannon had openly

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Speaker 3: admitted that that was kind of slowing him down in

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Speaker 3: terms of play calling. He wasn't at his best when

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Speaker 3: he was trying to mix a lance because he's a

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Speaker 3: guy that kind of reads, you know, sets up a

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Speaker 3: play with a play later, and it just they got

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Speaker 3: different coverages when it's Jimmy g versus Lance. So that's

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Speaker 3: really helped this offense come together. They're fourth in past

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Speaker 3: DVOA and sixth and run DVOA and that's not a

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Speaker 3: fluke because the big edge San Francisco has in his

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Speaker 3: game as in the trenches. You look at their PFF

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Speaker 3: grades on the offensive line, their third third in run

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Speaker 3: blocking or seventh in pass blocking. Cincinnati is sixteenth and

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Speaker 3: run blocking twenty third and pass blocking on offense. So

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Speaker 3: that's why if you look at these two offenses, you

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Speaker 3: might think Cincinnati's more talented, which they probably are. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you got Jamar Chase, you got Burrow, you got Higgins.

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Speaker 3: But the issue is the line has the blocking hasn't

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Speaker 3: been as good, and that's what told in Cincinnati back.

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Speaker 3: But San Francisco is a top six offense here, and

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Speaker 3: then San Francisco is one of only two teams in

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Speaker 3: the NFL that's been better than the Bengals in red

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Speaker 3: zone offense. San Francisco's number one, Cincinnati's number three. So

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Speaker 3: I always say you need to score to beat Cincinnati.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna put points on the board. They have talent

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Speaker 3: on offense. But my issue for Cincinnati is, yes, I

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Speaker 3: know San Francisco's banged up, Deebo probably won't play. Mitchell's

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Speaker 3: in a protocol. Hopefully he gets cleared. San Francisco can

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Speaker 3: still run on anyone with any back because of their

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Speaker 3: line and their scheme. But Mitchell's been excellent, so I

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Speaker 3: do hope he's back. But running backs really aren't work

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Speaker 3: much to the spread of anything except like Derrek Henry

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Speaker 3: maybe tailor. But you look at Cincinnati and what really

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Speaker 3: concerns me for them is Joe Burrow's finger injury. Because

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Speaker 3: we've seen this before. You know the finger injury. Taysom

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Speaker 3: Hill gets a finger injury, throws four picks like Taysom

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Speaker 3: Hill never a great passer, but four picks he's usually

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Speaker 3: a guy. He's not gonna turn them all over like that.

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Speaker 3: We've seen Russell Wilson coming back probably too early from

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Speaker 3: a finger injury and it's still you know, took him

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Speaker 3: another three weeks to get right from that, and now Burrow,

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Speaker 3: you know he's gonna play through it. He's a tough guy.

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Speaker 3: But we all saw him on the sideline. You know

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Speaker 3: that that's obviously bothering him. He didn't have a very

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Speaker 3: good game after injuring the finger. And on top of that,

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Speaker 3: Te Higgins is in practice, and that's big because that's

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Speaker 3: he's been. He's been more productive than Jamar Chase lately

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Speaker 3: and he's allowed you know, defenses are kind of zeroing

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Speaker 3: in on Chase. He's allowed the Bengals to still be

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Speaker 3: productive despite their propensity to turn the ball over, despite

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Speaker 3: their kind of shaky to below average block. So he's

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Speaker 3: a he would be a big loss if he's not

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Speaker 3: close to one hundred percent or is out, and then

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Speaker 3: Joe Mixon also not practicing. I think he's gonna be

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Speaker 3: all right, but I think it's going to be an

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Speaker 3: ugly practice week for the Bengals, even though they're at

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Speaker 3: home San Francisco is a more physical team. It's December

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Speaker 3: football against the injured Bengals team. Yeah, give me the

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Speaker 3: Niners minus one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean since Week eight, the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: offensee week eight and week thirteen number one in EPA

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Speaker 2: per play. The Bengals, by the way, are twenty fourth.

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Speaker 2: A lot of that is because of play calling, right.

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Speaker 2: I trust the forty nine Ers play calling more so

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Speaker 2: than that. Mean, I think the Bengals play calling is

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Speaker 2: the time is really holds him back. And you're right

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Speaker 2: about the finger. The forty nine ers secondary injuries are

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Speaker 2: a bit concerning Bultimately, that's.

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Speaker 3: A big loss, and that's Chase in fantasy. Chase is

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Speaker 3: like my wide receiver five. He should go off. That's

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Speaker 3: a big loss. And that's why I say the nine

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Speaker 3: is probably gonna have to throw it a little bit

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Speaker 3: to win his game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't mind this over because I mean the

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers offensive they could have a lot of success.

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Speaker 2: He also doesn't look like a woozy. He's gonna play Yeah,

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Speaker 2: or he's been he's been great. I mean he's been

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Speaker 2: heer PF. I think he's been a top ten corner

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 3: Mogan Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Wilson, he's been playing as their best linebacker in a

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Speaker 2: group that's probably their weakness, and that's not good against

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Speaker 2: San Frantine that can run around anyone and has a

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Speaker 2: healthy George Kittle the other really you know, the other

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Speaker 2: talented piece that gets kind of gets pressure. The Bengals

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Speaker 2: aren't a team that's going to get a ton of

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Speaker 2: pressure off the edge, but Terry Hendrickson is going to

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Speaker 2: be the one that has to supply that. Well, you

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Speaker 2: have Trent Williams to kind of neutralize him. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I agree. I think that. I mean, this Bengals team's

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Speaker 2: very Doctor Jekyll Mister Hyde, but I think the ford

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Speaker 2: Nners are clear superior team here. I think where the

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Speaker 2: Fortyners would actually get a leg up in the injury

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Speaker 2: department is if Deebo Samuel is actually able to play.

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Speaker 2: He's day to day. I don't think he's gonna play,

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Speaker 2: but there's a chance.

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Speaker 3: Warner and that's also big when you have like Burrow

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Speaker 3: Mixing and Higgins you know messed up. Having Warner back there,

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Speaker 3: that really stabilizes the defense, which is another reason why

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Speaker 3: I jumped on San Francisco early.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind San Frano. I don't mind the

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Speaker 2: over here all right. For my first pick of the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I am going with the Cleveland Browns

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Speaker 2: minus two and a half against the Baltimore Ravens. Keep

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Speaker 2: trying to keep my undefeated Street Lyle and Ravens. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: unfortunately I have to in the Sunday six pack, I

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Speaker 2: have to fade them for a second straight week. I

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Speaker 2: was so happy that Harball went for two last week

383
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Speaker 2: because of my bet. And I think that the Ravens

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Speaker 2: will ultimately end up beating like either the Rams or

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Speaker 2: Packers at home, maybe the Bengals, and then they'll close

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Speaker 2: out the year with the Steelers with a win at

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Speaker 2: home to get the ten wins, which will get him

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Speaker 2: into playoffs. But I don't think this team is going anywhere.

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Speaker 2: They're just look, you get in and anything can happen,

390
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Speaker 2: But they're not going to get the one seed. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't look like I should say there's just too many injuries.

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Speaker 2: It's like that all the fail safes of the damn

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Speaker 2: have broken. I mean all the injuries they've already led

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Speaker 2: the NFL and IR players on the IR and then

395
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Speaker 2: last week you lose Marlon Humphrey, who is all Pro corner,

396
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Speaker 2: one of the best corners in the NFL, and now

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Speaker 2: you don't have three of your original four starting defensive backs.

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Speaker 2: It is rough. They also lost their right tackle and

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Speaker 2: that ended up being huge factor. Things won't get any

400
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Speaker 2: better this week against the brown Zed Rush. But this

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Speaker 2: is horrible situational spot for the Ravens. I just can't

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Speaker 2: think of a worse one. I mean, this is the

403
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Speaker 2: Browns are coming off of a late season by which

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Speaker 2: they desperately needed, right. You get they were really banged up,

405
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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield in particular. They needed some rest. They played

406
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Speaker 2: twelve straight weeks without a buye. Before the bye week,

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Speaker 2: they played the Ravens in Baltimore and again they probably

408
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Speaker 2: should have won. And they have two weeks, so they

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Speaker 2: prepared for the Ravens for a week. They have two

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Speaker 2: weeks to rest and prepare for the Ravens again. They've

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Speaker 2: basically been preparing for the Ravens for three weeks and

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Speaker 2: this game basically determines their season. They lose this game,

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Speaker 2: they're done. Presumably they win this game, they're back in

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Speaker 2: the mix in the division, in the wild card, and

415
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Speaker 2: they've had three weeks to prepare mean, while the Ravens

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Speaker 2: last week were on the road to be their second

417
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Speaker 2: arry road game in Pittsburgh at a really physical game

418
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Speaker 2: that went right down to the wire and they lost

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Speaker 2: two key players and got beat up. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: just situationally, this is a dream spot for the Browns.

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Speaker 2: You finally have Hunt and Chubb healthy. You know, the

422
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Speaker 2: receivers are getting healthier. Mayfield got time to heal up

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Speaker 2: their breath. Their defense is as healthy as it's been

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Speaker 2: all year. You know, this Ravens hem just isn't playing well.

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Speaker 2: And this is my team. By the way, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be at the game in Ravens year with a Browns

427
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Speaker 2: minus two and a half ticket, so that should be interesting.

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Speaker 2: But since Week six, the Ravens offense twenty second EPA

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Speaker 2: per play twenty six and drop back EPA per play,

430
00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: their defense twenty six in EPA per play, twenty eighth

431
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 2: and drop back EPA per play. There's regression coming. If

432
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 2: you look at the regression profiles of both teams, Ravens

433
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL in third down defense, Cleveland

434
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: is twenty six. Yet the Browns are second in success

435
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: rate twelfth and EPA per play on early downs. The

436
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 2: Ravens are twenty eighth in EPA per play on early downs,

437
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: tenth and success rate. I mean, while the Browns are

438
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 2: getting healthier and coming off by and the Ravens are

439
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 2: not getting any healthier. Ravens offense also seventy percent on

440
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: fourth down number one in the NFL. They're always going

441
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: to be probably up there more towards the top. But

442
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 2: the Browns even think too, but they're forty three percent.

443
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: That's twenty six. How about the Ravens defense number one

444
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: in red zone d Cleveland twenty seventh. So there's a

445
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 2: lot of I think regression coming for both of these teams.

446
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 2: I just don't think Lamar Jackson also is completely healthy

447
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 2: right now. He just looks a little off. You know,

448
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 2: he's dealt with an illness, He's dealt with an injury

449
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 2: this year. Since Week seven, only Trevor Lawrence and Tyrod

450
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 2: Taylor have been worse in terms of EPA plus completion

451
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: percentage over expectation among thirty four quarterbacks with at least

452
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: one hundred snaps. That's bad. So, I mean, there's something

453
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 2: going on with his Ravens offense. It's not right. And

454
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 2: they were just Look, this team has been kind of

455
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,719
Speaker 2: smoking mirrors for a lot of the year. They went

456
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 2: stick before last week when they lost a one possession game.

457
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,199
Speaker 2: And by the way, there's a reason they went for two.

458
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 2: They must have really liked to play. But John Harball

459
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 2: after the game said, we didn't have any corners left.

460
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 2: That's not what you want to hear in going in

461
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: the week fourteen. You know, before last week when they

462
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 2: lost that one possession game, they were six and zero

463
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: one possession games, including two and overtime, many of them

464
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: crazy comebacks in the fourth quarter. First. You know, third

465
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 2: team in the last forty years to have five fourth

466
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: quarter comeback victories in their first ten games. So this

467
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 2: team was a lot of smoking mirrors. I think they're

468
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: trending in the wrong direction. I think the Browns get

469
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 2: the revenge in a great situational spot. So give me

470
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 2: Cleveland laying under a field goal here.

471
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 3: They get me motherfucker's money if he giving it away.

472
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 3: I guess the only way for me to continue is

473
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 3: to give you my second overall pick and the third

474
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 3: overall pick of the Sunday six pack, because I'm going

475
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: with your Baltimore Ravens plus two and a half against

476
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 3: the Cleveland Browns. I hear you, Baltimore is not playing well,

477
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 3: but I think Baltimore wins this game. I'm fading you

478
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 3: in a Ravens game. Hey, you're doing for regression to

479
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 3: what if you it's like eight straight Ravens. You're You're

480
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: right on, But I do think there are some things

481
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: that benefit the Ravens here. And like, listen, I get it.

482
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 3: I've watched every game I see. I know Baltimore is

483
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 3: not playing well. I bet against him last week. You know,

484
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 3: we both did. But I look at Baltimore and let's

485
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 3: start with the defense. Because everyone's worried about Marlon Humphrees absence.

486
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 3: That's big, he's one of he's their best corner I

487
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 3: get it. But you're playing Cleveland. There might not be

488
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: a better team this side of Detroit to play without

489
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 3: cornerbacks then against Lee, because what does Cleveland want to do?

490
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 3: They want to run the ball. They don't even have

491
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 3: Odell Beckham to give you that daint like that, that

492
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 3: sense of you got to cover more than one guy.

493
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 3: So now it's just all Jarvis Landry. Uh So like

494
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 3: you can you can take care of that because Cleveland,

495
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: it's not like Jarvis Landry's going deep every play or

496
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: anything like that.

497
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: You could they could have Schwartz back this week. You

498
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,360
Speaker 2: could have Higgins out Anthony.

499
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 3: Both of these guys have been healthy scratches like those Like,

500
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,199
Speaker 3: all right, those guys aren't consequential receivers, Like you wouldn't

501
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 3: add anything to the spread for Cleveland if those guys played,

502
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: is what I'm saying.

503
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: Like those are saying potential deep threats to worry about,

504
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: like Schwartz will just be saying.

505
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: But I'm saying, like people people's jokes, you're gonna single

506
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 3: cover those dudes regardless, is my point. Like Beckham, it's

507
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: like you're you might shift safety like you do things

508
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 3: with your safeties. But all right, let's look at Baltimore.

509
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 2: Ski.

510
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: Maybe they play a little more zone now that they

511
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 3: don't have corners, but we know Wig Martin, he plays

512
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: man and he's gonna play man. Cleveland averages almost a

513
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 3: yard more per attempt versus zone than man covered. So

514
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 3: I still think Baltimore's gonna play man and they I

515
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: still think they can because even if you have Higgins

516
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 3: and Schwartz and all those guys healthy JaMarcus Bradley, whoever,

517
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: you're gonna single cover those guys. So I don't actually

518
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 3: think the Humphrey loss changes their scheme in this game. Now, Yeah,

519
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: everyone's like down in the Baltimore defense right now. And

520
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 3: yes we know that third down red zone does regress

521
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 3: to the means it's hard to continue, but you're still

522
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: talking about the number one third down defense and the

523
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 3: number one red zone defense. Baltimore still knows how to

524
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: play situationally. They're better coached, I think, on both sides

525
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 3: of the ball. But more importantly, and this speaks to

526
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 3: what happened with Cleveland. They got Baltimore to turn it

527
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: over four times with Lamar Jackson on those interceptions and

528
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 3: they lose sixteen to ten. Why because Cleveland offensively is

529
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 3: terribly situationally. They're twenty fifth on third down and they're

530
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: twenty second in the red zone. They're also twenty seventh

531
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: on fourth down on offense. So this Cleveland teams like,

532
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 3: to me, the Cleveland team is kind of smoking maryor too.

533
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: It's like, and I've been wrong on Cleveland. I bet

534
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 3: I bet them. You know, I won the bet on them,

535
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 3: betting the Bengals against them, but lost the bet on them.

536
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: With New England, they got blown out. But I think

537
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 3: this is why they struggle with the situational football. You know,

538
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 3: I know they're a little bit healthier, but Baker Mayfield

539
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: still messed up. Like I'll take Lamar over Baker, even

540
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 3: this version of Lamar over Baker, who's thrown more, turned

541
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 3: it over more than he's had touchdowns over the past

542
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 3: six weeks. I'll still take that version of Lamar over Baker.

543
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 3: And then the same issues with Cleveland extend to the

544
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball situationally twenty six on third down,

545
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 3: twenty seventh in the red zone. So Cleveland might have

546
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 3: the better metrics, and they might be able to move

547
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: it up and down the field, and you might feel

548
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: good about your you know your bet at certain points,

549
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 3: but I guarantee you there's gonna be the point where

550
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 3: Cleveland just goes it just messes the staying up. And

551
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: then so let's look at the other side though, Baltimore

552
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: on offense. I know Baltimore has been struggling lately, but

553
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: this could be a get right game for for Baltimore.

554
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 3: Number One, I don't think Jackson is gonna throw four

555
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 3: picks again, you know, after they just played him a

556
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 3: few weeks ago. But Cleveland runs zone at the fourth

557
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 3: highest rate, They're probably gonna do that in this game

558
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 3: because it's it's hard to play man coverage on the Ravens. Really,

559
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 3: the Dolphins were the only team I think that's done

560
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 3: a truly successful job at that this year. But two

561
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: yards more per target is Baltimore versus zone than man.

562
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: Remember Cleveland zone fourth highest rate, eight point five versus zone,

563
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 3: six point five versus man. So you'd like to play

564
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 3: man against Baltimore. I don't know if Cleveland does it.

565
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 3: That's hasn't been their tendency. And then situationally Cleveland coming

566
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 3: off the buye, but a lot of the value of

567
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 3: those like has been been out lately. You haven't really

568
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 3: seen an edge with home team's home favorites coming off

569
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: of buye, but we have seen an edge with Harball

570
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 3: in these spots. That loss against Pittsburgh was the first

571
00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 3: time in Harball's career that Baltimore did not cover in

572
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 3: a divisional road game from Week ten on, excluding Week seventeen,

573
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: because a lot of times you're dealing with rest. But

574
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 3: from Week ten to sixteen, the Baltimore Ravens under Harbaugh

575
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 3: eleven one and two ninety two percent against the spread

576
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 3: in divisional road games. The Ravens are thirty and twenty

577
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 3: one with three pushes fifty nine percent against the spread

578
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: with Harball as a road underdog, and Lamar Jackson is

579
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: still sixty one percent against the spread in his career

580
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: on the road. So I think the Ravens are still

581
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 3: the better team here. I get that Cleveland's coming off

582
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 3: to buy Ravens are playing well. I I just see

583
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: some advantages for the Ravens in this spot, namely that

584
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 3: I don't think the Humphrey loss is gonna hurt as

585
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 3: much in this game. In by the way, the Ravens

586
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 3: are still top five and DV away against the run

587
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: and their eighth and pressure rate Mayfield thirty third out

588
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 3: of thirty seven quarterbacks in PFF grade under pressure, So

589
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: I just think this is a Mayfield pressure spot. I

590
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 3: think I still think you're gonna see some blitzes because

591
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: I still think he can play man coverage even without Humphrey.

592
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, let's go head to head with the good

593
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: old four point swing for our contest in this one.

594
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: Because I so a lot of times. If we have

595
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 3: the same pick, I'll go with it for like a

596
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: one pointer. But I honestly like the Ravens is a

597
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 3: top two pick this week, So I don't feel good

598
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 3: about it, but.

599
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: I'll uh yeah, let's let's battle it. I agree with

600
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: you that the buye is a bit overrated, but this

601
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: is a different situation and that you're playing the same

602
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 2: team you played before the bye.

603
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 3: Like how you won not happen, but you won well

604
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 3: committing four turnovers and I get that, like that's supposed

605
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: to reverse, but like that's the whole point. It's like

606
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: Cleveland still couldn't win that game.

607
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: What makes you it is unprecedented they get three three

608
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:47,479
Speaker 2: straight weeks of preparation for one team with your season

609
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 2: on the line. I think the sense of urgency will

610
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: be with Cleveland here and they should look a lot healthier.

611
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,719
Speaker 2: I think after this bye week they've been I mean

612
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: they've needed a buyeh, I think more than any other

613
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,719
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. All right, let me move on

614
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: to my second pick of the Sunday six pack. I'm

615
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: going with the Buffalo Bills. You can get a cheap

616
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:08,719
Speaker 2: pook out there. We'll give me a cheap hook. I'll

617
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 2: owe your cheap hook. Okay, can I get to the I.

618
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 3: Get to point five? For San Francisco, they just have

619
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: to win the game, all right, Yeah, so you could

620
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 3: get the three and a half then, because yeah, at

621
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 3: bet MGM. Just to be clear, and the reason we're

622
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: doing this is because at bet MGM the Niners are

623
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: minus one and the Bills are plus three. But there

624
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 3: are spots you could get a three and a half.

625
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 3: Uh So I'll give you that for the contest of that.

626
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 3: I think it was by three. You win that since

627
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: we don't we don't reward pushes here on the actually podcast.

628
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, I would you need to and I wouldn't

629
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: play this at three, but I would play this at

630
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: three and a half. And it's at BETM GYM right now.

631
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: It's a juice three towards the Bucks. Look, when I

632
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: look at this game, the Bills last week basically shot

633
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: themselves in the foot. They were playing in conditions that

634
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 2: ended up not favoring them. I mean, the wind was

635
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 2: so much worse than I thought, but their play calling

636
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: on first down was awful. They were trying to run,

637
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 2: they were too afraid of the win. And I really

638
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: didn't take much from that game. It's one of those

639
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 2: just crazy games that you can't really take I mean,

640
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 2: the Patriots completed what one pass the entire game, just

641
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: a wild game, one of those wild weather games that

642
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: you can't take too much from. The Bills are still

643
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL in DBI defense. They've been

644
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: a little jack and hide on offense, which I'll get into,

645
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 2: but their defense has been pretty dominant all year long,

646
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: outside of one game against the Colts power running team

647
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: that you know, just was on a mission that day,

648
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 2: playoff revenge and came out and just whooped their ass.

649
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 2: You're gonna have a couple of games like that every year.

650
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: But other than that, their defense has been dominant. And

651
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: the loss of Trey White does hurt, and it will

652
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 2: hurt here, but I like, I don't mind Dane Jackson

653
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: as a backup. He's gonna be Look, you're gonna have

654
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 2: to give him more help. You're not gonna be as

655
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: flexible without Trey White. He's one of the best corners

656
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: in the AFC. But I don't think they have just

657
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: a you know, complete scrub on the outside of corner.

658
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: Brady's gonna be able to move the ball here. But

659
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: this isn't a power running team. This isn't I mean,

660
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: maybe if they if they want to come out and

661
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: run with Fournette, fine, I mean, yeah, take the ball

662
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: out of Brady's ends. But this is like a team

663
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 2: that the Bills match up pretty well with and on

664
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, this is the team

665
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: that I think, after especially after last week, when the

666
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 2: Bills that they're very smart and analytically driven staff, one

667
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 2: of the best staffs in the entire nfought. I think

668
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: they shipped the bed last week after seeing them fail

669
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: trying to run on first downs and run on first staffs.

670
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 2: You've seen them make drastic corrections on a week to

671
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 2: week basis after loss. I don't think you see them

672
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: try to run once here, and you're not gonna be

673
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: able to run on Tapa. Tampa's secondary dealing with some

674
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: injuries they've dealt with, they've been shuffling in guys in

675
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: and out, all your Jamel Deans in concussion protocol. But

676
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: I think Josh Allen can attack this secondary. I just

677
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 2: think this is a great matchup for the Bills, especially

678
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 2: if you're getting the hook here. I still think the Bills.

679
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: I still the Bills Power Ad is the second best

680
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. I would take them plus three

681
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: and a half against anybody on any field anytime. They

682
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: are completely desperate for this win. And it's a team

683
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: that you know, you look at their record and you say, look,

684
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 2: there's seven and five. Why why is their offense so

685
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: much different than last year? Well, Josh Allen's accuracy has

686
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: regressed a little bit. He's looked pretty good though the

687
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks. I mean even looked made some

688
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 2: great throws in fifty mile hour win Gus but I

689
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: had probably his best game of the year against the Saints.

690
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: But they've also dealt with a lot of other issues.

691
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 2: They had, you know, Spencer Brown, their right tackle, John Feliciano.

692
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 2: I think we'll be back this week. They've only played

693
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: in two games together and they put up thirty one

694
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: and thirty eight points against the Chiefs and the Titans.

695
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: When they when they don't have Spencer Brown on the

696
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 2: right side, but Williams attackle it's a disaster and Alan

697
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 2: has been under fire and pressure from all avenues all

698
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 2: the time. There's also just an extremely unlucky aspect to

699
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: this Bills team this year, and I think there's major

700
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 2: regression coming. Look at all their one possession losses. What

701
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 2: are they one in five and one possession games this year?

702
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 2: So they've been right there. Their epas per penalties lost,

703
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 2: their epas per turnovers loss, So all their penalties and

704
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 2: turnovers have come in like just so such critical times

705
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: variants fluky. How about their fourth down offense thirty three percent?

706
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: I mean, so there is just a lot of things

707
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 2: on this offense that I think have been unlucky. Spencer

708
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 2: Brown now back at right tackle, wide receivers are now healthy.

709
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 2: I mean, Beasley was dealing with some issues, and I

710
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: think they just come out and throw an Alan can

711
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 2: attack this secondary which has just been trying to find

712
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 2: its continuity all year. Desperate Bills team off the loss

713
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 2: needing a win, bucks just kind of I mean, they

714
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: obviously are still going to have incentive to win every game,

715
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 2: but they're sitting pretty right there. They're winning the division.

716
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 2: Did they clinch? Did they clinch the division already?

717
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 3: If they beat the Bills, they probably don't lose again

718
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: all year. I mean, they have Caroluina, they have the Jets,

719
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 3: Like this is a pretty doable schedule.

720
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, so they're kind of like fat and happy and

721
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: kind of relaxed here, and this is an out of

722
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: conference game against the Bills. Do they I don't think

723
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: they really show everything. I think the Bills come out

724
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 2: with their hair on fire, with a great game plan,

725
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 2: well prepared. Can Brady lead them back at the end

726
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 2: and Bucks win by a field goal? And then the

727
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: loss of Trey White hurts? Sure, but I think the

728
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: Bills are going to win this game. I still trust them.

729
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: But I do need the hook. You can get a

730
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 2: plus three and a half out there for minus one fifteen,

731
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: which is fine, So give me the Bills. Let's circle

732
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: the wagons.

733
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 3: Yeah. I haven't thatt three, so I can't fault you

734
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 3: for taking it with the hook. The one thing that

735
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 3: worries me, I do think now Tampa Bay's run defense

736
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 3: doesn't matter as much against the Bills. At least it

737
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 3: shouldn't because the Bills shouldn't want to run here. I

738
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: think both offensives will have success. My worry is Tampa

739
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 3: Bay at home has been even better offensively. That's when

740
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 3: they've been at their best. And I really am worried

741
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: about the loss of Trade White. Because not just his skills, but.

742
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 2: Look at the Bills.

743
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 3: Starting corners with is it Johnson Wallace and was it

744
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 3: Dane Jackson. None of those guys weighs more than one

745
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,959
Speaker 3: hundred and ninety two pounds. Now that's gonna be tough

746
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 3: going against Mike Evans. Chris Godwin is one of the

747
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: bigger slots, and now Brashad Perriman is starting outside. He's

748
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 3: a big guy as well. But more importantly, as you

749
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 3: kind of alluded to, without Trey White, you're gonna have

750
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 3: to give your corners help on Evans, especially on Godwin,

751
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 3: who just went straight nuclear last week. But what does

752
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 3: that do? That takes away from the Bill's tight end

753
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 3: defense because the Bills, remember they're they're every year. You

754
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: can pretty much bank on them being top five against

755
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 3: the tight end, like they are excellent against the tight

756
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 3: end because of their two safeties. But those guy have

757
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 3: to give help. Now, what are you doing with Rob Grinkowski,

758
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: because that normally would be an advantage for the Bills,

759
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 3: you know, one of the better tight end defens's best

760
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 3: tight end defenses in the league. So I just worry

761
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 3: that they're going to be able to get exploited on defense,

762
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 3: so it really is going to be a shootout. So yeah,

763
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 3: with the hook, I don't hate it, but it's I

764
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 3: worry about their margin forever. Like if if they don't

765
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: convert like one of their red zone trips or something

766
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 3: like that, it might be rough out there because the Bucks.

767
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 3: I think the Bucks are going to be able to

768
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 3: throw on this team just because of the size advantage

769
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: They're going to have at pretty much every receiving position.

770
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's kind of where I'm at with this one.

771
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 3: For my third and the fifth overall pick of the week,

772
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 3: fourteen Sunday six pack, I am holding my nose and

773
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: betting against the Green Bay Packers with the Chicago Bears

774
00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 3: plus twelve and a half in Lambeau always going to

775
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 3: be on this. I mean, I think something like eighty

776
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 3: one percent of the bets, ninety seven percent of the

777
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 3: money is on the Packers.

778
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 2: Year is starting a quarterback, That's all I need to know.

779
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,879
Speaker 3: Justin Field, Justin Fields. Justin Fields has been confirmed. Yep,

780
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 3: he's starting. As we record this on Wednesday. The reports

781
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 3: are that Justice Fields will start this Sunday night game.

782
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 3: I will have a write up on this, but listen,

783
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 3: it's ugly. This is not for everybody, but this is

784
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: what we do here. I looked up and down a

785
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 3: slate and this is the third best pick that we

786
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 3: picked here. And green Bay has played twelve games this year.

787
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 3: They've been great, but they have two losses against the spread.

788
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 3: They're ten and two against the spread. They played twelve

789
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 3: games this year through only three of them have ended

790
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 3: with green Bay winning by thirteen or more points three

791
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 3: of them. Okay, Chicago has played twelve games this year,

792
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 3: there's four and eight. We know how bad they've been.

793
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 3: Only three times all year have they lost by thirteen

794
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 3: or more points. So this is just too many points.

795
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: Especially the total for this game is around forty three

796
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 3: and a half. Late season divisional game. We know those

797
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 3: tend to be tight. You're in Lambeau, you know, cold

798
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 3: weather game. Road underdogs since two thousand and three getting

799
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 3: eleven or more with a total of forty six or

800
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 3: less are one thirty one, ninety two and one fifty

801
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 3: nine percent against the spread. When you look at only

802
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 3: divisional games, it jumps to fifty four and thirty one,

803
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 3: sixty four percent against the spread. Rogers still taking some

804
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 3: practice time off, he did not practice Wednesday. With the

805
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 3: toe injury, DeVante Adams didn't practice. I mean, this is

806
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 3: going to be a game where Green Bay wants to

807
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 3: handle its business, hold, serve at home, get out of

808
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 3: here with a win. But I don't think you're gonna

809
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 3: get Green Bay's best stuff. I don't think that this

810
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 3: team should be favored by twelve and a half when

811
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 3: they've won three games per year by thirteen or more,

812
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 3: and same thing with Chicago. And I think Justin Fields Listen,

813
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: it's been ugly earlier on, but I think he's kind

814
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 3: of turned a corner in terms of understanding when to scramble.

815
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 3: He rarely scrambled in his first few starts, but in

816
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 3: the last few he scrambled a lot more. If they're

817
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: going to play him, that means he's good to go.

818
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 3: I don't think they would risk any type of injury here,

819
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 3: so I'm banking on him being able to run around

820
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 3: a little bit. I know Green Bay looks like they

821
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 3: might even get Diyar Alexander back, although without Alan Robinson,

822
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 3: I don't think it's as big of a deal. I mean,

823
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 3: you know, I don't think Allan Robinson is going to

824
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 3: play anyway, but I just think the Bears are going

825
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: to be able to run it with Montgomery, keep it

826
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,439
Speaker 3: within you know, maybe maybe they lose by eleven again,

827
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 3: kind of like they did to the Cardinals. But that's

828
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 3: that kind of shows you. You know, you had this

829
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 3: Cardinals game. Cardinals one of the if not the best

830
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: team in the NFL. Right now, it ends on eleven.

831
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: Maybe you get a back door with Fields here. You know,

832
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 3: I trust him a little more than Dalton. So just

833
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 3: too many points here when both of these teams have

834
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 3: only done this in twenty five percent of their game.

835
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 3: So give me the Bears plus twelve and a half

836
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 3: at the Packers.

837
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that this. Yeah, this line is too high,

838
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: So I agree with you, and I'm not surprised that

839
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 2: the Packers off by how much they've been covering. And yeah,

840
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: how bad the Bears been that it is too high.

841
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: You're paying attacks to the Packers are So I probably

842
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 2: will join you on the Bears. It's in a dead

843
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 2: zone right now. Maybe I'm want to see if we

844
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 2: can maybe get to thirteen, So I would recommend that. Well,

845
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: I know it's your play, but it's at twelve and

846
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 2: a half right now. Go on to twelve. If it

847
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 2: goes to eleven and a half, that's not a big deal.

848
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 2: Games rarely end on twelve. But there's a lot more

849
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: value if it goes up, and you know, as we

850
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 2: get closer to Sunday night. But I agree, I think

851
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: this line is too high. When these two teams played,

852
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 2: and remember it's a divisional game, so own field doesn't

853
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: mean as much. It was more familiarity, there's it's less travel,

854
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 2: and you know, when these two teams met early in

855
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 2: the year when Justin Field started, David Montgomery was out

856
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 2: for that game, the line was I think it opened

857
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 2: a Packers minus four and then it closed minus five.

858
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 2: And now you're out the twelve and a half. You know,

859
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: the Packers have been good, but they've been they were

860
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: at that time they were four and one and the

861
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,720
Speaker 2: Bears were two and three, so you made some adjustments.

862
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: So I think that this line should be probably around ten.

863
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 2: So I think I do agree that the values with

864
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 2: the Bears. And in that game the Packers won twenty

865
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: four to fourteen. There were some questionable calls made against

866
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 2: the Bears. There was a third, a fourth and four

867
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,959
Speaker 2: free play, third and four free play, but they didn't

868
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 2: call the off sides clear off sides, and Field just

869
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 2: thought it was a free play. By the way, that

870
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 2: happened to Bills and they didn't call it on the Patriots.

871
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 2: Field just threw it up as he should because it's

872
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 2: a free play, and it was picked in the end zone.

873
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 2: But in that game, the Packers ended up scoring late

874
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown late, and then Aaron Rodgers, you know, talk shit,

875
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 2: said I own you, so don't don't sleep on that

876
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 2: the locker. And these are still professionals for the Bears, right,

877
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: who were we own you? We own you. I think

878
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: that they'll be fired up for this game. Packers kind

879
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 2: of sitting nice and fat and happy, and they've covered

880
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 2: so much that they're definitely over valued here. But in

881
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 2: that game with Fields and Robinson not playing, the Bears

882
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 2: were in it. Yeah, you know it was. The artist

883
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 2: was three twenty three to two seventy seven. So I

884
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: think that they can move the ball on the ground.

885
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: The only turnover in the game was that pick that

886
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 2: was on the free play, So yeah, I agree with you.

887
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 2: All right. For my third pick of the Sunday six

888
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 2: pack and the sixth overall, I'm going with the Carolina

889
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: Panthers minus two and a half at bet MGM at

890
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: home against the Atlanta Falcons. This game is awful. I

891
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: can't believe I'm taking the Panthers. Yeah, after what I

892
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: saw from Cam Newton against the Dolphins Panthers coming off,

893
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 2: but bye, here, this is as crazy as it sounds.

894
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: This is a true elimination game. I can't believe the

895
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 2: Falcons are like even in that discussion, but with an

896
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 2: extra wild card right now, they are what one game

897
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: out of the final wildcard spot. That's insane. So the

898
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 2: loser this game goes to five and eight, good night,

899
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: You're done. Winner goes to six and seven. And as

900
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 2: a shot, you know the Panthers. Cam Newton looked terrific,

901
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 2: and there's no two ways about it. He couldn't throw

902
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 2: the ball. But I think against this Falcon, I just

903
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 2: think this Falcon seems terrible. I make this line four.

904
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 2: This Falcons team again, still from a DBI perspective, they're

905
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 2: dead last in the NFL, and even if you look

906
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 2: at wayne to DBI, which waits recent results, they're still

907
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: bottom five. I mean, they've all been awful all year.

908
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: Here are their wins, right, they got how they have

909
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 2: five wins. They either estimated wins are like two and

910
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: a half. Let's see how they beat They beat the

911
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: Giants by three when all the entire Giants team got

912
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 2: hurt in the second half. You remember that game, like

913
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 2: all the position players went down. They beat Zack Wilson

914
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 2: in London. Earlier in the year, they beat Trevor Simeon

915
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: by three. All these were by one possession. By the way.

916
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 2: They beat the Dolphins early in the year when they

917
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 2: were a mess by two in a game the Dolphins

918
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 2: should have won, I think. And then they beat the

919
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 2: Jags by one possession last week. Those are their wins. Jags,

920
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 2: Dolphins is a mess. Trevor Simeon, Zach Wilson in London,

921
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 2: and the Giants when their whole team got hurt, all

922
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 2: by one possession. I mean, this is a really bad team.

923
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: There's still no Calvin Ridley. Panthers are coming off of

924
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: a bye, fired Joe Brady, a little bit of an unknown,

925
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 2: some surprise factor. What's the ofphense gonna look like? But

926
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 2: you know, I don't trust Cam Newton to throw much,

927
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 2: didn't last year, don't this year. But at least he's

928
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: not gonna be under any pressure. Falcons are dead last

929
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: the NFL pressure they get none, so at least Newton

930
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 2: won't have any pressure. And I think the Panthers are

931
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: gonna come out and they're gonna lean on their run

932
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 2: game here, and you can run on the Falconsas don't

933
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 2: give a lot of explosive runs, but you can move

934
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 2: the ball methodically. Against Atlanta they're thirty second, not only

935
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 2: a thirty second justin secard, they're thirty second in power

936
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 2: success rate. You can just get those three to four

937
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: yards Cam Newton. I think running the ball will be

938
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 2: a huge factor against any running quarterback who wasn't dealing

939
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 2: with an injury this year. Running quarterbacks against the Falcons

940
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:40,879
Speaker 2: like hurts Daniel Jones to Trevor Lawrence. Let's start Sam

941
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: Darnold in here for the last game. He ran eight

942
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 2: times for sixty six yards against the Panthers against the Falcons. Yeah,

943
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: the opposing quarterbacks in those games have got seven point

944
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 2: three yards per carry. So I think Cam Newton can

945
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,800
Speaker 2: have some success running the ball. This Falcons team was

946
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 2: just terrible in all phases, and the Fantas basically had

947
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 2: two weeks to prepare off of an awful defensive effort.

948
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 2: I think their defense at home here must win proudably

949
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 2: on the side. Their defense is going to play up here,

950
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 2: and last time the Matt Ryan faces defense, it was

951
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 2: a disaster. He did absolutely nothing. I think they threw

952
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 2: for one hundred and forty yards. They basically have to

953
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 2: come into this game and say, all right, let's cover

954
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts and let's look at the film and find

955
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 2: out how we're taking away quadroll Patterson. That's it. The

956
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 2: Falcons can't run it at all. Panthers can just be

957
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: balls to the wall. I'm going after Matt Ryan here,

958
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 2: an immobile status Matt Ryan, and we have to cover

959
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 2: two guys. That's it. I think this is an easy

960
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 2: defensive assignment for the Panthers. I think getting him under

961
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 2: a field goal there's value here. After what we saw

962
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 2: from Cam Newton two weeks ago, I think this Falcons

963
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: team is a joke, a bottom five team. They have

964
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 2: five joke wins. So I'll take the Panthers coming off

965
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 2: of buy at home with the only competent unit in

966
00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 2: this game above average companient is the Panthers defense. December

967
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 2: game at home and division. I think that'll ultimately be

968
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 2: the difference.

969
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 3: And you got Matt Ryan outdoors, which he was bad indoors,

970
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 3: twenty of twenty seven for one hundred and forty six

971
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 3: with a touchdown and two picks indoors. He's always worse outdoors,

972
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: so I agree. I'll have more in this game when

973
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 3: we talk about the total.

974
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 2: And yeah, by the way, Gilmore didn't play in that game.

975
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 2: They've added more since.

976
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 3: That's gonna wrap it up for the week fourteen Sunday

977
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 3: six pack. As a recap, Stucky going with Cleveland minus

978
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 3: two and a half against Baltimore, Buffalo plus three and

979
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 3: a half at Tampa, and the Panthers minus two and

980
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 3: a half hosting the Falcons. I'm going with the forty

981
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 3: nine Ers minus a half point against the Bengals, Baltimore

982
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 3: plus two and a half going head to head with

983
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 3: Stucky year at Cleveland, and then the Bears plus twelve

984
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 3: and a half at Green Bay. That is going to

985
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,480
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986
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,000
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988
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990
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991
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994
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996
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999
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 3: one zero cheers, and now it's time for our week

1000
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 3: fourteen coaches pep Talk.

1001
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get a.

1002
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 3: Half feet again to nine. This week's pep talk come

1003
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: to us from beloved actor Charlie Day, and we're dedicating

1004
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 3: it to Houston Texans head coach David Cully. Guys, you know, look,

1005
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 3: you try to be a nice guy right and treat

1006
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,879
Speaker 3: everyone with respect, but you don't get it. You don't

1007
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 3: get it back in return. You know why, because nice

1008
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 3: guys they finished last and you're gonna say, hey, I'm

1009
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 3: a nice guy, I'm doing okay, and the world is

1010
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 3: gonna on sip his pants, pull them down.

1011
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: And take a giant all over you.

1012
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: Guys. I just can't wait, Guys, I cannot win. I

1013
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 3: don't know, stuck. Because you've ever seen Kelly on the sidelines,

1014
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 3: I wouldn't imagine to be watching a lot of Texans games,

1015
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 3: But I don't know. This dude just looks like a

1016
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 3: nice guy, you know, just just a nice guy. Closed,

1017
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 3: probably a size too big. I think you should size down.

1018
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 3: And we're not doing that whole baggy thing. I think

1019
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 3: kind of went out with the nineties. So got shut

1020
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 3: out last week to scored three points in two games

1021
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 3: against the Colts. Now they played a Seahawks who somehow

1022
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 3: are probably still alive as well. So yeah, dedicating this

1023
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 3: on a David cully man, go out there and stop

1024
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 3: being so nice. All right, now, it's time for our

1025
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 3: favorite total of the week. Start us off with the total.

1026
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go. You just mentioned David Colly. This

1027
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 2: one is ugly, but I'm gonna go with the Texans

1028
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,399
Speaker 2: Seahawks over forty.

1029
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 3: Two at the Wait gm, wait, wait, wait, so you

1030
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 3: essentially mean the Seahawks over forty two.

1031
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 2: I think I think that the Seahawks can get to

1032
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 2: thirty one. And here's the competent offenses that the Texans

1033
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: have faced this year. The Browns got to thirty one,

1034
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 2: the Bills got to forty, The Patriots got the twenty five.

1035
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 2: That's the best they've done. The Colts got to thirty one,

1036
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 2: the Cardinals got to thirty one, the Rams got to

1037
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: thirty eight, and then the Colts got to thirty one again.

1038
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 2: That's it. Those are the competent offenses that they faced.

1039
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 2: They beat the Titans twenty two to thirt team the

1040
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 2: entire Titans offense was out. I don't count that game.

1041
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 2: This totals come way down because Davis Mills is going

1042
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 2: to start for the Texans. Before I was rushing to

1043
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 2: bet the Texans and Tyroto Tyredere has been awful whenever

1044
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: the number is earlier. I don't know what is going

1045
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:12,479
Speaker 2: on with him or what, but he's been the worst

1046
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 2: quarterback in the NFL by any metric over the past FIVEUS.

1047
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 2: This week's not against a ton of help, but I

1048
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 2: don't think it's a big drop off from what we've

1049
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 2: seen the tyle Tel Davis Mills didn't play since late October.

1050
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: Actually got in the game last week, wasn't effective, but

1051
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,880
Speaker 2: actually got some live game reps. I think that this

1052
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,839
Speaker 2: number one the Seahawks offense. I would look my total

1053
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 2: last week was the Seahawks forty nine ers over the

1054
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 2: Seahawks offense I think is going to put up points

1055
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: the rest of the year. This is a team. I

1056
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 2: think Russell Wilson looked a little healthy last week. Now

1057
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 2: he's at that eight week mark. That's when they said

1058
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 2: he's going to be healthy originally, and he came back

1059
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,240
Speaker 2: way too soon, I think. But this is the Seahawks

1060
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 2: offense that if you look at their early down EPA,

1061
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 2: their early down success rate, it is very good. And

1062
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 2: then on third and fourth downs they've been there thirty

1063
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 2: first in the league. Only in the lines have been

1064
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 2: worse than offense. So there was regression coming for this offense.

1065
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson healthier. Hey also, Pete Carroll, I guess just said,

1066
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 2: fuck it, nothing to lose, let's start doing crazy shit.

1067
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: Last week, right, fake punt went forward another fourth down.

1068
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:15,879
Speaker 2: He went for a fourth and one at the five,

1069
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 2: up seven when does he ever do that? And by

1070
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 2: the way, that game the Seahawks, they should have scored

1071
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: about fourteen more points because of Gerald Evertt drops at

1072
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 2: the one that got picked. So I think this offense

1073
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 2: is going to start to roll, and it's gonna start

1074
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 2: They're gonna start to be just more aggressive and like

1075
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 2: an effort, we have nothing to lose mentality. On the

1076
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 2: other side, I think the Seahawks defense is terrible and

1077
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: they have been running extremely well like they I mean,

1078
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 2: you look their fourth in red zone D fifth and

1079
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 2: scoring D but they're twenty ninth in EPA per play

1080
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 2: and thirty first and success rate in early downs. So

1081
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: this team is just getting very lucky on third and

1082
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,399
Speaker 2: four towns, very lucky in the red zone. They're getting

1083
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: opportune turnovers, and the Seahawks offense is different. So this

1084
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 2: is one of the reasons I had over in the

1085
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 2: Seahawks forty nine ers game last week. And by the way,

1086
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 2: seeks your thirty first in EPA per play and thirty

1087
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 2: first and success right on late downs, that's worse than

1088
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: the Texans offense, by the way, So I think the

1089
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,760
Speaker 2: Seahawks can get to thirty one here as any competent offense,

1090
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 2: except the Patriots have done. Can the Texans get to thirteen?

1091
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 2: I think so. I think the Seahawks defense has a

1092
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 2: lot of regression coming with Mills playing. Also, there's more

1093
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: risk for turnovers, and you know, I think they get

1094
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 2: to thirteen. They've gotten to thirteen in half of their games.

1095
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 2: It says for thirty seven, twenty one, you know, twenty

1096
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 2: two against the Pats at home, twenty two against the

1097
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 2: Rams at home. So I think there's also a chance

1098
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 2: where the Seahawks blow this open and then you're getting

1099
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 2: late some late garbage points too, which we've seen in

1100
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 2: a couple of games. So yeah, I think that this

1101
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:54,919
Speaker 2: line has come down way too much for a game

1102
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 2: indoors in December for a Seahawks offense, and I think

1103
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: has some regression coming. Defense that has some negative aggression coming.

1104
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 2: I think Mills will look a little better this week.

1105
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 2: They can put two touchdowns on the board, whether it's

1106
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 2: late in a blowout or one early one late. I

1107
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 2: think that there's a good chance this this goes to

1108
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,760
Speaker 2: you know, hits forty four or forty five points with ease.

1109
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:18,439
Speaker 2: I think forty two is way too low.

1110
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 3: Yak's also without Jamal Adams. Now he's been placed on IRS,

1111
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:24,479
Speaker 3: so he's out, he's done for the year. It looks

1112
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 3: like not good for their defense. I almost wonder though,

1113
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 3: I mean, you kind of hit it. Seahawks probably gonna

1114
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 3: get to thirty one. Texans have struggled to get past thirteen.

1115
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 3: Do you also like the Seahawks here is just more

1116
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 3: of just like a tease piece.

1117
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind teasing the Seahawks. I make the

1118
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 2: line right on, but if I had to pick a side,

1119
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 2: I do think that there's enormous like I could see

1120
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 2: the Seahawks winning this game, like you know, being up

1121
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:54,760
Speaker 2: thirty one seventeen late and then giving up a backdoor

1122
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 2: touchdown or something. I do think there's a lot of

1123
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,439
Speaker 2: regression covering for the Seahawks defense. They've just been really

1124
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 2: lucky in the red zone and the scoring department, and

1125
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 2: you're gonna see I think that start to turn around

1126
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 2: towards the end of the year, while the offense starts

1127
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 2: to translate yards in early down success into points and

1128
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 2: laid down success. So I personally make the line. Let

1129
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 2: me check, it's seven point nine, so I'm not rushing

1130
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 2: to late seven and a half on the road. But

1131
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:22,759
Speaker 2: if you know, if I had a bet, and I

1132
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 2: think the Seals probably cover more times than not, but

1133
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: I prefer the over all.

1134
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:29,479
Speaker 3: Right, For my favorite total of the week, I'm going

1135
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: Panthers Falcons under forty two and a half. I don't

1136
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 3: even have to say much because you kind of wait

1137
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,879
Speaker 3: out already how this game is going to turn out.

1138
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 3: But I'll just kind of tell you what's going on

1139
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 3: in Carolina. As you alluded to, they fired their offensive

1140
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 3: coordinator over the bye week, Joe Brady. Why do they

1141
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:48,760
Speaker 3: do that? Philosophical differences. Matt Ruhle wants to run quote

1142
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 3: thirty three to thirty nine times per game. That is

1143
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 3: perfect for an under because the reason the Falcons would

1144
00:55:56,760 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 3: give up overs is because they're dead lasting pressure rate. Well,

1145
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter how much pressure they're getting if Carolina

1146
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 3: doesn't want to throw the ball, and half the time

1147
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 3: they throw the ball, it's really just like Cam Newton's

1148
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:10,959
Speaker 3: probably just gonna scramble out of there anyway. So that's

1149
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 3: great on one side of it. Then on the other

1150
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 3: side of it, you have Carolina that is top two

1151
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 3: in pressure rate on defense, so they're gonna get all

1152
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 3: of the pressure on Atlanta, who has no receivers and

1153
00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:28,840
Speaker 3: I'm including Kyle Pitts in this, has no receivers that

1154
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 3: are going to be able to consistently uncover from this

1155
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 3: Carolina secondary that just can lock up. They can play

1156
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 3: man and blitz if they want, They could sit back,

1157
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:40,799
Speaker 3: but either way they're gonna lock up. So this first

1158
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 3: matchup with indoors in in Atlanta, Atlanta had the home

1159
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 3: field advantage. Matt Ryan completes twenty of twenty seven passes.

1160
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 3: That sounds good, right, one hundred and forty six yards,

1161
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,240
Speaker 3: one touchdown, two interceptions. You also get sacked three times.

1162
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 3: Kyle Pitts six targets, two catches, thirteen yards. So Tajay

1163
00:56:57,320 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 3: Sharp was a leading receiver, Wasn't Kyle Pitts. Wasn't even

1164
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 3: Cordero Paters. Russell Gage, you might say, okay, Falcons could

1165
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 3: get some things going with Russell Gage. Right last week

1166
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 3: eleven catches one hundred and thirty yards on twelve targets,

1167
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 3: brilliant against Tampa Bay. He kept them in that game

1168
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 3: for a little while. First match up against Carolina, Russell

1169
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 3: Gage started the game gooseg no targets, no catches, I

1170
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 3: don't see how Atlanta has gets offense in this game.

1171
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 3: Now they're one of the worst defenses. But again that's

1172
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 3: mitigated by the fact that Carolina wants to run thirty

1173
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 3: five times or more in this game. And like you said,

1174
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 3: stut Lanta is not necessarily giving up the huge explosive plays.

1175
00:57:37,040 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 3: It's just gonna be methodical, four or five yard runs

1176
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 3: up and down the field. Clock's gonna run. Carolina's not

1177
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 3: gonna do nothing crazy. They won the first matchup nineteen thirteen,

1178
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 3: you know, so they're not gonna They're not gonna come

1179
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 3: out and feel like they have to be aggressive here,

1180
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 3: especially after cam Newton goes five to twenty one. Maybe

1181
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 3: you see a trick play or some wrinkle for a

1182
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 3: touchdown with the new offensive coordinator, but given that the

1183
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 3: old one of his fire for not running enough, even

1184
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 3: without Christian McCaffrey, I think we know what type of

1185
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 3: game we're gonna get here. And on top of that

1186
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 3: second matchup late in the year, divisional game, divisional unders

1187
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,040
Speaker 3: and one PM, and I think the reason why they

1188
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 3: hit the highest at one PM is because public anxious

1189
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 3: to get action. Public tends to get overs, but divisional

1190
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 3: unders one pm from week ten on excluding week seventeen

1191
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 3: two twenty seven eight sixty two percent the underhits and

1192
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 3: divisional unders from week ten on excluding the last week

1193
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 3: of the year.

1194
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 2: So that that also speaks the divisional divisional rematches the

1195
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 2: second time.

1196
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, no, no, absolutely, absolutely, But it peaks at

1197
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 3: one pm, which I just think is interesting. But yeah, no,

1198
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 3: even if you just filter out everything, you're still in

1199
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 3: the high high fifties regardless of the time whatever. But

1200
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 3: specifically outdoors divisional underdivisional games outdoors in the one pm

1201
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 3: window one fifty nine, ninety two and six since two

1202
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 3: thousand three. According to our actual ABS data, sixty three percent.

1203
00:58:59,080 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 3: Panthers are going to be the physical, run heavy team

1204
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 3: against the Falcons team on the road that's not gonna

1205
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,439
Speaker 3: be able to get offense. Panthers might not need more

1206
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 3: than the nineteen they had last game to win this one,

1207
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 3: and they're gonna be run heavy. So give me the

1208
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: Panthers Falcons under forty two and a half. I make

1209
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 3: this forty one. I might have to adjust it even

1210
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 3: even lower. That's gonna wrap it for our favorite totals.

1211
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 3: Stuck is going with Seattle Houston over forty two. I'm

1212
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 3: going with Atlantic Carolina under forty two and a half.

1213
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 3: Now it is time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1214
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers, y'all, don't change, don't tease

1215
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 1: me to please.

1216
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 3: For those not familiar, the standard is six points to

1217
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 3: add to two or more bets, So six point teaser,

1218
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 3: that's what we do here on the pod Stuck. He

1219
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 3: has a lot of great content out about which key

1220
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 3: numbers to tease through and what he's kind of looking

1221
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 3: for in order to get and sustained edge on the books.

1222
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 3: With these things, you can google Stucky Teasers or search

1223
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 3: Action network dot com for that content. Stuck. Both of

1224
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 3: our teasers hit last week. Where you're going with your

1225
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 3: teaser for Week fourteen.

1226
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tease the Rams up over a touchdown Alba

1227
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 2: right up for that game on Monday Night. I'm gonna

1228
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 2: throw them in with the Broncos, tease them their seven

1229
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite, get them down to one

1230
01:00:21,800 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 2: and a half. Ideal teaser piece MUCKs win at home

1231
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:30,000
Speaker 2: against the Lions, who might still be celebrating after their

1232
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 2: first win.

1233
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm teasing Denver as well, seven and a half

1234
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 3: down to one and a half essentially means you just

1235
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 3: have to win the game by a field goal. You

1236
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 3: could even miss an extra point somewhere in there. But

1237
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 3: you look at Denver, there's seventeenth and waited DVOA overall.

1238
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 3: Detroit's thirtieth, so not in the seller, but there's still

1239
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 3: one of the three worst teams in the league. And

1240
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 3: now you're just betting on Denver to win a game

1241
01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:54,720
Speaker 3: after Detroit, you know, obvious letdown spot going two mile

1242
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 3: high after they you know, beat a divisional opponent indoors.

1243
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 3: Now they have to go two mile high, still riding

1244
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 3: high off that victory. I mean, just a really bad

1245
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 3: letdownd spot here for Detroit, you know, getting a monkey

1246
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 3: off their back, whereas Denver is going to be hungry.

1247
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 3: I mean, they got to feel like they went one

1248
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 3: get away. They held the Chiefs to essentially sixteen points

1249
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 3: of offense, and then you know they get the unlucky

1250
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:19,800
Speaker 3: interception that Sorenson takes Sorenson off all people takes back

1251
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 3: for a touchdown. So yeah, I think you're gonna get

1252
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 3: Denver's best effort. Detroit They're gonna compete.

1253
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:26,479
Speaker 2: They do every week.

1254
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 3: But that's why I like teasing them down here, you

1255
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 3: never want to take that hook seven and a half.

1256
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 3: It's a little dicey in this kind of spot. And

1257
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 3: then for my second leg, I will go with Seattle

1258
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:40,800
Speaker 3: tease them down from seven and a half to one

1259
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 3: and a half. As well, this line is moving, so

1260
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 3: if you want to tail the teaser, probably want to

1261
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 3: get to Seattle sooner than later. But looking at Houston,

1262
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 3: as you kind of mentioned, I just don't know how

1263
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 3: they're going to stop Seattle from getting to twenty eight

1264
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 3: thirty one points. We've only seen Davis Mills equipse that

1265
01:01:58,760 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 3: like thirteen point mark. I think it was one in

1266
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 3: one or two games. So I think Seattle teasing them

1267
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 3: down is going to be safe. Usually, you know, Seattle

1268
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 3: does play a lot of close games. Maybe they don't

1269
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 3: against Houston, but I think it's a very kind of

1270
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 3: pretty safe play teasing getting both two of the worst

1271
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 3: teams in the NFL to have a combined three wins,

1272
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 3: and we're in Week fourteen and you're getting their opponents

1273
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 3: at one and a half minus one and a half East.

1274
01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 3: So love this Seattle Denver teaser. Already put it in

1275
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 3: the app. It's that's what I'm going with this week,

1276
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 3: all right, So that's gonna do it for our favorite teasers.

1277
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 3: As a recap, Stuck teasing Denver from seven and a

1278
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 3: half to one and a half against Detroit and the

1279
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 3: Rams from two and a half to eight and a

1280
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:45,240
Speaker 3: half at Arizona. I'm teasing Denver as well from seven

1281
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 3: and a half to one and a half against the Lions,

1282
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 3: and Seattle from seven and a half to one and

1283
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 3: a half at Houston. Now it's time for our money

1284
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 3: line underdog parlay.

1285
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 1: Turning good weekend in two great weekends, it's time for

1286
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:05,000
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1287
01:03:06,200 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 3: So you had the Chargers for your money line dog

1288
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 3: last week, Stuck, I had him in the six pack

1289
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: that cashed, and then we cashed our money line under

1290
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 3: dog parlay because of the Ravens predictable, analytic driven two

1291
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 3: point conversion that didn't come through. So back on the

1292
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 3: back off the Schneid hit another money line dog parlay.

1293
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 3: I think it was that sixth or seventh win of

1294
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 3: the year. We're doing pretty good on these. So we're

1295
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 3: you going to sepen now, yeah, definitely in the green.

1296
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Washington football team. I was

1297
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 3: thinking about taking them plus four. I think it's a

1298
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:38,080
Speaker 3: tab too hot.

1299
01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 2: I mean, sweat going on the COVID list Thomas Gong

1300
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 2: and I are is an ideal. But this Washington team,

1301
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:47,480
Speaker 2: they won four in a row. They there were defenses

1302
01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 2: playing despite all the injuries up front. Their defense is

1303
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 2: playing a lot better after the buye just fewer blown

1304
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:56,240
Speaker 2: coverages on the back end. They seemed to figure out

1305
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 2: some things during that bye week. And Heinike, I mean,

1306
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 2: what can you say since Week seven, he's top five

1307
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 2: at EPA plus completion percentage over expectation composite. He's like

1308
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:10,920
Speaker 2: a high risk quarterback. He's gonna make some throws that

1309
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:14,439
Speaker 2: make you go at times and then sometimes they'll work out.

1310
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 2: So I think that that's good for a money line

1311
01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 2: underdog here in a must win home division game, you know,

1312
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 2: in a slow track, which I think favors Washington here

1313
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 2: to kind of slow down Dallas. I think there's still

1314
01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 2: some regression coming for this Dallas defense on third downs

1315
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 2: or holding teams are thirty one percent. You know, with turnovers.

1316
01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 2: Their defensive success has been tied a lot to turnovers

1317
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 2: and interceptions that they've been able to force. So yeah,

1318
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 2: I think that Washington give me a little bit of

1319
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 2: Heinike magic. They could be in this game divisional game

1320
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 2: outdoors in December for their season. Team just riding high

1321
01:04:56,400 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 2: with some magic, winning by two the past two weeks.

1322
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:04,720
Speaker 2: It'll come to an end soon, but let's let's give

1323
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 2: Washington a try here and hope for some Heinekee magic.

1324
01:05:09,680 --> 01:05:12,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, dak tends to do really well against

1325
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 3: the NFC East. I don't know if that's predictive, but

1326
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 3: I got Freeman pointed that out. But this kind of

1327
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 3: caught me too. I was like, I don't know if

1328
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:20,840
Speaker 3: Dalla should be getting more than a field goal here

1329
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:24,320
Speaker 3: on the road. Washington's been playing well, so I don't

1330
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 3: hate this at all.

1331
01:05:26,000 --> 01:05:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Dallas is getting healthier too, which is like,

1332
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:30,680
Speaker 2: you know, they're gonna be getting Laurence and the guy

1333
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 2: Lawrence back. It looks like Gregor's gonna come back. Their

1334
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:36,680
Speaker 2: defensive tackle Gallboard's coming back. Their offensive line finally is

1335
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:40,840
Speaker 2: fully intact. But Pollard didn't practice today, so maybe they

1336
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 2: come out and sometimes the Dallas is dumb, made his hand.

1337
01:05:43,080 --> 01:05:46,040
Speaker 2: It's a zeke a lot. So yeah, it is Dallas

1338
01:05:46,040 --> 01:05:50,080
Speaker 2: getting healthier. Washington has more injury concerns, but home divisional

1339
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 2: dog high variance Heinikey. Let's hope the Washington magic continues.

1340
01:05:55,200 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 3: Well. My money line underdog pick for Week fourteen, I

1341
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 3: am going with the New York Football Jets Gang Green

1342
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 3: plus twe ninety at home against the New Orleans Saints.

1343
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:12,120
Speaker 3: Guess which team has more wins over the last six weeks,

1344
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 3: the Jets of the Saints. It's the Jets. They have two,

1345
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 3: Saints have one. Guess which team has more wins in

1346
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 3: the last five games. Jets are the Saints. It's the Jets.

1347
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 3: They have won, the Saints have none. The Saints team

1348
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 3: is it looks just dead in the water. Like I

1349
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if this game gives them a lot

1350
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:36,280
Speaker 3: more trouble than we think. You got Taysom Hill dealing

1351
01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:39,040
Speaker 3: with an injury, but yeah, he's gonna get the start.

1352
01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 3: He's liable to turn the ball over. If we saw

1353
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:46,280
Speaker 3: the four picks. Deontay Harris, who has been the Saints'

1354
01:06:46,280 --> 01:06:48,240
Speaker 3: best receiver, and I'm not joking when I say that.

1355
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 3: You look at yards per route run versus man versus

1356
01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:53,280
Speaker 3: his own he only plays about fifty percent of the

1357
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:56,080
Speaker 3: snatch but he's been their best receiver on a yards

1358
01:06:56,080 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 3: per route basis. He's suspended ram checks still not practice,

1359
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 3: saying Armstead did have a limited practice, but Zach Wilson's

1360
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 3: looking a little better as of late. Elijah Moore is

1361
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:08,440
Speaker 3: really coming into his own. That should be a fun

1362
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 3: matchup between him and Latimore. But this Saints team, they

1363
01:07:13,040 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 3: just can't buy a win right now. Like, you know,

1364
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 3: their defense is solid. I don't think their run defensive

1365
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 3: will Matt you know, their excellent run DEFENSI will matter

1366
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: a lot against this Jets team. It's not like the

1367
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 3: Jets are going to run the ball on you with

1368
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 3: a high level of success. So I just think it

1369
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:30,760
Speaker 3: comes down to weird fluky things and the Saints, you know,

1370
01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:33,800
Speaker 3: a team that usually plays indoors, but yet has lost

1371
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:35,760
Speaker 3: three of its last five at home, including I lost

1372
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 3: to the Falcons at home. If you can lose to

1373
01:07:37,600 --> 01:07:39,960
Speaker 3: the Falcons at home, you can lose to the Jets

1374
01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:42,200
Speaker 3: on the road. But the Saints have lost three the

1375
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:45,760
Speaker 3: last five at home. You know, on the road. They

1376
01:07:46,440 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 3: have not won a game since beating the Seahawks with

1377
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 3: Gino Smith, and they did that by a slim margin

1378
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,600
Speaker 3: of thirteen to ten. So I just think this is

1379
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:58,240
Speaker 3: going to be a struggle for the Saints. You know,

1380
01:07:58,280 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 3: maybe they get a player or two back that's been injured,

1381
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:01,880
Speaker 3: but I don't think this is going to be an

1382
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 3: easy game. Wait in the year for a Jets team

1383
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 3: that there's season's already been over, so they're just kind

1384
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 3: of playing, you know, nice and loose, getting some good

1385
01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 3: special teams plays here. I just think this could be

1386
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:12,760
Speaker 3: one of them. You look up on red zone and

1387
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 3: it's like, oh, we're in the fourth quarter and the

1388
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:16,880
Speaker 3: Jets are winning thirteen to seven, and you're like, what,

1389
01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:20,680
Speaker 3: So give me the Jets plus one ninety hosting the

1390
01:08:20,720 --> 01:08:21,280
Speaker 3: Saints here.

1391
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:23,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't hate Logemore deal with the quad, so

1392
01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:27,680
Speaker 2: hopefully he does play, But yeah, I couldn't see the

1393
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 2: Jets win in this game. The Saints might be done

1394
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 2: all right.

1395
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 3: So you'd take Washington plus one sixty against Dallas and

1396
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 3: the Jets plus one ninety against the Saints, and you

1397
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:41,760
Speaker 3: have a payout of six point five x one hundred dollars.

1398
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:45,760
Speaker 3: Bet returned seven hundred and fifty four hours, according to

1399
01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:48,120
Speaker 3: the Action Network parlay calculator, which you can find at

1400
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 3: Action Network dot Com or in the free award winning

1401
01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 3: Action Network app. So our money line Underdog parlay for

1402
01:08:54,520 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 3: this week Washington plus one sixty Jets plus one ninety.

1403
01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm and

1404
01:09:05,479 --> 01:09:09,080
Speaker 4: to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, betmgm is

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01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:01,640
Speaker 4: To get started, must be twenty one or older and

1421
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 4: physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

1422
01:10:07,200 --> 01:10:10,840
Speaker 4: or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight

1423
01:10:10,920 --> 01:10:13,639
Speaker 4: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

1424
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:16,400
Speaker 4: and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania,

1425
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:19,439
Speaker 4: and West Virginia. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana.

1426
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:21,720
Speaker 4: One eight hundred two seven zero seven to one to

1427
01:10:21,760 --> 01:10:24,200
Speaker 4: one seven in Michigan, one eight hundred eight eight nine

1428
01:10:24,360 --> 01:10:26,800
Speaker 4: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets

1429
01:10:26,800 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 4: off in Iowa or one eight eight eight five three

1430
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 4: two thirty five hundred in Virginia. Betsink not available in Nevada.

1431
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:35,799
Speaker 4: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1432
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:39,400
Speaker 3: And now it is time for the best of the rest,

1433
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:42,959
Speaker 3: which are the games that we did not talk about

1434
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:46,120
Speaker 3: in any other segment, All right, stuck. First up, we

1435
01:10:46,160 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 3: have the Vegas Raiders going to KC and Arrowhead late

1436
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:51,360
Speaker 3: in the year. The Raiders are eight and a half

1437
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:55,000
Speaker 3: point underdogs. The total forty seven and a half. I

1438
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:58,439
Speaker 3: thought about betting the Raiders this week, but it's a

1439
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:01,559
Speaker 3: pretty public dog, which scares me. You know. I know

1440
01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, they first time they covered as a favorite

1441
01:11:05,439 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 3: of a touchdown of more than nine tries against Denver

1442
01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:12,120
Speaker 3: and probably should have been a touchdown less on their ledger.

1443
01:11:12,240 --> 01:11:17,320
Speaker 3: So not a lot of offense and offensive consistency, I

1444
01:11:17,320 --> 01:11:19,479
Speaker 3: should say for the Chiefs. But what does worry me

1445
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:24,600
Speaker 3: is that thus Bradley, after being at the forefront of

1446
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:26,760
Speaker 3: kind of slowing down the Chiefs a couple of years ago,

1447
01:11:27,560 --> 01:11:29,880
Speaker 3: decides that even though he sees all this film of

1448
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:33,280
Speaker 3: the two I safeties and everything slowing down KC, you know,

1449
01:11:33,320 --> 01:11:36,320
Speaker 3: make them go down the field, Vegas kind of stuck

1450
01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:37,760
Speaker 3: to what they did and just ran a lot of

1451
01:11:37,760 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 3: single high, a lot of Cover three, a lot of

1452
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 3: Cover one, and the Chiefs had their best offensive game

1453
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:45,360
Speaker 3: of the year pretty much against Vegas. So that is

1454
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:48,680
Speaker 3: another thing that worries me. But this line is ten

1455
01:11:48,720 --> 01:11:50,599
Speaker 3: at some books, it's eight and a half at bet MGM,

1456
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 3: which is probably a sharper line given the chief struggles

1457
01:11:53,320 --> 01:11:55,479
Speaker 3: to cover these big numbers. But I don't know, I'm

1458
01:11:55,520 --> 01:11:57,679
Speaker 3: kind of on the fencia leaning towards a no bet.

1459
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:02,720
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, I would lean Vegas here too,

1460
01:12:03,040 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 2: but that the Chiefs are just hard enough to crack another.

1461
01:12:06,120 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 2: Defense is definitely playing better since a lot of personnel

1462
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 2: changes and got healthier the third EPA for play seventh

1463
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:15,000
Speaker 2: success rate since week eight, But Mahomes still isn't right.

1464
01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:17,680
Speaker 2: Like last week, the Broncos weren't even playing purely too

1465
01:12:17,720 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 2: high to tell the whole game, he was still struggling.

1466
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 2: He's thirtieth in EPA plus completetion percentagde of re expectation

1467
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:28,640
Speaker 2: deposits since week seven, just behind Trevor Simeon and just

1468
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:32,080
Speaker 2: above Jared Goff. There's something off with Mahomes. I don't

1469
01:12:32,120 --> 01:12:36,479
Speaker 2: know if he's overthinking things now. His receiver's dropping balls

1470
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:40,160
Speaker 2: isn't helping, but he just something looks off with the offense.

1471
01:12:40,680 --> 01:12:42,920
Speaker 2: But against the Raiders everything looked great, so maybe it

1472
01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:46,120
Speaker 2: does again. I think that there's a little bit ten

1473
01:12:46,160 --> 01:12:47,400
Speaker 2: is a little bit of value in Vegas. But this

1474
01:12:47,479 --> 01:12:50,320
Speaker 2: might be a stay with Yeah really yeah, just gathering

1475
01:12:50,360 --> 01:12:51,280
Speaker 2: intel on the Chiefs.

1476
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:53,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. Really, the defense is playing well. I don't think

1477
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:56,599
Speaker 3: there's any doubt about that. It just that if they

1478
01:12:56,640 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 3: hadn't played so recently, and the Raiders did exist what

1479
01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 3: I thought they shouldn't have done on defense, and the

1480
01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:05,200
Speaker 3: Chiefs exploited it and looks fine, then I would be

1481
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:08,800
Speaker 3: a lot more willing to play this number. But right here,

1482
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:11,840
Speaker 3: it's like we haven't tracked any sharp action on Vegas.

1483
01:13:11,960 --> 01:13:15,360
Speaker 3: It was just surprising given the line. So yeah, I

1484
01:13:15,479 --> 01:13:17,880
Speaker 3: might stay away, but yeah, it just might just be

1485
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,360
Speaker 3: like yeah, like watch the game, gat them more intel,

1486
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:22,920
Speaker 3: like you said, not a whole lot here. I don't

1487
01:13:22,960 --> 01:13:25,120
Speaker 3: think there's a big edge, even though I do think

1488
01:13:25,160 --> 01:13:29,599
Speaker 3: the number just purely based on the Chiefs offensive struggles

1489
01:13:29,680 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 3: might be a tad high. Next game, I keep forgetting

1490
01:13:33,520 --> 01:13:36,599
Speaker 3: this game is on the slate. It's like irrelevant for fantasy.

1491
01:13:36,720 --> 01:13:40,040
Speaker 3: I don't really want to bet it. But Jaggs Titans

1492
01:13:40,080 --> 01:13:44,519
Speaker 3: in Tennessee. Titans are nine point favorites. The total is

1493
01:13:44,560 --> 01:13:47,759
Speaker 3: forty three and a half. James Robinson a little banged

1494
01:13:47,840 --> 01:13:52,680
Speaker 3: up Titans could be getting Julio back. He's activated off

1495
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:57,200
Speaker 3: the ir which starts his practice window. But just not

1496
01:13:57,320 --> 01:14:00,000
Speaker 3: much offensive to speak of here. I just worry about

1497
01:14:00,160 --> 01:14:03,840
Speaker 3: like silly things on defense, turnover, special teams, craziness and

1498
01:14:03,920 --> 01:14:04,800
Speaker 3: as far as the total.

1499
01:14:04,840 --> 01:14:07,400
Speaker 2: But what do you think here, pure pass I mean,

1500
01:14:07,400 --> 01:14:10,519
Speaker 2: it's hullly gonna play Golden, Golden Tate gonna play. They

1501
01:14:10,520 --> 01:14:12,960
Speaker 2: can't you know, if Julio doesn't play and Golden, the

1502
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:15,479
Speaker 2: Titans can't throw the ball. Her defense is playing better.

1503
01:14:15,520 --> 01:14:17,519
Speaker 2: I still think they're an under team. Trevor Lawrence is

1504
01:14:17,520 --> 01:14:20,040
Speaker 2: starting to play worse, which I thought he was gonna

1505
01:14:20,040 --> 01:14:21,680
Speaker 2: get better, but he hasn't been great the past couple

1506
01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:24,240
Speaker 2: of weeks. I think this line is right on. If

1507
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 2: Julio doesn't play, I might look under here, but nothing

1508
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:29,639
Speaker 2: great to talk about here.

1509
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:32,360
Speaker 3: What a twist would it? Would it be? If Zack

1510
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:35,679
Speaker 3: Wilson ends up being the better rookie quarterback than Trevor

1511
01:14:35,760 --> 01:14:38,400
Speaker 3: Lawrence down the stretch and to finish the year, then

1512
01:14:38,840 --> 01:14:41,280
Speaker 3: t Higgins ends up being the better Bengals receiver than

1513
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:45,280
Speaker 3: Jamar Chase. It's like the way the season started, You're like,

1514
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:49,519
Speaker 3: no way, but yeah, it's like the under is tempting

1515
01:14:49,640 --> 01:14:51,840
Speaker 3: forty three and a half key number of forty three.

1516
01:14:52,040 --> 01:14:55,840
Speaker 3: Maybe check the app maybe, but just some my gut

1517
01:14:55,920 --> 01:14:57,360
Speaker 3: kind of tells me it could be kind of all

1518
01:14:57,439 --> 01:14:59,840
Speaker 3: kinds of silliness in his game and the final ones

1519
01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:04,760
Speaker 3: in a silliness Giants Chargers. Chargers are ten point favorites

1520
01:15:04,960 --> 01:15:07,639
Speaker 3: the totals forty four. But we have a lot going

1521
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:11,120
Speaker 3: on here on both sides. For the Giants, Jake fromm

1522
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,439
Speaker 3: is probably starting this game because you have Daniel Jones

1523
01:15:14,520 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 3: is doubtful with the neck injury. Even though he practiced,

1524
01:15:17,040 --> 01:15:20,800
Speaker 3: he's doubtful. And then Mike Glennon's in the protocol, so

1525
01:15:21,120 --> 01:15:22,760
Speaker 3: no telling if he's going to get cleared. It looks

1526
01:15:22,760 --> 01:15:25,040
Speaker 3: like they're preparing as if From's gonna start. He's getting

1527
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 3: the first team reps. Sterling Shepherd practiced, Kenny Gaday and

1528
01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:33,600
Speaker 3: Kadarius Tony still did not, so could have Shepherd and

1529
01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:36,360
Speaker 3: Slayton as the top two receivers this week. It's a

1530
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:38,320
Speaker 3: revolving door there every week. See if that these two

1531
01:15:38,320 --> 01:15:40,400
Speaker 3: of them are heard, if not all three. And then

1532
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:43,360
Speaker 3: for the Chargers, keithan Allen went on the COVID list

1533
01:15:43,400 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 3: on Monday. I believe it was he's vaccinated, has a

1534
01:15:46,600 --> 01:15:50,120
Speaker 3: chance to clear. But now Mike Williams just went on today,

1535
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:52,639
Speaker 3: So now you're just worried about a cluster of COVID

1536
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 3: for the whole wide receiver room which now and Equer's

1537
01:15:57,479 --> 01:15:59,840
Speaker 3: banged up. You know, he's on the injury report. So

1538
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 3: now you're just talking about a Chargers offense that either

1539
01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:04,920
Speaker 3: one way or another, they're probably not getting a lot

1540
01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:07,559
Speaker 3: of practice time. Now the Giants are coming across country,

1541
01:16:07,720 --> 01:16:11,720
Speaker 3: so Chargers probably can handle business. But it's hard to

1542
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:15,160
Speaker 3: justify the Chargers as ten point favorites, even against a

1543
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:18,400
Speaker 3: third string quarterback, if they don't have their top two receivers.

1544
01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:22,200
Speaker 3: But I don't know, I mean, what do you think

1545
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:22,400
Speaker 3: it is?

1546
01:16:22,439 --> 01:16:27,200
Speaker 2: One? We gotta wait till later the week for more info. Yeah, really,

1547
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:29,800
Speaker 2: there's just way way too much that. Certainly on Wednesday,

1548
01:16:30,280 --> 01:16:32,800
Speaker 2: Giants tend to make these games close. But like Jake

1549
01:16:32,880 --> 01:16:34,880
Speaker 2: from I don't know what he's gonna do throwing the

1550
01:16:34,920 --> 01:16:38,160
Speaker 2: ball at who's playing for the Chargers. There's way too

1551
01:16:38,200 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 2: much for me to offer any real analysis that that

1552
01:16:41,680 --> 01:16:43,760
Speaker 2: could be completely relevant in the next day or two.

1553
01:16:44,120 --> 01:16:45,920
Speaker 2: So as of right now, pure pass. But stay tuned

1554
01:16:45,920 --> 01:16:47,360
Speaker 2: to the action over capa see if we have any

1555
01:16:47,360 --> 01:16:48,200
Speaker 2: plays there.

1556
01:16:48,479 --> 01:16:49,960
Speaker 3: That's gonna do it for the best of the rest.

1557
01:16:50,520 --> 01:16:52,880
Speaker 3: And now it's closed out with Survivor Pool Pick of

1558
01:16:52,920 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 3: the Week.

1559
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:02,160
Speaker 1: Iverpool Pick of the league.

1560
01:17:03,960 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 3: All right, so we were eliminated both in week twelve.

1561
01:17:06,280 --> 01:17:08,800
Speaker 3: But you know, just for anyone who's still alive, first

1562
01:17:08,800 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 3: of all congratuations, we'll just talk about I guess who

1563
01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:14,160
Speaker 3: do we kind of favor here among the teams that

1564
01:17:14,200 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 3: people may have available for me? I'm looking at Denver

1565
01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:21,200
Speaker 3: against Detroit, probably the one that I think people would

1566
01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:23,599
Speaker 3: still have. I wouldn't hesitate to use them. I think

1567
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:26,640
Speaker 3: wet down spot Chargers against the Giants. I'd be a

1568
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:30,839
Speaker 3: little hesitant. Just with the COVID issues. Packers against the Bears.

1569
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:33,920
Speaker 3: You should probably be fine if you haven't used the

1570
01:17:33,960 --> 01:17:39,040
Speaker 3: Packers yet, but Aaron Rodgers, you know, not practicing. You

1571
01:17:38,479 --> 01:17:40,880
Speaker 3: never want to lock that into early. And it's a

1572
01:17:40,880 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 3: Sunday night game. So I still think Denver is a

1573
01:17:43,439 --> 01:17:46,519
Speaker 3: better play than them Seattle, if you haven't used them,

1574
01:17:46,640 --> 01:17:48,720
Speaker 3: I think it's fine. They're on the road though, so

1575
01:17:48,760 --> 01:17:51,599
Speaker 3: i'd still win Denver And then already talked about New

1576
01:17:51,680 --> 01:17:54,320
Speaker 3: Orleans probably on upset alert, so I kind of steer

1577
01:17:54,400 --> 01:17:54,840
Speaker 3: clearer with them.

1578
01:17:54,840 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, it's Denver week, Okay, that's.

1579
01:17:58,400 --> 01:18:01,360
Speaker 3: Gonna do it. For the Action Now Podcast with Odds,

1580
01:18:01,360 --> 01:18:04,599
Speaker 3: presented by BETTMDM and the six pack courtesy of Athletic

1581
01:18:04,720 --> 01:18:07,200
Speaker 3: Brewing Company. As a reminder, you can follow all of

1582
01:18:07,200 --> 01:18:09,280
Speaker 3: our picks on the award winning Action Network app. Just

1583
01:18:09,280 --> 01:18:11,800
Speaker 3: search for the Sunday six Pack in the Action Network

1584
01:18:11,840 --> 01:18:15,000
Speaker 3: Apps Follow feature. You can find Stuck on Twitter at

1585
01:18:15,000 --> 01:18:18,000
Speaker 3: Stucky two, you can find me at Chris Raybon, and

1586
01:18:18,040 --> 01:18:20,360
Speaker 3: you can find us at those same handles in the

1587
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:23,800
Speaker 3: award winning Action Network app, where you can follow all

1588
01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:28,240
Speaker 3: of our bets and track yours for free. Be sure

1589
01:18:28,240 --> 01:18:30,080
Speaker 3: to check out at Action network dot com for all

1590
01:18:30,120 --> 01:18:33,839
Speaker 3: of our betting content, including Stucky's Monday Night Football breakdown

1591
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:37,559
Speaker 3: and my Sunday Night Football breakdown, our Fantasy football rankings

1592
01:18:37,560 --> 01:18:40,280
Speaker 3: and projections, which shout out to my guys Sean Kerner.

1593
01:18:40,560 --> 01:18:42,160
Speaker 3: Him and I finished number one and two at the

1594
01:18:42,200 --> 01:18:46,800
Speaker 3: Fantasy pros Accuracy contests for week thirteen, so check those out,

1595
01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:48,600
Speaker 3: and be sure to check out Fantasylabs dot com for

1596
01:18:48,640 --> 01:18:52,800
Speaker 3: our DFS content, tools and models. Until next week, Let's

1597
01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:53,479
Speaker 3: get this money.

1598
01:18:53,840 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 2: Let go