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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm dok Krisner. There

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Speaker 2: certainly have been tremendous swings in the oil markets over

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Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: The situation in terms of the war with Iran has

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Speaker 2: been dynamic in both words and actions. Early in the

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Speaker 2: Asian session on Monday, WTI crude oil rose to nearly

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty dollars, and that in turn prompted

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Speaker 2: G seven finance ministers to say they were ready to

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Speaker 2: take any steps necessary to support global energy supply.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: Then, Monday afternoon, in the US, President Trump told CBS

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Speaker 2: News the operation with Iran is very far ahead of

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Speaker 2: its initial four to five week timeframe, and Trump went

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Speaker 2: on to say he's considering taking over the Strait of

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Speaker 2: Hormuz now. The president's remarks to CBS came after the

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Speaker 2: oil market closed in New York. However, the equity market

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Speaker 2: was still open and share prices staged a pretty dramatic turnaround.

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Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred ended higher by around

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Speaker 2: eight tens of one percent after having been down one

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Speaker 2: and a half percent. For a closer look, let's bring

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Speaker 2: in Bloomberg Steven Stepchinsky. Stephen is team leader for the

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Speaker 2: Asia Energy Group and he joins us from Singapore. Give

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Speaker 2: me your sense of what you've been observing in the

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Speaker 2: oil market lately.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think what we've seen is a lot

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Speaker 4: of anxiety, a lot of anxiety because we're in unknown territory.

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Speaker 4: The straight of horm moves has never been shut for

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Speaker 4: this long before. It's been over a week. Likewise, we're

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Speaker 4: starting to see output cuts from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia as

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Speaker 4: well as the uae AD NOx they're large producers also

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Speaker 4: adjusting supply. So all of that together is putting us

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Speaker 4: into an area where the market has never had to

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Speaker 4: deal with this before. And the big unknown is how

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Speaker 4: long does this conflict continue for. It's really unclear even

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Speaker 4: after Trump's statements, whether this is going to be a

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Speaker 4: quick reversal or if this is something that could continue

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Speaker 4: for several more weeks or a month. Now the market

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Speaker 4: is betting that Trump is going to perhaps be able

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Speaker 4: to wind this up relatively quickly. He made some comments

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Speaker 4: over the last twelve hours stating that lots of the

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Speaker 4: operations are done and effectively the US has won, and

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Speaker 4: there's more winning to be done, but he also wants

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Speaker 4: to provide some guarantees for the market as well. All

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Speaker 4: that together is a lot of lip service, whereas the

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Speaker 4: market is waiting for actual action. Brent opened this morning

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Speaker 4: in Asia ten percent lower, which indicates that there is

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Speaker 4: some of that anxiety has been easing. But as long

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Speaker 4: as the straight up Hormove's mirians shut, it provides about

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Speaker 4: one fifth of global seaborne oil supply, and if that

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Speaker 4: doesn't open again quickly, then potentially you could see oil

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Speaker 4: prices rise again if this doesn't get resolved.

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Speaker 2: Is it not important to point out, in terms of

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Speaker 2: the context of this story that right now there's essentially

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Speaker 2: a global glow in oil.

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Speaker 4: That's a really good point, and I think that's part

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Speaker 4: of the reason why it's only been in the last

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Speaker 4: few basically in the last twenty four hours where we

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Speaker 4: saw that spike in oil prices and then fall again.

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Speaker 4: Last week the market was relatively subdued while prices were rising,

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Speaker 4: there was some anxiety. You do have to remember it,

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Speaker 4: like you said, that we are facing a glunt opek

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Speaker 4: plus is has been adding more supply. US oil output

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Speaker 4: has been very strong. There have been other producers outside

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Speaker 4: of the Persian Gulf area that has been adding more

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Speaker 4: oil and barrels into the market. And because of all

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Speaker 4: of that, you're seeing a much different sort of market

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Speaker 4: today than potentially wood was seen if it were twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty two. For example, in twenty twenty two you saw

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Speaker 4: a really large reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine because

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Speaker 4: the market was much tighter. Now there is an expectation

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Speaker 4: that they would be able to weather this, if they're

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Speaker 4: able to make resolution or if this war and you were,

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Speaker 4: in a ran word, end relatively quickly, but again unsharted tear.

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Speaker 4: It's unclear how long the straight of woor moves will

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Speaker 4: may shut, but at least in the short term the

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Speaker 4: market will be able to weather it. The only issue

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Speaker 4: is some of the people have to pay for it,

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Speaker 4: are those in the emerging world. They're paying higher prices

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Speaker 4: that they usually can't afford, and also to some degree

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Speaker 4: energy shortages.

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Speaker 2: So, Steven, is it your sense then that volatility is

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Speaker 2: likely to continue. We're not out of the woods so

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Speaker 2: to speak yet.

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Speaker 4: Oh absolutely. I mean, I think when you talk to

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Speaker 4: the traders, when you look at the market action over

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Speaker 4: the last few days, volatility has come back, and it's

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Speaker 4: actually I would say that the volatility in the market

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Speaker 4: had been subdued or getting more subdued over the last

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Speaker 4: few years. There was a lot of volatility in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty two with the war in Ukraine. That sort of

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Speaker 4: began to ease as more oil into the market as

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Speaker 4: the market became more balanced. Now we're back and basically

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Speaker 4: the volatility era that we saw about four years ago.

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Speaker 4: And if you just look at what happened over the

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Speaker 4: last twenty four hours, oil prices spiked WTI. The US

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Speaker 4: benchmark spiked to almost one hundred and twenty dollars a

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Speaker 4: barrel and then fell down into the eighty dollars barrel range.

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Speaker 4: It was a thirty eight dollar range, which is quite

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Speaker 4: unheard of, and hearkens back to some of the swings

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Speaker 4: we saw four or five years ago, and also during

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Speaker 4: the COVID era when oil prices went negative very briefly.

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Speaker 4: So I think, because there is so many unknowns, you're

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Speaker 4: going to see people latch onto Trump's statements in words

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Speaker 4: and also perhaps his deeds and what he actually does

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Speaker 4: and how the US acts, and you're going to see

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Speaker 4: not just people bet on that but also you know

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Speaker 4: algorithmic trading people who are our fear of missing out

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Speaker 4: the fomo trade where they see prices right and they

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Speaker 4: want to jump into it. So I think volatility definitely

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Speaker 4: is in the cards, at least for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 2: Do we have a sense of whether or not oil

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Speaker 2: infrastructure in the Gulf has been impacted at all. A

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Speaker 2: lot of what we've been describing here has to do

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Speaker 2: with the flow of energy on tankers, but I'm wondering

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Speaker 2: about the infrastructure per se.

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Speaker 4: That's a really good question because we have spent a

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Speaker 4: lot of time talking about the straight or war moves,

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Speaker 4: which is really important. But theoretically if that were to

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Speaker 4: you know, if there was a pea steal, traffic could

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Speaker 4: resume through the strait rather quickly. Now, if there's any

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Speaker 4: infrastructure that's been intacted, if there is any damage to facilities, suddenly,

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Speaker 4: this isn't just a quick fix. You can't just restart everything.

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Speaker 4: This takes more time. You have to have maintenance, You

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Speaker 4: how to bring in new parts, spare parts, cruise or

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Speaker 4: overseas to do the repairs. Now, the good news is

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Speaker 4: that there doesn't seem to be any major damage to

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Speaker 4: key facilities. There have been attacks on facilities. The world's

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Speaker 4: largest loquified natural export facility in Qatar had been attacked

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Speaker 4: and they had to shut that plant last week, but

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg analysis of satellite photos shows that the main facility

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Speaker 4: remained intact and there was no meaningful damage that we

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Speaker 4: could see. Likewise, there has been a large refinery in

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Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia that was shut, and there have also been

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Speaker 4: attacks over the weekend, strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, the

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Speaker 4: storage in particular, which again these are small depots that

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Speaker 4: don't necessarily affect the flow of oil. So the market

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Speaker 4: I think is still weighing everything. But the risk, the

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Speaker 4: fact that there are still tit for tat retalatory strikes

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Speaker 4: between Iran and its neighbors, has slowed over the last

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Speaker 4: twenty four hours, but it's still that risk still exists.

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Speaker 4: The market is going to be worried that maybe one

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Speaker 4: drone or one attack does take out a pipeline, a

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Speaker 4: significant one does take out an export facility, and that

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Speaker 4: could cause damage that would last for weeks and months

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Speaker 4: and not something that can be quick fixed.

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Speaker 2: Rather quickly in today's session, Asian equities are breathing, I

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Speaker 2: think a collective sigh of relief and moving higher. Talk

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Speaker 2: to me a little bit about the vulnerability of many

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Speaker 2: of the economies in the Apac region that are heavy

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Speaker 2: oil importers and the risk of higher inflation if this

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Speaker 2: were to reverse course oil prices were to move higher

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Speaker 2: once more and remain at elevated levels.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: No, I mean Asia is the biggest buyer of the

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Speaker 4: oil and gas that comes out of the Gulf. Now

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Speaker 4: we're talking about global market, but when we're actually talking

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Speaker 4: about barrels and ships moving the fuel, a lot of

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Speaker 4: them go to Asia. And while there are countries that

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Speaker 4: are better place to whether the storm, China has diversified

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Speaker 4: their supply enough both domestically and from other trade partners

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Speaker 4: that they are able to handle this at the moment.

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Speaker 4: And the developed world, I'm talking Japan and South Korea,

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Speaker 4: they've got large oil reserves and they have systems where

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Speaker 4: the government can subsidize to some degree oil and energy purchases,

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Speaker 4: or they passed the cost down to consumers who are

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Speaker 4: able to deal with it because they're richer than the

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Speaker 4: developing world, which cannot necessarily take on that cost. So

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Speaker 4: the shortages and those who are likely to feel The

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Speaker 4: biggest pain even now with oil prices in the eighty

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Speaker 4: dollars range are nations in South and Southeast Asia. I'm

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Speaker 4: talking Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Pakistan and Bangladesh. And

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Speaker 4: you know, those countries are in particular very dependent on

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Speaker 4: oil and gas from the region. Pakistan, I know, I

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Speaker 4: said it twice, but it's just that important. They import

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Speaker 4: ninety nine percent of their loquified natural gas from Katar

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Speaker 4: and they've that supply has stopped, which means that they've

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Speaker 4: had to curb supply to fertilizer plants. There are also

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Speaker 4: fears that LPG prices are rising quite quickly. LPG is

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Speaker 4: a fuel used for cooking and households, so it's a

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Speaker 4: really key commodity. And on top of that, you know,

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Speaker 4: you just have the general higher petrol prices. People are

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Speaker 4: running to the running to the pumps to get their gasoline.

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Speaker 4: And while there are no shortages because of the way

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Speaker 4: that the Brent prices and the oil prices globally are rising,

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Speaker 4: it just means higher costs for these consumers. And these

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Speaker 4: consumers don't have the disposal income that that those in

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Speaker 4: the developed world had, and that it has a real

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Speaker 4: strain on the consumer and the economies for these countries.

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Speaker 2: So at around six pm, all straight time Monday, President

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Speaker 2: Trump spoke with reporters in Miami and he said he's

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Speaker 2: planning to waive oil related sanctions. And I'm wondering whether

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Speaker 2: that's code for Russia and what impact might a little

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Speaker 2: bit more Russian oil have on global markets.

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Speaker 4: You know, we actually already saw them wave some some

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Speaker 4: sanctions on Russian oil. They waved basically, they gave waivers

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Speaker 4: to India for oil Russian oil that has been sanctioned,

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Speaker 4: that's already on the water. It's a one month waiver,

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Speaker 4: and they were able to provide basically an opportunity for

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Speaker 4: India one of these part hit countries kind of suck

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Speaker 4: up this floating oil that had already been out there,

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Speaker 4: kind of you imagine it as like a floating storage

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Speaker 4: sort of situation and suck that up. Now, that was

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Speaker 4: helpful for India, but it's a bandage, yes, providing you know,

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Speaker 4: with Russian oil pochentially flowing to other countries with that

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Speaker 4: being not impeded. It does provide some relief, but it

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Speaker 4: is a bandage when you look at the amount of

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Speaker 4: oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz, and the

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Speaker 4: amount of oil that's being cut from the major producers

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Speaker 4: in the Gulf, that just is so much larger than

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Speaker 4: the waivers that the US can give or what Russia

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Speaker 4: can provide, at least in the short term. So again

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Speaker 4: it's a short term solution, but it doesn't remove the risk,

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Speaker 4: the volatility, and quite frankly, it's just still the elevated

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Speaker 4: prices eighty dollars. Yes, we've dropped from the highs of

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Speaker 4: earlier in the session on Monday, but still above where

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Speaker 4: we were before the strikes US and Israel strikes on

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Speaker 4: Iran began about more than a week ago.

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Speaker 2: That's a very good point, Steven, Thank you so very much, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Steven Stepchinsky. He is team leader for the Asia Energy Group.

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Speaker 2: Joining us from Singapore here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Krisner.

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Speaker 2: The Australian government granted humanitarian visas to five members of

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Speaker 2: the Iranian female soccer team. These players sought asylum citing

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Speaker 2: fear for their safety after they declined to sing the

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Speaker 2: national anthem during a match on the Gold coast last week. Now,

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Speaker 2: Iranian state television reportedly labeled these players as traders. That's

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Speaker 2: where we began our conversation with Craig Foster. Craig is

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Speaker 2: a human rights activist and former captain for the Australia

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Speaker 2: men's soccer team. Craig spoke with Bloomberg's Heidi stroud Watz.

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Speaker 1: Craig, you've been speaking out on behalf of these women

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Speaker 1: for some days now. Tell us about your experience in

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Speaker 1: terms of how this all transpired, particularly over the last

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Speaker 1: twelve to twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, last day, Hadi has been really very quickly evolving

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Speaker 3: situation which often happens once it becomes not just public

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Speaker 3: but very visible around the world. That generally does two things. One,

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Speaker 3: it can provide some form of level of protection to

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Speaker 3: the athletes because that notoriety means that you know, you've

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Speaker 3: got more people who might be able to access them. Also,

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Speaker 3: if they do leave Australia, are either forcibly removed or

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Speaker 3: decide to return back to Iran. We're hoping as well,

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Speaker 3: which is why these interviews are important, that that notoriety

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Speaker 3: and the eyes of the global football community will be

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Speaker 3: on them, which might hopefully afford them some level of protection.

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Speaker 3: So in the last few days we've been calling on

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Speaker 3: the Asian Football Confederation and FIFA to step in. It

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Speaker 3: was very clear that at least some, if not all,

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Speaker 3: of the women were being placed in an environment of coercion,

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Speaker 3: silencing and a lack of safety and lack of security

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Speaker 3: and very high risk. So the AFC had a responsibility,

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Speaker 3: that's the Asian Football Confederation. They should have stepped in

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Speaker 3: immediately several days ago to satisfy themselves that that wasn't

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Speaker 3: the case. We've seen this too often with women athletes

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Speaker 3: across a whole range of sports, and particularly in football,

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Speaker 3: and it's clear that we don't have the systems and

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Speaker 3: protocols in place to ensure that any of these women

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Speaker 3: could have made an SOS claim, if you like, through

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Speaker 3: a trusted and confidential and private source.

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Speaker 5: So this is where we've landed.

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Speaker 3: We've landed in an environment where the Australian government has

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Speaker 3: had to intervene, has been encouraged to intervene because of

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Speaker 3: the risk factors that are obvious. We also know the systematic.

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Speaker 5: Persecution of high profile athletes.

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Speaker 3: Have spoken out against the Ranian government in over a

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Speaker 3: course of many years, a lot of human rights campaigns

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Speaker 3: have been run. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty and others

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Speaker 3: have identified those systematic patterns. So that's why we've been

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Speaker 3: so concerned about the group, and thankfully an intervention by

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Speaker 3: the Australian government allowed five of them to not only

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Speaker 3: understand their rights but exercise them.

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Speaker 5: The urgent and immediate situation today.

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Speaker 3: Is to ensure that the rest of the group are

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Speaker 3: not removed from Australia before having an opportunity to understand

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Speaker 3: their rights and to make a personal decision about whether

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Speaker 3: they would like to exercise them.

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Speaker 1: In terms of what transpired overnight, how useful, influential, impactful,

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Speaker 1: or just a matter of good timing, was that conversation

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Speaker 1: with President Trump?

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Speaker 3: Well, their stony government was very aware of the situation

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Speaker 3: prior to, was already working on the situation, and was

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Speaker 3: actually on the ground at least forty eight hours ago.

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Speaker 3: So I can't answer to that it wasn't on the call.

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Speaker 3: What I would say about these situations is we need

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Speaker 3: to be a little bit careful in the over politicization

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Speaker 3: of them. What's clear with these women is that they've

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Speaker 3: already been in a deeply politicized environment by the Iranian

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Speaker 3: government and the Iranian Member Federation, and of course, in

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Speaker 3: the context of this conflict in which Iran is directly involved,

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Speaker 3: so too is Australia and the US. These women can

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Speaker 3: very easily be placed in a situation where the primary

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Speaker 3: consideration is not their safety, it can be actually using them,

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Speaker 3: you know, as media.

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Speaker 5: Tools if you like.

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Speaker 3: We've seen this multiple times throughout football history and sporting history,

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Speaker 3: you know, the intersection of sport and politics. Well I

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Speaker 3: shouldn't say intersection, they're basically one and the same, that's

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Speaker 3: you know, and we've seen that in the way this

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Speaker 3: Iranian women's team have been silenced, effectively held hostage in

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Speaker 3: their hotel in order that they couldn't speak to the

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Speaker 3: media or even access external support. So from our perspective,

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Speaker 3: you know, as a former player, former chair of our

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Speaker 3: Players Association here in Australia, the only consideration should be

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Speaker 3: the welfare and safety of this entire group. That's what

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Speaker 3: we're really focused on. I think there was no question

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Speaker 3: in Australia was going to offer the women assign them anyway,

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Speaker 3: independent of any phone call. It's the women who've shown

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Speaker 3: the courage here. It's the activists around the hotel who've advocated,

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Speaker 3: you know, courageously for their rights. You know, it's those people,

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Speaker 3: I think, you know who are at the center of

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Speaker 3: this story.

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Speaker 1: Greig, You've done so much activism and within this space.

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Speaker 5: Has it surprised you.

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Speaker 1: That this sort of path to bipartisan political support, to

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Speaker 1: public support has been easier to garner that attention and

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Speaker 1: that broader support because we know that matters of asylum

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Speaker 1: seeking of refugees of immigration can be quite difficult for Australia.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a really good question.

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Speaker 3: Australia, like many countries, has had a kind of tortured

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Speaker 3: relationship with the concept of seeking asylum and of the

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Speaker 3: protection of vulnerable and persecuted people, and so you know,

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Speaker 3: we've had a lot of you know, public kind of

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Speaker 3: angst around those issues, and our record on providing protection

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Speaker 3: to people who seek it is very checkered, if you like.

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Speaker 3: What we do see repeatedly is a wonderful sense of

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Speaker 3: compassion and care from Australians when particularly we see women

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Speaker 3: in trouble, and that's important. We should be very proud

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Speaker 3: of the response of the Australian community to this moment.

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Speaker 3: Of course, we did grant asylum as well and evacuated

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Speaker 3: the Afghan women's national team. Again, there was some political

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Speaker 3: considerations around that because Australia was involved in that actual

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Speaker 3: conflict and the like. Nonetheless, sport is so powerful in

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Speaker 3: countries like Australia that it can provide a different context

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Speaker 3: to a group. We saw this with the Hockey mal

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Speaker 3: Aabi campaign back in twenty eight and nineteen. What saved

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Speaker 3: his life was not the fact that he was in

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Speaker 3: a TI prison and we were able to secure his freedom.

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Speaker 3: He was saved largely because he played football and so

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Speaker 3: he was seen as something more than just an asylum

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Speaker 3: seeker or more than just a refugee.

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Speaker 5: That's certainly the case here again.

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Speaker 3: So my hope is always that Australians and other people

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Speaker 3: around the world can respond to these situations by saying, well,

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Speaker 3: if we feel strongly about this group of women, we

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Speaker 3: should feel strongly about the rights of all women. That

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Speaker 3: includes other asylum seekers and refugees, but it also includes

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Speaker 3: all women in conflict. And it's a good opportunity for

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Speaker 3: us in time because it's still a live, critical situation.

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Speaker 3: But in time we should reflect on all of those

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Speaker 3: issues international law. Where we sit in respect to that

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Speaker 3: with Australia, because we should put no people at harm.

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Speaker 3: But it is fantastic that Australia has responded to this group.

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Speaker 3: We still need to make sure that the remaining members

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Speaker 3: are safe.

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Speaker 2: However, it was Craig Foster, former captain of the Australian

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Speaker 2: men's soccer team, speaking with Bloomberg's Heidi Stroud Watts bringing

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Speaker 2: you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia

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Speaker 2: Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance,

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Speaker 2: and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You can find us

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere

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Speaker 2: else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on

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Speaker 2: the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia.

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Speaker 2: I'm Doug Chrisner and this is Bloomberg