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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney alongside my co host Matt Miller. Every

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Speaker 2: business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Find

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Markets Podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever you

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Speaker 2: listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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Speaker 3: We are going to pivot a little bit to go

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Speaker 3: more macro.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 3: We've got our very own Michael McKee, international economics and

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Speaker 3: Policy correspondent. In our guest note for you, McKee, I'm

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Speaker 3: learning so much. You're a White House correspondent. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: I didn't know about that years ago. To me, you're

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Speaker 3: just literally the fed person and you came out of

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Speaker 3: the womb covering the fest.

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Speaker 5: I did politics for twenty years and it's spent nine

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Speaker 5: years at the White House, and I got bored and

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Speaker 5: they said.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you can word at the White House.

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Speaker 5: It's not as much fun as people think.

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Speaker 3: From twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 5: It's great to do the big stories of the day,

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Speaker 5: but you can't go anywhere. You can't you can only

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Speaker 5: talk to people on the phone, and when you travel

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Speaker 5: with the White House you travel in a giant cavalcade

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Speaker 5: like a circus. You fly to a city, you get

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Speaker 5: on a bus, you go to a hotel meeting room,

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Speaker 5: and then you get on the bus and go back again. There.

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Speaker 5: You can do a lot more on other.

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Speaker 3: Beats well, and as you've proven on the FED beat,

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Speaker 3: So talk to me about what you're looking at when

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Speaker 3: it comes to next week. It's kind of foregone conclusion

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Speaker 3: that we're going to see a hike. What is your

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Speaker 3: question going to be when it comes to speaking in

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Speaker 3: the FED meeting afterwards? What are you looking to hear

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Speaker 3: from Powell?

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Speaker 5: Well, we're going to fly to Washington and get in

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Speaker 5: a taxi and go to a meeting room and wait

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Speaker 5: for j.

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Speaker 6: Powell.

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Speaker 5: Very far, the thing that everybody wants to know is

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Speaker 5: what's next. There's a ninety five percent chance priced in

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Speaker 5: the market that they're going to raise rates, and that's

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Speaker 5: basically one hundred percent given the complexity of that calculation.

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Speaker 5: And so do they go another time? Given the data

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Speaker 5: suggests they don't have to at the moment, but there

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Speaker 5: are reasons to think the data might turn around, and

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Speaker 5: so that's going to be kind of a question that

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Speaker 5: overhangs everything in the FED meeting, do they go again,

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Speaker 5: and if they then are going to go again, do

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Speaker 5: they wait until November and do another skip in September.

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Speaker 3: Do you anticipate them saying anything in that FED meeting

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Speaker 3: next week that will indicate what they're going to do next?

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Speaker 3: Or is it going to be we're open the totality.

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Speaker 5: Of the data where Yeah, I think the latter, because

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Speaker 5: they don't want to lock themselves into something, because we're.

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Speaker 6: Going to have a lot of data.

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Speaker 5: Between now and say November, if they wanted to sort

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Speaker 5: of program a skip in there, you'll have a number

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Speaker 5: of employment reports and CPI reports and PCE reports, So

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Speaker 5: the whole character of the debate could change very easily.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, And we have a slew of economic data coming

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Speaker 7: out next week as well. You know, if you were

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Speaker 7: to pick kind of one data point that you're most

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Speaker 7: focused on given following the FED, what would it be.

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Speaker 5: Well, Friday's pc report will tell us a couple of things.

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Speaker 5: One is in their favorite inflation indicator, it's expected to

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Speaker 5: drop the way CPI did, maybe not as much, but

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Speaker 5: to show progress on inflation, but also spending, our consumers

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Speaker 5: holding up. Are they still spending but at a lower rate,

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Speaker 5: which is kind of what the Fed wants to see.

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Speaker 5: They want to see demand come down a little bit.

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Speaker 5: So those are going to be perhaps the most interesting

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Speaker 5: things of the week that tell us something about what's

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Speaker 5: happening going forward. The GDP report will also give us

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Speaker 5: some idea of how the economy is holding up, and

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Speaker 5: it's according to all the now casting ahead of time,

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Speaker 5: it's holding up much better than people thought, and that

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Speaker 5: may change some minds about in terms of economists forecasts

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Speaker 5: for what's going to happen. And if it comes in strong,

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Speaker 5: especially consumer spending, you could see an equity rally on

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Speaker 5: that basis, although you always have to discount the fact

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Speaker 5: that then the markets think, oh, they're going to raise

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Speaker 5: rates more. It would show that people are still spending money.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and that personal consumption piece of the GDP last

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Speaker 7: time coming in quite you know, quite strong, holding up

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Speaker 7: the overall number, and then revisions coming in higher as well.

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Speaker 8: I mean.

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Speaker 7: When you think about consumer spending, I mean the kind

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Speaker 7: of notes we've been getting from earnings calls are like, hey,

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Speaker 7: we're seeing a wall, we're hitting a wall, and yet

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Speaker 7: the data seems to come in, you know, continually more

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Speaker 7: positive than anticipating.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it all depends on the categories, the sectors that

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Speaker 5: people are spending money in, and how you define a wall.

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Speaker 5: If you had been seeing sales grow out of four

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Speaker 5: or five percent rate and then they drop down to

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Speaker 5: two because the Fed's rate interest rates are higher, or

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Speaker 5: because the economy slows a little bit, that's okay. If

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Speaker 5: a wall means zero, and then of course what we've

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Speaker 5: got is a lot of retailers reporting and retail sales

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Speaker 5: numbers that have come out that are are weak or weaker,

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Speaker 5: but we don't know what's bending in services has been like.

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Speaker 5: And you know, you don't get earning supports from the

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Speaker 5: corner dry cleaner, So that's what we're going to be

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Speaker 5: looking for.

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Speaker 3: How much is the FED looking at those earnings results?

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Speaker 5: They look at them, but the market isn't their primary concern.

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Speaker 5: As long as the market as long as trades can happen,

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Speaker 5: then their views stocks go up, stocks go down. So

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Speaker 5: obviously earnings impact asset values, and asset values are all

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Speaker 5: part of inflation as well, So it's something they keep

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Speaker 5: an eye on, but it's not something that drives their

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Speaker 5: decision making.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we were just talking with Alexandra about you know,

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Speaker 7: one of our top headlines today, US recession becomes a

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Speaker 7: closer call. As economists rethink forecasts, has the FED rethought

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Speaker 7: its take on whether we do need to see thoroughly

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Speaker 7: indicators move negative at least a shallow recession. Are you

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Speaker 7: getting any signals?

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Speaker 5: No, they've been pretty consistent. FED officials have all said

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Speaker 5: they don't think we need to have a recession, and

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Speaker 5: of course Chris Waller way out in front saying a

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Speaker 5: year ago that we could get by without a recession

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Speaker 5: and without seeing unemployment rise significantly. The FED staff has

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Speaker 5: consistently at the last three meetings forecast recession at the

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Speaker 5: end of the year. It will be interesting to see

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Speaker 5: when we get the minutes of the meeting next week

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Speaker 5: three more weeks for that, whether the FED staff is

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Speaker 5: still in the recession mode.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, final question for you, McKee. We've got about

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Speaker 3: thirty seconds. Jeopardy here, final jeopardy here. How many data

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Speaker 3: points do you think the FED needs to see that

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Speaker 3: look like last week with CPI and on farm payrolls

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Speaker 3: to justify an end.

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Speaker 5: Probably one or two more, depending on how much the

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Speaker 5: numbers move. Yeah, if you've got a big drop. Then

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Speaker 5: maybe they start to feel good after one, but I

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Speaker 5: think they want to see two at least to give

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Speaker 5: them the idea that this is not going to turn

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Speaker 5: around immediately.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, A lot to monitor for them, because it's very confusing.

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Speaker 3: How much is going on out there with employment looking

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Speaker 3: great GDP stains drawn, and then you've got on the

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Speaker 3: other side of things, consumer spending starting to buckle a

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Speaker 3: little bit when it comes to the earnings picture. Michael McKee,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much as always.

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Speaker 5: You know, I love to see you got to go

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Speaker 5: out and spend so that we can save the acaus.

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Speaker 3: Oh I'm spending. Don't worry, it's summer exactly, all right, guys,

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Michael McKee. With us there.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the teenth Kenser Live program Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 6: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

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Speaker 6: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 6: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: We are going to cover some mildly breaking news from

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Speaker 3: this morning. We got the trial date for Donald Trump's

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Speaker 3: classified documents trial, that date being May twentieth of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four, So we have a fantastic guest in the

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Speaker 3: studio with us. If Paul were here, he'd say, you

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Speaker 3: get extra credit. Wendy. This is Wendy Schiller. She is

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Speaker 3: a professor at Brown University and can talk all things

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Speaker 3: politics with us. So, Wendy, thanks for coming in this

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Speaker 3: May twentieth date. It feels to me like this is

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Speaker 3: bad news for the Justice Department, who wanted December, and

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Speaker 3: bad news for the Trump camp, who wanted it to

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Speaker 3: be after the November election. So how are you digesting

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Speaker 3: that date and is it good news for anyone?

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Speaker 9: Well, I'm not sure the judge split the difference, but

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Speaker 9: if both parties are unhappy, that probably is a good

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Speaker 9: thing in terms of how the decision was made. The

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Speaker 9: primary season will be essentially settled by then. You know,

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Speaker 9: the primary calendar is out now, with some states unsettled

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Speaker 9: New Hampshire for the Democrats, for example. But nonetheless, you know,

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Speaker 9: we'll know whether Trump is likely to be the nominee

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Speaker 9: by May of twenty twenty four. It will shape the

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Speaker 9: campaign itself because if the nominee is decided, we think

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Speaker 9: it's probably gonna be Biden and we think it may

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Speaker 9: be Trump, then the American public's attention is on this trial,

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Speaker 9: and so it will galvanize Trump supporters, but it might

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Speaker 9: also continue to give independent voters who are absolutely crucial

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Speaker 9: in twenty twenty four more pause about voting for the

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Speaker 9: Republican nominee from president. And so that's how do the

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Speaker 9: Republicans get around that they're gonna want to mobilize their

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Speaker 9: based for congressional elections and the presidential election. But how

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Speaker 9: do you actually get those voters who have rejected Trump

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Speaker 9: for three elections in a row now to.

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Speaker 1: Come back in the middle of a trial.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, how do the Republican challengers, the Ron DeSantis, the

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Speaker 7: Nicki Haleys of the world, how do they play this?

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Speaker 7: Considering that you know the primary season is going to

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Speaker 7: be largely over.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think they have to worry about August twenty third,

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Speaker 9: tom more, you know, the first debate. You know, if

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Speaker 9: Trump shows up, then they get to attack him directly,

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Speaker 9: and we've seen them to be reluctant to do that.

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Speaker 1: They're dancing around it.

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Speaker 9: But Trump showed in twenty sixteen that if you take

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Speaker 9: your opponent's head on and you show no mercy, you

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Speaker 9: will do better. With the Republican primary voting base, So

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Speaker 9: they have to worry about how to get attention from

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Speaker 9: now until December, and then if Trump is not on

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Speaker 9: that debate stage, who's going to watch it? So I

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Speaker 9: think their problem is momentum. And the other thing is,

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Speaker 9: of course the January sixth trial shoe, When does that drop?

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Speaker 9: And how do we manage in terms of our justice

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Speaker 9: system these two very important federal trials.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, certainly a race for all these trials moving forward,

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Speaker 7: which one gets the most attention first? But I mean,

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Speaker 7: you know you say that, you know, Trump showed the

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Speaker 7: success of going out there being very fourth right, But

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Speaker 7: criticizing Trump has been a negative for lots of politicians

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Speaker 7: over the past several years. Is there any signs that

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Speaker 7: that's starting to change.

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Speaker 9: Well, a very famous now long gone Clark Clifford political advisor,

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Speaker 9: started out with Harry Truman said, you can't beat somebody

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Speaker 9: with nobody. You have to actually present the alternatives, say

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Speaker 9: this guy can't win, I can win. Don't you want

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Speaker 9: to be a winner? Trump has sold himself on being

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Speaker 9: a winner, and the problem is now he has tagged

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Speaker 9: Ron DeSantis, I think his closest best funded challenger as

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Speaker 9: a loser, even though I got re elected by massive

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Speaker 9: numbers in Florida and supposedly so popular there. So Trump

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Speaker 9: is just winning the pr war exactly someone as you say,

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Speaker 9: And if you're not Chris Christie, who just doesn't care

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Speaker 9: and is going.

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Speaker 1: After him, you lose that war. Before you get on

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Speaker 1: the stage, you have to show Republican voters you're willing

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Speaker 1: to fight.

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Speaker 9: One of the things that keeps these voters loyal to

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Speaker 9: Trump is that he has always been willing to fight

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Speaker 9: theoretically for them, but also for himself. And that's a

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Speaker 9: trait that seems to have really resonated and is sticking

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Speaker 9: with them. So if you can't show that you're willing

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Speaker 9: to do that on a debate stage with not that

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Speaker 9: much to lose, I'm not sure how you ever pull

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Speaker 9: like the nine percent of that Trump base they're going

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Speaker 9: to need to win the primers.

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Speaker 3: Well, and you mentioned desand this as well. Why is

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Speaker 3: he struggling so much at the start of his campaign?

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Speaker 1: You think Massin that is you know political observer question.

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Speaker 9: If we were talking six months ago, a year ago,

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Speaker 9: it was that this guy is clearly at one.

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Speaker 1: Hundred and ten million dollars.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, he's a lovely family, really, you know, no scandals

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Speaker 9: that we can think of, you know, young he would

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Speaker 9: be the ready made candidate, and he's just stumbled and stumbled.

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Speaker 1: And the problem is that he.

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Speaker 9: Doesn't seem to be connecting with voters on the campaign trail,

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Speaker 9: voted and primaries are retail politics. So if you don't

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Speaker 9: connect over in a large arena, you don't connect on

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Speaker 9: television or media, and then you don't connect in person,

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Speaker 9: there's no reason to switch your allegiance.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's his big problem. And how you

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Speaker 1: get over that, that's you know.

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Speaker 9: You need a lot of pr training. I'm not quite sure.

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Speaker 9: It's whether the Republicans want to win. And there are

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Speaker 9: enough Republicans, by the way, in the Republican primary base

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Speaker 9: that if they all chose to go with somebody else,

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump would not be the nominator.

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Speaker 7: Well, I guess the idea with the Santas and the

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Speaker 7: appeal for the conservative voting base has been that he's

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Speaker 7: essentially Trump, but he knows how to play the system.

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Speaker 7: And when you look at you know, some of the

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Speaker 7: plans that Trump has come out with recently to target migrants,

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Speaker 7: bureaucrats as well as ramp up his China, his push

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Speaker 7: back towards some of the policies in China. I mean,

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Speaker 7: a lot of the things specifically on the domestic side

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Speaker 7: that he's suggesting not necessarily going to get past the

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Speaker 7: courts or Congress, etc. Does anyone care on the Republican insider.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, you know, first of all, one thing

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Speaker 9: we have to think about is Trump is the incumbent, right.

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Speaker 9: I mean, he's not in office, he is not. He's

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Speaker 9: former President Trump. But to the Republicans who voted for

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Speaker 9: him and loyal to him, he's still the incumbent Kennedy

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Speaker 9: incumbent president. So if you're not voting for him, you're

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Speaker 9: sort of disloyal rights, like voting against Jimmy Carter or

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Speaker 9: George Herbert or her Bush when they were challenging the primaries.

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Speaker 9: So that's a psychological hit, right, how do you get

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Speaker 9: over that challenge? And the second thing is Trump focuses

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Speaker 9: on things that matter economically to a wide birth of people,

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Speaker 9: Tariffs China, the loss of jobs of the last twenty

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Speaker 9: five years because of our free trade policies, for example.

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Speaker 9: He continues to do that, whereas DeSantis chose really social

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Speaker 9: not narrow but social issues in Florida. So how many

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Speaker 9: people care about sort of what you're reading in a

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Speaker 9: textbook in Florida? How many people care about what you

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Speaker 9: can do in Florida. Whereas Trump has the opportunity to

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Speaker 9: say I was tough on China internationally, and I'm going

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Speaker 9: after all the things that matter to you in Iowa,

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Speaker 9: into Michigan, into Pennsylvania and Nevada. So this is the

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Speaker 9: advantage Trump has and it's a big one over DeSantis

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Speaker 9: right now. So that's I think the sort of the

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Speaker 9: big gulf between the two of them. No matter what

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Speaker 9: Desanta says about what he does internationally, Trump can say

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Speaker 9: I did.

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Speaker 4: That right, right.

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Speaker 3: And it's interesting because I was covering the Desantas campaign

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Speaker 3: for the mid terms down in Miami and went to

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Speaker 3: one of his events, and he doesn't want to shake hands,

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Speaker 3: like it's the most simple things that you have to

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Speaker 3: do on the campaign trail as a candidate that he's

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Speaker 3: not necessarily willing to engage in. And that feels like

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Speaker 3: the thing that Trump is so good at when it

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Speaker 3: comes to engaging with voters.

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Speaker 1: And Trump is also I mean, Mason, that's a really

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Speaker 1: great point.

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Speaker 9: And the other thing that Trump has been good at

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Speaker 9: as many people as he alienates.

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Speaker 1: He also appeals particularly in Florida.

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Speaker 9: And you can say more about this because you were there,

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Speaker 9: is that there's a bunch of people who are now

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Speaker 9: foreign warm naturalized citizens from a lot, lot of countries

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Speaker 9: in Latin America who are used to strong leaders, who

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Speaker 9: like that type of leadership and may not be as

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Speaker 9: liberal on social policies as the Democrats are used to

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Speaker 9: thinking about particular LATINX voters. So Trump did better in

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Speaker 9: Florida amongst the whole people in Miami Dade, for example,

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Speaker 9: and Biden did worse. And that's a scary proposition for

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Speaker 9: the Democrats nation. Why I particularly you think about Nevada

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Speaker 9: and to give us some other states that they need

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Speaker 9: to Arizona that they need to really hold. And there's

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Speaker 9: where Trump also understands that people are not monolithic based

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Speaker 9: on whatever their background is.

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Speaker 1: And DeSantis has nothing to offer.

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Speaker 9: These voters to say I'll be better or even in

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Speaker 9: my persona that I'm going to remind you of the

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Speaker 9: way it was when there was order instability. Sometimes I

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Speaker 9: have trouble with this idea because if they left their

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Speaker 9: home countries, there must have been something wrong with that,

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Speaker 9: so we have to think about that. But this is

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Speaker 9: a looming issue for the Democrats that I think they're

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Speaker 9: not quite on top of right now.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, let's turn this to the Democratic side though, because

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Speaker 7: we had the news that an FBI document with purportedly

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Speaker 7: then according to the GOPF evidence of bribes paid by

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Speaker 7: Ukrainian businessmen to President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, well,

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Speaker 7: apparently it's not as clear as Republican lawmakers have portrayed it.

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Speaker 7: Is this the end of this frenzy of headlines and

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Speaker 7: news about this purported issue, these potential bribes.

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Speaker 9: You know, difficult relatives have been around in American politics

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Speaker 9: for a long time for presidents. I mean, I'm old

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Speaker 9: enough to remember Billy Carter and way before your time.

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Speaker 9: But he caused Jimmy Carter a lot of problems. Hunter

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Speaker 9: Biden in the end of the day may be prosecuted

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Speaker 9: or indicted or alleged to other crimes, and he may,

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Speaker 9: you know, have to, you know, do another plead deal.

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Speaker 9: We have no idea, but there's no evidence that we

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Speaker 9: can see right now that ties any of this to

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Speaker 9: Joe Biden, And so I think that's a big hill

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Speaker 9: to climb.

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Speaker 1: For the Republican Party.

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Speaker 9: People may not love Joe Biden, but I don't think

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Speaker 9: it's a inclination to think that he's super corrupt among

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Speaker 9: independent voters and the Democrats. And so the independent voters

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Speaker 9: are just key in all these swing states.

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Speaker 1: And if you can't.

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Speaker 9: Get them over to believe that, they can believe the

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Speaker 9: sun went astray, but to have them believe this is

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Speaker 9: going to take a lot. And if you focus everything

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Speaker 9: on that, I think then the Democrats bring up January

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Speaker 9: sixth over and over and over again, and that's direct

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Speaker 9: allegation against president former President Trump.

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Speaker 3: Right, We're going to have to bring you back on

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Speaker 3: to talk more about Biden and Biden nomics as well,

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Speaker 3: because I was hoping to get your take on how

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Speaker 3: that's playing with voters. Wendy, thank you so much for

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Speaker 3: joining us today. This is Wendy Schiller. You're hearing a

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Speaker 3: professor at Brown University political expert here. Really great to

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Speaker 3: get your take, so we appreciate it.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the Take cans Our Live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 6: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 7: Turn back a little bit to the earnings a picture,

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Speaker 7: because we did have Blackstone earnings coming out yesterday, we

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Speaker 7: had Blackrock earnings about a week before, and we want

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Speaker 7: to get the latest on this with Kathy Seaffert. She's

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Speaker 7: the director of research at CFRA. She has it by

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Speaker 7: rating on both of these names. Kathy, let's start with Blackstone.

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Speaker 7: You know, the picture kind of mixed here.

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Speaker 1: What was your takeaway?

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Speaker 4: The picture was mixed, But I think we're starting to

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Speaker 4: see signs, encouraging signs. I mean, granted, coming out of

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Speaker 4: the pandemic, most of these companies in the asset management

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Speaker 4: space are going to have some tough comps after a

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Speaker 4: strong post pandemic recovery. But in the case of Blackstone,

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Speaker 4: I mean, the shares are up over forty percent this

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Speaker 4: year because they weakened late in twenty twenty two on

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Speaker 4: news that the company was starting to put a ban

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Speaker 4: on redemptions in the real estate space. So, I mean,

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of moving parts here, but I think

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Speaker 4: bottom line, I think the stock is poised to outperform,

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Speaker 4: largely because there's still a positive secular growth story here

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Speaker 4: in the demand and for private credit, private equity assets,

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Speaker 4: assets that are not correlated to the broader market. I

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Speaker 4: think the thing that we need to see, and it'll

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Speaker 4: help a lot of other companies in this sector, is

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Speaker 4: the capital markets activity to improve so that private equity

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Speaker 4: firms can increase realizations, which would help their top line,

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Speaker 4: and that'll also help the ibanks as well.

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Speaker 3: Do you think private credit is still the big winner

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Speaker 3: for these asset managers?

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Speaker 4: There is still I also follow the insurance companies, so

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Speaker 4: I sort of see the demand curve for this, and

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Speaker 4: there is still a fair amount of demand for private credit.

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Speaker 4: I think one of the trends to be looking for

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Speaker 4: is kind of the democratization of these products, as private

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Speaker 4: equity firms seek to build out a suite of products

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Speaker 4: aimed at not just the ultra high net worth, but

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Speaker 4: high net worth individual So I think that to a

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Speaker 4: degree will also help fuel some of the demand. Insurance

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Speaker 4: companies are still increasing their allocation to private credits, so yeah,

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Speaker 4: I do think that the demand curved, they're still fairly attractive.

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Speaker 10: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: One of the things overall. I mean, maybe this demand

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Speaker 7: for private credit continues, but Blackstone generally finding it hard

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Speaker 7: to raise new funds. They raise seventeen billion dollars in

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Speaker 7: the second quarter. That was down seventy seven percent on

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Speaker 7: a year on year basis. Maybe that wasn't unexpected, but like,

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Speaker 7: why are they finding it so challenging to raise these

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Speaker 7: funds right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean this is also coming off, as I said,

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Speaker 4: a really strong fundraising year after the pandemic, So there

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Speaker 4: are tough comparables there, and I think, you know, I

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Speaker 4: think the environment, given the velocity of interest rate changes,

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Speaker 4: you know, brought on by the FED, I think it

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Speaker 4: was difficult for a number of firms to make commitments.

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Speaker 4: So my senses that things will pick up once the

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Speaker 4: interest rate environment, you know, settles down a little. I

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Speaker 4: think it's also important to remember that if you look

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Speaker 4: across the asset management space, private equity firms and the

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Speaker 4: likes of black Raw continue to grow organically, i e.

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Speaker 4: They continue to bring in new business. There are a

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Speaker 4: lot of asset management firms that don't, and they're bleeding assets.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's also important that, yes, while it's

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Speaker 4: down from a really strong you know, couple of years previously.

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Speaker 4: It still represents organic growth, which is which is significant

441
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 4: because once you get some market performance, you get dual

442
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 4: catalysts of organic growth and the tailwind of asset appreciation.

443
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: Well, one of the headwinds is the slowdown in deal making,

444
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 3: as you know Microsoft activision. Notwithstanding there, how big of

445
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 3: a headwind is the challenging deal making market that we're

446
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 3: currently in right now for these firms.

447
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, not to make a plumbing analogy, but

448
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 4: it's kind of like the pipeline is sort of backed

449
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 4: up a little bit, and you know, if you look

450
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 4: at sort of the fund inflows and outflows in private equity,

451
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 4: at some point you need to start realizing some profits

452
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 4: on these assets, particularly as you know, some of these

453
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 4: funds have set you know, targeted expiration dates. It's difficult

454
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 4: if you're not realizing gains on those assets. I mean,

455
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 4: what we're seeing in a lot of the private equity

456
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 4: firms is they are deploying capital. And I think at

457
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: some point, and John Gray talked about this on the

458
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 4: Blackstone call that he's that you know, as the year progresses,

459
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: the capital markets activity should pick up and that should

460
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 4: help the pipeline which ultimately helps top the top line

461
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 4: at private equity firms like Blackstone.

462
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 1: Canny talk to me a little bit about Blackrock.

463
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 7: It seems like flows into their long term products widely

464
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 7: missed analyst expectations. I mean, is this the same flavor

465
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 7: of issue that we were seeing at Blackstone to.

466
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 4: A degree, yes, I mean I still the fact that

467
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 4: they continue to have organic growth that's sort of at

468
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: the top of the heat for traditional asset managers. That's key.

469
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 8: The fact that.

470
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 4: They have a Laddin their technology business, that's key, although

471
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 4: quite frankly, Silicon Valley Bank was reported to be in

472
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 4: a Laddin client, so that was a little bit of

473
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 4: a black eye. We didn't hear anything about that on

474
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 4: the call. But again it's a function of some tough

475
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 4: comparables coming out of the pandemic. I also see black

476
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 4: Rock at a little bit of an inflection point. You know,

477
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 4: they dominate in ETFs, they have a strong fixed income franchise.

478
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 4: Where they don't have a big presence is in alternatives,

479
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: private credit things like that, and so I see them

480
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 4: gradually building out that business, likely through acquisitions, although I

481
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 4: don't see them making blockbuster deals. I see sort of

482
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 4: a bunch of sort of smaller incremental deals. I do

483
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 4: still like the franchise, though.

484
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, one of the questions has been what

485
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 7: happens when Larry Fink kind of steps back. We only

486
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 7: have about a minute here. Give me your thoughts. How

487
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 7: close are we to even getting a name of a successor?

488
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: You know, this is the game that we play with

489
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 4: Berkshire Hathaway. I follow Berkshire Hathaway, and this is the

490
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 4: game everyone likes to play. Bottom line, I think the

491
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 4: bench at Blackrock is deep enough that investors do not

492
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 4: need to worry about the future of black Rock after

493
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 4: Larry Fink.

494
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 7: Very interesting, He's such a personality, you know, he's I

495
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 7: mean that said. Blackrock is a big organization, and folks,

496
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 7: you know, we look at Blackstone has been able to

497
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 7: move on, have been able to establish a new top dog,

498
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 7: even after our founder Steve Swartzman steps away, right.

499
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, It's really interesting to continue to monitor kind

500
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: of these big name guys on Wall Street that continued

501
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 3: to just have such a huge impact on the overall

502
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 3: market and sentiment traders really hanging onto every word that

503
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: they say, especially given just the volatility and confusing nature

504
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 3: of the market that we are currently in simone.

505
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 6: You're listening to the team Ken's a live program Bloomberg

506
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,479
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

507
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen

508
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

509
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: The outlook in bullish calls. We've got a great guest

510
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: on here. We've got Gina Bulvin, the president of Bulvin

511
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: Wealth Management, coming on and Gina had a bullish call

512
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 3: in January about fifteen percent rise in the S and

513
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,719
Speaker 3: P five hundred, one of the only strategists that we

514
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 3: were having having on at the time with a bullish call,

515
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 3: so really excited to chat with her. Gina, thank you

516
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 3: so much for joining us on this Friday. As we

517
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 3: were just talking about with Alex, typically a good first

518
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 3: half of the year can lead to a good second

519
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 3: half of the year as well. Given the bullish call

520
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 3: that you had back in January, are you still bullish

521
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 3: for the second half of the year.

522
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 8: So I am, first of all, thanks for having me

523
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 8: back on, and you're right.

524
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 11: In January, I came on and I said the market

525
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 11: was going to be fifteen percent by the end of

526
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 11: the year, although I thought it would take all year

527
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 11: to get there. We had thought the second half was

528
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 11: going to drive most of the games, and it was

529
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 11: really the first half, which goes to why I tell

530
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 11: clients that you cannot time the market. We are bullish, however,

531
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 11: and we do think that this is a strong, confirmed

532
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 11: bull market. However, we think that this young bull market

533
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 11: is due for a pause. You know, we've come so

534
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 11: far so fast, and even healthy bowl markets have corrections.

535
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 11: An average correction might be twelve to thirteen percent. But

536
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 11: we still think twelve months, eighteen months out from now,

537
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 11: we think the market will be higher than where we

538
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 11: are now.

539
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean describe to me how that pause happens.

540
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,199
Speaker 7: What does it look like. Which names are going to

541
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 7: be in focus? Is it the tech names that have

542
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 7: had this incredible rally and been leading this stock market higher?

543
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's exactly right.

544
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 11: You know, we're expecting our technology to take a pause.

545
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 11: And what's going on today at the four o'clock today,

546
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 11: the NASDA one hundred is going to rebalance, and we're

547
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 11: going to see those top five names microso off to Amazon, Apple,

548
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 11: Alphabet and Video. Those waitings are going to be taking

549
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 11: from forty three percent to the Nasdaq one hundred down

550
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 11: to thirty eight percent. So that's going to cause some

551
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 11: volatility and there's a very high bar to clear because

552
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 11: of those stocks and the whole tech tech sector has

553
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 11: done so well. But the bet isn't out of the

554
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 11: The bet isn't out of the way either.

555
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: That's right.

556
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 7: But this options expiration, like, how much of an impact

557
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,239
Speaker 7: does that have is because it seems sort of an

558
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 7: idiosyncratic on some degree. Does that permanently change the mood

559
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 7: in any of these big names?

560
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 11: Not not really, you know, you know, we're really looking

561
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 11: at you know, where we're going to be more longer term,

562
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 11: even twelve months for now, and once a bull market

563
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 11: is confirmed, the average return is nineteen percent twelve months out,

564
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 11: so we and the average bull market is five years.

565
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 11: So we think that this market has legs and it's

566
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 11: going to continue. But short short term that could be

567
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 11: a pullback. And you know, next week is a big

568
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 11: week with the Fed as well. He's expected to raise

569
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 11: rates by a quarter of a point. It'll be interesting

570
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 11: to see his comments in how hawkish.

571
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 8: He is.

572
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: Well as he usually does, I feel like he leaves

573
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 3: himself open to the totality of the data and gives

574
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 3: himself a little bit of flexibility there. Having said that, though,

575
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: I'm really interested in your recession call as it relates

576
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: to market sentiment. Because the Dow posting nine day winning

577
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 3: street twenty five times since nineteen fifty, only three of

578
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: those streaks happened within a recession year. Where do you

579
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 3: see evidence of a recession? Given the technicals of the

580
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: market and what we're seeing in the economy.

581
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 11: We actually think that the odds of a soft landing

582
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 11: give increased, and the consumer has really you know, the

583
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 11: consumer is seventy percent of the economy and the consumer

584
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 11: is still spending.

585
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 8: I think earlier in the year, a lot of people.

586
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 11: Predicted that the consumer would you know, rein it in

587
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 11: a little bit more because inflation was so high. Many

588
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 11: strategists talk about fomo fear of missing out in the market,

589
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 11: and I'm really focused on YOLO. The consumer has been

590
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 11: underestimated because COVID. COVID has given them that YOLO you

591
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 11: only live once mentality, and they are continuing to spend.

592
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 11: A recession could be likely, but that doesn't necessarily mean

593
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 11: the stock.

594
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 8: Market's going to go down once.

595
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 11: A recession is called or we know we're in a recession,

596
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 11: the market usually rallies because the market's forward looking. If

597
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 11: we do have a recession, we do think it'll be mild,

598
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 11: but it's really going to be based on you know,

599
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,959
Speaker 11: the labor market as well, and that's something to keep

600
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 11: an eye on.

601
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, and we get data around that as well next week. Okay,

602
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 7: So if this bull market is due for a pause,

603
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 7: where do you hide out in equities right now?

604
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 8: Well, I don't know that you hide out.

605
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 11: You know, we were a little neutral on technology, we

606
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 11: were overweighted. We went from overweight to neutral on tech.

607
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 11: And we do like industrials right now, there's a great

608
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 11: offshoring trend that looks very attractive. We also like medical devices,

609
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 11: and you know, you might want to start looking at

610
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 11: small caps and mid cap stocks. I think it's a

611
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 11: little early, but they haven't done they haven't done that much.

612
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 11: And that's where we're at right now.

613
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 3: When you think about small caps and mid caps, what

614
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 3: are you looking at to determine which kind of secondary

615
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 3: plays are going to be the most successful and effective.

616
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 11: Well, small cap stocks are very economically sensitive, and as

617
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 11: we head out of a recession, they generally tend to lead,

618
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 11: So that's something that you would want to keep an

619
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 11: eye on.

620
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 3: And in the moment that we're in right now too,

621
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 3: I'm curious, do you think that we're about to enter

622
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: kind of an era of dividend plays? Is that going

623
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 3: to be the move moving forward?

624
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 11: Well, that goes more to value stocks, and I do

625
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 11: think that growth stocks will continue to do well, and

626
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 11: I would tell investors to have a Barbelle approach, to

627
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 11: have some growth stocks and some value stocks, some dividend plays.

628
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 11: But also keep in mind that you know, as rates

629
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 11: are so high interest rates that this is going to

630
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 11: be good for fixed income investors, and now you're going

631
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 11: to be able to get a higher yield off money

632
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 11: market accounts and bonds could do well, so you could

633
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 11: also get how you yields through fixed income with less

634
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 11: of a risk than investing in stocks.

635
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 7: Let's turn back to the consumer for a moment, because

636
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 7: I've had my eye on a bunch of consumer oriented

637
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 7: earnings and we've been talking about how that is such

638
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 7: an important piece of the economy. Take me through a

639
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 7: we have this potential for just some weakness that we've

640
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 7: seen trading down, maybe not buying as much from some

641
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 7: of the you know, consumer packaged goods side. At the

642
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 7: same time, we've got travel where Delta and the like

643
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 7: are still seeing this enormous demand, especially for international travel.

644
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 7: Where is the consumer now. Is this a bifurcated sort

645
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 7: of high high income low income situation?

646
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 11: Absolutely, And but you know, and that had set that

647
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 11: segues right into inflation. Right the lower end consumer is

648
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 11: hit more with inflation, they feel it more.

649
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 8: But we expect and one.

650
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 11: Of the reasons why we continue to be bullish is

651
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 11: we expect inflation to be at a three handle by

652
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 11: the end of the year and that is really going

653
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 11: to help the lower end consumer and that's going to

654
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 11: help them spend more. You know, we are starting to

655
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 11: see inflation come down. The reason we think it's going

656
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 11: to be down by the end of the year is

657
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 11: we had a blowout housing number. We are multifamily houses

658
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 11: building permits for multi family housings is booming. We haven't

659
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,720
Speaker 11: seen this type of activity in decades. When this supply

660
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 11: comes to the market at the end of the year,

661
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 11: that's going to put a downward pressure on rents and

662
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 11: that's the majority of CPI and that's why consumers are

663
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 11: going to continue to spend. We're going to see rents

664
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 11: coming down, inflation coming down, and they're going to have

665
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,720
Speaker 11: more money in their wallets. It's also because the job

666
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 11: market has been so resilient, right and so strong, and

667
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 11: when consumers have jobs, they will continue to spend.

668
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, we continue to see that strength in both the

669
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: labor market and with great wages as well. Gina, thank

670
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 3: you so much for joining us. That was Gina Bolvin

671
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 3: with Bolven Wealth Management.

672
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape cans Are Live program Bloomberg

673
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

674
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

675
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

676
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 6: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

677
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 7: Let's first, let's change gears. Get to Evangelos Momios. He's

678
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 7: an equity analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, because we have some

679
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 7: big news from the credit card companies today, AMEX American

680
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 7: Express revenue missing estimates, card spending growth slowing. Evangelists, what

681
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 7: exactly is happening here? Is this all just weakness around

682
00:35:55,960 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 7: the consumer, or is this something more fundamental to American expressesness.

683
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 10: Yes, like you know, the Misston revenue, but revenue expectations

684
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 10: where somewhat inflated.

685
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 12: The revenue still grew quarter over quarter, so the US.

686
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 10: Consumer conceits, continues to spend and continues to use his

687
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 10: or her credit cards. Delinquencies across the ward, not only

688
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 10: for American Express but also for those that cater to

689
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 10: lower credit profile customers like Capital One, Discover and so forth.

690
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 12: Delinquency rates have been growing up.

691
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 10: They have been normalizing from very good levels post pandemic.

692
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 10: But the big stories are that the growth is still

693
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 10: robot albeit a little lower than last year. The linquencies

694
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,399
Speaker 10: start going up, but in a you know, control sort

695
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 10: of fashion, had charge of those are credit losses are

696
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 10: also following the same path as the liquids with the delay.

697
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 10: So overall, probably more about inflated expectations and less about

698
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 10: any huge negative surprise from the credit card.

699
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 12: Lenders to this quarter.

700
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 3: Well, talk to me about those delinquencies specifically, where are

701
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 3: we seeing the most pain for consumers there?

702
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 10: Yeah, So the interesting point is that the linquincy rate

703
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 10: in the second quarter, as I said, went up, they

704
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 10: went up less than they did in the first quarter

705
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 10: or what that word. We don't have the exact breakdown

706
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 10: by five of stratification, but what they do tell us

707
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 10: is that what the companies tell us is that people

708
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 10: on the lower end of the five le tiers are

709
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 10: being more delinquent in their payments than those at the higher.

710
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 12: Level of the five poor tier.

711
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 10: And that's also evident when one compares the numbers between

712
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 10: those that focus again on higher risk profile customers like

713
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 10: Synchrony Financial, those that focus on prime super prime customers

714
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 10: like American Express.

715
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 7: How long do the executives of American Express and others,

716
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 7: how long do they see some of this weakness, especially

717
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 7: amongst the lower end consumers. How do they see that lasting.

718
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 10: It's very difficult to predict, but what we can say

719
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 10: if we look at longer periods is that generally for

720
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 10: delinquencies to continue to increase, you will have to have

721
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 10: some deterioration in the employment situation, and unemployment rate remains

722
00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 10: very low. So most of those executives on their conference goals,

723
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 10: they will tell you that we cannot predict the market,

724
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 10: that the economy, that we have to be ready, so

725
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 10: they're basically enough reserves ahead of that potential development, but

726
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 10: so far the consumer is holding up better than expected,

727
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 10: although as I said, it's a situation.

728
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 12: That is normalizing from prior to years.

729
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 3: Well, even though the consumer is holding up better than expected,

730
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 3: we're still I mean, it's just it's such a weird

731
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 3: vibe right now out there because there's so much good

732
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 3: news and bad news all the time, and one of

733
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: the pieces of bad news is obviously in the commercial

734
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 3: real estate space. To what extent do you see in

735
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 3: your research that investors are kind of scrutinizing Capital One,

736
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 3: other banks and credit companies due to consumer commercial real

737
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: estate exposure.

738
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, like you insinuated in your question, this is more

739
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 10: of a bad issue and less of a credit card issue.

740
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 10: Of the company's focused in credit card lending. Capital One

741
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 10: is one that has some commercial real estate exposure, but

742
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 10: it is insignificant compared to that of other banks. To

743
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 10: the explain that the commercial real estate pressure reflects some

744
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 10: deterioration in economic conditions that could affect the employment situation,

745
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 10: then it will be an issue for credit cards, but

746
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 10: nobody is making that connection yet, I.

747
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 7: Mean, differentiate between some of these credit card companies. For me,

748
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:50,760
Speaker 7: I believe you right that American Express is better position

749
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 7: for growth from here on. Is that because of the

750
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 7: I guess income level of their consumers or some other rush.

751
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 10: Now, Yeah, so there are two characters reistic the characteristics

752
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 10: the one that you just mentioned.

753
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 12: They focus more on super prime consumers. But the other

754
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 12: characteristic is that, unlike the other credit card.

755
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 10: Lenders, their revenue comes mostly from purchase activity, unless from

756
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 10: interest earned on outstanding balances. So in that respect, they

757
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 10: are not that directly impacted by interest state levels. But

758
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 10: they're more impacted by how often we use our credit

759
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 10: cards and for how large transactions. So when you see

760
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 10: people travel more, when you see airfare going up, hotel

761
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 10: price is going up, all that is good for American Express,

762
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 10: not as good or equally good for someone like Capital

763
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 10: or Discovered.

764
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 3: So, just to continue this competition between the names that

765
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 3: we're talking about here, is AMEX the best position of

766
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 3: those names to benefit from increased consumer spending? What's the

767
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: kind of hierarchy?

768
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 12: Yeah, in my opinion, although we don't make.

769
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 10: Recommendations on the stocks themselves at BI, what we can

770
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 10: say is that the fact that American Express is more

771
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 10: focused on prime super prime consumers, it's more sensitive to

772
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 10: spending than outstanding balances, they have an international presence. All

773
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 10: those characteristics will make it hold up better if there

774
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 10: is a recession, a consumer recession, which is the fear

775
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 10: right now. So as a result, I think their best

776
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 10: position compared to others, although I would reiterate it's not

777
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 10: like others are falling off the cliff. It's just that

778
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 10: things are not as great as they were for them

779
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 10: a year or two ago. And like you said, it's

780
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 10: a very strange environment.

781
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 7: Total about the health of the consumer here. But are

782
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 7: there other things, you know, compliance regulation that stand to

783
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 7: put these credit card companies to the test.

784
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 10: Yeah, there is an outstanding issue with a limit on

785
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 10: late payment fees that is under consideration by regulators and

786
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 10: the industry. If it comes into effect, it's going to

787
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 10: be sometime next year. We don't know the final form,

788
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 10: but it's an issue that would impact disproportionately those companies

789
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 10: that sponsor co branded cards, meaning the kind of card

790
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 10: you will see from your retailer without knowing exactly who

791
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 10: issued it. So those are in order of importance, Synchrony

792
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 10: Financial brand and to a lesser extent, Capital one. So

793
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 10: it's something that we keep an eye on that it's

794
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 10: not final life yet.

795
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 7: I always wonder exactly who is, you know, behind my

796
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 7: credit card whenever I get one of those retailer cards,

797
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 7: because it's always such a question mark for me.

798
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and it's always it's I feel like it's

799
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: a question mark for a lot of consumers. And this

800
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 3: is why this space is so interesting to watch as

801
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 3: an indicator of consumer health, as you know better than anyone, Simone,

802
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 3: so really interesting here. I think we got to leave

803
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 3: it there, but thank you so much for joining us in, Simone.

804
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 3: I can't wait to continue to hear your take on

805
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 3: kind of the consumer health when it comes to some

806
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 3: of these names and other ones.

807
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 7: And it's so interesting when you're looking at kind of

808
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 7: consumer credit because we are seeing some of these signals

809
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:48,280
Speaker 7: about you know, auto loan credit to tier rating, consumer

810
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 7: loan credit to terior rating and all of this, of

811
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 7: course with interest remains remaining high. So we're gonna have

812
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 7: to see exactly how that factors in to the health

813
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 7: of the consumer, particularly as we enter week for consumer earnings.

814
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape. Catch our live program Bloomberg

815
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The

816
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 6: tunin app, Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

817
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

818
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 6: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

819
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 3: Netflix and Tesla earnings a bit disappointing. We saw the

820
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 3: Nasdaq dropping by the most in five months after those earnings,

821
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 3: and this gives us a really good excuse to kind

822
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 3: of dig into the EV space after those Tesla earnings.

823
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 3: And we've got a great guest joining us to give

824
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 3: us a look at not just the EV space, but

825
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 3: specifically EV charging, which is a really interesting space to

826
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 3: be looking at. We've got Josh Aviv on the line.

827
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 3: He is the founder and CEO of Spark Charge. Josh,

828
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 3: great to speak with you. Thanks for joining us here

829
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 3: on this Friday. Before we get into kind of the

830
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 3: overall charging space, when it comes to EV's, talk to

831
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 3: me just about spark Charge specifically. What do you do,

832
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 3: what do you provide?

833
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 13: Absolutely so, at spark Charge, we charge electric vehicles in

834
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 13: a mobile fashion, so that means we actually deliver and

835
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 13: bring the range to the electric vehicle the same way

836
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 13: that you would order a pizza on your phone to

837
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 13: get delivered to your front door. We bring the charging

838
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 13: station to your electric vehicle, whether you be at home,

839
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 13: at work, out on the go. We make charging simple, convenient,

840
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 13: and easy.

841
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 7: This is one part of your business is to consumers,

842
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 7: to people get stuck, and then also to rental companies.

843
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 7: I understand, give me a breakdown. Where's most of the

844
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 7: revenue come from. I would assume rentals.

845
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 13: Right, absolutely so. Earlier this year we launched our fleet

846
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 13: charging business, where we actually now go out and service

847
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 13: fleet customers. So you're talking about companies that have, you know,

848
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 13: anywhere from as low as five all the way up

849
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 13: to close to one thousand vehicles in their fleet, electric

850
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 13: vehicles in their fleet. We go out and we service them.

851
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 13: We offer a turn key service where basically we can

852
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 13: show up and aren't charging every vehicle every single day.

853
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 13: They no longer have to worry about trenching, digging, tunneling, cabling,

854
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 13: submitting RFPs where they install the charging stations. We show

855
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 13: up with our mobile charging stations. We plug into every

856
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 13: single vehicle, We charge every single vehicle, and we make

857
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 13: it so that they can grow and scale their fleets

858
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 13: almost infinitely, so.

859
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 3: As you know, one of the potential big boons for

860
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 3: a name like Tesla is offering its own charging network

861
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 3: to other companies like Ford Evs, for example. I wonder

862
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 3: does the kind of democratization of Tesla's charging networks is

863
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 3: that good news for you guys or bad news?

864
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 13: It's really is good news. I mean when you think

865
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 13: about it, you know, the market from its inception was

866
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 13: you know, oh, we're gonna go with Chatamo for you know,

867
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 13: DC fast charging. Then it moved to CCS as the

868
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 13: dominant charging provider, dominant charging plug. Now it's you know,

869
00:47:56,600 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 13: North American Charging Standard is slowly starting to look like

870
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 13: it's going to become the dominant plug that you know,

871
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 13: e V OEMs will use to charge their vehicles. I

872
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 13: think that's really good. I think we need one standard.

873
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 13: I think, you know, trying to juggle three balls in

874
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 13: the air and figure out, well, does this car take Chatamo,

875
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 13: this one takes CCS, this one take NACS. I think

876
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 13: that's very difficult for not only OEMs but charging station

877
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 13: manufacturers like ourselves to kind of justify and keep up with.

878
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 13: I think if the industry moves with NACS, it's great

879
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 13: for everyone. It's a great standard. It's very much develop

880
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 13: and tested, so I think it'll be great for the

881
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 13: entire industry.

882
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 7: Yeah, and it seems like some of the car makers

883
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 7: are getting on board with that certainly. I mean the

884
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 7: question I have about mobile charging, what's the outlook, because

885
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 7: we do expect to see an infrastructure around these mobile

886
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 7: charging stations, grounded mobile charging stations grow substantially over the

887
00:48:55,040 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 7: next couple of years. Can mobile charging really play into that?

888
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 7: That's you know, there's ultimately hopefully going to be more infrastructure.

889
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 13: Absolutely, So when you think about it, mobile charging will

890
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 13: always be able to scale faster than infrastructure. Right now,

891
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 13: if we decided, you know, spark charging, Bloomberg said, hey,

892
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 13: we want to put a charging station in the ground,

893
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 13: a DC fast charging station in the ground, it's going

894
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 13: to take anywhere from eighteen months on the low end

895
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 13: to as high as what we're hearing is four to

896
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 13: five years on the high end. And that means that

897
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 13: if you really want to have infrastructure at scale, the

898
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,879
Speaker 13: only real way to do that is through mobile. So

899
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 13: mobile will always be able to scale faster, charge more cars,

900
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 13: charge more cars in geographical areas that a lot of

901
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 13: fixed infrastructure just can't reach. And so as the EV

902
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 13: industry continues to grow, it will inevitably have to rely

903
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 13: on mobile charging to do so. The fixed infrastructure will

904
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 13: never be able to keep up with the amount of

905
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 13: cars that are being sold on a daily basis, and

906
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 13: so it's spark charge look at that and we say, okay, well,

907
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 13: we're definitely going to install charging stations, but there's going

908
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 13: to be applications where installing one or two or five

909
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 13: charging stations cannot meet the demand of that area, and

910
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 13: mobile charging is the only option that can come in

911
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 13: there take over charge those cars on a daily basis

912
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 13: offer a seamless experience that those just fixed charging stations cannot.

913
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 13: And we're seeing that right now. We're on track. Over

914
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 13: the past six months or basically year to date, we've

915
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 13: onboarded more fleets more EV companies than a lot of

916
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 13: fixed charging stations have over their five to ten year

917
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 13: lifespan in the business. So the industry is definitely moving

918
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 13: towards mobile and definitely loving the fact that mobile is

919
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 13: seamless and easy, easy to use.

920
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, so let's say I rent any EV

921
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 3: I'm on vacation, I'm taking a road trip for some reason,

922
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 3: and I end up in a little bit of a

923
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 3: middle of nowhere situation. I'm not near a charger. Do

924
00:50:55,360 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 3: I call a Spark charge person to get access to you?

925
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 3: You're on the road? Mobile charging? Is that something that's

926
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 3: in the cards for you guys, some like an on

927
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 3: demand service to that degree.

928
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 13: Absolutely, In fact, it's already in the works. If you

929
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 13: rent a car through Hurts, if you run out, or

930
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 13: if you feel as though you're even getting low, they

931
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 13: will actually be able to dispatch one of our mobile

932
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 13: charging units to you so that we can charge your

933
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 13: car if you're sitting outside of the hotel, if you're

934
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 13: on the side of the road. So we're already seeing

935
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 13: applications like that being put into effect. In fact, that

936
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 13: program has been up and running, I believe for the

937
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 13: past couple of months. Yeah, and it's gotten.

938
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 3: But we still have the issue of impatience, like I

939
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 3: am never gonna sit on the side of the road

940
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 3: for two hours or more while my car is charge

941
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 3: even if you had to, I would just I would.

942
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 3: I would not want to rent any evy because of that.

943
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 3: And maybe that's me being a bad consumer, but that's

944
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 3: just the truth. How are you hedging against that issue

945
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 3: when it comes to consumer behavior in our final thirty

946
00:51:58,200 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 3: seconds here.

947
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 13: Absolutely, so the good news is that you wouldn't have

948
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 13: to wait for those two hours. In fact, in most areas,

949
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 13: especially both metro cities and areas that we service, our

950
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 13: SLA is actually close to sixty to seventy five minutes.

951
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 13: And then we use DC fast chargers, so when we

952
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,879
Speaker 13: show up, we're not trickle charging your car. We're DC

953
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 13: fast charging your car at a rate of up to

954
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 13: one hundred and twenty five sometimes one hundred and fifty kW,

955
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 13: so we can actually get you off the side of

956
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 13: the road once we show up in under ten minutes,

957
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:28,919
Speaker 13: and you're back to enjoying your day. So no two

958
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 13: hour wait, no being stuck on the side of the road.

959
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,720
Speaker 13: We're in, We're out. We're getting you back to enjoying

960
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 13: your electric vehicle.

961
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 7: Maddie, could you stand that I still thinking out?

962
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know, but it's a really

963
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 3: a great look at the space. Josh, Thank you so much.

964
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 3: Josh Aviv there with spark Charge.

965
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:50,839
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

966
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

967
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller I'm on Twitter

968
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen.

969
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 12: And I'm Paul Sweeney.

970
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 2: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you

971
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,959
Speaker 2: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio