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Speaker 1: They're happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. Let me give you a quick little rundown

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Speaker 1: of what to expect in today's full episode. I will

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Speaker 1: have an answer to the question that I get more

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Speaker 1: often than any other will the mid terms happen? But

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Speaker 1: I want to explain it in such a way that

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Speaker 1: kind of builds off of what we talked about on Monday.

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Speaker 1: I will get to that in a minute. So going

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Speaker 1: to have my top five list, and this one has

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Speaker 1: to do with thought. I'm calling Project twenty thirty two

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Speaker 1: for the Democratic Party. I'll just leave that little tease

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Speaker 1: at that, and you'll get an idea of where I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go with my top five list on that,

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Speaker 1: and of course we'll take some questions and go from there.

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Speaker 1: All right, So let's go back to the to this exercise.

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Speaker 1: I want to do it, and it wants to I

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Speaker 1: want to build on the story we talked about on Monday,

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Speaker 1: but try to explain why why it's disappearing, and I'm

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Speaker 1: going to lament why it's disappearing because I don't think

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Speaker 1: it should be disappearing, and try to sort of help

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Speaker 1: you discern, you know, which one of these alarming stories.

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Speaker 1: How much worry about Trump's alarming rhetoric versus his alarming deeds.

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Speaker 1: So look, if you listen to Money's episode, you know

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Speaker 1: I spent a good chunk of time slowing things down,

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Speaker 1: walking through a story that I think is easy to

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Speaker 1: miss in this current information ecosystem. I knew that this

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Speaker 1: didn't have easy visuals to show bells and whistles, But

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Speaker 1: what I really believe is that this is the worst

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Speaker 1: sort of this is the worst corruption scandal we've ever

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Speaker 1: had involving an American president. It's bigger than teapot doma

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Speaker 1: bigger than Watergate. And I know, because we're so numb

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Speaker 1: to Trump's transactionalism, we just don't see it, right. But

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Speaker 1: that's why I wanted to walk through the details very deliberately,

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Speaker 1: because it's incredibly important.

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Speaker 2: And it was.

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Speaker 1: Of course, I'm referring to the Wall Street Journal story,

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Speaker 1: the report about how Sovereign Wealth Fund of UAE investments

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Speaker 1: into a crypto company that really wasn't going anywhere for

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Speaker 1: Trump that suddenly became relevant. It led to a change

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Speaker 1: in America in the States of America's policy on AI

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Speaker 1: and chips, and of course led to a pardon of

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Speaker 1: a very controversial figure in the crypto world. And all

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Speaker 1: of it happening while Trump was receiving hundreds of millions

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Speaker 1: of dollars in cash Trump.

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Speaker 2: And his family.

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Speaker 1: Now, the story didn't have dramatic visuals, and it wasn't

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Speaker 1: easy to villainize somebody in a moment. It was a

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Speaker 1: dense it was. It's a story that requires some patience.

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Speaker 2: In some ways.

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Speaker 1: As I said, right, you need a you need to

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Speaker 1: either the Whiteboard on a Beautiful Mind or clar Danes

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Speaker 1: and Homeland to sort of see how everything is connected.

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Speaker 1: And I really believe that it was the most important

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Speaker 1: story of the weekend and really something that that should

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Speaker 1: be seen. You know that every congressional reporter should be

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Speaker 1: asking every member of Congress about it, right, that type

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Speaker 1: of story to sort of get Congress off its ass

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Speaker 1: and start worrying about whether presidents are following the Constitution.

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Speaker 1: But then the rest of the Then the rest of

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Speaker 1: Monday happened.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: You had the Dan Bongino podcast that the President did

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Speaker 1: where he mused about federalizing elections, which, of course that

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Speaker 1: quick comment coupled with the video footage of the bizarre

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Speaker 1: Telsea Gabbard leven FBI rate of Fulton County in Atlanta

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Speaker 1: with the twenty twenty ballots, and boom, right, you instantly

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Speaker 1: had a bit viral of a feeding frenzy on a

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Speaker 1: specific story.

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Speaker 2: You know, by.

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Speaker 1: Tuesday morning, you wake up and it's Kennedy Senator has

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Speaker 1: been Kennedy Center. He's just canceled it, shutting it down

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Speaker 1: for two years. Again, a shiny metal object story became

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Speaker 1: the lead of the day, and oh, by the way,

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Speaker 1: the government was shut down, so we had to reopen

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Speaker 1: that and all of it, shoving what is the perhaps

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Speaker 1: the biggest scandal in American history further and further and

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Speaker 1: further down the information ecosystem ladder. And of course, the

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Speaker 1: sudden burst of rhetorical crazy from Trump involving the midterms

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Speaker 1: led to a whole bunch of questions that I regularly

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Speaker 1: get from both listeners, viewers, and friends and family starting

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Speaker 1: to panic, you know, is is he going to cancel

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Speaker 1: the midterms? And it always leads to this, because how

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Speaker 1: anxious should we all be right now? And you know

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Speaker 1: you can and I get it right? Are things collapsing?

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Speaker 1: Is this different? Is Trump actually serious this time? What

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Speaker 1: guardrails are left that could stop him on this? So

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Speaker 1: here's what I want to do. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: hype your anxiety, and I don't want to dismiss it either.

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Speaker 1: What I want to try to do is organize it,

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Speaker 1: because one of the biggest mistakes we make in moments

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Speaker 1: like this is confusing volume with importance and mistaking what

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Speaker 1: feels scariest for what's actually doing the most damage. It

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Speaker 1: goes to the original trope with Trump, you know, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, which is you know, do you take them

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Speaker 1: literally or seriously or both?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: And in this case, what I would say is should

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Speaker 1: you worry about what he's saying or should you worry about.

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Speaker 2: What he's doing?

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Speaker 1: Now, of course I would argue the answer is yes

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Speaker 1: to everything. And that's what we're going to get to.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the story that everyone understands. Immediately,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump goes on a podcast muses again about federalizing elections,

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Speaker 1: which of course you know, reminds people of him musing

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Speaker 1: about just I wish I could cancel the midterms, and

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Speaker 1: almost simultaneously, right when you play that, you have your

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Speaker 1: file footage, right, so if you see this on video,

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Speaker 1: you could just show the weird Tulsa Gabert thing and

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Speaker 1: the striking images out of Georgia of federal agents executing

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Speaker 1: a raid connected to election materials from twenty twenty. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're at nearly six years later. We've had multiple elections

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Speaker 1: in Fulton County ever since. I mean, I sort of

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Speaker 1: look at what he's doing is laughable. I think it's silly,

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Speaker 1: but it's also very serious. Right, we know he's desperate

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Speaker 1: to continue to sell this lie that he somehow was

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Speaker 1: illegitimately thrown out of office in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: So Trump talks.

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Speaker 1: About overwriting elections, and then all of a sudden, you

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Speaker 1: see federal agents seizing ballots. Right, the great fear that

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Speaker 1: so many people have. So you don't need a constitutional

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Speaker 1: law degree to fill your stomach drop. That is scary.

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Speaker 1: Rhetoric plus visuals, threat plus spectacle. It's an easy story

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Speaker 1: to tell. It fits in a tweet, it fits in

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Speaker 1: a cairn, and it fits in your nervous system, and

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Speaker 1: it rides the algorithm. Now, let me be very clear.

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Speaker 1: The rhetoric is not harmless. This isn't normal, and it

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be normalized. Election interference talk is as damaging as

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Speaker 1: election interference itself, and using federal power to intimidate state

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Speaker 1: workers matters a great deal.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want to I'm.

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Speaker 1: Not trying to minimize what he has said or what

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Speaker 1: he has done. But here's what I want. I want

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Speaker 1: you to understand, and I want to make this clear

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Speaker 1: because it's essential. What feels existential is not always what's

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Speaker 1: most consequential. So these two events, the rhetoric and the raid,

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Speaker 1: landed together. They functioned together. They were consumed as one

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Speaker 1: narrative event. It almost doesn't matter which technically came first, right,

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Speaker 1: the raid itself or his rhetoric to Bongino, the meaning

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Speaker 1: formed through proximity and imaging. Right, that's how political narratives

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Speaker 1: work now, thanks to these algorithms, thanks to these big

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Speaker 1: tech companies that control the flow of information that you

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Speaker 1: and I get to see. It isn't done through chronology

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Speaker 1: or nuanced but through what shows up next on your screen.

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Speaker 1: And that's why this story dominates. It feels like democracy

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Speaker 1: itself is on the line, and it animates a lot

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Speaker 1: of people. But feeling existential isn't the same thing as

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Speaker 1: actually being the thing that does the most lasting damage. Now,

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Speaker 1: let me talk about the Kennedy Center here. First glance,

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Speaker 1: Trump's moved to effectively just shut down the Kennedy Center

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Speaker 1: unilaterally under the guise of renovations. I see why some

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Speaker 1: see it as cultural authoritarianism, and symbolically, sure, it's pretty ugly,

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Speaker 1: and if it's a broader pattern of treating institutions as

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Speaker 1: enemies and loyalty tests. But then the context of all

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Speaker 1: this matters, right, and I think it tells us something

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Speaker 1: pretty important about how Trump actually operates. So why did

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Speaker 1: he shut this down? This wasn't a first strike, This

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Speaker 1: was a reaction. He was being humiliated right. Artists were

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Speaker 1: pulling out, performers were canceling, events were unraveling quietly but visibly.

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Speaker 1: The reputational damage was happening big time for Trump. Right

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Speaker 1: the minute Trump touched the Kennedy Center got involved. Everybody

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Speaker 1: wanted out. The opera wanted out. People, every classical, anybody

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Speaker 1: with any level of integrity wanted in. The art community

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Speaker 1: wanted out. And it was humiliating the Kennedy Center. It

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Speaker 1: was humiliating Trump. Right. So Trump wasn't dominating the story.

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Speaker 1: He was losing control of it. So what does he do?

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Speaker 1: This is a classic Trump He flips the script. Instead

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Speaker 1: of having to deal with they're rejecting me, which is

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Speaker 1: what they are doing, it becomes I shut it down,

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Speaker 1: and instead of absorbing a thousand small acts of descent,

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Speaker 1: he creates one big spectacle. Instead of reputational damage accumulating quietly,

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Speaker 1: he centralizes the conflict and reframes it as Trump versus

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Speaker 1: the culture. Right, it's just simple spin, right, And notice

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Speaker 1: what happens when he does that, right, The story becomes

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Speaker 1: about Trump's power, Trump's move Trump's dominance.

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Speaker 2: Can he do it? Is it legal?

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Speaker 1: The stories of the cancelations fade, the accountability dissipates, and

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Speaker 1: the noise replaces the consequence. This matters because it's the

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Speaker 1: same dynamic we're seeing everywhere else, which brings me back

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Speaker 1: to Monday.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: While George and the Kennedy Center sucked all the oxygen

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Speaker 1: out of the room early part of this week, the

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Speaker 1: story I walked through earlier in the week is already fading.

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Speaker 1: And that should worry us more because that story, the

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Speaker 1: fact that Donald Trump has turned America into a kleptocracy

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Speaker 1: for his personal enrichment, that's the story that ought to

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Speaker 1: be alarming everybody because he's already doing it, and he's

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Speaker 1: already done it. He has taken these payments, he has

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Speaker 1: enriched himself. This isn't he might he's thinking about. He's doing.

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Speaker 1: This is stuff he's done.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: Foreign sovereign wealth flowing into Trump linked enterprises, policy decisions,

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Speaker 1: especially around AI chips and crypto, suddenly aligning with the

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Speaker 1: private financial financial upside, pardons, permission, an access, all moving

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Speaker 1: in parallel, And as I said, the journal never says

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Speaker 1: it was a quid pro quo. But all you have

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Speaker 1: to do is look right. The modern corruption doesn't look

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Speaker 1: like a brown paper bag anymore. It looks like timing,

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Speaker 1: proximity and mutual benefit. Each step defensible on its own

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Speaker 1: and technically legal in some sort of byzantine way of

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Speaker 1: looking at it, but it is damning when taken together,

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Speaker 1: and it is illegal when you realize it's being done

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Speaker 1: by the president of the United States, and violation of

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Speaker 1: the Constitution. And here's the moment that really sort of

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Speaker 1: crystallized all this for me. So on Tuesday morning, I

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Speaker 1: was scanning my usual mountain of newsletters right bias. You know,

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Speaker 1: lots of good ones out there, lots of mediocre ones,

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Speaker 1: but I read a lot of them good faith actors,

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Speaker 1: smart people, outlets that are deeply focused on democratic norms.

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Speaker 1: And the foreign policy story was gone from a couple

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Speaker 1: of them that I was shocked to see it gone

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Speaker 1: on from. But the election rhetoric that was everywhere, the

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Speaker 1: midterm anxiety that was dominant. I mean, my friend Bill Crystal,

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Speaker 1: who does the Morning Shots newsletter for the Bullwork on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: not a single mention of this Wall Street Journal story anymore. Look,

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Speaker 1: they did a lot on Monday, but they were obsessed

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Speaker 1: with the midterm issue. Ditto with playbook had nothing on

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Speaker 1: that had a slew on the midterm issue. We all

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Speaker 1: know how this stuff, right. Some stuff travels more, some

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Speaker 1: stuff rides the algorithm right, and the way the independent

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Speaker 1: media landscape works, a lot of editorial folks examine what's

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Speaker 1: getting attention what isn't, and they may lean more heavily

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Speaker 1: on the stories that are getting more traction, even if

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Speaker 1: there are other stories that are arguably more important. And

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Speaker 1: I'm not calling it. I don't think that's bad faith.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's corruption. But it is sort of

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Speaker 1: how our information ecosystem is kind of doing exactly what

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Speaker 1: it's designed to do. It rewards stories that are visually

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Speaker 1: immediate and emotionally legible and quietly pushes aside stories that

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Speaker 1: are technical, slow and complicated it and might not be

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Speaker 1: as gripping to as large enough of an audience. And

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Speaker 1: that's exactly why the story of the creation of the

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Speaker 1: American kleptocracy is much more dangerous. So it brings me

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Speaker 1: back to the anxiety question and something I want to

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Speaker 1: be very clear about. As alarmed as we all are

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Speaker 1: by some of Trump's rhetoric and by the sense that

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Speaker 1: there are no guardrails left. The truth is a bit

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Speaker 1: more complicated, because what's interesting is every time we lament

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Speaker 1: this idea that there are no guardrails, you start to

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Speaker 1: see that some of them do work, not all of them,

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Speaker 1: not consistently, but some of them some of the time.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting for us to realize when they do

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Speaker 1: work and when they don't work, and understanding which ones

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Speaker 1: work and why is the difference, I think, between whether

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Speaker 1: you should panic and whether you should view it as

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Speaker 1: some sort of strategy. So let me give you two examples. First,

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Speaker 1: there's Minneapolis after the killing of two Americans, and let's

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Speaker 1: just say it took two American deaths for Trump to

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Speaker 1: do this. Trump did something almost never does rhetorically.

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Speaker 2: He back down.

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Speaker 1: He sat down with Senate Democrats, he negotiated, He accepted

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Speaker 1: the premise that they were going to shut down the

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Speaker 1: government if he didn't negotiate constraints on ice.

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Speaker 2: And he said, okay, right.

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Speaker 1: Here's a guy that his critics consistently say, you know,

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Speaker 1: doesn't listen to anything. There's no and he did on

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Speaker 1: this one. So why was it because of norms? No,

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Speaker 1: we know he doesn't care about norms. Was it because

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Speaker 1: someone made a better constitutional argument to him, sorry? Or

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Speaker 1: was it because the political costs suddenly became undeniable even

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Speaker 1: for Trump? Right, public opinion has shifted dramatically on this issue.

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Speaker 1: Republicans got nervous. The backlash wasn't abstract anymore, and it

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Speaker 1: wasn't just coming from Democrats that owned the Libs. It

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Speaker 1: was measurable, and Trump does respond to measurable pain, at

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Speaker 1: least political pain in poling.

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Speaker 2: Look at the FED.

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Speaker 1: We heard all the noise, the threats, the posturing, and

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Speaker 1: then the choice came down to it. He picked Kevin Walsh, conventional,

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Speaker 1: even market reassuring pick. He didn't pick a sickophan, a

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Speaker 1: guy like Kevin Hassett, who might have been somebody who

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Speaker 1: would have just yes, you know, been a yes man

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Speaker 1: for whatever Trump wanted on interest rates. So why did

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Speaker 1: he do that? Well, one guardrail. He does seem to

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Speaker 1: care about our markets, right, and he cares about what

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Speaker 1: some donors think, his donors, and he certainly cares about

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Speaker 1: what the elites that he interacts with think. So the

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Speaker 1: guardrail wasn't the idea of FED independence. It was the

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Speaker 1: risk of immediate, tangible financial consequences for him and his friends.

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Speaker 1: So it's an interesting pattern that you've watched over. It's like,

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Speaker 1: every once in a while he responds to a guardrail,

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Speaker 1: but it's never that for the reason you want him

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Speaker 1: to respond to a guardrail. It's for usually some sort

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Speaker 1: of personal cost and personal nervousness. So it does seem

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Speaker 1: as if Trump accepts pushback when when three conditions are met. First,

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Speaker 1: the cost is immediate, it's not theoretical, it's not long term,

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Speaker 1: it's immediate. Second, the backlash is something he sees poll numbers,

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Speaker 1: market drops, donor anger, maybe even a ratings issue. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's not an editorial, it's not a whole bunch of statements, right.

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Speaker 1: And if the pressure is across the board, right, lots

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Speaker 1: of people and lots of different parts of his life going, hey,

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Speaker 1: are you sure about this?

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Speaker 2: Are you sure about this? Are you sure about this? Right?

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Speaker 1: It's why he seemed to back down a bit on Minneapolis.

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Speaker 1: And I know some of you're going to say he

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Speaker 1: hasn't back down that much, But for Trump, he's back down.

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Speaker 2: Right. What happened?

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Speaker 1: You had Republicans saying, oh, whoall this went too far.

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Speaker 2: The same with the FED.

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Speaker 1: But all those reasons are also explained why it's so

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Speaker 1: hard for the formn policy monetization story to get legs.

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Speaker 1: Because it fails those three tests, the costs are delayed.

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Speaker 1: We won't see the impact of selling out American form policy,

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Speaker 1: creating loopholes for China to catch up. We won't know

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Speaker 1: this until after it's too late. The consequences are on

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Speaker 1: a spreadsheet, and none of us like to read spreadsheets.

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Speaker 1: And of course the backlash is a bit fragmented. There's

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Speaker 1: no market crash, there's no single dramatic moment, there's no

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Speaker 1: image on cable news. Just a slow monetization of power,

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Speaker 1: and we see it. We see it almost every week

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Speaker 1: when he signs, when he releases the list of people

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Speaker 1: he's and you start to go through it and you

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Speaker 1: realize most of them were represented by friends of Trump,

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Speaker 1: and he just was monetizing, helping them win fees from

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Speaker 1: these rich crooks. And it also explains why I'm less

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Speaker 1: worried about Trump's election rhetoric than i am about what

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Speaker 1: he's doing in form policing. Elections in the United States

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Speaker 1: are decentralized by design, States run them counties, administer. The

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Speaker 1: diffusion isn't a weakness, it's actually a firewall.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Trump doesn't control it. Republicans quietly know he can't override

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Speaker 1: it without detonating their own power. They can't do it.

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Speaker 1: They'd have to pass Acts of Congress. There's so many

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Speaker 1: different ways in order to make this happen. It's for

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Speaker 1: it to happen, the Republican Republic would essentially have to collapse.

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Speaker 1: We'd have to suspend the Constitution, and we're not and

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have that kind of power. Ironically, I think politically,

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Speaker 1: every time Trump muses about interfering with elections, he doesn't

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Speaker 1: suppress turnout, which I know is a fear some people have.

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Speaker 2: He fuels it.

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Speaker 1: He energizes opposition voters, he repels swing voters who just

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Speaker 1: want to get rid of the chaos, and he deepened

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Speaker 1: cynicism among his own base. So if you were trying

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Speaker 1: to design the dumbest possible strategy heading into the midterm election,

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Speaker 1: you'd be hard pressed to beat the one Trump is

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Speaker 1: doing right now. Talk about if you're on the Democratic

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Speaker 1: side of the aisle, you should want him talking about this.

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Speaker 1: All it does is make it saved you money on

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Speaker 1: get out the vote. Donald Trump is going to get

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Speaker 1: your base out to vote. And then he's sending a

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Speaker 1: message that he thinks the whole thing is rigged anyway,

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Speaker 1: and he's sending a message to his own base that,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe he's sort of winking and nodding, don't worry,

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Speaker 1: I'll rig it. So it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to show up.

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Speaker 1: So, yes, the rhetoric's extraordinarily dangerous and I don't want

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Speaker 1: to miss it, but it is institutionally constrained and politically

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Speaker 1: incredibly self defeating. That's not the case with this foreign

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Speaker 1: policy story. Congress is supposed to be the check here.

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Speaker 1: The voters are never going to be the check.

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Speaker 2: On this story.

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Speaker 1: It's going to take them a while to get it.

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Speaker 1: This Congress has shown no interest in investigating the leader of

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Speaker 1: their own party, so that story is just going to

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Speaker 1: keep going. He's going to keep selling foreign policy decisions

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Speaker 1: to the highest bidder. Sometimes he'll do it right out

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Speaker 1: in the open. Sometimes they'll do it quietly. I mean

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Speaker 1: times it feels like Venezuela, and the oil is he's

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Speaker 1: just doing it right out in the open. Most of

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Speaker 1: this he'll do out of view. So The point is this, No,

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Speaker 1: I don't think the country's collapsing tomorrow, and no, I

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Speaker 1: don't think elections are going to get canceled twenty six,

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Speaker 1: But I do think we're watching something more subtle and

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Speaker 1: more corrosive. Democracies don't usually fall from who's they actually erode.

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Speaker 1: They look more like what happened, what's happening in Turkey,

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Speaker 1: what's happening in Hungary. They erode when corruption becomes complicated, normalized,

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Speaker 1: and easier to ignore than the latest outrage, cultural outrage.

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Speaker 2: You know, bad bunny.

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Speaker 1: You know, pay attention to bad Bunny, but don't pay

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Speaker 1: attention to the selling out of American foreign policy. So

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Speaker 1: what Trump does say threatens democracy symbolically, but what Trump

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Speaker 1: does corrodes it materially. And our information ecosystem, whether it

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Speaker 1: intends to or not, keep steering us towards the loudest,

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Speaker 1: scariest stories while the most consequential ones fade in the background.

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Speaker 1: That's the real danger. It's not the panic, it's not

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Speaker 1: the calm. It's miss placed attention and mist placed concern.

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Speaker 1: There used to be a publication out there that once

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Speaker 1: reminded us democracy dies in darkness, But sometimes that darkness

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Speaker 1: is also noisy, and the democracy can die in a

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432
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Speaker 1: Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order.

433
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: So go to get sold dot Com use the promo

434
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: code toodcast. Don't forget that code. That's get sold dot

435
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 1: Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. I'm going

436
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: to the Census and a little bit of a riff

437
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 1: as there's some new Sensus updates went around in there

438
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: a new round of panic among Democrats and liberals about

439
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: how the electoral college map in twenty thirty two after

440
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: the twenty thirty census is going to become a disaster

441
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: for the Democrats because the power shift essentially, you know,

442
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 1: the Democrats. You know, had Kamala Harris simply carried Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

443
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: and Michigan in addition all the other states she carried,

444
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: she'd have been right at two hundred and seventy by

445
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two. The same configuration of states would have

446
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: only gotten her to two hundred and fifty nine electoral votes.

447
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: So basically, Democrats in the next census are going to

448
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 1: lose a dozen base electoral votes, which means the Republican

449
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: floor is going to go up about a dozen votes.

450
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 1: Just to give you some technical numbers, Essentially, you've got

451
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: Republican states Florida, Texas, Idaho, Utah that collectively are going

452
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: to net anywhere from say ten to twelve congressional districts,

453
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: which means electoral votes. And then you will have a

454
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: bunch of losses in the blue based states. Right, California

455
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 1: in New York collectively are going to lose eight to nine.

456
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: Throw in Illinois's going to lose another two, and then

457
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: you're going to lose one each from Oregon and Minnesota.

458
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 1: Never mind some of the swing states that you're gonna

459
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: see somerom shifts in. Right, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin each

460
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: lose one, but North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia will each

461
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 1: gain one. So in that sense, the swing states the

462
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,239
Speaker 1: numbers are going to be the same, but it is

463
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 1: going to mean that the Blue wall is not going

464
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 1: to be the important thing. It's the Sunbelt purple wall

465
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 1: that's going to matter. More of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona

466
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: are going to be at least as important, if not

467
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: more important, than the trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, in Michigan.

468
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: But that's just if you're sitting there, assuming the map

469
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: is what it is. Political parties are supposed to be

470
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: dynamic organizations, and they, based on investments, can can try

471
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: to take a base state from the other party and

472
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: turn it into a swing state. Take a swing state

473
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 1: and try to turn it into a base state.

474
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 2: Right.

475
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: Virginia and Colorado Democrats successfully took what were swing states

476
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: and turn them into base states. Arguably, Republicans Florida and

477
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 1: Ohio took what was swing states and turned them into

478
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: base states.

479
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 2: Right, So.

480
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 1: Political parties, right, you've got right Now, Republicans would love

481
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: to take a swing state like Minnesota and see or

482
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: a lean blue state like Minnesota and see if they

483
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: can turn it into a swing state. Democrats have been

484
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: amusing about the idea of taking Texas and making it

485
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: a swing state, but now the project is more acute

486
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: than ever for the Democrats. Now, look, I'm going to

487
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: make one tangent real quick because those of you that

488
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: read me closely and listen to me closely. Know, I'm

489
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: obsessed that the easiest way to fix this electoral You

490
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: know that one of the ways we need to fix

491
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: the electoral college unfairness is to not have a constitutional

492
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: amendment but simply expand the House to the size that

493
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: the founders intended it to be. Right, it is no

494
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: longer a representative democracy we have now. We now have

495
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: every congressional districts the size of a major city, with

496
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: about eight hundred thousand. They're too big, They don't they

497
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: are not representative of communities of interest anymore. They're simply

498
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 1: dominated by the most powerful faction within each of these

499
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: congressional districts, and so they're not doing what the founders intended.

500
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: The House of Representatives was supposed to expand with the

501
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: population of the country, and they did this every decade

502
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: until nineteen twenty when there was a dispute between the

503
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: two parties and then they locked it in at four

504
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five. That is now why you feel

505
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: like you live in a congressional district, likely where you

506
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: feel like your member of Congress doesn't really represent the

507
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: day strict. They either represent to liberal part of the

508
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: of the district over they sort of overrepresent the liberal

509
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: part or overrepresent the conservative part. But there's but it

510
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like anybody represents right the district as a whole.

511
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: So I want to set that tangent aside. So if

512
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: you're the DNC and you're and you have leadership that

513
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: is thinking beyond tomorrow, and I don't know if that's

514
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: the case, I say it. I'm not trying to be snarky,

515
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: but you know, leaders of political parties are like general

516
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: managers for sports teams. The fan base expects immediate results.

517
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: They are not interested in you building a foundation that

518
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: pays dividends in eight years, because that general manager won't

519
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: even be there in eight years, just like that political

520
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: party leader won't be there in eight years. So it

521
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: is the incentive structures are messed up. But that doesn't

522
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: mean there aren't other outside entities that should be thinking

523
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: about the following, which is, if the Democrats are suddenly

524
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: have an electoral college majority problem, then they need to

525
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: design what I call a project twenty to thirty two

526
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: and decide they've got to put eight to ten They've

527
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: got to invest in eight to ten states, and about

528
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: half of them are swing states that they've got to

529
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:24,959
Speaker 1: attempt to make more reliably blue and or red states

530
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: that they can put into the competitive category. They have

531
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: got to expand the map, even though it doesn't look

532
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: obvious that they can expand the map, so that long

533
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: wind up is designed. So if project with twenty thirty

534
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: two's presidential election in mind, with the new map that

535
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: we'll have, then I give you the top five list

536
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: of states that the Democrats should be targeting now in

537
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 1: an effort to keep them competitive on in the electoral

538
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: college going forward. Top top because the political power that

539
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: California and New York, that sort of floor of support

540
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: that at times made it seem like the electoral college,

541
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: and this is something that always is cyclical. At times

542
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: it looks like there's an advantage to the Democrats, at

543
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 1: times looks like there's advantage to Republicans. Really it usually

544
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 1: is who's winning the middle more often, right is, and

545
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: who's got the larger base, And right now Republicans have

546
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: a slightly larger base than the Democrats. So with that

547
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: in mind, I'm going to give you my top five

548
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: lists of states that the Democrats have to invest in

549
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: either because they need to try to make that state

550
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: more reliably competitive, or they need to try to take

551
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: a state and make it competitive.

552
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: In the first place.

553
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: So number one on the list is North Carolina. North

554
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 1: Carolina by twenty thirty two is likely to be up

555
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: to seventeen electoral votes. It's arguably should you know, it

556
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: is trending the way we've seen with Georgia trending. It

557
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: is younger, it's a bit more diverse, but it hadn't

558
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: quite tipped yet, right, But it is one of the

559
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: highest education to growth ratios in the state. Right, it's

560
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: seven percent higher education than some of its neighbors. So

561
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 1: you know, here they've they've got Virginia as a light

562
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: blue state. Georgia is a model here. But North Carolina

563
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: they have multiple markets. Charlotte, Raleigh, Ashville can serve as

564
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: anchors there. But the bottom line is they've they've acted

565
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: while they are while they're competitive in North Carolina, they

566
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: usually come up short. Right, It's sort of what Minnesota

567
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 1: has been to the Republicans. And yes, Barack Obama carried

568
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 1: North Carolina once and in that one year they won

569
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: a Senate seat. And occasionally they win Senate seats just

570
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: like Republicans occasionally win statewide. In Minnesota, there seems to

571
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: be a hard cap of about forty eight percent in

572
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: most federal elections. Dido in Minnesota for the Republicans. Ditto

573
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: for that in North Carolina. They've got to change that.

574
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: And North Carolina has been a state that they you know,

575
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: it's always like, was on the periphery of targeting in

576
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: the swing state. Yeah, we're going to target North Carolina

577
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: the same way they would say, yeah, we might target

578
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 1: Florida back in twenty twelve and twenty sixteen, and sometimes

579
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: they didn't.

580
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 2: Sometimes they didn't.

581
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: Now they've got to treat North Carolina the same way

582
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 1: they treat Wisconsin and Michigan. It's got to be that

583
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: that sort of you know, it's got to be treated

584
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: on another level. So that's number one North Carolina. In

585
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: some ways, I don't know if a Democrat's going to

586
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: get elected president without carrying North Carolina and Georgia. At

587
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 1: the end of the day, you know, when you start

588
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: to look at this in the way trend's going in

589
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 1: the demographic makeup of the Democratic Party versus what we're

590
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: seeing in the Republican Party aging in smaller populations, I

591
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,439
Speaker 1: suspect over time Pennsylvania, Wisconsin's going to start drifting right,

592
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 1: which means Democrats have to figure out how to turn Georgia, Arizona,

593
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: and North Carolina collectively into the new trio into their

594
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: You know, that's going to be the new wall, right.

595
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: It's either a red wall for the Republicans that Democrats

596
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: can't penetrate, or it becomes the building blocks of a

597
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: Sunbelt blue wall. But either way, the anchor of it

598
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: is likely North Carolina number two on that list. I

599
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 1: think of targeting is a bit of a reach state,

600
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: but it's Texas Texas more than Florida right now. It's

601
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: I think the trend lines in Florida for some demographic

602
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: reasons with the Latino population. In some ways, I think

603
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: Hispanics are more gettable for Democrats in Texas than Hispanics

604
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: are in Florida. They're more swing voter, swingy swing votery

605
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 1: in Texas than they are in South Florida. So I

606
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: think that when you start to just look at the numbers,

607
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: they're there. Texas is just getting a lot of new

608
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 1: residents and any just like how Florida transitioned in the

609
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: nineties from being a fairly reliable Republican state to becoming

610
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: a swing state. First Clinton carried it in ninety six,

611
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: and then of course it became the single most important

612
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 1: state in two thousand, in two thousand and four. That's

613
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: the sort of reasoning in rationale why Texas has to

614
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: be a focal point. And the fact is, rhetorically the

615
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: Democrats have talked about Texas for a long time. They've

616
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: never actually put their money where their mouth is. Maybe

617
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: this year's Senate race, if it's indeed competitive, if Ken

618
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: Paxton is the Republican nominee, that jump starts interest in it.

619
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: But I would argue regardless, they have to treat Texas

620
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 1: like a swing state even when it's not, in order

621
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 1: to get that state comfortable supporting a Democrat by twenty

622
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 1: thirty two. It's not going to happen overnight. And that's

623
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: why it's sort of like again, I go back, I have.

624
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: You know, it is hard to get political parties to

625
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 1: think more than a luncheon cycle ahead. That's not how

626
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 1: the incentives work. But when thinking this far in advance,

627
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: that's why Texas arguably is number two. Because it's going

628
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: to be very expensive, and it's going to be and

629
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:08,479
Speaker 1: you just got.

630
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 2: To plot along.

631
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: Number three on my list is the state that I

632
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 1: talk about all the time that it's a head scratcher

633
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: to me that Democrats really don't focus on it, and

634
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: it's Kansas.

635
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: It is.

636
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: We've seen this now two different Democrat, two term Democratic

637
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: governors over the last you know, sixteen of the last

638
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: twenty four years have had Democratic governors, and they've won

639
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: due to Republican overreach, but they've also won because you've

640
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 1: seen you know, you have a growing you know, look,

641
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 1: the biggest sort of deno way to find out if

642
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: a state leans will inherently lean red or blue is

643
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: you know, the number of college grads. Well, Kansas is

644
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: one that in Kansas and Missouri are kind of going

645
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: in the opposite directions. You've got the growing suburbs of

646
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: Kansas City in Kansas that have taken have basically taken

647
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 1: what used to be a lean red district and turned

648
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,720
Speaker 1: it into a lean blue district. Both what Chaton Topeka

649
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: are growing. You've got two big state schools in Lawrence

650
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: and in Manhattan, Kansas and Kansas State. And so when

651
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: you look at the sort of formula that Democrats have

652
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 1: used to succeed in places like Wisconsin or Michigan, or

653
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 1: let's see, smaller states are like Nevada.

654
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 2: I could I could argue that Kansas looks more like that.

655
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 1: Look there, I get the sort of the historical trends

656
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: of Kansas, but Kansas is not as you know, Yes,

657
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 1: there's MAGA in Kansas, but there's sort of this Kansas

658
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 1: Republican that is different than the MAGA makeup as well.

659
00:38:55,840 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 1: Where Missouri, you know, it's funny, Missouri feels more like

660
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: a southern state and Kansas feels more like a Midwestern state.

661
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,280
Speaker 1: And Democrats, I think right now have a better shot,

662
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: particularly among white voters in the Kansas winning those folks

663
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 1: over than they do winning the white voters of Missouri

664
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: number four on the list. Very similar argument to North Carolina.

665
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 2: It's Georgia.

666
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: Georgia is a state that you know, we're going to

667
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: find out in twenty twenty six just how strong the

668
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: Democratic Party is.

669
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 2: Is this a state that just.

670
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 1: Is competitive only when they have Rafael Warnock on the ballot,

671
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: or is this a state that is going to be

672
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:38,879
Speaker 1: competitive now no matter what. And asof winning reelection would

673
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: send one signal Democrats winning the governor's mansion would send

674
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: another signal. So I think we're going to learn a

675
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,959
Speaker 1: lot about just sort of the health of the Democratic brand.

676
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: How much is the marginal success Democrats have had in

677
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: Georgia been just because of backlash to Trump or is

678
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: there is this starting to become durable. I think we're

679
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: going to learn. But no matter what, again, because the

680
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: math issue, right Georgia. When you think about how much

681
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: money and resources over the decades have gone into Michigan, Wisconsin,

682
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and number five on my list, Arizona.

683
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 2: Three of those.

684
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: Fights, they have to become just core states. Arguably now

685
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: they're as important, if not more important, than the blue

686
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 1: Wall of the Midwest. This is going to be a

687
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: red wall, a purple wall, or a blue sunbolt wall

688
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: either way.

689
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 2: So there's that.

690
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: So three states that didn't make my list that I

691
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: think deserve some investment in when you're looking at Project

692
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 1: thirty two, Iowa, Indiana, in Florida, I think all of them.

693
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 1: It's one of those where you want to get into

694
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: a position where you're competitive in those states where you

695
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 1: have enough because you need some buffers. You can't always

696
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,720
Speaker 1: have to draw this, you know, the perfect inside straight.

697
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 1: And you know, if you want to expand the map

698
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: for Senate seats, and you want to expand the map

699
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: for more governor's mansions, you've got to give yourself buffers.

700
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: And Indiana, Iowa, and Florida, in theory, all have enough

701
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 1: combinations of metro areas and suburban populations and some allergies

702
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 1: to MAGA policies that collectively, in theory, should give the

703
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: Democrats opportunity. Now, you know, it's interesting the Democrats in

704
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: this in what should be a focal point here Project

705
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two. And I'm at some point waiting for

706
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: there to be an organization that's spun off just called

707
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 1: this right, you know that some big donor decides to

708
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 1: fund and just focused on voter registration programs things like

709
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: that is when the Democrats decide what their early calendar

710
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 1: looks like. And they just over the last week greenlit

711
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 1: twelve states that plan to petition to be in the

712
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: early primary window for president antil politics. If if the

713
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: Democrats are thinking long term, they should be thinking about

714
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: these four states as this decision as an opportunity to

715
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: invest in Project twenty thirty two for them, how to

716
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: strengthen their ability to get more a few more states

717
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 1: in play expand the map, right, So I wanted to

718
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 1: look at their twelve states and see where they overlapped

719
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: with states that perhaps they need to strengthen in in

720
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 1: order to give keep themselves competitive in a presidential by

721
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two. So the twelve states they put in

722
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: out of the east, it was Delaware, New Hampshire, Out

723
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: of the midwest, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan. Out of the south, Georgia,

724
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 1: North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and out of the

725
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: west Nevada, and New Mexico. So North Caro and the

726
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: top five lists Georgia and North Carolina overlaps. You know,

727
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: I think on the you know, I've said this before

728
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 1: in the early state stuff, the bigger this day, the

729
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: more ineffective that state can be at being sort of

730
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 1: a fair fairness because with the bigger states then rewards

731
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: those with big money. And both Georgia and North Carolina

732
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: are expensive states. So while I think you could argue

733
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: this would this in theory, having them as early states,

734
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: having more Democrats campaign in them all the time could

735
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 1: serve to overtime invest them. I don't know if they're

736
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: the best states to create a level playing field for

737
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: those candidates with big money and those candidates that don't

738
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 1: have big money at the beginning. That would be the

739
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 1: two negatives, right, just very expensive states to advertise in,

740
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: but having them as early states where Democrats are just

741
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: always traveling to those to what Georgia or North Carolina. Certainly,

742
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 1: I think that is why Iowa state in the battle round,

743
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: even though demographically Iowa looks like a state that should

744
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: be darker red than it is.

745
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 2: Iowa.

746
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: Obviously, I think this is a way on the smaller

747
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: state scale. I was disappointed to see that either ca

748
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: anas didn't apply or there was no interest. I saw

749
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: that Nebraska didn't do this either. So when you look

750
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: at it, the only viable small states that applied for

751
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: the early state window for the Democratic presidential primaries, with

752
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 1: Iowa right. The other two in the midwester or Illinois

753
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 1: Michigan again too big, too expensive, will only be there

754
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 1: to help the big name candidates. It doesn't really doesn't

755
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: really work as a good early test where Iowa you

756
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 1: have to campaign in rural parts of the state in

757
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: order to win, versus Ellinois, Michigan you don't have to

758
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 1: campaign in the rural parts of the state in order

759
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: to win. The most interesting state that's on there that's

760
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 1: got advanced for consideration to be in the early state

761
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 1: window is Tennessee.

762
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 2: And I want to.

763
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: Close with Tennessee because Tennessee is a state that has

764
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 1: been a head scratcher to me. Twenty years ago. I

765
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: thought Tennessee was going to go, was going to be

766
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: a part of Georgia North Carolina. Right, you always said

767
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: Florida was the first state in the sun Belt that

768
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 1: became competitive, and then the question was, Okay, which ones

769
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: are going to go next? And if you went by

770
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: sort of socioeconomics, where we were seeing more people moving

771
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: to right, Georgia North Carolina on the list, but so

772
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 1: is Tennessee. And Tennessee is actually moved become more Republican,

773
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: not less Republican over the last twenty years. Is that

774
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 1: going to continue? Does the growth of Nashville does that

775
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: sort of the bigger it grows, the more it becomes

776
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: sort of Austin meets Las Vegas, which then creates your

777
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: sort of suburban and you just get more non sort

778
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: of cultural Southerners in your electorate. It's certainly something that

779
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: I think a lot of US election observers have been

780
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 1: waiting to see, and there's been very little evidence of it.

781
00:45:56,800 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, if this were happening Tennessee special

782
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: in December, would have would have seen a flip, while

783
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 1: we didn't see a flip. Right, it was a little

784
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: bit more competitive, but it wasn't necessarily a flip. So

785
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: you know, part of it is, you could say the

786
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: election lines. I do think Democrats have a Memphis problem

787
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: in the state. Meaning Memphis is just it's just it's

788
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: a city that is not as it's not what it

789
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 1: was thirty years ago. It feels as if and there's

790
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 1: this whether it's fair or not, this perception while it's

791
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: a Democrat run city and it's poorly run and et cetera,

792
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: et cetera. And Republicans have weaponized sort of Memphis a

793
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: long time to win elections. It's been sort of something

794
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: they've done, been sort of a you know, Memphis has

795
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: been used as sort of a code word for race.

796
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 1: But when you look at the elector in Tennessee, you know,

797
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: I know that if I if I were a strategist

798
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: over at the DNC, I'd be thinking you know, yeah,

799
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: Tennessee is a reached state. But here's a state that

800
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 1: is that's got something in common with Virginia, something in

801
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 1: common with North Carolina. You know, maybe more resources into

802
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: the state opened some doors here. I found, of all

803
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: the of all the states that made it through in

804
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: the top twelve, the one that you know, which one

805
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 1: of these is not like the other, It was Tennessee.

806
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you if you if you went back

807
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: thirty years, a lot of US election forecasters would have

808
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: said Tennessee was one of the states that we expected

809
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 1: to start to sort of I think a lot of

810
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: people saw the South sort of splitting into sort of

811
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: you know, the South more Cosmopolitans south of quote New

812
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:42,240
Speaker 1: South right, and the sort of old South, deep South,

813
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: however you want to describe it. And there was a

814
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: you know, you had sort of your your Tennessee, your

815
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 1: North Carolina, your Georgia. You're Virginia in one area, Florida

816
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: in one area, and then you're Alabama, your Mississippi, You're Louisiana,

817
00:47:56,239 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: South Carolina in another area. So it is mostly broken

818
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 1: along those lines, but not totally. In Tennessee has been interesting.

819
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 1: I know, my friend Brad Todd has a lot of

820
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: theories there. He thinks that Tennessee Republicans have benefited from

821
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 1: a lot of Midwestern refugees, if you will, sort of

822
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: Midwestern conservatives who have left the higher tax states of Ohio, Illinois,

823
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 1: Michigan and have not moved all the way south, but

824
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:31,439
Speaker 1: moved to Tennessee, a low income tax state. So he says,

825
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 1: one of the ways you notice it is if you

826
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: go in the suburbs, some of these suburban communities in

827
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,720
Speaker 1: Nashville on a fall Saturday, you don't see Tennessee flex.

828
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: He goes, you see a lot of Ohio, State, Michigan, Purdue,

829
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 1: Indiana flex. So that's been It's an interesting anecdote. I

830
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 1: think it's one worth processing. But the reality is this

831
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 1: Democrats have a major problem on their hands come twenty

832
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: thirty two, and if they start worrying about it in

833
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: twenty thirty one, it's going to be too late. So

834
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 1: if they're going to launch Project twenty thirty two, now,

835
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: let me go through it again. The five states they

836
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: should be focusing on North Carolina basically the sun Belt,

837
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: Purple Wall of North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, and then

838
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: I'd throw in Texas and Kansas. They've got to expand

839
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: their map, and then maybe you dabble in Indiana, Iowa,

840
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 1: and Florida, and then of course we'll see what they

841
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: do about Tennessee. But if the party doesn't start thinking

842
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 1: that way, they could get locked out of the presidency

843
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: for a generation. That's how dire this population shift is

844
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 1: from California, New York to Florida and Texas. Having good

845
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,800
Speaker 1: life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience.

846
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:55,959
Speaker 1: I was sixteen when my father passed away.

847
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 2: We didn't have any money.

848
00:49:57,560 --> 00:49:59,919
Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother,

849
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 1: single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out

850
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college and lo

851
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that

852
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at

853
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: the time, and it's why I was able to go

854
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 1: to college. Little did he know how important that would

855
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 1: be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I

856
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 1: am here to tell you about Etho's life. They can

857
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: provide you with peace of mind knowing your family is

858
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: protected even if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is

859
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy,

860
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 1: all designed to protect your family's future in minutes, not months.

861
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:43,240
Speaker 1: There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred percent online.

862
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: There's no medical exam require you just answer a few

863
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: health questions online. You can get a quote in as

864
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 1: little as ten minutes, and you can get same day

865
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867
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869
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871
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872
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:20,560
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873
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874
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about, especially

875
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. Ash chuck. All right,

876
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: let's do a little last chuck before we get out

877
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 1: of here. I think I'm going to try to do

878
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:40,720
Speaker 1: six of them today, so let's keep me honest. Number

879
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: one came from Brian from New England. He says, Hey,

880
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: it's been about a year since you announced your departure

881
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 1: from NBC. Yes, it is feels feels like it feels

882
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,800
Speaker 1: like a decade. But anyway, I imagine you're happy with

883
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 1: the move. Was there a moment that made you realize

884
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 1: going independent was the right call? Or had you just

885
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 1: done everything you set up to? Two in a broadcast,

886
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 1: it's the roles you wish you tried, like foreign correspondent

887
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,760
Speaker 1: or local politics and any future plans you can tease

888
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,839
Speaker 1: maybe a check sports cast. Thanks Brian from New England. Well,

889
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 1: there's a fun little sports project I'm working on. I'll

890
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:15,480
Speaker 1: have more details soon ish, partnering with somebody that is

891
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 1: probably very familiar to many of you in the sports space.

892
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. But it sort of combines

893
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 1: my love for sports in history. So I will throw

894
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: that out there and leave that out there as a

895
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 1: tease for you. But it's something that should be come

896
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 1: into fruition in the next four to six weeks on

897
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 1: that front. Look, I have I I have no regrets.

898
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 1: I miss I miss the collaboration, I miss some of

899
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: my friends in colleagues. I ache currently for my longtime

900
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 1: friend Savannah got three, who's going through just the worst,

901
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: the worst experience imaginable.

902
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 2: Right.

903
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 1: You know, something happens to your parents, your kids, and

904
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 1: they're just there's there's no there's no consoling that, and

905
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,879
Speaker 1: it's just heartbreaking. I know Savannah's mother a little bit.

906
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 1: I love Nancy. She's just terrific. I hope by the

907
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 1: time you hear this, she's home safe. So moments like this,

908
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 1: you know, I miss, I miss just miss being able

909
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 1: to be a be a friend on that.

910
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 2: But I can always be a friend. I don't have

911
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: to be an NBC to do that.

912
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 1: But I'm just in pain for that, you know I

913
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 1: have When you go on the regret front, you know

914
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: some of my regrets, I I it's not really regrets.

915
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:48,359
Speaker 1: It's sort of like.

916
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 2: I, uh, I leaned in.

917
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: I should have jumped into certain to certain things, right.

918
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 1: But I honestly, I'm pretty proud out of my work.

919
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 1: I think it's aging. I think it's aging very well so.

920
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 2: In that sense.

921
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 1: And frankly, I feel like I got out at the

922
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 1: time just before everybody else was being shoved out because

923
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 1: of what's happening with corporate ownership of media. So in

924
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 1: some ways I feel lucky to be in the independent

925
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: space before it was cool. I feel lucky to get

926
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 1: this opportunity to help really talented friends and former colleagues

927
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 1: jump into these waters. As I say, it's a big

928
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:32,959
Speaker 1: cliff dive, but I promise you there's water there.

929
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 2: And you know, I.

930
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 1: You know, when you look back and realize this moment

931
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 1: that we're in with corporate owned media, I don't know.

932
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: I think I was able to maximize everything that was

933
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 1: possible under that situation. And you know that was as

934
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: I was talking with an old friend yesterday, actually we

935
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: were doing a little catching up and reminiscing and lamenting

936
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: about what's happening to our friend's mom. And you know,

937
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:10,720
Speaker 1: he put it as like, you know, it's so different

938
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 1: now that it's it's not even the same thing I worked.

939
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 1: I don't recognize this network.

940
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 2: I say, it is, no.

941
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 1: This not me dissing them, it's just totally different, right,

942
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:28,560
Speaker 1: the separation from that, there's no cable channel anymore. They basically,

943
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: you know, just reimagined, right, there's a real shrinkage of

944
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: what NBC News is. And you know, I don't I

945
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 1: know this. I wouldn't be happy under this circumstance, but

946
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:46,319
Speaker 1: you know, I wore the jersey, so I still root

947
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 1: for him. I root for the individuals there because there's

948
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 1: some good people still there doing some good reporting. I

949
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: just hope they're given the opportunity to do it all. Right,

950
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,439
Speaker 1: next one, let's see, he says, Hey, I rarely miss

951
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 1: an episode and really appreciate how you approach issues with

952
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 1: balance and thoughtfulness. You give me hope multiple times a week.

953
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 1: My wife tells me this all the time. You have

954
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 1: to get people hope, don't depress them too much. So

955
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 1: I appreciate you saying that I sensed a bit of

956
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: fatigue in your one twenty six episode, which is understandable

957
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 1: given the repetitive nature of our political chaos. Just wanted

958
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 1: to say your perspective is helping thousands of us see

959
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 1: the bigger picture and hold on to hope.

960
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:21,719
Speaker 2: Keep it up.

961
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,239
Speaker 1: Well, can I confess your You know I worried that

962
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 1: I let.

963
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 2: My fatigue show that night. I just was tired.

964
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 1: I'd been traveling and doing all this, so I you know,

965
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 1: my goal is to never let you see me tired.

966
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 2: Trust me.

967
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 1: I always have a cup of coffee going because I

968
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 1: don't you know, I appreciate the sentiment, but you shouldn't

969
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 1: catch that which you were correct, You caught me a

970
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:49,759
Speaker 1: little tired. Next question comes from Eric R. North Oaks,

971
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: Minnesota with parentheses. Want to be Canadian Chuck?

972
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 2: First time? Long time?

973
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 1: Why isn't there more discussion about the contrast between Trump

974
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: wanting to send you AUS troops into Iran to protect

975
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 1: protesters while labying protesters in Minneapolis as domestic terrorists. Imagine

976
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 1: if Canada crossed our border to defend US protesters, how

977
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 1: would MAGA respond? The inconsistency is baffling, Eric, That's a

978
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: terrific observation. I you know, I want to sit here

979
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 1: and say, oh, well, you know this is apples and pairs,

980
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: and you know, no, it's a terrific observation. I think

981
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 1: the second part, what if Canada sent in troops to

982
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 1: protect protesters? It's you know, if you recall Tim Wallas

983
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 1: was asked about bringing in the National Guard, and he

984
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: seemed to think he was concerned that, you know that

985
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 1: maybe the military confrontation.

986
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 2: Is is is.

987
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 1: The pretext that that Trump might be looking for and

988
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 1: all that. So it's I, you know, I don't have.

989
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot to add to your comparison.

990
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 2: It is.

991
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 1: Now, can I just say something on Iran? Donald Trump

992
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: is playing with America's credibility again, these Iranian protesters. It's

993
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: just like he is messing with these Venezuelan. Venezuelan dissidents.

994
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 1: You know what, the Venezuelan dissidents want, the democracy. You

995
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 1: know what Donald Trump is not delivering a democracy. He

996
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: is keeping right Maduro's number two in power because she

997
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 1: is simply trying to buy time and is playing the

998
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 1: transactional game. And Trump, as long as he gets what

999
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 1: he wants in regards to control and oil, he doesn't

1000
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 1: care about democracy. So I do think Donald Trump is

1001
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:33,919
Speaker 1: telling us something about what he thinks of democracy by

1002
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: what he's not doing in Venezuela. The fact that this

1003
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 1: is not a priority. Well, if democracy is not a

1004
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: priority when you have an opportunity to make it a

1005
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 1: priority in another country, it's clearly not a priority for

1006
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 1: him here. So that's the unfortunate takeaway. Now speaking of

1007
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 1: American credibility with the Iranian hostage of the Iranian protesters,

1008
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 1: you know, every time we make a promise and don't

1009
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 1: follow through, overseas a potential terrorist, future terrorist attacking the

1010
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 1: United States or a US entity only increases. Right, somebody

1011
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 1: who's fifteen protesting in Iran will see their parent killed

1012
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 1: and wondering how come the Americans didn't come. They said

1013
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: they would come, but they didn't follow through. Their word

1014
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: means nothing. The impression that leads each time, right is

1015
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: it is to make a promise and then abandon is

1016
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 1: in some ways worse than not doing anything. But at

1017
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 1: least he didn't promise that you would. So look, it's

1018
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:53,840
Speaker 1: a fair picture you're painting about, you know, the sort

1019
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 1: of protesters. But I think if we're really trying to understand,

1020
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 1: does he care about democracy or I think the actions

1021
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 1: in Venezuela say it all. And the lack of prioritization

1022
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 1: of making this a democracy. There is a democratic elected

1023
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: government already ready to go, and the inability to acknowledge

1024
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 1: that is because for whatever reason, they haven't financially paid

1025
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 1: whatever price. I guess it needs to be paid to

1026
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 1: become to get this, to get the support of the

1027
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: United States for what the will of the people wanted.

1028
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 1: But I also worry about you know, he's used a

1029
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 1: lot of hot rhetoric with these Iranian protesters, and we

1030
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 1: can debate whether American firepower should be used to protect

1031
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 1: these protesters or not. You know why in Iran but

1032
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: not in me and mar right why? You know, picking

1033
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 1: and choosing when we step in is always comes with

1034
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 1: that comes with a lot of problems long term. But

1035
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 1: making a promise not keeping it is in some ways

1036
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 1: the worst possible outcome. Next question comes from Darryl. He says,

1037
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 1: longtime listener and fellow alum of Miami Killian and the

1038
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 1: University of Miami class in ninety seven. Hey, what you

1039
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 1: take on the current state of nil in college football

1040
01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 1: and specifically Yum's approach to bringing established quarterbacks rather than

1041
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: developing talent from within. I worry this could push promising

1042
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 1: recruits like Darien Coleman to transfer and thrive elsewhere.

1043
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 2: Thanks and keep up the great podcasting. Darryl.

1044
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 1: You're not the only person worried about this. And I

1045
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 1: saw that the Hurricane.

1046
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:32,120
Speaker 2: You know, I'd say, the.

1047
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 1: Hurricane fanatics like yourself and myself were pretty divided, right

1048
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 1: Like I was, I was weirdly not confident that we'd

1049
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 1: be okay if we didn't get a.

1050
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:47,640
Speaker 2: Top notch portal quarterback.

1051
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:52,919
Speaker 1: But that I'm like, all right, you know, we'll find

1052
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 1: a Ken Dorsey, We'll find a Steve Walsh. And what

1053
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 1: do I mean by that? Both Steve Walsh and Ken

1054
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 1: Dorsey did get a couple of cups of coffee in

1055
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:02,200
Speaker 1: the NFL, and Dorsey became a coach, really and he's

1056
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 1: a really good coach. Steve Walsh, I think does some

1057
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 1: coaching in Minnesota, but neither one. We're sort of highly

1058
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 1: touted NFL quarterbacks. But they had great offensive lines, they

1059
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 1: had great running backs and receivers, and they were I

1060
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 1: don't want to call them game managers, sounds like a negative.

1061
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 2: They were better than that.

1062
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 1: They were cerebral, they understood the offense and all that.

1063
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: So I certainly think that the way Miami has built

1064
01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 1: this brother the way Mario wants to build, which is, you.

1065
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:39,320
Speaker 2: Get as deep of.

1066
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 1: An offensive line and defensive line as you can, you

1067
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 1: get as many playmakers as you can, and then you

1068
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:49,680
Speaker 1: know on receivers, and then you make it where it

1069
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 1: is hard for an average to above average to a

1070
01:02:53,120 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 1: great quarterback to fail no matter what level they're in.

1071
01:02:57,520 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: And so as long as we're building these powerful offensive lines,

1072
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:05,280
Speaker 1: I'm not concerned about this, and I think that this quarterback.

1073
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:09,840
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing. I mean, look at the top,

1074
01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:15,040
Speaker 1: look at all of the top top ten. Let's just

1075
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 1: go through the top ten programs real quick. Ohio State

1076
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 1: last year won a national title with a portal quarterback.

1077
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: In the end of this year went to a national

1078
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 1: lad with a portal quarterback. Notre Dame was in the finals,

1079
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 1: lost the finals with a portal quarterback. Miami lost the

1080
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:30,680
Speaker 1: finals with a portal quarterback.

1081
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:32,440
Speaker 2: It is.

1082
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:38,600
Speaker 1: Not you can do both. One could argue Georgia hasn't

1083
01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 1: won a title because they stuck with Gunner Stockton when

1084
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:47,680
Speaker 1: maybe they should have shopped for a portal quarterback. Is

1085
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: that what happened to Alabama?

1086
01:03:49,440 --> 01:03:49,680
Speaker 2: Right?

1087
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:53,560
Speaker 1: Is you see LSU has had some success with portal quarterbacks.

1088
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 1: Texas has arch Manning. I don't even think that counts

1089
01:03:56,880 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: right on that front. But I think that, you know,

1090
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:09,440
Speaker 1: you're assuming this is in Miami's control. I think until

1091
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 1: we get some sort of parameters around transfers and how

1092
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 1: this all works, the quarterbacks themselves are going to keep

1093
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:20,959
Speaker 1: shopping because the paydays are there. Because you know, there's

1094
01:04:20,960 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 1: always one program that thinks they're a quarterback away from

1095
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:28,400
Speaker 1: relevancy if some form or another and will overpay. So

1096
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 1: you're going to get more of these quarterbacks to get

1097
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 1: out of the portal and go in. And so do

1098
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 1: I do? I, you know, think, Well, my guess is

1099
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 1: sixty percent of Miami starting quarterback until the system is

1100
01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 1: sort of changed. If this is the system, that a

1101
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:46,120
Speaker 1: majority of our starters will be quort of quarterbacks. But

1102
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 1: if there's you know, we'll find out, you know, what

1103
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 1: happens to how we recruit if we get a major injury, right,

1104
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 1: you know, there's also unforeseen issues that could pop up.

1105
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:00,840
Speaker 2: That could end up.

1106
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: Forcing our hand, and we'll find out just how good

1107
01:05:05,080 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 1: our high school recruiting has been and our quarterback development

1108
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: has been. But I think as long as we're building

1109
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 1: an offensive line and whether it's making sure we have

1110
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 1: the best freshman and the best portal right like that is,

1111
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:25,920
Speaker 1: then I do think you can plug and play quarterback.

1112
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 1: It's probably the only position I'm comfortable plugging in playing

1113
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 1: like that, But I think you can. Next question comes

1114
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 1: from Heather from Decatur, longtime listener. I'm curious Illinois or Alabama. Heather,

1115
01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 1: long time listener, appreciate the clear, nonpartisan analysis that helps

1116
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 1: me stay grounded in two days political climate.

1117
01:05:47,560 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 2: Well, thank you for saying that, Heather as.

1118
01:05:49,240 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 1: A Georgia native. I'm curious about your recent confidence in

1119
01:05:52,040 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 1: John Ossoff holding the Senate seat beyond the two flipped

1120
01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 1: PSC races. Do you have other insights? I wear those

1121
01:05:56,800 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 1: results might be skewed since many Republican areas had fewer

1122
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:01,800
Speaker 1: races on the like compared to Democratic strongholds. Thanks and

1123
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 1: war Eagle. Obviously it's decater Alabama. What you take on

1124
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:08,160
Speaker 1: Auburn's new head coach. I love Auburn's new head coach,

1125
01:06:08,200 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 1: Alex GROLs. I think he's got a great story. I

1126
01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 1: don't know if you know it. I think he was

1127
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. He was born in Moscow in

1128
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty four. Parents brought him over to the United

1129
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 1: States at the age of seven, became a football crazed,

1130
01:06:22,480 --> 01:06:24,800
Speaker 1: got into it, all that stuff, and he's bringing over

1131
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 1: a great quarterback and Byron Brown. So I you know, look,

1132
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: I've got Auburn fans of my and my family and

1133
01:06:31,280 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 1: two our closest friends and some of my closest relatives.

1134
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 1: Big Auburn fans. So I'm a I'm an Auburn apologist

1135
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: in general. I've become I'm learning to become one. They

1136
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,640
Speaker 1: still didn't deserve a shot at the national title over

1137
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 1: Miami in nineteen eighty three, Stephen, And I'll just leave

1138
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:57,120
Speaker 1: it at that. But I'm bullish on him. I you know,

1139
01:06:57,200 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 1: I just hope the Auburn powers that we have patience, right,

1140
01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:06,360
Speaker 1: They're so inpatience nobody ever seems to get a chance

1141
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:11,240
Speaker 1: to build a program. But I think I like that

1142
01:07:11,320 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 1: they they're trying this, you know, instead of like trying

1143
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:18,920
Speaker 1: the searching for Bobby, you know, in the obsessions with

1144
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:22,520
Speaker 1: Bobby Petrino, or throwing cash at Lane Kiffin or doing

1145
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:25,000
Speaker 1: something like that, right, seeing if they can get a

1146
01:07:25,040 --> 01:07:29,040
Speaker 1: guy from the level below, find their own Urban Meyer, right,

1147
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: who came at the time from the mid majors and

1148
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:35,280
Speaker 1: then turned, you know, came in and helped make Florida power.

1149
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 2: So I would.

1150
01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:42,080
Speaker 1: I'm I am more bullish on him, and I'd like

1151
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 1: I'd like to see the South Florida guy do good

1152
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:49,680
Speaker 1: on that front. Now, as for the other part of

1153
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:54,760
Speaker 1: your question, John, assof what gives me this confidence, it's

1154
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 1: the weak Republican primary field as well. Right, so you

1155
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 1: throw a bunch of things. Number One, you know, Asofsun

1156
01:08:01,520 --> 01:08:06,479
Speaker 1: Andcoman has an enormous financial advantage. Number Two, the only

1157
01:08:06,600 --> 01:08:09,200
Speaker 1: can the I would argue, there were two candidates he

1158
01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:12,480
Speaker 1: had to fear, Brian Camp and Brad Rathensberger.

1159
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 2: Neither one of them are running.

1160
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 1: Three, you have the national climate and Georgia, clearly being

1161
01:08:19,760 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 1: a swing state, now seems to move in that direction.

1162
01:08:22,600 --> 01:08:26,120
Speaker 1: I agree with you, I I. It is not the margins.

1163
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 1: It is the result of the PSC races. Not necessarily

1164
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:33,120
Speaker 1: even the margins that impressed me, because you're right, you

1165
01:08:33,160 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 1: know you had you had to turn out differential that

1166
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:37,439
Speaker 1: was huge. But the fact that you still got those

1167
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:40,800
Speaker 1: huge margins says something. But it mostly goes this is

1168
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:44,479
Speaker 1: a weak field. I think the strongest candidate will be

1169
01:08:44,479 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 1: Derek Dooley, but it looks like the likely opponent's going

1170
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:49,400
Speaker 1: to be somebody with the first name of Congressman, which

1171
01:08:49,400 --> 01:08:53,879
Speaker 1: I think is an absolute gift because his biggest impetive,

1172
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:57,040
Speaker 1: you know, in theory, being a part of the Washington

1173
01:08:57,080 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: Swamp is not good. But if you're a House Republican

1174
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:01,880
Speaker 1: people people don't like Congress. I think they hate the

1175
01:09:01,880 --> 01:09:04,880
Speaker 1: House more than the Senate, just generically, right. So I

1176
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:08,639
Speaker 1: just think you throw all that together open governor's seat.

1177
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:13,080
Speaker 1: No Brian Kemp leading the ticket either, right, his political

1178
01:09:13,120 --> 01:09:16,280
Speaker 1: machine just yes, it's helping Derek Dooley in that Senate primary.

1179
01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:19,640
Speaker 1: But I think when you throw all that together, and

1180
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:22,640
Speaker 1: I was, you know, look, I thought as Off was

1181
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 1: the accidental senator when you know, sort of writing the

1182
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:30,559
Speaker 1: coattails of Raphael Warnock back and during those runoffs. You know,

1183
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 1: he's got a formidable He's always been formidable on raising money,

1184
01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,599
Speaker 1: and he works his you know what off, he works

1185
01:09:39,640 --> 01:09:43,320
Speaker 1: his us off off. I guess it's a to to

1186
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 1: try to create a Dad humor pun there. So yeah,

1187
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 1: that's I think this is I'm I'm inclined to right now.

1188
01:09:51,320 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 1: It's in lean dee to me until you show me

1189
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:56,800
Speaker 1: proof that one of these Republicans can get the fifty

1190
01:09:56,800 --> 01:10:00,280
Speaker 1: percent plus one right now, I don't see it all right.

1191
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 1: Final question of the day comes from Colonel Stephen Mitchell,

1192
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 1: the United States Air Force retired, and he writes says,

1193
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 1: good day, Check. I really enjoyed your January twenty ninth podcast,

1194
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 1: especially in the segment on Trump's poll numbers, it seems

1195
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 1: he's losing support from voters who backed him for economic reasons.

1196
01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:16,599
Speaker 1: But I'm unsure if the same is true for those

1197
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:19,720
Speaker 1: focused on the border. Given your polling expertise, what you

1198
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:22,439
Speaker 1: take and aside from the economy, what do you think

1199
01:10:22,520 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 1: will be the top issue on voter's minds?

1200
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 2: Thank you very much.

1201
01:10:26,080 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 1: Look, I think obviously you're gonna have economy one. I

1202
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:34,400
Speaker 1: think there's the question I have is is there a

1203
01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:38,320
Speaker 1: do we create a bucket called sort of chaos or

1204
01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 1: tumult right? Because ultimately, I think the reason why Trump

1205
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,599
Speaker 1: won in twenty twenty four is because the perceived chaos

1206
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:49,800
Speaker 1: Biden created at the border, in addition to sourness about

1207
01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:53,880
Speaker 1: the economy, like you needed sort of both things. I

1208
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 1: think sourness in the economy plus you know, is he

1209
01:10:57,520 --> 01:10:59,519
Speaker 1: intentionally dividing the country with ice?

1210
01:10:59,640 --> 01:10:59,800
Speaker 2: Right?

1211
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 1: It's not that the it's not that what he did

1212
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:05,760
Speaker 1: on the borders unpopular. In fact, that's an important distinction.

1213
01:11:05,360 --> 01:11:10,400
Speaker 2: Which I which you're I think indicating that you understand

1214
01:11:10,400 --> 01:11:12,360
Speaker 2: about how you know.

1215
01:11:12,400 --> 01:11:16,519
Speaker 1: The danger for Republicans now is that the voters are

1216
01:11:16,520 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 1: pretty sophisticated in how they are processing the immigration issue.

1217
01:11:21,320 --> 01:11:24,720
Speaker 1: When you ask them about border security, they're impressed with

1218
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 1: the Trump administration. They're mostly approving. When you ask them

1219
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 1: about immigration, they see that through the prism of ice,

1220
01:11:31,840 --> 01:11:34,320
Speaker 1: not security anymore, and they don't like what they're seeing.

1221
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 1: So I think the fact that that's been split right

1222
01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:44,360
Speaker 1: where it's an opening if a nimble Democrat knows how

1223
01:11:44,360 --> 01:11:47,640
Speaker 1: to take it, which is, Look, Biden was terrible on

1224
01:11:47,720 --> 01:11:50,400
Speaker 1: border security. I'm not going to let that happen again.

1225
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:52,720
Speaker 1: And I'm glad to see what the Trump administration has

1226
01:11:52,720 --> 01:11:55,040
Speaker 1: done at the border, but what they're doing in our

1227
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:58,040
Speaker 1: communities across the country is outrageous, et cetera, et cetera. Right,

1228
01:11:58,320 --> 01:12:00,320
Speaker 1: So the point is that I think what it does

1229
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 1: provide is the Democrats an opening to look like, hey,

1230
01:12:03,920 --> 01:12:08,160
Speaker 1: I'm no Biden on the border, but I'm no Trump

1231
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:12,760
Speaker 1: in harassing Americans either. Right, It's a way to differentiate

1232
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:16,000
Speaker 1: yourself from the Democratic brand on a negative aspect of

1233
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:18,839
Speaker 1: the border and at the same time being able to

1234
01:12:18,880 --> 01:12:22,280
Speaker 1: differentiate yourself and show empathy and compassionate about what's happening

1235
01:12:22,280 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 1: in places like Minneapolis. So that's where I think that

1236
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:28,920
Speaker 1: there's a real problem now for Republicans on this issue,

1237
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:33,200
Speaker 1: and why so many of them are starting to whisper

1238
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:36,960
Speaker 1: loudly that Stephen Miller's a problem, that he is creating

1239
01:12:37,640 --> 01:12:42,000
Speaker 1: a narrative, creating a perception about Republicans. It's going to

1240
01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:44,840
Speaker 1: be hard to overcome in many of these places. You know,

1241
01:12:45,000 --> 01:12:48,920
Speaker 1: maybe the base is happy, but that is it on

1242
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:52,840
Speaker 1: this stuff. But when you're asking about other issues, look,

1243
01:12:52,880 --> 01:12:57,160
Speaker 1: I think obviously economy anything that's you know, so do

1244
01:12:57,640 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 1: you consider healthcare and economy issue? I kind of do, right,

1245
01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 1: So I think that's there. If Democrats let me do this,

1246
01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:11,559
Speaker 1: let me flip the question here. If Democrats have a

1247
01:13:11,680 --> 01:13:15,960
Speaker 1: huge night, it isn't going to be because they only

1248
01:13:15,960 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 1: won on the economy. If Democrats have a huge night,

1249
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:24,599
Speaker 1: it means they got the corruption issue into the mind

1250
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:27,479
Speaker 1: of the swing voter, that they found a way into it.

1251
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:31,320
Speaker 1: Maybe they did it via exhaustion, you know, the Trump

1252
01:13:31,439 --> 01:13:33,880
Speaker 1: chaos idea. Look what he does at the White House,

1253
01:13:34,080 --> 01:13:37,799
Speaker 1: Kennedy centers selling foreign policy like lumping it all in together.

1254
01:13:38,360 --> 01:13:44,679
Speaker 1: But you know, I think the difference between Democrats having

1255
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:48,519
Speaker 1: a good night in November and having an incredible night

1256
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:58,080
Speaker 1: in November is their ability to take these various gross, corruptive,

1257
01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:03,120
Speaker 1: uncomfortable stories and figuring out how to package it as

1258
01:14:03,160 --> 01:14:08,200
Speaker 1: one right. COVID helped paint a picture of you know,

1259
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:10,720
Speaker 1: all the Trump chaos and it led to this right,

1260
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:13,799
Speaker 1: And so that's why that messaging was was pretty easy

1261
01:14:14,360 --> 01:14:15,439
Speaker 1: to get him out of there.

1262
01:14:15,760 --> 01:14:20,200
Speaker 2: If you know it.

1263
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,760
Speaker 1: It's sort of I'll be curious to see how they

1264
01:14:23,760 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 1: do it and if they can do it. But my

1265
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:28,880
Speaker 1: point is is that it's one of those if I'm

1266
01:14:28,880 --> 01:14:30,400
Speaker 1: in a coma, If I go in to coma to

1267
01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:33,160
Speaker 1: my and I don't wake up till day after election

1268
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:35,000
Speaker 1: and you tell me they won six Senate seats and

1269
01:14:35,000 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 1: thirty House seats, I'm like, oh wow, the corruption issue

1270
01:14:38,320 --> 01:14:42,280
Speaker 1: must have played. That would be my initial instinct. So

1271
01:14:43,800 --> 01:14:49,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to play, but I

1272
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:51,599
Speaker 1: think this is one of those for them to go

1273
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 1: from good to great, they need to figure out how

1274
01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:57,000
Speaker 1: to get the corruption issue to be easy to digest

1275
01:14:58,439 --> 01:15:03,400
Speaker 1: and something the quote check on Trump rite the check

1276
01:15:03,439 --> 01:15:05,960
Speaker 1: on his power, you know it is. It is the

1277
01:15:06,000 --> 01:15:09,280
Speaker 1: path for them to get to that messaging. But you

1278
01:15:09,439 --> 01:15:12,320
Speaker 1: need to make the case that he's corrupt and that

1279
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:15,960
Speaker 1: this corruption is happening in order to do it, and

1280
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:17,719
Speaker 1: we'll see if they're able to pull that off.

1281
01:15:18,960 --> 01:15:19,760
Speaker 2: All Right, there you go.

1282
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:26,200
Speaker 1: That does it for me on a Wednesday, Man, I

1283
01:15:26,240 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 1: got to this is a political junkies, junkies episode trying

1284
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:31,640
Speaker 1: to explain this is like the old hotline for me.

1285
01:15:31,960 --> 01:15:36,720
Speaker 1: Little media narrative explanation, a little historical comparison with Teddy Roosevelt,

1286
01:15:36,960 --> 01:15:41,240
Speaker 1: a little electoral scoreboard in college strategizing for twenty thirty two,

1287
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:45,600
Speaker 1: plus this, and somebody's asking me whether you know what

1288
01:15:45,680 --> 01:15:47,759
Speaker 1: do I miss about NBC at this point?

1289
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:48,120
Speaker 2: Nothing?

1290
01:15:48,880 --> 01:15:53,519
Speaker 1: This, This is this is the broadcast, the type of

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01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:56,080
Speaker 1: broadcast I've always wanted to do. So I appreciate you listening,

1292
01:15:56,320 --> 01:15:59,800
Speaker 1: appreciate your support. I can subscribe, don't forget to use

1293
01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 1: all the codes from our advertisers, and with that, I'll

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01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:05,000
Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours