WEBVTT - Zelenskiy, Ohtani, and Hawaiian Airlines

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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<v Speaker 2>my co host Matt Miller.

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<v Speaker 1>Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market movin news.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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<v Speaker 2>you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com slash podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, he's back, folks. He said he'd be back,

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<v Speaker 2>and he's back. Brad Jacobs, Executive Chairman of XPO You

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<v Speaker 2>know what in Lovin on the New York Sock Exchange XBO.

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<v Speaker 2>He's got a new company, which he's been talking. I

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<v Speaker 2>guess he kind of hinted at the last time he

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<v Speaker 2>ses to tease. Thank you very much, Brad, Thanks so

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<v Speaker 2>much for joining us. We really appreciate you coming back.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about the new opportunity you've seen. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you've done roll ups of the waste management business, the

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<v Speaker 2>rental business, the logistics business.

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<v Speaker 3>Now what building products distribution?

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<v Speaker 2>Building products distribution? Okay, so if you can.

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<v Speaker 4>Think about any house or a commercial facility, or a

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<v Speaker 4>hospital or a school or a church, all the stuff

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<v Speaker 4>that goes into making that building, so that could be

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<v Speaker 4>the roof, the flooring, the windows, the tiles, the doors,

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<v Speaker 4>the fire hydrant, the infrastructure, the.

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<v Speaker 3>Pipes, HVAC. All that stuff has to go through the

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<v Speaker 3>supply chain and its huge, huge markets eight hundred billion

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<v Speaker 3>dollars in size between here and Western Europe, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>been growing about seven percent.

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<v Speaker 5>All right, So what what do you bring to it

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<v Speaker 5>that that's new.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll bring a lot that's new. First of all, we're

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<v Speaker 3>going to create a very large company and get all

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<v Speaker 3>the advantages of scale and size that come with that.

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<v Speaker 3>Second of all, we're going to apply technology We're going

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<v Speaker 3>to apply technology, especially AI, for dynamic pricing, for managing

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<v Speaker 3>the warehouses better, making them more automated, to do route optimization,

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<v Speaker 3>for the delivery trucks, to do interactions with the customer.

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<v Speaker 3>E commerce right now is mid single digits percent. It

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<v Speaker 3>should be the majority.

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<v Speaker 5>And in building materials, Paul, all I want is a

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<v Speaker 5>straight tube by five. I know that's can you make

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<v Speaker 5>that happen. It's a big deal. It's a big deal

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<v Speaker 5>where you source your materials because even though it's commoditized,

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<v Speaker 5>I just find as the end user, it's not always

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<v Speaker 5>the same product.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm glad to hear that there's a problem to

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<v Speaker 3>solve in this chain, and we will solve that.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about kind of the I guess in

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<v Speaker 2>the past, part of your strategy has been rolling up well,

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<v Speaker 2>rolling up a fragment in industry. Is that in fact

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<v Speaker 2>the case here? Talk to us about kind of the

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<v Speaker 2>fragmentation and kind of how you plan to deal with that.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's about thirteen thousand distributors here in the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>excuse me, seven thousand here the United States. It's about

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<v Speaker 3>thirteen thousand in Europe. So there's twenty thousand distributors between

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<v Speaker 3>here and Western Europe. So it's very, very very fragmented.

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<v Speaker 3>The largest company would be Fergusing. It's about thirty billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>Great company, done very good, very well. But I plan

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<v Speaker 3>to make a company even bigger than that.

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<v Speaker 2>Boy, how do I invest in this on? I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>going to miss this one.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, as Paulman, it's not your first rodeo. What is

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<v Speaker 5>the experience that you picked up at the other companies

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<v Speaker 5>with which you were involved and how does it apply

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<v Speaker 5>to this.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's a similar business plan in the sense that

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to be primarily based on consolidation acquisitions, So

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<v Speaker 3>acquiring companies at a relatively good price, a price that's

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<v Speaker 3>a lower multiple demo we're trading app and then improving

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<v Speaker 3>those companies. So if you look at XPO Logistics, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>we bought eighteen companies. They were doing roughly a billion

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<v Speaker 3>dollars in EBITDA between all of them, and after a

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<v Speaker 3>few years they were doing over two billion dollars VIVI do.

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<v Speaker 3>So we improved the companies that we bought. That's the

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<v Speaker 3>same thing we're going to do here.

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<v Speaker 5>Do you become then a friend or enemy or a

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<v Speaker 5>frindemy of a home depot or Lows home.

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<v Speaker 3>Depot and a lesser extent. Low's plays in a specific

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<v Speaker 3>niche of this market, mostly the pro contractor, and they'll

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<v Speaker 3>be one of many competitors twenty thousands of precise all.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So I know we're talked to you the last

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<v Speaker 2>time management teams. Assembling a management team is one of

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<v Speaker 2>your primary responsibilities jobs, the most important thing, most important things.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about how you're going to kind of

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<v Speaker 2>do that here.

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<v Speaker 6>So I wrote a book, as you know, yep, and

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<v Speaker 6>it's called how to Make a few billion dollars. And

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<v Speaker 6>the key thing if you read that book is the

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<v Speaker 6>quality of the people. Make sure you have people who

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<v Speaker 6>are really smart, really hard working, very good at what

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<v Speaker 6>they do, collaborative, good team members, people are really sharp

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<v Speaker 6>and focused. And if you can get that quality of

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<v Speaker 6>world class management hired, and if you can create a

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<v Speaker 6>culture where everyone values the relationships between each other and

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<v Speaker 6>treats each other with respect and transparency, you can accomplish

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<v Speaker 6>a real lot. I'm going to have that same exact

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<v Speaker 6>principle here. That's one of the most important principles.

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<v Speaker 3>For success in my opinion. And by the way, we

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<v Speaker 3>named it QXO qx quality. Yep, we kept the X

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<v Speaker 3>and O because we're going to use some of the

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<v Speaker 3>same winning principles that made XPO and g XO and

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<v Speaker 3>RXO successful.

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<v Speaker 5>How far behind is the buildings supply industry in terms

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<v Speaker 5>of adapting and using technology.

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<v Speaker 3>As an as an industry as a whole, it's behind.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe it's in like the second inning. There are a

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<v Speaker 3>handful of companies doing pretty well. So last week Builders

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<v Speaker 3>First Source had an investor day. I read the transcript

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<v Speaker 3>and sought on webcast. Heard it on the webcast. I

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<v Speaker 3>like what they said about what they're doing in technology.

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<v Speaker 3>But they're the exception.

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<v Speaker 7>They're the anomaly.

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<v Speaker 3>Most companies are not using technology in any big way.

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<v Speaker 3>In the warehouses. Most of them are not using technology

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<v Speaker 3>enough on the route optimization. Most of the building products

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<v Speaker 3>distributors are not using technology enough for pricing decisions, for

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<v Speaker 3>pricing optimization. And these are big, big variables that can

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<v Speaker 3>enhance the customer experience dramatically and take out lots of

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<v Speaker 3>unnecessary cost.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, does this mean you pass the costs on to

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<v Speaker 5>the end users?

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<v Speaker 3>To the contrary, I hope we save money for the

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<v Speaker 3>end user because we're going to take out waste, takeout

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<v Speaker 3>inefficiency in the whole supply chain, and we'll share that.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll share that with the customer. We'll have better margins,

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<v Speaker 3>but we could share some of that improve margin with

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<v Speaker 3>the customer.

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<v Speaker 5>What kind of revenues are you predicting at this point?

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<v Speaker 3>By the end of the first year, we should be

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<v Speaker 3>on a revenue run rate of at least a billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>At the end of the second year, we should be

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<v Speaker 3>on a revenue run rate of at least five billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>And over the next decade, we expect to get this

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<v Speaker 3>into the tens of billions of dollars in revenue size.

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<v Speaker 2>So where are we with QXO now, you just press

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<v Speaker 2>release comes out today. Where do you start? Where's your

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<v Speaker 2>capital come from? How do you go from here? How

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<v Speaker 2>do you build this company?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it was on your show last week and we

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<v Speaker 3>talked about how we're putting a billion dollars of equity

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<v Speaker 3>into a very small cap company called silver Soun. That's right,

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<v Speaker 3>and we're going to wait till that deal closed is

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<v Speaker 3>in a few months, and then we're going to spin

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<v Speaker 3>that company back to the original legacy shareholders. We're going

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<v Speaker 3>to give them a little dividend two and a half

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<v Speaker 3>million dollars. We're gonna give them a less than half

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<v Speaker 3>percent share in our new company. We we'll have our

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<v Speaker 3>new company, we'll own ninety nine percent of it, and

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<v Speaker 3>we will use that money to go out and do

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<v Speaker 3>some acquisitions and start building the business, and over time

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<v Speaker 3>we'll tap the capital markets as we've done over the decades.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you typically fund your deals equity versus debt,

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<v Speaker 2>given now that the debt is so much more expensive

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<v Speaker 2>than it was over the last ten to fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 3>More equity than debt than in the past. In the past,

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<v Speaker 3>I've been comfortable going up to two to four times

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<v Speaker 3>of leverage. Here, I'm thinking more roughly half of that.

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<v Speaker 3>And the reasons are two full One, as you said,

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates are higher, although twenty years going to straight

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<v Speaker 3>for right here, Yeah, just recently. It was in the

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<v Speaker 3>last ten years they got almost nothing. Secondly, is the

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<v Speaker 3>world has a lot of macro issues going on, wars

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<v Speaker 3>and geopolitical tension, and it's more prudent to have less

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<v Speaker 3>leverage in my opinion.

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<v Speaker 5>What's your title going to be, what's your role in

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<v Speaker 5>all this? And are you giving up your business, your

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<v Speaker 5>other businesses.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm certainly not going to give up my other businesses.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm executive chairman of XPO and I planned to keep

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<v Speaker 3>doing that, And I'm non executive chairman of RXO and

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<v Speaker 3>of GXO, and I love all fear of those companies dearly,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think I help them in the roles that

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<v Speaker 3>I play there. In terms of what my title and

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<v Speaker 3>position is going to be here, it's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>the same time I've had since I've been twenty three.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm going to be chairman and CEO, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 3>to run the company. I'm going to leave the management team.

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<v Speaker 5>And what makes you target this industry specifically? You've got

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<v Speaker 5>about thirty seconds or so left.

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<v Speaker 3>I looked at over five hundred opportunities and many many

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<v Speaker 3>different industries, and this is the one that checked every

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<v Speaker 3>single box of what I was looking for. Something that

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<v Speaker 3>was large, something that was act position rich, something that

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<v Speaker 3>was up my alley in terms of my skill set.

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<v Speaker 3>Something with it was growth seven percent organic growth, and

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<v Speaker 3>an industry and a customer set that is familiar to me.

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<v Speaker 3>United Rentals is a big overlap with the construction customers.

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<v Speaker 2>For example, fascinating Brad thanks so much for joining us again.

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<v Speaker 2>We appreciate you coming back and bringing us up to

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<v Speaker 2>date on your new opportunity. Brad Jacobsy's executive chairman of XPO.

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<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the Team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

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<v Speaker 7>the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

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<v Speaker 7>on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>The Business of Sports, John, it's scarlettfou and a couple

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<v Speaker 2>other slugs. I think Michael Barr and some guy who's

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<v Speaker 2>an emerging markets guy. How he gets a Damien c

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<v Speaker 2>does it all? He does it all. But they talk

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<v Speaker 2>about the business of sports. I've got a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>business of sports questions. I'm a golfer. I'm a fan

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<v Speaker 2>of the game of golf, fan of the business of

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<v Speaker 2>the golf. I don't understand what's going on with this

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<v Speaker 2>live golf thing. I thought the PGA and the Live

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<v Speaker 2>we're merging. Everybody's gonna be happy altogether. And then John

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<v Speaker 2>Rahm says he's going to go and take three hundred

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<v Speaker 2>large from live golf. Can you, Scarlet Fiel, you cover

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<v Speaker 2>all this for us? Can you tell us what's happening here.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, he's a reigning Master's champ, the number three player

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<v Speaker 8>in the world, so he ads this legitimacy to going

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<v Speaker 8>over to Live and he's the biggest signing by far

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<v Speaker 8>yet And you're right. Live Golf and PGA Tour are

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<v Speaker 8>working towards a deal, but nothing's happened yet. They have

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<v Speaker 8>to give an update by December thirty first, and it's

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<v Speaker 8>not clear what shape this deal will take, although we

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<v Speaker 8>do know that PGA has been talking with other investors,

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<v Speaker 8>including a report this morning from Jillian Tan that a

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<v Speaker 8>Fenway Sports Group led consortium has been chosen to enter

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<v Speaker 8>into final talks to be a co investor, a US

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<v Speaker 8>co investor in this Live Golf PGA Tour entity.

0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:57.880
<v Speaker 5>Every one of these sports stories as of late, the

0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:03.080
<v Speaker 5>common denominator is money, and with it this specific case

0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.720
<v Speaker 5>golfers signing with Live. Something in me tells me that

0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.880
<v Speaker 5>this is some sort of Faustian bargain that these golfers

0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:13.199
<v Speaker 5>are made. Am I being too cynical or fausia not realistic?

0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:16.280
<v Speaker 8>If the PGA Tour is in active negotiations with Live

0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:20.120
<v Speaker 8>Golf to merge whatever obstacles they threw up there, and

0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:24.679
<v Speaker 8>whatever concerns they cited has kind of gone by the wayside.

0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:29.280
<v Speaker 8>They opened the door to golfers negotiating with Live Golf directly.

0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.439
<v Speaker 8>We know that John Rahm had said in the past

0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.360
<v Speaker 8>that he was not interested in the money. He said

0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 8>he and his wife were not concerned about the money,

0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:40.400
<v Speaker 8>you know, that Live could offer them. He's always been

0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.640
<v Speaker 8>very interested in history and legacy, and he said back

0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.520
<v Speaker 8>in twenty twenty two. Right now, the PGA Tour has that. Now,

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.000
<v Speaker 8>once it became apparent that the PGA Tour was negotiating

0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:51.880
<v Speaker 8>with Live Golf, maybe it doesn't have that history and

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:54.520
<v Speaker 8>legacy anymore because it's open season it is.

0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if the PGA is going to merge with Live,

0:11:57.840 --> 0:11:59.920
<v Speaker 2>they're going to take a direct investment from the set

0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:04.720
<v Speaker 2>Investment Fund. So you've already lost that The fundamental argument

0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.600
<v Speaker 2>that the PGA had against Live is now, by the way, say,

0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.160
<v Speaker 2>because you're in fact taking that money. So now if

0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm John Rahm, I'm like, why do I wait?

0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.720
<v Speaker 5>Where the regulators and all this? What's there?

0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.199
<v Speaker 8>The DOJ is looking into this, and you know, again

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 8>they have that December thirty first deadline with which to

0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.720
<v Speaker 8>update the government. We do know that Jaymonahan and the

0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.920
<v Speaker 8>PIF governor, yasir Al Ramayan Our scheduled to meet this

0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:32.679
<v Speaker 8>week for negotiations, so maybe there'll be some reporting out

0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:32.959
<v Speaker 8>of that.

0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.000
<v Speaker 5>Here's the independent of each other. Can they possibly Could

0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:41.520
<v Speaker 5>the PGA possibly survive on its own against an entity

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:42.000
<v Speaker 5>like Live?

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:42.400
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 8>They don't have bottomless pockets like Live. Live is backed

0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:45.960
<v Speaker 8>by the Saudi government.

0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 2>But I'll tell you what the PGA has that Live

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.120
<v Speaker 2>doesn't have, which is a network television contract. I mean,

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:51.400
<v Speaker 2>if you want to watch Live, you got to go

0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.199
<v Speaker 2>find it on the CW with's your a bunch of

0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:57.200
<v Speaker 2>hotstruct stations around. They have no and so it is.

0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I'm an avid golf fan. I will watch

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:04.000
<v Speaker 2>the round of some tournament in Poughkeepsie if it's the

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.680
<v Speaker 2>PGA Tour. I didn't haven't seen one shot of You could,

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 2>but you just don't want to. It's a combination. I

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.320
<v Speaker 2>don't really care to. The PJS takes care of it

0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 2>for me, and you know, I don't know so, but

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.440
<v Speaker 2>there's enough people that are following Live. I think that

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 2>it's a thing and it doesn't matter what the TV

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 2>contract is as long as you have I guess that's

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 2>Saudi money behind you.

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:25.480
<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 8>Well, I mean they can always disrupt that at some point,

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:30.800
<v Speaker 8>and technology is moving the direction of people are not

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.200
<v Speaker 8>necessarily going to be signing up for the cable bundles

0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 8>and signing up for CW streaming will become more and

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:36.960
<v Speaker 8>more attractive over time.

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:40.680
<v Speaker 5>Yep. All right, So what next for the Saudi government

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:41.720
<v Speaker 5>in its investments?

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.200
<v Speaker 8>Maybe the Saudi government should look into Shoho Tani.

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.839
<v Speaker 2>Yes, so now again, money money, It's all about a

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.479
<v Speaker 2>lot of money in this case, seven hundred million dollars.

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 8>Over ten years. This is the largest contract of any

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 8>in any US professional sports league. It tops Aaron Judge

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 8>his contract as a free agent nine year, three hundred

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 8>and sixty million, Mike Trout who got an extension twelve year,

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 8>or four hundred twenty six and a half million, even

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 8>Patrick Mahomes ten year, four hundred and fifty million, Lionel

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 8>Messi when he resigned with Barcelona. So this is a

0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 8>you know, ball Well no, I didn't want to use

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 8>that word. Well, I mean, it's a racket busting contract

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 8>about that.

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 2>It's amazing. I mean, I mean, did they what's the

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.800
<v Speaker 2>money behind the Dodgers, and I think about the Yankees.

0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:27.920
<v Speaker 2>I think about the YES Network, and they make a

0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:28.720
<v Speaker 2>ton of a.

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 8>Very lucrative sports TV CONTRACTIA contract. But I mean, this

0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 8>is also the second biggest media market in the nation,

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 8>right after New York. And on top of that, unlike

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 8>the Yankees, they've done very very well on the field.

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 8>They won the World Series in twenty twenty. They haven't

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 8>missed a season since twenty two.

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, that's amazing. That's kind of like the Yankees of

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:50.680
<v Speaker 2>the nineties in their early two thousand day.

0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:52.800
<v Speaker 5>Is he worth it is?

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, he's worth it.

0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 5>Okay, give me some stats, so the comparation's with me.

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:57.840
<v Speaker 2>But how about this.

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:02.960
<v Speaker 8>He won the MVP twice. He is an incredible hitter

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 8>and he's an incredible pitcher. If he just became one

0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 8>a hitter or one a pitcher, he would be an

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.520
<v Speaker 8>All Star in either, except that he could make.

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.800
<v Speaker 2>People are saying, I mean he is as good or

0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.360
<v Speaker 2>better than Babe Ruth. That's how far those are.

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 8>Those are the comparisons. And this summer when he was

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 8>playing around the league, everywhere he went there were fans

0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 8>showing up and it was like showtime. You know, and

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 8>they're just like tons of fans everywhere, and it was

0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 8>it was basically a tour to see, like how can

0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 8>we uh appeal to him and show him that like

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 8>he should come play for the Mets, or he should

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 8>come play for Detroit or whatever city you want to mention?

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 5>Is there any chance he'll start dating Taylor Swift exactly?

0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:49.160
<v Speaker 8>Kelsey is not giving up on his situation at all.

0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.800
<v Speaker 2>Ok, All right, what else he has for the business

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.080
<v Speaker 2>of sports? Coming out for the businesses? Now you have,

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean our listeners and our viewers on YouTube. Scarlet's

0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.200
<v Speaker 2>watching wearing a New York Rangers jacket. So is that

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 2>the team number one for you?

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:04.160
<v Speaker 8>Team number one?

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:06.360
<v Speaker 2>You got to Cornell? So does that mean you're you're

0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 2>just a die hard hockey fan.

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.520
<v Speaker 8>I've always been a hockey fan, Okay. And when I

0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.280
<v Speaker 8>went to school, I actually didn't go to any of

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 8>the games because, yeah, because it was really hard to

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 8>get a ticket.

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 2>You had to hard to get a hockey ticket.

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, you had to sleep outside and to get the ticket. Yeah,

0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 8>I mean back in the day, this is what it entailed.

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.040
<v Speaker 2>And I didn't do that. Yeah. Wow.

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 8>But then they started playing all the hockey games or

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.480
<v Speaker 8>the big game Red Hot Hockey in Madison Square Garden

0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 8>on Thanksgiving weekend and it became a bigger thing. Okay,

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 8>so that's been going on for a couple of years,

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 8>and I know I came on to talk about that.

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 8>That's really fun.

0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:43.120
<v Speaker 2>That's a fun all right. So you're a Ranger fan.

0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 2>Unbelievable years so far.

0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:48.000
<v Speaker 8>For this so far, but seasons early, I mean seasons young,

0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:49.400
<v Speaker 8>and anything could happen.

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:50.600
<v Speaker 5>Who's your team?

0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't know. I mean the Rangers, I mean

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.360
<v Speaker 2>I mean Yankees, guy, Giants.

0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 5>You're from New Jersey. You've had a root for your Devils.

0:16:58.160 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you know, I've been to. I took the kids

0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 2>to a lot of game. It's actually a great thing

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 2>to take kids with. Point's expensive.

0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, the Devils are very exciting though. Yes, young players,

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.120
<v Speaker 8>they're really they're doing a lot.

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:13.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but I mean Madison Square Garden going to the

0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:17.640
<v Speaker 2>protection Duke Blue Devil's next Wednesday at the Garden against Baylor. Oh,

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 2>next time, and that'll be fine.

0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:24.160
<v Speaker 5>Longtime listener called Wright sin Googenheim money behind the LA Dodgers.

0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:26.680
<v Speaker 5>There you go, that's right, that's from mister.

0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 2>Cinch Ye thank you. Yep, that's I remember that deal

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.440
<v Speaker 2>getting done. All right, Scarlet Food, thank you so much.

0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 2>We appreciate Scarlet Fush. She's a host of Bloomberg Television

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:39.400
<v Speaker 2>and Bloomberg Radio's Business of Sports. Michael Barr Damien Sassaur

0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:42.680
<v Speaker 2>take a backseat to Scarletfoodle's let let's let let's let's

0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:43.040
<v Speaker 2>be honest.

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:44.000
<v Speaker 8>You're like the other way around.

0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:47.520
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape. Can's are live program Bloomberg

0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:51.480
<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, tune

0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 7>in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 7>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:01.359
<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:05.960
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's switch gears, go a little bit political.

0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:10.159
<v Speaker 2>Get President Zelensky coming to the States, coming to d C.

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 2>Meeting with lawmakers to try to unlock some of that

0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.439
<v Speaker 2>aid for Ukraine. Let's bring in Wendy Schuler. She's a

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 2>professor at Brown University. Wendy, I mean give us a

0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 2>sense of in Washington, d C. Where Ukraine fits in

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.159
<v Speaker 2>with all the other news, whether it's from the Middle

0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 2>East or just the coming election, it seems like the

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.240
<v Speaker 2>Ukraine and the support of Ukraine has kind of lost

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 2>a little bit of the limelight here Where are we?

0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, man, I.

0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.600
<v Speaker 11>Think the momentum, I wouldn't say collapsed, but I think

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.439
<v Speaker 11>the momentum has slowed considerably. And rather than have a

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.200
<v Speaker 11>sort of a singular conflict that we've been very involved

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:53.600
<v Speaker 11>in and very supporter of Ukraine against Russia, now another

0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.640
<v Speaker 11>conflict has opened up that has really soaked up all

0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 11>the attention, all the emotion and passion, and that of

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.919
<v Speaker 11>course the Middle East Israeli Gaza conflict.

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.760
<v Speaker 10>So that has really become a problem for the.

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 11>Biden administration and the tendency in the Republican Party, particularly

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:13.520
<v Speaker 11>with the Alistair McCarthy and the replacement with someone who's

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:15.359
<v Speaker 11>more conservative.

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:16.680
<v Speaker 10>And more insular in their.

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 11>View about the United States role globally in terms of

0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:21.879
<v Speaker 11>military conflict and support.

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 10>That has happened at the same time, and so you.

0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:29.240
<v Speaker 11>Know that Caucus is not particularly persuaded that we should

0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 11>be spending billions of dollars to continue to support Ukraine.

0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:36.400
<v Speaker 11>And notice that they have not yet, although they want

0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.639
<v Speaker 11>to separate the Israeli eight out, they haven't passed the

0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:39.320
<v Speaker 11>Israeli aid.

0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:43.159
<v Speaker 5>Either let's jump ahead to election day and when a

0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 5>voter walks into the poll and pulls the lever of

0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.719
<v Speaker 5>the switch or whatever it is, now, are they thinking

0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:54.399
<v Speaker 5>about Ukraine? Are they thinking about funding for israel? I?

0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:59.920
<v Speaker 11>Think a small group of people in particularly the Gaza conflict,

0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.920
<v Speaker 11>a small group relative to the United States voting population.

0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 11>A small group will have intense preferences and they will

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:10.400
<v Speaker 11>remember either favorably or unfavorably, what the Biden administration has done,

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:13.639
<v Speaker 11>and then they will now listen potentially to Trump or

0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 11>Nikki Hanley Rondo Santis on what the government should do

0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.840
<v Speaker 11>so that. I don't think those people swing an election nationally,

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.479
<v Speaker 11>but there are some communities in swing states where they

0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:26.159
<v Speaker 11>could really make a difference in their voting Ukraine. I

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.800
<v Speaker 11>don't think has ever been an issue that as at

0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:34.160
<v Speaker 11>the forefront or top of mind that swings electoral decision making.

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.119
<v Speaker 2>Kind of on that front, Wendy, there's a couple of

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:39.920
<v Speaker 2>polls that one from CBS News, one from the Wall

0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:45.199
<v Speaker 2>Street Journal. Biden's support of Israel alienates more Democrats in

0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:48.960
<v Speaker 2>the new poll. What kind of calculus is the president,

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:52.119
<v Speaker 2>you know, kind of working on here? As it relates

0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:53.520
<v Speaker 2>to his support for Israel.

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.560
<v Speaker 11>Well, I think here we really see as we watch,

0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 11>you know, for the next months before the US pop

0:20:59.880 --> 0:21:03.640
<v Speaker 11>up has had a daily dose of Donald Trump. I mean,

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 11>we just haven't been exposed to the daily dose yet.

0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:11.240
<v Speaker 11>If he wins Iowa, as we now sort of expect

0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:13.640
<v Speaker 11>him to, and if he wins New Hampshire, we are

0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 11>going to get multiple daily doses of Donald Trump, and

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.119
<v Speaker 11>I think the polls will probably reflect a shift a

0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 11>couple of months down the line.

0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:23.360
<v Speaker 10>All on that comparison.

0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 11>But right now, the Democrats face a real problem because

0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:29.879
<v Speaker 11>at the congressional level they are divided on Israel and Gaza,

0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 11>and that division is obviously very public.

0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:34.680
<v Speaker 10>So going into the twenty twenty four races.

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:36.199
<v Speaker 11>You've got house races, you've got a chance to take

0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:39.280
<v Speaker 11>the House back, you've got Senate seats you're desperate to preserve,

0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:42.679
<v Speaker 11>and you've got the Biden reelection all converging. And you

0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.679
<v Speaker 11>don't have consensus within the Democratic Party on each of

0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:48.920
<v Speaker 11>those levels on what the best policy path for is.

0:21:49.080 --> 0:21:54.160
<v Speaker 11>And that's a considerable problem. Donations, endorsements, and again, people

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.600
<v Speaker 11>who are intense about this, those preferences are going to

0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.040
<v Speaker 11>harden in the next couple of months, and you're not

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:00.680
<v Speaker 11>going to be able to shake them once they do.

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:05.280
<v Speaker 5>That Daily does said you're speaking of is the implication

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:09.440
<v Speaker 5>that his supporter or maybe not the core, but people

0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:10.840
<v Speaker 5>are going to get a little tired of this.

0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:13.560
<v Speaker 11>Well, so this is the you know, we look at

0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:16.320
<v Speaker 11>independent voting, especially in swing states, and we say, what

0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 11>has the pattern been twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty two,

0:22:20.040 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 11>they did not vote for either Trump or Trump endorsed

0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:26.520
<v Speaker 11>candidates in big numbers. The Democrats had the advantage among

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:30.400
<v Speaker 11>independent voters. Right now, the polling shows that advantage has eroded,

0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:32.320
<v Speaker 11>not disappeared, but eroted.

0:22:32.680 --> 0:22:34.879
<v Speaker 10>You know, as he comes back into the limelight and

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:36.119
<v Speaker 10>independence are.

0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.919
<v Speaker 11>Reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or

0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.800
<v Speaker 11>Trump surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I

0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:46.080
<v Speaker 11>think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:48.520
<v Speaker 11>it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he's

0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:51.760
<v Speaker 11>a chance to win those voters back into the Democratic

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:53.639
<v Speaker 11>camp at least at the presidential alone.

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:58.000
<v Speaker 2>How do you think this Republican I don't know. Competitive

0:22:58.080 --> 0:23:00.399
<v Speaker 2>landscape is going to shake out here is going to

0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:03.400
<v Speaker 2>be you know, if and when former President Trump comes

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:06.600
<v Speaker 2>back and wins in Iowa and or New Hampshire's you

0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:10.040
<v Speaker 2>suggest that'll just everybody will kind of bow out at

0:23:10.040 --> 0:23:12.240
<v Speaker 2>that point because he will take all the oxygen out

0:23:12.240 --> 0:23:12.600
<v Speaker 2>of the air.

0:23:13.160 --> 0:23:14.240
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, you know, that's a great question.

0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:17.160
<v Speaker 11>It really depends on South Carolina obviously, and they've got

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:20.840
<v Speaker 11>proportional delegation allocation in the Republican Party and winner take

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:22.720
<v Speaker 11>all as you move further down the line in the

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:23.480
<v Speaker 11>primary season.

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:24.960
<v Speaker 10>So that's how Trump.

0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:26.960
<v Speaker 11>Stayed alive in twenty sixteen. He didn't do all that

0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:29.320
<v Speaker 11>while in the early primaries, but he stayed alive and

0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 11>then managed to win many more delegates. So the question is,

0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:34.920
<v Speaker 11>not only does he soak up all the oxygen per se,

0:23:34.920 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 11>but he sets the agenda for the Republican Party. He

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:41.160
<v Speaker 11>becomes the symbolics postperson for all Republicans running in twenty

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:44.159
<v Speaker 11>twenty four, And now they're slowly going down to like

0:23:44.160 --> 0:23:46.600
<v Speaker 11>a four seat margin or a six seat margin. Their

0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:50.280
<v Speaker 11>margin has shrunk and where they won seats California and

0:23:50.400 --> 0:23:52.960
<v Speaker 11>New York are not likely to be as favorable to

0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:55.920
<v Speaker 11>them in twenty twenty four presidential election. More voters get

0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:57.959
<v Speaker 11>out the door on both sides, and if you have

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 11>a competitive, slightly leaning Democratic district that flipped, that's very

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:03.960
<v Speaker 11>tough to maintain. So I think it looks bad for

0:24:04.040 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 11>the Republicans on the House side. Also, I'm not sure

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:08.480
<v Speaker 11>they can govern. Will we shut the government down in

0:24:08.600 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 11>early spring or late winter? Will they pass the death

0:24:11.560 --> 0:24:14.400
<v Speaker 11>ceiling or filibuster that They've got all the same challenges

0:24:14.440 --> 0:24:15.960
<v Speaker 11>going forward in leadership, and I.

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:17.679
<v Speaker 10>Think it's going to be a very tough landscape.

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.959
<v Speaker 11>On the other hand, the Democrats are defending twenty seats,

0:24:21.160 --> 0:24:23.719
<v Speaker 11>the Republicans are defending ten in the United States Senate,

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:26.919
<v Speaker 11>So the odds look very good for the Republicans on

0:24:26.960 --> 0:24:29.680
<v Speaker 11>the Senate side, and the Senate Republicans have really stayed

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:33.120
<v Speaker 11>as far away as they possibly could from the House Republicans.

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:35.040
<v Speaker 10>Whether you can do that with Trump at the.

0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:37.520
<v Speaker 11>Top of the ticket, that is the big political puzzle

0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 11>I think facing the Republican Party going to twenty twenty.

0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:41.600
<v Speaker 5>Four, this might be a little at a left field.

0:24:41.600 --> 0:24:44.960
<v Speaker 5>But is there any doubt that Kamala Harris is the

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:46.159
<v Speaker 5>running mate for Joe Biden?

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.600
<v Speaker 11>So I have said on Bloomberg that I think Joe

0:24:50.680 --> 0:24:53.640
<v Speaker 11>Biden is running as long as he's walking, talking, and breathing,

0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 11>I still think he's running.

0:24:56.440 --> 0:24:58.200
<v Speaker 10>Maybe there's a little bit more doubt there.

0:24:58.240 --> 0:25:00.800
<v Speaker 11>But Kamala Harris is a big quest question mark, not

0:25:00.800 --> 0:25:03.479
<v Speaker 11>from her perspective but from the Biden team. You know,

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.080
<v Speaker 11>if you really need a Hail Mary and Biden's still

0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 11>the head of the ticket, do you find a way

0:25:08.800 --> 0:25:11.520
<v Speaker 11>to have something else for her to do and she

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:15.280
<v Speaker 11>stays vice president until next year, but find a different

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:18.080
<v Speaker 11>candidate to be VP. So the hail Mary might be

0:25:18.200 --> 0:25:22.160
<v Speaker 11>Raphael Warnock of Georgia. There is no race of note

0:25:22.200 --> 0:25:24.959
<v Speaker 11>in Georgia in twenty twenty four, and certainly no African

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:27.840
<v Speaker 11>American candidate at the top of the ticket statewide. That's

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:30.800
<v Speaker 11>a big difference between twenty and twenty twenty two for

0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:31.480
<v Speaker 11>the Democrats.

0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:34.240
<v Speaker 10>So I think Jordan slips, Georgia slips away. But if

0:25:34.240 --> 0:25:37.159
<v Speaker 10>you have Ralphael Warnock, who's won statewide twice.

0:25:36.880 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 11>In Georgia at on the ticket instead of Kamala Harris,

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:43.120
<v Speaker 11>I think that changes that ticket's odds. So I think

0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 11>the team will have to creative because right now it

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:49.760
<v Speaker 11>doesn't look like it's a compelling enough team to make

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:52.119
<v Speaker 11>sure the same people got out the door in twenty

0:25:52.200 --> 0:25:54.399
<v Speaker 11>twenty and make sure they'll get out the door in

0:25:54.400 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 11>twenty twenty four.

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 2>All right, just thirty seconds left, I mean, is what

0:25:58.400 --> 0:26:00.159
<v Speaker 2>kind of campaign do you think the president by and

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:00.680
<v Speaker 2>we'll run.

0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:03.000
<v Speaker 10>You know, we used to call.

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:05.399
<v Speaker 11>It the Rose Garden strategy, where the presidents didn't leave

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:06.920
<v Speaker 11>the White House they said they were too busy.

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.320
<v Speaker 10>Obama did that in twenty twelve in thirty seconds.

0:26:10.359 --> 0:26:11.960
<v Speaker 11>Let's see how I can do this, And then he

0:26:11.960 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 11>didn't get out the door really until late September October

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:16.080
<v Speaker 11>when Romney was tied with him in the polls.

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:17.920
<v Speaker 10>So I think they're going to do the same thing.

0:26:18.040 --> 0:26:20.040
<v Speaker 11>I think Biden is not going to travel that much

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:22.119
<v Speaker 11>and only get out the door late in the game,

0:26:22.200 --> 0:26:24.359
<v Speaker 11>and we'll see how he does on the campaign trail

0:26:24.760 --> 0:26:28.200
<v Speaker 11>versus the quote unquote vitality that we're seeing from Donald

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:28.880
<v Speaker 11>Trump right now.

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:30.880
<v Speaker 2>All right, Wendy Schilder, thank you so much. We appreciate

0:26:30.920 --> 0:26:35.480
<v Speaker 2>it as always, Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, kind

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:37.480
<v Speaker 2>of giving us kind of the political lay of the land.

0:26:38.480 --> 0:26:40.800
<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty four. John's gonna be here in a matter

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:44.360
<v Speaker 2>of days, and that's just election year.

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:48.680
<v Speaker 5>Momentum, and the lead that the former president has over

0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:51.760
<v Speaker 5>his Republican rivals is really astounding at this point.

0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:55.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's just extraordinary. So it looks like that will

0:26:55.119 --> 0:26:59.000
<v Speaker 2>be former President Trump, at least at this stage, looks

0:26:59.040 --> 0:27:01.280
<v Speaker 2>to be the nominee. We'll see how it plays out

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 2>over the coming months, and there's some primaries and all

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:06.359
<v Speaker 2>that kind of stuff that the politicos like to focus on.

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape. Can's our live program Bloomberg

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:14.199
<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 7>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:27:17.520 --> 0:27:20.320
<v Speaker 7>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:27:26.720 --> 0:27:29.240
<v Speaker 2>We want to get to our C suite discussion, Big

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 2>M and a trade in the airline business Alaska Airlines

0:27:33.240 --> 0:27:37.800
<v Speaker 2>and Hawaiian Airlines. Alaska said that it will be buying

0:27:37.840 --> 0:27:41.920
<v Speaker 2>Hawaiian for one point nine a billion dollars eighteen dollars

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:44.840
<v Speaker 2>a share plus nine hundred million dollars of Hawaiian's debt.

0:27:45.280 --> 0:27:48.879
<v Speaker 2>Joining us right now to talk about this transaction. Peter Ingram,

0:27:49.000 --> 0:27:53.679
<v Speaker 2>the CEO of Hawaiian Airlines joining us via zoom from Hawaii.

0:27:53.760 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 2>Good for you, my friend. So let's talk about this, Peter,

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:01.840
<v Speaker 2>talk to us about this transaction. The market's unsure whether

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:04.480
<v Speaker 2>this deal is going to go through. What's the message

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:08.040
<v Speaker 2>you're giving to the market today about why this deal

0:28:08.080 --> 0:28:09.120
<v Speaker 2>should be done.

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:12.960
<v Speaker 9>Well, we feel very good about the deal that was announced.

0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:16.919
<v Speaker 9>I think it's a good deal for Hawaiian Airlines Hawaiian

0:28:16.920 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 9>Holding shareholders. It's also positive for Alaska. I think it

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.879
<v Speaker 9>sets the company out, the combined company up very well

0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:29.320
<v Speaker 9>to compete effectively in a very dynamic airline market. And

0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:33.760
<v Speaker 9>obviously we're going to work through the regulatory process over

0:28:33.800 --> 0:28:36.639
<v Speaker 9>the next twelve to eighteen months, but we expect this

0:28:36.720 --> 0:28:37.800
<v Speaker 9>transaction to close.

0:28:38.320 --> 0:28:39.840
<v Speaker 12>I want to pick up on that a little bit,

0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:43.600
<v Speaker 12>because of course, the Alaska Airlines investors were really spotted

0:28:43.640 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 12>that right away. This issue about getting this past the regulators,

0:28:46.480 --> 0:28:49.520
<v Speaker 12>and this is not an administration that's very friendly to

0:28:49.560 --> 0:28:53.360
<v Speaker 12>these big mergers. So what's the main point that investors

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 12>should be thinking about, you know, to put some meat

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:59.080
<v Speaker 12>on this idea that the regulatory process will go through.

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:02.479
<v Speaker 9>Okay, Well, I think the regulators will look at this,

0:29:02.880 --> 0:29:06.440
<v Speaker 9>you know, as an individual transaction, and look at it

0:29:06.520 --> 0:29:08.800
<v Speaker 9>on its own merits, and what they're going to see

0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 9>is that you've got two airlines that have very complementary networks.

0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 9>We have, you know, big areas of our network where

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 9>we don't currently compete with Alaska. They also have huge

0:29:22.240 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 9>parts of their network where we don't overlap at all.

0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:28.880
<v Speaker 9>The amount of overlap is very limited, and I think

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:31.400
<v Speaker 9>when people look in into that and dig into it,

0:29:31.520 --> 0:29:32.800
<v Speaker 9>that's what they're going to see.

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:36.320
<v Speaker 2>Alaska Airlines, some of their shareholders are skepule of this transaction,

0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:41.920
<v Speaker 2>suggesting that Hawaiian will not return to twenty nineteen cash

0:29:41.920 --> 0:29:45.080
<v Speaker 2>flow levels. We've got Southwest coming into the market. Talk

0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 2>to us about kind of, you know, the profitability of

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:50.760
<v Speaker 2>your company in today's market.

0:29:51.160 --> 0:29:55.440
<v Speaker 9>Well, we feel very good about our standalone business plan.

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:58.840
<v Speaker 9>This was a deal that came along and provided us

0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:02.120
<v Speaker 9>a new alternative, but we were working very aggressively to

0:30:03.280 --> 0:30:08.640
<v Speaker 9>better our own standalone prospects. Demand remains very strong in

0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:12.560
<v Speaker 9>our core markets between the US mainland and Hawaii. We've

0:30:12.560 --> 0:30:16.520
<v Speaker 9>seen good recovery in the Japan part of our business,

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:20.840
<v Speaker 9>which is a key piece that had lagged recovery during

0:30:21.520 --> 0:30:24.480
<v Speaker 9>the pandemic, but really started to come on since May

0:30:24.520 --> 0:30:28.400
<v Speaker 9>of this past year. Continue to be the market leader

0:30:28.400 --> 0:30:34.360
<v Speaker 9>in our neighbor island business, which represents roughly twenty percent

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:38.000
<v Speaker 9>of our revenue pre pandemic. So as long as we

0:30:38.160 --> 0:30:41.840
<v Speaker 9>compete effectively, I think there's a good market position for

0:30:42.200 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 9>Hawaiian airlines.

0:30:43.480 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 12>I mean, you mentioned Japan. I'm wondering if you can

0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 12>talk a little bit more about flights coming in from Asia,

0:30:49.320 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 12>because with this strong dollar, it might be something that

0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:53.480
<v Speaker 12>is putting a bit of pressure on you there.

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:57.800
<v Speaker 9>I think that will hold the demand back a little bit. Obviously,

0:30:58.600 --> 0:31:02.320
<v Speaker 9>you know, when we were pre pandemic, the end was

0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 9>trading one hundred and five one hundred and ten to

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 9>the dollar. Now it's in the mid one forties, so

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 9>that's a considerable amount of inflation that a Japanese visitor

0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:15.640
<v Speaker 9>looks at when they're coming to Hawaii. But we saw

0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 9>strong recoveries in Australia from South Korea and now even

0:31:22.400 --> 0:31:25.479
<v Speaker 9>you know, Japan has come back over the course of

0:31:25.600 --> 0:31:28.240
<v Speaker 9>this year, and we think that'll that'll prove to be

0:31:28.840 --> 0:31:33.600
<v Speaker 9>a steady recovery going into next year. The affinity of

0:31:35.600 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 9>the Japanese travelers have more Hawaii is really unparalleled. There

0:31:39.840 --> 0:31:42.240
<v Speaker 9>were about a million and a half visitors each year

0:31:43.080 --> 0:31:46.080
<v Speaker 9>before the pandemic, and it may take a little time

0:31:46.120 --> 0:31:48.600
<v Speaker 9>to climb back to those levels, but we think demand

0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:50.719
<v Speaker 9>is going to be very strong over the long term.

0:31:51.280 --> 0:31:52.760
<v Speaker 2>Peter, I'm taking a look at your balance sheet and

0:31:52.760 --> 0:31:54.720
<v Speaker 2>I see you've got about one point three billion dollars

0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.360
<v Speaker 2>of debt maturing in twenty twenty six, A big bullet.

0:31:57.400 --> 0:32:01.520
<v Speaker 2>There's the what's the plan for that assuming this transaction

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:04.080
<v Speaker 2>does not go through? And how much of your balance

0:32:04.080 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 2>sheet kind of brought you to the table to sit

0:32:06.480 --> 0:32:07.640
<v Speaker 2>down with the last Airlines.

0:32:08.280 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 9>Again, we were really confident and remain confident in our

0:32:12.600 --> 0:32:17.960
<v Speaker 9>standalone plan. We've got considerable fleet assets that are unencumbered.

0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:20.800
<v Speaker 9>We've got new seven eight sevens coming on against which

0:32:20.840 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 9>we can borrow, and that one point two billion dollars

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:28.960
<v Speaker 9>of that maturity in twenty twenty six is represented by

0:32:29.160 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 9>a loyalty bond of financing that was raised against our

0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:39.880
<v Speaker 9>brand and our loyalty program, and so with that coming due,

0:32:40.360 --> 0:32:43.680
<v Speaker 9>we would have those cash flows to be able to

0:32:43.720 --> 0:32:46.680
<v Speaker 9>do a financing, and it was under collateralized as it was,

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 9>so I think the prospects for us continuing to be

0:32:49.920 --> 0:32:52.000
<v Speaker 9>able to fund the business are very very strong.

0:32:52.640 --> 0:32:54.040
<v Speaker 12>One thing I wanted to ask you a little bit

0:32:54.040 --> 0:32:56.840
<v Speaker 12>about is your costs, particularly your fuel costs. I mean,

0:32:57.000 --> 0:32:59.520
<v Speaker 12>regardless of whether or not this deal goes through, this

0:32:59.560 --> 0:33:02.080
<v Speaker 12>is something that's been plaguing a lot of people in

0:33:02.120 --> 0:33:03.640
<v Speaker 12>your space, and so can you talk to me a

0:33:03.680 --> 0:33:06.000
<v Speaker 12>little bit about what your expectations are there and how

0:33:06.040 --> 0:33:06.840
<v Speaker 12>you're going to manage it.

0:33:07.120 --> 0:33:09.040
<v Speaker 9>Well, I don't have a crystal ball and where fuel

0:33:09.080 --> 0:33:11.640
<v Speaker 9>prices are going, but I do know that if we

0:33:11.680 --> 0:33:14.160
<v Speaker 9>look back over the last couple of weeks, we've actually

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:16.520
<v Speaker 9>seen some relief in the fuel price numbers, and that

0:33:17.360 --> 0:33:20.720
<v Speaker 9>you know, as we forecast, we just use a forward

0:33:20.800 --> 0:33:25.320
<v Speaker 9>curve going forward, So right now the outlook is a

0:33:25.320 --> 0:33:29.360
<v Speaker 9>little bit better than it used to be. But you know,

0:33:29.560 --> 0:33:33.080
<v Speaker 9>fuel prices are a part of our industry have been

0:33:33.120 --> 0:33:36.360
<v Speaker 9>for a very very long time. For most airlines. It

0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:39.640
<v Speaker 9>is either the largest cost item or the second largest

0:33:39.640 --> 0:33:44.000
<v Speaker 9>cost behind salaries and wages. So we will do what

0:33:44.040 --> 0:33:47.880
<v Speaker 9>we can to conserve. We have a hedging program that

0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:50.560
<v Speaker 9>helps us smooth out some of the volatility, but we

0:33:50.600 --> 0:33:54.680
<v Speaker 9>aren't making bets on where the fuel prices go. I

0:33:54.680 --> 0:33:57.120
<v Speaker 9>don't think that's what our investors want us to be doing.

0:33:58.040 --> 0:34:01.200
<v Speaker 2>Peter, as you and Alaska Air execs sit down with

0:34:01.280 --> 0:34:05.360
<v Speaker 2>the regulators, what are you prepared to do to get

0:34:05.400 --> 0:34:08.759
<v Speaker 2>this deal approved in terms of maybe routes that may

0:34:08.880 --> 0:34:11.800
<v Speaker 2>need to be divested or how flexible can you guys.

0:34:11.719 --> 0:34:14.480
<v Speaker 9>Be I'm not going to get into any of the

0:34:14.680 --> 0:34:17.360
<v Speaker 9>specifics on that, and some of that, you know, obviously

0:34:17.480 --> 0:34:22.560
<v Speaker 9>would would be up to the Alaska team to comment on.

0:34:23.400 --> 0:34:26.880
<v Speaker 9>But the fact of the matter is that these are

0:34:26.880 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 9>two networks that are very complementary. There is a very

0:34:30.040 --> 0:34:35.759
<v Speaker 9>limited amount of overlap. We think the market is incredibly competitive,

0:34:35.840 --> 0:34:39.840
<v Speaker 9>lots of airlines serving Hawaii, and we expect it to

0:34:39.840 --> 0:34:42.880
<v Speaker 9>be very competitive going forward. That's the nature of our business.

0:34:43.800 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 12>Last year, the holiday travel season produced a lot of delays,

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:49.759
<v Speaker 12>a lot of difficulties, and in the airline that came

0:34:49.840 --> 0:34:52.800
<v Speaker 12>under pressure for that was Southwest. How do you feel

0:34:52.840 --> 0:34:55.200
<v Speaker 12>like the industry is fixed up this year to meet

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 12>any difficulties in weather patterns and do you feel like

0:34:58.280 --> 0:35:00.960
<v Speaker 12>Southwest is still on the back foot here? Is this

0:35:01.000 --> 0:35:02.279
<v Speaker 12>something you can take advantage of?

0:35:02.719 --> 0:35:06.520
<v Speaker 9>Well, just comment on our airline. You know, we're very prepared.

0:35:06.680 --> 0:35:11.000
<v Speaker 9>We you know, make sure that we schedule within what

0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:15.239
<v Speaker 9>the capabilities of our fleet and our staffing levels are,

0:35:15.280 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 9>and we feel very good about how we're positioned in

0:35:18.800 --> 0:35:23.640
<v Speaker 9>that regard. Our reliability has been very strong historically, and

0:35:23.680 --> 0:35:27.840
<v Speaker 9>particularly over the last couple of months as we've recovered

0:35:27.880 --> 0:35:33.319
<v Speaker 9>from some infrastructure challenges that played Tontolulu Airport earlier in

0:35:33.360 --> 0:35:36.360
<v Speaker 9>the year. We've been number one and on time performance

0:35:36.400 --> 0:35:39.880
<v Speaker 9>with a very low level of cancelations, and we expect

0:35:39.880 --> 0:35:41.560
<v Speaker 9>to execute well in the months ahead.

0:35:41.920 --> 0:35:44.640
<v Speaker 2>Peter, just thirty seconds, just remind us what's the timing

0:35:44.719 --> 0:35:46.640
<v Speaker 2>of this transactional last air.

0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:48.879
<v Speaker 7>Well.

0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:53.520
<v Speaker 9>The next step is for us to file a proxy

0:35:53.560 --> 0:35:57.000
<v Speaker 9>statement and complete our shareholder vote, which we expect to

0:35:57.040 --> 0:36:01.600
<v Speaker 9>happen in the first quarter of next year, and then

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:05.520
<v Speaker 9>after that is really up to the regulatory process and

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:09.279
<v Speaker 9>the Department of Justice to review. We'll be working on

0:36:10.200 --> 0:36:13.759
<v Speaker 9>filing the information with them and responding to whatever requests.

0:36:14.000 --> 0:36:18.000
<v Speaker 9>We think given the current regulatory environment in the country,

0:36:18.239 --> 0:36:21.719
<v Speaker 9>it could take twelve to eighteen months to complete the

0:36:21.880 --> 0:36:24.200
<v Speaker 9>entire process, but we think it could also go quicker

0:36:24.200 --> 0:36:24.440
<v Speaker 9>than that.

0:36:24.840 --> 0:36:26.640
<v Speaker 2>Peter, thank you so much. For joining us. We really

0:36:26.680 --> 0:36:29.320
<v Speaker 2>appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Peter ingram

0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:32.719
<v Speaker 2>He is the see of Hawaiian Airlines, recently announced that

0:36:32.800 --> 0:36:38.400
<v Speaker 2>Alaska Airline will be acquiring the folks at Hawaiian Airline

0:36:38.400 --> 0:36:41.080
<v Speaker 2>and probably the highlight for Peter ingram As. He is

0:36:41.080 --> 0:36:44.040
<v Speaker 2>an NBA from Duke University's Fucal School of Business.

0:36:44.160 --> 0:36:47.680
<v Speaker 1>This is thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

0:36:48.080 --> 0:36:51.280
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>or whatever.

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<v Speaker 5>Podcast platform you prefer.

0:36:54.080 --> 0:36:57.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen

0:36:57.400 --> 0:36:59.360
<v Speaker 1>seventy three and on bal Sweeney.

0:36:59.400 --> 0:37:02.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm on Twitter pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can

0:37:02.239 --> 0:37:05.439
<v Speaker 2>always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio