1
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,879
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner.

3
00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories,

4
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,560
Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You

5
00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,480
Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast

6
00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,919
Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

7
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:26,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.

8
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:32,800
Speaker 3: Alonzo munos Cio at Hamilton Capital Partners. Where are you

9
00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:34,159
Speaker 3: seeing some animal spirits?

10
00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:36,360
Speaker 4: So there's a lot too unpacked. I mean, in the

11
00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:38,640
Speaker 4: next thirty days, we're going to get in some labor

12
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 4: market data, we're going to get the election, we're going

13
00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,960
Speaker 4: to get fed meeting. So we're still optimistic that the

14
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 4: US par kits can perform. Obviously, we're at the beginning

15
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,440
Speaker 4: of earning season. We've seen some of the banks with

16
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 4: some blockbuster numbers and so for us really leaning to

17
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 4: this equity bowl market. This year alone, the SMP has

18
00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:01,000
Speaker 4: had forty six notches on record highs. So we think

19
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,240
Speaker 4: this can continue on the back of easing monetary policy,

20
00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:08,240
Speaker 4: fiscal stimulus, and potentially some tailwinds from these earnings.

21
00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:10,200
Speaker 2: So I want you to comment on one of the

22
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,920
Speaker 2: headlines today. The pullback that we saw in a big

23
00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 2: way in shares of ASML, big miss on bookings, half

24
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 2: of what the street was looking for here. Obviously, this

25
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,120
Speaker 2: is the high end manufacturer of the chip making equipment

26
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 2: that a company like TSMC would purchase. I think one

27
00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,199
Speaker 2: of these units sells for about one hundred and fifty

28
00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,760
Speaker 2: million dollars. What do you make of this? Is it

29
00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 2: an indication of broader weakness in the economy or is

30
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,479
Speaker 2: it something that is so industry specific we shouldn't get

31
00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:41,800
Speaker 2: too upset about it.

32
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,720
Speaker 4: Well, I think it could be. I mean, for ASML specifically,

33
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 4: some of their biggest customers are Intel in Samsung, and

34
00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 4: we know Intel's had some troubles over the last couple

35
00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,120
Speaker 4: of quarters. When you look at the broader industry specifically,

36
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 4: you look at AMD and n Video, some of the

37
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,320
Speaker 4: feedback from the analyst community and the CEOs themselves has

38
00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,800
Speaker 4: been very positive as they look forward to sales, data,

39
00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 4: revenue and some of the new upcoming chips that they're designing.

40
00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's a little bit of an interesting time

41
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,240
Speaker 3: because you know, we had the Bank of America Investors

42
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,680
Speaker 3: survey and they kind of felt like too many people

43
00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,200
Speaker 3: on one side of the boat. Then you had Goldman

44
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 3: Sachs saying we're going to power through right into the

45
00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,480
Speaker 3: end of the year. And actually, if you look at

46
00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:28,320
Speaker 3: the strategists and their estimates, they're below where it looks

47
00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,040
Speaker 3: like the market is heading. So, you know, are we

48
00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:32,840
Speaker 3: climbing a wall of worry here and do we have

49
00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,560
Speaker 3: room to run or you know, as everybody who wants

50
00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:36,600
Speaker 3: to buy already bought.

51
00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:39,240
Speaker 4: I think there could be a lot of the worry

52
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two was that rates were restrictive and

53
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,720
Speaker 4: monetary policy was you know, really putting a damper on

54
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 4: the equity party. But as we look forward the next

55
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 4: twelve months, it's likely that the Fed now pivots and

56
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,120
Speaker 4: starts to lower rates, and that should be supportive for

57
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,680
Speaker 4: equity markets. I think some of the conversations that you're

58
00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,760
Speaker 4: pointing out and that we're having across with our clients

59
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,120
Speaker 4: or evaluations and we're evaluations or today specifically in some

60
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,799
Speaker 4: of these names that have run up significantly significantly, like

61
00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,560
Speaker 4: in video. However, at the end of the day, when

62
00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,480
Speaker 4: we look at these companies, the bar sit really really high,

63
00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,520
Speaker 4: and they're still continuing to perform they've got a lot

64
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,640
Speaker 4: of cash on hand, and we think that you know,

65
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,799
Speaker 4: less restrictive vounetary policy should be supportive over the next

66
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:17,560
Speaker 4: couple of quarters.

67
00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,880
Speaker 2: So you don't seem to believe that the Fed becoming

68
00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,040
Speaker 2: a little bit more easy in terms of policy. A

69
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,079
Speaker 2: few more raid cuts here is going to come out

70
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,880
Speaker 2: of concern of much greater economic weakness. So you think, really, hey,

71
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,000
Speaker 2: they're going to be successful in getting us this soft landing.

72
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,000
Speaker 4: Well, it's that's a good comment, and that's a good

73
00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,040
Speaker 4: good question. I think if you look at the data,

74
00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,240
Speaker 4: it's sort of been conflicting in some ways that the

75
00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,240
Speaker 4: job s data is okay. CPI and PPI came in

76
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 4: a little bit harder than expected. But then we look

77
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,360
Speaker 4: at you know, the equity markets, and we've had you know,

78
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,720
Speaker 4: pre significant rally coming up, you know, over the last

79
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,800
Speaker 4: couple of months going into the election and into the

80
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. So we think that there's some you know,

81
00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 4: seasonal factors that are supportive of the equity market continuing

82
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,640
Speaker 4: to run higher. And as always, the stock market's going

83
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:03,880
Speaker 4: to climb a wall of worry.

84
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,400
Speaker 3: Well, it seems like a time that is really good

85
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 3: for stock pickers. I guess you can buy the index too,

86
00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 3: is that record high? So when you see company like

87
00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,880
Speaker 3: JB Hunt he shares bounds seven percent in late trading,

88
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,159
Speaker 3: Adida is raising its annual profit target. But then you

89
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,760
Speaker 3: have other companies like Walgreens, Boots Alliance, Struggling and others

90
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,200
Speaker 3: that we report on every day look at ASML. So

91
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 3: are you are you relishing this time for being able

92
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:31,160
Speaker 3: to pick stocks?

93
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 5: Yeah?

94
00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 1: I think certainly that's a good point too.

95
00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,839
Speaker 4: And one thing that we're really looking out for in

96
00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 4: some of these earnings releases is for guidance. We're seeing

97
00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,760
Speaker 4: a little bit of weakness in the consumer. It's very

98
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 4: clear from some of the retailer earnings that have come out,

99
00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,440
Speaker 4: or at least that we've seen, that the consumer is

100
00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 4: pulling back and there's some nervousness about not only the economy.

101
00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,240
Speaker 4: We found it interesting that the consumer sentiment report was

102
00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,279
Speaker 4: so poor, but then you get strong economic data, lower

103
00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:01,720
Speaker 4: unemployment rate, lower jobless claims. It's a really interesting environment

104
00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,680
Speaker 4: and it feeds into that stock pickers market where you

105
00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,640
Speaker 4: can be very selective. Obviously, the financials have done really

106
00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,960
Speaker 4: nicely over the last couple of days, and we're going

107
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,480
Speaker 4: to see how that develops. I think specifically, we're looking

108
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,000
Speaker 4: out for some of the maggot cap large cap tech

109
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 4: companies and seeing how they do in this environment. Given

110
00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 4: the fact that, as you said, the bar is set

111
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,000
Speaker 4: really high.

112
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,000
Speaker 2: What are you seeing right now in the fixed income

113
00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,839
Speaker 2: space that seems attractive here? I mean, if you're right

114
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,320
Speaker 2: and we get many more rate cuts, is the bond

115
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:31,600
Speaker 2: market not a buy right now?

116
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,000
Speaker 4: That's an interesting point. So yields obviously have moved a

117
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,800
Speaker 4: little bit higher, some of that aggressive bet cutting has

118
00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 4: been priced out of the market, and one of the

119
00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,560
Speaker 4: things that we're looking at for is potentially extending some

120
00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 4: duration and locking in some of those yields higher yields

121
00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 4: before we maybe get into a lower rate environment in

122
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:51,719
Speaker 4: the first or second quarter of next year. Or in

123
00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,160
Speaker 4: credit across the different durations as well, we find interesting.

124
00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,040
Speaker 3: Okay, just a really quick question, China question Mark.

125
00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, very confusing. I mean, we saw some data yesterday

126
00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,320
Speaker 4: that was kind of interesting in terms of stimulus at

127
00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,479
Speaker 4: the federal level. It turns out, you know, it's going

128
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,839
Speaker 4: to come in the form of maybe a local refinancing

129
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 4: its eight hundred and fifty billion dollars worth. So it's interesting.

130
00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,359
Speaker 4: I think it's a tough it's a tough decisions for

131
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 4: investors looking at China, you know, and making the plunge

132
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,800
Speaker 4: when if you look back over the last couple of years,

133
00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,520
Speaker 4: it's been really, really tough time to be a China investor.

134
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, Alonzo, great stuff. Thank you for joining us.

135
00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:38,600
Speaker 3: Alonzo munos Cio at Hamilton Capital Partners. It's time to

136
00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 3: check in with Bloomberg Opinion. We are joined by Bloomberg

137
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,920
Speaker 3: News Editor in Chief Emeritus Matthew Winkler, who has been

138
00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,839
Speaker 3: writing about Taiwan and has a piece on the terminal

139
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:54,040
Speaker 3: that is subtitled Taiwan Beats the world with tech driven market.

140
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:54,480
Speaker 1: Halo.

141
00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 3: Matt thanks very much for joining us. I remember, you know,

142
00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,479
Speaker 3: in the days past, when I lived in Want I'd

143
00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,400
Speaker 3: go home and I'd tell people I was living in Taiwan,

144
00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:06,080
Speaker 3: and they'd say, oh, do you speak Japanese. Taiwan wasn't

145
00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:07,280
Speaker 3: on the map then, but it is now.

146
00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:14,840
Speaker 5: Why it's a superative Taiwan is one of the bastions

147
00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,880
Speaker 5: of prosperity in the world right now, and that's because

148
00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,560
Speaker 5: it leads the world with the best performing stock market.

149
00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:26,240
Speaker 5: It's got record exports, it's got a booming real estate market.

150
00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 5: Its cost of living has been one of the best

151
00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 5: and most stable since two thousand and eight. It's got

152
00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,559
Speaker 5: the most stable and least volatile currency after Singapore dollar.

153
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:43,920
Speaker 5: Everybody's heard of semiconductors. That's the place Taiwan where semi

154
00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,800
Speaker 5: conductors of the most advanced type come from. And these

155
00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:52,040
Speaker 5: are the brains of smart phones, everything that you do

156
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:57,040
Speaker 5: with electric vehicles, cloud computing, transition, and so forth. And

157
00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,000
Speaker 5: you would never know how well time is doing because

158
00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 5: the prevailing narrative, as you just said, is invariably about

159
00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:09,080
Speaker 5: some man made disaster or a natural disaster like the

160
00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 5: recent typhoon. But the reality is typhoon are not. Taiwan

161
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,440
Speaker 5: has gone from strength to strength.

162
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,160
Speaker 3: I'm often struck by how people living in Taiwan don't

163
00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,960
Speaker 3: seem as concerned about the geopolitical rivalry obviously with China.

164
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 3: And perhaps that's cultural because we're all Chinese, that's the

165
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,200
Speaker 3: sort of thinking. But when you talk to people there,

166
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,760
Speaker 3: do you sense that that people are not so nervous

167
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,240
Speaker 3: about some impending battle with China.

168
00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,840
Speaker 5: No, I think that's quite right. I think, as you

169
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:46,640
Speaker 5: just said, if you walk anywhere in Taipei, you get

170
00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,480
Speaker 5: a sense that this is a city that is just getting,

171
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,080
Speaker 5: as I said, more prosperous. And the last thing people

172
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,440
Speaker 5: are thinking about is what people outside of China talk about,

173
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,599
Speaker 5: which is this geo political fog that envelops any discussion

174
00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:09,400
Speaker 5: of Taiwan. The reality is, though, that the world, especially

175
00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 5: the number one economy, which is the US, is tethered

176
00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 5: to Taiwan in a way that is exceptional and not

177
00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,680
Speaker 5: likely to change. And that has everything to do with

178
00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 5: I said, is what we call chips semiconductors, and this

179
00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 5: is the place where every major company that does everything

180
00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:34,160
Speaker 5: between your ears gets their chips. And so Taiwan is

181
00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:41,080
Speaker 5: inextricably linked to the prosperity of the United States and

182
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 5: that isn't going to change. And that's a very important characteristic,

183
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:49,240
Speaker 5: and if anything, it's only become more apparent in the

184
00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:50,920
Speaker 5: past ten years, not less apparent.

185
00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:52,280
Speaker 4: Absolutely.

186
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,880
Speaker 3: I'm sure Morris Chang is so proud of what TSMC

187
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,839
Speaker 3: has built. It's really helped put Taiwan on the map.

188
00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,079
Speaker 3: I'm sure you've been given some access and from your

189
00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:05,079
Speaker 3: research you can perhaps answer this question, But what is

190
00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,360
Speaker 3: it that has led to t SMC's success.

191
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,720
Speaker 5: Well, this is a company that I guess you could

192
00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,760
Speaker 5: say is a bit like what Andy Grove created.

193
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:19,000
Speaker 6: You know.

194
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 5: Andy Grove is, you know, one of the founders of Bintel,

195
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 5: and he used to say only the paranoids survive. And

196
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:35,040
Speaker 5: this company, Taiwan Semiconductor, is constantly thinking about what is

197
00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 5: the next new new thing, and that is what makes

198
00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 5: it so innovative.

199
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,800
Speaker 3: Matt, thank you so much for joining us here live

200
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,920
Speaker 3: on the program. Bloomberg News Editor in Chief Emeritus, Matt Winkler.

201
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,959
Speaker 3: You can read more on this and other stories from

202
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,440
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Opinion at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion and on

203
00:10:54,480 --> 00:11:06,480
Speaker 3: the terminal by typing OPI n Go. Olivia Dassier joins

204
00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:10,440
Speaker 3: as head of Investment decision Research for the Asia Pacific

205
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,240
Speaker 3: at Simcorp Olivia. I think ASML is the eight hundred

206
00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,840
Speaker 3: pound gorilla in the room. So let's talk a little

207
00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,719
Speaker 3: bit about the impact on the broader economy, because that's

208
00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,640
Speaker 3: quite relevant for everybody out here. If you look at

209
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,960
Speaker 3: AI accelerators, the demand is massive, Companies like Nvidia can't

210
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 3: even keep up. But then if you look at areas

211
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,880
Speaker 3: like automotive and industrial, customers have been cutting back and

212
00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,520
Speaker 3: they may have quite large inventory, so there's a little

213
00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 3: bifurcation there. So I want to ask you how big

214
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,200
Speaker 3: is the tell from ASML about the global economy.

215
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,640
Speaker 1: I think it's mostly a wake up call to reality.

216
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,080
Speaker 6: We've been saying AI could do all these things, but

217
00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:56,400
Speaker 6: it actually can't. So it can't drive a car by itself. Yeah,

218
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 6: it's still got a long way to learn before it

219
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,439
Speaker 6: can be applied to other things than just chatbots and

220
00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:08,440
Speaker 6: purely technology or internet kind of industries. And I think

221
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 6: that's where a lot of that is coming now. And

222
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,040
Speaker 6: people have rushed to buy these chips because they were

223
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 6: afraid of shortage and not really having tested the applications

224
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,960
Speaker 6: yet or anything yet, and now they're discovering that, Okay,

225
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,439
Speaker 6: it's going to take us a little bit longer, a

226
00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,680
Speaker 6: little bit more testing, a little bit more engineering to

227
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 6: figure out how to really use this in the manufacturing

228
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,200
Speaker 6: of a car or manufacturing of a toaster or anything

229
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,560
Speaker 6: like that. So I think that's what we're seeing. But

230
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 6: at the same time, analysts or investors had really outsized

231
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,640
Speaker 6: expectations for that sector for earnings, for sales and everything,

232
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,439
Speaker 6: just thinking it would go on like that.

233
00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 1: Forever. So I think it's a little bit of a

234
00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,120
Speaker 1: reality check, but not.

235
00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,000
Speaker 6: You know, any kind of red flags yet for global

236
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 6: economy or global tech sector.

237
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,040
Speaker 2: The other part of the story here is the fact

238
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 2: that a lot of the equipment manufactured ASML to actually

239
00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:06,640
Speaker 2: produce semiconductors in cases of more advanced chips. I mean,

240
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,560
Speaker 2: this equipment is restricted. Let's not forget that, right, So

241
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,160
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're the company, might we not here

242
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,240
Speaker 2: in the days ahead? Hey, if you loosen some of

243
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,080
Speaker 2: the restrictions, maybe our performance would be better.

244
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,120
Speaker 6: It could, but I think that's an excuse that no

245
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:27,200
Speaker 6: one would really use. Restrictions have been in place for

246
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 6: a long time, but there are so many loopholes around

247
00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,719
Speaker 6: these things that everybody who needs one can get one,

248
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,000
Speaker 6: so that they don't really work in terms of sanctions.

249
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 3: And another mitigating factor in this might be that a

250
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,040
Speaker 3: company like TSMC, which is ever important on the global stage,

251
00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:49,000
Speaker 3: is getting so good in its efficiency, improving its EUV efficiency,

252
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,160
Speaker 3: that it kind of reduces the need for these specialty

253
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:57,840
Speaker 3: machines that ASML is making. So I guess like what

254
00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 3: you're saying is a little too early to say that

255
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,040
Speaker 3: this is a big read here on the global economy.

256
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,720
Speaker 3: But something worth watching, right.

257
00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 6: Yes, right, And it's worth watching because it's such a

258
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,200
Speaker 6: big part of investors' portfolios nowadays. Right, So they obviously

259
00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,520
Speaker 6: will have taken a hit from that and will be

260
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,199
Speaker 6: invested in be upset. But the performance here to date

261
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,200
Speaker 6: is so good already that it's just really a chip

262
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 6: in the armor.

263
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 2: We were talking yesterday on the program about the new

264
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:30,880
Speaker 2: ideas that the Biden administration has to further restrict semiconductors.

265
00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,560
Speaker 2: I mean, something away from China, maybe countries in the

266
00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,960
Speaker 2: Mid East that are subject to certain export controls. I mean,

267
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,160
Speaker 2: is this going to have a boomerang effect? Maybe we

268
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 2: see certain countries begin to establish blocks independent of let's

269
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,000
Speaker 2: say companies in Europe and the United States.

270
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 1: We may see that.

271
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,160
Speaker 6: I mean, obviously we're moving now to a world where

272
00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:59,480
Speaker 6: there's more adversarial kinds of relationships than friendly or cooperative

273
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 6: kinds of relationships. But you know, as we've seen from

274
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 6: what's happened with Russia and Ukraine and Huawei and all that,

275
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 6: these Kanser sanctions don't work. There's just too many loopholes

276
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,200
Speaker 6: and people can get through them. So I think there's

277
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:16,720
Speaker 6: going to be a rethink of how do we sanction

278
00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 6: regimes or companies or technologies.

279
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 1: There's got to be a better way than than what

280
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 1: we have right now.

281
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 3: Another big topic of interest, another sort of eight hundred

282
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,800
Speaker 3: pound gorilla in the room, is the Chinese economy and

283
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:35,360
Speaker 3: efforts by policymakers to stimulate there. We've seen a lot

284
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 3: of different areas here that they're working on, both from

285
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 3: lowering interest rates and providing money to the banks and

286
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 3: trying to stimulate the property sector. And we've got a

287
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 3: briefing scheduled for tomorrow and housing. Do you think that

288
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 3: this is something that you know has teeth and will work,

289
00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:53,400
Speaker 3: or do you think it will fall short.

290
00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 6: I think we've seen a number of announcements from from

291
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 6: China and from the outset we thought, Okay, this is

292
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,120
Speaker 6: good news. They're realizing they have a problem, and that's

293
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 6: usually the first step in solving it. They've announced several

294
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:12,360
Speaker 6: rescue missions now for the real estate market and the

295
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 6: debt problem that they have, which is massive. But what

296
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:20,040
Speaker 6: we haven't yet heard is an admission that the economic

297
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 6: model that they've been following for the last ten or

298
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 6: twenty years is the cause of these problems. And needs

299
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,240
Speaker 6: to be changed, and they need to turn around their

300
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 6: economic model. They need to change their taxing model, their

301
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 6: fiscal policy, and they need.

302
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 1: To rescue the banks.

303
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 6: And until we see those three things, we're unlucky to

304
00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,080
Speaker 6: believe that this will work. This is just a rescue mission.

305
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 6: It might be a floor for a while, which is

306
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 6: a good thing, but we'll go through the flow next year.

307
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 2: Well, what your suggesting seems to be pretty radical. What's

308
00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: the probability of that type of drastic change occurring? Do

309
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 2: you think.

310
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:58,000
Speaker 6: That's a really big question the very Yes, that's the problem,

311
00:16:58,040 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 6: isn't it.

312
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 3: Well, I think you have really hit at the heart

313
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:02,400
Speaker 3: of the problem.

314
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 4: Though.

315
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 3: I think investors in particular would like to see Shijinping

316
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:11,159
Speaker 3: perhaps show some humility and say that patience is needed

317
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 3: for some of these lofty goals that he has. They're

318
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,439
Speaker 3: worthy goals, but they take time, and you have a

319
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,680
Speaker 3: model in the economy that has to be adjusted. It

320
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,880
Speaker 3: can't happen overnight. In the meantime, let's do this, let's

321
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 3: get the animal spirits going again. But you know it's

322
00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 3: just not very likely.

323
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 1: Yes, I agreed.

324
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 2: What about Japan? I want to ask you very quickly

325
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 2: before we let you go thirty seconds, do you remain

326
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 2: positive on your outlook for Japan.

327
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 6: I think Japan's probably peaked right now. It's had this

328
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,399
Speaker 6: big run for tech and for this supply chain realignment

329
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:47,360
Speaker 6: away from China. The yen is now stabilizing and maybe

330
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 6: strengthening further. So I think probably Japan has peaked this

331
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,400
Speaker 6: year and we'll start to slow down next year.

332
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 3: All right, Olivier, thanks very much for joining us. Olivia Darcier,

333
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 3: head of Investment decision Research for the Asia Pacific at

334
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 3: simcoor David Finnerty Bloomberg FX and rates strategist. So I'm

335
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 3: wondering whether we might be three strikes you're out here

336
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 3: in China. We had the policy the Economic Policy Center

337
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,360
Speaker 3: coming out with what was a disappointing briefing, and then

338
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,439
Speaker 3: the Finance Ministry last weekend, and now we have the

339
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 3: Housing Minister tomorrow. Perhaps that's a cynical look, David, but

340
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 3: what are you expecting to hear from the Housing Minister

341
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,639
Speaker 3: and our investors kind of losing interest in China at

342
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 3: the moment.

343
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 7: I think it's obviously you'd have to assume that any

344
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 7: measures he Mention announces will be to prop up the

345
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 7: party market again, whether that's enough, I mean, given what's

346
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 7: already been elaborate and divulged, you'd have to think it

347
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 7: may not be enough of the market's certainly turned a

348
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 7: bit skeptical. But then again, I think depends on what perspective.

349
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 7: If you're doing it from the yuan's perspective, then a

350
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 7: lot of that is some disappointment, but it's also a

351
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,400
Speaker 7: dollar Suddenly the market's company bullish on the dollar because

352
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 7: obviously they dial back interest rate expectations. But certainly at

353
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 7: the moment, I think the market, it would be fair

354
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 7: to say, is has been a bit disappointed overall with

355
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,120
Speaker 7: what has been announced, but that's been a regular story

356
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 7: that's been going on literally for the last couple of years.

357
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 2: So given the stimulus measures that we've seen from Beijing,

358
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 2: I think the offshore currency was able to break above

359
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 2: the fifty day moving average. I mean, if you look

360
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: at it on a technical basis, how do does the

361
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 2: Chinese currency appear right now?

362
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, certainly it's one of the favorite currencies I'm

363
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 7: just talking to of my trade of contacts, and you know,

364
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 7: for hedge funds, it's definitely one that going into election,

365
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 7: it's one of the currencies to bet against that it

366
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 7: will weaken. And what's been interesting is a lot of

367
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 7: the trades that have been put on in the option market,

368
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 7: what's called vanilla call or from if you're doing dollar yuan,

369
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 7: it'd be dollar yuan vin the calls, which basically those

370
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 7: are out like and what that makes it means is

371
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 7: there's unlimited profits. So normally you put in like a

372
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 7: cool spread or digiti something like that, which is a

373
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 7: bit cheaper to put on, maybe a bit more limited gains.

374
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 7: But in the head of that you if you're doing

375
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 7: an outright call, it depends what strike you're doing it at,

376
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 7: but basically that's more expensive. But obviously you're putting that on,

377
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 7: you think, well, it may be more expensive, but I

378
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 7: think my gains will warrant it. So I think from

379
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 7: the investi viewpoint, you're sunny getting the idea that the

380
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 7: doli one has room to grow and quite decent amount

381
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 7: in the near term based off disappointment over the economy

382
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 7: and obviously the idea that Trump president Donald Trump may

383
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 7: become president next month.

384
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: When you talk to investors, David, what do you hear

385
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 3: them saying about the key to rebuilding confidence of the consumer.

386
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 7: In China, I think, well, I think the property sunny

387
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 7: is one thing. I think in any market, the property's

388
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 7: way down, and that's where a lot of people hold

389
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 7: the biggest asset. So obviously that's declining and that's not

390
00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 7: a positive for just mentality. So I think the pop

391
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,640
Speaker 7: up the property markets certainly the key thing I focus on.

392
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 7: I mean, obviously stock market is a near term you

393
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 7: can get a near term higher that and that can

394
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 7: help pick up the competence. But I think overall property

395
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 7: market just that's literally where most money people have the

396
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 7: money stored, or they have the biggest debt, and hence

397
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 7: ways on psychology the most.

398
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 2: Does it come as a surprise to you that with

399
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: all the uncertainty around China that the Japanese yen hasn't

400
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: been a beneficiary of this uncertainty.

401
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 7: I not so much, really. I think there is some

402
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 7: if it hasn't been really mild risk off, and you know,

403
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 7: very mild at the end of the day, if any

404
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 7: you could say so, you need a heavy risk off

405
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 7: the end to benefit. And you have to remember again

406
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 7: with interest rate differentials sort of favoring dollars, the dollar

407
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 7: against everything at the moment, and you've seen it strengthen

408
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 7: obviously and a lot since the US payroll data came out.

409
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 7: So and the same thing logic certainly applies to the

410
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 7: end because you know the boj they keep saying that

411
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 7: if they meet our outlook reports that econic data does,

412
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 7: then we will hike. But the market's not really at

413
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 7: the moment, not looking for a right price to innovate

414
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 7: hike until mid next year. So unless that trains dramatically,

415
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 7: interest rate differentials continue to favor dolly en slightly to

416
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 7: the upside.

417
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 3: And as you said, after we've got the labor data

418
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 3: and also the slightly harder than expected CPI report, you've

419
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 3: seen the dollar gain over the past month. It's up

420
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 3: about two percent or so. Is this something that continues

421
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: or is there some sort of a ceiling in here

422
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 3: somewhere for the Bloomberg dollar spoting next?

423
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 7: I think in the need there is some sort of seating,

424
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 7: the not being that market price has now gone basically

425
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,880
Speaker 7: just under two quarter point cuts this year. I mean,

426
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 7: really for the dollar to pick up more, you would

427
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 7: you'd really need a bit heavy risk off, which we

428
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 7: don't see at the moment. Could obviously happen, or you'd

429
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 7: obviously need that that tighting to get even tighter. You

430
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 7: could go to one quarter point cut this year, but

431
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 7: the market's always biased towards more weight cuts. So unless

432
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 7: someone like retail sales comes out exceptionally strong US retail

433
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 7: sales it is, then I think the market's going to

434
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 7: hover around that two cuts this year, which will limit

435
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 7: Donald upside. Now I think it's you know, it's dial

436
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 7: back enough, Where's back more in line with expectations of

437
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 7: what the FED is saying and what the data is

438
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 7: sort of saying as well.

439
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 2: Do you believe that the US presidential election three weeks

440
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: from tonight is going to be a market moving event?

441
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 7: Oh, obviously I do. I think if if a gentleman

442
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 7: wins it, donald Trump wins, I think it will purely

443
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 7: because of what he's posturing with the tariffs and stuff.

444
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 7: So currencies will certainly move on that, and you know,

445
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 7: I think equities will react as well, So I think

446
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 7: there'll be a bigger reaction to him. Now. Having said that,

447
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 7: what's interesting about Donald Trump is, you know the dollar

448
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 7: we take dollars example, when he won in twenty sixteen,

449
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 7: if you look at the boomber dollar index or a

450
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 7: dollar index. It rallied going into his actual presidential nomination, sorry,

451
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 7: actual inauguration, and then actually weakened and then it was

452
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 7: flipped all over the place, but most time it's actually weaker.

453
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 7: And what I'm trying to say from that is is

454
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 7: sort of buy the room to sell. The fact at

455
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 7: the moment is you know they're going to buy if

456
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 7: Donald Trumps wins, it's buy the dollar blah blah blah.

457
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 7: And then reality is when he gets into become president,

458
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 7: what does he actually do? And of course, at the

459
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 7: end of the day, how is the US economy fair?

460
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 7: What does interest rates? What does the Fed do? So

461
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 7: that will be the bigger picture, but in the near

462
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 7: term that does will dominate the dollar theme.

463
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 3: So we've got gold and the vics at kind of

464
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 3: higher levels, yet we've got equities at highs.

465
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 7: What gives That's a good question. The moment, I don't

466
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 7: I think gold stays elevated. I think, you know it

467
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 7: really spending something straight. I think at the moment, I

468
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 7: don't leave him going. I think the VIX gives. If

469
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 7: I have to give anything, I think volatility there will

470
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 7: calm down. That's what I would say we give.

471
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: Many thanks to David Finnerty Bloomberg Facts and Rates Strategies.

472
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you

473
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 2: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

474
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more

475
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to

476
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you'll listen

477
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

478
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.