WEBVTT - GameStop Investor on 'Good Guy vs Bad Guy' Trading Face-Off

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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<v Speaker 1>with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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<v Speaker 1>along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>and on Bloomberg dot com. Now, I want to get

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<v Speaker 1>to somebody who knows I'm no aful lot about game Stop.

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<v Speaker 1>He's been involved with the company for a decade. He's

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager at Permit Capital and his name is John Broderick. So, John,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining. I have to ask you if you

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<v Speaker 1>can give us any details that you can about you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how you own game Stop and what you own right now.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure I can't really go into the details of

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<v Speaker 1>what we own right now. We reduce our position somewhat

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<v Speaker 1>given the meteoric rise of stock. UM but we UM

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll just I'll just leave it there. UM. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we got involved with the stocks ten years

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<v Speaker 1>ago because it was just just this amazing UM it

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<v Speaker 1>had this amazing business where they were engaging with UM

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<v Speaker 1>this very dedicated group of customers. The power of rewards

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<v Speaker 1>customers and it was a very efficient business model that

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<v Speaker 1>that fell on hard times with digital disintermediation, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of turnover in C suite. UM. But we believe, we

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<v Speaker 1>believe in the company, and we stuck with it. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, we we I partnered with Kurt Wolf that

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<v Speaker 1>has to be a capital uh this time last year,

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<v Speaker 1>and we ran a proxy campaign successfully and got ten

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<v Speaker 1>new board members, including Kurt Um onto the board. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that, UM my sense is that that

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<v Speaker 1>caught the attention of other people and special to retail,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly Ryan Cohen, who UM you know it understands a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about specialty retail, at least on in the online domain.

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<v Speaker 1>And UM, it's just we we've never looked back from there.

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<v Speaker 1>So game Stop is a trading halted. Uh. Once again here, John, Look,

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<v Speaker 1>can you tell us I'm not sure if you've if

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<v Speaker 1>you've been in touch with anybody at the company over

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<v Speaker 1>the last level days. What are they thinking, uh in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of what's going on in the marketplace. I have

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<v Speaker 1>no idea. I have no idea. My my sense is

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<v Speaker 1>that they're talking. I would have to imagine that there's

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<v Speaker 1>been a lot of internal discussion about this. UM. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know about the situation, UM, but I have no

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<v Speaker 1>I have no idea. I I what the what the

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<v Speaker 1>company UM's planning to do, what they might do? I

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<v Speaker 1>just have no idea. I think they're about to were

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<v Speaker 1>about to close the quarters. So they are in a

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<v Speaker 1>blackout period and they will be UM for another couple

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks. UM. But you know, certainly with the move

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<v Speaker 1>in the stock, I'm sure there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people inside game stop talking about what they you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what they can you know, what they can do UM strategically, John,

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<v Speaker 1>I have to ask you what you make of this movement? So,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean literally more than three million members of this

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Beth subreddit now, and the kind of language

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<v Speaker 1>on here is so I mean, it's it's deserves studying

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<v Speaker 1>in itself. It's that rhetoric that we've been getting used

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<v Speaker 1>to about, you know, the think going to the moon

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<v Speaker 1>and the rocket emojis and so on, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>take all the cash you can afford to lose and

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<v Speaker 1>bye bye bye. Is this something that should ever be

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<v Speaker 1>associated with a stock? UM? I don't know. UM, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess I guess I would say why not? Uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a it's a free market, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>a free wold and um, you know, as long as

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<v Speaker 1>the people in those chat rooms are are not you know,

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<v Speaker 1>telling lies or you know, or disclosing material not public information.

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<v Speaker 1>I just don't see how that's an issue. People are

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<v Speaker 1>free to talk about investing ideas, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that there is something there's always you know, you want

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<v Speaker 1>speech to be free, but you also want to speech

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<v Speaker 1>to be responsible. And I'm not I'm not that familiar

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<v Speaker 1>with small street sets, but what I have seen is

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<v Speaker 1>it's really just a lat of um um recycling of

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<v Speaker 1>the same you know, of the same emojis, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the rocket to the moon and and uh diamond pans

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<v Speaker 1>and and so on. And I think that the I think,

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<v Speaker 1>what what what these amateur investors have have sniffed out

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<v Speaker 1>is how vulnerable um the short the short sellers are here.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a short interest based on the most recent AS

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<v Speaker 1>three data that I thought, maybe it's a little bit higher.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how that resolved. Yeah, I just want

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<v Speaker 1>to follow up if I can, Paul, I hope you

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<v Speaker 1>don't mind. Um, how are they sticking it to the man?

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<v Speaker 1>If there's pushing the stock higher, they're only sticking to

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<v Speaker 1>the short sellers, John, I, I don't understand how they

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<v Speaker 1>think they're getting the better of the institutional money that

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<v Speaker 1>are in some of these stocks. And we're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the major institutions like black Rock and Vanguard. They're happy

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<v Speaker 1>out with this movement. That's a fair point, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a fair point that you know, if they're if

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<v Speaker 1>they're sticking it to um, you know, a large hedge

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<v Speaker 1>fund that has a big short position, or is Wong

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<v Speaker 1>Poots or something, certainly, you know they might be hurting them,

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<v Speaker 1>but creating an enormous opportunity and and windfall for other

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<v Speaker 1>long oriented institutional holders. UM I would I would say

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<v Speaker 1>to that that, uh, you know they I think the

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<v Speaker 1>narrative here is just it's sort of the us against

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<v Speaker 1>them narrative. It's the dark side and the light side.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a it's a and it's it's you know where

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<v Speaker 1>Ryan Cohen is. They're kind of hero. Um. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>guy named d F D. I'll just leave it at that,

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<v Speaker 1>UM who's also kind of a folk hero. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>them versus the sort of big guys on Wall Street,

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<v Speaker 1>whether those big guys right, the big guys on Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street quote unquote or not a monolithic group. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>very diverse group of people. But UM, they just that's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a simple narrative. And whether or not it's

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not what in fact they're doing is really

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<v Speaker 1>sticking it to the man, as you say, I uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't think they see it that way.

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<v Speaker 1>They just say, okay, if we can, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>take a you know, a hedge fund to its knees.

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<v Speaker 1>That that's that's good enough for them. All right, John,

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<v Speaker 1>you've been a shareholder in this company, UM, what can

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<v Speaker 1>you tell us about the business? What's the investment thesis here? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean this is a company that UM, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you if you if you turn back five years

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<v Speaker 1>when um, maybe even longer than that. Now with Paul

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<v Speaker 1>Rains a CEO, is a company that was performing really

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<v Speaker 1>really well. The returns on invested capital far keep that

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<v Speaker 1>of the other UM of the other specialty retailers out there.

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<v Speaker 1>And they again they just fell on hard times. They

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<v Speaker 1>had a lot of turnover in the CEO suite. UM

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<v Speaker 1>Digital disti amreiation really hurt, the length of the console

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<v Speaker 1>cycle really hurt. And the UM the the there is

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<v Speaker 1>just the company just fell on hard times. UM. But

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<v Speaker 1>when you when you when you think about this category,

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<v Speaker 1>how big the video game industry is, and what kind

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<v Speaker 1>of role they can play in it. There's a big,

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<v Speaker 1>big opportunity here. I don't know if they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to capitalize that. I don't think anybody knows, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>but there is a big opportunity where you already have

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<v Speaker 1>four millions dedicated power up rewards members to UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you can figure out a way to re engage

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<v Speaker 1>that customer, you can figure out a way to uh

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<v Speaker 1>to to just excite I think that's Ryan Cohen's wards

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<v Speaker 1>more in his UH in his letter to the shareholders.

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<v Speaker 1>If you can figure out a way to excite these

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<v Speaker 1>these members, you know, there's a lot of uh you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's there's a lot of revenue potential there. What would

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<v Speaker 1>you say to the leadership now of game Stop? What

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<v Speaker 1>should they do with all of this extra cash? Presumably

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<v Speaker 1>they should be very very afraid that it will all

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<v Speaker 1>go away very quickly and that the stock might drop.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't don't know that that would happen, but it's a

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<v Speaker 1>sure possibility. What should they do today and tomorrow? You

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<v Speaker 1>know they're look pretty deposition is actually pretty good. So

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that they need could necessarily issue stock

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<v Speaker 1>um and uh, I think that they should just sort

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<v Speaker 1>of keep doing what they're is distracting as this is.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think I've got a hundred million dollar

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<v Speaker 1>at the money UM shelf registration done. You know, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>they raised some equity here. I don't know, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>really need the money. They they they're liquidity again, it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good. Um, if there is an opportunity, maybe they

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<v Speaker 1>see an opportunity here to raise some more capital to

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<v Speaker 1>to uh just finance some of those uh those growth initiatives.

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<v Speaker 1>But I just described you know, I don't know how

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<v Speaker 1>capital intensive they're uh they're initiatives might be, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it might make sense at these levels to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>And and frankly, you know, the stock is so elevated.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, let's say that they issued I'm gonna throwing

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<v Speaker 1>this number out there. If they issued half a million shares, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're raised, I don't know where the stock is

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<v Speaker 1>now A hundred three hundred thirty dollars. If a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars of capital, who can't fifty five minutes down

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<v Speaker 1>in the chair, and you know that's not really not

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<v Speaker 1>even a surrounding her. As a former banker, that would

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<v Speaker 1>be my advice. John Broderick, Portfolio managed for Permit Capital.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate that. We

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<v Speaker 1>want to continue this conversation now with two more people

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<v Speaker 1>who know a lot about what's going on. We have

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<v Speaker 1>Jim Anderson, the CEO of Social Flow on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>with us. Sara Phonts like in studio, she's Bloomberg a

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<v Speaker 1>cross us a reporter. Sarah, let me quickly get to

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<v Speaker 1>you because give us an update. We've had a clamp

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<v Speaker 1>down from the brokerages and a lot of these stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, where do we stand right? We have so

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<v Speaker 1>from robin Hood. We've heard from another app called Trading

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<v Speaker 1>to one two also Interactive Brokers. So where we stand

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<v Speaker 1>now is that it seems as though robin Hood has

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<v Speaker 1>actually made it as though no new shares of a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of stocks can can be purchased. So game stop

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<v Speaker 1>AMC no kia Over at Interactive Brokers, they made some

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<v Speaker 1>changes to their margin requirements and they also made it

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<v Speaker 1>so that no new options positions can actually be opened

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<v Speaker 1>in some of these stocks as well, and that also

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<v Speaker 1>includes BlackBerry, the likes of Trading Too one two for example,

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<v Speaker 1>they seem to be saying that they're no longer taking

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<v Speaker 1>new users because they're just inundated with volume at the time.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's just been back and forth really for the

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<v Speaker 1>past twenty four hours. But yesterday evening after markets closed

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<v Speaker 1>after four pm, for a short period of time, we

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<v Speaker 1>saw a reddit go private, then we saw Shar's fall.

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<v Speaker 1>They came back public. But now this is weighing on

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<v Speaker 1>the stairs too. Jim, I want to bring you in, Jamanderson,

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of so Social Flow, Jim, give us a sense.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what's different about this from my perspective. I've

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<v Speaker 1>been in this stocks game for thirty years and people

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<v Speaker 1>always trying to squeeze shorts. But what's different this time

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<v Speaker 1>is social media and how that's leveraging the voices here.

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<v Speaker 1>What are you seeing? Yeah, exactly, I think you know this.

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<v Speaker 1>This has some of the hallmarks of a pump and

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<v Speaker 1>dump scheme. I know you've been talking about that, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's obviously a concern, but it sort of meets the

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<v Speaker 1>emotion of a mega rally, right. That's what difference is

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<v Speaker 1>time is the social media is the mechanism by which

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<v Speaker 1>is being amplified. But it's it's not clear if the

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<v Speaker 1>greater joy is coming from actually making money, but from

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<v Speaker 1>sticking it to the hedge fund in the long street types.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's pretty remarkable. Yeah, But as I keep saying, Sarah,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they're only sticking it to the short hedge funds.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not sticking to the long hedge ones of anything.

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<v Speaker 1>They're helping them out, you would think so. But something

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<v Speaker 1>that has been interesting lately is if there's an E

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<v Speaker 1>t F that's g v I P GO and it

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<v Speaker 1>actually tracts hedge fund long positions too. And while today

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<v Speaker 1>it's having a bounce back up about three percent or so,

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<v Speaker 1>so outpacing the market, the SMP, for example, is up

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<v Speaker 1>a lesser. I'm trying to pull it up right now,

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<v Speaker 1>one and a half percentum. But if you look for

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<v Speaker 1>the past couple of days, there's been talk of some

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<v Speaker 1>of these hedge funds having to de gross and what

0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:30.040
<v Speaker 1>that's done is weighed unpopular long hedge fund positions as well.

0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:32.439
<v Speaker 1>Before today we had seen this g v I P

0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:35.640
<v Speaker 1>E t F down five straight days. Yesterday was down

0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.800
<v Speaker 1>four point three percent. Meanwhile, your most shorted basket was

0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.040
<v Speaker 1>up nine percent. So you see others being pulled into

0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:44.960
<v Speaker 1>it too. And yes, they might mostly be sticking it

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.600
<v Speaker 1>to Melvin Capital, to Andrew Left, to Citron, for example,

0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:50.719
<v Speaker 1>But the way they view it, it it seems, especially when

0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:52.360
<v Speaker 1>you look at these message boards and you read the

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.360
<v Speaker 1>way that they speak, they see it as a a

0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.960
<v Speaker 1>larger entity. They see it as a larger establishment, and

0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:01.400
<v Speaker 1>they say that if they can be successful and they

0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:05.760
<v Speaker 1>can prove that they can move markets and get a

0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:08.640
<v Speaker 1>group of people together and make a lot of money

0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.440
<v Speaker 1>on on the behalf of some of them, then then

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.680
<v Speaker 1>they're sticking it to the man. So yeah, it's interesting.

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:17.240
<v Speaker 1>And Jim, you know, I've seen from some Wall Streets strategists,

0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, lists of stocks that have a lot of

0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.240
<v Speaker 1>short interest. I mean, is your expectation as you take

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a look at what's happening on social media, is this

0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 1>something that's a flash in the pan or do you

0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:28.360
<v Speaker 1>think this might be with us for a while, this

0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.120
<v Speaker 1>type of trading. You know, my expectation, this is gonna

0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.800
<v Speaker 1>be with us for a while. Again, the emotion is law, right,

0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:35.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look at where we are politically and what's

0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:37.679
<v Speaker 1>going on in the world of politics, and I think

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.800
<v Speaker 1>this is just the financial manifestation of that. So to say, oh,

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:42.480
<v Speaker 1>it's just a flash on the plant pan and it's

0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.679
<v Speaker 1>going to go away maybe not supported by people's emotion.

0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:47.880
<v Speaker 1>But the other thing I'll add is, you know, we

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 1>we typically look at big tech, right, look at the

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 1>facebooks and the twitters and YouTube and by Google, et cetera.

0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:54.800
<v Speaker 1>But look at the names that we're talking about. Those

0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.439
<v Speaker 1>are there, But really this is read it and Discord

0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.760
<v Speaker 1>and the stock trading app robin Hood. You know, this

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 1>is not just a big tech story. There's lots of

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 1>smaller tech involved as well. And I think that the

0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:07.920
<v Speaker 1>morphing and evolving of this to not just be a

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.320
<v Speaker 1>big tech story is another piece that we need to follow.

0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Sarah mc is down the moment. I'm just curious, is

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.440
<v Speaker 1>this because of the rules that the brokerage is put

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:19.560
<v Speaker 1>in place? And are we going to see a return

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.840
<v Speaker 1>to some kind of normality because runaters are not happy

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.199
<v Speaker 1>about this. They're not happy about not being able to

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.600
<v Speaker 1>take on the free market in all its glory. They're

0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:29.360
<v Speaker 1>not happy about it at all. And it does seem

0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:31.680
<v Speaker 1>to be the case earlier today. So for example, game

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 1>Stop is currently down. You mentioned a MC currently down.

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.480
<v Speaker 1>They were just halted due to a volatility halt and

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 1>they just became unhlted and are moving once again. But yeah,

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 1>when you looked at the news coming out this morning,

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the first to really cross the tape was from Robin

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.199
<v Speaker 1>Hood that customers were saying that they were facing restrictions

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.640
<v Speaker 1>on buying some of these stocks. And you immediately, I mean,

0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean immediately you looked at Game Stop and it

0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:58.200
<v Speaker 1>turned negative after trading above five dollars a share just

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>within a few minutes. So does seem to be where

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 1>this is stemming from today? All right, both of you,

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.520
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for your insights. We continue to

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:11.560
<v Speaker 1>follow this story all day. Obviously, the regulators and you know,

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.199
<v Speaker 1>agencies like the FED aren't or can't do anything much

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.839
<v Speaker 1>about this yet. But the brokerages are taking matters into

0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.200
<v Speaker 1>their own hands. Will see how the likes of the

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 1>Reggit traders respond to that throughout the Dame that is

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 1>Jim Anderson of Social Flow and of course our own

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 1>Saraponza across as a reporter here at Bloomberg. And once

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 1>again a MC is down. But don't forget it did

0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.240
<v Speaker 1>have that more than runoff the other day, so it

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 1>has plenty of room to spare. And in terms of

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 1>the major industries, we're seeing a bounce back today, the

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>SMB up one and a half percent. But we're going

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>to talk something slightly different now because we want to

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 1>bring in our next guest, who apparently, as as as

0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 1>far as we know, let's put it that way, he

0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>has nothing to do with game stoff these days. Jim

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.840
<v Speaker 1>Keen is CEO of Steelcase, which is a leading manufacturer

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>furniture for offices, hospitals, and class rooms. Jim, first of all,

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>I presume, I mean, are you tempted as a as

0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 1>a civilian to join this this uh this town car Well,

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.600
<v Speaker 1>I am a video gamer. I love playing video games,

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.280
<v Speaker 1>but I'm standing on the sidelines for this. Yeah, I

0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>mean I think it's it's it's it's probably wise talk

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>to us about orders. Are people looking for furniture to

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.800
<v Speaker 1>go back to offices, hospital and classrooms at any greater

0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 1>other rate than they were over the last few months

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>at this point, I'd say it's still pretty um muted.

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, people are mostly working from home, as you know,

0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:37.040
<v Speaker 1>especially large corporations, certainly health care classrooms, education are doing

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.520
<v Speaker 1>things as they prepare for what's next, and uh, of

0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:42.960
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing corporate office is beginning to take those actions

0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>as well. So well, it hasn't necessarily turned into orders,

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:50.680
<v Speaker 1>yet we're seeing an increasing activity because with the vaccine coming,

0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>there's an end in sight. And what what we're hearing

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 1>from our clients. In fact, I just had a conversation

0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:58.720
<v Speaker 1>yesterday with one of our clients, the head of real

0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 1>estate of you know me, your kind of top fifty company,

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.320
<v Speaker 1>had just got off the phone with his CEO who

0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:05.680
<v Speaker 1>wanted to know how are they were going to come

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 1>back to the office. How are they're changing the office

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.720
<v Speaker 1>to prepare for what's next. So, uh, it's on everyone's

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 1>mind and I think it's all coming So Jim, I

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 1>guess we'll all figure out at the same time. Uh,

0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know how and to what the great people will

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 1>go back to the office. What do you think employees

0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>want and need when they come back to the office.

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.720
<v Speaker 1>Great questions. So we we spent this last year's studying

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 1>actually connecting with people around the world as they were

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>working from home to learn about their work from home

0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:38.080
<v Speaker 1>experience and to try to understand what they might expect

0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 1>when they come back to the office. So and we

0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>learned a ton. I mean, we learned a lot about

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the work from home experience. What we learned about their

0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 1>expectations is, Uh, first of all, safety, You know, safety

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 1>is not going to be less of the concern. Vaccines

0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 1>are gonna solve a lot of problems, but they're not

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>going to completely eliminate COVID. Safety will still be on

0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.880
<v Speaker 1>the minds of people, particularly as they come back to

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:02.240
<v Speaker 1>offices that had over time become you know, really dense,

0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.560
<v Speaker 1>really open. There's going to be some common sense adjustments

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.479
<v Speaker 1>I think needed to reassure people that when they come

0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.400
<v Speaker 1>back to the office that they'll be safe and it'll

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.359
<v Speaker 1>be safe to take off their masks again. A second

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>thing we heard from everyone is belonging. Uh, the the

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:20.080
<v Speaker 1>relationships we all built when we can work face to face,

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:24.919
<v Speaker 1>we're still leveraging. But over time those relationships begin to atrophy,

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.240
<v Speaker 1>and it doesn't help us with that new employee who joined.

0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.159
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't help us as we change teams or organizations shift.

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.119
<v Speaker 1>So people want a sense of belonging, They want to

0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 1>be connected with each other, and they're looking forward to

0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 1>coming back to the office for that reason as well,

0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>and I think UM thirdly as productivity, we heard this

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot well. In some ways people were able to

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.320
<v Speaker 1>sustain pretty high levels of productivity at home, and in

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:50.000
<v Speaker 1>some cases people felt they were even more productive because

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.959
<v Speaker 1>they could work in an uninterrupted way for longer periods

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.360
<v Speaker 1>of time. People also realize they're missing something, they're they're

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:58.080
<v Speaker 1>not learning as much from their colleagues. They are not

0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:02.040
<v Speaker 1>able to have maybe some of the more informal task

0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.440
<v Speaker 1>pascit learning opportunities that you have when you when you

0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of just brush up against people, or you get

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.280
<v Speaker 1>to see how someone handles the situation kind of from

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the side. So those are some of the things people

0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.680
<v Speaker 1>are looking forward to as they think about coming back

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>to the office. So, Jim, you know, where are you

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.480
<v Speaker 1>seeing the orders coming in from these days? Is more hospitals?

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Is it more headquarters with you know, desks and lamps

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 1>and you know, standing desks and things like that, or

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 1>or have you had to pivot your supply chain and

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 1>your your work environment differently. Well, I'd say, first of all,

0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.159
<v Speaker 1>it's different by regions. So it's a global company. UM

0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Asia was the first to see the COVID crisis, but

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 1>also Asia was the first to come out of it,

0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 1>and they haven't really seen the second and third waves

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.359
<v Speaker 1>the way we have in Europe and the US. So

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:57.119
<v Speaker 1>in Asia we're seeing business return to more normal levels

0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.240
<v Speaker 1>across across a wide range of companies, and that's good

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 1>sign for the rest of our business because you know,

0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.919
<v Speaker 1>eventually we hope to be in that same spot. In

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:09.960
<v Speaker 1>markets like the US, customers like healthcare organizations, education have

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:14.120
<v Speaker 1>remained pretty strong throughout. I'd say where orders have been

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:16.720
<v Speaker 1>the weak as it's among the largest companies who are

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 1>often in headquarters buildings in the largest cities. That's where

0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 1>the commutes are the toughest that you have to deal

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 1>with elevators and things like that. So the very largest

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.440
<v Speaker 1>customers have cut back the most, and our business has

0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:33.160
<v Speaker 1>been the strongest among mid market, smaller companies that aren't

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.240
<v Speaker 1>facing a lot of the same challenges. They're more distributed

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.879
<v Speaker 1>around the country. So, Jim, when when you talk to

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.720
<v Speaker 1>UH senior managers of the of the companies that you

0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:45.120
<v Speaker 1>do business with, what do they ultimately believe will be

0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.040
<v Speaker 1>the kind of the new normal workforce? Will everybody come back?

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 1>Will everybody come back on a kind of a split

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:57.639
<v Speaker 1>type of schedule will what's what's the thinking. So the

0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.520
<v Speaker 1>thinking is that most people will work from home a

0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:02.960
<v Speaker 1>day or two a week if that's what they choose

0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:04.680
<v Speaker 1>to do, and that the last part of it is

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.960
<v Speaker 1>really important. It's about choice. I'd say this is not

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 1>that different really from what progressive companies were doing before

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 1>all this. Most of our clients, who are kind of

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 1>at the leading edge of thinking about how to use

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>the workplace, gave people the choice if you wanted to

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:21.520
<v Speaker 1>work from home before a day or two a week,

0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 1>you could do so. And that's that's probably going to

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.240
<v Speaker 1>just be more common across the broader range of companies.

0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Now some people are are saying, well, you know, there's

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:32.320
<v Speaker 1>a handful of companies that are saying, well, maybe we're

0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna have everybody work from home, or we're gonna have

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.280
<v Speaker 1>nobody work from home. That idea that a company is

0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:40.439
<v Speaker 1>going to try to control that, I think is a

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 1>bad idea and I don't think it's going to be

0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:44.159
<v Speaker 1>successful in the long run. So I think the biggest

0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 1>changes that employees will have more choice, and the other

0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:51.840
<v Speaker 1>change I think is that now that the office will

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:54.480
<v Speaker 1>have to compete against working from home, the office will

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:57.879
<v Speaker 1>have to step it up. So it's no longer going

0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:00.399
<v Speaker 1>to be acceptable that when I come into the office,

0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>I can't find a place to concentrate, or I can't

0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 1>connect to a video call that I have to be on,

0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:08.800
<v Speaker 1>or or all the things that maybe you were able

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:11.439
<v Speaker 1>to do at home, depending on how your home situation was,

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>you should be able to do that and more when

0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:15.280
<v Speaker 1>you're in the office. And I think a lot of

0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:17.679
<v Speaker 1>companies that are looking at that and saying, Okay, we

0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:20.040
<v Speaker 1>have to we have to make sure our offices are safe,

0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 1>they have to be productive, they have to be inspiring.

0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 1>So this is another I think important piece. You know,

0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:29.880
<v Speaker 1>if these days everyone's thinking about competitive advantage, it wasn't

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:32.160
<v Speaker 1>that long ago when the main conversation would be about

0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:35.879
<v Speaker 1>digital transformation, or we'll be talking about destructive forces in

0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 1>your industry, thinking about how you can innovate more quickly,

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and ceo s were recognizing that to have a competitive

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.680
<v Speaker 1>advantage in those areas, you needed to have a culture

0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:51.959
<v Speaker 1>that's supported higher levels of trust, that attracted the right

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.280
<v Speaker 1>kinds of people to your organization. These are all very subtle,

0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:57.560
<v Speaker 1>but this is what competitive advantage has come to. I mean,

0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:00.119
<v Speaker 1>it's it's very small things that the fine winner and

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.320
<v Speaker 1>losers in business these days. If you have everyone working

0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:07.200
<v Speaker 1>at home, your your people's homes are no different in

0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:09.760
<v Speaker 1>your competitors homes, you've basically given up an accepted parity.

0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:11.639
<v Speaker 1>And I think a lot of companies are saying, we

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.320
<v Speaker 1>can't accept that. We have to have a work environment

0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:18.280
<v Speaker 1>that competes, where we can advance our culture, where we

0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:20.520
<v Speaker 1>can help people connect to the purpose of our organization,

0:22:20.680 --> 0:22:23.600
<v Speaker 1>we can inspire people. Where are people learn faster than

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:27.160
<v Speaker 1>our competitors people? And that's that's the new aspiration for

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:29.959
<v Speaker 1>a better a better way of working. Jim, What are

0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:35.760
<v Speaker 1>input costs like these days? Highly volaso right, So in

0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:39.360
<v Speaker 1>some for some commodities we see lower costs and then

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:41.159
<v Speaker 1>for other things in the short run thing, but like

0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:44.880
<v Speaker 1>steel and transportation, we've seen higher costs. But it's it's

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.280
<v Speaker 1>a very unstable situation, you know, steal in particular. So

0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:49.919
<v Speaker 1>how do you deal with that? I mean, do you

0:22:50.000 --> 0:22:52.560
<v Speaker 1>change the pricing that you charge your customer is constant

0:22:52.600 --> 0:22:55.120
<v Speaker 1>day or do you just eat the higher prices when

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:57.359
<v Speaker 1>they come. Must be so difficult to deal with that.

0:22:58.000 --> 0:23:00.439
<v Speaker 1>We have long term contracts with our wires, but we

0:23:00.440 --> 0:23:03.160
<v Speaker 1>also have long term contracts with our customers. We don't

0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:07.640
<v Speaker 1>try to change the prices constantly us. We can't, so

0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:10.439
<v Speaker 1>there's a certain amount of observing the ups and downs.

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 1>But if you're managing your business properly, you capture the

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:16.120
<v Speaker 1>ups and you capture the downs, and so it kind

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:18.920
<v Speaker 1>of takes it comes out in the wash in the end. Yeah,

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 1>that's kind of where I want to go, Jim. I mean,

0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:22.040
<v Speaker 1>talk to us about supply chain. We don't. We haven't

0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:23.879
<v Speaker 1>talked about that in a while here with some of

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>the issues with China that were you know so much

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.480
<v Speaker 1>in the news. Pre covid talked us about your supply

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:32.480
<v Speaker 1>chain and kind of what you're seeing. Our supply chain

0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 1>is distributed around the world and it's primarily set up

0:23:35.440 --> 0:23:38.840
<v Speaker 1>to support local customers. So in the America's most of

0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:41.399
<v Speaker 1>our product comes from factories in the Americas. In Asia

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.680
<v Speaker 1>to serve Asian customers, it comes from factories in Asia

0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:47.359
<v Speaker 1>and the same in Amia, so we have kind of

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:50.600
<v Speaker 1>a regional structure. We do have some components that are

0:23:50.640 --> 0:23:53.879
<v Speaker 1>made in one region that support the entire world, So

0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:55.879
<v Speaker 1>they may be made in Asia and they shipped to

0:23:55.920 --> 0:23:58.399
<v Speaker 1>the US. And they ship to Amia. But for the

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.879
<v Speaker 1>most part, we try to keep our supply change relatively

0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:02.720
<v Speaker 1>short and close to the markets so we can keep

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:05.920
<v Speaker 1>our lead times down and that helps us during times

0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:08.359
<v Speaker 1>of destruction. But it doesn't mean we're immune, you know,

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:10.600
<v Speaker 1>We're still dealing with you know, making sure that we

0:24:10.640 --> 0:24:13.040
<v Speaker 1>can get our products on two containers which are in

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:16.280
<v Speaker 1>short supply, and and so we still face our own

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 1>set of challenges. Has been difficult not to be able

0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:24.159
<v Speaker 1>to travel, you know. It has, of course because you

0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:27.520
<v Speaker 1>missed that face to face interaction. But like anybody else,

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:30.160
<v Speaker 1>we're also using video a lot so and I would

0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:32.600
<v Speaker 1>imagine in the future and when we're hearing this from

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:35.000
<v Speaker 1>our clients as well, everyone is learning what are the

0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:37.320
<v Speaker 1>things that you can do without traveling, and what are

0:24:37.359 --> 0:24:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the things that you should spend more time doing when

0:24:40.359 --> 0:24:43.200
<v Speaker 1>you when you go through the effort of traveling. So,

0:24:43.320 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 1>for example, UM, in the past, I might travel and

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:48.959
<v Speaker 1>dedicate a lot of time to going through business reviews

0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:51.359
<v Speaker 1>in different regions. I can do a lot of that

0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>over video. But what I can't do is have breakfast, lunch,

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.080
<v Speaker 1>and dinner with all the people that I meet, you know,

0:24:56.119 --> 0:24:58.480
<v Speaker 1>and that's actually the most valuable part of the traveling

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:01.199
<v Speaker 1>is the things you learn around the edges of what

0:25:01.240 --> 0:25:03.919
<v Speaker 1>you're doing. Hey, Jim, thanks so much for joining us.

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:07.440
<v Speaker 1>We appreciate it as always. Jim Keane, President CEO of Steelcase.

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:11.120
<v Speaker 1>They are based in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on the future

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:17.119
<v Speaker 1>of the new work environment post pandemic. Busy night for

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:20.040
<v Speaker 1>tech investors last evening we had a bunch of big

0:25:20.040 --> 0:25:24.919
<v Speaker 1>tech NATUS report earnings, including Apple and Down. We do

0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:27.719
<v Speaker 1>it with our good friend Dan Ives, Managing director Equity

0:25:27.760 --> 0:25:32.240
<v Speaker 1>Research at web Bush Securities, and a Penn State alum.

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:35.919
<v Speaker 1>All right, Dan, let's start with Apple. Some blowout numbers,

0:25:35.920 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 1>over a hundred billion in revenue and a quarter. You

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 1>have the stocks off a couple of percent. I know

0:25:39.760 --> 0:25:42.520
<v Speaker 1>it's put up about over to traillion twelve months. What

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:45.120
<v Speaker 1>did you make of the numbers last night? I mean,

0:25:45.280 --> 0:25:47.920
<v Speaker 1>I think in all my years cover and Apple, this

0:25:48.000 --> 0:25:51.360
<v Speaker 1>is one to frame for the history of books in Cupertina,

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:56.000
<v Speaker 1>our five billion dollar blowout on iPhones. I think what

0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:58.879
<v Speaker 1>we saw last night is that the super cycle there

0:25:58.960 --> 0:26:02.200
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of hype, but the reality meant to

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>high and actually exceeded. And I think this is really

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:07.680
<v Speaker 1>going to be the path to a three trillion dollar

0:26:07.760 --> 0:26:10.359
<v Speaker 1>mark Apple over the next six to nine months. For Apple,

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:13.160
<v Speaker 1>despite you know a little bit of a knee jerk

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:17.199
<v Speaker 1>negative reaction today, what keeps it going? So you know,

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:19.840
<v Speaker 1>we're in a pandemic, people are on their phones a lot.

0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:22.320
<v Speaker 1>You can potentially see why Apple might do well in

0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:25.240
<v Speaker 1>this quarter, but what keeps it going from here on

0:26:25.440 --> 0:26:28.640
<v Speaker 1>out at least for the next few quarters. Down Sure,

0:26:28.680 --> 0:26:30.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot of it. And the reasons the supercycle is

0:26:31.080 --> 0:26:35.160
<v Speaker 1>fort of the installed its three hundred fifty million iPhones

0:26:35.280 --> 0:26:38.680
<v Speaker 1>have not upgraded three and a half years, and you're

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:42.399
<v Speaker 1>seeing just a massive upgrade opportunity as well as five

0:26:42.480 --> 0:26:45.159
<v Speaker 1>G and that's going to continue be a catalyst for

0:26:45.200 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 1>the coming quarters. We think this will equipse the record

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:51.320
<v Speaker 1>from two thousand and fifty for iPhone units, which is

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:54.240
<v Speaker 1>two one million units. We could be looking two hundred

0:26:54.280 --> 0:26:57.800
<v Speaker 1>forty two and fifty million units this time. But services,

0:26:57.920 --> 0:27:01.120
<v Speaker 1>that's the key. Services We've believe got the big part

0:27:01.160 --> 0:27:03.720
<v Speaker 1>of the re ratings. Services alone, I believe it's worth

0:27:03.800 --> 0:27:06.760
<v Speaker 1>one point two to one point three trillion, and that's

0:27:06.760 --> 0:27:09.080
<v Speaker 1>why this is still a green light to own this name.

0:27:09.400 --> 0:27:11.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think we saw last night just puts another

0:27:11.880 --> 0:27:14.720
<v Speaker 1>feather in the cap for Cook in terms of for

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 1>investors in the bull case. Dan talks us about China.

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:20.199
<v Speaker 1>There was a you know point, let's call it a

0:27:20.280 --> 0:27:23.480
<v Speaker 1>year or so ago when trade tensions were uh, you know,

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:26.399
<v Speaker 1>really ratcheting up here and we were concerned about supply

0:27:26.480 --> 0:27:29.240
<v Speaker 1>chains and China and tariffs. Talk to us about that.

0:27:29.280 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 1>What's the company saying on those those issues this time around. Yeah,

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:34.440
<v Speaker 1>when you think about Apple, I mean Apple is really

0:27:34.480 --> 0:27:36.920
<v Speaker 1>the poster child with the US China called tech boy,

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:39.000
<v Speaker 1>and we've seen it overhang over the last year and

0:27:39.000 --> 0:27:43.439
<v Speaker 1>a half. But yet now China supply chain issues have

0:27:43.520 --> 0:27:47.920
<v Speaker 1>really corrected themselves, ratching down of tensions between the US

0:27:47.960 --> 0:27:51.120
<v Speaker 1>and China. Bullets for Apple and Semis. But the most

0:27:51.160 --> 0:27:54.159
<v Speaker 1>important thing too is demand. About demand is going to

0:27:54.240 --> 0:27:57.320
<v Speaker 1>come at China in that group fifty seven percent year

0:27:57.320 --> 0:27:59.920
<v Speaker 1>of the year. So it really just shows the hard

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:03.480
<v Speaker 1>some lungs of this upgrade cycle as China and you

0:28:03.520 --> 0:28:07.520
<v Speaker 1>are seeing massive demand for Apple and for iPhones coming

0:28:07.560 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 1>out of China, which is huge. That that's really something

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:12.879
<v Speaker 1>that's a signal that we're going to see over the

0:28:12.920 --> 0:28:15.679
<v Speaker 1>coming quarters at this place more and more of a

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:19.320
<v Speaker 1>part not just on iPhones but services. And that's a

0:28:19.359 --> 0:28:22.480
<v Speaker 1>big part of the re rating that we're seen. Talk

0:28:22.520 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>to us about Tesla because a sixth straight profitable quarter.

0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:28.600
<v Speaker 1>It really had a great quarter. Stalk down about three percent.

0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:30.119
<v Speaker 1>But as you say, this could just be you know,

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:32.840
<v Speaker 1>similarly to Apple, a little bit of cell on the news.

0:28:32.920 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 1>But what happens going forward with Tesla can to keep

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>up the record. I think right now we're in a

0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>golden age of e vs three percent penetration globally going

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 1>to timber next three to four years. GM just talked

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:47.760
<v Speaker 1>about going all e V and when you look at

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Tesla in the e V markets, Tesla's world, everyone else's

0:28:51.720 --> 0:28:55.560
<v Speaker 1>paying rent. Last night's numbers route US lit't need jerk

0:28:55.640 --> 0:28:59.400
<v Speaker 1>negative reaction just we'll call conservative guidance for two thousand

0:28:59.440 --> 0:29:01.840
<v Speaker 1>twenty one. But that's what you want to see them do.

0:29:01.960 --> 0:29:04.560
<v Speaker 1>You don't want to see any of these companies, given

0:29:04.600 --> 0:29:08.920
<v Speaker 1>this backdrop, to come out and have aggressive guidance. And

0:29:09.120 --> 0:29:11.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think when as we look out right now,

0:29:11.400 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 1>the trajectory could be a million plus units of deliveries

0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:19.120
<v Speaker 1>by two thousand twenty two and a more profitable Tesla.

0:29:19.520 --> 0:29:23.160
<v Speaker 1>That's why we believe both case twelve fifty with our

0:29:23.160 --> 0:29:28.040
<v Speaker 1>base case price target. Dan talk to us about profitability

0:29:28.320 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 1>at Tesla on a unit basis. Do they make any

0:29:32.120 --> 0:29:37.640
<v Speaker 1>money manufacturing cars? Is is just the the credits, you know?

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 1>I think that's always been a bit of the misnomer

0:29:39.640 --> 0:29:42.440
<v Speaker 1>and the bull bearer thesis is that a year and

0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:45.320
<v Speaker 1>a half ago that could have been the argument today

0:29:45.480 --> 0:29:50.320
<v Speaker 1>given increased profitability, especially in China. We think the average

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 1>car sold in China is about twenty percent more profitable

0:29:54.000 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 1>than the US because the Giga three and what they've

0:29:56.960 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 1>built in terms of the ecosystem China and go and forward.

0:30:00.600 --> 0:30:03.840
<v Speaker 1>I believe they're profitable, not just on the actual car.

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:06.280
<v Speaker 1>And of course tax credits are going to continue to

0:30:06.320 --> 0:30:09.520
<v Speaker 1>be a talent even with by administration. I think dub

0:30:09.640 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 1>went down on tax credits and restoring them to Tesla.

0:30:12.920 --> 0:30:14.760
<v Speaker 1>But at the end of the day, the reddings in

0:30:14.800 --> 0:30:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the rear view mirror, that's how they got in t

0:30:16.680 --> 0:30:19.680
<v Speaker 1>SUP five D and that continues to be a focus

0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:22.720
<v Speaker 1>of investors as we look forward into the next three

0:30:22.800 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>to four years. Briefly down almost at a time, but

0:30:26.080 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 1>it could a Reddit brigade do something to any of

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:31.120
<v Speaker 1>the stocks that you covered. You imagine, are you a

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:33.320
<v Speaker 1>little bit nervous that's something that you know they might

0:30:33.360 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 1>train their eyes on one of your coverage stocks. Yeah.

0:30:37.640 --> 0:30:39.080
<v Speaker 1>And I think when you look at Tessa and some

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:41.240
<v Speaker 1>of the fang names, I mean they Robbins had a

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:44.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of noise, but ultimately it's a market force that

0:30:44.760 --> 0:30:46.880
<v Speaker 1>needs to be focused on. It's going to be here

0:30:46.920 --> 0:30:50.160
<v Speaker 1>to stay in terms of the Reddit social media robin hood.

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:54.040
<v Speaker 1>But when you look at these names, fundamentally, I continue

0:30:54.080 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 1>to think they continue to go up into the right

0:30:56.520 --> 0:31:00.600
<v Speaker 1>r V text box, are up another over then next year.

0:31:01.000 --> 0:31:03.320
<v Speaker 1>And what we're seeing with the rhetory doesn't make is

0:31:03.360 --> 0:31:06.240
<v Speaker 1>any more cautious or risk off on our names like you.

0:31:06.360 --> 0:31:10.320
<v Speaker 1>This is a contained risk situation, especially when we look

0:31:10.360 --> 0:31:15.160
<v Speaker 1>at names like Tessa, Microsoft, Apple or others. Dan ives

0:31:15.200 --> 0:31:17.440
<v Speaker 1>what Bush Security is always amazing to speak with you.

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:19.720
<v Speaker 1>Thank you for all of your analysis on Apple and

0:31:19.720 --> 0:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>Tessa that reported yesterday. Of course we'll speak to you

0:31:22.160 --> 0:31:26.840
<v Speaker 1>again soon. And it's interesting Paul Alexandria Ocasio Cortez jumping

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 1>in on the side of the redditor saying that we

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:32.120
<v Speaker 1>must know more about robin hood Apps decision. At the

0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:34.880
<v Speaker 1>same time, of course, employees of game stop for a

0:31:34.920 --> 0:31:37.040
<v Speaker 1>little anois because they're not benefiting at all for many

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:41.360
<v Speaker 1>of this. Thanks for listening to Boomberg Markets podcast. You

0:31:41.400 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 1>can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or

0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:48.479
<v Speaker 1>whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on

0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Bonny Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on

0:31:51.080 --> 0:31:54.040
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always

0:31:54.040 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 1>catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.