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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarckley and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us on the Wednesday edition

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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV and radio. You can also find

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Speaker 2: us on YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live. As Washington

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Speaker 2: reels and many world capitals reel from the most recent

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Speaker 2: post from President Trump regarding the war in Ukraine. He's

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Speaker 2: back in Washington now, of course, was at Ona yesterday

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Speaker 2: of the United Nations General Assembly.

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Speaker 3: We brought you his address live here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: That was followed by a series of bilateral meetings, including

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Speaker 2: one with Volatimer Zelenski, talking of course, about the war

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine. Just weeks out for President Trump hosted Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Putin at a summit in Alaska with hopes of finding

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Speaker 2: some path to peace that, of course, has not emerged.

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin has continued to attack civilian neighborhoods and increase

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Speaker 2: the level of bombardment and drone attacks across.

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Speaker 3: The entire country of Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Following that meeting with Zelensky, President Trump posted again it

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Speaker 2: was before he headed home last evening to write, I

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Speaker 2: think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is

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Speaker 2: in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine

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Speaker 2: back in its original form, going on to say the

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Speaker 2: original borders from where this war started very much an option.

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Speaker 2: He called Russia a paper tiger, said later Ukraine will

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Speaker 2: be able to take back their country in its original form,

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Speaker 2: and who knows, maybe even go further than that. It

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Speaker 2: is unclear exactly what he meant by certain elements of

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Speaker 2: this post, but clearly a different tune, a different emotion

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Speaker 2: from the president who also just a few months ago

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Speaker 2: excoriated President Zelensky in the Oval Office, saying he didn't

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Speaker 2: have the cards, no leverage. We've heard lines like it

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Speaker 2: takes two to tango. Zelensky was asked about all of

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Speaker 2: this in an interview on Fox News, clearly surprised himself

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Speaker 2: by what President Trump said.

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Speaker 4: Let's listen, so we understand now that we are ready

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Speaker 4: to finish this war as quick as possible, and he

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Speaker 4: wants and I want, and how our people want but

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Speaker 4: he understand that Puttin doesn't want and understand that he

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Speaker 4: is not winning, but he sales to everybody that he

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Speaker 4: will win.

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Speaker 3: And I see very this was a surprise for me.

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Speaker 4: You're right, I was very positive signals so from the

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Speaker 4: side that Trump and America will be with us to

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Speaker 4: the end.

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Speaker 3: Of the war.

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Speaker 2: Clearly surprised, as I'm guessing Nick Wadams was as well.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Nash security team leader is in New York to

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Speaker 2: cover the United Nations meetings and with us now on Bloomberg. Nick,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you from New York. You know

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Speaker 2: the line out there. It's all has to do with

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Speaker 2: whomever President Trump talked to last. Is it as simple

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Speaker 2: as that in this case, or did he have other

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Speaker 2: conversations around the UN maybe other phone calls recently that

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Speaker 2: changed his mind, or maybe Vladimir Putin has simply worn

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Speaker 2: out as welcome.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 6: I think it's probably a mixture of all of those.

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Speaker 6: Certainly he has been a lot more impatient with Putin.

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Speaker 6: He came in thinking, you know, Putin wanted to do

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Speaker 6: a deal, and he thought he could have this thing

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Speaker 6: wrapped up pretty quickly. Obviously it has.

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Speaker 3: Not turned out that way.

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Speaker 6: I think the subtext though, of that tweet in particular,

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Speaker 6: or that social media post, is maybe a little more

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Speaker 6: unsettling than folks may think. I mean, if you read

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Speaker 6: to the end, he says, I wish both countries well

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Speaker 6: will continue to supply weapons.

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Speaker 3: Good luck to all.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you know, so there is a theory of

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Speaker 6: the case out there that essentially what he's doing is

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Speaker 6: stepping away from this whole thing. So the US is

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Speaker 6: going to send weapons to European countries, to sell weapons

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Speaker 6: to European countries, and they could then send them onto Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: But he's not otherwise getting involved. And you know, so

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Speaker 6: in some ways, when you look at this, you think, Okay,

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Speaker 6: maybe it's a change of heart. But at the same time,

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Speaker 6: it also looks a little bit like a stepping back,

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Speaker 6: which is definitely not what European countries in Ukraine would want.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you're changing the way I think we're all

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Speaker 2: looking at this as we speak.

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Speaker 3: Nick.

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Speaker 2: In any event, he writes, yeah, I wish both countries

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Speaker 2: well will continue to supply weapons to NATO, for NATO

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Speaker 2: to do what they want with them, right, good luck

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Speaker 2: to all, and he signs it. Donald J. Trump President

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Speaker 2: of the United States of America. Was that his mic

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Speaker 2: drop then, Well, I.

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Speaker 6: Mean, that's a great question, because you know, it feels

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Speaker 6: like we've had so many mic drops from the president.

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Speaker 3: He's got a lot of mics to drop, I guess.

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Speaker 3: I mean.

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Speaker 6: The interesting thing here, and it's all it is a

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Speaker 6: dangerous game to try to parse the president's words and

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Speaker 6: social media posts because one suspects that these do not

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Speaker 6: go through any sort of vetting process and maybe just

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Speaker 6: reflect where his.

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Speaker 3: Head is at that moment.

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Speaker 6: But you know, for a long time, we were hearing,

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Speaker 6: essentially this administration from the President on down all say

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Speaker 6: that Ukraine was going to have to make concessions on land,

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Speaker 6: and it was coming out of that meeting with Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 6: The expectation at the time was that we were going

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Speaker 6: to be on a path to some sort of concrete

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Speaker 6: plan that would involve land swaps. You know, Russia took

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Speaker 6: land after the invasion and it was likely that they

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Speaker 6: were never going to give it up. Now President Trump

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Speaker 6: is essentially saying, yes, we think Ukraine can get back

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Speaker 6: all of its land. So whether or not the US

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Speaker 6: is involved, clearly he heard something that makes him think

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Speaker 6: Ukraine can be successful there. That's what we're really trying

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Speaker 6: to figure out. What was said in that meeting with

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Speaker 6: Zelenski or what piece of information did the President get

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Speaker 6: to think that the heat that it's possible Ukraine could

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Speaker 6: retake all its land. Of course, a big question for

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Speaker 6: us it does the President even remember that he said

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Speaker 6: earlier that concessions might be necessary, and does he sort

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Speaker 6: of acknowledge that that seemed to be a policy that

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Speaker 6: he was holding, or is he now just sort of

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Speaker 6: shifting on to something else. It's just so confusing. It's

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Speaker 6: really hard to make sense of what the President actually believes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean that's why we're talking this out,

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Speaker 2: because we're not going to figure that out definitively in

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Speaker 2: this conversation. There's a whole other theory out there right now,

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Speaker 2: Nick that Vladimir Putin is steps ahead and is in

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Speaker 2: fact trying to divide NATO by flying these incursions. Fighter

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Speaker 2: jets are drones into NATO countries like Poland and Estonia,

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Speaker 2: causing them to scramble jets, and the President yesterday said

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Speaker 2: NATO should shoot down Russian jets that breach their airspace,

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Speaker 2: which by the way, would be a very new and

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Speaker 2: escalatory policy here. The idea though that, for instance, Hungary

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Speaker 2: may not agree with this or some other NATO members,

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Speaker 2: What will Turkey think of this? And Putin is well

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Speaker 2: aware that he could add a whole new stress point

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Speaker 2: to the NATO Alliance with the help of Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: saying things like this, Does that hit home for you?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think you know it's not. Wouldn't necessarily be

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Speaker 6: four dimensional chess to suggest that, you know, Vledimir Putin

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Speaker 6: is testing the boundaries of the NATO Alliance and also

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Speaker 6: testing its will to push back. So yes, there is

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Speaker 6: the idea that you know, Putin is sort of a

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Speaker 6: master strategic thinker. But in a lot of ways this

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Speaker 6: feels pretty obvious. We've known for a long time that

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Speaker 6: he's wanted to drive a wedge between the US and

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Speaker 6: other members of NATO and within Europe, members of the

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Speaker 6: European community like Hungary for example, that are a little

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Speaker 6: more in his camp versus others, and this would be

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Speaker 6: a good way to do it. I mean, Russian aircraft

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Speaker 6: testing the boundaries both at NATO and in the US.

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Speaker 6: I'm thinking up you know, where the US and Russia

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Speaker 6: border each other, Alaska and the Russian Far East. You've

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Speaker 6: seen many times in the last many years where US

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Speaker 6: fighter jets have been deployed to keep an eye on

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Speaker 6: Russian aircraft that drift a little close to the US border.

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Speaker 6: So I think it's safe to assume that any time

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Speaker 6: you see this happen, it is not a mistake, especially

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Speaker 6: when man Russian aircraft are involved. Of course, should be

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Speaker 6: said that Russia denies that that's what happens here. They

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Speaker 6: say they were flying on a well established quarter. But yes,

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Speaker 6: I think there is that desire to cause that, to

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Speaker 6: create that wedge between the US and Europe. And then

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Speaker 6: you know it also does just create confusion because you

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Speaker 6: have Trump saying that, but you know he said that

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Speaker 6: about shooting down jets hours after Marco Rubio, his Secretary

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Speaker 6: of State, said listen, no, we should not be shooting

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Speaker 6: down these jets unless Russia actually attacks. So again you're

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Speaker 6: seeing a lot of the confusion about what exactly US

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Speaker 6: policy is right now.

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Speaker 2: Always a fascinating conversation, if not a definitive one with

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Speaker 2: Nick Watams. Good luck with your coverage at the UN, Nick,

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Speaker 2: and thank you as always for being with us. Just

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Speaker 2: want to mention very quickly a red headline just across

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Speaker 2: the terminal. It's not having to do with this, but

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Speaker 2: in fact, Oracle launching an eighteen billion dollar investment grade

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Speaker 2: bond sale. Oracle shares which have been on a tear

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Speaker 2: lately are down about three and a half percent, now

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Speaker 2: still holding above three hundred dollars as we consider it.

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Speaker 2: The options moving forward here and whether in fact President

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Speaker 2: Trump is leaning into Ukraine or dropping the MIC. I

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Speaker 2: think the options we just established with Nick Watams, who

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Speaker 2: wanted to spend some time with Anya Manuel Aspen Strategy

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Speaker 2: Group executive director, former US diplomat. I remember having a

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Speaker 2: really fascinating conversation last time you were on, Anya, and

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Speaker 2: things have changed a bit with regard to the President's

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Speaker 2: tune here, and I'm wondering if you take him at

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Speaker 2: his word.

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Speaker 7: Good to be with you, Joe, Yes, I think this

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Speaker 7: is a big turn in policy and it's very welcome,

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Speaker 7: and I think Vladimir Putin has finally worn out the

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Speaker 7: patients of this president, which is a good thing and

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Speaker 7: a long time coming. So I hope that now the

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Speaker 7: US backs this welcome statement by President Trump with action.

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Speaker 7: If you look at what the Biden administration did, they

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Speaker 7: gave over sixty six billion in military and other assistants

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Speaker 7: to Ukraine. The President Trump and his administration have not

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Speaker 7: said no to that.

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Speaker 8: Now NATO will pay for those arms. They're just starting

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Speaker 8: to flow.

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Speaker 7: I think one billion has been released, but that's obviously

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Speaker 7: too little, too late. We need to do more faster

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Speaker 7: to actually give the Ukrainians what they need to win back,

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Speaker 7: maybe not all the territory, but even some of the territory,

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Speaker 7: to put themselves in a better negotiating position, because, as

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Speaker 7: we've learned with Vladimir Putin, you don't get anywhere unless

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Speaker 7: you get there from strength.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and so I'm curious what type of

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Speaker 2: strength think the president is referring to here. Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: writes Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and

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Speaker 2: this is the time for Ukraine to act. Is he

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Speaker 2: talking about a military offensive or some sort of economic

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Speaker 2: maneuver that we're not talking about.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I can't speculate on what the President meant, but

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Speaker 7: Russia is in big economic trouble. They have put their

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Speaker 7: entire economy on a war footing. So that's artificially propping

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Speaker 7: up GDP growth. I do think even though it was

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Speaker 7: a little hamhanded to just punish India. The idea of

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Speaker 7: really trying to do our best to crack down on

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Speaker 7: some of these Russian oil exports, to put on maybe

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Speaker 7: some limited secondary sanctions. It's hard to get those to

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Speaker 7: work perfectly, but the idea of putting more pressure on

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Speaker 7: Putin is very welcome. And I also would say I

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Speaker 7: really welcome the president's remarks about NATO airspace quant As

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Speaker 7: you know, Putin sent a bunch of drones over into Poland.

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Speaker 8: That was not an error, as you and Nick discussed.

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Speaker 7: I think the polls reacted right in exactly the right way.

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Speaker 8: Denmark, it's a little less clear. And Putin does this perfectly.

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Speaker 7: He always tests and tests and tests until somebody pushes

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Speaker 7: back hard.

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Speaker 8: So I'm glad we're pushing back.

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Speaker 2: Well, how far should we push back? President says you

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Speaker 2: ought to shoot him down. You get MiG thirty ones

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Speaker 2: in your airspace, shoot him down. That's also a pretty

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Speaker 2: good way to start a war, correct. The Russians are

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Speaker 2: pretty good about implying different motives when they're caught in

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Speaker 2: the act. Our fighter pilots for decades have been intercepting

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Speaker 2: Russian bear bombers and fighter jets in airspace over Alaska,

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Speaker 2: for instance, Should we be shooting down Russian jets if

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Speaker 2: they incur an Article four as opposed to five offensive here?

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Speaker 7: I think you leave this to the NATO planners and

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Speaker 7: strat just obviously we stick to NATO Article five, which

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Speaker 7: means an attack on one is an attack on all.

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Speaker 7: So far, what you've seen from the Russians is incursions

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Speaker 7: via drones, not so much man jets. So I think

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Speaker 7: the idea that NATO is standing together. I thought the

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Speaker 7: Europeans did really well this summer when you had Mark

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Speaker 7: Rutta from NATO and a bunch of European leaders show

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Speaker 7: up at the Oval Office to say basically, we stand

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Speaker 7: with you America, we stand with you Ukraine. And that's

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Speaker 7: kind of the strong symbolism that Vladimir Putin needs to see.

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Speaker 2: We heard from Voladimir Zelensky today at the UN. It

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Speaker 2: was his chance to speak from the same speaker's rostrom

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Speaker 2: that we saw Donald Trump in yesterday. He spoke to

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Speaker 2: the veracity of institutions, and there's been a big conversation

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Speaker 2: about that this week. Certainly the President Trump tried to

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Speaker 2: engage in one yesterdays see chastise the UN for doing

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Speaker 2: a little more than writing strongly worded letters. I want

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Speaker 2: you to hear what President Zelenski had to say earlier today,

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Speaker 2: and we'll have you respond.

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Speaker 4: Let's listen, even during bloodshat, there isn't a signal international

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Speaker 4: institution that can truly stop it. That's how weak these

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Speaker 4: institutions have become. What cans Doon, or Somalia, or Palestine

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Speaker 4: or any other people living through war really expect from

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Speaker 4: the UN or the global system.

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Speaker 2: If you're having a hard time hearing that on the radio,

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Speaker 2: he was referring to Sudan, Somalia, or Palestine, any other

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Speaker 2: people he said living through war what they should really

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Speaker 2: expect from the UN and the global system. Do we

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Speaker 2: expect too much from this institution holding its General Assembly

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Speaker 2: this week?

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Speaker 9: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: I think international institutions are only as powerful and effective

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Speaker 7: as its members allow them to be. And the United

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Speaker 7: Nations is a collection of member states, and so if

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Speaker 7: the most senior leaders of that on this nation on

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Speaker 7: the Security Council disagree, obviously the UN is hampered in

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Speaker 7: its effectiveness. But I would say, look, the US attacking

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Speaker 7: the UN as being in effective is not new. We

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Speaker 7: also still put a large part of the bill, and

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Speaker 7: to echo what President Zelenski said, the UN does an

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Speaker 7: enormous amount of good. They deploy seventy thousand peacekeepers around

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Speaker 7: the world. The World Food Program feeds one hundred and

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Speaker 7: fifty million people a year. The World Health Organization coordinates

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Speaker 7: responses to big the public health outbreak. So there are

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Speaker 7: a lot of things that the UN is doing, even

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Speaker 7: if it may not be possible for that institution to

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Speaker 7: solve the biggest wars unless it's members permitted to.

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Speaker 4: Do that.

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Speaker 3: Really something.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure where we're going here, Anya, but we'd

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Speaker 2: love to stay in touch with you on this because

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Speaker 2: this does feel like a bit of an inflection point,

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Speaker 2: and I'm glad you could spend some time with us

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Speaker 2: today on Bloomberg from the Aspen Strategy Group, the executive

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Speaker 2: director former US diplomat on Ya menwel with us here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 2: Glad you're along today on the Wednesday edition. We're going

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Speaker 2: to assemble our panel next with much more to talk

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Speaker 2: about here in Washington. It's not just geopolitics, but domestic

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Speaker 2: politics we pay attention to with truly one week to

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Speaker 2: the day before a possible government shutdown. If they can't

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Speaker 2: figure out a deal. It will be, in fact next

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Speaker 2: Wednesday that you and I are here talking about what

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Speaker 2: agencies are going to stay open and which might have

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Speaker 2: to wait, who will be essential and who will not

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Speaker 2: stay with us on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: All at once here in Washington.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Radio and on YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live, because

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Speaker 2: you're gonna want to see and listen to.

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Speaker 3: Terry Haynes when he joins us in a moment.

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Speaker 2: Yes with me in Washington is Mario Parker, and Mario,

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Speaker 2: the Democratic leader in the House, is calling out another taco.

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Speaker 2: How came jeffries on X Trump always chickens out? He says,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump just canceled the high stakes meeting in the

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Speaker 2: Oval Office with myself and leader Schumer, remembering, of course,

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Speaker 2: as we told you yesterday, they were supposed to meet

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Speaker 2: on Thursday.

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Speaker 3: This was supposedly on the books.

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Speaker 10: Yes, absolutely, you're seeing the frustration here from Schumer and

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Speaker 10: Jeffries now as well, invoking the taco jive the Trump.

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Speaker 3: Hey, I'm sure that applies in this case, does it?

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Speaker 4: Not?

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Speaker 3: Sure it applies in this case.

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Speaker 5: But they want a meeting, right and then they know

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Speaker 5: on the other side that Mike Johnson and John Dune

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Speaker 5: are both working the President to not have a meeting

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Speaker 5: with him as to not undercut some of the leverage

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Speaker 5: that they think that they have against Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Right now, Yeah, well, he took it to morning Joe

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Speaker 2: an open collared minority leader Schumer. Here's what he said

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Speaker 2: on MSNBC.

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Speaker 11: We know how bad it is, and all we're asking

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Speaker 11: something very simple, Joe, for the President to sit down

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Speaker 11: and talk with us. You know, he's not the king.

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Speaker 11: He can't just dictate what happened. He said, he doesn't

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Speaker 11: need Democrats. Well, then he doesn't know how to count

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Speaker 11: because there are sixty votes in this Senate that you

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Speaker 11: need to pass this, and he's got fifty three.

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Speaker 2: A little background remembering that Republicans in the House did

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Speaker 2: pass the clean cr it went to the Senate, it failed.

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Speaker 2: There was another Democratic version that failed too. Now senators

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Speaker 2: are going to be back with two days to go.

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Speaker 2: The trouble here is the House will not be back

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Speaker 2: until after the government would be shut down.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, that's a week from today.

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Speaker 2: We could be talking to Terry Haynes one week from

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Speaker 2: today as russ vote starts to decide what is essential

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Speaker 2: and what is not. And he's with us right now,

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Speaker 2: the founder of Pangaea policy. It takes an act of

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Speaker 2: Congress to get him on this broadcast because he's on

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Speaker 2: every other broadcast on Bloomberg. But we got our hooks

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Speaker 2: and Terry today. It's great to have you back, Terry Haynes,

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Speaker 2: and good to see you.

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Speaker 4: Are you.

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Speaker 2: In the camp that this is unavoidable at this point.

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Speaker 2: You've seen this movie a lot of times before. Could

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Speaker 2: somebody pull something out of the fire.

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Speaker 12: Joe, It's always a pleasure, and really, particularly in Mario

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Speaker 12: Good Afternoon, somebody might be able to pull something out

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Speaker 12: of the fire. But let me say, let me say

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Speaker 12: two things about where this is going. One is that

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Speaker 12: it's in both parties interests to have a performative shutdown.

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Speaker 12: I think probably short. You know, Schumer got a lot

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Speaker 12: of grief the last time out for not taking Trump

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Speaker 12: on more, and the base is demanding some sort of

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Speaker 12: demonstration against bad Orange man. So I think they probably

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Speaker 12: got one. You know, on Trump's side. Not only is

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Speaker 12: is it kind of Republicans want what they want, number one,

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Speaker 12: but number two, for markets, it's in Trump's and Republicans'

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Speaker 12: interest to remind everybody, uh, just whose fault the debt

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Speaker 12: and deficit are, you know, pin that particular tale on

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Speaker 12: the Democratic donkey and uh so you know they'll try

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Speaker 12: to do that. But you know, the Schumer's rhetoric, I

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Speaker 12: think masks just how modest their ask is. Uh they

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Speaker 12: ask is pretty modest, and it has to do with

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Speaker 12: you know, the premium levels under Obamacare and and putting

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Speaker 12: them in this particular bill. Republicans have indicated they might

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Speaker 12: be willing to compromise on that issue, but they don't

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Speaker 12: want it in a temporary spending bill. So now all

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Speaker 12: we're talking about really is, you know, who's going to

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Speaker 12: nod at who and say they won something. And you know,

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Speaker 12: Democrats are got kind of desperate to say.

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Speaker 3: They want anything.

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Speaker 12: You know, they pitched the uh pitch the Kimmel reinstatement

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Speaker 12: as a as a win for them, even though they

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Speaker 12: really didn't have anything to do with it. So you know,

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Speaker 12: any kind of nod they're they're gonna say to people, well,

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Speaker 12: you know what we uh, you know, we looked bad

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Speaker 12: Orange man in the eye and you know, got him

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Speaker 12: to do something on this. In reality, they're going to

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Speaker 12: fight about Republicans and Democrats are going to fight about

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Speaker 12: spending for months to come, and it is not at

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Speaker 12: all uncommon to have spending bills go on and on

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Speaker 12: until you know, January, February, even March. The final thing

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Speaker 12: I will say before I stopped this filibuster is that

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Speaker 12: the concerns about debt and deficit in the markets are real.

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Speaker 12: They'll get stoked a little bit, but markets have now

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Speaker 12: discovered tariffs or their friend, and tariff revenue specifically or

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Speaker 12: their friend, so you know, even that gets mitigated a

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Speaker 12: little bit. So I think we're in for a shutdown,

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Speaker 12: but not along.

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Speaker 10: Thanks so much for joining us, Sary, I really appreciate it.

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Speaker 10: Just a piggyback off of what you said, I mean,

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Speaker 10: just I mean, how much economic pain would there be

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Speaker 10: if there say a four or five days shut down,

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Speaker 10: maybe if it extends even to this game of chicken

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Speaker 10: extends for a couple of weeks. I mean, is there

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Speaker 10: a risk there for Republicans and the president that the

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Speaker 10: voters will be pretty angry about this at all?

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Speaker 3: From economic aspect.

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Speaker 12: I think, Mario, I think from economic aspect two things.

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Speaker 12: One is on the actual economics. What ends up happening

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Speaker 12: is you know, the it's well known the shutdowns are

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Speaker 12: economically inefficient, you know, just meaning it. You know, it

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Speaker 12: costs the government more to shut down in some cases

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Speaker 12: than it does to keep it open. So there's that

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Speaker 12: Beyond that, though, I think this looks largely to markets,

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Speaker 12: and I think to the broader public, uh, you know,

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Speaker 12: like you know, the usual kabuki theater that goes on

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Speaker 12: around spending this time of year. Both parties are play

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Speaker 12: into their their purest basis. So both sides will end

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Speaker 12: up thinking and get you know, those peers ba is,

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Speaker 12: We'll get bed the information that you know, they got

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Speaker 12: particular wins one way or the other, and life will

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Speaker 12: go on. In this case, it'll it'll totter on for

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Speaker 12: I think probably weeks and months to come. What I

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Speaker 12: would look at is the is the kind of the

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Speaker 12: year end traditional defense authorization and defense spending bills is

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Speaker 12: kind of a trigger for a broader deal, but I

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Speaker 12: don't think it has a final deal happens much before then.

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Speaker 2: Interesting, well, we could have a couple of different outcomes here,

441
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: it seems Republicans. The line that we've been getting on

442
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: this program, Terry, and you're very kind to watch and

443
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: listen sometimes, is that, Hey, number one, this is a

444
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: Biden budget. We're only asking you to continue what was

445
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: passed under the previous president. And also a policy matter

446
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: to be debated in December. Should have nothing to do

447
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 2: with a funding emergency that we're dealing with in September.

448
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 2: Do you have an ear on Republican's messaging here? Does

449
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 2: that matter to voters?

450
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 12: You know, you're absolutely right about what they've said on

451
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 12: the on the program, and those are the talking points,

452
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 12: And does that matter to voters?

453
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: I think not a lot.

454
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 12: Voters tend to look at this this kind of stuff

455
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 12: in primary colors more than anything else, and it is

456
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 12: you know, is the government spending more, of the government

457
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 12: spending less? Uh, you know, are my priorities being dealt

458
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 12: with UH and what ends up happening in you know,

459
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 12: shut down or no every single year, is that what

460
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 12: you end up with is a status quo on government spending.

461
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 12: It adjusts upwards, you know, by inflation or even less

462
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 12: than inflation, you know, one one and a half percent,

463
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 12: something like that, and you've got you know, this year

464
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 12: you'll have more than the usual upticks in defense spending,

465
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 12: but you're also going to have a situation where domestic

466
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 12: spending UH is you know, remains largely intact and largely

467
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 12: you know, the same number. So yeah, both sides will

468
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 12: fight to a draw, as they always do.

469
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 3: You know, It's.

470
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: Interesting, Mario, we talked so much about russ vote and

471
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: whether this is in his playbook. There is at least

472
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: a theory that the White House is hoping for this shutdown.

473
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 10: That was exactly the point I was looking to speak

474
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 10: with Terry about on that point, Joe, just the fact

475
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 10: that what makes this shutdown a bit different than the

476
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 10: ones we've seen before is this fight for empowerment that

477
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 10: we've seen taking place with Congress.

478
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 5: Doze earlier this year.

479
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 10: And we know that the calculation that Schumer made earlier

480
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 10: this year part of the reason that he didn't fight

481
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 10: through was because he was worried about federal workers.

482
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 3: Yes, he was ready worried about the.

483
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 10: President's ability to kind of impound funds if you will

484
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 10: pick and choose what's essential for the government.

485
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 3: When the threat could actually be greater.

486
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: Now do you buy into this theory, Terry?

487
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 3: In what sense?

488
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 12: In the theory that votes interested in testing impoundment.

489
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: That votes well, yes, but also has a playbook here

490
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: And if the government shuts down, the Trump administration is

491
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: now in control of what is essential and what is not,

492
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 2: and we'll use that power in a way that we've

493
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: not seen before.

494
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 12: Yeah. I think, yeah, I think both of those are true. Frankly,

495
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 12: they they have things that they want to roll out

496
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 12: and things that they want to test. And you know,

497
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 12: all I'll say is, you know, I think the administration

498
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 12: is absolutely wrong on the whole impoundment matter. The idea

499
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 12: that the president can you know, essentially line item things out.

500
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 12: I use that not an illegal, strict legal sense, but

501
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 12: kind of a general sense. The reason why is because

502
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 12: the president's power under the Constitution is not just to

503
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 12: negotiate with Congress about spending bills, but to ashually veto

504
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 12: the spending bills if he doesn't want them. I mean,

505
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 12: that's the president's power. President can say to Congress, look,

506
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 12: you know, I you know, I'm against the bill, and

507
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 12: presidents do this all the time. I'm against the spending

508
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 12: bill that you're putting in front of me because of

509
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 12: spending bills in front of me for these five or

510
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 12: ten reasons. And I'm going to veto it and send

511
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 12: it back and we're all going to negotiate and you know,

512
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 12: have a have a resolution or not. And uh, you know,

513
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 12: to come at this to have the president sign something.

514
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 12: I know this is not strictly the situation you asked

515
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 12: me about. But to have the president sign spending bills

516
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 12: of any kind and then pick and choose what it

517
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 12: is that he's allowed to enforce or not is I

518
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 12: think an untenable situation for them constitutionally.

519
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 10: And Terry, just looking ahead, it's a November next November.

520
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 10: It's a little bit over a year out of course.

521
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 10: But does this, I mean, does this factor into the

522
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 10: main's terms at all?

523
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: No?

524
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 12: And you know, as far as the as far as

525
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 12: the midterms go today, I think we don't know a

526
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 12: damn thing.

527
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 8: Uh.

528
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 12: Firstly, Uh, Secondly, on you know, yeah and majorities. I

529
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 12: always tell people majorities don't equal control.

530
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 9: Uh.

531
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 12: Those words to the control get tended to get slopped

532
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 12: around a lot. But if you've got a tiny majority

533
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 12: in the House or the Senate, Uh, they're majorities all right,

534
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 12: as you can today, but they're not control. As as

535
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 12: Leader Schumer points out, you know, Republicans can't just do

536
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 12: anything they want the Senate with fifty three seats, So

537
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 12: you know, you've got a situation here where even their

538
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 12: tiny majorities flip over as they might. That doesn't equal control. Secondly,

539
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 12: and lastly, the you know, this idea that Democrats have

540
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 12: it all over Republicans these days is not true on

541
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 12: the major issue, whether you look at the economy, immigration,

542
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 12: or crime.

543
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Terry, it's great to have you back.

544
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: We'll go back to Congress to see if Terry will

545
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 2: return from Pangaea policy. Terry Haynes only here on Bloomberg.

546
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power.

547
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

548
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

549
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

550
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

551
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: You can also listen on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

552
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

553
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: We keep our eyes not only on the House of Representatives,

554
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: but the state of Arizona.

555
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 3: This is something that may not have.

556
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 2: Been on your radar, but it's going to bring the

557
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 2: whole Jeffrey Epstein's story back to the foe here. And yes,

558
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 2: everyone in Washington does know this, even if they're not

559
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: talking about it. Adelita Grihalva, the daughter of the longtime

560
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: Arizona congressman who died of cancer earlier this year. In March,

561
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 2: Raoul Grihalva won the race to succeed her dad last night.

562
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 2: This was a special election, one of two that we

563
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 2: were following right. The other was in Virginia a couple

564
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: of weeks ago that was a slam dunk for the

565
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 2: Democrat Jerry Connolly's old seat. This apparently was a slam

566
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 2: dunk for the Democrat as well.

567
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 3: The daughter.

568
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: Of the now late incumbent when she is sworn in.

569
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: You thought Republicans had a narrow margin the Republican majority

570
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: in the House, we'll go to two nineteen two fourteen

571
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 2: two remaining vacancies. Now that's one problem for Mike Johnson.

572
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: Here's the other. The future congresswoman from Arizona has pledged

573
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: to sign the discharge petition to release the Epstein files.

574
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: And guess what, only one more vote is needed. So

575
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: this is apparently about to happen, remembering you need two

576
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: eighteen on there. Grahalva made it very clear that she

577
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 2: will join the effort as soon as she is sworn in,

578
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 2: which is expected to happen well next week when everybody

579
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 2: comes back to town. It's where we start with our

580
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: political panel. Jeanie Shanzi, O Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic

581
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: analyst is with us. She's Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard

582
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Republican strategy is Mora Gillespie with

583
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: Bluestack strategies and a veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office.

584
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: Great to have you both here, Genie. Democrats.

585
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: As it turns, we had been asking about this week's ago,

586
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: will in fact be the party to put the discharge

587
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: petition on the floor?

588
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 3: Will it go any further?

589
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 8: It may not go to the.

590
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 9: Senate, but it's certainly come into the floor of the House.

591
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 9: And it's not just Democrats. We have Tom Massey, we

592
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 9: have the three women who are Republicans who have signed

593
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 9: on and said, despite pressure from the White House, their

594
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 9: signatures will remain. And then of course you have Virginia Fox,

595
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 9: the chair of the Rules Committee, who says she's not

596
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 9: going to try to stop it.

597
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 8: So this thing is going to barrel ahead to the floor.

598
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 9: I don't think it's going to go far in the Senate,

599
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 9: but they are going to force Republicans to take a

600
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 9: stand on releasing these documents. So, Joe, you thought Epstein

601
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 9: was something of the past. He keeps rearing up again.

602
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like that hand that comes out of the

603
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: water at the end of the horror movie. Mora, what's

604
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: the conversation happening right now inside the Speaker's office as

605
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson loses control of this matter.

606
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 13: It's a matter of how do we deal with President

607
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 13: Trump and his reaction to this. Really, because it's happening,

608
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 13: As you mentioned, this is going to force Republicans to

609
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 13: be on record. They can tout to their constituents that

610
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 13: they stand for transparency and they want answers. They want

611
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 13: to do it through proper order, and that's the messaging

612
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 13: that they'll probably come up with. But I think that

613
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 13: what we're going to see is a real pressure campaign

614
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 13: by the White House, and then it'll be up to

615
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 13: Speaker Johnson how he communicates this with the President, reminding

616
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 13: him that this has put his members in a position

617
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 13: where they have to be on record for it. But

618
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 13: I agree that it won't go to the Senate. It'll

619
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 13: just be a messaging tool.

620
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: Well, okay, a messaging tool is really what it has

621
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: been so far, Genie, which is a problem for President Trump.

622
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 2: Does it also threatened to sideline any potential deal around

623
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 2: government funding because we are a week away now, this

624
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 2: would be the first day of a shutdown next week

625
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 2: if it happens.

626
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, I don't see the Epstein issue as having that

627
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 9: much of an impact on the shutdown. I think we

628
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 9: are unfortunately barreling towards a shutdown regardless of what happens.

629
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 9: I don't even think that Donald Trump can't canceling tomorrow's

630
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 9: meeting with the Democratic leadership is having that much impact,

631
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 9: you know.

632
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 8: Unfortunately.

633
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 9: I think Democrats have their back against the wall. I

634
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 9: don't think they should do what they are doing as

635
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 9: you know, Joe. But they're doing it and I think

636
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 9: they don't have a choice because if they decided to capitulate,

637
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 9: their base would just rebel. And so I think we

638
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 9: are going to barrel towards a shutdown, and I think

639
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 9: that is most unfortunate because getting out of it is

640
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 9: going to be terribly difficult.

641
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 2: Well, you know, Genie, you referred to Mike Johnson's preference.

642
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: They wanted the Epstein matter to come through the Oversight

643
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 2: Committee and not have to deal with what they call

644
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: a partisan discharge petition.

645
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 3: You remember Mike Lawler.

646
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: Wanted to have a big shouting match about this when

647
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: I was asking about his potential vote on the discharge

648
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: and he was yelling so much. We really didn't get

649
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 2: a lot in that conversation, but it really underscored how

650
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 2: sensitive this is for those who are allied with Mike

651
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: Johnson to not see it go this way, not with

652
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 2: Tom Massey and the rest. They want to have some

653
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: control over this in the Oversight Committee. Well, that parallel

654
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: effort continue if the discharge petition hits the floor.

655
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 8: You know, I think.

656
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 9: Mike Johnson has been basically trying to make the case

657
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 9: this is redundant.

658
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 8: We don't need it.

659
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 9: We're already addressing this through proper channels, as Morris said,

660
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 9: I think he'll continue to make that case. But it is,

661
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 9: to your point, a very sensitive issue for Republicans, and

662
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 9: they are going to feel the heat from the White House.

663
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 9: I mean, there have been talk of threats from the

664
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 9: White House already for the last several weeks, and so

665
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 9: I think this is.

666
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 8: Just going to continue to be a mess.

667
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 9: Quite frankly, I don't see why the President doesn't just

668
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 9: call for everything to be released, because this is worse

669
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 9: for him, this back and forth on it.

670
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 2: Well, of course he did on the campaign trail, which

671
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 2: is why we keep talking about this.

672
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 3: Genie.

673
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 2: It's not something we'd be pursuing I think otherwise. But

674
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,479
Speaker 2: I want to get into the shutdown stuff with you here, Mara.

675
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: We heard from Chuck Schumer. He showed up on TV

676
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 2: this morning. I realize everybody's on recess right now, but

677
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 2: no tie for the Democratic leader. As he sat down

678
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 2: on MSNBC and made clear that we have a problem.

679
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 3: Let's listen, we.

680
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 11: Know how bad it is, and well we're asking something

681
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 11: very simple, Joe, for the President to sit down and

682
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 11: talk with us. You know, he's not the king. He

683
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 11: can't just dictate what happened. He said he doesn't need Democrats. Well,

684
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 11: then he doesn't know how to count because there are

685
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 11: sixty votes in the Senate that you need to pass this,

686
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 11: and he's got fifty three.

687
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,760
Speaker 2: And of course he's referring to the fact that President

688
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: Trump yesterday decided that he would not be meeting with

689
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: the Democratic leadership. Schumer and Hakim Jeffreys have both been

690
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 2: pressing for this meeting, and President Trump is not going

691
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 2: to be playing along. Many folks see that as kind

692
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 2: of the final straw mora that there's just no way

693
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 2: we're going to get around this. Even if it's a

694
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 2: brief shutdown, we are shutting down. And as somebody who's

695
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: been in the Speaker's office, I wonder if you agree.

696
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 13: I don't think that a shutdown it was ever a

697
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 13: good decision. I've been through a couple, but I think

698
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 13: what happened in March, with Schumer not falling through on

699
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 13: it and Jeffrey's wanting to they have to be lockstep.

700
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 13: And even though I think the biggest problem is that

701
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 13: they don't know how to get out of this, they're

702
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 13: heading towards it. One of the problems too, and Genie

703
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 13: mentioned some of their backs are against the wall.

704
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 8: Well, that's true. Republicans have control.

705
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 13: They have the messaging control as well, because there is

706
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 13: no way out for Democrats necessarily. They came to the

707
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 13: table with these three major visions that they wanted to

708
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 13: talk to the President about tomorrow, which in reality they

709
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 13: probably should have just gone in with one or two.

710
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 13: I don't think they have. These are three pretty lofty ones.

711
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 13: The Obamacare subsidies, rolling back something for the one big

712
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 13: beautiful bill, and then you know, talking about recisions issues.

713
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 13: I think if they'd focus on one, maybe they'd have

714
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 13: better success. But doing so, you've got seven days until

715
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 13: shutdown is happening. That's the reality they're playing in right now.

716
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 13: And Republicans will say that this is you know, they

717
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 13: gave a bill, they put a bill forward, the House

718
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 13: is already in recess and Johnson's not bringing them back,

719
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 13: and so it really does come down to what student

720
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 13: can get accomplished here.

721
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 2: Hakim Jeffries on Twitter on x Genie Trump always chickens out,

722
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: the Democratic leader goes for the taco. Donald Trump just

723
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,879
Speaker 2: canceled a high stakes meeting in the Oval, he says,

724
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: the extremists want to shut down the government because they

725
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: are unwilling to address the Republican healthcare crisis that is

726
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 2: devastating America. We've talked about the Fabrizio polling numbers over

727
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 2: the expiration, the potential expiration of these Obamacare subsidies that

728
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: would increase premiums for a lot of people. Genie, that

729
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 2: could mean the midterms for Republicans. Is Hakim Jeffries on

730
00:37:59,920 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: the right talking points.

731
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 9: I think he's on the right talking point with regard

732
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 9: to the cancelation of the meeting. You know, a big

733
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 9: problem for Democrats is and which is why I believe

734
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 9: they should have taken the clean cr and negotiated during

735
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 9: the approached process on this, because they are right, the

736
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 9: subsidies are going to the expiration is going to hit

737
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 9: very hard. But the problem for Democrats is if they

738
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 9: are seen as shutting down the government and then these

739
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 9: notices on the subsidy increases go out in October and

740
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 9: they will be devastating. I think it's going to be

741
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 9: very very hard to message this over Donald Trump.

742
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 8: And so that's the problem.

743
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 9: And I also think they should look at the reality

744
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 9: that Donald Trump, in my estimation, not Republicans, but Donald Trump.

745
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 8: He wants a shutdown of this government.

746
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 9: That's why he is not meeting, That's why they are

747
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,280
Speaker 9: moving in the way they are. I think he sees

748
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 9: that as beneficial to him and of course to RUSS Vote,

749
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 9: And so I think this is a problem for Democrats.

750
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 9: But again I am in the total minority. I do

751
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 9: also think that Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have no choice.

752
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 9: The base would rebel, the rank and forward rebel that

753
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 9: they turned it around again like Schumer did last time.

754
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,959
Speaker 9: So they are going to move right towards it. They

755
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 9: have no choice at this point.

756
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 2: You know you're hearing from a Washington insider when they

757
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: refer to appropriations as approbes, which is partly why I

758
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 2: love you both. Mara, We've only got a minute left here.

759
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 2: Does President Trump march up to Capitol Hill or is

760
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: the story true that RUSS Vote has a plan and

761
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 2: they can't wait for it to close.

762
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 13: Well, I think, if you remember, the president will have

763
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 13: extra powers about the really the budget and House spending

764
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 13: is you know how we do spend in this country,

765
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 13: And so yes, he does want to shut down. I

766
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 13: think in a little bit of ways, because again shows

767
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 13: the powers he has. I think that's probably what fun

768
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 13: and Johnson reminded him that the shutdown may be beneficial

769
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 13: for him because he has discretionary spending at his disposal.

770
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 13: He gets to do some things that maybe he wouldn't

771
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 13: get the otherwise, and any legal challenges called up in

772
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 13: a cor because he has presidential immunity.

773
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: Remember this conversation a week from today our great panel,

774
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: Mora Gillespie, Bluestack Strategies, and of course Bloomberg Politics contributor

775
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano.

776
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 3: Thank you both.

777
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

778
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

779
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

780
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

781
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com