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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined

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Speaker 1: today by a very special guest. He is Steve Gardner

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Speaker 1: from the USA Today. Steve, it's great to talk with you.

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Speaker 1: I know we've see each other typically every year in Arizona.

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Speaker 1: We actually played around of golf together a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago at the Bubba and the Blue Invitational. It's

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Speaker 1: always great getting to talk with you. Man.

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Speaker 2: How you doing today?

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Speaker 3: Doing great, Joe? How's your golf game these days?

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Speaker 2: It's a little tough being in Toronto. It's just so cold.

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Speaker 1: I've gone to a couple of golf simulators over the

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Speaker 1: winter just to actually get to take a couple of swings.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I try to do the conversion between

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Speaker 1: celsius and fahrenheit in my head. It's like single digits

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Speaker 1: maybe maybe in the teams fahrenheit over the last week.

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Speaker 1: So not much golfing recently, but I hope to hit

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Speaker 1: the links very soon. Have you you been getting out

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Speaker 1: there yet?

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Speaker 4: Not too much, but the weather is sufficiently warming up

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Speaker 4: here in the nation's capital areas, so hopefully I'll be

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Speaker 4: out there soon get this fantasy baseball draft stuff, get

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Speaker 4: the baseball season off to a good start, and I

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Speaker 4: can breathe a little bit easier.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you probably.

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Speaker 2: Could too, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: You know, we do so much work in the preseason,

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Speaker 1: all the live streams and the drafts and updating rankings,

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Speaker 1: and then once the season starts, ironically, things kind of

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Speaker 1: calm down a little bit. But I tend to hit

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Speaker 1: the links on Saturdays. This Sunday is always setting the

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Speaker 1: lineup for the next week and doing fab So hopefully

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Speaker 1: we'll get out there a few times, and I hope

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Speaker 1: to see you again at the next Bubble in the

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Speaker 1: Bluem Invitational in November. I think it'll be the fifth time.

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Speaker 1: But we're not here to talk golf. We're here to

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Speaker 1: talk baseball. We're gonna be talking about some spring training risers.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about some projections too that we might

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Speaker 1: disagree on. We're gonna start there, but first we're gonna

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Speaker 1: give something away real quick, and that is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Championship Belt from our friends over at Trophy Smack.

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Speaker 1: It is the number one destination for epic fantasy sports hardware,

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Speaker 1: Don't just win your championship where it will be announcing

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Speaker 1: the winner right here on the channel, So make sure

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Speaker 1: to turn on those notifications so you know if you

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Speaker 1: are the winner, all you have to do is just

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Speaker 1: drop a comment down below and that's it. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the channel, drop a comment, and you could be the

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Speaker 1: winner of the Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt.

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Speaker 2: Steve, let's talk.

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Speaker 1: About a couple of guys that you think projections are

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Speaker 1: potentially too high on. And I think Matt McClain is

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Speaker 1: kind of an intersection of both of our topics because

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Speaker 1: his spring training has been ridiculous. Six home runs, he's

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Speaker 1: heading over five hundred. But a lot of the time,

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Speaker 1: hot spring trainings don't carry over into the regular season.

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Speaker 1: It seems like you are not expecting that with Matt

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Speaker 1: McClain this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I know.

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Speaker 4: It's one of those small sample size things. We see

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Speaker 4: this every year in spring training, even at the start

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Speaker 4: of the regular season. Guys get off to hot starts

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Speaker 4: that don't necessarily deserve it. The numbers don't necessarily warrant it,

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Speaker 4: but that's all the results that we have to look at.

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Speaker 4: So we're very mesmerized by those. I look at at

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Speaker 4: his you know, debut in twenty twenty three, and I

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Speaker 4: see that wonderful slash line. You know, it's it's been

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Speaker 4: a while since he did miss all of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 4: but you look at that. It was two ninety three

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Speaker 4: fifty seven, five oh seven and eighty nine games, and

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Speaker 4: then all of a sudden, you know, people like this

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Speaker 4: guy has a tremendous future sort of derailed with that

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Speaker 4: injury that cost him all of the next year. But

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Speaker 4: then last year, I think more of who he is.

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Speaker 4: One hundred and forty seven game sample so bigger, and

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Speaker 4: he hit two twenty with a three forty three slugging percentage,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's probably his closer to his identity.

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Speaker 4: And it's just one of those things where the ADP

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Speaker 4: now has just blown up because of his great spring,

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Speaker 4: and I still worry about his ability to make contact.

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Speaker 4: And although it sounds like he's going to be in

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Speaker 4: a pretty good spot in that Red's lineup, I still

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Speaker 4: worry about him just being able to show us glimpses

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Speaker 4: of what he did back in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: I find it hard to disagree with anything you said there.

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Speaker 1: I think people are looking to react and potentially overreact

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Speaker 1: to anything right now, whether it's a couple innings in

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Speaker 1: the WBC. I did a draft last night and Daniel

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Speaker 1: Pelensia went sixty fifth overall or something. People are going

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Speaker 1: to over People are gonna overreact. Maybe that's not a

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Speaker 1: bad pick, but Polencia hasn't been going there. They're reacting

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Speaker 1: because of his performance in the WBC. And with Matt McClain,

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Speaker 1: we did a show about a month ago on the

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Speaker 1: Channel ADP Battles and we were looking at Matt McClain

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Speaker 1: versus Bryson Stott, and they were going in the same place.

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Speaker 1: Now Matt McClain is fifty picks ahead of Bryson Stott,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know if that's justified, just based on

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Speaker 1: fifteen games, and they've been fifteen great games for McLain.

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Speaker 1: But another thing is when guys go this hot in spring,

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Speaker 1: how often does it carry over? Sometimes it does, but

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Speaker 1: expecting that to happen with the increased price, I think

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Speaker 1: I agree that projections are a little bit too high

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Speaker 1: on Matt McClain this year and maybe not expecting a

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Speaker 1: full disappointment, but as the seventh second baseman, it feels

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Speaker 1: a little bit too rich for me. The other name

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Speaker 1: that you are eating here is Freddy Peralta, and I

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Speaker 1: know Joe Pizapia is going to want to have some

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Speaker 1: strong words with you because he is a huge Freddy

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Speaker 1: Perolta fan. I'm sure it has nothing to do with

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Speaker 1: the fact that he's in New York met now, But

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Speaker 1: why are you a little bit more pessimistic on Freddy

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Speaker 1: Perolta than maybe the rest of the room is.

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Speaker 4: Well, it feels to me, like you know, obviously when

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Speaker 4: you come to New York, they are much more higher

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Speaker 4: expectations placed upon you. Freddy Peralta is going to have

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Speaker 4: to be the number one guy where in Milwaukee. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you could probably say that that Brandon Woodruff was the

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Speaker 4: number one started there and Freddy Peralta could just kind

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Speaker 4: of be the be the number two guy, the supporting guy.

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Speaker 4: He's going to have to carry the load there in

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Speaker 4: New York. So that's one the expectations mid three eras

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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty three and twenty four, But last year

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Speaker 4: was down to two seven to zero and one point

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Speaker 4: seventy seven was his era in Milwaukee. So I don't

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Speaker 4: know how much stock you want to put on that,

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Speaker 4: whether it was you know, being at home, being comfortable there, whatever,

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Speaker 4: that that's still was extremely low and you're gonna have

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Speaker 4: to take that out. And the other thing too, just

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Speaker 4: taking a look at some of the numbers his his

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Speaker 4: fielding independent pitching last year with that two seventy era,

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Speaker 4: the FIP was three six four. That was the third

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Speaker 4: highest difference among starting pitchers in a negative way. So

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Speaker 4: I worry about regression from that standpoint, and I also

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Speaker 4: worry a little bit about you know, the home run

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Speaker 4: rate last year was historically low for him, and that

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Speaker 4: is another thing too. You know, home run to fly

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Speaker 4: ball rate was ten point four percent, which in the

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Speaker 4: previous couple of years of Milwaukee was thirteen point one

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Speaker 4: and sixteen. So you see the progression there. I find

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Speaker 4: it hard to believe that he has found the secret

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Speaker 4: to pitching. That this just seemed to me to be

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Speaker 4: like kind of a statistical anomaly and to expect that

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Speaker 4: sort of thing to continue, which it seems like drafters

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Speaker 4: are considering his adp that would concern me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the NFBC is doing their Premier contest now the

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Speaker 1: main event, and Freddy perult is a top fifty pick

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Speaker 1: forty seven. Is his ADP a little bit too rich

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Speaker 1: for me? If I was getting him as a second

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Speaker 1: starting pitcher maybe in the seventies or eighties, I'd be

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Speaker 1: willing to do it. But I agree that that two

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Speaker 1: seventy ERA last year feels like a little bit of

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Speaker 1: an outlier when you look at the previous three years

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Speaker 1: at three five eight, three eight, six, three six eight,

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Speaker 1: and all the supporting metrics have generally been to mid threes,

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Speaker 1: even potentially low four ERA. If you're looking at the

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Speaker 1: expected era as the Phipps, the x FIPS, Sierra, whichever

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Speaker 1: number you look at, Freddy Perolta probably should have been

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Speaker 1: about a run higher last year. He had the really

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Speaker 1: low Babbitt at two forty three, and he stranded eighty

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Speaker 1: five eighty six percent of his base runners, which was

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Speaker 1: much higher than he had in his career and about

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Speaker 1: ten percent higher than projection see him this coming season.

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Speaker 1: So I like Freddy Perulta if I can get him

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Speaker 1: as a two, But as my ace, I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of risk there, and I'm not sure I'm

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Speaker 1: willing to take that chance on him in twenty Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I will say one thing we can tell Joe about

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Speaker 4: this Mets team is I like the defense up the middle,

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Speaker 4: you know, and Milwaukee it was great with Joey Ortiz

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Speaker 4: and Bryce Terrang, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Simeon's still pretty good

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Speaker 4: up the middle. Worry about the corners a little bit

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Speaker 4: because you're gonna have Bobachett playing a new position. You're

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Speaker 4: gonna have or Hey Polanco playing a new position on

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Speaker 4: the corners. That kind of concerns me as well. So

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Speaker 4: you know, some of those bass hits that get through

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Speaker 4: maybe because of their inexperience in playing those positions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, long time viewers of this channel and

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Speaker 1: they can see the Blue Jays hat. They know I'm

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Speaker 1: a Jays fan. I've watched a lot of Bobashet over

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Speaker 1: the years. I can say with the high degree of

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Speaker 1: certainty he is not a third baseman going forward, or

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Speaker 1: at least he shouldn't be. He struggled quite a bit

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Speaker 1: at short and it wasn't so much the range. It's

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Speaker 1: more the arm that I worry about. The range is

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Speaker 1: also a bit of a problem, but it's more the

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Speaker 1: arm I think with the sheet, I could see him

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Speaker 1: moving off a third. I don't know that he's just

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Speaker 1: a third baseman forever. Going forward, they'll probably do some

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Speaker 1: mixing and matching. But that's a story for another day.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about a couple of gu that I am

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Speaker 1: a little bit concerned about based on their projections. In

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Speaker 1: the first one, it's a spicy name, it's Fernando Tattis.

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Speaker 1: Over the last three years, it's been twenty five, twenty

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Speaker 1: one and twenty five homers, seventy eight forty nine and

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Speaker 1: seventy one RBI. The batting averages have been roughly about

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Speaker 1: two sixty two seventy. He hasn't been able to reach

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Speaker 1: those heights that we saw in the first couple of

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Speaker 1: seasons and his debut in eighty four games it was

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Speaker 1: twenty two homer, sixteen steals, he hit three seventeen. He

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Speaker 1: has the forty two home run season, and then he

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Speaker 1: misses all of twenty twenty two, and since he's returned,

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Speaker 1: I don't know that he has been quite the same player,

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Speaker 1: but projections across the board have him exceeding that home

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Speaker 1: run total. Of twenty five, which is the high over

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Speaker 1: the last three years. They have him going over one

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Speaker 1: hundred runs going into the eighties, if not ninety rbi range,

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Speaker 1: and they have him hitting usually in the two seventies

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Speaker 1: and Steve, I just worry a little bit that maybe,

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Speaker 1: whether it's the PDS, whether it's the multiple shoulder surgeries

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Speaker 1: the Tattis had, that he's not quite the same player

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Speaker 1: that he once was. And I'm not saying that he's

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Speaker 1: going to be bad, but I just don't know if

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Speaker 1: he's a first round player. Necessarily I could have taken

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Speaker 1: him last night on the one two turn, I passed

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Speaker 1: and took Corbyn Carroll. What are your thoughts on Fernando

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Speaker 1: Tattoos this year? You worried, like I am a little

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Speaker 1: bit about him.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you raised some great points, and I worry a

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Speaker 4: little bit about the injuries and the supporting cast too.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Padres have had a very good supporting

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Speaker 4: cast around him, you know, Juan Soto's and guys that

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Speaker 4: have been there. I don't know that this year's Padres

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Speaker 4: lineup is is as frightening, and for that reason, the

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Speaker 4: counting numbers may continue to be lower than we expect

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Speaker 4: I think he's he's a risky pick. Obviously, the talent

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Speaker 4: is is tremendous, but if you're taking him around that turn,

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Speaker 4: you know, or thinking about taking him in the first round,

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Speaker 4: you may want to at least reconsider it a little

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Speaker 4: bit and see what your options are, like like with

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Speaker 4: Corbyn Carroll.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Carol, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker. Those are kind of

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Speaker 1: the guys that I would be preferring over Tattoos. If

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Speaker 1: I'm in the middle of the second round and he's

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Speaker 1: still there, I probably take Tattoos. But he's been a

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Speaker 1: first round pick for most of the draft season, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's a terrible pick, but I think

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Speaker 1: there is still some downside with Tattoos that people are

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Speaker 1: maybe just still hoping, you know, he can be that

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Speaker 1: forty to thirty guy that we were expecting. And maybe

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Speaker 1: he can, but I kind of need to see him

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Speaker 1: prove it before I'm willing to take him in the

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Speaker 1: first round. The other guy that I'm a bit concerned

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Speaker 1: about is Chase Burns, and there was an article that

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Speaker 1: came out last week that suggested Burns might not start

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Speaker 1: the year in the rotation. It looks like he will,

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Speaker 1: but it will probably be a six man. And we've

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Speaker 1: also talked about a guy who didn't end the year

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Speaker 1: terribly healthy. It was short starts after there was a

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Speaker 1: I believe it was a flexer strain or something in

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Speaker 1: his elbow that they were worried about at the end

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Speaker 1: of the season. And to this point in spring it

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Speaker 1: hasn't been great. It's twelve innings, it's a five twenty

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Speaker 1: five era. He's walking almost fourteen percent of batters. I

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Speaker 1: think that people are expecting a little bit too much

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Speaker 1: from Chase Burns Steve. He is not quite a top

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Speaker 1: one hundred pick anymore, but in that main event one

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Speaker 1: to oh three, and the Project seem to think we're

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Speaker 1: getting one hundred and thirty hundred and forty good innings

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Speaker 1: out of him. I worry from a performance standpoint. I

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Speaker 1: worry about the ballpark, and I also worry if he's healthy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I did move him down in my rankings

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Speaker 4: just recently because of that. You get a little concerned

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Speaker 4: when he doesn't really pitch a lot. I mean, you

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Speaker 4: like to see pitchers ramp up their innings as spring

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Speaker 4: training progresses, and the Reds have kind of backed him

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Speaker 4: off a little bit, so it does make you wonder,

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Speaker 4: you know, how much they will push him during the

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Speaker 4: regular season, and if they're going to have a six

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Speaker 4: man rotation or divide those starts up and not have

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Speaker 4: him pitch more regularly than that is a concern too.

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Speaker 4: But the one thing, he just has such a high

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Speaker 4: ceiling that if he does, you know, put whatever injury

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Speaker 4: concerns or anything behind him. You do have a pitcher

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Speaker 4: who could vault himself up into the elite of starting

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Speaker 4: pitchers with very little things needing to go right. Beyond

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Speaker 4: just a talent, the.

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Speaker 2: Skill set is immense.

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Speaker 1: He's just a guy that there are enough worries that

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Speaker 1: I think the price is high enough to keep me away.

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Speaker 1: If I was going to take a shot in this range,

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Speaker 1: I would probably rather go for Jacob Mizerowski. They have

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Speaker 1: a similar adp. Miserowski had more innings in the majors

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Speaker 1: last year. There's not a health concern to the same

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Speaker 1: degree that there is with Burns, and they've been going

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Speaker 1: neck and neck. I'd prefer to take Miserowski. They're both risky,

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Speaker 1: but I agree if things go right, you could be

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Speaker 1: looking at number one and number two on a bunch

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Speaker 1: of cy young ballots over the next decade. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if twenty twenty six is the year where I

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Speaker 1: necessarily want to be taking that chance. Guys, before we

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Speaker 1: keep it going, I want to remind you about fan Tracks.

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Speaker 1: Fan Tracks is the home of fantasy sports for year

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Speaker 1: round engagement, offseason trades, real time updates, seamless player transactions,

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Speaker 1: and everything else that'll keep the excitement alive three hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty five days a year. You can use our

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00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,439
Speaker 1: extensive list, you can use two hundred manager plus leagues.

300
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Speaker 1: There are so many things you can can do over

301
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Speaker 1: at fan tracks, and it is the best place to

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Speaker 1: be playing fantasy sports in twenty twenty six. If you

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Speaker 1: haven't signed up already, if you're looking for a place

304
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,720
Speaker 1: to play your league, sign up at fantracks dot com

305
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:14,319
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros. That is fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about players at the projections might be a

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Speaker 1: little bit too low on Steve. You got Carter Jensen

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Speaker 1: as the first one. I worry a little bit about

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Speaker 1: the whole Salvey Carter Jensen backstop, first base DH kind

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Speaker 1: of grouping there. How do you expect the playing time

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Speaker 1: to work out in Kansas City here behind the plate.

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Speaker 4: Well, Joe, the draft that you and I were in

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Speaker 4: the FSGA Champions Draft, Carter Jensen was the guy that

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Speaker 4: I may have jumped ADP a little bit for in

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Speaker 4: getting him, just because I really love the skill set

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Speaker 4: and you mentioned the positions and the lineups and all

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Speaker 4: that sort of stuff. I think the Royals' best lineup

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Speaker 4: has both Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen in it, and

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Speaker 4: so in that regard guard, you just give Salvey some

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Speaker 4: time to place first base a little bit, to DH

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Speaker 4: a little bit, and give Jensen that opportunity to take

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Speaker 4: some days off maybe d H himself. I think that's

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Speaker 4: that's huge. I love the fact that the fences are

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Speaker 4: coming in in Kansas City by eight to ten feet

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Speaker 4: pretty much all the way around except for dead center.

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Speaker 4: That's gonna help power numbers for that entire offense. You're

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Speaker 4: gonna see more, uh more guys on base. I feel like,

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Speaker 4: even though you know it maybe cuts down some of

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Speaker 4: those doubles and triples to the gap, but for fantasy purposes,

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Speaker 4: Jensen just is just a fantastically high ceiling kind of guy.

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Speaker 4: For me, I look at his minor league numbers. Last year,

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Speaker 4: for instance, over the entire minor leagues, had a three

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Speaker 4: ninety three weighted on base average, gets called up to

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Speaker 4: the majors, plays twenty games as will, but goes even

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Speaker 4: higher to four to oh three there in Kansas City.

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Speaker 4: So you have a guy that is, you know, making

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Speaker 4: his way through the minor league, having success and then

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Speaker 4: doing even better in the majors, which you know is

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Speaker 4: kind of uncanny and certainly uncommon. And I think that's

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Speaker 4: the kind of guy that we, you know, we can't

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Speaker 4: expect him to be hitting the ground, running and being

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Speaker 4: that good the entire season, but I think it just

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Speaker 4: shows that he's not phased by being in the major leagues,

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Speaker 4: and that's a great sign.

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Speaker 1: I completely agree. I think the skill set is I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't say unimpeachable, but for a twenty two year old catcher,

347
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Speaker 1: it's pretty darn close. He's carried over into spring training

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Speaker 1: as well. Eleven games he has three homers. The WRC

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Speaker 1: plus is at one o four, which I think there's

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Speaker 1: room for that to go up as well. He's hitting

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Speaker 1: the ball hard twelve percent barrel rate in spring after

352
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Speaker 1: a twenty one percent barrel rate in the majors last year.

353
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Speaker 1: Small sample size, but the talent is immense. I think

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Speaker 1: I completely agree that he will play, whether he's at catcher,

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Speaker 1: whether he's dhing, whether they want to try him at

356
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Speaker 1: first here or there. Probably not too many times at first,

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Speaker 1: but we'll see how they end up fitting together the

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Speaker 1: jigsaw puzzle. But I do expect Carter Gensen to be

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Speaker 1: in the lineup quite a bit. The plate discipline for

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Speaker 1: a guy at his age, especially as a catcher, like

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Speaker 1: he doesn't chase, He makes good contact, not a ton

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Speaker 1: of strikeouts, and if you're looking at the swinging strike rate,

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Speaker 1: it's really good. So I'm on board with Carter Jensen

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Speaker 1: this year. And I'm also on board but oh sorry, Steve.

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Speaker 3: I was gonna say.

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Speaker 4: He even saw some basses in the miners, so there's

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Speaker 4: a little bit more upside potential there as well.

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Speaker 3: From a fantasy perspective.

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Speaker 1: Seventeen steals in twenty twenty four, and he had ten

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Speaker 1: of them last year in the miners as well. And

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Speaker 1: when we're talking catchers, you don't need twenty five steals

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Speaker 1: from a catcher make them valuable. If a catcher's giving

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Speaker 1: you five or seven steals. That could be a huge,

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Speaker 1: huge difference maker. I'm also a big fan of the

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Speaker 1: next player you got on the sheet here, and that

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Speaker 1: is Ryan Pepio.

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Speaker 2: I love him.

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Speaker 1: Over the years, He's always been very, very consistent, and

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Speaker 1: now he gets to go back to Tropicana Field where

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Speaker 1: it's not such a ballpark concern like we had last year.

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Speaker 1: The splits were not so drastic for him last year,

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Speaker 1: but just going back to a pitcher's park, I think

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Speaker 1: Ryan Pepio is a really really undervalue target this year.

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Speaker 3: I'm right there.

385
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Speaker 4: And the fact that you know, speaking of pitching, he's

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Speaker 4: been kind of labeled as a two pitch pitcher throughout

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Speaker 4: his career so far, but he's worked on that change up.

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Speaker 4: The change up improved last year in terms of run

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Speaker 4: values and stat cast was a minus four pitch in

390
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Speaker 4: twenty twenty four. It was a plus four pitch in

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00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 4: terms of run value in twenty five. He held opponents

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Speaker 4: to a two hundred average on that change up, so

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Speaker 4: that's good. What I think the key for Pepio is

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Speaker 4: is if he can develop the slider or I mean

395
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Speaker 4: the cutter is the key for him. He threw a

396
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Speaker 4: lot the slider maybe about close to twenty percent of

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Speaker 4: the time that was a negative run value pitch. If

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Speaker 4: he can develop the slider, take that back. If he

399
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:52,880
Speaker 4: can develop the cutter, that was when his most improved

400
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 4: pitched or one of his most improved pitches last year,

401
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 4: that I think is the key. That could be the

402
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Speaker 4: third pitch, and you take that the ability to keep

403
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Speaker 4: batters honest with with a pitch with some movement and

404
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 4: then coming back again to the trop that's huge for him.

405
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Speaker 4: So I do like Ryan Pepio. I think he's being

406
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Speaker 4: undervalue this year in drafts.

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Speaker 1: I have a bunch of shares, and I know that

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Speaker 1: we've had hull Spor on the show and Nick Pollock

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Speaker 1: on the show, and everybody is into is into Ryan

410
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Speaker 1: Pepio this year. Everybody's into Nick Pollock this year too.

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Speaker 1: But everybody's into Ryan Pepio. And yet his price is

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Speaker 1: not really going up as much as I would have

413
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Speaker 1: expected it to. You can still get him in the

414
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Speaker 1: mid one hundreds of a lot of drafts NFBC. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be maybe a little bit higher some sharper players

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Speaker 1: over there at one thirteen. And if you're playing in

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Speaker 1: the consumer you know ESPN Zyahoo CBS is I think

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Speaker 1: Ryan Pepio is going to be a pretty nice bargain

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Speaker 1: for you this season as that SP three SP four

420
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Speaker 1: a guy that I think can exceed SP three or

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Speaker 1: SP four for sure. As Zeri Perez, I don't really

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Speaker 1: understand the projections on him. Almost across the board. It's

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Speaker 1: a four oh nine four oh four three nine eight

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Speaker 1: e R with a one twenty whip for most systems,

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Speaker 1: and considering he came back in his first year from

426
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Speaker 1: Tommy John, he gave you twenty starts where yes it

427
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Speaker 1: was a four twenty five ERA, but every supporting metric

428
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Speaker 1: was good. The FIP was at three sixty seven, the

429
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Speaker 1: expected ERA was at three twenty four, the whip was

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Speaker 1: at one oh five, and command is usually a big

431
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Speaker 1: concern for guys in their first year back from Tommy John.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't really for uri eight percent walk rate was

433
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 1: about in line with where he'd been in the past.

434
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 1: The stuff was actually better than previous seasons. I think

435
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 1: that he is an ace in the waiting, in the making,

436
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: I should say, and people aren't really drafting him as

437
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 1: such in the NFBC. They are more and more. He's

438
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: heading into the sixties. But like I said before, the

439
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: consumer leagues, it seems like Uri Perez is still heavily discounted,

440
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: and I think maybe the projections are keeping his price

441
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 1: down a little bit in those formats.

442
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 4: Absolutely, and you know you've got a great pitcher's park

443
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 4: there in Miami. Maybe people are worried about the competition

444
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 4: in the NL East or whatever that he may be

445
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 4: facing on any given night, but still the stuff plays

446
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 4: and he's just so fun to watch. I think we

447
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 4: have one of the top breakout candidates. We could be

448
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: talking Uri Perez getting Cy Young votes this season very easily.

449
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: In my book, Yeah, one of my bold predictions for

450
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 1: the year is that he'll be a top five starter.

451
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 2: Now I don't know.

452
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 1: If it's likely, but it's bold for a reason. But

453
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,199
Speaker 1: I think SP one. If he could finish as an

454
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 1: SP one, I'd be pretty happy with that. Top twelve,

455
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: top fifteen, depending on your format. The other guy that

456
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 1: I'm really in on this year, and I drafted him

457
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: last night is Brenton Doyle, and he had an amazing

458
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. It was twenty three homers, thirty stolen bases.

459
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 1: He gave you a decent batting average two sixty two

460
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 1: sixty I guess would considered a plus in this day

461
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: and age.

462
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: Last year.

463
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 1: Last year was a poor season on the surface, but

464
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: still give you fifteen homers, eighteen stolen bases, and the

465
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: thing with him is that the power metrics below the

466
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 1: surface were intact. Everything was the same. I feel like

467
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: Brenton Doyle and I know we've mentioned on the channel

468
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 1: a couple of times Bretton Doyle dealt with a personal

469
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,719
Speaker 1: tragedy last year was something we're not going to get

470
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: into it, but something that effect at his family and

471
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: I think a lot of the time we look at

472
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 1: these players as as assets on the spreadsheet and we

473
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: don't really factor in the off field things as much.

474
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 1: With Breton Doyle getting a clear head coming into twenty

475
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: twenty six, I feel like we can see good things

476
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: come from him. He's hitting three forty six in the spring,

477
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: he's already stolen a couple of bases, and he's of

478
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: course got course field to play half his games in Steve,

479
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 1: have you found yourself landing on Breton.

480
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 2: Doyle at all?

481
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 4: I haven't, but I do like him as a player

482
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 4: and you know that you're going to get the stolen bases.

483
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 4: The speed doesn't slump, so that's important, and he's really

484
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 4: not going that high at all. That you have your

485
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: pick of a whole bunch of outfielders at that stage

486
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 4: of the draft. It seems like recency bias is just

487
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 4: pushing him down so far that the people are overlooking

488
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 4: him or are not even considering him sometimes where he

489
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 4: could be an asset for them. So I'm with you,

490
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 4: and you know, the Rockies we're pretty terrible outside of

491
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 4: Hunter Goodman last year. You've got to feel like there's

492
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 4: some bounce back potential in that lineup. They may not

493
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 4: be great, but at least some offensive bounced back potential,

494
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 4: because really they were one of the worst offenses in

495
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 4: baseball playing in one of the best hitters parks in baseball.

496
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: It's amazing they've managed to achieve that. It's almost impressive.

497
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: If you told somebody you're going to manage a team

498
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: at cores and they have to be the worst offense

499
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: in baseball, I think it'd be a pretty hard task,

500
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: but they've managed to achieve it. I also drafted Hunter

501
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: Goodman on that team last night, so I'm kind of

502
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 1: buying into the Rockies and Willie Cashro is a guy

503
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 1: I can get behind. It's not a terrible team for fantasy,

504
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 1: especially with half their games in that ballpark. Mickey Moniac

505
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 1: at home against Rady's. I can get behind it. I

506
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: can get behind certain certain members of the team.

507
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 2: Guys.

508
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: We are going to talk about some spring training risers

509
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: in ADP, but first I want to remind you about

510
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513
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,920
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514
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,200
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00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,520
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00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,640
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522
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,879
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526
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531
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 5: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be

532
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:44,760
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533
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,000
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534
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,239
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535
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,760
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536
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,680
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537
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,199
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538
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:01,520
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539
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about some adp risers, and I'd be remiss

540
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: if I didn't mention Jack caglion jack calianone to use

541
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 1: the traditional Italian pronunciation here I know Joe would be

542
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: upset with me if I didn't use it.

543
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: I love the kid.

544
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: I am absolutely head over heels for Jack Caglion, what

545
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 1: he's doing in spring what he did in the World

546
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: Baseball Classic, what he did in Florida as a college player.

547
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: He's just been impressive at every step he's been to,

548
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: except for his first cup of coffee in the big leagues,

549
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: where he was miserable. But I think if you're looking

550
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 1: at the plate discipline, the strikeouts and walk rates, I

551
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: can expect quite a bit better than a forty six

552
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 1: WRC plus and a one to fifty seven batting average

553
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: from Jack. But he is going up. His price is

554
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 1: rising due to the WBC, due to some hard hit

555
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: balls throughout spring training. Are you following drafters up the

556
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 1: board with Jack Caglion.

557
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 4: Steves, Yeah, I had to move him up my draft

558
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 4: board in the last couple of weeks. As as his performance,

559
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,239
Speaker 4: you know, was outstanding in the World Baseball Classic. It

560
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 4: was fun to watch, he was having a good time

561
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 4: out there, and we just you know, it's not hard

562
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 4: to remember a year ago at this time when he

563
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 4: was still in the minor leagues and there was a question,

564
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 4: you know, how fast will he progress to the majors

565
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 4: and all of that. He had just off the charts

566
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 4: power coming up as through Florida and into the minor leagues,

567
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 4: and his ops at Omaha was eleven thirty one. So

568
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 4: I mean, he just crushed that triple A. He was

569
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 4: right there on the cusp of the majors and then

570
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 4: for whatever reason, failed to launch. But still, I mean

571
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 4: he still showed, as you mentioned, pretty good plate patients

572
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 4: for somebody who hits the ball that hard and is

573
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 4: that big of a power hitter. So what we have

574
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 4: for a lot of young players is they just need reps.

575
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 4: They need consistency and if you're in and out of

576
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 4: the lineup, and that was kind of what was going

577
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 4: on with him last year in Kansas City. Seems like

578
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 4: the right field job is his from day one this year,

579
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 4: and I think that will be a lot.

580
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 3: Easier for him to deal with.

581
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 4: You know, one less distraction about am I going to

582
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 4: be in the lineup today or not? And so for

583
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 4: that reason, I think getting at least a cup of

584
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 4: coffee in the majors last year, or a shot of

585
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 4: espresso or whatever, I guess that will help considerably, and

586
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: I really like him for Fantasy this year.

587
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: That Espresso reference, We're gonna have to clip that because

588
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: that was phenomenal to see. And actually an Espresso roto

589
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: wear shirt that they made that I ordered about as

590
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 1: soon as I could click the buttons to get it here.

591
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: Being the Italian that I am, I love Jackson. I

592
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: think he's in for a big year. Twenty five plus

593
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: home runs, decent batting average, and improving lineup, a good

594
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: team around him. I'm all in on jack this year.

595
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: Let's just hope that he doesn't reach inside the top

596
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 1: one hundred, because then I would get a little.

597
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: Nervous, but we're heading there.

598
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: I just hope we keep him in the one forties

599
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: one fifties for the at least the rest of my drafts.

600
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: White Langford is a guy as well that has had

601
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: a really hot spring. Kind of not really talked about

602
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: so much, but thirteen games he has five homers, ten runs,

603
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 1: fifteen ribbies, and a four to fifty five batting average.

604
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: Obviously the runs and ribbies don't really matter, but five

605
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: home runs hitting four to fifty in spring to this point,

606
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: White Langford was already an expensive pick, but if you

607
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: look at the trends over the last couple of weeks,

608
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: we're seeing a couple of times he's been taken inside

609
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: the top thirty, top thirty five. I've always been a

610
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: big Langford guy. The man concern for me is the

611
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: repeated oblique hamstring issues that he had last year and

612
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: the often recurrence of those type of injuries. Any concern

613
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 1: about taking White Langford with your third or fourth round

614
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: pick this year, Steve.

615
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the upside is tremendous and despite all

616
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 4: of those stints I think three separate stints on the

617
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 4: injured list last year, he still had a twenty twenty season,

618
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 4: and so you've got to figure that he's going to

619
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 4: be able to put together or win. He puts together

620
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 4: a full healthy season, it's going to be phenomenal and

621
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 4: it's going to be an an all category performer that

622
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 4: we will love and uh for upside, sure, I think

623
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 4: you can dream on whyit at Langford this year. He's

624
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 4: just twenty four and with the good spring, you know,

625
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,239
Speaker 4: renewed confidence going into the start of the season, I

626
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 4: think we can expect a.

627
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 3: Wonderful year from Why at Langford. So I'm I'm in

628
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 3: at that price.

629
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 1: I am as well, a guy that I thought I

630
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: was going to be really in on, and I have

631
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: been to this point kind of taking my foot off

632
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: the gas a little bit. Though.

633
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: Is Emmit Shean?

634
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: Emmic Sheen in the main event draft that we mentioned earlier,

635
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: which is an eighteen hundred dollars entry fee fifteen team

636
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: roto format. His ADP is now eighty four eighty four

637
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: for Emmit she and a guy who had been going

638
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: in the one twenties, one thirties, one forties for most

639
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: of the draft season. He is flying up the draft

640
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: board and I'm a little bit nervous. And I mentioned

641
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: Nick Pollock earlier. Nick tweeted something a few days ago

642
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: about Emmit Shean has fastball to velocity, declining throat his start,

643
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: and eventually by the fourth inning he was sitting ninety

644
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: one to five or ninety one six. Not what I

645
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: want to see from a guy who was sitting ninety

646
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: five six last year and in spring this year he's

647
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: down almost two full notches. But I love the talent.

648
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: The talent's almost unimpeachable. The team context, he could win

649
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,479
Speaker 1: every start hypothetically for the Dodgers. I want to take

650
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: him Steve. But pick eighty four is getting a little

651
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: bit cost prohibitive for me.

652
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, but you look at the numbers from

653
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 4: last year in really getting his first look at major

654
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 4: league hitters. The RA under three, the whip under one,

655
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 4: strikeout rate among the tops if he had enough innings

656
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 4: to qualify, would be among the leaders there, and the

657
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 4: strikeout to walk ratio even over fours. That's just fabulous

658
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 4: and what a base of skills to start with. And

659
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: the thing that impresses me the most, and hopefully this

660
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: dip in velocity. I mean, we see this in spring

661
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 4: training with so many pitchers. You come through a dead

662
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 4: arm period or whatever, and you lose velocity, you lose

663
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 4: some effectiveness, and for a lot of pitchers that phase

664
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 4: just passes and we get into the regular season and

665
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 4: nobody really thinks about it. So hopefully that's what we're

666
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 4: dealing with here. I just think about last year his

667
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 4: elite swinging strike rate. You can when you have that,

668
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 4: it doesn't really matter as much the sample size if

669
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 4: you're getting batters to swing and miss at your pitches.

670
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,959
Speaker 4: And I think for image and that was maybe the

671
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 4: most impressive thing that I saw with him. I don't

672
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: think you know that's going to go away anytime soon.

673
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 4: And with so many other question marks in that Dodger's rotation,

674
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 4: somebody who can stay healthy for a full season is

675
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 4: there to take advantage of it. I think Shean is

676
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 4: an excellent guy to target, but as he keeps moving up,

677
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 4: as you mentioned, there are some concerns that you may

678
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: be passing up somebody else who may be a little

679
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 4: bit more solid, a little bit more with a longer

680
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 4: track record.

681
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

682
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: I think in the consumer leagues you're not going to

683
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: have to pay quite a premium. If you're looking at

684
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: like Fantasy Pros consensus ADPs.

685
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 2: He's still outside of the top one hundred picks.

686
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 1: So while he is going up, I think that is

687
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: just the NFBC brain where you're looking to shoot for

688
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: this high upside as possible. But Fantasy Pros consensus is

689
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: one thirty seven, so fifty pick difference is quite stark.

690
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: Yeah.

691
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: I think we need to mention.

692
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 1: At least Connor Griffin here because people are still drafting.

693
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: We went to the ninth or tenth round in my

694
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: draft last night. I don't really get it. I know

695
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: he's hit the four home runs in spring but other

696
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: than that, he's not really drawn walks. He's hitting a

697
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: buck ninety four with a two ninety three on base rate,

698
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 1: and they're kind of hinting that he's not going to

699
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: start the year in the majors. I personally have him

700
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 1: ranked third among the big three shortstops with Weather Holton McGonagall,

701
00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: and I'm probably on an island there, but I think

702
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: the other two just have such a clear path to

703
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: playing where Griffin. We saw the we saw what the

704
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: Bucks did last year with Bubba Chandler. We thought he

705
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: was gonna be up in April and we had to

706
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: wait five months. Do I expect that, No, But I

707
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 1: also don't really trust the Pirates to do the right

708
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: thing here, Steve, No, I see.

709
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 4: I think the comments you're referring to that I saw

710
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 4: too from Don Kelly is that you know, when the

711
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 4: time comes, you know, he was throwing out things like that,

712
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 4: and it's going to be fun. I think that kind

713
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 4: of indicates that he's probably going to go to Triple A,

714
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 4: which you know, he didn't spend any time at Triple

715
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 4: A last year. He ended the season at Double A,

716
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,719
Speaker 4: so that makes a lot of sense. That said, I

717
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 4: still feel like the Pirates will promote him soon, you know,

718
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: maybe at the end of April or or something fairly

719
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 4: soon during the season, because I mean, this is a

720
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 4: team we've we've heard it repeated over and over about

721
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 4: Paul Skeins is not going to be there forever. You're

722
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 4: not going to have Paul Skins in Pittsburgh, you know,

723
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 4: beyond what he contractually obligated to, and you want to

724
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 4: get as much talent in the majors surrounding him as possible.

725
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 4: And while you may have your concerns about whether Marcelo

726
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 4: Zuna is that or Ryan O'Hearn is that, or Brandon

727
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 4: Lao is that, they're at least an upgrade on what

728
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 4: the Pirates did have. And so I feel like Connor

729
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 4: Griffin is going to be part of that as well,

730
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: and sooner rather than later. So maybe if you know,

731
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 4: some of the hype cools a little bit because he's

732
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 4: not walking at all in spring training and you know,

733
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 4: he's not hitting for average, maybe that produces a little

734
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 4: bit of a buying opportunity. I just feel like everybody

735
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 4: wants to have at least one share of Connor Griffin

736
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 4: this year just because of what might happen, and that

737
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 4: was that was my approach in my tal wars in

738
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 4: l draft and going the extra dollar to get Connor

739
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 4: Griffin on my roster. I think he's going to be

740
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 4: a special talent. And again he doesn't turn twenty until

741
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 4: mid April.

742
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: It's insane, it really is insane how talented he is.

743
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 1: We had Jeff Ponce on our Fantasy Fest last week

744
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: and Jeff said that in his twenties or some odd

745
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: years of covering baseball, he might be the most talented

746
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: prospect he has ever seen. It's high praise for Connor Griffin,

747
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: but as you mentioned, not a single game in Triple A,

748
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 1: only twenty one games in Double A, so maybe he

749
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: needs a little bit more seasoning. But once he's up,

750
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: you know, talking real fantasy, this could be a five

751
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: or six win player in real life baseball, once he

752
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: is up in Hall of Fame type of upside. I

753
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: just hope that we get to see him sooner than later.

754
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: We'll wrap up with one more player, and I'm contractually

755
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: obligated to talk about the Blue Jays at least once

756
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 1: on every show that I do. Dalton Varshow hit his

757
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: fifth home run of spring today, you know, he's hitting

758
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: four hundred, which I don't expect to carry over. But

759
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 1: Dalton Varshow last year twenty home runs in seventy one games,

760
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: a fifteen point nine percent bail rate that he is

761
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: replicated in spring to this point, and something that we

762
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 1: sometimes forget about, but it is actually pretty important in

763
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: my eyes. It's a contract here for Dalton Varshow, he's

764
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: playing for a new deal, maybe a little bit of

765
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,879
Speaker 1: extra motivation. He was on a forty home run pace

766
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 1: last year. Steve, I think the upside is pretty massive

767
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: for Dalton Varshow. What are your expectations for him and

768
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: where are you willing to take a shot on him?

769
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 4: Absolutely I am, and if he's going after pick two

770
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 4: hundred or wherever in drafts, that power potential is super enticing.

771
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 4: Of course, it comes with a two twenty seven career

772
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 4: batting average, so we have to realize that there's a

773
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,720
Speaker 4: downside there. But in terms of finding that kind of power,

774
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 4: I think you mentioned he had only twenty home runs

775
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 4: last year because he didn't play very much and played

776
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 4: hat less than half a season. So if you're just

777
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 4: scanning the stats from last year or you know, whatever,

778
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 4: your your draft software is and it has last year's stats.

779
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 4: He's not going to jump out. But if you know

780
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: the rates that he was hitting home runs at last year,

781
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 4: you know that this is a power bat to be

782
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 4: reckoned with. So I like him. I think he's a

783
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 4: good late round sleeper obviously, and everybody's going to need

784
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: power and he certainly can provide it.

785
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 1: As such an elite defender, there's no risk of him

786
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 1: coming off the field, and you know, sitting for half

787
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: the games, even against left handed pitching, he will play.

788
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: And if you look at the projection that gives him

789
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: the most playing time, which is the ZIPS depth chart projections,

790
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: they give him just shy have six hundred plate appearances,

791
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: thirty two homers, nine steals, ninety three RBI and eighty

792
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: four runs. I'll work around to two twenty seven batting

793
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 1: average if I'm getting that, and a guy who's going

794
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: in the same spot, whether it's Fantasy pros, whether it's

795
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: NFBC ADP pick two hundred. Like you said, so, I

796
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: think he is well worth the risk there, Steve, I

797
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: really appreciate you taking the time. I know between baseball

798
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 1: and March Madness, there's a lot going on but I

799
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 1: really appreciate you coming on today.

800
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 4: Hey Joe, this has been a pleasure and it's helped

801
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,839
Speaker 4: me a little bit for the drafts that I still

802
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 4: have left so beautiful. Looking forward to getting those done

803
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 4: and getting the season started.

804
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: Where can people keep up with your work?

805
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: I know we're at USA Today, but social media, any

806
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 1: articles or anything coming up you want to plug?

807
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 4: Sure, Yeah, we're just in fact, the print version of

808
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 4: USA Today Sports Weekly just came out this week. It's

809
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 4: our big Fantasy extra issue where it has labor draft

810
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 4: results and all projections and all of the analysis and everything.

811
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 4: So if you like to have a copy of something

812
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 4: in your hand to take to your draft, please check

813
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 4: that out. A lot of the information in there is

814
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 4: online at USA today dot com, and you can find

815
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 4: me on social media.

816
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 3: I'm at Steve A. Gardner.

817
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 2: Guys.

818
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: Make sure you're following Steve keeping up with all that

819
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: he has going on in the fantasy world. One of

820
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: the absolute past, the true legend, And we really appreciate

821
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: you taking the time today, guys. For Steve Gardner, I'm

822
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: Joe Rico. We'll talk to you next time right here

823
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast.

824
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

825
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 5: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

826
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 5: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

827
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,960
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828
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 5: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

829
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,240
Speaker 5: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB