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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I can just about that action

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: Here, we all from throwing out shape.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting up a cash toto. That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamble is ships. When they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to swin. That's incredible, big bank small. I like

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Speaker 1: to make money, all right. This is the ultimate combining.

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Speaker 1: If you want to fall, and we are under way,

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Speaker 1: what's if? Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 1: by DraftKings. I'm your host, Chris Raybond. This is our

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Speaker 1: NFL Week eight betting preview. We're gonna talk sides, totals, props, moneyline, dogs, touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: and as always, we will build our Sunday six pack

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Speaker 1: up against the spread bets with the help of my

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Speaker 1: co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Brother? I don't what is this week? What?

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Speaker 2: Week eighth? Eighth?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, had a rough Week seven, first real rough one

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Speaker 3: of the year on the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't bad.

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Speaker 3: I think I went one and two on my picks, hit,

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Speaker 3: my total hit, my money line dog.

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Speaker 2: But I added a.

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Speaker 3: Bunch of dogs on some injury news like the Titans.

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Speaker 3: I added because their d line was back and of

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Speaker 3: course that backfired. Jeffrey Simmons going out was just a

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Speaker 3: disaster for that defense. But a bunch of the injury stuff. Look,

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Speaker 3: we do this on Wednesday, and I bet these on Wednesday.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes the injury stuff's gonna work your way. Sometimes it's not.

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Speaker 3: In my case last week it really didn't. A bunch

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Speaker 3: of bad fourth down turnover variance, But that happens in

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Speaker 3: a week.

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Speaker 2: I mean, like the.

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Speaker 3: Eagles were very healthy, thought that they weren't going to

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Speaker 3: be the Chargers offensive lines and mess. That was just

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Speaker 3: a bad call there. And but the Vikings maybe the angriest,

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Speaker 3: I mean, they should have covered that. They would like

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Speaker 3: a net thirteen percent success rate net plus thirteen percent

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Speaker 3: success right there in the red zone six times at

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Speaker 3: one touchdown. They had a drop for the cover, a

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Speaker 3: holding call took away the cover. The Eagles had a

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Speaker 3: bunch of long bombs. It's basically all they did. Now,

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Speaker 3: Hurt's played well, but on a down to down basis,

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Speaker 3: the Vikings dominated that game but just couldn't punch it in.

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Speaker 2: And then they threw a pick six as well.

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Speaker 3: So but that's what you're gonna get with Carson went

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Speaker 3: sometimes so, but as I always say, who cares, We're

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Speaker 3: onto this week where holy moly, I mean, there's the

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Speaker 3: potential where has at this moment, like thirty three percent

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Speaker 3: a third of the league's original starting quarterbacks are currently

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Speaker 3: out or in doubt.

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Speaker 2: It's wild. The injuries are ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Six teams on buy too, so it's yeah, it's we're

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Speaker 1: really down to like half of the week's quarterbacks potentially

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Speaker 1: for this week. But it had a lot of injury

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Speaker 1: news too, so this might be one of those weird, weird,

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Speaker 1: weird shows where it either goes that way or it doesn't.

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Speaker 1: But let's get into it. Sunday six Pack Week Eighty're

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Speaker 1: up to twenty four to seventeen. Two points for our

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Speaker 1: first two picks, one point for our third pick, another

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Speaker 1: point for our total, which will give out in the

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Speaker 1: next segment, and another point if you sweep and stuck.

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Speaker 1: You're up first.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for actions. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack

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Speaker 2: for my first pick of the week.

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Speaker 3: Eight Sunday six Pack, I'm going with the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 3: We'll call it Monday nine minus one fifteen out there

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Speaker 3: DraftKings against that if you have to take a one

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Speaker 3: one and a half, that's fine. Two against the San

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Speaker 3: Francisco forty nine Ers. The Texans looked awful on Monday night.

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Speaker 3: They may not have Nico Collins, which isn't ideal, but

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Speaker 3: I think this is a great spot for Houston season.

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Speaker 3: Pretty much pretty close to on the line against the

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Speaker 3: five and two forty nine Ers, and this is just

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Speaker 3: a match where look, I know, the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 3: defense looked great on Monday. They had like your all

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Speaker 3: out max effort, you know, Kittle came to the locker

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Speaker 3: room and everyone just played to their maximum effort. And

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Speaker 3: Pennix was just off as he has been, as we've

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Speaker 3: seen on the road countless times going back to Carolina.

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Speaker 3: It's troubling and he missed a lot of wide open throws.

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Speaker 3: But this forty nine Ers defense is horrendous. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they're at a bottom three unit on paper in the league,

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Speaker 3: and they even they suffered even more injuries on Sunday night.

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Speaker 3: They lost tough Ernardo Green, their starting corner. Looks like

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Speaker 3: they'll be without him. This is a defense that cannot

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Speaker 3: generate pressure without Bosa. They're the lowest in the league

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Speaker 3: by far. They don't have Fred Warner anymore. Like, what

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Speaker 3: does this defense have going for it? But the most

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Speaker 3: important thing is they're not able to generate any pressure.

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Speaker 3: They're not blitzing, and that's what's been killing Stroud. If

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Speaker 3: you look at the games against teams that haven't been

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Speaker 3: able to get pre sure, he's looked fine, and I

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Speaker 3: think that he'll be able to move the ball here

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Speaker 3: against this forty nine Ers shell unit on defense. And

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Speaker 3: this is a Texans defense that still is among the

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Speaker 3: three best in the league, and they're pretty much at

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Speaker 3: full strength. The forty nine Ers haven't. They've been to

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Speaker 3: have had one of the worst rushing offenses in the

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Speaker 3: league to date, and the Texans have the best schedule

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Speaker 3: adjusted pass defense in the league. They're a bit vulnerable

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Speaker 3: to explosives at times, but that's not the forty nine

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Speaker 3: Ers game. It looks like it's gonna be Mac Jones again.

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Speaker 3: Three touchdowns, four interceptions over his past four starts, and

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Speaker 3: he's faced a laughably easy schedule of opposing defenses. And

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Speaker 3: look the forty nine Ers. Give credit to Shanahan for

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Speaker 3: what he's done with his team and all the injuries

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Speaker 3: to get them the five and two but they're four

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Speaker 3: and one in one possession games. A Cardinals drop in

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Speaker 3: San Francisco, wide open drop. The Cardinals win that game,

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Speaker 3: the Rams that fourth down decision the Rams arguably should.

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Speaker 2: Have on that game.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Seahawks was a coin flip game. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they've been pretty fortunate. This is a team that easily

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Speaker 3: could be you know, two and five, three and four,

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Speaker 3: And this will be the hardest defense, the most difficult

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Speaker 3: defense that Mac Jones is facing by far. So I

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Speaker 3: think the Texans on the backs of their defense get

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Speaker 3: it done and Stroud can do enough even if Collins

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Speaker 3: and Christian Kirk don't play. Now there's a chance Collins plays, right,

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Speaker 3: I would say it's he's more likely not to play. Yeah, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I would say like seventy five percent to not, yeah,

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Speaker 3: because it's a same week concussion and it was on

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Speaker 3: a Monday.

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Speaker 2: But there's a chance that he plays. There's a chance

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Speaker 2: that Kirk plays.

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Speaker 3: But regardless, the forty nine ers inability to get pressure,

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Speaker 3: I think Stroud will be able to do enough. This

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Speaker 3: is not the this is not the Seahawks front and

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks defense, this is not the Rams front. He'll

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Speaker 3: have time to operate in the pocket, and I think

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Speaker 3: he'll do enough. And I think that if you look

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Speaker 3: at the difference here, the forty nine Ers defense is awful.

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Speaker 3: The Texans offense, especially if consertant play, is awful, but

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Speaker 3: I think that they'll They'll still have opportunities to move

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Speaker 3: the ball, and the difference will be the Texans defense,

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Speaker 3: which will be the best unit on the field. So

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Speaker 3: give me Houston a good spot, good desperation spot at

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Speaker 3: home to get it done.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely dice here without without Nico, but I

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Speaker 1: do think that Houston has kind of underperformed scoring wise,

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Speaker 1: and I think San Francisco's defense has hasn't gotten lit

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Speaker 1: up as much as it as it could have, like

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Speaker 1: you said, and now it's even more injured. So I

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Speaker 1: don't mind it, but would love, love, love love if

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Speaker 1: Nico came back, that would be that would be huge.

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Speaker 1: They don't need Kirk as much because Noel is playing well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's basically if Nico doesn't play and Kirk doesn't play,

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Speaker 3: all I bet on Iowa State on Saturday in college football,

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Speaker 3: So basically we'd be betting on Iowa State again on

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Speaker 3: Sunday with three three young Iowa State receivers out there.

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Speaker 3: But uh, there's the like I even think that the

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Speaker 3: Texans will be, like, might even be able to run

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Speaker 3: the ball just a little bit, because they usually can't.

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Speaker 3: But this Party Downders defense is in such rough shape

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Speaker 3: that I think Heston will be able to move the ball.

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Speaker 2: So where are you going for your first pick?

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Speaker 1: With my first pick, the second overall of the week

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Speaker 1: eight Sunday six pack of going with the New Orleans

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Speaker 1: Saints plus four and a half at home against the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And this just comes down to a

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Speaker 1: couple of things. Number One, the Saints have you know

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Speaker 1: they're they're bad, but they've been unlucky as well, one

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Speaker 1: of the unluckiest teams in our luck rankings. This is

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Speaker 1: actually a luck a B rated luck game. So the

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Speaker 1: cover the backtested cover probability is up around fifty eight

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Speaker 1: percent for this one. But really it's just a bad

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Speaker 1: spot for the Bucks. You know they're coming off a

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Speaker 1: very physical game against the Lions, short week, going on

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Speaker 1: the road to New Orleans. You're gonna be without Godwin,

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Speaker 1: You're gonna be without Ed Evans, You're still gonna be

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Speaker 1: without Bucky Irving. So I think you know essentially three

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Speaker 1: of your top four skill players on offense, Abuka, who

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Speaker 1: knows if he's one hundred percent, who's inefficient with the

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Speaker 1: eleven targets just fifty eight yards on Monday night. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see about that. But also I think it's a

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Speaker 1: good matchup for the Saints. The Bucks, you know, they

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Speaker 1: always are gonna just blitz, like that's what they do defensively.

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Speaker 1: But Spencer Ratler has played surprisingly well against the blitz.

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Speaker 1: Ranks number two in PFF grade against the blitz, and

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Speaker 1: he's pretty top ten in some other metrics as well.

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Speaker 1: And I just think that this Bucks team, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's really their identity, so I don't expect them to

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Speaker 1: just kind of lay off here. But the matchup kind

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Speaker 1: of favors the Saints. And you still have Alvin Kamara,

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Speaker 1: Olave Shaheeds, so you have enough firepower to get it done.

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Speaker 1: And when you look at this Saints team, they've underscored

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Speaker 1: what they should be scoring. Rattler, I mean, he was

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Speaker 1: playing better and then last week he had like a

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Speaker 1: two months worth the turnover worth he plays. Hopefully he

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Speaker 1: got him out of his system. But the Saints team

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Speaker 1: I think is underrated here in this spot, and this

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Speaker 1: Bucks team is just starting to get a little bit overrated.

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Speaker 1: You know, they are like without Evans, Godwin and and Bucky.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's gonna be really tough. We saw

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Speaker 1: a Baker and he's he's still getting it done, you know,

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Speaker 1: throwing touchdowns to like Tedz Johnson and guys like that.

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Speaker 1: But these guys are going to be you know, at

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Speaker 1: some point, like people forget the Bucks went on a

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Speaker 1: four game losing streak when Evans and Godwin went down

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Speaker 1: last year. You know, it wasn't just like okay, Buck,

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Speaker 1: Baker's making any receiver look good. They're just a very

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Speaker 1: wide receiver centric team in general. So they're gonna throw

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Speaker 1: lots of receivers. But you look at a lot of

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Speaker 1: the defensive metrics. Even the Saints have been better than

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Speaker 1: the Bucks in most areas except you know, run defense.

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Speaker 1: Obviously the Bucks are great, but the Saints aren't really

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Speaker 1: a running team to begin with, So I'm not too

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Speaker 1: worried about that. I think, Mara, you know, being there,

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Speaker 1: Miller being on IR They're just gonna do a lot

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Speaker 1: of They're gonna throw the ball to Camaro at and

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Speaker 1: they have taste them to kind of mix in still

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Speaker 1: hasn't really blown up yet. So I like the Saints

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Speaker 1: in this spot. I thought they thought they should have

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Speaker 1: had a better chance last week, but they they didn't

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Speaker 1: play as well as I thought they would. But they're

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Speaker 1: still playing better than the spread is giving them credit for.

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Speaker 1: So give me Saints at home plus four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I will probably be honest with you.

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Speaker 3: A couple of things that I do like that the

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Speaker 3: Saints with their defensive scheme, they really look to limit

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Speaker 3: exposive plays, and that's basically what the Bucks offense has

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Speaker 3: to be now without Irving and without you know, and

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Speaker 3: then obviously their wide receiver room and their offensive line

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Speaker 3: is still compromised. And Baker Mayfield, I mean, he was

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Speaker 3: playing at a top two or three level and they

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Speaker 3: were winning games by like one or two in the

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Speaker 3: final minute. He kind of came back down to earth

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Speaker 3: on Monday night. And by the way, this is like

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Speaker 3: second straight road game at their Monday night. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he was bad on Monday and he was playing against

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Speaker 3: a bunch of practice squad defensive backs guys who were

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Speaker 3: getting their first starts, and he was missing wide open guys.

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Speaker 3: So if Baker's gonna have a little bit of a dip,

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Speaker 3: this is not a very good team with all of

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Speaker 3: the injuries. The defense isn't great. A couple of things

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Speaker 3: that wearing me is like, if New Orleans tries to

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Speaker 3: run too much, you obviously just can't. I mean, Vidavey

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Speaker 3: is a one man wrecking crew. And then I'm curious

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Speaker 3: to see what do Saints end up doing at center

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Speaker 3: and guard with.

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Speaker 1: The McCoy injury.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so they might they might slide Ruiz over to

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Speaker 3: center and then go with one of their backups at guard,

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Speaker 3: or they might go with Fortner I think, at center

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Speaker 3: and then keep Ruiz at guard. There's another guy in

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Speaker 3: the mix, what's his name? Simpkins. That's a bit of

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Speaker 3: a concern. But I do think that the Saints are

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Speaker 3: the right side here. I think this should be a

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Speaker 3: close game. For my second pick and the third overall

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Speaker 3: of the week eight Sunday six pack, I'm going with

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Speaker 3: the New York Football Jets plus six and a half

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Speaker 3: at the Cincinnati Bengals. I ended up joining you small

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Speaker 3: last week. It was ugly, no joy, a miserable betting

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Speaker 3: experience that I had this no, joy, I can't get

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Speaker 3: any late game joy the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: I thought, like I thought for sure the Vikings were

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Speaker 2: bringing Lake in. Nope, they didn't. I don't what is

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Speaker 2: his line? I mean, the.

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Speaker 3: Bengals six and a half point favorites. I can't get

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Speaker 3: here in any world even if Field starts, I can't

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Speaker 3: get close to this lie. I mean, are we not

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Speaker 3: remembering that the But the Bengals were the ten and

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Speaker 3: a half point home dogs to the Lions a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago, and they didn't even cover plus fourteen recently.

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Speaker 3: This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't look like Hendrickson's gonna go. This is one

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Speaker 3: of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And it's

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Speaker 3: still fifty year old Joe flaccoh Yeah, he had an

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Speaker 3: out of body experience against the Steelers. I get that

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Speaker 3: they're on extra rest here and the Jets are miserable

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Speaker 3: and winless, but this is a crazy line. Like, even

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Speaker 3: if it's fields, they could still like handle anyone can

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Speaker 3: move the ball on the Bengals defense, So the Jets

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Speaker 3: will be able to like anyone can move. But I

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Speaker 3: think it's going to be ty God and ty god

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Speaker 3: By the way, he's thirty four to twenty one and

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Speaker 3: four against the spread, including a cover for US. Earlier

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Speaker 3: this year, they were catching seventh at Tampa. Now they're

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Speaker 3: catching the similar number at Cincinnati. He's sixty two percent

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Speaker 3: against the spread in his career twenty two to twelve

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Speaker 3: and three against the spread as a dog, sixty five

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Speaker 3: percent nine to three and one when catching six plus.

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Speaker 3: He's the ninth most profitable quarterback of all time against

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Speaker 3: the spread. The eight above him if you're curious, Brady Breeze,

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Speaker 3: Goff Rogers, Peyton Manning, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, and Andrew Luck.

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Speaker 3: But look, I mean that's I just basically that that

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Speaker 3: is my summer of his play.

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Speaker 2: I can't come in.

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Speaker 3: I can't get close to this number, Like I think

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Speaker 3: this should be like four, and there's a I know,

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Speaker 3: Garrett Wilson is banged up and he might not go.

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Speaker 3: Although like it sounded like Glenn was optimistic. I was

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Speaker 3: thinking that there's a buy next week, so he's not

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Speaker 3: gonna play. But I mean, who cares If you're the Jets,

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Speaker 3: I guess because it's like you're Aready Owns. You're not

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Speaker 3: going anywhere so he might play. That would be massive.

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Speaker 3: And they're saying that Tyler Taylor is day to day,

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Speaker 3: but I think he's fine with his knee. I think

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Speaker 3: he's going to get the start, and I do think

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Speaker 3: he is an upgrade over fields. The Bengals also don't blitz.

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Speaker 3: They don't get pressure, and that's what's killed both Jet quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: So I think they'll be fine to move the lawyer.

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Speaker 3: I mean, maybe just handing it off, but they'll be

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Speaker 3: open receivers no matter who's out there. This is a

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Speaker 3: horrendous defense. And look the Jets defense, it's top seven

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Speaker 3: and Russian pass success rate. They give up they do

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Speaker 3: give up some explosives, but this Bengals team last week

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Speaker 3: novel sate. They can't run the ball. I know they

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Speaker 3: have great receivers, but Flacco will give you the ball.

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Speaker 3: Flacco will turn the ball over on most weeks. And

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Speaker 3: if there's one team that's due for some turnovers, it's

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Speaker 3: the Jets. They have a minus nine turnover differential that's

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Speaker 3: worse than the league. They forced one turnover all year,

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Speaker 3: and they are overdue. That's why there's such a difference

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Speaker 3: between like their EPA per play part of that's explosives,

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Speaker 3: but they just haven't. They've been unlucky, and turnovers are

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Speaker 3: a lot of luck. So yeah, I don't think that

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Speaker 3: this is the worst matchup. I know that Sauce Gardner

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Speaker 3: is also in concussion protocol, so his status is up

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Speaker 3: in the air, which is big against this receiving corps.

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Speaker 3: But Carter is back, so you know that's big. You

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Speaker 3: have him in the slot, you have Brownlee, you know,

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Speaker 3: and you have I hate him, but who's the X

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Speaker 3: Rayven on the other on the outside, Stevens Stevens, Steve

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Speaker 3: and then Stiggers.

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Speaker 2: It looks like is gonna go. So I think you

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Speaker 2: have enough.

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Speaker 3: Guy, You just play deeper here and you should be

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Speaker 3: able to get some pressure and Flacco, I think, is

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Speaker 3: going to give you the ball. Tyrod generally does not,

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Speaker 3: So this could be a game where and they're so

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Speaker 3: overdue for it that the Jets win the turnover battle.

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Speaker 3: But bottom line, this line is just way too high.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you're asking this Bengals team with no defense,

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Speaker 3: no offensive line, no running game, and a forty year

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Speaker 3: old quarterback who turns it over to win by seven

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Speaker 3: or more got to take the Jets sadly.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, I'm gonna have to play the Jets again

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Speaker 1: until they until they cover at this point, and I

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Speaker 1: hate it. I hate it. I'm sure everyone on this

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Speaker 1: podcast hates it.

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Speaker 3: But before I had a couple of covers for us

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Speaker 3: this year. They covered against the Bucks, they covered for

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Speaker 3: the against the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, that's right. I forgot.

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Speaker 3: They do better in this role, like keep it close,

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Speaker 3: don't win when you need them to win. That's when

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Speaker 3: it gets sketchy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the gardener, the gardener absence does give me

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Speaker 1: pause like that. That was the one that probably said

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Speaker 1: okay that I mean just kind of way off. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is probably I mean, if Gardner's out, this probably

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Speaker 1: gets to seven at some point, which would be just

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Speaker 1: utterly insane.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I am.

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Speaker 3: I haven't put this in the appia because I'm waiting,

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Speaker 3: but it wouldn't matter for the contest at seven. So

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Speaker 3: but yeah, I'm gonna wait to see. I'm waiting to

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Speaker 3: see where this goes. But if it's at six and

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Speaker 3: a half, I would play it at six and a half.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna wait to see if it goes to seven.

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Speaker 1: All right, Before we move on, there is a quick

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00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,120
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Speaker 1: bet wins, the crown is yours. All right. For my

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Speaker 1: second pick to fourth overall of the week eight Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack, I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half at the Denver Broncos. Curious to hear

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on this. Stuck was a play I didn't

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Speaker 1: know if I was gonna be on really like, I didn't.

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Speaker 1: I didn't circle it to kind of start the week.

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Speaker 1: The more I looked into it, the more I liked it.

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Speaker 1: That's just kind of because of the matchup with the

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Speaker 1: with the schemes for each team. You know, Denver they

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Speaker 1: played man coverage at the highest rate in the league,

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott seven point nine yards per dropback versus man

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Speaker 1: five point point six versus zone UH. And then you

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Speaker 1: know Denver playing the third most single high safety about

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Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the time and the fewest uh

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Speaker 1: you know, too high show around thirty two percent of

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Speaker 1: the time, and Dak is killing single high UH seven

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Speaker 1: point four yards per drop back. He's a one point

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00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 1: four less against too high. And then on the other side,

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Speaker 1: it's the opposite. It's like Dallas. They did play more

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Speaker 1: man coverage draft weekend. Again, probably call Washington a little

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Speaker 1: off guard, but for the year, zone coverage has been

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Speaker 1: kind of their calling card. Uh it playing zone at

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Speaker 1: the second highest rate over the course of the year,

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Speaker 1: the man at the second, man coverage at the second

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Speaker 1: lowest rate, and bo knicks four point nine yards a

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Speaker 1: drop back verse zone six point two versus man. And

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Speaker 1: this Denver offense when teams played zones against them, they're

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Speaker 1: just very erratic h and Dallas is getting a little

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Speaker 1: healthier on defense. Dallas even with the strength of schedule

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Speaker 1: adjustments in DVOA ranks above Denver now Dallas is ninth,

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Speaker 1: Denvers fourteenth. And Dallas' offense has been so good. They

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Speaker 1: have enough receivers that you you know, you know, you

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Speaker 1: can avoid cir ten in a number of different ways.

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Speaker 1: You know, Lamb could move inside, you have turping to

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Speaker 1: do that, you know, pickings on Riley Moss. So there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of different matchups that I just like for Dallas,

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Speaker 1: and offense tends to be more sticky than defense, and

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Speaker 1: I just don't see the consistency in his Broncos offense. Now,

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Speaker 1: granted they've they've pretty much played in one score game,

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Speaker 1: have the Broncos. But so they've only lost you know there,

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Speaker 1: their two losses are very close losses, so they tech

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Speaker 1: we could be seven and zero. But they've also won

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Speaker 1: four in a row and the last three have been

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Speaker 1: by seven points combined. So a Dallas team that could

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00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: put up a big number here I think is a

432
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: live Doug at least, you know, getting a hook as well.

433
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: So give me Dallas plus three and a half in Denver.

434
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind it. I mean like you're asking

435
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 3: boon Knicks to win by margin. That's I mean, look,

436
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 3: they should have lost to the Giants.

437
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: Yeah they were.

438
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 3: If the Giant secondary doesn't get hurt and they have

439
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 3: to bring in Banks Banks is everything's open.

440
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 1: Uh why can't the Giants have a good talk about.

441
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: No joy, go into prevent lose all your d backs.

442
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 3: Let bow Nick score thirty three on you in the

443
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. Uh yeah, just stunning. So I mean they

444
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 3: were scoreless through three quarters.

445
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Bronco's offenses looked broken for the last like

446
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: two and a half weeks.

447
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 2: They couldn't scork Jets.

448
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, my main concern is like that

449
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 3: the Cowboys look like a different team on the road,

450
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 3: Like they got blown out at Chicago. I get it

451
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 3: that Ceedee Lamb got hurt. They you know, they lost

452
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 3: at Carolina, got up.

453
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 1: Thirty seven on the Jets, then Broncos put up thirteen.

454
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, but the Cowboys offense is very good. Yeah, yeah,

455
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: with Pickens and Lamb like kind of like certain could

456
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 3: only do so much, and you know there's so much

457
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 3: attention on those guys that Ferguson underneath, like if they're

458
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 3: a very difficult offense to prepare for me, and Williams

459
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 3: is running really.

460
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: Well the revenge game, yeah, so and then all like, yeah.

461
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 3: The Broncos just aren't a team that's gonna build enormous margin.

462
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: And then with this Cowboys offense and Dak like even

463
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: if you need it, if you're down like ten late,

464
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 3: backdoor potential is huge here. You also have Aubrey and

465
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 3: their special teams in altitude that's scary. I mean, what's

466
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 3: he gonna hit from seventy two here? So yeah, I

467
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: think Dallas is the side if you can get the real.

468
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: Quick before we move on. Brian Schottenheimer Coach of the Year.

469
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 1: What do you think if Dubs doing this.

470
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 3: Should be Clayton Adams, But yeah, I think he'd be behind.

471
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: I mean, they have to get to the playoffs. They might,

472
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. They have to get to the playoffs.

473
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 3: If not, it's probably gonna be Shanahan. Like I mean,

474
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 3: Stiking's gonna be up there. It's gonna be hard for

475
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 3: him to. Yeah, Stikeen's doing with Daniel Jones, and then

476
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 3: what Shannahan's doing with all these injuries and like Mac Jones,

477
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 3: and so he has an uphill climb because there's a

478
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: bunch of other coaches who are way exceeding the forty

479
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 3: nine ers not so much but given all their injuries,

480
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 3: But the Colts are way exceeding their preseason expectations with

481
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, Like the Cowboys have Dak Prescott' so it's

482
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: it's like, uh, it's gonna be much more. And then

483
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 3: you have vaybel too, So it's a tough market this year.

484
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: It's interesting though, because I just, you know, apparently, you know,

485
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: I was reading story that he got more involved with

486
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: the defense last week, and they did kind of catch

487
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: Washington a little bit. Off guard. So I'm like, if

488
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 1: they he keeps getting these kind of because the Cowboys

489
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: gets so much coverage, right, if the Eagles should have

490
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: like one win on the year, So if the Cowboys

491
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: could catch the Eagles for the division, I think he's

492
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 1: definitely in the running. I'm thinking about playing a little

493
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: bet on that. But all right, were you going we're

494
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: your next next one?

495
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: All right?

496
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: For my third pick in the fifth overall of the

497
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 3: week eight Sunday six pack, I am going with the

498
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 3: Baltimore Ravens minus six and a half at home against

499
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears. Just would have been been my number

500
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: one pick if I was one hundred percent confident that

501
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: Lamar is going to start and he was gonna be

502
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 3: fully healthy. He practiced today. I think he is going

503
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: to start, but it's not guaranteed. Right, he was third,

504
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 3: He was third in the rep line today, but he

505
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 3: was out there. I think he's gonna play. I've been

506
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: told the end. The expectation is that he is going

507
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 3: to play, but we'll see. It's not a given if

508
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 3: he does play. I think this is a Ravens home

509
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: smash spot, a game where they win by like twenty eight.

510
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 3: So if you see him playing, you know that he's playing,

511
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 3: and he looks okay, like I think you can look

512
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 3: at some alts here. Because Number one, the Rains are

513
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 3: gonna have their full offense. If Lamar plays, their full

514
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 3: offense is back. So you got Recuard, you got your

515
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: tight ends. They can actually run the offense. Their running

516
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,719
Speaker 3: game will look a lot better. They can present matchup

517
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: problems with their unique offense. It'll be look like the

518
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 3: offense that everyone has been expecting to see all year.

519
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 3: The defense also will be healthier. The defensive line is

520
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 3: still a problem, but rokwand Smith should be back. Marlon

521
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 3: Humphrey should be back. He was out today a practice,

522
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 3: but he was just sick.

523
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 2: We'll be fine. You got a woozy a back.

524
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 3: Hamilton's back, one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

525
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 3: Gill been Adding Yeoman allows them to go to the

526
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: three safety looks. He's kind of solidified some things, steady

527
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 3: the ship on the back end, and they're going up

528
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 3: against the Bears team that has won four straight. But

529
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 3: this is a team that has lived off of luck

530
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 3: over the past four weeks, and their four game winning

531
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 3: streak has come over. The Commanders Raiders, Saints, and Cowboys,

532
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 3: and all those teams had injuries. I mean, by the way,

533
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: this is a team that went to the Raiders. Have

534
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,479
Speaker 3: you seen the Raiders play and got out gained by

535
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 3: almost three yards per play or a negative thirteen percent

536
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 3: net success rate over that stretch during a four game

537
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 3: winning streak against four teams, none of them are over

538
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 3: five hundred.

539
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 2: They went three and four on fourth downs, their opponents

540
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 2: three for eight.

541
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 3: They had a plus thirteen turnover margin. They've gone plus

542
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 3: three plus four, plus three plus three and turnovers if

543
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 3: you take away I mean, the Bears are third in

544
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 3: each PA per play over that stret during a fourth

545
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: game win. He she's on defense, thirdy peer play, but

546
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: they're twenty fourth in success rate. If you take away turnovers,

547
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 3: they're twenty ninth in EPA per play and twenty ninth

548
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 3: in success rate. Basically been a bottom five defense on

549
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 3: a down to down basis, and now I have another

550
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 3: injury at corner to Stevenson. But this on a downtown

551
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 3: basis is a bad run defense. This is a bad

552
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,719
Speaker 3: pass defense. Lamar on this offense should just shred them

553
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 3: at will now.

554
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: If Lamar can't go, if it is Cooper Rush again.

555
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 2: This bet isn't dead.

556
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 3: Now it'll be a horrible number because this will go

557
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 3: to like a pick. But I'm telling you this bet

558
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: isn't dead, and I will bet the Ravens again at

559
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: the adjusted line because again, this Bears defense is very fraudulent,

560
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 3: very vulnerable, and Cooper Rush is not great. But he

561
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 3: was thrown under the fire. They've had a bye week,

562
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: They've gotten healthier. He went up against. His two starts

563
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: came against the Texans and the Rams. By the way,

564
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 3: those two defenses are number one and two in EPA

565
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: per play if you remove turnovers, the Bears are thirty

566
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 3: first on the season. This is a much easier task

567
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: than going up against the Rams or Texans fronts, who

568
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: are going to get elite pressure and can cause all

569
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 3: types of trouble for a quarterback. But the whole operations

570
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 3: should look a lot smoother. They should be able to

571
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 3: run the ball in Chicago. Chicago's not a team that's

572
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 3: going to get elite pressure. And then on the other side,

573
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 3: I mean, look, this is still Ben Johnson has his

574
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,479
Speaker 3: team improving, but Katay Williams still is the second highest

575
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: misthrow percentage in the league, and it's still not a

576
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: very efficient offense. They've been running the ball better of late,

577
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: but on a down to down basis, they still have

578
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: a long way to go. The Ravens also, they might

579
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 3: be making some changes on the offensive line. We'll see

580
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 3: harball usually money out of the buy and for what

581
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 3: it's where teams are. The winning percentage of twenty percent

582
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 3: or less is three plus point favorites against winning teams

583
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 3: over the past twenty five years thirty fourteen and two

584
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: against the spread sixty eight percent. Everything is pointing Lamar

585
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: verus NFC numbers if you want to go there, but

586
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 3: everything is pointing towards a Raven smash spot. The one

587
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 3: I just have thought. I did Lamar injury. I think

588
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 3: he's gonna play, but I'm not sure. I don't think

589
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 3: minus six and a half would be dead if he

590
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 3: doesn't play, but obviously it would be a horrible number.

591
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 3: So if you want to wait, I wouldn't blame you,

592
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: but I do think that this line should be above

593
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: seven if Lamar plays, and I do think Lamar is

594
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: going to play. It's curious to get your thoughts there.

595
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: Do you think he's playing, Do you think it's a smoke.

596
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: I mean he said he was third in the red

597
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: Wine today behind who Russian Huntley. Yeah, I mean that's

598
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: like it was just good.

599
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: It's kind of just like a it was kind of

600
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 2: just like a walk through. So he looked fine to me.

601
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: Whatever happened, Like, I feel like the starting quarterback, even

602
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: if it's the walk the usually the starter would I mean,

603
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: unless they're trying to play it, you just kind of,

604
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: you know, be coy with it. But it's it's like

605
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: it's the Bears and they're coming off of buy. So

606
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: I feel like everyone just assumed he was gonna start.

607
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: But maybe they're just doing that. But that's not great,

608
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: I would say. But you know the Ravers better than

609
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: I do. I don't know their specific uh you know,

610
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: kind of like I don't know if they've done this

611
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: in the past. It is value to kind of glean

612
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: that information because you know, looking at like, for example,

613
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: the Bucks, you know they they always play their questionable guys.

614
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: That's how I knew Abuka and Evans were gonna suit

615
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 1: up on on Monday night. So I don't I don't know.

616
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you tell me, what's what does this mean?

617
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna play like I like, I don't know,

618
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: I mean Hardball said, I don't. It's hard to put

619
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 3: a number on it. I don't have any shareable injury intelligence.

620
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 3: He said, he doesn't want He said, who would start

621
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 3: if Lamar Kann He said, I don't want to get

622
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 3: into that.

623
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: We don't need to put out information.

624
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 3: But people that were close like so he he was

625
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: just it was just a limited practice for him. So

626
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: he was limited on a Wednesday, so he just took

627
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 3: some reps behind Huntley and Rush.

628
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: Yes, I know, but what I'm.

629
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 3: Saying is that all I was I wouldn't even have

630
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 3: I wouldn't even I said this yesterday on the Favorite podcast.

631
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: I said, I wouldn't even have completely panicked if he

632
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 3: didn't practice today. I needed to see that he was

633
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 3: at practice on Thursday and then that he was a

634
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 3: full on Friday, because I think they want to give

635
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: him the maximum amount of time for his hamstring. Because

636
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: guess what, they got a game on Thursday, so they

637
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 3: have a They have a game Thursday night, so it's

638
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 3: a quick turnaround. So I think that they want to

639
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 3: give him the max amount of time. The fact that

640
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 3: he was out there today and limited on a Wednesday.

641
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 3: I think that means he's gonna play, But.

642
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: I mean coming off a bye, it's a little it

643
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: probably probably lowers it a little bit, but I mean, yeah,

644
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: I don't know why you would be out there at

645
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: all if he wasn't if he wasn't healthy coming out

646
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: of the buy either, So it's it is an odd situation.

647
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: I would say, it's like, wouldn't you want him getting

648
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: the first team reps even on It's not like it

649
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: was a Monday. It's like, it's like, this is Wednesday practice,

650
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 1: the first prep of the week.

651
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,479
Speaker 3: So okay, but there's a time in the past when

652
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 3: Lamar was banged up and he didn't practice until Friday

653
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 3: and then he played.

654
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I'm sure they don't. I'm sure they

655
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: don't feel like Lamar needs a ton of practice at

656
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: this point. But they are one and five, so what

657
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: do I know? But yeah, I mean, I the line

658
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: says he's gonna play. I mean six and a half

659
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: is pretty I think that line would be what if

660
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 1: down to yeah, like one and a half maybe probably

661
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: still give to the Ravens Ravens minus one maybe yeah, yeah,

662
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 1: one one and a half home field, But yeah.

663
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: It's I think it was one hundred percent in this

664
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: is going to seven seven and a half.

665
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, they probably have it at true questionable right now,

666
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: like seventy five percent something like that.

667
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, it was at one of the

668
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: sharp uh at some books that went down to five

669
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: and a half. It got announced that he was not

670
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: going to practice today and it went down to five

671
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 3: and a half and then I saw that yep, then

672
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 3: he was out there and they snapped back to six

673
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 3: and a half.

674
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: So really fascinating.

675
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 3: But that's why it's my third pick because there there

676
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 3: definitely is uncertainty, so we could end up with a

677
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 3: bad number, but I'm just telling you if we do,

678
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 3: or if Lamar is out, I will be playing the

679
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,800
Speaker 3: Ravens at minus one minus one and a half. And

680
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 3: this isn't dead at minus six and a half. So

681
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 3: if you want to wait, there's a chance he might

682
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 3: have to lay seven or seven and a half. Then

683
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 3: sevens obviously a huge number, So maybe you take a

684
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,879
Speaker 3: little bit now and then wait, and then I'm telling

685
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: you if if the Ravens fall a you know, one

686
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 3: one and a half pick, I will be betting them

687
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 3: as well. Whether it's Rusher or Huntley. I think the

688
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: Bears are primed to get picked off here. It's all

689
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 3: in smash spot for the Ravens defense will be healthier.

690
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 3: The Bears defense is smoking mirrors a lot. It's a

691
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 3: lot like the Jaguars defense. It was silver lined on

692
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: turnovers and then we saw them just get just roasted

693
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks in a row. That's what's coming

694
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 3: for this Bears defense.

695
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I give me the Ravens here. Where you go.

696
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: For my third pick in the sixth over all of

697
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 1: the week eight six pack, I'm going with the Pittsburgh

698
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: Steelers plus three at home against the Green Bay Packers. Dude,

699
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 1: it gets the three and a half. I still have

700
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: juiced up three and a half out there. Uh you know,

701
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 1: money's coming in on the Packers. It was on the

702
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: Steelers earlier, so we'll see how that goes. I'll have

703
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: a rite up on this, but this is simply for

704
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 1: me a Tom Win spot. You have. You know, the

705
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 1: Steelers coming off a loss, a long, long week to prepare,

706
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is playing against his former his former team

707
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: and home dog Tom Win, who is just ridiculous as

708
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: he is a dog off a loss. So Tom Win

709
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: has a dog off of loss sixty four and thirteen

710
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: against the spread as a home dog seventy five percent

711
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,439
Speaker 1: against the spread. Uh. And the you know, the money

712
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: line numbers are just as ridiculous that he's winning more

713
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 1: more than he loses outright in these kind of spots

714
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: just as a dog period. Since two thousand and seven,

715
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: the Steelers are sixty four thirty four and three under

716
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: Tom Win. Uh. Want to know this season, anybody, they

717
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: haven't really been a dog in this spot much this year.

718
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 1: And I you know, the Steelers aren't great like they

719
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 1: They've been lucky in a lot of spots. They shouldn't

720
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 1: be as good as they are record wise. I mean,

721
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: they probably should have won that game against the Bengals,

722
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 1: so that evens out a little bit. But the Packers

723
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 1: also have not been quite as impressive as I thought

724
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: they were gonna be when they knocked off Detroit in

725
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: Week one. You know, they've they've kind of gotten just

726
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: progressively less impressive throughout the year. And you know their

727
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 1: last four games, I mean, you had to you had

728
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: to just complete no show for the second half on

729
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: offense against the Browns and you end up moving that

730
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: game somehow. Then you know, the Cowboys in their horrible defense.

731
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,280
Speaker 1: The best you can do is you give up forty

732
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:39,959
Speaker 1: and get you know, get out of there with a tie.

733
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: You come out of the bye and beat the Bengals.

734
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: Let the Bengals cover the fourteen or whatever it was.

735
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 1: And uh and then the Cardinals. You need two touchdowns

736
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Against the Cardinals, I know the

737
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 1: team fight got the way, but now this is a

738
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: second streat road game and the Packers were on long

739
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I mean the Steers are on the long rest.

740
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: The Steers main issue. And I don't know, do you

741
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: have thoughts on why the defense has been this bad

742
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 1: with the explosives, because I know it's you know, there's

743
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: some new pieces in that secondary with Ramsey and Slay

744
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: and they kind of but the talent is there, so

745
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: like it's like it's kind of weird that they're just

746
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 1: getting this torched. Uh, you know with these explosives, you know,

747
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: because that's really kind of out like skewing their numbers.

748
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: If you look at success rate them and the Packers,

749
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: they're actually a little bit better than the Packers on

750
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: early down success rate on defense. So it's still a

751
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: team like they have all the makings, and.

752
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 3: The Packers are explosive merchants. They take away explosives and

753
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 3: they get an exactly.

754
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 1: So that's I mean, that's why their favorite on the road.

755
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: But Tom and spot Packers really kind of squeezing out

756
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: these these games. They haven't covered I think in four

757
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 1: weeks themselves. So this is just to me, is just

758
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 1: a spot I want to take uh all the time. Like,

759
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 1: I just think that the Steelers are a little better

760
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: than we expected this year. I'll give them that. And

761
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: I I think they're you know, coming out of the

762
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: by like some of the things they're doing. You know,

763
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: get Jamen Warren going on the ground, you know, women

764
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: game will and what he's doing. Get Johnson out of there,

765
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: get the tight ends more involved. Now you got it.

766
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: What's like Austin practice today. So that that'll be big

767
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: because the Packers turn his own. That's that's their identity.

768
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers this year has been one of the best

769
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the league against zone coverage. He is at

770
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: eight yards per drop back against zone coverage four point

771
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: four against man, and the Packers one of those teams

772
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 1: they really haven't played much man all year. They're right

773
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: up there with you know, like the Cowboys and those

774
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: kind of teams like it's it's not you haven't seen

775
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: too much of it from them, so you know, I

776
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: don't know if they really switch it up. It's not

777
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 1: like something they've done to this point. So they've played

778
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 1: twenty yeah, twenty seven man coverage on defense, that's the

779
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 1: fourth fewest, so that that's just one of those things

780
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: where it's kind of the scheme. So I expect Rodgers

781
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: to have success here. I expect the the Steelers to

782
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: come out hungry, and I still think they're playing below

783
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 1: their talent level on defense. So they're at home. The

784
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: Packers haven't been been in the road either. They've been

785
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: you know that ten points against the brown the tie,

786
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 1: the tie against the Cowboys, and then that you know

787
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 1: that they needed to come back late against the Cardinals.

788
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: All those those are the three road games that those

789
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,399
Speaker 1: are really where they didn't perform up to expectation the most.

790
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: Now you're going to Pittsburgh in kind of a classic

791
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 1: home Doug Tomlin spot, long rest give me Pittsburgh.

792
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, all more on this game later, but yeah, classic

793
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 3: Tomlin spot. Rogers can get rid of the ball quick,

794
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 3: which can kind of neutralize some of the pressure that

795
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: Green Bay can get, which I think is important.

796
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: But more in this game later.

797
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: All right, that was our NFL we Gate Senday six

798
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 1: pack with See we have quarterback wise, you have Stroud,

799
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 1: I don't know I.

800
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 2: Have well yeah, probably not.

801
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: I have.

802
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 3: Hopefully Tyrod but maybe Fields and then hopefully the mar

803
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 3: but maybe Russia or Huntley I got.

804
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 1: I got Rogers, Dak and Spencer Rattler. Like if I

805
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: didn't have Spencer Rattler, I would probably have to be

806
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 1: in podcast Jo because yes, those quarterbacks are way too good.

807
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 1: But I mean shouted Dak. I'm happy for him having

808
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 1: a career year. But that's gonna do it for an

809
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: NFL Week eight Sunday six pack. If you'd like to

810
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 1: tail some of these picks, just look for the quick

811
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: slip link in the podcast and video description. Make sure

812
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 1: to sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications when

813
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 1: all of our bets are tracked. All right, now it's

814
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: time for our favorite totals of the week. You went

815
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 1: first on the six packs. I'll just start us off here.

816
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with Niners, Texans over forty one and

817
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: a half. I guess it doesn't matter for the contest,

818
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: but certainly goes down to forty one.

819
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 2: You can get the forty ones out there.

820
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 1: Yep, yep, so but for the contest, doesn't matter if

821
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 1: we needed to hit forty two regardless. And this is

822
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: just a play on the fact that if you look

823
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,319
Speaker 1: at both of these teams, they've they've come in well

824
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: below they're you know, what you would expect their totals

825
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: to be, if you know, just given the amount of

826
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 1: yards and drives and field position and everything. Both of

827
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 1: these teams, you know, the Niners expected totals around, you know,

828
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: around forty eight, and I think they've averaged around forty

829
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: forty two. And the Texans are about five points higher

830
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 1: as well. So yeah, I know Nico is banged up

831
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: and Christian Kirk is as well, but I think the Niners.

832
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: One thing about the Niners I pointed this out against

833
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 1: Atlanta is that the Niners had just a ridiculous run

834
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: defense schedule, so not surprising that they got the run

835
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 1: game going. They are getting healthier, and one thing with

836
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 1: them until last week, which where they should have been

837
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 1: running against Atlanta, So I agree with it, but they

838
00:42:55,760 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: have been extremely pass heavy with Mac Jones quarterback in

839
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 1: terms of pass right over expectation, and I think that

840
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,479
Speaker 1: Atlanta matchup was a spot where you wanted to switch

841
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 1: it up. I think Houston, you're not gonna be as

842
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 1: willing to maybe to do that. I think you're still

843
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: gonna but you're gonna think you're gonna have some success

844
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: on the ground now that Kittle's back, and uh and

845
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: you do have, you know, three respectable receivers for the

846
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 1: Niners and then Houston, you know you get probably yeah,

847
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 1: probably think. I don't know. I'm he's like at Dorri

848
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: Jackson status is like Giants a Dori Jackson whor it's

849
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: like is he does he exist? I mean they's one.

850
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: At one point they said I was coming back in

851
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: like week six, and now he's Is he gonna play

852
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: this season? I don't know, but uh, yeah they either way.

853
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 1: I like the Marcus in that number three role because

854
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 1: they're playing a lot of fullbacks and heavy personnel anyway,

855
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: But uh, for Houston, I do think Euston can move

856
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 1: the ball. You kind of talked about it earlier, even

857
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 1: if they're down a couple of receivers and the reason

858
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: being the Niners defense extremely banged up and still kind

859
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: of relying on that scheme, you know, still gonna kind

860
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 1: of sit back and play mostly zone. I think they

861
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: did get a little more aggressive at times over the

862
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 1: last two games, but nothing, you know, nothing completely out

863
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,879
Speaker 1: of the ordinary for them. Uh. You know, they're they're

864
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 1: gonna they're not really gonna stack the box. They're gonna

865
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 1: sit back and play you know, zone coverage and c J.

866
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: Stroud man coverages where he's really struggled against zones. He's

867
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 1: been pretty pretty.

868
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 2: Solid, especially when there's no pressure, right.

869
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 1: And the Niners you wouldn't expect them to get much pressured.

870
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: I mean they have been. They have been a better

871
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 1: scheme that I will give them that this year. You know. Uh,

872
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: I think getting solid back was was big for them.

873
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 1: But overall, yeah, it's at some point you can't expect

874
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,439
Speaker 1: this team to continue to to just have these low

875
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 1: scoring games. I like, what is it Arizona the deep

876
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: they should have given up like a whole other touchdown.

877
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: There's been missed field goals, There's just been all these

878
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: all the types of things that have like kind of

879
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 1: benefited the Niners defense from a lut standpoint. So that's

880
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 1: why this is actually a big luck ranking game for US.

881
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: It's a strong over which and strong overs have just

882
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: crushed it. I believe they're well over sixty percent. It's

883
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: the only game that qualifies this week, so uh, it

884
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 1: is a traaring play, but it's indoors. I think the

885
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: Niners offense is improving, and I think the Texans against

886
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: this kind of scheme can move the ball. And if

887
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 1: you know, if the Niners come out and play well

888
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 1: on offense and the Texans get down, I think the

889
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 1: Texans will be able to kind of move the ball

890
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 1: on It's kind of like a prevent defense that the

891
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: Niners play at this point with the you know, with

892
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 1: all the injuries and the and the zone coverage. So

893
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 1: I do think that one way or another, we'll get over.

894
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: And this is one of the spots you kind of

895
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: have to play in a week like this. There's there's

896
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: not that many high totals or like egregious totals, so

897
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 1: I tend to look for you know, the league averages

898
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: around forty five and a half forty six, and this

899
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,320
Speaker 1: is you know, this is sitting here indoor game to

900
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: you know, a good offense on the road and a

901
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: decent quarterback at home, and the totals forty one forty

902
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 1: one and a half. So give me the over in

903
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: Texans Niners, and hopefully they come. The Texans come through

904
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 1: for you. It's because of the Texans doing things on

905
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 1: offense that we get over this one. But where are

906
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: you going?

907
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't mind that one. I'm gonna go with the Colts.

908
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 3: And forty one's key number, by the way, in total,

909
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 3: so make sure you always shopping around when there's totals

910
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: around that number.

911
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 2: Another key number forty seven. But I'm going to go with.

912
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 3: Colts Titans over forty seven and a half at DraftKings,

913
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 3: doesn't matter for the contest to chop around some forty

914
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 3: seven's out there, and even forty six and a half.

915
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 3: I love this, Like the Colts are just a juggernaut

916
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: on offense, and it doesn't look like Snead or Simmons

917
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 3: most importantly is going to play. I mean when he

918
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 3: went out the Patriots, they don't have a great run game.

919
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 3: We're able just to do whatever they wanted on the ground.

920
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 3: His loss is massive and it's a trickle down effect.

921
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: I mean, it's basically like the Raiders without Crosby or

922
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers defensive front without Bosa. He is

923
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 3: been the most arguably the most dominant in tier defensive

924
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 3: lineman in the NFL this year.

925
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: So his loss is huge. She's weak the week.

926
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 3: The rest of the defense is what There's nothing there,

927
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,439
Speaker 3: and this Colts offense is scoring on everybody indoor fast track.

928
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,280
Speaker 3: Titans probably be playing from behind. They do go fast.

929
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 3: They simplified the offense last week. I think it'd like

930
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 3: some better results or look better.

931
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think I think that the Colts are

932
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: very likely to get to thirty thirty five here.

933
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 3: And I think that the Titans can get to you know, fourteen, seventeen,

934
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 3: maybe even twenty. So I think this will be a

935
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 3: higher scoring game the first game at sixty plus points.

936
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 3: I know that second divisional games rematches tend to trend

937
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:58,320
Speaker 3: under more times than not. There's some familiarity there, but

938
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 3: I don't know how the Titans get stuck. And I

939
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 3: do think that the Titans offense looked a little better

940
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 3: last week. And the Titans also still even without Levis,

941
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: they still will give that. They'll just give the other

942
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 3: team a free touchdown every week, whether it's pick six,

943
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 3: or just a fumble. So and look this Colts defense

944
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 3: right now, it's not very good that the secondary's banged up.

945
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 3: And I mean that the Chargers with all of their

946
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 3: offensive line injuries, and they Chargers even had an offense,

947
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 3: they all didn't play Deculous gets hurt on the first play.

948
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:33,439
Speaker 2: Of the game.

949
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 3: They were down the like their seventh tackle, and you know,

950
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: they still end up putting up four hundred and seventy

951
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 3: five yards of offense in that game. I know a

952
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 3: lot of it was from a trailing game state, but

953
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 3: that's probably what the Titans are gonna be doing here.

954
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me the Titans colds over.

955
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:52,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it looks like Ashton doing practice in full

956
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 1: no injury designation, which is a little bigger than it

957
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: seems because they're not. They're just not playing Ady Mitchell

958
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 1: anymore like they played Anthony Gold the return man over

959
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: him last week. But Josh Downs also practice in limited fashion,

960
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 1: so he should probably be back as well. So that

961
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: that that's that's even better news. And then Kenny Moorebukam

962
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,479
Speaker 1: and Taekwon Lewis all didn't practice for the Colts, Jayalen

963
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 1: Jones to ir So yeah, it's shaping up very well

964
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: for a lot of awards.

965
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 2: Who's been one of the best corners in the NFL.

966
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree. I think the Titans did do

967
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 1: some better things on offense. I think cam Ward, you're

968
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,439
Speaker 1: just kind of keeping the the sticks moving at times

969
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 1: by dumping it down to the running back is going

970
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: to be big, especially a game like this against the Colts.

971
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: You know they're gonna probably play zone and and they'll

972
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 1: be up. They'll be up, and then you can't just

973
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 1: you know, take these more percentagehots so all the time.

974
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: That's how you get the Titans scoring like seven points

975
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: in a game that they should have like fifteen to

976
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: I mean seventeen to twenty. So I think with this

977
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 1: simplified offense, good news for the over So I like

978
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 1: this when I'll be joining you on on this one.

979
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 1: Hopefully I can wrap that. Forty seven forty six and

980
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 1: a half. But okay, Niners, Texans over coach, Titans over.

981
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: Those are two totals for the week. Now it's time

982
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: for our money line underdog Parley turning good weekends into

983
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. All right, stuff,

984
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: you've been on absolute fire, right will you miss one

985
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: of these all year? I think yeah, yeah, So where

986
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: you going?

987
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Steelers braw Ross spot Tomlin. I

988
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 3: already talked about the game, So let's go pick.

989
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go curious to your thoughts on this one.

990
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Giants. Yeah, I figured you did.

991
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: You had the Giants.

992
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: Originally, yeah, I was gonna take the Giants on the.

993
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 2: And but then the line, the line ticked up.

994
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 3: The seven and a half Eagles minus seven would have

995
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 3: been one of my favorite bets of the weekend.

996
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 2: I yeah, like number one. I make this around eight.

997
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 2: The Giants number one.

998
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 3: It looks like they're gonna be without a debo, which

999
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,240
Speaker 3: means because they called up Black from their practice squad.

1000
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 2: So I don't think a debo is playing. You can't

1001
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 2: put Banks out there. It's so bad.

1002
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 3: I mean, it cost them the game against Denver, but

1003
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 3: Holland also got hurt. Burns is banged Una he should

1004
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 3: be back. Burns and Holland should be good to go.

1005
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, debo, no, no, no, dice, I don't think,

1006
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 3: uh so, that's bad. But here's the thing the Giants

1007
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 3: have been with number one. It's an awful spot, Like,

1008
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:39,280
Speaker 3: how do they bounce back from that devastating the loss?

1009
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 3: Second straight road game in Philly against the team that

1010
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 3: they embarrassed, Like on national TV, we're like talking shit, laughing,

1011
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 3: Philly's gonna be ready for this game. Giants horrible run defense,

1012
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,240
Speaker 3: and you gotta remember the Eagles in that game didn't

1013
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 3: have Jalen Carter and didn't have Quinnon Mitchell, which are

1014
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 3: there two best defensive players? And the Giants have been

1015
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 3: doing all of their damage early in games. The scripted

1016
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 3: portion of their games has been so good their second

1017
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 3: since Dart took over, their second in e paper play

1018
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 3: in the first quarter. Over the past four weeks, only

1019
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have been better, and just barely quarters two

1020
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 3: through four. They're twenty fourth in ePaper play, twenty fifth

1021
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 3: in success rate.

1022
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 2: Why does that matter?

1023
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 3: Well, they're now they run a unique offense, they've been

1024
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 3: doing some good things in the scripted portion. They're getting

1025
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 3: a lead, and it's a team that you don't want

1026
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 3: playing for behind.

1027
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 2: Well, they're they're.

1028
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: Playing a team that already saw them, that knows what

1029
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 3: to expect. So I don't know if that's necessarily going

1030
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 3: to work this time around. And the Eagles are going

1031
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 3: to have their two best defensive players. Now, they do

1032
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 3: have some edge injuries. I mean, Brandon Graham coming out

1033
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 3: of retirement apparently might play on Sunday. But yeah, I mean,

1034
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: I don't love laying a big number with the Eagles

1035
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 3: just because they can get up seven and then they

1036
00:52:56,320 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 3: just sit on it. But and and Cam Jurgen hurt

1037
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 3: their center, but it accidentally unlocked last week some things

1038
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 3: in their offense because they had to go under center,

1039
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 3: and they were able to do more play action stuff

1040
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 3: and they hit some big plays under center because they

1041
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 3: go in in their shotgun.

1042
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: They are so predictable and what they do.

1043
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 3: But tof took over at center and he can't snap it,

1044
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 3: he can't shock unsnap it. He struggles with it. So

1045
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 3: they did go under center, and I think it helped

1046
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: their offense. Another offense isn't great. They couldn't run the

1047
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 3: ball after Jurgens went out, but they did at least

1048
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:34,479
Speaker 3: throw it deep.

1049
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 2: And I don't know.

1050
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 3: I I think if the Eagles going to lead here,

1051
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 3: the Giants are in trouble, and I think that might

1052
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 3: be the case. Is a horrible spot for the Giants.

1053
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 3: I uh, that's fair.

1054
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 1: But conversely, like the Giants molew out the Eagles who

1055
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 1: coming in, Yeah, I know they had some injuries, but

1056
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 1: thought to have a great defense last week against the Broncos.

1057
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: You're like, how are they gonna move the ball? How

1058
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 1: are they gonna score?

1059
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:02,240
Speaker 2: In Denver?

1060
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 1: Somehow? They have thirty three? They should they should have

1061
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 1: they should have won again with what thirty five points

1062
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: on the board, had had Denver ninety nothing after after three.

1063
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 1: This Eagles team known to just go missing on offense.

1064
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 2: So I get it.

1065
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 3: If the Giants can get a lead here, they're gonna

1066
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 3: be so I don't they don't mind your money on shot.

1067
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 1: I just I need to take the spread here. It's

1068
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: it is a luck an a rated luck grade for

1069
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: our in our luck rankings, which historically has hit uh

1070
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 1: above sixty percent or at Giants are yeah, yeah, so

1071
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 1: they they the Giants end the Jets. So that's kind

1072
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: of funny. You went to Jets. I was going to

1073
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: join you with the Giants, but I do I do

1074
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 1: where I you know, it's early in the week. Were

1075
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,320
Speaker 1: recording this Wednesday, so there's not a guarantee that you know,

1076
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:48,720
Speaker 1: all these injured guys are gonna play now howand he returned.

1077
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: He says he's fine. Burne says he's fine. A deebo,

1078
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 1: I think he's out. Uh, Slayton probably is back. Yeah, So,

1079
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 1: I mean, but the d I am worried about the

1080
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 1: defense playing in Denver. Know a lot of snaps and

1081
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 1: and just but at the same time, the Giants are

1082
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: in these games that they have no business being in.

1083
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:11,239
Speaker 1: And I mean, if the kicker doesn't do giant kicker things,

1084
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: we're probably just talking about a whole different line and

1085
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 1: the Eagles. So in our expected scores with Driver elect rankings,

1086
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 1: the Eagles lost that game to the Vikings by six

1087
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 1: or something like that.

1088
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: Oh no, thanks for reminding me.

1089
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1090
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 1: So I'm just saying, like, I know what I get.

1091
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 1: I see what you're getting at. You're trying to like

1092
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 1: kind of almost like time the market here, But I

1093
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,239
Speaker 1: just think it's too many points for this for this

1094
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: version of the Giants. Like if you look at you know,

1095
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: early down success. I know the Eagles have been banged

1096
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: up on defense, but you know, there their numbers on

1097
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 1: defense are right there with the Giants, like they're not.

1098
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 1: They haven't been good on great on defense either, I

1099
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 1: don't know where the running game has been all year.

1100
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: Uh and and like Jalen hurts, you know, goes missing.

1101
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: And I don't know if they can replicate what they

1102
00:55:58,120 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: did against the Vikings, but I don't know if they

1103
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 1: can replicate what they do against anybody. And then they

1104
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 1: just get lucky in some other way every week. So

1105
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 1: they'll probably get lucky again. But we actually hit. Our

1106
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 1: expected score model has the Giants with more second order

1107
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 1: of pythager and wins than the Eagles, like they should

1108
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 1: really have have like two to three wins this year.

1109
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 3: I can't wait to lose that wind total because of

1110
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 3: the block field goal, which also costs.

1111
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: Me as third.

1112
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:23,399
Speaker 1: Oh that was the worst few of my Oh my god, yeah,

1113
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 1: don't even it's not. But I will say this parlay

1114
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 1: is pretty juicy, and I mean the Pittsburgh leg is

1115
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 1: very live with tom But who where are the numbers all?

1116
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: I'm just let me just give them one just because

1117
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 1: they're so ridiculous. As a home dog on the money line,

1118
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: nineteen and twelve straight up sixty one percent for Roi

1119
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: fifty four percent in his career just as a dog

1120
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 1: period October On wins fifty five percent of the time, right,

1121
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 1: So it's just it's just absurd with him and then

1122
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 1: the Giants, I mean plus three thirty. This Eagles team

1123
00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 1: again should have prior wins in the Giants. So nine

1124
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:05,839
Speaker 1: plus nine forty a DraftKings for the Pittsburgh Steelers plus

1125
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: one forty two against the pack and the Giants plus

1126
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 1: three thirty against the Eagles. That was our money line

1127
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 1: underdog parlay. Now it's time for anytime touchdown parlay presented

1128
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. Stuck you where you're going.

1129
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 2: Let's go with.

1130
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 3: DK Metcalf for the DK parlay against the Green Bay Packers.

1131
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 2: I mean scored in four to six this year.

1132
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 3: The thing I really like about this number one Rogers,

1133
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 3: it's gonna get rid of the ball quick. I could

1134
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 3: see like a slant, a fade, anything near the goal line.

1135
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 3: But Metcalf is going to have a major size advantage

1136
00:57:56,320 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 3: on any of the Packers corners. I think that's big here.

1137
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 3: I think he's going to get some opportunities. So yeah,

1138
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 3: give me Metcalf in the Tomlin Voodoo spot in prime

1139
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 3: time with the Rogers revenge facing the package for the

1140
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 3: first time since he left. So let's go with DK

1141
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,439
Speaker 3: for DraftKings, you're also gone with the DK.

1142
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with Shimray DK plus four seventy five. Uh.

1143
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 1: He is the Titans new slot receiver Tyler Lockett. I

1144
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,280
Speaker 1: guess got bypassed on the depth chart by DK last

1145
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 1: week with the new coaching staff, and I asked for

1146
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:35,920
Speaker 1: his release, and he's off the team and DK, you know,

1147
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: put up touchdown last week for catches seventy yards. He's

1148
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 1: also return man, so he gets a couple extra cracks

1149
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 1: at it. Yeah, and he's just to go with the

1150
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 1: ball in his hands, and that's kind of what I want,

1151
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 1: you know, you like we both like the over in

1152
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 1: this Coach Titans game. We think the Titans will be

1153
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 1: playing from behind, so that should be a lot of

1154
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 1: you know, one to one personnel eight because they do

1155
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:57,560
Speaker 1: play you know, helm and a conco in those two

1156
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: tight personnels to start the game usually. But DK should

1157
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 1: get a lot of work here. I think he's been

1158
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 1: he's the guy that they want to get the ball

1159
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: more too, clearly. I mean that's that was one of

1160
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 1: the biggest changes of the new coaching staff. So I

1161
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 1: think he's still a little bit too cheap at plus

1162
00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: four seventy five for the role he's gonna have, especially

1163
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 1: with the with the returns, and you know he'll he'll

1164
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 1: get some soft zone, probably lait in the game from

1165
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 1: the coach if they're up. So like it, DK and DK.

1166
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 1: On DK, you got Metcalf at plus one fifty five.

1167
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 1: You got chim Ray at plus or seventy five. You

1168
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 1: parlay those two together, you get plus thirteen sixty six,

1169
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 1: so about over thirteen to one on DraftKings. And that

1170
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 1: is our anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings. All Right,

1171
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 1: we're both not at a survivor, so that is a

1172
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 1: rap for us.

1173
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:49,720
Speaker 3: I do I still have my I went with the Browns.

1174
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 3: My entries last week I saw too. This week I'm

1175
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 3: going Falcons. I think the Falcons should beat the Dolphins.

1176
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 3: I think they're a good teaser piece. I can't lay

1177
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 3: seven and a half numbers wise, but the Dolphins are

1178
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,160
Speaker 3: just never a consideration for me. I bet once against

1179
01:00:03,160 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 3: the Bills that might be the might be it this year.

1180
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 1: I mean, if Pettis is out, you still got Cousins,

1181
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 1: so it's not right.

1182
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna play though, but.

1183
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 1: Yes, and they catch up the run the Dolphins cannot stop.

1184
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 2: It's not the run.

1185
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, I just handed the b jhon No Waller

1186
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 3: in the red zone. I Mean, this Dolphins team is

1187
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 3: a disaster, but I'm yeah, I'm.

1188
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 1: Going with one wins over the Jets. Yeah. I imagine

1189
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 1: if they hadn't played each other yet.

1190
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 3: And they should have lost that game. They were down,

1191
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 3: they were like boroughly outplayed. They just got a bunch

1192
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 3: of fumbles.

1193
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:39,439
Speaker 2: The other games.

1194
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 3: You didn't talk about Pat's Browns, Pat's seven point favorite.

1195
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 3: I don't think it's a good matchup for the Browns.

1196
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 3: Now my one hesitation. I don't think I'll play the Patriots.

1197
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:53,920
Speaker 3: Drake May has been amazing, Like he's been amazing with

1198
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 3: his deep ball, and that's what you need against These

1199
01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 3: are two teams that give up a lot of explosives.

1200
01:00:57,760 --> 01:00:59,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, play blitz and play a lot of man.

1201
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 2: So though, yeah, that's how you have to beat the Browns, and.

1202
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 3: Drake May can do that. Now he hasn't really faced

1203
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 3: the good defense this year, nope. So that's what gives

1204
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 3: me a little bit of pause.

1205
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 2: But the Browns defense also isn't the same animal.

1206
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:17,840
Speaker 1: Away from home, only fourteenth had pass Dvoa too on defense,

1207
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 1: which I've found surprising.

1208
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 3: I think they give a lot of explosives and their

1209
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 3: and their road defense just isn't the same. My my

1210
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 3: other concern is that to beat this Patriots team, you

1211
01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 3: gotta throw it. Like their run defense is really good.

1212
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:35,560
Speaker 3: That's problematic for the Browns. So can't get the Cleveland

1213
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 3: on the matchup. I don't think i'd lay seven. I'm

1214
01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 3: pretty close to market. I don't think i'd lay seven

1215
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:45,880
Speaker 3: just because I May's been so good, but he has

1216
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 3: faced a very easy schedule of opposing defenses.

1217
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:52,240
Speaker 2: Bill's Panthers, I don't know. It comes down to own

1218
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 2: the Bill's approach it that's it. Off the buy the

1219
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 2: Panthers run, He's been literally elite.

1220
01:01:57,760 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and.

1221
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 3: The Bills and then the pat The Panthers run offense

1222
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 3: is also very good.

1223
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: Bills run, and then the the Panthers play a ton

1224
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 1: of zone, and so do the Bills. But the Bills

1225
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 1: could throw on the zone better than almost any team

1226
01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:13,479
Speaker 1: in the league.

1227
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 3: So Danny Dlon's not gonna shred them thrown. So if

1228
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 3: they have to play from behind, it's problematic. So, dude,

1229
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 3: this is all what comes down to. Do the Bills

1230
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 3: after the buy come out and say cook not the

1231
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 3: running back, cook cook Josh Allen and let him throw

1232
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 3: all over this zone defense that doesn't get pressure. And

1233
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 3: then then I think the Bills are gonna cover and

1234
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 3: the game is gonna go over. If the Bills are

1235
01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 3: stubborn and try to run it too much with Brady

1236
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 3: not changing many things, then I think the Panthers are

1237
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,800
Speaker 3: going to cover and the game's gonna go under. So

1238
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 3: how do the Bills approach it. I don't know the answer.

1239
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 1: I don't think it's subborn. I don't think it's stubborn.

1240
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 1: I think I think they realize, like, oh shit, like

1241
01:02:58,080 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: our best receiver is Ki Shakir. I mean like today

1242
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 1: they're preaching.

1243
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 2: That, like it would be stubborn doing that this weekend.

1244
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know it would be. I'm just saying, like,

1245
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 1: in general, I don't think they're they're running for like

1246
01:03:09,400 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 1: a lack like because they just there. It's stubbornness. It's

1247
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:14,440
Speaker 1: just like this is our this is the better where

1248
01:03:14,480 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 1: we have better players, Like they have Ray Davis as

1249
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 1: their number three. That's just kind of their Therefore, like

1250
01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:22,560
Speaker 1: Kean Coleman has been a bust uh Shakiri you know,

1251
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 1: it's only gonna beat certain coverages. Palmers, he's not playing

1252
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 1: Samuel and Elijah Moore just kind of like guys, you

1253
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 1: don't even need to have active every week in Shavers

1254
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 1: as a special teamer. Yeah, their receivers are just not good,

1255
01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 1: but yeah this week they should be. They should be

1256
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 1: down and you can use those tight ends too, so

1257
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 1: that's big for them. They can they can use all

1258
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 1: three of those tight ends and do some things with that.

1259
01:03:44,440 --> 01:03:46,440
Speaker 1: So I would think they have a good game point

1260
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 1: coming rather by they usually do. So I was thinking

1261
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 1: about the under for this game, but it works me

1262
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 1: if the Bills come out throwing everywhere, because then the

1263
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 1: Bills are going to be able to throw everywhere and

1264
01:03:55,400 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 1: the Panthers can also run until they have to play

1265
01:03:58,240 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: catch up in which and then the Bills will begin

1266
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 1: soft zone and it would just get get ugly. That

1267
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 1: is gonna do it. For the Action Network podcast presented

1268
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 1: by Draftings, be sure to check out at Waybook on

1269
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 1: X the Fantasy Flex for content with Kerner and I, Stucky,

1270
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:16,640
Speaker 1: Alan Bboc and of course the Favorites and Stuck is

1271
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 1: on X at Stucky two a mat Chris Raybon. You

1272
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 1: can find us at the Action app at those same

1273
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: handles until next week.

1274
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 2: Get this Money I Nope.

1275
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:44,520
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1276
01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:47,760
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1277
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,720
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1278
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:51,560
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler