1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall here in Washington alongside of Joe Matthew, where 7 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 2: we are inching closer. It appears to reopening the government 8 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: after a record long closure. But while the Senate has 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 2: passed this bill on a procedural basis, there's still a 10 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 2: lot more that needs to get done before we see 11 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: final passage. And as House Speaker Mike Johnson outlined earlier, 12 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 2: it's definitely not a done deal. 13 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 3: They'll need unanimous consent from all senators to fast track 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 3: their final vote. As you know, there's some procedural hurdles 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 3: that one or more could throw in the way, but 16 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: we certainly hope that they won't do that because so 17 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 3: many any people across this country are desperate for the 18 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 3: government to reopen. I'm stating the obvious to all my colleagues, 19 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 3: Republicans and Democrats in the House. You need to begin 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: right now, returning to the Hill. We have to do 21 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 3: this as quickly as possible. 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 4: That of course easier said than done. 23 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 5: Knowing that we have a travel crisis in our traffic 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:21,919 Speaker 5: control cracked down in this country. 25 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 4: The FAA each day is. 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 5: Removing one percent of capacity. Its started at four percent Friday, 27 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 5: will be at ten percent by the end of this week. 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 5: So just getting back to Washington is going to be 29 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 5: part of the story here. If the timeline holds from 30 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 5: what we understand, we could see a vote as soon 31 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 5: as this evening in the Senate. The House would be 32 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 5: looking at Wednesday in a best case scenario. But let's 33 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 5: talk to Megan Scully about this. She runs our capital 34 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 5: influence team. I don't think they ever stopped working all 35 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 5: weekend because the Senate never went home. It's great to 36 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 5: see you. Happy Monday. There's light at the end of 37 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 5: the tunnel. And then we can start talking about the 38 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 5: January shutdown, but I'll hold off on that for a minute. 39 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 5: Do we expect to see voting tonight in the Senate? 40 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 5: How quick can jo and get this done? 41 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 6: So he needs consent from all one hundred senators to 42 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 6: move this along. We're expecting some folks, including Senator Rand Paul, 43 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 6: who typically holds these things up, to do just that, 44 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 6: which would then essentially put the brakes on. They have 45 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 6: to ride out a clock, take another procedural vote, ride 46 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 6: out the clock again, so it could be days instead 47 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 6: of hours. But this morning Senator Thune was saying, he's 48 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 6: hoping it's that hours measured in hours, not in days. 49 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: Have we heard from the White House on where they 50 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 2: stand on this plan, because while it would include the 51 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 2: stopgap measure reopen the government, as Joe mentioned to January thirtieth, 52 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: it also appears to have this pullback when it comes 53 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: to the firing of federal workers, which of course is 54 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 2: in policy that this White House really championed. 55 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,679 Speaker 6: Yeah, so we have not heard anything as of yet 56 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 6: from the President himself. We are hearing rumblings from the 57 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 6: White House that he is on board with this. Senator 58 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 6: Thune said that the compromise had been floated with President 59 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 6: Trump last night and that he backs Trump to sign 60 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 6: it if and when it eventually makes it to his desk. 61 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 5: What's it like in the leadership offices right now for Democrats? 62 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 5: That is, because these eight senators broke ranks, right, Chuck 63 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 5: Schumer was still Ann HACKEM. Jeffreys just made it pretty 64 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 5: clear that he's going to stay and know they don't 65 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 5: like what's going on here, but they've not managed to 66 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 5: keep everybody from voting a certain way. 67 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: There you have on your screen on. 68 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 5: Bloomberg TV, the eight including Dick Durbin, by the way, 69 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 5: in the leadership who decided to just say, yeah, let's 70 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 5: get this done. What does this mean for Chuck Schumer 71 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 5: now to lose eight votes like this? A lot of 72 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 5: folks are calling for him to step down. We hear 73 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 5: this type of thing when voting doesn't go a certain way. 74 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 5: But how confused is this in the leadership office? 75 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 7: So I think that it's telling. 76 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 6: You know, Tyler said it at the top of the 77 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 6: hour that none of these eight are up for reelection 78 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 6: next November. That is key here and to me indicates 79 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 6: that there was some game of chess being played as 80 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 6: to who was going to step up and kind of 81 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 6: hold their nose and vote for this. Senator Durbin, as 82 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 6: you mentioned, as a member of leadership, he is not 83 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 6: one you would typically see voting with Republicans on an issue. 84 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 6: He is, however, an appropriator and most Importantly, he is retiring, 85 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 6: so that makes him a safe vote. I think that 86 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 6: that was all built into the calculus here. Of course, 87 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 6: Schumer got blasted just months ago when he acquiesced to 88 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 6: Republicans and kept the government open back in March, amid 89 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 6: concerns that Trump was too powerful and too popular at 90 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 6: that moment. 91 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 7: This, though, has. 92 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 6: Been going on for some forty one days, and the 93 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 6: calculus is changing, particularly as people go without their food benefits. 94 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 7: So that's the Senate. 95 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 2: What are you watching for when this gets over to 96 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: the House, not just on the Democratic side, but also 97 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 2: I'm wondering about House conservatives that weren't able to negotiate 98 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 2: some of these spending levels and the bills that are 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 2: tied to this. 100 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 6: So things like the riffs, the the fired federal workers 101 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 6: that you mentioned, some of the spending aspects of this 102 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 6: could really cause some consternation, particularly with members of the 103 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 6: House Freedom Caucus. We're seeing some tepid support, but that's 104 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 6: far from certain. At this point. The House leader, the 105 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 6: House majority, the Republican majority is so narrow that they 106 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 6: can only really afford to lose two or three votes 107 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 6: and still get this through if Democrats remain united in opposition. 108 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 6: What I'll be curious to see is if they lose 109 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 6: some Republican votes, if they pick up moderate Democrats. Now, 110 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,679 Speaker 6: Democrats should be having an additional vote when this finally 111 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 6: comes up, because the Representative elect Gray Alva from Arizona, 112 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 6: who has long been awaiting her swearing in, will likely 113 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 6: be sworn in prior to this vote. 114 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 2: Right, and that would make it so that Republicans can 115 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: only lose two members of the GOP to get this through. 116 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 2: It's always a math game. Megan Scully, she leads our 117 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 2: Capital influence team here at Bloomberg News. Thank you as always, 118 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 2: and to extend the conversation, we're going to bring in 119 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 2: one of those stakeholders, Congressman Greg stan He's a Democrat 120 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,799 Speaker 2: representing Arizona's fourth district and also as the former mayor 121 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 2: of Phoenix. Congressman, thanks so much for joining us here 122 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. It looks like this package is headed to 123 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 2: your chamber later this week. Just to start out, how 124 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 2: are you going to vote? 125 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 8: Well, based upon. 126 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 9: What I know and what I've read about that the 127 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 9: agreement contains, I do not plan to support it. 128 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 8: You know, we had taken a principal. 129 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 9: Position throughout the shutdown that we desperately want the government 130 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,679 Speaker 9: to reopen, but we don't want to do it without 131 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 9: also ensuring that people have affordable healthcare. The shutdown happened 132 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 9: at the same time that people were receiving their massive 133 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 9: increases in premiums under the Affordable Care Act in many 134 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 9: other healthcare entities as well, coming right on the heels 135 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 9: of millions of Americans losing their insurance under the One Big, 136 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 9: Beautiful Bill. It was an assault on Americans healthcare and 137 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 9: that is a critical, important fight as well. And my 138 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 9: analysis of the agreement doesn't indicate that we're going to 139 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 9: be able to shay that we've truly supported people's healthcare 140 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 9: and lowering healthcare costs. 141 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 5: So what just happened here, Congressman, last Tuesday night was 142 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 5: framed as a big win for Democrats. The President was 143 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 5: upset about losses that had clearly been inspired by the shutdown. 144 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 5: Republicans were seen to be taking the blame. By the 145 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 5: end of the week, a jail break in the Senate. 146 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 5: And I'm curious what you make of the timing here 147 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 5: and whether you've heard anything about a vote on these 148 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 5: Obamacare subsidies, because every Democrat we've interviewed on this program 149 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 5: said the promise of a vote was simply not enough. 150 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 8: Well, the promise of the vote was only on the 151 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 8: Senate side. 152 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 9: Obviously, the Speaker Johan has indicated that he's not going 153 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 9: to allow that on our side, so that he was 154 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 9: not part of that agreement. That's another big reason why 155 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 9: we should not be considering voting in. 156 00:07:59,520 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 8: Favor of this. 157 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 9: We need to ensure that we're going to have a 158 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 9: real opportunity to lower healthcare costs. But let's talk about Tuesday, 159 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 9: because the Democrats did win overwhelmingly on Tuesday, particularly in 160 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 9: the Purple states of New Jersey and Virginia. That wasn't 161 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 9: about the shutdown per se. It was about the totality 162 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 9: of what the Republicans are doing. These tariffs that are 163 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 9: raising costs on the American people, the one big beautiful 164 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 9: bilbo that decimated health care for. 165 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 8: Americans. 166 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 9: Mass deportation is unbelievably unpopular, and I think that was 167 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 9: a strong statement by those Purple states that they are 168 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 9: rejecting Trump and they're rejecting MAGA type politics, and we're 169 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 9: going to win the majority in the next year's election. 170 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 9: We're going to win it going away, because as long 171 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 9: as these Republicans just keep doing whatever Trump tells them 172 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 9: to do, they don't stand up for themselves. They just 173 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 9: roll over and allow him to run everything. The American 174 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 9: people are saying, that's not the kind of politics we 175 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 9: want to see in Washington. 176 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 2: If there was a promised vote in the House that 177 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 2: mirrors the one that we're expecting in the Senate on 178 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 2: extending the Affordable Care Act premium subsidies after the government reopens, 179 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 2: would that be enough to get your vote on board 180 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: now to reopen the government? 181 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 9: Well, surely to say that, because we have to know 182 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 9: what exactly the vote would be. What would be in 183 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 9: the vote? Would it be the Democratic proposal? We wanted 184 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 9: to keep the costs of the Affordable Care Act down permanently, 185 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 9: And I know that's a very different viewpoint than the 186 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 9: Republican So I just think it's too early to answer 187 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 9: that because we don't know what would be in that 188 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 9: vote that wasn't negotiated in this agreement. And that's really 189 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 9: a very unfortunate thing. 190 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 5: Congress from the President untruth social is talking about healthcare 191 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 5: and health insurance that's pulling shares of health insurers lower today, 192 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 5: saying hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding that 193 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 5: goes to what he calls money sucking health insurers under 194 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 5: the ACA should be sent directly to the public, he says. 195 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 5: He he's recommending to Senate Republicans that this money be 196 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 5: sent directly to people so they can purchase their own, 197 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 5: in his words, much better healthcare and have money left over. 198 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 5: Do you know what he's talking about and could he 199 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 5: do that without Congress? 200 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 9: Of course, we don't know what the President is talking about. 201 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 9: And my feeling is here we go again the President 202 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 9: with his repeal and replace politics as it relates to 203 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 9: the Affordable Care Act. As you know, he talked about 204 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 9: this incessantly in his first term in office, wanting to 205 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 9: repeal it, and then they asked them, well, what would 206 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 9: you replace it with? And he had no idea, concepts 207 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 9: of a plan or whatever. He said. The truth is, 208 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 9: the American people support the Affordable Care Act. I was 209 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 9: part of the Class of twenty eighteen in Congress. We 210 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 9: won forty one seats because we ran on protecting and 211 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 9: supporting the Affordable Care Act. I cannot believe the President 212 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 9: is doing this again, and it's wrong for the American 213 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 9: people what's wrong for health care. But politically it's good 214 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 9: for the Democrats because we're again going to be running 215 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 9: for Congress, and we're going to win overwhelmingly by standing 216 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 9: up and defending and supporting the Affordable Care Act. The 217 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 9: Republicans would be much better off that they just came 218 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 9: to an agreement with us to lower health care costs 219 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 9: in America, to support the Affordable Care Act. But instead 220 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 9: they keep following Trump off this healthcare cliff, and he 221 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 9: continues with his talk of repealing and replacing the Affordable 222 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 9: Care Act. We don't know what he's talking about, but 223 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 9: we do know it's a step in the wrong direction. 224 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 2: But if this is an issue that Democrats do well on, 225 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 2: and if this is an issue that requires time to 226 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:44,839 Speaker 2: hammer out a deal, I know that you still need 227 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 2: to look at what this legislation in front of you 228 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 2: this week is going to look like. But why not 229 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: pass to reopen the government and then use January thirtieth 230 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 2: as the new pressure point so that Democrats can make 231 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: the conversation about healthcare and put forward a plan that 232 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: works and gets agreement to actually enact it for the 233 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 2: American people. In the meantime, you have money starting to 234 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 2: flow in to alleviate some of those pressure points, like 235 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 2: on our air traffic control system and for snap food 236 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: benefit recipients. 237 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 9: Well, we're going to keep fighting to lower healthcare costs 238 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 9: for the American people. 239 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 8: We want to lower costs overall. 240 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 9: We're fighting against these tariffs that are increasing costs for 241 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 9: the American people. And we know these decisions of the Republicans, 242 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 9: both in the One Big Beautiful Bill and now the 243 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 9: decision not to support the Affordable Care Act, not to 244 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 9: continue with these tax credits which make it more affordable. 245 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 9: We know how bad it is for the American people. 246 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 9: We're going to fight for it now and continue to 247 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 9: fight for it, and if it doesn't get done now, 248 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 9: we're going to continue to fight for it. This is 249 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 9: not a one off thing or a cynical thing. We 250 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 9: believe passionately that we have to lower cost for the 251 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 9: American people. And that is why the reason why we 252 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 9: took such a strong step in the last few weeks 253 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,839 Speaker 9: is because people were receiving their premium increases in the 254 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 9: mail at that time, so we wanted to make that 255 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 9: point that we need the lower health care costs. We 256 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 9: need to get the government open, we need to do both. 257 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 8: It's not one or the other. 258 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 9: And that's the principal position that House Democrats have taken. 259 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 5: I want to ask you about air traffic controllers, because 260 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 5: someone like yourself has more than a couple of hours 261 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 5: to fly when it's time to get back to Washington 262 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 5: this week to vote. I guess at some point in 263 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 5: the coming days, the President is threatening to dock, to 264 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 5: use his word, dock, the pay of air traffic controllers 265 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 5: who took time off, as he puts it, for the 266 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 5: Democrat shut down hoax those who did not take time off. 267 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: He's recommending a bonus of ten thousand dollars per person 268 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 5: for what he describes as distinguished service to our country. 269 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 5: Does he need Congress to do either of those or 270 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 5: both of those? 271 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 4: Congressmen, Yeah, we. 272 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 9: Saw with the whole Doge thing with Elon Musk and 273 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 9: him coming in and trying to unilaterally fire a bunch 274 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 9: of employees and do it indiscriminately, and then they had 275 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 9: to beg these employees to come back because neither Elon 276 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 9: Musk nor Doge actually understood what they did. This has 277 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 9: echoes of that. Look, all of the air traffic controllers 278 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 9: are our heroes and many of them were not able 279 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 9: to work the overtime that they normally worked because they 280 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 9: weren't getting paid, so they had to do childcare, or 281 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 9: some cases had to work at a second job or 282 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 9: to have some level of income. Those air traffic controllers 283 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 9: are the heroes of this shutdown. 284 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 8: In fact, I went so far as to say that I. 285 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 9: Actually supported Secretary Duffy, the Secretary Transportation, in lowering the 286 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 9: number of flights at the forty busiest airports, because safety 287 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 9: of the traveling public has to be the highest highest priority, 288 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 9: and these air traffic controllers aren't. 289 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 5: I wish we had more time with you, Congressman Greg Stanton. 290 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 5: Safe travels back from Arizona. Will see you here in 291 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 5: the capit. 292 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 293 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 294 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 295 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: Apple Copway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 296 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 297 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 298 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 2: You're in Washington alongside Joe Matthew, where we're tracking any 299 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 2: developments around potentially reopening the government, as it seems lawmakers 300 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: are picking up at least some momentum this week, and 301 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 2: it comes as Americans have watched this crisis drag on. 302 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 2: We saw consumer sentiment hitting your record low last week, 303 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 2: according to a new preliminary reading in November from the 304 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 2: University of Michigan. And we have a new data point 305 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 2: of our own here at Bloomberg News. The new Harris 306 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 2: poll conducted for Bloomberg and released today finds half of 307 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 2: respondents in October Joe Matthew said the economy wasn't working 308 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 2: for them. That was up from forty one percent in February. 309 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 2: As we know, there have been a slew of economic 310 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 2: policies that have hit Americans so far this year, and. 311 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 5: As you can see on the screen, Republicans wigh in 312 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 5: differently than Democrats, and it's frequently independence we're looking at 313 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 5: in which way they're breaking here. But it does come 314 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 5: down to a very similar conversation to the one that 315 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 5: we were having on Friday when Consumer Sentiment you miss 316 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 5: consumer sentiment came out and the comparisons to the prior administration. 317 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 4: I'd love to get Jared Bernstein back in here. 318 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 5: To be honest with you to talk about this, you know, 319 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 5: do you want to believe me or your lyon eyes 320 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 5: type of approach where people are not feeling great, but 321 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 5: the president is telling them that the economy is better 322 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 5: than their experience. This is something that Joe Biden learned 323 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 5: a lot about trying to get prices back down, and 324 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 5: the president is still trying to figure out the job. 325 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd say we definitely do it. 326 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 5: Let's invite Jared back on to talk about this, because Tyler, 327 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 5: it is something that Democrats and Republicans have in. 328 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 2: Common right exactly, and both administrations have said that it 329 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 2: will take time to see their economic policies work through 330 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 2: the economy. I was struck in our story that's on 331 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal abount this data. It shows how we've 332 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 2: seen Trump administration officials at first say that we would 333 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 2: see those results by the fourth quarter. We're now seeing 334 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 2: them push out those estimates to next year. And the economy, 335 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: of course, has been critical for this White House because 336 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 2: President Trump's potential handling of the economy was the issue 337 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 2: according to all of our Bloomberg News polling in those 338 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 2: critical battleground states that really help propel him to the 339 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 2: White House. 340 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 5: That's true, and this is why we're hearing about it 341 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 5: more from Democrats these days, in some cases than Republicans. 342 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 5: We assembled our political panel for their take on all 343 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 5: of this. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzino 344 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 5: are with US Genius Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy 345 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 5: School's Ash Center. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner 346 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 5: at Stone Court Capital. You spoke to this when you 347 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 5: mish came out on Friday, Rick, and I guess, against 348 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 5: the backdrop of what we've seen in the past twenty 349 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 5: four hours, it's just curious Democrats outperformed in elections last week, 350 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 5: Republicans taking the blame for the shutdown. 351 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,439 Speaker 4: You add this particular layer here. 352 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 5: Republicans are on the ropes when it comes to affordability 353 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 5: specifically as an issue. 354 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 4: Why then, do these eight. 355 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 5: Democratic senators turn around and vote yes on the deal? 356 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 4: What do you make of the timing? 357 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 10: You know, I think that, Look, we're already at the 358 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 10: historically longest government shut down in history. There's an enormous 359 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 10: amount of frustration, grinding of gears. We've talked a lot 360 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 10: about you know, the flight situations, but also government employees 361 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,120 Speaker 10: out of work not getting paid. There are a lot 362 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 10: of pressure on these members of Congress, regardless of what 363 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 10: the status of negotiations are, who's getting what out of 364 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 10: the deal, to say, you know what, we've had enough 365 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 10: of this. 366 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 7: Let's get government back open. 367 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 10: Let's get these people back working, Let's get the air 368 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 10: traffic controllers back in the terminals. And we can beat 369 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 10: each other up over policy all day long after that. 370 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 10: But I really don't think it's much more than just 371 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 10: doing your day job. Right, Your day job is not 372 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 10: to shut down government. Your day job is to make 373 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 10: government work. This first step in that direction, but they 374 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 10: do it in the in the with the veil of 375 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 10: a very grumpy electric right. I mean, you know, a 376 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 10: lot of the economic uh progress that's been made under 377 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 10: Donald Trump has been made with you know, wealthier individuals 378 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 10: and corporations, and uh, there are a lot of folks 379 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 10: feeling totally left behind. Uh hey, that sounds just like 380 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 10: the Biden administration, where they had some economic progress, but 381 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 10: they weren't able to translate it down to the working class. 382 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 10: And so you know, this poll that you have really 383 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 10: screams out independent voters are grumpy about the economic situation 384 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 10: and their future, and the future is really the thing 385 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 10: that barks out in this poll, as does the Michigan 386 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 10: Consumer Sentiment Index, and that even though they might be 387 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 10: feeling fine right now, uh, and that is borne out 388 00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 10: by some macro and microeconomic factors there they I think 389 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 10: the future is dismal economically and that is causing a 390 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 10: lot of disruption. And we saw some of that disruption 391 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 10: last Tuesday with a massive vote for Democrats, a big 392 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 10: turnout of voters, and a real disruption the political system. 393 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 2: Well, Genie, let's get your thoughts on how American sentiment 394 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 2: is being impacted by this government shutdown, and then also 395 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: go back to this question on a timeline, which mirrors 396 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 2: what Joe was asking Rick, because we know that at 397 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 2: the heart of democrats demands was that they want to 398 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 2: see changes when it comes to healthcare. But realistically, how 399 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 2: long is it going to take to hammer out a 400 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 2: deal with Republicans on healthcare? And could Democrats afford to 401 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 2: do that while the government shutdown dragged on. 402 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think these. 403 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 11: Eight folders, as I'm calling them now, Tyler, they decided 404 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 11: that they were not going to be able to get 405 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,719 Speaker 11: there from a policy perspective, and that is in keeping 406 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 11: with what we know historically about shutdowns. Updowns are never 407 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 11: about policy changes, or seldom result in policy changes. What 408 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 11: they are are framing mechanisms for these parties to say 409 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 11: we are the party of X. In the ninety five 410 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 11: ninety six shut down, the GOP was able to say 411 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 11: we are the party of responsible budgeting. We want to 412 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 11: deal with the debt, we want to balance the budget. 413 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 11: Today the Democrats can claim the mantle of we are 414 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 11: the party focused on affordability and the health care of 415 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 11: Americans and making it cost effective, and that's something they 416 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 11: hope to take into twenty six. That said, it's very 417 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 11: hard for Democrats in particular to keep a shutdown going 418 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 11: on as long as they have, because, of course Democrats 419 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 11: are a party of government. They want the government to 420 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 11: be active, and so to shut it down makes very 421 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 11: little sense for most moderate Democrats. And I thought the 422 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 11: poll that you're just talking about, the Bloomberg Harris Pole 423 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 11: is fascinating because the numbers Donald Trump's approval, He's under 424 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,679 Speaker 11: eighteen percent underwater on the economy, and only a third 425 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 11: of Americans in this poll saying the economy is on 426 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 11: the right track. And what is Donald Trump doing? He's 427 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 11: low flying over football games. He is avoiding every opportunity 428 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,400 Speaker 11: to talk about the economy. He's sitting in the White 429 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 11: House last week, as we talked about saying affordability is 430 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 11: a con job. Well, these are not the words of 431 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 11: somebody focused on making the economy right. And this comes 432 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 11: on the heels of both Scott Bessen and Kevin Hassett 433 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 11: saying that parts of this economy are in recession. So 434 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 11: the question here is at what point does the president 435 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 11: take that seriously and the GOP start to address it. 436 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 11: The longer they avoid it, the better politically for Democrats 437 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 11: going into twenty six, but the worse for working class 438 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 11: and average Americans in the moment. And as we go forward. 439 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 5: We just heard from Adelita Grijalva, a name that has 440 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 5: been coming up a bit more now that the government 441 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,719 Speaker 5: appears to be on the threshold of reopening the representative 442 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 5: elects would be sworn in to take part in this vote, 443 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,680 Speaker 5: just out with a statement here from her district in Arizona. Quote, 444 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 5: I am planning to travel to Washington, she writes, after 445 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 5: hearing through Leader Jeffrees and media reports that Speaker Johnson 446 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 5: finally intends to swear me in. I guess that invitation 447 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 5: hasn't come directly. While I'm eager to get to work, 448 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 5: she writes, I'm disappointed one of my first votes will 449 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 5: be on a bill that does nothing to protect working 450 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 5: people from skyrocketing premium's loss of health coverage or do 451 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 5: anything significant to rein in what she calls Trump's abuse 452 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 5: of power. 453 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 4: So I guess that's a no. 454 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 5: But Rick, I'm curious your thoughts on the president's post 455 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 5: here involving the health insurers, because it's moving stocks. You've 456 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 5: got Sentient, United Health and others pointed straight down after 457 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 5: the President went on truth Social to say that hundreds 458 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 5: of billions of dollars in federal funding that goes to 459 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 5: money sucking health insurers under the ACA should be sent 460 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 5: directly to the public. 461 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 4: He says, people can. 462 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 5: Purchase their own much better healthcare and have money left over. 463 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 5: I'm sure you'll never forget the thumbs down moment with 464 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 5: Senator John McCain on the Senate floor, and I know 465 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,919 Speaker 5: that Donald Trump has not forgotten it either. What do 466 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 5: you make of the fact that's still at this point 467 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 5: when we consider the idea of concepts of a plan 468 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 5: that Republicans don't have a better idea. The President has 469 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 5: not put forth a formal proposal on healthcare to replace Obamacare. 470 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 4: How are we still having this conversation? 471 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, the President kind of stepped in it 472 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 10: again this last week talking about, well, what we really 473 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 10: need to do is not debate, you know, these ACA subsidies, 474 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:38,199 Speaker 10: but to actually reform healthcare in America. And that's a 475 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 10: really deep well that gets really dark the further Dame 476 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 10: you go. And the reality is he got asked the 477 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 10: right question, which is, well, you've been talking about this 478 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 10: for fifteen years, what's your plan? And I guess this was, 479 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 10: you know, behind the envelope, Hey, I got a plan. 480 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 10: You know, don't give them money to insurance companies. Give 481 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 10: it to the individuals who I yes, I mean, unless 482 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 10: I misreading this, then give it to the insurance companies 483 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 10: for health covering. 484 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not exactly sure. 485 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 10: How this Ponzi scheme is composed to work, but I 486 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 10: think it's just a reaction to not having a plan. 487 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,719 Speaker 10: And all the best advisors in the world, you can 488 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 10: imagine he called him in and says, what's my plan, 489 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 10: and they're like, we don't have a plan, and he's like, okay, 490 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 10: I got. 491 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 7: To come up with one, and here you go. Uh So, 492 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 7: I don't know. 493 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 10: I mean, I think he's trying to deflect some of 494 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 10: the incoming that he's gotten on the criticism of the ACA. 495 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 10: And by the way, as you pointed out, John McCain 496 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 10: went down to the well of the Senate put his 497 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 10: thumb down on what was called at the time skinny reform. 498 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 10: It was not reform of ACA. It was a gutting 499 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 10: of the ACA. And they're going to leave a lot 500 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 10: of people without healthcare. And so, you know, deja vu 501 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 10: all over again, I guess in the United States Senate 502 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 10: and then the White House. 503 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 2: Genie, we only have about a minute left with you 504 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 2: healthcare of course, as Joe and Rick outlined, at the 505 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,400 Speaker 2: center of this, but also we saw federal workers being 506 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 2: fired come to a head during this shutdown. This package 507 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:17,239 Speaker 2: would supposedly reverse those federal firings. Is this something that 508 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 2: the White House is going to go for when we 509 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 2: know that this has really been one of the centerpieces 510 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 2: of the agenda while the government's been closed. 511 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 11: Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, Tyler I can't 512 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 11: imagine Donald Trump would I had not heard yet whether 513 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 11: he supports this, but this is diametrically opposed to everything 514 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 11: he and russ Vot and by the way, Elon Musk 515 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 11: and Dog have been focused on since he got into office. 516 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 7: So maybe they'll have to swallow this as a part. 517 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 11: Of a way to get the government reopened. It seems 518 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 11: that Tim Kaine critical vote here, this was critical for 519 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 11: him and coming on board with Republicans to reopen. 520 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 8: But I can't imagine. 521 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 11: That russ Vot is looking fondly at this idea or 522 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:57,160 Speaker 11: the President. 523 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 2: All Right, our political panels today, Rick Davis and Jeanie 524 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 2: Shanzay no book, Bloomberg Politics contributors, Thanks so much. As always, 525 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 2: we're going to turn from domestic politics to foreign policy next, 526 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 2: talk about the oil market after some recent sanctions release. 527 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 7: Stick with us, This is Bloomberg. 528 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 529 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 530 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,919 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business up. You 531 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 532 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 533 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 5: A risk off session, to steal a phrase here, and 534 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 5: we're even seeing oil prices tick higher, Yeah, WTI West 535 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 5: Texas Intermedia. Not a lot, but up about a half 536 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,679 Speaker 5: percent to crawl back above sixty dollars a barrel. And 537 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 5: the idea here is that the government shutdown is making 538 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 5: everybody feel a little bit better about something. This can 539 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 5: get to be difficult to quantify in the energy mark though, 540 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 5: and that's why we wanted to spend some time with 541 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 5: Bob McNally, the founder and president of Rapid and Energy Group, 542 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 5: spent some time in the White House dealing with energy 543 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 5: matters as a Special Assistant Senior Director for International Energy 544 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 5: on the National Security Council under President George W. 545 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 4: Bush. 546 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 5: Bob McNally, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. From 547 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,199 Speaker 5: what we understand here, investors are looking at this a 548 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 5: bit differently. At least the settling of prices that you 549 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 5: have been forecasting will tip lower here, even lower, yet 550 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 5: deepening their bearish stance at this time because what Bob, 551 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 5: as you say, it just comes down to barrels. 552 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 7: Right, Joe, great to be with you. You know you're right. 553 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 12: The market analysts have been looking over the horizon for 554 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 12: signs of this surplus, this tsunami, if you will. Future's 555 00:28:54,520 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 12: curves have been flattening going into Cantango, and inventories are 556 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 12: beginning to rise, especially oil at sea. Now we can 557 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 12: track that couldn't do that twenty years ago. Now we 558 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 12: see it. And so there are incipient indicators that this 559 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:18,719 Speaker 12: long expected looseness oversupply in the market is arriving. And 560 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 12: you see oil prices gravitationally, Joe, they want to go lower. 561 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 12: They were headed lower fast until President Trump surprised everybody 562 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,479 Speaker 12: a couple weeks ago by announcing those sanctions on Russia, 563 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 12: and you had to have short covering and a sharp 564 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 12: little rally in prices. But the gravitational forces I think 565 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 12: are going to continue to impose themselves, and unless we 566 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 12: have a material disruption due to geopolitical risks, I think 567 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 12: direction of oil prices is lower. 568 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 2: Well, Bob, I actually wanted to ask you about an 569 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 2: exemption too of those Russian sanctions. On Friday, the White 570 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 2: House announced that Hungary would be granted an exemption. We 571 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 2: know that they import a lot of Russian energy supplies, 572 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 2: about ninety percent of Hungary's crude imports come from Moscow. 573 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 4: How are you watching that? 574 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 2: Is that going to make a dent when it comes 575 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 2: to Russia's revenues from barrels reaching the market. 576 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 12: Hi, Tyler, No, it's a real small issue for the 577 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 12: global oil market and for Russia's revenues. Look, Hungary is 578 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 12: a landlocked country that, as you mentioned, gets just about 579 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 12: all its oil and gas from Russia. In the case 580 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 12: of oil from the Druzhba pipeline, I mean, there's just 581 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 12: no other options. It can't bring on, you know, oil 582 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 12: from the US, US tankers and so forth, that easily 583 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 12: and so so it's about two percent of Russia's export 584 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 12: volume and revenue. 585 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 7: So it's not a big deal for Russia. 586 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 12: I mean, by not forcing Hungary to stop taking Russian oil, 587 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 12: the Russians are preserving about two percent of their volume 588 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 12: and revenue for exports. But in the grand scheme of 589 00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 12: thing is pretty small. Hungary is very dependent need Russi 590 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 12: a lot more than Russia needed Hungary. And the president 591 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 12: gets along very well with Victor or Orban, so not 592 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 12: too surprising that deal was cut. 593 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, Bob, We're going to hear from OPEK and from 594 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 5: the International Energy Agency both on Wednesday, their analysis and outlooks. 595 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 4: Will they agree and what will they tell us? 596 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,479 Speaker 12: Well, Joe, Wednesday is a very big day for the 597 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 12: analyst community, the energy analyst community, because the IEA will 598 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 12: issue its annual World Energy Outlook we OW we call it, 599 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 12: and for the first time in five years, that flagship 600 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 12: influential forecast will include something investors have not seen a scenario, 601 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 12: a forecast where, if we assume current policies in place 602 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 12: around the world, oil and gas demand continue rising until 603 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 12: twenty fifty. For the last five years, the IA has 604 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 12: only issued forecasts that show oil and gas demand peaking 605 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 12: around twenty thirty and then either plateauing or falling. So 606 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 12: while we may be talking about a glut up here 607 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 12: in the front and the beginning a couple quarters of 608 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 12: next year, what the IA is going to reveal for 609 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 12: folks again, rapid ad has been in this view for 610 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 12: a long time, but is that the medium to long 611 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 12: term is looking a lot tighter Because one thing everyone 612 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 12: would agree, Joe, we are not investing enough in oil 613 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 12: to supply a world in which demand keeps growing after 614 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 12: twenty thirty, as the IA for the first time says 615 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 12: it might instead of peaking by then, so very big 616 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,959 Speaker 12: day for the world energy community and the IA. 617 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 2: On Wednesday, Bob, in the final minute, we have you 618 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 2: what is the foremost geopolitical risk when it comes to 619 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 2: the Middle East and the oil markets? Because today, for example, 620 00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 2: we have the Syrian president meeting with President Trump at 621 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 2: the White House. 622 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 7: You know, the biggest risk remains Iran. 623 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 12: There was an excellent Stephen Erlanger a New York Times 624 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 12: report the other day end of last week, I think 625 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 12: pointing out something we've been advising clients for a while. 626 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 7: It's not over. 627 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 12: We had the June war and then people I'm paying 628 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 12: attention to anymore. But Iran is reconstituting its nuclear weapons 629 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 12: systems and its other means of terrorism, and Israel is 630 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 12: not in the mood to allow that to continue. And 631 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 12: I think if you ask me what is the biggest risk, 632 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 12: it is that we have a flare up again of 633 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 12: military conflict in the Gulf, and that unlike June, Iran 634 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 12: or others start targeting major golf infrastructure. The Lion's share 635 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 12: of oil and gas production exports is still in that region. 636 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 7: It's not over with Iran. 637 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 12: So that's the one that I think I would worry 638 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 12: about much more than what's happening in Syria or even Iraq. 639 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 2: All right, Bob McNally, founder and President of the rapid 640 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 2: In Energy Group, thank you so much for joining us 641 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 2: as always here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. We didn't 642 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 2: get into this part of the conversation, but we know 643 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 2: that President Trump has had his sites set when it 644 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 2: comes to lowering energy costs, and it appears that the 645 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 2: administration is taking aim at another high cost for consumers 646 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 2: when it comes to the price of the food industry, 647 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 2: in particular consumer beef prices, which have jumped sixteen percent 648 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 2: this year according to the USDA, Tyson's Foods Today saying 649 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 2: it expects profits to be little changed next year as 650 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,359 Speaker 2: beef continues to lose money for the company. And now 651 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 2: President Trump is directing his Department of Justice to look 652 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 2: into allegedly driving up prices when it comes to the 653 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,560 Speaker 2: meat packing industry. To unpack all of this, we're joined 654 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 2: now by Doug Farrar, principal at Maywood Strategies and former 655 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,759 Speaker 2: senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Alena Kahn. Doug, it's good 656 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 2: to see you and thanks for coming in. Can you 657 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,839 Speaker 2: just walk us through this. The Trump administration is now 658 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 2: trying to launch an investigation which sounds similar to some 659 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 2: of the investigations that we saw launched under the last administration. 660 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 2: How feasible is this for an investigation like this to 661 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 2: get off the ground. 662 00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me on. So it's to be tough. 663 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 14: They cut staff quite a bit, obviously we know about DOGE. 664 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 14: A lot of staff have left the FTC and the DOJ. 665 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 14: And when you run functionally a law firm and you 666 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 14: take on some of these major investigations, you need a 667 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,279 Speaker 14: ton of bodies. You need a ton of really sharp 668 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 14: lawyers subject matter experts to really make a case. And 669 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 14: this market is definitely one worth looking at. So I 670 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 14: think it'll be a challenge and we'll see if they 671 00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,600 Speaker 14: have the attention span to see it through and the 672 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 14: staff to really make a difference. 673 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,399 Speaker 5: I need to ask you about what's going on at 674 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 5: the FTC, not that you're there any longer. With regard 675 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 5: to Pfiser, this story today is remarkable and Pfeiser is 676 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 5: a mover because of this. Albert Borla learned that the 677 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 5: board at Metsea had voted unanimously to accept Pfeiser's takeover offer, 678 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 5: which it was competing with Novo. 679 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,440 Speaker 4: And had been some other companies. 680 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 5: Turns out the FTC picked up the phone and called 681 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,400 Speaker 5: Metserah to warn the company that it would look unfavorably 682 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 5: on the corporate structure that would have been included under 683 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:00,560 Speaker 5: the note deal. 684 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 4: And just like that, we've got a merger Monday. Is 685 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:04,080 Speaker 4: that legal? 686 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 14: Well, I'm not following it as close as you are, 687 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,399 Speaker 14: as you said, but I know that the agency said 688 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 14: they weren't granting early terminations during the shutdown period and 689 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,239 Speaker 14: they've obviously gone back on that, and so I think 690 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,480 Speaker 14: that that's an interesting data point to look at as 691 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 14: you consider what's going on at the FTC right now 692 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 14: and how they're examining mergers. 693 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 13: But yeah, it's a complicated. 694 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 5: So what extent, though, is the agency allowed to actually 695 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 5: get involved on a direct level like that with a 696 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 5: proposed deal. 697 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 14: Typically agencies don't get involved at a proposal level. It's 698 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 14: once an HSR filing has been made, a merger has 699 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 14: been announced. Certainly, the agency staff are in communication with firms, 700 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,239 Speaker 14: for instance, who are thinking about merging in order to 701 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 14: ask them to preserve documents and do the things like that. 702 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 13: But Yeah, in general, it's pretty unusual. 703 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 2: A lot of this is coming down to this idea 704 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 2: of antitrust going up against big companies. We're seeing affordability 705 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 2: really come to the forefront, particularly after Tuesday's recent I'm 706 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: wondering how you're watching this administration navigate that issue. We 707 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 2: saw Democrats come off with a win. But now we 708 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,879 Speaker 2: have President Trump and the administration announcing some of these 709 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,879 Speaker 2: initiatives that are geared towards they say, lowering prices and 710 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,280 Speaker 2: breaking up competitiveness. 711 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 13: Yeah, it's an interesting question. 712 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,320 Speaker 14: I mean, he campaigned on breaking up big tech monopolies, 713 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,759 Speaker 14: on being a sort of fire breathing populist, and since 714 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 14: then he's come in and he's been incredibly friendly to business. 715 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,360 Speaker 14: If you look at his AIEO, for instance, he's essentially 716 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 14: instructing the FTC to be a concierge for AI companies 717 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 14: seeking to roll up the market. 718 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 13: You know. 719 00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,200 Speaker 14: So this is a big shift, and I do think 720 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 14: it's driven by politics. You know, the attention span of 721 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 14: this administration is not long, and in order to really 722 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,840 Speaker 14: make an affordability agenda based on anti trust enforcement, for instance, 723 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,680 Speaker 14: you have to find good cases, bring them to court, 724 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 14: win win, on appeal, and it takes a lot of work, 725 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,920 Speaker 14: and they've lost a lot of staff, and it takes 726 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 14: a lot of attention, and it makes a lot of 727 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 14: people mad. And you go back to the meat packing industry. 728 00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,760 Speaker 14: You know, some of the meat packing executive have incredibly 729 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,600 Speaker 14: cozy relationships with the President. So if he decides he 730 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,000 Speaker 14: really wants to go after them, is he going to 731 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,320 Speaker 14: get an angry phone call? Is that going to change things? 732 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,239 Speaker 14: You know, maybe there's a donation to the ballroom. Who knows. 733 00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,480 Speaker 14: It's kind of an open question. 734 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,879 Speaker 5: Interesting, you know, you look at the likes of Gold 735 00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,759 Speaker 5: and Sachs. Listen to what David Solomon is saying about 736 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,880 Speaker 5: the pipeline right now. We heard a lot about animal 737 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 5: spirits when this president went back into the White House. 738 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:23,240 Speaker 4: Is that coming to fruition? 739 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 5: Are you seeing the pipeline filled in a way that 740 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 5: people expected? 741 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 14: I think in the initial phase, people took the rhetoric seriously, right, 742 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,840 Speaker 14: I mean, you had first since later you had President 743 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 14: Trump and others vance talk about how they wanted to 744 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:34,399 Speaker 14: do a lot. 745 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,680 Speaker 13: Of enforcement, but there hasn't been a lot of enforcement. 746 00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 14: Into the degree there has been, it's been kind of 747 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 14: odd with certain merger settlements being a little unusual, very political, 748 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,120 Speaker 14: outside of the realm of what's normally done in antitrust. So, 749 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,000 Speaker 14: you know, I don't know whether that'll lead to a 750 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 14: merger wave or not, but certainly it doesn't seem like 751 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,239 Speaker 14: the agencies are going to be as active as they 752 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 14: were under President Biden. 753 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,279 Speaker 2: A lot of this administration's policies have to do with 754 00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:01,800 Speaker 2: bolstering domestic manufacturing, protecting US companies. In President Trump's post 755 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 2: when it came to the meatpackers, he wrote about cracking 756 00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,600 Speaker 2: down on majority foreign owned companies that are driving up prices. 757 00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 2: According to him, in your experience, how much is this 758 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 2: about combating international companies versus domestically owned ones. 759 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 13: It's a good question, and I think it's very market specific. 760 00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,919 Speaker 14: You know, the meatpackers import a lot of meat from 761 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 14: abroad countries like Canada, countries for their field like Nigeria, Brazil, 762 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,839 Speaker 14: and what I think a lot of the ranchers one 763 00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 14: is country of origin labeling. You know, we're in a 764 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,880 Speaker 14: Maha moment right People want to know what they're eating 765 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,400 Speaker 14: and where it came from. And American ranchers feel, I 766 00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,640 Speaker 14: think rightly that if people knew it was American beef. 767 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,880 Speaker 14: They might even pay more for it. That would empower 768 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,799 Speaker 14: them to have a more profitable business and fight back 769 00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:44,560 Speaker 14: against the consolidation of the packers. 770 00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,200 Speaker 13: So I think there's some stuff that they can do 771 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:46,440 Speaker 13: on this. 772 00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 5: Well, Doug, we should mention the fact that it may 773 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,640 Speaker 5: Wood Strategies. This is day one, right, you're just getting 774 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:53,200 Speaker 5: your new firm off the ground, that's right. 775 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 8: Day one. 776 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 14: I'm looking forward to working with clients looking across regulatory 777 00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:56,920 Speaker 14: and political. 778 00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,560 Speaker 5: Well, it's interesting to have you on the other side 779 00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:00,200 Speaker 5: of the last year, so thank you for coming. It's 780 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:01,839 Speaker 5: great to be here to talk to us in life 781 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:02,879 Speaker 5: after the administration. 782 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 4: I guess the story here indeed, Doug, thank you so much. 783 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,759 Speaker 5: Maywood Strategy is former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lena Kahan. 784 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 5: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington alongside Tyler Kendall, and we've 785 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,479 Speaker 5: got a whole other round here. Tyler, we likely will 786 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,319 Speaker 5: know more by five PM when we join you for 787 00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:19,879 Speaker 5: the late edition of Balance of Power. 788 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:21,960 Speaker 4: Whether we're going to see a Senate vote this evening. 789 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,880 Speaker 5: It is entirely likely that we will, which will then 790 00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 5: start the clock on a House vote they'll have thirty 791 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,319 Speaker 5: six hours to get everybody back in town. 792 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,120 Speaker 2: Right exactly, and keep in mind how Speaker Mike Johnson 793 00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,200 Speaker 2: still has his work cut out for him, right and 794 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 2: only our understanding is probably lose two Republicans and he 795 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:37,200 Speaker 2: doesn't have them all. 796 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:38,000 Speaker 4: That's true. 797 00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 5: We're still counting votes here even after what took place 798 00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:41,400 Speaker 5: last evening in the Senate. 799 00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 800 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 5: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 801 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 802 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,439 Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time 803 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,640 Speaker 5: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com