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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: daybaq At podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the twenty ninth of February

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Speaker 1: in London. I'm Caroline Hepki.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, The US Supreme

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Speaker 2: Court agrees to rule on Donald Trump's bid for immunity.

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Speaker 1: Reports say the SEC is investigating where the Open AI

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Speaker 1: misled investors.

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Speaker 2: Plus how would you do as Chancellor? Bloomberg's new online

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Speaker 2: budget game lets you make the tax and spending decisions.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: The US Supreme Court has agreed to rule on Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's bid for immunity from criminal prosecution over interference in

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election. The decision raises the prospect that

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Speaker 2: any trial of the former president could face a long delay,

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Speaker 2: potentially until after the November election. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has

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Speaker 2: the story.

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Speaker 3: This case will involve the potential immunity from criminal prosecution

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Speaker 3: and will be historic. It will determine whether Trump will

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Speaker 3: stand trial for the twenty twenty election interference charges. The

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Speaker 3: ruling also puts on hold the Washington d C. Election

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Speaker 3: interference trial, which was due to start next week. Trump

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Speaker 3: has been pushing to put off any trials until after

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Speaker 3: the election. The court says it we'll hear arguments the

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Speaker 3: week of April twenty second, when the court will rule.

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Speaker 3: As a question, though it usually hands down its decisions

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Speaker 3: at the end of its term in late June, but

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Speaker 3: it could expedite things. Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Now More US Politics. The veteran politician Mitch mccollinell is

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Speaker 1: stepping down after leading Senate Republicans for more than seventeen years.

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Speaker 1: The decision sets up a fifth succession battle that will

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Speaker 1: be driven by fealty to the party's presidential front runner,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. McConnell and Trump have long had a difficult relationship,

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Speaker 1: but the animosity grew after McConnell blamed the former president

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Speaker 1: for the January sixth insurrection. Republican Tennessee Senator Bill Haggerty

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Speaker 1: shared his thoughts on McConnell's time in office with Bloomberg Leader.

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Speaker 4: McConnell's had a great, long career here in the United

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Speaker 4: States Senate, the longest serving leader, as you've mentioned, and

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Speaker 4: he's got a lot to point to if you think

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Speaker 4: about his success during the Trump administration, seating three Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court justices as impact in the federal judiciary will be

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Speaker 4: long standing and very positive for the nation. And he's

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Speaker 4: come to the decision that the time has come to change.

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Speaker 4: I appreciate that, appreciate his leadership, and we will sort

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Speaker 4: through the leadership of our conference here in short order.

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Speaker 1: And you can hear that full interview with Senator Bill

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Speaker 1: Haggerty on Bloomberg's Balance of Power podcast. McConnell, who is

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Speaker 1: up for reelection in twenty twenty six, says that he

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Speaker 1: does not intend to retire from the Senate at the

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Speaker 1: end of the year.

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Speaker 2: Well, Congressional leaders, meanwhile, I have reached the last minute

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Speaker 2: deal to avoid a US government shutdown, setting up a

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Speaker 2: clash with Republican hardliners. Lawmakers agreed to fund the government

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Speaker 2: until later in March to give them time to negotiate.

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Speaker 2: Congress and Ralph Norman sits in the hard right Freedom Caucus.

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Speaker 2: He condemned the deal on Bloomberg's Balance of Power program.

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Speaker 5: Well, we haven't seen the text of the bills yet.

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Speaker 5: The minibuses are an insult to the American people. We've

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Speaker 5: just gotten back from over a week's out of session

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Speaker 5: out of Washington, d C. American people deserve better than this.

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Speaker 5: You wouldn't run a peanuts stand over. How the Congress

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Speaker 5: is trying to do the national budget.

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Speaker 2: The South Carolina to have a shut down with many

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Speaker 2: investors assuming Congress would once again reach a last minute deal.

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Speaker 1: Now to other news, these Securities and Exchange Commission is

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Speaker 1: reportedly investigating whether open ai investors were misled. The Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal says that the US regulator is studying internal

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Speaker 1: communications by CEO Sam Altman in relation to the board's

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Speaker 1: decision to oust him from the post back in November.

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Speaker 1: At the time, would say that Altman hadn't been consistently

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Speaker 1: candid in his communications, but a few days later open

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Speaker 1: Ai announced that it had reached an agreement for him

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Speaker 1: to return as CEO alongside an overhauled board.

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Speaker 2: Three Federal Reserve officials say the eight path depends on

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Speaker 2: incoming economic data. It comes as bond traders are fully

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Speaker 2: unwound their bets on the Fed, lowering rates by more

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Speaker 2: than seventy five basis points this year. Boston Fed presidencies

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Speaker 2: and Collins says don't expect a specific fixed schedule.

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Speaker 6: As policymakers carefully assess the evolving data and outlook. I

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Speaker 6: do want to see more evidence of that sustained trajectory,

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Speaker 6: and consistent with projections from FOMC participants, I do believe

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Speaker 6: it'll be appropriate to begin using policy later this year,

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Speaker 6: and when that happens, a methodical, forward looking approach to

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Speaker 6: gradually reducing rates should provide the necessary flexibility.

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Speaker 2: Collins was joined by the New York Fed's John Williams

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Speaker 2: and Atlanta's Raphael Bastik and expressing fears that this economic

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Speaker 2: cycle is different. Futures markets have priced in a probable

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Speaker 2: rate cut in June, with almost no chance of a

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Speaker 2: reduction next month.

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Speaker 1: Now to the UK, Jeremy Hunt has looked into scrapping

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Speaker 1: Britain's non dom tax status in the coming budget. The

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Speaker 1: Chancellor is wargaming ways to find cash to fund his

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Speaker 1: pre election tax cuts. Bloomberg's James Wilcock Casmore.

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg has learned the Chancellor is weighing scrapping a scheme

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Speaker 7: that let people avoid paying tax on their overseas earnings.

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Speaker 7: Getting rid of non dom status would help raise money

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Speaker 7: for what he hopes are election winning tax cuts. There's

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Speaker 7: only one issue. Labor have been campaigning on it for years.

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Speaker 8: He won't follow Labour's plan to scrap non dom status. Instead,

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Speaker 8: we've gone NHS staffing crisis, two week to take on

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Speaker 8: his party, two week to take on vested interest.

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Speaker 7: Kisstarma there, speaking in Rischie Sunac's first month of government,

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Speaker 7: Hunt himself said he was worried that removing the status

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Speaker 7: would drive non doms away from Britain. Back then, has

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Speaker 7: his tight fiscal situation changed his mind? In London James

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Speaker 7: Wilcock Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: And the gender pay gap has widened in the UK.

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Speaker 2: According to new figures from PwC, men now earn fourteen

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Speaker 2: and a half percent more than women, a slight increase

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Speaker 2: from last year. On average, women earned ninety pence for

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Speaker 2: every pound earned by a man of a similar professional background,

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Speaker 2: according to the Women in Work Index. That means the

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Speaker 2: UK has slipped from thirteen to seventeenth place in global

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Speaker 2: equality pay rankings, the largest annual fall of any of

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Speaker 2: the thirty three OECD countries measured. The gender pay gap

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Speaker 2: also worsens, with age women between forty six and sixty

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Speaker 2: five experience more than twice the hit of women under

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Speaker 2: thirty as a consequence of the motherhood penalty. In a moment,

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Speaker 2: we'll get more on those latest US political stories and

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Speaker 2: how it could affect the presidential election later this year,

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Speaker 2: plus Bloomberg's new budget game in the UK, Could you

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Speaker 2: you crash the economy? We'll find out in a couple

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Speaker 2: of minutes, Caroline. But another story that caught her this

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Speaker 2: morning about Rolex sales topping ten billion dollars for the

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Speaker 2: first time, according to a report from Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Morgan Salley, because of course Rolex doesn't disclose its

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Speaker 1: individual annual sales, but yes, they managed to sell one

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Speaker 1: point two four million watches in twenty twenty three. And

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Speaker 1: when you look at the lovely bar shot in the

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Speaker 1: story on the terminal, it just shows you how much

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Speaker 1: Rolex watches sort of trump all the others. They are

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Speaker 1: by far the kind of biggest luxury name in the

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Speaker 1: watch the watch industry.

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Speaker 2: From Sacay Times, the sales of Cartier estimated so in

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Speaker 2: Swiss Franks ten point one billion for Rolex, three point

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Speaker 2: one billion for Cartier, and Omega Odmar speak and the

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Speaker 2: other's pa rather fall lower down the list as well,

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Speaker 2: so that they were dominating the market by so much.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, at the other end of the scale,

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Speaker 1: do you remember the moon swatch two million of the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty fee. That's more my budget.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Well, let's turn to the latest US political news

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Speaker 2: Now and that Supreme Court decision to hear arguments on

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's immunity from prosecution over interference the twenty twenty election.

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Speaker 2: Our senior editor Bill Ferries joins US Now for more

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Speaker 2: on this story. Bill, the Supreme Court is going to

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Speaker 2: hear this case, but later done. The Special Council had

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Speaker 2: hoped what does this mean then for Donald Trump's election prospects?

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Speaker 9: Right?

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Speaker 10: The Special Council had been hoping for a March hearing

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Speaker 10: and a decision within a matter of weeks after that

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Speaker 10: so they could get the case going. With the Supreme

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Speaker 10: Court not taking it up till late April, it's really

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Speaker 10: not clear how quickly they will rule. They would often

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Speaker 10: put out their rulings in June. That just starts pushing

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Speaker 10: the calendar awfully close to the November election. Donald Trump,

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Speaker 10: of course, has argued that any decision on this case

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Speaker 10: should take place after the election, and if he just

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Speaker 10: happens to win the November vote. By January of next year,

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Speaker 10: he would actually be in position to have federal prosecutors

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Speaker 10: just drop the case. So it's very interesting timing. We

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Speaker 10: still need to see how this plays out. The Supreme

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Speaker 10: Court could certainly decide to issue their ruling more quickly.

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Speaker 10: It's not the only Trump case they have at this point,

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Speaker 10: of course. They're also They've already had a hearing on

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Speaker 10: whether Donald Trump can be removed from the ballot in

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Speaker 10: the Arizona Republican primary. That's something decision could come out

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Speaker 10: on that within weeks as well. So two cases for

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Speaker 10: the former president before the Supreme Court at this point.

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Speaker 10: There could actually be more by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: On a state by state basis. Donald Trump has also

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Speaker 1: been taken off the ballot in Illinois. How does that

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Speaker 1: add to the legal challenges?

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Speaker 10: Well, you're right, it's the third state so far where

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Speaker 10: these lawsuits have been brought. Who is ruled, which is

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Speaker 10: ruled that Donald Trump needs to be removed from the ballot.

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Speaker 10: The reality is that I think that case we mentioned

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Speaker 10: where the Supreme Court had a hearing on Arizona's decision

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Speaker 10: to do the same thing. The ruling that the Supreme

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Speaker 10: Court puts out in that case will likely cover Illinois,

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Speaker 10: it will likely cover Maine. Those are the two other

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Speaker 10: states that have now gone in this direction. The other

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Speaker 10: kind of strange reality of US politics is that Donald

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Speaker 10: Trump could still become the Republican nominee even if his

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Speaker 10: name never appears on the ballots of those three states.

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Speaker 10: We have Super Tuesday next week, March fifth. He is

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Speaker 10: expected to do quite well there. He could secure or

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Speaker 10: come very close to securing the nomination in one day

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Speaker 10: next week. So at another level, these rulings may not

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Speaker 10: be the deciding factor, but there's certainly interest on his

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Speaker 10: side and making sure there's no precedent of kicking people

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Speaker 10: off primary ballots.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so that's the presidential race. A different political race

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Speaker 2: beginning in Washington now. Mitch McConnell has announce t stepping

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Speaker 2: down as Reblica leader in the Senate at the next election.

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Speaker 2: Talks who's in line to replace him.

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Speaker 10: Well, right now, we know three people named John who

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Speaker 10: have all said that they're interested in going for that

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Speaker 10: top job, Senators John Barrosso, John Thune, and John Cornyn.

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Speaker 10: There will likely be other people who put feelers out

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Speaker 10: or announced formally that they're interested in becoming the Senate

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Speaker 10: Majority leader or Senate the Republican leader. But the big

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Speaker 10: shift here is that Senator McConnell had been had had

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Speaker 10: very testy relationship with Trump and certain issues. He had

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Speaker 10: been seen as maybe one of the highest profile opponents

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Speaker 10: of Trump in key areas. He will be gone, and

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Speaker 10: the leadership that's coming up behind him is almost entirely

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Speaker 10: supportive of Donald Trump. So far, the people we know

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Speaker 10: who are likely to run have all endorsed him. And

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Speaker 10: then you throw that. You look over on the House side,

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Speaker 10: you have the new House Speaker, Mike Johnson. He endorsed

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Speaker 10: Donald Trump really within hours of becoming the speak So

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Speaker 10: it shows the grip I think that the former president has.

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Speaker 10: He always had this core base of supporters out in

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Speaker 10: the country. He now has almost the entire leadership in

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Speaker 10: Washington on the Republican side as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, So that's Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky

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Speaker 1: at eighty two. In terms of other news, O, more generally,

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Speaker 1: and this is perhaps a bit more positive, a fresh

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Speaker 1: government shutdown's actually been averted.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, that's right. They've lawmakers, bipartisan group met earlier this

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Speaker 10: week with Joe Biden. They've decided to a deadline that

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Speaker 10: really had been Friday at midnight got pushed back a week.

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Speaker 10: A second deadline that had been a setup for next

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Speaker 10: week got pushed back another week as well. The lawmakers

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Speaker 10: seem to have some confidence that they can start getting

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Speaker 10: these spending bills passed. They face a really hard deadline

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Speaker 10: in late April when if they don't pass a budget,

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Speaker 10: mandatory cuts start to come in that neither party is

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Speaker 10: really interested. That would include cuts to the defense, the

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Speaker 10: Pentagon budget, the State Department budget, other key areas. So

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Speaker 10: it's a sign of progress. I feel like we've had this,

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Speaker 10: We've been here before. I wouldn't be surprised if we

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Speaker 10: end up in a situation where we're having another another

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Speaker 10: effort to kind of kick the can down the road

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Speaker 10: a few weeks before they get resolution on this.

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Speaker 2: Okay, plenty to monitor in US politics today, Bill Fairies,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for taking us through all of

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Speaker 2: those stories. That's our senior editor, Bill Ferries.

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Speaker 1: There well now here in the UK, the Chancellor Jeremy

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Speaker 1: Hunt will deliver his budget next week, a crunch moment

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Speaker 1: for the Conservative Party as they seek a poll boost

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Speaker 1: ahead of a general election expected later this year. But

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Speaker 1: what would you do if you were in his shoes? Well,

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Speaker 1: you can try your hand by playing Bloomberg's new budget game,

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Speaker 1: which is now live on bloomberg dot com. Your aim

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Speaker 1: is to win over voters with your tax and spending choices,

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Speaker 1: but of course without crashing the markets. Joining us now

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Speaker 1: to discuss this under the wider points are UK Government,

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Speaker 1: reported Joe Mays, who came up with the game. How

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Speaker 1: does the game work?

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Speaker 9: Well, as you say, Caroline, you have to respect that

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Speaker 9: constraint you have as chancellor, which is you have limited

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Speaker 9: funds before a budget and you have to spend your

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Speaker 9: funds wisely. You have choices around income tax, natural insurance,

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Speaker 9: all the big things that Jeremy Hunt has to decide.

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Speaker 9: And then once you've made your choices, you will get

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Speaker 9: a result. Have you crashed the markets or have you

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Speaker 9: indeed satisfied your nps and voses. It's a tricky game,

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Speaker 9: I must say. When making it, I realized how many

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Speaker 9: paths do end in a tricky situation for the chancellor.

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Speaker 9: So yeah, it's a tough one.

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Speaker 2: It's like a choose your own adventure, but with quite

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Speaker 2: serious consequences. Jo, what was the thinking behind then coming

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Speaker 2: up with this way of explaining the dilemmas facing the chancellor.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think that a budget is quite hard to

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Speaker 9: explain in terms of the constraints of chancellor faces and

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Speaker 9: trying to understand how much money you really have and

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Speaker 9: how much money the different options cost. And having it

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Speaker 9: in that game format, we felt really kind of brought

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Speaker 9: it to life and made it real for people and

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Speaker 9: really showed you the pressure you face from having to

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Speaker 9: make those choices in a way that kind of a

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Speaker 9: written article probably cannot do. So that's why we thought

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Speaker 9: we'd great to have in this way.

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Speaker 1: I love it is the gamification of everything. Apparently two

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Speaker 1: of our producers have already.

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Speaker 3: Crashed and failed.

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Speaker 2: I was very proud of myself because I had a

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Speaker 2: go yesterday and actually did manage to balance it out.

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Speaker 2: But I mean the problem is is that you well,

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Speaker 2: I mean clear whether or not win election on the

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Speaker 2: back of it is a whole different debate. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is of course all leading up to the budget

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Speaker 2: on March the sixth. What do we know? And actually

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Speaker 2: you've been reporting this morning as well about one of

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Speaker 2: the measures that the Chancellor is considering, and this is

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Speaker 2: around non tax status, something that originally was a labor

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Speaker 2: idea to scrap the the this special status for people

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Speaker 2: who have income coming from outside the UK.

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Speaker 9: Yes, I mean the big picture is Joe Hunt simply

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Speaker 9: doesn't have as much money as he would like to

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Speaker 9: do giveaways that would help the Conservative Party going into

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Speaker 9: the election, and they're always looking at measures such as

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Speaker 9: scrappm at London tax status which could raise some money.

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Speaker 9: We'll have to see what he does with his final choices.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again

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Speaker 2: tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start

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Speaker 2: your day right here on Bloomberg day Break Europe,