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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Monday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolz. You can follow me on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: talc Match. We're here every morning wherever you get your

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Speaker 1: audio podcasts and wherever you get your video, well, YouTube,

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Speaker 1: I guess is where you get the video for this

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Speaker 1: podcast always being brought to by BETMGM. We get the

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Speaker 1: ten buck offer to win one hundred and fifty dollars

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Speaker 1: code Juice one fifty at betmgym or betmgm dot com.

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Speaker 1: All right, so let me run through Sunday because it

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Speaker 1: was kind of it was full. It was a full day,

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Speaker 1: and it was very It was down a little, not

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Speaker 1: a lot, just a little, okay, So on the pod

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Speaker 1: we went two and two for the podcast play, So

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Speaker 1: if you just played the podcast plays, it was two

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Speaker 1: and two. So down the juice. Not great, but down

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Speaker 1: the juice down a little. We added a lot throughout

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Speaker 1: the day, so the prop bets wind up going four

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Speaker 1: and two, including two and zero on Sunday Night football.

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Speaker 1: But the Braves lost. We rode that because I think

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Speaker 1: the Braves might lose the whole World Series now. If

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Speaker 1: they weren't gonna win it last night, I thought they

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Speaker 1: were gonna they might lose the whole darn thing now,

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Speaker 1: So not good for Atlanta. I think the over next

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Speaker 1: in Game six probably a pretty good bet. I probably

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Speaker 1: the only bet'll make on Game six is probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be the over. Can think offenses are going to come

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Speaker 1: to life in Houston. But going back to the American League,

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Speaker 1: going back to the dh uh oh, it's just like

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Speaker 1: big three to one, right, three up, three to one.

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Speaker 1: Never seen Atlanta blow a three to one lead before.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just kind of, you know, twenty eight

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Speaker 1: three all over again. Right here we go with the

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Speaker 1: Falcons and everything else with Atlanta, you know, blowing leads. Yikes.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, not good for it to h and one

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Speaker 1: on baseball, and then you know, and then the long

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Speaker 1: teaser missed. So here's the funny thing. I'm six and

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Speaker 1: two on the Wong teaser this season in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Do you know the team that has cost me both

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Speaker 1: Wong teasers that we've lost this year? The Lions. And

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Speaker 1: I was gonna put the Patriots in there instead of

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Speaker 1: putting on the Lions, and I just decided that, well,

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to double up and be doublely wrong.

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Speaker 1: I already had the Patriots for a full unit, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, man, I'm running without the Patriots. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lose two units, and like, I don't like doing

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Speaker 1: that because it's kind of a double bet. So I

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Speaker 1: was annoyed. Lions get the throttle. That was the worst

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Speaker 1: bet of the day. Lions plus nine Panthers came through.

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Speaker 1: They covered their leg but not the other leg. So

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Speaker 1: h that was a two and three mark on full units,

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Speaker 1: four and two mark on prop bets all when won

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Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. All right, so coming up here tonight,

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Speaker 1: we have a very tricky Monday night football game with

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Speaker 1: Kansas City hosting the New York Giants, who have a

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Speaker 1: ton of questions on their offense for injuries, including Galladay

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Speaker 1: and Tony who may play their question but well, I

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Speaker 1: guess it. Galladay's out, right, Yeah, sorry, Galladay's out. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Galladay is out. Saquon Barkley is out, but Kadarius Tony

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Speaker 1: and Sterling Shepherd might play. So we've got two wide

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Speaker 1: outs that might play. So Kansas City, when you look

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Speaker 1: at the Chiefs right now, I went back and did

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Speaker 1: some of these some numbers. It's starking. It's stark to

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Speaker 1: look at this for Kansas City, all right. So here

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Speaker 1: we are with the Chiefs. Case is not covered as

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Speaker 1: a home favorite for the last six games in the

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Speaker 1: regular season. The total was three and three to the

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Speaker 1: over in those six games. The last time there was

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Speaker 1: a cover well and sorry sorry, so yeah, so last

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Speaker 1: time they covered a six game losing streak to the

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Speaker 1: number for Casey at home in the regular season. The

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Speaker 1: last three times they've been double digit, double digit favorites

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Speaker 1: at home, they have not covered the spread. The last

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Speaker 1: time Casey covered a double digit spread at home was

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Speaker 1: back on the first of November twenty twenty, when they

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Speaker 1: covered a nineteen and a half point line. So does

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Speaker 1: that mean now, literally, you know, a year to the

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Speaker 1: day they come in and they cover. Very possible. But

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Speaker 1: I don't trust the Giants offensively, I don't trust them defensively,

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Speaker 1: and I sure as hell don't trust that case Chief defense.

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Speaker 1: All right. I don't know what to make of this,

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Speaker 1: but the Chiefs, off of all loss are normally pretty

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Speaker 1: good against the number. They normally play really well after

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Speaker 1: they lose. But Patrick Mahomes has had some really bad luck,

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Speaker 1: some bad turnover luck here. When you look at some

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Speaker 1: of these numbers. Offensively for Kansas City, I mean, case

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Speaker 1: is only scoring twenty six point nine points per game.

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Speaker 1: That is, like what, it's a crazy number. But the

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Speaker 1: Giants are giving up twenty five point seven points per game.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are still averaging six point five sorry, six point

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Speaker 1: two yards per play, that's fit best in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Three point four touchdowns per game, that's fifth best in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and the Giants are giving up three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: on average per game. That's nineteenth best in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: You can throw on these guys six point nine yards

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Speaker 1: per pass play. They do not get after the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: They don't pressure the quarterback really at all. Pass rushes

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Speaker 1: is just not good. I mean, it's just it's just

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Speaker 1: not good. Although the Chiefs right now are the worst

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Speaker 1: in terms of sacking the quarterback, I mean they are awful.

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Speaker 1: They are thirty second sack percentage right now, sixteenth For

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Speaker 1: the Giants. They have a little bit better a pass rush,

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Speaker 1: but not great. And Casey's given up four point five sacks,

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Speaker 1: four point five percent on sacks per snap, which is

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Speaker 1: tenth best in the NFL, which is middle of the pack.

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Speaker 1: Not great. Okay, So here's Mahomes having an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: do some big things. Here is Mahomes having an opportunity

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Speaker 1: in primetime. I don't like the ten. I could see

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Speaker 1: this game being a shootout. I could see this game

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Speaker 1: being a blowout. In fact, I lean towards the blowout.

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Speaker 1: But I just don't know what I do feel comfortable with.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I feel comfortable with is the team

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Speaker 1: total for Kansas City. All Right. I know this is

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Speaker 1: a little bit rich, and it's funny because Dan Harris

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Speaker 1: and I were talking about this during the live stream

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Speaker 1: and he brought up that he had a guest who

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Speaker 1: thinks that there's some real value on team totals in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and I kind of poop pooed it, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, you know, I don't really agree that

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Speaker 1: there's great inefficiencies in the market with team totals. Personally,

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Speaker 1: I think it's you know, in college, I think that's

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Speaker 1: a much wiser move. But you know, here in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Here's my concern about Kansas City I don't know what

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Speaker 1: to do about the about the offense for the for

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Speaker 1: the Giants. So the Giants offense with Danny Dimes nineteen

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Speaker 1: point nine points per game, twenty fifth best, five point

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Speaker 1: five yards per play twenty third best. But if they

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Speaker 1: don't have Tony and they don't have Shepherd, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be in trouble. Right, So the play might be the

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Speaker 1: under because the Giants aren't gonna score with Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: But look at that Giant defense. So far this year,

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Speaker 1: they have given up twenty seven, thirty seventeen, twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: forty four, thirty eight, and three, only three points in

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Speaker 1: the last game. Kansas City, on the other hand, their

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Speaker 1: offense because they turn the ball over so much, they

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Speaker 1: move the football and they have not been capitalizing on

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Speaker 1: trips to the red zone. They scored three points in

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Speaker 1: their last game, but then thirty one against Washington, twenty

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Speaker 1: against the Bills, forty two against the Eagles, twenty four

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Speaker 1: against the Chargers, thirty five against the Ravens, and thirty

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Speaker 1: three against the Browns. Their team total is thirty one

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Speaker 1: in a half, Okay, thirty one and a half at

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Speaker 1: minus one zero five. I need five touchdowns and extra points,

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Speaker 1: and I need five touchdowns out of Kansas City here

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Speaker 1: to get this team total. I'm not playing with the total.

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Speaker 1: I'm not playing with the teaser. I'm not playing. I'm

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Speaker 1: doing one unit against one unit, and that's it. I'm

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Speaker 1: doing the Chiefs offense against that Giants defense, and that's it.

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Speaker 1: And I think the Chiefs can move the football, and

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Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs can score thirty five points here

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Speaker 1: in primetime at home against the Giants. My question is

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Speaker 1: that my concern would be, like it could be thirty

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Speaker 1: five twenty eight, Like that's possible. And you know, if

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Speaker 1: you go, Matt, why don't you just bet you know,

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Speaker 1: the over them? I think the overs in play. But

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Speaker 1: if you don't have Shepherd and you don't have Tony

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Speaker 1: and then Danny Dimes just throwing interceptions, he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: Sakuon Barkley, I mean, you know, did they just rise

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Speaker 1: up and play really well last week and then they

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Speaker 1: don't come back and play that all that well. I

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Speaker 1: just want to worry about one thing, and I want

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Speaker 1: to worry about Patrick Mahomes trying to remind everybody that

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Speaker 1: Casey's offense is still really, really good and they can

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Speaker 1: move the football and score. I'm going one unit over

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Speaker 1: thirty one and a half points Kansas City team total

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football. And that's it. That's all. I'm playing

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Speaker 1: one unit on Kansas City to just score and not

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Speaker 1: worry about props, do not worry about anything else. Just

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Speaker 1: one unit score thirty two points here against the Giants.

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Speaker 1: One unit team total Kansas City thirty one and a

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Speaker 1: half points over. We go for the team total for

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Speaker 1: one unit. All right, two NBA played, sorry, one NBA

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Speaker 1: play and one NHL play. I gotta start to kind

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Speaker 1: of get into this because football, I mean, we're already

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Speaker 1: into going into week nine, and like football is gonna

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Speaker 1: be here for a little while, but like there's days

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Speaker 1: where we're gonna just be no baseball and that college

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Speaker 1: basketball is starting. But like we're gonna have to get

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Speaker 1: rolling here. We're gonna have to jump in here. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the Atlanta Hawks hosting the Washington Wizards.

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Speaker 1: Atlanta has only covered two times this year. At home

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Speaker 1: against Dallas they were two and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: they won by twenty six, and home against Detroit eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, they won by eighteen but

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Speaker 1: Detroit and Dallas stink the road games at Cleveland, at

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Speaker 1: New Orleans, at Washington, at Philadelphia. For the Atlanta Hawks,

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Speaker 1: I think they've read their clippings a little bit too much.

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Speaker 1: They've lost three straight games against the press against the spread.

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Speaker 1: They've lost two games straight overall. New Orleans minus five.

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Speaker 1: They won by three Washington. They were a four point favorite.

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Speaker 1: They won by eleven. Against Philly. In their last game,

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Speaker 1: they were three and a half point dogs. They lost

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Speaker 1: by twenty eight points. I don't like what's going on

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Speaker 1: right now for the Atlanta Hawks. It's concerning Washington's averaging

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Speaker 1: almost one hundred and thirteen points per game. They're shooting

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Speaker 1: forty four percent, and defensively they've been pretty good, allowing

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Speaker 1: under one hundred and nine points. Bradley Beal's averaging over

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Speaker 1: twenty four points per game. And you start looking at

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Speaker 1: some of these metrics and some of these you know,

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Speaker 1: Washington's five and one against the spread. They are they've

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Speaker 1: covered the last three games, with all of which they've won.

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Speaker 1: They beat Boston as four point dogs one by nine.

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Speaker 1: Beat these same Hawks back on the twenty eighth of October,

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Speaker 1: a couple days ago as four point dogs, they won

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Speaker 1: by eleven, and then back to Boston at home where

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Speaker 1: they were laying two and they won by three. This

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Speaker 1: Washington Wizards team right now is legit. And I think this,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the only reason why I can think of

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta as a plus five and a half home

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Speaker 1: favorite here or mis five and a half home favorite

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Speaker 1: here is because of what they did in their two

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Speaker 1: previous home games. But this feels too heavy for me

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Speaker 1: early in the year. I think Atlanta's got something pretty

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Speaker 1: wrong with them right now. And these two teams just played.

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Speaker 1: Wizards have played well on the road, and they've played

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Speaker 1: well away from home as well. On the road. You mean,

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Speaker 1: look at these numbers so far. They are two and

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Speaker 1: one on the road against the spread, and they've won

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Speaker 1: two out of the three games they've been on the road.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think they're gonna have a much I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think this is a close game that comes down

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Speaker 1: to the wire. Maybe Atlanta wins by three, but I

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Speaker 1: think there's something up with the Hawks right now. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna play the props here in this game. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna wait. John Collins did not play well in the

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Speaker 1: last game against Philadelphia, when you lose by eleven to

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Speaker 1: these Washington Wizards and then you lose by twenty eight

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Speaker 1: to Philadelphia, you come back home and you say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: maybe chain of scenery, Atlanta goes crazy, Trey Young goes off.

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Speaker 1: I just feel like a lot of these teams that

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Speaker 1: used to get to the foul line a lot like

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Speaker 1: Trey Young, and like we're seen with the nets, it's

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Speaker 1: been tough for them to kind of adjust the new

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Speaker 1: referees and the new calls and how things are going.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the points here. I'm gonna take five

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Speaker 1: and a half for the Washington Wizards and to keep

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Speaker 1: this five and one against the against a spread streak

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Speaker 1: rolling and maybe they win the game outright. I think

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Speaker 1: right now, early in the year, there's something up with

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Hawks, and they just they don't look right

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Speaker 1: right now early in the season. You know, this is

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Speaker 1: a team that's three and three straight up, two and

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Speaker 1: four against the spread, and they haven't covered in the

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Speaker 1: last three games. I think that extends to four here.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Washington the hotter basketball team for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit plus five and a half here for

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Speaker 1: the Washington Wizards, and then one NHL play, And if

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Speaker 1: you want to fade this, go right ahead, because I

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Speaker 1: am god awful in the NHL. I don't think you've

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Speaker 1: goting to pick right yet in the NHL. Here for

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Speaker 1: the daily juice. Okay, so it's been bad. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to fade a team that I liked going into the season.

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Speaker 1: And the team I like going into the season was

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Kraken. I thought they were going to be

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Speaker 1: not your typical team, not your typical expansion team, kind

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Speaker 1: of do what the Vegas gold Knights did, contend for

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Speaker 1: a playoff berth. But oh my goodness, this has been

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Speaker 1: a rocky and I mean rocky start for the Seattle Kraken.

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Speaker 1: They have played nine games, they are three five and one.

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Speaker 1: They lost three to one last night. They're on a

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Speaker 1: back to back here against the Edmonton Oilers, who are

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Speaker 1: six and one this season. Edmonton's three and one at home,

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Speaker 1: three and zero on the road. Here they have they

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Speaker 1: won their last game and I got even money on

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Speaker 1: the puck line here. I mean, Philip Grubauer has not

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Speaker 1: been good and it's been wild to watch on the road.

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Speaker 1: The Kraken are bad on the road, and you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe things change when they go back home, and they'll

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Speaker 1: they'll get better as they go. But right now on

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Speaker 1: the road they are well, they're three two and one.

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Speaker 1: They're bad at home. They're all and three at home. No, sorry,

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Speaker 1: so they're one three and one. That's right. They're one

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Speaker 1: three and one on the road, two and two at home.

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Speaker 1: Reading ring Vancouver's numbers, two and two at home, one

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Speaker 1: three and one on the road. And they just got

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Speaker 1: beat on the puck line last night and didn't look

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Speaker 1: great against the Rangers. They were at home, I guess

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Speaker 1: against the Rangers and they lost. Now they're on the

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Speaker 1: road to Edmonton here where the Oilers are three and

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Speaker 1: one at home, and I just I don't like what

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Speaker 1: I've seen out of this. I just they aren't scoring.

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Speaker 1: Their defense of their defense is being okay, But I

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Speaker 1: don't know this is a real Edmonton's been very very good.

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Speaker 1: You got one team that's rested and hot against a

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Speaker 1: team on a back to back who's not playing very well.

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Speaker 1: They're trying to figure themselves out right now. I got

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Speaker 1: even money here on Edmonton on the puck line. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay the puck line here, Oilers puck line even

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Speaker 1: money for a half a unit here. Okay, so we

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Speaker 1: got two units going here today. It's my first day

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Speaker 1: of my new job. I don't know what I'm doing,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, I don't know how busy I'm going

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Speaker 1: to be. This is why I'm not gonna do props

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Speaker 1: today because I could be like super busy or not

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Speaker 1: busy at all, you know how like new jobs day

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Speaker 1: one type stuff is. So I don't know. So that's

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Speaker 1: why I'm just gonna tell you. We're going team total

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Speaker 1: for one unit over thirty one and a half for

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Speaker 1: the KC Chiefs up against the New York Giants on

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Speaker 1: Monday night Football Wizards plus five and a half on

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Speaker 1: the road at the Atlanta Hawks for a half a unit,

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Speaker 1: oilers in the puck line at home, even money against

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Speaker 1: the Kraken for a half a unit. Mine's Matt paroltzs

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Speaker 1: following me on Twitter at sports doc Matt each In

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Speaker 1: the morning, it's the Deli Juice podcast right here in

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros dot Com. I was being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM