1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,439 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM. 5 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: We're here for a UFC betting preview Shonzarella Billy Wards 6 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: standing by. 7 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 3: I'm Brendan Glass. 8 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: Sheem You've got a big, big boxing matchup this weekend, 9 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: so we figured before we get to the UFC Vegas 10 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: ninety two card, some of the prelimbs and the main card, 11 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: we are welcoming in a special guest for phoning a friend, 12 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: Brian Vonseca. You've heard his work covering basketball at Action 13 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: also dabbles in boxing. 14 00:00:58,160 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 3: Brian, thanks for being here. 15 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 1: Tyson Fear and Alexander U six squaring off in a 16 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 1: mussy boxing match on Saturday, so we had to get 17 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: your special expert takes here on this particular matchup for 18 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: the people at home that might be tuning in to 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: this boxing matchup. 20 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: Where would you suggest to go from a betting standpoint? 21 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 4: Oh, we're doing predictions right off the bat? Is that 22 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 4: what we're doing? 23 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 3: How would you bet it? Is the question? 24 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: I mean, I've already played multiple bets on this card. 25 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 4: I have one with Tyson Fury winning by decision. That 26 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 4: was at one prominent sportsbook at plus two twenty earlier 27 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 4: this week, it's probably around the same sort of area 28 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 4: right now. I was a little surprised at that, but 29 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 4: then again, this is actually the rare, high profile fifty 30 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 4: to fifty boxing match, and sometimes you get really good 31 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 4: value on those because it's hard to pick a winner. 32 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:52,919 Speaker 4: This is one of those examples. So I have Tyson 33 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 4: Fury plus two twenty to win by decision. I have 34 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 4: over half a knockdown in this fight. I don't think 35 00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 4: there's going to be a knockout, but I do think 36 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 4: heavyweight boxing, yes there can be knocked down. Tyson Fury 37 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 4: in particular has been dropped seven times in his career, 38 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 4: seven including the Francis and Ganda one, four to Deontay Wilder, 39 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,399 Speaker 4: one to Steve Cunningham former cruiserweight champion, like Alexander U six, 40 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,119 Speaker 4: so that should be noted. And then I also sprinkled 41 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 4: on a draw at plus fourteen hundred, because when it's 42 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 4: this close, you kind of have to do that plus 43 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 4: fourteen hundred like a small may have been a third 44 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 4: of a unit, like it was a tiny play, but 45 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 4: still like plus fourteen hundred on a draw fifty to 46 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 4: fifty fight. Like, I think that's something you automatically have 47 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 4: to look at in this type of situation. 48 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: And do you have a prediction before we say goodbye 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,519 Speaker 1: to you? Yes, well, go ahead, here's here's the time 50 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: to shine. 51 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 4: I think Tyson Fury is gonna win this fight. Listen, 52 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 4: he's he's six foot nine, he has a seven foot 53 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 4: one reach. Essentially Alexander u six sixty three has reached 54 00:02:55,639 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: it's not quite seven foot one, probably six' five. ISH 55 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: i just think that If Alexander usik is gonna win this, 56 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 4: fight it's gonna be on. Volume he's A South. Paul he's. 57 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 4: Great he's honestly one of the powerful pound best fighters 58 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 4: in the, sport consensus number three After Terrence crawford And 59 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 4: nawia in a, way But Tyson fury looks like he cares. 60 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 4: Finally he hasn't cared about a fight in a. While 61 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 4: didn't care leading up To. Franciscano you could just visibly 62 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 4: tell didn't care really Against Derek. Gasaura why Woody Derek 63 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 4: Gasra he had like AN mma record who was like 64 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 4: thirty three and twelve going into that. Fight very exciting, 65 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 4: fighter But Tyson fury is just like miles and miles above. 66 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 4: Him derekkjasia was ranked number fourteen by THE wbc and 67 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 4: didn't make sense that he got that fight to begin. 68 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 4: With so, YEAH i just Think Tyson, fury when he 69 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 4: gives a, shit is the best heavyweight in the, world 70 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 4: and he looks like he's going to because if you 71 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: can measure of saying this before we got, on he's 72 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 4: a guy with love, handles visibly a lot of love. 73 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 4: Handles even though he's a heavyweight who's so big and 74 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 4: weighs into seventy something to sixty something depending on the. 75 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 4: Fight he moves like A weltz. Rate he has beautiful, 76 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 4: footwork like, beautiful beautiful, footwork defensively, sharp but he had 77 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 4: more love handles for The francis And ganda. Fight doesn't 78 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 4: look like he has that many, Now like he looks 79 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 4: like he did for some of The Deontay wilder, fights 80 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 4: where he looked imposing and like one of the best 81 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 4: heavyweights in the. World so it's just an easier pathway 82 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 4: to get to him winning this fight because he can 83 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 4: find the range, early he can Keep Alexander usik at 84 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 4: bay and sort of like actually Hurt Alexander ussik potentially 85 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 4: to the, body which is one of the raps on 86 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 4: him because he took a body shot From Danny dubois 87 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 4: that they counted as a low. Blow that's very controversial 88 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 4: from last. Year SO i Think Tyson fury is gonna 89 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 4: look to expose that as. 90 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: Well there's hope in the world for people that have 91 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: love handles thanks To Tyson. Fury so and there's hope 92 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: in the world That Brian vonseca stopped by OUR ufc 93 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: betting preview to dive into this boxing. 94 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 3: Match thank, you. Sir you can Find Brian fonseca on. 95 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: The Action network Website Action network app also On twitter 96 00:04:58,360 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 1: At Brian. 97 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 3: Vonseca m Y, Brian thanks for stopping. By appreciate it absolutely. 98 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 3: Anytime all, right we're kicking you out, now see you. 99 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 5: Later thanks. 100 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 3: Guys there's your boxing minute there With Brian. 101 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: Vonseca we dive into THE ufc card now With Sean 102 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:13,919 Speaker 1: zarello And Billy. 103 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 3: Ward i'll leave you guys a. 104 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: Second any reaction to that before we dive into THE 105 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: ufc main. 106 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 6: Card how could you not bet the draw on a 107 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 6: big boxing? Match that's the line fifty to. FIFTY i, 108 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 6: mean this is what we see in boxing. CONSTANTLY i 109 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,119 Speaker 6: guess you just have to figure out the percentage chance 110 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 6: that boxing wants these guys to fight to a trilogy 111 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 6: and fight multiple. Times but, Yeah i'll probably be Joining 112 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 6: brian and sprinkling a little bit on that draw at 113 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 6: fourteen to, one anything miss Toward, yeah you. 114 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 5: KNOW i was landing Towards usk a little, bit just 115 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 5: on the how much To Tyson fury? Care But brian convinced, 116 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 5: me SO i Think i'll probably take a little sprinkle 117 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 5: on the decision prop and THEN i do like the 118 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 5: draw angle as. Well, great very. 119 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: Good let's dive into the main event FOR Ufc vegas ninety, 120 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 1: Two Murphy, Barbosa murphy the, Favorite, barbosa the short, Dog. 121 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: Cazarrillo when you look at the, fight how do you 122 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: evaluate the? Line and then with that being in, mind 123 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: how would you want to bet this? 124 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 3: FIGHT i Think i'm going to live bet this. 125 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 6: One this is a pretty similar dynamic To barbosa's last 126 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 6: matchup Against Adike, yusuf which was the main event in The, 127 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 6: apex And barbosa got clipped. Early yusuf almost finished, him 128 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 6: but then didn't have the cardio to maintain that fighting 129 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 6: style across twenty five, minutes and ultimately once they got 130 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 6: into extended striking, Exchanges ed's improved that he was the 131 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 6: more technical and more well rounded. Fighters so curious to 132 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 6: see If murphy's able to hurt him early and as a, 133 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 6: RESULT i don't want to really have anything On barbosa, 134 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,280 Speaker 6: prefight but live after round one as the athleticism gap 135 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 6: starts to close between these two. FIGHTERS i absolutely want 136 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 6: to take some Of barbosa's, side and particularly after he's 137 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 6: out of his likeliest round where he's going to get 138 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 6: finished in round one. Two the one advantage That murphy 139 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 6: may have here is offensive. Wrestling we've Seen barbosa as 140 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 6: he gets later in HIS bantamwa, career just doesn't have 141 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 6: the physicality that he once, did And Bryce mitchell kept 142 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 6: him on bottom for significant. Stretches those takedowns seem to 143 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 6: come pretty, easy and he wasn't able to explode back 144 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 6: to his feet as much as we're typically accustomed. To you, 145 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 6: Know barbosa's good takedown defense throughout his career seventy five, 146 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 6: Percent BUT i do think there's the possibility of That 147 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 6: murphy as the, younger more athletic fighter can get those 148 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 6: takedowns and then potentially Keep edson on the. Ground that's 149 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 6: where his one advantage. Is but in terms of striking 150 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 6: fight over twenty five, minutes you know how often those 151 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 6: takedowns are going to come For. Murphy and then you 152 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 6: add on top of that fact That murphy's never been 153 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 6: in a twenty five minute. Fight he's never been past 154 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 6: the fifteen minute mark in his. Career barbosa has done 155 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 6: it five times or this will be his fifth, time 156 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 6: and he's coming off of a main event most. Recently 157 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 6: so the longer this fight plays, out the more of 158 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 6: a CHANCE i Think edson. HAS i Think murphy needs 159 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 6: to finish him, earlier land takedowns early in order to 160 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 6: cover his price. Tag Otherwise edson's going to be very live, 161 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 6: Here so anticipating that you may get the same price 162 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 6: or better On edson live after round and that's WHERE 163 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 6: i plan on entering Is? Edson why anytime after round 164 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 6: one doesn't have to be directly after round? One could 165 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 6: be one one headed into round. Three i'd be happy 166 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 6: to enter there, Too but why anytime after round one On? 167 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: Barbosa, billy you have similar feelings On, barbosa and you 168 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: even wrote it in Your Action. Network you have c 169 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: luck ratings available right now in the app also actionnetwork 170 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: dot com to keep an eye On, barbosa and that's 171 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: exactly what you're gonna. 172 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 5: Do, yeah and this is one WHERE i think if 173 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 5: it was about five months and eighteen days, AGO i 174 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 5: would probably blindly side with the younger fighter, here because you, 175 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 5: Know murphy's, undefeated younger up and. Coming we have seen 176 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 5: in this Post usada era quite the resurgence from some 177 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 5: of these older, guys especially even the last few. Cards you, 178 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 5: know we Saw Jose aldo look like a new. Man 179 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 5: Derek lewis looked. Great there's probably Particularly brazilian fighters traditionally 180 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 5: tend to benefit more from looser drug testing than fighters 181 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 5: from other. Places so that's part of my interest In. 182 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 5: Barbosa the other, is As sean pointed, Out murphy has 183 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 5: never been in a five round. FIGHT i checked even 184 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 5: his regional. Fights he has some titles and smaller, promotions 185 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 5: but they all seem to be three round fights, scheduled 186 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 5: and most of them he won by stoppage. Anyway so 187 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 5: kind of the adage if you don't know ATTRIBUTE x 188 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 5: about a, fighter it's probably the safer bet that it's 189 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 5: not a. Strength it might not be a huge, weakness 190 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 5: but we know how Good Edson barbosa is down the. 191 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 5: Stretch we saw it Against yusuf in his last. Fight 192 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,439 Speaker 5: look tremendous, there you, know in terms of the cardio 193 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,439 Speaker 5: and his ability to build throughout the. Fight so if 194 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 5: you are not watching this one, live AND i wouldn't 195 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 5: blame you because it's not a great, card there's boxing. 196 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 5: On it's a beautiful day throughout most of the. Country 197 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 5: if you're doing anything better with your, time the late 198 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 5: props on some books where you can bet you, know 199 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 5: rounds four or five or by decision or same game 200 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 5: parlays With edson in over one and a, half over 201 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 5: two and a. HALF i like that if you need 202 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 5: a pre. Fight but if you're a sickoh Like sean 203 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 5: AND i and are absolutely watching this, one then live 204 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 5: is definite way to. 205 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: GO i respect the. Honesty, jeez we're trying to keep people, Here. 206 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: BILLY i, mean he's still got a whole card to go. 207 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 5: Through i'm trying to get people to bet. It that 208 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 5: doesn't mean they have to watch. It you can just 209 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 5: wake Up sunday morning and see how it. Did you 210 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 5: know there's no rule that you have to. Flat this 211 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 5: one lies, okay fair. Enough from the featherweight to the. 212 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: Welterweight we dive Into Chaos williams taking on in this. 213 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: One Carlston harris taking a look at the latest. Line 214 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: harris at plus one Ten williams minus one thirty seanzillo 215 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: for the fight of the. 216 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 3: Night similar any live angles? Here is there a pre 217 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 3: fight side that is? Intriguing? 218 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 6: Now i'm Taking williams pre fight it about minus one. 219 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 6: Thirty he's my favorite bet on this. Card we'll give 220 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 6: out another bet later for best, bets but that is 221 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 6: more of a final. Bet Chaos williams would be my 222 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 6: best bet IF i had to pick one on this. 223 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 6: Card he's seven years. Younger he's in his physical. Prime 224 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 6: Carlston harris is thirty. Six he's far less durable Than Chaos. 225 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 6: Williams he does have the grappling upside in the, fight 226 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,239 Speaker 6: BUT i don't see him necessarily getting takedowns or controlling 227 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 6: position for significant. Stretches williams is pretty good takedown to. 228 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 6: Defense AS i, said he's very physically. Strong it is 229 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 6: good first layer takedown. Defense but even in his loss 230 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 6: To Michelle, Pereira herrera got him down twice only control 231 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 6: them for about a minute combined between those two, takedowns 232 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 6: so has proven that even when you do take him, 233 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,599 Speaker 6: down he pops up pretty. Quickly he's Very AS i, 234 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 6: Said i'm going to reiterate it a third, time but 235 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 6: he's very physically, strong and it's difficult to get him, 236 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 6: down and it's difficult to keep him, down control him 237 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 6: in the. Clinch whatever you want to do To Chaos, 238 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 6: williams that requires. Strength it is very difficult to keep 239 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 6: him in those. Positions and then in terms of the, 240 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 6: Striking harris can absolutely keep up in terms of, volume 241 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 6: But chaos is going to be landing the much more 242 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 6: damaging and powerful. Shots this is a guy WHO i 243 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 6: think has gone from almost overrated to underrated during HIS ufc. 244 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 6: Tenure came, in was getting those quick, knockouts seemed like 245 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 6: he might be a little bit, overrated and then got 246 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 6: extended out to decisions with guys Like Randy brown and 247 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 6: was very competitive even in his. Losses he has a 248 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 6: split loss To Michelle, perera a very competitive loss To Randy, 249 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 6: brown WHERE i believe he knocked round down in separate, 250 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 6: rounds so. Chaos williams a very dangerous, fighter has proven 251 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 6: that that power though does carry not only for three, 252 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 6: rounds but that he has the ability to put up 253 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 6: volume with it as. Well so if these two do, 254 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 6: EXTEND i Think williams is going to win on the damaging. 255 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 6: SHOTS i Think harris is a chance to potentially snatch 256 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 6: up a. Submission he is a very Nice anacotta, choke 257 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 6: but other than, THAT i do think he's largely going 258 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 6: to be losing this. FIGHT i don't really think he's 259 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 6: going to get the takedowns easily or be able to 260 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 6: maintain position even if they do, come so chaos on. 261 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 6: Damage i'm actually going to predict him, though by round 262 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 6: two knockout in this, fight and we're just going to 263 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 6: take his money. Line i'll probably use his knockout prop 264 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 6: though On Ron robin. 265 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 1: Tickets, billy another way you want to Play williams, Potentially, YEAH. 266 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 5: I really like him in the decision only market at 267 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 5: plus one, thirty super durable as champointnot never been finished 268 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 5: as a. Pro he's got split decision losses like never 269 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 5: been soundly beaten in a. Fight part of that is 270 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 5: the volume That sean. Mentioned he lands almost twice as 271 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 5: many significant strikes per minuted As. Harris also the bigger, 272 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 5: shots you, know just faster, hands more aggressive on the. 273 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 5: Feet that's going to play well to the judges if they're. 274 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 5: Needed and the other, part, Well harris has a grappling. 275 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 5: Edge if you look at his, submissions most of them 276 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 5: are either anaconda's dars'es or armed. Triangles and armed triangles 277 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 5: are kind of related because if you've got a guy 278 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 5: and you turn them from anaconda kind of turns into. 279 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 5: That all of those rely on your opponent, shooting or 280 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 5: your opponent sticking his head forward and trying to, grapple 281 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 5: and you countering that. Chaos william's not going to. Grapple 282 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 5: he has no interest in shooting. Here he has no 283 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 5: interest in trying to make this a ground. Fight so 284 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 5: that nulliflies a lot Of harris's grappling, game because his strength, 285 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 5: is as we saw Against Jeremiah, wells waiting for you to, 286 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 5: shoot in catching an, arm catching a, head waiting for 287 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 5: you to make a silly mistake that's not going to come. 288 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 5: UP i like chaos to finish, too you, KNOW i 289 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 5: probably throw half a you in on his knockout just 290 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 5: to hedge this a little. BIT i just like getting 291 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 5: the plus money on the decision only because if this 292 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 5: does go poorly for, him pretty much the only WAY 293 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 5: i See harris winning is a. Submission at some Point 294 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 5: he's not going to win, minutes so it removes some 295 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 5: of the risk and you get plus. Money but if 296 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 5: you want to make sure you have action on the, 297 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,679 Speaker 5: FIGHT i do like his knockout prop as. 298 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: Well The Action network podcast is presented BY. 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Older gambling problem 308 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: called one eight hundred. Gambler how about Underdogs. Zorillo you 309 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: guys have discussed that it's not the most attractive, card 310 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: but any price points that are. Attractive there aren't too many, 311 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: big big. 312 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 3: Numbers as far as dogs on this card this. 313 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 6: Week Taking Ariani carnelosi at plus one eighty, five this 314 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 6: line is steamed. Up she opened around plus one thirty, 315 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 6: five so we'll see if it ends up going closer 316 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 6: to plus two. Hundred but her opponent is an inch 317 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 6: tallar two inch rich. Advantage these fighters are the same. 318 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 6: Age cardilosi though very physically, strong she's incredible. ARMS i, 319 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 6: mean most of us would kill to have the physical 320 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 6: shape that her arms, are not even, Kidding and when 321 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 6: you factor in THE usata angle and the fact that 322 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 6: She's brazilian, like you can put two and two together 323 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 6: here and see That Ariani, cardilosi who's already physically, strong 324 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 6: already has good cardio may just ramp those skills up 325 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 6: to an even further. Degree now her big weakness is takedown. 326 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 6: Defense just defending takedowns at eight percent in HER ufc, 327 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 6: career got taken down eight times By Lucpeta, godenez but 328 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 6: she did get up each and every one of those, 329 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 6: times so she is very active in terms of trying 330 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 6: to scramble off of her. BACK i believe this is 331 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 6: a strawway, fight so one hundred and fifteen pound. Woman 332 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 6: it is just more difficult to keep your opponent on 333 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 6: the ground in these lower weight. 334 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: Classes but that's. 335 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 6: IT i just expect a very close and competitive. FIGHT 336 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 6: i think they'll keep up on, volume AND i Think 337 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 6: cardilosi in this second and third rounds is going to 338 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 6: eventually take over on momentum and on. 339 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: Cardios SO i. 340 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 6: Like a little bit pre fight at plus one eighty, 341 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 6: FIVE i probably prefer her live after round one at 342 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 6: a better. Number Maybe i'll get something closer to plus 343 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 6: three hundred on Carnal oci live after round, one but 344 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 6: once some pre fight will add live after round. 345 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 3: One Billy ward underdog that you see value in this. 346 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 5: Week, yeah another one of the women's. FIGHT i Like Tamaris. 347 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 5: Vidal she was plus three hundred earlier in the, week 348 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 5: WHICH i gave out in the luck. Ratings still at 349 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 5: two to. Seventy still like that. Angle there's two parts 350 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 5: of this. One this is a female. Fight it's roughly 351 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 5: even money to go to, Decision so not one of 352 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 5: those where we think it's almost certainly a. Decision we're 353 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 5: banking on the judges to get it. Wrong with that 354 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 5: said fifty to fifty to go do. Decision we saw 355 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 5: a couple of real bad decisions last. WEEK i had 356 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 5: one go for, me one go against, Me so call 357 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 5: it even on my, End but that can certainly, happen 358 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 5: especially in these lower level. Fights but also this fight's 359 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 5: at one thirty. Five Melissa gatto normally fights. Flyway she's 360 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 5: coming in on kind of short notice. Here she's two 361 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 5: two in THE, ufc but not necessarily the most impressive 362 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 5: wins From. Gotto vidal only has two losses in her. 363 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 5: Career one was she was twenty years old making her 364 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,880 Speaker 5: second fight Against Carol, josa who had like twelve pro 365 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 5: fights at that, point and the other was a split. 366 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,959 Speaker 5: Decision so we haven't seen her get, solidly you, know, 367 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 5: dominated or beaten that badly really at any point in her. 368 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 5: Career but again we've got the short notice, angle we've 369 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 5: got the size of. Scrapancy vidal should be bigger and. 370 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 5: Stronger gotto is the more skilled, fighter probably should, win 371 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 5: but we never know when these fighters come in on short. 372 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,640 Speaker 5: Notice Anthony smith admitted in an interview a couple of weeks. 373 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 5: Ago he's, like, YEAH i wasn't trained UNTIL i got that. 374 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 5: CALL i put in six days of a, camp and 375 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 5: we never know what the case is when you're getting 376 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 5: plus two to seventy on someone that's worth taking the 377 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 5: risk just to see If gotto is unprepared or the 378 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 5: cardio's not, there or she's a little bit, softer any 379 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 5: of those. 380 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 3: Issues all, right there you, go six day. Camp did 381 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 3: you ever have to do one of those things to 382 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 3: ramp it? 383 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 2: Up? 384 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 5: Oh, YEAH i took like all my fights for short 385 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 5: notice at a certain point in. There just Got when 386 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 5: you're fighting lower, levels the skilled discrepancy is pretty wide 387 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 5: in both. Directions i've had somewhere as by far the 388 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 5: worst fighter somewhere as by far the, better where that 389 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 5: camp doesn't make that big of a. Difference you're kind 390 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 5: of gonna win right away or lose right away no matter. 391 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 5: What at this, level, though the BEST ufc fighter is 392 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 5: not that different from the WORST ufc, fighter except maybe at, 393 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 5: heavyweight and having that time to prepare and that time 394 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 5: to get in shape and to get sharp makes a 395 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 5: bigger difference when the margins are so thin than it 396 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 5: does with like two guys fighting in a high school 397 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,239 Speaker 5: gym In, Row pennsylvania or. 398 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 1: WHATEVER i get your, drift let's do props and best 399 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: bets we'll get out of. 400 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 3: Here go, Ahead sorilla for a prop that you're eyeing this. 401 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,239 Speaker 6: Week adrian and as minus one thirty five to win 402 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 6: inside the. Distance you could consider playing his knock our. 403 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 6: Prop but this guy's AT bjj black belt AND i 404 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 6: expect him to find his FIRST ufc submission at some. 405 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 6: Point he's facing an opponent In Benisia salvador who's probably 406 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 6: going to try to shoot on. 407 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 5: Him. 408 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 6: Now salvador is moving up from flyweight. Here these two 409 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 6: are the same size on, paper But salvador is knocked 410 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 6: out regionally by guys who ARE bjj, practitioners SO i 411 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 6: don't think he has a. Chin he's probably going to 412 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 6: be smaller in terms of like physique Than, yenz not 413 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 6: in terms of height or, reach but. Physique yene is 414 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 6: an actual one thirty five Or salvad or more of 415 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 6: a one twenty, five And jenez is great boxing for 416 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 6: one hundred and thirty five pound. Division had back to 417 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 6: back tough matchups Against rob font And Jonathan. Martinez where 418 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 6: he was finished by boxing and by the leg, kicks, 419 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 6: respectively but typically he is the one doing the. Finishing 420 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 6: typically when he hits his, opponents they do not react 421 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:29,400 Speaker 6: like they do when they get hit by a undred 422 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 6: other one hundred and thirty five pound. Fighters YenS seems 423 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 6: to have very good technique but also a little bit 424 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 6: of sneaky power in his. Hands AND i just think 425 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 6: the gap between his money line at minus four hundred 426 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 6: and is inside the distance propit minus one, ten minus one, 427 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 6: thirty you, know minus one ten knockout inside the discance 428 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 6: minus one thirty. Five just think there's two. 429 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 5: Wide of the gap. 430 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 6: There so projected this closer to minus one. Fifty i'll 431 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 6: Take Adyran inez inside the distance at minus one thirty. 432 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 3: Five Billy propy rying this. 433 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 5: Week, YEAH i Love SEAN'S i was very tempted to 434 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 5: play that when a fighter is that much. Better i'm 435 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 5: surprised to see the inside the distance line so far 436 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 5: away from their money line because THE ufc is trying 437 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 5: to do un as a. Solid here they gave two tough. 438 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 5: Matchups now we get the guy who' zero and two 439 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 5: in THE, ufc like we know what's. Happening. Here this 440 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 5: is too, right like we all know kind of what 441 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 5: the plan is. HERE i like it slight underdog money 442 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 5: Alatang heey Fighting Cleedson. RODRIGUEZ i don't love Alatang heeley's, 443 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 5: game but this is kind of just A Cleedson rodriguez. 444 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 5: Fade he's one and two in THE. Ufc his only 445 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,199 Speaker 5: win was a knockout Over Shannon. Ross Shannon ross has 446 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 5: been knocked out like five times coming contender series in THE. 447 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 5: Ufc everybody knocks him. OUT i kind of don't count that. 448 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 5: ONE i just don't Think clegson that's. Good he struggled 449 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 5: on the, scales had to go up a weight, class 450 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 5: got finished in the first round By Freid bascher rat 451 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 5: who all of his other wins in THE ufc have been. 452 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 5: Decisioned heally's got good, power good, boxing has seemed to 453 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 5: be making some. Improvement so slight plus money. There that 454 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 5: was the other ONE i gave out in the luck 455 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,159 Speaker 5: ratings at a slightly better, price but it hasn't moved too. 456 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 5: Much it's five ton cent, different So i'd still play. 457 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: That and for a best bet FOR Ufc vegas ninety. 458 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: Two is this a best bet or a final Bet. 459 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 6: Seanzillo it's a final Bet, Morley alvas And Abos magametov 460 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 6: under one and a half rounds at minus one thirty. 461 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 6: Five AS i, Said Ks williams probably my actual best, 462 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 6: bet but this is my favorite total on the card 463 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 6: and probably my second favorite bet overall on the. Card 464 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 6: worley moving up or has moved up from one to 465 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 6: seventy to one eighty, five and he's just too small 466 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 6: to be fighting at. Middleweight ABIs is three inches. Taller 467 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 6: he has a six inch reach. Advantage worley didn't have 468 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 6: good cardio one. Seventy it doesn't look like it has 469 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 6: improved much at one eighty five. Either we didn't haven't 470 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 6: really seen him. Extended but this is going to be 471 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 6: a car crash in the small. Cage both of these 472 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 6: guys tend to win their fights in under one and 473 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 6: a half. Rounds they're in the smaller cage at The. 474 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 6: Apex they're going to be on top of each other 475 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 6: and they have nowhere to go but. 476 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 3: Forward SO i. 477 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 6: Expect somebody to get finished within the first seven and 478 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 6: a half minutes of this. Fight otherwise it's going to 479 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 6: become an absolute slot. Fest considering neither of them have 480 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 6: good gas, tanks so this could be a wild fight 481 00:21:58,480 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 6: if it goes over the one and a half, round 482 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 6: But i'm expecting it to end under one and a. 483 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 6: HALF i should mention, too there was another prop THAT 484 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 6: i had in my, card And billy also likes this 485 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 6: fighter as, well So i'm sure he his thoughts were. Me's, 486 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 6: BRAHIMI i have to win in rounds one or round 487 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 6: two at plus two. HUNDRED i don't mind his money 488 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 6: line pre fight. EITHER i think he's the pre fight 489 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 6: side because this guy's won all of his fights within 490 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 6: the first eight, minutes all ten wins by. Submission So 491 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 6: brahimi to get it done in the first seven and 492 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 6: a half minutes in the first two, ROUNDS i like 493 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 6: it plus two, hundred and THEN i think you. CAN 494 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 6: i bet Fem garrimo after round, one And billy has 495 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 6: a slightly different approach he's, playing but at a similar price. 496 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 5: Point, YEAH i just REALIZED i gave out my final 497 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 5: bet as my, prop and Now i'm going to loop 498 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 5: back to my prop, here which Is brahimi by submission 499 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 5: at plus one. Ninety very similar thoughts To. Sean it 500 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,640 Speaker 5: correlates very heavily with those early rounds we don't see as. 501 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 5: Money late submission guys get so, sweaty their arms get, 502 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 5: tired it's hard to squeeze. Chokes we're pretty much saying 503 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 5: the same thing and that just slightly different ways play 504 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 5: at a different. Price just a far better grappler than That, 505 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 5: grimbo who's fun story been impressive with his striking not 506 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 5: really much. Too he's got done some offensive, wrestling but 507 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 5: also got taken down By Takashi sado submitted BY. A. 508 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 5: J fletcher has some definite weaknesses. There his weakness is 509 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 5: What BRAHIM i almost exclusively, does so it's pretty clear 510 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 5: one for. Me and you, know if you want to 511 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 5: get greedy round one, submission round two, submission split it 512 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 5: that way or same game parlays under one and a 513 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 5: half with. Submission you can get a little bit better 514 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 5: price on, that but it's not a demonstrative enough difference 515 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 5: THAT i would go away from either of the. Ways 516 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 5: we're playing it at around two to one. 517 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 6: And then an easy live Hedgean garribao after run one 518 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 6: probably well. 519 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 5: Right because if we're thinking you can't get the submission, 520 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 5: late the only way he can win is by submission 521 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 5: AFTER i would probably give him the start of that second, 522 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 5: round see how they come out BEFORE i play. It 523 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 5: it's always, tough like depending on how you're, watching whether 524 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 5: you're watching ON espn OR Espn plus or Fight, pass 525 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 5: you kind of never know exactly where you're at in 526 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 5: terms of the, Delay so some of those mid round 527 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,959 Speaker 5: live bets are a little bit. Tricky SO i definitely 528 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 5: coming in after round, one but this is one where 529 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 5: you could definitely see it takedown right out of the. 530 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 5: Gate round two still kind of, fresh still have the 531 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 5: energy for. It that scares me a little, bit not 532 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:11,679 Speaker 5: waiting that extra minute or. 533 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 1: TWO i think this entire card is ON Espn. Plus 534 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 1: pre limbs start at Four eastern and then seven o'clock 535 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 1: main car begins ALL Espn. 536 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 3: Plus you're catching up with the, Stream. Billy this could 537 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 3: be also. 538 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 5: A Fight pass, THOUGH i. BELIEVE i think if you 539 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 5: have Fight pass you can also. 540 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,479 Speaker 3: Watch is that faster than? 541 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 6: Plus Fight pass also shows you the corners in between. Rounds, 542 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 6: yeah it doesn't go to poetial, breaks so fight. Pass 543 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 6: if you're live, betting Fight pass is definitely the preferred 544 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:38,360 Speaker 6: method to watch. 545 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 5: This i'm not sure that it's necessarily faster or there's less. 546 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 5: Delay i've never done him side by side to. See 547 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 5: but the not cutting to commercial helps because it gives 548 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 5: you a little bit more, information a little bit of 549 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 5: time to see what's going. 550 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 6: On see the fighters on their. Sool, yeah see how 551 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 6: they we're looking physically between. 552 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 1: Rounds, right, Great, well that's ACTUALLY i didn't even know. 553 00:24:55,960 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: That that's good, insight very. Good i'm just an. Me 554 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: that's a whole podcast in of. Itself too many streaming, 555 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: services as we just found out with THE nfl schedule 556 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: that just came out the other. 557 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 5: Day just waiting till. This you think you broadcast deal 558 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 5: with the espans up and we have to have nine 559 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 5: different things to watch. It that's that's my actual best 560 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 5: bet is that we're not going to be able to 561 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 5: watch all THE ufc in one, place and over and half. 562 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 3: Services seems like they might go To. 563 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,679 Speaker 6: Netflix trending Towards. 564 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,719 Speaker 5: NETFLIX i can see, that But i'm going to be Exclusively. 565 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 5: Netflix it'll be In. Netflix and then you gotta have 566 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 5: something else for the Crappy apex cards and you know 567 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 5: how they do. 568 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 1: WELL i think it's helpful when we tell the audience 569 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: where they can find, this especially a card like this 570 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: if they're looking for it this. 571 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,400 Speaker 3: Weekend thanks To Billy Ward Shawn. 572 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 1: Zarillo also Again brian Von seca for his assessment of 573 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: the big boxing match coming up this weekend as. 574 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 3: Well find all three. 575 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: Of those guys in The Action network app and also 576 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 1: check out their Content Action network website as well at 577 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot. Com thanks for tuning into OUR ufc betting 578 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 1: creview presented by BET. 579 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 3: Mgm we all have a. 580 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 1: Creepy Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you 581 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help 582 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred 583 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: gambler