WEBVTT - Chuck's Commentary - Putin’s BIG Mistake When Dealing With Trump + Why Divisiveness Became Political Strategy 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:07.680 Hello there, I'm Chuck Todd. Welcome to another episode of 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:11.799 the Chuck Podcast. Hey, just a quick little housekeeping note 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:15.760 if you will, particularly if you listen to the Check 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.919 podcast versus watching it on YouTube, although we'd love for 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.480 you to go to the YouTube channel, subscribe, like and subscribe. 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.119 You know all of these you know, you know my 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:28.600 whining about algorithms. You know, I can whine all I want, 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:30.880 but this is the system that we have. You know, 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.200 as I joke, I cover politics as it is well 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.240 in the information ecosystem. Just because I think it sucks 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.279 doesn't mean I'm not going to participate in it as 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.800 best I can. So would love that. But we're making 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:46.159 a slight tweak on the audio front, really based on 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:51.040 sort of our own sort of consumer demands, if you will, 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.440 We're going to break the We're going to offer the 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.720 podcast now in sort of two different ways. You can 0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:00.680 get the entire thing as one every episode and that 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:04.680 regularly is somewhere two hours or less. Or we will 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:08.720 also offer it so if you just do the audio feed, 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.080 you may see one episode, you may get three beads. 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.480 One is the entire thing, soup to nuts. One is 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:17.360 just are just the feature interview for that episode. So today, 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.480 for instance, it's Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's, 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.440 and then one is just my thoughts for the day, 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:27.720 coupled with the Q and A. So it's a way 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.600 if you want to absorb in chunks or if you 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.479 want to do it all at once. My feeling is, 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.520 in this day and age, you know you're in charge 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:40.479 is the consumer. We're putting all the content out there 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.280 and we want it. We want you to be able 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:45.399 to consume it anyway you want, not forcing you to 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.880 consume it the way we want you to consume it 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:50.680 for what it's worth. I do think of it as 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:56.000 one one whole meal, sort of thoughts of the day, 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.440 something you know that I've been thinking about, an interview 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.520 on a topic that I think you should know more about, 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:05.800 and then responding to your question. So I do think 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:07.920 of it as sort of a complete meal. But I 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.320 also know in this day and age, people you want 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:12.320 to grab Hey, I'm curious of this, So that's an 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:14.280 interesting interview, but I want to listen to that later 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:18.160 totally get that. So we want to provide the opportunity 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.840 to give you, to give you basically both options and 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:24.800 of course if you want to watch, that's what YouTube 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.320 is for as well. So we appreciate all the different ways. 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.640 And that's the thing I've learned since going independent, which 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.679 is I preached it all the time when I was 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:40.359 at NBC. Platform neutral. Don't force consumers to take your 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.799 content the way you want it. You got to sort 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:46.639 of meet them where they are. And this is another 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:48.280 attempt of me trying to meet you where you are. 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:53.040 Speaking of that and the information ecosystem, there actually was 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:57.080 a huge development and how you consume information that is 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:01.120 going to have a gigantic impact on local news and 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:03.560 it's probably a headline you had no idea. I was 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.680 going to single out this morning about it, but I 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:07.480 want to make a brief mention of it since I 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:12.239 talk about local news all the time and how I think, really, 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:14.919 we're not going to repair the reputation of national news 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.880 until we clean up the local news ecosystem. But we're 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:24.160 about to see another devastating blow to local news this morning. 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:26.640 There's a merger that was announced next Star Media Group 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:31.359 and Tegna essentially buying out Tegna merging. Of these these 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.000 are the two largest at this point. Now this is 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:38.880 going to be the largest single company that owns local affiliates. 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:42.640 So your local channel four, channel ten, channel nine, channel seven, 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.320 whatever market you live in some way, your single digit markets, 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.240 your local ABC affiliate, your local NBC affiliate, your local 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.720 Fox affiliate, your local CBS affiliate. These are not the 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:55.240 O and os. Sometimes the networks we call them O 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:58.520 and os owned and operated where the national network also 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:01.920 owns the local news. If you live in New York 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:08.400 and LA, for instance, those local channels KNBC, WNBC, WABC, KABC, 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:12.960 those are owned by ABC and NBC. But if you live, 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:16.120 say where I grew up in Miami, one of the 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:20.080 affiliates is owned by by one of the big networks. 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:25.800 The local NBC affiliate is owned and operated by NBC National, 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.760 NBC Universal, but the other ones are not. Channel ten 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.559 was the ABC affiliate, they've now they're now an independent channel. 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.680 They have no network affiliation. Channel seven is the Fox affiliate. 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.520 They now also are the ABC affiliate. And this is 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:42.320 what I want to get to, this merging. We are 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:47.839 going to see consolidation in the local TV sector, just 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:50.280 in the same way we saw consolidation twenty years ago 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.640 when it came to local newspapers, right, the morning papers 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:57.480 and the afternoon papers that we used to have. Essentially 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:00.680 that all collapsed the day of the internet. You didn't 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.880 need the whole afternoon paper. And essentially we saw that 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.320 sort of consolidation take place in the eighties and nineties 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.480 and it has left us with the with the mess 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:17.000 that we have today in the local newspaper news arena. Well, 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:18.760 now we're going to see it on the TV side 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.359 of things, this consolidation. You're going to have something that 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.200 you're going to see show up in some of your 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:28.039 markets now called doopolies. And what that means is one 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.920 local affiliate will be the same place you go to 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:35.720 for ABC programming and CBS programming, or for NBC in Miami, 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:39.560 now it is ABC programming and Fox programming. The same 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:44.320 local entity will be who serves you up that programming. 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:48.120 And instead of now having two distinct local news organizations, 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:51.680 you'll now have one. Right, That's what this consolidation is 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:52.880 going to lead to. So we're going to a few 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:56.599 local journalists. You know, in theory, you should mean you 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.960 take one outlet and make it bigger, but that is 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:02.279 never how this stuff works out right. It is simply 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:06.000 the consolidation does not. You do not have take two 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:09.880 entities and hope that then you take two hundred percent 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.080 and say cut that in half, but you still have, 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.719 say a greater amount of resources than one alone. That 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.840 is not how this is going to work, sadly, and 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:22.760 this is why I'm so obsessed with trying to reanimate 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:28.480 and recreate the local news information ecosystem, community based news 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:31.440 that is more platform neutral. I think you have everybody's 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:35.039 in retreat right now. Resources are collapsing, just at a 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:37.880 time when there's actually demand for more local information. So 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:41.720 this this was something that was going to happen. The 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.680 FCC is going to allow likely allow more and more 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:49.520 looser regulatory decisions. The point is this is a big 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.839 deal that's going to get very little coverage, but the 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:58.560 impact on local communities fewer resources covering what's going on locally. 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:02.080 It is only for me motivating me to try to 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.520 figure out this larger idea that I really believe we've 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:09.120 got to scale the expansion of local news, reanimate it. 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.920 I believe youth sports and high school sports is maybe 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:15.920 the connective tissue that can sort of bring trust back, 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:20.400 unite different communities to do this. But This is a 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:28.120 This is a transformative moment today and the impact on 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:33.160 how you get local information is going to be dramatic. 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:35.120 You may not notice it in the next six months, 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:38.120 you certainly are going to notice it over the next 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:41.200 eighteen months to two years. This has huge you know, 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:46.160 this means fewer local entities to put on debates, fewer 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:50.200 local entities to give candidates access to the public. So 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:57.120 this has a lot of impact on our political communications, 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:01.280 on how we campaign politics, all of those things, how 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:04.160 you get basic information about your community. So this is 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:09.920 a huge you know, as more developments happen, I obviously 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:13.000 want to we'll be doing my best to surface this, 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.120 but this gets it. This is this is the moment. 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:19.520 This is why, oddly I actually think there's opportunity, right 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:23.240 whenever there's consolidation, that's actually the opportunity, Right, You have 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.360 a whole bunch of big entities that are in retreat, 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.840 nothing like a little startup to show up and actually 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:34.960 try to expand. And so it's something something I want 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:38.240 to focus there. Obviously, one other big obviously, the other 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:42.120 big actual political headline has to do with Zelenski's trip 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:48.200 to Washington, d C. With with his super friends in 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.880 this case, the super super European friends, right, the G 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.000 seven Allies, the heads of Italy and France and the 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:58.080 UK and Germany. And clearly, you know, everybody has figured 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:00.200 out how to play kate Donald Trump, right, every thing 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:05.000 is about placating him. And you know, whether I think 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:08.920 somebody referred to the phrase tongue bathing Trump is what 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.679 Zelensky's finally learned to do. Even showed up in a 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:15.079 nice looking, very modern looking suit. Let me just tell 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.160 you if I would hope that this becomes the model 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:22.679 of what is considered dressing up in Washington because there 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.240 was no tie, right, how great was that there was 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.920 no tie? It looks looks sleek. You know, the all 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.120 black look helps you look thinner. I need to look 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.160 thinner these days. So hey, I endorse it. Let's see 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:36.000 it come. But in all seriousness, you could see that 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:40.120 this was a case where they were there, that the 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.480 European Allies and Zelensky were hoping if they're the last 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:45.640 person in the room and I you know, and as 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.319 you could see, Trump seems to be vacillating. And it's 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:50.920 interesting here that he sees himself more as a mediator 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:53.400 between the two sides, rather than as an ally of 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.760 the West. It is weirdly head scratching, right, He's the 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.200 one that would leave the room and go talk, go 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.480 talk to Putin for forty minutes to see what was possible, 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:08.720 right he was, he was the go between. Now he 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.200 does have the best relationship among the G seven leaders 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:14.360 with Putin. Right before Trump, when Biden was in office, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:19.040 and even actually during the Biden assume me, the Obama years, 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:20.600 and even the first Trump termam it was thought of 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.440 his Merkle who had the best relationship with Putin, in 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:28.800 part because he spoke German and so they seem to 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.920 be able to communicate better than the other world leaders. 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.800 These days, it really is Trump who apparently has the 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:40.640 best relationship with Putin. So look, I think it all 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.200 went it could have. I guess the best headline on 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.400 all of this over the last ninety six hours is 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.800 it could have been worse. Right. It wasn't Helsinki when 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.200 it came to Putin, and it wasn't February when it 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.559 came to Zelenski. And for that, I think everybody's grateful, 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:57.680 and I think part of that is the effort the 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:02.160 Europeans have made. I mean, in some ways, perhaps Trump 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:07.199 deserves some credit for this, both in action and in action, right. 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.080 The inaction has sort of forced the Europeans to start 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:14.880 working more together, to start thinking about security, which actually 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.480 is some of the rhetoric we've heard from some on 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.320 the right who've said, hey, you know, you heard jd. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:24.720 Vance say that Europe has been a bit free. I 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:26.720 think he'd referred to him as freeloaders at one point 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:29.120 when it came to American security. And the fact is, 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:31.120 if you know, this is not you know, I think 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.440 what Trump's been a wake up call to Europe, right, 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.400 which is the assumption that America was always going to 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:38.760 be there. You never know which way America could turn, 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:42.160 and suddenly now the instability of the partnership with America 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:49.719 has forced Europe to to rethink how it conducts its alliances, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:55.880 rethink its continent security. And in that sense, if you're 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.719 you know, if you're on the right of center and 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.400 and wanted the US to have a smaller footprint when 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:09.840 it came to our national security, our commitments, then this 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.439 is a victory because it's Europe that's taking the lead 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.440 on defending Zelenski. It'll be a European I'm trying to 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.680 figure out, you know, how the Russians view you know, 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.360 he you know, Putin's red line is no NATO troops 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:25.559 in Ukraine to providing security. But if it's a collection 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.920 of European troops, what's the difference if and if all 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.000 those European countries are members of NATO? Is that is 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.960 that a distinct different distinction without a difference or is 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.480 that just enough to play Kate Putin? Right? I think 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:43.560 that's going to be an important, an important moment, There's 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.520 no doubt there's Look, politically, you're not gonna be able 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.520 to sell in this country putting American troops in Ukraine. Okay, 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.480 so this is not that that is off the table. 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.880 I'm not sure there would be bipartisan support for that, 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.920 to be honest. There is definitely an exult austion from 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:04.680 American national security commitment still when it comes to Iraq 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.439 and Afghanistan. So I don't think that there would be 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.480 the political will in this country for that. The question 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:14.920 is if it's an alliance of European countries that are 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.640 providing it, you know those you know, how to me 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:20.920 NATO and European countries are kind of one and the 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.320 same thing is that the way Putin is going to 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.600 see it, which sometimes he chooses to see it that 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.320 way and sometimes he doesn't. So I think that's an 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.600 important sticking point. But I want to get at one 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:35.040 aspect to this that is still which to me and 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:40.360 perhaps it's why Trump is still gettable by the West 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.920 here for them to take their side. First of all, 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.680 I think it is pretty clear that unlike most issues, 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:49.160 there really is multiple points of view inside the West 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:53.240 wing in Trump's here that unlike many other issues, there's 0:13:53.280 --> 0:14:01.400 a healthy debate internally about Ukraine that see Putin and 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:05.360 Russia much more as a threat to the West than 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.240 others see Putin and Russia. So I think the fact 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.320 that there's that spirited debate inside the West wing and 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:15.680 that Trump seems to vacillate a little bit is why 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:20.560 we have this sort of weird sort of takeaways from 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.520 this last ninety six hours, right, which I do think, 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.680 and I think there's part of the more Europe flatters Trump. 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.440 It clearly works right, just like it's worked for Putin. 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:37.960 The Europeans have figured this out. Trump just wants respect, right. 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.120 He may not have earned the respect, but he wants people. 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:45.200 I was saying this before. He's in some ways desperate 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:49.240 for it, right. It goes back to his complex about 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.640 you know, being an outer Borough kid trying to make 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.800 it in Manhattan. He's you know, at the end of 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.960 the day, he's been wanting to be respected by the 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:00.600 New York Times, respected by the elites. The less they 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.760 give him respect, the angry or he gets, and the 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:04.960 more it goes against the elites. But even as he 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:06.880 goes against the elites and he tries to build his no, 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.600 you know, if he's paid, you know, he still wants 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.800 the elite awards. Right. If he doesn't actually care about 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.680 the elites, why does he want to Nobel Peace Prize? Right? 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:21.160 But in some ways it's he still craves it, right, 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:25.800 And I think that that the Europeans have finally figured 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:30.920 this out and are placating him in ways that you 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:32.560 look at it and you may just shake your head 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:36.040 kind of laugh that this kind of stuff works. But 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:38.200 it does get me at one point, and a huge 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:42.200 miscalculation by Putin. You know, I do think that Putin 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:46.200 really has very low regard for Trump and thinks Trump 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.760 is really easy to manipulate. Why do I say this 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.720 because he's given Trump nothing and and you know, he 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.160 pays him lip service. Right, he tells Trump what he 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.640 wants to hear about mail in voting. You know what 0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.320 Trump wants to hear about whether the war would have 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:03.640 started if Trump been president or not. But he never 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.480 actually gives Trump a win that Trump is asking for. Right, 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.080 the fact that Putin couldn't even give him a one 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.920 week cease fire, couldn't even give him a ceasefire during 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.040 the time that they were meeting in Alaska, couldn't give 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:20.680 him a ceasefire just for the seventy two hours that 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:24.880 he was playing Shuttle diplomacy between Putin and Zelenski, that is, 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.760 that is total disrespect by Putin, right, It totally should 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:34.560 undermine the idea that Putin wouldn't have launched this invasion 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.920 of Ukraine and Trump had been president if he respected 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.600 Trump so much? Why is any Why can't even give 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:44.520 him a temporary ceasefire? And I think Putin thinks he 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.960 can just pay lip service and not actually have to 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:50.560 match the lip service with an action. I think he's messcalculating. 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.600 I think this is success. I think over time Trump, 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:56.160 you know, he has said it a few times. I 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.440 think Putin's tappened me along. I remember he said that 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.440 at one point, and the fact that you know, this 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.680 is where Putin's never going to have. You know, maybe 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.480 he has ambition that he's going to have an even 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:11.359 more pro Russian, more pro Putin president after Trump. I 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.360 don't know who that would be, but maybe he somehow 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.120 fantasizes about that. But I think it's safe to say 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:21.760 this is going to be the most friendly leader that 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.560 he's ever going to have in the United States. So 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:30.840 to not to not enhance his reputation at a time 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.080 when he's desperate to enhance it, not to help him 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.480 get his seaes Fire, get his Peace Prize, give him 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.000 more credibility with the West, with the guy that you 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.480 have influenced, really seems to be a mistake on Putin's part, 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:45.040 and I think it's shorted. I think it tells me 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:49.640 how myopic Putin is, how sheltered Putin is, how much 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:53.080 he doesn't quite see the world very well, and the 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.720 miscalculations he's making on this right, he thought he was 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:57.600 going to roll over Ukraine. I mean, he is not 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.800 getting very good intelligence. It's pretty if he was. He 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.880 never would have probably done the invasion in the first place. 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.280 They really thought this was going to be quick and easy, 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:09.520 and they were wrong. And they continue to be wrong 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:13.480 on some of the military capabilities of Ukraine. They continue 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:16.280 to be wrong about the ability to divide Europe from 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.800 the United States or to divide Europe amongst itself. And 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:24.560 so I think he's done it again, and he had 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:29.439 an opportunity to give Trump more leverage. Trump has more 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:32.080 leverage over him than he refuses to choose. Right. I 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.159 mean to me, it's a simple way to get him 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.120 to get Putin here, just say, look, come out and say, 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:38.960 you know, the more I think about it, I'm going 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:40.719 to put Ukraine in NATO because I don't ever want 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.960 to see another war again. It's pretty clear Putin won't 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:48.080 touch a country that's a member of NATO. And see 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.320 how fast Putin might suddenly retreat and talk about a ceasefire. 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:54.000 But he's never used that leverage, right, Trump has not 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:59.159 used the leverage that I think he has. But the 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.840 same goes for Putin has an opportunity here to essentially 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.440 give a few wins to Trump that would enhance his reputation, 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:10.359 and only while still preserving that personal relationship he has 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.320 with him. So again, you know a lot of times 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.360 I really want to be dispassionate and looking at these 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:17.800 things and just sort of like saying, hey, wait a minute, 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:19.960 forget what you think is the right thing to do. 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:22.520 Try to figure out why is any doing this? And 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:24.840 this is a bit of a mystery to me, but 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:27.200 I think it has to do with he's getting bad information, 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:31.520 he's getting bad intelligence, or he thinks that little of Trump, 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:34.560 that Trump has been so easy to manipulate with words, 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.639 that he doesn't have to bother with an action or 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.840 two to give to give Trump a win or two 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:47.000 that would ironically strengthen him. It's in, which of course 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:48.720 would be, but that would be long term thing, and 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:54.399 normally Putin's usually thinking long term. He really is miscalculating 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:56.320 this one, and I think he does leave it up 0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.760 for grabs, and you know it. I think the more 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:03.679 you look at Putin's actions, you realize he is nothing 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:07.200 but a thug who wants to take over a sovereign nation, 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.320 and there's only one person that can stop the killing. 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:14.280 It's him, right, Ukraine could put down arms tomorrow, and 0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:17.320 he's not going to stop the killing until he gets 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:21.440 that country, so it is on him, and so it's 0:20:21.480 --> 0:20:26.479 a I think we need to ask ourselves that question. 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:29.200 And there's certainly a question that I'd love to get 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:31.720 more clarity from our Intel community, but I'm not sure 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:34.000 how public any of that can be because it's so 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:37.120 sensitive when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. Right, 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:42.879 But why is Putin sort of not giving Trump a 0:20:42.920 --> 0:20:46.840 little something here because it would actually help him both 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:49.520 of them in the long term, which you would think, Again, 0:20:49.560 --> 0:20:53.320 I go back, Putin's never going to have a president 0:20:53.359 --> 0:21:02.560 who's this let's just say, supportive, probably in one hundred years, 0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:07.680 and if not even more maybe ever. So it is 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.280 this is where I think Putin is making some strategic 0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.200 mistakes here, because he's now unified Europe in a way 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:18.320 that Europe wasn't unified before the invasion. Right, it continues. 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:23.800 He may have successfully, you know, cracked the American partnership 0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:26.960 with Europe thanks to Donald Trump, but in doing so, 0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:32.720 he's united Europe in a way that the US could 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:36.159 have only dreamed about ten years ago. All Right. That 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:41.320 takes me to my substat column this week, and it 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:44.960 is in some ways it's more of the longer term 0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:51.560 exercise that that I've been using this podcast for and 0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:57.200 using my substack for, which is simply trying to explain 0:21:57.280 --> 0:21:59.960 how he got here and trying to offer up idea 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:03.280 is to get us out of this mess? Right? What 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:06.120 do I mean? Right? Well, let me put it this way. 0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:08.439 If there's a through line in the way I've been 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:14.719 analyzing politics lately, it's this how we got here and 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.240 how we get out? And what do I mean by here? 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:20.240 I mean the politics of division, the politics where we 0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:24.000 emphasize what separates us, not what we share, Where every 0:22:24.080 --> 0:22:28.679 identity slice gets thinner, every disagreement gets sharper, and the 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:32.440 incentive structure rewards conflict over consensus. It's not a new 0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:34.560 thought for me. You've heard me talk about this before, 0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:37.320 so I'm not naive. Politics has always had conflict, that's 0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:40.160 not the point, But it hasn't always been this polarized, 0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:45.040 this performative, this locked into division as the strategy itself. 0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:47.400 So today I want to walk you through two moments, 0:22:47.520 --> 0:22:49.359 two sort of forks in the road, if you will, 0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:52.440 that I think actually go a long way in explaining 0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:56.800 how we ended up here, and perhaps it actually by 0:22:56.800 --> 0:23:00.400 figuring out how we got here it's perhaps a half 0:23:01.240 --> 0:23:05.160 for a better politics than frankly for a potential future 0:23:05.200 --> 0:23:10.040 president to take advantage of. So here's FOURK one. It 0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:12.640 was two thousand and four in the age of micro targeting. 0:23:13.760 --> 0:23:17.680 Before two thousand and four, campaigns treated undecided voters as 0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:21.680 moderates centrist types, facillating between the two parties. That's why 0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:25.040 the closing TV ads of your youth used to sound 0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:28.879 so bipartisan. Democrats would brag about working with Republicans, Republicans 0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:31.760