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Speaker 1: Hello there, I'm Chuck Todd. Welcome to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. Hey, just a quick little housekeeping note

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Speaker 1: if you will, particularly if you listen to the Check

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Speaker 1: podcast versus watching it on YouTube, although we'd love for

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Speaker 1: you to go to the YouTube channel, subscribe, like and subscribe.

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Speaker 1: You know all of these you know, you know my

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Speaker 1: whining about algorithms. You know, I can whine all I want,

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Speaker 1: but this is the system that we have. You know,

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Speaker 1: as I joke, I cover politics as it is well

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Speaker 1: in the information ecosystem. Just because I think it sucks

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean I'm not going to participate in it as

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Speaker 1: best I can. So would love that. But we're making

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Speaker 1: a slight tweak on the audio front, really based on

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Speaker 1: sort of our own sort of consumer demands, if you will,

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Speaker 1: We're going to break the We're going to offer the

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Speaker 1: podcast now in sort of two different ways. You can

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Speaker 1: get the entire thing as one every episode and that

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Speaker 1: regularly is somewhere two hours or less. Or we will

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Speaker 1: also offer it so if you just do the audio feed,

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Speaker 1: you may see one episode, you may get three beads.

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Speaker 1: One is the entire thing, soup to nuts. One is

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Speaker 1: just are just the feature interview for that episode. So today,

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Speaker 1: for instance, it's Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's,

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Speaker 1: and then one is just my thoughts for the day,

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Speaker 1: coupled with the Q and A. So it's a way

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Speaker 1: if you want to absorb in chunks or if you

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Speaker 1: want to do it all at once. My feeling is,

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Speaker 1: in this day and age, you know you're in charge

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Speaker 1: is the consumer. We're putting all the content out there

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Speaker 1: and we want it. We want you to be able

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Speaker 1: to consume it anyway you want, not forcing you to

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Speaker 1: consume it the way we want you to consume it

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Speaker 1: for what it's worth. I do think of it as

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Speaker 1: one one whole meal, sort of thoughts of the day,

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Speaker 1: something you know that I've been thinking about, an interview

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Speaker 1: on a topic that I think you should know more about,

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Speaker 1: and then responding to your question. So I do think

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Speaker 1: of it as sort of a complete meal. But I

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Speaker 1: also know in this day and age, people you want

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Speaker 1: to grab Hey, I'm curious of this, So that's an

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Speaker 1: interesting interview, but I want to listen to that later

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Speaker 1: totally get that. So we want to provide the opportunity

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Speaker 1: to give you, to give you basically both options and

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Speaker 1: of course if you want to watch, that's what YouTube

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Speaker 1: is for as well. So we appreciate all the different ways.

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Speaker 1: And that's the thing I've learned since going independent, which

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Speaker 1: is I preached it all the time when I was

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Speaker 1: at NBC. Platform neutral. Don't force consumers to take your

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Speaker 1: content the way you want it. You got to sort

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Speaker 1: of meet them where they are. And this is another

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Speaker 1: attempt of me trying to meet you where you are.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of that and the information ecosystem, there actually was

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Speaker 1: a huge development and how you consume information that is

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Speaker 1: going to have a gigantic impact on local news and

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Speaker 1: it's probably a headline you had no idea. I was

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Speaker 1: going to single out this morning about it, but I

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Speaker 1: want to make a brief mention of it since I

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Speaker 1: talk about local news all the time and how I think, really,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to repair the reputation of national news

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Speaker 1: until we clean up the local news ecosystem. But we're

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Speaker 1: about to see another devastating blow to local news this morning.

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Speaker 1: There's a merger that was announced next Star Media Group

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Speaker 1: and Tegna essentially buying out Tegna merging. Of these these

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Speaker 1: are the two largest at this point. Now this is

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Speaker 1: going to be the largest single company that owns local affiliates.

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Speaker 1: So your local channel four, channel ten, channel nine, channel seven,

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Speaker 1: whatever market you live in some way, your single digit markets,

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Speaker 1: your local ABC affiliate, your local NBC affiliate, your local

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Speaker 1: Fox affiliate, your local CBS affiliate. These are not the

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Speaker 1: O and os. Sometimes the networks we call them O

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Speaker 1: and os owned and operated where the national network also

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Speaker 1: owns the local news. If you live in New York

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Speaker 1: and LA, for instance, those local channels KNBC, WNBC, WABC, KABC,

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Speaker 1: those are owned by ABC and NBC. But if you live,

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Speaker 1: say where I grew up in Miami, one of the

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Speaker 1: affiliates is owned by by one of the big networks.

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Speaker 1: The local NBC affiliate is owned and operated by NBC National,

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Speaker 1: NBC Universal, but the other ones are not. Channel ten

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Speaker 1: was the ABC affiliate, they've now they're now an independent channel.

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Speaker 1: They have no network affiliation. Channel seven is the Fox affiliate.

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Speaker 1: They now also are the ABC affiliate. And this is

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Speaker 1: what I want to get to, this merging. We are

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Speaker 1: going to see consolidation in the local TV sector, just

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Speaker 1: in the same way we saw consolidation twenty years ago

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Speaker 1: when it came to local newspapers, right, the morning papers

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Speaker 1: and the afternoon papers that we used to have. Essentially

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Speaker 1: that all collapsed the day of the internet. You didn't

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Speaker 1: need the whole afternoon paper. And essentially we saw that

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Speaker 1: sort of consolidation take place in the eighties and nineties

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Speaker 1: and it has left us with the with the mess

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Speaker 1: that we have today in the local newspaper news arena. Well,

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Speaker 1: now we're going to see it on the TV side

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Speaker 1: of things, this consolidation. You're going to have something that

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Speaker 1: you're going to see show up in some of your

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Speaker 1: markets now called doopolies. And what that means is one

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Speaker 1: local affiliate will be the same place you go to

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Speaker 1: for ABC programming and CBS programming, or for NBC in Miami,

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Speaker 1: now it is ABC programming and Fox programming. The same

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Speaker 1: local entity will be who serves you up that programming.

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Speaker 1: And instead of now having two distinct local news organizations,

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Speaker 1: you'll now have one. Right, That's what this consolidation is

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Speaker 1: going to lead to. So we're going to a few

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Speaker 1: local journalists. You know, in theory, you should mean you

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Speaker 1: take one outlet and make it bigger, but that is

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Speaker 1: never how this stuff works out right. It is simply

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Speaker 1: the consolidation does not. You do not have take two

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Speaker 1: entities and hope that then you take two hundred percent

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Speaker 1: and say cut that in half, but you still have,

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Speaker 1: say a greater amount of resources than one alone. That

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Speaker 1: is not how this is going to work, sadly, and

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Speaker 1: this is why I'm so obsessed with trying to reanimate

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Speaker 1: and recreate the local news information ecosystem, community based news

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Speaker 1: that is more platform neutral. I think you have everybody's

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Speaker 1: in retreat right now. Resources are collapsing, just at a

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Speaker 1: time when there's actually demand for more local information. So

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Speaker 1: this this was something that was going to happen. The

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Speaker 1: FCC is going to allow likely allow more and more

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Speaker 1: looser regulatory decisions. The point is this is a big

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Speaker 1: deal that's going to get very little coverage, but the

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Speaker 1: impact on local communities fewer resources covering what's going on locally.

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Speaker 1: It is only for me motivating me to try to

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Speaker 1: figure out this larger idea that I really believe we've

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Speaker 1: got to scale the expansion of local news, reanimate it.

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Speaker 1: I believe youth sports and high school sports is maybe

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Speaker 1: the connective tissue that can sort of bring trust back,

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Speaker 1: unite different communities to do this. But This is a

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Speaker 1: This is a transformative moment today and the impact on

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Speaker 1: how you get local information is going to be dramatic.

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Speaker 1: You may not notice it in the next six months,

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Speaker 1: you certainly are going to notice it over the next

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Speaker 1: eighteen months to two years. This has huge you know,

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Speaker 1: this means fewer local entities to put on debates, fewer

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Speaker 1: local entities to give candidates access to the public. So

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Speaker 1: this has a lot of impact on our political communications,

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Speaker 1: on how we campaign politics, all of those things, how

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Speaker 1: you get basic information about your community. So this is

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Speaker 1: a huge you know, as more developments happen, I obviously

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Speaker 1: want to we'll be doing my best to surface this,

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Speaker 1: but this gets it. This is this is the moment.

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Speaker 1: This is why, oddly I actually think there's opportunity, right

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Speaker 1: whenever there's consolidation, that's actually the opportunity, Right, You have

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of big entities that are in retreat,

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Speaker 1: nothing like a little startup to show up and actually

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Speaker 1: try to expand. And so it's something something I want

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Speaker 1: to focus there. Obviously, one other big obviously, the other

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Speaker 1: big actual political headline has to do with Zelenski's trip

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Speaker 1: to Washington, d C. With with his super friends in

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Speaker 1: this case, the super super European friends, right, the G

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Speaker 1: seven Allies, the heads of Italy and France and the

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Speaker 1: UK and Germany. And clearly, you know, everybody has figured

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Speaker 1: out how to play kate Donald Trump, right, every thing

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Speaker 1: is about placating him. And you know, whether I think

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Speaker 1: somebody referred to the phrase tongue bathing Trump is what

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Speaker 1: Zelensky's finally learned to do. Even showed up in a

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Speaker 1: nice looking, very modern looking suit. Let me just tell

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Speaker 1: you if I would hope that this becomes the model

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Speaker 1: of what is considered dressing up in Washington because there

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Speaker 1: was no tie, right, how great was that there was

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Speaker 1: no tie? It looks looks sleek. You know, the all

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Speaker 1: black look helps you look thinner. I need to look

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Speaker 1: thinner these days. So hey, I endorse it. Let's see

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Speaker 1: it come. But in all seriousness, you could see that

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Speaker 1: this was a case where they were there, that the

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Speaker 1: European Allies and Zelensky were hoping if they're the last

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Speaker 1: person in the room and I you know, and as

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Speaker 1: you could see, Trump seems to be vacillating. And it's

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Speaker 1: interesting here that he sees himself more as a mediator

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Speaker 1: between the two sides, rather than as an ally of

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Speaker 1: the West. It is weirdly head scratching, right, He's the

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Speaker 1: one that would leave the room and go talk, go

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Speaker 1: talk to Putin for forty minutes to see what was possible,

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Speaker 1: right he was, he was the go between. Now he

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Speaker 1: does have the best relationship among the G seven leaders

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Speaker 1: with Putin. Right before Trump, when Biden was in office,

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Speaker 1: and even actually during the Biden assume me, the Obama years,

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Speaker 1: and even the first Trump termam it was thought of

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Speaker 1: his Merkle who had the best relationship with Putin, in

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Speaker 1: part because he spoke German and so they seem to

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Speaker 1: be able to communicate better than the other world leaders.

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Speaker 1: These days, it really is Trump who apparently has the

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Speaker 1: best relationship with Putin. So look, I think it all

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Speaker 1: went it could have. I guess the best headline on

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Speaker 1: all of this over the last ninety six hours is

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Speaker 1: it could have been worse. Right. It wasn't Helsinki when

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Speaker 1: it came to Putin, and it wasn't February when it

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Speaker 1: came to Zelenski. And for that, I think everybody's grateful,

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Speaker 1: and I think part of that is the effort the

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Speaker 1: Europeans have made. I mean, in some ways, perhaps Trump

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Speaker 1: deserves some credit for this, both in action and in action, right.

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Speaker 1: The inaction has sort of forced the Europeans to start

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Speaker 1: working more together, to start thinking about security, which actually

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Speaker 1: is some of the rhetoric we've heard from some on

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Speaker 1: the right who've said, hey, you know, you heard jd.

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Speaker 1: Vance say that Europe has been a bit free. I

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Speaker 1: think he'd referred to him as freeloaders at one point

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Speaker 1: when it came to American security. And the fact is,

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Speaker 1: if you know, this is not you know, I think

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Speaker 1: what Trump's been a wake up call to Europe, right,

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Speaker 1: which is the assumption that America was always going to

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Speaker 1: be there. You never know which way America could turn,

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Speaker 1: and suddenly now the instability of the partnership with America

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Speaker 1: has forced Europe to to rethink how it conducts its alliances,

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Speaker 1: rethink its continent security. And in that sense, if you're

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're on the right of center and

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Speaker 1: and wanted the US to have a smaller footprint when

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Speaker 1: it came to our national security, our commitments, then this

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Speaker 1: is a victory because it's Europe that's taking the lead

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Speaker 1: on defending Zelenski. It'll be a European I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out, you know, how the Russians view you know,

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Speaker 1: he you know, Putin's red line is no NATO troops

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine to providing security. But if it's a collection

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Speaker 1: of European troops, what's the difference if and if all

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Speaker 1: those European countries are members of NATO? Is that is

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Speaker 1: that a distinct different distinction without a difference or is

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Speaker 1: that just enough to play Kate Putin? Right? I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to be an important, an important moment, There's

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Speaker 1: no doubt there's Look, politically, you're not gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to sell in this country putting American troops in Ukraine. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so this is not that that is off the table.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure there would be bipartisan support for that,

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Speaker 1: to be honest. There is definitely an exult austion from

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Speaker 1: American national security commitment still when it comes to Iraq

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Speaker 1: and Afghanistan. So I don't think that there would be

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Speaker 1: the political will in this country for that. The question

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Speaker 1: is if it's an alliance of European countries that are

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Speaker 1: providing it, you know those you know, how to me

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Speaker 1: NATO and European countries are kind of one and the

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Speaker 1: same thing is that the way Putin is going to

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Speaker 1: see it, which sometimes he chooses to see it that

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Speaker 1: way and sometimes he doesn't. So I think that's an

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Speaker 1: important sticking point. But I want to get at one

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Speaker 1: aspect to this that is still which to me and

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Speaker 1: perhaps it's why Trump is still gettable by the West

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Speaker 1: here for them to take their side. First of all,

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Speaker 1: I think it is pretty clear that unlike most issues,

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Speaker 1: there really is multiple points of view inside the West

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Speaker 1: wing in Trump's here that unlike many other issues, there's

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Speaker 1: a healthy debate internally about Ukraine that see Putin and

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Speaker 1: Russia much more as a threat to the West than

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Speaker 1: others see Putin and Russia. So I think the fact

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Speaker 1: that there's that spirited debate inside the West wing and

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Speaker 1: that Trump seems to vacillate a little bit is why

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Speaker 1: we have this sort of weird sort of takeaways from

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Speaker 1: this last ninety six hours, right, which I do think,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's part of the more Europe flatters Trump.

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Speaker 1: It clearly works right, just like it's worked for Putin.

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Speaker 1: The Europeans have figured this out. Trump just wants respect, right.

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Speaker 1: He may not have earned the respect, but he wants people.

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Speaker 1: I was saying this before. He's in some ways desperate

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Speaker 1: for it, right. It goes back to his complex about

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Speaker 1: you know, being an outer Borough kid trying to make

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Speaker 1: it in Manhattan. He's you know, at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, he's been wanting to be respected by the

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Speaker 1: New York Times, respected by the elites. The less they

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Speaker 1: give him respect, the angry or he gets, and the

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Speaker 1: more it goes against the elites. But even as he

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Speaker 1: goes against the elites and he tries to build his no,

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Speaker 1: you know, if he's paid, you know, he still wants

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Speaker 1: the elite awards. Right. If he doesn't actually care about

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Speaker 1: the elites, why does he want to Nobel Peace Prize? Right?

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Speaker 1: But in some ways it's he still craves it, right,

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Speaker 1: And I think that that the Europeans have finally figured

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Speaker 1: this out and are placating him in ways that you

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Speaker 1: look at it and you may just shake your head

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Speaker 1: kind of laugh that this kind of stuff works. But

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Speaker 1: it does get me at one point, and a huge

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Speaker 1: miscalculation by Putin. You know, I do think that Putin

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Speaker 1: really has very low regard for Trump and thinks Trump

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Speaker 1: is really easy to manipulate. Why do I say this

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Speaker 1: because he's given Trump nothing and and you know, he

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Speaker 1: pays him lip service. Right, he tells Trump what he

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Speaker 1: wants to hear about mail in voting. You know what

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Speaker 1: Trump wants to hear about whether the war would have

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Speaker 1: started if Trump been president or not. But he never

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Speaker 1: actually gives Trump a win that Trump is asking for. Right,

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Speaker 1: the fact that Putin couldn't even give him a one

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Speaker 1: week cease fire, couldn't even give him a ceasefire during

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Speaker 1: the time that they were meeting in Alaska, couldn't give

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Speaker 1: him a ceasefire just for the seventy two hours that

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Speaker 1: he was playing Shuttle diplomacy between Putin and Zelenski, that is,

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Speaker 1: that is total disrespect by Putin, right, It totally should

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Speaker 1: undermine the idea that Putin wouldn't have launched this invasion

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine and Trump had been president if he respected

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Speaker 1: Trump so much? Why is any Why can't even give

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Speaker 1: him a temporary ceasefire? And I think Putin thinks he

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Speaker 1: can just pay lip service and not actually have to

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Speaker 1: match the lip service with an action. I think he's messcalculating.

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Speaker 1: I think this is success. I think over time Trump,

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Speaker 1: you know, he has said it a few times. I

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Speaker 1: think Putin's tappened me along. I remember he said that

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Speaker 1: at one point, and the fact that you know, this

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Speaker 1: is where Putin's never going to have. You know, maybe

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Speaker 1: he has ambition that he's going to have an even

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Speaker 1: more pro Russian, more pro Putin president after Trump. I

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Speaker 1: don't know who that would be, but maybe he somehow

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Speaker 1: fantasizes about that. But I think it's safe to say

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Speaker 1: this is going to be the most friendly leader that

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Speaker 1: he's ever going to have in the United States. So

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Speaker 1: to not to not enhance his reputation at a time

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Speaker 1: when he's desperate to enhance it, not to help him

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Speaker 1: get his seaes Fire, get his Peace Prize, give him

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Speaker 1: more credibility with the West, with the guy that you

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Speaker 1: have influenced, really seems to be a mistake on Putin's part,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's shorted. I think it tells me

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Speaker 1: how myopic Putin is, how sheltered Putin is, how much

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Speaker 1: he doesn't quite see the world very well, and the

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Speaker 1: miscalculations he's making on this right, he thought he was

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Speaker 1: going to roll over Ukraine. I mean, he is not

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Speaker 1: getting very good intelligence. It's pretty if he was. He

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Speaker 1: never would have probably done the invasion in the first place.

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Speaker 1: They really thought this was going to be quick and easy,

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Speaker 1: and they were wrong. And they continue to be wrong

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Speaker 1: on some of the military capabilities of Ukraine. They continue

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Speaker 1: to be wrong about the ability to divide Europe from

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Speaker 1: the United States or to divide Europe amongst itself. And

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Speaker 1: so I think he's done it again, and he had

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Speaker 1: an opportunity to give Trump more leverage. Trump has more

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Speaker 1: leverage over him than he refuses to choose. Right. I

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Speaker 1: mean to me, it's a simple way to get him

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Speaker 1: to get Putin here, just say, look, come out and say,

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Speaker 1: you know, the more I think about it, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to put Ukraine in NATO because I don't ever want

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Speaker 1: to see another war again. It's pretty clear Putin won't

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Speaker 1: touch a country that's a member of NATO. And see

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Speaker 1: how fast Putin might suddenly retreat and talk about a ceasefire.

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Speaker 1: But he's never used that leverage, right, Trump has not

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Speaker 1: used the leverage that I think he has. But the

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Speaker 1: same goes for Putin has an opportunity here to essentially

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Speaker 1: give a few wins to Trump that would enhance his reputation,

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Speaker 1: and only while still preserving that personal relationship he has

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Speaker 1: with him. So again, you know a lot of times

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Speaker 1: I really want to be dispassionate and looking at these

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Speaker 1: things and just sort of like saying, hey, wait a minute,

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Speaker 1: forget what you think is the right thing to do.

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Speaker 1: Try to figure out why is any doing this? And

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Speaker 1: this is a bit of a mystery to me, but

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Speaker 1: I think it has to do with he's getting bad information,

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Speaker 1: he's getting bad intelligence, or he thinks that little of Trump,

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Speaker 1: that Trump has been so easy to manipulate with words,

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Speaker 1: that he doesn't have to bother with an action or

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Speaker 1: two to give to give Trump a win or two

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Speaker 1: that would ironically strengthen him. It's in, which of course

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Speaker 1: would be, but that would be long term thing, and

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Speaker 1: normally Putin's usually thinking long term. He really is miscalculating

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Speaker 1: this one, and I think he does leave it up

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Speaker 1: for grabs, and you know it. I think the more

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Speaker 1: you look at Putin's actions, you realize he is nothing

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Speaker 1: but a thug who wants to take over a sovereign nation,

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Speaker 1: and there's only one person that can stop the killing.

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Speaker 1: It's him, right, Ukraine could put down arms tomorrow, and

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Speaker 1: he's not going to stop the killing until he gets

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Speaker 1: that country, so it is on him, and so it's

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Speaker 1: a I think we need to ask ourselves that question.

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Speaker 1: And there's certainly a question that I'd love to get

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Speaker 1: more clarity from our Intel community, but I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: how public any of that can be because it's so

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Speaker 1: sensitive when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. Right,

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Speaker 1: But why is Putin sort of not giving Trump a

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Speaker 1: little something here because it would actually help him both

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Speaker 1: of them in the long term, which you would think, Again,

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Speaker 1: I go back, Putin's never going to have a president

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Speaker 1: who's this let's just say, supportive, probably in one hundred years,

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Speaker 1: and if not even more maybe ever. So it is

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Speaker 1: this is where I think Putin is making some strategic

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Speaker 1: mistakes here, because he's now unified Europe in a way

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Speaker 1: that Europe wasn't unified before the invasion. Right, it continues.

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Speaker 1: He may have successfully, you know, cracked the American partnership

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Speaker 1: with Europe thanks to Donald Trump, but in doing so,

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Speaker 1: he's united Europe in a way that the US could

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Speaker 1: have only dreamed about ten years ago. All Right. That

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Speaker 1: takes me to my substat column this week, and it

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Speaker 1: is in some ways it's more of the longer term

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Speaker 1: exercise that that I've been using this podcast for and

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Speaker 1: using my substack for, which is simply trying to explain

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Speaker 1: how he got here and trying to offer up idea

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Speaker 1: is to get us out of this mess? Right? What

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Speaker 1: do I mean? Right? Well, let me put it this way.

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Speaker 1: If there's a through line in the way I've been

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Speaker 1: analyzing politics lately, it's this how we got here and

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Speaker 1: how we get out? And what do I mean by here?

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Speaker 1: I mean the politics of division, the politics where we

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Speaker 1: emphasize what separates us, not what we share, Where every

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Speaker 1: identity slice gets thinner, every disagreement gets sharper, and the

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Speaker 1: incentive structure rewards conflict over consensus. It's not a new

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Speaker 1: thought for me. You've heard me talk about this before,

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Speaker 1: so I'm not naive. Politics has always had conflict, that's

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Speaker 1: not the point, But it hasn't always been this polarized,

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Speaker 1: this performative, this locked into division as the strategy itself.

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Speaker 1: So today I want to walk you through two moments,

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Speaker 1: two sort of forks in the road, if you will,

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Speaker 1: that I think actually go a long way in explaining

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Speaker 1: how we ended up here, and perhaps it actually by

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Speaker 1: figuring out how we got here it's perhaps a half

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Speaker 1: for a better politics than frankly for a potential future

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Speaker 1: president to take advantage of. So here's FOURK one. It

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Speaker 1: was two thousand and four in the age of micro targeting.

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Speaker 1: Before two thousand and four, campaigns treated undecided voters as

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Speaker 1: moderates centrist types, facillating between the two parties. That's why

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Speaker 1: the closing TV ads of your youth used to sound

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Speaker 1: so bipartisan. Democrats would brag about working with Republicans, Republicans

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Speaker 1: like John McCain or Republicans like you know, Jim Bush

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Speaker 1: or something like that. Republicans would point out deals that

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Speaker 1: they cut with Democrats, Democrats like Ted Kennedy. You know,

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Speaker 1: you'd pick the most you know, even the most ideological

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Speaker 1: candidates in their final ads wanted to look like they

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Speaker 1: knew how to be consensus builders. Right. You know, why

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Speaker 1: did we find out about orn Hatch and Ted Kennedy

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Speaker 1: Because the oarrn Hatch wanted it, brag about it. He

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Speaker 1: thought it was good politics for him. By the way,

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Speaker 1: Kennedy thought it was good politics for him to brag

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Speaker 1: about his relationship with orn Hatch. Because the belief was simple,

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Speaker 1: undecideds were wouable if you could sound more consensus oriented

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Speaker 1: than the other guy. But two thousand and four changed that.

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Speaker 1: Karl Rove and the Bush reelection campaign team pioneered what

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Speaker 1: we called what we called then and what we still

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Speaker 1: kind of call micro targeting. They built detailed voter files

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Speaker 1: that told them exactly what church you went to, what

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Speaker 1: magazines you subscribed to, Yes, magazines, now, of course it

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Speaker 1: would be what subscriptions you have on the internet. But

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Speaker 1: stay with me here, what causes you supported? And suddenly

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Speaker 1: campaigns didn't have to guess about undecided They actually knew

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Speaker 1: who they were. And the big discovery the undecideds weren't centrist,

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Speaker 1: not at all. They were independent, but they were independents

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Speaker 1: who didn't fit neatly into either party. But they had

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Speaker 1: strong views on certain issues right, which kept them from

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Speaker 1: being in one party or the other. But if you

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Speaker 1: hit those pressure points, if you told them you agreed

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Speaker 1: with them on that one issue, you could win them over.

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Speaker 1: You might find an independent who was an economic populist

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Speaker 1: but cared about gun ownership, or you might find a

431
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: fiscal conservative that cared about planned parenthood. You see where

432
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: I'm going here, right, So the strategy flipped instead of

433
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: we're all in this together. A kind of campaigning started,

434
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: sending surgical messages to activate one slice at a time.

435
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 1: The Obama two thousand and eight campaign, in some ways

436
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: took this to another level with digital tools, and yeah,

437
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: Obama wrapped it up in some unity rhetoric. No red states,

438
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: no blue state, and in fact that might explain why

439
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: he's the only twenty first century presidential candidate to win

440
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: by more than five percentage points, right, essentially to have

441
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: a decisive victory an actual popular vote mandate. But by

442
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, and certainly by twenty sixteen, there was no

443
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: attempt at a unity messaging. Right. It was all about

444
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: slicing and dicing. That was the whole ballgame. And then,

445
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 1: of course came the big accelerant social media. Right, this

446
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 1: all seemed to fit together. Facebook were built on the

447
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: same logic as micro targeting. Right. They came up, by

448
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 1: the way, they start up just after the micro targeting

449
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: boom of campaigns and four both of those entities. Right,

450
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 1: So it was narrow casting engagement, slicing people into categories.

451
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: Campaign ads fit perfectly into that system. Division onesn't just

452
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: a campaign tactic anymore. It became a business model. And

453
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: the uncomfortable truth is this, our politics were less divisive

454
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: when campaigns actually knew less about us, about voters, once

455
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: campaigns and these tech platforms started seeing us as fragments,

456
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: learning about us and fragmented pieces, if you will, well,

457
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: they treated us like fragments. And when all you see

458
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: are things that divide you, then it's division that becomes

459
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 1: your identity. And that takes me to the second fork

460
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: in the road. And that was the total, complete misinterpretation

461
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: of the twenty twelve election that I think is one

462
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,959
Speaker 1: of the original sins. If you will, to borrow a phrase,

463
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 1: Barack Obama, this reelection should have been much harder. The

464
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: economy was sluggish, unemployment was high. History said he was

465
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: more likely to lose than win because of that high unemployment.

466
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: But he didn't why well, he reframed the question. It

467
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: wasn't are you better off now than you were four

468
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: years ago? Considering he took over during the Great Recession?

469
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: That was never going to be a good way to

470
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: talk to voters. Instead, he asked, will you be better

471
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: off four years from now? And then he cast met

472
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: Romney as the wrong answer, the out of touch boss

473
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: who wasn't on your side. One of the best examples

474
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 1: of this strategy came on Saturdays in the fall of

475
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 1: twenty twelve. The Obama campaign bought up airtime on the

476
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: Big ten network, something campaigns hadn't done before at the time,

477
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: college football Saturdays, and they hammered Romney as a job

478
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 1: outsourcered at China. These ad barely even mentioned Obama by name,

479
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: basically just the Barack Obama and I paid for this.

480
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: That was it. The entire thing was aimed squarely at

481
00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 1: working class voters in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, all

482
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 1: five states Obama would carry in twenty twelve, by the way,

483
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: and of course these are the very states that that

484
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: working class coalition became the heart of Trump's mega coalition.

485
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 1: But at its core, what Obama was appealing to was class,

486
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: not identity. Obama won those voters by convincing them Romney

487
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: didn't understand their lives, he was out of touch, He

488
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: didn't get them. I'm with you, he's not right. Ultimately,

489
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: I've always believed that's the most important question. You know,

490
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: who's with you? Who do you think's with you? But

491
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 1: it's not the lesson Democrats absorbed from that victory in

492
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: twenty twelve. Instead, they convinced themselves Obama had won because

493
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: of demographics, because of the so called coalition of the

494
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: ascendant black voters, Latino voters, young people's, single women. They

495
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 1: believe demographics were destiny. Ironically, Republicans at the time, pre

496
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: Trump Republicans drew the same conclusion, just in reverse. They're

497
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen Autopsy said they needed to reach out to

498
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: minority voters because identity was going to dominate future politics. Right,

499
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: both parties embraced this what now looks like faulty conventional

500
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: wisdom about what happened in twenty twelve. But what if

501
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: that was the wrong lesson? I think it was. What

502
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: if the real reason Obama won was class? What if

503
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: the decisive blow was Romney's forty seven percent remark. If

504
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: that's true, then Democrats spent the last decade chasing the

505
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: wrong's strategy, doubling down in identity politics just as class

506
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: was reasserting itself. Clinton leaned into the first woman president

507
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, break shattering the glass ceiling. While Trump

508
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: talked about forgotten men and women, Biden tried to reclean

509
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: some of the class frame in twenty twenty, but the

510
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: party still treated identity as its foundation. Hence the promises

511
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: he made about VP and about the Spring Court. Those

512
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: were identity promises, not class promises. By twenty twenty four,

513
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: that coalition of the ascendant theory was exhausted and clearly

514
00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: not big enough to win in the irony here. Trump's populism,

515
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 1: as cynical as it is at times, actually as more

516
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: in common with Obama's twenty twelve message, even mon Dail's

517
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: appeals back in nineteen eighty four to working class solidarity

518
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: than with Reagan's or Bush's republicanism. And that's the thing

519
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: you cannot ever forget right. The real divide of our

520
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: era hasn't been race or cultural identity. It's been class. Right,

521
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: It's what drove us in the twentieth century. So what

522
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: are the consequences of basically these two forks in the row.

523
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: Put them together micro targeting and the misreading of twenty twelve,

524
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: and you get today's politics. Campaigns that no longer practice

525
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: the muscle of unity, parties that organize themselves in identity silos.

526
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: Social media amplifies it all, and it creates a self

527
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: reinforcing cycle. Campaigns fragment us to win. Platforms reward division

528
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: because division drives engagement. Voters consume difference and sort themselves

529
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: more deeply into tribes, focusing on difference rather than on

530
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: what unites us, and parties double down on identity appeals,

531
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: treating consensus as weakness. Right, the result of politics that

532
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: overvalues division at the expense of coalition. You know, be

533
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: careful when somebody says, well, you got to stand for something. Well,

534
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: the something can be to bring the country together. That's

535
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: not a bullshit something. I think it's a good something.

536
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: But it shows up not just in campaigns, now shows

537
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: up in governing. Politicians who win by scraping fifty percent

538
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: plus one feel no obligation to reach beyond that slice.

539
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: Just look at how partisan lely both Greg Abbott and

540
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: Rond De Santis govern the state of Texas. They do

541
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: not govern the state of Texas as a whole or

542
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: the state of Florida as a whole. They only govern

543
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: the red parts. Right. They almost go to war with

544
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: the blue cities if they can. They think that's good politics.

545
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: But here's the irony. America's strength has always been the

546
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: opposite We're not an ethnic nation, we're not a religious nation.

547
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: We're a collection of people from everywhere are bound by

548
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 1: an idea, and at our best moments, our politics reflects that.

549
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: And here's where I want to leave you. It's worth

550
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: remembering the public does respond to unity messages if they're

551
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: delivered authentically. Right. Think back to Reagan's nineteen eighty four

552
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: Morning in America ad. That wasn't a micro targeted message.

553
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: It was a broad appeal to shared optimism, and it

554
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: worked across party lines. Obama's twenty oh four keynote address

555
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: really resonated. There is not a liberal America and a

556
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: conservative America. There is the United States of America. Speech

557
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: launched them nationally because people wanted to believe that messaging.

558
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: The lesson isn't that unity is easy or that division

559
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: will disappear. The lesson is that politicians still have a choice.

560
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: You can be a fifty percent plus one leader and

561
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: lead by division and survive politically by division. It's a

562
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: way to win, it's a way to stay in office.

563
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: It's not a way to be in the history books.

564
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 1: Or you can claim to be a sixty percent consensus leader.

565
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: One is arithmetic, the other is nation building. We haven't

566
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: had a nation builder as president arguably since Obama this century,

567
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: and you know we haven't. You know. The irony is

568
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: that that that you know, and maybe that was the

569
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: Cold War mentality that made us think we needed to

570
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: think this one because Reagan and Clinton in many ways

571
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: shared very similar rhetoric, even as they were of two

572
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: different political parties. Because that was the twentieth century rewarded

573
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: leaders who spoke to the whole. The twenty first century

574
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: so far as rewarded those who narrow cast to the part,

575
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: but pendulum swing and when the next leader comes along,

576
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: who can authentically summon the politics of unity, not just

577
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: say the words, but actually do it. Indeed, we're going

578
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: to rediscover something important. Americans still want to hear this,

579
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: they still want to believe this, and most importantly, I

580
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: think they want to see US government that way. So

581
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: with that, we'll sneak in a break. How are that?

582
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 1: Let me take a few questions ask Chuck. First, one

583
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 1: comes from John in Memphis and he says, I've really

584
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: enjoyed how your new media venture lets you take off

585
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: the gloves when analyzing the news. It's interesting that you

586
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: put it that way. I feel like I've always been this,

587
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: but I might I will confess to you maybe rounding

588
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: the edges in order to please bosses at times. Right,

589
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: as he said, it's been refreshing and insightful. For years,

590
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 1: I've been trying to understand the mindset of those who

591
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: took over the GOP and the Trump earrow, and your

592
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: ability to cut through the contradictions is invaluable. My question

593
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: is about the Republican diaspora. Do you think there's a

594
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 1: sizeable group of classic Reagan Conservatives outside of the Cheneys

595
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: and Kinsingers who are horrified by today's GOP but too

596
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: quiet to see if so, have they given up or

597
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: where are they? Well? I think that's the million dollar question, right.

598
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: I think we found out how many of them show

599
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 1: up to Republican primaries. Was what was Nikki Haley's vote total?

600
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: Somewhere somewhere between twenty percent and maybe thirty five percent

601
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: depending on the state. So it's about a third of

602
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: the party, okay, And I think this is what's made

603
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: the Democrats have a hard time figuring out how to

604
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: talk to these folks and why in some ways they

605
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 1: haven't won them over very well. Because the Democrats are

606
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: in their own sort of what identity crisis, right, sort

607
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: of pre you have the consensus Democrats versus probably the

608
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: progressive Democrats, right, those that look at what the look

609
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 1: at Trump's success and say, hey, he stood for something,

610
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: and this gets it to my whole point. Yeah, but

611
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: he did it through the politics of division and in

612
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: some ways progressive. You know, to stand for something in

613
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: progressive politics, you're also sort of embracing a form of

614
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: that politics of division, because you know, it's an US

615
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 1: and against you know, in some form or another. And

616
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if that can successfully woo that center

617
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: right voter. Right that it's really the we used to

618
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 1: call it the managerial class, right, This where the white

619
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: collar workers, the ones that are homeowners, that were classically

620
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: sort of Eisenhower Republicans, you know, I think of the

621
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: happy days that used to be the first place where

622
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: you saw that the kids were for Stevenson and the

623
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: parents were for Eisenhower, that sort of mindset. So it is.

624
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: I So I do think there is that the it's

625
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: sort of the business class, right, the ones that want stability,

626
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 1: that's really what they're craving. Stability. It's why I think

627
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: some of these why Biden seems so appealing to this crowd, right?

628
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,479
Speaker 1: Do why John Kasick, John kay Sick, in some ways

629
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,760
Speaker 1: is probably the best avatar for the Republican you're asking

630
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: me about. He left the party, he supported Biden, and

631
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: he couldn't support him again. Right, He thought Biden was

632
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 1: going to be a consensus Democrat and instead Biden govern

633
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 1: more to the left, right, more progressive, sort of leaned

634
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: in on that end of the spectrum. And I do

635
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 1: think it turned off that group of Republicans. I don't

636
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: know where they went. Right. Some of them, I think

637
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 1: clearly voted for Trump more as an against vote. Some

638
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: of them may have voted third party, or some of

639
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 1: them may have skipped the ballot in the presidential a

640
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,439
Speaker 1: little bit. So I think we're going to the twenty

641
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 1: twenty eight primary could tell us something, right, I guess

642
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: the real question is if Trump is considered to be

643
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 1: a failed president, and to me, it'll be how what

644
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: does the economy look like in the fall of twenty

645
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: seven when the presidential campaign is starting to kick in.

646
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 1: Is his theory of the case right or wrong? Right?

647
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: Did the tariffs work or are they considered a spectacular failure?

648
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 1: And I think by the fall of twenty seven will

649
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: have a clear answer on this. And if it's a failure,

650
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: I think I think you will see this silent minority

651
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: of Republicans begin to speak up. But if it's seen

652
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: as semi successful, some of them may become like Marco

653
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 1: Rubio and just acquiesce and move closer into that direction. So,

654
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 1: like I said, the polling indicates if you look at

655
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 1: the primary season in twenty four, it's somewhere in the

656
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty five. You know, I think it's about

657
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: a third of the party that fits your definition there.

658
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 1: The question is whether they're in many cases they're the

659
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: donor class. That's the irony here, the big donor class.

660
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 1: I don't think they liked this economic model that Trump

661
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: is put together. Do they reassert them? So I think

662
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: if it's seen as a collective failure in a couple

663
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: of years, I think this this winging tries to reassert itself.

664
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: Next question comes from a Receives Pallo from three es Day, Italy.

665
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: Dear mister toddam an Italian engineer who has followed your

666
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: work since twenty eighteen, and I appreciate how you called

667
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: out health Secretary Kennedy and the Gang of ding Dong's

668
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: for undermining the US health system. We faced a similar

669
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 1: situation in Italy when two anti VAXX figures were appointed

670
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 1: to our National Vaccine Council, until public pressure forced their removal.

671
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: I've just finished Why the South Won the Civil War

672
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: by Heather Cox Richardson, and I was struck by the

673
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,280
Speaker 1: parallels between the oligarchs of eighteen sixty fighting to preserve

674
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: privilege in today's elites working to restore it, except now

675
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 1: the president seems aligned with them. My question is, have

676
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: you read the book and do you think history is

677
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 1: repeating itself in this way. I've not read that book,

678
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: and I actually I have a similar thesis, but it

679
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 1: isn't it's less. I mean, there was some of that.

680
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: I think it's I think the better comparison is really

681
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 1: twenty years later and sort of what we saw the

682
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: Republican Party of the late nineteenth century morph into, which

683
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 1: did into sort of the you know, where they sort

684
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: of align themselves with the industrialists if you will, And

685
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 1: you know, there was you could argue that in eighteen

686
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: sixty there were different you know, you had some that

687
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: were making a business case against slavery and some that

688
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,280
Speaker 1: were making a business case against disrupting the Southern economy,

689
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 1: which is one of the arguments that gets made about

690
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: that period of time. I think it's just a clearer contrast.

691
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: But you know, it's just all about what are you

692
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 1: Are you comparing it to the essentially the eighteen fifties,

693
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: or are you comparing it what I think we're sort

694
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,720
Speaker 1: of repeating, which is circa eighteen eighty to nineteen nineteen

695
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: twenty eight, right, which you know culminated with the Great Depression,

696
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 1: and that was a huge right and in that sense

697
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 1: you had the Republican Party of that era align itself

698
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: with the industrialists, and the protectionism was about protecting American

699
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 1: business because back then trade seemed common implicated and if anything,

700
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 1: we were always trying to protect our borders. It is

701
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: you know, today's big business would prefer to be global.

702
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: The industrialists of the eighteen nineties through the nineteen twenties

703
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: they wanted they didn't they didn't see any money to

704
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: be made overseas. They wanted to protect their investments here.

705
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 1: And so that's where I think the brologarchs and the

706
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: industrialists at that era sort of that that is where

707
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: the commonality is. So I don't, like I said, I

708
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 1: think there is. They definitely think that. I guess I'm

709
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 1: more of post Civil war. Our post civil war politics

710
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: is where what today feels like more so than the

711
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: pre Civil war politics. But you know, from sixty thousand feet,

712
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: her thesis and my thesis look more similar than different

713
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: on that, so I do need it to I've read

714
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: her columns on this, but I will She's not. She's

715
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: not the first one to sort of frame that, right.

716
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: You know, there's always been this idea that the South

717
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 1: lost on the battlefield but won the culture right, and

718
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: the longer we go right, they won the post war

719
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: with the with with all the rise of the anti

720
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: Bellum movement and all that business that they've they've done

721
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: a better. You know. It's sort of like the Russians,

722
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: right lost, the lost the Cold War, yet Putin has

723
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: done a better job spinning things on Russia's behalf sometimes

724
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 1: than the West has. And in this case, the South

725
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: has done a better job spinning things and winning the

726
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 1: culture even as they lost on the battlefield and lost

727
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: in the at the battot box for a time. Next

728
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: question comes from anonymous all Right, isn't anyone worried about

729
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 1: the fact that Trump might be trying to take over

730
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: the capital so that he can dictate the results of

731
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: the next presidential election. He tried to do the same

732
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 1: thing last time around, but the DC police stopped him.

733
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: With Republican States sending the National Guard into DC, it

734
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 1: would seem that the stage is being set for conflict

735
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 1: between the red and blue states. Well, I am as

736
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's a you can look at

737
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: things through one eye and say, Jesus, this is This

738
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: goes back to a bit of this the last question.

739
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,399
Speaker 1: This is the eighteen fifties, and we're on our way

740
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 1: to some sort of war between the states. Right. This

741
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 1: redistricting battle between Texas and California is a proxy. Right,

742
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: It's a war between the states. Right, The fight for

743
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 1: political power of the country is being waged state by state.

744
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: That's a similarity. That's a little bit uncomfortable think about.

745
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: Look at this point, I still believe in the will

746
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: of the voter to win out. But I do think

747
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 1: it's obvious that Donald Trump is not a constitutionalist, right.

748
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I'm of the if we're going

749
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 1: to sort ourselves right now, let's sort ourselves properly. Are

750
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: you a constantitutionalists or aren't you? You don't have to

751
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: be an ideological agreement on ideas on what to do

752
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: with the economy, what to do with healthcare, things like that,

753
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 1: to be on the same side when it comes to

754
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: the Constitution, and it's clear he doesn't believe in it,

755
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: he doesn't care about the separation of powers, that stuff.

756
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's frustrating to me when somebody

757
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 1: is in that high of elective office and probably has

758
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: never read a federalist paper. You know, I sort of

759
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: look at this, you know, I want somebody who wants

760
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 1: to be a senator or a member of Congress to

761
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 1: know more about this stuff than I do. And it

762
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 1: bugs the shit out of me when it's crystal clear

763
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: these people hold offices are that only exists because of

764
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,280
Speaker 1: the Constitution, and yet they've never bothered to read the history.

765
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 1: You know, when I join a company, I like to

766
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: know the history of the company. How did it become

767
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 1: what it is? Right? I like, you know it is.

768
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: It is startling to me how few, how few folks

769
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: really and truly understand right that the Constitution was a

770
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 1: compromise right, the entire country was formed. The Republic was

771
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: formed as a compromise because we didn't have consensus on

772
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 1: what kind of breakoff country we should be, so we

773
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: came up with the best way to create compromise anywhere

774
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 1: we could find it. And when you see, you know,

775
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 1: he just doesn't believe in these things, and so you know,

776
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: I'm concerned he could use he could sort of use

777
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: the will of the people in his head. You know, Hey,

778
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: this is what they wanted. So I'm gonna abide by

779
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 1: that as a way to break constitutional restrictions, like when

780
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 1: it comes to the vote count, running for a third term,

781
00:45:53,880 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 1: et cetera. I will say this, one of the reasons

782
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: I'm less worked up about Trump running a fourth time,

783
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: trying to get a third term, or whether he abides

784
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 1: by the elections or not, frankly, is is he doesn't

785
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: live a very healthy life. And he you know, I

786
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: don't think you know, I just don't think he's I

787
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be healthy enough to run

788
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: for president again. And I think that's going to get

789
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: clear and clear. All the time. We've seen some of

790
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: the some of the symptoms that he seems to have,

791
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: so he's he's going to have to. You know, Mother

792
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: Nature and Father Time are both undefeated on that front.

793
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 1: But you know, he certainly is feeling his oats and

794
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,280
Speaker 1: he is. There's no doubt that he has an information

795
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: feedback loop that is really warped that he doesn't sort

796
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: of understand how unpopular he actually is outside of his

797
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 1: group of folks. But you know, I understand. Here's the thing.

798
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 1: I always two years ago, I would have dismissed your

799
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: comment as alarmist, and I'm not going to do that now.

800
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 1: I just think we should be prepared for anything, and

801
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 1: we should be prepared for anything. I still have faith

802
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: in the American voter. I still have faith in over

803
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: time we're going to get it right, and that the

804
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 1: voter sentiment is going to win out, and that there

805
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: are there's still there's still a there's still some good

806
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: in Darth Vader, whoever you view as Darth Vader in

807
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 1: this moment. I'm going to leave it at that. On

808
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: that uplifting Darth Vader moment, Right, We've got to hope

809
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: that maybe Star Wars shows the way just a little bit,

810
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: just a little bit. There's always there's always someone who

811
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 1: can't who can't truly you know, somebody is going to

812
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 1: step up. I'll put it this way. It's something I

813
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 1: said to them. I've said to my own family members

814
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 1: over time. Be careful judging some people in the moment,

815
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: because you never know when one of these people you

816
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: don't like in the moment becomes the hero that stands

817
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: in the breach. Think Mike Pence January sixth, Think Liz Cheney,

818
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: I think John Bolton. These are people that I bet

819
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: you some of you listening to circa twenty sixteen didn't

820
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 1: have you didn't think much of them. What do you

821
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 1: think about those people today? There's you know, I still

822
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 1: think that that you sort of have to at the

823
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 1: end of the day. Right, Democracy only thrives if the

824
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 1: will of the people is respected and if the will

825
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: of the people is noticed. And I guess I'd like

826
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: to think that both of those things are still going

827
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: to be true with just enough people to keep us

828
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: from totally collapsing. But I can't dismiss your question and

829
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 1: your concern that I can. All right, for that, We'll

830
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 1: take a twenty for hour break until we upload again.