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Speaker 1: welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody.
Speaker 1: Hope all of you guys are having a great start
Speaker 1: to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference
Speaker 1: Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Speaker 1: I went back and forth on this series a half
Speaker 1: dozen times since last night, but I did find an
Speaker 1: answer I will be revealing at the tail end of
Speaker 1: the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine.
Speaker 1: We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some
Speaker 1: of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and
Speaker 1: then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and
Speaker 1: then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the
Speaker 1: joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight
Speaker 1: YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't
Speaker 1: misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we
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Speaker 1: helpful if you leave a rating in a review on
Speaker 1: that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media
Speaker 1: feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there.
Speaker 1: In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question
Speaker 1: so we can get to them throughout the remainder of
Speaker 1: the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to
Speaker 1: two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards
Speaker 1: the end of the year where the end of the
Speaker 1: bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed
Speaker 1: managed to come back from down like fourteen with three
Speaker 1: minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately
Speaker 1: Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that
Speaker 1: overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some
Speaker 1: big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense
Speaker 1: versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had
Speaker 1: a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at
Speaker 1: the rim got up in his face and was flexing
Speaker 1: on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: had taken control of until the final minutes, and it
Speaker 1: was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon
Speaker 1: that actually brought them back into it. So to two,
Speaker 1: but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played
Speaker 1: in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in
Speaker 1: one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one
Speaker 1: of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of
Speaker 1: the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So,
Speaker 1: as is always the case, I'm more looking into those
Speaker 1: games for just opportunities to see what it looks like
Speaker 1: when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the
Speaker 1: games where you see something that might be translatable. Not
Speaker 1: too much to take away. The metrics are just about
Speaker 1: as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen
Speaker 1: point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to
Speaker 1: fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage
Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of
Speaker 1: available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their
Speaker 1: own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from
Speaker 1: Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are
Speaker 1: provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus
Speaker 1: three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but
Speaker 1: I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy
Speaker 1: metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use.
Speaker 1: So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where
Speaker 1: by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team,
Speaker 1: They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City had a forty three point win and a thirty
Speaker 1: two point win in the series because there are a
Speaker 1: bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never
Speaker 1: gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and
Speaker 1: the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so
Speaker 1: to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of
Speaker 1: the way that these odds will come out. I think
Speaker 1: this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota
Speaker 1: side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in
Speaker 1: that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range.
Speaker 1: But you can get Minnesota right now to win the
Speaker 1: series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a
Speaker 1: good price for a team that absolutely has a good
Speaker 1: chance to win this series, even though we can all
Speaker 1: agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota.
Speaker 1: On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards.
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the
Speaker 1: regular season. They held him to twenty two points per
Speaker 1: game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty
Speaker 1: two two percent from three. They forced him into three
Speaker 1: point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average.
Speaker 1: It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex
Speaker 1: Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in
Speaker 1: particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games
Speaker 1: he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double
Speaker 1: teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and
Speaker 1: they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it
Speaker 1: without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch
Speaker 1: and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's
Speaker 1: got that unique combination of like the strength to hold
Speaker 1: up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat
Speaker 1: him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying,
Speaker 1: especially in their first game that they played this year,
Speaker 1: where he was just like getting physical with them off ball,
Speaker 1: just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding,
Speaker 1: and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat
Speaker 1: Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup
Speaker 1: than he did in his regular With his regular season
Speaker 1: average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended
Speaker 1: up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in
Speaker 1: this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on
Speaker 1: offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen
Speaker 1: or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: this year. I think he had a twenty seven point
Speaker 1: game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled,
Speaker 1: but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's
Speaker 1: just playing at a much higher level than he was
Speaker 1: when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I
Speaker 1: think it was like December in the game that he
Speaker 1: actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to,
Speaker 1: on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow,
Speaker 1: keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches.
Speaker 1: But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into
Speaker 1: ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay,
Speaker 1: and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and
Speaker 1: so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm
Speaker 1: and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what.
Speaker 1: But he also has to read the room and be like,
Speaker 1: this is a team that's got a million dudes who
Speaker 1: can defend guards and not a lot of guys who
Speaker 1: can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job
Speaker 1: to make sure as the point guard, or as the
Speaker 1: on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs.
Speaker 1: And one of the things we've talked about a lot
Speaker 1: over the course of this playoff run is I kind
Speaker 1: of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old
Speaker 1: school two guard anyway, and so I want to see
Speaker 1: the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for
Speaker 1: him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For
Speaker 1: guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next
Speaker 1: challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought
Speaker 1: Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced,
Speaker 1: just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of
Speaker 1: a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior,
Speaker 1: but also rim protection with in terms of like real
Speaker 1: vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and
Speaker 1: he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector,
Speaker 1: if that makes sense. And past that test and his
Speaker 1: last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points,
Speaker 1: five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the
Speaker 1: field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City defense is gonna present kind of the best of
Speaker 1: both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden
Speaker 1: State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys,
Speaker 1: but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big
Speaker 1: difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of
Speaker 1: guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be
Speaker 1: less of a factor here, But I think just in
Speaker 1: terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see,
Speaker 1: he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him.
Speaker 1: So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly
Speaker 1: handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in
Speaker 1: his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build
Speaker 1: for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to
Speaker 1: hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots.
Speaker 1: JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in
Speaker 1: three of the four matchups this year, but in the
Speaker 1: one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well.
Speaker 1: Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength
Speaker 1: by beating him to spots and had the length to
Speaker 1: kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall
Speaker 1: exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on
Speaker 1: Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying
Speaker 1: to go through j dub In not having any success
Speaker 1: because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again,
Speaker 1: Julius is playing at a much higher level now than
Speaker 1: he was back when that game took place. Julius is
Speaker 1: going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout
Speaker 1: this series, and so they're gonna need him to be
Speaker 1: great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things
Speaker 1: I want to keep an eye on in this series.
Speaker 1: I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording.
Speaker 1: This was one of the big swing factors for me.
Speaker 1: I can't get out of my head the problem that
Speaker 1: Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch
Speaker 1: in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting.
Speaker 1: And this is going to be a series where I
Speaker 1: think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos
Speaker 1: and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius,
Speaker 1: and I think we could see a lot of that
Speaker 1: similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting,
Speaker 1: three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they
Speaker 1: can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers
Speaker 1: when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches.
Speaker 1: So let's keep an eye on that in this series.
Speaker 1: Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the
Speaker 1: ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think
Speaker 1: we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low
Speaker 1: usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about
Speaker 1: five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes,
Speaker 1: but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession.
Speaker 1: He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots
Speaker 1: in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters,
Speaker 1: So not too much to worry about on ball in
Speaker 1: terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a
Speaker 1: good amount of damage off ball as like a transition
Speaker 1: scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty
Speaker 1: one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a
Speaker 1: good job of tracking it when he's in his help
Speaker 1: and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an
Speaker 1: offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have
Speaker 1: to be a little attentive to him crashing out of
Speaker 1: the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada
Speaker 1: McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to
Speaker 1: be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive
Speaker 1: player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter,
Speaker 1: active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent
Speaker 1: on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had
Speaker 1: a thirty point game and a twenty five point game
Speaker 1: just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where
Speaker 1: he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet
Speaker 1: will be to be that effective kind of roam or
Speaker 1: just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him
Speaker 1: get free runways to the basket over and over again,
Speaker 1: he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert.
Speaker 1: Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year.
Speaker 1: He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He
Speaker 1: had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert
Speaker 1: performance and that he makes some so much easier to
Speaker 1: guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems
Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein
Speaker 1: will be playing up off of him in ball screens,
Speaker 1: up high in pick and roll. That was something we
Speaker 1: talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the
Speaker 1: level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry
Speaker 1: about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat.
Speaker 1: He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the
Speaker 1: regular season in their one game, he did just get
Speaker 1: two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good
Speaker 1: job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but
Speaker 1: I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to
Speaker 1: kind of have their roles minimized over the course of
Speaker 1: this series as both teams lean more into Chet and
Speaker 1: nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in
Speaker 1: a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a
Speaker 1: ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't
Speaker 1: involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are
Speaker 1: both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason.
Speaker 1: Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante
Speaker 1: and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me,
Speaker 1: Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in
Speaker 1: the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again,
Speaker 1: closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante
Speaker 1: alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down
Speaker 1: to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before,
Speaker 1: nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup
Speaker 1: in the regular season. He can beat nail help with
Speaker 1: above the break shooting. This was a big thing with
Speaker 1: Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops
Speaker 1: or against switches when they are just digging down off
Speaker 1: the nail. He can get a clean look from like
Speaker 1: twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz
Speaker 1: can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over
Speaker 1: the top of contests, that's going to be a big
Speaker 1: factor in this series. And then he just has a
Speaker 1: lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they
Speaker 1: go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the
Speaker 1: course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive
Speaker 1: responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches.
Speaker 1: So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X
Speaker 1: factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on
Speaker 1: the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is
Speaker 1: eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent,
Speaker 1: But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if
Speaker 1: you chase him off the line in a spot up situation,
Speaker 1: he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's
Speaker 1: driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball,
Speaker 1: chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then
Speaker 1: attacking him on defense in space to see if he
Speaker 1: can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very
Speaker 1: effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times
Speaker 1: guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will
Speaker 1: be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in
Speaker 1: this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but
Speaker 1: they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I
Speaker 1: actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and
Speaker 1: we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength
Speaker 1: for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the
Speaker 1: defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot
Speaker 1: of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular,
Speaker 1: has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against
Speaker 1: OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in
Speaker 1: the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a
Speaker 1: crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at
Speaker 1: one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense,
Speaker 1: pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their
Speaker 1: post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those
Speaker 1: post entries could be the entryway to them getting out
Speaker 1: in transition against this team. So that's going to be
Speaker 1: the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages,
Speaker 1: make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius
Speaker 1: and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling.
Speaker 1: That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game,
Speaker 1: as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got
Speaker 1: to create a clear passing window and then from there
Speaker 1: play out of those advantages. I would love to see
Speaker 1: Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series,
Speaker 1: and then as a group, and this goes for both teams.
Speaker 1: He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes.
Speaker 1: That's going to be a big swing in this series,
Speaker 1: all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the
Speaker 1: matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely
Speaker 1: fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He
Speaker 1: had thirty seven or more and three of the four
Speaker 1: matchups really had the three point shot going. He was
Speaker 1: able to get in the lane and draw fouls an
Speaker 1: absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in
Speaker 1: this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to
Speaker 1: do better than he did. He's got the length and
Speaker 1: quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of
Speaker 1: it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they
Speaker 1: were picking him up further out, Very different than the
Speaker 1: Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off
Speaker 1: of him and containing and trying to bait him into
Speaker 1: taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring
Speaker 1: him and he was just going right around the first
Speaker 1: guy and kind of getting a head of steam into
Speaker 1: the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul
Speaker 1: after foul. I would like to see, I know this
Speaker 1: kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I
Speaker 1: would like to see at least at some point an
Speaker 1: attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and
Speaker 1: contest style of defense against meaning like give him more
Speaker 1: space play in that kind of like range where he
Speaker 1: can contain the drive but get a late contest on
Speaker 1: a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that
Speaker 1: easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that
Speaker 1: he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little
Speaker 1: worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just
Speaker 1: because that's who they are as a basketball team. We
Speaker 1: will see, but once again, it'll be a team job.
Speaker 1: I think the Keel will get a lot of reps
Speaker 1: in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking
Speaker 1: the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot
Speaker 1: the ball very well from three in this matchup. He
Speaker 1: made ten threes in the four games on over fifty
Speaker 1: percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb.
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's
Speaker 1: gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency
Speaker 1: over the years has been to die on screens from
Speaker 1: time to time when he gets tired, So I think
Speaker 1: it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves
Speaker 1: will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all
Speaker 1: the way to paint that often, or all the way
Speaker 1: into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's
Speaker 1: back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities
Speaker 1: if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make
Speaker 1: shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as
Speaker 1: Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent
Speaker 1: from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty
Speaker 1: nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero
Speaker 1: eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range
Speaker 1: game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like
Speaker 1: I could see him getting a lot of looks against
Speaker 1: drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant
Speaker 1: struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that.
Speaker 1: Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after
Speaker 1: helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for
Speaker 1: Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes,
Speaker 1: twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta
Speaker 1: get good close outs and then keeping him off the
Speaker 1: offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven,
Speaker 1: but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because
Speaker 1: it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with
Speaker 1: Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking
Speaker 1: up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives
Speaker 1: him a free license to crash towards the front of
Speaker 1: the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the
Speaker 1: ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna
Speaker 1: be about putting his body in front of him, you know,
Speaker 1: and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can
Speaker 1: get and then getting a good close out. I actually
Speaker 1: like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting,
Speaker 1: because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm
Speaker 1: a little worried about him getting beat up on the
Speaker 1: offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think
Speaker 1: we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well,
Speaker 1: especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize,
Speaker 1: it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet
Speaker 1: has been below a point per shot on catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six
Speaker 1: for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think
Speaker 1: both guys will be able to help in the lane.
Speaker 1: They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts,
Speaker 1: be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna
Speaker 1: be off ball, he better be helping. And then on
Speaker 1: Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with
Speaker 1: their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there
Speaker 1: on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep
Speaker 1: getting good luck, the good looks that he got in
Speaker 1: the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series.
Speaker 1: So Check can swing this series in a big way
Speaker 1: if he just hits the shots that he's been missing
Speaker 1: so far in this postseason and then go go Bar
Speaker 1: and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we
Speaker 1: saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end
Speaker 1: of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at
Speaker 1: Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low,
Speaker 1: or if you get a good contest off a high like,
Speaker 1: you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super
Speaker 1: interesting in that series because so many teams over the
Speaker 1: course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh,
Speaker 1: if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take
Speaker 1: his floater, and it would just go in over and
Speaker 1: over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy
Speaker 1: I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot
Speaker 1: the floater, and he forced him into a lot of
Speaker 1: misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could
Speaker 1: take a note from that, especially with his longer arms
Speaker 1: and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters.
Speaker 1: But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of
Speaker 1: these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into
Speaker 1: Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just
Speaker 1: because of Jokic and the need they had to match
Speaker 1: up with his size and strength. I could see him
Speaker 1: going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare
Speaker 1: for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if we looked back on this series in
Speaker 1: both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game.
Speaker 1: I think that's something to keep an eye on as
Speaker 1: we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench
Speaker 1: kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been
Speaker 1: their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters,
Speaker 1: like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games
Speaker 1: in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So
Speaker 1: those are guys who are going to have to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on
Speaker 1: like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again,
Speaker 1: I went back and forth on this one a bunch
Speaker 1: of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was
Speaker 1: the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because
Speaker 1: I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive
Speaker 1: players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had.
Speaker 1: But I could very easily say the exact same thing
Speaker 1: about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys
Speaker 1: are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't
Speaker 1: score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my
Speaker 1: mind was a lot of what I saw in Game
Speaker 1: seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily
Speaker 1: on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree,
Speaker 1: the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession,
Speaker 1: for every single inch, for simple things like post entries,
Speaker 1: just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's
Speaker 1: picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession,
Speaker 1: and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout
Speaker 1: the other way, these are the two top teams in
Speaker 1: the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota
Speaker 1: is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging
Speaker 1: eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the
Speaker 1: two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams
Speaker 1: in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two
Speaker 1: defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill
Speaker 1: and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in.
Speaker 1: So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in
Speaker 1: six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series.
Speaker 1: I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages,
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting
Speaker 1: those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that
Speaker 1: actually ends up working out in their favor. And I
Speaker 1: just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and
Speaker 1: dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage
Speaker 1: for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I
Speaker 1: absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're
Speaker 1: the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's
Speaker 1: a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about
Speaker 1: playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and
Speaker 1: as a playmaker in the series. If he does that,
Speaker 1: that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get
Speaker 1: the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and
Speaker 1: they do score effectively and draw two to the ball
Speaker 1: and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball
Speaker 1: over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in
Speaker 1: offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas
Speaker 1: and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City's role players that could play a role. And then again,
Speaker 1: even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good
Speaker 1: as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better
Speaker 1: than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could
Speaker 1: potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense.
Speaker 1: Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance,
Speaker 1: ended up being a series that ended up being a
Speaker 1: game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a
Speaker 1: little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because
Speaker 1: they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism
Speaker 1: by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I
Speaker 1: don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much
Speaker 1: in this series at all. Both of these teams are
Speaker 1: super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be
Speaker 1: comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think
Speaker 1: even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the
Speaker 1: same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers
Speaker 1: stole Game one in New York, where I think home
Speaker 1: court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so
Speaker 1: keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is
Speaker 1: the steel Game one. I think they have a good
Speaker 1: chance to steal Game one because of the shock and
Speaker 1: awe value of their defense. But over the course of
Speaker 1: the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and
Speaker 1: I think they have the better defense, and I think
Speaker 1: it's enough of an advantage to make up for the
Speaker 1: experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys,
Speaker 1: that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
Speaker 1: As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone
Speaker 1: enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously,
Speaker 1: but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer
Speaker 1: of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube,
Speaker 1: you know, for a half hour or so, and then
Speaker 1: after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot
Speaker 1: tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get
Speaker 1: informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan
Speaker 1: for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then.
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