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Speaker 1: welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody.

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Speaker 1: Hope all of you guys are having a great start

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Speaker 1: to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference

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Speaker 1: Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

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Speaker 1: I went back and forth on this series a half

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Speaker 1: dozen times since last night, but I did find an

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Speaker 1: answer I will be revealing at the tail end of

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Speaker 1: the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine.

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Speaker 1: We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some

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Speaker 1: of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the

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Speaker 1: joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight

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Speaker 1: YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't

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Speaker 1: misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we

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Speaker 1: get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super

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Speaker 1: helpful if you leave a rating in a review on

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Speaker 1: that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media

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Speaker 1: feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there.

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Speaker 1: In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question

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Speaker 1: so we can get to them throughout the remainder of

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Speaker 1: the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to

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Speaker 1: two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards

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Speaker 1: the end of the year where the end of the

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Speaker 1: bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed

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Speaker 1: managed to come back from down like fourteen with three

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Speaker 1: minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately

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Speaker 1: Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that

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Speaker 1: overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some

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Speaker 1: big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense

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Speaker 1: versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had

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Speaker 1: a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at

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Speaker 1: the rim got up in his face and was flexing

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Speaker 1: on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: had taken control of until the final minutes, and it

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Speaker 1: was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon

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Speaker 1: that actually brought them back into it. So to two,

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Speaker 1: but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played

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Speaker 1: in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in

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Speaker 1: one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one

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Speaker 1: of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of

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Speaker 1: the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So,

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Speaker 1: as is always the case, I'm more looking into those

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Speaker 1: games for just opportunities to see what it looks like

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Speaker 1: when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the

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Speaker 1: games where you see something that might be translatable. Not

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Speaker 1: too much to take away. The metrics are just about

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Speaker 1: as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen

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Speaker 1: point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to

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Speaker 1: fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage

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Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of

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Speaker 1: available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their

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Speaker 1: own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from

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Speaker 1: Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are

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Speaker 1: provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus

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Speaker 1: three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but

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Speaker 1: I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy

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Speaker 1: metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use.

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Speaker 1: So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where

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Speaker 1: by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team,

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: City had a forty three point win and a thirty

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Speaker 1: two point win in the series because there are a

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Speaker 1: bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never

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Speaker 1: gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and

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Speaker 1: the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so

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Speaker 1: to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of

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Speaker 1: the way that these odds will come out. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota

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Speaker 1: side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in

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Speaker 1: that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range.

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Speaker 1: But you can get Minnesota right now to win the

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Speaker 1: series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: good price for a team that absolutely has a good

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Speaker 1: chance to win this series, even though we can all

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Speaker 1: agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the

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Speaker 1: regular season. They held him to twenty two points per

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Speaker 1: game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty

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Speaker 1: two two percent from three. They forced him into three

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Speaker 1: point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average.

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Speaker 1: It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex

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Speaker 1: Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in

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Speaker 1: particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games

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Speaker 1: he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double

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Speaker 1: teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and

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Speaker 1: they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it

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Speaker 1: without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch

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Speaker 1: and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's

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Speaker 1: got that unique combination of like the strength to hold

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Speaker 1: up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat

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Speaker 1: him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying,

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Speaker 1: especially in their first game that they played this year,

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Speaker 1: where he was just like getting physical with them off ball,

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Speaker 1: just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding,

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Speaker 1: and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat

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Speaker 1: Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup

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Speaker 1: than he did in his regular With his regular season

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Speaker 1: average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended

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Speaker 1: up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in

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Speaker 1: this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on

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Speaker 1: offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen

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Speaker 1: or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: this year. I think he had a twenty seven point

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Speaker 1: game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled,

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Speaker 1: but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's

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Speaker 1: just playing at a much higher level than he was

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Speaker 1: when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I

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Speaker 1: think it was like December in the game that he

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Speaker 1: actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to,

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Speaker 1: on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow,

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Speaker 1: keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches.

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Speaker 1: But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into

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Speaker 1: ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay,

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Speaker 1: and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and

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Speaker 1: so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm

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Speaker 1: and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what.

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Speaker 1: But he also has to read the room and be like,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that's got a million dudes who

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Speaker 1: can defend guards and not a lot of guys who

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Speaker 1: can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job

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Speaker 1: to make sure as the point guard, or as the

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Speaker 1: on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs.

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Speaker 1: And one of the things we've talked about a lot

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Speaker 1: over the course of this playoff run is I kind

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Speaker 1: of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old

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Speaker 1: school two guard anyway, and so I want to see

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Speaker 1: the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for

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Speaker 1: him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For

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Speaker 1: guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next

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Speaker 1: challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought

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Speaker 1: Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced,

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Speaker 1: just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of

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Speaker 1: a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior,

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Speaker 1: but also rim protection with in terms of like real

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Speaker 1: vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and

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Speaker 1: he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector,

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Speaker 1: if that makes sense. And past that test and his

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Speaker 1: last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points,

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Speaker 1: five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the

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Speaker 1: field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: City defense is gonna present kind of the best of

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Speaker 1: both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of

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Speaker 1: the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden

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Speaker 1: State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys,

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Speaker 1: but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big

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Speaker 1: difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of

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Speaker 1: guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: less of a factor here, But I think just in

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Speaker 1: terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see,

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Speaker 1: he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly

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Speaker 1: handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in

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Speaker 1: his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build

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Speaker 1: for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to

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Speaker 1: hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots.

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Speaker 1: JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in

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Speaker 1: three of the four matchups this year, but in the

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Speaker 1: one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well.

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Speaker 1: Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength

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Speaker 1: by beating him to spots and had the length to

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Speaker 1: kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall

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Speaker 1: exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on

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Speaker 1: Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying

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Speaker 1: to go through j dub In not having any success

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Speaker 1: because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again,

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Speaker 1: Julius is playing at a much higher level now than

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Speaker 1: he was back when that game took place. Julius is

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Speaker 1: going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout

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Speaker 1: this series, and so they're gonna need him to be

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Speaker 1: great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things

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Speaker 1: I want to keep an eye on in this series.

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Speaker 1: I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording.

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Speaker 1: This was one of the big swing factors for me.

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Speaker 1: I can't get out of my head the problem that

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Speaker 1: Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch

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Speaker 1: in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting.

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Speaker 1: And this is going to be a series where I

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Speaker 1: think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius,

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Speaker 1: and I think we could see a lot of that

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Speaker 1: similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting,

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Speaker 1: three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they

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Speaker 1: can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers

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Speaker 1: when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches.

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Speaker 1: So let's keep an eye on that in this series.

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Speaker 1: Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the

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Speaker 1: ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low

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Speaker 1: usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about

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Speaker 1: five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes,

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Speaker 1: but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession.

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Speaker 1: He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots

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Speaker 1: in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters,

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Speaker 1: So not too much to worry about on ball in

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Speaker 1: terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a

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Speaker 1: good amount of damage off ball as like a transition

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Speaker 1: scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty

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Speaker 1: one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a

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Speaker 1: good job of tracking it when he's in his help

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Speaker 1: and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an

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Speaker 1: offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two

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Speaker 1: offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have

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Speaker 1: to be a little attentive to him crashing out of

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Speaker 1: the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada

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Speaker 1: McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to

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Speaker 1: be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive

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Speaker 1: player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter,

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Speaker 1: active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent

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Speaker 1: on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had

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Speaker 1: a thirty point game and a twenty five point game

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Speaker 1: just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where

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Speaker 1: he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet

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Speaker 1: will be to be that effective kind of roam or

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Speaker 1: just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him

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Speaker 1: get free runways to the basket over and over again,

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Speaker 1: he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert.

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Speaker 1: Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year.

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Speaker 1: He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He

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Speaker 1: had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert

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Speaker 1: performance and that he makes some so much easier to

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Speaker 1: guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein

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Speaker 1: will be playing up off of him in ball screens,

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Speaker 1: up high in pick and roll. That was something we

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Speaker 1: talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the

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Speaker 1: level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry

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Speaker 1: about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat.

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Speaker 1: He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the

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Speaker 1: regular season in their one game, he did just get

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Speaker 1: two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good

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Speaker 1: job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but

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Speaker 1: I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to

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Speaker 1: kind of have their roles minimized over the course of

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Speaker 1: this series as both teams lean more into Chet and

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Speaker 1: nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in

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Speaker 1: a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a

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Speaker 1: ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't

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Speaker 1: involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are

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Speaker 1: both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason.

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Speaker 1: Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante

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Speaker 1: and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me,

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Speaker 1: Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in

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Speaker 1: the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again,

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Speaker 1: closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante

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Speaker 1: alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down

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Speaker 1: to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before,

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Speaker 1: nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup

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Speaker 1: in the regular season. He can beat nail help with

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Speaker 1: above the break shooting. This was a big thing with

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Speaker 1: Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops

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Speaker 1: or against switches when they are just digging down off

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Speaker 1: the nail. He can get a clean look from like

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Speaker 1: twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing.

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Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz

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Speaker 1: can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over

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Speaker 1: the top of contests, that's going to be a big

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Speaker 1: factor in this series. And then he just has a

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Speaker 1: lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they

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Speaker 1: go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the

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Speaker 1: course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive

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Speaker 1: responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches.

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Speaker 1: So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X

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Speaker 1: factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on

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Speaker 1: the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is

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Speaker 1: eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent,

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Speaker 1: But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if

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Speaker 1: you chase him off the line in a spot up situation,

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Speaker 1: he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's

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Speaker 1: driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball,

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Speaker 1: chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then

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Speaker 1: attacking him on defense in space to see if he

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Speaker 1: can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very

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Speaker 1: effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times

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Speaker 1: guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will

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Speaker 1: be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in

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Speaker 1: this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but

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Speaker 1: they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I

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Speaker 1: actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and

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Speaker 1: we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength

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Speaker 1: for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the

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Speaker 1: defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot

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Speaker 1: of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular,

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Speaker 1: has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against

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Speaker 1: OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in

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Speaker 1: the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a

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Speaker 1: crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at

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Speaker 1: one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense,

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Speaker 1: pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their

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Speaker 1: post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those

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Speaker 1: post entries could be the entryway to them getting out

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Speaker 1: in transition against this team. So that's going to be

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Speaker 1: the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages,

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Speaker 1: make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius

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Speaker 1: and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling.

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Speaker 1: That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game,

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Speaker 1: as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got

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Speaker 1: to create a clear passing window and then from there

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Speaker 1: play out of those advantages. I would love to see

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Speaker 1: Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series,

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Speaker 1: and then as a group, and this goes for both teams.

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Speaker 1: He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes.

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Speaker 1: That's going to be a big swing in this series,

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Speaker 1: all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the

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Speaker 1: matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely

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Speaker 1: fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He

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Speaker 1: had thirty seven or more and three of the four

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Speaker 1: matchups really had the three point shot going. He was

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Speaker 1: able to get in the lane and draw fouls an

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Speaker 1: absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in

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Speaker 1: this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to

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Speaker 1: do better than he did. He's got the length and

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Speaker 1: quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of

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Speaker 1: it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they

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Speaker 1: were picking him up further out, Very different than the

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Speaker 1: Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off

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Speaker 1: of him and containing and trying to bait him into

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Speaker 1: taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring

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Speaker 1: him and he was just going right around the first

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Speaker 1: guy and kind of getting a head of steam into

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Speaker 1: the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul

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Speaker 1: after foul. I would like to see, I know this

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Speaker 1: kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I

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Speaker 1: would like to see at least at some point an

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Speaker 1: attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and

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Speaker 1: contest style of defense against meaning like give him more

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Speaker 1: space play in that kind of like range where he

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Speaker 1: can contain the drive but get a late contest on

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Speaker 1: a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that

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Speaker 1: easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that

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Speaker 1: he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little

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Speaker 1: worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just

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Speaker 1: because that's who they are as a basketball team. We

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Speaker 1: will see, but once again, it'll be a team job.

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Speaker 1: I think the Keel will get a lot of reps

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Speaker 1: in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking

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Speaker 1: the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot

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Speaker 1: the ball very well from three in this matchup. He

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Speaker 1: made ten threes in the four games on over fifty

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Speaker 1: percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's

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Speaker 1: gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency

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Speaker 1: over the years has been to die on screens from

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Speaker 1: time to time when he gets tired, So I think

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Speaker 1: it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves

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Speaker 1: will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all

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Speaker 1: the way to paint that often, or all the way

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Speaker 1: into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's

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Speaker 1: back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities

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Speaker 1: if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make

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Speaker 1: shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as

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Speaker 1: Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty

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Speaker 1: nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero

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Speaker 1: eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range

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Speaker 1: game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like

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Speaker 1: I could see him getting a lot of looks against

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Speaker 1: drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant

401
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Speaker 1: struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that.

402
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after

403
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Speaker 1: helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for

404
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 1: Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes,

405
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Speaker 1: twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta

406
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Speaker 1: get good close outs and then keeping him off the

407
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Speaker 1: offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven,

408
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Speaker 1: but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because

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Speaker 1: it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with

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Speaker 1: Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking

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Speaker 1: up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives

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Speaker 1: him a free license to crash towards the front of

413
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Speaker 1: the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the

414
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 1: ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna

415
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Speaker 1: be about putting his body in front of him, you know,

416
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 1: and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can

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Speaker 1: get and then getting a good close out. I actually

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Speaker 1: like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting,

419
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Speaker 1: because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm

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Speaker 1: a little worried about him getting beat up on the

421
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Speaker 1: offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well,

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Speaker 1: especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize,

424
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet

425
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: has been below a point per shot on catch and

426
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Speaker 1: shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six

427
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Speaker 1: for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think

428
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 1: both guys will be able to help in the lane.

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Speaker 1: They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts,

430
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna

431
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: be off ball, he better be helping. And then on

432
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 1: Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with

433
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there

434
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep

435
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: getting good luck, the good looks that he got in

436
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 1: the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series.

437
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 1: So Check can swing this series in a big way

438
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,920
Speaker 1: if he just hits the shots that he's been missing

439
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 1: so far in this postseason and then go go Bar

440
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 1: and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we

441
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 1: saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end

442
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 1: of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at

443
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 1: Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low,

444
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 1: or if you get a good contest off a high like,

445
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super

446
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: interesting in that series because so many teams over the

447
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh,

448
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take

449
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: his floater, and it would just go in over and

450
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 1: over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy

451
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 1: I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot

452
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: the floater, and he forced him into a lot of

453
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could

454
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 1: take a note from that, especially with his longer arms

455
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 1: and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters.

456
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of

457
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 1: these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into

458
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just

459
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 1: because of Jokic and the need they had to match

460
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 1: up with his size and strength. I could see him

461
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 1: going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare

462
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't

463
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: be surprised if we looked back on this series in

464
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game.

465
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,239
Speaker 1: I think that's something to keep an eye on as

466
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench

467
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been

468
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters,

469
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 1: like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs.

470
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games

471
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So

472
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: those are guys who are going to have to keep

473
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on

474
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again,

475
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 1: I went back and forth on this one a bunch

476
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was

477
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 1: the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because

478
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive

479
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had.

480
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: But I could very easily say the exact same thing

481
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys

482
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't

483
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my

484
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 1: mind was a lot of what I saw in Game

485
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,239
Speaker 1: seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in

486
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think

487
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily

488
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree,

489
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession,

490
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: for every single inch, for simple things like post entries,

491
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's

492
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 1: picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession,

493
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 1: and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout

494
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: the other way, these are the two top teams in

495
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota

496
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 1: is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging

497
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 1: eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the

498
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 1: two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams

499
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two

500
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill

501
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in.

502
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in

503
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series.

504
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages,

505
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting

506
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 1: those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that

507
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: actually ends up working out in their favor. And I

508
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 1: just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and

509
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage

510
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,199
Speaker 1: for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I

511
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 1: absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're

512
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's

513
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about

514
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and

515
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: as a playmaker in the series. If he does that,

516
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 1: that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get

517
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and

518
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: they do score effectively and draw two to the ball

519
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball

520
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in

521
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 1: offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas

522
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma

523
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: City's role players that could play a role. And then again,

524
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good

525
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better

526
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 1: than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could

527
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,959
Speaker 1: potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense.

528
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance,

529
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: ended up being a series that ended up being a

530
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 1: game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a

531
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 1: little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because

532
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 1: they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism

533
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I

534
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 1: don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much

535
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 1: in this series at all. Both of these teams are

536
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be

537
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 1: comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think

538
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the

539
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers

540
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: stole Game one in New York, where I think home

541
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so

542
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 1: keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is

543
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: the steel Game one. I think they have a good

544
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: chance to steal Game one because of the shock and

545
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: awe value of their defense. But over the course of

546
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 1: the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and

547
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 1: I think they have the better defense, and I think

548
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: it's enough of an advantage to make up for the

549
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys,

550
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 1: that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely

551
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.

552
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone

553
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously,

554
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 1: but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer

555
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube,

556
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: you know, for a half hour or so, and then

557
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot

558
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get

559
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all

560
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan

561
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then.

562
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 1: What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening

563
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really

564
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second

565
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: and leave a rating and a review. As always, I

566
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take

567
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume.

568
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: It's a great time of year to get out and

569
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 1: see some of these live events. We've got concerts and

570
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: comedy shows all over the country. I got out to

571
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 1: the Sphere for a three night set to see Dead

572
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: in Company last month. The NBA Playoffs are in full swing,

573
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 1: lots of good games to see there. The Major League

574
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: Baseball season is underway, and this is why I want

575
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,040
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