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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're talking politics here in Washington. We will get back

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Speaker 2: to trolley a bit later on here. Not the most

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Speaker 2: inspired session, but then again, we broke through some tough

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Speaker 2: technical levels on Friday, and we'll keep tabs on this.

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Speaker 2: It is a tough headline to wake up to today

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Speaker 2: that the markets are back to where they were the

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Speaker 2: day before the election. But maybe that's because we're waiting

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Speaker 2: for news. Isn't that the point here? And we're going

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Speaker 2: to have a lot of news, by the way, not

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Speaker 2: only in the next twenty four hours here as lawmakers

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Speaker 2: get back to town, but also from the White House

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Speaker 2: as we cover both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. It's the

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Speaker 2: big farewell tour this week. It starts today Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: two pm Eastern, a foreign policy address at the State Department.

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Speaker 2: You'll of course be hearing about that here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: The big one though, is Wednesday night. That's the actual

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Speaker 2: farewell address, as it's being billed by the White House

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Speaker 2: Primetime Oval Office. They're treating it like it's the real thing.

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Speaker 2: And then he'll continue at Department of Defense Thursday, and

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Speaker 2: we'll speak to mayors on Friday. And of course we're

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Speaker 2: all winding up to the big inauguration here. It's the

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Speaker 2: thirteenth of January. We're almost there. Not that lawmakers are waiting.

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Speaker 2: They were meeting with Donald Trump over the weekend on

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Speaker 2: the patio at Mar A Lago. We talked to many

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Speaker 2: of them leading up to these meetings last week, the

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Speaker 2: different factions with different priorities, and still some questions when

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Speaker 2: it comes to sequencing.

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Speaker 3: By the way, you.

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Speaker 2: Might be reassured to know the House Ways and Means

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Speaker 2: Committee is actually holding its first hearing on making the

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Speaker 2: Trump tax cuts permanent. So, as I said at the outset,

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Speaker 2: the gears are turning. The question is exactly what will

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Speaker 2: be the approach. That's why we wanted to talk to

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Speaker 2: Grover Norquist, of course a long time hand in this conversation.

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Speaker 2: We're about to have it all over again with making

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Speaker 2: the Trump tax cuts permanent, and mister Norquist is already

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Speaker 2: talking about it from his perch at Americans for Tax Reform,

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Speaker 2: roughly two blocks from where we sit here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Welcome.

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Speaker 2: It's good to see you here in Washingtonuely, you are

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Speaker 2: writing in an opbed that I caught in the Las

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Speaker 2: Vegas Review Journal. Unleashing growth is the headline, and you're

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Speaker 2: pretty blunt about this. I don't know if you're having

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Speaker 2: conversations like these with lawmakers and what their reaction is,

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Speaker 2: but you say two things very clearly off the top.

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Speaker 2: To delay the tax cut is to kill.

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Speaker 3: The tax cut.

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Speaker 2: But more than that, if Republicans delay the Trump tax cuts,

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Speaker 2: you say, they will lose the House. This window will

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Speaker 2: be open for how long.

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Speaker 4: We really need to move and get something in the

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Speaker 4: next four months. And you need to date when the

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Speaker 4: tax cut continuation begins to January first of this year.

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Speaker 4: And we've had two times this is not work. One

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Speaker 4: was Trump's first presidency, which is why he and the

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Speaker 4: Republicans who were here in twenty seventeen. That bill was

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Speaker 4: discussed for a year. It didn't pass until December twenty

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Speaker 4: second of twenty seventeen. It didn't take effect until January first,

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Speaker 4: and twenty eighteen, and then there was strong growth, very

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Speaker 4: strong economic growth in twenty nineteen. But in twenty eighteen

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Speaker 4: the Republicans lost forty House seats and control of.

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Speaker 3: The House because of the lagged effect in that coal process.

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Speaker 4: Well, if you're a small businessman or a large business

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Speaker 4: and you're trying to decide, do we build another building,

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Speaker 4: do we build another factory, do we hire one more

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Speaker 4: person or ten more people, do we get a second truck?

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Speaker 4: You know, just small decisions that add up. Well, if

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Speaker 4: I don't know what's happening to expensing, I think, oh wait,

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Speaker 4: because spencing expensing has been weakening, And unless I know

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Speaker 4: that it kicks in this year January of twenty five,

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Speaker 4: why would I make a decision. Why would I do

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Speaker 4: it now instead of waiting until later. So the delay

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Speaker 4: means any strengthening of the economy would show up much

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Speaker 4: too late to help in the election in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: It also comes to just certainty, right confidence. To your point,

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Speaker 2: you're talking about business owners. We talk about that a

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Speaker 2: lot here too.

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Speaker 3: It's bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: We also talk about people simply making investment decisions. This

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Speaker 2: market starting to teeter a little bit was a rocket

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Speaker 2: ship the day after the election, and some folks do

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Speaker 2: point to uncertain year when it comes to policy. You've

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Speaker 2: got a debt sealing matter hanging out there, you've got

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, and we don't even have a funding mechanism

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Speaker 2: for the government beyond March. So when lawmakers dig in

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Speaker 2: here president will be in office in just days.

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Speaker 3: What should be the sequence and how do they get

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Speaker 3: to this?

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Speaker 2: I want to deal with border policy, you want to

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Speaker 2: deal with tax cuts out of the gate?

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Speaker 3: Is it one bill?

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Speaker 4: It will be one bill, and the path to getting

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Speaker 4: to one bill it was always obvious that it had

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Speaker 4: to be one built Two bills is much too confusing

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Speaker 4: and everyone would sit there wanting to jump onto Bill

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Speaker 4: number one. Okay, whoever was put in numbers to criticize it,

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Speaker 4: you mean, or to move to say I want my

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Speaker 4: project in Bill one. Not built too right, and it'd

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Speaker 4: be very confusing. We've been working those groups that are

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Speaker 4: supportive of continuing the tax cut, and the House and

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Speaker 4: Senate leadership in Ways and Means and finance, Jason Smith

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Speaker 4: and Senator Crapo, they've been working together for a year

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Speaker 4: on this stuff. So this is an awful lot of

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Speaker 4: work done and the President is having meetings now, not

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Speaker 4: three months from now, with the House and Senate to

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Speaker 4: move these things forward. There's a great consensus on everything

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Speaker 4: should get done. There are a few issues that where

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Speaker 4: people could go one of two ways. Compromises have been

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Speaker 4: been put forward seven months ago, eight months ago.

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Speaker 2: Intercontinuing, what about the Thoon argument, John Thune says, one

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Speaker 2: an early win, I can give you the border within

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Speaker 2: days of Donald Trump taking off. It's going to take

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Speaker 2: me a couple of months to write the tax legislation.

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Speaker 2: Why don't we do this now? Take the win, and

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Speaker 2: then we'll come back around because we get two swings

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Speaker 2: at reconciliation.

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Speaker 3: Where's the problem there?

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Speaker 4: It's not a problem, but there's a better way to

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Speaker 4: do it. The President's going to put forward about one

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Speaker 4: hundred executive orders on day one. Many of those deal

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Speaker 4: with the border. What went wrong at the border over

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Speaker 4: the last four years was all executive orders. There was

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Speaker 4: no change in the law between when very few people

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Speaker 4: were coming in illegally to where millions were. Those were

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Speaker 4: all decisions by the Biden administration. In effect, executive orders,

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Speaker 4: decisions by the presidency and the Border Guard, Order patrol,

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Speaker 4: Border patrol system.

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Speaker 5: Just undo them.

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Speaker 4: Okay, the president made the bad decision, or if you

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Speaker 4: want border security, he made ones that made this order

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Speaker 4: less secure. Trump just return to the status quo.

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Speaker 3: You don't have to wait for legislation, is your point.

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Speaker 3: Just let him do that. Start working, start right the

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Speaker 3: tax bill.

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Speaker 4: And with the tax bill, you can find money in

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Speaker 4: the Defense Department in various places to rebuild the wall.

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Speaker 4: The walls largely built. They just left the doors open

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Speaker 4: in the last four years, so doesn't take a lot

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Speaker 4: of money to get that wall back up and going

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Speaker 4: to where it was a pretty secure border as Trump

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Speaker 4: left the White House. So these things can happen inside

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Speaker 4: the tax bill. The tax bill will have spending cuts,

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Speaker 4: but also some spending on defense and the border. That

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Speaker 4: will happen very quickly. But the executive orders can happen immediately.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Grover Norquist, who says it's one big bill,

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Speaker 2: as Donald Trump would say, one big, beautiful bill when

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Speaker 2: it comes to border, tax cuts and the rest of

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Speaker 2: the congressional agenda. Scott Bessen's going to be on the

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Speaker 2: hill this week for his confirmation.

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Speaker 5: Here.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he has sat right in the chair you're in

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Speaker 2: now to try to answer questions about how this cocktail

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Speaker 2: of tariffs and tax cuts does not lead to higher

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Speaker 2: deficts and potentially reinflation. You've spent your entire career trying

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Speaker 2: to not taxes lower, and I realized that that is

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Speaker 2: your focus. Do you worry about that seeing deficits increase

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Speaker 2: or you believe that revenues will rise enough by growth

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Speaker 2: that somehow it offsets the loss of revenue from cuts.

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Speaker 4: The cost of government is total spending, and it's not

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Speaker 4: the deficit. The deficit is the tip of the iceberg. Okay,

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Speaker 4: but what sinks the Titanic is the part of the

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Speaker 4: iceberg under the water. I understand total government spending is

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Speaker 4: what causes inflation, is what slows economic growth. So we

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Speaker 4: want two things. We want spending to be as low

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Speaker 4: as possible, and that means reforming entitlements. We were within

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Speaker 4: one vote then in the last Trump presidency when John

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Speaker 4: McCain voted no on what would have block granted to

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Speaker 4: the States Medicate that was a tremendous savings over a decade.

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Speaker 4: Simply by saying it will grow with inflation, but not

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Speaker 4: further than not faster than that. Huge says to be

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Speaker 4: made in block granting the welfare programs, not social Security,

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Speaker 4: not care, but the welfare programs. And there's more than

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Speaker 4: one hundred various means tested programs. Reagan block granted about

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Speaker 4: one hundred of them when he came in, a lot

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Speaker 4: of smaller ones. So that's a huge savings you can

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Speaker 4: sell Fanny and Freddie. I mean there are a number

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Speaker 4: of things. One of the things they want to do

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Speaker 4: with more energy, at leasting more properties. There's a lot

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Speaker 4: of cash to be earned that can pay for budget.

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Speaker 3: So you see some flexibility here.

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Speaker 2: I just want to make sure we understand before we're

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Speaker 2: done growth, growth the most understand the.

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Speaker 4: Most important way to keep the deficit down.

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Speaker 2: A strung I read you, will the deficit be lower

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Speaker 2: after four years of Donald Trump than it is now?

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Speaker 3: I think so, yeah, does it need to be?

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Speaker 4: It should be, and it can be both. We need

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Speaker 4: more spending cuts and we need more growth.

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Speaker 2: Come talk to us when the debate gets real the

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Speaker 2: ways it means that we start having a real conversation

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Speaker 2: about this bill. Grover Norquist with us here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Americans for Tax Reform.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Blue m Burk Balance of Power podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's

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Speaker 1: durn on Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

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Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 6: Back down here to Washington, where many members of the

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Speaker 6: House Republican Conference has made their way back after spending

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Speaker 6: some time in Florida this weekend. The Salt Republicans, as

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Speaker 6: we've mentioned, having an audience with the President elect at

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Speaker 6: mar A Lago, but others as well, Joe, including members

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Speaker 6: of say, the House Freedom Caucus, basically groups of people

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Speaker 6: within the conference who are going to have to try

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Speaker 6: to find a way to compromise on.

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Speaker 7: Issues like specifically tax balls.

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Speaker 3: Must have been quite a crowd. I mean, I always

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Speaker 3: wonder they get their own cabin when they go.

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Speaker 2: When that many people are there, because you had Main

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Speaker 2: Street partnership there too, Cayley, and a lot of the

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Speaker 2: questions that we've been asking you have not been answered

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Speaker 2: in terms of sequencing, and that's where we want to

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Speaker 2: start with Zach Cohen ahead of our conversation with Nicole

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Speaker 2: Malia Takus, who's going to join us live from Capitol

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Speaker 2: Hill in just a moment. Zach sets the baseline at

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Speaker 2: Bluemberg Tax. Zach, you're a full time Salt reporter. We

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Speaker 2: want to know what's happening there. But also in the

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Speaker 2: greater picture, will the Republican leadership in the House pursue

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Speaker 2: one big bill here as we've been asking, or will

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Speaker 2: take longer to write this tax bill, including elements like

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Speaker 2: salt that are making things a bit more complicated than

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Speaker 2: they were in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 8: Right because before they can figure out what or how

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Speaker 8: they're going to change the tax God, they got to

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Speaker 8: figure out when there's business ongoing debate where you have

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Speaker 8: House Republicans mostly on one side, set of Republicans on

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Speaker 8: the other talking about do we include an extension of

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Speaker 8: the twenty seventeen tax cuts that were pass during the

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Speaker 8: first Trump administration and a first reconciliation bill along with

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Speaker 8: things like board security and energy, military and defense spending,

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Speaker 8: or do we punt on that issue and deal with

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Speaker 8: it later in the year. Congress is known to really

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Speaker 8: only work when it's under a deadline. At the deadline

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Speaker 8: that they're keeping in mind is the end of this

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Speaker 8: calendar year when vas swats of the twenty seventeen tax

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Speaker 8: cuts of job ZACH do expire. And so there's some

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Speaker 8: thought that we compare that end of your deadline with

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Speaker 8: some of the cuts that E La musk If vec

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Speaker 8: Bamaswami are putting together at at DOGE as one way

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Speaker 8: to offset the multi trillion dollar tax cut that would

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Speaker 8: be extended over the next ten years. I Republicans do

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Speaker 8: indeed have the votes in bote, the House and the

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Speaker 8: Senate to do just that. They have to work through

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Speaker 8: some of the trickier issues like things like the state

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Speaker 8: and local tax deduction, which I'm sure we'll talk about.

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Speaker 8: Things like, you know, do they make any changes to

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Speaker 8: the corporate tax rate? What do they do about these

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Speaker 8: expiring business provisions. These are all the things that are going

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Speaker 8: to have to figure out in the next couple of months,

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Speaker 8: and there's a difference of opinion on exactly how much

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Speaker 8: time it would take to actually work out those details.

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Speaker 6: Well, so, when it comes to salt, specifically ZACH, which

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Speaker 6: obviously right now is capped at ten thousand dollars, was

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Speaker 6: there a firm discussion of numbers as we understand it

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Speaker 6: at mar A Lago or was it just you know, hey,

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Speaker 6: making it clear that lawmakers from New York and California

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Speaker 6: and a handful of other districts want to see this done,

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Speaker 6: and Donald Trump was like, Okay, yeah, let's think about.

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Speaker 9: It some more.

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Speaker 10: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: I think Trump on a very regular basis said he

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Speaker 8: wants to try to lift the cap. I think eliminating

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Speaker 8: it entirely is unlikely, just given how expensive that would be.

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Speaker 8: But Trump, even during the presidential campaign said we should

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Speaker 8: do something about the salt cap, which we should point

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Speaker 8: out was included in twenty seventeen tax bill that he

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Speaker 8: himself signed as a way to offset some of the

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Speaker 8: other changes they have bade to the task Code to

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Speaker 8: try to keep the trice tag down, and so they

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Speaker 8: come up with a couple of different ideas. The Trump

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Speaker 8: economic advisors have talked about doubling the current salt cap

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Speaker 8: from ten thousand to twenty thousand dollars. That's something that

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Speaker 8: people like Congressman Mike Lawler and Nickeol Loota, both from

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Speaker 8: New York, have said is insufficient to helping some of

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Speaker 8: their constituents, who, while making six figures is certainly as

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Speaker 8: you know, in New York is basically a middle class

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Speaker 8: lifestyle given how expensive how expensive it is to live there,

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Speaker 8: and so Lawler has said, let's bost it to one

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Speaker 8: hundred thousand dollars single filers, two hundred thousand for married couples.

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Speaker 8: That might be a bit of a stretch, so they

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Speaker 8: may end up somewhere in the middle. I was talking

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Speaker 8: to your next guest, Congressman Malia Takis over the week.

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Speaker 8: She said they talked about indexing the salt caps, similar

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Speaker 8: to how the standard deduction increases year over year without

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Speaker 8: congressional action to account for inflation. So there's a bunch

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Speaker 8: of different ideas on the table. The question is how

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Speaker 8: do you get the two hundred and eighteen votes in

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Speaker 8: the House and fifty one votes in the Senate off.

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Speaker 8: The MAT's little harder in the House, especially when you

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Speaker 8: have fiscal hawks who are trying to keep the price

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Speaker 8: tag down. Even Lindsey Graham, the incoming chairman of the

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Speaker 8: Budget Committee from South Carolina, was saying, I don't want

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Speaker 8: to be subsidizing high tax states places like New York,

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Speaker 8: New Jersey, California, and so they're going to have to

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Speaker 8: figure out some way to make both ends of their

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Speaker 8: publican conference work and if they can, going to Democrats

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Speaker 8: and try to work out some bi parisan deal.

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Speaker 6: All right, Bloomberg Tax Congress reporter Zach Cohen, thank you

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Speaker 6: so much for the reporting and also for the perfect

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Speaker 6: ties ahead to our next guest who is joining us

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Speaker 6: now live from Capitol Hill. Republican Congressoman Nicole mally Takis

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Speaker 6: of New York, who Zach just mentioned, is with us

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Speaker 6: now here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congresswoman, welcome back

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Speaker 6: to Balance of Power. You've obviously made it back safely

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Speaker 6: to Washington from mar A Lago. I know you told

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Speaker 6: Zach and have expressed that really this is about getting

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Speaker 6: to two hundred and eighteen and whatever number it is

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Speaker 6: on SALT that can get the requisite votes. But is

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Speaker 6: there a floor and a ceiling, some kind of parameter

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Speaker 6: around what that number actually realistically could look like you

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Speaker 6: could share with us.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 11: Look, I think your reporter got it just right. At

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Speaker 11: the low end, it would be doubling it from ten

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Speaker 11: to twenty. On the high end, it would be one

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Speaker 11: hundred thousand for individual I quite frankly think that is

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Speaker 11: a little too high, in particular if we're looking to

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Speaker 11: target middle class families. I think it could be really

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Speaker 11: more between the twenty and the sixty range. And this

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Speaker 11: is just me knowing all the information I know as

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Speaker 11: a member of Ways and Means and looking at the

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Speaker 11: big piece, big picture, the big puzzle, knowing all the

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Speaker 11: other pieces that need to fit into this equation. I

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Speaker 11: think the idea here is to get some type of

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Speaker 11: relief from the federal level. Four our constituents in New York,

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Speaker 11: New Jersey, California, because their mayors and governors, quite frankly,

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Speaker 11: are abusing them, keep increasing their taxes. The property tax

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Speaker 11: levy in New York City goes up year after year

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Speaker 11: after year. It's the only municipality in the state that

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Speaker 11: does not have a two percent.

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Speaker 5: Cap, and that's unfortunate.

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Speaker 11: This problem could obviously be resolved by our mayor and

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Speaker 11: governor if they were just to freeze property taxes or

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Speaker 11: lower the personal income tax rate, as President Trump did

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Speaker 11: in TCJA in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 5: But you have to remember there's the other pieces. You

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Speaker 5: have the standard deduction that was doubled. You had the

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Speaker 5: child tax credit that was doubled.

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Speaker 11: You had the Alternative minimum tax which went away completely

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Speaker 11: for the middle class, which was really crushing them, and

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Speaker 11: it actually prevented them from benefiting from salt.

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Speaker 5: So we can't have the AMT come back as part

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Speaker 5: of this.

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Speaker 11: I've made that very clear, and so we're working with

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Speaker 11: all these different pieces, not to mention the corporate stuff

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Speaker 11: and the R and D tax credit and bonus appreciation,

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Speaker 11: so many.

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Speaker 5: Other pieces that are going to be part of this package.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating Congresswoman that you're also exploring some more creative ideas here.

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Speaker 2: The reporting that we're reading coming out of the mar

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Speaker 2: A Lago conference quotes you to suggest maybe we increase

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Speaker 2: the deduction. If your state freezes or lowers the tax rate,

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Speaker 2: maybe the deduction goes even higher. Now, this is getting interesting,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder what the reaction that you got was

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Speaker 2: from your fellow lawmakers, from the President elect, and maybe

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Speaker 2: even from Democrats who you've floated this to.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 11: I think my colleagues actually really like that idea, because

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Speaker 11: part of the problem is we want to give relief.

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Speaker 9: But if we give.

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Speaker 11: Taxpayers money back with one hand, and the governor and

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Speaker 11: mayor come along and just raise taxes and take it

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Speaker 11: with the other, that's a problem and the taxpayer ends

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Speaker 11: up losing at the end of the day, and so

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Speaker 11: how do we incentivize, how do we change.

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Speaker 5: Behavior, How do we hold the.

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Speaker 11: Mayors and the governors that are treating taxpayers like ATMs accountable?

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Speaker 5: And so we have to see if this can legally

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Speaker 5: be done. That's the big question.

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Speaker 11: Can we let's say double this deduction and then say

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Speaker 11: maybe it goes up, it.

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Speaker 5: Triples or quadruples if your state take.

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Speaker 11: Action to freeze put a cap on property taxes and

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Speaker 11: freeze income taxes or reduce them. You know, these are

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Speaker 11: ideas that we're tossing around. I've also said, maybe we

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Speaker 11: want to limit the property tax portion of this deduction

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Speaker 11: for primary residences, right so that could actually target the

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Speaker 11: people that truly needed. I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 11: different ideas being floated around, and as a member of

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Speaker 11: the Ways and Means Committee, we are obviously crunching the numbers,

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Speaker 11: but we have to wait until the Budgets Committee gives

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Speaker 11: us the top line and the reconciliation instructions to really figure.

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Speaker 5: Out how to put together this Rubik's cube. And that's

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Speaker 5: you know.

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Speaker 11: In the meantime, we're doing the math and trying to

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Speaker 11: figure out what our options are and we'll go from there.

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Speaker 6: Well as we talk about the kind of structure of

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Speaker 6: reconciliation Congressoman, was there consensus built at mar A Lago

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Speaker 6: this week und around the one bill or two idea?

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Speaker 6: Is this still a live debate? What messaging was you?

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Speaker 6: Were you, you and your colleagues delivering to the president elect?

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Speaker 6: And what was he saying in return?

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Speaker 11: I think the majority of our membership, certainly all the

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Speaker 11: members of the Houseways and Means Committee, want to see

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Speaker 11: one bill. And if you saw what happened in the

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Speaker 11: last week of session right last year, that's the reason

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Speaker 11: why we need one bill. It's hard to build consensus

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Speaker 11: when you have such a slim majority. And the last

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Speaker 11: time they did two reconciliation bills, it was under Gingridge

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Speaker 11: in nineteen ninety seven and he had a much larger majority.

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Speaker 11: You have to remember TCJA there were thirteen no Republican votes.

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Speaker 11: We don't have that luxury.

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Speaker 5: We have one. We have a majority of one. So

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Speaker 5: we have to build consensus, and I think.

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Speaker 11: The best way to do that is to put the

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Speaker 11: different pieces that members care about together. The border security measures,

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Speaker 11: the energy production measures.

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Speaker 5: Those will satisfy some of the border states.

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Speaker 11: The energy producing states, and you have the salt states,

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Speaker 11: get something with our salt relief. And overall we support

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Speaker 11: as a conference, we support tax cuts, we support border security,

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Speaker 11: we support American energy dominance. So let's just drill down

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Speaker 11: and negotiate with each other on those finer details of

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Speaker 11: each of these and get one bill passed.

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Speaker 5: So we get to the two eighteen.

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Speaker 11: If you kick tax to the end of the year

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Speaker 11: in a separate package, I very much fear that it

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Speaker 11: will expire and America will see four trillion dollars in

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Speaker 11: tax increases. We cannot afford to allow that to happen.

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Speaker 11: It's too risky to do it later on in the

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Speaker 11: year and not upfront with this first package.

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Speaker 2: Well, Congresswoman, that's as long as we've ever gone in

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Speaker 2: a conversation. I think before you mentioned the border, So

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Speaker 2: let's get to it. There is a thought out there,

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Speaker 2: and Grover Norquist suggested it a little bit earlier in

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Speaker 2: the broadcast that Donald Trump's plans to issue some one

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Speaker 2: hundred executive orders, many of them aimed at the border,

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Speaker 2: will give you breathing room to actually craft a single

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Speaker 2: bill that would include border security and the tax issues

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Speaker 2: that we're talking about Is that the way you're looking

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Speaker 2: at this. Let the President handle the border out of

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Speaker 2: the gate. We'll back them up with legislation when it's

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Speaker 2: done being written here and our debate concludes on the hill.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, you know, the Senate has made the argument

442
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 5: that we need.

443
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 11: To do too, because we want to do the border

444
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 11: wins early on. There's a way we can achieve that. First,

445
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 11: as you say, the President can issue the executive orders,

446
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 11: and he will do that to undo the policies of

447
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 11: the Biden administration. But we've also passed legislation. Just the

448
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 11: other day, we passed the Lake and Riley Act, which

449
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 11: would require those who commit certain crimes to be detained

450
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 11: and deported.

451
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,399
Speaker 5: And we're working.

452
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 11: Through pieces of legislation that can get bipartisan support and

453
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 11: the sixty votes needed in the Senate to get that

454
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 11: out the door and put it on the president's desk

455
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 11: for when he arrives next week. So I think we

456
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 11: can score those border victories early and then really when

457
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 11: it comes to the reconciliation, it has to have a

458
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 11: fiscal implication, right, So we can't necessarily do Lake and

459
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 11: Riley Act in reconciliation, but we can increase border patrol.

460
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 11: We can increase technology, we can put some things in

461
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 11: there that would help with the deportation of criminals, and

462
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 11: maybe adding judges to hear these asylum cases faster.

463
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 5: So I think we can achieve.

464
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 11: Both things here. And the bottom line is a president

465
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 11: really just wants to get it done. I don't think

466
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 11: he cares at the end of the day on whether

467
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 11: it's one or two. I think he just wants to

468
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 11: get the policies done that will get America back on track.

469
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 11: We've made the case that it should be one bill,

470
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 11: and I think he sees the merit of one bill.

471
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 11: As I said, considering what happened at the end of

472
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 11: last year where we had so much back and forth

473
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 11: within our conference.

474
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 6: Well and part of that saga at the end of

475
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 6: last year congressoman was a question over whether the debt

476
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 6: ceiling should be lifted or abolished entirely before Trump takes office.

477
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 6: How was that interplaying in the conversations this weekend. When

478
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 6: is that going to happen, in what legislation and what

479
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 6: could potentially be the Trade Office we've seen reporting that

480
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 6: it might be debt ceiling in exchange for wildfire relief

481
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 6: in California.

482
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 11: Well, you know, interestingly enough, a lot of members believe

483
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 11: that the debt limit piece of this is probably the

484
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 11: most complicated, because that's where you see the most friction

485
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 11: in our conference. There are some members who never voted

486
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 11: to increase the debt limit, and we have to understand

487
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 11: that the debt limit is money that's already been spent

488
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 11: that we're paying the bill. We don't want to prevent

489
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 11: a default. So the responsible thing to do is to

490
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 11: address that debt limit.

491
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 5: And do it before June.

492
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 11: I think we're just going to look for any vehicle

493
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 11: where we can get it. It could be with disaster aid,

494
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 11: it could be within the reconciliation, it could be within

495
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 11: the government funding mechanism, the you know, the federal budget.

496
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 11: So we'll see, we'll see what vehicle where we can

497
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 11: get it. But it does need to be addressed before June.

498
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 11: The sooner we can do it, the better. Let's get

499
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 11: it out of the way. It's just the most contentious piece.

500
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 11: And then and then get to the other real policy

501
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 11: issues that the Americans people have been waiting for. Right

502
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 11: They want to get this economy back on track. They

503
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 11: want to see the tax cuts extended and enhanced. They

504
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 11: want to see our border secure and people who are

505
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 11: here illegally committing crimes deported, and they want to see

506
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 11: us lower those energy costs and produce more energy domestically.

507
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 2: Congresswoman, with regard to the border, while you're with us

508
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: here in our remaining couple of moments, a warning from

509
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 2: Immigrations and custom enforcement. Without emergency funding, they could be

510
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 2: forced to release tens of thousands of immigrants, including some

511
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: deemed to be public safety threats. We've talked a lot

512
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: about the number of migrants being held in hotels, for instance,

513
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 2: in places like New York City. Are you in touch

514
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: with ICE and with border patrol on this matter? Would

515
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 2: Congress be there to prevent the release of people dangerous

516
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 2: to Americans?

517
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 5: Well, I have not heard about this.

518
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 11: If there's an issue with the funding, because the funding

519
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 11: is there for the next to the end of March,

520
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 11: I think what they need to do is actually find

521
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 11: a way to shift the funding so instead of housing

522
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 11: individuals and transporting individuals into America's cities, were actually deporting

523
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 11: them and repatriating them. And if there are committing crimes

524
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 11: and they don't have legitimate asylum claims, I think that

525
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 11: we met with Tom Homan about this. I mean, particularly

526
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 11: New York City has been destroyed, you know, by havoc

527
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 11: being wreaked by illegal immigrants, gang members, drug traffickers, people

528
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 11: who are bad, dangerous people. They've they've committed murder, they've

529
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 11: committed robberies, they've committed all sorts of crimes in our city,

530
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 11: and we need to get them out of our city

531
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 11: and our country. And so the question really has been

532
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 11: how does the incoming administration legally Is there a way

533
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 11: for them to shift some of the funny mondy money

534
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 11: that has actually been used to provide incentives and house

535
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 11: these individuals and give them free services to actually.

536
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 5: Remove them from our country.

537
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 11: And that's I think what the incoming administration is gonna

538
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 11: have to address when they get there next week.

539
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: From New York's eleventh District, Nicole Malia Taka is great

540
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: to see you, Congress women. We thank you giving us

541
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 2: a little report from mar A Lago there, Kaylee, interesting

542
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: to consider some of the options that lawmakers are facing

543
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 2: or we're going to have more with our political panel

544
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: on that matter. Straight Head Jeanie Shanzano and Chapin Fay,

545
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: our Democrat and Republican, respectively, trying to find the way

546
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 2: forward as lawmakers get back to town.

547
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg.

548
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

549
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

550
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android, Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

551
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

552
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

553
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 6: Next Monday will not be an ordinary debut of the

554
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 6: treaty week because it will be an inauguration, which happens

555
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 6: to fall on Martin Luther King Junior Day this year, Joe.

556
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 6: But that does mean we are in the final week

557
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 6: here of the Biden administration before it becomes a Trump administration,

558
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 6: and many of the individuals who intend to join that

559
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 6: administration have been nominated by the President elect. Are going

560
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 6: to have a busy week leading up to the inauguration

561
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 6: as they get ready to sit and be questioned drilled

562
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 6: by lawmakers in the Senate beginning tomorrow with the Defense

563
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 6: Secretary nominee Pete Hegsea.

564
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: More stressful than others, but quite a number here, Kaylee.

565
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: We're all paying attention to the more dramatic potentials and

566
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 2: some of the more bold faces here, but we're talking

567
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 2: about thirteen nominees before eleven different committees.

568
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 3: This is going to be an extremely busy week.

569
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: The one everyone's talking about Pete Hegseth Department of Defense,

570
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: that's tomorrow, but much more where that came from. We'll

571
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 2: see Pam Bondi and Marco Rubio on Wednesday, right, AG

572
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: and State Department. John Ratcliffe is CIA that same day,

573
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 2: and on Thursday we'll see the man tap for Treasury,

574
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 2: Scott bessen That's just the tip of the iceberg that

575
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 2: We've got a lot more where these come from. I

576
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 2: suspect we're going to hear a lot about Pete Hegseth tomorrow,

577
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: no matter what happens, as long as Elizabeth Warren shows up.

578
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, she has a long list of questions for him

579
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 6: as he spaced scrutiny when it comes to a number

580
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 6: of his views and of course past allegations of sexual

581
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 6: assault that he denies. She has a long list of

582
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 6: questions for Scott Bessant, though, did you see that?

583
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: Just longer than PE's currently one page?

584
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 6: I mean, and some of them are like question, sub bullet,

585
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 6: second sub bullet, triple sub bullet. He's going to have

586
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 6: a lot to answer, not just in the hearing, but

587
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 6: probably in writing.

588
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: Gives you a.

589
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 2: Chance to rehearse maybe some answers. Let's get our panel together.

590
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 2: They're going to be watching all of this, and I

591
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: do wonder if any of these could take on a

592
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,719
Speaker 2: different course based on the Q and A that we

593
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: see in here this week. Gdi Shanzeno is with us,

594
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: of course, our democratic analyst, political science professor at Iona

595
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: University and Bloomberg Politics contributors.

596
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 3: She's joined by Republican.

597
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: Analyst Chapein Faye, founder Lighthouse Public Affairs.

598
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 3: Great to have both of you with us.

599
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: Chapin, Pete Hegseth surely knows that he's going to have

600
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: some difficult questions. To Kaylie's point, Elizabeth Warren has already

601
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: sent her seventy two questions to him. We're going to

602
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 2: be hearing from Kirsten, jillibrand Joni Ernst. Who will you

603
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: be watching tomorrow that could potentially change the course of

604
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: this nomination.

605
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 9: We'll I'll be watching Pete Hegseth and how he handles it.

606
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 12: You know, this is their job and their prerogative to

607
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 12: ask questions and tough questions of the president's nominees and

608
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 12: in today's you know, can it change course from what

609
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 12: we think absolutely in any second if you watch, you know,

610
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 12: if you are steeped in you know, social media, congressional

611
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 12: hearings like I am, you see all the time he

612
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 12: gets served by these viral moments.

613
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 9: You know, AOC has many of them.

614
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 12: Senator Hawley has a lot of them on the constrict side,

615
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 12: Senator Kennedy where they're sort of holding Biden administration.

616
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 9: Folks to the feet of the fire.

617
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 12: I think you'll see a lot of that in reverse

618
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 12: once these hearings start, and it's up to the nominees

619
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 12: to have been prepared, both of the nominees and their

620
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 12: teams right to prepare, to be prepared and anticipate any

621
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 12: difficult question and come up with legitimate, truthful answers to it.

622
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 12: And if a nominee cannot do that, then that's a

623
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 12: minimum threshold question. And if they can't do that, then

624
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 12: they shouldn't be Trump's candidate nominee.

625
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 9: So we'll see all that play out.

626
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 12: I think the vast majority of them are going to

627
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 12: have tough questions, but ultimately nominated. I think President Trump

628
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 12: was elected with a mandate and he has, as was

629
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 12: the House and Congress and the Senate, so as they

630
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 12: do their jobs rightly. So they should keep in mind

631
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 12: that the President should get a little latitude on.

632
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 9: Some of these nominees.

633
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 12: As long as there's not huge issues in their background,

634
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 12: they should be confirmed. But again, that's what the process

635
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 12: is for, and if things come out and it changes

636
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 12: the nature of the hearing, then so be it.

637
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 9: That's on the nominees to be able to handle that.

638
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 12: Well.

639
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 6: So, Genie, obviously we have to see the hearing play

640
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 6: out tomorrow. But it does seem that the feeling in

641
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 6: Washington is that Hegset's chances are significantly better than they

642
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 6: were in those first weeks after his nomination was announced.

643
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 6: And if he is able to get through, does that

644
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 6: still leave a door open for Republicans to potentially tank

645
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 6: another nominee like Tulci Gabbard for example, or maybe RFK Junior.

646
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 13: It certainly does. But the reality is I looked back today, Kayla,

647
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 13: you know, I love to do this. Since George Bush here,

648
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 13: there have only been thirteen nominees who have not gotten through,

649
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 13: and twelve of those were with drawn. Only one, John

650
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 13: Tower was rejected. So Historically, you make it to this

651
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 13: hearing unless you implode, or to Chapin's point, something comes

652
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 13: out unexpected. You're going to make it through. And Republicans

653
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 13: are going to see that through. So you know what

654
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 13: I'm going to be watching, certainly the nominees themselves heg

655
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 13: Seth is our marquee person tomorrow, but also how Democrats

656
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 13: perform and what they are setting up in terms of

657
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 13: addressing the takeover of the Republicans of DC, and how

658
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 13: they're going to do a Trump two point zero in

659
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 13: a way that's different than they did in twenty sixteen,

660
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 13: which was quite frankly not particularly useful for the party.

661
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: Well, so, Jennie, what will be Elizabeth Warren's mission tomorrow,

662
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: Kirsten Gillibrand's mission? Are they trying to on a singular level,

663
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: trying to derail these nominations or is it just about

664
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: getting all the poison out, getting all the bad stuff

665
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 2: out there so people can read about it.

666
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 13: You know, I think what they're going to do, Elizabeth

667
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 13: Warren you mentioned, you know some of the Democrats. We're

668
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 13: going to be watching Alyssa Slotkin, there's some other cy Duckworth,

669
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 13: All of these folks are going to be trying to

670
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 13: do what Chuck Schumer talked about privately, which is to

671
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 13: poke holes strategically in Republican governance so that going forward,

672
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 13: when things aren't working well for Republicans, if that happens,

673
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 13: they can point back and say, look it, we noted this.

674
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 13: So I think that's what we're going to see. And

675
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 13: again it depends on what happens in the hearing. But

676
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 13: you know, somebody like Pete Hegseth, he's a smart guy.

677
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 13: He's practicing, we know that, and he's good in front

678
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 13: of both the camera and he's good at taking questions.

679
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 13: So I find it hard to believe there's going to

680
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 13: be a viral moment on his part, unless, of course,

681
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 13: Democrats succeed and get somebody to testify against him, which

682
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 13: so far we haven't gotten any inclination is going to happen.

683
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 6: Well, given our audience here on Bloomberg TV and Radio Shape,

684
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 6: and I was particularly interested not just in Senator Warren's

685
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 6: questions for Hegseth, but the laundry list of questions she

686
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 6: has for the Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Besson, including this

687
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 6: entire section on tariffs, including what tariffs do you.

688
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 7: Intend to impose on what timeline.

689
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 6: What products? What is the goal of this is raising revenue?

690
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 6: Is it to pay for the tax cuts? Do you

691
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 6: think Scott Besson can actually answer any of these questions? Honestly,

692
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 6: when everybody is saying, oh, tariffs might just be a

693
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 6: negotiating tactic for Donald Trump, no one really knows what

694
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 6: he's actually going to pursue once in office.

695
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 9: I do think he can answer the questions.

696
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 12: I think he's going to be prepared and he's going

697
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 12: to be totally aligned with what the President wants to do.

698
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 12: So if it is a negotiating tactic, right, you'll see

699
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 12: I think him allographing some of that, because it is.

700
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 12: He is in a tight tough position, as you rightly

701
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 12: point out. But what I would say, what I'd also

702
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 12: like to say is, I think what we're also going

703
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 12: to see in Gi mentioned this somewhat, This is also

704
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 12: a time for Democrats to establish themselves as sort of

705
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 12: the chief antagonizer, right of the Democratic Party or the

706
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 12: chief of the opposition. And so you're gonna see, you know,

707
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 12: you mentioned Senator Jillibrand and Senator Warren when it comes

708
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 12: to the Treasury that's something she cared very much about.

709
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 12: You're gonna see them auditioning for who's going to be

710
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 12: the thorn in Trump's side, who the media is going

711
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,360
Speaker 12: to go to, you know how, you know how is

712
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 12: Senator Schumer uh sort of running uh the opposition party, right,

713
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 12: And you're gonna see all that. I think you're gonna

714
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 12: see that even more so for Genie's point, I think

715
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 12: I agree right that you know a lot of these nominees,

716
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 12: including except are going to get through. So you're gonna

717
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 12: see the Democrats actually auditioning right to steal the limelight

718
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 12: or to or to or to or to suck to

719
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 12: you know, everything out out of the rooks like the

720
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 12: air at the room.

721
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 9: So I think that's what you're also going to see.

722
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 12: But back to your original question about the Treasury sectary again,

723
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 12: this is this is Senator Warren. This is what she

724
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 12: cares about, and she has every right to ask tough

725
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 12: questions and she should. And I do think this is

726
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 12: a good issue, uh to put the you know these nominee,

727
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 12: this nominee particularly through his bases because it's something the

728
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 12: general PubL I don't think has a really tight grasp

729
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 12: on how tariffs work, why President Trump wants to use

730
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 12: them in the way that he's using them, right, So

731
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 12: I think there's a little confusion here that she can

732
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 12: run into and get hurt, you know, if you're going

733
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:11,959
Speaker 12: to try and get.

734
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 9: Her narrative to take hold through these hearings. So I

735
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 9: do think you're going to see, you.

736
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 12: Know, pay attention to a lot of who's asking the

737
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 12: questions and what questions are being asked.

738
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 6: All right, Shape and Fay and Jeanie Shanzino our political

739
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 6: panel today, helping us keep tabs of everything happening here

740
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 6: in Washington.

741
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

742
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn

743
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

744
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

745
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

746
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 6: Here in Washington, we are marking the beginning of the

747
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 6: end for the Biden administration. This is the final week

748
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 6: that Joe Biden will spend in the Oval Office, and

749
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 6: he is using it in part to try to cement

750
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 6: his legacy through farewell addresses. There will be a big

751
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 6: one on Wednesday evening primetime eight pm Eastern from the

752
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 6: Oval Office. But before that, he'll be speaking actually at

753
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 6: the top of the next hour two pm Eastern time

754
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 6: on this Monday at the State Department, specifically on his

755
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 6: foreign policy legacy, Joe, and certainly on that front, there

756
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 6: is no shortage of events of circumstances geopolitically over the

757
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 6: last four years for him to talk about.

758
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 3: Well, that's for sure.

759
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: It is hard to believe that a week from right

760
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 2: now we'll be watching a parade. Yeah, imagine that a

761
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: new president Donald Trump's worn in will be the president

762
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 2: of the United States. They'll be in their luncheon preparing

763
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 2: to go back down to the other round of Pennsylvania

764
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 2: Avenue to actually move into the White House. And what

765
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: will happen, to your point between now and then is

766
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: going to be remarkable. We'll go through this altogether, or

767
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: there are some things we cannot predict. We know there's

768
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: one they're hoping for in this White House, and that's

769
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: a ceasefire in Gaza. Of course, Donald Trump has visions

770
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 2: potentially in his mind as well as they intendem try

771
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 2: to negotiate a ceasefire to see the release upon of

772
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: hostages upon his swearing in.

773
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, as Donald Trump has maintained that he would like

774
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 6: to see the hostages have been released by inauguration day,

775
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 6: or's promise pretty serious consequences. So it's kind of the

776
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 6: story of an outgoing and income president incoming president trying

777
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 6: at the same time to achieve the same means on

778
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 6: the same timeline.

779
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 2: The shades of Carter and Reagan spent some time earlier

780
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: in the Bureau today listening to Jake Sullivan, the President's

781
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: National security advisor. He sat down in conversation with Bloomberg's

782
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 2: Jenny Leonard to talk about this very matter.

783
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.

784
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 14: I think the pressure is building for Hamas to come

785
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 14: to yes. I think Israel also has achieved a huge

786
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 14: amount of its military objectives in Gaza, and therefore they

787
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 14: are in a position to be able to say yes.

788
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 14: So there is a distinct possibility that we can get

789
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 14: this deal done this week before President Biden leaves office.

790
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 14: But as you say, we've been here before, We've been

791
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 14: close before and haven't gotten across the finish line. So

792
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 14: I can't make any promises or predictions. But just this

793
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 14: morning I was on the phone with Brett McGirk, who

794
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 14: has been basically camped out in Doha. He's been there

795
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 14: for more than a week working the details within the

796
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 14: framework President Biden set out last year. I spoke also

797
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 14: this morning with the Cuty Prime Minister and with one

798
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 14: of the key Israeli negotiators, and there is a general

799
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 14: sense that this is moving in the right direction. The

800
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 14: question now over the next short while is can Hamas

801
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 14: get to yes? Can we get to a final agreement,

802
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 14: and then can we begin implementing in the coming days.

803
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 14: It's there for the taking. So the question is now

804
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 14: can we all collectively seize the moment and make this happen?

805
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 15: Vice President elect JD. Van said yesterday it will probably

806
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 15: get done a day or two before you leave office.

807
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 15: Do deadlines like this specific deadlines help or hurt the negotiations?

808
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 15: And does rhetoric like the one employed by President elect

809
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 15: Donald Trump is it useful to get Hamas to yes?

810
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 14: I think deadlines can serve two functions in a negotiation.

811
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 14: When they're imposed by one party, frequently a deadline can

812
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 14: make the other party think, hey, if I just wait

813
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 14: till the last minute, they'll give me everything. If they're

814
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 14: imposed by the mediators. If the Americans, the Cutteries, the

815
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 14: Egyptians all basically say let's focus the mining, get this

816
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 14: thing done, I think they can have a positive impact.

817
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 14: And so I think the pressure building here towards the

818
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 14: end of President Biden's term has been considerable and that

819
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 14: that will help contribute to a positive outcome if we

820
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 14: can generate that final yes from both sides. At the

821
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 14: same time. This has been a circumstance in which President

822
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 14: Biden gave direction shortly after the election to me, to

823
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 14: Brett and to others on our team. Work closely with

824
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 14: the incoming team. Make sure we have a united front,

825
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 14: we have a coordinated message, and we have tried to

826
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 14: do that over the course of the last several weeks,

827
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 14: as has the Trump team that's coming in. I think

828
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 14: this is not a partisan issue. This is an American

829
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 14: issue to get our hostages out and all of the

830
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 14: hostages out, bring the fighting to an end, and surge

831
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 14: humanitarian assistants into Gaza. And I think it's how a

832
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 14: transition should operate, and it's consistent with President Biden's worldview

833
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 14: about his stewardship of this country.

834
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 6: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in conversation with Bloomberg's

835
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 6: Jenny Leonard in our offices here in Washington, d C.

836
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 7: Earlier today. Again, there is a week left to go

837
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 7: of this.

838
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 6: Current administration before inauguration, and we'll see if a deal

839
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 6: can be reached over the course of the.

840
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 7: Next I guess less than seven days.

841
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 6: We want to extend this conversation further as we await

842
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,479
Speaker 6: the foreign policy speech of President Biden at the State

843
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 6: Department just a few minutes from now. In tern of

844
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 6: retired for Star General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander

845
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 6: for Europe and of course was a presidential candidate in

846
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 6: two thousand and four. General, thank you so much for

847
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 6: being here on balance of power when we consider the

848
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 6: Middle East, specifically in the kind of bookending of the

849
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 6: Biden administration with an Afghanistan withdrawal and the summer of

850
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 6: twenty twenty one, now at the end at war in

851
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 6: Gaza that has been going on for well more than

852
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 6: a year, how much would being able to secure the

853
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 6: release of the hostages to reach this agreement that has

854
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 6: long been fought for right at the end of the

855
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 6: administration define the president's legacy when it comes to the

856
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 6: Middle East.

857
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 10: Well, I think the president, if he can get the

858
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 10: hostages released, I think there will be a great legacy

859
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,919
Speaker 10: for President Biden to leave. But I don't think there's

860
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 10: any assurance that you're going to get the hostages released,

861
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 10: and we don't know how many are still alive. The

862
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 10: problem is that from the beginning, from the October seventh

863
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 10: attack on, it's always been the Hamas strategy to draw

864
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 10: Israel in, to implicate the United States in this, and

865
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 10: to use Israel's military force against Savillians because Hamas is

866
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 10: using them as human shields, as moral shields, as a

867
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 10: way of protecting its own path forward, and Hamas sought

868
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 10: to involve Iran and his blaw in its conflict. It's failed,

869
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 10: but there's still diehards in a moss So who's in

870
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 10: charge and will they give in? I hope they do.

871
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: Is it a help or a hindrance to have two

872
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 2: parallel lines of communication underway right now? Generally this White

873
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 2: House is clearly engaged and has been for months with

874
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 2: regard to a ceasefire, But having mar A Lago involved

875
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: as well means what.

876
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 10: Well, it's confusing, It's difficult. It depends really on what's

877
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 10: going on on the inside that we don't have any

878
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 10: access to. If there's really teamwork between the two groups,

879
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 10: then that's fine. But in previous decades there hasn't been

880
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 10: that teamwork. There's been jostling, there's been a partisan one upsmanship,

881
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 10: there's been efforts to stall things and get credit for

882
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:58,359
Speaker 10: it and so forth from transitions of administrations, and so

883
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 10: we just don't know how that's really going to work

884
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 10: out here. I'm sure if the hostages are released of

885
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 10: tomorrow a President Biden will be very proud of it.

886
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 10: But if they're released two weeks from now, President Trump

887
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 10: will certainly take credit for it. And yet surely some

888
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 10: of that credit belongs to President Biden, so there'd be

889
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 10: some Joscelyn going on, even if they're working in the

890
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 10: closest cooperation.

891
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 6: Well, so, when we consider what we've already seen general,

892
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 6: which of course has been the destruction of vast parts

893
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 6: of Gaza, obviously of Lebanon, as well as that front

894
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 6: opened up between Israel and Hesbela, we have seen an

895
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 6: overturning of Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad's regime, and still

896
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 6: have questions about what the future will look like there

897
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 6: can you just define the situation in the Middle East

898
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 6: that Donald Trump will be inheriting and what decisions he

899
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 6: is going to have to make in fairly short order

900
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 6: after taking the oath of office that could define the

901
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 6: way the region moves forward in the US's relationship with it.

902
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 10: Situation in the Middle East is really best defined by

903
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 10: the weakness of Iran for the first time in decades.

904
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 10: Iran is substantially weakened by the failure of his Blah

905
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:12,959
Speaker 10: and also by the Israeli air strikes and the fact

906
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 10: that the Russians haven't really come in and replaced all

907
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 10: those air defenses yet so far as we know. Iran's

908
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 10: also weakened because it's ballistic missiles and so forth really

909
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 10: didn't have that much impact even when they launched them

910
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 10: in the hundreds, and so Iran is weak. This is

911
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 10: the moment to change the balance of power in the

912
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 10: Middle East. Lebanon needs to be freed from the grip

913
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 10: of his Belah. Syria needs to become an independent country.

914
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 10: Hopefully HTS is not going to revert to a pur

915
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 10: Islamist state that's hostiled to its neighbors. Turkey is reaching

916
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 10: out and something has to be done with respect to

917
00:44:55,960 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 10: our Kurdish allies and the fifty so terrorists and family

918
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 10: members that are being held in prisons and camps by

919
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 10: the Syrian Democratic forces. If terrorists are released, we're going

920
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 10: to have a huge problem, just like what happened in

921
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 10: Afghanistan when we released the Taliban prisoners as part of

922
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 10: the peace deal that was negotiated by President Trump. So

923
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 10: I think that I think President Trump has an historic opportunity.

924
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 10: The window is open to go to Iran with an ultimatum,

925
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 10: really is cough up the nuclear stuff, do it now

926
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 10: or face the consequences. The Iranian population is restive, they're

927
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 10: ready for a change in regime by all accounts, we

928
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 10: don't know what that would bring exactly. And the Iyatolas

929
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:52,240
Speaker 10: and the Mullahs there are in an historically weak position.

930
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 10: So this is the overriding element that President Trump has

931
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 10: to look at in dealing with the Middle East, Siria, Lebanon, Gaza.

932
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 10: They're actually secondary to getting to the source of the trouble,

933
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 10: which is Iran.

934
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 2: General Clark, the individual's Donald Trump is tapped to make

935
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 2: up his national security team, will begin their confirmation hearings

936
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 2: tomorrow by way of Pete Hegseth, of course, his nominee

937
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 2: to be the next Secretary of Defense. And I'm sure

938
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 2: you're aware of the conversation and the concerns that many senators,

939
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:32,400
Speaker 2: many Democratic senators it seems, have over his nomination. He

940
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 2: has said, with regard to women serving in combat, that

941
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 2: he is in fact open to this idea and supports

942
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 2: women who are serving in uniform. He is also pledged

943
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 2: to stop drinking alcohol if confirmed to be the next

944
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense. With what you know about that job,

945
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 2: which is more than most Americans, I wonder if that

946
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 2: should be enough to win the support of senators.

947
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 10: You know, he's he's served in uniform. He knows something

948
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 10: about the army. He's been there, he's been on deployments,

949
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 10: he's been in the National Guard. He's got a lot

950
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 10: of characteristics. A Princeton graduate, he's not a dumb guy.

951
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 10: He's got a lot of talent. So and he's loyal

952
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 10: to President Trump or President elect Trump, and so all

953
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 10: these things weigh in his favor. The senators are going

954
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 10: to have to decide whether the other elements in his

955
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 10: background are disqualifying in some way. But I think on

956
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 10: balance it always goes to the President elect, he gets

957
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 10: his choice. So I think it's going to be difficult.

958
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 10: No matter what some Democratic senators say about him and

959
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 10: his attitudes, what he's written in books and so forth,

960
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 10: I think it's going to be difficult to deny him

961
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 10: the nomination. And I would expect that when he gets

962
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 10: in and he's confronted with the enormities of that job,

963
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 10: the responsibilities, the details that have to be worked, the

964
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 10: teamwork that's required in there, that a lot of the

965
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 10: statements he made and so forth are going to go

966
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 10: by the board. It's going to be a Secretary of Defense.

967
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 10: It's got important responsibilities. Got to focus on that job.

968
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 5: General.

969
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 6: We just have about ninety seconds left here, but I

970
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,719
Speaker 6: would imagine when the President speaks a few minutes from now,

971
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 6: he will be touching on NATO expanding under his watch,

972
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 6: as well as the support his administration has provided for Ukraine.

973
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 6: But a week from now, when Donald Trump takes office,

974
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 6: can NATO and Ukraine be as confident the US will

975
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 6: still be there to support.

976
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 10: I don't think Ukraine is confident yet, and they don't

977
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 10: know what kind of support the United States will provide.

978
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 10: But I will say this, the United States has provided

979
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 10: good support, but not exclusive support to Ukraine, and the

980
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 10: European Allies have actually provided more military hardware than the

981
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 10: United States, and the money that's gone in it's gone

982
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 10: to replenish our own arsenals. We could have done a

983
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 10: lot more, in my view, we should have done a

984
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 10: lot more. And I hope that Trump administration will understand

985
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 10: that if you want to cut a good deal to

986
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 10: preserve and protect Ukraine in a sustainable way, you have

987
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 10: to continue to support it. You have to have a

988
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 10: strong front and that means some connection to NATO for

989
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 10: security guarantees for Ukraine.

990
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 2: General, it's great to have you back, Wesley Clark, former

991
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: Supreme Allied Commander for Europe. Of course, General Wesley Clark

992
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee

993
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,439
Speaker 2: Lines in Washington, will be keeping tabs on what Joe

994
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: Biden says in his address to the State Department.

995
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 3: Coming up shortly with what will.

996
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 2: Essentially be a series of farewell addresses, culminating with the

997
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 2: big one, the Oval Office address in primetime to the

998
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 2: American public on Wednesday, one that we'll bring you here

999
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks for listening to the

1000
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 2: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

1001
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 2: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

1002
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:56,720
Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

1003
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.