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Speaker 1: It's sponsorship time. But you know what, it's really great

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Speaker 2: And guess what.

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Speaker 1: Quint's is something that in the Todd household we already

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Speaker 1: go to. Why do we go to Quint's Because it's

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Speaker 1: a place you go where you can get some really

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Speaker 1: nice clothes without the really expensive prices. And one of

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Speaker 1: the things I've been going through is I've transitioned from

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Speaker 1: being mister cot and tie guy to wanting a little

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Speaker 1: more casual but to look nice doing it. Is I've

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Speaker 1: become mister quarter zip guy.

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Speaker 2: Well guess what.

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Speaker 1: Guess he's got amazing amounts of quarter zips. It is Quints.

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Speaker 1: I have gotten quite a few already from there. The

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Speaker 1: I just know, hey, cashmere, that's pretty good. You don't

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Speaker 1: normally get that for fifty bucks or less. Italian wool

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Speaker 1: coats that look and feel like designer the stuff. I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, right, you look at it online, you think, okay,

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Speaker 1: is this really as nice as it looks? Well, when

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Speaker 1: I got it, I was like, oh, this is real quality.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going to end up making sure I

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Speaker 1: take it to my dry cleaner so I don't screw

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you you're going to find something that is

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Speaker 1: that code so joining me now is the former share

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Speaker 1: of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Biden presidency

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Speaker 1: has been is part of the Obama presidency. It was

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Speaker 1: sort of, uh, correct me if I'm wrong, Jared, but

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Speaker 1: you were vice president Biden's economic advisor during a period

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Speaker 1: of time in the Obama presidency.

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Speaker 3: Right, exactly, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And you were in I mean it's sort of like

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Speaker 1: you've been in this world and but you were.

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Speaker 2: Were you always more in Biden's world?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? More so. I mean I was Biden's chief economist

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Speaker 3: when he was Vice president and basically moved over to

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Speaker 3: that role when he was president. I started as a

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Speaker 3: member of the Council of Economic Advisors, and then I

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Speaker 3: became chair a couple of years.

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Speaker 1: In what was your Did you do anything in the

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Speaker 1: Clinton presidency?

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Speaker 3: Yes, I did. I worked in the Labor department in

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Speaker 3: the Chief Economist's office.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you've been on this sort of this in

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Speaker 1: this role of of moving up the governmental ladders, if

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Speaker 1: you will.

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Speaker 2: For Frank, I think if you.

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Speaker 3: Made a list of Democrat economists in the DC area,

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Speaker 3: I would be yeah, right, leybe.

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Speaker 1: That's one hundred th'ts are You're very funny? And which

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Speaker 1: economist are you? Are you on the one hand or

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Speaker 1: are you on the other hand?

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Speaker 3: I am? I am. I try not to be that

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Speaker 3: that economist. I'll tell you what kind of economist I am.

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Speaker 4: In that sense, the the most economists are problematic for

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Speaker 4: politicians because they explain to them why why they can't

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Speaker 4: do what they want to do.

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Speaker 2: Right the economists can't.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the economist says, sir, I understand where you're

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Speaker 3: coming from, ma'am. I understand, but you can't do that

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Speaker 3: for these reasons. So I'm not that kind of economist.

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Speaker 3: I try to figure out, if not, you know, the optimal,

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Speaker 3: let's look at third, second, third, fourth, best ways to

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Speaker 3: get where we want to go.

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Speaker 1: So it's sort of like you've got a north star,

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Speaker 1: how can you get Maybe this isn't the best way

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Speaker 1: to do it via economic policy, but you really want

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Speaker 1: to do it, Well, here's the least damaging way to

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Speaker 1: do it?

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Speaker 2: Is that? Do you sometimes see your job exactly?

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Speaker 3: So you know, let's be concrete. You want to raise

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Speaker 3: the minimum wage, right, So there is a level to

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Speaker 3: which you could raise the minimum wage that would be

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Speaker 3: hugely problematic, and there's a level to which you could

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Speaker 3: raise it that would help low wage workers a lot

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Speaker 3: more than it would hurt them. So let's go to

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Speaker 3: the second level, not the first one.

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Speaker 1: That's totally totally makes sense. Well, let's just start with

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Speaker 1: the near term and then we're going to go. I

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Speaker 1: was intrigued. I obviously read your substack. I'm a subscriber.

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Speaker 1: I follow been reading what you've been writing lately, and

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Speaker 1: it is this You noted that it seems like the

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Speaker 1: Trump White House is stumbling into the same problem you

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Speaker 1: guys had in the Biden White House, where you want

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Speaker 1: to focus on the positive data, but the feeling and

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Speaker 1: perception of the economy is not what the data shows.

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Speaker 1: And I guess what would you be doing if you

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Speaker 1: were in the Trump White House now asked to defend

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Speaker 1: this economy.

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I wouldn't be lying. And I

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Speaker 3: actually think that's really kind of foundational. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: way we used to talk about this when we were

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Speaker 3: in the White House, we would say, correctly, we just

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Speaker 3: got a great GDP report. We just got a great

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Speaker 3: jobs report, you know, two hundred thousand jobs, three percent growth.

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Speaker 3: That would be part one. Part two would be, but

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Speaker 3: we know you're still hurting and prices are too high.

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Speaker 3: Part three would be We're going to do everything we

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Speaker 3: can to help on that. Maybe a three part message

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Speaker 3: is way too complicated. Maybe all people cared about was

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Speaker 3: that part two, they're hurting their prices are too high, right,

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Speaker 3: But we didn't tell them your prices aren't too high,

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Speaker 3: and that things are affordable, and that affordability is a

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Speaker 3: democratic con job, which is what Trump said yesterday. So

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Speaker 3: we tried to meet people where they were. I don't

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Speaker 3: think particular successfully, and I do think we talked past them,

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Speaker 3: but we never gas lit them. And I would argue

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Speaker 3: that that's what these folks are doing. B They're making

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Speaker 3: affordability a lot worse with all all the tariffs, and

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Speaker 3: of course we weren't doing that.

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Speaker 1: So, you know, one of my theories as to why

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Speaker 1: you guys and why the former president struggled to talk

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Speaker 1: about the economy and understand, and I'm curious what you

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Speaker 1: think of this thesis is that, particularly Joe Biden, he

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Speaker 1: spent a majority of his professional career in politics believing

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Speaker 1: that for the American public, the barometer for a healthy

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Speaker 1: economy was the unemployment rate, right, And frankly, he you know,

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Speaker 1: it had been forty years since inflation was had bitten

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Speaker 1: us as a country, had bitten us as political leaders. Yes,

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Speaker 1: he was certainly was there at the early you know,

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Speaker 1: in his first term in the US Senate during inflation,

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Speaker 1: during that whole period of inflation, but that in some

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Speaker 1: ways when you're and I hate to say that that

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Speaker 1: you know, but we're all human beings, you're creatures of

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Speaker 1: habit right, For the longest time, it is what the

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Speaker 1: public saw is the unemployment. Right Is that fair to

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Speaker 1: say that that maybe there was just that there was

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Speaker 1: that Biden and maybe the wider world of Biden. And

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Speaker 1: I'm curious you're whether you've thought you might have fallen

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Speaker 1: into this trap, whether you were focused too much on that,

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Speaker 1: on on the good news, on unemployment, and not fully

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Speaker 1: appreciating the inflation situation.

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Speaker 3: Well, I there's a lot in there, so let's unpack it. So,

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Speaker 3: first of all, on President Biden, I think you're spot on.

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Speaker 3: I think he came up in terms of an economic

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Speaker 3: world where if the job market is strong and you're

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Speaker 3: at full employment, that is the most important thing you

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Speaker 3: can do for working class people because if the job

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Speaker 3: market is tight, they have bargaining cloud, bargaining power that

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Speaker 3: they wouldn't otherwise have, and they can Thereby, Unions are

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Speaker 3: obviously important to him too, but you know, unions are

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Speaker 3: a relatively small share of our workforce. If you get

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Speaker 3: the unemployment rate down, you know, below four percent and

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Speaker 3: you hold it there, that's going to be fantastic for workers.

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Speaker 3: And that was absolutely the world he came up in.

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Speaker 3: And I believe he thought that if we have the jobs,

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Speaker 3: that if we have the tailwind of a strong job

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Speaker 3: market behind us, you know, economically, we should generally be

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Speaker 3: pretty fine, and especially if growth is strong as well.

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Speaker 3: Of course, we hadn't seen all that thinking evolved over

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Speaker 3: a period when the average inflation rate was you know,

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Speaker 3: between one and two percent, and so when the pandemic

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Speaker 3: came and you had the collision of constrained supply chains

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Speaker 3: and strong demand partly juiced by fiscal policy, I will

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Speaker 3: admit that led to an inflation we hadn't seen in

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Speaker 3: forty years. And yeah, sure, I mean I think it's

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Speaker 3: kind of acceptable, not acceptables the wrong way. I think

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Speaker 3: it's intellectually understandable that, you know, a forty you might

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Speaker 3: not be quite have a forty year problem in your

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Speaker 3: worldview relative to one that has been you know, really

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Speaker 3: foundational fundamental to your to your understanding through most of

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Speaker 3: your career.

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Speaker 1: Take me through your conver back when you were in

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Speaker 1: the administration about the inflation issue. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: we heard that phrase transitory a lot early on in

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Speaker 1: the first part.

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Speaker 4: And.

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Speaker 1: You know, as as it's sort of my own armchair,

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Speaker 1: you know, economists, I would say, I'm not a lawyer,

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Speaker 1: I'm not an economists, but I've had to play one

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Speaker 1: on TV for a long time, right or certainly I've

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Speaker 1: got to be just smart enough about it to ask

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Speaker 1: the right questions, I hope, and I understood what you

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Speaker 1: guys are trying to communicate, which is, hey, look, this

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Speaker 1: is a unique this is this inflation issue. Isn't all

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Speaker 1: just because we've handed out too much money. This inflation issue.

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Speaker 1: We've kinked a hose, and all of a sudden we

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Speaker 1: unkinked the hose, and here comes to supplies and it's

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Speaker 1: just doing all sorts of haywire things, and it's like

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Speaker 1: a bouncing ball. It's eventually going to stop being hugely bouncing,

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Speaker 1: and eventually it's going to get there. But it was

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Speaker 1: pretty stubborn, and it's still been pretty stubborn. And I

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Speaker 1: guess I'm curious everything you guys applied to it. Did

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Speaker 1: you think the inflation rate would be better than it

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Speaker 1: is today, better than it was even before Tariff Liberation Day?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I totally accept the premise that once he

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Speaker 1: put tariffs into the economy, we no longer can talk

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Speaker 1: about the Biden economy. It is his economy. But pre tariff,

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Speaker 1: that inflation rate was still stubbornly high. How long did

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Speaker 1: you assume, discounting the tariff situation, that we were going

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Speaker 1: to have this stubborn high inflation rate? Because I think

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Speaker 1: about the seventies, Jared, and it's like, man, tariffs destroy

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Speaker 1: three presidencies. I could argue, right, Nixon is you know,

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Speaker 1: he survives Watergate. If it's a better economy. Ford wins

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Speaker 1: if it's a better economy. Carter wins re election if

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Speaker 1: it's a better economy. And you mean inflation, you said, Terraff, Yeah, No,

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Speaker 1: I meant inflation. Yeah, inflation. What I'm trying to get

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Speaker 1: at is, you know, sort of disc I don't want

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Speaker 1: to I know, the minute he put all these tariffs

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Speaker 1: on there, it sort of it sort of could screw

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Speaker 1: with forecasting. But three April first there of this year,

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Speaker 1: it was still stubbornly high. How long do you think

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Speaker 1: it's going to take to get that inflation rate down?

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Speaker 1: And again, this is assuming we had a normal tariff policy.

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Speaker 3: Without tariff policy, I think inflation by the end of

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Speaker 3: this year, which we're now at the end of this year,

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Speaker 3: would instead of being I think the last scene the

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Speaker 3: core inflationary measures that the FED looks at, we're closer

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Speaker 3: to three than to two. I think they'd be a

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Speaker 3: lot closer to two than to I think you'd be

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Speaker 3: looking at inflation. I think the core was last seen

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Speaker 3: at two seven. I think it would be around two

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Speaker 3: two two two.

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Speaker 2: This was a half percentage point that the teriffs about it.

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Speaker 3: I know, I've seen point seven, I've seen point five.

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Speaker 3: I think point five is is a good conservative estimate.

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Speaker 3: So frankly, I actually think that inflation was behaving in

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Speaker 3: a way that made sense to me. Starting in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three. It was coming down. I mean, just if

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Speaker 3: you look at the graphic of year over year inflation,

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Speaker 3: it goes up a mountain, and that you know, that

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Speaker 3: was a traumatic mountain for us. Let me tell you,

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Speaker 3: I vividly remember the night. You know, we get the

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Speaker 3: data a day before it comes out. I remember the

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Speaker 3: night when we got the inflation report. It was June

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Speaker 3: of twenty two and it was nine percent, and you know,

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Speaker 3: we lost our you know what, But the other side

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Speaker 3: of the mountain it came down just just as just

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Speaker 3: as quickly. And really what you said earlier is completely accurate,

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Speaker 3: which is that it was the collision of a supply

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Speaker 3: shortfall and very strong demand, particularly for manufactured goods. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we were tracing numbers that showed that the consumer spending

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Speaker 3: share of manufacturing was higher than it had ever been,

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Speaker 3: And of course people weren't interacting with services. They couldn't,

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Speaker 3: so they wanted to build out the new home office

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Speaker 3: and get exercise equipment. At the same time, all that

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Speaker 3: stuff was jammed. And at the same time they had

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Speaker 3: both excess savings so they were flush, and a lot

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Speaker 3: of fiscal support so they were flush. So by twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two, I would argue that I had a very

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Speaker 3: good understanding of where inflation was. I thought it was

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Speaker 3: transitory in the sense of long transitory. You know, it

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Speaker 3: wasn't going to come down as quickly as we wanted

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Speaker 3: it to, but I knew it was going to come down.

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Speaker 3: And one reason for that, which is very distinctly different

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Speaker 3: than the nineteen seventies, is that this mysterious calculation called

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Speaker 3: inflation expectations were well anchored in the nineteen seventies, key

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Speaker 3: setters of prices and wages didn't believe inflation was going

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Speaker 3: to go back down, whereas in the COVID inflation they did.

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Speaker 3: Everybody saw that this was a shock. The FED was

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Speaker 3: still in charge, inflation expectations were still well anchored, so

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Speaker 3: I knew we'd get back down to target. At least

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Speaker 3: I thought we would before the tariffs came on.

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Speaker 2: Well, that brings me to.

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Speaker 1: Now, and it's in this decision of the FED. And

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Speaker 1: you actually framed it pretty well in one of your substecs,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know, the FED has a dual mandate,

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Speaker 1: and it's in contradiction. Right, we have a stubborn inflation rate,

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Speaker 1: but we now have a weakening jobs market.

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Speaker 2: What should be the focus of the Fed?

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Speaker 3: Well, when I wrote that piece about four days ago,

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Speaker 3: I said, I said, I think it's fifty two forty

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Speaker 3: eight inflation. That is the FED, I argued, very close call,

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Speaker 3: but that at their meeting in December ninth and tenth,

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Speaker 3: I'm a little more worried about how sticky and high

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Speaker 3: inflation is, in no small part because I'm looking at

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Speaker 3: services inflation, which is sticky and high about a point

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Speaker 3: above where you'd like it to be, and that's not

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Speaker 3: really directly connected to the tariffs. And you know a

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Speaker 3: number of people are like, well, aren't you worried about

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Speaker 3: the job market and the fact that the unemployment rate

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Speaker 3: has climbed. It's a point above where it was in

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Speaker 3: April of twenty three. It's four point four percent. It

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Speaker 3: was three point four percent in April of twenty three.

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Speaker 3: People say, well, four point four isn't that high. Well,

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Speaker 3: it's pretty high, but it used to be three point four.

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Speaker 3: So you know, this morning we learned that the ADP,

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Speaker 3: the payroll processing you know that according to them, payroll

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Speaker 3: employment had a negative handle in November. It fell by

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Speaker 3: forty thousand. So now I'm really at a coin flip.

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Speaker 3: But you know, I think probably i'd want to sit

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Speaker 3: at that table and hear what people said. I think

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Speaker 3: I probably am a little more worried about sticky inflation

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Speaker 3: than the average person right now.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting because you have, I mean, what is your

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Speaker 1: understanding of why we have a job market that is

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Speaker 1: potentially going negative?

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Speaker 2: I mean, is it?

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Speaker 1: I mean, what it appears to me is you have

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Speaker 1: a lot of big companies who are trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out what kind of efficiencies AI is going to bring.

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Speaker 1: And right now they're not filling heads. They're not cutting jobs,

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Speaker 1: but they're not filling heads until they figure out how

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Speaker 1: many heads can they avoid having to fill? How good

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Speaker 1: is this AI transition? Am I sort of summarized.

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Speaker 3: Again, I think you're spat on and I'm going to

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Speaker 3: tell you something that I think is really worrisome that

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Speaker 3: I haven't had enough of a chance to talk about.

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Speaker 3: So I'll get into that in a second, which is

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Speaker 3: related to what you just said. Look, this job market

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Speaker 3: is often described as low higher low fire, which is

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Speaker 3: what you just said. We have a very low hiring rate.

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Speaker 3: It's very difficult for people coming into the job market

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Speaker 3: to get work. We're seeing unemployment rates.

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Speaker 1: I get a graduating senior in college. Trust me, she's

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Speaker 1: already stressed. She's keep telling her you got another six

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Speaker 1: months relaxed, Yeah, pretty stretched out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you should tell her that the you know,

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Speaker 3: the unemployment rate for college graduates is still you know,

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Speaker 3: a lot lower than for non college gradual although for

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Speaker 3: the newly minted ones it is it is too high

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Speaker 3: for exactly the reasons we're saying. We haven't seen big

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Speaker 3: layoffs yet, and you can't have a recession without layoffs.

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Speaker 3: So I think that the uncertainty around both the tariffs,

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Speaker 3: the impact of AI, and also deportations are all one

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Speaker 3: reason we're stuck in a low, higher, low fire labor market.

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Speaker 3: It is the case that when you have fewer people

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Speaker 3: coming into the job market because of diminished immigration, you

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Speaker 3: actually don't need as many jobs to keep the unemployment

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Speaker 3: rate from going up. That's called the break even rate.

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Speaker 3: And when I was in the White House, the break

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Speaker 3: even rate was, you know, one hundred and fifty thousand.

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Speaker 3: Now it's half of that because the immigration impacts and

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Speaker 3: aging boomers are reducing labor supply, but we still have

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Speaker 3: labor demand weaker than labor supply, and that's why unemployment

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Speaker 3: has been going up. Now on the AI point, here's

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Speaker 3: the thing I wanted to say, because of exactly what

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Speaker 3: you just said, employers are trying to figure out how

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Speaker 3: many people they can reduce, what kind of their headcount

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Speaker 3: they can reduce because of the work that AI can do,

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Speaker 3: which they're confused about, and they haven't really been able

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Speaker 3: to figure it out. The worst thing that could happen

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Speaker 3: right now would be a recession with a lot of layoffs.

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Speaker 3: And the reason is is that when we've seen this

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Speaker 3: is an historical observation, when we've seen technology displacing workers

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Speaker 3: technology is that it's most disemploying when you're in a downturn,

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Speaker 3: because employers lay off a big chunk of their workforce,

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Speaker 3: and the question becomes how few can and I hire

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Speaker 3: back right right right right now. They're stuck with what

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Speaker 3: they've got and they don't want to lay a bunch

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Speaker 3: of people off because they just don't know where it's going.

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Speaker 3: But man, if the demand falls out from this situation

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Speaker 3: and they're in a situation where they lay off twenty

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Speaker 3: five percent of other workforce, they're going to be thinking

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Speaker 3: I might only be able to I might just be

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Speaker 3: able to bring back five percent, you know, just a

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Speaker 3: few of those workers and get ahead.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're it's going to be. I think

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Speaker 1: we're going to see it percolate in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: But I think twenty twenty eight as a campaign conversation,

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Speaker 1: as a narrative, is sort of what voters fear of

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Speaker 1: AI displacement is going.

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Speaker 2: To be a.

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Speaker 1: Is going to be a demand on candidates to have

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Speaker 1: a plan. Look, we can debate whether this is going

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Speaker 1: to happen.

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Speaker 2: The next three years or we're still ten years away

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Speaker 2: from this.

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Speaker 1: And I devour every bit of forecasting data I can

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Speaker 1: find on this, And you know, you have these different

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Speaker 1: AI you know, sort of doom the doom and gloom

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Speaker 1: folks AIS. You know, I sort of I'm pro human race,

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Speaker 1: meaning I think we are not going to allow ourselves

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Speaker 1: to be replaced by robots like we're going to We're

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Speaker 1: a pretty impressive species. We survive a lot. You know,

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Speaker 1: We're not going to let robots displace us. But the

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Speaker 1: fear of this, I think is going. So look, you

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Speaker 1: probably already are talking to potential presidential candidates, people wanting

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Speaker 1: to just get your advice of you know, what's a

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Speaker 1: feasible way? I mean, what did we do wrong during

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Speaker 1: the transition to all these free trade agreements in the

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Speaker 1: in the late eighties and early nineties with and all

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Speaker 1: of them included promises of money for job retraining and

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Speaker 1: all of this.

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Speaker 2: It didn't really work.

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Speaker 3: I can answer this question for you. It's a great question.

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Speaker 2: Is that where AI is going?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I assume you know, I've already heard Mark

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Speaker 1: Kelly went out there and said recently, I guess we

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Speaker 1: ought to have a fund where these AI companies ought

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Speaker 1: to ought to you know, be taxed. Maybe you tax

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Speaker 1: the data centers and there's a special tax of the

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Speaker 1: data centers that just goes to job displacement issues. But

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Speaker 1: what does this policy look like? What do you think

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Speaker 1: is feasible here?

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Speaker 3: So I have an answer to question. I have an

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Speaker 3: answer to this question. First of all, let me say

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00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 3: the following, which you would know better than me. But

437
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: I'll bet I'm right about this. If you talk to

438
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 3: the average economists. I spend two months of the year

439
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 3: now at Stanford. So if you're out, if you're in

440
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: Silicon Valley, if you talk to a lot of people

441
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 3: in the Beltway about AI, they're a lot more excited

442
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 3: than the average voter is. So that's one assertion, Jared.

443
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: It's remarkable. I find it remark we as a country,

444
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 1: we are the most negative about AI collectively then other

445
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 1: First world countries. I've watched this. It's fascinating how negative

446
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: we are about it. So what I think it's because

447
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: social media destroyed us, and I think people fear the

448
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 1: same geniuses that brought us social media are being allowed

449
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: to run amuck on AI.

450
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 2: Good luck.

451
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 3: By the way, you're speaking to someone who just finished

452
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 3: watching the Netflix show Adolescents last night, So oh my god,

453
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 3: talk about social media and its distortions. But but I'm

454
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 3: with you, So we are on you know, we are.

455
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 3: We are shoulder to shoulder on this. And one of

456
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 3: the things I tell people is members who are thinking

457
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,239
Speaker 3: of working on the figuring out, trying to figure out

458
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: how to run on this is precisely that that don't

459
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: think everybody out there thinks AI is as cool as

460
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: you do. They're threatened by it. And you just mentioned

461
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 3: two things. You mentioned the lack of preparation for people

462
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: who were hurt by expanded globalization in the nineties when

463
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: China and the two thousands, when China, you know, at

464
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: Bill Clinton's beets, China joins the WTO and we get

465
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: our thoughts kicked and no one was ready for that.

466
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 3: And then the ignoring of the impact of social media

467
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 3: to two incredibly portentious existential examples of politicians failing to

468
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 3: create guardrails to protect people from a massive shock. And

469
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 3: so you know, won't be tied us if we make

470
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 3: that mistake again.

471
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: Now, I think, Jared, we already have.

472
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I look at it this hands off, you know,

473
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: I you know, we were, well, what you imagine can

474
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: you imagine if we had outsourced the Manhattan Project?

475
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 3: Yeah?

476
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: But what this crazy?

477
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: What do you said yourself a minute ago, correctly that

478
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 3: we do not yet know the extent to which AI

479
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 3: is going to displace people in the workforce. What you

480
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 3: do in that situation is you hope for the best

481
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 3: and you plan for the worst. Now, what we didn't

482
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 3: do in the globalization era when globalization was taking off,

483
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 3: we hoped for the best, and we didn't plan for

484
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: the worst. And in fact, we did the thing that

485
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: economists always do. Here's here's a curse word that economists

486
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 3: use all the time. Transition. They'll be a transition.

487
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: Well, transitions to it a lot of work there. Transition means, mister,

488
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: people are going to lose their entire livelihood.

489
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 3: But they'll be a transition every period. But we'll be fine.

490
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 3: So when you hear an economist Blase talk about transition,

491
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 3: run for the hill. So so you don't so what

492
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: we need here in my So here's the policy that

493
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: I'm trying to get people interested in. It may sound

494
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: a little radical, but I don't think it is a

495
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: job's guarantee, a federal jobs guarantee if you are displaced

496
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 3: from your job because of AI. There's actually a lot

497
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 3: of stuff that needs to get done in this country,

498
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 3: and I can't do a lot of it. There's building infrastructure,

499
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 3: there's human care, there's helping in the healthcare sector. There

500
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 3: is a lot of work that needs to be done.

501
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: Many of these sectors are underfunded, in part because so

502
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 3: much is going into AI and data centers. We need

503
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: to have a job guarantee program wherein if you're displaced

504
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 3: to AI, we can quickly get you back up and

505
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 3: running with remunerative, dignity inducing employment. So it's easier said

506
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: than done. But we've had programs like that in the past.

507
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 3: We've just never really implemented them.

508
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: It was just gonna well. I mean that was the

509
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: New Deal.

510
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: No exactly, that was the New Deal, and that actually

511
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 3: worked out well. Now, we tried something in the eighties

512
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: called SITA that was a much scaleback version of that.

513
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 3: And you know, if you go to the Center. I'm

514
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: also a policy fellow at the Center for American Progress.

515
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 3: You know, numerous years ago they were talking about a

516
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 3: jobs guarantee and have documents about how to do it.

517
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 3: So it's not something no one's ever thought about before,

518
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 3: and I'd like to dust that policy often get people

519
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: thinking about it.

520
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: Would you do a jobs guarantee before you would do

521
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 1: universal basic income?

522
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 3: Yes? I think universal basic income pales beside a job

523
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: guarantee because people don't just want income. They want to

524
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,959
Speaker 3: be productive, they want to work, they want to contribute.

525
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: They want community.

526
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: I mean, in some ways work is another community. And

527
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: I think one of the things we agree consistently and

528
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 1: constantly crave is community. I want to tackle something else

529
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: that you spend.

530
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 3: By the way, just aside, I think we're getting way

531
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 3: too much of our community online.

532
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: Of course, well you know it gets it's something. You know,

533
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: it's funny to go back to the social media metaphor

534
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: that I was using about AI. You know, we don't

535
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 1: agree collectively on a lot of things in America these days,

536
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: but there is one issue that is united left and right.

537
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: It hasn't mattered if it was a very red state

538
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: legislature or a very blue state legislature. They have all

539
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: instituted the cell phone bandoned schools in some form or

540
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: another right. And you know, the libertarians have been convinced. Right,

541
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: those that are worried about, you know, single moms and

542
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: single parents having access to everybody's realizing, hey, this has

543
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: been terrible, and we don't often. So that tells me

544
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: something here that in some ways the public is wiser

545
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: about this than they usually are. I always say the

546
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: electric the voters, you know, voters have that voters are

547
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: telling you something. Listen to them. Just because you don't

548
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: like the outcome, They're telling you something. Listen to what

549
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: they're saying.

550
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: Of course, so they it is.

551
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: It makes me think that actually getting tough on tech

552
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: and putting guardrails on AI, I think is going to

553
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: be a necessity for any successful candidate for office in

554
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: twenty eight. And I don't think it's I don't think

555
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: it is. This is something that's just a d side

556
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: thing or an our side thing. I think this the

557
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: fact that you have this collective concern about what phones

558
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: and social media has done to our kids means we

559
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: realize these technological changes have huge impacts on our lives.

560
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 1: And I don't think we fully you know, we as

561
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: you said we in this case, we're so excited about

562
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: what's happening that we're you know, and I guess this

563
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: is exactly what life was like in the nineteen teens,

564
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: in the nineteen twenty.

565
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think all of that's correct. I mean, I

566
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 3: think there's another side of the issue that you have

567
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 3: to think about if you're advising politicians or you're thinking

568
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 3: about twenty six or twenty eight, which is that if

569
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 3: you talk to the companies themselves, even if you're saying, hey,

570
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 3: and you mentioned Mark Kelly before, I'm in Virginia. At

571
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: this point, thirty nine percent of the energy in Virginia

572
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: is that's being produced. The electricity is being used by

573
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: data centers.

574
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: Oh, and don't think that they're not going to get demonized.

575
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: Yes on cost issues. Yeah.

576
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: So you know the thing is you go to the

577
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 3: AI companies, you go to the data centers, and you

578
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 3: tell them you're gonna have to pair back. You're going

579
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 3: to have to have guardrails. You're gonna have to uh

580
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: compensate the innocent bystanders who electricity bills are getting whacked

581
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: by you. And some of them are going to say

582
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 3: to you, fine, I'll go to Saudi Arabia. And you

583
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: know that's the political challenge that I was dealing with

584
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 3: in the White House. You know, we were we were

585
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 3: thinking about these issues, and you know, these companies were

586
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 3: threatening us with you know, with exits. Frankly, I'll take

587
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 3: that threat because of what you're describing is so important

588
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: to put those guardrails in place.

589
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 2: Well, I'm let's see.

590
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I keep you know, I keep thinking there

591
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: is a left right coalition here that does want to

592
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: to to put some guardrails on tech right. When you

593
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: get people like Lena Khan and Steve Bannon both concerned

594
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: about this concentration of power, but it hasn't translated. I

595
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: mean this, this is just such an effectless Congress, and

596
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: frankly it hasn't mattered the last ten years. Congress has

597
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: been hesitant to get into the regulatory Well, they do oversight,

598
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: but they won't do the regulatory change.

599
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: I mean, crypto is a good analogy. I mean, I

600
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 3: think crypto is largely an accident going out to happen

601
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 3: in terms of systemic risk to the economy. But what

602
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: did the crypto bros do? They lobbied up faster than

603
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: any industry I've ever seen. So you know, these data

604
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 3: centers are the mag seven. I just looked this up.

605
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 3: The market capitalization of the mag seven is twenty two

606
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 3: trillion dollars, So you know they have all the resources

607
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 3: they need to purchase all the all the deregulation they want.

608
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: If you strip out the Magnificent Seven, it's the rest

609
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: of our is the rest of the publicly traded companies.

610
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I've seen some analysis that say, you know what,

611
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: we're no companies. Companies aren't doing that well, so I

612
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 1: got it. But the Big seven is propping everything up.

613
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 3: So I've got a great it's funny you should ask

614
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 3: that because I recently backed out a number that I

615
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: thought was really really compelling answer to that question, unless

616
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 3: it's too obscure, So I'll test it on you and

617
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 3: see if it works. Now this is a few days old,

618
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: but I'm sure it doesn't matter. If you look at

619
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: the year over year increase in the S and P

620
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: five hundred, it's eleven percent. If you then that's that

621
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 3: that's weighted, meaning that you waited by market capitalization. So

622
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: that's how the S and P is measured.

623
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: Every day the biggest cap companies. I mean, you know,

624
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: I have this thesis that the reason we've seen crypto

625
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: prices plummet is that, you know, the crypto folks realize

626
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: that this is probably not a real asset, they hurry

627
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: up and sell it and then buy the magnificent seven.

628
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 3: Right, So the magnificent seven get a huge weight. I mean,

629
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 3: they're not all public like AI is obviously still a

630
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 3: private company. But all I'm saying is that that eleven

631
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 3: percent increase in the S and P is a weighted

632
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 3: measure weighted by market capitalization. You can also look at

633
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 3: an unweighted measure of the S and P. That's up

634
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 3: point eight percent over the last year, eleven percent weighted

635
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 3: point eight unweighted. We have an S and P seven

636
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 3: and an S and P four ninety three, and the

637
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 3: SNB four ninety three is pretty flat.

638
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 2: Well that tells you it's flat or actually negative.

639
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think I think it's uh, I

640
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,919
Speaker 3: think it's flat. I mean I've looked at the I've

641
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: actually looked at the four ninety three or whatever it is,

642
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 3: because again, not every one of the seven is sling.

643
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's flat. It's pretty flat.

644
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: Let me get into a couple other issues. That one

645
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: that you wrote about in talks about healthcare, and look,

646
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: this is such the weirdest issue because it's it's not

647
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: a private sector. You know, it's not a private enterprise.

648
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: It's a huge part of the economy, but it's super regulated.

649
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 1: But at the same time, it's this sort of public

650
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: private and it's a mess, right, And you know, I

651
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: look at yeah, I look at I'll just take my

652
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: little observation, which actually is going to be through the

653
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: prism of college football. But the University of Miami is

654
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: able to spend a lot more money on football now

655
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: because they're making so much money and They're not alone.

656
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: This is a lot of universities.

657
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: A lot of universities are funding some of their high

658
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: priced outlays, whether it's sports, building, new buildings, et cetera,

659
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: because they have health systems that are nonprofits, Jared, who

660
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: are making money hand over fist. Because it's a nonprofit,

661
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: you got to immediately take whatever profits you make and

662
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: put it back into the institution. In this case, it's

663
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: in university athletics, the Longhorns USC Miami.

664
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 2: There's quite a few that have done this.

665
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 1: But what it tells me is if we have a

666
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 1: system and our healthcare system, and if they just take

667
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: hospitals where there's more money to be made being a

668
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 1: nonprofit hospital system than it is to be a for

669
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: profit hospital system, what are we doing here? Like something

670
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: seems off? This is this is a Jerry rigged economy.

671
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 1: This isn't a real free market exactly right.

672
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 3: I mean the way I always say it, I mean,

673
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: your your analogy is really interesting. It's it's fairly complex.

674
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: Here's a simple way to say, I think a similar thing.

675
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 3: If I show up to the supermarket hungry, they don't

676
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 3: have to feed me. If I show up to the

677
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 3: hospital sick, they have to treat me. That takes it

678
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 3: out of the market right away. And every single other

679
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,280
Speaker 3: advanced economy has figured it out that this that trying

680
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,959
Speaker 3: to make this a a for profit or a kind

681
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 3: of weirdly structured nonprofit sector of the type you just described,

682
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 3: is going to mean an economy that spends you know,

683
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 3: eighteen percent of its GDP on healthcare. That's US versus

684
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 3: ten or eleven percent, which is the average for every

685
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 3: other advanced economy. And you might say, well, surely they

686
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 3: have worst outcomes than we do, given that they're spending

687
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 3: eight percent nine percent of GDP less they do not.

688
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 3: They have as good, if not better outcomes than we do.

689
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 3: What they don't have is, you know, five miles from

690
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,839
Speaker 3: where I live, massive houses on the Potomac that are

691
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: owned by you know, lobbyists for big pharma. So, by

692
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: dint of making this an inelastically demanded good, if you

693
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 3: need healthcare, you need it. It's not shoppable. You can't

694
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 3: get in the hospital, you can't go in the ambulance

695
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 3: and say, wait a second, I'm going to call a

696
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 3: cheaper ambulance. You know, it's not shoppable. It's inelastically demanded.

697
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 3: Uh and uh, the prices are completely non transparent. You

698
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 3: never really know what you're paying for anything, and you know,

699
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 3: expect people not to have their hands in the healthcare

700
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: cookie jar, which of course they do. So there is

701
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 3: a ton of work to be done there. You know,

702
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 3: I myself, along with Neil Mahoney, just wrote a piece

703
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,879
Speaker 3: on how to make health you know, ideas that would

704
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 3: make healthcare a lot more affordable. They're out there. We've

705
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 3: seen other other countries do them. We should do them.

706
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: Too, because, look, I have empathy for those members of

707
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: Congress are going, why are we subsidizing insurance companies?

708
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 2: Right? So I have empathy for that.

709
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 1: At the same time, you know, look, we don't want

710
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 1: to We don't have time to transition, and these folks

711
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: need affordable health care. So it's it's one of those

712
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: where you're like, boy, this sub what are we doing this?

713
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,399
Speaker 1: You know, why don't we reform the insurance industry, Why

714
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: don't we reform hospital payment systems? Why don't we reform

715
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: you know, before we figure out what the right right

716
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 1: structure is to guarantee healthcare access for the public. And

717
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: it feels as if, you know, because we can't do

718
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 1: the one we're almost stuck just trying to well, let's

719
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: limit the damage to the average American, but we are

720
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: only handing more money to a couple of big industries.

721
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 3: You're so right. I mean, I'll push back a little

722
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 3: bit on some of the things you said, but broadly speaking,

723
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: you're exactly right. And you know, I actually I think

724
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: like you. When Republicans were saying during the shutdown debate

725
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 3: about you know, giving you know, tens of billions of

726
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 3: dollars to in these premium tax credits to people so

727
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 3: that they could buy, so that their premiums in the

728
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 3: Affordable Character exchanges don't double. Republics, well, that's just throwing

729
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 3: good money after bad and I don't disagree with that. However,

730
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 3: if you don't do it, those premiums are going to double. No.

731
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: Right, Like it feels like we're being we're all being

732
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 1: held hostile by the insurance companies.

733
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 3: Okay, So here's what I want to push back a

734
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 3: little bit. Okay, it's not you know, the Affordable Care

735
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 3: Act did more to control health care spending than your

736
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 3: wrap a second ago would have you think. Now, if

737
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 3: it solved the problem, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

738
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 3: Far from solve the problem. But it did institute a

739
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 3: number of things that led, especially Medicare costs to grow

740
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 3: considerably more slowly, which actually has helped us in the

741
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 3: fiscal front. Some of those things, and almost all of

742
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 3: those had to do with controlling costs. The problem is

743
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: that there are, relative to all these other economies that

744
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: spend half of what we do on healthcare as a

745
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 3: share of the economy, we have very few cost controls.

746
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 3: The ones that we do have actually work. Giving Medicare

747
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 3: the ability to negotiate for lower drug prices. That's worked,

748
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,879
Speaker 3: But there's fifteen drugs on that formulary, and you need

749
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:04,399
Speaker 3: to have hundreds restricting what the insurance restricting the profitability

750
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: of insurance companies if they're not using enough of their

751
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 3: of their profits to pay out that That was a

752
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: cap that was put in on Obamacare. You know, that's

753
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 3: been helpful as well. So that's the way forward, and

754
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: it means a huge political fight, but that's the fight

755
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 3: we have to have.

756
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,399
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762
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764
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766
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,600
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767
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768
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769
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772
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773
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776
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777
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782
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: I get the fight part and all this, But you know,

783
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 1: let let's say you get a fresh administration in a

784
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: fresh Congress. What's the simplest thing we could do first

785
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: as a as a as a federal government to you know,

786
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: chip away at this.

787
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the simplest thing is Medicare for More. If

788
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 3: you were talking to Bernie Sanders, it would be Medicare

789
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 3: for all, you know, but you're talking to me, and

790
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 3: so it's Medicare for More. And what that means is

791
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 3: is lowering the age of Medicare.

792
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 2: I've heard fifty. You would you go down to fifty?

793
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 2: Has been the number I've always seen.

794
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, And so you know, because it's you might hear

795
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 3: people talking about a public option that's really very similar

796
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 3: to what I'm talking about. And this is the idea

797
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: that whether you're in your workplace looking at what you

798
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 3: can choose, or you're going into the Obamacare exchanges, you

799
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,439
Speaker 3: can you know if you're if you're of a certain age,

800
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 3: you can choose Medicare, which is, you know, a less

801
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 3: expensive form of care because of the kinds of cost

802
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 3: controls I mentioned earlier. And you know someone who's on

803
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 3: it now it works well.

804
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 2: Right meyess this why you know it's interesting.

805
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 1: Did did you expect when the Affordable Care Act happened

806
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,479
Speaker 1: and the idea was there was there was a hope

807
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: that you'd have more insurance companies come into the marketplace.

808
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 1: Did you think we would have the big you know,

809
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: the progressives us AA, GEICO. I don't think they really

810
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: did get into the marketplace. Did you assume more would

811
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: have jumped into this?

812
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 3: I did, and I do think that competition has been

813
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 3: somewhat insufficient, uh in that space.

814
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 1: You know, every day is a United Healthcare buying up

815
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:45,240
Speaker 1: another company.

816
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: Exactly. There's vertical, there's vertical integration, there's horizontal vertical meaning

817
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: up and you know, up and down through the hospital systems,

818
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 3: and then there's far off. So so there's there's that

819
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,760
Speaker 3: kind of integration, particularly in some of our larger cities,

820
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: is putting upward pressure on costs. And in the piece

821
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 3: that Neil Mahoney and I just wrote, we went after

822
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 3: that we said we have to we have to block that.

823
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 3: You know, you have a lot of investors supporting that

824
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 3: kind of integration. But on the insurance point, remember when

825
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 3: we did the ACA, we made a political because I

826
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 3: was in the Obama administration, that we made a political

827
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 3: calculation that we were going to go you know, through

828
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 3: the insurance companies, not around them. We were going to

829
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 3: adapt them as allies. No.

830
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 1: I mean, that was the mistake that Clinton the Clinton's made, right,

831
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 1: which was trying to go after the insurance companies. And

832
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 1: Thelman Leewe wasn't Thelman Louis, Hary and Louise, sorry them

833
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: and Louise was the movie. Harry and Louise became the

834
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 1: faces of the opposition, you know, and that it I

835
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 1: mean I understood the you're right, you guys made it

836
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: political toa hey, we're going to have Harry and Louise

837
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 1: on our side, which they if I remember they actually

838
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 1: re up the ad and work correct.

839
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,399
Speaker 3: Well they they We never would have legislated that if

840
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 3: we had. I think if we had gone with the

841
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 3: you know, trying to crowd them out, and you know,

842
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 3: I think that's why Medicare for More is going to

843
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:09,879
Speaker 3: be a tough sell because they recognize that that kind

844
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 3: of competition, they don't want to compete with the government.

845
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 3: They recognize that Medicare can provide less expensive health care

846
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,760
Speaker 3: for people, and you know, they kind of are resigned

847
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 3: to assigning that to seniors. But if you take that

848
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 3: down to fifty, they're going to fight you tooth and

849
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 3: nail for those mansion reasons I said before. But we

850
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 3: still have to go there.

851
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: Well, it seems especially if we're living longer. I mean,

852
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,240
Speaker 1: it just I guess that's got to be the fear.

853
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: I mean, that would be the argument against bringing the

854
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 1: age down. Medicare is only going to get more stressed

855
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: because people are going to be living longer and on

856
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: Medicare longer.

857
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 3: Well, not necessarily because we're not getting into the policy weeds.

858
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 3: So it's not that this is going to be free

859
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 3: for people. I mean, Medicare is not free for anybody.

860
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 3: Now you're still you know, part and all that. No,

861
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 3: they would have to pay an actuarily fair premium. Right

862
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 3: if you're on Medicare. It's not free. It's not like Medicaid,

863
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 3: which is you know, kind of free healthcare, but that

864
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 3: premium is going to be considerably lower than what you're

865
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 3: paying to the private sector.

866
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, future of work, not just AI, but the length

867
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 1: of the work week. Ye, there's been chatter about this

868
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: for multiple generations, right, and what the what the work

869
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: week is going to be? You're starting to see I

870
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: think Bernie Sanders is advocating a thirty two hour work week,

871
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: but it really all goes back to what's full time.

872
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,439
Speaker 1: And because what full time, what the definition of full

873
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: time is then of course triggers whether you get benefits

874
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 1: or not. And so that's why this is I think

875
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 1: an important issue. Where are you on that issue and

876
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: is that something that you think is coming.

877
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, the way Senator Sanders talks about

878
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 3: it is he wants people to work eight hours less

879
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 3: per week but not take a cut and pay. And

880
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:18,439
Speaker 3: that strikes me as you know, unrealistic. I don't see

881
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 3: how that works. I think that leads to lots of

882
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 3: unintended consequences that would be detrimental to to workers. If

883
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: you wanted to have a for the option of a

884
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 3: four hour week, a four day week, and you know,

885
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 3: people could still be considered working full time and get

886
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: those same sorts of benefits. You know, that's the conversation

887
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 3: worth having. But you know, output would go down and

888
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 3: so we you know, we'd have less we'd have less

889
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,359
Speaker 3: growth presumably, and that's kind of a trade off. It's

890
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: interesting because for economists a lot of time, social welfare

891
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 3: well being is too easily analogized to GDP. But if

892
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 3: I told you we can have less GDP but we

893
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 3: can work less hard, you might say Europe, and.

894
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: You know that is what somebody would say, Europe. Look

895
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 1: at them and you might say, that's right. And we

896
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: we we we drove right past them in our GDP

897
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 1: over the way we drove right past.

898
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:15,840
Speaker 3: Them a GDP. But when it comes to if you

899
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 3: actually look at measures of happiness, you know they actually

900
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,280
Speaker 3: kick our butts in a lot of ways, especially around

901
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 3: this issue of work. So the problem I have with

902
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 3: the conversation is when it sounds like there's no trade off.

903
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 3: If you accept that there's a growth trade off, but

904
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 3: maybe you improve social welfare, fine, I'd be willing to,

905
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 3: you know, entertain that idea. It's not something I think

906
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 3: about a lot though these days, and it's not even

907
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 3: really on my list of policy ideas. Why because affordability

908
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 3: is such a huge issue right now, and I think

909
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 3: it's been for a while and it's going to be

910
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: going forward, and if you're working one day less, you're

911
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 3: going to make less and life is going to be

912
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 3: you know, presumably even less affordable. So I think that

913
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:57,439
Speaker 3: that's a real challenge right now.

914
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 1: No, in fact, I think the more like I think

915
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 1: the near term future of work, certainly for my kids,

916
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: is I assume and frankly that I look at the

917
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 1: situation I've put together for myself, it's probably similar to

918
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: what you've put together. Is you don't have one job,

919
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: you have four or five jobs, and that that is

920
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:19,760
Speaker 1: going there is going to be a larger and larger

921
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 1: segment of the population that is going to have multiple

922
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 1: income streams. How does what does federal how does federal

923
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: policy have to change to support uh an economy that's

924
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: going to have more essentially more people in the I

925
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: don't like to use gig work because I think people

926
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 1: immediately assume, oh, uber driver. I don't think that's going

927
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 1: to you know, you know, it could be just all

928
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 1: sorts of things, could be part of the service economy,

929
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: of professional economy, et cetera.

930
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think in two major ways. One we've actually

931
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 3: talked about, which is healthcare. Of course, most working age

932
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 3: people get their healthcare not just for them, but for

933
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 3: their family through the employer. So if we move to

934
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 3: a situation where you're not as connected to one employer

935
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 3: such that you have employer sponsored insurance, we're going to

936
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 3: need a system like Medicare for more. The Obamacare exchanges,

937
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 3: by the way, were invented to help solve that problem,

938
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 3: but they're you know, they're kind of clue g and

939
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 3: they're kind of expensive, and you and I already talked

940
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 3: about that. So we have to make sure that you know,

941
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 3: we we have a very uniquely weird and kind of

942
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:32,479
Speaker 3: dumb system in this country where we we have most

943
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 3: working age people getting their healthcare through work. You know,

944
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 3: that's a huge burden on companies that would rather make

945
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 3: cars and not provide health insurance. So breaking that asunder.

946
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 3: You know, it has historical roots that we can get into.

947
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 3: After World War Two when there were wage freezes in place.

948
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 3: You have to figure out a way to give people

949
00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 3: more benefits, but that would be a great place to start.

950
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 3: And secondly, labor standards, the umbrella of labor standards, you know,

951
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: wage protections, unemployment, insurance, time pay. That's all connected to

952
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 3: traditional work at traditional schedules. So you'd want that umbrella

953
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: to be reshaped to protect people who didn't necessarily have

954
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 3: traditional work arrangements.

955
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: Well, you're right.

956
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 1: I remember that was one of the art pro one

957
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 1: of the arguments that the Obama administration was using to

958
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 1: sell the Affordable Care Act, that hey, portability, you don't

959
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 1: have to you know, you can, you can work part

960
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: time at a company without worrying that. You know, you

961
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 1: don't feel like you can leave. You know that sort

962
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 1: of thing. You're not stuck in a job, right job

963
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 1: because of healthcare. At the same time, I do worry

964
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: about companies offering a lot of contract work, which is

965
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: code for I ain't giving you any benefits.

966
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and you know that's another reason why healthcare form

967
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 3: is so vital. And again those a lot of those

968
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 3: folks are getting healthcare on the exchanges right now, and

969
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: you know, it's better than it's better than not being covered,

970
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 3: but they don't love it.

971
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about two truck policies and what

972
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 1: you make of them. And in the if you were

973
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 1: part of the next administration, would you try to scrap

974
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 1: it or enhance it.

975
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 2: One is no tax on tips.

976
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 1: I was amused the other day by an article that

977
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 1: I R S agents have to figure out is this

978
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 1: pornography or not pornography? I mean I just sort of like, oh, wow, well,

979
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 1: you know, all of a sudden, a whole bunch of

980
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: sixteen year old boys might volunteer to work at the

981
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 1: I R S or intern Sorry.

982
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I think that's really about Do you want

983
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 3: to say the second one again?

984
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 4: Well?

985
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 1: The second The second one is that is the these

986
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: new essentially baby bonds that you know, they're calling them

987
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,759
Speaker 1: Trump accounts. But the but the Michael Dell, you know

988
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,280
Speaker 1: that who just actually added to to sort of expand

989
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 1: the pool. I want to get into that a minute,

990
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: but let's start with no tax on tips, because you know,

991
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 1: my joke has been I'd like to be paid all

992
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 1: in tips, now, please exactly.

993
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 3: So, the first thing we worried about, literally thirty seconds

994
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 3: after somebody told me about that, I said, you're gonna

995
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 3: have a lot of you know, stockbrokers who are saying,

996
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 3: you know, I earn a dollar a year and the

997
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 3: rest is tempts. Now, they did try to structure the

998
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 3: policy to block that, and that just adds a level

999
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 3: of complexity that is really the antithesis of smart tax policy.

1000
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 3: The minute you have eighty occupations that are okay and

1001
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 3: a bunch that aren't, you can imagine what's going to

1002
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 3: go on in tax court.

1003
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:36,240
Speaker 1: And what's a good thing you're getting rid of IRS

1004
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 1: agents because you know.

1005
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, right. So the first problem is is that it's

1006
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 3: easy to game, and I suspect that their guardrails are insufficient.

1007
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 3: The second problem is that there are a lot of

1008
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 3: low wage workers who get tips and don't pay any

1009
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:58,959
Speaker 3: federal income tax, so this doesn't help them at all.

1010
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 3: You know, most low wage workers simply don't have a

1011
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:06,439
Speaker 3: federal tax liability, so it means nothing to them. And

1012
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 3: then you know, uh, the third problem is, you know,

1013
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 3: we actually have a very significant revenue problem in this country,

1014
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:20,879
Speaker 3: and so tax cuts are one reason why we are

1015
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 3: looking at a really unsustainable fiscal path. So I think

1016
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,439
Speaker 3: it's complex, I think it's poorly targeted, and I think

1017
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 3: it's a waste.

1018
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 1: But it was like I was just going to say,

1019
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 1: the problem you have is it sort of strikes me

1020
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 1: as what she said, like, look, well we had to

1021
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: work through the insurance companies even though we didn't want to.

1022
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 2: This feels like a.

1023
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 1: Policy that that that nobody's going to be wanting to

1024
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,359
Speaker 1: be the member of Congress that says no, no, no,

1025
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 1: no no, let's bring taxing.

1026
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 2: Let's put tips back into income taxable income.

1027
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're probably right, and so you know the minute

1028
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 3: you open it's so much easier to grant a tax

1029
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 3: cut than to take it back. Obviously. I mean, I

1030
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:04,399
Speaker 3: think if we start seeing a lot of fraud, which

1031
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 3: I predictably will, at least we might be in a

1032
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 3: market where we can put up more guardrails.

1033
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,839
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Trump baby bonds or you know,

1034
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 1: the the the birth and I guess this is their

1035
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 1: way of encouraging trying to encourage uh more families, let's

1036
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 1: be you know which. And you guys were fighting for

1037
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: the child the childcare text credit. Yeah, I sort of

1038
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 1: believe that. Frankly, I think you guys should have died

1039
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 1: on that hill. And I don't know why you didn't politically.

1040
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 3: But in terms of what do you mean like.

1041
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,480
Speaker 2: Fight, never have given it up on it.

1042
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:44,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that was that was something worth

1043
00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 1: losing an election, you know, taking it to the ballot box.

1044
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 1: I just you know, never never giving up on it.

1045
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 1: I understand why. You know, you thought, well, we have

1046
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 1: a bigger deal to make here, and it's possible to

1047
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:00,160
Speaker 1: do this, and you certainly look that's the old legislator

1048
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 1: in Joe Biden.

1049
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 2: I get it.

1050
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 1: But the childcare tax credit, that was that was, it

1051
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 1: mattered to people, it has bipartisan interest, like it just

1052
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 1: felt like I felt like a political It felt like

1053
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 1: a policy hill worth dying on because there's going to

1054
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 1: be something for this, right it. You know, right now

1055
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 1: it's baby bonds. I don't think this quite cuts it.

1056
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: Although I can imagine now people will say, hey, you

1057
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 1: can use that money for childcare.

1058
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 3: Well you can't use it so you can't use it for.

1059
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 2: A team yet, but you know it's coming.

1060
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 4: You can't.

1061
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe, But so on your childcare tax credit point,

1062
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 3: you know, we didn't have the votes on the Democratic

1063
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 3: Caucus mansion with against it. So and I think Cinema

1064
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 3: is too, so you know, we didn't have the votes.

1065
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 3: But I take you know, I take your point. It

1066
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 3: was real. I think that many of us were a

1067
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 3: little surprised by how little the public seemed to fight

1068
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 3: for it. You know, a lot of times when you

1069
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 3: get what I said a minute ago, when you provide

1070
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 3: people with a benefit like that, a lot of times

1071
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 3: taking it away is is.

1072
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 1: Been let me let me positive theory on that there. Sure,

1073
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 1: the Cholpcare tax credit came just when the government was

1074
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 1: shoveling out other money too. Yeah, so people, and I

1075
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: don't know if they fully appreciated what was it.

1076
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 3: Probably became viewed as like another pandemic era of things.

1077
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 2: So you're COVID thing.

1078
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, So look, I think giving one thousand dollars of

1079
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 3: seed money for what really is like an IRA account

1080
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 3: is a fine thing to do. I think the problem

1081
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 3: is that it's not at all targeted and that it

1082
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 3: will exacerbate intergenerational inequality. You're allowed to contribute, your family

1083
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 3: members are allowed to contribute five thousand dollars a year

1084
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 3: tax free to these to these funds. I think it's

1085
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 3: tax free. Obviously, the seed money you don't pay taxes

1086
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:56,400
Speaker 3: on until you take it out. You can't touch it

1087
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 3: for eighteen years, and so who's going to be able

1088
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 3: to make those contributions Not low income people, high income people.

1089
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 3: So it's going to exacerbate inequality over the long run.

1090
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 3: And I think that's problematic. I would have targeted in

1091
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 3: a different way, so that instead of giving money to

1092
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 3: savers who are going to save anyway, which you know,

1093
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 3: my kids are, your kids, probably are targeted to families

1094
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 3: that don't have the resources to make that saving and

1095
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 3: add to it over time so that it can build.

1096
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 4: Uh.

1097
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting to me. What the what the what

1098
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 1: the Dells did? They concentrated the donation by zip code.

1099
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that is a much more targeted approach, and

1100
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 3: you know, I think a better one. I don't know

1101
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 3: that we can kind of you know, philanthropy to get

1102
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:44,440
Speaker 3: us where we need to go on this.

1103
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 1: But well, and I'm curious of that. I find this

1104
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 1: to be really I'm gonna I can't. I'm really uncomfortable

1105
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:56,320
Speaker 1: with the idea of government spending becoming a charitable gift.

1106
00:59:57,360 --> 01:00:00,160
Speaker 1: And I don't know how else to put it. I'm

1107
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 1: not I don't really. I can't sit here and say, well, jeezus,

1108
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 1: it's bad what the Dells are doing, or it was bad?

1109
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 1: What Who was it was Ito who threw the money

1110
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:17,120
Speaker 1: to pay the pay the military or to help contribute. Yeah,

1111
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,880
Speaker 1: I think it was one of the Melons, one of

1112
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: the Melons did that, and you're like, well, I appreciate

1113
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:27,200
Speaker 1: your patriotism, right, Like, I think that's great, But is

1114
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 1: that a habit the government should get into that? Hey,

1115
01:00:29,760 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 1: well maybe they need a chair, they need a foundation

1116
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 1: to raise money for.

1117
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 3: So I mean, this is why we have a progressive

1118
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 3: income tax. So you can say, boy, cross my fingers.

1119
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:44,040
Speaker 3: I hope there's some really generous patriots out there who

1120
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 3: will provide us help where we need it, like fund

1121
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 3: the military. Or you can say we're going to progressively

1122
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 3: tax people. If this economy delivered you billions hundreds of

1123
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 3: billions trillions, we're gonna, you know, definitely take some of

1124
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 3: that back and we're going to use it for things

1125
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 3: that the electric decides are uh, you know, the electric

1126
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 3: decides through they're elected officials, is what we want to

1127
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 3: spend money on. And you know that's how democracy works.

1128
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 3: So I don't like the idea of leaving it to

1129
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 3: the kindness of strange of stranger trillionaires to make up

1130
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 3: the difference. I think that's why we have taxes.

1131
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 1: Is if you're understanding that Dell's are going to get it,

1132
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 1: is this tax free? Their charitable donation.

1133
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 3: Is charitable deduction. Yeah, so this is it's a deduction

1134
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:34,120
Speaker 3: that you deducted at your your time.

1135
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 1: Fact, so how much I mean, so that means you

1136
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:38,880
Speaker 1: and I are subsidizing this charitable giving already.

1137
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 3: Correct, that's a great point. I mean, uh, and you

1138
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 3: know I don't. Yeah, it's a lot of savings there

1139
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:50,000
Speaker 3: for them. And look, you know a lot of people

1140
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 3: have come after the charitable deduction as a way to

1141
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 3: raise more revenue, and it never really seems to get anywhere.

1142
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 3: You know, maybe for good reason. I mean, and it's

1143
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 3: a lot of but.

1144
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: I thought Obama lowered it. Then he lowered the rate

1145
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 1: from down to I thought he lowered how much. You

1146
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 1: definitely remember trying to do so, okay, and it never happened.

1147
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 1: I didn't think we got there, but I could be misrememory.

1148
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:15,440
Speaker 2: For some reason.

1149
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: I thought it went down from you know, twenty went

1150
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 1: to twenty you know, twenty eight set of three.

1151
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 2: Whenever we used to.

1152
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 3: Have revenue meetings, which we had all the time because

1153
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 3: we're desperately nure, somebody would say can we move that,

1154
01:02:27,400 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 3: and you know, the next meeting higher up would come

1155
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 3: the answer, no, we can't.

1156
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 2: No, you can't. That's funny, let me get you out

1157
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:33,440
Speaker 2: of here.

1158
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 1: On the Chobcare tax credit, what would it take to

1159
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: make it permanent? And how would you pay for it?

1160
01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 3: It's not it's not cheap. I think, yeah, I think

1161
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 3: if you're talking ten years, you're in the I think

1162
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:53,120
Speaker 3: in the seven eight hundred billion range. I I know

1163
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:55,040
Speaker 3: these numbers. When I'm working on that stuff.

1164
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna We're not gonna hold it you.

1165
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 3: I think that's the range. And when we obviously when

1166
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 3: we did it, it was deficit financed. And I don't

1167
01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 3: know if you've seen any of my work on this,

1168
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 3: but I am a pretty much a lifetime fiscal dove

1169
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:17,160
Speaker 3: who's lately become a bit hawkish.

1170
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 1: Do you feel like you're like, Okay, now you've everybody

1171
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 1: is at you know, I've my entire adult life has

1172
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, the sky's been falling when it comes to

1173
01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 1: the death. The guy's been falling. And it's people I trust,

1174
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 1: not just ideologues. Right, this guy's been falling. And somehow

1175
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 1: it turns out the Paul Kirkman's of the world and

1176
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: the you know those the fiscal doves like yourself, Well, no,

1177
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:41,560
Speaker 1: our debt to GDP ratio can be higher, and we

1178
01:03:41,600 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 1: can do this, and we can do that, but you

1179
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 1: think we might be at the breaking point.

1180
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 3: I think I don't think we're at the breaking point,

1181
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,600
Speaker 3: but I think we're at a level of BUN sustainability

1182
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 3: that is dangerously tempting a breaking point. And it's not

1183
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 3: even clear what a breaking point is. We have a

1184
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 3: sovereign currency that we print, so you know, it's not

1185
01:04:01,760 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 3: like we're going to have a list trust moment because

1186
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 3: our debt markets are so large and so liquid, and

1187
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,680
Speaker 3: we have the dominant global currency and all that, and

1188
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 3: the dollar. But the reason I flipped, and I've written

1189
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 3: extensively about this, including a New York Times bed that

1190
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 3: had a graphic in it that kind of explains this,

1191
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 3: is because interest rates are higher now. And I think

1192
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:26,560
Speaker 3: the thing that people missed although all those years where

1193
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 3: they had their hair on fire, is they just didn't

1194
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 3: recognize them. It's kind of right in front of you,

1195
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 3: how the real interest rate was so low, even negative

1196
01:04:33,440 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 3: in some cases, that we could HANDI le service our

1197
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 3: debt without breaking a sweat. But now the interest rate

1198
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 3: is higher, and my priors are that it's going to

1199
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 3: stay up. You don't know that's an impossible variable to forecast.

1200
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 3: But this is again a hope for the best plan

1201
01:04:47,080 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 3: for the worst moment. So I wouldn't support a full

1202
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:54,880
Speaker 3: out ten year expenditure six seven hundred billion for an

1203
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 3: extended child tax credit without a pay for. But those

1204
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 3: pay fors are readily available if you're willing to raise taxes,

1205
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 3: especially at the higher end. And in fact, in our

1206
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 3: budgets we did that. So you can actually go back

1207
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 3: and read how we financed a permanent extension of the

1208
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 3: childcare tax. And it may not have been quite as

1209
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:20,040
Speaker 3: generous as what we had in the in the pandemic recession,

1210
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,280
Speaker 3: but it was it was plenty generous.

1211
01:05:22,720 --> 01:05:27,280
Speaker 1: Is there any worry as an economist that that in

1212
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 1: some ways that in the same way that the insurance companies,

1213
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 1: because they know as government subsidy is coming, they kind

1214
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,240
Speaker 1: of frankly mess with the prices so they're able to,

1215
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 1: you know, make sure they get some profit and they

1216
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 1: know people are going to have a certain amount of money.

1217
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:44,120
Speaker 1: Do you worry that that happens to the to the

1218
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:54,120
Speaker 1: that basically child childcare becomes an industry if you will.

1219
01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 3: Not so much with childcare. I just think that the

1220
01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 3: this is all get slightly technical. For a second, childcare

1221
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 3: has it's a very high supply elasticity, meaning that if

1222
01:06:04,360 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 3: people want it and they have the resources to get it,

1223
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 3: you start seeing childcare centers pop up. So the responsiveness

1224
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:19,920
Speaker 3: of childcare production to demand is quite strong. And you know,

1225
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:24,040
Speaker 3: so that flexible elasticity there is helpful such that if

1226
01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:27,439
Speaker 3: we were able to provide people the subsidies they need,

1227
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:29,040
Speaker 3: and when we have in the past, we've seen this.

1228
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 3: I don't think you see, you know, particularly even medium

1229
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 3: term pressures on costs.

1230
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 1: Do you end up I'm going to get you out

1231
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 1: of here, but do you end up imagining that instead

1232
01:06:39,600 --> 01:06:42,000
Speaker 1: of a childcare tax credit, it becomes a what I

1233
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,439
Speaker 1: would call a home care tax credit, because maybe you're

1234
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:46,920
Speaker 1: taken care of an elderly parent.

1235
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:50,600
Speaker 3: Well, that's certainly something Biden was interested in. You know,

1236
01:06:50,640 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 3: I tend to like the idea of not even a

1237
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:57,080
Speaker 3: childcare tax credit, but a child tax credit. If you're

1238
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:00,439
Speaker 3: raising kids, your life is you've done this the peh

1239
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 3: if you're if you're raising kids, even if you've got

1240
01:07:03,120 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 3: a decent income, your life is a lot more expensive.

1241
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 3: Childcare can cost, you know, twenty five hundred dollars a

1242
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 3: month easily in an area like this.

1243
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 1: So you'd be in favor of a tax code that

1244
01:07:13,880 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 1: essentially played favorites with four parents with kids at home.

1245
01:07:18,240 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and some of those parents probably are in a

1246
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 3: Sandwich generation and if they want to use it for

1247
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 3: childcare or elder care, they could. But you know, I

1248
01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,800
Speaker 3: think a generous child tax credit that was targeted by

1249
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 3: the Way, which also helps keep the price down. I

1250
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 3: don't think we need to give it to you know,

1251
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 3: millionaires and billionaires.

1252
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:36,080
Speaker 1: Jared, I'm going to let you go. Where can people

1253
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 1: find your work? I know you've got a substack. Tell

1254
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:40,360
Speaker 1: them where you're also, I think you're involved in a

1255
01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:41,720
Speaker 1: couple of things, so pitch away.

1256
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 3: Yeah. So I write. I write basically in three different places.

1257
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:50,080
Speaker 3: Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, seeper You can see

1258
01:07:50,080 --> 01:07:53,280
Speaker 3: my work up there. In the Center for American Progress.

1259
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:56,480
Speaker 3: We've recently put a housing report on housing affordability. You

1260
01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 3: can find that up there. It's called Build, Baby Build.

1261
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,640
Speaker 3: But then almost you know, every couple days I write

1262
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:04,720
Speaker 3: something on my substack, which is called Jared substack, and

1263
01:08:04,760 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 3: it's easy to find. So that's where you can read

1264
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 3: my stuff.

1265
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:10,520
Speaker 2: Excellent It's great to catch up. I miss a.

1266
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 1: You know, we're it's uh, we joked to we used

1267
01:08:13,800 --> 01:08:17,400
Speaker 1: to occasionally be in the same pickup basketball game. But yeah, yeah,

1268
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 1: I think that's behind both of us. My friend, yeah,

1269
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:23,519
Speaker 1: father time. Father time has scared us away on that.

1270
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:27,200
Speaker 1: That and you know, fear of middle aged injuries at

1271
01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:29,680
Speaker 1: this point. Good to catch up, Jared, appreciate it.

1272
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 3: To take care.

1273
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,960
Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

1274
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:39,120
Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

1275
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,959
Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

1276
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

1277
01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:49,360
Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

1278
01:08:49,640 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

1279
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:55,519
Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

1280
01:08:55,640 --> 01:08:58,759
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

1281
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 1: which was a stat baggering forty times the amount that

1282
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,519
Speaker 1: the insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred

1283
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,679
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

1284
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, so with more than one thousand lawyers across

1285
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 1: the country. They know how to deliver for everyday people.

1286
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, You need somebody

1287
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:19,680
Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out forthpeople dot com, Slash podcast,

1288
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:25,400
Speaker 1: or dial pound law, pound five two nine law on

1289
01:09:25,439 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 1: your cell phone. And remember all law firms are not

1290
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 1: the same, so check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee

1291
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 1: is free unless they win.