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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media, and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Let's move on, because there is a sheer

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Speaker 3: level of stupidity that began with a doge but has

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Speaker 3: now morphed into full fledge insult of people's intelligence. I

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Speaker 3: think Signalgate was a major demarcation point where they were like,

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Speaker 3: we're going to lie to you, and we are going

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Speaker 3: to force MAGA to debase themselves to cover up somebody

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Speaker 3: who's clearly leaking, somebody who ideologically and opponents are already

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Speaker 3: good enough reason we shouldn't even be in the White

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Speaker 3: House in the first place. And then also turn it

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Speaker 3: into a thing where we're supposed to accept his explanation

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Speaker 3: that this number got sucked into his phone and we're

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Speaker 3: all just supposed to move past it, and that Elon's

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Speaker 3: technical experts were on top of it. Then we have

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Speaker 3: the formula where we take four and we multiply it

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Speaker 3: by one fourth.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: There are teachers of grade school math saying what the

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Speaker 3: fuck is going on here?

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Speaker 1: And we have a week of a tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Three of my kids, including the eight year old, could

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Speaker 2: do that.

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Speaker 1: No literally, by the way.

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Speaker 3: So then we have a week of tariffs, tariffs that

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Speaker 3: are not negotiating. We're manufacturer crashing the stock market. There's

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Speaker 3: no exclusions, and now.

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Speaker 1: Tariffs are off. It's our of the deal.

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Speaker 3: Except he says he did it because he got spooked.

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Speaker 3: It's the same thing. And this is a transition to

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Speaker 3: the cope thing where they demand that you debase yourself

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Speaker 3: to the point where there's always logic. It's not stupidity

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Speaker 3: that you must accept their word that you yourself can

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Speaker 3: never put yourself in the mind space of Donald J.

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Speaker 1: Trump.

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Speaker 3: And I mean, look, I think they're losing a lot

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Speaker 3: of people, first of all, and second, it's just for

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Speaker 3: anyone out there, like, please, I'm pleading with you to

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Speaker 3: like think for yourself.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why it's so difficult.

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Speaker 3: You'd be amazed if you look at comments and all

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Speaker 3: these other people are anybody who is willing to call

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Speaker 3: this out for what it is. They're just like, oh,

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Speaker 3: you know you this was part of the strategy all along.

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Speaker 3: It's like he said, it's because he got afraid. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and they're like, yeah, but it's not mutually exclusive.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: Trump yesterday said that he makes decisions based on he said,

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Speaker 3: flexibility and his gut. And it reminded me that we've

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Speaker 3: moved so far as a country that it used to

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Speaker 3: be a joke.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember in two.

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Speaker 3: Thousand and two when Bush said I make decisions from

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Speaker 3: my gut. He was ridiculed by the American people.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 3: I actually tweeted that yesterday. I tweeted the Bush quote.

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Speaker 3: Nobody even got the reference. This was once this was

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Speaker 3: a scandal that this guy's decisions from a gut about

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Speaker 3: who we're gonna bomb. So that's the level of where

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Speaker 3: we're at now, Yeah, that's the level.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, indeed, it is literally so just think about this.

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Speaker 2: How many people were out two days ago saying that

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Speaker 2: the specific terraf regime that Trump had imposed, including the

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Speaker 2: absurd four times point two five formula that has no

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Speaker 2: basis than anything, that this was genius, that this was

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Speaker 2: going to lead to a golden age of America, that

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Speaker 2: we were going to have this manufacturing revival, that Trump

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Speaker 2: was so strong because he was doing this in the face.

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Speaker 4: Of market turmoil. He wasn't going to be a Panican.

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Speaker 4: They were arguing in.

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Speaker 2: Favor of a very specific terror regime and saying that

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Speaker 2: it was brilliant and great and wonderful and going to

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Speaker 2: do all sorts of great things for the country. And

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Speaker 2: then on a dime, when he backs off of it,

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Speaker 2: they go from what is money anyway, and who cares

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Speaker 2: about the stock market? To like, oh my god, the

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Speaker 2: greatest stock market gains in history.

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Speaker 4: Art of the Deal. It literally is.

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Speaker 2: That meme come to life where he puts the tariffs

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Speaker 2: on and they say this will create jobs. And then

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Speaker 2: he takes it off and they say art of the deal,

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Speaker 2: and then he puts them on and they say this.

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Speaker 1: Will create jobs.

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Speaker 2: Literally that so our producers put together a little mashup

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Speaker 2: of some of the things that Republicans have been saying,

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Speaker 2: starting with Caroline Levitt, who actually does the meme herself,

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Speaker 2: where they were all insisting this isn't a negotiating tool.

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Speaker 2: This is what's happening. These are in place, it's bold,

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Speaker 2: it's brilliant, etc. Right up to the moment that Trump

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Speaker 2: decides to change, and then he's a masterful economic genius.

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Speaker 4: Art of the deal. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 5: The President was asked to answer this yesterday. He said

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Speaker 5: he's not considering an extension or delay. I spoke to

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Speaker 5: him before this briefing. That was not his mind's He

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Speaker 5: expects that these tariffs are going to go into effect

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Speaker 5: and there will be a ninety day pause on the

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Speaker 5: reciprocal tariffs as these negotiations are ongoing, and the tariff

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Speaker 5: level will be brought down to a universal ten percent tariff.

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Speaker 5: Many of you in the media clearly missed the art

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Speaker 5: of the deal. You clearly failed to see what President

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Speaker 5: Trump is doing here.

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Speaker 6: Would you be open to a pause in tariffs to

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Speaker 6: allow for negotiation, Well, we'll look into that.

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Speaker 1: Will you do a ninety day pause in which you consider.

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Speaker 7: That or built?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I think that the President is going

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Speaker 8: to decide what the President's going to decide.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing, this is not a negotiation.

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Speaker 4: There is no postponing.

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Speaker 6: They are definitely going to stay in place for days

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Speaker 6: and weeks.

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Speaker 1: That is sort of obvious.

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Speaker 9: What I find so frustrating about the conversation around tariffs

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Speaker 9: is that we all agree on the problem. We all

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Speaker 9: agree that the de industrialization of America led to the

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Speaker 9: downward mobility of the American working class, deaths of despair,

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Speaker 9: people working multiple jobs and not being able to afford

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Speaker 9: the American dream. We all agree that it is deeply

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Speaker 9: unfair for the American middle class to be bearing the

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Speaker 9: burden of unfair tariffs from other countries. We all agree

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Speaker 9: that it is great for the.

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Speaker 6: President to have leverage in order to demand reasonable things

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Speaker 6: like that country stop allowing fentanyl to murder one hundred

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Speaker 6: thousand Americans every year, and that Mexico do its part

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Speaker 6: to police its own border. And yet when somebody has

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Speaker 6: the courage to show up and stay at Wall Street,

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Speaker 6: screw you.

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Speaker 9: I am waging war.

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Speaker 6: I'm waging class warfare on behalf of the American working class.

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Speaker 6: And you elites and Wall Street, you do what you

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Speaker 6: need to do because I'm not going to stop fighting

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Speaker 6: for the American working class.

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Speaker 2: So did the did the elites on Wall Street win?

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Speaker 2: Now that he's back to the way it's Scott Besson

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Speaker 2: said something, so where I can put this up on

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Speaker 2: the screen D two. This quote from him had gone

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Speaker 2: sort of virally. Says, for the last four decades, Wall

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Speaker 2: Street has grown wealthier than ever before. But for the

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Speaker 2: next four years, it's Main Street's turn. I guess it

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Speaker 2: is once again Wall Street's turn.

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Speaker 1: Soccer, Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 3: One of my friends trung Fawn on Twitter, he was like,

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Speaker 3: it was Wall Street's turn April twenty twenty five to

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Speaker 3: April twenty five. Listen, it just demands too much stupidity.

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Speaker 3: If you have an ounce of self respect, you have

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Speaker 3: to understand this for what it is.

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Speaker 1: Put the Trump truth up there on the screen. D three.

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Speaker 3: The United States has a chance to do something that

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Speaker 3: should have been done decades ago.

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Speaker 1: Don't be weak, don't be.

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Speaker 3: Stupid, don't be a panic in a new party based

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Speaker 3: on weak and stupid people. And then he can't come

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Speaker 3: out two days later and he says, I'm doing this

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Speaker 3: because people are afraid, and you know there's other flashing

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Speaker 3: signs that anybody with a fucking brain knows is dumb.

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Speaker 1: JD. He hasn't tweeted in like.

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Speaker 3: Five or six days, all right, he re emerged to

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Speaker 3: tweet about.

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Speaker 1: I mean he's been like retweeting. Yeah, yeah, you know.

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Speaker 1: Usually when they go hard in the paint.

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Speaker 3: It's on something that they know is politically palatable and

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Speaker 3: or good for them.

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Speaker 1: Silence, all right.

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Speaker 3: Same with the many of the I mean even the best,

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Speaker 3: with like MAGA influencers and all these other folks. He

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Speaker 3: looks so stupid. They spent an entire week justifying this.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I can tell you this, you know, for me,

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Speaker 3: as people know, I'm pro tariff, even a ten percent tariff.

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Speaker 3: I'll give you an argument for it later if we

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Speaker 3: want to talk about it in terms of if we

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Speaker 3: want to talk about how it actually prevents transhipment, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: But at a certain point it feels foolish to dignify

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Speaker 3: it with the justification and response whenever it is so

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Speaker 3: ad hoc and unrooted in any seriousness that we just

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Speaker 3: have to sit here and be like, what are we doing?

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Speaker 3: What are we all doing here? You know, we're just

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Speaker 3: and you know, lost in the hilarity because it is funny.

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Speaker 3: At some level, is people's lives, people's businesses. You know,

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Speaker 3: maybe we'll ask Ryan about this, but he elevated a

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Speaker 3: post yesterday, and this is an actual business who has

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Speaker 3: a question here. Our customers pre ordered our product for

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Speaker 3: as low as fifty nine dollars.

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Speaker 1: We have a product that is ready to ship.

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Speaker 3: The tariffs will now cost US one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 3: nine dollars per unit. Should we Number one wait until

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Speaker 3: it gets better? Number two ship now and eat the

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Speaker 3: tariff costs. Three cancel the order and eat the manufacturing costs.

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Speaker 1: What does he do? What? What would you do? I

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Speaker 1: don't know what I would do. Maybe I would wait.

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Speaker 1: Hope I can.

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Speaker 3: Hope I'm in a financial position where I can wait

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Speaker 3: ninety days to make sure I don't have to book

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Speaker 3: any revenue. Hope I'm in Or maybe I'm in a

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Speaker 3: financial position where I have to eat back of the napkin.

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Speaker 3: Math one hundred and twenty dollars costs on a product

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Speaker 3: where maybe my margin was ten percent, you know, to

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Speaker 3: start off with or three, cancel the order and then.

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Speaker 1: Eat the cost of having produced the damn thing in

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Speaker 1: the first place.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 3: Take that and multiply it by I don't know, twelve

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Speaker 3: percent of all US trade. The US economy's worth roughly

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Speaker 3: fifteen trillion, So okay, I mean you can do math.

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Speaker 3: That's over trillion dollars.

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Speaker 1: It's been infected.

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Speaker 4: And here's the thing.

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Speaker 2: If you're Jeff Bezos, you could get an audience with

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Speaker 2: the president.

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Speaker 4: You can make your case.

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Speaker 1: Actually, I will let me return to that, because there's

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Speaker 1: a story I want to.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, if you're you know, if you're Jeff Bezos,

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Speaker 2: if you're the Walmart CEO, whoever that is. Now, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you're one of the big guys, you can get

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Speaker 2: on the phone with him.

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Speaker 4: You can make your little trek tomorrow lago.

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Speaker 2: You can plunk down he's you know, you can get

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Speaker 2: a private audience for him for five million dollars. The

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Speaker 2: price is right there, very easy to make that transaction.

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Speaker 2: If you are any number of small to medium businesses

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Speaker 2: across the country, you don't have that opportunity. And Trump

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Speaker 2: himself has said I'm going to be open to giving

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Speaker 2: some companies carve outs, which goes back to like part

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Speaker 2: of maybe the whole part of what he really likes

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Speaker 2: about this is he loves being in that position. He

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Speaker 2: loves the CEOs calling him, flattering him and buttering him

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Speaker 2: up and begging on bend Adney for their little carve

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Speaker 2: out for the thing that they need for their business

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Speaker 2: to survive.

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Speaker 4: He loves the heads of state.

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Speaker 2: Coming to call and paying homage to him, and you know,

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Speaker 2: having to having to grovel for some little exception or whatever.

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Speaker 2: And so you know, if you're one of the big guys,

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Speaker 2: you may be able to successfully do that, but if

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Speaker 2: you are the vast majority of businesses, that option is

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Speaker 2: not going to be available to you. So you're just

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Speaker 2: going to have to deal with whatever the hell his

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Speaker 2: gut decides that day is going to be the global

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Speaker 2: economic regime.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so stories, this is the problem with all this

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Speaker 3: news is that I'm not actually we're not able to

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Speaker 3: really dig into anything. So literally, this just happened buried

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Speaker 3: in all the tariff news. If you'll remember all that

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Speaker 3: talk about Nvidia H one hundred chips was highly advanced chips. Well,

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Speaker 3: it turns out, and this was publishing a trade publication

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Speaker 3: that the Trump administration is likely to drop the export

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Speaker 3: control on Nvidia's most highly advanced chips.

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Speaker 1: To China.

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Speaker 3: Now, how exactly did that come up? That's a massive reversal.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, and semiconductor and chip policy. It turns out

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Speaker 3: that Jensen Wang, the CEO of Nvidia, bought the one

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Speaker 3: of those five million dollar things where he was wanted

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Speaker 3: to go and have dinner with Trump, And in his

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Speaker 3: dinner with Trump, it was like, listen, there's no reason

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Speaker 3: to do this.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: Five million is nothing compared to the market cap of Nvidia,

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Speaker 3: one of the most valuable companies in the entire world,

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Speaker 3: and he probably just saved himself literally hundreds of billions

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Speaker 3: of dollars on their bottom line over the next decade.

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Speaker 3: But look, agree or disagree on the China on the

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Speaker 3: chip thing. I happen to think there's no reason at

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Speaker 3: all that we should be exporting them. Maybe you're in support.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that's the process which we should go

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Speaker 3: about exactly. It's it's ridiculous. And that is the ultimate

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Speaker 3: issue with all of this, you know, and even even

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Speaker 3: his treasury and his Commerce secretary, they had some lines

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Speaker 3: which theoretically I would even be in agreement with. They're like,

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Speaker 3: no exceptions and no exclusions.

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Speaker 1: Why is that good?

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Speaker 3: No lobbying that means that no, you know, special cases,

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Speaker 3: winners and losers at least theoretically will.

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Speaker 1: Apply to everybody.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 3: But now Trump actually just yesterday said that maybe we

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Speaker 3: will have exclusions because why because of stuff like this?

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Speaker 1: And you know, I mean just again, at a.

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Speaker 3: Basic level, this Art of the Deal and all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden sense, it's like, I just don't know what

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Speaker 3: he needs to do to push some of these folks

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Speaker 3: into reality. I there's the mindlessness and the team instinct

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Speaker 3: on all of this. It's like, what what does he

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Speaker 3: need to do, like literally make you poor? Even at

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Speaker 3: that point, I'm not so sure. I honestly I'm not sure.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it would do anything.

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Speaker 2: Favrou Actually at a to read, he said, art of

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Speaker 2: the Deal. Number one, impose massive tariffs on nearly every

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Speaker 2: country that crash the markets, create the conditions for global

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Speaker 2: economic collapse. Number two, make zero deals with zero countries.

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Speaker 2: Number three pause tariff's Number four to clare victory.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: Also not to me mean how many people who are

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Speaker 3: posting art of the Deal have negotiated like their W

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Speaker 3: two income by like five percent.

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Speaker 1: It's like, what do you know about art of the deals? Oh?

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Speaker 1: You got your realtor to put in a counteroffer. It's like,

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Speaker 1: what the fuck do you know about negotiation?

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Speaker 3: No again, listen, I mean, or you want to take

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Speaker 3: it from a business owner who somebody who actually respect

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Speaker 3: We've negotiated deals with some of the biggest companies in

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Speaker 3: the world. Okay, maybe you should listen to me by

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Speaker 3: that logic, but just.

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Speaker 2: The bottom Let look, I could respect someone more. I

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Speaker 2: actually I don't know if you have. I haven't seen

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Speaker 2: a single person who was previously like, these tariffs are amazing.

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Speaker 2: This is brilliant, delivering for the working classes, telling Wall's

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Speaker 2: dream of the defending the tariff regime as it was,

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Speaker 2: and saying this is glorious for our future. I have

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Speaker 2: not seen one of those people be disappointed that those

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Speaker 2: tariffs are no longer.

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Speaker 1: Please point not one.

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Speaker 4: So I could actually respect.

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Speaker 2: Sort of someone who at least had a consistent position

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Speaker 2: of like, ah, man, I really wish they would have

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Speaker 2: kept those fifty percent tariffs on the SOTHO that would

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Speaker 2: have That was great when that was in place, and

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Speaker 2: I'm sad to see that go. I don't see a

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Speaker 2: sing not one. I have not seen one person say that. Instead,

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Speaker 2: what I see is art of the deal. Like I

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Speaker 2: was two days ago. I was in favor of the

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Speaker 2: crazy formula and the penguins getting tariffs, and I.

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Speaker 4: Was justifying it all. And who even needs the iPad?

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Speaker 4: You just want that? What is money? Like we all

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Speaker 4: need to pair back.

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Speaker 2: And then the stock market jumps and he makes this

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Speaker 2: announcement and oh he's so brilliant, he's a genius, this

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Speaker 2: is amazing, etc. Like you should just not You just

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Speaker 2: can't take these people seriously. Just don't take them seriously

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Speaker 2: because they will debase themselves every single time. And if

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Speaker 2: he does something different next week, they'll justify that. And

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter what it is, does not matter the.

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Speaker 4: Details of it.

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Speaker 2: They will work backwards from whatever it is that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is doing to their conclusions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's absolutely correct. Let's go ahead and get to

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Speaker 3: Ryan Peterson. He is the CEO of Flexport. He's the

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Speaker 3: one who really broke the news about that one point

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Speaker 3: five million dollar port call stuff that's about to go

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Speaker 3: into play. He is also such an excellent guest for

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Speaker 3: years now, who is somebody who has broke down all

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Speaker 3: of the supply chain problems with the ports? Remember when

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Speaker 3: what was the Suez Canal was all blocked up like

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Speaker 3: he is a go to source, an odd guest.

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Speaker 1: He's an odd lots guest.

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Speaker 3: And the thing is about Ryan is he has such

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Speaker 3: intricate data because he helps all of these global shipping

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Speaker 3: customers that he actually can tell you about the real

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Speaker 3: time impact that he is seeing. We are going to

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Speaker 3: get into the shipbuilding problems and stuff that we've seen,

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Speaker 3: and how somebody who actually has to grapple with this stuff,

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Speaker 3: like for real, moving trillions of dollars of goods all

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Speaker 3: across the world, what this means for them. So let's

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Speaker 3: go ahead and get to him. Joining us now is

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Speaker 3: Ryan Peterson. He's the CEO of Flexport, as I said,

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Speaker 3: an absolute go to resource of mind for anything concerning

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Speaker 3: global shipping. He really set DC ablaze after he realized

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Speaker 3: and noticed what it's not some sort of terraff regime

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Speaker 3: that is coming in for fine or for customs duties

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Speaker 3: at ports. Let's go and put this up there on

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Speaker 3: the screen because I want him to break it down

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Speaker 3: for all of us, he says. On April seventeenth, the

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Speaker 3: US Trade Representative's Office is expected to impose fees of

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Speaker 3: up to one point five million per port call for

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Speaker 3: ships made in China and for five hundred thousand to

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Speaker 3: one million dollars if the ocean carrier owns a single

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Speaker 3: ship made in China or even has one on order

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Speaker 3: from a Chinese shipyard. So Ryan, can you break down

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Speaker 3: just how extraordinary of an imposition that would be and

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Speaker 3: what some of the numbers behind these global shipping companies

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Speaker 3: are with respect to Chinese made ships.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, and to be close, it's a fee on the

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Speaker 8: owner of the ship or the operator of the ship rather,

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Speaker 8: but obviously they got to pass it through to the

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Speaker 8: people shipping cargo on that boat.

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Speaker 7: And yeah, well, first off, there's not a single.

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Speaker 8: Ocean carrier that comes to the United States that I

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Speaker 8: can find that doesn't meet these qualifications that doesn't have

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Speaker 8: at least one ship made in China or one on

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Speaker 8: order from a Chinese shipyard. Chinese shipyards have been dominating

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Speaker 8: recent years. I think they're producing between sixty and seventy

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Speaker 8: percent of the world's container ships and that number keeps growing.

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Speaker 8: They've been and there's almost none made. There were none

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Speaker 8: made in America last year, no container ships. It's Korea

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Speaker 8: and Japan that they're taking market share originally was Japan.

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Speaker 7: Korea.

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Speaker 8: Hyundai built big shipyards back in the nineteen seventies and

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Speaker 8: has been taking first took market share from them, and

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Speaker 8: now it's China leap frogging Korea as a big deal.

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Speaker 8: First off, the obvious trick to avoid paying because it

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Speaker 8: is per port call. And what the obvious trick here

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Speaker 8: is for the ocean carriers to just make fewer port calls.

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Speaker 8: And so instead of stopping it Seattle than Oakland, then La,

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Speaker 8: you just skip the small ports and go straight to

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Speaker 8: LA because you'll save three million bucks by doing so.

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Speaker 7: And so that's a really bad deal.

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Speaker 8: I mean, Oakland's a major export hub for all the

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Speaker 8: agricultural products coming out of the Central Valley Seattle. I

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Speaker 8: mean these are just major hubs, and there's a lot

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Speaker 8: of exports going out, and so if the ships aren't

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Speaker 8: stomping there, it means you got to run trucks or

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Speaker 8: trains all the way to southern California hugely inefficient, costly,

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Speaker 8: and it's hurting American exporters, which is sort of like

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Speaker 8: the exact opposite of the stated goals of administration.

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Speaker 2: That's right, how likely is this to go into effect?

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Speaker 2: And then also to the extent that you can say.

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Speaker 2: And then also even for these larger ports like we

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Speaker 2: all saw in COVID, there was a huge backup and

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Speaker 2: this was part of what crippled the supply chain, and

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Speaker 2: that's part of what fueled inflation that became, you know,

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Speaker 2: the number one political issue and in many ways is

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Speaker 2: responsible for for Trump ultimately getting re elected. So help

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Speaker 2: us understand some of these pieces of how this will

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Speaker 2: actually all work in practice.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's hard to say how likely it is.

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Speaker 8: I think in the in the form that was proposed

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Speaker 8: a month ago, they've already started. You know, I did

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Speaker 8: that sweetstorm, and then the next day I heard I

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Speaker 8: got a couple of texts like, hey, people are talking

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Speaker 8: about this in Washington.

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Speaker 7: And then the next day.

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Speaker 8: The Wall Street turnal reported that they're considering revising it.

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Speaker 8: I'm not taking credit for that, but it's possible that

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Speaker 8: they are. They've been pretty reasonable about taking feedback from

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Speaker 8: the from I mean, they took feedback from the market

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Speaker 8: yesterday and uh kind of put paused on the Southeast

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Speaker 8: Asia and other pariffs.

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Speaker 7: So it's possible to build be talking about Ryan.

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Speaker 2: And that was just art of the deal. That was

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Speaker 2: the plan the whole time. I don't know it's now

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Speaker 2: market anyway.

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Speaker 8: The heart of the deal, it is like do something

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Speaker 8: crazy and wait, everybody think there's no you know, no hope,

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Speaker 8: and then switcher through at the end. So and the

445
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 8: April seventeenth date, I don't think it's set in stone.

446
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 8: It's very possible that there's flexibility and that you know,

447
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,439
Speaker 8: I just said, we can't really say what will happen.

448
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,360
Speaker 8: The biggest clause in fact in this you mentioned, yeah,

449
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 8: there is a there is a what will happen in

450
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 8: LA would.

451
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 7: Be congestion like we saw in COVID.

452
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 8: I mean, if all the ships go there at LA

453
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 8: or at Long Beach Port just can't keep up. They

454
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 8: barely kept up with a twenty percent increase, which is

455
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 8: what you saw during COVID. But if you know, all

456
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 8: the ships only went there, it would be a massive surge.

457
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 8: So but actually there's another clause in here, and this

458
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 8: one I think is almost certain to go away because

459
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 8: it's just too bad for American exporters. The other closet

460
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 8: that within seven years, fifteen percent of exports from the

461
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 8: United States must travel on American made ship crewed by

462
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 8: American citizens and there's only twenty three of those container

463
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 8: ships in the world.

464
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 7: Today, and none of them go where our exports are going.

465
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 8: These are ships that are serving the domestic ocean freight market,

466
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 8: meaning traveling to Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto.

467
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 7: Rico as well as you know.

468
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 8: This is called the Jones Act, so you have to

469
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 8: in order to travel domestically, you have to be made

470
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 8: in America. So it's kind of a Jones Act on steroids.

471
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 8: And the Jones Act is I think you can very

472
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 8: clearly say Jones Acts of failure.

473
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 7: It was.

474
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 8: It was designed to promote American shipbuilding, and we didn't

475
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 8: make any container ships last year, so like we've got

476
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 8: to try something else.

477
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 3: That's why I really want to stick to that point

478
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 3: because this is very important.

479
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: Let's put this one up on the screen, guys.

480
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 3: The next one, which really underscores Ryan's point about the

481
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 3: number of ships that were actually built in the United

482
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: States compared to China. What's the statistic is that China

483
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 3: produced more ships in twenty twenty four than all of

484
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 3: the United States since post World War two era. Just

485
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 3: to give people an idea, as you said, we have

486
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: not We did not build a single ship in twenty

487
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: twenty four. The Jones Act thing that you just brought

488
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: up reminds me of the tariff discussion, where we have

489
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 3: in a regulatory regime which is designed to quote unquote

490
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 3: promote shipbuilding by creating a ring around the industry, but

491
00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 3: simultaneously we give no money to the shipbuilding industry, incentives

492
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 3: supply chain all of the industrial production that the Chinese offer.

493
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 3: And so what happens you both have a regulatory thing

494
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 3: that increases costs while also not building anymore ship So

495
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 3: you have the worst of both of those things. So

496
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 3: I'm curious for your reflection based upon that, that policy

497
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 3: that they're putting into place, and also the lack of

498
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 3: investment right now coming from the White House on any

499
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 3: of this.

500
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 7: Yeah.

501
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 8: Actually, well we should know. There was an executive work

502
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 8: right last night, and it does.

503
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 7: It does.

504
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 8: It's not clear enough about like what benefits there will be,

505
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 8: but a very clearly states hey, we're gonna we're gonna

506
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 8: The biggest probably barrier to ship building the United States,

507
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 8: by the way, is things like the California Coastal Commission.

508
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 8: I mean, good luck trying to make a shipyard on

509
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 8: the West coast of the United states.

510
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 7: These guys won't let you.

511
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 8: You know, you can't have a beach hut, like you're

512
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 8: not building a ship yard, and so there's it's regulatory.

513
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 8: Can you get red tape out of the way. Can

514
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 8: you actually allow these things to get built? The model

515
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 8: here the real thing that really danger here, And actually

516
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 8: I would look at it the same way we're looking

517
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 8: I look at these tariffs is if you're just putting

518
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 8: up protective barriers and protecting US industry and sort of

519
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 8: coddling our industry. Yes, you might actually make some companies

520
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 8: out of that, but what would they be good companies?

521
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 5: Like?

522
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 7: Would they are?

523
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: You?

524
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 8: Just because if you just make crappy products and the

525
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 8: only reason those can survive is because there's no competition

526
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 8: from abroad. All you've done is like hurt the American

527
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 8: people on a net basis. What the lesson to learn

528
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 8: here is from East Asia where they went and industrialized,

529
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 8: and the key requirement of the successful countries that industrialized

530
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 8: was that you must export. Your products must be good

531
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 8: enough that people in other countries want. So you don't

532
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 8: just give them money, but you give them benefits when

533
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 8: they export. You give them encouragement to go and export.

534
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 8: And you require it in order to hit subsidies, you

535
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 8: must be able to win export markets, and so you

536
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 8: actually see advantage Like India tried to make their car

537
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 8: companies in India that only serve domestic and were protected

538
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 8: from foreign automakers, and their cars didn't improve from.

539
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 7: Like the nineteen fifty to the nineteen nineties.

540
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 6: Malaysia as well, Yeah.

541
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 8: Whereas Japan and Korea actually focused on export markets and

542
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 8: made great cars and great companies and kind of took

543
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 8: over the world. So if we're going to rein industrialize,

544
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 8: it really has to be export oriented. And that's what's

545
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 8: so dumb about this policy is like you're going to

546
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 8: cap American exporters and decap them and say, hey, you

547
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 8: gotta you have to travel on American made ships. Oops,

548
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 8: there are none like good luck exporters.

549
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 7: You know, it's like it's really bad policy.

550
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 2: Give us some sense of what you're seeing, you know,

551
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: from your vantage point economically and how you think you

552
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 2: there's sort of like a reaction like Trump's rolled back

553
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: all the teriffs.

554
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 4: Of course he hasn't.

555
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: There's still massive teriffs on China, well over one hundred

556
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: percent ten percent tariffs almost across the board around the world.

557
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: So you know, what are you seeing in terms of

558
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 2: what the fallout from that could be? When indicate early

559
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 2: indications do you have?

560
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 7: Yeah?

561
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 8: So when it was the big reciprocal tariffs on everybody,

562
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 8: I mean that was sort of nuclear winter for the

563
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 8: international trade community. People were really it was really scary

564
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 8: couple of days. We uh for our customers. You know,

565
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 8: flex sports designed to ride out anything. We have a

566
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 8: really strong balance sheet and we believe deeply that like

567
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 8: the technology we're building and over the long run here

568
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 8: is just going to be like people will want it,

569
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 8: regardless of how much trade there is.

570
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 7: But we're very word for our customers.

571
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 8: In fact, we saw that twenty eight percent of all

572
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 8: the ocean of all of our customers that we surveyed,

573
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 8: said that they would cancel all ocean freight bookings entering

574
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 8: the United States as soon as went into effect. Wow,

575
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 8: that we didn't actually see that yet, but that's what

576
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 8: they told us they were planning to do. Now, obviously,

577
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 8: the ones that aren't China have now said okay, the

578
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 8: ten percent week is business as usual basically, and then

579
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 8: China re entered. Ones just got hit with a much

580
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 8: bigger tariff and I think a lot of folks are

581
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 8: going to be in a world of pain. This is

582
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 8: this is really ugly if you're if you're and it's

583
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 8: just a huge number of companies, I think you're gonna

584
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 8: have mass bankruptcies of companies in the United States if

585
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 8: this goes through.

586
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 7: And I don't I.

587
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 8: Personally predict there will be another deal to get done

588
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 8: with China. I don't think Trump wants that to be

589
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 8: his legacy. Is just like central planning of the economy

590
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 8: that puts tons of companies out of you know, overnight

591
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 8: out of business and creates unemployment in our country.

592
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 3: Ryan, So there's a ninety day pause, et cetera. Ten

593
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: percent tariff, but as you just alluded to one hundred

594
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 3: and twenty five percent or maybe one hundred and fifty percent,

595
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: no one is actually clear on that.

596
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 1: What the tariff rate there is.

597
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 3: I believe it's about twelve percent of US What is

598
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 3: it twelve percent of trade there? Stands with in terms

599
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 3: of goods with China? Since you have some insight into this,

600
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 3: what are the categories of goods that are coming over

601
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: on these ships? Like is it everything furniture? You know,

602
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 3: what type of inputs and others. Can we expect to

603
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 3: see immediate price hikes, consumer hikes and bankruptcies?

604
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: What industry should we be looking at.

605
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 8: Certainly the stuff that's been the hardest to move out

606
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 8: of China has been consumer electronics. There's just this whole

607
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 8: ecosystem of subcomponent manufacturers that you just can't lift and

608
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 8: shift it. So, I mean apparel, things that are were

609
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 8: the main input is just cheap labor that largely left

610
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 8: China over the last fifteen years are ready because China

611
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 8: is no longer the low cost labor provider for the world.

612
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 8: It's actually the high skilled manufacturing center, and so it's higher.

613
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 8: It's things that are more intricate that are that then

614
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 8: that require lots of subcomponents. So yeah, consumer electronics is

615
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 8: the big one. Your iPhone's made in China, you know.

616
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 8: So they've got some production and they're shifting more, but

617
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 8: it's most of that those things are made in China, computers,

618
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 8: TVs and and a broad range of stuff, you know.

619
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 8: But there is some furniture from there. A lot of

620
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 8: furniture has already moved to Indonesia and Vietnam, but we

621
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 8: have some the Terrafona sofa from China is going to

622
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 8: be one hundred and fifty nine percent if I'm doing

623
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 8: the math right in my head, or one hundred and

624
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 8: fifty four percent. Excuse me, Yeah, it's it's ugly out there.

625
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: Wow.

626
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 4: Well, thank you so much. Ryan.

627
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: It's really just so useful to get your perspective since

628
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 2: you deal with like the nuts and bolts of how

629
00:27:59,000 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: this will actually work.

630
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 4: So thank you for taking the time. I know you're

631
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 4: extremely busy guy.

632
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: That's right, Thank you, Ryan. We appreciate you. Everybody, go

633
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 3: follow them on Twitter. The best insights out of anybody

634
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 3: out there. Somebody actually does the work.

635
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: Thanks dude, Thank you our pleasure.

636
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 2: So we have a few major updates for you with

637
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: regard to the Trump administration's immigration policy. And let's start

638
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: specifically with the big anti Semitism crack down, the whole

639
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: of government, whole of society, anti semitism crackdown, and can

640
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: put this up on the screen. So the US Citizenship

641
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 2: and Immigration Services they're announcing that they will begin considering

642
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 2: alien's quote anti Semitic activity on social media and physical

643
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: harassment of Jews as grounds to deny immigration benefit requests,

644
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: including applications for lawful permanent residence status and foreign student

645
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 2: visas per USCIS. Under this guidance, we will consider social

646
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: media content that indicates an alien endorsing, espousing, promoting, or

647
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: supporting anti Semitic terrorism, anti Semitic organizations, or other antisemitic

648
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: activity as a negative factor in any discretionary analysis when

649
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 2: adjusting immigration benefit requests. This guidance is effective immediately. So,

650
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,959
Speaker 2: first of all, as you guys likely know, when they

651
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: say anti semitism, sure they mean actual antise, but they

652
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: also just really mean any criticism of Israel.

653
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 4: And this is.

654
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 2: Abundantly clear if you look at the students that they've

655
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 2: gone after, not for any sort of criminal activity, but

656
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: literally for things like writing an op ed, sharing things

657
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 2: on social media, or being married, being married to the

658
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: wrong person, thank you, or in some instances there's no

659
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: indication that they were even involved with the protest whatsoever.

660
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 4: So it truly is now.

661
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: And here's the thing again, Sager kind of goes back

662
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: to our Cokee bloc. Like all of the people who

663
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: were concerned about social media censorship and cancel culture and

664
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 2: weaponization of government against certain viewpoints, etc.

665
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 4: There are few who have been consistent.

666
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: The vast majority have nothing to say about every part

667
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 2: of the state being used to ban criticism of a

668
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: specific foreign country, including denying you know, foreign student visas,

669
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: including denying Okay, you're here, you want to marry an

670
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 2: American citizen, you are applying for a green card, all

671
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: of those sorts of things.

672
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 4: If you have said the wrong thing with.

673
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 2: Regard to Israel Palestine, it is really outrageous. And of

674
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: course does not just stop with immigrants or permanent residents,

675
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: mass crackdown across the board on anything that would be

676
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: critical of Israel.

677
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 3: Well with the anti Semitism and activity, what does it mean?

678
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, these terms are supposed to have meaning. Well,

679
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 3: if we're going off of what the holocau ihr A definition,

680
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 3: then we are literally talking about criticism of a foreign government.

681
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 3: And I mean that's part of what is just so sickening.

682
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 3: We're talking about subjecting this standard to any potential resident

683
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: or imigrant to the United States of America based upon

684
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: their views of a foreign government. And what's even crazier,

685
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 3: and I don't see a lot of the right wingers

686
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: doing this, is is there like, hey, so it's just

687
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: it's not any other religion. So you could be anti

688
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: Christian or anti Muslim or anti Hindu or anti what else?

689
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 1: Am I missing seek sickism for any of these?

690
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 3: And that would be fine, But this is actually that's

691
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 3: the problem with these types of exclusions. It also is

692
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: just genuinely like unskilled based and ideological, which is just

693
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 3: as bad as any sort of This is literally just

694
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 3: as bad as like a racial quota. We need racial

695
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: quotas of x amount of black people to come. Can

696
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 3: you imagine what people would do. It wouldn't even matter

697
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: who they are, It's just based on the color of

698
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: their skin.

699
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we're talking about okay, so freedom speech, freedom

700
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: and religion famously in the same amendment first Amendment, and

701
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean this is the equal and being

702
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 2: like we're just not allowing any Christians that, we're just

703
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: not allowing any Muslims in, We're just not allowing any Jews.

704
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: I mean, if you are basing entry based solely on

705
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 2: speech and in particular I mean, listen, I would object

706
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: on really on the grounds of a wide range of speech,

707
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: but if you are focused in particular on you are

708
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 2: not allowed to have a particular view of our foreign

709
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: policy of a particular foreign nation.

710
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 4: Like this is just complete insanity. You could not.

711
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: The turnaround between basing an entire movement on being anti

712
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: woke and embracing the most authoritarian woke elements and embodying

713
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: the state and using all of the levers of the state,

714
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: including things like.

715
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 4: The HHS, to effectuate your goals.

716
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: Like the fact that so few have anything to say

717
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: about this again tells you how seriously you should take

718
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: their commitment to literally anything, because this was so central,

719
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: The anti woke backlash was so so it really was

720
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: for a time the thing that was holding the Republican

721
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: Party together. And now they just turn on a dime

722
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: and are like, oh, they need safe spaces, and you know,

723
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: this is a microaggression. And here's a college student who

724
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 2: felt bad on campus because of a slogan. So we

725
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: need to you know, we need to crack down and

726
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 2: have arrests and deport people and hold them into detention,

727
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 2: et cetera.

728
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 4: It is wild.

729
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 3: This is the worst nightmare of any sort of woke

730
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 3: style revolution about the are using the federal government and

731
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: subjecting it to people, and even for those who are

732
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: you know like, oh, it's only just immigration. Well, we've

733
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,959
Speaker 3: already had several US citizens who have literally had their

734
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: rights denied and been expelled from college as a result

735
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 3: of demands from the United States federal government. These are

736
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 3: US citizens who have attended and paid for a full year,

737
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 3: four year college degree, who violated no university or no

738
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 3: university rules and are being forced out by the government

739
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 3: for their attendance to this place. So that in and

740
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 3: of itself is professors have also been fired. And again

741
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: this is not the government, They're not government employees. We're

742
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 3: talking about leveraging the government power of funding or whatever

743
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 3: demands and taking over the Middle Eastern Studies department at

744
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 3: Columbia University. That is literally out of the anti racist playbook.

745
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 3: If you guys have ever had the misfortune the.

746
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 4: Wildest dreams, they could not have achieved this level.

747
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.

748
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: As I actually read the anti racism book by I've

749
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 3: read them both by I Bringing Kenny, he actually proposes

750
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,959
Speaker 3: similar things to what they are doing now for anti Semitism,

751
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 3: going in leveraging the government demand, you know, implementing quotas.

752
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 3: I mean, can you imagine if they took over the

753
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: history department or whatever at the United at at the

754
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: University of Alabama, that would be insane, that.

755
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: Is what they are doing.

756
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 4: Now, that's right, what are we doing here?

757
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 2: And for all of you people like Soccer who are

758
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 2: who are here for the mass deportation? Okay, is it

759
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 2: really your priority to have huge numbers of ICE agents

760
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 2: tracking down some student who posted an op ed who

761
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: is here legally, by the way, lawfully you know, on

762
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: a either student visa or legal permanent resident, Like is

763
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 2: that your priority? Because there are finite resources here. So

764
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: instead of getting the you know, we're going to round

765
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: up the criminals and the terrorists, instead you're getting like,

766
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: you know, Mackmood Khalil, who dared participate in some protests,

767
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: or you're getting the girl who was vanished on the street,

768
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 2: disappeared because she dared publish the student newspaper op ed

769
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 2: calling for her university to divest from Israel. Like, it's

770
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 2: just it's just insanity and hypocrisy all the way around.

771
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: And as Sager said, if you think this is just

772
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: about immigrants, it's not. It's not even close to that,

773
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 2: because you already have students who are being punished US

774
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: citizens students. You already have them calling these protests, investigating

775
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 2: these protests as quote unquote terrorism. There is going to

776
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 2: be a huge there already is a huge crackdown against

777
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 2: any of the speci It comes at a time too,

778
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 2: where they've basically, i mean, Israel has lost effectively the

779
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: entire American population outside of like Republican boomers.

780
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 4: That's the only there's new polling that came out.

781
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 2: Asking about people's opinions on the state of Israel, and

782
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 2: the only demographic group that hadn't really moved and still

783
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: had a positive opinion of Israel was literally like older Republicans,

784
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 2: not even young Republicans. Young Republicans, and I'm talking like

785
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 2: under fifty Republicans under fifty. Now Israel is underwater with

786
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: their opinion. It's only older Republicans are the only ones

787
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: who still hold on to this view. So, you know,

788
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: Ryan said this, and I think it is it offers

789
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of hope, even as it's a very

790
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 2: hopeless situation. The Washington politicians had no limit for the

791
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 2: amount of slaughter that they would allow Israel and support

792
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: Israel and ship the bombs for Israel to commit, But

793
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 2: the American people did have a limit, of course. It's

794
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: you know, they like have completely turned on what has

795
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 2: been a multi multi decade long project and really glowing

796
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 2: sent bipartisan glowing sentiment around this country.

797
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: At a basic level, they are bombarded with propaganda and

798
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 3: told that all of these images, which are uncensored and

799
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 3: coming out of Gaza are necessary to accomplish an end.

800
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: And actually even if you look at polling or whatever,

801
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 3: they would buy that in the interim. But now after

802
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 3: what is it's April tenth, so eighteen months or so,

803
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 3: people are like, yeah, I'm just not buying this anymore, right,

804
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, how exactly what these people are

805
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 3: paying attention even if you're tangentially paying attention, and the

806
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 3: entire podcast ecosystem is moving against them. We had Tim

807
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 3: Dillon being like, as America just working for Israel. THEO

808
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 3: Vaughn just yesterday is like, I feel like we're owned

809
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 3: by Israel. We didn't even know about it. I mean,

810
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: you can see this stuff pervading into the public sphere.

811
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 3: Even Rogan has said a few things you know about Israel.

812
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 3: So look, it's it's getting pumped into the bloodstream in

813
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 3: a way that is not it is. You know, it's

814
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: not explicitly leftists or anything like that, but people are noticing,

815
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 3: People are noticing.

816
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and having our government seem to bend to the

817
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: will of Israel is not doing anything in terms of

818
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: some of the tropes like this is only furthering to

819
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: fuel the very anti Semitism that you purport to be

820
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 2: concerned about. I just want to let me give a

821
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 2: quick court update here, because this is really significant. We

822
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 2: covered earlier this week Supreme Court siding with the Trump

823
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 2: administration on the Alien Enemies Act. That is, of course

824
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 2: the justification the law that was invoked that Trump used

825
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 2: to ship hundreds of Venezuelan migrants to this dungeon on

826
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 2: Bukelly's Dungeon down in El Salvador with zero due process.

827
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 2: Supreme Court says, okay, you can, We're going to lift

828
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: the temporary restraining order. You can go forward with these

829
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: but they say you have to provide reasonable notice to

830
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: people who you are going to deport under this provision. Now,

831
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 2: they didn't define what reasonable notice was, so you know,

832
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 2: that left a lot of questions. They also said it

833
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 2: can't be done as sort of like a class You

834
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 2: have to file these individual habeas petitions in the district

835
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 2: where those migrants are being held. So most of the

836
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 2: migrants have been moved to Texas and Louisiana. These are

837
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 2: districts that are seemed to be more sympathetic to Trump. However,

838
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 2: now the Trump administration has just received two pretty significant

839
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,240
Speaker 2: court defeats in the wake of that Supreme Court decision.

840
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,280
Speaker 2: So let's put this up on the screen from Politico.

841
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 2: You had two different judges, one in New York and

842
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: one in Texas, who have now both limited Trump's bid

843
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 2: to deport alien enemies. Back to back rulings. Somebody go

844
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: ahead and read you the details here. You had one

845
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 2: federal judge in Texas on Wednesday, who was a Trump appointee,

846
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: block the Trump administration from deporting people designated as alien enemies,

847
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: citing that Supreme Court ruling and warning of the potential

848
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 2: for irreparable mistakes. You had another Manhattan District judge who

849
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 2: came out with a very similar ruling. This was a

850
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 2: Clinton appointed federal judge. Now, because of what the Supreme

851
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: Court did, this doesn't mean a blanket restraining order on

852
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: all deportations. They only apply for those districts, But the

853
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: Texas one in particular is significant because so many of

854
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 2: these migrants are being held in Texas in preparation for

855
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 2: these type of flights, and also indicate that you know,

856
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 2: the federal judges, whether they're appointed by Democrats or Republicans,

857
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: have a lot of deep concerns.

858
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 4: Both about there.

859
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 2: There's two pieces here that still have to be determined

860
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: whether these individuals even qualify as Alien enemies under this

861
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: act because they have to be proven to be Trended

862
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 2: Aragua gang members. We know it can put this next

863
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 2: piece up on the screen. We had previous reportings saying, hey,

864
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: seventy five percent of these people that you shipped off

865
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 2: had zero criminal record. Bloomberg did analysis. They found ninety

866
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 2: percent of migrants deported to El Salvador had no US

867
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 2: criminal record. So question number one is, okay, is it

868
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 2: just they have a tattoo to you you don't like

869
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 2: like you are they actually in trend To Aragua?

870
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 4: And question number two.

871
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 2: Is whether this was a lawful invocation of the Alien

872
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 2: Enemies Act to begin with, because they're using this, you know,

873
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 2: claim that Venezuela has invaded the country by their proxies

874
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 2: in Trendo Aragua. Previously, Alien Enemies Act has only been

875
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: used in like real wartime, like World War One, World

876
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 2: War two, that sort of thing. And so this is,

877
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: to say the least, an extraordinary interpretation that the Trump

878
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 2: administration has gone with. But it seems like even that

879
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 2: little opening that the Supreme Court gave of you have

880
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 2: to give reasonable notice and there has to be some

881
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 2: ability for these migrants to be able to pursue their claims.

882
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: That seems to have provided the window for these two

883
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 2: federal judges to be.

884
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: Able to push back. You have two interesting tros.

885
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: Were waiting to see what that is as you also,

886
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 3: Piasco told us about there's been no merit ruling yet

887
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: based on that basis, and could be rolled up over

888
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court. Okay, I think that's it for today.

889
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: Guys.

890
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 3: Do you have anything else you want to go into? Okay,

891
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 3: very good, all right, we got to get we're filming

892
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 3: this out of order. We were guest standing by That's

893
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:57,239
Speaker 3: why I'm doing this.

894
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: All right. We will see you guys later.

895
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 7: Would ta