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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network, Fantasy Best
Speaker 1: Friends Forever. M Do Do to Do Do Do Do
Speaker 1: Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do
Speaker 1: Do Do? Yeah? This Yes, the Fantasy Best Friends Forever.
Speaker 1: You're the Fantasy Sports Radio Network alongside Frankie Staffle. I
Speaker 1: am Greg Susman. Gregg A Happy Friday. You're gonna talk
Speaker 1: starting pitchers today. I mean it's gonna be a long,
Speaker 1: grueling process, gonna start the process of talking about starting pitching.
Speaker 1: It's probably gonna be like a three part series here,
Speaker 1: maybe even longer, who knows, but very excited, Greg, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it should be fun. Are you doing? How do you
Speaker 1: sleep last night? That is great that it had been
Speaker 1: to me. Oh I slept great? Did you yeah, I
Speaker 1: told you a little bit. That's out of my couch.
Speaker 1: Woke up in the middle of the night. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: slept her, I slept okay, Um, I like four forty two,
Speaker 1: specifically two. I woke up like the clock and I'm
Speaker 1: just like, I am awake now, I don't I'm not comfortable.
Speaker 1: I feel like gross, weird night Fromania. He's wearing the
Speaker 1: male ugs though, Yeah, that's definitely happy. Yea. The snow
Speaker 1: on the ground here in New York. Honestly, dude, I
Speaker 1: walk into freaking blizz this morning. I'm sorry. You get
Speaker 1: up later. Yeah, it was it really a blizzard, Greg not, Yeah,
Speaker 1: but it was snowing. It was snow. I didn't like
Speaker 1: wearing because it was every excuse to get his male
Speaker 1: uggs on. I'm not upset. I'm not shame by it.
Speaker 1: It's great. I mean, there's a lot of snow on
Speaker 1: the ground, I be fair, not really there is probably
Speaker 1: not even dude, I'm telling you, I'm not making that up.
Speaker 1: I think you're making it all right, that's what you think.
Speaker 1: It's fine. On the program today is Frank said, staring
Speaker 1: pictures right into it, top tier, right into it. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be joined from picture List. From at picture List,
Speaker 1: it's our guy, Nick Polk. Nick, welcome to program. What
Speaker 1: is happening? Thanks so much for having me today. I'm
Speaker 1: really excited to be here. Have you enjoyed our opening
Speaker 1: of It was great? You know I got to peer
Speaker 1: out my window and see some snow today. It was
Speaker 1: like a blizzard. I have to say, if it's anything,
Speaker 1: it's a blizzard here. Nick. Thank you. I don't you know,
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of picture list our guy Nick
Speaker 1: Pollock on Twitter, but already starting off on the wrong
Speaker 1: foot here. He's right, Nick, let's ask you Nick night,
Speaker 1: how did you? I had a fantastic sleep. That's good.
Speaker 1: You know, it makes really it makes one of us. Nick,
Speaker 1: That's fine. A right? Uh? You said all the show today.
Speaker 1: We're to dive into starting pictures over the next hour,
Speaker 1: and you're the guy to do what you follow him
Speaker 1: at picture List and you're doing a fantastic job breaking
Speaker 1: all of this down and hopefully you can help us, um,
Speaker 1: you can help us kind of decide things as we
Speaker 1: debate all of these starting pictures. We've gone through every
Speaker 1: single hit or category and never starting pitchers. We're getting
Speaker 1: relievers of course next week, we assume the starting pitchers
Speaker 1: gonna take us a while to get to UM, so
Speaker 1: we don't really have a limit on it per se,
Speaker 1: but we're gonna do the best we can. Sounds great,
Speaker 1: I mean this is what I do. This is uh
Speaker 1: I talked starting pitching every single night, every single doesn't
Speaker 1: get boring, never never, There's always something to talk about,
Speaker 1: like it's never ending, right, So like again we're gonna
Speaker 1: talk about some of the top tier guys and you know,
Speaker 1: we're splitting hairs with some of these guys obviously, but
Speaker 1: but then we're not. But look, it's an interesting time, right,
Speaker 1: Like I tweeted out, there's like an awesome amount of
Speaker 1: like names that are just going today, like in spring training,
Speaker 1: like super intriguing dudes from you know, let's see what
Speaker 1: Madison Bumgunna does this time around, because he got blasted
Speaker 1: his first time around, and he's a hot topic of conversation.
Speaker 1: You know, he slept super far in my uh my
Speaker 1: great Fantasy Baseball mutation. But they're like Michael Panietz on
Speaker 1: the Mount today, like Nick Kingham, John Gray, Aaron Sanchez,
Speaker 1: like Justice Sheffield. There is an infinite amount going on
Speaker 1: right now in terms of starting pitching both you know,
Speaker 1: for fantasy baseball and then in spring training. So look,
Speaker 1: it's never ending. So that's why that's why Nick is
Speaker 1: able to talk about it every single night. Greag actually
Speaker 1: actually this morning and before every single spring training day,
Speaker 1: I tweet out the pictures that are gonna be starting
Speaker 1: for the day, and that's what we should be looking for,
Speaker 1: at least the ones that we can see on TV. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So like today, Nick Kingham law time was apparently ninety four,
Speaker 1: and that's really cool because last year he was topping
Speaker 1: out in ninety nine and see him sitting there, Oh,
Speaker 1: that can nearly exciting me. Of Sheffield going today, we
Speaker 1: have Kintana hopefully is that two. We have engine Ru
Speaker 1: Maybe that change up is back again. Robbie raised there,
Speaker 1: Maybe the curveballs were working. They'll be great. There's so
Speaker 1: much stuff to talk about and it's just spring training,
Speaker 1: so I never get bored. This is starting pitching, the
Speaker 1: best position in fantasy baseball and the best fantasy sport.
Speaker 1: So I'm ready to do this if it's the best
Speaker 1: position in fantasy baseball and in any fantasy sport. In YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 1: Max is the best picture in fantasy baseball, he's the
Speaker 1: best picture in real life baseball. NFBC. He's going off
Speaker 1: the board number four. Can you make an argument that
Speaker 1: he should go off the board number one? No? I mean, okay,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm someone who preaches this A lot is wait
Speaker 1: a ton on starting pitching. I think I think entering
Speaker 1: two thousand twenty, we're gonna be talking about it being
Speaker 1: the year of starting pitching depth next year because we're
Speaker 1: not realizing how much stuff there is this year. I
Speaker 1: personally just gonna go for paths. That's why I did
Speaker 1: the other great fantacy based moremitational. I think I got
Speaker 1: Subbarino in the third round and then waited until Zach
Speaker 1: Wheeler at pick for my second guy, and I will
Speaker 1: not be going after shows. I don't think there's that
Speaker 1: necessity that a lot of people think there are. There
Speaker 1: are more, uh, there's more talent in the pool than
Speaker 1: uh than that. You don't need to go off to shows.
Speaker 1: Number one, Why not go for trout and bets. Your
Speaker 1: offense is gonna be so good just with those guys.
Speaker 1: You don't need shows or to anchor that staff. Look,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Look you can't make the argument, Greig.
Speaker 1: I know he just wanted to be baseball. He should
Speaker 1: be going, you know, in the middle of the first round.
Speaker 1: I think his ADP is adequate right now, maybe even
Speaker 1: a little high. But you know, really, once you get
Speaker 1: Trout and Bets off the board, I think you can
Speaker 1: make an argument for like and different guys that should
Speaker 1: go between like three and twelve. You can make the
Speaker 1: argument for any one of those guys, and I don't
Speaker 1: think that you get killed for it. Like again, you
Speaker 1: can make an argument for Jose Ramirez at three, Yellow
Speaker 1: Akunya Max Sers, or if you really wanted to Nolan Arronado,
Speaker 1: like you could. There's a lot of different ways you
Speaker 1: could go once those top two guys off board. But
Speaker 1: I agree Max Chers, there should not be in that conversation,
Speaker 1: like even in points leagues where I think pitching is
Speaker 1: even more important, especially like in my league's like the
Speaker 1: top starting pitchers outscored the top hitters. I mean we
Speaker 1: should probably like bring that range closer, Like starting pitcher
Speaker 1: shouldn't be outscoring hitters as much as they are. But
Speaker 1: even in that like format and head to head points,
Speaker 1: I'm still taking trout and bets over maxers tend ultimately,
Speaker 1: I tend to agree, and you know I said to
Speaker 1: ask the question. Then we get to a more fun topic,
Speaker 1: and that's Chris Sale versus Jacob de Graman Frank you,
Speaker 1: in all of your drafts, you've spoken about this a
Speaker 1: lot because you were a slaved business position scarce today
Speaker 1: that you were drafting an outfielder and you're drafting your
Speaker 1: starting pitcher and you pulled the starting pitchers up the
Speaker 1: board it than take a position ultimately that you did
Speaker 1: not want to and it was from your first Best
Speaker 1: Ball draft all the way through now where you have
Speaker 1: hold up Jacob Degram. You've pulled up Chris Sale. We
Speaker 1: are in March now, this is Fantasy Baseball draft month.
Speaker 1: We're in March. Officially you have to choose one right
Speaker 1: now to draft. Who would be Chris Sale or Jacob Degram. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's super clo close to me. Again, this is what
Speaker 1: we're talking about with splitting hairs. I worry a little
Speaker 1: bit more about And I don't even know if it's
Speaker 1: fair to say, right because like the two years before
Speaker 1: last year, like Chris Sale had gone over two endings,
Speaker 1: like each of them, what you just you watch him pitch,
Speaker 1: and as awesome as he is, you kind of do
Speaker 1: get scared just because, like as wiry as his frame is,
Speaker 1: and you know, he missed time last year. It's like
Speaker 1: me personally, I still kind of like worried that he's
Speaker 1: at more of an injury risk than a guy like
Speaker 1: Jacob Degram. I just think de Gram is safer in
Speaker 1: terms of the endings pitch. So if I'm choosing one
Speaker 1: of them, I'm taking to Graham. And you know, we've
Speaker 1: said this about some of the hitters, like Christian Yellows
Speaker 1: that's going in the first round Jose are Mira, is
Speaker 1: that even if they regress a little bit from their
Speaker 1: numbers last year, they could still pay off first round value.
Speaker 1: And I think that's a good way to sum it
Speaker 1: up with Jacob Agram right, Like he's probably not gonna
Speaker 1: be as good as he was last year. I mean
Speaker 1: he was like historically good. But even if he comes
Speaker 1: back to a you know, sub three e r A,
Speaker 1: and you know, the winds should be better because we
Speaker 1: all expect the Mets line up to be better this year,
Speaker 1: so he should get a little bit more run support.
Speaker 1: I think the strikeouts are still gonna be there. For
Speaker 1: de Graham. So even if the e R A and
Speaker 1: the Whip like regress a little bit and come back,
Speaker 1: I still think that he could pay off first round value.
Speaker 1: In bestball leagues, I'm more apt to take starting pitching
Speaker 1: early and get those those anchors and those guys that
Speaker 1: are gonna give you any's pitched just because it's best ball.
Speaker 1: Like you're not gonna be able to make moves once
Speaker 1: the season starts, so it's a little bit different there.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna want to try and get like one
Speaker 1: of these A starting pitchers, but I've kind of feared
Speaker 1: off a little bit in terms of, like when I'm
Speaker 1: doing these Rhoto drafts, I really do like that tear
Speaker 1: that you know, Paul Nick brought up about like Severino,
Speaker 1: I think, you know, if I could get two of
Speaker 1: the top starting pitchers, I think I'm all right with that.
Speaker 1: And that's kind of like what I did in my
Speaker 1: great fantasy based plantation I ended up with I didn't
Speaker 1: take a starting picture until around three. It's like Walker
Speaker 1: Bueller and I just followed it up with James Paxson
Speaker 1: in the fourth round. I'm all right with that, Like,
Speaker 1: as long as I get two of the top, like
Speaker 1: the fifteen twenties starting pitchers. I think I'm cool with that,
Speaker 1: So I'm not I've kind of like veered off of
Speaker 1: I don't think I have to have an ace like
Speaker 1: at the back end of the first round. There's so
Speaker 1: much hitting talent there too. Like trying to tell you,
Speaker 1: I was trying to tell you fifteen range like Aaron
Speaker 1: Judge and Jarcarlo Stanton and Alex Bregman and all these
Speaker 1: guys that are going in that range, it's kind of
Speaker 1: hard to argue against just like picking up two of
Speaker 1: those guys absolutely, And there's That's what to answer your question,
Speaker 1: long answer, it would take the ground over Christal all right,
Speaker 1: to go back to you, Nick answer Frank's long and
Speaker 1: whitey answer to grub Verse to Sale. If you're taking
Speaker 1: one of these guys, I know you can send you
Speaker 1: winning a pitching so you're not bring them up the
Speaker 1: board either. But if you feel or whoever's drafting fields
Speaker 1: are the best guy on the board, which one would
Speaker 1: you take? Chris Sale? Jacob de Gram? Now I'll be
Speaker 1: taking Jacob to Graham as well. Um, I think we
Speaker 1: do need to consider the fact that the Red Sox
Speaker 1: will be in a winning situation again and they will
Speaker 1: be able to baby Chris Sale in September again. I
Speaker 1: that is really concerning to see such a massive drop
Speaker 1: in velocity during the season, and we do have to
Speaker 1: take that into consideration. If you're going for a starter
Speaker 1: at the beginning of your drafts, it's about the floor,
Speaker 1: and I feel a little bit more comfortable with the GRAM. However,
Speaker 1: if you're talking about the quality of innings, if you
Speaker 1: say that it's two undered innings each for Sale and
Speaker 1: the GRAM, I'm going with Sale. But there's too much
Speaker 1: of a I don't know, a haze around Sale that
Speaker 1: I need to take to GRAM. Second. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: that's a good way to put it to right, Like
Speaker 1: if you were guaranteed to any pitch of each of
Speaker 1: these two guys, I agree, Like I think on a
Speaker 1: perst start ending basis, pitched for Chris Sales, he's going
Speaker 1: to be better. But I just I worry a little
Speaker 1: bit more about him getting closer to the two endings,
Speaker 1: you know, for reasons that Nick mentioned. I mean the
Speaker 1: fact that are the Red Sox really gonna need to
Speaker 1: push him throughout the throughout the regular season. I mean
Speaker 1: they need him for October like they did last year, right,
Speaker 1: So I think there's just a little bit more at
Speaker 1: stake there. I will say, Jacob Degram, I don't think
Speaker 1: is risk free. This whole talk about how potentially shutting
Speaker 1: himself down or like limiting his own endings if he
Speaker 1: doesn't get a contract extension throughout the season. That's kind
Speaker 1: of scared me off a little bit as well. I
Speaker 1: think it's all. I think it's all like leverage, leverage
Speaker 1: and and so on. Yeah, I mean, look, the thing is,
Speaker 1: I think you know, when you're considering taking a starting
Speaker 1: pitcher in the first round drag, you need to consider
Speaker 1: all of these things, like if you have a report,
Speaker 1: absolutely like throw it away. So he's just taking all
Speaker 1: It's just information, right, It's just information, you know, as
Speaker 1: good as de Gram and Sale are. I just I
Speaker 1: worry about the endings um and maybe a slight injury
Speaker 1: risk and the decreased velocity with Chris Sale a little bit,
Speaker 1: and then with Jacob to ground, I do worry about
Speaker 1: like and potentially you know, limiting his endings or whatever. Um.
Speaker 1: So that's kind of why I've like kind of backed
Speaker 1: off taking a starting pitch pulling those guys up to
Speaker 1: the board where you know you can kind of you
Speaker 1: can just take two of these like so called aces
Speaker 1: like I think, I think you know is an a
Speaker 1: while ago. Look a lot of it comes down to
Speaker 1: roster construction too, because in the Great fantasy based prementational
Speaker 1: Rice Harper felt to me in the middle of the
Speaker 1: second round, I had picked eight. So so you know,
Speaker 1: I take Jose Ramirez first and then I get Bryce
Speaker 1: Harper in the second round. I didn't want to like
Speaker 1: take a Aaron Nola or um, you know, pull someone
Speaker 1: up else up the board there in the second like
Speaker 1: I wanted Bryce Harper, he felt to me, and that
Speaker 1: was the best player available in my opinion, So I
Speaker 1: took him, and then you kind of adjust from there,
Speaker 1: and you know, you want to get your aces after that,
Speaker 1: and you know that's what I did with Walker Bueller
Speaker 1: and James Paxson. So it's not, as I think concrete
Speaker 1: that you have to take a starting picture in the
Speaker 1: first two rounds. Maybe, as I let on early on,
Speaker 1: fair enough, fair enough, um Nick, I want to go
Speaker 1: back to you because I think as much fun as
Speaker 1: that was, whatever, do you have an opinion, I'm just
Speaker 1: here bashing everybody. I would only just you my bashing Nick.
Speaker 1: I like Nick. My opinion is like you know me, Frank,
Speaker 1: I always want to try. I always want to try.
Speaker 1: You own one of these three players I could. I
Speaker 1: don't want to rule that out. But as I've been
Speaker 1: kind of saying to you towards the end of the
Speaker 1: first round, in the early second round, there's so many
Speaker 1: good hitters that I don't want to let them necessarily go.
Speaker 1: Problem is, you don't know what you're guarantee. If you're
Speaker 1: guaranteeing me Severino around three, I would let him go
Speaker 1: out happily. I would happily let them go. I just
Speaker 1: don't know that I can do that. I like walking
Speaker 1: away with a hitter and a picture if possible. If
Speaker 1: it's not there, it's not there. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: force it. Like I'm happy to take No. One hour
Speaker 1: Nado at eight or nine, which is what we've talked about,
Speaker 1: as an eight or ninth best player on the board,
Speaker 1: and they come back around and take Artragelog Like I'll
Speaker 1: do that if there's no speed there. But like you
Speaker 1: know what I'm you know what I'm saying, right, And
Speaker 1: I'm happy to do that rather than force um the
Speaker 1: gram or sale, because I don't know that the next
Speaker 1: group is seemingly that far away, and even if they
Speaker 1: are far away right now, as you sela Jacob deGrom
Speaker 1: last year, certainly they could enter into that territory. So
Speaker 1: I don't feel um pressured to get one of these
Speaker 1: three guy britty guys. But I do feel like it's
Speaker 1: you know, it's fine. I don't have a problem with it.
Speaker 1: Basically cool to answer your question, appreciate it as as
Speaker 1: little fun as those three guys are. I think what
Speaker 1: makes the next batch of guys much more fun is well,
Speaker 1: who goes next? Right in this crew with an a
Speaker 1: d P According to the NFBC, all within like ten
Speaker 1: spots of each other, justin Corey Kluber, Our, Nola Garrett
Speaker 1: hole Like Snell, Trevor Bauer, Luis Savaino, Carlos Grasco man
Speaker 1: like all these guys together. So excited to talk to you,
Speaker 1: Nick Pollock about how you order these guys, why you
Speaker 1: order them in which way, and when they should be drafted.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the next you know, ted pictures
Speaker 1: are so we come back. Fantasy best Friends Forever. Fantasy
Speaker 1: Sports radio network Daily rodo dot Com learned from the
Speaker 1: game's best DFS players. We don't just give you advice.
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Speaker 1: which take Harper of Chota Carper, which take Harper gold,
Speaker 1: Schmian go with Lean Harper, I take Harper over, saying
Speaker 1: me too, I take Harbow Rail Tube. Yeah. I've never
Speaker 1: been a huge old Tube fan, right, John. I think
Speaker 1: Harker is probably in that eleven to fifteen n Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you have to know that there's definitely some risk
Speaker 1: with him. Weekdays to the four BM Easter on the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Sports Network and on your popular podcast providers through
Speaker 1: About the Lucky Empie as well woll woll Well Fantasy
Speaker 1: Best Friends Forever Left it up. Here are the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Sports Radio Network, Greg Sauceman, Frank Sample, Nick Pollock hanging out.
Speaker 1: It's Friday man, So whatever, Nick, we couldn't see you
Speaker 1: obviously while we're dancing and singing. Did you did you
Speaker 1: join along there or you just more of a reserve type. No,
Speaker 1: I was definitely dancing. It was a great time. I
Speaker 1: want to that's what I do. I want to confirm
Speaker 1: that Nick was dancing. So Sean Pavon, if you could
Speaker 1: just hit that again just to just to make sure
Speaker 1: so we can see it, and he was dancing. I'd
Speaker 1: appreciate it. All right, Let's let's get Nick on the screen.
Speaker 1: Here we go. There, that's what I do. I'm subtle.
Speaker 1: It wasn't like an out. It was too a little
Speaker 1: busson right, a little buffing right. It's a little week.
Speaker 1: It's a little weak for me, even if you're rocketing
Speaker 1: pretty sick. Joey, Oh yeah, it's um, it's actually lu
Speaker 1: Casey or for Gazy. Oh that's that's a picture list
Speaker 1: shirt where we don't know where we're gonna get from
Speaker 1: Joey lu Casey and to give it night. Is he
Speaker 1: gonna be a lu Casey? Is he gonna be a Gazy?
Speaker 1: We don't know. Martinez. Martinez would rock the crist network.
Speaker 1: He loves. He used the term he loves Lucazi Fugaz.
Speaker 1: You gotta tell him that one. Well, you gotta go
Speaker 1: to picture list dot com slash store and get one.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna show. I'm gonna show him, alright, picture lists
Speaker 1: dot Com slash store to get your own Lucas got
Speaker 1: over there. Oh yeah, have a ton We have tie Owned,
Speaker 1: which is one of my favorite ones, which is essentially
Speaker 1: just tie owned with the five zero and it. We
Speaker 1: also have uh, fancy football is stupid. I absolutely love
Speaker 1: that one. You can't spell win with Tillman. That's a classic.
Speaker 1: We have a couple more than I'm obviously forgetting right now,
Speaker 1: but live it every day. Oh yeah, that's a great one.
Speaker 1: That's one of the first ones we made. I love it.
Speaker 1: I say it every time. I like that. Don't trust
Speaker 1: a knuckleball some man. Good stuff on here. And one
Speaker 1: of the most one of the most common phrases you
Speaker 1: have on your site is ACE is gonna Ace. Yes,
Speaker 1: And we are talking about aces that we hope ace
Speaker 1: really all season long, we're trying to figure out how
Speaker 1: to break down these aces, which one we like, which
Speaker 1: one we don't, and the order that we should be
Speaker 1: drafting them in the next two guys coining the NFBC
Speaker 1: or Verlander and Corey Kluber. And yet it's funny because
Speaker 1: when Frank and I were talking about a strategy for
Speaker 1: a draft that we're co owning in, I'm like, I
Speaker 1: don't know about I don't know these guys like agism,
Speaker 1: for sure, you just expect the decline rather be a
Speaker 1: year earlier year later that that whole deal, and you're like,
Speaker 1: what do you do that? Justin Berlander and Corey Gloober
Speaker 1: So okay, you go the next guys like Aaron Nola.
Speaker 1: He has his own shirt on pitcher list dot Com.
Speaker 1: I like him, So I'm like, all right, I like Nola,
Speaker 1: Philly great National League. Garrett Cole was amazing last year.
Speaker 1: Blake Snell's your side. Young Award winner, Trevor Bower is
Speaker 1: getting so much love, Luis Savria, Macarlos Crasco. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of names here. How do you break
Speaker 1: it down? Yeah, I actually see in the next three guys.
Speaker 1: It's a pretty easy tear to me. And it's the
Speaker 1: ones that I do expect to go about two innings
Speaker 1: with elite strike out stuff, and that's Verlander, Bauer and
Speaker 1: Coal in order. Verlander having a fastball essentially be his
Speaker 1: prime fastball from like two thousand twelve at the top
Speaker 1: of the line and we're not talking ninety three miles,
Speaker 1: We're talking ninety five on that pitch, consistently swinging Strake
Speaker 1: grade of fourteen point five percent last year, which is
Speaker 1: far and away the best mark he's ever had. In
Speaker 1: his career. It's a career mark of ten point five
Speaker 1: percent swinging strake grade four teen point five, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden phenomenal, I see a workhorse here, plus of
Speaker 1: elite strikeout rates. I don't see him, honestly half far
Speaker 1: off from sale and uh into Grom honestly, and I
Speaker 1: see what he did last year is very legitimate. So
Speaker 1: he is the clear number four to me. Uh And
Speaker 1: when we talk about the others Klueber, Savarino, Syndergard, etcetera,
Speaker 1: there's a lot more concern I think they're especially at
Speaker 1: the two hundred inning threshold than there is with Verlander.
Speaker 1: I see Trevor Bauer as someone that has been elite
Speaker 1: for a year and a half now, not a year.
Speaker 1: He introduced a new slider for him his cutter in
Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen, the second half had a lot of
Speaker 1: success there pointed to a possible breakout in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eighteen. That's exactly what we saw. I see a
Speaker 1: guy that can go two hundred innings easily. The only
Speaker 1: thing that stopped him from doing that last year was
Speaker 1: a linebacker into his like, so I don't see why
Speaker 1: he can't do that this year. He's even talked a
Speaker 1: ton about pushing himself and you know, being Max all
Speaker 1: the time and one year contracts. This is someone who
Speaker 1: can give you two two D twenty innings this year
Speaker 1: of elite of elite quality innings. And they have Garrick Cole,
Speaker 1: who obviously I don't really need to say much about
Speaker 1: his breakout last year thirty four point five percent strikeout rates,
Speaker 1: two hundred frames. I can see a lot of the
Speaker 1: same there. It's a little bit more of a risk
Speaker 1: I think in the ear A department concerning he had
Speaker 1: such an amazing start of the year and they did
Speaker 1: slow down a bit after and at home run rate
Speaker 1: probably will be around love and percent or so. But
Speaker 1: I still see him as two hundred plus quality innings, uh,
Speaker 1: and more of a safer bank than the ones that follow. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I am in complete agreement with with Verlander and
Speaker 1: and Garrit Cole. I know that you're you're kind of
Speaker 1: you want to do the one year earlier rather than
Speaker 1: but but Greg, in terms of like everything that you've seen,
Speaker 1: like velocity still being there, like the swinging strike rate
Speaker 1: was ridiculous last year, there's nothing. He's joined Houston and
Speaker 1: you know, look I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: technically side with Trevor Bauer here, but anyone who goes
Speaker 1: to Houston, uh, you know they get a little bit
Speaker 1: more spin on the ball for whatever reason, those curveballs
Speaker 1: they are working. So look, Verlander has been ridiculous since
Speaker 1: he's joined, uh the Houston Astros, and then with Gerrit Cole,
Speaker 1: like I think for me, he's the next one up, right,
Speaker 1: Like if you are slightly worried about the age concern
Speaker 1: with a Justin Verlander, which I am not, but you
Speaker 1: might be, why don't why not just pivot off to
Speaker 1: a guy like Garrick Cole who is younger, is on
Speaker 1: the same team, Like he's gonna get run support. As
Speaker 1: hard as it is to predict wins, like we think
Speaker 1: the Houston a Shops are gonna win a lot of games, right. So,
Speaker 1: and you know his first year with Houston very similar,
Speaker 1: Like you see the strike out rate go up, the
Speaker 1: swinging strikes. He was just awesome, like he finally he
Speaker 1: put it all together. You know, one of Matt Modiquas
Speaker 1: guys from last year say this a lot about like,
Speaker 1: all right, Modica, who are your guys last year? He
Speaker 1: was in on Garrit Colet. He's been on Aaronola for
Speaker 1: a couple of years now. Trevor Bauer is the one
Speaker 1: that I find a little bit more interesting here, Nick,
Speaker 1: And look, I can't knock it in terms of the skills,
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right about the slider. Since he's introduced that
Speaker 1: pitch a year and a half, algo, he's been awesome. Uh,
Speaker 1: He's he hasn't topped a hundred and nine innings. Um,
Speaker 1: he's only done it once. Rather in I hear what
Speaker 1: you're saying about the line, the liner that he took
Speaker 1: last year off the leg that kind of prevented him.
Speaker 1: But he isn't a contract year, so you have that
Speaker 1: narrative as well. Like I think if if there's anything
Speaker 1: that's going to uh to motivate a guy like Trevor Bout,
Speaker 1: I mean he's like very outspoken, Like you know, he
Speaker 1: goes on Twitter all the time, he goes on these
Speaker 1: rants and stuff. There's anything that's going to motivate him.
Speaker 1: The fact that you know he's playing for a long
Speaker 1: term contract coming up. I think that is. But I
Speaker 1: find the interesting that you kind of you want you
Speaker 1: want Trevor Bauer and with with the this trio in
Speaker 1: the second round rather than a guy like Aaron Nolan.
Speaker 1: Everyone seems pretty excited. So al right, well, two things
Speaker 1: there about Clubber. If you want to talk about ageism
Speaker 1: and falling off, he actually has the signs of degradation
Speaker 1: that you should be worried about, as opposed to Verlander,
Speaker 1: who doesn't What signs? What what signs are you referring
Speaker 1: to here? Yeah, decline, specifically declining fastball and the fact
Speaker 1: that he lost seven ticks of swing straight right on
Speaker 1: his cutter. That's really scary. It's still a great pitch,
Speaker 1: but seeing his secondary stuff that has been supporting a
Speaker 1: bad fastball for a long time getting worse. It's just
Speaker 1: kind of will be looking back at it in a
Speaker 1: year or two saying, oh, yeah, here's a straight decline
Speaker 1: and we've should have seen this coming. It does make
Speaker 1: me scary. I still have Corey Cliber at seven because
Speaker 1: I think his concerns are not or they're just a
Speaker 1: lot of concerns after and he just fine, I'll allow
Speaker 1: it for one more year with Corey Kluber. But if
Speaker 1: you're going to talk about you know, I don't want
Speaker 1: to be one year too late. I want to be
Speaker 1: one year too early. Klueber is actually, I think the
Speaker 1: one that you should be scared of the most. Um
Speaker 1: now with Aaron Nola. I actually have been the biggest
Speaker 1: Aaron Nola fan since like two thousand and fifteen, and
Speaker 1: it's burned me obviously until last year. And that's why
Speaker 1: I actually live every day like it's Nola Day. Is
Speaker 1: a long time thing on the site. Uh, this is
Speaker 1: the first year that I'm not on the Aeronola train.
Speaker 1: I had him at number ten originally, actually now have
Speaker 1: Sabrino above him at eleven. Uh. There are a couple
Speaker 1: of things of an Aeronol that scared me. One that
Speaker 1: he has had an injury history. Last year was the
Speaker 1: first year that it was okay, everything was fine, but
Speaker 1: he has had back trouble in the past as well.
Speaker 1: I don't like that. I also don't like the fact
Speaker 1: that he doesn't have the same elite numbers as other
Speaker 1: guys that we're talking about here. It's a three forty Sierra.
Speaker 1: On top of that that is uh adjusting to his
Speaker 1: expecting home own rates. The fact that the Phillies defense
Speaker 1: isn't that great and he shouldn't be containing a two
Speaker 1: fifty one Babbitt being a heavy groundball pitcher that generally
Speaker 1: speaks to a higher babbit than that. And while he
Speaker 1: has a towel point five percent swings streaker, which is great,
Speaker 1: I regenerated k rate and I don't think he takes
Speaker 1: the leap of being at plus k rate like we
Speaker 1: do everybody else in front of him. So it all
Speaker 1: adds up to maybe sub two inning pitched, maybe a
Speaker 1: three or so ear Ray with k Ray in a
Speaker 1: one to one ten whip, and that's great, But I
Speaker 1: think the other guys have just a higher ceiling without
Speaker 1: much of a different floor. So that's why I'm a
Speaker 1: bit out on Nola. It's really weird saying that because
Speaker 1: he's my boy, uh and uh, but that's just kind
Speaker 1: of the state of it right now. And I think
Speaker 1: that makes sense too. Right. So, when we had Modica on,
Speaker 1: he talks a lot about price for prop right, like
Speaker 1: buying not just pictures but players, right that that obviously
Speaker 1: can profit where you're where you're drafting them right now.
Speaker 1: So now now, Aaron Nola, you're kind of drafting him
Speaker 1: based on last year's results, and you know, this is
Speaker 1: actually actually an interesting exercise. Nick that you know, I've
Speaker 1: saw I saw people point this out on Twitter before,
Speaker 1: is that if you look at the FIP and the
Speaker 1: ex fifit and si era of Aaron Nola over the
Speaker 1: past three seasons, it's it's been unchanged. His e ARRA
Speaker 1: has been all over the place during that span, right.
Speaker 1: So last year he was two point three seven, the
Speaker 1: year before that he was three five four, and then
Speaker 1: in sixteen he was four seven eight. But his fit
Speaker 1: has been between three zero eight and three to seven
Speaker 1: all those seasons, right, and his exit has been between
Speaker 1: zero eight and three three eight all those seasons, right,
Speaker 1: So he's probably somewhere in the middle, like he might
Speaker 1: be closer to his seventeen I think he's a better
Speaker 1: picture than that, you know, I think he's better than
Speaker 1: like a three five e r A. He's maybe a
Speaker 1: you know, a low threes e r A. So I
Speaker 1: kind of get what Nick is talking about here with
Speaker 1: Aaron Nola. And you know the case per nine, uh
Speaker 1: you know, they're they're nine and a half. But the
Speaker 1: swinging strike rate was a career high last year in
Speaker 1: terms of it was twelve percent, So maybe that uh
Speaker 1: those k per nine the strikeout rate overall comes up
Speaker 1: a little bit for Aaronola, but he doesn't have the
Speaker 1: same upside in like a Garrett Cole where he's giving
Speaker 1: you eleven twelve case per nine, and same thing with
Speaker 1: Justin Verlander, where you know we've seen those guys go
Speaker 1: two under any multiple years in a row. Now, I
Speaker 1: think it's fair to put Trevor Bauer closer to like
Speaker 1: the Aaron Nolah, Like if you're really like micro managing
Speaker 1: this this tier of starting pitching, like in the second round,
Speaker 1: I think Justin Verlander and Garrett Cole are ahead of
Speaker 1: both Bauer and Nola. And then I think Bauer is
Speaker 1: kind of closer to Aaronola, like on a per game basis,
Speaker 1: he might be better, but I do have some concerns
Speaker 1: with him as well in terms in terms of getting
Speaker 1: the two pitched. He's never done it. Aaronola actually did
Speaker 1: do it last year. So I think those guys are
Speaker 1: kind of like later second round, whereas I feel a
Speaker 1: little bit tad safer with guys like Garrett Cole and
Speaker 1: Justin Verlander. Again, I mean we're just finding stuff to
Speaker 1: like split hairs here between these starting pitchers would have
Speaker 1: interested in trying to figure out is Nick, you had Verlander,
Speaker 1: Bower and Cole in that tier together. You haven't basically
Speaker 1: at four or five and six. He told me that
Speaker 1: you just told me that Seborino and Nola are ten
Speaker 1: and eleven. That leaves seven, eight, nine, And I'm trying
Speaker 1: to figure out who you have there? Are we talking
Speaker 1: Carlos Carrasco, Blake Snella? What are you thinking in the
Speaker 1: tier between these guys? So so it's not Carrasco. I'm
Speaker 1: actually someone that has never drafted Carrasco, say, for I
Speaker 1: think of two thousand and fifteen or so. I'm worried
Speaker 1: about his health, and I think that his overall repertoire
Speaker 1: just doesn't speak to uh elongated success like the other guys,
Speaker 1: especially bad fastball, like really bad fastball. Um, but actually
Speaker 1: I have Suberino above synder Guard. Synder Guard is now
Speaker 1: at ten, it's Clubber at seven, Snell at eight, Seby nine, etcetera. Um,
Speaker 1: you do still have Clubber right in that mix despite
Speaker 1: the decline we see coming. It's kind of like the
Speaker 1: tier of all Right, all these guys can be great
Speaker 1: in amazing, but there are problems that we need to
Speaker 1: address in question marks that I think honestly. I mean, Frank,
Speaker 1: you're talking about the concerns of Bauer. Bauer would have
Speaker 1: had two hundred innings in previous years. He like, he
Speaker 1: has the ability. It's just that he was bad back then.
Speaker 1: That was that was literally the reason why he didn't Uh,
Speaker 1: he didn't even get full starts. Uh. You know, he
Speaker 1: had some relief appearances because he wasn't great until he
Speaker 1: got great, and then pretty much he was just rolling
Speaker 1: and would have easily gone over two hundred before. For
Speaker 1: that Liner, I'm not worried about that two hundred innings concerned. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I'm more worried about it for Nola than I am
Speaker 1: for Bauer. Um. But it's talking about the concerns already
Speaker 1: talked about Clueber a bit about why I think he
Speaker 1: might take a step back this year With Blake Snell,
Speaker 1: I mean, there's not much more I need to say
Speaker 1: than to forty one babbit and eight percent left the
Speaker 1: base rate. It's really hard to expect those kind of
Speaker 1: numbers to repeat. And then again that return of nine
Speaker 1: year ray Uh, maybe that you know, full takeoff is
Speaker 1: still underneath three. Yes. At the same time, I also
Speaker 1: think that the Rays are gonna baby him a little bit.
Speaker 1: They are definitely one of those organizations that understands the
Speaker 1: value of a good bullpen or utilizing it a lot.
Speaker 1: And we saw, especially in the second half, they were
Speaker 1: just completely easy on Snell. They didn't even let him
Speaker 1: go deeper into games because he was coming off of
Speaker 1: injury and they just had no reason to really push him.
Speaker 1: So I can see that happen again. And it's a
Speaker 1: little tougher for me to see two hundred strong innings
Speaker 1: from Snell than the other guys. But at eight, I mean,
Speaker 1: he clearly hasn't made with fastballs up, curveball, slider down
Speaker 1: with a really good changeup as his fourth pitch. Now,
Speaker 1: I actually you can't see it, but on my wall
Speaker 1: I have framed uh the strikes one plot of the
Speaker 1: game he had against the Seattle Mariners on June three,
Speaker 1: where he has just four steamers elevated and curveballs and
Speaker 1: sliders at the bottom of the zone. It's one of
Speaker 1: my favorite things in my room. So I love his transition.
Speaker 1: I love his new approach. I really do think it
Speaker 1: sticks through a lot of high praise here when it
Speaker 1: comes to Trevor Bauer, I mean, that's one of my
Speaker 1: biggest takeaways here is how good do you expect Bauer
Speaker 1: to be in this tire um amongst Verlander and amongst
Speaker 1: Garrett Cole, and ahead of similar more known commodities essentially
Speaker 1: um with Aaron Nola, with Blake snell Um and and
Speaker 1: certainly Corey Kluber as well. Frank, I know you're not
Speaker 1: and you gave us a couple of reasons, but if
Speaker 1: you don't mind going a bit more in depth while
Speaker 1: you're not as in is Nick probably on Trevor Bauer.
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know. I didn't. I didn't say
Speaker 1: you're out because I don't think you are out, but
Speaker 1: I know you're not as hot. Yeah, I think it's
Speaker 1: I hear what you're saying about the the endings. It's
Speaker 1: just it's it's some somewhat concerns me. Look, he's pitching
Speaker 1: for a contract, so I can see that. On a
Speaker 1: pers star basis, I think he's going to be awesome.
Speaker 1: I just me personally, the fact that i've seen eyes
Speaker 1: like Verlander, and you know, maybe it's just like an
Speaker 1: I think you know, I've seen Verlander and Garrett cold
Speaker 1: go two under any page before and you know, maybe
Speaker 1: it's not even fair to say. And that's why we
Speaker 1: have Nick here to kind of tell us why he
Speaker 1: does expect Trevor Bauer to kind of get there this season.
Speaker 1: So I think it's just I prefer those guys, the
Speaker 1: Astros guys, and I believe you had them ranked ahead
Speaker 1: of him as well, Nick, right, like you have the
Speaker 1: as between them between. But I understand the concerns about Er.
Speaker 1: I mean to help you out. He had a one
Speaker 1: on nine whip last year. That's not the sub one
Speaker 1: that we've seen from other guys. Uh So it's, as
Speaker 1: you said it yourself, it is splitting hairs. It's okay
Speaker 1: if people, you know, want to go with Nola instead.
Speaker 1: I just like the fact that Bauer actually is lower
Speaker 1: in ADP. So when we're talking about going after it
Speaker 1: started maybe in the third round, I've been fortunate to say, Okay, great, cool,
Speaker 1: I'll take Trevor Bauer often, so it's all right. I
Speaker 1: feel it's so close that you can wait. It's just
Speaker 1: an argument to say, just wait till the third round
Speaker 1: and get Trevor Bauer. You know what's another case for
Speaker 1: drafting Trevor Bauer is the the division that he plays him, yes,
Speaker 1: in a center like Aaron Nolan is gonna have to
Speaker 1: face him. The Mets lineup that we like, the Braves,
Speaker 1: the Nationals lineup like not really the easiest division. I mean, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, taking a break. We've heard of that. Carlos Crasco.
Speaker 1: Let's hear bro about Louis Saberina from Nick Pollock. Nick Pollock,
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Speaker 1: anywhere more. Sala two thousand and fifteen, two thousands and
Speaker 1: sixteen Europe being Long Drive Tour Champion two thousand seventeen
Speaker 1: World number one me personally, I keep my game face
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Speaker 1: picture list dot com to follow h Nick at picture
Speaker 1: List to just such a great job breaking down all
Speaker 1: the pictures as we found out today where Frank and
Speaker 1: I joined the bridge just looked at each other like,
Speaker 1: as we already think this is Aaron Milo Trevor Bauer thing.
Speaker 1: That's why we bring him on to make this reeth
Speaker 1: We are completely just rethinking all of this, and you
Speaker 1: have you rethinking about Carlos Carrasco. I wanted to get
Speaker 1: me to get your your thoughts here on the next guys,
Speaker 1: unless something else you wanted to bring up some of
Speaker 1: the pictures we talked about already. Are you good? No,
Speaker 1: I'm cool with those guys. I mean the Corey Cooper
Speaker 1: thing is interesting. I think a lot of people are
Speaker 1: still going to try and buy back in. That's why
Speaker 1: you see his ADP where it's at. Where he's he's
Speaker 1: going in at pick twenty four in NFBC ADP, so
Speaker 1: he's going in, you know, the middle of the second round,
Speaker 1: uh in fifteen team drafts. I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people are still going to try and buy in based
Speaker 1: on name value. I mean, where do you kind of
Speaker 1: draw the line, Nick, Like I know you told us
Speaker 1: where you rank him. But you know, if you have
Speaker 1: these concerns, shouldn't we we rank him lower than where
Speaker 1: he is, Like you know and your teams like is
Speaker 1: he an active like a player that you're trying to
Speaker 1: avoid because of like these concerns that you have. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a good question. Um, everyone has a price.
Speaker 1: Of course I have him at seven because the other
Speaker 1: guys are about to talk about Snell, Savarino, syndergar Nelo.
Speaker 1: They also all have their concerns, and it's just a
Speaker 1: matter of when I am actually looking to get a
Speaker 1: starter who is on the board. I don't expect to
Speaker 1: own Cluber because as you're mentioning name value and the
Speaker 1: history that Cluber has, they're going to look past the
Speaker 1: fact that he has lowest swinging striker overall since twos
Speaker 1: and fourteen, the lowest fastball velocity has had that stepback,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned before on that signature breaking ball. It's
Speaker 1: just all little concerning for me. But at the same
Speaker 1: same time, he's had five straight years of two specially
Speaker 1: and he still had a sub three year rate even
Speaker 1: with those stepbacks last season. It is concerning. We'll say,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people forget that it is
Speaker 1: a twenty six point five percent UH strikeout rate, which
Speaker 1: isn't the elites that you know, the Reminder and Cole
Speaker 1: and that Baruer can have. And yes, he did have
Speaker 1: a thirty four percent mark into US in seventeen, but
Speaker 1: I honestly don't think that he'll have another thirty percent
Speaker 1: strikeout rate in his career. Again, that's the outlier with
Speaker 1: right exactly if you look down, he's basically been between
Speaker 1: twenty six and twenty eight percent strikeout rate and every
Speaker 1: year since except for seventeen when he had that percent
Speaker 1: strikeout right like, that is the outlier. I mean, he
Speaker 1: was absolutely phenomenal in seventeen and there's no debating that.
Speaker 1: But again, his strand rate that year was nearly eighty
Speaker 1: three percent. So um, as great as he was, he's
Speaker 1: a two point to five yar A like his FIP,
Speaker 1: his x FPCR we're all higher. So that really as
Speaker 1: good as Cluber is, I think he's a great picture. Um.
Speaker 1: I do think that his seventeen was somewhat of an outlier,
Speaker 1: but but the endings pitched, those are pretty safe when
Speaker 1: it does come to clublue right, because he's been he's
Speaker 1: been at least two hundred and three endings pitched for
Speaker 1: five seasons in a row. I mean in a in
Speaker 1: an era right now where you know, there's not many
Speaker 1: pitchers who are going two endings pitched. Um. Clober I
Speaker 1: think is probably one of the safer there. So like
Speaker 1: maybe you give him a bump up in points leagues
Speaker 1: where like the volume and the endings pitched and the
Speaker 1: durability is um that obviously helps in Points lee Like
Speaker 1: the best ability for Points League is availability, like you
Speaker 1: really you you need you need those guys, whereas in
Speaker 1: Rhodo it's kind of like how good are you when
Speaker 1: you're actually pitching. It's like on a perse start like
Speaker 1: per game basis, it's a little bit different in that regard.
Speaker 1: So maybe a bump up a little bit in points leagues,
Speaker 1: But I agree, like I think the Astros guys specifically,
Speaker 1: uh and you know now that we're talking to Nick Bauer, Um,
Speaker 1: I think those guys have more upside on a per
Speaker 1: star basis, especially with the strikeouts than a guy like Cluber. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that's act Um as well, guys, And I
Speaker 1: think you make really good points where it's not even
Speaker 1: that he's bad. We're Whenny taking right, We're trying to
Speaker 1: break all of these guys down as best as we
Speaker 1: can and try to tell you when to draft them,
Speaker 1: which one to leave on the board, and hope we'll
Speaker 1: still be there around Um, around the turn and come
Speaker 1: back around to you. One of those guys can be
Speaker 1: Louis Sevreno here, and I wanted to get into Louisa
Speaker 1: Luis Sevreno with the Yankees. Keep harping on you, Frank saying, hey,
Speaker 1: we can get Savorrena, we can get Saborrena, we can
Speaker 1: seering on. I feel like I've gotten you there. We're like, cool,
Speaker 1: we'll take Sevarrino. Um, you have Sabreno around number nine
Speaker 1: or ten, Nick, and you have ahead of most Synderguard
Speaker 1: a head of Walker Bueller, So it sounds like you're
Speaker 1: pretty in on Sevorreno as well. Yeah, I would say
Speaker 1: synder Guard, Saberna, Nol are all very very close to me. Um.
Speaker 1: The fact that I just had sever Arena behind Nola
Speaker 1: and then leap frogged both him and synder Guard, it's
Speaker 1: it's such a conundrument. It's really frustrating because obviously you
Speaker 1: have that amazing start of the year that was eighteen
Speaker 1: star arts of sub two ear a k rates, a
Speaker 1: sub one whip. He was going about six and two
Speaker 1: thirds per game at that point, which is phenomenal. And
Speaker 1: then obviously, of course he had that seven start run
Speaker 1: and when he just could not stop letting up fastballs
Speaker 1: sorry home runs off of his fastball, and there was
Speaker 1: a lot of talk about him tipping. There was talk
Speaker 1: about his slider not having the same feel, and the
Speaker 1: more and more I thought about it, I realized that's
Speaker 1: a seven start sample over two seasons that is making
Speaker 1: us move away from Sebrena, and that just doesn't seem
Speaker 1: right to me. And I completely agree, by the way.
Speaker 1: That's kind of why I'm very much back in because
Speaker 1: Nick Greg's also a Yankees fan, So I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: a Yankees fan too, but I don't let it affect
Speaker 1: my now. Listen, I'm I'm a Yankee fan. But Severino
Speaker 1: was just too good in the first half and too
Speaker 1: good the year before to let seven starts kind of
Speaker 1: dictate how we feel about him. And I understand that
Speaker 1: with so many of the hitters we've talked about, we've
Speaker 1: looked at their second half and said, hey, you can
Speaker 1: build upon this and you want to do that severy
Speaker 1: you know, well, you're not to take him as a
Speaker 1: tenth picture off the board. Look, second half performance isn't
Speaker 1: really a direct correlation between like the next year's performance either,
Speaker 1: Like every everyone remembers that because it's the last thing
Speaker 1: that they remember seeing from like a picture or a hitter, like, oh,
Speaker 1: this guy had a great second half, right, it's probably
Speaker 1: gonna carry over. Like No, I actually think that there's
Speaker 1: been studies done and that confirmed that there's really no
Speaker 1: correlation between the thing, you know, second half performance, unless
Speaker 1: unless there's something tangible that's being done right, like like
Speaker 1: like a picture and a different pitch, Like we talked
Speaker 1: about Trevor Bauer a season and a half now, whereas okay,
Speaker 1: maybe over the second half he added a different pitch.
Speaker 1: I know. You know, something that I've read on the
Speaker 1: athletic regarding Jose Kantana was that he changed where he
Speaker 1: was standing on the rubber over his like final twelve
Speaker 1: starts and he had a three six e r A
Speaker 1: during that span. Like, these are tangible things. If if
Speaker 1: a hitter starts hitting the ball harder or lifting the
Speaker 1: ball more in the second half, like that's what you
Speaker 1: can look at. But if not, just okay, every second
Speaker 1: half is created equal and we need to just take
Speaker 1: second half performance and carried over into the next season.
Speaker 1: Like if you look at the skills for Severino over
Speaker 1: the second half, yes, he had a five five seven
Speaker 1: e r A and a four nineties slug against like
Speaker 1: he was getting crushed, but look a little bit deeper
Speaker 1: and the skills were really not all that different between
Speaker 1: the first half and the second half. In fact, is
Speaker 1: Kaper nine went up, Is walksbur nine went down? Is uh?
Speaker 1: You know his bat was three seventy nine, so like
Speaker 1: that was incredibly high, and his strand rate was six,
Speaker 1: which you know league averages like seventy. So there was
Speaker 1: a lot of unluckiness involved with Severino in the it's
Speaker 1: not all you know. I mean, he was still doing
Speaker 1: things that were on his end that we're not great,
Speaker 1: that he you know, should be remedying hopefully in the
Speaker 1: off season. But if you look at the skills, you
Speaker 1: can argue that like he was almost better or at
Speaker 1: least the same that he was in the second half. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know what are your thoughts and everything I
Speaker 1: just threw out there, Nick because this was good. I mean,
Speaker 1: I like that you focused on the fact that it's
Speaker 1: not just about second half, it's about the tangible thing
Speaker 1: and then seeing a change that we can't apply. I
Speaker 1: would say this about Sebarrino's struggles in the second half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was talking about seven starts and his fastball got
Speaker 1: lit up because the slider wasn't as effective. It did
Speaker 1: exposed the actual weakness in Saberino, which is the inconsistency
Speaker 1: of his changeup and not having that strong third option.
Speaker 1: When guys are spitting on the slider and they're not
Speaker 1: chasing out of the zone means that they can just
Speaker 1: sit in that fastball. And that's what happened when he
Speaker 1: allowed all those home runs, and that's why his Babbitt
Speaker 1: was elevated because normally those times when they need to
Speaker 1: be kept honest and not to just sit dead right
Speaker 1: on the fastball, Now they could and they just those
Speaker 1: fastballs are inside the zone. So it's really important to
Speaker 1: see that changeup take the next step, and if it does,
Speaker 1: then he's the top five picture. To me. The fact
Speaker 1: that he hasn't well, he took a major step back
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eighteen. Overall, with that changeup is
Speaker 1: the biggest area of concern. At the same time, we're
Speaker 1: gonna talked about Syndergarten, and I talked about Nola's concerns
Speaker 1: and Carrasco's concerns, and overall, I think he has the
Speaker 1: easiest path to rectifying that and making, you know, having
Speaker 1: that ceiling that we all expect him to have eventually.
Speaker 1: I know it pains you to say, Greg, but remember
Speaker 1: last off season when Severino was actually working with Pedro
Speaker 1: Martinez to work on that changeup. I think he's got
Speaker 1: to do that again, hopefully hopefully or but because I
Speaker 1: know that that was something that he was legitimately consciously
Speaker 1: working on between the at that point twenties sixteen and
Speaker 1: seventeen offseason, I believe it was where he was like
Speaker 1: working with Pedro Martinez on that changeup, and then he
Speaker 1: came out and he broke outen obviously, so we kind
Speaker 1: of gotta get back to there where he's gotta he's
Speaker 1: gotta focus on working on that pitch with the changeup,
Speaker 1: because you know, as I've talked about insistently, you know,
Speaker 1: if you're a starting pitcher and you only rely on
Speaker 1: two pitches, I mean those pitches that are really really
Speaker 1: damn good um or else that's when you end up
Speaker 1: turning into a reliever, right, And that's kind of like
Speaker 1: the route that Saverna was what's going down because they thought,
Speaker 1: all right, maybe he won't be able to develop that
Speaker 1: third pitch. He's got to continue to work on developing
Speaker 1: that third pitch. That's that's really what it comes down
Speaker 1: to in the consistency which Nick spoke, and not to
Speaker 1: be pitches. Sure, I'm sure that I agree, um as
Speaker 1: well Syndergards in this tier. He's spoken a little bit
Speaker 1: about why Syndergard in this tiar would you mind elaborating
Speaker 1: what he could do kind of make the job this year? Sure? Um?
Speaker 1: So this one is really interesting. Um. The pitcher List
Speaker 1: community is huge on Aaron Nola, who I'm a lot
Speaker 1: of guys are very vocal about it. And when I
Speaker 1: put out my rankings, actually, well, I am hold on,
Speaker 1: I have been for years. We have lived every day
Speaker 1: like it's in the little day all right now. I
Speaker 1: told them that they would be upset at one of
Speaker 1: the rankings and that would be synder guard O r
Speaker 1: Nola in it. And it's brought along a long conversation
Speaker 1: inside the discord, which is fascinating, and at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, the reasoning is I expect Syndergarden to
Speaker 1: improve this year. And I put these out at the
Speaker 1: beginning of February suggesting that Syndergard was what Jacob or
Speaker 1: Grom did with fourcing fastballs, that it's elevating them and
Speaker 1: move away from the sinker that is crating this babb
Speaker 1: up issue for him. I wrote about it last year
Speaker 1: at fan Graphs about the big flaw in in no
Speaker 1: Syndergard is the fact that this babbit is elevated for
Speaker 1: a reason. It's not just bad luck that he had
Speaker 1: a three five babbit. It's the fact that he's throwing.
Speaker 1: He's not pitching. He's just throwing these sinkers in the
Speaker 1: middle of the zone and guys are just slapping it
Speaker 1: easily into the outfield. It's it's not a problem for them. Surprisingly,
Speaker 1: given all of his velocity and the way you're supposed
Speaker 1: to pitch with us. He's supposed to go high and
Speaker 1: tight with a pitch and then down in a way
Speaker 1: and move around the zone with your heat, and Syndergrad
Speaker 1: hasn't done it until now. Because I expect him to
Speaker 1: go into four seem remote instead of two steamers and
Speaker 1: elevate the four seamer and what do you know, there
Speaker 1: he is on the mountain spring training and afterwards saying, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm moving away from my sinker. I'm going to be
Speaker 1: throwing a lot of four steamers elevated this year. And
Speaker 1: I cannot be more excited about this. I really think
Speaker 1: that this is the year that Syndergard breaks out. I
Speaker 1: know the injury stuff completely and that's the only hesitation
Speaker 1: I have. But here in that confirmation and a guy
Speaker 1: that legitly has thirty strikeout great upside with a low
Speaker 1: walk rates and match it with a better Mets team
Speaker 1: behind him, Now, this just screams the year I've been
Speaker 1: waiting for Noah synder Guard, and it makes me feel
Speaker 1: a little bit better about that early February ranking. I'm
Speaker 1: really pumped for Thor this year, Right, Thor making a
Speaker 1: bit of a jump like Jacob Degram did last year. Yes,
Speaker 1: Aaron Nola, but we may have an opportunity for Syndergard
Speaker 1: to be the guy we thought he was gonna be
Speaker 1: last year, Right, Like, I don't I don't think you're
Speaker 1: asking a Synderguard to make too much of a jump
Speaker 1: or ask him to do something, uh, he's ultimately never
Speaker 1: done before. But I know we're running at a time
Speaker 1: with you Nickers. Ventru will join us in an hour
Speaker 1: or two. Before I let you go, I gotta ask
Speaker 1: you about two more guys ones Walker Bueller, who seems
Speaker 1: to be in this mix with Crassco, with Syndergard, with Severina,
Speaker 1: with Nola and Bower. You haven't named him yet? How
Speaker 1: come no? I haven't. Okay, there there's there's a term
Speaker 1: I have called gerritis, which is which is about just
Speaker 1: how the Dodgers treat their rotation, sometimes in the pen
Speaker 1: and sometimes they're in the Sorgue rotation. Sometimes they're gonna
Speaker 1: be injured for a moment and then come back. And
Speaker 1: they're also going to not to let their young pictures
Speaker 1: go Awhile, I know the argument about about Bueler is
Speaker 1: that and well, it's not a hundred thirty seven innings.
Speaker 1: It's also the postseason and the minor leagues that essentially
Speaker 1: equates about hundred seventy last year, which means that maybe
Speaker 1: he could go two hundred. I really don't expect that.
Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers are going to limit him to
Speaker 1: a multos hundred eighty and then save him for that
Speaker 1: postseason run after that um So that inherently makes me
Speaker 1: feel like he has a cap ceiling. And then on
Speaker 1: top of that, he only has eleven swing strike rate.
Speaker 1: Now that should be not totally representative of a strikeout
Speaker 1: because he is a forcing fastball guy, and generally you
Speaker 1: see guys that focus on forcing fastballs have a lower
Speaker 1: overall swinging strict rate but still get a higher strikeout. Right,
Speaker 1: then that would say just because as he essentially gets
Speaker 1: the high fastball leaden counts and that's how he gets it.
Speaker 1: I don't love that he doesn't have this unreal breaking
Speaker 1: ball on top of the fourth seamer, but I love
Speaker 1: his stuff. I think that he's He's going to be
Speaker 1: a very good picture for you. It's just the I
Speaker 1: see that capped upside in innings and I don't really
Speaker 1: think he can take that leap to strike out rate
Speaker 1: I think is maybe slightly high, but he should be
Speaker 1: very good. I have him at I guess now it's
Speaker 1: thirteen uh in my ranks, Frank, I guess your walker
Speaker 1: Bueler comments on the other side, and we're losing Nick
Speaker 1: A bad time to tell Nick that I drafted Walker
Speaker 1: Bueler over Syindergarten, the Great Fantasy BA probably knew that,
Speaker 1: already knew that, Frank, don't worry. One more Dodger to
Speaker 1: ask you about. And that's Clayton Kershaw, who just continues
Speaker 1: to drop and drop and drop, and good for good reason. Right,
Speaker 1: he's just not healthy. What at what point do you
Speaker 1: take Clayton Kersha? What point you can cause Martinez too?
Speaker 1: I guess this is the this is the thing that
Speaker 1: I feel like, Okay, surprised. I need to say, you
Speaker 1: can do whatever you want to your own team, and
Speaker 1: you just don't need to bring that juju around like
Speaker 1: you can win your league without feeling like you need
Speaker 1: to get the possible value that Kershaw would bring. So
Speaker 1: for me, I'm just I guess until he gets like
Speaker 1: the forty starters or maybe am I really going onto
Speaker 1: Kershaw when I start? You know, if if I if
Speaker 1: I feel really comfortable with my staff and I feel
Speaker 1: like I got two or three excellent starters that I
Speaker 1: have such a high floor with, fine, yeah, sure I'll
Speaker 1: go after Kershaw and really seal the deal maybe with that,
Speaker 1: but I'm just not touching it. I think there are
Speaker 1: a lot of people that are taking chances when they
Speaker 1: don't need to. With Kershaw once again, and it's Nick
Speaker 1: Pollock at picture List. Nick tell everybody all the great
Speaker 1: stuff and can get a picture list. Yeah. We do
Speaker 1: daily roundups of every starting picture and every hitting performance
Speaker 1: you should know about from the day before during the
Speaker 1: regular season. Obviously follows the twitter at picture lists for
Speaker 1: a ton of pitching gifts, the Nasti's gifts every single day,
Speaker 1: uh and Nasty's pictures from the day before. Join us
Speaker 1: on Patreon, Patreon dot com slash picture lists, Join our discord,
Speaker 1: the best community out there. There you go, It's Nick
Speaker 1: Paul come back to you man. This is when I'm blasts,
Speaker 1: all right. Our number two up next the Closer joins us.
Speaker 1: Stick around four for your BFFs right after this