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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Tuesday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolt,

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Speaker 1: with you every single morning year thanks to Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com our offer from betmgm the ten dollars bet to

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Speaker 1: a one hundred and fifty dollars promo co Juice one

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Speaker 1: fifty for new accounts with bet mgm or be bemgmscuse

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Speaker 1: me dot com. Always being brought to you by your

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Speaker 1: great friends at Betting Pros on their YouTube channel for

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Speaker 1: the video and wherever you get your audio podcasts. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we started off well. Yesterday we get the Western

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Speaker 1: Michigan easy walk minus seven. They blow out Nevada. You

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Speaker 1: had to feel for Nevada, right. They kicked off at

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Speaker 1: eight thirty Pacific time, the kids were asleep. They were

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Speaker 1: down seventeen to three, like in two seconds. Western can

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Speaker 1: score and the Mac had been bad, so they were

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Speaker 1: playing for some conference pride. But then no Carson Strong

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Speaker 1: and five wide outs opted out and their coach quit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like kind of a perfect storm there for

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Speaker 1: Western Michigan. I couldn't understand why people were making cases

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Speaker 1: for Nevada, and I'm like, well, the Broncos run defense stinks.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, so they'll score a little bit. And

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Speaker 1: they did score a little bit on the ground. All

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Speaker 1: the big plays, all the big pass plays, everything went

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Speaker 1: the Broncos way, and they walked to a very easy victory.

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Speaker 1: Only fans for Western Michigan were there in Detroit. Nobody

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Speaker 1: from Nevada was making that trek to get all maybe

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Speaker 1: friends and family. But that was a good win. So

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Speaker 1: we started off up half a unit and we're like, okay,

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Speaker 1: this is good. And then everything fell apart. Alvin Kamara

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Speaker 1: goes two and a half yards under the rushing prop.

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Speaker 1: We bet of over fifty four and a half and

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Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara finished with I believe like fifteen receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: We played over twenty four and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Alvin Kamara is healthy. He had numerous opportunities to

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Speaker 1: bounce runs to the outside, like if you go back

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Speaker 1: and watch that film. I went back and watched a

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Speaker 1: bunch of the first half runs. He had plenty of

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Speaker 1: opportunities to run, and he just ran straight into the

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Speaker 1: line like he was trying to get tackled. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he is healthy, or if he's not healthy. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't want to be there anymore. Like he's just done.

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Speaker 1: He's had it with this season. He wants to be

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Speaker 1: done because it was weird. And then he had like

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Speaker 1: one very ferocious run on third and like twenty five

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Speaker 1: where he got up to the fifty two yard mark,

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Speaker 1: and then he had one more catch where if he

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Speaker 1: had caught the ball, bad throw by ian Book. But

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Speaker 1: if he had caught the ball, he had about thirty

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Speaker 1: yards to run and we would have gotten the passing props.

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Speaker 1: So both those props missed, so that wiped out the

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Speaker 1: Western Michigan. That then it all came down to the teaser.

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Speaker 1: We were right to tease it up. But the under

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Speaker 1: was the right play, even at thirty six thirty seven,

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Speaker 1: the under was the right play. No offense to speak

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Speaker 1: of whatsoever, just horrible offense by Ian Book. I was

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Speaker 1: way wrong. And frankly, Sean Payton did him no favors.

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Speaker 1: I don't really stand if you've got a quarterback who

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Speaker 1: is athletic and he can run the ball. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there weren't any real design runs for him. There weren't

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Speaker 1: any option runs for him. There weren't any like easy

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Speaker 1: simple throws. No screen passes to Alvin Kamara, Like, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what the I don't get what Sean Payton's

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Speaker 1: game plan was to let him drop back and throw

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Speaker 1: the ball forty times. Do you think he's gonna win?

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Speaker 1: Like his second pass or was his first pass get tipped,

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Speaker 1: deflected or turned for a pick six? So I thought

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Speaker 1: we'd lose the bet based on the pick six, but

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Speaker 1: then everything just kind of fell apart. So easy win

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Speaker 1: for the Dolphins, who have now won seven straight, who

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Speaker 1: are the hottest team in the NFL. Give Brian Flores

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Speaker 1: a ton of credit. I still don't like Tua and

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Speaker 1: the Saints defense I thought played really hard until the

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Speaker 1: offense kind of broke their back. But the Saints are

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Speaker 1: not going to win more than nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: so that was a double whammy for us there. So

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Speaker 1: that's going to be a loss on the over nine

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Speaker 1: and a half win total we bet for the Saints,

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Speaker 1: which kind of stinks. There's are loss. It might be

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Speaker 1: our only loss. The Falcons need to win one more

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Speaker 1: game ify and we need only one more win for

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. If the Steelers go under, we'll go four

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Speaker 1: and two on the NFL futures and it will be

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Speaker 1: a profitable bet if the if the Falcons win two games,

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Speaker 1: will go five and one and it will be really profitable.

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Speaker 1: So we're already three and oh sitting there right now

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Speaker 1: and then so the Steelers will be four. Falcons could

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Speaker 1: be five. But the Saints unfortunately will not go over

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Speaker 1: nine and a half wins. So that's a Now. With

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Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints to go over, they would have

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Speaker 1: gotten there there were five and two if Jamie Jameis

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Speaker 1: Winston's stays healthy. I am one hundred percent positive that

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Speaker 1: the Saints get there. They get the ten wins, but

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Speaker 1: too many injuries, COVID and everything else, just just to mess.

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Speaker 1: They needed to win out to get to ten. If

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Speaker 1: they went out, they would have made the playoffs. But

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Speaker 1: thank goodness, that team should not make the playoffs. Like, no,

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Speaker 1: not good. So down one point one units on the day,

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Speaker 1: not great. Losing the winning streak for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

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Speaker 1: It comes to an end. So the four day run ends,

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Speaker 1: we end up with a loss, and we're back here

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Speaker 1: on a Tuesday. Okay, I'm not touching the NBA. I

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Speaker 1: might bet NBA player props maybe if I do I'll

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Speaker 1: add it in the Discord channel like always, bettingpros dot Com,

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Speaker 1: slash chat, or the link underneath me here on YouTube

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Speaker 1: like always. So I might put a couple of NBA

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Speaker 1: player props in there before tip off, but like literally

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Speaker 1: right before tip off. I do have two Bowl bets,

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Speaker 1: and again I'm betting half a unit on these Bowl

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Speaker 1: games because of the COVID outs and what happens and

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Speaker 1: players who we think are going to be in there

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Speaker 1: who are not going to be in there. But two,

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Speaker 1: there's four games tomorrow. Let's start with the First Responders

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Speaker 1: Bowl in Dallas, Texas. It's a three point fifteen Eastern

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Speaker 1: time kick between air Force and Louisville. If you remember

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Speaker 1: the first college football bet we made this year, it

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Speaker 1: was Ole Miss against Louisville. One of the last bowl

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Speaker 1: bets of the year will be air Force over Louisville.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the one point here, but if you

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Speaker 1: want to go straight money line, I don't mind it.

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Speaker 1: So let's get into this a little bit. Air Force

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Speaker 1: is seven to four and one against the number this season.

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Speaker 1: Louisville is six and six. Air Force is seven six

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Speaker 1: to three and one over the last ten Louisville is

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Speaker 1: six and four two to two and one for air

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Speaker 1: Force against the number two and three for Louisville. But

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Speaker 1: when the numbers start to get broken down, this is

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Speaker 1: where I really like air Force's offense up against this

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Speaker 1: Louisville defense, which I do not like. Louisville defense giving

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Speaker 1: up twenty nine points per game. If you remember I

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Speaker 1: gashed earlier in the year against ole Miss, this is

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Speaker 1: not an ole Miss type of offense. But air Force

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Speaker 1: scores thirty points per game. Air Force runs the ball

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Speaker 1: five point two yards per run, and they have three

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight yards per game on the ground.

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Speaker 1: That's number one in the nation. They run the ball

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Speaker 1: sixty four times a game. Okay, Louisville gives up one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty three yards on the ground at seventy third.

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Speaker 1: And it's basically gonna come down to if Malie Cunningham,

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Speaker 1: their quarterback, can just be all worldly and do everything. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Louisville can win this game. He'll be the best athlete

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Speaker 1: on the field. But I think air Force. I love

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Speaker 1: taking military academies in bowl games. We took Army, they won,

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Speaker 1: but didn't cover. This is now a dog for air Force.

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Speaker 1: We're taking them at plus one here, and I just

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Speaker 1: think this team has a chance to pound in a

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Speaker 1: bowl game. And it's not fun playing triple option teams

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Speaker 1: in the bowl in bowl games. It's just not. Okay.

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Speaker 1: They're hard, they're disciplined, they're difficult to handle. You have

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Speaker 1: to play your right schemes. Sure, Louisville will have better athletes,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna take the number one running tach attack

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Speaker 1: in the country here. I'm gonna take a team that's

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Speaker 1: really good on third down. I'm gonna take a gay

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Speaker 1: a team that's really good on fourth down. Air Force

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Speaker 1: converts seventy five percent of the time on fourth down

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Speaker 1: this year. They score eighty percent of the time in

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Speaker 1: the zone. In Louisville gives up scores in the red

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Speaker 1: zone eighty nine percent of the time. When air Force

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Speaker 1: gets to the red zone, they're scoring. Now, look, Louisville

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Speaker 1: scores thirty two points per game. But air Force's defense

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Speaker 1: has been good enough. Now their record, and you can

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Speaker 1: take all my who they play, but only give up

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Speaker 1: nineteen point five points per game, Okay, nineteen point five

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Speaker 1: points per game defensively, it's you know, it's they're better

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Speaker 1: than people think. They're nine and three. Okay, I get it.

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Speaker 1: You look at their Their schedule is not great. Utah State, Wyoming,

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Speaker 1: Boise State, San Diego State, Army, Nevada, UNLV, I get

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Speaker 1: all that, Okay, but man, the acc Louisville records not

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Speaker 1: exactly a world be either either, you know. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: lost to Clemson by six, that's impressive. They lost by

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Speaker 1: what thirty one points to Kentucky in their last home game.

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Speaker 1: They beat Duke. Okay, it's got a bunch of points

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Speaker 1: against Duke. But I think in a bowl game setting,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a military academy half a unit air

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Speaker 1: Force plus one in the First Responders Bowl three point

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Speaker 1: fifteen kickoff there between Louisville and air Force. So for

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Speaker 1: the other half a unit, we're gonna go to the

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Speaker 1: Holiday Bowl and we're gonna go real boring and real basic.

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Speaker 1: The total for this game is sixty. Okay. You have

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Speaker 1: UCLA against NC State. You've got a team that is

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Speaker 1: seven and five. Both teams seven and five to the

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Speaker 1: over so far here on the year, four and one

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Speaker 1: to the over for UCLA over their last five. NC

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Speaker 1: State is seven and three to the over over their

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Speaker 1: last ten NC State has covered, has gone to the

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Speaker 1: over in their last three games wake Syracuse and North

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Speaker 1: Carolina sixty five, forty nine and a half and sixty

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Speaker 1: one and a half, all three of those games going over.

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Speaker 1: UCLA has gone over in four of their last five games.

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Speaker 1: Did not go over. Against Cal It was a forty

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Speaker 1: two to fourteen win. Fifty eight and a half was

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Speaker 1: the total was under by two and a half points,

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Speaker 1: but in the previous game, USC went over by twenty

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Speaker 1: eight points, Colorado went over by seven points, Utah went

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Speaker 1: over by eighty by eight excuse me, and Oregon went

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Speaker 1: over by two and a half points. Sixty two and

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Speaker 1: a half, sixty fifty seven, sixty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Ucla is a really good second half team to score

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Speaker 1: a lot of points in the second half. NC State

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Speaker 1: loves to start fast. They love putting up big points,

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Speaker 1: throwing the football. I mean, this is a fun offense.

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Speaker 1: This might be one of the more fun Bowl games

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Speaker 1: of the entire Bowl season. And NC State averages thirty

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Speaker 1: two points per game. UCLA averages thirty six point five

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Speaker 1: points per game. Chip Kelly's not going anywhere, so you

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Speaker 1: don't have that distraction to worry about. Both teams defensively

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Speaker 1: are okay, they're not great. Ucla loves to run the ball.

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Speaker 1: We need big plays in the running game from Ucla.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get big plays at NC State. In the

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Speaker 1: passing attack, we know that they throw for two hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty eight and a half yards per game. They

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Speaker 1: sling it. Ucla gives up two hundred and sixty yards

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Speaker 1: through the air per game. That's not good. On the

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Speaker 1: other side, Ucla runs the ball for two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty six yards per game. NC State's not bad, but

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Speaker 1: they still give up two hundred and seventeen yards per game.

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Speaker 1: That's not outstanding. In the running attack, six point one

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Speaker 1: yards per rush is pretty good, but UCLA averages eight

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Speaker 1: point one yards per rush. I'm gonna take Ucla to

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Speaker 1: run the football with all their running backs and get

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Speaker 1: a lot of points going here. I lean towards Ucla

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Speaker 1: to win this game, but I like over sixty more.

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Speaker 1: I just think these are the games the NC State

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Speaker 1: plays in back and forth battles veteran team in Ucla.

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Speaker 1: There it's in San Diego, so you know there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a ton of bruin fans making the drive down

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Speaker 1: for this game. It's a night game, neutral site in

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Speaker 1: San Diego, but should be a really fun atmosphere for

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Speaker 1: this Bowl game. And historically speaking, betting the over in

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Speaker 1: Holiday Bowls has just been kind of a thing, So

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Speaker 1: I think this is the right type of team to

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Speaker 1: put in there to go over sixty half a unit

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Speaker 1: over six UCLA and NC State in the Holiday Bowl.

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Speaker 1: All right, those are my two plays for today. Again,

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Speaker 1: player props potentially in the NBA in out COVID whatnot.

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Speaker 1: Maybe if I do it, it'll be in the Discord channel.

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Speaker 1: But it's a Tuesday and we're heading towards the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: which I hope we get to pit the playoffs. Man,

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Speaker 1: I really do got a big betting weekend. We got Saturday, Sunday,

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Speaker 1: got big games to get into. So Tuesday Wednesday I

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Speaker 1: do tend to go light. So just two bets for you,

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Speaker 1: First Responders Bowl. We're going Air Force plus one. Holiday Bowl.

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Speaker 1: We're going over sixty both for half a unit. Mine's

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolz. To follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning it's the Dili Juice Podcast, always

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by betmgm,