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Speaker 1: Buy from the Bloomberg interactor Berger's studios. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break for Tuesday, January seventeenth. Coming up this hour,

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Speaker 1: the world's biggest names in business are at the World

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Speaker 1: Economic Forum in Davos. We are there with the latest

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Speaker 1: Big Bang earnings continue with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 1: Trade between the US and China is on track to

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Speaker 1: break records, and China's population shrinks for the first time

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Speaker 1: since the sixties. I'll speaker McCarthy admits he always had

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Speaker 1: questions about Congressman Santos's resume, and plus, Ukrainian civilians are

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Speaker 1: dead after Russia bombs apartments. Michael lare More ahead, Don

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Speaker 1: stansdown sports and overtime loss, but makes the Rangers and

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Speaker 1: Devils won, the Islanders lost, NFL plays the Cowboys beat

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Speaker 1: the Buck. That's All's training ahead on Bloomberg day Break

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg eleven three, on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine

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Speaker 1: sixties and Francisco Sirius Exam one nine team, and around

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Speaker 1: the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm

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Speaker 1: Cameron Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Members

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Speaker 1: of the global elite are back in Davos, Switzerland, in

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Speaker 1: their regular January slot after a three year hiatus due

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Speaker 1: to the pandemic. They are there for the World Economic Forum.

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Speaker 1: So is Bloomberg Surveillance anchor Lisa abrambo wits. She is

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Speaker 1: covering the event for Bloomberg Radio and Television. It's amazing

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Speaker 1: to be on the ground talking with people ahead of

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Speaker 1: one of the most uncertain years that I can remember

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Speaker 1: talking to people about. I mean in terms of the

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Speaker 1: parameters of outcomes with respect to recession, not recession, inflation

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Speaker 1: declining or even picking back up. I've never seen such dispersions.

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Speaker 1: So to hear from the business leaders and the central

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Speaker 1: bankers and the heads of state from around the world

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Speaker 1: will be incredibly instructive. Bloomberg Surveillance anchor Lisa abramowits in

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Speaker 1: Davos forest this morning. You can catch more from Lisa

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Speaker 1: live at seven am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Stick with us throughout the day and the week as

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Speaker 1: we bring you conversations and events around the World Economic Forum. Well,

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Speaker 1: another major story we're following this morning, Nathan is big

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Speaker 1: bank earnings. They continue today with both Goldman Sax and

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley reporting, and we get a preview from Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Intelligence senior analyst Alison Williams. We're going to be looking

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Speaker 1: at trading. How are these banks holding up in terms

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Speaker 1: of market share after we had a little bit mixed

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Speaker 1: results last week's versus expectations, we do expect strength and

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Speaker 1: fixed dicom trading equities perhaps flatish and a sharp slide

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Speaker 1: in banking fees. How are these banks doing versus their competitors?

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Speaker 1: And then for Goldman Sachs, perhaps a little bit more strategic.

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Speaker 1: What can we learn about their strategy. Morgan Stanley will

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Speaker 1: get an update. We think it'll be tough for them

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Speaker 1: to achieve their targets in a difficult market. Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 1: Senior analyst Ellison Williams says both Morgan Stanley and Goldman

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Speaker 1: Sachs planned to report results around seven thirty am. Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Time. Turning to geopolitics now, Karen, it looks like

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Speaker 1: trade between the world's two largest economies is on track

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Speaker 1: to break records. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg Steve Rappaport,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Steve, Good morning Nathan and Karen. Despite the

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Speaker 1: tough rhetoric, trade between the US and China is strong.

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Speaker 1: US government data indicates imports and exports last year will

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Speaker 1: add up to an all time high or close to it.

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Speaker 1: Beijing also appears optimistic, with figures pointing to record trade

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Speaker 1: of around seven hundred sixty billion dollars in twenty two.

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Speaker 1: The numbers are welcome news for investors amid heated talk

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Speaker 1: of national security in Washington and concerns about the two

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Speaker 1: economic superpowers decoupling, though the data isn't adjusted for inflation,

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Speaker 1: meaning higher dollar amounts do not necessarily translate to more goods.

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Speaker 1: Shipped Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Steve, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Trade with Beijing is sent to pick up China's economy

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Speaker 1: is coming off a rather soft year. We're learning the

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Speaker 1: economy grew at the second slowest pace since the nineties seventies.

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Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis has more from

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. China is facing a challenging recovery. GDP rose

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Speaker 1: three percent, higher than the estimate of two point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: In December, Industrial output rose one point three percent from

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Speaker 1: a year ago, higher than forecast. Retail sales contracting one

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Speaker 1: point eight percent versus a predicted fall of nine percent.

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Speaker 1: Consumer confidences near record lows, and COVID infections continue to run.

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Speaker 1: But the economy is reopening big time, and that puts

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Speaker 1: this data very much in the rear view mirror in

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Brian, thanks

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Speaker 1: to one other day to point out of China this morning.

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Speaker 1: For the first time in six decades, the population is shrinking.

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Speaker 1: It's the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for

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Speaker 1: the world's second largest economy. The government said at the

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Speaker 1: end of last year, China had one point four one

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Speaker 1: billion people. That's eight hundred fifty thousand fewer than the

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Speaker 1: year before. The number of births in China was the

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Speaker 1: lowest since at least ninety Meantime, in Europe, Nathan inflation

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Speaker 1: remains front and center. UK wages are rising at a

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Speaker 1: nearly unprecedented pace. Sanfradge annual earnings excluding bonuses were six

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Speaker 1: point four percent higher in the three months through November

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Speaker 1: begin More from Bloomberry's Lizzie Burden in London. What we've

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Speaker 1: learned this morning is that wage growth was the highest

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Speaker 1: on record outside the pandemic period in the three months

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Speaker 1: to November, even though the inactivity rate on the number

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Speaker 1: of vacancies fell and the unemployment rate held study. So

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Speaker 1: what this suggests is that the jobs markets too tight

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Speaker 1: for comfort for the Bank of England. Bloomberry's Lizzie Burden says,

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Speaker 1: the Bank of England is under increasing pressure to deliver

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Speaker 1: a tenth consecutive interest rate increase next month. Back here

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Speaker 1: in the US, here in the next chapter in the

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Speaker 1: drama surrounding Elon Musk starts playing out today in San

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Speaker 1: Francisco Federal Court. Ed Baxter has the story from our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty newsroom in San Francisco. The issue was

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Speaker 1: a number of tweets in eighteen saying that he had

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Speaker 1: lined up the financing to pay for a seventy two

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Speaker 1: billion dollar buy out of Tesla. He then followed up

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Speaker 1: making its ount as if the transaction would be imminent.

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Speaker 1: It fueled a stock rally, which abruptly ended a week

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Speaker 1: later and culminated in a forty million dollar settlement with

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Speaker 1: the sec The trial will make him explain his actions

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Speaker 1: and intentions under oath. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak, thank you. In another corporate note this morning,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News has learned that Emerson Electric is planning to

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Speaker 1: reveal a takeover offer for National Instruments. The offer would

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Speaker 1: value the maker of measurements systems at around seven billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: and sources say Emerson is set to go public with

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Speaker 1: its bit of about fifty three dollars per share as

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Speaker 1: soon as today. And this is Bloomberg thank you, caring

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Speaker 1: its thirty five degrees in Central Park. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: cloudy today. Might see a few showers this afternoon on

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Speaker 1: our way in near forty five degrees, and he showers

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Speaker 1: end this evening as he head down near forty. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's take a look at some of the other stories

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Speaker 1: making news in New York and around the world with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan how

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Speaker 1: Speaker Kevin McCarry the told reporters he had his own

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Speaker 1: doubts on the qualifications of newly elected Republican representative George Santos,

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Speaker 1: who has been accused of fabricating key details of his

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Speaker 1: work history, schooling, and personal background during his campaign. I

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Speaker 1: never know about his resume or not, but I always

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Speaker 1: had a few questions about it. The speaker, while heading

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Speaker 1: to a GOP steering committee, also says he talked to

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Speaker 1: the Long Island congressman about reportedly being pretending to be

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Speaker 1: part of his chief of staff for McCarthy. McCarthy says

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Speaker 1: he did not know about the staff's claims at the time.

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Speaker 1: A special council is expected to begin its investigation this

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Speaker 1: week and to classify documents found at President Biden's Delaware

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Speaker 1: home and at a Washington office he used. The documents

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Speaker 1: date back to Biden's time as Vice president during the

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Speaker 1: Obama presidency. Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelensky says Russia's recent attack

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Speaker 1: on an apartment building in the central city of Dnipro

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Speaker 1: is a war crime. The death toll from the missile

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Speaker 1: strike is at least forty. Russia denies intentionally targeting civilians.

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Speaker 1: In Albuquerque, New Mexico, a former Republican candidate who lost

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Speaker 1: his election for a state seat in November has been

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Speaker 1: arrested police A thirty nine year old Solomon Penya is

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Speaker 1: accused of conspiring to shoot at four Democratic lawmakers homes

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Speaker 1: Albuquerque Police Deputy Commander Kyle Hartstock after the election of November,

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Speaker 1: Solomon Penya reached out and contracted someone for a amount

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Speaker 1: of cash money to commit at least two of these shootings.

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Speaker 1: Commander hat Socks says that they have evidence that Penya

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Speaker 1: himself shot at a house. An event at the National

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Speaker 1: Action Network in Harlem honored Martin Luther King Junior Day.

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Speaker 1: New York Governor Kathy Hokel was at the event. How

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Speaker 1: do you live the lessons, the teachings, the inspiration of

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Speaker 1: Dr King every single day. New York Mayor Eric Adams

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Speaker 1: and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York also spoke. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: in Fort Pierce, Florida, shooting on MLK Day left at

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Speaker 1: least eight people wounded. Global News twenty four hours a

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Speaker 1: day on here and on Bloomberg Quittank, powered by more

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Speaker 1: than journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries.

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Time

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Speaker 1: now for our Bloomberg Sports update, brought to you by

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Speaker 1: try stayed out here Good morning, John Stenshown, Good morning

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Speaker 1: the fire pretty amazing. They had been thirty years since

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Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys had won a playoff game on the road.

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Speaker 1: They played last night at Tampa Bay. They're gonna run

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Speaker 1: a play fourth and four back to throw it out

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Speaker 1: to the left all alone, caught at the two and

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Speaker 1: I'll walk in touchdown for Cede Love. How did you

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Speaker 1: not cover the second team All Pro? How Boys Radio?

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Speaker 1: That's the way the night went for the Bucks. Dallas

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Speaker 1: won thirty one to fourteen. That touchdown fast by Dak

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Speaker 1: Press got his fourth of the game. He also ran

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Speaker 1: for a score. The only negative for the Cowboys was

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Speaker 1: their here Bretton Maher. He made dubious NFL history by

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Speaker 1: missing four extra points. With Tampa Bay season over, now

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Speaker 1: begainst the questions about Tom Brady's future. Cowboys that move on.

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Speaker 1: They'll play Sunday night in San Francisco Giants and Eagles

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Speaker 1: Saturday night in Philly. Three of the four NFC teams

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Speaker 1: left are from the NFC East. M l k DA

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Speaker 1: Mattee at the Garden went over time thanks to a

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Speaker 1: thunderous game time dunked by r. J. Barrett with less

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Speaker 1: of the second ago but Toronto one an ote Jalen

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Speaker 1: Brunson just named Eastern Conference Player of the Week, but

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Speaker 1: in this one Brunson missed eighteen shots, including what would

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Speaker 1: have been a game winning three at the end. Rangers

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Speaker 1: won three one. At Columbus Devils won four three and

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Speaker 1: a shootout. At San Jose bad loss to the Islanders.

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Speaker 1: They led Washington three nothing midway through the second period,

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Speaker 1: the Capitals came back and one four three and overtime.

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Speaker 1: Year ago, Novak Djokovic went to Australia, was not allowed

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Speaker 1: to play. Still unvaccinated, but he's getting ready to play

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Speaker 1: his first round match. There was an epic match. Andy

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Speaker 1: Murray upset Matteo Barrett tiny seven six in the fifth.

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Speaker 1: John Stash Howard blue Burg Sports Okay, John, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports was brought to you by Audie. Don't let

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Speaker 1: someone else drive off in the Outie model you've always wanted.

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Speaker 1: Visit your local try state Audie dealer to get behind

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Speaker 1: the wheel of yours today, or visit Outie Offers dot

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Speaker 1: com for more information. We'll get the trading week started

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Speaker 1: next with Dennis Gartman, former publisher of the Gartment Letter.

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Speaker 1: First we look at futures and they're pointing to a

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Speaker 1: lower open. To start this holiday short and week, SMP

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Speaker 1: futures are down fourteen points, Dow futures down ninety three,

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Speaker 1: NASDAC futures are lower by fifty eight points ten. Your

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Speaker 1: treasuries down fourteen thirty seconds, the yield at three point

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Speaker 1: five nimex crudes down a third of one percent at

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Speaker 1: Barrel live from coast to coast, from New York to

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on sirius xamp,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager, as we get

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Speaker 1: you set for a holiday shortened trading week with stocks

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Speaker 1: on the back foot this morning signs that central banks

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Speaker 1: could turn more hawkish and attention on bank earnings as well.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring in Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University

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Speaker 1: of Akron Endowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of

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Speaker 1: the Gartment Letter, to get his outlook for the weeks

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Speaker 1: and months to come. Dennis, Good morning. Of course, we

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Speaker 1: got the first couple of weeks of started with games

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Speaker 1: for stocks. Now we have a bit of a pullback

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Speaker 1: in the futures this morning. Is this just a breather

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Speaker 1: or is this a sign of worse things to come?

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Speaker 1: For the first time in almost a year, I actually

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Speaker 1: turned from being overtly bearish. I turned barrish January fifth

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Speaker 1: of last year, and beginning about a week and a

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Speaker 1: half ago, I actually turned neutral to the market neutral

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Speaker 1: to slightly bullish. Let's see what happens. But the fact

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Speaker 1: that the market did not go down on the employment

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Speaker 1: numbers that came up two weeks ago, to me was

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Speaker 1: rather impressive. And I tend to follow technical circumstances UH

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Speaker 1: early on and and I saw that the nasdak on

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Speaker 1: on that day of the employment report had an outside

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Speaker 1: reversal day, a new low and then a close higher

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Speaker 1: on the day, which I've always sound to be very

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Speaker 1: impressive and something to be to pay attention to. We

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Speaker 1: we tended to to continue to trade quietly higher. H.

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Speaker 1: As I said, I've turned from being overtly bearished to

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Speaker 1: being neutral to even modestly bullish. Let's see what We'll

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Speaker 1: see what happens. But the fact that we closed higher

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Speaker 1: on on on Friday, which is archly typical, UH, that

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Speaker 1: that tends to happen before holidays, and the day after

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Speaker 1: holiday we tended to trade a tad lower. The market

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Speaker 1: is very quietly lower this morning, and if I had

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Speaker 1: to do anything today, I'd be a buyer rather than

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Speaker 1: a seller. But not not manifestly so, not hugely so,

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Speaker 1: just quietly. So what would it take to get you

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Speaker 1: to be hugely a buyer in this market? Dennis uh More,

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Speaker 1: More activity in the market, better volume coming in on

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Speaker 1: the upside, the lesser volume coming in on the downside,

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Speaker 1: which is not something that we've seen for a while.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to see them the market trade better on

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Speaker 1: bad news and and and not go down on bad news.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to see the market trade well on on

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Speaker 1: good news, which we have not seen happened too often

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Speaker 1: in the past several months. So a number of technical circumstances,

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Speaker 1: a number of fundamental circumstances, and then probably some acknowledging,

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Speaker 1: acknowledgement from the Federal Reserve Bank that they're not going

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Speaker 1: to be as as manifestly overtly tight as I thought

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Speaker 1: that they would be, perhaps not taking the overnight said

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Speaker 1: funds right beyond five h to think that the feder

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Speaker 1: will be kind of will will turn to being overtly easier.

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Speaker 1: That's that's months, if not a year, into the future.

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Speaker 1: But let's just see if the market can can trade

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Speaker 1: better on good volume trade and not go down on

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Speaker 1: on high volume. That will be impressive to me. Another

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Speaker 1: prominent bear in this market, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley,

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Speaker 1: just came out with a note this morning saying that

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Speaker 1: earnings could bring a draw down in stocks that most

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Speaker 1: investors are unprepared for. Is there further earnings downside in

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Speaker 1: this market? Do you think? I think? I think the

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Speaker 1: average investor has now been from has now begun to

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Speaker 1: believe that in earnings will be tear double uh, perhaps

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Speaker 1: not terrible, but certainly less than optimistic, less than optimal.

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Speaker 1: And that's I think a general consensus at this point.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that. I I think that earnings will

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Speaker 1: probably not surprise us on the downside, and may even

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Speaker 1: surprise us quietly on the upside. Time shall tell. But

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Speaker 1: the I think the market has digested, has has fully

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Speaker 1: discounted overtly bad earnings going forward for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the year. What does China's reopening and do for your

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Speaker 1: investment outlook? How does that affect how things could go

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Speaker 1: for the balance of the year. There's no question a

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Speaker 1: stronger opening in China would be manifestly bullish for for

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Speaker 1: equities across around the world, no question about that. We'll

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Speaker 1: see if that actually does happen. Thus far, the news

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Speaker 1: out of China is that the the opening has been

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Speaker 1: faster than anticipated, better than anticipated. The problem that China

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Speaker 1: has over the long term, however, is demographics are so

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Speaker 1: awful for China. It's a country whose population is already

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Speaker 1: beginning to decline that in the long run that's deleterious

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Speaker 1: to a bullish uh an optimistic perspective as far as

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Speaker 1: the global investment is concerned. So right now, you have

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Speaker 1: in the short term, for the next five, six six months,

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Speaker 1: a half a year, a year or so beneficial circumstances

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Speaker 1: developing in China. But over the course of the next

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Speaker 1: five years, ten years, China, I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a demonstrably less important, far less serious investment opportunity.

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Speaker 1: Demographics or something that do not turn around in the

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Speaker 1: short term, they turn around over a long twenty year

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Speaker 1: period of time, and China's demographics are deleterious for the

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Speaker 1: long term. Only about thirty seconds left, Dennis. But if

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Speaker 1: you're turning a neutral to bullish on stocks, does that

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Speaker 1: mean you're turning neutral to bearish on gold. No. I

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Speaker 1: think that the gold market continues to move from the

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Speaker 1: lower left to the upper right. Then I think that

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Speaker 1: the goal has has done well even when the news

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Speaker 1: has been manifestly bearished. For commodities, and take a look

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Speaker 1: at what's happened to wheat prices. They've gone down by half,

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Speaker 1: corn prices have fallen by a third. A live stock

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Speaker 1: prices are down, Shipping prices are down, Coude oil prices

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Speaker 1: of move sideways, natural gas prices that move downy had

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Speaker 1: gold continues to move from the lower left to the

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Speaker 1: upper right. So I've continue to be bullish of the

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Speaker 1: gold market, have been for a year and a half,

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Speaker 1: and continue to be that way. This is Bloomberg day

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