1
00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:04,120
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

2
00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,200
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

3
00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros and Bloomberg experts,

4
00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

5
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,

6
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,680
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Looking at another green day

7
00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,079
Speaker 1: on the screen today, Maybe some expectation that fiscal stimulus

8
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,560
Speaker 1: may still be on the table. Let's get the latest

9
00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 1: market musing as we do that with Barry Ridholtz, Bloomberg

10
00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,120
Speaker 1: opinion calumnists and host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio,

11
00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,080
Speaker 1: also founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ridholtz Wealth Management.

12
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,240
Speaker 1: So Barry, looking at the market over the last several days,

13
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,880
Speaker 1: better market action here this week? Perhaps some expectations that

14
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,760
Speaker 1: some fiscal stimulus will be achieved. What get your thoughts

15
00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,800
Speaker 1: on the view that perhaps the market is also discounting

16
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,400
Speaker 1: not just a Biden victory, but also perhaps maybe a

17
00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,720
Speaker 1: Democratic win in this Senate. How do you kind meld

18
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,320
Speaker 1: market action with what's going on in on the political landscape?

19
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:09,160
Speaker 1: Sure fascinating question. Um, you know you you really have to.

20
00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,720
Speaker 1: Anytime you're looking at the world of politics and investing,

21
00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 1: you have to make sure that you leave your personal

22
00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:20,840
Speaker 1: partisan preferences at the door and you're as objective as possible.

23
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:27,000
Speaker 1: I know that's really challenging. One solution to to avoiding

24
00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:31,080
Speaker 1: your biases from leading you astray is, rather than cherry

25
00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:35,080
Speaker 1: picking the pole that supports whoever you want to win,

26
00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,240
Speaker 1: you look at an average of all the polls that

27
00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,600
Speaker 1: are out there. And there are lots of different entities

28
00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,920
Speaker 1: that do that. UM five thirty eight is one to

29
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,360
Speaker 1: seventy to win gives you an average of every state pole.

30
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,640
Speaker 1: UM real clear politics is a third. So so by

31
00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 1: doing that, you end up with a rough consensus of

32
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 1: what's happening, as opposed to something that just you know,

33
00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:05,080
Speaker 1: confirms your priors is the term of art and what

34
00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,399
Speaker 1: I suspect we're beginning to see here if you look

35
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,839
Speaker 1: at the most recent average of all the polls, the

36
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 1: gap that has been pretty consistent between Vice President Biden

37
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:20,440
Speaker 1: and President Trump has really begun to widen. It started

38
00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:25,280
Speaker 1: after the presidential debate, it really expanded after the president

39
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 1: became UM positive for coronavirus. And I think the markets

40
00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 1: are starting to recognize that the potential for civil unrest,

41
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 1: but the potential for things getting out of hand if

42
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,440
Speaker 1: there is no election decision right away, and if if

43
00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 1: it's looks very close and there's all sorts of litigation

44
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 1: and turmoil, that's appearing to be less and less of

45
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 1: a probability. So very what do you do on a

46
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 1: day like today where you have the possibility potentially the

47
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,519
Speaker 1: president will be open to, you know, the sides taking

48
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,000
Speaker 1: up stimulus talks again. And then you have Nancy Pelosi

49
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 1: on TV reiterating that, you know, she doesn't want airline

50
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,520
Speaker 1: aid without a bigger package, and the airline index itself

51
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,679
Speaker 1: was like a yo yo, just on those headlines. I mean,

52
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 1: does the market have no patience to wait for an

53
00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 1: outcome anymore? Look, we're less than four weeks from the election,

54
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,920
Speaker 1: and I'm shocked that my friends on the GOP side

55
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,400
Speaker 1: do not seem to know the first law of holes.

56
00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 1: The first law of holes is when you find yourself

57
00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:35,880
Speaker 1: in a hole, for God's sake, stop digging. And this

58
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:41,520
Speaker 1: is really an astonishing thing. Look, there was every opportunity,

59
00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:47,320
Speaker 1: and we have discussed repeatedly how absolutely self defeating it

60
00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,040
Speaker 1: it has been for there not to be a stimulus

61
00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,480
Speaker 1: plan forget October. We were talking about this July, August, September,

62
00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,920
Speaker 1: and then the President hands a gift to Nancy Pelosi saying,

63
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 1: I've directed my staff to stop negotiations. That made headlines.

64
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,800
Speaker 1: That's all anybody's going to remember. Why on earth does

65
00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,400
Speaker 1: she have any incentive to negotiate? You know, Sun Sue

66
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,840
Speaker 1: tells you, when your enemy is in the process of

67
00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 1: destroying themselves, stay the heck out of his way, And

68
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,200
Speaker 1: I think that's what we're looking at. There's no reason

69
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:26,839
Speaker 1: for Nancy Pelosi degree that anything except our full list

70
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,040
Speaker 1: of of two point two trillion and everything else she wants,

71
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 1: because at this point, the whole country is going to

72
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 1: blame the President for stopping the negotiation process. He he

73
00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 1: tried to walk it back, and it doesn't seem like

74
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:44,120
Speaker 1: anybody's uh, anybody's believing it. So whatever they do isn't

75
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,719
Speaker 1: going to be spent until January. Anyway, might as well

76
00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,520
Speaker 1: wait until the Biden administration comes in and passes their

77
00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:56,320
Speaker 1: flavor of stimulus, which I expect to be enormous. Well,

78
00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:00,280
Speaker 1: how bad is that for the economy? Are you from

79
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,960
Speaker 1: a timing perspective. If you don't get relief sooner rather

80
00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,040
Speaker 1: than later, I think it's pretty bad. You're already seeing

81
00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 1: signs in the labor markets that things are starting to

82
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,680
Speaker 1: slow down. Um. You know, we discussed a couple of

83
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 1: months ago the K shaped economy. Part of the economy

84
00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,160
Speaker 1: is doing really well and lots of the parts are

85
00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:22,720
Speaker 1: doing poorly. Uh. You you just reporting that the Westchester

86
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,400
Speaker 1: County set record price um record levels for prices for houses.

87
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,320
Speaker 1: Is Uh. Well off. People are moving out of the

88
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 1: city and to the suburbs. So so the ongoing haves

89
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,799
Speaker 1: and have not is that gap is going to continue

90
00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 1: to expand. The general consensus that a lot of the

91
00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: economic recovery, a lot of the V shaped recovery that

92
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 1: we have seen from March and April through September, has

93
00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,120
Speaker 1: been driven in large part by the three trillion dollars

94
00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:59,159
Speaker 1: in emergency aid passed by Congress back and at the

95
00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,520
Speaker 1: and in March beginning of April. That is beginning to fade.

96
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 1: We already have seen the checks spent, We've already seen

97
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,120
Speaker 1: the bonus six hundred dollar unemployment level spent. People are

98
00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 1: now starting to roll off of unemployment. Uh. The eviction

99
00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:21,039
Speaker 1: moratorium has ended, this could potentially get pretty ugly over

100
00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,920
Speaker 1: the next couple of months. Again, I am perplexed as

101
00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:28,479
Speaker 1: to why this was not resolved ninety days ago, even

102
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 1: sixty days ago. The fact that we're even discussing this

103
00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:36,960
Speaker 1: today tells you how absolutely incompetent congresses all of d

104
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:41,000
Speaker 1: C just is not is not showing itself to be

105
00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:46,240
Speaker 1: remotely intelligent in these prospects, and I expect a lot

106
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,800
Speaker 1: of incumbents to pay the price. Meantime, McDonald's does better

107
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,160
Speaker 1: because large group orders are higher in the United States.

108
00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 1: In other words, you know, families are having to order

109
00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,240
Speaker 1: at McDonald's instead. Barrio Ritals. Thank you so much for

110
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:02,520
Speaker 1: joining Who's Your Stories in Business? Candidate this week Joel

111
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:09,000
Speaker 1: Greenblad of Yes Gatham Asset Management. He put up year

112
00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,640
Speaker 1: numbers for a decade. Quite an astonishing trap and interesting

113
00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,120
Speaker 1: because noted value manager too um value, but he's sort

114
00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 1: of a relative value guy and a value um with

115
00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,120
Speaker 1: a little bit of a growth flavoring, and he continues

116
00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 1: to do, uh, do pretty well. Well. I'll take it,

117
00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: as they say, a year. Thank you very much, Barrier Riddles,

118
00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,280
Speaker 1: bar your Littles of wealth management. Bary a little wealth management,

119
00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,480
Speaker 1: but also, of course Boobery opinion columnist, host of Masters

120
00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,640
Speaker 1: in Business, and so much more, a friend of this

121
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: show in particular, So Paul. The other story that I

122
00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,040
Speaker 1: just thought i'd throw out there while we have the time,

123
00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,280
Speaker 1: is that Blackstone is looking to office open an office

124
00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,160
Speaker 1: in Miami, right and higher workers in South Florida. It

125
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,840
Speaker 1: seems like that's the next place that banks and bankers

126
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 1: are moving to. Yeah, that's certainly a better tax situation

127
00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:04,240
Speaker 1: in Florida firsts the metro New York area. All right, Well,

128
00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,040
Speaker 1: we are seven months into this pandemic, and one of

129
00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:12,120
Speaker 1: the takeaways is that people are working from home. More

130
00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,240
Speaker 1: and more people are working from home than ever thought possible.

131
00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:19,080
Speaker 1: Productivity remains pretty decent, as most of the reporting that

132
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,840
Speaker 1: we're seeing. The question, though, is when and how will

133
00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:27,760
Speaker 1: workers go back to the offices. Rebecca Ray, executive vice

134
00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,320
Speaker 1: president of Human Capital at the Conference Board, joins us.

135
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,360
Speaker 1: They had a pretty interesting survey about this issue. Let's

136
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 1: get some of the results. Rebecca, thanks so much for

137
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 1: joining us here. What did your survey show you about

138
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 1: employees and their willingness and eagerness to return to the office. Well,

139
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,280
Speaker 1: thank you, Paul, it's a it's a pleasure to be

140
00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 1: with you. And this is the follow up surveys. Rembew

141
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 1: listeners will recall we had asked employers about their thoughts

142
00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,000
Speaker 1: about returning and one of the findings there was it

143
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,920
Speaker 1: less than six even bothered to survey employees and see

144
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 1: how they felt. So that's what this new survey is about,

145
00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,680
Speaker 1: and we asked them. We had about eleven hundred folks

146
00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 1: respond across the US in different industries, and they are

147
00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:16,520
Speaker 1: not in any hurry to return um with. What we

148
00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,560
Speaker 1: found was that seventeen percent of the respondents say they

149
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,560
Speaker 1: were very comfortable and in fact eager to return. But

150
00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:26,360
Speaker 1: there's another seventy percent that had some level of discomfort

151
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 1: about returning, and some were moderately comfortable, and some are

152
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 1: not comfortable at all. About of that seventy so you know,

153
00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,800
Speaker 1: they're not in any rush. And in fact, you know,

154
00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,079
Speaker 1: when we ask them about some of their concerns about

155
00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,560
Speaker 1: returning to the workplace, thirty percent indicated that they questioned

156
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,160
Speaker 1: the wisdom of returning at all, given that productivity had

157
00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,640
Speaker 1: been fairly high. Uh, and you know the discomfort that

158
00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,080
Speaker 1: that comes from seeing the number of cases on the

159
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 1: rise in many places, so um, some felt, why go back,

160
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,720
Speaker 1: It's only gonna shut down again. So it was it

161
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,800
Speaker 1: was interesting to see what their hesitations were and some

162
00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,199
Speaker 1: of their concerns not reflected in our earlier survey, because

163
00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,439
Speaker 1: that was, you know, asked of people who were in

164
00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:17,000
Speaker 1: decision making position. Rebecca, did your survey capture all levels?

165
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 1: I'm curious as to whether some people were feeling the

166
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,360
Speaker 1: pressure to go back because they felt like they might

167
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,600
Speaker 1: lose their job as they didn't show face at some point. Yes, Bunny,

168
00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:33,559
Speaker 1: we did have varying levels of respondents. We had individual

169
00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,880
Speaker 1: contributors and we had frontline managers all the way up

170
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,680
Speaker 1: through C suites and executives. And and indeed those who

171
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,679
Speaker 1: were individual contributors or frontline managers uh to the tune

172
00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,720
Speaker 1: of combined of the service so that they were uh

173
00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 1: feeling more pressure to return. And only about four percent

174
00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,680
Speaker 1: of the C suite executives who responded felt that same

175
00:10:55,760 --> 00:11:01,040
Speaker 1: level of pressure. Rebecca, was this was any regional differences

176
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 1: in your survey work. I would think that some markets

177
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,360
Speaker 1: that rely upon mass transit, like the metropolitan New York market,

178
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,680
Speaker 1: would the numbers would be even lower than maybe some

179
00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:15,040
Speaker 1: parts of the country that haven't been hit that badly. Yes,

180
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:19,920
Speaker 1: we we concentrated less on metropolitan areas. But of those

181
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,040
Speaker 1: who indicated that they had concerns about mass transit for example,

182
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:27,360
Speaker 1: that's exactly right, they were largely from metropolitan areas. Rebecca,

183
00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,400
Speaker 1: What kind of industries are in here? Are they across industries?

184
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:35,360
Speaker 1: And what are demographics? Was there differences between, say, for example,

185
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:40,440
Speaker 1: you know, women and men, or younger and older. Yes,

186
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,439
Speaker 1: we didn't look at age. We did look at gender differences,

187
00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,760
Speaker 1: and I would say that across most of the metropolitan

188
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:52,520
Speaker 1: areas there were not very many significant differences. Um. But

189
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,600
Speaker 1: between men and women, the responses were somewhat different, and

190
00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:00,440
Speaker 1: women were slightly more concerned about a few things. Um.

191
00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,080
Speaker 1: Women felt more pressured to return to the workplace, They

192
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 1: were more concerned with personally contracting a COVID nineteen if

193
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: they did return, and uh, women were less comfortable in

194
00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 1: trusting that their colleagues in the workplace would adhere to

195
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:22,000
Speaker 1: whatever the guidelines were mass wearing or you know, distancing

196
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,320
Speaker 1: and that sort of thing. So, uh that there was

197
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,319
Speaker 1: a difference between the ways in which men and women responded.

198
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:30,600
Speaker 1: So Rebecca, when you're when you were last with us,

199
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,400
Speaker 1: I was really surprised by your earlier survey work that

200
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,079
Speaker 1: showed that, you know, a lot of companies still hadn't

201
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:41,040
Speaker 1: articulated a plan for returning. Now that you've you've surveyed employees.

202
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 1: Are the employees saying they're getting decent messaging, or they're

203
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:47,440
Speaker 1: or they're getting some guidance. Are they still a little

204
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,360
Speaker 1: bit in the dark. No, expect It was pretty consistent.

205
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,480
Speaker 1: So in the earlier survey when we asked, you know,

206
00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:58,320
Speaker 1: executives about their plans, thirty five says they didn't know

207
00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,360
Speaker 1: when they'd reopened the workplace. And so in this survey

208
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,360
Speaker 1: where we're asking employees as to what has been communicated

209
00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,200
Speaker 1: to them, thirty seven percent said it was unknown to

210
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 1: them what the plans were. And that's not not that

211
00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:16,960
Speaker 1: surprising when you think that only of the respondent's expected

212
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 1: to be back in the workplace. It can be you know,

213
00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,120
Speaker 1: there's some certainly that never left but expect to be

214
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,400
Speaker 1: back in the workplace by year end, And there's another

215
00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:27,880
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent who think it's going to be sometime

216
00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:33,280
Speaker 1: in or beyond. But it's so uncertain and concrete plans

217
00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 1: haven't been communicated, and so that's very consistent in both surveys. Yeah,

218
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,439
Speaker 1: I feel like it's really dependent on some kind of

219
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,640
Speaker 1: evidence that therapeutics works at the very least, if not

220
00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:48,440
Speaker 1: an absolute vaccine for people to be really comfortable. Rebecca,

221
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining. It's a great survey,

222
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,080
Speaker 1: and you know a great synopsis of it there. Rebecca

223
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,600
Speaker 1: Ray is the executive vice president for Human Capital at

224
00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 1: the Conference sports It leads the US Human Apple Center

225
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,280
Speaker 1: and all of the research related to that. And Paul,

226
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,199
Speaker 1: I just want to point out that the Bloomberg Consumer

227
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 1: Comfort Index fell last week to that was down from

228
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,319
Speaker 1: forty nine point three a week earlier. But the message

229
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,840
Speaker 1: here is the direction. You know, we're already below fifties,

230
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 1: so already not confident whatsoever. Confidence is decreasing, but it's

231
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,880
Speaker 1: now decreasing even more. And perhaps that has something to

232
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 1: do with initial doubless claims and all of the other

233
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,160
Speaker 1: negative data as well. Yeah, I think the pandemic trends

234
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 1: not helping at all, and that's kind of driving what

235
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,040
Speaker 1: we're seeing across the board. Yeah, it's going to be

236
00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 1: the story for some time. It is time to bring

237
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 1: in Sarah Ponzack now across asset reporter for Bloomberg and Sarah.

238
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,400
Speaker 1: You know, there's been so much stomping and starting in

239
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 1: terms of will simulas happened, ostimulus happened, President Trump shutting

240
00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 1: it down, President Trump opening the door again. You would

241
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 1: have thought that it would move the bond market a

242
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 1: little bit. But ever since we got that one big

243
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 1: move the other day, we haven't really seen much else.

244
00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,720
Speaker 1: Why not, right, we have seen you'll kind of be

245
00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,400
Speaker 1: stubborn after they did rise to the high or end

246
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,240
Speaker 1: of that range that you look at the tenure right

247
00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 1: now trading around seventy seven basic points after reaching close

248
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 1: to eighty basic point. At the same time, you look

249
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 1: at the thirty year, and many investors are really looking

250
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 1: at the thirty year because as you move out further

251
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 1: on the yield curve, you don't see as much suppression

252
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,440
Speaker 1: due to the Fed's actions. So many investors are watching

253
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 1: that thirty year yield to take any hen see what

254
00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 1: the market is pricing in in terms of inflation growth.

255
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,000
Speaker 1: Of course, of course those are both derivatives of any

256
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,800
Speaker 1: extra fiscal stimulus, and that thirty year just continues to

257
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,960
Speaker 1: play around. It's two hundred day moving average. So we

258
00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 1: haven't been able to punch through UH quite forcefully. But

259
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,080
Speaker 1: still we do see bond yields trading at the higher

260
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 1: end of their range. And why not, Well, yes, fiscal

261
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 1: stimulus would be very much appreciated UH for the economy.

262
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 1: It might usher, and growth might usher and inflation, but

263
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,640
Speaker 1: we still have to remember that the reason we need

264
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus, the reason we are in these straits right

265
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 1: now is because of COVID nineteen, is because of the

266
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 1: trajectory of the virus, and they're just remains to be

267
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,040
Speaker 1: this uncertainty. There's continues to be this uncertainty surrounding the

268
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,000
Speaker 1: trajectory of the virus, especially as we head into the winter.

269
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,240
Speaker 1: What is that going to be for businesses? So there's

270
00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 1: just this uncertainty still, and it's really difficult for bondils

271
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,960
Speaker 1: to punch much higher when we have this huge cloud

272
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 1: hanging over the economy. And despite that huge cloud, Sarah,

273
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 1: we continue to see the stock market trade quite well,

274
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: quite healthily, near all time highs. And one of the

275
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 1: drivers has been big technology and one of the big

276
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 1: text stories is the cloud. And we saw that again

277
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,840
Speaker 1: today IBM spinning off a business, so they can presumably

278
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 1: focus more on their cloud business. You wrote a great

279
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 1: article for Bloomberg News talking about the cloud business. I

280
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 1: p O s like Snowflake. How concerning should it be

281
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 1: that some of these names that you know, like Snowflake,

282
00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 1: I Pod, A D twenties and not trading at two.

283
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 1: Is that speculative and is the risk their associated with

284
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 1: that part of the market. So when you see these moves,

285
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,199
Speaker 1: you can automatically look at them and say, this seems

286
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,359
Speaker 1: extremely speculative. A lot of investors I've spoken to say

287
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 1: this reminds them of the dot com days. However, there's

288
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:22,080
Speaker 1: also almost an equal amount or a healthy number of

289
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 1: investors in the space that say, look, there is reason

290
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 1: for this. This is a different time in the nineties.

291
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,880
Speaker 1: In the nineties, there was true speculation. People were making

292
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,640
Speaker 1: up metrics. There weren't many numbers that stood behind these

293
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 1: companies that were I p Ong and flying because they

294
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 1: had dot com in their name. Nowadays, you look at

295
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 1: the likes of these cloud computing stocks and yes, some

296
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 1: maybe new, some maybe young. Jay Frog, for example, is

297
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,360
Speaker 1: another one I p o the same day as Snowflake

298
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,880
Speaker 1: and took off. The profitless company However, at the same time,

299
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 1: you look at the growth trajectory here, especially after the

300
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 1: world that we've been living in the past couple of months,

301
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,879
Speaker 1: forcing people to work from home, forcing some children to

302
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:09,639
Speaker 1: do online schooling from home, and cloud services really enable

303
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,960
Speaker 1: these capabilities. So there are many investors that I spoke

304
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 1: with for this story who said, yes, you look at

305
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 1: the numbers, you look at the pops. It might be

306
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 1: reminiscent of the nineties. However it's really nowhere near there

307
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: and we are just in a different time. In fact,

308
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 1: the many saying he's a senior technology analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence.

309
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 1: He made the point that right now cloud spending is

310
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 1: only about ten percent of overall it T spending for companies.

311
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 1: So he says, there's major room for these companies to

312
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 1: expand into their valuations because there's a long runway for growth,

313
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,639
Speaker 1: we get earnings kicking off. And one of the groups

314
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 1: that people will be interested to see well banks. Obviously,

315
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,199
Speaker 1: how does this new Morgan Stanley Eden vanced News change

316
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 1: that dynamic. Well, it just shows the complications that the

317
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 1: financial industry has been dealing with. We saw earlier the

318
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: year Morgan Stanley stub up E trade. Now we have

319
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley buy eaton bands, and it shows consolidation within

320
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 1: the industry. And you have to imagine, especially with interest

321
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 1: rates so low and likely to be so low for

322
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: the future, many of these companies when it comes to

323
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 1: consumer banking and collecting that spread as it relates to

324
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 1: net interest margins, that's really difficult. You have to find

325
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,640
Speaker 1: different avenues to bring in revenue, to bring in profits.

326
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 1: So at least for Morgan Stanley, we see them going

327
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 1: after that asset management business. And when you look at

328
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 1: financials today second best performing sector. At one point, when

329
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 1: I ketched us a few moments ago, every single member

330
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 1: there's sixty four members of that index, every single one

331
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 1: was in the green. So we have seen financials head

332
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 1: higher in recent days. I'm looking over the past five days,

333
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 1: financials up more than four one of the top performing

334
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,439
Speaker 1: sectors in the SMP five hundred. Helps by increasing yields,

335
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: but at the same time, I mean, a bond yield

336
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 1: sub eight isn't isn't going to help these banks too

337
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 1: too much. Sara Panzac, thank you so much for joining us.

338
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 1: Sara Panzack is across asset reporter for Bloomberg News and

339
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,120
Speaker 1: Vannie when I was kind of surprised when I saw

340
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 1: that Morgan Stanley news. I think about the I mean,

341
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 1: the asset management business is being a very challenged business

342
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 1: in terms of feast pressure. I'm just not sure why

343
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 1: they would want to increase your investment there other than

344
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 1: you know, just that asset collection story. It's true. Well,

345
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 1: David Haven's that Imperial talks about five million dollars absolutely

346
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 1: guaranteed every year, and that part of this is going

347
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 1: for the guaranteed you know, non volatile fee income as

348
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: as low Perer transaction as it may be, rather than

349
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: just be solely dependent on these volatile markets. Yeah. Interesting. So,

350
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: but you know Sarah's mentioning, you know, James Gorman of

351
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley had been quite active here, which is really

352
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 1: interesting given that the environment we're in to see a

353
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,959
Speaker 1: CEO making you know, some pretty big bets here, uh,

354
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 1: in the in the in the marketplace that's dominated by

355
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 1: the pandemic. Time now to look at the latest COVID

356
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: nineteen therapeutics and vaccines, and as President Trump called therapeutics cures,

357
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 1: let's bring in some Fuzzale. He is senior pharmaceuticals analyst

358
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence also head of the research at Bloomberg Intelligence.

359
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 1: So quite the brief. Some is the president being disingenuous,

360
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 1: calling therapeutics and those he's received, including the general antibodies

361
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,679
Speaker 1: cures and I'm bunny, So I don't think so. I mean,

362
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, politicians always use the phrases very loosely,

363
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 1: but I think in this case for some patients, for

364
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: some patients, it could indeed be a cure. Um. At

365
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 1: the end of the day, many of the drugs that

366
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: we've developed, including cancer drugs, cure some patients, but not

367
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: all patients. And then the that's where the that's where

368
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,479
Speaker 1: the differences. We have to think about it a bit

369
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: more broadly. For that, we can't let you for runaway

370
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: thinking that as soon as they have COVID they can

371
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: get treated with this and whatever their disease or state

372
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: of disease or their own state of health, they will

373
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: be cured of it. Sam, what do we know about regeneration? Uh, well,

374
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: we know that they have they have developed many antibodies

375
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: before for other for other diseases, successful ones. We know

376
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: that they have developed a cocktail here, and they only

377
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: ever went after a cocktail of two emptibodies UM to

378
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: treat COVID and also potentially uses as a preventative. And

379
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 1: we know that they did it for ebola and that

380
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: reduced the mortality rate for ebola quite significantly too. So

381
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: that's what we know, and we know a little bit

382
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: of data from this one for COVID. It looks like

383
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 1: it's working. We just need more and more data to

384
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 1: understand how well and whom it's best for. Of course,

385
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 1: the resident also getting steroids like taxa methods don't and

386
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: more as well, probably you know others araabeutics we don't

387
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: know about either. We just got worried that Modernist said

388
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: it's not going to enforce its patents related to any

389
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: vaccines during the pandemic in an effort to not deter

390
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 1: other companies and researchers from making similar shots. Is there

391
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 1: something we need to watch out for some Will there

392
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: be any kind of problems here with patents or or

393
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: companies being particularly you know, covet as of other people's research. Um, Well, well, yeah,

394
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: I think that's a really nice gesture to make, but

395
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: I think most it would assume that most companies will

396
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: act the same way, um, and that that they won't

397
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: be you know, if if, if, if it's possible that

398
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 1: somebody is having a go at them for their patents,

399
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: or somebody else is saying that we've got patents that

400
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 1: you're infringed. I think this is a little bit of

401
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: a protective shout as well or shop as well in

402
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: terms of there are others were saying that we have

403
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: patents that you you're in you've intervened. So sorry, you've

404
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 1: you've infringed. So we have to we have to watch

405
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: out for that. But it's the right thing to do

406
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: for all the companies. So Sam with Regenera on President

407
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: Trump is saying that he will make it free for all.

408
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 1: How can he do that or how will he do that?

409
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 1: Have you seen the in evidence of that kind of

410
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: passy in the past? Um, No, not not in the

411
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: not in the US. While actually look, I don't know.

412
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: I can't tell you that that never happened. In most

413
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 1: of the rest of the world, at least in Europe,

414
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: medicines are not that expensive and and folks don't have

415
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: to put their hands in their pockets to pay for it. Um,

416
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: vaccines are always relatively cheap, even it's relative to to

417
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: high priced drugs, So you know, a hundred twenty dollars,

418
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty dollars, ten dollars, twenty dollars. Those are

419
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 1: the sorts of prices for vaccines, these therapeting antibodies one

420
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: would assume for this type of application would be like

421
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 1: a thousand or two thousand dollars a shot. So you know,

422
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 1: it's not it's only two billion if you if you

423
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: wanted to give a million people of the therapy. So

424
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: it's not like a big number compared to what they're

425
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: signing off for for all the help they're giving companies, etcetera.

426
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: And that would be assuming that the US government would

427
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: offer the company money for these shots. Some where are

428
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 1: you in relation to your forecast now for when we

429
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: will actually have a widely available vaccine? Yeah, you know,

430
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: I like playing with words. They're vunny um widely available.

431
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: I think we have to be careful with that one.

432
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: I think initially we're gonna end up with enough doses

433
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 1: to potentially prevent or online work a cliffangers go back

434
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: for a secon. You just you clicked out for a second.

435
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: We need to hear that. But oh no, no, sorry

436
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: about that. So no, all I'm saying is that. I

437
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: think it's important to be careful with the word verbage

438
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: that we use here broadly available. I don't expect any

439
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: vaccine to be broadly available until will into one, possibly

440
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 1: even twenty twenty two. In terms of everybody getting it.

441
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 1: That's a big, big or tool order. So, Sam, how

442
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: how will that actually happen? I mean is this could

443
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 1: be a whole bunch of pharmaceutical companies coming together jointly

444
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: producing and distributing. Well, I think we're gonna have to

445
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: first week to see which vaccine looks better than another one.

446
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: So and we're going to get a whole bunch of

447
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: data by the end of the year in Q one.

448
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: We'll have quite a lot of knowledge in that timeframe,

449
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: at least in the UM in the early times of protection,

450
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: run and long term protection. So and they're all different.

451
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: So I think what you'll end up with is that

452
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: countries like UK and the US have done deals with

453
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: just about everybody to try and get access to enough doses,

454
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: waiting to see who's best. And that's why ending your

455
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 1: trial early is a bad idea. Interesting all right, Santa Celli,

456
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: Thanks again as always, Santa Celli, Senior Pharmaceutical analyst analysts

457
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: to the stars ahead of E. M. E. A research

458
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence who wears a couple of hats uh

459
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: and he joins us from somewhere in France. God only knows. Um.

460
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: So anyway, we appreciate that and interesting, Bonnie. The timetable

461
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: is a late this year, early next year uh and

462
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 1: then wide availability sometime later in according to Mr Fiselli,

463
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: So we'll have to wait and see there. Thanks for

464
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

465
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 1: to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform

466
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn,

467
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 1: and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

468
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

469
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio