1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gradosky. I 2 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: am your host and data guru, Ryan Grodski. If you 3 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: can tell by the title, thank you for being here again. 4 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: This podcast is now about three months old, and if 5 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: you're enjoying my show, please like and subscribe and give 6 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: me a five star review wherever you get to stream 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: your podcast. It really means a lot to the show. 8 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: I'm excited to announce that starting next week, we're going 9 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: to start a question answer portion to the podcast. The 10 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: last ten minutes or five minutes of every show, I'll 11 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: be taking your questions on politics, the economy, stories from 12 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: the campaign trail, who I hate in politics. I'll even 13 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: try to answer your questions on sports, but keep those 14 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: light and abbreviate it. Whatever you want to know, If 15 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: I can answer it, I will, and I'll answer my 16 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: most honest invest ability. Send your questions with the chance 17 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: for them to being answered to my podcast. Email them 18 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: to Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's plural numbers, 19 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com, and maybe I will 20 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: be answering your questions next week. Okay, now to this 21 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: week in nineteen seventy, Edwin Starr saying war, what is 22 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: it good for? Absolutely nothing? But what about a trade war? 23 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: That's the theme for this week's show. President Trump's latest 24 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: announcement of new tariffs has the markets jittering, and even 25 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: leaders in allied countries are attacking the moves. Democrats are 26 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: calling the tariff's attacks on the working people, while Republicans 27 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: are saying that it's just a negotiating tactic to get 28 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: foreign countries to remove their tariffs on American made goods. 29 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: So where is the truth within the narrative? Let's start 30 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 1: off with some data and some history. Tariffs are attacks 31 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: on imports and exports of goods, so it's worth looking 32 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: at which countries are America's largest trading partners. As of 33 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, America's largest trading partners is the European Union. 34 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 1: We do about a trillion dollars a year in trade 35 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: with them, Mexico at eight hundred and forty billion, Canada 36 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: at seven hundred and sixty two billion, China at five 37 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty two billion, and then Japan at two 38 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty eight billion. These five countries are our 39 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: largest trading partners, but the US has a negative trade 40 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: imbalance with all of them. That means we import more 41 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: than we export, and we're more dependent on them for 42 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: their product than they are for hours. In the four 43 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: countries and the European Union, which is not a country, 44 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 1: it's a collection of countries. But within these five trading partners, 45 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: our trade and balance is nearly eight hundred and thirty 46 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: five billion dollars a year, with the largest trade imbalance 47 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: coming from China at two hundred and ninety five billion. 48 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: America's trade and balance is fairly well known at this point. 49 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: We've had a long de industrialization process in many sectors 50 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: of the economy and we've become a service based economy. 51 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: I think it's pointing out that this isn't true for 52 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: all nations. The United States does run trade surpluses with 53 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: a bunch of countries like the United Kingdom, Brazil, Singapore, Australia, Columbia, 54 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 1: and Saudi Arabia. We actually have a trade surplus overall 55 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: with Latin America, and certain industries like agriculture, food, and 56 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: petroleum have an overall positive trade surplus, meaning we shit 57 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,679 Speaker 1: more products than we take in in those sectors of 58 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: the economy. The industries that we are most reliant on 59 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: the world for are computers, minerals, transportation, apparel, and electrical equipment. 60 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: Across the United States top thirty trading partners that we 61 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: run a one point one five trillion dollars a year deficit. 62 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: Now it's not like some developed nations, you know, don't 63 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 1: run trade deficits. A lot of countries have trade surpluses, 64 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: major countries like China. China runs a one trillion a 65 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: nearly one trillion dollar year trade surplus. Australia has a 66 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: about one hundred and forty billion dollars a year trade surplus. 67 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: Even New Zealand and Italy run trade surpluses. So Trump 68 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: is coming into office seeing these other countries in the 69 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: world running positive trade surpluses and saying, why don't we 70 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: have the same? It's not like that. We never did. Certainly, 71 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: the America that Donald Trump grew up in didn't experience 72 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: trade deficits for about a century. Between eighteen seventy and 73 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy I think it was nineteen seventy four, America 74 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: had a steady trade surplus, on average about one percent 75 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: of GDP per year. This all while the United States 76 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: had very strong protectionist trade policies with large tariffs lobbied 77 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: on foreign goods. Sometime in the mid nineteen seventies, America 78 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: slipt into a trade deficit, but it stayed around one 79 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: percent of GDP until the mid nineteen nineties. That's when 80 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: America's trade deficit fell to four percent of GDP. What happened, 81 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: President George HW. Bush signed the US into the North 82 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: American Free Trade Agreement, which is NAFTA. The official estimates 83 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: are that about between six hundred thousand and nine hundred 84 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: thousand US manufacturing jobs moved to Mexico to take advantage 85 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: of cheap labor and then sell those products that used 86 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: to be made in America back to Americans. And they'd say, 87 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: you know, you're making a huge deal. You're getting it 88 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 1: for a cheaper price. That's a big win for Americans, 89 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: but they were losing their jobs. Compounding this problem was 90 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: at the end of Bill Clinton's presidency, when China was 91 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: allowed to join the World Trade Organization and President George W. 92 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 1: Bush made it a permanent most Favored trading partner. At 93 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: the time, the US had an eighty four billion dollar 94 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: trade deficit with China, which ballooned to nearly four hundred 95 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: billion dollars by twenty seventeen. It is now on three 96 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: hundred billion. It was part of this post Cold War 97 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: strategy to invite China into the global economy while isolating Russia, 98 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: believing China would be end up in seeing democracy and liberalism. 99 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: And you can see how that turned out. Once China 100 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:06,799 Speaker 1: was open to the world markets, more than two point 101 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: four million manufacturing jobs headed overseas in just two years. 102 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,480 Speaker 1: About thirty percent of those loss manufacturing jobs were caused 103 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: by increased trade deficits, according to the study by the 104 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: Aggressive Policy Institute, that would eventually increase to three point 105 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: seven million lost jobs by twenty eighteen. The number of 106 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs in the US fell from nineteen million in 107 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: two thousand to twelve point six by two thousand and nine. 108 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is not what anyone would call an orthodox politician. 109 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: He's changed his mind on oppositions over and over and 110 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: over again, sometimes sometimes in the same speech several times. 111 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: But one major consistency during his life is this feeling 112 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 1: the United States and its people have been ill served 113 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: by our free trade agreements and we had to pay 114 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: yearly for them. That's the mentality Trump comes to the 115 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,119 Speaker 1: White House within today and twenty seventeen, when he almost 116 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 1: immediately started a trade war with China. In twenty eighteen, 117 00:05:55,920 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: Trump increased imports on Chinese solar panels and washing machine 118 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: and then increased steel in illumine tariffs across the entire world, 119 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 1: and America's trade deficit with China did decrease substantially, from 120 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: four hundred and eighteen billion to at three hundred and 121 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: seven billion in twenty twenty. President Biden actually kept most 122 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: of those tariffs on China and even increased them slightly, 123 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: which further reduced our trade deficit. But while our trade 124 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: deficit with China's decreased, our overall trade deficit with the 125 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: world increased by about one hundred and nineteen billion during 126 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: Trump's presidency. So while he wasn't able to reduce the 127 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 1: trade deficit, he did make good on one promise, so 128 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 1: to bring back manufacturing. Between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty. 129 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: I'm not including the COVID years because that's not the 130 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: same thing. That wouldn't be fair, the economy added four 131 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 1: hundred thousand manufacturing jobs. But all these trade wars during 132 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: the first term, they didn't lead to the higher prices 133 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: that many people fearmonger. A FactCheck dot org summary of 134 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 1: Trump's first term in office found that he had one 135 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: of the lowest inflation rates of any recent president, and paichecks, 136 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: substantially for working class Americans, rose faster than the rates 137 00:06:56,640 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: of inflation. So fast forward today, the stock market is turbuline. 138 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: A lot of people are blaming Trump's whetic around tariffs, 139 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: Many investors are nervous, and the media, who mostly Hey 140 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Republicans are basically openly rooting for a recession. 141 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: They're saying President Trump's going to destroy the economy and 142 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: increase prices on vulnerable Americans because of his tariffs. And 143 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: there's mixed signals in the market. You could basically choose 144 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: your own journey depending on your political ideology. In Trump's 145 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: favor is the fact that inflation has slowed since he 146 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: came into office. His first full month in office, if 147 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: you strip out food and energy costs, inflation is down significantly. 148 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: Mortgages are down, gas prices are at a three year low. 149 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: But working against Trump is the fact that the stock 150 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: market's down big time since he was inaugurated. The Dow 151 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: Jones is down nearly four thousand points since January twentieth. 152 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects the economy to 153 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: contract by two point four percent in the first year. 154 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: Most of the uncertainty of the market is coming from, 155 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: allegedly from a rhetoric around Trump's trade wars, which gets 156 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: us back to the beginning of the segment. Since he's 157 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: been sworn in, President Trump has issued tariffs or threatened 158 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: to issue tariffs against Canada, Mexico, Colombia, China, the European Union, 159 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: and other countries in the world that have reciprocal tariffs. 160 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 1: Democrats are blaming this and saying it's on Trump and 161 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: saying that this is a tax on the working people. 162 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: Republicans are saying, this is just a negotiating tactic and 163 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: it will all go away. Remember, most countries in the 164 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: world do have tariffs on American make goods. In the 165 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: case of Columbia, Trump used the tariffs justice, that are 166 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: the threat of tariffs justice make them take their illegal 167 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: immigrants back, And no tariffs were ever sent. And that's 168 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: where Republicans are saying, oh no, it's just a threat 169 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: to make them change their ways. But what if tariffs 170 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: aren't just a negotiating tool, but part of a broader 171 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 1: policy around the idea of reindustrializing America and scraping back 172 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: the decisions made in the nineteen nineties. Can tariffs be 173 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: used as a force of good to bring back jobs 174 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: and to sit there and get things made in America 175 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: and less dependent on our world's largest adversary you're listening 176 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: to It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodski. We'll be 177 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: right back after this message, our guest. This week's articles 178 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: are a must rate in my household. John Carty is 179 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 1: an editor at Bripebar News who writes about tariffs and 180 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: they stay the economy and says something that a lot 181 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: of people in the mainstream media do not say. John, 182 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: thank you for being out with me. 183 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me. Ron. 184 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: So, my first question, I want to ask you about 185 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: the market and Trump's tariffs. If you even listen to 186 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: any major outlet, Trump's creating instability and we may be 187 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: on the process of recession. I mean, I've heard of 188 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 1: this from people on CNN or MSNBC all the time, 189 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 1: and the Federal Bank of Atlanta has decreased GDP expectations. 190 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: You had a different take in Wipe Oart Business Digest, which, 191 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: by the way, bright Our ripe Oart Business Digest is fabulous. 192 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: It's amazing you say that any accusation that tariffs are 193 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 1: all to blame or quote laughably lazy end quote, and 194 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: what you're really seeing is selective retreat of high risk, 195 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: high valuation stocks. Can you explain that? 196 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: Yeah? So, first of all, it would it makes sense 197 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 2: for there to be a selloff in the end of 198 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 2: February beginning of March based on tariffs. Everybody knew Donald 199 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 2: Trump was bringing tariffs to the table, so and we 200 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 2: knew that. You know, maybe you didn't know he was 201 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: going to win the election, so maybe you didn't know 202 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 2: it last August. But the market did really well between 203 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 2: November and December and January. So why the sudden panic? 204 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: The tariff narrative doesn't really make sense, it is I 205 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 2: think it is a little bit and I in the 206 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 2: the bright Our Business not just piece you related to. 207 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 2: I end up with a quote from Michael Lewis's book 208 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: Liars Poker, where when clients would call up and say, like, 209 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: why is the market selling, and they had no idea 210 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 2: what it was selling, they would always blame the Arabs 211 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,199 Speaker 2: that was their go to thing. There was the Arabs 212 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: are selling, that's what's bringing it down. The best part 213 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: about that was that it was there was no way 214 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 2: to disprove right it was there. Nobody knew why the 215 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 2: market was doing anything. But also nobody knew why that 216 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 2: what Arabs, you know, made oil money, was doing with 217 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 2: its money, And so you could just say the Arabs 218 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 2: are selling and people would say, Okay, that makes sense. 219 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 2: Tariffs are the new Arabs. They are what the media 220 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 2: goes to when it wants to explain what's going on 221 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 2: in the markets. I think what's really happening are two things. 222 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 2: One is a rotation out of the stocks that were 223 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 2: really hot over the last couple of years. Now, that 224 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 2: should be expected when you have a very different government 225 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 2: coming in, right that the stocks that did well under 226 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 2: Biden should not necessarily be expected to do really well 227 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 2: under Trump. And not just under Trump, but under a 228 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 2: Republican House majority, a Republican Senate majority, and all of 229 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 2: the regulators changing hands. You would expect there to be 230 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: some change a lot of these stocks. Like I mean, people, 231 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 2: even before the election, we're starting to worry about the valuations. 232 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 2: You have these stocks where we're training get multiples to 233 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 2: earnings that were incredible, and I think what we're seeing 234 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 2: is those coming down, right, and a lot of. 235 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: Tech stocks to yes. 236 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 3: Right. 237 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 2: So that's the other part of this, right, Why would 238 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 2: these tech stocks plummet because of tariffs? That doesn't really 239 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 2: make a lot of sense. They're not the ones who 240 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 2: are going to be hit either with our tariffs or 241 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,559 Speaker 2: even with the retaliatory tariffs. So what you know, what's 242 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 2: going on there. It's a convenient narrative, but it doesn't 243 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: match the details to what the market's doing. Right. 244 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: And during Trump's first term, when he did tariffs on China, 245 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: there was a lot of stories in the mainstream media, 246 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: and I'll just to read you a few headlines. MPR 247 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: said Trump's steel tariffs on and aluminum tariffs could raise 248 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: the price of beer, candy, and cars. Market Watch said, yes, 249 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: coke will cost more under Trump's steel tariffs. CNBC said, 250 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: Campbell says tariffs will make soup cans more expensive. Fast 251 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: forward to today and you're seeing basically the same headlines, 252 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,839 Speaker 1: but in place is down and the core producer price 253 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: index for final demand last month to climb by point 254 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: one percent. So did I don't think that it did. 255 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: And maybe I'm wrong though, but I don't remember coke 256 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: and tuna and all the rest of the can foods 257 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 1: spiking and why and how is inflation actually decreasing Trump's 258 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: first full month in office? 259 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 2: Right, So you're absolutely right. All of those stories were amazing. 260 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 2: I actually it led me to track what was going 261 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 2: on with consumer prices every month throughout throughout the entire 262 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 2: first Trump administration. So I became an expert in the 263 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: way all of these inflation things work because I was 264 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 2: very curious, Look, there's all these claims going to push 265 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 2: up prices. I didn't think that would happen. Uh, And 266 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 2: it didn't. It just I mean, the price of the 267 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 2: can of coke didn't go up by very much at 268 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 2: all during the Trumpet minute. The aluminum tariffs did push 269 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 2: up the price of aluminum. I'm like, don't get me wrong, 270 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 2: Like the price of aluminum and the price of steel 271 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: went up. So why didn't cars get more expensive? Well, 272 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 2: the main reason is because they didn't give people more 273 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 2: spending power. What causes inflation is an increase in the 274 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 2: money supply. That so you have money growing faster than 275 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 2: the amount of goods out there, so that doesn't happen. 276 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: So where did the where who paid for them? Well, 277 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 2: for the steel and aluminum tariffs, I'll say it was 278 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 2: the companies like Coca Cola, They and Campbell's and Ford Motors. 279 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: They actually ate into their profits a little bit. But 280 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 2: guess what that policy was coupled with a massive corporate 281 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 2: TAXI the tax cut. So yes, they suffered a little 282 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 2: because of tariffs, but they got a much bigger boost. 283 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 2: So overall the companies were better. We actually protect our 284 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 2: feel a woman of industry, so none of the like 285 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 2: the horror stories that were going to happen. And in 286 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: the end, by the way, a lot of those outlets, 287 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 2: I remember the Washington Post actually wrote a whole article 288 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 2: about this. At the very end they finally admitted, oh yeah, 289 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 2: it turned out the tariffs didn't cose inflation. 290 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: I remember one time we were at a bar and 291 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: you said to me something to the effect of like, 292 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: there will never be like a twenty dollars can of tuna, 293 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: because no one's going to pay that. So what there 294 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: is is there's always just a limitation in the amount 295 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: of money willing to be purchase. And so because they 296 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: don't have that much money, they're not going to buy that. 297 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: They'll never charge that much, right. 298 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 2: Well, And so one way of thinking about this is 299 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 2: business has already charged as much as they can. It's 300 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 2: not like they're sitting around and being like, man, i 301 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 2: could probably charge everybody two bar dollars, but I'm not 302 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: going to unless my costs go up, Right, That's not 303 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: the way it works. They charge the maximum they can 304 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 2: to get the most sales they can make, and unless 305 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 2: something has enabled their customers to pay more, they're not 306 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 2: going to charge more they can, right, So it doesn't work. 307 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: And by the way, competition works it this way too. 308 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: So if you have a Target and a Walmart in 309 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: your town, and you put a tariff on China, right, 310 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 2: and suddenly you know, Target and Walmart are paying a 311 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 2: lot more for all the stuff on their shelves because 312 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 2: they're getting a lot of it from China. And they 313 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: raise prices. No, because if Walmart raises prices, everybody buys 314 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 2: that stuff from Target. If Target raisess prices, everybody buys 315 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 2: that stuff from Walmart. So and both of them know 316 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 2: that they're in fierce competition for market share, so they 317 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 2: actually neither of them raise their price because they know 318 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: that would give their competitor the opportunity. 319 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: And if you look at trade deficits, and I mentioned 320 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: trade up is earlier in the podcast. If you wrote 321 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: a column which was very interesting because if you, if 322 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: you listen to like more of I would guess the 323 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: you know, classic framework tiers, trade deficits are not a 324 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: bad thing because we get cheaper prices. So what does 325 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,719 Speaker 1: it matter, you know, if we outsource all of our 326 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: goods you wrote, all of our production. Rather, you wrote 327 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: in a column that trade deficits are actually responsible for 328 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: more big government. Well, explain that because it goes against 329 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: a lot of conventional thinking. And you wrote between nineteen 330 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 1: seventy four and twenty twenty four, that fifty year period, 331 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: America ranked up twenty trillion dollars in trade deficits. 332 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think people don't even have an idea of 333 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: the scale of the trade deficits that we've been running. 334 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,959 Speaker 2: First of all, the economic theorists would tell you that 335 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 2: that shouldn't even be possible, right, that trade deficits. Maybe 336 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: you'll run one one. 337 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 4: Year, but then the next year, your you know, prices 338 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 4: will adjust and you'll sell stuff to other things to 339 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 4: run fifty years of trade deficits means that something has 340 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 4: gone wrong. 341 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 2: Somebody is either taking advantage of the system or your 342 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 2: being played for the sucker, or both. And that's what's happened. 343 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 2: So to your point of how it feeds big government, 344 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 2: So one of the things that happens is when you 345 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,199 Speaker 2: have a lot of income leaking out. Remember, everybody in 346 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 2: the US's income is based on somebody else's spending. So 347 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 2: when we are spending more money on buying foreign products 348 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 2: and anybody is buying our products, incomes must be declining 349 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,199 Speaker 2: because it means that we are not spending enough to 350 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: support the level of income we have. So what happens 351 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 2: when incomes are declining, either lots of people start losing 352 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 2: their jobs, or what actually happens is the government growth. 353 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 2: The government fills in the hole created by the trade deficit. 354 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 2: This is why you've had an enormous run up in 355 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 2: budget deficits while you had an enormous run up in 356 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 2: trade deficits. They are complementary. So a lot of these 357 00:18:56,200 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 2: people consider themselves libertarians and small government advocates who would say, oh, 358 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: don't worry about the trade deficit, they're wrong. The trade 359 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 2: deficit is one of the primary causes of the growth 360 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 2: of government in the United States. It's one of the 361 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 2: reasons the government has grown so large, and it's also 362 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 2: why we can bring it down under Donald Trump, because 363 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 2: if we bring down the trade deficit, the demand for 364 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: a larger government will go away. 365 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: Well, So, during Trump's first term, the trade deficit with 366 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: China did decrease, I think one hundred billion dollars, but 367 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: trade deficits overall increased by one hundred billion dollars. So 368 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,959 Speaker 1: what was missing from the calculation the first time? And 369 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: what in your might if you were advising the president, 370 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 1: what would you say would need to be recalculating or 371 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: to overall reduce our trade deficit, not with just one 372 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 1: specific country. 373 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 2: Right well, so I would put it into its one. 374 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: We do need to reduce our trade deficit with one 375 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 2: specific country, meaning China. China is a bad actor in 376 00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 2: the world. They and we need to dress China. I 377 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 2: would like to see right now, Frankly, the Trump administration 378 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 2: is way too optimistic about our future with China. 379 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: They are I agree, I agree with you. Yes, they think. 380 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 2: We're going to work it out and China will become 381 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 2: like a nice country, you know, and well. 382 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: This is the overall philosophy American foreign policy for the 383 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: last thirty five years. It's just be nicer to China 384 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: and they they will catch up to us. 385 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 2: It's never worked. No, it's never worked. And the Trump 386 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 2: administration has a slightly different view. They don't want to 387 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 2: just be nicer, but they still think that through tariffs 388 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 2: and through diplomacy that they will change China. So this 389 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 2: is actually not just fifty years. There was a really 390 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: interesting book whose name I forget, but it was written 391 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 2: by a guy who used to be a big shot 392 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:49,479 Speaker 2: at Merrill Lynch that basically showed that for one hundred 393 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: and fifty years, this has been the Western delusion about China, 394 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 2: that we were going to trade change China. You know, 395 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 2: Christian missionaries going over there believe were going to change China. 396 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: All through our history with interactions with China, we thought, well, 397 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 2: you know, they're a brilliant, sophisticated culture. They'll see the 398 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 2: glories of the ways of the West and they will 399 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 2: come along. It turns out Chinese aren't like that at all, 400 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 2: like their ways. It's I mean, that's how they're going 401 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 2: to be right, They're going to be Chinese forever. That's wrong. So, 402 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 2: but I do think that the eventually we're going to 403 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 2: have to say that we need to cut most of 404 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 2: our trade off with China, that we cannot be economically 405 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 2: dependent on them. I don't care if they're going to 406 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 2: make the tiny little hotels for Monopoly games, fine, cool, whatever, 407 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 2: But but for anything that's important, including like stuff like 408 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 2: just household furniture, we should not be getting it from 409 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 2: China and there and there may be a little short 410 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 2: term adjustment in that where the trade deficit doesn't go 411 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 2: down but it relocates. Right, I would rather buy stuff 412 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 2: from India than buy from China. I think that's actually proper. 413 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 1: Hey, we'll be right back after this. So I was 414 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: when I was talking to a congressman US senator like 415 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 1: last week, and I just said to them, you understand 416 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,479 Speaker 1: that if the Defense Department of the Pentagon said, hey, 417 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: we're only going to buy medical equipment that is one 418 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: hundred percent made in America, well guess what, all of 419 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: our medical equipment they will relocate overnight to the United States. 420 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: Because the most lucrative thing on this planet is a 421 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 1: government contract. Everyone's dying for one. So if you said, hey, 422 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: we're only to buy aspirin from you know, America, then 423 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: we'll just start making it. Do you really agree with 424 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: that assessment or it's okay, totally. 425 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 2: Crazy that we have these things where and Asper's a 426 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 2: great example, but you could go through so many things 427 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 2: where we're actually dependent on imports for things that we 428 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 2: need for national security, and it makes no sense at all. 429 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 2: If a world war broke, we would very quickly discover 430 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,199 Speaker 2: that we're not getting that stuff from abroad anymore. You 431 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 2: know that we would be even from people who want 432 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 2: to descend it to us, right. Submarines would be sinking 433 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 2: the ships. We cannot be dependent. 434 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: Well, we had COVID and there was no baby tile 435 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: in all in America because there was a shortages, mass 436 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: shortages or there was no baby food like I mean, 437 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 1: there was issues with major major things because about and 438 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: we had Pete footagees as Secretary transportation, which is the 439 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: second worst thing next to COVID. So a lot of 440 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: Republicans in defending Trump on tariffs make the comment that 441 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: it is just a tool to you know, to basically 442 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: pressure it's a negotiating tool, just to pressure other countries. 443 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: And we saw in the case of Columbia where they 444 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: weren't taking their illegals back, so he threatened tariffs, and 445 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: then they started taking their legals back. I understand that. 446 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: But it is more than a tool. It is a 447 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 1: policy though, an economic policy. 448 00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 2: Right. 449 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,400 Speaker 1: Could you explain why it is not just a tool 450 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 1: that could actually use as a positive policy because they 451 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: always have a worse rap in the entire world. 452 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, they do. And so what I would say is 453 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 2: it's really good to look at tariffs in three different ways. 454 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 2: One is the one you were just talking about, which 455 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 2: is as diplomacy. We can use the the the world's 456 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: desire to have access to our consumer market as a tool. 457 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 2: We can say, look, if you do the things we're 458 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 2: requiring you to do, take back your illegals, help us 459 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 2: in some other issue, then you can still have access 460 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 2: to the US markets. If you're not going to help 461 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 2: us out, you're not going to get access. So that's 462 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 2: so that's the diplomacy tool. Number two I think is 463 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: creating a better trade deal for the US. So this 464 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 2: is more of I would say, like what we'll get 465 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 2: to ride it as classic protectionism, which is to say, look, 466 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 2: but it's not classic protectionism. But the rest of the 467 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 2: world runs a mercantilist against the US. Their economies depend 468 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 2: and this is true of China, but it's true of Germany. Frankly, 469 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 2: it's true for countries all over the world. Their economies 470 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 2: depend on them being able to produce more than they 471 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 2: can consume. So that would be a dumb thing to 472 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 2: do if they didn't have what Scott Besse, Treasury Secretary, 473 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 2: called the buyer of first and last resort, meaning the 474 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: United States, we're the dumping ground for the excess production 475 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 2: of the rest of the world. That they keep their 476 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 2: citizens employed, they keep their incomes up, they keep their 477 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: welfare states so lavish because they can sell stuff to us, 478 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,439 Speaker 2: what we're saying, and they won't buy it from us, 479 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 2: because then they wouldn't run this imbalance. It allows them 480 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 2: to support their their lavish social states and the way 481 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 2: they want to. 482 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know it's my have cousins and they who 483 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: live in England and they when they come to America, 484 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 1: they like load up on Twizzlers because our candy is 485 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: so expensive in the UK. They're like, no, it's like 486 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 1: twenty pounds to buy twizzlers and they're like, we have 487 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 1: then that was my first likely was like, oh, it's 488 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 1: not just you know, you just move abroad and it's 489 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 1: the same exact thing as here. They do have immense 490 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 1: tariffs on non American and we have those are favorable 491 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: products in Canada and Canada like they have their own 492 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: television system where you only have Canadian TV shows, so 493 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: they have the Canadian version of Blues Clues that only 494 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: kids could watch it with the American version and protect 495 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: their industries. Can you explain, Because I understand tariffs on 496 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 1: China and on Mexico, I don't understand them as heavily 497 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: on Canada. And I think that's where a lot of 498 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: people are having a lot of questions. Can you explain 499 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 1: why we're pushing tariffs on China? I sorry, in Canada? 500 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: And what's the end goal? 501 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 2: Yeah? So actually this is this fits in perfectly because 502 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 2: the third branch of trade, of tariffs but also of 503 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 2: trade barriers in general, is very important national security industries. 504 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 2: So the main tariff Donald Trump wants to put on 505 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 2: Canada actually as very little to do with I mean, look, 506 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 2: some of it is they treat our Gary farmers unfairly. 507 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: They they do, you know, so we would like them 508 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 2: to change that. But the main thing is we actually 509 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 2: have industries that we absolutely need to be American industries 510 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 2: steal and aluminum. Right, those are the two big metals tariffs. 511 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 2: When Trump first put those on and they apply it 512 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:27,959 Speaker 2: to Canada and Mexico, a lot of people's objection was like, well, 513 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 2: why would you need to do that, Why do we 514 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 2: need a steal industry at all? We could just buy 515 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,639 Speaker 2: all the steel we want from Canada. There are ally 516 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 2: there are our neighbor. You know, what's the big deal? 517 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,120 Speaker 2: You know, how could they be a national security threat? 518 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,920 Speaker 2: We're never going to war against Canada. That sounds really 519 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 2: plausible until you see what just happened. Right, We had 520 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 2: to dispute over other parts of trade with Canada, and 521 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,919 Speaker 2: Canada said they you know the whatever they call it, 522 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 2: the Premiere of Ontario, Right, it's the governor, right they governor. 523 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,359 Speaker 1: Yes, Yes, it's a federal system, so it's different. 524 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. But he said, look, uh, we're going to raise 525 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 2: your electricity prices and if you keep going, we'll cut 526 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 2: you off from electricity. That actually ironically proved Donald Trump's 527 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 2: points about steel and aluminum that Canada is not a 528 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 2: reliable supplier of these things. If we have a dispute, 529 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 2: they are more than willing to attempt to shape our 530 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: policy with our dependency on there. So look, Canada is 531 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 2: we Let's say we go to a war that Canada 532 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 2: doesn't support, Right, do you believe that Canada will continue 533 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 2: to supply us with steel that we use to make 534 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 2: tanks to invade a country that Canada doesn't want us to. 535 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 2: Let's go even the other way. What if we decide 536 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 2: we don't want to fight a war that Canada wants 537 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 2: to and they say, uh, you know what, since you're 538 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 2: not willing to use the steel you buy from us 539 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 2: to invade I don't know, Ukraine, wherever, Uh, We're going 540 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 2: to cut you off from steel until you adopt the 541 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 2: policy that we think you should. That they will do this, 542 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 2: And by the way, I'm not mad at them about that, right, Well. 543 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 1: It's been international interests. That makes sense. But you know what, 544 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: I just I just thought of something while you're talking, 545 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 1: and I'm looking at as we're speaking. You know, Canada, 546 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: for Canada has had one of the sharpest demographic changes 547 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: of any nation in the history of the world. Under 548 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 1: Trudeau's leadership. Trudeau has like wildly changed the demographics of 549 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: Canada in a fundamental way by opening the floodgates to 550 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: Asian immigrants. I think that your population increased by like 551 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 1: twenty five percent and like in a matter of a decade, 552 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 1: all through sheer immigration, primarily from China and from India. 553 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: And if we are ever in a conflict with those nations, 554 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: it would not I mean, they have they have a 555 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 1: Chinese Canadian leader, a prime minister. I guess maybe it 556 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: wouldn't be unforeseen that they would sit there and put 557 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 1: pressure on us not to maybe be supportive or be 558 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: you know, unsupportive, you know, in that case, because I 559 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 1: think people have very fixed opinions of what the world 560 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 1: looks like from whenever they were coming up and growing 561 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 1: up in the world. So you think that everyone in 562 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: Canada looks like the cast of Ship's Creek. But it's 563 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 1: just you know, but it's it's changing remarkably over the 564 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: course of you know, the last decade, even and I. 565 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 2: Would say even with so you're right about demographic shifts 566 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 2: could definitely change the attitude of their nation. But also 567 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 2: look nations change over time. Even without that, we fought too, 568 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 2: Like our closest ally in the world right now is 569 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 2: probably you know, the UK and Canada is you know 570 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 2: there they claim they're independent. But whatever, when when the 571 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 2: King of England wants to he gets to wear his 572 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: you know, his Canadian outfit because they're still in the Commonwealth. 573 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 2: So uh so the UK, we fought two wars against 574 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 2: the UK and you know we we fought it for 575 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 2: our independence and then they invaded us again. Right so 576 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 2: this idea that like that, well things will never change 577 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 2: is wrong. Right now, close allies with people who are 578 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 2: our bloody enemies, and we can and look and we 579 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 2: fought alongside the Soviet Union in World War Two. They 580 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 2: were are you know, they were the allies helped to 581 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 2: save Europe and now they are. Then they became our 582 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 2: enemies for a century and now weirdly enough people think 583 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 2: they are the Russia is our enemy again. But I 584 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 2: will say that the world is a changing place. Relying 585 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 2: for things that you absolutely need, you should not rely 586 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 2: on somebody who's your ally today because you do not 587 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 2: know that they will be your ally. 588 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's such it's such a good point. You know, 589 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: if you look at the life of like Winston Churchill, 590 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: he was born in Queen Victoria's you know empire. The 591 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: sun never set on and by the time that he died, 592 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 1: it was a dwindling Yeah, nation of just an island. 593 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 2: I mean, you could imagine somebody saying, very very seriously, 594 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: why do you need your own steel industry? Stalin can 595 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 2: make your steel. It's in his name. He's the man, 596 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 2: you know, like, he's the why do you need this? Right? Yeah, no, 597 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 2: we need. 598 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 1: Well, so I have one bigger kind of I think 599 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: about this all the time. So when Trump was president, 600 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 1: the first time, we brought him four hundred thousand manufacturing jobs, 601 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: but they were very He was at a very laissez 602 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: faire approach to reindustrialization. Basically, if the jobs are going 603 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 1: to Nevada or Texas, Arizona, great, as long as they're 604 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: coming stateside. President Biden when he was president, believed in 605 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: more of a place based economy through reindustrialization like the 606 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 1: chipsack or the infrastruction during Jobs Act. He wanted certain 607 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 1: jobs to go to certain places, and he was very 608 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 1: much heavily focused on having the weight of the government 609 00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 1: go to like Ohio or go to usually On. Ironically, 610 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 1: you pushed them a lot on swing states because he 611 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 1: thought that he was running for reelection before that plan 612 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 1: was reaborted. That plan was aborted. But what is your 613 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 1: opinion of a place based economies versus more of a 614 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: laissez faire approach, because I don't see how you revive 615 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: like the places that were devastated by NAFTA and the 616 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: WTL bringing in China unless you have a place based economy. 617 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 2: Well so, I think actually, inevitably in modern economies you 618 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 2: will have a place based economy. Ironically enough, Paul Krugman's 619 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 2: done a lot of work on this, which is that 620 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 2: when you have geographic concentrations of talented people who know 621 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 2: certain industries very well, it adds to it. China does 622 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 2: this all the time. China's like benefits. If you ask, 623 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 2: like Apple, why do they make stuff in China, they 624 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 2: don't say it's because it's cheaper to make in China. 625 00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,120 Speaker 2: They say it's because of the geographic concentration of people 626 00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 2: who can make iPhones in that area. What they are 627 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,359 Speaker 2: worried about is like, can we get that to happen here? 628 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 2: The question is, and I don't think I have a 629 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,839 Speaker 2: clear answer on this, is how much of that can 630 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 2: you do just through a free market? Meaning will that 631 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 2: happen inevitably? You know that you. It happened to Detroit 632 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,839 Speaker 2: more or less through a free market. There was some 633 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,359 Speaker 2: state intervention there, but meaning you know, if you were 634 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 2: going to start a new car company, you started it 635 00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,800 Speaker 2: in Detroit because that's where all the people who knew 636 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 2: how to build cars work. So I do think that 637 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 2: there is a way of doing it, maybe with less intervention. 638 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 2: On the other end, I'm not opposed to the intervention 639 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 2: if we if we need to, let's do it. The 640 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 2: thing that Biden did, and you point you pointed this 641 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,280 Speaker 2: out that bothered me was we shouldn't be doing it 642 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 2: with an eye to rewarding our favorite constituencies or trying 643 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 2: to steal the other parties constituencies, because I think it 644 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 2: doesn't work out. You end up building factories in places 645 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 2: nobody wants to go. 646 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,880 Speaker 1: No, I agree with you there. It's just a greater 647 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: idea of how do you fix places where without you know, 648 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,280 Speaker 1: I think that there's a fairy tale in people's minds 649 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: that like Arizona, just all of a sudden, everyone was like, 650 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: let's move to the desert, when in fact we were 651 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 1: putting enormous amount of our rocket business in Arizona, and 652 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 1: the federal government played a huge part in making that 653 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: state thrive. 654 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:36,160 Speaker 2: Houston, Texas. I mean, people, yeah, talk about Texas. It's 655 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:40,479 Speaker 2: if it's this giant free market state. Florida by the way, 656 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:41,280 Speaker 2: you know, I. 657 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 1: Like, yeah, Huntsville, Alabama, these places that were revived in 658 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 1: part because of the federal government. So if we're going 659 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 1: to put in this immense effort in and that's why 660 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 1: I said at the center, bringing this immense effort in, 661 00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 1: and we're going to say, hey, let's recontract it, well, okay, 662 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,799 Speaker 1: we could probably make aspirin in Youngstown, Ohio. We could 663 00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 1: probably go to these places that was devastated by NAFTA, 664 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 1: you know, a GAD and the WTO and China. So 665 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,760 Speaker 1: why not put it in places that have been utterly 666 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,839 Speaker 1: just gutted, not like by like constituencies, but by people 667 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 1: who really they're in dying towns, and unless the federal 668 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 1: government gets involved, they're only you know, eggsit out is 669 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: through fetanol or depths of despair. In some way, That's 670 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:22,719 Speaker 1: what I think about conflict. 671 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,680 Speaker 2: I think you're hitting out something really important. The other 672 00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 2: thing is there's actually excess labor in some of these places, 673 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 2: meaning look, if you try to build your aspirin factory 674 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 2: in San Francisco, nobody shows up to work at So 675 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 2: you need the aspirin factory to be in Youngstown. You 676 00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,600 Speaker 2: need the aspen factory to be in places that have 677 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 2: lost jobs, because that's actually where the opportunity to build 678 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 2: new industries is. 679 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,279 Speaker 1: All right, John, I could talk to you all day, 680 00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 1: but we do have to go where can people read 681 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: your stuff? How can they read your great tweets and 682 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 1: everything like that? Give them on your plug. 683 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the first thing to do is go subscribe 684 00:36:59,920 --> 00:37:03,319 Speaker 2: to bright Oart Business Digests. It's free. It shows up 685 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 2: in your mailbox every day you can get You can 686 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,479 Speaker 2: read it at brippart dot com slash Economy as well. 687 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 2: But you really should subscribe because uh it you know, 688 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,160 Speaker 2: like you don't even have to look for it. It 689 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 2: gets pushed to you. It's terrific and we don't spam 690 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,959 Speaker 2: you with junk. So like you get to read bripe 691 00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,560 Speaker 2: Oart Business Digest, the uh you can follow me on X. 692 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 2: I am at Carney c r n E Y got 693 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 2: to sign up early, so I got you know my. 694 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,240 Speaker 1: Name instead of the legions of other carnies. 695 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, believe me, I still get people reaching out 696 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,839 Speaker 5: to me every now and then trying. And when when 697 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 5: Mark Carney just got you know, became the uh Prime 698 00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,399 Speaker 5: Minister of Canada, people were tweeting. 699 00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 2: At me because they thought, well, he must be important 700 00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 2: enough to have it. 701 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 1: That's so funny. 702 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:51,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's me. 703 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 3: I actually woke up though when I guess it was 704 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,720 Speaker 3: Sunday morning when the when the Canadian Liberal Party had 705 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 3: made him officially the thing, and there were people like 706 00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 3: congratulating at Carney. 707 00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:06,400 Speaker 2: As a I was like, oh, last night must have 708 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,919 Speaker 2: been much weirder than I thought. Do I have to move? 709 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: That's so great, John Carney, thank you so much for 710 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,280 Speaker 1: being on the podcast. Thanks Ron, thank you for listening 711 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,799 Speaker 1: this week's episode of A Numbers Game. Please like and 712 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 1: subscribe to the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you 713 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 1: get your podcast, and send us an email for next weekend. 714 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:25,720 Speaker 1: We'll hopefully get to your question.