WEBVTT - HFE's Weinberg Still Forecasts Global Economic Downturn (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day, if Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pelot. Stocks for Laurel little changed. This update

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<v Speaker 1>brought to you by National Realty Providers of one percent

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<v Speaker 1>satisfaction guaranteed New York City Realty investments. See them at

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<v Speaker 1>n r i A dot net. Now let's head right

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<v Speaker 1>over to the first Word Breaking news desk for today's

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<v Speaker 1>afternoon call, and here's Bill Maloney. Good afternoon, Charlie. Manus

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<v Speaker 1>averages are quiet today, with the Dow currently lower by

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen points, SEPs are little changed and NAZAC is higher

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<v Speaker 1>by seven. The small cap six hundred is also a

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<v Speaker 1>little changed, and the US ten nield at one point

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<v Speaker 1>five zero percent. Seven out of tennis B sectors are lower,

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<v Speaker 1>led by lasses and energy, financials and the utilities, while

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<v Speaker 1>technology and materials led to the upside down. Transports rise

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<v Speaker 1>ten points and as a by text fall all fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>utilities drop three and the VIX is down by three

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<v Speaker 1>point four percent. Down Leaders to the downside included Disney

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<v Speaker 1>Home Depot and Boeing leaders included Intel, Visa, and Microsoft.

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<v Speaker 1>See if industry is pledged as much as fifteen percent,

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<v Speaker 1>that's Motion's two thousand and eight after earnings. First Solar

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<v Speaker 1>fell well. Harmon gained seven percent after its results, and

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<v Speaker 1>some of the names pointing after the belt tonight include

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<v Speaker 1>Monster Beverage, Geno Therapeutics, Kraft, Heinns, and Price Line. Live

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<v Speaker 1>from the first breaking news ask on Bill Maloney, Charlie

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<v Speaker 1>all right, thank you very much, Bill Maloney, and to

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<v Speaker 1>hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg Time squawk SQ

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<v Speaker 1>you a w K on your terminal. I'm Charlie Pellock.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the Bloomberg business flash. This is taking stock. The

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<v Speaker 1>Fed in focus on Bloomberg Radio Central Banks in focus.

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<v Speaker 1>As we turned to the Bank of England's Hill Mary

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<v Speaker 1>policy passes. Our Bloomberg intelligence in team in London puts

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<v Speaker 1>it a three wronged easing of monetary conditions. Will it

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<v Speaker 1>be enough? Our NEXCU says, depending on what happens with inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>Could it be a little bit too much? It's certainly

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<v Speaker 1>hit the pound hard today. Joining us now is Carl Weinberg.

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<v Speaker 1>He is chief economist Managing director for High Frequency Economics

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<v Speaker 1>So Carl, Now that you've had a little more chance

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<v Speaker 1>to read through everything that the Bank of England said

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<v Speaker 1>its statement, listen to Mark Karney, Uh, think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>How big, how important is this move by the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England today. Well, it's a really substantial program, There's

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<v Speaker 1>no doubt about that. So he very clearly saw them

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<v Speaker 1>cut down the cost of borrowing, both directly and indirectly

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<v Speaker 1>by lowering their bank rate, by setting up a program

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<v Speaker 1>to channel funds at the lowest possible cost into banks.

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<v Speaker 1>To make sure that those lower interest rates passed through

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, we saw purchases of corporate bonds and government

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<v Speaker 1>bonds announced. It just doesn't get any more comprehensive than this.

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<v Speaker 1>If they wanted to hit the we're hit the nail

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<v Speaker 1>on the head with a hammer. They certainly hit it hard.

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<v Speaker 1>Did they hit it with a sledgehammer? Does this stuff

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<v Speaker 1>actually work? Or does it just create problems that they

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<v Speaker 1>can't solve that are even bigger down the road? I

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<v Speaker 1>pim Well, you know that's the big question, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>down the road. How do we unwind all of this?

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<v Speaker 1>That's always the question. But that's not the question for today,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not the question for the next period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>When I first read the program this morning, I thought

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<v Speaker 1>maybe they had been a little bit too aggressive in

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<v Speaker 1>their forecast of marking down their economic growth prospects and

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<v Speaker 1>their inflation forecast. I thought, you know, they could have

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<v Speaker 1>been a little bit more conservative about that. But then

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<v Speaker 1>during the course of the day I've reflected on a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit, and I think that maybe this is where

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<v Speaker 1>they want to be. They would rather hit it too

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<v Speaker 1>hard and then be able to come back, then not

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<v Speaker 1>hit it enough and to be seen chasing after an

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<v Speaker 1>ever receding target. So I think that they've hit it

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<v Speaker 1>overly hard, probably on purpose, and warned us that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's more to come if necessary, but unspoken as the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that if it's not necessary, it doesn't have to

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<v Speaker 1>get any bigger than this. Well, Carl, and I guess

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<v Speaker 1>that's one of one of the analysies I've read, uh

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<v Speaker 1>following the and of course there's lots right everyone's trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure this out, is that that maybe the view

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<v Speaker 1>of the economy the Bank oftving express today lowered it

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<v Speaker 1>by a good margin but it never turns negative, was

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<v Speaker 1>too optimistic, which is one reason they'd have to maybe

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<v Speaker 1>cut more in November. But is Mark Kearney's marketing his

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<v Speaker 1>team figuring that if we are aggressive now and we

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<v Speaker 1>take all these steps, we can avoid that deep of

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<v Speaker 1>a slump in the UK economy. Is that why they

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<v Speaker 1>didn't downgrade their forecast of the economy even further. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Kathleen, I'm going to answer your question with

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<v Speaker 1>a question, and that question is who knows? All right?

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<v Speaker 1>We are in uncharted territory as far as the UK

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<v Speaker 1>economy is concerned. We don't have a recent historical precedent

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<v Speaker 1>to look back on and say, the last time a

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<v Speaker 1>country west the European Union, this is what happened. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know what the new terms of business are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be. We don't know anything about how the

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<v Speaker 1>UK economy is going to look two years from now,

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<v Speaker 1>except that it's going to be different. So the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>has staked itself out as being a bearer on the subject,

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<v Speaker 1>and this of course was very controversial during the campaign.

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<v Speaker 1>The Governor was accused of being prejudiced towards the Stay

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<v Speaker 1>side and he had to send himself in Parliament on this.

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<v Speaker 1>But he is very clearly on the view that this

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<v Speaker 1>is a hard hit to the economy, that the risks

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<v Speaker 1>are huge, and he's prepared to forecast that those risks

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<v Speaker 1>turned into realities, and that's what we saw today. So

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<v Speaker 1>this is this is where they are, and they could

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<v Speaker 1>very well be right. And I just don't know enough.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not smart enough to figure out in this uncertain

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<v Speaker 1>circumstance whether I think they're right or right. I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>along for the ride at this point, Carl, I just

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<v Speaker 1>want to push a little bit on being along for

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<v Speaker 1>this ride. I mean, as we're talking about parallel economies,

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<v Speaker 1>because when you talk about low interest rates and bond buying,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the financial economy. Revolving credit rates, they remain high.

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<v Speaker 1>Down payments for real estate have increased in your lucky

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<v Speaker 1>if you can get the mortgage at three and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent, at least in the United States, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>got sluggish wage growth in the developing in the developed world,

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<v Speaker 1>How is what they're doing actually feeding into the real economy. Yeah, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>in the specifics of the UK market right now, mortgage

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<v Speaker 1>lending has been the only lending that's been occurring. It's

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<v Speaker 1>been actually at a faster rate than they'd like to see.

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<v Speaker 1>The real estate market has been through the roof there,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've been trying to cool lending. So in a sense,

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<v Speaker 1>this is kind of a stop and start and then

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<v Speaker 1>start again policy on housing to try to keep it

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<v Speaker 1>from collapsing altogether. On their forecast, they're predicting a decline

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<v Speaker 1>in house prices. They're predicting almost no economic growth in

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<v Speaker 1>the second half of this year. This is a much

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<v Speaker 1>more severe circumstance than we've seen before, and you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to believe that if that's what that's what's actually going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. Lower interest rates certainly can't hurt and whatever

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<v Speaker 1>help they provide would be welcomers. Well, of course, you

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<v Speaker 1>just mentioned, Carl, the fact that they've got this found

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<v Speaker 1>clever corporate lending program and can talk about that more

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<v Speaker 1>in a minute. In ten seconds, though, do you see

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<v Speaker 1>another rate cut in November? Um, I'm gonna say, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. Let's go yet to see some real hard

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<v Speaker 1>data on how the economy has performed in this post

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<v Speaker 1>brexit period. Let's look at some real hard numbers and

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<v Speaker 1>then we'll make a judgment. All Right, We've got more

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<v Speaker 1>with Carl Weinberg. He is chief economist high Frequency Economics.

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<v Speaker 1>You can follow him on Twitter at c B Weinberg.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got more on the Bank of England's rate decision,

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<v Speaker 1>the European Central Bank and negative interest rates in the

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<v Speaker 1>future of the global economy. This is taking Stock. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Pim Fox, my co host Kathleen Hayes. This is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of England Governor Mark Karney said he is against

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<v Speaker 1>negative interest rates. He doesn't like the idea of helicopter money.

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<v Speaker 1>But as he decides to buy more bonds in the UK,

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<v Speaker 1>is that where he's heading. That's next on taking Stock

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<v Speaker 1>broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleven, Rio to Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg nine to the country, SIS at jam General one

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus happened.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg got gone. This is taking Stock. I'm Kathleen Hayes

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<v Speaker 1>along with him Fox. The Bank of England cutting its

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<v Speaker 1>key rate, getting ready to buy more bonds. Most of

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<v Speaker 1>the world is heading in the direction of more stimulus.

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<v Speaker 1>Can the Federal Reserve resist? And are there some signals

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<v Speaker 1>some negative signals about the entire global economy With all

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<v Speaker 1>these central banks. On the March, We're going to continue

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<v Speaker 1>our conversation with Karl Weinberger of High Frequency Economics. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go to Charlie Kellett in the Bloomberg news room

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<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg Business Flag and I thank you Phim, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you Kathleen. On mixed picture for stocks right now, little change,

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<v Speaker 1>that is the takeaway here. We've got the down industrials

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<v Speaker 1>down eleven points eighteen pounds than three hundred forty three,

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<v Speaker 1>a drop there of less than point one percent, SMP

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred index unchanged, and nastack is up seven to

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<v Speaker 1>fifty one sixty seven, a game there of two tenths

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent. Mixed corporate earnings offering little direction. Fertilizer

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<v Speaker 1>maker CF Industries seeing its steepest drop since January after

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<v Speaker 1>its results miss analyst predictions. Shares of CF they are

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<v Speaker 1>down now by twelve point three two percent. MetLife tumbling

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<v Speaker 1>nine point one percent after its quarterly profit disappointed Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England Governor Mark Carney unveiling an exceptional package of stimulus,

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<v Speaker 1>including the Bank's first interest rate cut in seven years.

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<v Speaker 1>Those policy makers slash growth forecast by the most ever

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<v Speaker 1>after Britain's decision to leave the European Union, and of

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<v Speaker 1>the news conference, Carney took questions on a number of topics,

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<v Speaker 1>including last June's Brexit vote. There is a great degree

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<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty. It's entirely understandable that there is there's uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>about the eventual model that we will have at the

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<v Speaker 1>European Union. There are number of options on the table

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<v Speaker 1>um whichever model has chosen itself will require some degree

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<v Speaker 1>of adjustment in the economy and that brings its own

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<v Speaker 1>effects on growth and uh end productivity for a period

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<v Speaker 1>of time. And whilst we gets the all important July

0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:21.960
<v Speaker 1>jobs are the August jobs numbered, July jobs number tomorrow morning.

0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.960
<v Speaker 1>Today we got jobless claims. The number of Americans filing

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<v Speaker 1>applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to a level

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<v Speaker 1>that's still under scores health in the labor market. Claims

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<v Speaker 1>up by three thousand, two hundred sixty nine thousand, ten year,

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<v Speaker 1>up eleven thirty seconds, yield one point five percent, Gold

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<v Speaker 1>up two tenths of one percent. And now let's take

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<v Speaker 1>a look at other stories making news. Thank you Charlie

0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.600
<v Speaker 1>from the Bloomberg News room. I'm Jill Schneider. This news

0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.960
<v Speaker 1>update is brought to you by Blue Jeans Enterprise Video Cloud.

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<v Speaker 1>blue Jeans dot com and click the radio Mike. Blue

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<v Speaker 1>Jeans Work Smarter, Connect Better. Some Republicans are angry with

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<v Speaker 1>presidential nominee Donald Trump for refusing to endorse how speaker

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Ryan. Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort says this should

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<v Speaker 1>not be a concern. Of course, he's going to work

0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:17.599
<v Speaker 1>with Pau Ryan. Of course he's tried to bridge the

0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.640
<v Speaker 1>party together with But Ryan is also running against somebody

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<v Speaker 1>who's not gonna win, but nonetheless is a strong supporter

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<v Speaker 1>of Mr Trump's. Meanwhile, another GOP congressman is saying he

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<v Speaker 1>is unlikely to support Donald Trump for president. Adam Kinzinger

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.120
<v Speaker 1>of Illinois says Trump is quote beginning to cross a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of red lines of the unforgivable in politics. Kinsinger

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<v Speaker 1>also says he will not support Hillary Clinton. London police

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<v Speaker 1>say a nineteen year old man is in custody after

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<v Speaker 1>a knife attack last night that left one woman dead,

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<v Speaker 1>although police say at this point there is nothing linking

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<v Speaker 1>the suspect to terrorism. This local resident says it's something

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<v Speaker 1>that's always on her mind. It's living in London, especially

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<v Speaker 1>in central London. There's always that thing, kind of thing

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<v Speaker 1>in the back of your mind, you know, you live

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 1>with terror is. Five people were also injured in the attack.

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<v Speaker 1>Dozens were arrested today in the latest crackdown on organized

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<v Speaker 1>crime by the FBI and New York City Police. The

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<v Speaker 1>suspects are reputed members of the Banano, Genovesi and Colombo

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.720
<v Speaker 1>crime families. The arrests were made in New York, Newark,

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:19.319
<v Speaker 1>New Haven, Boston and Miami. The arrests follow a multi

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<v Speaker 1>year investigation. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered

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<v Speaker 1>by more than twenty journalists and analysts in more than

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred twenty countries. I'm Jil Schneider and this is Bloomberg, Charlie,

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<v Speaker 1>and we thank you and again recapping little change for

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<v Speaker 1>US equities twenty six minutes to go ahead of the close.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got the SMP five D indecks down by less

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<v Speaker 1>than half a point. I'm Charlie Paloton Pats of Bloombird

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<v Speaker 1>Business Flash. This is taking stock the FED in focus

0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:52.319
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. We can't heer our conversation. Now. I'm

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 1>taking a look at the Bank of England, what they did,

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<v Speaker 1>what they said, and what is going to happen next.

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<v Speaker 1>Carl Weinbergger's ar guests chief economist, Managing director for High

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<v Speaker 1>Frequency Economics. You know, Carl PM was just raising the

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<v Speaker 1>question about will this work? You know you're gonna buy bonds,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it's interesting to ponder a point that

0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg intelligence team made about the bond buying, which is,

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 1>you know you're sending a signal it's going to be stimulus,

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<v Speaker 1>and that along with the bond buying getting yields down

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 1>on on borrowing costs, right and along with this targeted

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.840
<v Speaker 1>corporate bond buying program where they're really going to try

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<v Speaker 1>to funnel money to real UK businesses right that that

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to hit this whole question of the impact

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<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty, which has been a big hit to their

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 1>economy already by making sure that businesses can really get

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<v Speaker 1>money and really do stuff. Is this is this a

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<v Speaker 1>clever step by the Bank afy And do you think

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<v Speaker 1>of potentially more effective than some other things central banks

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<v Speaker 1>have done well? I think it's certainly what they hope

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<v Speaker 1>to do, Kathleen, and certainly lending to businesses has been

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<v Speaker 1>a store point. We've seen credit overall in the UK

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<v Speaker 1>go from contraction to a very tepid rate of increase

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<v Speaker 1>in the last few monthly reports, but lending the businesses

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<v Speaker 1>remains flat at best. Most of the lending has been

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<v Speaker 1>to consumers and for mortgages. So businesses do need more

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<v Speaker 1>credit and they'll need it more than ever in this

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<v Speaker 1>uncertain period in the UK, starting as they did with

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<v Speaker 1>yields a little higher than they have been recently in Europe. Uh,

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>there's certainly a case to be made that long term

0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 1>interest rates and borrowing costs and the cost of bancredit

0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:31.239
<v Speaker 1>can be made cheaper to advantage to bring the economy

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<v Speaker 1>up a little bit at a faster pace of growth.

0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:35.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, of course, ten year yields are only sixty

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<v Speaker 1>four basis points, so you can only get so much

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<v Speaker 1>out of buying, you know, more sovereign bonds and bringing

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<v Speaker 1>down the yield curve. As far as corporate bonds are concerned,

0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:48.480
<v Speaker 1>I personally have a problem with this. It doesn't stop

0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England or the ECB from doing it.

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:54.600
<v Speaker 1>But I view corporate bond purchases as more microeconomic policy

0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>and tinkering with the price of risk, rather than macroeconomic policy,

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>which is what happens when they by a sovereign bond

0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>and bring down all interest rates. But that's my problem,

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 1>not theres They clearly think that lower corporate yields relative

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>to sovereigns are going to help, and more power to them,

0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 1>Carl Weinberke. If you take a look at commodity prices,

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<v Speaker 1>corn down to about twenty one month lows, wheat hitting

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 1>a nine year low, soybeans down ten percent from June,

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 1>down from the peak, agricultural prices falling, crude trading it

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<v Speaker 1>around forty one about right now, just up about two

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 1>and a quarter percent. Are we going to experience an

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 1>economic downturn as a result of these easy money policies?

0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Okammy is stealing my my report to clients over tonight's

0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 1>report and the one that they'll be getting over the weekend.

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.880
<v Speaker 1>At High Frequency Economics, we are writing about a global

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>economic downturn. We've been writing about it for a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>and following commodity prices certainly impoverished big parts of the

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 1>world economy. I view the decline in world trade is

0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 1>being directly linked to the drop and come moodity prices,

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<v Speaker 1>which makes commodity producers poorer and means they import less

0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 1>stuff from US, which means US exports are a week

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>part of the US outlook. And we've been linking that

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 1>drop in world trade to an expected slow down impossible

0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 1>contraction of the world economy for a long time. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I track seven central banks and all of them are

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 1>now easy now have easy monetary conditions, including the FED

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 1>which is not tightening uh and including d c B

0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:32.320
<v Speaker 1>which is easing monetary conditions like MAD, the Bank of

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Japan which is using conditions like ultramad, the BIKE, the

0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Bank of Reserve, Bank of Australia, which just cut interest

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 1>rates this week, the Canadians who cut interest rates in

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<v Speaker 1>recent months. All the central banks are doing the same thing.

0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>They're going full out toward easing, and they're marking down

0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.880
<v Speaker 1>their forecast every time they do a new forecast exercise

0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.880
<v Speaker 1>to predict even slower and slower growth. I can't help

0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 1>but feel that they're telling us what we should be

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing in the world right now, which is a coordinated

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>slow down in many parts of the world economy at

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.480
<v Speaker 1>the same time, and a possible contraction in a lot

0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.479
<v Speaker 1>of places. It's not good carny chance that it's oh

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the balls now and the fiscal court of the UK,

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.679
<v Speaker 1>of the Fed of Japan, every country supposedly the fiscal

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 1>guy's got to carry the ball. Now. Is that going

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.119
<v Speaker 1>to happen? Well, the ball. That's been what the central

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>bankers have been saying for a while. We know Mario

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 1>drag said it explicitly. We know that the I m

0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 1>F is called for more fiscal stimulus. Whether it's going

0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 1>to happen or not, you know, that's a political decision.

0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 1>The economics of it, though, in my view are compelling.

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:36.919
<v Speaker 1>This is not the time for austerity. And while in

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.920
<v Speaker 1>some places like Japan, fiscal policy is misplaced. They're they're

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 1>trying to fight a demographic challenge that can't be overcome

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.399
<v Speaker 1>by any economic policy. But certainly the case of Europe,

0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:50.360
<v Speaker 1>Europe needs a kickstart, and fiscal policy is the way

0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.600
<v Speaker 1>to do it. In many countries in Europe have the

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.680
<v Speaker 1>fiscal space to make that happen. The UK has committed

0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.679
<v Speaker 1>to fiscal stimulus, that's a good side. The Canadians have

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:02.080
<v Speaker 1>committed to fiscal stimulut us. That's a good time the US.

0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:04.159
<v Speaker 1>We're not going to see any fiscal stimulus here for

0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.560
<v Speaker 1>quite a while. I'm pretty sure of that, just looking

0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 1>at the politics of UH in Washington and the prospects

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.639
<v Speaker 1>will come out of the upcoming election. UM and UH

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 1>so who's left, you know, So it's a mixed bag.

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Some people are moving in that direction. I wish we

0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.240
<v Speaker 1>would see more, but realistically, I don't think the biggest

0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:24.280
<v Speaker 1>players are going to be at the table for that game.

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 1>Carl Weinberg, thank you very much, Chief Economist high Frequency Economics.

0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:33.359
<v Speaker 1>You can follow Carl Weinberg on Twitter at c B

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>Weinberg giving us his thoughts on the Bank of England's

0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 1>rate decision and the potential turned down in the global economy.

0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Looking for fiscal stimulus, that's what Carl Weinberg says might

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 1>actually be needed. This is taking Stockheim pim Fox My

0:18:51.840 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>co host Kathleen Hayes, this is Bloomberg Central banks around

0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the world trying to boost their economies. That fed dragging

0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 1>its feet on a raid hike. But what about companies?

0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:10.080
<v Speaker 1>What about their profits? What about their earnings? Jack Rivken

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:13.119
<v Speaker 1>from Altegris coming up next on Bloomberg Radio