WEBVTT - Algo Trading Could Amplify A Correction To 10 to 15%

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.

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<v Speaker 1>Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Wicks. Each day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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<v Speaker 1>you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

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<v Speaker 1>the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. A big question in today's market,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you trade? By tweet? The question as markets

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<v Speaker 1>get Royal to buy a series of competing headlines, joining

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<v Speaker 1>us down to discuss Matt Mainly, managing director in equity

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<v Speaker 1>strategist at Miller, tay Back and Company. Matt, how do

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<v Speaker 1>you trade around? Tweets the very any Ey? That's for

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<v Speaker 1>darn sure. Uh. And it's it's, you know, they say,

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<v Speaker 1>trying to trade around in an investor around And of

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<v Speaker 1>course you got to keep that kind of longer term

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<v Speaker 1>view off things. But the one, the one thing that

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<v Speaker 1>concerns me a little bit about the the short term

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<v Speaker 1>or i say, over the next a month or two,

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<v Speaker 1>is the no matter what the president tweets, we have

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<v Speaker 1>more than just the trade issued it to face with

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on in Hong Kong. There's no question we're

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<v Speaker 1>also seeing a slowdown in the economy and and and

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<v Speaker 1>earnings growth. Uh. And you know, so there's several different

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<v Speaker 1>issues that UH creating a headwind for the market. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're six six percent from the all time high,

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<v Speaker 1>which really isn't that much of a decline, uh, given

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<v Speaker 1>the the you know, the stretch valuations and stuff that

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<v Speaker 1>we saw before. So I don't think this trade issue

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<v Speaker 1>is gonna go away as it is. Uh. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think we probably have some more downside here, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>how much more downside? Well? But you know, it's funny,

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<v Speaker 1>given given what the uh's going on right now, I

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<v Speaker 1>could say, you know, she's a normal eight to ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent correction would be in the cards, and that would

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<v Speaker 1>not be a big deal. The one little problem we

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<v Speaker 1>do have, though, of course, is that today's mechanized tradings,

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<v Speaker 1>with all the high frequency traders and the al goes

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<v Speaker 1>and and things like that, that we tend to overshoot

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<v Speaker 1>when the month's momentum gets going in either direction. So

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<v Speaker 1>this could become more of a a tend of fifty

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<v Speaker 1>percent correction. UH. Again based on that kind of artificial movement.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So let's cue the FED reaction function here

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<v Speaker 1>and wonder going forward how much the FED is going

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<v Speaker 1>to respond to a possible decline of ten in US

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<v Speaker 1>equities and whether it will matter. So what's your expectation there? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's one thing I've been saying for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time is that you know, the FED is definitely

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<v Speaker 1>data dependent and economically dependent, but they've also proven even

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<v Speaker 1>more so in the last few years or last year

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<v Speaker 1>or so, that there are a very market dependent So

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that will have an impact. Now if

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<v Speaker 1>we get that ten to fifteent correction, Uh, that will

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<v Speaker 1>I think get another two rate cuts this year instead

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<v Speaker 1>of just one. And if it gets even deeper than that,

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<v Speaker 1>if we see the same kind of a turmoil we

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<v Speaker 1>saw on the fourth quarter of last year, I think

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<v Speaker 1>there's a good chance that they could reignite a que program. Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>reignite a qui program as soon as this year. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>by early next year, if we think things become bad.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a good chance of that. But to

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<v Speaker 1>what end, right, I mean, we're looking at thirty year

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<v Speaker 1>treasury yields that are all time lows, benchmark yields around

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<v Speaker 1>the board are pretty low. What's the goal here? How

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<v Speaker 1>much is that going to actually ignite growth? Well, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>as UH as we always us. As a strategist, I

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<v Speaker 1>gotta sit there and say, oh, what what should distinguish

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<v Speaker 1>between what they should do and what they will do?

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<v Speaker 1>So what I've just described as what I think they

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<v Speaker 1>will do, should they do it, I don't know what

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<v Speaker 1>what kind of end that kind of brings it brings in.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean to me, bear markets and and and recessions,

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<v Speaker 1>especially the normal ones we have. But everybody's afraid that

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<v Speaker 1>the last two were so bad that gosh, we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have another fift a bearn market. Well, usually they're mild

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<v Speaker 1>recessions in twenty bearer markets, they're normal. Those things are healthy.

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<v Speaker 1>Why the fed fields that we can't go have one

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<v Speaker 1>of those is beyond me. I think would be healthy

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<v Speaker 1>if we did that. However, I do think that they

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<v Speaker 1>do feel it's important to keep the this uh expansion going,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why I think that's what they'll do. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm gonna talk stical perspective. Which equity index has

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<v Speaker 1>the most upside of the most downside? Well, the one thing,

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<v Speaker 1>the one I'm watching the most closely right now. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Wilson just talked about it was the Russell two thousand. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's been an important leading indicator for the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market, uh for you know, for many years, but

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<v Speaker 1>even especially last year, and we saw it it turned

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<v Speaker 1>down before the rest of the market did before you

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<v Speaker 1>that in that fourth quarter of correction. Uh. So what

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<v Speaker 1>I'll be looking for is, right now it's testing it's

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<v Speaker 1>June lows, uh, and so any further downside from there

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<v Speaker 1>will give it a key lower low and probably indicate

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<v Speaker 1>that the rest of the markets heading a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>lower as well. You know, as I said, into that

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<v Speaker 1>tent to percent correction territory, and uh, the Russell tends

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<v Speaker 1>to uh see a bit of a wider, wider swings.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that's probably got more downside than than

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<v Speaker 1>the SMP. And which industry do you think, which sector

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<v Speaker 1>of the market do you think is is poised to

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<v Speaker 1>uh most underperform going forward? Well, it's uh, I'm afraid

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna have to be. You know, there's some of

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<v Speaker 1>the chip stocks and the semiconductor I'm sorry in the

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<v Speaker 1>text box. Overall, Uh, they've had the biggest move, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and therefore they probably give us the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>down side. Again, I'm not certainly not calling for what

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<v Speaker 1>we saw in two thousand or anything like that. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>I think this will present some great opportunities. And if

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed does indeed step back on the accelerator, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>if people have a little extra cashiy on the sidelines

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<v Speaker 1>that they raised now to take advantage of an overshoot

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<v Speaker 1>to the downside, UH, they're gonna be Uh. They're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>profit very well in next year the longer term. Matt Maylie,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for being with us. Matt Maylee

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<v Speaker 1>is managing director and equity strategist at Miller take Back

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<v Speaker 1>and Company. Taking a look at how technical indicators point

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<v Speaker 1>to further downside ahead. Question Walmart shares surging even after

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<v Speaker 1>Macie's came out with worse than expected results. Looking around,

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<v Speaker 1>what is the state of the US consumer? How are

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<v Speaker 1>retailers faring? We are so lucky to have with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Bert flicking Jar, managing director at Strategic Resource Group, joining

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<v Speaker 1>us here in our interactive broker studios. Let's start with

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<v Speaker 1>Walmart shares jumping the most in a year. UH. Solid

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<v Speaker 1>growth in their e commerce business, solid growth when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to consumers not seeing a huge impact by tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>Give us your sense, what's the most important thing we

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<v Speaker 1>need to focus on in these earnings. Most important thing,

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<v Speaker 1>Lisa is Walmart has the best CEO anywhere in worldwide

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<v Speaker 1>retail and the best leadership team since Sam Walton started

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<v Speaker 1>the company and ran it from so in that Doug

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<v Speaker 1>McMillan believes in doing doing what's right. So, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>in solar sustainability, environmental Walmart wasn't there under prior leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>Walmart is up there with Amazon and Target as being

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<v Speaker 1>the best in solar power. What's the implication for the

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<v Speaker 1>consumer and the comp penny is Walmart's able to pay

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<v Speaker 1>higher prices, higher wages to its workers through the savings

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<v Speaker 1>and the money it's making through environmental and sustainable solar

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<v Speaker 1>and lowering prices to shoppers. Everybody's winning. Let's let's dig

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit further into salaries or wages, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hourly wages. Walmart has come under a lot of attack

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<v Speaker 1>traditionally for not paying people that much or having people

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<v Speaker 1>on in a part time basis so they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>to pay them benefits. Uh, there have been a salary

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<v Speaker 1>increases or wage increases, hourly wage increases. How has that

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<v Speaker 1>affected their business? It's affected the business in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>higher workers satisfaction, higher productivity, higher retention, greater consumer satisfaction

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<v Speaker 1>scores through consumer reports, dot Com, etcetera. So Walmart that

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<v Speaker 1>was criticized for raising prices because Mr Sam or Sam Walton,

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<v Speaker 1>the founder wrote in his book My Story, he always

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<v Speaker 1>paid workers as little as they could. His son on

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<v Speaker 1>the four anniversary of the Walmart profit sharing plan, blew

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<v Speaker 1>up the plan, and Doug McMillan was for the last

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<v Speaker 1>five years record comparison and same store sales since he

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<v Speaker 1>started because he believes in doing what's right for the worker,

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<v Speaker 1>which is right for the shopper and right for the community.

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<v Speaker 1>And has there been a less political pressure on Walmart

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<v Speaker 1>as a result, there's been less political power. McMillan, who's

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<v Speaker 1>this son of a Vietnam veteran army doctor, took it

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<v Speaker 1>upon himself to discontinue automatic and semi automatic weapons years ago. So,

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<v Speaker 1>in addition to solar sustainability, discontinuing merchandise with the Confederate flag,

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<v Speaker 1>and raising shoppers standards of living through the lowest prices

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<v Speaker 1>Walmart's had in ten years and establishing co low price

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<v Speaker 1>leadership with Winco lowest in the US. Walmart's winning for

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<v Speaker 1>the worker, the shopper and really helping to drive the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>In the stock market today, as you said, Walmart's up

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<v Speaker 1>almost five pc, the S and P Retail Index, the

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<v Speaker 1>x RT on the Bloomberg's down almost one percent. So

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<v Speaker 1>Walmart's really breaking through very clearly. The Walmart earnings inspired

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<v Speaker 1>you on multiple levels. Let's move on to something that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a little less inspiring, but at least isn't as

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<v Speaker 1>bad as some people have been expecting. We're talking j C.

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<v Speaker 1>Penny came out with less bad results than people hadn't

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<v Speaker 1>been expecting. What stands out to you, Lisa's you've reported

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<v Speaker 1>well for a long time is Penny's major debt maturities

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<v Speaker 1>come up in three Penny has dynamic new leadership. If

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<v Speaker 1>they get enough time and financial forbearance, they can turn

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<v Speaker 1>the company around. But with declining earnings and same store sales,

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<v Speaker 1>they really have to do it between the fourth quarter

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<v Speaker 1>and into the next fiscal years, you've reported because the

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<v Speaker 1>debt covenants and credit lines and terms could be tightened otherwise. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it really remains to be seen whether they'll be patients

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<v Speaker 1>among bond investors when it comes to this name, I

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<v Speaker 1>want to broaden out generally to see what all of

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<v Speaker 1>the earnings and the economic data means about the US consumer.

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<v Speaker 1>Time again, economists come out, they say businesses are pulling

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<v Speaker 1>back their spending, but still the U s consumer is

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<v Speaker 1>in a good state, solid continues to spend. The retail

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<v Speaker 1>sales figures better than expected. Do you think that this

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of lagging lagging indicator that will slow down

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<v Speaker 1>based on what we're seeing, or do you think that

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<v Speaker 1>this is an accurate read of where we're at. It's bifurcated.

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<v Speaker 1>Is you reference Macy's department and specialty stores all struggling.

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<v Speaker 1>What we're seeing is that combat denominator. All the retailers

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<v Speaker 1>are winning or low price t j X, Amazon, all

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<v Speaker 1>the Walmart target, b J's costco, and they're all using

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<v Speaker 1>solar to pay more in terms of worker compensation and

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<v Speaker 1>lower prices. So with the lower prices they profitably increased

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<v Speaker 1>market share, while the twentieth century proverbial Roman empires of

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<v Speaker 1>retail are crumbling. So what does that mean? I mean

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<v Speaker 1>if if if the low cost retailers are doing best.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that bearished? Does that mean at the consumer isn't

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<v Speaker 1>doing that well because they gravitating to the lowest price items,

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<v Speaker 1>or does it mean that people just simply can compare

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<v Speaker 1>prices and want a go deal. It's your referencing, Lisa,

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<v Speaker 1>consumers can compare prices. But as you've reported this week

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<v Speaker 1>and on on the Bloombergh debt for seniors between the

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<v Speaker 1>ages of fifty to seventy of increased seventy to UH

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<v Speaker 1>and as a result, those are the sweet spot for

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<v Speaker 1>the department stores. So they're really careful in terms of spending.

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<v Speaker 1>So instead of going to the department store, they go

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<v Speaker 1>to Burlington, t J Max, Marshalls. And consumers, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>so well, whether it's price discovery, whether it's Walmart, dot Com,

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon or Ali Baba are getting the lowest prices and

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<v Speaker 1>buying online or buying off price. So when we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about Walmart, we have to look ahead to Target. To

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<v Speaker 1>Target used to be called TARJ by some because it

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<v Speaker 1>caters to a little bit higher end consumer than Walmart.

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<v Speaker 1>So there seems to be a battle forest between Walmart

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<v Speaker 1>and Target. Who's winning? Uh, Walmart's winning, but there's an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity for both Target and Walmart with the liquidation of

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<v Speaker 1>toys are us is that they both have much more

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<v Speaker 1>room and should have more space for selling toys as

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<v Speaker 1>well as with a record number of rescue pets, puppies

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<v Speaker 1>and cats being adopted UH growing two to three times

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.080
<v Speaker 1>more than the birth rate for children in the US. UH,

0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.120
<v Speaker 1>pet toys and accessories are going up. In the common

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.720
<v Speaker 1>denominatory they both have is solar, their thirty nuclear plants

0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:39.040
<v Speaker 1>being decommissioned, and even more coal. So they're locking in

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.600
<v Speaker 1>their power rates number two operating costs at half at

0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.600
<v Speaker 1>the price for the next twenty years and pouring those

0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 1>savings back back into the shopper and their stores and innovation,

0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.199
<v Speaker 1>while the rest of retails like Fred flint Stone and

0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.000
<v Speaker 1>Slate Rock Quarry just watching the world go by. I

0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.199
<v Speaker 1>think it won't change, so just quickly here to tie

0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.679
<v Speaker 1>this all together and put a bow on it. I'm wondering,

0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:03.439
<v Speaker 1>taking a look at the earnings we've gotten out of

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the retail sector so far, the retail economic data that

0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 1>we got out this morning, how would you characterize the

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>state of the U s consumer? UH Dick and Esque

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 1>best of times and worst of times from tail of

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 1>two cities. Best of times Walmart, Target Costco, all the

0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 1>t j Ax, Burlington, the off price linked retailers. Worst

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 1>of times for the department stores, food stores, drug stores

0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 1>and specialty stores. Burke Flickinger always wonderful having you. Thank

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.080
<v Speaker 1>you great to team up. Please thank you for Flickinger,

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.880
<v Speaker 1>Managing director at Strategic Resource Group, joining us here in

0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio is taking a look at Walmart.

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:53.559
<v Speaker 1>It may become the biggest initial public offering in the

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:58.600
<v Speaker 1>chemicals space. China National Chemical is looking to potentially spinoffs

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 1>in Genta. Uh in it with a listing here to

0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.920
<v Speaker 1>discuss what this could mean. Why now? Jason Miner, Senior

0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 1>Global Coupicals analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Jason, China National

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:14.200
<v Speaker 1>Chemical Corporation purchased in Genta back in seen. Why are

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.599
<v Speaker 1>they doing this now? Well, the timing is key. So

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 1>remember where this is a market that hasn't grown much

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 1>over the last few years, which led to all the restruction.

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 1>We had down DuPont merge and put together Cortiva, which

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.040
<v Speaker 1>is one of the big competitors Buyer mon Santo and

0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 1>we all know there have been some challenges there. Uh,

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 1>and then this year we had a massive amount of flooding.

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:36.680
<v Speaker 1>I think they're looking for a chance to bring this

0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.440
<v Speaker 1>out into the capital markets, and when they time it,

0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>they'll have to play around with when they might get

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>a rebound. So with corn prices below five, well below

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 1>five dollars and playing with four dollars today, those kind

0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.280
<v Speaker 1>of heady earnings growth days of the past have been

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>a long forgotten memory for a while. Clearly there's some

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 1>capital to come from the market for an interesting idea

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 1>like this um, but timing it has to do with

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 1>when we could get a bounce from what's been a

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 1>tough time. So we're talking about pesticides, right, We're talking

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.680
<v Speaker 1>about both pesticides and seeds, and that's sort of the

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.240
<v Speaker 1>interesting thing. You used to have one company makes seeds

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 1>and the other make the pesticides. And over the last

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:14.040
<v Speaker 1>few years we created these three new bundles. The Cyngenta

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.480
<v Speaker 1>KEM China story is one where we put it all together.

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 1>No one's ever proved that that actually works very well. Uh.

0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.840
<v Speaker 1>So these new pesticide and seed companies, there are really

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 1>three of them globally. Uh. They're all trying to find

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 1>their way forward. Uh, sort of an unproven model. What's

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:31.560
<v Speaker 1>the what's the theory behind some of these tie ups

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 1>and sort of Uh some of the speculation about why

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.080
<v Speaker 1>it might not work well. The theory is the one

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:41.120
<v Speaker 1>stop shop. Actually, Um, you used to have a bunch

0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 1>of people visiting the farmers. Some of them are selling

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 1>them seed and some of them are selling them spray. Uh.

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 1>The idea is under pressure and with a lot more

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:51.760
<v Speaker 1>digital tools coming to the market, that you really want

0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.000
<v Speaker 1>to circle that farmer and offer them an app they

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.880
<v Speaker 1>can put on their tablet that recommends all sorts of

0:15:56.960 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>things from the seed to the spray. The challenges doesn't

0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.960
<v Speaker 1>hurt innovation because, um, you're not necessary. You don't necessarily

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 1>want one company who thinks of the app and the

0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>seed and the spray when deciding what to commercialize. More

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 1>competition might bring more innovation. That's the concern now. When

0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:17.680
<v Speaker 1>it comes to China National Chemical Corporation, its purchase of

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.440
<v Speaker 1>c Genta was one of the biggest by a Chinese

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:24.680
<v Speaker 1>company of an overseas of an overseas firm in history.

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to understand whether this was part of their playbook,

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.640
<v Speaker 1>part of their mindset when they bought c Genta that

0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>they were going to list it at some point in

0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>the not so distant future. So they had said that

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>in the past, and I think the challenges a lot

0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:41.480
<v Speaker 1>of it has to be seen through the lens of

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 1>food security. China's crop yields are in many cases half

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.720
<v Speaker 1>those of the rest of the world, and biotechnology, of

0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 1>which Centa was just one of three global platforms, is

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:54.880
<v Speaker 1>a key way to boost food security UH and to

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 1>boost those yields UM. The challenge with the idea of

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 1>the I p O. It does international legitimacy, it creates

0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:05.760
<v Speaker 1>confidence from the buyer's and Genta's footprint is obviously far

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:07.960
<v Speaker 1>outside of China. They've got a lot of sales in

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of countries. UH. It certainly raises some capital

0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.919
<v Speaker 1>to pay back UM the way that they funded it UM,

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:16.600
<v Speaker 1>but whether or not it's all about earnings growth is

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>the challenge, because again, part of the play here was

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.760
<v Speaker 1>probably to help China boost its food security.