1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 2: Merger Monday, another m and a trade. I'd like to 7 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: see it. 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 3: This time Currick Doctor Pepper ingreed to buy JD E 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 3: Peats for fifteen point seven billion euros to bolster it's 10 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 3: struggling coffee business. They're not done then, CURRK Doctor Pepper 11 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 3: will separate its coffee and beverage units into two independent 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 3: US listed companies once the deal is completed. All I 13 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 3: hear is the cash register ringing for the backers and lawyers. 14 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: Let's see what's going on here. Ken schae joined to 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 3: senior consumer analysts. A Bloomberg Intelligence safely ascons down there 16 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 3: in our Princeton campus. Ken, talk to us about Carrick 17 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 3: Doctor Pepper. What are they trying to do here? 18 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: Yeah? 19 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 4: Hi, Paul. 20 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 5: So, this two step deal basically addresses a lagging division 21 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 5: they've had, the carried coffee business. You know, it's it's 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 5: cold beverage business, namely Dr Pepper, Mott's Canada Dry is 23 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 5: doing it really well, whereas the Carre coffee business really 24 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 5: has been a laggered over the last couple of years. 25 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 5: Now that you have higher green coffee costs, you have 26 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 5: you know, fifty percent tariffs coming in from Brazil, namely 27 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 5: coffee beans, slow demand for at home you know pod business, 28 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 5: you know, the ubiquitous CA cups, and it really is 29 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 5: painted a dismal picture for that division of the second half. 30 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 5: So rather than try to sell it, and I don't 31 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 5: know if they try to do that, but rather than 32 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 5: try to do that at a low multiple, what they're 33 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 5: trying to do cleverly is team it up with JD. E. Peats, 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,639 Speaker 5: which is the number two coffee producer in the world, 35 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 5: behind only Nesley, but mostly big in Europe, and you know, 36 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 5: attached the US essentially US business, the CA cup business 37 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 5: together and you have a pretty good, pretty good entity. 38 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 6: You know what struck me when I was reading about 39 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 6: this deal, guys, Doctor Pepper was the second most popular 40 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 6: soda in the US last year. Is that right behind 41 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 6: coke and a head of PEPSI I did not know that. 42 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 6: I can't remember the last time I drank a Doctor Pepper. 43 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 3: Well, if you're in Texas, that's like the stage drink, 44 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 3: then is it now? 45 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 7: Yes? 46 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 6: All right, So but Ken, the questionnaire is, talk to 47 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 6: me about the beverage side, the soda side here, because 48 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 6: I know bottled water has sort of been eating their 49 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 6: lunch the overall industry right for years now, outpacing the 50 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 6: sales of soda. So how what's the health of that 51 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 6: side of the business. 52 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 5: Oh, it's doing very well, le sais the cold everage 53 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 5: side is doing really well, whether it's Coke or Pepsi 54 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 5: or Cure Doctor Pepper, particularly those three companies, because distribution 55 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 5: is everything. These three company have national footprints, so they 56 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 5: can reach all the outlets, you know, whether it's fountain 57 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 5: drinks or traditional supermarkets, you know, vending, whatever, they can 58 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 5: reach it. And they have all had powerful brands. As 59 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 5: you said, Doctor Pepper's really been coming on strong over 60 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 5: the last couple of years, and they have other powerful brands, 61 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 5: and unfortunately they are somewhat mini conglomerate business structure is 62 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 5: being dragged down by you know, Carrig the coffee business. 63 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 5: So that business doing really well. Carrick has shown that 64 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 5: it's also flexible and willing to pivot to fast growing 65 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 5: niche cold beverages. You know, it's a business that continually 66 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 5: changes with consumer tastes. Over the last year or so, 67 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 5: for instance, energy drinks have taken off. So what they do. 68 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 5: They went out and bought Ghost Energy. You know, for 69 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 5: even a younger demographic that typically drinks beverage energy beverages. 70 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 5: They are bigger into the sports the sports drink category 71 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 5: they talked about on the last call a few weeks ago, 72 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 5: to get strong longer. In the protein space, everybody wants protein, 73 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 5: you know, the golp one folks need protein replenishment. So 74 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 5: they've shown a willingness to branch out and tap into anywhere. 75 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 5: We're fast growing col beverages are you know, doing well. 76 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 3: So I look on my global commodity screen and I 77 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 3: see the price of coffee. It's up like twenty five 78 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 3: percent this year. I mean, what's going on with that? 79 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 3: Talk to us about coffee and just the cost of 80 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 3: the beans and all that kind of stuff. 81 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 5: Well, you know, coffee beans are essentially sourced from Brazil, 82 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 5: so to some degree the roasters are hostage to good crops. 83 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 5: And over the last year or so, you really haven't 84 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 5: had great crops. I think some of the sellers in 85 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,239 Speaker 5: Brazil are also holding back knowing that towers are coming 86 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 5: uh and you're not going to get what you know 87 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 5: they would like to get. And that's exacerbating the run 88 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 5: up that you've seen over the past six months a 89 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 5: year in coffee beans. If you went back over the 90 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 5: last couple of years, thirty two or three years, you 91 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 5: would see that the retail price of coffee, whether it's 92 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 5: rate to drink or hot coffee at your local coffee shop, 93 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 5: have increased faster than most other beverages soft drinks I'm 94 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 5: talking about. So you've even seeing some consumers bypower or 95 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 5: switching from say like cold brew cold coffee to move 96 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 5: to energy drinks. It's more cost effective, so the energy. 97 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 5: So the coffee producers have a condundrum. Do they continue 98 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 5: to raise prices and get flatter lower volumes or do 99 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 5: they eat that margin. And so what Cure has decided 100 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 5: to do is kind of divest in a tax efficient way. 101 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 102 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 103 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 104 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, Listen on demand, wherever 105 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, what us Live on YouTube deals. 106 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 3: The Pinaut family is said to explore options for selling 107 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 3: perhaps it's sports brand Puma, and I looked at the 108 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 3: Puma shares as they trade in Germany. 109 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 2: They've almost like half their value. 110 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on over there, but Punham 111 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 3: Coyle does. She's the senior US retail and also Bloomberg Intelligence. 112 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 3: Punham talk to us about Puma. What's going on with 113 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 3: that brand and why the Pinot family and maybe we're 114 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 3: going to sell here. 115 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 7: Yes. I think Puma has come under a lot of 116 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 7: pressure in the last two years, especially since they lost 117 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 7: their CEO to Aditas just about two years ago. What's 118 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 7: happened is that Huma was able to thrive when Nike 119 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 7: had pulled out of wholesale, as they regained a lot 120 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 7: of that shelf space. But now with Nike pushing back 121 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 7: and really entering wholesale in a more meaningful way, Huma 122 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 7: doesn't have that same visibility in wholesale, So their wholesale 123 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 7: sales have struggled and they really haven't found a niche 124 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 7: for themselves to grow the company from where it is today, 125 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 7: so lots of pain points. I think, you know, with 126 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 7: a sale, if there is a sale that is it 127 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 7: might just give it a bigger lap to fall into, 128 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 7: giving it more scale to leverage, and maybe allow it 129 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 7: to grow a little stronger. 130 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 6: You know, I'm curious about endorsements because I just don't 131 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 6: feel like I see it with Puma in the way 132 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 6: that I do with a Nike certainly, or or Adidas. 133 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 6: I mean, I think I saw Duaalipa out there hawking. 134 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 6: I don't know the connection there, but hawking you know 135 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 6: Puma's So are they behind the curve when it comes 136 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 6: to what can be really vital endorsements. 137 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 7: The vital endorsements are critical in the game of sports, 138 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 7: and you're absolutely right. When it comes to mainstream sports 139 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 7: that we're used to, like basketball and soccer and football, 140 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 7: Puma doesn't have as big of a play there as 141 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 7: Nike and Adidas. But Puma has crafted itself into the 142 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 7: smaller sports like cricket. For example, it endorses the one 143 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 7: of the largest cricket players in India. For cricket. It 144 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 7: has the Ferrari sponsorship for racing cars right, so it 145 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 7: does participate more meaningfully in the smaller sports. You might 146 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 7: want to call it versus basketball. You know, it has LaMelo, 147 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 7: but it doesn't have really that much more in terms 148 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 7: of in the other mainstream sports like football or others. 149 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 3: Who do you think should if this company is put 150 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 3: up for sale, who do you think should buy Puma? 151 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 7: That's a tough question. I mean it's probably going to 152 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 7: be right now, it's speculated as anti sports and leaving, 153 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 7: and I think those are all possibilities because they have 154 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 7: the room to take in a brand that wouldn't have 155 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 7: as much overlap. Right it's the predominant brand. It could 156 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:55,559 Speaker 7: help them scale their own visibility. I don't think of 157 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 7: Huma makes sense for a Nike or Adidas, for example. 158 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 7: I don't think that's where alongs, but I think anywhere 159 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 7: else is fair game. 160 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 6: If they don't sell, what are the other options on 161 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 6: the table here? 162 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 7: I think it's just going back to the basics, right. 163 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 7: I think it's going to be harder for them to 164 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 7: compete on with Nike and Adidas because they don't have 165 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 7: the dollars or the deep pockets to advertise and market 166 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 7: as aggressively as the other two do. But they have 167 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 7: to stay true to their niche markets and really craft 168 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 7: their way up from there. It's going to be tough. Look, 169 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 7: the at leisure market is getting more competitive. Everyone is 170 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 7: trying to sell at leisure right. Whether it's a specialty 171 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 7: apparel retailers or the mainstream retailers, whoever it is, they're 172 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 7: all going after that market share because the market is growing. 173 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 7: It's not going to be an easy ride. And they 174 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 7: have a new CEO in place to help them drive 175 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 7: the turnaround, but we haven't heard a strategy yet, so 176 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 7: we're not sure what their intentions are and what the 177 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 7: roadmap is to really drive this turnaround. 178 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 3: At least yet thirty seconds put them who's the Pino family? 179 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 7: Who are they? About twenty nine percent of plum I share, 180 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 7: so I think they're an investor that's largely invested there. 181 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 7: But I would say there's a push to get the 182 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 7: sale going because of the underperformance that they've had. 183 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 184 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 185 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 186 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 187 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 188 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 6: Believe it or not, Apple is just weeks away from 189 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 6: its biggest product launcher, one of its biggest product launch ever. 190 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 6: You're calling it a once in a generation iPhone overhaul. 191 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 6: What does that really mean? What can we expect? Anirag Rana, 192 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Intelligence technology analyst, coming to us live from our 193 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 6: Chicago bureau. An Rag thanks so much for being with us. Look, 194 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 6: I'm the kind of person who holds on to her iPhone. Okay, 195 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 6: I don't have to run out and buy the latest, greatest, 196 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 6: I will have it four years. Why because there's not 197 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 6: really a compelling reason oftentimes to upgrade, unless I'm looking 198 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 6: for a better camera. So tell me what's going to 199 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 6: get me to go out and buy these new iPhones? 200 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 4: You know, frankly speaking most of the Western world that 201 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 4: is still the story is you will go and change 202 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 4: when you're you know, your battery is not working properly, 203 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 4: or there is some issue with the screen. However, you know, 204 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 4: every time there is a new model that shapes up 205 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 4: comes out, you know, there is some excitement, and it 206 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 4: seems that this time bar Guman's done such a good 207 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 4: job reporting again that they'll be launching called the iPhone 208 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 4: Slim or the seventeen, which is like an iPhone, you know, 209 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 4: just like a Macair airbook, you you know, it's a 210 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:50,079 Speaker 4: slimmer phone. It's going to be replacing the iPhone sixteen plus, 211 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 4: so still the base end model. But I think that 212 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 4: is the one area where we are seeing something new 213 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 4: come out of Apple iPhone, which has not been the case, 214 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 4: I thing for the last several years. 215 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 3: So, I mean, again, what can they really do here? 216 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 3: I mean, is there something I kind of think that 217 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 3: phone's fine? What are they looking to do? What are 218 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 3: they looking to achieve? Are they looking to address some shortfall? 219 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 4: It typically targets more the emerging markets, more the Western world. 220 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 4: When you look at some market like the US and 221 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 4: it's pretty saturated in terms of unit growth. What can 222 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 4: happen in the US mostly is people may decide to 223 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 4: upgrade to a larger skew with more memory or a 224 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: better camera, and that just leads to higher average selling price. 225 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 4: But in emerging markets, where the cost bass or the 226 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 4: entry level point, you're giving them something new, something cooler, 227 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 4: perhaps in a new color. You know, that's what brings 228 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 4: in more people to the ecosystem. And then over time 229 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 4: they can go from the base model to the pro 230 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 4: model or the ProPlus model. 231 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 6: What about this foldable iPhone. I know that Samsung did 232 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 6: it with the Galaxy, but that was like five or 233 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 6: six years ago, so Apple's a little late to the game. 234 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 6: That happens sometimes Apple's not always the first to market, 235 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 6: but it sort of takes over the market once that 236 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 6: enters it. So what can we expect from this foldable phone? 237 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's not going to happen till next year. 238 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 4: I mean Markomann said that that's the base or the 239 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 4: slim model is the base of the foldable phone, which 240 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 4: is going to come out next year. So Apple's still 241 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 4: behind on that. But Apple has an argument that they 242 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 4: will not go unless they are absolutely sure. They don't 243 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 4: want to give the users a bad experience, and their 244 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: big issue has been, you know, when you fold that phone, 245 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 4: there's a slight crease in the middle, and they really 246 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 4: don't want that level of technology. Another thing they've done 247 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 4: is using their own mortem in this case rather than 248 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 4: the one that using from Qualcom. Apparently that helps them 249 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 4: to slim the design or the size of the phone. 250 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 4: And you know that again, what's the base for next 251 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 4: year's foldable phone. 252 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 3: You know, there was a time when people would get 253 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 3: excited about new product launchers. Ma Apple, that feels like 254 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 3: ten fifteen years ago. 255 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 2: All people want to know about is AI. What's the 256 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 2: AI strategy? 257 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 3: What's the nuance from recent discussions with Apple about kind 258 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 3: of their AI strates? 259 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 6: Well, Siri get any better? 260 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 5: Please? Please? 261 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 4: I think this is a you know, it's people. If 262 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 4: there's one peg company that's made so much fun around AI, 263 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 4: that's Apple in the last you know, one and a 264 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 4: half to two years. But I still go back to 265 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 4: say that this is probably one of the most important 266 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 4: distribution systems out there in the world to get mask 267 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 4: adoption of consumer AI applications. So Mark's done an amazing job. 268 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 4: Again to talk about what they're doing in that case 269 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 4: is on Friday he reported they are working now with 270 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 4: Google to get to their Gemini models, and frankly that 271 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 4: has been our hope that down the road, if there 272 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 4: is an agreement between Google and and and Apple to 273 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 4: get their Gemini models in the ecosystem, I think it's 274 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 4: going to help Apple defend that you know, Hefty feed 275 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 4: that they generate from Google, which is you know, under 276 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 4: scrutiny right now. But it seems to me that based 277 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 4: on Oldmark has said that they're going to be working 278 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 4: with open Ei and Tropic and Google, and these are 279 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 4: the three companies with the top models right now. So 280 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 4: whether they use it in you know, one particular area, 281 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 4: whether it's you know, whether that's the headphones, or whether 282 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 4: it's on device, whether it's sending stuff to the cloud, 283 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 4: I think they if they can't build it themselves, they 284 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 4: have the capacity to outsource it to one of these experts. 285 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 2: Say with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 286 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 287 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 288 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, Listen on demand wherever 289 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 290 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 6: We want to dive into a broadcasting deal that was 291 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 6: announced not long ago, Next Star A buying its rival Tegna. 292 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 6: It's a six point two billion dollar cash transaction works 293 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 6: out to about twenty two dollars a share. I think 294 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 6: that was about a thirty percent premium when it was 295 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 6: first announced. Shareholders seem to like the idea, but well, 296 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 6: the government so We've got Jennifer Ee here, Bloomberg Intelligence 297 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 6: senior litigation analyst, to break it all down for us. So, Jen, 298 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 6: once upon time there were rules about how many stations. 299 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 6: Once upon that time one company could could own. Will 300 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 6: this FCC approved this deal? 301 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 8: You know, I think in the end yes, because the 302 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 8: timing was right. You know, this isn't a deal. I 303 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 8: think that these companies could have gotten through a few 304 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 8: years ago during the Biden administration. So both of the 305 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 8: rules that the FCC has that would get in the 306 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 8: way are in the process of being changed as we speak, 307 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 8: and Republican commissioners have for a long time wanted to 308 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 8: change these rules. So the first one is the thirty 309 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 8: nine percent ownership cap. You know that one company can't 310 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 8: own or operate TV stations that reach more than thirty 311 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 8: nine percent of US households. These companies say they'll reach 312 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 8: eighty percent. So it's just clear on its face that 313 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 8: there's a problem there. But the FCC is in a 314 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 8: rule making process. They'll probably have this rule, get rid 315 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 8: of it, vacate it. We think by the end of 316 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 8: the year. You know, my colleague Matt Chattenhelm is an 317 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 8: expert on the FCC and we've talked about this quite 318 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 8: a bit. That's probably going to clear out of their way. 319 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 8: There could be litigation, of course, but we do think 320 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 8: the rule will move out of the way. The other 321 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 8: issue is owning more than one of what's called the 322 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 8: Big four broadcast stations ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox. That rule 323 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 8: would also get in the way here, probably in a 324 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 8: number of local areas. Does it called designated market areas 325 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 8: by Nielsen. That rule has also been vacated by the 326 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 8: Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. It will also probably be 327 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 8: in litigation, but it seems like the road is clearing 328 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 8: for the FCC. 329 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 3: There. 330 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 2: It's a whole new world. 331 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 8: Yes, it's a whole new world. But we have Department 332 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 8: of Justice also, so we can't forget that, right, and 333 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 8: we always think about the FCC. The Department of Justice 334 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,719 Speaker 8: is going to be looking at this too, but I 335 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 8: do think they can probably get it cleared through that 336 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 8: agency as well. 337 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 3: All we really care about is President Trump, that he 338 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 3: have voiced any opinion one way or the other about 339 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 3: this type of deal or these types of deals. 340 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 8: You know, I haven't heard anything from him. You know, 341 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 8: it would be reported in the news. I haven't heard 342 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 8: him say anything about these deals. We are beginning to 343 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 8: see a trend though in the merger world, Paul, where 344 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 8: if the companies do and say the right things for 345 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 8: the Trump administration, they're getting assistants and getting their deal through. 346 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 8: And they're all pretty well aware of that. So as 347 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 8: long as they do and say the right things, hey, 348 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 8: we won't block political ads, will be neutral in you know, 349 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 8: our censorship of content things like that that resonate with Trump. 350 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 8: That's going to help them. 351 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 6: Sinclair did come in here with an eleventh hour deal, 352 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 6: did they not? 353 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 2: Yeah? 354 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 6: I think so, but you know they rebuff what it 355 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 6: seemed like on a per share basis, it was better 356 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 6: than the next Star deal for Tegna, So why rebuffet? 357 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 8: You know, I can't speak to that. You know, that's 358 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 8: much more Tegna and Tegna's strategy. Maybe they think from 359 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 8: an anti trust perspective, there's. 360 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 2: Less overlap here. 361 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 8: I mean, it is thirty five of fifty one of 362 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 8: their DMAs, That's what Techna says. But in those thirty five, 363 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 8: depending on what stations they own, that overlap may not 364 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 8: be problematic. It may only be problematic into few they 365 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 8: may still have to divest some stations in order to 366 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 8: get Department of Justice approval. I haven't done that comparison analysis, 367 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 8: but it may be that they have to divest your 368 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 8: stations for this deal, perhaps done a different one. 369 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, how is the Department of Justice when looking at 370 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 3: mergers and equisisms generally defined? Has it maturely changed under 371 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 3: the Trump administration versus the Biden administration? 372 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 8: You know, it's so interesting. The rhetoric at the beginning 373 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 8: was that it wouldn't change, that there would be this 374 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 8: read through, and that there was more commonality with the 375 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 8: Biden administrators than differences. 376 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 2: But it has changed. 377 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 8: You know, they have gone back to settling problematic deals 378 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 8: with you know, structural even one behavioral remedy that was 379 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 8: Omnicom interpublic with divestitures. This is something that wasn't happening 380 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 8: during the Biden administration. They just said, if a deal's problematic, 381 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 8: we're going to sue this. DOJ in this FTC said no, 382 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 8: we're going to work it out. If we have problems, 383 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 8: we'll work out the problems with a fix. We'll have 384 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 8: a settlement and will allow the broader deal to close. 385 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 8: And that's a big difference. 386 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 6: What does this deal tell you though, just about the 387 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 6: larger landscape of television, especially local TV, which we know 388 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 6: has been losing revenue share. They're struggling just because there 389 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 6: are too many places the eyeballs can go, right. They're 390 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 6: competing with streaming and with the big guys. So is 391 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 6: this really a merger of necessity for these local TV stations? 392 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 8: You know, I would think it is, and I think 393 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 8: we're going to see more, you know, that kind of 394 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 8: consolidation has slowly There's been quite a bit of consolidation 395 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 8: actually has over the years. It kind of slowed down 396 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 8: during the Biden administration, but you know, I think it's 397 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 8: going to pick back up again because they are so 398 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 8: challenged by cord cutters, by people who never you know, 399 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 8: younger people who never watch TV at all. 400 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 2: You know, what's that? What is cable exactly? So broad 401 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 2: looking broader here? 402 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 3: I mean, over the next year or two, do you 403 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 3: expect to see more deal activity just because companies and 404 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 3: boards and private and all the forces in out in 405 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 3: the marketplace. 406 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 2: I feel like this is the time to do it. 407 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 3: This is an administration that will support deals. 408 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 8: I think so, and I think it would have already 409 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 8: picked up if we didn't have so much teriff uncertainty. 410 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 8: I think that has slowed things down. But as those 411 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 8: things sort of work themselves out, I think we're going 412 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 8: to see a lot more deal activity because you can 413 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 8: see a path to getting these deals done without having 414 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 8: to go to court and without dragging it out for 415 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 8: two years. 416 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,919 Speaker 6: So this is sort of a litmus test, then, isn't it. 417 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 6: This next Star Techna deal. I think it's for the 418 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 6: rest of the industry. Really yeah, I think we have 419 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 6: a few litmus tests out there. 420 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 8: You know, the Google Whiz deal that's pending is a 421 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 8: litmus test for sure, to see what this administration will 422 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 8: do with a big tech platform merger. I think this 423 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 8: next Star Techna deal is a litmus test because they're 424 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 8: breaking all these old rules that were the orthodoxy for years. 425 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,679 Speaker 8: We're going to see where that goes. And then you know, 426 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 8: you have Dick's footlocker and you've got Charter Cocks. 427 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 2: There are a lot of big deals. 428 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 8: Pending right now, and I think they all are deals 429 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 8: that would have had trouble during the Biden administration, but 430 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 8: I think can get cleared now. 431 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 3: Here's the deal that Charlie Pellott actually mentioned to me 432 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 3: just recently, what was it the Spirit Airlines and was 433 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 3: it jet I mean, sim of those deals that did 434 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 3: not get approved in the Biden administration. Do they bring 435 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 3: them back thinking that maybe they can get more fable 436 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 3: ruling this time. Is there an expectation we might see 437 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 3: some of that? 438 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,479 Speaker 8: You know, I think it's possible that was blocked by 439 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 8: a judge. So the Apartment did win a lawsuit in 440 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 8: that case to you know, basically block that deal. You know, 441 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 8: it's possible that they try again because you have a 442 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 8: very different Department of Transportation which would have to approve that. 443 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 8: You have a very different Department of Justice, and again 444 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 8: you have an opportunity to divest and get a deal cleared. 445 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 8: And maybe at this point there would be structurally different 446 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 8: deal because they could divest certain routes or something like that. 447 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 448 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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