1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. So 7 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: we set the stage really for a world in which 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: investors are yield starved and they look to the stock 9 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: market and wonder how much further can the stock price rise? 10 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: And here to help us understand all this is Milton Berg. 11 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: He is the chief executive and the founder of Milton 12 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 1: Berg Advisors. Thank you very much for being here. Much 13 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: appreciate it. Um tell us your your thesis. I was 14 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: reading some of your notes and I kept sort of 15 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: shaking my head yes and saying, okay, yeah, you're sure, 16 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: you're Barre. That's got to be a tough position to 17 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: be in right now. How do you how do you 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: sort of explain that not only to your clients but 19 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: to yourself intellectually. The clients are doing very well, I 20 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: must say, we've been doing there's about three and a 21 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: f years, we're out form in the market by double 22 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: up fifteen percent peran versus seven percent for the market. 23 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: So we're doing fine. Sam bearish, yes, and very long 24 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: to embarrash, but we're more trading oriented. We're more interested 25 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: in catching turning points. Our clients got long yesterday. For example, 26 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: we recommended going long yesterday for a very simple reason. 27 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: The sp declined all of two point nine percent. The 28 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: VIC surged forty four point three seven percent in August tenth. Now, 29 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: we checked historically, when is the VIX ever surged by 30 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: forty percent on a single day and the nine that 31 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: it hadn't only ten ten times in the past, and 32 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: nine of the ten times the minimum market gains to 33 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: the next top with seven percent only one case where 34 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: the market continued lower two days later. It's more than 35 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: two days later the market hasn't continued lower, which is 36 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: suggestive that the ninety percent probabilities there. So we're looking 37 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: for seven percent rally currently. So we were bearish, but 38 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: we're bullish. Is okay? Um, My mind is sort of 39 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: blowing up a little bit. But I'm trying to understand 40 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: how you marry these two ideas because it actually makes 41 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: perfect sense in a longer term perspective. You are not 42 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: bullish necessarily on the prospect of economic growth accelerating and 43 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: perhaps the debt overhang that we're accumulating due to quantitative easing. 44 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: But there are opportunities day to day to get into 45 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: the market. Is that what you're saying. We don't see 46 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: that abolute day to day. The opportunity is generally uh 47 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: every quarter of a year, and or even in a 48 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: beer market, a great beer market like tree or or 49 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: a great beer market on a real terms nineteen sixty 50 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: six did zero percent over the twenty nine year period. 51 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: They're still opportunity to the market was down to be 52 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: short and many counter trending realizes that where you can 53 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: go along. So we're not looking for day to day trading. 54 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: We were short for about a month and a half 55 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 1: an hour, went long again yesterday. But when you say 56 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: short and long, are you talking about the indexes? Are 57 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: you talking about specific bonds? Uh? And how do you 58 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: sort of gauge whether or not we're we could call 59 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: a macro shop. Basically, when we pick stocks, it's not 60 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:04,519 Speaker 1: because we like the stocks. We pick stocks as we 61 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: like the market with short stock, not because we hate 62 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: the stocks with short stocks as we hate the market. 63 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: It's a totally different concept than what most people in 64 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,399 Speaker 1: this business do. So you can call the macro advisors 65 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: we like. We're more directional than anything else. I've worked 66 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: with George Soros, he's also very directional type of fellow. 67 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: Works stand Rock and will also very directional type of fellow, 68 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: which is what we do. Market is going gonna go up, 69 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: We're gonna find stocks to buy to participate marks going down. 70 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: We're not gonna find stock is gonna do well against 71 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: the market. We're gonna short stocks. So that's what we do. 72 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 1: And currently yesterday we got long. We didn't have the 73 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: confidence to pick stocks. We're only doing macro. We're going 74 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: along with the queues, which is the one SP five, 75 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: expecting a really to less maybe just a month or so, 76 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: but probably a pretty strong rally. I wonder if you 77 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,119 Speaker 1: could just describe, based on your experience, which is extensive, 78 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: what are some of the mistakes that people make when 79 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: they think that they can trade momentum and follow the market. 80 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: There's one mistake they're making right now, and everyone's making 81 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: this mistake there looking at great the economy is worldwide 82 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: and saying Wow, Now the time is being stocks. Forgetting 83 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: that the time to get in stocks because now market 84 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: is great with nine years ago when the bottom of 85 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: the beer market, buy stock is sometime in the future. 86 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: That kind of they're doing well. Once the economy is 87 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 1: doing well, it's too late. You missed it. That's the 88 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: basic basically mistake people and making. People can comprehend how 89 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 1: could the market peak? Everything is doing so well, that's 90 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: precisely when markets peak. Have you been building a lot 91 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: of cash to take advantage of a potential tip? My 92 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: clients are never in cash. My clients are either fully 93 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: either short or long, always trying to make money because 94 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: my clients are basically the titans of the hedge fund industry. 95 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 1: We have some retail clients, we have some advisors that 96 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: manage their client's money. But my advice is never to 97 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: be in cash. There to be long or short to market, 98 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: but individual investors should be in cash in my opinion. 99 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: So what are the liquid securities of the liquid positions 100 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: that you make sure to have to change positioning should 101 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: you be wrong, Well, we just get out of whatever long, 102 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: we get out of whatever short. We don't have any 103 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: any qushion at a scale from once to ten. How 104 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: how parish are you for long term? For long term? Ten? 105 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 1: What's the long term for you? How long term thirty years? 106 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: What about in the next thirty years, meaning because you know, 107 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 1: with the price sales ratio levels never seen before in 108 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: the sp five hundred, with the with no cheap groups 109 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,919 Speaker 1: of stocks, absolutely no cheap group of stocks, with the 110 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: fact that I've mentioned we've seen long term bear marks 111 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: in the past, but the fact that the bond market 112 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: made it is yield low a year and a quarter ago. No, 113 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: actually two thousand eleven, two thousand, January two thousand sixteen, 114 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: and would July anyways, the bond markets thirty years two 115 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: points eight percent and there's no reason to be bull 116 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: showed a long term Miltonburg the bullish bear, the parish bull. 117 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but it's fascinating and it shows sort 118 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: of the conundrum of a market that is bound to 119 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: go up in spurts in the short term, but not 120 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: over the long term. Miltonburg, chief executive officer and founder 121 00:05:52,640 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: of Miltenberg Advisors, LLLC, based in New York. All right, 122 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 1: let's turn our attention now to the world of banking 123 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: and bringing y'allman owner On. He is our senior writer 124 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: for banking and finance for Bloomberg News. Great to have 125 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: you with us here in the studio. Yamen. Your recent 126 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 1: story is that bank profits could increase twenty percent if 127 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: there is any movement on deregulation or changes in financial rules. 128 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: Explain how that would happen. Well, you know, um, of course, 129 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: everybody's watching Congress and and Trump not really get along 130 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: and not being able to do things. So one would think, well, 131 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: then this can not happen either. But but this can 132 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 1: because a lot of the changes that that I looked 133 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: at and that we're actually detailed and highlighted in a 134 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:57,239 Speaker 1: Treasury report in June. UM. The Treasury report basically said, well, 135 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,799 Speaker 1: there would be great if we could actually change legislation 136 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: through Congress, but that probably won't happen. So let's look 137 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: at the things we can do without changing regular legislation. 138 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: So these are all rules that can be tweaked by 139 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: regulators who are going to be appointed by Trump. He's 140 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: slowly making his appointments. He's done some SEC and c 141 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: FDC appointments. Um, there's you know, fed Wise chairman is 142 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: the name has been nominated hasn't been confirmed yet, but 143 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: as these appointments get in place and he replaces the 144 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: leadership of the banking supervisory agencies, he can actually get 145 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: these changes made. Well, let's talk. Let's talk about what 146 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: these changes are, because they're actually, um, pretty fascinating and 147 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: pretty wide ranging considering the fact that it won't take legislation. 148 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: Can you walk us through. Yes. So, for example, one 149 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: of them is changing how the supplementary leverage ratio, which 150 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: is very crucial bossle three UM reform that came after 151 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: the crisis UM that sort of make sure banks have 152 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: some capital for older as it's regardless of risk UM 153 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: and this includes even cash or government bonds US government 154 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: bonds the safest things, but for flat capital required for 155 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: every asset. And this rule is just supposed to be 156 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: a backstop so that banks saying oh, we have no risk, 157 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: we have no risk, end up having so little capital 158 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: that they blow up. But so the rule change would 159 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: be exempting treasuries and cash from the calculation of this 160 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 1: leverage requirement. And then that means you can have more securities, 161 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 1: more government bonds without having to worry about capital constraints. 162 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: So they could level up their current capital and and 163 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 1: buy more US treasuries. You know, this also brings in 164 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: the question what they end up doing with that extra money, right, 165 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: I mean whether that goes to increased dividends for shareholders 166 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: or stock buy backs and and that's going to happen too. 167 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: And and you know buy backs have already buy backs 168 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: and dividends have gone up pretty uh significantly this year. Um. 169 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: You know that after the stress test that were just announced, 170 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: the results were announced in June, Banks basically said they're 171 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 1: gonna return of their profits to share holds in the 172 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: coming four quarters. That's a lot, but that means they're 173 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: not holding back anything to build capital. One reason that 174 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: has happened, of course, is capital has increased since the crisis. 175 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: For many years, they couldn't return anything to shareholders. They 176 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: had to really retain all their profits to build capital. 177 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: That here here has sort of ended, uh partly as 178 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: you know, they're accounting on the regulation. You know, I'm 179 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: struck by the concept of pushback, and there are some 180 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,599 Speaker 1: officials who currently are pushing back, saying that perhaps we 181 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: shouldn't roll back regulations as aggressively as currently proposed. Among 182 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: those who have raised that concern is a FED vice chair. 183 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: Stanley Fisher, his board term runs FED chaired. Jenny Yellen 184 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: is an ally of his. What does the fact that 185 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: she very well may not be in office and Garry 186 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: Cone very well maybe the next FED chair? What is 187 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: that due to this whole calculus? Um? I mean there 188 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: are multiple elements of it. One is um, you know, 189 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: Trump can replace the leadership, so Yellen might not be there. 190 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: But Yellen might not be there as as uh the 191 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 1: head of the FED, but she can continue to serve 192 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: her term. Her term still has time to end as well. 193 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: Same with Stanley Fisher. His vice chairman position ends next year, 194 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: but he can stay on the board of the FED. 195 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: So and and the FED is not as um leader 196 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: driven as it used to be under Ellen Greenspan the maestro. 197 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: He basically made them do everything and everybody nodded. The 198 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 1: FED really now discusses and and and gets two decisions 199 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: on these things. So if Yellen stays and and Stanley 200 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: Fisher stays and and you know, and there are enough 201 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:58,319 Speaker 1: people who really will not just allowed the leadership to 202 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: to force through every we change, then it might not 203 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: be easy. But still the math is is tough. One 204 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: and you know one or two leaving is all you 205 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: need for Trump to sort of fill their spots with 206 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: people like minded and then all these things can go through. Y'allman, owner, 207 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: and thank you so much for joining us. It's really 208 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: an interesting story and sure to get the attention of 209 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: people who are investing in bank stocks, specifically with an 210 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: eye toward this potential boon. Y'allman owner and is a 211 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: senior banking and finance writer for Bloomberg. Speaking of fossil fuels, 212 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,599 Speaker 1: there was another bit of news that caught our attention, 213 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: and it was talking about how a couple of different 214 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: coal companies approached the White House for assistance to stave 215 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: off their bankruptcies. And this was interesting because President Trump 216 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:02,199 Speaker 1: has been really remarkably coal. I want to bring in Rebecca, 217 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: current energy policy reporter for Bloomberg NA located in Arlington, Virginia. Rebecca, 218 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: can you give us a sense of what these two companies, 219 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: Murray Energy and First Energy, we're looking for from the 220 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: White House and sort of the surprise that they did 221 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: not get it? Hi, thanks for having me. Yes, Murray 222 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: Energy Corp. And then uh First Energy Corp. Have reached 223 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: out to the Trump administration um multiple times. They say 224 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 1: in letters that were posted online yesterday, we we got 225 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: hold of saying they wanted a emergency order to be 226 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: issued by the Energy Department to allow them to basically 227 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 1: keep offering their plans and keep them running as a 228 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: way to prevent them from filing bankruptcy. But it's a 229 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: pretty rare instance for the Energy Department to grant these 230 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: emergency orders in the past, they've really only done them 231 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: for large hurricane events or other events that such as 232 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: like the two thousand California energy crisis, where there is 233 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: a real um need to keep plants running for electrical 234 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: liability of the grid. And it seems them those companies 235 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: that make the case um enough for for the grant 236 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: for that order to be granted. Can you explain, Rebecca, 237 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: how politics enters into this, Well, it is that's what's 238 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: so interesting. As you mentioned the Trump administration and President 239 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: on Trump himself has been really forthright about saying he 240 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: wants to keep the coal industry afloat. Apparently he mentioned 241 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: it in his rally last night about you know, getting 242 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: clean coal up and running, and we're seeing that's not 243 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: the case for the Kemper plant in the Southeast. They're 244 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: they're turning that into a gas plant. So it's a 245 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: disconnect between UM, this administration saying it it supports coal, 246 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: but then in reality, UM, there's not a lot they 247 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: can do. There's a lot of economic factors against the 248 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: coal industry right now. Well, even in this particular instance, 249 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: I'm kind of trying to wrap my head around what 250 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 1: an emergency stay would mean. What it just mean that 251 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: creditors couldn't repossess the plants and that they could keep operating, 252 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: or what it mean that the government would actually grant 253 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: these companies some kind of loan that on the cheap 254 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: that they could then repay when they're more financially stable. Well, 255 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: it's really it has to do a little more with 256 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: the grid and UM these regional transmission operators that decide 257 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: what plants go online to keep UM basically the grid 258 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: running reliably. So they want basically UH Energy Department to 259 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: issue issue this ordered basically directing these grid operators to 260 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: keep them, keep them alive or is an option for 261 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: grid reliability purposes, but it's not really used for our 262 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: financial UM purposes. I talked to a few Federal Energy 263 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: Regulatory Commission for attorney is who have worked on these 264 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: cases in the past. They say, this isn't a financial 265 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: um savior for these plans. That's not really what this 266 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: order has been used for in the past, and that's 267 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: likely why the Energy Department didn't grant it, because it's 268 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: really not handing money to these plants. It's really just 269 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: a reliability mechanism as a backup to keep the grid running. 270 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: It's it was kind of an odd pitch, but it 271 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: was seemed to be kind of a last last pitch 272 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: these companies are making to try to stay afloat. Yeah. 273 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: Rebecca Currn, thank you so much. It's interesting to see 274 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: the consequences of actual, real life implementation of policies versus 275 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: some of the rhetoric that we're hearing. Rebecca Currn is 276 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: energy policy reporter for Bloomberg, being a based in Arlington, Virginia. 277 00:15:47,840 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: I'm looking at Murray energy bonds maturing well. Today. W 278 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: p p p LC, which is the world's biggest advertising company, 279 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: reported disappointing earnings that sentence shares plummeting the most in 280 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: seventeen years. And among the list of various factors that 281 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: you can blame, perhaps why not play some blame on Amazon, 282 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: because that seems to be the culprit in a lot 283 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: of different earnings. Leila Aboud is a gadfly columnist here 284 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg, and she wrote a terrific column talking about 285 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: the link between w PPS woes and the ascent of Amazon. 286 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: Leila joins us now, Leyla, can you give us a 287 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: sense of why Amazon has so specifically cannibalized w PPS 288 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: business model specifically? Well, I think the main thing to 289 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: understand is that the advertising agencies, Um, some of the 290 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: biggest advertising actual advertisers in the world are makers of 291 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: consumer and package good So the number one biggest advertiser 292 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: in the world is Proctoring Gamble, Number two as Unilever. 293 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: So companies like w PP, a lot of their business 294 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: and their effort and their their staffs time goes to 295 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 1: serve those customers, those customers Projecting, Gambill, Unilever, Nestley, you 296 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: name it. They're being disrupted by Amazon because it's Amazon 297 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: is now kind of one of the biggest most powerful 298 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: actors in retail today. UM, And I kind of use 299 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: in in my piece today is sort of this the 300 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 1: example of the of the Whole Foods deal, which is 301 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,479 Speaker 1: kind of kind of I think can end up being 302 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: seen as a real seminal moment in the development of 303 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 1: e commerce in the US. It and it's kind of 304 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: even though that deal is not going to change um, 305 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 1: the advertising business or their clients business overnight, it's a 306 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: real kind of um symbolic saying for these businesses. Uh, 307 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: and everybody's worried about it. So um, you know, when 308 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: you're an advertising agency like WPPS, is are the biggest 309 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: one in the world. Uh, they have to worry about 310 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 1: whatever their clients are worrying about, and their clients are 311 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: worrying about Amazon. Does the scale that that WPP has, 312 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: as well as some of the other advertising companies that 313 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: you've written about in your peace, whether it's Omnicom or 314 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: Publicists or into public does the scale of these companies 315 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 1: work against them? Now? I think that's a really good 316 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:09,959 Speaker 1: question and one that somebody like Sorrel will get really 317 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: irritated if you ask him, because I know I've done 318 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: it before. Um, basically you have to so so these 319 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: big holding companies, Uh, we're basically kind of built up 320 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:23,479 Speaker 1: in the seventies eighties. Um. You know, Sorrel building up 321 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: WP was really emblematic, uh person in this regard and 322 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 1: moist they viewed the same thing at t VCS and 323 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: the game was roll up all these different agencies and 324 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: different geographies. You could have a global presence to serve these, um, 325 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: you know, big brands that were growing bigger and bigger. 326 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: I think what's interesting now is that with the rise 327 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: of online marketing and you know, Facebook and Google and 328 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 1: Amazon and kind of just the way that shopping and 329 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: media are changing, um, the value of scale, uh, may 330 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: not be as big as it was for these advertising agencies. 331 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: So you know, you have these big holding companies that 332 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: were built for a different era, and I think if 333 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: you were designing an advertising agency today, um, you probably 334 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 1: wouldn't something that looked like you wouldn't create something that 335 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: that looks like w p P to be honest. Yeah, Well, 336 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: Leyla Pi and I were talking ahead of this segment 337 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: about the idea of famous people or you know, well 338 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: known personalities just hashtagging something in their Twitter feed or 339 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 1: Instagram feed, and that that can be more effective and 340 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: more visible advertising for some of these companies then say 341 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: a thirty second spot on television and so you know, 342 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: w PPS CEO Martin Sorel, did he talk at all 343 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: about the move forward and adopting some of these more 344 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: modern techniques of getting the word out. Yeah, you know, 345 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: they actually do a lot of this stuff. To be fair, 346 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: I mean everyone's having the market is having a collective 347 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: freak out about w PP today. I actually think it's 348 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: a little bit overdone. If you follow advertising, UM, you 349 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: kind of know that all these holding companies WPP especially 350 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: because they're actually quite good UM at doing M and 351 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: A to to bring in new innovation and new technologies. 352 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: They understand what's going on so more than anyone UM. 353 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: And what they're doing is basically they're they're trying to 354 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 1: kind of spread out UM and so they have WC 355 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 1: has a very big bet on market research and data 356 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: and kind of data mining. They have another part of 357 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 1: their businesses is called Cantar, which advises brands on kind 358 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: of defect its effectiveness of their brand. So like you know, 359 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: is how is Tied doing among millennials, will go out 360 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: and study that so they know, and they even have 361 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: bits to do social marketing, social media marketing, so like 362 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: Instagram in filters, they do all this stuff. The problem 363 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: is that kind of as an investor, you buy into 364 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: w p P, which is kind of massive entity at 365 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: the top that does a bunch of this stuff. But 366 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: you know, the bottom line is if the growth is 367 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 1: going to be at um you know, revenue growth is 368 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: going to be at two three organic per year now 369 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: going forward, whereas in the past was more like five 370 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: to four percent. So that holding company level, if you're 371 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: an investor, all you really you're really just focused on that, 372 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: you know. Um, So the holding companies actually make things 373 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: probably look worse than than what's actually happening in the 374 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: individual agencies, whereas a lot of savvy, like you said, 375 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: least of kind of in in Instagram marketing and in 376 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 1: snapchat and all this stuff. Well, Leila, I'm just wondering, 377 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: what do you need a big advertising company for. If 378 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: you can go on Instagram, let's say you are I mean, 379 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: this is the news this week that you're the wife 380 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: of the Treasury secretary and you're able to hashtag all 381 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: of the brands that you're wearing or carrying. That doesn't 382 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 1: cost a lot of money. And now that there's a 383 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: six second YouTube bad So I mean, are they really 384 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 1: with it or they just say that they're with it? 385 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: I think slipped around. So so if you look at 386 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: it from the point of view of the influencer who's 387 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: just putting stuff on hashtags on on Instagram. Yeah, that's 388 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: really easy. But if I'm propter and gamble um and 389 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: I have the Pampers brand, so so diapers, how do 390 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 1: I make sure that people are still buying diapers? Right? 391 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 1: I have sort of I will spend money um for marketing, 392 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: which is like trying to spur online sales, search results, couponing, 393 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: loyalty programs, all this stuff. And then I will also 394 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: spend money on brand building, which is TV ads kind 395 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: of trying to make sure that people have good feelings 396 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: about Pampers. The addinggies were always built to do those 397 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: two functions totally separately, marketing versus brand building. Troubles the 398 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,640 Speaker 1: Internet mixes all this stuff together, right, So so these 399 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: old categories of kind of am I doing marketing or whatever, 400 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: it's it's totally irrelevant, right. But P and G still 401 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: has one big aim, which is create brands that people 402 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: are going to want to buy the products of, and 403 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: they will use Instagram and stuff like that. But I 404 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: don't really know that we have the answer yet whether 405 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: social media networks can really build brands in the long term. 406 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,919 Speaker 1: It's not very as mass market as you think it is. Well, 407 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: I want to thank you very much for enlightening us. 408 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: Laila A. Boot is our columnist, our gad flight columnists 409 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: covering European technology, media and telecoms, joining us from Paris 410 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: and you can follow her on Twitter at l A. B. 411 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 1: Bootles bo U d l b S. Thanks for listening 412 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe 413 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever 414 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter 415 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's 416 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide 417 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio