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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak podcast, avaiable every morning on Apples, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Monday, the ninth of September in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Stocks drop as traders

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Speaker 2: turn their attention to worries over jobs and economic growth.

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Speaker 1: The UK Prime Minister doubles down on cutting the winter

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Speaker 1: fuel allowance as pressure increases on government spending.

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Speaker 2: Plus an eight billion pound warning to UK boardrooms. Why

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Speaker 2: as does equal pay fight with its workers could have

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Speaker 2: far reaching implications.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Worse than expected economic data is fueling concerns of a

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Speaker 2: broader global economic slowdown, as concerned shifts from inflation to growth.

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Speaker 2: Friday's weaker than expected US jobs data has added the

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Speaker 2: view that the country's labor market is cooling and sent

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Speaker 2: stocks reeling. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller says the Central

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Speaker 2: Bank now needs to ensure its strategy. But speaking to

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's David Goura at the Texas Tribune Festival, Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 2: Janet Yellen says she's not yet worried overall.

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Speaker 3: I would see for the US the kinds of metrics

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Speaker 3: that we would monitor that would summarize risks, whether it's

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Speaker 3: asset valuations or the degree of leverage. Things look good,

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Speaker 3: they're not. I don't see rid lights flashing.

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Speaker 2: Janney Ellen speaking there a day after US equity has

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Speaker 2: capped the biggest weekly sell off since the March twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three regional banking crisis.

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Speaker 1: Traders will be keeping a close eye on US inflation

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Speaker 1: data to come this week, as worries mount that the

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Speaker 1: FED has waited too long to cut rights. It's a

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Speaker 1: sentiment now being acknowledged by policymakers, including the FED Governor

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Speaker 1: Christopher Waller.

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Speaker 4: I believe that the balance of risk has shifted toward

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Speaker 4: the employment side of our dual mandate, and that monetary

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Speaker 4: policy needs to adjust accordingly. The current batch of data

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Speaker 4: no longer requires patients, it requires action.

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Speaker 1: Waller says he is open minded about the potential for

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Speaker 1: a bigger rate card and would advocate for one if appropriate.

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Speaker 1: The focus on the US rate policy and growth comes

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Speaker 1: as Japan's economy expanded at a slightly lower than expected

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Speaker 1: two point nine percent in the second quarter, adding to

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Speaker 1: concerns over a broader slowdown in key economies.

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Speaker 2: US presidential hopeful Donald Trump is promising a one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent tariff for countries that shun the US dollar. The

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Speaker 2: Republican nominee PLEDs to make it too costly for countries

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Speaker 2: to shift away from using the currency. During a speech

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Speaker 2: at a campaign event in Wisconsin, Trump told crowds at

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Speaker 2: the event that the US dollar has been under quote

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Speaker 2: major siege for eight years. While dollar dominance has lessened

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Speaker 2: in recent decades, the US currency still accounts for fifty

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Speaker 2: nine percent of official foreign exchange reserves. In the first

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Speaker 2: quarter of twenty twenty four, according to the International Monetary.

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Speaker 1: Fund, China's deflation risk is rising, marking the latest threat

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Speaker 1: to its growth prospects. The country's consumer price index rose

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Speaker 1: by zero point six percent from a year earlier, according

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Speaker 1: to the National Bureau of Statistics. That's compared to a

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Speaker 1: zero point seven percent forecast. Goldman Sachs is Chief China

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Speaker 1: economist Hui Shan says things might be even worse than

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Speaker 1: the data illustrates.

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Speaker 5: I would argue the CPI printero maybe is even weaker

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Speaker 5: than the numbers are showing because the month of August

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Speaker 5: we got a booster from food prices, the inclement weather conditions,

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Speaker 5: the higher vegetable prices that boosted a CPI. But despite

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Speaker 5: the booster from food prices, we're getting zero point six percent.

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Speaker 1: Goldman sax is hu is Shan speaking. Their weak consumption

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Speaker 1: and investment demand have led to intense price wars in

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Speaker 1: China and have dented China's chances of hitting its growth

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Speaker 1: goal of about five percent.

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Speaker 2: Here in the UK, pensioners are likely to see a

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Speaker 2: five hundred pounds bump in their benefits next year. It's

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Speaker 2: a boost that the government helps will diffuse a row

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Speaker 2: over the cut to their winter fuel subsidies. Woomberg Exchange.

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Speaker 2: Wilcock has more.

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Speaker 6: The government are pointing out the pensions are tied to

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Speaker 6: the triple lock, meaning they could go up four percent

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Speaker 6: when rage data is finalized. That money would more than

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Speaker 6: make up for the three hundred pound lump sum the

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Speaker 6: elderly are set to lose. But that hasn't prevented the

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Speaker 6: anger at the cuts, with Prime Minister Kiss Starmer having

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Speaker 6: to defend the move over the weekend.

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Speaker 7: I'm determined that we will take the tough decisions because

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Speaker 7: the change which has improved living standards, people feeling better off,

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Speaker 7: better public services, dealing with crime and immigration and issues

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Speaker 7: like that. That change will only happen if we fix

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Speaker 7: the foundations now, and that's why I'm determined to do

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Speaker 7: it tough. Though I know it is.

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Speaker 6: Armour's party will almost certainly win a vote on the

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Speaker 6: policy later today given their massive majority, but the UK

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Speaker 6: Press report many backbenches plan to rebel. It's a sign

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Speaker 6: of more trouble ahead. With a stretch budget and multiple

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Speaker 6: government departments saying they're in crisis, chansfer Rachel Reeves will

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Speaker 6: have to make more tough decisions that could risk party unity.

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Speaker 6: In London, James Wilcock Bloomberg Radio, the.

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Speaker 1: US Sector of State Anthony blink And will arrive in

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Speaker 1: the UK later today to begin a two day visit.

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Speaker 1: A series of meetings will be held with senior officials,

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Speaker 1: which Washington describes as reaffirming the special relationship between the

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Speaker 1: two countries. Is understood that Blinker will discuss issues including

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and the Middle East, with the Foreign Secretary David Lammy,

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Speaker 1: and may also meet with the Prime Minister, Kissed Armap.

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Speaker 2: One of Europe's largest banks is ordering its UK employees

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Speaker 2: to spend more time in the office. The policy will

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Speaker 2: come into force from next year. Bloombergs tiawa Adebayo has

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Speaker 2: the story.

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Speaker 8: The hybrid way of working, which became popular during the pandemic,

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Speaker 8: is being steadily rolled back by UK employers. Santander is

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Speaker 8: the latest firm to place emphasis on its in person

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Speaker 8: activity as it announces a new policy requiring UK staff

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Speaker 8: to be on site for twelve days a month. The

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Speaker 8: Spanish owned bank is clamping down on remote working, mandating

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Speaker 8: its employees to come to the office one more day

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Speaker 8: per week, according to a company spokesperson. The announcement comes

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Speaker 8: just a week after Big four accounting firm Price Waterhouse

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Speaker 8: Coopers up to its own in office directive to three

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Speaker 8: days a week two in London. To you, added Bayo

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Speaker 8: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: In a moment, we'll bring you up to date on

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Speaker 2: the narrative on markets after Friday's job support from the US,

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Speaker 2: the economic data we've had from China and Japan, and

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Speaker 2: look ahead to the CPI print in the US later

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Speaker 2: this week. Plus, we'll be telling you more about a

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Speaker 2: hearing which could help determine eight billion pounds of equal

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Speaker 2: pay claims in the UK. But another story that cat

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Speaker 2: are eye this morning for those of us still dreaming

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Speaker 2: about the summer as things turn dramatically coulder over the week,

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Speaker 2: and I found how Americans are replacing Britz as the

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Speaker 2: top buyer of holiday homes in the Algarve.

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Speaker 9: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Surprising, isn't it. We've reported a number of times actually

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Speaker 1: about just how popular Portugal is, and Sarah Rappaport, Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Pursuits correspondent, has been writing about this today.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So this is a trend that's reflected to in the

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Speaker 2: tourist numbers. Over a million Americans visited Portugal on the

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Speaker 2: first half of twenty twenty four. That's double the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two figures, and the Portuguese Property Association says that

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Speaker 2: around ten percent of foreign home buyers are now from

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Speaker 2: the US. Unsurprised in the stronger dollar playing a factor

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Speaker 2: there as well, but also the country's digital nomad July

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Speaker 2: to live in Portugal if you earn over about three

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Speaker 2: thy three hundred euros a month. It's also comparably cheaper

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Speaker 2: to buy there than it has places like the French

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Speaker 2: Riviera or the Greek islands, and the time difference helps

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Speaker 2: too because closer to the East coast.

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Speaker 9: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, But there's a real push and pull between the

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Speaker 1: desire for places like Portugal to attract investment or investors

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Speaker 1: or new people, especially from the US, and also the

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Speaker 1: concerns around over tourism, and Portugal has seen protests over

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Speaker 1: the summer, just like a number of other countries in Europe.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Interesting story three this morning on Bloomberg dot Com and

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Speaker 2: on the terminal. Let's turn to the markets now, though.

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Speaker 2: Shares in Asia sliding today as investors continue to digest

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Speaker 2: Friday's US jobs report, which saw fewer jobs created than expected.

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Speaker 2: At that the data from Japan showing weaker growth than

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Speaker 2: economists at forecast, and China's core inflation cooling to the

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Speaker 2: weakest in more than three years. Our market's Live strattus

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Speaker 2: Mary Nicola joins us now for more. Mary, great to

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Speaker 2: have you on. How are you reading the sentiment and

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Speaker 2: what we're seeing on Asian markets today?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, this morning, I think sentiment is pretty jittery, and

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Speaker 9: the US job market is weakening, but arguably not enough

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Speaker 9: to give the confidence of a Jumba recut for the

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Speaker 9: markets and we've seen that in the in the pricing

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Speaker 9: from the OAS market. But of course adding to that,

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Speaker 9: just like you touched upon earlier, was the deflation risks

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Speaker 9: in China, the rising and the weakness and consumption is

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Speaker 9: becoming more entrenched. And then you've got the two global

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Speaker 9: pillar of growth facing challenges. So it's almost inevitable that

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Speaker 9: a lot of these markets are going to struggle this morning.

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Speaker 9: Also on Friday, you had FED speakers Williams and Waller,

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Speaker 9: and they failed to give the green light for a

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Speaker 9: jumbo rate cut at the September meeting. So now that

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Speaker 9: the Fed is in the blackout period, the market's still

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Speaker 9: debating is it twenty five or fifty? But I think

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Speaker 9: the bias is shifting now towards twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, we have USCPI numbers too on Wednesday. How important

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Speaker 1: do they now become to the Fed's calculations.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's interesting now that CPI the jobs market is

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Speaker 9: out of the way. Now CPI is now back in

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Speaker 9: focus and it's going to come under scrutiny because we

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Speaker 9: didn't get that clear signal from the labor market on

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Speaker 9: whether it's twenty five or fifty. So and of course

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Speaker 9: we know that at Jackson Hole, Powell put a lot

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Speaker 9: of the emphasis on what's happening in the labor market.

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Speaker 9: So but the thing is, I think one of the

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Speaker 9: key things from the Friday report was that average hourly

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Speaker 9: earnings were up in August, and I think that could

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Speaker 9: suggest that inflation battle maybe is not done yet. So

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Speaker 9: I think any upside surprise on inflation will just worsen

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Speaker 9: sentiment as it will almost guarantee just a more cautious

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Speaker 9: approach from the Fed.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Mary, it's not just the US that we're

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Speaker 2: focused on, as well as stories of weakening growth coming

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Speaker 2: out of China and out of Japan today too, and

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Speaker 2: we do have another central bank decision coming up from

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Speaker 2: the BOJ the day after the FED.

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Speaker 9: In fact, yeah, I think that the Japan numbers were

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Speaker 9: actually despite the downward revision, I think Japan's GDP was

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Speaker 9: still solid. So private consumption is positive for this first

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Speaker 9: time since Q one of twenty twenty three, you had

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Speaker 9: business spending. It's also higher after a negative number in

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Speaker 9: Q one. The GDP deflator, an indication that there's homegrown inflation,

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Speaker 9: saw its seventh consecutive number in positive territory, so it

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Speaker 9: shows that that's fully entrenched and these are all positive

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Speaker 9: signs for the BOJ to take take away with. So

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Speaker 9: even with the downward revision to GDP, growth is above

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Speaker 9: its potential, which the BOJ estimates to be about zero

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Speaker 9: point six percent, and the BOJ looks on track to hike.

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Speaker 9: It may not be right after the FED, but it

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Speaker 9: could be later this year, especially because the Fed's rate

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Speaker 9: cut is likely to ensue some volatility in the markets.

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Speaker 1: Okay, something we'll continue to follow. Mary. Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for your time this morning. That has been Bergs

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Speaker 1: and Markets Livestrash is Mary Nicola.

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Speaker 2: The best of supermarket chain ASDA faces a crucial stage

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Speaker 2: and its equal pay fight with workers today and what

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Speaker 2: could form the start of eight billion pounds of claims

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Speaker 2: against the biggest retailers in the UK. The case over

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Speaker 2: the discrepancy and pay for retail and warehouse staff is

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Speaker 2: being heard at Manchester's employment tribunal today. Are reporter Jack

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Speaker 2: Ryan is with us for more details this morning, Jack,

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Speaker 2: Good morning. What is the background of this case?

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Speaker 10: So basically the background to this is that it goes

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Speaker 10: back about a decade. These workers, these claimants with Asda,

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Speaker 10: they went to the Employment Tribunal in twenty fourteen, represented

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Speaker 10: by this prominent law firm Lee Day, which often represents

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Speaker 10: these kind of cases. And basically the case of the

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Speaker 10: claimants is that the distribution workers at ASD, the warehouse

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Speaker 10: workers who were disproportionately men, were earning about one pound

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Speaker 10: fifty to three pounds more an hour than the mostly

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Speaker 10: female shop floor retail staff. And so then this case

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Speaker 10: is being taken under the twenty ten Equality Act, but

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Speaker 10: it's being taken basically under provisions that are in decades

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Speaker 10: of British equal pay legislation to seek to basically rectify

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Speaker 10: this pay discrepancy and receive back pay for the six

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Speaker 10: years of pay to make up for essentially the difference

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Speaker 10: between the two wages.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the two groups of claimants seem to be

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Speaker 1: arguing that you know that the value of the work

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Speaker 1: is roughly the same, basically, lots of procedures around how

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Speaker 1: they figured that out. Who do you think would end

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Speaker 1: up paying the bill? Though? If the claims are six, yes, well,

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Speaker 1: and you're looking lit get have I summarized that correctly

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Speaker 1: about the two tropes of claimants?

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Speaker 10: Yes, I think you're right. So there's five different supermarkets

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Speaker 10: that are all facing similar claims here, so as does

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Speaker 10: the one that's the furthest along, and the liability in

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Speaker 10: that case could be huge. The lawyers say it could

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Speaker 10: be as big as one point two billion in the

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Speaker 10: case of Asda, but Tesco also faced a similar claim,

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Speaker 10: as do Sainsbury's, Morrison's and co Oh. As I said,

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Speaker 10: the Asda one is the furthest along, who would actually

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Speaker 10: face the liability? We're not exactly sure now because Walmart

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Speaker 10: in their annual accounts they say that they have indemnified,

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Speaker 10: as does current owners the Esid Brothers and TEDR against

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Speaker 10: a portion of the liability in this case. But we

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Speaker 10: don't know how big that portion is and so how

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Speaker 10: big of a liability that Walmart potentially faces. But the

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Speaker 10: case the hearing up against today in Manchester is really

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Speaker 10: the key point in this process because today's the point

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Speaker 10: at which or I should say, over the next couple

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Speaker 10: of weeks, at the point of which the decision is

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Speaker 10: going to be made on whether and the work that

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Speaker 10: was done by the shop floor workers and the distribution

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Speaker 10: workers was of equal value. And that really is the

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Speaker 10: key decision for the employment tribunal to make in this case.

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Speaker 2: So Jack, As you say the hearing starts today, when

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Speaker 2: should we be expecting a decision in the ASDA case.

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Speaker 10: So for this stage of the hearing, it should be

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Speaker 10: some point in the first half of next year when

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Speaker 10: the court will decide whether or not these two jobs

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Speaker 10: were of equal value. And then there'll be the next point,

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Speaker 10: which will be as there will attempt what's called its

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Speaker 10: material factor defenses, including they will argue perhaps that the

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Speaker 10: market rate for the two jobs is different. But what

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Speaker 10: was very interesting last month is that a similar case,

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Speaker 10: the first of its kind in the private sector, was

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Speaker 10: won by retail staff and next against their employer because

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Speaker 10: of a paid difference between warehouse staff and retail staff.

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Speaker 10: And in that instance, the market forces argument was not

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Speaker 10: considered sufficient as a reason to pay more to hoards

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Speaker 10: to the distribution workers rather than the retail staff.

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