Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: It's already been a day and this is getting to
Speaker 2: be a recurring theme here as Republicans bring a procedural
Speaker 2: vote to the floor of the House to engage debate
Speaker 2: not actually even passive bill on defense spending. And this
Speaker 2: didn't end the way the leader hoped.
Speaker 3: On this vote, the Ya's are two hundred twelve, the
Speaker 3: nays are two hundred and sixteen.
Speaker 4: The resolution is not adopted.
Speaker 2: The House now for a third time here a little
Speaker 2: grown there failing to start debate on this Pentagon spending
Speaker 2: bill eight hundred and twenty six billion dollars, which really
Speaker 2: is making everyone feel like a shutdown maybe more likely
Speaker 2: or imminent. Here it's going to be a working weekend
Speaker 2: at least on Saturday before everyone goes home for the
Speaker 2: Iwish holiday. And even if a cr gets passed in
Speaker 2: the House, it doesn't stand a chance in the Senate.
Speaker 2: That's where changes will happen and things get very complicated,
Speaker 2: and then there's of course, we've got the holdouts here,
Speaker 2: the rogues in the Republican Conference, namely Matt Gates, who
Speaker 2: says no continuing resolution, especially if it requires Democrats.
Speaker 5: But if Speaker McCarthy relies on Democrats to pass a
Speaker 5: continuing resolution, I would call the Capital moving truck to
Speaker 5: his office pretty soon, because my expectation would be he'd
Speaker 5: be out of the Speaker's office quite promptly.
Speaker 2: He knows has a way speaking with reporters outside of
Speaker 2: the House. Marjorie Taylor Green weighing in in a conversation
Speaker 2: earlier with Bloomberg, there were a bunch of mics around.
Speaker 2: But speaking with Bloomberg about the continuing Resolution again, that's
Speaker 2: the stopgap bill that would keep the government from closing DOA.
Speaker 6: She says, as far as the CR, we had an
Speaker 6: over two hour meeting, and what I heard in the
Speaker 6: meeting is there were seven or eight people that were
Speaker 6: no on it, and so it's to me it's dead
Speaker 6: in the water unless they change something.
Speaker 2: Dead in the water. And then of course there's Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: who got to Truth Social last evening. Here, I need
Speaker 2: to pull it up so I can do this properly.
Speaker 2: Truth Social to talk about his take on this. Now, Remember,
Speaker 2: Kavin McCarthy has been an ally, so I'm even arguing
Speaker 2: that this is why he brought up the impeachment inquiry,
Speaker 2: was to help Donald Trump, who writes a very important
Speaker 2: deadline it's approaching at the end of the month. Republicans
Speaker 2: in Congress, he says, can and must defund all aspects
Speaker 2: of Crooked Joe Biden's weaponized government. I'll skip down a
Speaker 2: little bit here, use the power of the purse and
Speaker 2: defend the country. He says. This is also the last
Speaker 2: chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other patriots.
Speaker 2: So we've got a problem here at a critical time here.
Speaker 2: Let I say nine days and we're done, and we
Speaker 2: can't figure out to stop gap, never mind the whole thing.
Speaker 2: That's why we wanted to talk as well with Mark Goldwin,
Speaker 2: Senior vice president, senior policy director at the Committee for
Speaker 2: a Responsible Federal Budget. Mark, it's great to see you,
Speaker 2: Welcome back. We have a lot that we could get
Speaker 2: into here and be curious your thoughts on some of
Speaker 2: the options. But is the Committee kind of like everyone
Speaker 2: else in Washington and expecting a shutdown at this point.
Speaker 3: We've been actually doing. Some surveys of experts at House
Speaker 3: say the odds of the shutdown.
Speaker 2: Are going way up, way up.
Speaker 3: You always assume they're going to do something the last
Speaker 3: minute to avoid it, until they don't. And it's hard
Speaker 3: to see how we get from here to there.
Speaker 2: If you're following this, you know you're playing along in
Speaker 2: your home game. They think that they can pass a
Speaker 2: CR in the House, the Republican Ledhouse, then it goes
Speaker 2: to the Senate. They attach Ukraine funding, they attach disaster relief.
Speaker 2: It comes back to the House. That's where the problem lies, right.
Speaker 3: Well, the House can't even pass a CR yet they've
Speaker 3: been having They can't even get their own I'm talking
Speaker 3: best case case scenario. And the House and Senate not
Speaker 3: only did they disagree on things like Ukraine and disaster,
Speaker 3: they disagree on the top line. Normally, a continued resolution
Speaker 3: just takes last year's numbers and extends them with small modifications.
Speaker 3: But the House wants to go significantly below last year's numbers,
Speaker 3: and the Setate in some ways wants to go above.
Speaker 3: So they don't even have fundamental agreement on the number,
Speaker 3: let alone the things that are attached to it.
Speaker 2: And it's happening against the backdrop of this test of
Speaker 2: the speaker's authority. Does that feel real to you or
Speaker 2: is Matt Gates just you know, having fun entertaining his followers.
Speaker 3: Well, you have to understand. The rules they set up
Speaker 3: for the speaker puts him in constant state of vulnerability.
Speaker 3: So in the past, the majority of the majority was
Speaker 3: kind of the rule. If the speaker, Republican Speaker could
Speaker 3: get most Republicans on a bill, he'd put it forward.
Speaker 3: Speaker McCarthy seems to need almost the entirety of the majority.
Speaker 3: That's a really different criteria.
Speaker 2: Yeah, boy, sure is the problem. Solver's Caucus is reportedly
Speaker 2: working up something here. They've agreed on a plan that
Speaker 2: would in fact make a lot of people happy if
Speaker 2: it ever saw the light of day. It calls for
Speaker 2: all twelve appropriations bills to be passed by January eleventh, Right,
Speaker 2: so this would actually push us through the end of
Speaker 2: the year. Here would include Ukraine, it would include a
Speaker 2: disaster relief, and it would create a Debt and Deficit Commission. Now,
Speaker 2: I don't know if this is going anywhere, but the
Speaker 2: idea of a debt and Deficit Commission, you know, kind
Speaker 2: of brings us back a little bit to the super
Speaker 2: Committee and some of the swings that we've taken at
Speaker 2: this before. Would the Committee support something like that because
Speaker 2: I believe that that that's something that you've encouraged in
Speaker 2: the past. How about in the form it's being proposed to.
Speaker 3: Very strongly, we just put out a letter with eleven
Speaker 3: of some of the top policy experts in the left, right,
Speaker 3: and center, all calling for a fiscal commission. The appropriations
Speaker 3: we're talking about now, they cover a quarter of the budget,
Speaker 3: so that leaves three quarters of the budget undiscussed, plus
Speaker 3: all the revenue. This commission is probably our best way
Speaker 3: forward to have an honest, adult, bipartisan conversation over medicare,
Speaker 3: over tax policy, over social Security, and over other parts
Speaker 3: of the budget that frankly, politicians are too excited to
Speaker 3: beat each other over the head with and not interested
Speaker 3: enough in solving when it's out in public.
Speaker 2: Interesting, do you have a sense of what's going to
Speaker 2: happen in the next week here? Even if Republicans do
Speaker 2: finish their work this weekend, the shutdown would happen at
Speaker 2: the fiscal year, not say, a month from now, because
Speaker 2: you don't expect a cr to pass or is this
Speaker 2: just anyone's guess.
Speaker 3: It's anyone's guess. I think they could come together last
Speaker 3: minute with a short kick the can. We could be
Speaker 3: in a shutdown and then we have to reopen. I
Speaker 3: hope that whatever they do, they take very seriously this
Speaker 3: idea of a fiscal commission, because we're not going to
Speaker 3: solve any of our budgetary challenges just looking at the
Speaker 3: defense and the non defense appropriations.
Speaker 2: Remembering, of course, there was a debt ceiling deal. What
Speaker 2: if you brought that back to the floor, now, what
Speaker 2: would happen?
Speaker 3: So what's interesting is the whole purpose of that debt
Speaker 3: ceiling deal was to set the number so that the
Speaker 3: appropriators could fight about other stuff.
Speaker 2: And we're still more arguing over that numb deal never happened.
Speaker 3: The House wants to go way below the deal, the
Speaker 3: Senate actually wants to go above the deal. Nobody actually
Speaker 3: wants to stick to the deal.
Speaker 2: But he passed it at one point. Could he do
Speaker 2: it again? It's just amazing. You go away for August
Speaker 2: recess and you come back and we're in a different
Speaker 2: reality somehow.
Speaker 3: Yeah, be interesting to ask the folks that voted for
Speaker 3: it whether you support the deal, but you just don't
Speaker 3: support what would come out of it or not. Remember again,
Speaker 3: there's this unanimity among majority problem. Right, So not every
Speaker 3: Republican voted for that deal. Perhaps the same ones that
Speaker 3: voted for the deal would vote for the appropriation. But
Speaker 3: then Speaker McCarthy is at risk of a voter no
Speaker 3: confidence effectively.
Speaker 2: What does it do having Voladimir Zelensky here? As I
Speaker 2: was saying with Jack, you know, right in the middle
Speaker 2: of all this, the motorcade rolls up. He's meeting with
Speaker 2: leadership at least on the Senate side, and he's meeting
Speaker 2: with the Speaker as well. Not so much the rank
Speaker 2: and file does a bit of a disruption here and
Speaker 2: reminds everybody of this thing that we can't seem to
Speaker 2: agree on. Does his arrival make it more likely that
Speaker 2: Ukraine will get another dose of funding or is it
Speaker 2: interrupting the flow?
Speaker 3: You know, maybe a little bit of both. I do
Speaker 3: think that ordinarily the need for emergency or disaster funding
Speaker 3: actually can kind of skid the wheels increase the wheels.
Speaker 3: Excuse me, Yeah, right, so the hurricane money needed in Florida, etc.
Speaker 3: But in this case, the Ukraine funding has become controversial
Speaker 3: in some circles, and it may actually be an impediment
Speaker 3: to a final deal.
Speaker 2: Does the committee want to hear a conversation about revenue
Speaker 2: or is it just about funding responsibly living within our means.
Speaker 2: It seems we never talk about the potential of hiking taxes.
Speaker 3: To try to close this gap, we have to talk
Speaker 3: about revenue. Look, there's about one and a half trillion
Speaker 3: dollars a year we spend through the tax code on
Speaker 3: various tax breaks. The idea that we would talk about
Speaker 3: the real spending but not the tax spending is a
Speaker 3: little bit silly, and it's another reason I think this
Speaker 3: Fiscal Commission can help. I worked on the Simpson Bulls
Speaker 3: Commission in twenty ten, on the Super Committee in twenty eleven,
Speaker 3: and all of the Republicans, I do, Democrats Republicans both agreed,
Speaker 3: we need to talk about entitlements, We need to talk
Speaker 3: about revenue.
Speaker 2: Yeah, did Donald Trump just guarantee your shut down? Did
Speaker 2: you see what he vuote on true Social something New?
Speaker 2: Or he's urging Republicans to vote against what he calls
Speaker 2: a very important deadline at the end of the month.
Speaker 2: Republicans in Congress can and must defund. He says, all
Speaker 2: aspects of Crooked Joe Biden's weaponized government. And I could
Speaker 2: read the rest.
Speaker 3: But well, there's a couple of ways this can go down, right.
Speaker 3: The one is that the House Republicans come together on
Speaker 3: something they can negotiate with the Senate. And the others
Speaker 3: is that this isn't bipartisan pell one way or another.
Speaker 3: We are not going to have the government shutdown for
Speaker 3: the entire next fiscal year. So even if it's shutdown,
Speaker 3: it we'll reopen at some point, and we will need
Speaker 3: the votes for that.
Speaker 2: You like to think it will, Let's hope we're not
Speaker 2: about to make history. Mark Goldwine, great to have you back,
Speaker 2: someone we want to stay in touch with while this
Speaker 2: is being figured out from the Committee for a Responsible
Speaker 2: Federal Budget, our neighbors here in Washington, where he's Senior VP,
Speaker 2: Senior Policy Director. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington will assemble
Speaker 2: our panel next John Sidleledi's Lincoln Mitchell or with us
Speaker 2: only here on.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Kyley lines here she is in a whole different studio.
Speaker 7: Good to see you.
Speaker 8: You.
Speaker 2: Actually you were up on Capitol Hill for a good
Speaker 2: chunk of the morning and I was too impossible to
Speaker 2: get around because every street is closed around the Capitol
Speaker 2: because Zelenski, well at least was there and pretty interesting here.
Speaker 2: You know, we're all talking about a potential shutdown after
Speaker 2: what's been going on even today with that failed vote
Speaker 2: in the House on a military funding getting cloture or
Speaker 2: at least moving through that procedural vote, Kayley. But the
Speaker 2: argument for Ukraine funding is pretty loud today too. He's
Speaker 2: on the Pentagon for the first time. Then he's going
Speaker 2: to the White House later on. But you talk to
Speaker 2: a lot of lawmakers who have a lot of different
Speaker 2: views on whether we're we're going to shut down a
Speaker 2: week from tomorrow.
Speaker 7: I did, I mean I talked to some of those hardliners,
Speaker 7: including Republican Congressman Matt Gates of Florida, who told me
Speaker 7: there will not be sufficient Republican votes for a continuing resolution,
Speaker 7: and then he went on to say, if they've had
Speaker 7: moderate Republicans who want to join up with Democrats, they'll
Speaker 7: be signing their own political death warrant. So I think
Speaker 7: that just speaks to the mood among some Republicans on
Speaker 7: the Hill right now. But to your point, Joe, of
Speaker 7: Ukraine being one thing and funding battles being another, I
Speaker 7: would argue that they are tied because one of those
Speaker 7: that flipped on McCarthy, one of the individuals who decided
Speaker 7: not to vote for the DoD funding bill was Marjorie
Speaker 7: Taylor Green, and I asked her why outside the Capitol,
Speaker 7: and she said, I wanted Ukraine funding. Out of that
Speaker 7: they should have spun it off into a separate bill
Speaker 7: bill I could have voted no for. They didn't do that.
Speaker 7: So I voted no on the rule and I'll vote
Speaker 7: no on the bill.
Speaker 2: Michael McCall meantime, says, fine, we'll write it into the
Speaker 2: budget for next year. He was talking to reporters earlier
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 9: Right now, as the triops, you're going in with no
Speaker 9: air kever, they have to take the minds by hand
Speaker 9: at nighttime. We wouldn't send our troops into that situation.
Speaker 9: So we need to give them everything they need. If
Speaker 9: this administration won't give it to them, then I submitted
Speaker 9: that we write it in our appropriations bill, We write
Speaker 9: the weapons that he asked for that this administration won't give,
Speaker 9: write that in our proporation's bill. And I think the
Speaker 9: Democrats at the table were the Stenny warrior that Nancy
Speaker 9: Plosi to the whip and Chairman, mister Meeks, we all.
Speaker 2: Agree Nancy Pelosi is still in charge of that. You
Speaker 2: were in that in that scrum. He was just emerging
Speaker 2: from his meeting with a lot of Versilensky.
Speaker 7: Correct that he was there with Speaker McCarthy and he
Speaker 7: said that Speaker McCarthy did press Selensky on the accountability
Speaker 7: question that a lot of lawmakers have been raising, but
Speaker 7: that also McCarthy has been strong in his support for Ukraine.
Speaker 7: And he was asked about that twenty four billion dollars
Speaker 7: in supplemental funding for Ukraine that the White House has
Speaker 7: asked for if it'll pass, and mccau seems pretty firm
Speaker 7: that Ukraine is going to get that aid, that the
Speaker 7: House is going to make that happen. It just might
Speaker 7: be kind of hard to get that done given the
Speaker 7: rhetoric we're hearing from some other members.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, it was not only McCall by the way, who
Speaker 2: was talking about his meeting with Selensky. In the other chamber,
Speaker 2: we heard from Senator Chuck Schumer.
Speaker 4: Let me just there was a single sentence that summed
Speaker 4: it all up, and I'm quoting him, verbade him. Mister
Speaker 4: Zelenski said, if we don't get the aid, we will
Speaker 4: lose the war.
Speaker 10: That's a quote. Ute.
Speaker 4: Were there pushback from Republicans.
Speaker 2: In that room, No answer to the questions it's bringing
Speaker 2: Brett Bruin, I've been looking forward to the president of
Speaker 2: the Global Situation Room, former US diplomat and the Obama
Speaker 2: administration is with us right now and a reliable voice
Speaker 2: when it comes to Ukraine and of course all geopolitical matters. Brett,
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back. We spent so much
Speaker 2: time talking about this war effort in the run up
Speaker 2: to war, in the execution, going through the counter offensive,
Speaker 2: and now the fight for money. Does this visit make
Speaker 2: a difference for President Zelensky?
Speaker 11: Well, I have to say, Joe, it could not have
Speaker 11: come at a more important time as they are hashing
Speaker 11: out not just you know, questions overall of government funding,
Speaker 11: but very specifically will they authorize those twenty four billion
Speaker 11: dollars that the Biden administration is asking for. And it
Speaker 11: is hard to look Zelensky in the face, to see
Speaker 11: that pain on his face and to turn him down.
Speaker 11: And I think it will be more difficult tomorrow and
Speaker 11: in the coming days for many Republicans to hold that
Speaker 11: line that somehow our support that one hundred billion dollars
Speaker 11: or so is not being well spent. When you see
Speaker 11: the sacrifice, you see the bravery that Ukrainians are demonstrating
Speaker 11: on the battlefield.
Speaker 7: Well, when we talk about what we see, I wonder
Speaker 7: what kind of message it sends, at least optically for
Speaker 7: someone on the outside looking in, like Vladimir Putin to
Speaker 7: see when Vladimir Zelensky was walking into the House meeting,
Speaker 7: he was flanked only by the Democratic leader Hakim Jeffreys.
Speaker 7: He was not there being walked escorted in by Speaker McCarthy.
Speaker 7: And I feel like that just visually also underscoes some
Speaker 7: of the discord we are seeing.
Speaker 11: How does that play, Yeah, Kailee, I think this is
Speaker 11: really important to remind folks here in Washington that every
Speaker 11: appearance of doubt division is an opportunity for Moscow and
Speaker 11: they will exploit it to the fullest. When I was
Speaker 11: at the White House back in twenty thirteen twenty fourteen
Speaker 11: focused on Russian propaganda, they take those sound bites and
Speaker 11: they amplify them. So I think it's really important for
Speaker 11: leaders on both sides of the Aisle to be responsible
Speaker 11: with their questions. Yes, we should make sure that our
Speaker 11: money's being well spent, we shouldn't just write playing checks.
Speaker 11: But at the same time, you know this notion that
Speaker 11: somehow we're just not going to send any more support
Speaker 11: that hits really hard in the trenches of eastern Ukraine.
Speaker 2: So how's this going to end? He is making his
Speaker 2: trip through Congress, stopping by the Pentagon and then talking
Speaker 2: to the President Brett, it's that first visit that's really
Speaker 2: going to matter. He did get with Speaker McCarthy, and
Speaker 2: to your point, it does seem that being in person
Speaker 2: maybe loosen up the mood a little bit with some
Speaker 2: of the limited commentary that we've I've heard from Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 2: But this is probably not going to be part of
Speaker 2: a continuing resolution. What can President Zelenski actually get done today.
Speaker 11: I think it's really important at the White House that
Speaker 11: President Biden and his team start to articulate what does
Speaker 11: success look like? We want twenty four billion extra dollars
Speaker 11: and this is what we think that we can see
Speaker 11: in the coming months in terms of progress, because up
Speaker 11: until now it has just been one announcement of more
Speaker 11: money after another, and I think Republicans are taking advantage
Speaker 11: of that. They're exploiting the fact that the administration says
Speaker 11: we'll just send more money over We've got to start
Speaker 11: looking at what are those goals, what does success look like?
Speaker 11: And I think that will help to ensure that everyone
Speaker 11: remains focused on what all of this is for.
Speaker 7: Well, on that subject of defining success, Brett, when Congressman
Speaker 7: McCall came out of that House meeting and was talking
Speaker 7: to a group of US reporters, he said that this
Speaker 7: can't be a war of attrition, that there needs to
Speaker 7: be a plan for victory and it needs to happen quickly,
Speaker 7: and the speed of things was something he kept coming
Speaker 7: back to. Also, the idea that Ukraine just isn't getting
Speaker 7: weapons fast enough, even if the US agrees to send them,
Speaker 7: that the process is just too slow. What's your take
Speaker 7: on that, even if you know, okay, here Ukraine, you
Speaker 7: can have what you want, but it still has to
Speaker 7: get to those front lines. It has to get there
Speaker 7: to start making a real difference. And I just wonder
Speaker 7: if it is too slow to make a difference.
Speaker 11: And I agree, Kaylee, I think we are in this
Speaker 11: situation where the last year and a half, you know,
Speaker 11: Ukraine has had to go down a laundry list of asks.
Speaker 11: Every time the administration here in Washington saying I don't
Speaker 11: think so, only to reverse course. That choose up valuable time,
Speaker 11: It choos up valuable resources that could be spent on
Speaker 11: executing a strategy, on getting further support. So I really
Speaker 11: hope as we head on, unfortunately towards that two year mark,
Speaker 11: there is an effort to articulate these are the things
Speaker 11: that we're going to need in order to get to
Speaker 11: where we think we could be a year from now,
Speaker 11: and that helps I think everyone across the NATO Alliance
Speaker 11: to understand what they have to show up with, because
Speaker 11: right now it's kind of like a potluck meal.
Speaker 2: We're talking with prep Bruin at the Global situation room, Brett,
Speaker 2: I've got to ask you about what's happening in Poland. This,
Speaker 2: of course Ukraine's neighbor, whose premiere says the country is
Speaker 2: halting weapons supplies to Ukraine. We are no longer this
Speaker 2: is a direct quote transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we
Speaker 2: are now arming Poland with more modern weapons. Went on
Speaker 2: to say his government has no intention to quote risk
Speaker 2: the security of Ukraine unquote, and will not interfere with
Speaker 2: armed shipments from other countries through this country that of
Speaker 2: course has become the hub for these transfers. How much
Speaker 2: of a problem is this and is this coming down
Speaker 2: to a personal dispute between Poland and Ukraine.
Speaker 11: Well, look, Poland also has an election coming up. Some
Speaker 11: of this is domestic politics. But what I will say
Speaker 11: is that it raises the challenge of our defense production capabilities,
Speaker 11: both here in the US but particularly in Europe. And
Speaker 11: I don't think that enough has been done to ramp
Speaker 11: those up. Because we've been sending an extraordinary amount of
Speaker 11: arms and weapons systems over to Ukraine. We have to
Speaker 11: backfill those. We have to expand capacity, not only you
Speaker 11: know in the European theater, but obviously we have a
Speaker 11: significant threat that is developing over in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 11: So we've got to focus on a broader strategy, and
Speaker 11: I think we've been too myopically looking at some of
Speaker 11: these issues. You know, I served in a rock as
Speaker 11: a diplomat with an army commander who was saying, you
Speaker 11: can be so focused on the problem that you missed
Speaker 11: the threat. And I think we are really focused on Ukraine.
Speaker 11: We've got to ensure that our European allies also have
Speaker 11: what they need.
Speaker 7: So on the subject of the threat, those who are
Speaker 7: proponents of continuing to help Ukraine in this war to
Speaker 7: continue to provide funding essentially, see anything that is giving
Speaker 7: in in any way or relenting in the battle against
Speaker 7: Russia is sending signals elsewhere to I don't know, places
Speaker 7: like China. Brett, what do you think about that? Not
Speaker 7: just that the signals that whatever is happening in the
Speaker 7: US is sending to the Kremlin, to Vladimir Putin, but
Speaker 7: to others as well, other adversaries.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 11: On the positive note, I actually think that Beijing has
Speaker 11: been given more reason for pause when it comes to
Speaker 11: a potential invasion of Taiwan because they have seen the
Speaker 11: way that the West came together, and while certainly there
Speaker 11: are critiques of the slowness with which it happened, I
Speaker 11: think now the fact that it has happened, that we
Speaker 11: do have a model for how we come together as
Speaker 11: a community of democracies and support of the nation that's
Speaker 11: threatened is important nonetheless, And this is where you know,
Speaker 11: when I talk about the post American era, I think
Speaker 11: you need to only look as far as places like India,
Speaker 11: Saudi Arabia, Brazil, not to mention some of you know,
Speaker 11: the other major adversary challenges. And what we're seeing is
Speaker 11: an effort to try and disrupt the old order, to
Speaker 11: take advantage of places where the US and you know,
Speaker 11: our European allies are disengaging, Africa certainly being a big one.
Speaker 11: I worry that we are going to see over the
Speaker 11: coming years efforts that will create more friction. There will
Speaker 11: be more instability, and I think for listeners on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 11: one of the challenges is that crises, global crises will
Speaker 11: become more common. What we're seeing play out right now
Speaker 11: between Armenia and Azerbaijan is only going to multiply.
Speaker 2: This is quite a headline. Brett Bruin in the New
Speaker 2: York Times today, Zelenski tells UN Security Council it's useless.
Speaker 2: Will Russia has a veto when you consider that the
Speaker 2: fact that so many world leaders did not attend the
Speaker 2: UN General Assembly this week She putin mccron, sunak, I
Speaker 2: could keep going here, and that was supposed to advantage
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. When you step back here and look at
Speaker 2: the General Assembly at this point, is it broken?
Speaker 11: I think there are a lot of broken parts and
Speaker 11: pieces in the UN system. It was never perfect, but
Speaker 11: it was designed to prevent the kind of conflicts that
Speaker 11: are now playing out, particularly in Ukraine. And the fact
Speaker 11: that the UN Security Council has been so impeded in
Speaker 11: taking any action, really demands that we look at how
Speaker 11: we come up with new systems, How can we create
Speaker 11: new structures because what we have certainly isn't working. And
Speaker 11: this week up in New York at the UN General
Speaker 11: Assembly has laid bare how irrelevant the UN system has become,
Speaker 11: not just on these conflicts, but even in response to
Speaker 11: the global food crisis, to climate change, to a whole
Speaker 11: host of other challenges. So I think it's incumbent upon
Speaker 11: the democracies of the world to come up with a
Speaker 11: new structure. We need essentially a NATO for democracy. We
Speaker 11: need something that's broader than just a North Atlantic alliance,
Speaker 11: because that's what the challenges of the world demand today.
Speaker 2: I think you just named your calling, Brett. That's going
Speaker 2: to be your next job.
Speaker 11: I'll look forward to it.
Speaker 2: He's the president of the Global Situation When where I'm
Speaker 2: pretty sure he's got his hands full already, Kaylee. I
Speaker 2: could see Brett Ruin leading this Commission for Democracy. It's
Speaker 2: great to have you back. Brett joining us from the
Speaker 2: Global Situation Room as always on Bloomberg Radio. He's not done,
Speaker 2: Zelenski continues the rounds today in the Capitol.
Speaker 7: Yeah, he should be shortly at the White House with
Speaker 7: President Biden.
Speaker 2: Not doing the whole formal arrival today, they're just sitting
Speaker 2: down to meet. We'll have details on that coming up
Speaker 2: as well. I'm Joe Matthew along with Kaylee Lines. Glad
Speaker 2: you're with us on Bloomberg Sound On, on the radio
Speaker 2: and on YouTube, and of course only on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: They've confirmed another in the US Senate nineties six to one.
Speaker 2: How about that for General Randy George, the next Army
Speaker 2: Chief of Staff. And you're saying, what happened to the blockade,
Speaker 2: Well it's still in place. Senator Tommy Tubberville of Alabama,
Speaker 2: still blocking more than three hundred military officer promotions here
Speaker 2: in his seemingly never ending objection to the Pentagon's abortion
Speaker 2: travel policy. I say another because the big one came
Speaker 2: down just a short time ago. Its late yesterday. Actually
Speaker 2: see Q Brown, next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Speaker 2: Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, made this decision to
Speaker 2: bring them to the floor to get around the blockade,
Speaker 2: and spoke about it earlier today.
Speaker 4: These men should have already been confirmed. They should already
Speaker 4: be serving in their new positions. The Senate should not
Speaker 4: have to go through procedural hoops just to please one
Speaker 4: brazen and misguided senator. But this is where we are.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg caught up with that senator earlier this morning outside
Speaker 2: the chamber. Here's Tommy Tuberville.
Speaker 10: Problem is, we've been doing this for seven months. We
Speaker 10: could have been doing a few a week, but they
Speaker 10: refused to do it because they didn't think they were wrong. Well,
Speaker 10: they're dead wrong on this, and so the American people
Speaker 10: on a controversial set like this, of course need to
Speaker 10: have their voice or do their senator in commerce. It
Speaker 10: doesn't need to be dictated from the White House with
Speaker 10: a memo or the Pentagon. So we have a whole
Speaker 10: now still on around three hundred promotions. They need to
Speaker 10: be promoted, but that's up to Humor. If he wants
Speaker 10: to bring them to the floor, we'll confirm.
Speaker 2: Which could take the better part of the rest of
Speaker 2: this year. Based at least on what Democrats are suggesting,
Speaker 2: Tubberville seems to think it would move a little bit
Speaker 2: quicker than that. Let's reassemble the panel for their take.
Speaker 2: John Sidlite's had Trilogy advisors and Lincoln Mitchell political analysts,
Speaker 2: lecturer of the School of International Public Affairs at Columbia University. John, This,
Speaker 2: I guess is setting some sort of precedent. It's what
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer said he didn't want to do and that
Speaker 2: he wouldn't do. But the military does now have at
Speaker 2: least a top commander in the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
Speaker 2: Is it the right move?
Speaker 8: I don't know if it's the right move, Joe. I
Speaker 8: think what this truly comes down to is this two
Speaker 8: different issues I think at play here. One is obviously
Speaker 8: this procedural issue involving abortion right a very, very polarizing
Speaker 8: issue in American politics. But clearly Chuck Schumer had the
Speaker 8: ability to allow for each nominee to be debated, it
Speaker 8: just would have chewed up an enormous amount of time
Speaker 8: on the Senate floor. And so Senator Tuberville exploited Senate
Speaker 8: rules which give great powers to each senator to hold
Speaker 8: up debate to pursue policies that he or she may
Speaker 8: wish to, and as he's I think effectively done. He
Speaker 8: pointed out the fact that Senator Duckworth had done the
Speaker 8: same thing with I think eleven hundred promotions back in
Speaker 8: twenty twenty over the issue of Alexander Vindmann. So Tuberville
Speaker 8: is exercising the leverage that's available to him on this issue.
Speaker 8: But I think there's a larger constitutional issue here that
Speaker 8: I think is more important to the American people, and
Speaker 8: that is can the executive branch unilaterally change legislation that
Speaker 8: affects executive branch policy decisions? So, in this case, a
Speaker 8: Defense department allowing for paid travel for service members to
Speaker 8: have abortions, and that is something that the Senator and
Speaker 8: the House have already voted on in the passion they
Speaker 8: prohibit that. So can the executive branch override congressional legislation
Speaker 8: without the vote of the people. And I think this
Speaker 8: is going to be an important precedent for other very
Speaker 8: polarizing issues in the months and years to come.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what Lincoln Turberville says, just bring
Speaker 2: that policy to the floor. And it's kind of I
Speaker 2: guess it's unknown right now. What would happen you could
Speaker 2: speak to the vote here that just took place, or
Speaker 2: these two confirmations. I know that you are not a
Speaker 2: fan of the Tuberville blockade, and a lot of lawmakers
Speaker 2: get very upset by the way. That's Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 2: who believe this is impacting military readiness and that it's
Speaker 2: the wrong way to make a point on this. But
Speaker 2: does Chuck Schumer have the votes if he actually brought
Speaker 2: it to the floor to defend that policy.
Speaker 12: I think we need to be careful about some of
Speaker 12: the sleight of hand that Tuberville is using here. Abortion
Speaker 12: is not a controversial issue. Access to abortion early in
Speaker 12: the pregancy is opinion that a majority of the Americans support.
Speaker 12: The reason is controversial is because the minority that opposes
Speaker 12: that idea is overrepresented in the US Senate and number
Speaker 12: of state legislatures and in the Supreme Court. So to
Speaker 12: say this is an issue about which Americans, you know,
Speaker 12: are are completely polarized, is a bit misleading. And when
Speaker 12: we should we should remember that if you were to
Speaker 12: go to the floor with this bill, you would have. However,
Speaker 12: it was phrased the House voting a long party line
Speaker 12: saying you should not be able to travel to get
Speaker 12: a portion if you're in the military, and the Senate
Speaker 12: saying you should, and then the President, if possible, vetoing
Speaker 12: it to you know, depending on how on how the
Speaker 12: yes or the nose were phrased. We know that's how
Speaker 12: it would go. We know this is now an issue
Speaker 12: that is essentially a party line issue. The point to
Speaker 12: underscore for Tuberville, and he's right, we could have a
Speaker 12: long debate about every single one of these appointees in
Speaker 12: the Senate could do nothing else. Uh, you know, for
Speaker 12: a party that's happy to shut down the government, maybe
Speaker 12: that works. But the point to underscore for Tuberville and
Speaker 12: anyone who supports them, is that that the position then
Speaker 12: is that the national security United States is less important
Speaker 12: than women in the military being able to have reproductive freedom.
Speaker 12: And look, that's a policy dispute. Not everyone's going to
Speaker 12: see it my way on that. I understand that, but
Speaker 12: that is the position. And you know, the legislative pyrotechnics
Speaker 12: of Chuck Schumer or Tommy Tuberville, or the military or
Speaker 12: the Biden administration has to work around that. But that
Speaker 12: is the position that Tuberville is saying. And again he's
Speaker 12: entitled to have that position. But you know, this is
Speaker 12: from a party that, for as long as I remembered,
Speaker 12: lectured me because I wasn't tough enough on national security
Speaker 12: and didn't care enough. Well, they don't seem to care
Speaker 12: so much either.
Speaker 2: Was the issue of military readiness. There's also the matter
Speaker 2: of military families John who are in many cases are
Speaker 2: living in temporary housing. Their kids didn't start the school
Speaker 2: year the way they were supposed to because they thought
Speaker 2: they were moving. One of the parents in that house
Speaker 2: is not getting an anticipated pay raise because of it.
Speaker 2: This is why people are questioning, I guess the morality,
Speaker 2: if I can use that term of Tuberville's approach, what
Speaker 2: should be said about these military families, just the cost
Speaker 2: of being in the military.
Speaker 8: Unfortunately, they're caught up in the vise of this debate,
Speaker 8: and there's a trade off involved here in every type
Speaker 8: of a decision, whether it comes to policy, legislation, or regulation,
Speaker 8: and there's never going to be a perfect solution. I mean,
Speaker 8: I can't speak for Senator Tuberville as to what the
Speaker 8: impact is on these families and to what extent he
Speaker 8: is sympathetic to their plight, but he clearly feels strong
Speaker 8: enough about this, as do the voters in his state,
Speaker 8: and as do the voters in a number of other
Speaker 8: states whose senators may support him, even as there are
Speaker 8: those that oppose him. So this is the democratic process.
Speaker 8: Sometimes it's ugly, and there are very human consequences to it,
Speaker 8: but this is the price that some lawmakers are willing
Speaker 8: to pay to achieve their objectives.
Speaker 2: Well, that's clear with Tommy Tuberville. I just wonder if
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer just made it less likely for him to
Speaker 2: drop this blockade by putting these votes on the floor.
Speaker 2: We will not know, of course, until he makes that decision,
Speaker 2: if a decision is made. John, thanks for the time today.
Speaker 2: John sidelities at Trilogy Advisors. Lincoln Mitchell stays with us
Speaker 2: for some final thoughts. Straight ahead here on the fastest
Speaker 2: show in politics. You know they found the wreckage of
Speaker 2: that missing F thirty five this week. Now the eyewitnesses
Speaker 2: are coming forward. That's next on sound On Only on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Were still waiting to learn more about this F thirty
Speaker 2: five Stealth Fighter jet that went missing, remember at South
Speaker 2: Carolina after the pilot ejected a couple of days ago.
Speaker 2: Now we told you they did find wreckage from that
Speaker 2: jet in a field that was outside of the area
Speaker 2: they were even looking in. So apparently this thing flew
Speaker 2: for a minute. Still not sure why it wasn't pinging
Speaker 2: anyone or why it was so hard to find. Remember,
Speaker 2: they had to actually put out a phone number to
Speaker 2: ask for the public's help on this, and eyewitnesses are
Speaker 2: now emerging. One woman in Williamsburg County, where the plane
Speaker 2: went down, tells NBC News that she and her family
Speaker 2: they're out there having a little time in the backyard.
Speaker 2: They saw it go almost inverted just before it crashed.
Speaker 2: And Randolph White, also from Williamsburg County, he heard the
Speaker 2: jet when it was going down right over his house.
Speaker 2: He says he was inside shaving and if you ever
Speaker 2: imagine what that sounded like, tried to imagine, Well, imagine
Speaker 2: no longer.
Speaker 1: I heard a screeching, saw that between a screech and
Speaker 1: a whistle.
Speaker 2: I said, what in the will of this? Yeah?
Speaker 5: And boom in my whole house.
Speaker 2: His whole house shook. He says he didn't realize it
Speaker 2: was a plane at the time. I thought it was
Speaker 2: a media rite. So he didn't call anyone. Lincoln Mitchell,
Speaker 2: I don't know how you lose a stealth fighter, but
Speaker 2: with men like that, at least we know what they
Speaker 2: sound like.
Speaker 12: That's right, and that's the beauty of radio. I'm not
Speaker 12: an expert on military aviation. However, I do recall being
Speaker 12: on Bloomberg Radio a few months ago where I was
Speaker 12: asked about UFOs. So I'm not saying anything, but maybe
Speaker 12: we should try to explore that connection. I don't know
Speaker 12: how the military loses an airplane. I'm glad that gentleman
Speaker 12: who was shaving. I hope he didn't cut himself or
Speaker 12: anything like that. I mean there, obviously, I hope everyone's okay.
Speaker 2: I knew I could count on you. Lincoln. I got
Speaker 2: to have you as always. Don't be a stranger. Lincoln
Speaker 2: Mitchell political analyst. He lectures at the School of International
Speaker 2: Public Affairs at Columbia University. And here's a little something
Speaker 2: you might not know. Lincoln writes a substack on baseball
Speaker 2: and politics, and you got to check it out. It's
Speaker 2: called Gobitzing with Lincoln. Of course, how about Randolph White?
Speaker 2: Can we do that again?
Speaker 11: I heard us screeching.
Speaker 8: Between us screech and a whistle.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the sound on podcast. Make sure
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