1
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:07,800
Speaker 1: Broadcasting Live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

2
00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Dwell Honors to San Francisco, Bloomberg

3
00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:17,200
Speaker 1: nine six to the country is EXAM Channel one and

4
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:20,840
Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus and Bloomberg Got

5
00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:26,279
Speaker 1: gom This is Bloomberg Surveillance, The on Wall Street and

6
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,120
Speaker 1: Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. Here's a couple of

7
00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 1: the headlines we're following from companies as we get ready

8
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,480
Speaker 1: for trading on this jobs. Dave Fox Con and Sharp

9
00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,240
Speaker 1: Aiming designed their six billion dollar takeover agreement as early

10
00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,600
Speaker 1: as Monday. They've decided their deal doesn't require major changes

11
00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 1: people familiar, say Golban Sacks will eliminate more than five

12
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,320
Speaker 1: percent of traders and salespeople in its fixed income business.

13
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:48,720
Speaker 1: Bank of America going to dismiss about a hundred and

14
00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,520
Speaker 1: fifty trading and investment banking employees next week. AMC Entertainment

15
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,200
Speaker 1: that's controlled by China's richest man, by the way, agreeing

16
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: to buy Carmike Cinemas one point one billion dollar all

17
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,960
Speaker 1: cash deal, create to the world's largest cinema change and

18
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 1: now Michael Barr has the latest world and national headlines.

19
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 1: Mike Tom, thank you very much. Insults flew as the

20
00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,640
Speaker 1: four Republican presidential candidates took the stage and last night's

21
00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,319
Speaker 1: debate in Detroit, Donald Trump kept referring to Florida Senator

22
00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio as Little Marco. In the end, the candidates

23
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,880
Speaker 1: on Fox News pledged to support Trump if he becomes

24
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,200
Speaker 1: the nominee. I'll support the Republican nominee. Yes, because I

25
00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,560
Speaker 1: gave my word that I would. Sometimes he makes a

26
00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,520
Speaker 1: little bit hard, but I will support whoever is the

27
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 1: Republican nominee for president. The answers, yes, I will. The

28
00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,480
Speaker 1: White House calls that a showdown between heavyweights and the

29
00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,400
Speaker 1: world of computer science. Students from m I T and

30
00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,440
Speaker 1: Britain's University of Cambridge will spend the weekend hacking into

31
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 1: each other's computers. The two schools are competing in a

32
00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:53,480
Speaker 1: hacking contest that President Obama and British Prime Minister Cameron

33
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,560
Speaker 1: announced last year. Among other joint cyber security projects between

34
00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,640
Speaker 1: the two nations. Hundreds of thousands of student will sit

35
00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,640
Speaker 1: down tomorrow to take the S A T, which figures

36
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,440
Speaker 1: into their college at mission Hopes and they'll find that

37
00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,240
Speaker 1: has been redesigned and streamlined. Early reviews from the students

38
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 1: who took it this week say it is shorter on

39
00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,000
Speaker 1: trick questions. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered

40
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,560
Speaker 1: by our two hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty

41
00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,840
Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. Not Michael Barr Night, Tom,

42
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,720
Speaker 1: thank you, Michael, time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports update,

43
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,839
Speaker 1: and that means John Stashower, John, Thanks Mike al Three

44
00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 1: local hockey teams are on the road, and the Islanders

45
00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 1: and Devils both won following similar scripts. Both were trailing

46
00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:37,639
Speaker 1: with a minute to play, tied the game, and then

47
00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,320
Speaker 1: one and over time. The Aisles four three at Winnipeg

48
00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,000
Speaker 1: Kylac posts of the game winner midway through ot after

49
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,440
Speaker 1: Huns League got them there with a half minute to

50
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,640
Speaker 1: go in regulation. Islanders five and one. On the seven

51
00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,919
Speaker 1: game road trip that end Sunday at the Garden against

52
00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:53,520
Speaker 1: the Rangers, Devil's had lost six and seven, never led

53
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,960
Speaker 1: in Nashville until Adam and Reek's game winner at one

54
00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,359
Speaker 1: fifty four after he tied it with forty is left

55
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,160
Speaker 1: in regulation. Devil's won five four Rangers three game Winstree

56
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,560
Speaker 1: ended in Pittsburgh four to one. Penguins scored three times

57
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,320
Speaker 1: in ninety nine seconds late in the second period. The

58
00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 1: Rangers have to come right back tonight and visit league

59
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,239
Speaker 1: leading Washington, and the Blue Shirts have not lost back

60
00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,440
Speaker 1: to back games since December. Golden State Warriors won again

61
00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,680
Speaker 1: last night bete in Oklahoma City. The Warriors are fifty

62
00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,200
Speaker 1: five and five. They've won forty four in a row

63
00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 1: at home in the regular season. That ties the NBA record.

64
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,639
Speaker 1: College basketball, the Metro Atlantic Turney underway and all but

65
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,280
Speaker 1: he with Manhattan advancing. Both Monmouth and Iona, who are

66
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,280
Speaker 1: the top two seeds, will be in action tonight with

67
00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. I'm John Stage, Thank you John.

68
00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,960
Speaker 1: Today is, of course Jobs Day. We're celebrating here at

69
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:45,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Hundred ninety five thousand jobs is the consensus

70
00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,040
Speaker 1: of economists uh we surveyed. A hundred and ninety thousand

71
00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,960
Speaker 1: of those will be private payrolls. Manufacturing perils forecast to

72
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:57,440
Speaker 1: decline by a thousand. Unemployment forecast no change four point

73
00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,800
Speaker 1: nine percent, and earnings up to ten which would keep

74
00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,800
Speaker 1: us on a two and a half percent average hourly

75
00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 1: earnings year over year basis. And that's the number that

76
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,240
Speaker 1: a lot of people will be watching very closely. All

77
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,760
Speaker 1: the jobs numbers coming your way. Eight thirty Wall Street

78
00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 1: Time here on Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning, This is bloom

79
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 1: Meer ser aillansid Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. We

80
00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,400
Speaker 1: are seeing green on the screen, some optimism perhaps about

81
00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 1: the jobs numbers. Although you never can quite tell whether

82
00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,560
Speaker 1: Wall Street things good news is bad news or vice versa.

83
00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 1: But right now, SMP futures are up by three points,

84
00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,840
Speaker 1: about two tents of a percent, same percentage game for

85
00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 1: now evening futures they are up by thirty one points,

86
00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 1: and it's a fourteen point game. For Nasdaq futures they

87
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,919
Speaker 1: are up three tents. We are excited because, of course,

88
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,080
Speaker 1: we have been speaking with Robert Gordon from Northwestern University,

89
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,200
Speaker 1: author of The Rise and Fall of American Growth, also

90
00:04:54,240 --> 00:05:00,080
Speaker 1: a member of the National Zero for Economic Research and

91
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,240
Speaker 1: a cycle dating committee, and as he was telling me

92
00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,000
Speaker 1: just a few moments ago, there's no cycle to date

93
00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,640
Speaker 1: right now, so we're not talking about recession at the moment.

94
00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 1: No committee's meant less often you say that's right, Uh,

95
00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 1: and Alan Krueger are regular jobs today guests of course,

96
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 1: Princeton economists, former Labor Department chief economists, former Treasury Department

97
00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:25,320
Speaker 1: chief economists. The man can't hold a job. He's with

98
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,880
Speaker 1: us as well today. I want to go back to

99
00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,960
Speaker 1: a question that I asked Professor Gordon Allen just before

100
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,359
Speaker 1: we took a break with all the I don't know

101
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,160
Speaker 1: what even what to call the presidential race this year.

102
00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 1: It is so strange, and obviously there is a candidate

103
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,200
Speaker 1: who doesn't seem to be qualified, doesn't understand economics. So

104
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,640
Speaker 1: I asked the professor, and you have you'll have great

105
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,680
Speaker 1: perspective because you were on the inside. How much difference

106
00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,920
Speaker 1: a president can make to the economy. Does the does

107
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,800
Speaker 1: the massive bureaucracy of the United States government levin what

108
00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,200
Speaker 1: a president can do or can be real damage done?

109
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 1: Thank you. I'm of the belief there could be real damage.

110
00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,480
Speaker 1: You know, if you talk about starting a trade war

111
00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:16,760
Speaker 1: with China, disrupting relationships with Mexico, um cutting you know,

112
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,520
Speaker 1: dramatically cutting taxes, blowing up to deficit, um, the way

113
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:27,560
Speaker 1: enforcement works for regulations. I think president can cause a

114
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 1: lot of damage. I'm just wondering though you can say

115
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 1: you want to trade war, you can say you want

116
00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,800
Speaker 1: to deport eleven million people, But is Congress gonna let you?

117
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,039
Speaker 1: Is the bureaucracy gonna let you? Well, not all of

118
00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:46,200
Speaker 1: that requires congressional action. The president has a lot of authority. So, uh,

119
00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,040
Speaker 1: I I really worry for the future given some of

120
00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 1: the alternatives. Well, Professor Gordon, how important are the undocumented

121
00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,839
Speaker 1: immigrants here? There are something like eight million people who

122
00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:01,560
Speaker 1: are out of work who would like work. If you

123
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,240
Speaker 1: deport eleven million, I guess the calculation is about eight

124
00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 1: million of those are in the labor force. Um, can't

125
00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 1: citizens replace those? Well, let's not exaggerate. Uh. We have

126
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,240
Speaker 1: a normal amount of unemployment that it takes uh teenagers

127
00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,960
Speaker 1: to find new jobs. People who are going back and

128
00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,200
Speaker 1: forth to school are account it is unemployed when they're

129
00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,280
Speaker 1: doing routine job search. So it's not that we have

130
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:31,800
Speaker 1: eight million people who are uh desperately unable to find jobs.

131
00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,800
Speaker 1: We have a very high rate of job hiring now,

132
00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,160
Speaker 1: we have very healthy turnover in the labor market. We're

133
00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 1: getting our unemployment right down into the four and a

134
00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,960
Speaker 1: half percent range, which is generally thought to be about

135
00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 1: as low as we can get and stay safe on

136
00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 1: the fed's inflation target. Uh. So, Uh, what we've got

137
00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,840
Speaker 1: is a economy that is already very dependent on those

138
00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,880
Speaker 1: undocumented UH immigrants who are here, and many of whom

139
00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,600
Speaker 1: have been here for years. Go into any restaurant, look

140
00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,760
Speaker 1: at who the cooks are, look at who the weight

141
00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,800
Speaker 1: staff is, look at the people who do the real

142
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,280
Speaker 1: nuts and bolts work of running the American economy, and

143
00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 1: many of them are among those undocumented aliens. We can't

144
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,120
Speaker 1: do without them, and it would be enormously disruptive to

145
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 1: try to suddenly come along and tell them that they

146
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,000
Speaker 1: all have to leave. I think it's totally infeasible. I

147
00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,720
Speaker 1: think that the bureaucracy would simply ignore this, but it

148
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,760
Speaker 1: can make a difference. Uh. And the the idea of

149
00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 1: the manual labor worker, how important is that going to

150
00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 1: be going forward in any economy that we keep hearing

151
00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,840
Speaker 1: is becoming more and more technology and robot driven. Well,

152
00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:48,479
Speaker 1: in a long run, the pattern has been for machinery

153
00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,520
Speaker 1: to replace routine work manual labor, and I think that

154
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 1: will continue. On the other hand, in the near term,

155
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,600
Speaker 1: we're still very dependent on UH. The use of muscle

156
00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:06,200
Speaker 1: in terms of construction, in terms of building our roads houses. Um,

157
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:12,040
Speaker 1: so I think you know, for the foreseeable future, we're

158
00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,960
Speaker 1: still going to be very dependent on manual labor. Does

159
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,440
Speaker 1: the employment report give us any clue as to how

160
00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:23,320
Speaker 1: many people are in that job category and or uh,

161
00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:28,679
Speaker 1: you know, non citizens or the people who would be deported. Uh.

162
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 1: The monthly report doesn't give too much purchase on the

163
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:37,319
Speaker 1: undocumented immigrants, but there are pretty good estimates of how

164
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,320
Speaker 1: many documented workers there are in the US. You know.

165
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,160
Speaker 1: One of the things which has been amazing to me

166
00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,880
Speaker 1: is that we're having this debate at a time when

167
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: net migration to Mexico is negative. We're seeing outflows and

168
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,280
Speaker 1: we have for the past few years, which just as

169
00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,480
Speaker 1: a sign I think of how far off base the

170
00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,640
Speaker 1: discussion has been compared to the reality of what's uh

171
00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 1: driving our economy. Because Gordon, I only have thirty seconds left.

172
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,920
Speaker 1: But what would you say to the people who are

173
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:10,280
Speaker 1: supporting Donald Trump who feel that they don't have a future. Uh,

174
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:14,080
Speaker 1: I would tell them that, uh, we need to have

175
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,720
Speaker 1: a more equal society, not a less equal society. We

176
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 1: don't want to run up deficits by cutting taxes on

177
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,160
Speaker 1: the rich. And we need to have programs that support

178
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,559
Speaker 1: people like them. Uh, they're voting for the wrong person.

179
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,840
Speaker 1: Professor Robert Gordon from Northwestern University, and of course Alan

180
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 1: Krueger from Princeton. Alan will be staying around. We thank

181
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,280
Speaker 1: Professor Gordon for coming in today a treat and again

182
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,559
Speaker 1: his book The Rise and Fall of American Growth definitely

183
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,360
Speaker 1: my book of the year and everybody should check that out.

184
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,959
Speaker 1: It will give you a very good read, good thing.

185
00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,679
Speaker 1: It is not a it's not summertime because it's a

186
00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,199
Speaker 1: little heavy for a beach book. Care I mean, it's

187
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,880
Speaker 1: eight hundred pages. We'll be back here on Bloomberg Surveillance.

188
00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:02,120
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Radio worldwide. Okay, thank you. We are

189
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:03,679
Speaker 1: counting down at the opening bell. Brought to you by

190
00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,920
Speaker 1: the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the most awarded suv ever. The

191
00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,200
Speaker 1: Grand Cherokee continues to raise the bar with its luxurious

192
00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,960
Speaker 1: interior and legendary four by four capability. Drive one at

193
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,439
Speaker 1: your local Jeep dealers today