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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am live from the Tommy John studio here in

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Speaker 1: my hotel room in Oxford, Mississippi. We'll get to that,

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Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, Simon,

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Speaker 1: Hello Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Brother? I'm gonna tell you a quick story.

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Speaker 2: I'm in Oxford.

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Speaker 1: I'm in Oxford because a good buddy of mine. His

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Speaker 1: name is right Thompson, brilliant writer who's been at ESPN

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Speaker 1: for a long time, has written some of the most

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Speaker 1: legendary stories for ESPN, from the Johnny Manzel story to

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Speaker 1: the Tiger Wood story to the Michael Jordan's story. We

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Speaker 1: once together came up with an idea that he would

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Speaker 1: do an entire issue of ESPN the magazine about how

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Speaker 1: sports helped New Orleans heal after Katrina. The ten years

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Speaker 1: after Katrina, He's got a big book coming out called

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Speaker 1: The Barn. It's not about sports, It's about Emmett til

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Speaker 1: the murder of Emmettil here in Mississippi and where Wright

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Speaker 1: is from. So a bunch of us flew down in

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Speaker 1: Mississippi to surprise him for a boat like a mini

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Speaker 1: book party. Right, And we were hanging out at Writes

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Speaker 1: last night. And if you are someone who likes long

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Speaker 1: form storytelling and magazine writing, going back to the GQ

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Speaker 1: Esquire days for an audience that today is ever shrinking,

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Speaker 1: but back then, like it was, you know what you

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Speaker 1: wanted to be and do with your life, which I

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Speaker 1: was lucky enough to get to do in different ways

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Speaker 1: as an editor. It was a great night. A bunch

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Speaker 1: of us were hanging out at Rights, telling old stories whatever.

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Speaker 1: But this is a group that goes pretty hard. And

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Speaker 1: it was late at night when I got back to

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Speaker 1: my hotel. And as you know, I'm basically blind. When

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Speaker 1: I take out my contacts, cannot see a thing. Get

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Speaker 1: to my hotel last night, all the lights are on.

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Speaker 1: And when you get into a hotel, like the night

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Speaker 1: stand lights are on, and they have different switches, and

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Speaker 1: overhead lights have different switches, and hallway lights have switches,

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Speaker 1: and bathrooms have switches. I took out my contacts before

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Speaker 1: I had turned off any of the lights, and I

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Speaker 1: find the switches for everything except one overhead light. The

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Speaker 1: overhead light. Cannot find the switch. I'm looking around, I'd

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Speaker 1: have to feel the walls because I'm totally blind at

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Speaker 1: this point. Cannot find them. I'm hitting every switch. It's

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Speaker 1: just the same hallway bathroom for your lights that keep

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Speaker 1: coming on and off. I'm like, I don't know what

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Speaker 1: to do. I called the front desk. It's not at

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Speaker 1: a time at night where like there's multiple people on

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Speaker 1: the front desk. It's late night, early morning. I called

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Speaker 1: the front desk. I'm like, I got a strange question.

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Speaker 1: I promise you I'm gonna remember this in the morning. Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm not crazy. I cannot find the light switch for

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Speaker 1: my room. Do you have any idea where they keep

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Speaker 1: the light switch for the overhead lights in these rooms?

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Speaker 1: He's like, you mean, like, do I have a map

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Speaker 1: of the electrical of the room. I'm like, I know,

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Speaker 1: it's not ideal. And then I realized he may have

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Speaker 1: thought I was trying to get him up to my

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Speaker 1: room at one o'clock in the morning in the middle

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Speaker 1: of Oxford, Mississippi, and like my creative way of doing

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Speaker 1: it was saying I can't find my light switch. So

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Speaker 1: I said, you know what, I'll figure it out. I

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Speaker 1: hung up the phone, and then I said to myself,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to sleep with the light on all night.

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Speaker 1: You're just gonna have to do it. You can't find

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Speaker 1: the light switch. And then I gave myself a new

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Speaker 1: Rockney speech and I said, nope, I can find this

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Speaker 1: light switch. So once again I felt around every single wall.

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Speaker 1: I hit all the same light switches. I finally found

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Speaker 1: the light switch right next to the thurmishstaff for the room.

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Speaker 1: It looked exactly like the thurmomstaff, so it wasn't entirely

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Speaker 1: on me. I think it's bad design, but I did

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Speaker 1: find the light switch, and I did get to go

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Speaker 1: to sleep.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm with you about the hotel lights. I've been

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Speaker 2: in hotels where are no switches, right, They just assume

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Speaker 2: you touch the lamps and the lamps go off. Now

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Speaker 2: it's yes, that new technology really threw me for a

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Speaker 2: loop because I did the same thing. I had to

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Speaker 2: call it down an ass.

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Speaker 1: But oh my god, so it's not just me.

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Speaker 2: I was waiting for you to say that you hit

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Speaker 2: enough switches that also in your bed started spinning in circles,

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Speaker 2: and it was just like love room.

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Speaker 1: But my bed did me to switch to start spinning.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you that right now. All right, listen,

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Speaker 1: let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: Brother.

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Speaker 1: We got to talk about today is our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: Sign up favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com. As always Simon

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Speaker 1: on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how

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Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's

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Speaker 1: how inside we are. Lines move based in our conversations.

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Speaker 1: The pros feel compelled to weigh in on on our opinions.

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Speaker 1: And we got a lot of calls this week, Simon,

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Speaker 1: let's do it shop.

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Speaker 2: Calls, Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain.

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Speaker 3: Range, telephone range, somebody saying maybe yeah.

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Speaker 2: I would say the pros are feeling really good head

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Speaker 2: end of this week chat. They think that the public

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Speaker 2: is doing exactly what they do every year. Right, they're

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Speaker 2: overreacting to the previous week, and you're getting a lot

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Speaker 2: of value on these lines. And we've seen just since

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Speaker 2: our Tuesday show a lot of movement. Right. So let's

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Speaker 2: start off with the game we loved Denver. We knew

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Speaker 2: that that was a good spot. We knew the pros

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Speaker 2: would like it. That number was going up to three

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Speaker 2: and a half. Now it's down to two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Almost every book, right, Chad, So no shock or there.

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals, the line we loved six six and a half,

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Speaker 2: it's down to five five and a half. A lot

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Speaker 2: of books. Another position that the pros are feeling the

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Speaker 2: same way we do. Right, It's a little bit of

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Speaker 2: an overreaction. We're all worried about Joe Burrow's risks, right.

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Speaker 2: I don't think anyone's overlooking that spot. It just it

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Speaker 2: feels like they weren't as bad as people perceived their

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Speaker 2: previous week. Now this line's moved too much. I'm shocked

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Speaker 2: that this is dipped down to five, just because what

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Speaker 2: we talked about, right, Chad, this is gonna be the

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Speaker 2: most teased game of the week, right, Oh yeah, everyone's

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Speaker 2: teasing this. So pretty shocking that numbers come down so much.

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Speaker 2: Let's keep it going to a game we didn't really

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Speaker 2: talk about. I like the forty nine ers. Every probably

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Speaker 2: talk to. They like Minnesota once again, So they liked

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Speaker 2: them last week against the Giants, they like them again

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Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers team. It's pretty simple, right,

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers historically have struggled in Minnesota. It's a

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Speaker 2: short week, they're on the road to forty nine ers,

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Speaker 2: so I get it. I just think they're overlooking that.

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Speaker 2: You know, this is one of the best defenses in

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Speaker 2: football and the best run blockings teams in football, playing

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Speaker 2: against a team that they overachieved, right against that Giants team,

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Speaker 2: they only really scored twenty one points on offense. Like,

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Speaker 2: I just think people are going a little too crazy

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Speaker 2: with the sam Donal love.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're going deep into that game. I think

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Speaker 1: I'm with you like I'm in love with the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers right now.

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Speaker 2: Another favorite though, that the pros love Chad that we

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Speaker 2: talked a little bit about. We were little unsure of

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Speaker 2: the number. Detroit try. I mean, I've seen this now

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Speaker 2: get up to a couple of books in minus eight.

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Speaker 2: It's gone down back to minus seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: The Pros are not scared about taking that seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. They love detroiting this spot against a banged

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Speaker 2: up Bucks team that I think people are a little

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Speaker 2: overrating them a little bit right because they just played

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Speaker 2: the worst defensive football. Happy for Baker get his flowers

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Speaker 2: for a week. We assume he comes crashing down to

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Speaker 2: earth here. That's what the professions are looking at. We'll

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Speaker 2: keep it really quick here. Panthers, pros love Panthers. No

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Speaker 2: one wants to fucking hear it. I get it. We'll

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Speaker 2: keep it moving off that one. Me and you talk

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Speaker 2: about the Raiders right that number touch ten, it's back

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Speaker 2: down to eight and a half. I'm probably just because

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Speaker 2: I read my Man Evans article. We're probably end up

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Speaker 2: putting them our survival pool, just because the Ravens historically

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Speaker 2: they don't lose in the spot. And the number tells

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Speaker 2: another story of these teams tend to bounce back at

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Speaker 2: home as big favorites, just winning out right, right, we're

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Speaker 2: not talking about spread. So pretty interesting. The pros have

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Speaker 2: coming so heavy. It's back down to eight and a half, which,

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Speaker 2: again we talk all the time. That's a key tease

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Speaker 2: number now, right, So the books you're letting people tease

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Speaker 2: down at two and a half. That's a big deal.

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Speaker 2: So pretty interesting that numbers move so much. Last one again,

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Speaker 2: me and you love and I think I might end

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Speaker 2: up as one of our five. The professionals love green

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Speaker 2: Bay here, Chad, they are loving green Bay. That number

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Speaker 2: was up to three and a half. It is down

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Speaker 2: to two and a half in most books at this point.

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Speaker 2: So it could be because Lafleur left the door open

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Speaker 2: for Jordan Love coming back. I think that's a smoke screen.

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Speaker 2: I think we're really betting this on the floor. This

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Speaker 2: team is a dog against and then consistent Anthony Richardson right,

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Speaker 2: like it kind of feels like I stolen last week.

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Speaker 2: I do feel more comfortable taking Green Bay here. So

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Speaker 2: pretty shocking now the pros have coming so heavy that

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Speaker 2: despite all the public money coming in on this Colts team,

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Speaker 2: it has gone from three and a half down to

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Speaker 2: two and a half Chad acrossing two key numbers.

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Speaker 1: That's uh, We're gonna have to get into it, There's

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Speaker 1: no doubt about it. I will say one thing about

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. You know how much I love Stucky and

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Speaker 1: Raybon on the Action Network podcast and their Sunday six

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Speaker 1: pack that they do that it's live on YouTube Wednesday nights.

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Speaker 1: That's part of the podcast that comes out Thursdays. Stuck.

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Speaker 1: He put the Panthers and he did he put him in,

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Speaker 1: He put him in their six pack. We're not going

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Speaker 1: to do that, I can promise you right now. A

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Speaker 1: couple couple of things to keep in mind, because there

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Speaker 1: are certain trends that I don't want to repeat every

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Speaker 1: single time, but they are applicable to a lot of

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Speaker 1: the games we're going to talk about in weeks one

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Speaker 1: and two. One to five and a half point underdogs

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Speaker 1: seventy seven, forty four and three, sixty four percent since

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. You know, it's four and eight in week one,

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Speaker 1: so should we expect a regression. Probably, there's usually overreaction.

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Speaker 1: It's over reaction week favorites of one to three and

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Speaker 1: a half again, forty three percent in September the past

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Speaker 1: twenty years in the first three weeks forty two percent

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and fourteen, flip side eight and four

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Speaker 1: and week one. So we're definitely going to have some

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Speaker 1: conversation here about the opportunities. Another opportunity to buy low

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Speaker 1: this week. Over the past twenty years, when two winless

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Speaker 1: teams meet, the underdog is sixty six percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: In week two, it's sixty eight percent. If two teams

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Speaker 1: are a winless it almost always makes sense to take

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Speaker 1: the points. This week, it's a couple of teams we

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Speaker 1: talked about, the Giants, the Packers, the Browns, the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: and the Titans, which we talked about the other day.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go. First game up, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about a favorite. I love it, you love it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be in our five Dallas

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Speaker 1: Cowboys six and a half over the Saints.

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Speaker 3: Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart

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Speaker 3: of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary

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Speaker 3: football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it.

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Speaker 1: It's moved six and a half almost immediately. I've been

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Speaker 1: thinking a lot about this game, especially Dak. Dak is

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Speaker 1: a favorite of six or more, thirty one thirteen and

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Speaker 1: one against the spread eighteen and nine. Think about that,

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Speaker 1: thirty one thirteen and one against the spread. That's seventy

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Speaker 1: one percent eighteen and nine since twenty twenty one. It's

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Speaker 1: his spot. And like Dennis Allen, he is, as we know, terrible.

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Speaker 1: He's been an underdog of a field goal or more

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Speaker 1: thirty three times in his career, pulled the upset just

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Speaker 1: five times. That's like Scott Lenahan and Rod Marinelli. That's

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Speaker 1: who his company is. So book it give it to me,

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Speaker 1: don't care Dallas six, six and a half in the contest.

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Speaker 1: We want a favorite, this is one of them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah right there with you, Chad. I love Dallas and

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Speaker 2: you know, some professionals coming on the Saints, and I

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Speaker 2: think the reasoning this sound of just you know, this

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Speaker 2: team got off to a hot start. Who's to say

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Speaker 2: they can't carry this over and they have a new

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Speaker 2: identity coming this season, right, Derek Carr, he's learned a

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Speaker 2: new offense. Maybe he's flourishing in this new offense. My

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Speaker 2: rebuttal is what I think me and you were both thinking, Chad,

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Speaker 2: that was just Carolina, right. They just caught a really

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Speaker 2: bad team there in Week one that was on underprepared

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Speaker 2: and they showed out. I can't say the same for

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Speaker 2: this Dallas team. They're prepared and even reading through Evans article,

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Speaker 2: I mean McCarthy is incredible in Week two, like apparently

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Speaker 2: he's really good at getting his teams up for these

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Speaker 2: early games. So I like the matchup here, and I

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Speaker 2: do think Dallas didn't play that great of a game

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Speaker 2: against the Browns, right. I think there was a lot

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Speaker 2: they could work on this upcoming week for them to

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Speaker 2: grow and get better. And I can't say the same

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Speaker 2: for the Saints, Like you know, they're just gonna be

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Speaker 2: feeling themselves all week. They're just not a team used

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Speaker 2: to hanging fifty points, right, Chad. So this is such

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Speaker 2: a typical letdown spot especially we'll even talk about it.

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Speaker 4: Man.

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Speaker 2: They got real serious flooding going right now. New Orleans.

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Speaker 2: Me and you always talk about this. It's hard to

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Speaker 2: think these players' minds won't be in other places, right,

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Speaker 2: So that's another added thing to this. And then just

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Speaker 2: on the field stuff. I like the matchup right, there's

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Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff offensively this Dallas team could do

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Speaker 2: to attack the Saints defense, and then we flipped the

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Speaker 2: defensive side. The Saints offensive line is better than I

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Speaker 2: gave them credit for a head end of the season,

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Speaker 2: like at a couple unknown guys. I still think on

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Speaker 2: the outside their tackle positions that I mean, the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: should be able to feast. So Derek Carr, we know

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Speaker 2: how he struggles when he's got guys around his feet.

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Speaker 2: He does not like to have push on the outside.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Jeff, this is gonna be our one favorite.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get a second favorite in there. I definitely

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Speaker 2: want it to be Dallas this week. I just love

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Speaker 2: Dallas in the spot. Historically we played dak As these

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Speaker 2: big favorites at home. It's been good to us.

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Speaker 3: They are the Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American

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Speaker 3: Star kiss team.

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Speaker 1: We just talked about the Raiders and the Ravens. A

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Speaker 1: lot of trends to back there. It's moved down. It

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Speaker 1: was nine and a half on Monday. On Tuesday when

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Speaker 1: we did the show, like you said, it got up

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Speaker 1: to ten. Now it's back down to eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Money from the Wives guys clearly coming in on the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to play the Raiders. We're betting the number,

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Speaker 1: not what we've seen on the team, and I have

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Speaker 1: no faith in this team right now, especially in a

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Speaker 1: bounced back spot for the Ravens who are going to

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Speaker 1: be at home, perfect spot for Lamar. Just feels like

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Speaker 1: we're walking into a trap there.

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Speaker 2: And you're not wrong. I think the public has your sentiment, right.

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Speaker 2: I think it's only about ten percent of the money

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Speaker 2: and I don't know, less than twenty percent of the

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Speaker 2: bets right now are on this Raiders team, and for

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Speaker 2: good reason, right the coach let them down. They punted

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Speaker 2: to they took a field goal at fourth and one,

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Speaker 2: and they punted on fourth and one and the Chargers territory.

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Speaker 2: I just think people are a little hesitant now with

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Speaker 2: this team. They're a little unsure. So that's fine, just

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Speaker 2: because I think this is going to be our survivor pick.

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Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, I'm happy went onto them

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Speaker 2: my ten ticket, my nine and a half ticket. If

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Speaker 2: we don't, if this is one ugly dog we're not

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Speaker 2: forcing in, there's a couple other ugly dogs. You are

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Speaker 2: about the forced anyway, So I get your hesitation, But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I do like the raid your side in this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we have so many ugly dogs that we are

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Speaker 1: going to ask people to bet. Just because we're not

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Speaker 1: asking people to bet the Panthers doesn't mean we're not

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Speaker 1: going to ask of people to do horrible, disgusting things.

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Speaker 1: One of those horrible disgusting things. New York Jets currently

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Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites at the Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the Jets the other day. This is

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Speaker 1: an incredible bounce back spot for Aaron Rodgers. There are

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Speaker 1: a lot of reasons to love Aaron Rodgers. Here. After

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Speaker 1: a straight up loss, he's sixty three percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: When it's like a bounce back game happens for Rogers.

351
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Speaker 1: In week two or three, he's six one and one

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Speaker 1: against the spread. But non Rogers trends and this is

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Speaker 1: going to come up a couple of times with games

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Speaker 1: that we like the underdog. Forget about all the other

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Speaker 1: trends that I mentioned at the top, which the Titans fit.

356
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Speaker 1: Teams with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in

357
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Speaker 1: a week are six in Week one are six and

358
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Speaker 1: twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen percent.

359
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Speaker 1: One of those teams, the New York Jets. The Titans

360
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Speaker 1: did not allow an offensive touchdown. The Jets defense was

361
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Speaker 1: on the field for a million plays getting schewed up

362
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Speaker 1: by the Niners, and has a short week. Teams that

363
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Speaker 1: open at plus four or higher at home weeks one

364
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Speaker 1: and two sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years.

365
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Speaker 1: Teams that open plus four are higher at home after

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Speaker 1: losing game one against the spread sixty four percent since

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty. I'm saying, do we bet the Titans here?

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Speaker 2: Now? I wouldn't put them as one of our five.

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Speaker 2: I just I can't get there this Titans team. I

370
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Speaker 2: just have to make questions about the coaching and Will Levis.

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Speaker 2: So everything you just said still true. If you want

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Speaker 2: to fade Rogers, I don't hate it, which I just

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Speaker 2: pretty much broke it down for you. Why you should

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Speaker 2: right their defense? How can they recover in six days

375
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Speaker 2: on a road game when they just played that many

376
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Speaker 2: snaps on defense, and on the flip side, they have

377
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff to work out offensively, right, they

378
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 2: don't really have an identity. But I still think we're

379
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 2: getting a good number here, just because the Jets just

380
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 2: played with maybe the best team in the NFC. Like,

381
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 2: it's just I don't know. I'm still I'm still drinking

382
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 2: the Jets kool aid, and I'm still kind of off

383
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,680
Speaker 2: this Tennessee team. So everything you said there, like everything.

384
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Speaker 2: My body wants me to take Tennessee. But my numbers

385
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 2: say there should be minus four. It's now minus three

386
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Speaker 2: and a half. Technically, I like the Jets, but I'm

387
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Speaker 2: with you. I don't want to put this game, and

388
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Speaker 2: I just I don't only betting Rodgers in you know,

389
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: their offense, even watch going back watching be watching that

390
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 2: four nine Ers game. You know, I don't know if

391
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: a Rogers calling the offense or who's calling their offense,

392
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 2: but the fact that they their mentality was we're gonna

393
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 2: spread out this forty Niners defense and we're gonna wear

394
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 2: them out, running the ball from left to right right.

395
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: They try to get the ball on the outside, try

396
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 2: to get those you know, interior linemen tired, the linebackers tired,

397
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: and every time it was like, Okay, now it's third

398
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: and eight. So it's like, you run it first down,

399
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 2: you run it second down. Now it's third and eight,

400
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 2: and it's I just didn't like how they didn't adjust

401
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,199
Speaker 2: off that where it's just eventually they figured out, oh,

402
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 2: we should just be having rodgers drop back and pass

403
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: the ball the whole time, Like there are holes in

404
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: this defense, none of which are running lanes. So I

405
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 2: totally with you on the hesitation of this Jets team

406
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 2: and the sharp side, the professional side probably is Tennessee

407
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 2: or but I still think it's a good number on

408
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 2: this Jets team.

409
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 1: You're betting the Jets, I bet them.

410
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 2: I took him my minus three and a half. Once

411
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 2: I got to three and a half, I was like,

412
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 2: all right, I'll take this number here. But obviously after

413
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 2: reading Evans article, I didn't feel great about it. Right,

414
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 2: all those trends point to take a Tennessee here. But yeah,

415
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 2: I'm I like the Jets at that number.

416
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll find out later in the show

417
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: if it's one of your biggest bets. No for the

418
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 1: week you just mentioned San Francisco, San Francisco, this number

419
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: has moved, yeah, down from six to five and a half.

420
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: I think we're both a little bit surprised by that

421
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 1: because we love the Niners in this spot. I know

422
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: there are going to be trends now that it's in

423
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 1: that five and a half range that compel you to

424
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 1: bet Minnesota. The professional betters have moved this down. You know,

425
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,360
Speaker 1: I want to get your opinion, but I do think

426
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: there's some data to beck betting Shanahan specifically in this

427
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: spot that for me, overrides some of the other stuff

428
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: that is just more broad about underdogs in this spot.

429
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: But give me your thoughts.

430
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Historically Shannon does well against teams you lost to

431
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,239
Speaker 2: in the previous meeting, and this would classify as one

432
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 2: of those spots. Right, So, I don't feel remember the

433
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,640
Speaker 2: last time they played, it was one of the most

434
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 2: bizarre games ever, right, I think Perdy got can cussed.

435
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 2: It was just a lot going on in that game.

436
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 2: We're here. I mean, this forty nine Ers team just

437
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 2: feels like they're humming. And even that Jets game, we

438
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: even going back watching it, they didn't play that clean,

439
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: like they actually weren't that good as people think they were.

440
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 2: That's how dominant this team is. I mean they go

441
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: how many field goal as they kicked? Right, normally those

442
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 2: are sevens not threes like That's that was probably the

443
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 2: most shocking part to me. And it was just not

444
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 2: in rhythm right. Ayuk had a couple of really bad

445
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 2: drops and just different things like that where the Foreign

446
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: Iris team feels like we didn't really see their best shot.

447
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 2: Just that's how dominant this team is. And we didn't

448
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,719
Speaker 2: even talk about their new DC. I thought he did

449
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 2: really well in his first game against the Jets, and

450
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: it's like even here, I like a lot of the

451
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: matchups that they have on the Foreign Iris team against

452
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: this Vikings team. So I can tell you, Chad though,

453
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 2: from the professional side, they do think that this is

454
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 2: a big deal, right that it's a short week, they're

455
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 2: traveling to Minnesota against a team that the public does

456
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: undervalue that profestionals coming to the season did value, right.

457
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: They liked this Viking seam coming to the season. So

458
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 2: it's definitely a team that I think me and you

459
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 2: both are down on. I still am down on, and

460
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: I think that people overreacting to what happened last week

461
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 2: against the Giants. Right when you really break it down,

462
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 2: we saw one good half from Sam Donald and they

463
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 2: put up what twenty one points against the Giants defense,

464
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 2: which we all think is not gonna be that good

465
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 2: of a defense. So it's just like, okay, I'm not

466
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 2: going to react to that. I still think the forty

467
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 2: nine ers, even without McCaffrey, we still have them putting

468
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 2: up thirty one to twenty eight points here, and I

469
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: don't really see how, you know, Sam Donald in this

470
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: defense puts up more than twenty five twenty six points.

471
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 2: Like for them to get three touchdowns or two touchdowns

472
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: in a field goal, that would be a really good

473
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 2: day for this Vikings offense against this Foreign Aris defense.

474
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: So I think we're getting really good value. Chef. I

475
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 2: make this number seven, the fact that it's down to

476
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: five and a half, crossing that key number of six.

477
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: We love the Niners almost all the time. We love Shanahan.

478
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: A couple of things to think about with up.

479
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 2: To them, because like even this, if they blow them out,

480
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 2: you know the number is going to keep getting exponentially

481
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 2: crazier as the week's going.

482
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's like same as Patrick Mahomes right,

483
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: like Mahomes as a big favorite doesn't have a great

484
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: record against the spread, but that's because the number is

485
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: always so big, because Patrick Mahomes is so special. So

486
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: to me, Shanahan, we've talked about this a lot, one

487
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: of the most special coaches in the NFL.

488
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 2: Because it does make me a little weirried. Where like

489
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 2: this is definitely like the Giants last week, where we're

490
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 2: on heavily on the public side, where the public a

491
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: going against the pros here.

492
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: Don't care, don't care. You know what, It's time for

493
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: time for our big balls. Better the Week presented by

494
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: Tommy John. I was a little muted on that one

495
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 1: because I'm in the hotel. I don't want to freak

496
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: people out. We are going with the Green Bay Packers. Wow,

497
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: green Bay Packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell

498
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: called when we started talking bet it on Tuesday podcast malpractice.

499
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: But look and like the numbers down to two and

500
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 1: a half, so we obviously don't have the best of

501
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: the number. It's at bet three six five to two

502
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 1: and a half. There are all the other places that

503
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: it's at.

504
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 2: Three, So there's a couple three is left right now.

505
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: It was at three and a half when we talked

506
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday. The wise guys have come after it.

507
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: They betted the three, they bet at the two and

508
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: a half. I think a lot of people are thinking

509
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: a couple of things, and we'll get to some of

510
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: the trends, but overall, too much of a swing in

511
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: the point spread from Jordan Love to Malik Willis and

512
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 1: so there's some buyback from the wise guy point of view.

513
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: But what's your take here?

514
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: Honestly, it feels like it was the right amount. I

515
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 2: see it's come down a little bit here because of

516
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: the spot. We're excited about the Colts and what they

517
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: can be and the you know what they're going to

518
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: be this upcoming season. But Green Bay, you know, they're

519
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 2: reviewed as one of the better teams in all football,

520
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 2: and you know, just because they lost Jordan Love, we

521
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: expect will Floor to kind of figure this out on

522
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: the fly, right. I mean, their run blocking was incredible

523
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: against the Eagles. I think that will be able to

524
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: translate against this Colts team that just gave up, you know,

525
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: over one hundred and fifty yards to Houston running right.

526
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 2: So there's a couple of things alike here. But I

527
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 2: think you're right right, the pros they've kind of dug

528
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 2: in here because of Lafour leaving the door open for

529
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 2: love maybe played in this game, right, That to me

530
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: is what the movement is. So me and Chad are

531
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: taking this on the show at two and a half.

532
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,239
Speaker 2: You can grab it if you want, right because there

533
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: are like we just said, we're sponsor here, so we're

534
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 2: giving out that two and a half. There's threes out there.

535
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 2: I'd grab that just just in case on Sunday. If

536
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 2: it's guaranteed that loves out it is, Malik. I think

537
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 2: you agree, right Chad. The public money will come in

538
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: very heavy on this Colds team, so we could get

539
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 2: back that three and a half. The movement here, though,

540
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: is is warranted. It's like that was way too much,

541
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: like Chad just said, And you know, Green Bay they're

542
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 2: gonna be just as desperate as this Colts team, right,

543
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: Like no one wants to start owing too. That's why

544
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: I love these kind of spots. But they're gonna be

545
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 2: desperate at home with a Nobody leaves this mentality and

546
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: you know, open up the action app here. Let's I mean,

547
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 2: I can't even imagine this number is going to be. Yeah,

548
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 2: right now, it's only nineteen percent of the money and

549
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 2: about twenty five percent of the bets right now is

550
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 2: on this Green Bay team. And it's gone from Chad

551
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: just said, from three and a half down to two

552
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 2: and a half. So it's at two at a book

553
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: I'm seeing here. But that's that's pretty crazy that much

554
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: professional money's coming here. So we know we're not getting

555
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 2: the best number giving out two and a half, but

556
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: we talk all the time. Two and a half has

557
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: become such a key number. I feel comfortable taking this

558
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 2: making it our big Balls better of the week.

559
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: Look, we had two and a half. We had two

560
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: and a half with the Colts last week. Yeah, that

561
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: was fun and it worked out just swell, it didn't.

562
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,479
Speaker 1: It wasn't a sweat in any way at all. It

563
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: is our big Balls bet of the Week, presented by

564
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: Tommy John. Like you know, Simon, there's no bigger fan

565
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 1: of Tommy John. And when I am sweating through a

566
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 1: hurricane while trying to figure out what games we want

567
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 1: to bet in this upcoming week so we can try

568
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: to get back to dominance in our Favorites contest, there's

569
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: no better pair of underwear to wear than the most

570
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 1: comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It's the second skin that

571
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: I've always needed. So I can be happy whether I'm podcasting,

572
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 1: whether I'm in terrible meetings talking about something I don't

573
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: want to talk about. Whatever the case, I'm going to

574
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: be comfortable because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. If you

575
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: love Simon or I, if you love this show, you'll

576
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: love Tommy John. Get twenty five percent off your first

577
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:41,400
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578
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.

579
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: Couple things I will say for this game, just to

580
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: sort of give people a little bit more confidence. We've

581
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: seen Action Network coming into the app taken the Packers.

582
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: That's not just me and Simon and talking crazy backups

583
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: in their first start as an underdog past three seasons

584
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent against the spread. The Colts have a

585
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: secondary that is banged up. Couldn't get off the field

586
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: last week. Brentston Buckner did not practice yesterday Wednesday, really

587
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: important practice day. Matt Lafleur, one of the second best

588
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: coach against the spread the past five years. Like the Colts,

589
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: I mean like the Jets. There's another one. The Colts

590
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: only had twenty five minutes of possession last week, does

591
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: not bode well for them against the spread. So we're

592
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: on the Packers another game though that I think you

593
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: and I might disagree on Cleveland at Jacksonville. That number

594
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: has stayed at three and a half. I think the

595
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: wise guys are coming in on Cleveland. You still want

596
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: to fade Cleveland or at least pass on this game.

597
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: Like I think Jacksonville's defense is in trouble. I think

598
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: they also have secondary issues. I think Cleveland's defense has

599
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: something to prove against a Jacksonville team that I don't

600
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,479
Speaker 1: think is as good as the Cowboys. Jacksonville blew a

601
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: big lead, so it's a little bit of a reason

602
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: to like Jacksonville. What's your thought here?

603
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's down to three to couple books if

604
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: you do want to take the Jacksonville just minus three.

605
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 2: But Chad's right, like the pros liked Cleveland here for

606
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 2: a bunch of reasons. Obviously, there's a lot of trends

607
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: that point to taking Cleveland here and fading this Jacksonville team.

608
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: But I'm just looking at on field football stuff and

609
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: when I break down the film, there were so many

610
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: great throws there for Trevor Lawrence, Like he had guys

611
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 2: in good positions and they were open. And I know

612
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: for a fact Doug Peterson's going back and watch it

613
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 2: tape and he's gonna see all that. And you know,

614
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: we talk all the time Cleveland on the road that

615
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: team did not travel last year. We said those trends

616
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 2: don't carry over from here year, right, And we already

617
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 2: saw that Week one, right, they were not that same

618
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: defense Week one at home against that Cowboys team as

619
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: they were last year. I think that, you know, we've

620
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: seen it historically. Jim Schwartz has these years where he

621
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,719
Speaker 2: has an incredible dominant defense and then they fall off

622
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 2: a cliff the following year, right when teams kind of

623
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 2: figure out how to go against his his scheme. And

624
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: right now he's oh for one, And like that really

625
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 2: stands out to me where it's like, I get what

626
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: the pros are seeing here, But I think this Jacks

627
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: team is not as bad as people say, Like even

628
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: Chattier saying their defense didn't play that well. I mean

629
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: it was seventeen to seven midway through the third quarter

630
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 2: against a high powered Miami defense at home, and again

631
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: that could be Miami not being in rhythm, and it

632
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: took them a while to get into rhythm, and eventually

633
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: they did get up to twenty points. Right, So that's

634
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: maybe I am overrating the Shaguars deep. It's a little bit.

635
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: But I love their front four, like I really do,

636
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 2: especially their pass rushing and like they're down to I

637
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: think their fourth string tackle at this point. This Cleveland

638
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 2: team with a guy in Watson. When I watch the tape,

639
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: he has happy feet. He thinks guys were he thought

640
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: guys were around him when they weren't even around him. Right,

641
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: He's getting rid of the ball super fast because he

642
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: thought he was getting pressure and they were actually holding

643
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 2: up pretty well in the pass block. And it's just

644
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 2: everything feels broken with the Browns. Even this week. They're

645
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: not even talking about football, right, They're talking about all

646
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 2: field stuff to these coaches and these other players, about

647
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: Watson dealing with his b So it just feels like

648
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: it's all bad for Cleveland and the pros here. I

649
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: don't know why they're coming in on this one. I

650
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: feel like there's other games they would like better and

651
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: step in this one. So yeah, me and you definitely disagree.

652
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: Chad likes Cleveland three and a half. I'm taking the

653
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: Jaguars at minus three. I just I feel safer and

654
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: happier taking that number where it's just like I could

655
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: see one team getting rolled here and it's not the Jaguars.

656
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: I could see Cleveland getting rolled in this matchup.

657
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: I don't like when we disagree because it leads to

658
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: confusion and dismay makes it harder for us to find

659
00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,959
Speaker 1: the games that we want to put into the contact.

660
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 1: Like when it comes down to it, would we feel

661
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 1: better taking Cleveland at three and a half in the

662
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: contest or green Bay at two and a half?

663
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: Right?

664
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: Those are those could be all right, okay, because that's

665
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: what that's what it'll end up being. Cincinnati, a Kansas city.

666
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: It's down to five and a half. Simon says, he said,

667
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: get it at six. We got a couple of competing

668
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: trends here. Patrick Mahomes is forty eight percent against the spread,

669
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: is more than a field go favorite Casey moved from

670
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: three and a half to six. It's a huge number.

671
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 1: Mahomes is ten and thirteen and two against the spread.

672
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: When the line moves two plus points towards his team.

673
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,479
Speaker 1: But like you said, I think before we came on

674
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: the show, Joe Burrow right now two and seven against

675
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: the spread in his first two games each season hasn't

676
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: won in Week two. We really have to be at

677
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: betting over reaction because the Bengals were so bad and

678
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: the Chiefs were so good. And by the way, this

679
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: is one of our three lunk raking games. It's going

680
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: to be in the contest. We better at six. We're

681
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it.

682
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 2: No, we hate this spot too. We get the people's pushback,

683
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: but we already talked about it. Right. The number eight

684
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 2: just moved too much. And you know, if this is

685
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: four and a half in our contest, maybe we don't

686
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: play it. But if it's five and a half, or

687
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 2: maybe it goes up to six game, we can get

688
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 2: that six and a half. I'd feel so comfortable taking

689
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 2: it at that number. So you basically nailed it. The

690
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 2: biggest thing, too, is I mean, how many times you've

691
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: seen the video of Joe Burrow flex and his wrist,

692
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: Like I've already seen it feels like ten times since

693
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: that game on Sunday, So the public is all in

694
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 2: on fading this team right now, this Bengals team, they

695
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 2: are probably the bottom of the barrel. I'll open the

696
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 2: action app right now and check what the money is.

697
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, so it's less than three percent of the

698
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 2: money right now is on the Bengals. Less than twenty

699
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 2: percent of the ticket is on the Bengals, So they're

700
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 2: they've totally fallen off a cliff, right. I think people

701
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 2: just got burned like we did in our survival pool

702
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 2: by them last week. It's easy to hate them and

703
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: doubt them. And you know, I understand the worry here,

704
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: right because, like we said, the line moved three points

705
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 2: based off really nothing, and people's pushback is, well, it's

706
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 2: moved that much because this Bengals team might be terrible, right.

707
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: Their defense is a lot of new faces. They might

708
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: just be bad compared to the years they were in

709
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 2: the past. And if Joe Burrow isn't one hundred percent,

710
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 2: you know, no T Higgins, you know, Chase doesn't have

711
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 2: the right mindset this This is a I get all

712
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 2: the reasons why people are fading this team and taking

713
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: them homes here, But like me and Chatta Slay say

714
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: all the time, like we're just playing the numbers here

715
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: and trying to not the outside noise really affect this year.

716
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, four and a half. I don't see us

717
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: putting this one in At five and a half. I

718
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 2: could see us having this this game in our five.

719
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: I don't see it getting to four and a half

720
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 1: in the contest, so I think it will definitely be

721
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: one of our fives. There's there's one game I want

722
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: to just touch on quickly because it's moved so much,

723
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: and that is Tampa Bay at Detroit. We really liked Detroit.

724
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 1: We thought that there was a little bit too much

725
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: of an overreaction to what Tampa Bay had done in

726
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: Week one. But Detroit is a dominant team and I

727
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: love how this game matches up. It is moved to

728
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't know if we're going

729
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: to put Detroit in our contest.

730
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: We should have made what's that so we should make

731
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 2: We should have made this our fox hole?

732
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: Well we can we can? Can we can we go back?

733
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 2: Okay, Matt?

734
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: Can we can we change it up? Guys? Did we

735
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 1: already brand it? Can we rebrand it? Someone just tell

736
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: me in the chat. But that's fine. Approved, approved, Approved,

737
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: all right, We're going back to Detroit. Detroit is going

738
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: to be we we love Detroit, and we just feel

739
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: like people are still sleeping on this team. And it

740
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 1: is a dominant team in the trenches. Dominant team in

741
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: the trenches. I don't know how we don't take this.

742
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: I make this number of minus eight, So again, not

743
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 2: crazy value here, but it's more I think even my

744
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: model is underrating this Detroit team vice versa. This Bucks

745
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 2: team has so many injuries on the defensive side. I

746
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 2: just don't see how they get any type of stops.

747
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 2: If they want to run the ball Detroit, I think

748
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: they gotta run it. If they want to pass the ball,

749
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 2: I think they'll go to pass it with ease. Like,

750
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 2: I just don't know how they get the three and

751
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: outs the Detroit team on the flip side of this

752
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 2: Bucks team, man, Like, if you want to put it

753
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 2: all on Baker's shoulder and let them pass it thirty

754
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: forty times, now fields your recipe for disaster. And though

755
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: it worked out against the Commander's team, this is night

756
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: and day. These are two totally different teams. So man,

757
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 2: this is very chalky of us back to back weeks,

758
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 2: especially last week, Right, people think me and Cheat got

759
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 2: a little lucky with that Detroit number, even though they

760
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: were up seventeen to three for about all the games.

761
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 2: But it yeah, like I thought, you know, they had

762
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 2: some rhythm issues last week. I can't see it to

763
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: haveing the same right. Just even even talking about the

764
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: advantages that this Detroit team has offensively, I don't know

765
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 2: any linebackers that can stop Blaporter were last week the

766
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: Rams had a couple of guys that could move around

767
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 2: that could give him some problems, and same go for

768
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 2: this Bucks team. It's like, I get why the public

769
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: is kind of in on them, right because they were

770
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 2: so good against the Commanders team. But this is totally

771
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 2: different scenario. And even when I was looking at last

772
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 2: year's I went back and we watched their playoff game.

773
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: They are a different team, this Detroit team, compared to

774
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 2: what they were last year. They're just that much better

775
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 2: to me, so Chad, so I feel much more confident

776
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: taking this one. I don't mind making this our foxhole

777
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: bet at all.

778
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: Simon, We're in the foxhole.

779
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 4: Let's go, let's climb down into the foxhole.

780
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: Detroit is now our foxhole. I can't remember the last

781
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 1: time we made a more then touchdown favorite one of

782
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 1: our Like Simon says, big bets exec decision foxhole ever,

783
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: but I agree. I feel like Detroit might end up

784
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: being in our final five. Pittsburgh at Denver. This was

785
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: my exec decision because now it's a two and a half,

786
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: you got to get the best of the number it

787
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 1: was at three. Doesn't bother me. This is more about

788
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: the believing that the Broncos will win outright, you know,

789
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:28,760
Speaker 1: money line parlay boost hint by the way, great spot

790
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 1: for them, yeah, at home against a bad quarterback. Terrible

791
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: spot for Mike Tomlin as good as he is as

792
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: a dog on the road, just as bad as a

793
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: favorite on the road thirty two and forty against the

794
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 1: spread as a road favorite when he opens as a

795
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 1: spread of three or higher in his career thirty eight

796
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Also, the Broncos are another their

797
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: luck looking game. I'm not uncomfortable betting them at two

798
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: and a half. Like I'm not. I don't care, Like

799
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 1: doesn't matter to me.

800
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it feels like for Denver this is an

801
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 2: easy game to turn this Pittsburgh team into a one

802
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: dimensional team, right, They're gonna force fields to throw the ball.

803
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 2: I already know how they're gonna do it too, So

804
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: I love that matchup for them, even though we're not

805
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: hearing much about it from people I here that do

806
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 2: work for Pittsburgh. There's a lot of drama behind closed doors, right.

807
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 2: I think Tomlin went to bat for Russell Wilson and

808
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 2: kind of gave him his word that he would be

809
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 2: the guy if he was healthy. He's not, right, they

810
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 2: have to ride justin fields because he did win that

811
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: game last week. So talk about a team that's going

812
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 2: to be filling it and the other side a team

813
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 2: that lost last week in Denver. It's all good, right.

814
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: They feel like that young, happy, fun team. And yes,

815
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: even hearing bon Neecks talk about he knows like I

816
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 2: wouldn't watch the tape, he knows the same thing I'm watching,

817
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: which is he had open guys. If he doesn't get

818
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 2: such happy feet and pull it down and trust his

819
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 2: offensive line, it's bow tie boom like a powder keg

820
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: in your mouth, sucking style. He did have opportunities to

821
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: pass the ball against what we view as gonna be

822
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: one of the better defenses, right. I think Seattle as

823
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: much croof we want to get them. They're not that

824
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 2: terrible defensively, So I'm excited for this Denver team. The

825
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 2: only only knack is me and Chad would have loved,

826
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 2: loved having this three and a half in the contest.

827
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 2: We're not gonna let the two and a half scaret

828
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: us off just like Green Bay. Like I like both

829
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 2: these ugly dogs here, I'm still gonna take Denver the

830
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 2: The public perception though, that you know, this Pittsburgh team,

831
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to travel with this defense, I

832
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: get it, like that doesn't make sense, but I just

833
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 2: think Denver Champagne, they're gonna have something to wear this

834
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 2: defense down, especially come second half. So even if we

835
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 2: get out to a slow start chat with this Denver team,

836
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be worried, right, We're we're gonna trust

837
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 2: the Mile High to eventually eat away at this Pittsburgh defense.

838
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: And I know that they're just gonna spread them out, right,

839
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: like I already talking about, Uh, you know JJ Watt or

840
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 2: t J Watta should say, they're they're gonna just kind

841
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 2: of use him as a dummy, right, They're not gonna

842
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 2: let him dictate this game, which Atlanta they could not do. Right,

843
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 2: they don't have a mobile quarter back. So I'm excited

844
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 2: to see what scho pain is gonna do to counteract

845
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh defense. And we're getting Justin Fields is a

846
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 2: favorite here. People don't overthink it. Take take the dog,

847
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 2: take the two and a half.

848
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: Something everybody knows. You can't say TJ Wat's name out loud.

849
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 1: He's like, it's like saying Marvin Harrison out loud. I

850
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: can't say it right now. We got six games in

851
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: our final five, and I was consumed we weren't going

852
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: to get to any So I feel pretty good. One game.

853
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: I do want to mention and I still want to

854
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 1: get to I want to bring in Evan for some

855
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: you know, self fulfilling prophecies here Atlanta at Philly, like

856
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 1: it is the spot you play Atlanta. I know we

857
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: don't want to. It is a luck rankings game, the

858
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: third of the week. There's only three sides that are

859
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: luck rankings. I know you like the I know you

860
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 1: like the Eagles. The line is ticked up in their direction,

861
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: gives you more of a spot to play the Falcons.

862
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly that we have to put it in,

863
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: but it is a spot you play the Falcons.

864
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, same thing though, Like I took the sixth. Uh,

865
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 2: you know, plenty of professionals are gonna they're gonna come in.

866
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 2: They'll take the six up in Atlanta for good reason though,

867
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: Like Chad just said, it's like this number is too

868
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 2: big for an unproven Eagles defense that's full of young

869
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 2: guys that they couldn't stop anything Gribay was throwing at them, right,

870
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 2: Like Green Bay had guys flying open, and you expect

871
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 2: to have a new defense with a bunch of young guys, right,

872
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 2: There's gonna be a lot of growing pains here. So

873
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 2: I get your standpoint. I don't even think this is

874
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 2: like in my top ten of bets I'm even making

875
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 2: this week. I just I'm with Chad, like I wanted

876
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 2: to be on Atlanta. I just had no read on

877
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins. Even going back and watching that game again,

878
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 2: It's like I didn't even know who that was. That

879
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: was not Kirk Cousins. We all know, like it's just

880
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: it's a big deal whatever's going on with his achilles,

881
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 2: and we don't really know anything about it. Right. That's

882
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 2: the tough part here, is I am in the dark,

883
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: and when I do talk to people on the team.

884
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: They don't really know much either, because they're just not

885
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: really pressing it right. They're they're like, Okay, well we

886
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: know he's not the same old Kirk. They can roll

887
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 2: out the pocket. He's kind of just stuck in the pocket.

888
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 2: But who the Eagles have pressure him, right, that's the

889
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 2: question here. It's like, I don't know if he gos

890
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 2: hav anyone the out outside that could get type of

891
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 2: pressures and give Kirk a problems. So I get your

892
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 2: coming from a really quick game. We didn't touch on

893
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 2: and I didn't mention the sharp calls.

894
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 1: Uh.

895
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 2: The professionals like the Giants, the public likes Washington. I

896
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 2: didn't think I'd even be able to get chat even,

897
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 2: you know, even think about putting the Giants in for

898
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 2: a good reason. But I thought he made a red

899
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: Evans Evans article about how Dabo just owns this Washington

900
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,879
Speaker 2: team in his whole career. Like Daniel Jones is terrible

901
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: against everyone else too, he's great against Washington historically. So

902
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 2: if you want to take a team in that spot,

903
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 2: I am going to end up on the Giants. And

904
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 2: if you hate the number, that's another team. I'd just

905
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: tease up with the Rams, right, just put them into

906
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 2: get them up to eight points. I can't see them

907
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,959
Speaker 2: getting blown out by this Washington team. They just even

908
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: going back and watching Washington's offense, it's so erratic where

909
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 2: it's like they it's still a first read pulled down

910
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 2: for Jaden Daniels, right, That's that's kind of how it

911
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 2: is for these rookie quarterbacks coming into this league. So

912
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 2: this this is as bilow as you can get on

913
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: this Giants team. I talked to two different book makers.

914
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 2: They have no Giants money. It's just all Washington money.

915
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 2: So I do like the Giants in this spot.

916
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: Giants one and a half point, dogs on the road

917
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: at the Commanders. I just didn't bring it up because

918
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 1: I didn't want to discuss people like we're already talking about,

919
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: you know, betting Denver at two and a half.

920
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: Carolina, they got it over. If you're gonna listen to

921
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: their show, we're gonna have we're getting users every week.

922
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 1: But we're talking about betting. Malik Willis, Like we're already

923
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: asking of people, you know, extraordinary things. But look, I

924
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: think right now, like we're talking about Dallas, San Francisco,

925
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 1: Green Bay, Cincy, Detroit, Denver, New York Giants. That's seven games.

926
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: We could potentially choose our five from. So right now,

927
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 1: Simon and you and I will might put in the

928
00:45:56,360 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: picks into favorites dot actionnetwork dot com today just to

929
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 1: lock in some lines. I would say Dallas, San Francisco,

930
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:12,399
Speaker 1: Green Bay you can see, and Denver, but that leaves

931
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 1: Detroit on the outside. Would we do Detroit or San Francisco.

932
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 2: We'll see because I'm looking at it right now that

933
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: the forty just putting down to five. So if that's

934
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 2: four and a half in contest, I mean, forget it right,

935
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 2: that's gonna be. That's gonna be We'll be the suckers

936
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 2: with the Joe. Public will buy on that one. So yeah, yeah,

937
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:31,720
Speaker 2: that's a fair to have them both as coin flips.

938
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 2: But I definitely think it's the number that matters with

939
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 2: that one.

940
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 1: All right, So we definitely think it's gonna be Dallas,

941
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 1: Green Bay, Sincy, and Denver, and then it'll come down

942
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 1: to San Francisco and Detroit. Yeah, okay, got it? All right?

943
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 1: We got to boosted underdog money line parlay because our

944
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 1: sponsors BET three six, five are giving our money line

945
00:46:55,480 --> 00:47:00,720
Speaker 1: underdog parlay and odds boost this season. We asked, they said, yes,

946
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: each week we'll give out a two team money line

947
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: dog parlay Bet three six five. We'll have that highlighted

948
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: on their site all weekend long with boosted odds. We

949
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: loved how many people bet it. Last week. We were

950
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 1: very sorry we couldn't give out the winner with Carolina

951
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 1: and Indianapolis. But look, keep betting it right because the

952
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 1: more listeners who bet these boosts, the more picks we

953
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: can get boosted in the parlay.

954
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 3: Mot Dog blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog blucks mot Dog.

955
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 1: This week will be Denver. I can't believe I'm saying

956
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: this podcast Malpractice and green Bay. Denver and green Bay,

957
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:44,240
Speaker 1: but we should do is going to be our boosted parlay.

958
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 1: Both games are eligible for bet three six five's early

959
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 1: payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as

960
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even

961
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: if they blow the game like the Titans did last week.

962
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 1: If you want to bet this better at bet three

963
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: six five, we should still do them any line underdog

964
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: round robin like the five teams, because people really like that.

965
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 1: Last week. I mean We're definitely put it in Green

966
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 1: Bay and Denver. You know.

967
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 2: You know, I'm making the people put in Carolina. Even

968
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: though I think it's it's dip below two hundred. We

969
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: gave it out at plus two fifty on Tuesday. I

970
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 2: think it's down a plus two hundred now, but still

971
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: love the Panthers in that spot.

972
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 1: Giants.

973
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 2: Let's see if they qualify. Yeah, there's still plus one

974
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: oh five plus one ten, so we can definitely put

975
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 2: them in. Since he now, let me get New England.

976
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: And I know we haven't talked about it much, but

977
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 2: like I gotta get New England in that spot. They

978
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 2: just feel like that Wonkee team that's going to start

979
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 2: two and oh they'll lose every game the rest of

980
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 2: the year.

981
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: Right New England, it's.

982
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 2: Seattle on the road with a bad offensive line. It's

983
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 2: it's kind of hard not to take this number.

984
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: Well, I bet Seattle, So now I feel sick about.

985
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 2: It cold at minus two and a half. I'm trying

986
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 2: to thread a needle here with Green Bay, you know.

987
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 2: So it's like it's making early bets on Sunday night.

988
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 1: Brother, I know I stuck. You likes to say it's

989
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: like catching the Falling Knife Survivor pick. Last week we did.

990
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: We had the Bengals, but we also had Seattle. We

991
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: split it in the Survivor pick pools that we're in,

992
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: so now we're out with one. But we lucked out

993
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: with Seattle. This week. It feels like Baltimore, right.

994
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll do the same thing we're doing too.

995
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: I would take Baltimore. I know people are like, well,

996
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 2: I want to save them for later in the year.

997
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 2: You can roll the dice and be a better man

998
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 2: than me and take the Chargers because this this, this

999
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 2: is a good number for them. But it's like Chad knows,

1000
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: I don't like taking road favorites on the road earlier

1001
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 2: in the year like this, Like I like taking the

1002
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: home the Home Chalk, So yeah, I like I like

1003
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 2: the the Raiders. And if there's another team that really

1004
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 2: pops out, you know, it would have been the Eagles,

1005
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 2: but it's like like the Great Washington or Giants.

1006
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 3: So we.

1007
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 1: Like the Ravens. You said Raiders, and then like people

1008
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: were not the Raiders in our Survivors.

1009
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 2: Who'd put him for a number two? Would you? Who

1010
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: would you go with there? I mean Houston, I.

1011
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: Was I was thinking the chargers.

1012
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, they definitely jump out where It's like, I don't

1013
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 2: know what else we would use them. But yeah, that's god,

1014
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: that's gross.

1015
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 1: I know. That's why I don't want to talk about it.

1016
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 2: I'll put the chargers of my notebook.

1017
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: Then, yeah, I simon give me your biggest bets right now.

1018
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 3: Uh.

1019
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 2: I mean think people already know love Denver, Uh love Sincey,

1020
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 2: especially if you get since he still five and a half.

1021
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 2: Obviously I would preferred you get the six, but the

1022
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 2: Pros just came in and crush that one. You know, Detroit.

1023
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 2: I have a large position on it. Seven seven and

1024
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 2: a half. Wow, I think I think comes Sunday. I've

1025
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 2: been I've been waiting for the Pros to coming on

1026
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 2: the Saints. I'm hoping the Cowboys dip down to five

1027
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 2: and a half because that would be probably my biggest

1028
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 2: bet of the weekend. But right now I have a

1029
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 2: decent amount of six. I'm just really waiting hopefully getting

1030
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: the five and a half.

1031
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: Dude, I got to get out of Mississippi so I

1032
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: can get back to a legal state and fire away

1033
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: on the tricks. I haven't really made any bets on

1034
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: them yet, and now I feel like I've missed it.

1035
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 1: Scoot Roulett. Last week you had Philadelphia minus two and

1036
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 1: a half. Nice job, Simon, really good pick. Chad had

1037
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus four, and I think for you know, thirty

1038
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 1: five minutes it looked like an amazing pick. Who is

1039
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 1: your scout Rouette this week?

1040
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 2: Last week was so chalky? I don't want to go.

1041
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: You know what, I will go chalk again? Can I

1042
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: Can I get Jaguars minus three? Or is that not allowed?

1043
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 1: Of course?

1044
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:31,399
Speaker 2: All right now?

1045
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 1: Fuck?

1046
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 2: Uh no, no, I'm no what I'm not ever thinking.

1047
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: I'm going Cowboys minus six?

1048
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: Can me carey? I'm it. I was about to take

1049
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 1: the Cowboys because you took the Jags. But you know what,

1050
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 1: it's your right as the winner. It's your right. Yeah,

1051
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 1: I guess I have to go with Denver.

1052
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:47,959
Speaker 2: That's good.

1053
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right. We got to get to our friend

1054
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,760
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams before we get out of here, director or research.

1055
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: He's gonna give us the final word and just make

1056
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,720
Speaker 1: us feel better about all the bad things we've done.

1057
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 1: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

1058
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 4: So Simon almost just took the Jaguars as his favorite

1059
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 4: player of the week. So we might as well start

1060
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 4: there and how bad Trevor Lawrence has been lately because

1061
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 4: that was always where we were going to start, so

1062
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 4: perfect timing. Lawrence has actually lost his last six consecutive

1063
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,800
Speaker 4: starts straight up dating back to November of last season,

1064
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 4: including three straight starts straight up as a favorite. The

1065
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 4: issue for him has been second halfs. He's one in

1066
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 4: six second half ats in his last seven, so that

1067
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 4: has been where the game has fallen, apart like last

1068
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 4: week against Miami. But the stat Lawrence is eight and

1069
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,400
Speaker 4: nine straight up as a favorite. He is one of

1070
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 4: eight quarterbacks under five hundred straight up as a favorite

1071
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:44,400
Speaker 4: last twenty years, with the minimum of ten games started

1072
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 4: as a favorite in that role. Now Here are the

1073
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 4: most starts of those eight quarterbacks. Number one is Kerry

1074
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 4: Collins thirty seven starts. He's eighteen and nineteen. Number two

1075
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 4: is Kyler Murray twenty four starts. He's eleven to thirteen.

1076
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 4: He's a favorite this week. Kyler is one in six

1077
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 4: straight up in his last seven is a favorite, and

1078
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 4: number three is Trevor Lawrence. So two of those quarterbacks

1079
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 4: currently favorite on the board this week, so a little

1080
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 4: bit of caution there. Second one we've got. This is

1081
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 4: just a short, short note back to back road games

1082
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 4: to open the air. So Steelers is the one I'm

1083
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 4: using in this example because everyone seems to like the Broncos.

1084
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 4: But Steelers were in Atlanta last week, now in Denver

1085
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 4: for week two. Teams to go road road weeks one

1086
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 4: and two just thirty eight percent straight up since nineteen ninety.

1087
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 4: That is Pittsburgh, Vegas, the Rams, and the Jets this week.

1088
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 4: So just a little bit of a tough road trip

1089
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 4: to open the air for some teams. Now, you guys

1090
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:43,760
Speaker 4: talked about Cincinnati and Mahomes and the whole Bengals chief situation.

1091
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 4: So let me give you two notes here. So last

1092
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 4: week Burrow, obviously we've seen the video million times, hap

1093
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,760
Speaker 4: it didn't look fantastic. One hundred and sixty four passing

1094
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 4: yards and looking into the passing yards, one hundred and

1095
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 4: sixty two air yards on all of his passes, seventh

1096
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 4: fewest of any quarterback in Week one. The issue wasn't

1097
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 4: the pressure. He was only pressured three times, which was

1098
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 4: the second fewest of any quarterback. Now, if you look

1099
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 4: how Burrow bounces back, so he had under two hundred

1100
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 4: passing yards his team's actually averaged twenty nine points per

1101
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 4: game after he throws for under two hundred passing yards

1102
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 4: in his previous game. So if Burrow is right, should

1103
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 4: be a great spot. Now you look at the actual

1104
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 4: number itself, Simon said about five and a half. So

1105
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 4: if he's an underdog of above four points, he's ten

1106
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 4: and two ats in his career. When he's that big

1107
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 4: of a dog with Jamar Chase, he's five and oh

1108
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 4: against the spread, never lost. Now, if Burrow isn't right

1109
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 4: and that risk is an issue, you kind of have

1110
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 4: to turn the tide a little bit and you have

1111
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 4: to assume, Okay, Mahomes is about to face a team

1112
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 4: and a quarterback who isn't right in their own way.

1113
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 4: Mahomes is sixteen and oh straight up at home after

1114
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 4: facing a team who had fewer than two hundred passing

1115
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 4: yards in a previous game. He's just not the guy

1116
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 4: you want to get right against. So depending on how

1117
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:57,879
Speaker 4: you feel about Burrow, should be the way you bet

1118
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 4: the game. Now, finally, I've got to talk about Carolina

1119
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 4: because every podcast and every time we're on the favorites,

1120
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,399
Speaker 4: I'm going to give you a Carolina trend until they cover,

1121
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 4: It's just how we're going to do this. They've been

1122
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 4: a dog in twenty one straight games. They failed to

1123
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 4: cover their not last nine games as a favorite. They

1124
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 4: haven't covered in one as a favorite in three full years.

1125
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 4: Every other team in the NFL has three covers in

1126
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:22,839
Speaker 4: that span. They've actually held a lead of ten points

1127
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 4: or more three times and lost outright in all three

1128
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 4: of those games.

1129
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: Now to tell you why.

1130
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 4: You should be betting them this week, this is just ridiculous.

1131
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 2: They had the worst loss in Week one.

1132
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 4: They lost by thirty seven points in the last twenty years,

1133
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 4: teams to lose by thirty five plus and their dogs

1134
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 4: are four or more fifty eighteen and two seventy four

1135
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 4: percent against this bread. I don't know what to tell

1136
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 4: you but to take points of Carolina. But I will

1137
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 4: see you here next week when they are zero and two.

1138
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 4: I can't wait.

1139
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 1: Listen, Simon, we're gonna have to find a way to

1140
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 1: sneak the Panthers into our five. Even if we're not

1141
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:57,319
Speaker 1: going to talk about it. People will just see it

1142
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 1: pop up in the Action Network app if they the

1143
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: Phase five, and they'll just see, oh my god, they

1144
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 1: bet Carolina. They just didn't talk about it because we

1145
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 1: didn't want to turn people off even more, all right, Evan,

1146
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 1: thank you very much. As a reminder of the Favorites

1147
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and this

1148
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 1: just in New Bed three sixty five, customers now get

1149
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five

1150
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:24,600
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1151
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: in place a bet for five dollars to get two

1152
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1153
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:33,720
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1154
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 1: the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five.

1155
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1156
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1157
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1158
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

1159
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1160
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network You two

1161
00:56:57,000 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 1: page Sunday night, seven thirty pm. Eastern recapping our final

1162
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 1: picks from the contest. In NFL Week two will preview

1163
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:07,959
Speaker 1: the blindes that we like the most in week three.

1164
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 1: Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,

1165
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 1: Levius five stars, say whatever you want, feedback because a gift.

1166
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love You. Action Network reminds you please

1167
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1168
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, Help us available twenty four to seven

1169
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler