1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: I will not mince words. 7 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: This is a required read for anybody inside the Beltway 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 3: this morning. 9 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 2: It is a book from a time ago. 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 3: Paul, you walked around because you were cool, because Douglas 11 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 3: had a book with a sailboat on the cover as 12 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 3: a lightful book that was against the tide, and it 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 3: was absolutely definitive. I read every word of it, and 14 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 3: we're thrilled that Professor Irwin could join us from Dartmouth today. 15 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 3: Let me just get out of the way. Dougarr won 16 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 3: a cup of coffee with a president this morning as 17 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 3: he prepares the State of the Union. What would be 18 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 3: your counsel to President Trump. 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: I don't think you'd want to hear anything i'd have 20 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 4: to say. I'd say the Supreme Court gave him hit 21 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 4: him a favor by trying to put these tariffs on pause. 22 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 4: But of course President has just reimposed these similar tariffs 23 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 4: using different authority, so it had It was a very 24 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 4: important decision. It was a very historic one, but just 25 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 4: shunted the president to using different statutory authorities to levy tariffs, 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 4: and he's going. 27 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 2: To move forward with them. 28 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 3: Will we see a legal battle of these new tariffs, 29 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 3: Claudia Sum, it's away from her remit, which is monetary economics. 30 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: But Professor Irwin, do you just assume further legal battles 31 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 3: about ten percent or fifteen percent, one twenty whatever, two 32 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 3: thirty this. 33 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot of numbers are being thrown around in 34 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 4: terms of the statutes. Yeah, so the new tariffs, which 35 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 4: are ten percent, he's promised fifteen percent, but they haven't 36 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 4: issued the executive order on that quite yet. Those will 37 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 4: probably be subject to legal challenge. And that's because the 38 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 4: statute allows for the president to impose tariffs in the 39 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 4: cases of a balance of payments, deficit or disequilibrium, and 40 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: it's not clear that in an era of floating exchange grades, 41 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 4: whether it's actually a thing exists anymore. 42 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 2: Now. 43 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 4: The other side is that the terroffs can only be 44 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 4: in effect for one hundred and fifty days and then 45 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 4: it require congressional approval. So there's a lot of uncertainty 46 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 4: about how this is going to play out over the next. 47 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 2: Couple of months. 48 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 5: Professor I guess most of our viewing and listening to 49 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 5: audience what they know about teriffs they've learned over the 50 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 5: last six, seven, eight years, which is just massive tariffs 51 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 5: on all types of countries, all types of products across 52 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 5: the board. But typically, how are tariffs historically used and 53 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 5: how can they be most useful? 54 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 4: Well, that's really why this administration marks such a sharp 55 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 4: break from what we've seen in terms of historical experience. 56 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 4: You know, you've probably mentioned smooth Holly on the air 57 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: over the past couple of years. Before that actually smoothly itself. 58 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 4: Congress determined tariffs. It's part of the legislative power of 59 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: tax It's in Article one, section eight of the Constant. 60 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 4: It was basically Congress's decision. 61 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: What to do. 62 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 4: Then powers began, delegate began being delegated to the president, 63 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 4: and we entered the era after World War Two of 64 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 4: the president negotiating trade rooms to reduce terifts and the 65 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 4: tariffs have been sort of on a one way path 66 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 4: down since World War Two. And that's when entered Trump 67 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 4: and also when they start and that same authority starts 68 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 4: being used to increase terrans once again across different products, 69 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 4: across different countries in all manner of way. 70 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 2: Worldwide and across the nation. 71 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: This morning, Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College, he is our 72 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 3: definitive expert on trade only standing with him as Barry 73 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: Ke and Green of Berkeley, we'll get professor I can 74 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 3: agree on in a bid out with his new book, 75 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney with Professor Irwin. 76 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 5: Professor, we had the New York Fed come out with 77 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 5: a report, I guess a week or so ago that said, 78 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 5: you know, ninety percent issue of the tariffs have been 79 00:03:55,760 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 5: born by the American economy, either importers, companies, and even consumers. 80 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 5: Obviously the White House pushing back on that. Who pays 81 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 5: Who pays really at the end of the day for tariffs. 82 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 4: Well, the importer in the US actually writes the check, 83 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 4: but then they pass it on to whoever they're selling 84 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 4: the products to, and it sort of goes a lot 85 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 4: of the value chain. That Federal Reserve, that FED study, 86 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 4: it's been sort of erupted that finding that ninety percent 87 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: of the terrorists get passed through to domestic purchasers. Either 88 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 4: final consumers or businesses along the way. That's been confirmed 89 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 4: by you know, at least half a dozen other studies. 90 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 4: So study after study has sort of consistently shown that 91 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 4: both for the Trump first term tariffs as well as 92 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 4: these most recent lines. 93 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 3: Medlon Marshall has a fabulous video out at the Wall 94 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 3: Street Journal. I put it out about a week ago, folks. 95 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 3: I'll redo that with the academic input of Douglas Irwin. 96 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 3: Doug Your's three hours of trade policy, revenue restriction, reciprocity. 97 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 3: We're not going to acquisit the end of the interview, 98 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 3: but professor, and they're very chronological, and what I find 99 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 3: interesting is the restriction using high tariffs to restrict the 100 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 3: imports of McKinley in post Civil War America. I mean, 101 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 3: they were all shown the door in the voting in 102 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 3: eighteen ninety. The Republicans, including McKinley, basically lost their jobs. 103 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 3: Do you anticipate that in November a McKinley eighteen ninety 104 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 3: kind of vote by America. 105 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: Well, that's a very interesting historical observation, and you're right 106 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 4: it does have some residents for today. So I mentioned 107 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 4: the new statutory authority that the President's levied these tariffs. 108 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 4: After one hundred and fifty days, he might have to 109 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 4: ask Congress to re up those tariffs. Does Congress want 110 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 4: to vote for higher tariffs in the summer before midterm elections, 111 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 4: when Republicans are already divided over trade policy? I don't 112 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 4: think so. So it leads into the affordability AGCA in prices, 113 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 4: and so I think tariffs could be toxic come this fall. 114 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,559 Speaker 3: What should China do? There's a lot of the press 115 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: today about how China responds. I guess the president is 116 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 3: going to Maybe Doug Irwin's going to carry the President's 117 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 3: luggage to China. 118 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 6: Could do that. 119 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 2: I can see it. 120 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 3: He could stay in Hong Kong and Shanghai rather at 121 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 3: the Piece hotel where Henry Kissinger state yep, I mean 122 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 3: it could do that. Professor Irwin, if you were to 123 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 3: go to China with the president, how do you discuss 124 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 3: this with Beijing and how do they respond? 125 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 7: Well? 126 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 4: I think what Beijing is looking for is stability in 127 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 4: the bilateral relationship, and that's exactly what we don't have 128 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 4: at the moment. 129 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 5: Now. 130 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 4: We do have special tariffs on China under a different 131 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 4: provision of trade law, and those can be subject to negotiation, 132 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 4: but we're sort of in this uneasy truce with Beijing 133 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 4: about they're not going to restrict rare earths and we're 134 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 4: not going to impose further tariffs. How we move out 135 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 4: of that remains to be seen, and it really depends 136 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 4: on what the administration has in mind. And then Beijing, 137 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 4: I think is holding its cards close to his chest 138 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 4: and probably won't do much until it sees what the 139 00:06:58,360 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 4: administration wants. 140 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 6: Professor. One of the I guess. 141 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 5: The results of the Supreme Court decision last week is 142 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 5: maybe some companies, some individuals may want to get some 143 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 5: rebates of the tariffs that they've incurred in. Just today, 144 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 5: FedEx sues the United States to get full refund of 145 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 5: emergency tarriffs after Supreme Court ruling. 146 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 6: Do we have any idea how that process would work. 147 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 4: We have no idea at the moment. So the administration 148 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 4: has promised that there will be rebates, but they could 149 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: be slow walked, and that's why I think we'll see 150 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 4: lawsuits to try to accelerate the process. It could take 151 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 4: months or even years. Doesn't necessarily have to take that long, 152 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 4: but it's clear the administration is reluctant to give up 153 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 4: that revenue, and no processes identified, at least as far 154 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 4: as I know about what the process will be to 155 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 4: adjudicate all those claims for the revenue that is amounting 156 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 4: to tens of billions of dollars to going back to 157 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 4: American businesses that imported foreign goods. 158 00:07:56,280 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 3: Come on, Blache Flower is gonna say, dougg Ruin, David Armth, 159 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: just print more debt. I mean, do we need that revenue? 160 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 3: I mean, I haven't seen a clear case that we must, must, 161 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 3: must have the revenue. The first of your. 162 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 4: Three rs, Well, you're right that the Trump administration has 163 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 4: used all three of those ours, and revenue has been 164 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 4: an important one. And they certainly made the case on 165 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,239 Speaker 4: for the tariffs on the revenue grounds. But they're legally 166 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 4: obligated I think to turn it back. But the question 167 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 4: is it's not a matter of government have the money, 168 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 4: but can they go back through the records and isolate 169 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 4: those who those firms that actually paid the tariffs in 170 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:38,079 Speaker 4: the first place. 171 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 3: The continuum of your against the tide, folks, I can't 172 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,319 Speaker 3: emphasize enough. It was like Daniel Jurgen's surprise. Even if 173 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: you didn't read it, you walked around with it because 174 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 3: it was cool. 175 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 2: You had to be cool. So Dougrans against the tides. 176 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 3: The absolute foundation of your book is Robert Solo. 177 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 2: Technology. 178 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 3: Technology comes to the rescue is America expands and that 179 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 3: do you just assume our international trade tensions, Doug Irwin 180 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 3: will get fixed by further technology leadership in America. 181 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 4: I think the two are interrelated. I think that the 182 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 4: US leadership in technology and other matters gets disrupted with 183 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 4: all these trade frictions across countries and the tariffs that 184 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 4: are going up and down and can change on a whim. So, 185 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 4: you know, trade disrupts that process of spreading technology around 186 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 4: the world. It inhibits our ability to export to other 187 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 4: countries because there's implicit retaliation against the US, and it 188 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 4: disrupts all the business relationships that are needed to provide 189 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 4: the funds for more R and D. So it's not 190 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 4: good for our technological development. But at the same time, 191 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 4: technology does march to its own drama to some extent 192 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 4: and will continue to move forward regardless of what is 193 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 4: happening on the trade front. 194 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 5: Professors, is it reasonable to assume that this Supreme Court 195 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 5: decision may embold in Congress to try to reassert some 196 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 5: of it's already over tariff policy. 197 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 4: Well, it certainly was a wake up call, and some 198 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 4: of the justices really did call out Congress and not 199 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 4: so many words, saying you have to step up. It's 200 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 4: really your responsibility under the Constitution to adjudicate an oversee 201 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 4: trade policy. Question is whether they'll do it under this administration. 202 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 4: I think Congress would act with act with great trepidation 203 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 4: in trying to pull back some of the powers it's 204 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 4: delegated to the president. But I think there is a 205 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 4: medium term agenda for future Congresses and future administrations to 206 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 4: write rethink US trade law and ensure that we don't 207 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 4: go through the mess in the model that we've gone 208 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 4: through over the past year. 209 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 5: Professor, is the concept of free trade? Is that still 210 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 5: relevant in today's global economy? 211 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: I think it. 212 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 4: Always remains relevant to some extent. Now, free trade doesn't 213 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 4: mean absolutely no barriers and no interventions whatsoever, but I 214 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 4: think we do have to distinguish and former Vice President 215 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 4: Mike Pence has sort of made this clear that between 216 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 4: you know, what he's called for is free trade with 217 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 4: free nations, and we have to think about trade as 218 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 4: part of our alliance system as a way of working 219 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 4: with allies and then separating out those countries that are 220 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 4: adversaries and we don't want to treat them the same 221 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 4: in terms of our trade policy, because that's an extension 222 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 4: of our foreign policy. 223 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:16,719 Speaker 2: Oh, this is a really good point here. 224 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 3: We're going to have to leave here in a big 225 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 3: Professor Irwin, but off of your wonderful article and essay, 226 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 3: I should say in the Economist here in the last 227 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 3: couple of days, can you explain while we're going after 228 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 3: Canada and not China. I mean, I know that I 229 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 3: still call them. Governor Kearney from the Bank of England, 230 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 3: Mark Kearney, good morning and everyone up in Ottawa, Doug Irwin. 231 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 3: Why are we going after Canada when we have true 232 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 3: adversaries that we're trading with. 233 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: That's a great question. 234 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 4: Unfortunately I'm giving a talk in Canada about two weeks, 235 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 4: so I don't have to think this through for our 236 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 4: Canadian friends up there. 237 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 2: Careful, you may lose your teeth. 238 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 4: Yes, high sticking off the cocktail the Dartmouth hockey team 239 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 4: about how they prevent such things that from happening. But 240 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 4: you know, I don't know whether it's a personal relationship 241 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 4: that Donald Trump didn't forage with Justin Trudeau, whether there's 242 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 4: some real estate deals that went bad in the past, 243 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 4: whether some other aggrieved parties within the administration that speaking 244 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 4: to the President ill of Canada. 245 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 2: But I agree with you. 246 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 4: In some sense, it just doesn't make sense that here 247 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 4: we've had peaceful, cooperative relations with this great neighbor to 248 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 4: the north of US for so many decades, and yet 249 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 4: we're jeopardizing that with these trade wars. 250 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 3: One final question, I mentioned Davenport, Iowa, the first district 251 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: of Iowa, where the congresswoman is fighting for her life. 252 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 3: What is your counsel to Republican House of Representative types 253 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: on the precipice of losing their seats, what should they 254 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 3: do on trade? 255 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 4: Well, I think they really have to speak their constituents 256 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 4: about how in certain ways they differ from the president. 257 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 4: Once again, in the West farm states, they've been hammered 258 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 4: with foreign retaliation against our agricultural exports. So American farmers 259 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 4: are really suffering, and so they have to offer some 260 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 4: sort of promise that there's a better days ahead in 261 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 4: terms of the ability of the US farmers to export 262 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 4: in other countries. And we're just not seeing it under 263 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 4: this administration. 264 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: Where in God's name is the update to Against the Tide? 265 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly are you smashing off, Dougerwin? 266 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 3: When do we get the next three chapters of Against 267 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 3: the Tide? 268 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 4: I'm not sure, but I've got another book called Free 269 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 4: Trade under Fire. There's any time free trade has been 270 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 4: under fire that one's due for a revision. 271 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 3: Very good, Douglas Irwin, Thank you so much, just wonderful, 272 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 3: generous of your time. 273 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 2: This morning is a Dartmouth stay with us. 274 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 275 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 276 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 277 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: Alplcarclay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business up, or 278 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 279 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 3: This is a really good time to talk to Cam Dawson. 280 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 3: I'm just going to cut to the chase. You're on 281 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 3: the cover of Barons this weekend. They give you lots 282 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 3: of play as they deservedly, as you deserve and they should. 283 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 3: And the question is simply going to be there, is 284 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 3: this the opportunity of a lifetime to reset in a 285 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 3: beleaguered mag seven. 286 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 8: Well, I think that a lot of people have been 287 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 8: considering it that because if you look at the flows 288 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 8: into the software ETF, they've been a record relating that 289 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 8: the dip buyers have been out in force. And I 290 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 8: think that a lot of people are trying to catch 291 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 8: that proverbial falling knife. I think the question is is 292 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 8: or have you seen enough damage to some of these 293 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 8: what were powerful uptrends to start forming into what could 294 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 8: be more distributional kinds of patterns. And I think at 295 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 8: this point we wouldn't be stepping into some of the 296 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 8: areas is like a software necessarily. I think the one 297 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 8: key thing is that a lot of these areas have 298 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 8: been a monolith on the way down. We don't think 299 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 8: that there'll be a monolith on the way up. And 300 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 8: this is where we're starting to sharpen our pencils to 301 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 8: say who are those who will truly be disrupted and 302 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 8: who are those who could actually benefit from this AI. 303 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 5: SMP equal weighted up five to six percent, SMP SPX 304 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 5: actually flat for the year. We don't we rarely see that. 305 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 5: I guess, so that broadening out trade seems to be 306 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 5: a thing so far. 307 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 8: I think the way we would frame it is that 308 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 8: this market has not been risk off, it's been risk swap. Effectively, 309 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 8: we are swapping out of the areas of the market 310 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 8: that we think are AI disrupted into areas that either 311 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 8: benefit from the AI infrastructure or those that cannot be disrupted. 312 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 8: HURT a really great new acronym called HALO from the 313 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 8: Saxo podcast. It stands for high asset low obsolescence. So 314 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 8: people are crowding into areas of the market that they 315 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 8: think cannot be disrupted by AI. The challenges those areas 316 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 8: are higher, higher acid intensity, and lower return on Investigator. 317 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 3: Kiman Dawson with us here the equity markets, right Paul's talking, 318 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 3: I'm using the Bloomberg to really look at the charts 319 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 3: and the technology. 320 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a moment. 321 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 3: But the draw it out on Nasdaq futures Paul back 322 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 3: to November is all of seven percent. 323 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I would have thought it was fifteen or twenty 324 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 5: percent exactly. Can We're pretty much through most of the 325 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 5: earnings so far here. This cycle pretty darn solid. I think, 326 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 5: how do you think, how do you view earnings and 327 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 5: what does the market need to see from this earnings 328 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 5: going forward? 329 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 8: What's fascinating is that, yes, the earnings have been strung. 330 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 8: You've been revising up estimates for four Q. They're coming 331 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 8: in at thirteen percent versus the expected eight percent at 332 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 8: the start of the quarter. If you look at twenty 333 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 8: twenty six numbers, those have been revised higher. You're actually 334 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 8: even revising higher twenty twenty seven numbers, if you can 335 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 8: even believe so. People are expecting thirteen percent this year, 336 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 8: thirteen percent growth next year. But all of the pain 337 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 8: has been coming from the multiple, from the valuation, because 338 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 8: it does appear like this market is not as eager 339 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 8: to extrapolate today's earnings power ever into the future. 340 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: Such An Adelegan out tweeting for Microsoft today he's in 341 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 3: London on regulatory and that'll be their response to these 342 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 3: real sensitivities of AI. Over at Mike Allen over at Axios, 343 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 3: really writing up the tension in the State of the 344 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 3: Union speechs at Washington about artificial intelligence? Can I go 345 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 3: tech with Cam? Sure, Nerd, let's get practice. You're going 346 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 3: to be in Phoenix with me next week? 347 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 4: Right? 348 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 9: Sure? 349 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 2: All nerds? 350 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 3: Phoenix From the CFA Society Kim Dawson and Tom kit Okay, 351 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 3: the price of Microsoft is back to early twenty twenty four. 352 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 3: I don't have a cell signal on weekly climate exponential 353 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 3: moving averages. I don't have a violation of two monthly 354 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 3: units of parabolic sort. 355 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 2: What this means is trends in place, but we really 356 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 2: haven't broken down. Yeah, well that's simple. 357 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 8: Well, I think that that is the key point, which 358 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 8: is that right now within the broader Software index, we 359 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 8: are sitting at exactly the two hundred week moving average, 360 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 8: not two hundred day two hundred week moving average. This 361 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 8: has been such powerful support ever since the low's coming 362 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 8: out of the Great Financial Crisis. Anytime there has been 363 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 8: a whoopsie in markets, we've gotten to that week move 364 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 8: that two hundred week moving average. The question is does 365 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 8: it hold this time? 366 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 3: Alexis Christopher says, Tom lose the technical mamo jumbo. 367 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 2: They'll tip there. 368 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 3: Folks from the pro Cam Dawson is the big mistake 369 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 3: is to only look at daily charts. 370 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 2: The pros look weekly. 371 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 5: Paul sweeing, So Cam's what's screening well for you these days? 372 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 6: Is it? Is it an industry? Is it a factor? 373 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,479 Speaker 6: What's screaming well well? For the last year or so? 374 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 8: My colleague Brian coined the term we have to shore 375 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 8: up the sixty inequity market portfolios, and what that means 376 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 8: is that we didn't want to be over concentrated in 377 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 8: one factor, over concentrated in one style. So if you 378 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 8: rode the growth wave up and you were way overweight growth, 379 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 8: it was a great opportunity to add some more value 380 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 8: into portfolios being a bit more balanced. There add international 381 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 8: into portfolios. Remember the international weight in the Global index, 382 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 8: so that ACQUI index is about thirty percent, which meant 383 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 8: that most of our clients were by definition underweight international, 384 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 8: so there was room to move those allocations higher. So 385 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 8: all that means is that diversification is now a really 386 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 8: good friend. Over the course of effectively the last eighteen. 387 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 3: Months, quickly, do you think the tech companies will finally 388 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 3: grow up and issue normal debt just going to go 389 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 3: out like Google did and billions of dollars of debt? 390 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 8: I mean, I thought that there was a really interesting 391 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 8: note in the ft from Moody's today talking about effectively 392 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 8: how a lot of the tech companies are using some 393 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 8: accounting gimmick it I mean, and you know, being able 394 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 8: to not have things be on the balance sheet that's 395 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 8: typically what we see in late cycles. Ops. You off, 396 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 8: you skate some of the cash flows in order to 397 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 8: make things look better. You do not play tricks with cash. 398 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 8: If everything is awesome. 399 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, and I'll go into detail, folks. 400 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 3: And the wonderful work the f he did in the 401 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 3: last twenty four is on this Kim Dawson, Cameron Dawson, 402 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 3: New Edge. 403 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 2: Wealth, Manage It. Stay with us. 404 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 405 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live 406 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 407 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 408 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 409 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: Joining us now from Washington. 410 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 3: The voice I want to speak to I went to 411 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 3: the State of the Union ones, folks, and basically it's 412 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,360 Speaker 3: a lot of meat and glad ahead and all that, 413 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,719 Speaker 3: but underneath the substance. Nathan Dean, senior US policy analyst, 414 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence. 415 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 2: What's the substance tonight, Nathan? 416 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,239 Speaker 9: So, I think there's three themes that we're telling our 417 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 9: clients to watch out for. The first is geopolitics. And 418 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 9: the reason why this is so important is for everything else. 419 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 9: President Trump says tonight, there's a process, we can work 420 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 9: the process, and there's time to respond. For geopolitics, that 421 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 9: can change in an instance, So obviously keep an eye 422 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 9: on what he says there. 423 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 10: The other is tariffs. He's going to double down on tariffs. 424 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 9: I don't think you're going to see any new information 425 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 9: coming out from Tariff's but he's going to double down, 426 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 9: and he's going to have to look the Supreme Court 427 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 9: in the eye and say, why did you essentially reverse 428 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 9: my AAEPA tariffs. But when it comes to affordability, you know, 429 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 9: we're seeing a lot of headline risks and opportunities. We 430 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 9: don't anticipate a lot of new ideas. Potentially President Trump's 431 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 9: talking about this idea of a new four oh one 432 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 9: K for you know, Americans that don't have employer sponsored programs. 433 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 9: But the thing about headline risk is that for anything 434 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 9: that comes that President Trump says, like cutting credit card 435 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 9: interest rate caps, you know in just at ten percent, 436 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 9: requires an active legislation. 437 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 10: It's going to be very difficult to get through in 438 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 10: an election year. 439 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 3: I have been saying, folks, really off the mic, to 440 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 3: be honest, where is the military and the discussion of Iran. 441 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 3: And there it is Nathan Deane those photographs and that 442 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 3: cover the Washington Post, the chairman of the Joint Chief 443 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 3: of Staff, And the reporting is they're saying, slow down 444 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 3: into this State of the Union tonight, how will the 445 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 3: president address the military and preparations in the Middle East? 446 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 9: So it really comes down to the fact that, you know, 447 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 9: are we going to see what Bloomberg News is reporting 448 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 9: of this limited strike? Are we going to see negotiations 449 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 9: take place on Thursday? I mean that's really I think 450 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 9: the signal that we're looking for. 451 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,360 Speaker 10: You know, we're we're you know, we're we're. 452 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 9: Seeing a lot of what Bloomberg Economics is putting out 453 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 9: on the subject, and either they've just been saying that 454 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 9: like look, you know, we've got a significant number of 455 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 9: assets in the region and they can't stay there forever. 456 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 9: So you know, we're going to look for words. It 457 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 9: essentially says, you know, are we going to offer the 458 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 9: olive branch? 459 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:48,640 Speaker 10: Are we going to. 460 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 9: Try and drive this you know, more of a force, 461 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 9: if you will, to bring people to the table. But again, 462 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 9: you know, this idea of limited strike is really what's 463 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 9: the idea that's floating around Washington at the moment. 464 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 6: Nathan, it is an election year. How to typically do 465 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 6: presidents use this. 466 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 5: State of the Union address during an election year, particularly 467 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 5: when President Trump's approval ratings are lower their Republicans in 468 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 5: the ranks are a little bit concerned about some of 469 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 5: those trends. 470 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 10: Great question. 471 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 9: You know, the State of the Union starting election years 472 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 9: are always campaign speeches, and that's what people should be 473 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 9: thinking of when they watch tonight. 474 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 10: You know, President Trump isn't going to move to the middle. 475 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 9: He's going to try and drive a little bit deeper 476 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 9: in terms of bringing back you know, optimism, if you will, 477 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 9: amongst the Republican Party, because if you look at the 478 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 9: prediction markets, you know, the odds are favoring that the 479 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 9: Democrats are going to take the House and they have 480 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 9: a little bit stronger opportunity of taking the Senate. So 481 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 9: I think you're going to see President Trump come back 482 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 9: to Republican ideas to try and drive optimism amongst the party. 483 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 9: You're not going to see Democrats really, you know, stand 484 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 9: up and clap for the president all that much. It's 485 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 9: going to be very much a partisan speech, and that's 486 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 9: something that we should take in mind when he says 487 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 9: statements like I want to do this, can you get 488 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 9: that through an election year? In a lot of cases, 489 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 9: you know, presidents can't do that. 490 00:23:58,200 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 6: Is there pushback? 491 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 5: I guess the question is what level of pushbacks are 492 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 5: in DC amongst the folks down there about this whole 493 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,360 Speaker 5: tariff policy. It doesn't seem to be polling particularly well. 494 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 5: Yet the President is very adamant aout doubling down, tripling down. 495 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 9: So it's not really there's much pushback in the way 496 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 9: of just the uneasiness. And the way that the Republicans 497 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 9: are approaching this is they're essentially saying, look, I just 498 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 9: would prefer to talk about something else, you know, because 499 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 9: even though you have the Republicans who are signaling that 500 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 9: they are at ease about tariffs, they're not going to 501 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,360 Speaker 9: push back on the President's certainly during an election year 502 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 9: when they need his support in the primary season. 503 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 10: So you know, maybe after. 504 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 9: The primary seasons, think may you could see additional pushback, 505 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 9: But right now the Republicans are just going to say 506 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 9: hands off. And that's one of the reasons why I 507 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 9: don't think a reconciliation bill can get forward. So when 508 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 9: you hear senators say, I want to codify President Trump's tariffs. 509 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 10: It's just probably not going to happen. 510 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,199 Speaker 3: Nathan, you are more qualified than anyone at Bloomberg to 511 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 3: talk about this. When you go Norris from Harry's Chocolate Shop, 512 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 3: it produe boiler. 513 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: Up, Nathan Deane, can you go up? 514 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 3: And you go across the width of Illinois and all 515 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 3: all of a sudden, there's a river and there's Devenport. 516 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 3: The President asks to speak tonight to Marionette Miller Meeks 517 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 3: of the first District in Iowa. She's fighting for her life. 518 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 3: What does President Trump have to say to Congresswoman Miller 519 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 3: Meeks of Devenport. 520 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 9: It has to be about affordability, and affordability and affordability. 521 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 9: And this is one of the problems for the Republican 522 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 9: Party at the moment, because you're gonna hear President Trump 523 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 9: talk about significant number of ways to cut down costs 524 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 9: for consumer goods, but in the same breath he's embracing tariffs, 525 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 9: which we would argue has an inflationary impact as well. 526 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 10: And so this is really a muddled message. 527 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 9: But President Trump has to essentially tell the American people 528 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 9: that he understands the costs are going up, and when 529 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,439 Speaker 9: his message is essentially said, we're bringing costs down and 530 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 9: inflation is down, it's a difficult. 531 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 10: Message for a lot of people together. 532 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 3: Nathan, we have to go because I have to save 533 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 3: time at the end of this block to point out 534 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 3: to Purdue his number eight ranked in the nation and 535 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 3: Duke is ranked number one. 536 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 2: So we got to move on to get to that. 537 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 2: March madness. Nathan Dean in. 538 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 3: Charge of our boiler up operation in Washington and of 539 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 3: course all of our policy. 540 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 2: Just wonderful to speak to him on this Stay with us. 541 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 542 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 543 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 544 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 545 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:35,439 Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube. 546 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 3: This is going to be another interview of a spectacular 547 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 3: foreign affairs article, but things have changed in the last 548 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 3: twenty four hours. 549 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 2: On the front of the Washington Post. 550 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,479 Speaker 3: On the front of the New York Times, a still 551 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 3: photograph of the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff 552 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 3: looking lonely separate in a part the reporting by different 553 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 3: media is simple. The military pushing am back against Oval 554 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 3: office thoughts of Iran. NaIO Shadlow joins US now a 555 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 3: spectacular foreign affairs issue because sure Mabu Bani, among others. 556 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 3: A great article in Germany Professor Shadlow writing why America 557 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 3: must build a new operating system? How alone is the 558 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 3: President Nada looking at a new operating system? Is he 559 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 3: looks to Tehran? The military seems to be saying slow down. 560 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 7: Well, he's not alone overall in that my article essentially 561 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 7: was an argument about how the global approach to problem 562 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 7: sets has not. 563 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 11: Worked and has. 564 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,159 Speaker 7: Not solved problems, and in a sense Iran is a 565 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 7: good example of that in that for some forty seven 566 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:51,119 Speaker 7: years we've seen the Iranian regime grow in strength, create 567 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 7: regional chaos, kill thousands upon thousands of its own people, 568 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 7: and grow its nuclear program right most importantly for the 569 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 7: United States and for Israel to threaten Israel, our allies 570 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 7: in the region, and potentially the United States that the 571 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 7: Iranian regime has called the Great Satan for many. 572 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 11: Many years. 573 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 7: So it's actually a good example of how global institutions 574 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 7: writ large have not been that successful by their own measure. 575 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 7: In solving some of these key problems. These are difficult problems. 576 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 7: You're not going to necessarily solve all of them. But 577 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 7: even in managing them, the President is now in a 578 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 7: position where he sees that this may be the best 579 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 7: chance ever of finally degrading the Iranian nuclear program right. 580 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 7: For years and years, for decades, other approaches have not worked. 581 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 7: Iran is at its weakest in many, many years, largely 582 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,479 Speaker 7: also because of the June strikes, Operation Midnight Hammer. 583 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 11: But you know now, yeah, he's considering a course. 584 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 7: Of action which he thinks will put the United States, Israel, 585 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 7: and our allies in a better position. The Chairman of 586 00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 7: the Joint Chiefs is right to point out the risks 587 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 7: of military action. There are always risks of military action. 588 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 7: It certainly would not be easy. In US history, all 589 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 7: of the wars that we've been involved with have had 590 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 7: to deal with the political ramifications of war, the need 591 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 7: to stabilize the country, the need to create better political 592 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 7: outcomes than when you went in. So it's not going 593 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 7: to be easy if the President chooses to go. 594 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 6: In Nadia again. 595 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 5: The President and the US has assembled quite the armada 596 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 5: in that. 597 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 2: Part of the world. 598 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 6: We have two carrier strike groups there. 599 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 5: It's a show of force that we've not seen there 600 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,479 Speaker 5: in a very, very long time. What do you think 601 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 5: the views of the Iranians here when they look at 602 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 5: that amount of the force that's been assembled. 603 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 7: I think the Iranian regime says, you know, President Trump 604 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 7: is serious, right, They see the potential for destruction, great 605 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 7: destruction in their country. I think they're taking it seriously. 606 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 7: And I think the President did the right thing by 607 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 7: assembling this this huge strength of military force, the largest 608 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 7: in the region since the two thousand and three, since 609 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 7: the two since two thousand and three. 610 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 11: So I think it's the right course. 611 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 7: You want to show you off your military power to 612 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 7: deter to potentially get the Iranians to come to an agreement. 613 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 7: So far they haven't come an agreement. In some ways, 614 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 7: it's in their hands, right. I mean, the President clearly 615 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 7: wants a negotiated settlement. He wants a settlement that will degrade, 616 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 7: get rid of Iran's nuclear program, degrade its ballistic missiles, 617 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 7: all of those things. 618 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 2: He said, what is the distinction, folks. 619 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 3: Natty's Shadlow with us from the Hudson Institute senior fellow 620 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 3: brilliant article in foreign affairs. What is this distinction that 621 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 3: Nadia between the globalist delusion of Nadia's Shadlow and Ian 622 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 3: Bremer's every nation for itself. 623 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 7: I'm not arguing, you know, I didn't, I didn't need 624 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 7: I need to read Ian's article, but I'm not I mean, 625 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 7: maybe we're not. My argument points out that by its 626 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 7: own measures, the United Nations, for instance, and other global 627 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 7: institutions have not achieved what they said they have wanted 628 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 7: to achieve. Climate is a perfect example. For twenty five 629 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 7: thirty years, climate has been a key focus of this 630 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 7: global group think movement, and yet the numbers aren't there, 631 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 7: So maybe we need to try something new. I'm arguing 632 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 7: that power resides in states. It's a state centric system. 633 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 7: But that's a good thing. It's okay, that's the way 634 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 7: the world works, and if you acknowledge that as a 635 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,719 Speaker 7: starting point, maybe you'll get to better outcomes. 636 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 11: I think others who. 637 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 7: Argue against a state centric approach see it as sort 638 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 7: of a Hobbesian world of everyone fighting against each other. 639 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 7: I'm not arguing that. I just argue that if you 640 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 7: acknowledge that states have power, are the source of power, 641 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 7: and you begin from that, you create a way of 642 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 7: doing things that might lead you to. 643 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 11: A better place. I'm arguing for cooperation. 644 00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 7: You need cooperation, but not necessarily through these hugely bureaucratic institutions. 645 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 7: Work with other like minded countries. And I argue that 646 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 7: it's really important for democracies because we're seeing over and 647 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 7: over again the difficulty of actually getting things done. We 648 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,360 Speaker 7: see this domestically too, and it hurts democracies. It hurts 649 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 7: confidence in the American system. People want to see that 650 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 7: the promises are kept and that outcomes are achieved. So 651 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 7: I'm arguing for a different operating system, meaning a different 652 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 7: approach to solving problems and to going more to a 653 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 7: level where you're approaching things from coalitions of the willing, 654 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 7: smaller scale, beginning at the local and working your way up, 655 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,719 Speaker 7: not beginning from in New York. I think we're all 656 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 7: near New York, not from New York top down, United 657 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 7: Nations top down and solving that way. 658 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 5: So Nadia again, just to fall upon that point, what 659 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 5: is the role of the United Nations of NATO. How 660 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 5: should the US, I guess, operate within that framework or 661 00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 5: is it America first? 662 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 11: Well, NATO is really different. 663 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 7: NATO is a perfect example of the exact type of 664 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 7: multilateral institution of states cooperating. We're cooperating because we basically 665 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 7: agree on the problem sets. We have similar political systems. 666 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 7: We're all democracies almost roughly. Where we've created. Where NATO 667 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 7: has created for a particular reason, and it's a military 668 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 7: alliance that has worked, that has developed real defense capabilities 669 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 7: that we should not throw out. It's really hard to 670 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 7: operate with allies and partners on the ground in a 671 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 7: military way. So NATO is a great example of an 672 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,920 Speaker 7: institution we should work with and through the United Nation 673 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,959 Speaker 7: is a huge, sprawling set of agencies and organizations that 674 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 7: really is far. 675 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 11: Removed from state control. 676 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 7: Fundamentally, states fund it, but it's far removed from from 677 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 7: democracies and from actually being close to what you might 678 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 7: vote for as a citizen. And then get through the United. 679 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 3: Nations, Naddie, we've got to get your back up on 680 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 3: coming out of the Cornell's Soviet Studies combine, which is 681 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 3: world class. We've got to get you back on to 682 00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,879 Speaker 3: get an update on Vladimir Putin. I just really can't 683 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 3: say enough about what they've done in Ithica on Soviet 684 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 3: studies over many, many decades. Nanni is Shadlow in Foreign 685 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,160 Speaker 3: Affairs magazine. The issue is really something. 686 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 687 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 688 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 689 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:37,279 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 690 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 691 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal