1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,279 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,559 Speaker 2: Better than Most, Better than Most, Better than Most. 3 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 4 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 3: We are presented by the Fanduels Sportsbook. It is the 5 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 3: Open Championship in twenty twenty three. We find ourselves in England, 6 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: Royal Liverpool, the Course, diving into it today. 7 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: I'm your host Brendan Glasheen, joined by the. 8 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 3: Co hosts of the Better Golf Podcast, Action Network contributors 9 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 3: Spencer Agyar and Nick Brettwish, who also contributes over at 10 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 3: Win Daily Sports. T Off Sports is where you can 11 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 3: find Spencer on Twitter. Should it still exist by the 12 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: time you listen? Always got to get that in there 13 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: now days Fellas and then sticks Picks Sticks with an 14 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 3: X where you can find Nick on Twitter. 15 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:06,919 Speaker 1: Fellas. 16 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 3: Looking forward to another great week, our last time together 17 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 3: on the Action Network podcast. Wyndham Clark delivered in the 18 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 3: Big Spot in Los Angeles as we get set for 19 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 3: Royal Liverpool, the Course of course in England for the Open. 20 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: Spencer you can go first just a general outlook and 21 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 3: we're going to dive in. Folks to outright markets, top five, 22 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 3: top ten, top thirty, top forty, some head to heads. 23 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: If we get there also a segment on live. 24 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 3: Betting we want to dive into and then some final 25 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 3: bets before we get out of here. But started to 26 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 3: set the scene here Spencer coming into the week. Now 27 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 3: they're at recording Tuesday with the Open starting up Thursday. 28 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 3: Where are you at right now in terms of digesting 29 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: any information we have now getting ready for Thursday? 30 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 4: Yeah? 31 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: I think it's a really interesting course because we have 32 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 2: gotten in the Open Championship rotation twice since two thousand. 33 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 2: Tiger Woods won the title that opening year at eighteen 34 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: under par Rory mclroy was the champion in twenty fourteen 35 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 2: at seventeen under. It's about as star powered as possible. 36 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 2: When looking at the top of the board, I will 37 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 2: say that I don't know if there's a way to 38 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 2: ideally build a model this week since changes have been 39 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 2: made to the track. This was a par seventy two 40 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 2: during those iterations. Now it's a par seventy one. You know, 41 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 2: like all link style courses, the weather lands as the 42 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 2: ultimate decider really when you look at this in any 43 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 2: iteration of how you want to run your model there, 44 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:32,959 Speaker 2: but you're going to get a venue that has out 45 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: of balance everywhere off the tee. It's one of the 46 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 2: reasons we saw maclroy and Woods both play extremely cautiously 47 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: during their respective wins. The wide open conditions are a 48 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,119 Speaker 2: potential issue if the winds do pick up, since there's 49 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 2: no protection from the coast. That's essentially going to be 50 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 2: European golf in a nutshell. But the large green complexes 51 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: land is another weighable commodity to highlight. When you do 52 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,519 Speaker 2: run your numbers, you're going to need three put avoidance 53 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: to bypass mistakes. Scrambling is highly essential for the sand 54 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 2: dunes and the thick rough that will loom at all turns. However, 55 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 2: the one interesting quirk to everything that I've mentioned here 56 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 2: about the property is that the land is extremely flat. 57 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 2: That's not always the case in some of these major championships. 58 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 2: I think that slightly changes the dynamics for approach shots 59 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: and chips from around the green. 60 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 4: None of that. 61 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 2: Necessarily solves the problem from the lack of data that 62 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: we do have at our disposal, But you know, links 63 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 2: golf is highly transferable from location to location. I do 64 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: think that you can weigh it in some corollary sense 65 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 2: on other tracks kind of take those undertone of other 66 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: properties that we've seen historically and that should at least 67 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 2: help to push you in the direction of where you 68 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: can find golfers that should be more likely to succeed 69 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 2: this week. But you know, Brendan, all of that goes 70 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: back to my original point that I talked about. It's 71 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,839 Speaker 2: a weather induced sort of a week to where it's 72 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 2: really difficult to make a decision. And I'm not a 73 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: weather person, like I don't even mean from like the 74 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 2: meteorologist's sense of it, Like, I'm not a person that 75 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 2: is looking at the weather and putting much credence into it. 76 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: This is the one event, or one of the few 77 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,839 Speaker 2: events yearly where it does matter. 78 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: Early in the open. 79 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 3: We should have some heavier gusts Thursday and just I'll 80 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 3: put the weather hat on. 81 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: I'll take that risk. 82 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 3: Pre event rain expected, which could soften up the course. 83 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 3: But wind over the first two days is what we're 84 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 3: looking at right now. But it shouldn't from what we 85 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 3: know now, shouldn't cause a huge disruption in scoring. But again, 86 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 3: as Spencer said, something to monitor. Nick, where are you at? 87 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 3: And as Spencer mentioned, we've got cam Smith in here 88 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 3: who won it last year. You've got all of the 89 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,799 Speaker 3: winners of the Open from twenty seventeen through twenty twenty 90 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 3: one also. 91 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: Featured, as well as some international flavor. 92 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm a spencer. I don't think the weather is 93 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 5: a whole lot to worry about as of now. I 94 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 5: think the weekend that's really where it's gonna get pretty dicey. 95 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 5: Saturday looks rough at the moment, but you got anybody 96 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 5: you're betting, you need to make the cut, So let's 97 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 5: deal with Thursday and Friday first. Overall, I do agree 98 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 5: with I think we will see a little bit more 99 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 5: club down action, but the course was redesigned a little 100 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 5: bit in the years past to make sure that people 101 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 5: do hit driver. It's going to be a par seventy 102 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: one seventy three hundred yards that is plenty long. So 103 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,679 Speaker 5: looking for guys that are accurate off the tee both 104 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 5: with the club down and a driver. Guys that are 105 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 5: just in great ball striking form, and most importantly for me, 106 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 5: people that can scramble. You are going to miss fairways 107 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 5: and regulation. You are going to miss greens and regulation, 108 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 5: especially when the weather kicks up. So I need guys 109 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 5: that can get up avoid the big numbers one pop 110 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 5: par or get out of there with a bogie at worst, 111 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 5: and continue to fight for the weekend. 112 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: And experience matters. 113 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 3: Six of the past eleven winners of the Open Championship 114 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 3: have been thirty five or older, seven of the past eleven. 115 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: Thirty two or older. So it speaks to maturity and. 116 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: Scrambling the out of bounds concept that Spencer just hit on. 117 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 3: So let's dive into some bets. Spencer, from an outright perspective, 118 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 3: who might we be targeting and. 119 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 2: Why I tend to think there's an extremely inconsistent nature 120 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 2: to the board. This week, we Nick and I talk 121 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: a lot about the higher hold percentages. Some of that 122 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,239 Speaker 2: will make these discussion points mute since the values condensed 123 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: in many spots, but I felt like there was unstable 124 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: pricing when comparing different golfers. And if I was to 125 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: use a specific example of this, and this is a 126 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 2: golfer that my model really liked. But you know, you 127 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 2: take a Tommy Fleetwood for an example. Here, it's not 128 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 2: like he's been winning golf tournaments and all of a 129 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 2: sudden he's moved all the way up this board where 130 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 2: he's landing twenty to. 131 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 4: One at the majority of shops. 132 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 2: You know, you can shop around and find better, but 133 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: I've seen him as low as fifteen to one out 134 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: there in the space. So it's a really interesting tournament. 135 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,679 Speaker 2: It's not to say that it's inconceivable that Fleetwood wins, 136 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 2: but there's a lot of golfers like him that have 137 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: gotten credit for their recent results without the victories. And 138 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: then you have the flip of that answer of golfers 139 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 2: that I seem to really like from a long term potential, 140 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: who have shown better win equity over the course of 141 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: you know, years. We don't need to give a specific 142 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 2: timeframe on that that I have now all of a 143 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 2: sudden go from golfers that may have been in the 144 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 2: teams even for earlier majors in the year, and now 145 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, we're talking about twenty five, twenty eight, 146 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 2: thirty to one sort of commodities this week. So you know, 147 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 2: I think two names that really quickly pop up from 148 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 2: that list would be Xander Shockley twenty five to one. 149 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 2: If you shop around, you can find him as high 150 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: as twenty eight to one. Patrick Can't lay at twenty 151 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 2: eight to one would be the second name there. My 152 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: model's always believed in open Championship has been the most 153 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: likely major location for either of those two if they're 154 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 2: going to win at Historically, they were the only two 155 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 2: golfers for me to rank in the top ten for 156 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 2: all six statistics that I ran for the week. Can'tley 157 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: provided an answer of ranking first and expected strokes gain 158 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: total first and par five, Birdier better percentage, and first 159 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 2: in total driving. Xander didn't necessarily have the same upside 160 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: to those stats, but third in recalculated strokes gain and 161 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 2: six and weighted scoring. I just think the market has 162 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 2: overreacted where these two are being priced on the board 163 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 2: because of I guess the general frustration that they've provided 164 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 2: at numbers that have been viewed as being inadequately priced 165 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: with it, and I've been a big proponent with Shockley 166 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 2: and Can't Lay specifically where any time that you get 167 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 2: one of these prices at pretty much any course in 168 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 2: the world that's twenty five to one or higher, there's 169 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 2: typically going to be value on that number. But then 170 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 2: specifically you move them to a venue like this to 171 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 2: where there's short games and some of those intangibles come 172 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 2: into play. 173 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 4: I really like the two of them. I took Tyrol 174 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 4: Hatton at thirty three to one. Last week. 175 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: I did that when I filmed the Gummea with Jason Sobol. 176 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 2: Unfortunately that doesn't help a ton since the number has 177 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: moved after he nearly won the Scottish Open. But I 178 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 2: will say that the recent form of him generating eight 179 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: consecutive top twenty seven finishes is almost scheffler like in 180 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 2: a very cheap way of trying to get that profile. 181 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 2: Four of those results have landed in the top six. 182 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 2: I've said this comment numerous times on various shows that 183 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: I've done, but I remain extremely bullish that a career 184 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 2: altering win is going to be around the corner for him. 185 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 2: I took Max Homa at sixty to one. This was 186 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 2: a golfer that the three of us talked about during 187 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 2: the US Open. When I also grabbed him at thirty 188 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 2: to one, I could argue that an Open championship might 189 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 2: be an even better test for him than what we 190 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: did see at LACC. Like a lot of the hype 191 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 2: stemmed around home as past success at Los Angeles Country 192 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 2: Club for why that number plummeted. 193 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 4: During the US Open. 194 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 2: But I'm not under the belief that his inability in 195 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: majors is as bad as the public would lead you 196 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 2: to believe. Sure, he has sixteen of them on his resume. 197 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 2: None of those have landed inside the top ten. That's 198 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 2: a concern. However, things do start looking much better when 199 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: you remove the opening nine that he had put together. 200 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: You start focusing on only what he's done on his 201 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 2: last seven. Five of those seven would have been made 202 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 2: cuts the thirteenth at the PGA Championship in twenty twenty two. 203 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: That's all of a sudden, the highlight on his resume here. 204 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 2: But you know, Brendon, you talked about this at the 205 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 2: beginning of this segment here when we are talking about 206 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: Wyndham Clark, and Wyndam Clark was one of my favorite 207 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 2: wagers that I had at the US Open. Windham Clark 208 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 2: was a golfer that didn't have anything better or anything 209 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 2: within the top seventy five and six attempts in majors. 210 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 2: I think you have a very similar role file between 211 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: these two golfers, not in the way that they play, 212 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: but in what we've seen from them historically. That Wyndham 213 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 2: Clark is not the same golfer that he was two 214 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 2: years ago, and Max Homa is not the same golfer 215 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 2: that he was two years ago. So I think Homa 216 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 2: has legitimate inequity in this tournament at a price that's overinflated. 217 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 2: And then I did wrap up my card with Jason 218 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 2: Day at one hundred and twenty five to one. I 219 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 2: don't know if Day can win in a major with 220 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 2: the form that he's bringing to the table. That's something 221 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 2: that we can have a discussion about on the back 222 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 2: end of this. But I had him as the most 223 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 2: mispriced player on the board when everything opened on Monday, 224 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 2: at that one hundred and twenty five to one total. 225 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 2: We've seen that number drop at a handful of shops 226 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: into more of that one hundred to one hundred and 227 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 2: ten to one range. If you really shop around and 228 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 2: you have access to certain locations, there are still one 229 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five's that specific spots out there. It 230 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 2: just came down to my model be leaving Day was 231 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: a sixty to one talent in this field. I could 232 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 2: argue that number probably isn't even right because if you 233 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 2: would have played this two and a half months ago, 234 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 2: it's probably in the Ricky Fowler range here. But I 235 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 2: think anything over one hundred to one for Jason Day 236 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 2: with his ability to scramble. And I think this is 237 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 2: where weather and what we actually get here will make 238 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 2: a really significant difference per day if it gets cold, 239 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 2: if it gets overly rainy, if it gets damp conditions. 240 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: As I've always been situations where Day's back starts tightening 241 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 2: up on him. We don't necessarily have that in the 242 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 2: weather forecast right now. I guess the one thing I 243 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 2: would say about the forecast not looking overly bad with 244 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: everything that's going on right now, it's a wide open property. 245 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 2: Fifteen miles per hour here is much worse than fifteen 246 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 2: miles per hour when you have a tree line nature 247 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: of the venue. So I would keep that in mind 248 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 2: when you are running numbers. I don't know if there's 249 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 2: a natural way to build a model until we get 250 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: more information, but yeah, I thought Day at over one 251 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 2: hundred to one was a very intriguing price. 252 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 3: Jason Day at FANDUL currently eighty to one. So that 253 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 3: number has come down, but based on your model, there's 254 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:02,239 Speaker 3: slightly still some value above that sixty to one threshold. 255 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 3: Some other notes to pick off what you just mentioned. 256 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: Can't lay While not great. 257 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 3: Day one at the Scottish Open played well Friday, still. 258 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: Missed the cut. 259 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 3: He's been viable though most of the year, top fifteen 260 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 3: at each of the first three majors this year. 261 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood is someone else you brought up. 262 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 3: Fleetwood has landed two top five finishes in the last 263 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 3: four years, so he's got some. 264 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: Steam here rolling in. Nick. 265 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 3: Where are you at from an outright perspective, and you 266 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 3: can even go down the board as well if you've. 267 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: Got some long shots as well. 268 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 5: Yeah. I tailed Spencer on Jason Day and Maxhoma before 269 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 5: even talking with him, so I'm glad to see that 270 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 5: he is on the same thing. I echo everything that 271 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 5: he said about Max hooma guy finished t twelve last 272 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 5: week at the Scottish Open and lost strokes approach. He 273 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 5: is notoriously a fantastic ball striker, a great scrambler. If 274 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 5: everything could come to fruition, I think we're looking at 275 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 5: a guy that should be priced right around thirty to 276 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 5: forty to one. In addition, I went down the board 277 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 5: a bit to Taylor Gooch at ninety to one. Taylor 278 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 5: Gooch is a guy that checks every single box for me. 279 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 5: He's not quite thirty two years old, Brandon, but if 280 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 5: we can go thirty one years old and eight. 281 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: Months we round, I'll take it. He's old. 282 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 5: He's old enough and does have decent you know. 283 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 3: My hold on, let me let me tell you something 284 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 3: about ah. My dad always said this to me. So 285 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 3: I'm thirty, but my dad says, well, technically, my dad's 286 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 3: such a prick. Technically you're in your thirty first year. 287 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 3: So with that analysis, Boom Gooch is in his thirty 288 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 3: second year of living. 289 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 5: Primed up all right. I love that I got Taylor 290 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 5: Gooch personally listed at sixty eight to one to a 291 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 5: seed ninety to one in the market. I really like 292 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 5: that I didn't really have a lot of edge on 293 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 5: anybody at the top of the board. So the shortest 294 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 5: player that I took was Calm Morikawa at thirty five 295 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 5: to one. Is simply a number grab. I like to 296 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 5: kind of divorce myself from being a fan of these 297 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 5: guys to some people that I usually fade. I never 298 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 5: played Cala Morikawa. In fact, I wrote him up as 299 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 5: the biggest bust on my article at Action Network. But 300 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 5: my numbers say that he should be proper right around 301 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 5: twenty five to twenty eight to one range. So to 302 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 5: get thirty five with a guy of greater than three 303 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 5: percent implied win probability. I had to take a splash there. 304 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 5: I love Tony Finow. I'm surprised Spencer didn't talk about 305 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 5: Tony Fenw. He's always on Tony fen Now. It's a 306 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 5: guy that lights up the Open Championship. Hasn't won a major, 307 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 5: hasn't won here, but he's always done very, very well. 308 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 5: His ball striking's fantastic, his scrambling's fantastic. He is an 309 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 5: excellent driver of the golf ball. He's awesome when he 310 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 5: clubs down. I don't understand why he You know, every 311 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 5: time I bet him, he seems to finish thirtieth to 312 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 5: fiftieth in that range, always a letdown. But sixty to 313 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 5: one out there in the market, I think that number 314 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 5: is too high. I have him priced at thirty eight 315 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 5: to one, so a big perceived edge there. And then 316 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 5: Hadeki Matsuyama. This guy has struggled immensely overseas on these 317 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 5: Open Championships, but everything about this course, if the weather 318 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 5: does stay a little bit calm, I think it fits 319 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 5: in nicely, deadly accurate. 320 00:14:59,360 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: Off the tee. 321 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 5: Long irons are really good I like everything about Hideki 322 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 5: here the forum, starting a round into place as long 323 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 5: as he's healthy. I think that's a pretty good number there. 324 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 5: But overall, I think my favorite plays outright right now 325 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 5: are Max Holma, Tony Final and I will probably get 326 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 5: there with Xanderschofflei at twenty eight to one. I think 327 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 5: everything Spencer said about him is dead on. It's one 328 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 5: of my favorite players, so that's more of a fanboy 329 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 5: play for me. But I do have room for one 330 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 5: more pre tournament outright. I'm thinking it's going to be Xander. 331 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 5: But if I had to give you a winner, I 332 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 5: do think this is a week that we see John 333 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 5: Rahm come out, and I hope he starts a little 334 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 5: slow to start, and if I can get a fifteen 335 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 5: to one or so in the live market, that's where 336 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 5: I would be looking at. Is John Ram. 337 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: They're slow out of the gate. 338 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 3: Pre event rom your third favorite at FANDOL twelve to one. 339 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 3: So can you clarify you're in on Mari Kala or 340 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 3: you're not. Mari Kyla won the event in twenty one. 341 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: Yes I am. I'm both in on the outright market. 342 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 5: I'll be fading him everywhere else to me, it was 343 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 5: just a number grab I had values. Much as I 344 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 5: don't like Marikawa as a golfer, I'm not really sure why. 345 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 5: I don't seems like a good guy, great balls striker, 346 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 5: everything like that. It's just a guy that personally maybe 347 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 5: Spencer rubbed off on me. Man he fades him every 348 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 5: single week. And then I was like, you know what, 349 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 5: I'm done too with Morikawa. But yeah, with John Rahm, 350 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 5: he does have that afternoon tea time on Thursday. It 351 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 5: should be a lot windier there in comparison to Thursday morning. 352 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 5: So maybe he goes out, shoots one under and the 353 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 5: leader in the clubhouse five or six, and we can 354 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 5: get a bigger number on John rom That's something that 355 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 5: I'm certainly interested in to go low on Friday morning. 356 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 3: For the audience when they bet the open. The outright market, 357 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 3: of course, is very popular. Spencer, where else might you 358 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 3: be looking what other markets interest you, whether it make 359 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 3: miscut top five or top ten, top thirty, top forty, 360 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 3: et cetera, a round leader, Where might you be looking 361 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 3: for other value for the tournament? 362 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 2: For me, the majority of my exposure of my card, 363 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: I always wanted to land in these head to head 364 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 2: sectors or the placement markets. So you know, obviously we've 365 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 2: talked about a lot of players here, and it's nice 366 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: when you hit an out right that's what the headline 367 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 2: is going to be. The headline will end up being 368 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 2: from this show. At the US Open, Spencer Agyar says, 369 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 2: Windom Clark won at one hundred to one, and you. 370 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: Said a bunch of other shit, but we're gonna take 371 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,880 Speaker 1: the Windom Clark. Yeah, we're awesome, And that's pretty. 372 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 4: That's pretty much what happened with it. 373 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 2: I mean, like it wasn't the I'm you know, I'm 374 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 2: like one of those people where that wasn't the greatest 375 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 2: tournament I've ever had, but all of a sudden, Windom 376 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 2: Clark wins, and it makes it a highly profitable event 377 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 2: for me. But you know, markets and the way that 378 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 2: you want to build your exposure to these cards, it's 379 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,479 Speaker 2: very important to me that I'm doing it in a 380 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 2: in a positive long term ev sense with it. And 381 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 2: you're just not going to be positive long term if 382 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 2: you have all your exposure wrapped up in the outright market. 383 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 2: So I think these placement bets, these head to head wagers, 384 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: you know, these are things for me that I have 385 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 2: a very limited card right now because I would like 386 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 2: to see where this weather moves over the next you know, 387 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 2: let's say not the time stamp this show, but like 388 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 2: the next twenty four hours here, just so we have 389 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 2: some sort of an indication of where certain players. 390 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 4: Are moving, and maybe we can find more of an 391 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 4: edge there. 392 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 2: But I think for a head to head wager, you'll 393 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 2: have to shop around to find it. I thought Max 394 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 2: Homa at plus one zho five over justin Thomas was 395 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 2: at least an intriguing wager to consider. Thomas is going 396 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 2: to be one of those players that has a really 397 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 2: high ceiling a super low floor. With what he's provided recently, 398 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 2: I thought Homas should have been more in the minus 399 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 2: one twenty five range. 400 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 3: So that's flipped right now Home is at minus one forty. 401 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 4: Well there you go. 402 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 2: I mean, we like when Nick and I just did 403 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 2: the show for Links and Locks over here at Action Network, 404 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 2: that number had not moved at the time there. So 405 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 2: that's one of the things about the space where like 406 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 2: when a number gets released, prices moved fast, like you know, 407 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 2: I wrote it in my Rotoballer article, and all of 408 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,919 Speaker 2: a sudden, numbers shift at the end of the day here, 409 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 2: and that's why I think it's really important for everybody 410 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 2: out there make sure that you have the ability to, 411 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 2: no matter how you do it, to build numbers of 412 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 2: your own. I release a model. I try to give 413 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 2: everybody that capability to be able to do that. But 414 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 2: when a number is gone, a number moves very quickly 415 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 2: with it, So I don't like it at that price. 416 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: I thought minus one twenty five should have been the 417 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 2: proper going rate. But I do think Homa in general 418 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 2: is under price in the market. I always like to 419 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 2: try to find fade candidates more than anything, So for 420 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 2: me it would be more of can I find an 421 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 2: opponent against Justin or a player that I want to 422 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 2: take on versus Justin Thomas here didn't necessarily have that. 423 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 2: We'll see how the market moves, and then for some 424 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 2: placement bets that I don't necessarily have in right now, 425 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 2: but I am eyeing on these here. 426 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 4: Well. 427 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 2: I do have this one and Jason Day top ten 428 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 2: seven to one, the ones that I'm kind of on 429 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 2: the fringe fence for that. I'm just trying to see 430 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 2: where the weather ends up landing here. Andrew Putnam plus 431 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 2: two sixty for a top forty over on FanDuel Denny 432 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 2: McCarthy plus one thirty for a top forty over on FanDuel. 433 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 2: I think McCarthy is a really intriguing golfer that I 434 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 2: wanted to find a way to get exposure to him. 435 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 2: I didn't necessarily know in what portion of the market 436 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 2: I wanted to do that. Didn't want to get. 437 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 4: There in the outright sense. 438 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 2: I do think I head to head match up makes sense, 439 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 2: kind of like it here for a top forty for safety, 440 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: and then I will I'll double down on the Tony 441 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 2: Fenw call with Nick. I think forty first or better 442 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 2: is a very intriguing bet that you can find out there. 443 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 2: He's at safety at Open Championships. I always tend to 444 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 2: like Feena in these club down situations. It's just better 445 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 2: for his game. The way to proximity this year has 446 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 2: taken a big jump. I love the around the green numbers. 447 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of safety there for him 448 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 2: to come inside the top forty one. So that's kind 449 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 2: of where my card sits right now. It's a very 450 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 2: low exposure card, you know, talking about making additions throughout 451 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 2: the week. I think in tournament head to head wagers 452 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 2: are really where my bread and butter would be. When 453 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: I have the ability to run numbers and we have 454 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 2: some statistical data that I can throw into my sheet, 455 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 2: and then I take some of the aggregated totals I 456 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 2: already have from the pre tournament weights. There, that's where 457 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 2: I want to be. That's where I can find my 458 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 2: largest edge. But it's a weather it's a weather answer 459 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 2: that we need more information on to feel comfortable about 460 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 2: placing a handful of these bets. 461 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, and by the way, on Fino minus one thirty 462 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 3: five for a top forty five over it, is it 463 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 3: a playable number? 464 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 1: I think yes, but a lot. 465 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 5: You gotta lay a lot of juice there, and I'm 466 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 5: probably gonna have a ton of exposure to tony fenol elsewhere, 467 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 5: so I'll probably pass there. If any I trust them 468 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 5: with go top twenty. I'm sure what's the number one 469 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 5: fan duel for the top twenty? I know I did 470 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 5: not have an edge per se, but I'll certainly look 471 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 5: at If it's around. 472 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: Plus one nine plus one, I'll take it in. 473 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 5: Let's do it. 474 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 2: I would probably prefer that, I guess the only reason 475 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 2: why you give hesitation based off of my answer there, 476 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 2: and I don't want to keep using this as like 477 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 2: the scapegoat excuse that I talk about, but it is 478 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 2: a volatile tournament with weather like I don't know if 479 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 2: I necessarily want to be laying an overabundance of juice 480 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: on a wager that was already a small number grab 481 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 2: for me as it was as a forty first or 482 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 2: better spot at minus one twenty, but it also had 483 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 2: the capabilities if you shop around where you know those 484 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 2: bets paid out a little bit differently. So that that's 485 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 2: my only thought with the female situation is we're talking 486 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 2: about fine margins at a tournament that can be highly volatile. 487 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 3: Nick Brettwish, where are we looking possibly for a maker, 488 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 3: miss cut, finishing position, round leader? 489 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: What do you got? 490 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 5: All right, I'll give you the rest of my card here. 491 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 5: I got Taylor Gooch top ten at six to one. Again, 492 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 5: just somebody I really like. My numbers seem to really 493 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 5: like him this week. My favorite play of the week 494 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 5: is Jordan Smith top forty on FanDuel is plus one ninety. 495 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 5: This dude's an excellent form. He's an Englishman, a fairway finder, 496 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 5: drives the ball very long top ten in ball striking 497 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 5: at the Scottish Open last week top twenty and a 498 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 5: strokes gained off the tee. He's got five straight finishes 499 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 5: inside the top forty, including a T. Twenty at the 500 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 5: US Open, so we know he can compete in big fields. 501 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 5: The only downside of his game is scrambling, but it 502 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 5: is trending in the right direction. He has gained strokes 503 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 5: around the green in the past two rounds. And then 504 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 5: I will go as Harris English top forty on FanDuel 505 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 5: plus two thirty and then Davis Riley top forty where 506 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 5: Tyser paid in full at plus two to seventy five. 507 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 5: I believe that number on FanDuel would have a dead 508 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 5: heat rule, but that is three to one on FanDuel. 509 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 5: Also pretty nice number on Davis Riley. And then I 510 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 5: would love Spencer's opinion on this. I think this was 511 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 5: just a weird number out there. I hope it's not 512 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 5: like a trap, but my numbers had this at minus 513 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 5: one seventy five. You can get minus one twenty five 514 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 5: out in the market. Matthew Southgate to miss the cut 515 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 5: minus one twenty five, I don't. 516 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 2: Know, Nick, I mean the answer that I always give 517 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 2: you with everything is when we take these DP World 518 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 2: Tour players, I have such limited data on them to 519 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 2: begin with that if you want to tell me all 520 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: of them to miss the cut, I would be in 521 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: on any of those problem. 522 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 5: The short game in scrambling is non existent for this guy. 523 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 5: He's an excellent driver of the golf ball, decent iron play. 524 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 5: He did spike a little bit last week at the 525 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 5: Scottish Open, but did miss the cut just too load 526 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 5: of a field here and again my numbers think it's 527 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 5: minus one seventy five miss the cut. So I'll take 528 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 5: fifty points of value on a market I never bet. 529 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 5: So we'll see what happens. But Brendan, you usually bring 530 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 5: us good luck on these things, so I think it's 531 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 5: a lock. 532 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 3: Okay from Lincoln the links and locks too yeah yet responsibly, everybody, 533 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 3: come on now, okay, so let's spend a second on 534 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 3: this and then we'll get out of here. So I know, 535 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 3: and Spencer's brought up, we're going to have to put 536 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 3: a limit on the word weather, uh for the remainder 537 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 3: of the show. It's like that's the that's the key 538 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 3: word here. It's like when you have the word bank 539 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 3: when you're in grammar school, but you get to overuse 540 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 3: one word. 541 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: The word is weather. 542 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 3: But what other So as you both talked about consistency 543 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 3: ball striking around the green, if you're a specialist there, 544 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 3: that checks a box. 545 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: If you can manage your way around a more technical style. 546 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 3: Venue in England for this coming week, what other things 547 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 3: the weather pending of course, Spencer and I'll go I'll 548 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 3: get Nick's thoughts on this too. Just what other characteristics 549 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 3: are you thinking about for live betting purposes later in 550 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 3: the week if there's an opportunity there. 551 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,479 Speaker 2: It's such a hard and difficult way that you phrased 552 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 2: that question, Brendan be sorry. 553 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 5: I was gonna say, I'm I don't know how to 554 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 5: answer that either. 555 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: So like the answer I want to give, and we'll 556 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 2: change the word here. The conditions that are out there there, 557 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 2: that's the highly impactful answer for me of what I 558 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 2: really care about. 559 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,639 Speaker 4: I don't want to get stuck. 560 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 2: On the wrong end of a draw where half the 561 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 2: field gets taken out because of some reason. And I 562 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 2: don't necessarily think that's going to come into play in 563 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 2: this situation, but it can happen on coastal golf courses 564 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 2: when you throw it, specifically in Europe without the protection 565 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 2: and without the tree line nature. So that is something 566 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 2: that's going to be highly important for me. I want 567 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 2: to make sure that certain factors there make sense. I 568 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 2: think if I'm looking for a skill set and something 569 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,640 Speaker 2: how can work, and like the way I ran into 570 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 2: my model, I have wind and some of these you know, 571 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 2: funkier conditions out here thrown into my model one time. 572 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 4: Now it doesn't mean that I. 573 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 2: Need to overly do it, but it's already being impacted 574 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 2: into my model, you know, to ten percent of the 575 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 2: overall weight that I'm using, because I do think it's 576 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 2: important and it is going to change the way that 577 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 2: my model is going to spit out certain functions here, 578 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,640 Speaker 2: and and that's that's going. 579 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 4: To matter to me. 580 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 2: I think the ability to scramble, the ability to hit 581 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 2: greens in regulation, the ability to avoid three putts. These 582 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 2: are really large green complexes, and you know, I'm trying 583 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 2: to figure out what word to use that would be 584 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 2: different than it, but it always kind of just continues 585 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 2: trickling back into I would like to know how hard 586 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 2: the wind is blowing in some of these spots. I 587 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,120 Speaker 2: would like to know, how does a golfer perform when 588 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 2: the winds do pick up. Does it make his around 589 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,120 Speaker 2: the green game worst? Does it make his potter worse? 590 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 2: Does it make his off tea game worse? There's out 591 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,479 Speaker 2: a balance in so many situations that all of a sudden, 592 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 2: a fifteen mile prower gus that is going you know, 593 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 2: left to right, that all of a sudden starts pushing 594 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: you towards the out of bounce sticks there. I mean, 595 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 2: that could be the end of your tournament for a 596 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 2: major championship. So I think all those things matter. It's 597 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,879 Speaker 2: something that you're going to have to be very cognitive 598 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 2: of throughout the week and just keep in the back. 599 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 4: Of your mind. 600 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 2: And it's not something that's necessarily overly weighable, but you 601 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 2: can throw it into a model and at least use 602 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 2: it to figure out decisions that will help and figure 603 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 2: out a way to extract better in a better sense. 604 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,399 Speaker 4: Hopefully that answers your question. 605 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: It does. 606 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 3: It does because you're not just telling me keep an 607 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:39,879 Speaker 3: eye on the conditions. 608 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: Okay, got it. 609 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 3: But what you gave the specifics as to what you'll 610 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 3: be watching in terms of what the conditions could do 611 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 3: to affect a certain player, so that helps. I think 612 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 3: it helps for the audience. Anything to add Nick before 613 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,880 Speaker 3: we leave, No, sir, I love it. Okay, Spencer gave 614 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 3: it very detailed, complex answer. 615 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:02,239 Speaker 1: He'll do that. 616 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 2: He'll do that. 617 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 5: That's I'd just like to go on meet sometimes and 618 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:05,640 Speaker 5: start taking notes myself. 619 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:07,479 Speaker 1: Got a boy, what do you think I'm doing? 620 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 3: That's why I hold a pen when I do these podcasts, 621 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 3: very similar to what our producers do before the bets 622 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,719 Speaker 3: get posted in the Action Network app or wherever they 623 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 3: may be in podcast form or in app form. Spencer Agyar, 624 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 3: Nick Brettwish. They are the co hosts of Better Golf Podcast. 625 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 3: You can check them out there. Finally, before we go, 626 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 3: where can we find you both the rest of the week. 627 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, best bets at Action Network and then also on 628 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 5: Twitter at Better Golf Pod. We will have our episode 629 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 5: out later tonight and we'll be doing a Round one 630 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 5: fantasy draft over at Underdog. If anybody wants to join, 631 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 5: we'll send the link. Hop in and come beat Spencer 632 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 5: and Iss and some some Round one showdown on an 633 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 5: Underdog Very good. 634 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: And then I know you've got some stuff going on 635 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: at Rotoballer. Spencer yeah, you can if you like. 636 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 2: If you like to look at some of the numbers 637 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 2: that I've talked about, I have my model available over 638 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 2: at to Bowler cover the tournament through all from top 639 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 2: to bottom, between outrights, placements, matchups, that anything you can 640 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 2: think of with dfs with it. So can check me 641 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 2: out there and if you haven't done so already by 642 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 2: the time that this airs, you can listen to Nick 643 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 2: and I again over on Action Network on our Links 644 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 2: and Walks podcast. So I hope everybody out there considers 645 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 2: also checking that out. 646 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 3: Spencer Agyar, Nick Brettwish, thanks for the time as always the. 647 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 1: Open Championship in England. 648 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 3: Signing off of the Action Network podcast, Brendan glass Sheen, 649 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 3: thanks for listening. 650 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: Everybody. We are brought to you by the FANDOS Sportsbook. 651 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 3: Best of luck, keep an eye on the app, keep 652 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 3: in line with these guys, follow them. I gave their 653 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 3: handles at the top of the show for live betting 654 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 3: purposes and the weather it's important to monitor as the 655 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 3: weekend transpires. 656 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast. We'll talk 657 00:29:50,840 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: to you again next time. Action Network minds you please 658 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. 659 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem. 660 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 2: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 661 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler