1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 3: All right, here we go. 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 4: Throwing out. 5 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 3: We're saying it's a cash touchdown. 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: go to sin. 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 5: That's incredible being bank, small bank. 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the 10 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 3: ultimate combining. 11 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 4: And you want to pack. 12 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 13 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 6: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM, 14 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 6: the King of Sportsbooks. 15 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 5: I'm Brendan glas Sheen. 16 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 6: Today's episode NFL Week twelve Best Bets for Thanksgiving Week. 17 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 6: We're coming to you earlier in the week, so keep 18 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 6: that in mind if you're listening later in the week 19 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 6: with line Movement, because we got to get these things 20 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 6: up and running and everyone's got holiday plans, so we 21 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 6: appreciate those of you tuning in early in the week. 22 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 5: Join us each week all season long. 23 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 6: We have Brandon Anderson and Luke Swayin aka Vegas Refund 24 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 6: of Action Network, and Anthony Dbundo is our rotating third member. Today, Hidbundo, 25 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,279 Speaker 6: Thanks for joining us tonight. You can find the video 26 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 6: version of this podcast and all of our shows on 27 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 6: the Action Network YouTube channel. Please subscribe if you haven't 28 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 6: done so, already and bet you hit the like button 29 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 6: on the video. We greatly appreciate that, and of course 30 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 6: for our listening audience, a five star rating and review 31 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 6: on Apple, Spotify, wherever you listen is greatly appreciated too. 32 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 5: We like the feedback and. 33 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 6: You can find Brandon, Luke and Dbundo individually in the 34 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 6: Action Network app. Follow them there for their picks throughout 35 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 6: the course of this week and each and every week 36 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 6: another five hundred plus week for the podcast five and four. 37 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 6: Week eleven, Brandon's look ahead brings us to fifty six 38 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 6: and fifty two for the season. So let's dive in. 39 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 6: Brandon's not going first, but he can react because it 40 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 6: does relate to his look ahead from last week's episode, 41 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 6: So I will go to Luke first. 42 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 5: What do you got for Week twelve? Best bet number one? 43 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, So I'm gonna go with the Lions laying seven 44 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 7: and a half hosting the Packers as the first game 45 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 7: on Thanksgiving, which this Thanksgiving slate's probably one of the 46 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 7: chalkiest slates honestly we've ever had, and this Lion's team 47 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 7: is just a different beast at home, and honestly, looking 48 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 7: at this Thanksgiving slate, I was trying to figure out 49 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 7: ways to like not be so chalky and take the dogs. 50 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 7: But I really there just isn't anything about this Packers 51 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 7: team that makes me comfortable about the seven and a half. 52 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 7: And I have a feeling the next pick might have 53 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 7: something to say about that. But Aaron Jones, he's definitely out. 54 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 7: Emmanuel Wilson, the third stringer, is also out, not that 55 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 7: he really matters, and this offense has just been totally 56 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,399 Speaker 7: different without Aaron Jones. I think everyone remembers the Week 57 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 7: one game where Aaron Jones went off and then he 58 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,839 Speaker 7: got hurt and they kind of squeezed out a couple 59 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 7: wins and after that really is just gross in terms 60 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 7: what this Packers team has looked like. And this Lion's 61 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 7: team is just a well oiled machine that just continues 62 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 7: to cover at like the highest rate I think ever 63 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 7: in terms of Dan Campbell. And I'm not like totally, 64 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 7: I'm I'm not into trends whatsoever, and I read them 65 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 7: off here because I know some people are. But public 66 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 7: favorites like cover at an absurd rate on Thanksgiving via 67 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 7: Evan Abrams and sixty percent I think it is or 68 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 7: plus is twenty two and eight against the spread on 69 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 7: Thanksgiving and then favorites cover at a ridiculous rate. It 70 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 7: really like it's just it's more of a fate of 71 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 7: the Packers and just feeling a lot more comfortable with 72 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 7: this Lion's team, and I wanted some Thanksgiving picks and truthfully, 73 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 7: like I honestly think teasing the Lions with whatever you 74 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 7: want because they're definitely gonna win this game a lot more, 75 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 7: a lot more than they're going to lose. And then 76 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 7: I think a money line parlay with the Lions, Cowboys, Niners, 77 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 7: and Dolphins is awesome, so of like an okay thing 78 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 7: to do, Like normally you just you don't want to 79 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 7: be that shockey. But it's late enough in the season 80 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 7: that we know who these teams are and I will 81 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 7: be doing that as well. So Lion's Lions center and a. 82 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 5: Half is that parlay? I'm trying to do it right 83 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 5: now myself. 84 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 7: Or it's like plus one thirty and then the three 85 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 7: of them on Thanksgiving, it's like I think it's even 86 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 7: odds or minus one oh. 87 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 5: Two minus one oh four. Yeah, yep, fine, oh good. 88 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 6: You're right though, plus one thirty on the on four 89 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 6: of them, Okay, as we know, these teams met on 90 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 6: Thursday night, very early in the year. It was Week 91 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 6: number four, Lions one, thirty four to twenty. Jared Goff 92 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 6: and Jordan Love both had interceptions in that game, Jordan 93 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 6: Love through two. Mister Anthony Dubundo is a Jordan Loves supporter, 94 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 6: and he is backing the Packers and going against Luke. 95 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 6: Why Dubundo? 96 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 2: You know, Uh, Brandon and I have gone back and 97 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 2: forth in this a good amount in the last few weeks, 98 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,239 Speaker 2: because I've now bet the Packers, i think, four straight 99 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: weeks to varying levels of success. I think the market 100 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 2: is a little bit short on this team, and I 101 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 2: do think that Jordan Love has played two of his 102 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 2: best games in the last two weeks, and I think 103 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 2: that they've found something in Jane Reid. They've kind of 104 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 2: found some explosiveness that they were missing, and I think 105 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 2: there's just a lot of holes in this Detroit defense. 106 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 2: I came into the season they were my only future 107 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 2: that was you know, conference or Super Bowl, was Lions 108 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 2: to win the NFC. I came in pretty high on 109 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 2: this team, but I did not think we'd have back 110 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 2: to back weeks where they'd be laying more than a 111 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 2: touchdown in their division. And so I had the Bears 112 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 2: last week and I'm rolling with Green Bay again this week. 113 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: I think green Bay is a full point better than Chicago, 114 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: at least maybe point and a half. And we just 115 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 2: got eight. That was the close on Sunday with this 116 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: same Detroit team. And the reason I'm really skeptical of 117 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 2: Detroit laying big numbers now is, yes, Campbell's been great 118 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: as an underdog, and he's been good, and the market 119 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: has generally undervalued the Lions. But now they're in a 120 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 2: position as a huge favorite. Their defense is bottom ten 121 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 2: coverage unit. PFF concerned about that in this matchup. And 122 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 2: if you just look at you know what the Bears 123 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 2: did on Sunday. They had a lot of long, methodical 124 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 2: drives that really, you know, ate up the clock and 125 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 2: made it really hard for Detroit to get any margin. 126 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: You know, you throw in one or two golf mistakes 127 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, you know, they probably should 128 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 2: have lost that game. Chicago had five drives that were 129 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 2: five minutes are longer in length, and they had twenty 130 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 2: five first downs. And that's a Bears offense that I 131 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 2: think is worse than the one Green Bay's rolling out 132 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: right now. I know the Packers haven't been consistent offensively, 133 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: but they've also lost a lot of close games, and 134 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 2: I think we've kind of read a lot into the 135 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 2: fact they're under five hundred and whatever. But it's pretty 136 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 2: much just like the most quintessential league average team there 137 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: is yards per drive net. They're seventeenth a EPA net. 138 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 2: They're right around sixteen seventeen as well, So there's not 139 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: a ton to love about the Packers. But are the 140 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 2: Lions good enough to lay seven and a half? I 141 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 2: don't think so, so I'm going to take the Packers 142 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: plus seven and a half. I do generally agree with 143 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 2: Luke that, you know, loong teaser probably a decent play too, 144 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 2: just because you're going through those key numbers. But I 145 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 2: think that that seven and a half is just too 146 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 2: much for Allion's defense that has been diced up by 147 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 2: most good pocket passers they've played the season. 148 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 7: The only thing I want to I disagree with what 149 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 7: Anthony said is the Bears are definitely like if you 150 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 7: just take the full sample of the season, yeah, okay, 151 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 7: they're I would say the Packers have been better than 152 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 7: the Bears, but the last three weeks the Bears. 153 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 8: I think I saw a quote that the Bears. 154 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 7: Are starting to look like the Lions two years ago, 155 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 7: where they just started to cover every game, but they 156 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 7: would lose anyway. It is Bear seem honestly, maybe it's 157 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 7: the recency bias, but I think they're above average at 158 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 7: this point. And I maybe I just don't watch the 159 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 7: Packers enough where it took you half a season to 160 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 7: watch the Packers. 161 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:43,679 Speaker 2: But uh, yeah, good enough. But I've been somewhat impressed 162 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 2: with Love the last two weeks, and they did outgame both, 163 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 2: I mean out gaining Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh and won the yardage. 164 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 2: There were some key drops from the Chargers, but won 165 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 2: the yardage in that game as well, and outplayed the 166 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 2: Chargers for majority of the game. Uh you know, so 167 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 2: I'm I'm okay with this Packers team right around the gaverage. 168 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 6: Yeah, when you look at Jordan love first five games 169 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 6: versus his last five games, completion percentages up, passing yardages up, 170 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 6: that was a get right spot against the Chargers. Brandon, 171 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 6: this was your look aheadline last week, So if you'd 172 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 6: like to add to this analysis, please do. 173 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'm still on the lines here. I 174 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 4: think honestly, everything d Bundo said is the right analysis. 175 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 4: If this was a Sunday noon game, I might be 176 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 4: taking the Packers a little more seriously. But I'm just 177 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 4: going to ride the Thanksgiving trends. Lines have covered eight 178 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 4: of the last eleven. On Thanksgiving, non Dallas favorites twenty 179 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 4: nine to nine. The last two decades, ats seventy six 180 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 4: percent get favored by seven or more. It's twelve and two, 181 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 4: not counting the Cowboys. So just you know, we all 182 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 4: watch these games. We watch every Thanksgiving. The teams that 183 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 4: are really good take your business on Thanksgiving. It's like 184 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 4: the game that you wait for. So I'm just going 185 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 4: to kind of agree with the Bundo, but throw it 186 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 4: out anyways. 187 00:08:58,280 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 3: And just ride with the big favorite here. 188 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 5: Okay, let's go to our next round of picks. 189 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 6: We turned to Thursday Night, Seattle hosting San Francisco. 190 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 5: Luke, you're going this direction this game? What do you got? 191 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 7: I'm gonna go chalk again and I'm gonna go with 192 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 7: the Niners laying seven at the Seahawks seven six and 193 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 7: a half. Which this one, like I fully expect, you know, 194 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 7: probably to play I think Pete Carroll said he's trending 195 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 7: in the right direction a metcalf practice in a limitic capacity. 196 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 7: I expect him to play as well. Kenneth Walker, I 197 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 7: do not. But really it's it's really similar, honestly to 198 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 7: the lines where just I just don't see a lot 199 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 7: any matchups, a lot of scenarios where the Seahawks can 200 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 7: stay within this number and you can go like go 201 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 7: for the Seahawks and like fade the public, do whatever 202 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 7: you want, But like this one. I've learned my lesson 203 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 7: one too many times last year taking the Seahawks against 204 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 7: the Diners, where I remember Thursday Night Football like you 205 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 7: knew within the first couple of minutes the game was 206 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 7: over and that score was a lot closer than actually was, 207 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 7: and the Seahawks in San fran and the playoff game 208 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 7: just got absolutely destroyed last year. And this Seahawks team, 209 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 7: we said last week I'm done trusting them. Gino will 210 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 7: not be at full strength. It's just a Niners team 211 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 7: that I just see on the last game with Thanksgiving 212 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 7: boat racing the Seahawks team that there's gonna be the 213 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:26,719 Speaker 7: divisional trends. You don't want to a divisional favorite on 214 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 7: the road, whatever, I'm just gonna go with the better 215 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 7: team on Thanksgiving. 216 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 8: We're gonna have actually on it. 217 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 7: Anyway, Evan has some trends for the Niners night fades 218 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 7: or twelve and five favorites is seven plus on the 219 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 7: road on Thanksgiving or eight and one against the spread. 220 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 7: So if you love trends, favorites on Thanksgiving are great, 221 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 7: especially when they're in spots that you usually fade. 222 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 8: If it is on a Sunday. Was the Niners fit? 223 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 7: So I'll take the Niners playing seven at the Seahawks 224 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 7: because I really just don't see a lot of scenarios 225 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 7: with the Sea Auction cover. I would probably it's going 226 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 7: to go up when Gino is like officially announced playing. 227 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 7: I would assume this goes up a little bit if 228 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 7: you want to get like that half point of CLV, 229 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:08,839 Speaker 7: get the six and a half. 230 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 8: Now. 231 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 7: I don't think it's gonna go much higher because I 232 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 7: think the book started baking and Gino playing because everyone's 233 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 7: expecting it. 234 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 6: Looking at the when these teams met last year, late 235 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 6: in the season, it was Week fourteen or fifteen. Let's 236 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 6: see Seahawks punt punt, punt, punt, field goal, fumble punt. 237 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 6: That was the first half, second half field goal punt punt, 238 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 6: and they closed. 239 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 5: The game with the touchdown the final minute of the game. 240 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 7: That I was on the Seahawks in both those games, 241 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 7: or I don't know what happened to the third one 242 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 7: they played last year, but like it was just I 243 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 7: just vividly remember trying to be contrying and trying to 244 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,079 Speaker 7: like I don't want to say cute, but knowing. 245 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 8: It was over like the second it started, and just 246 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 8: regretting it. 247 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 2: How was the time when everybody tried to bet against 248 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: Perty every week and kept losing? 249 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, yes, yeah, I was. 250 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 4: That was a Seattle Island spot for me too. And 251 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 4: I remember Luke the exact same feeling coming in and 252 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 4: like three minutes in just being like, well, that's that's gone, 253 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 4: Like because here's the thing. Seattle can't tackle, which is 254 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 4: not great against San Francisco or most teams, but especially 255 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 4: the Niners and Gino Smith can handle the pressure and 256 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 4: both of those and you just see it right away 257 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 4: with whoever has the ball, and you're like, oh no, 258 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 4: this is not gonna be fun. The Niners twenty eight 259 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 4: to eighteen last year was an average score thirty to fourteen, 260 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 4: and you don't want to like overvalue running backs like 261 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 4: Charmonay is like a rookie, like I think he was 262 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 4: like a popular like fantasy pick in August, as like 263 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 4: I'm an insurance policy to Kenneth Walker because Charbaday was 264 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 4: like drafted high. He might be good, we don't know, 265 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 4: but like they're not going to be able to run 266 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 4: the ball, and Gino's gonna have the entire games really 267 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 4: gonna be in Gino's hand having to pass, and who 268 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 4: knows how healthy it was when he came into the 269 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 4: last drive on Sunday, like he honestly looked fine. But 270 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 4: I will take the Niners if they just have to, 271 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 4: if Gino has to beat them on that margin. 272 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 6: And they are not good in the red zone, the 273 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 6: Seattle Seahawks, at least recently, they don't. 274 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 5: They can't score. 275 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 6: Okay, I think that's it for best bets as far 276 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 6: as Thursday is concerned, and Friday stay tuned though for 277 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 6: a Thanksgiving whip around. 278 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 5: More on that to come. 279 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 6: The island last year was Seattle, but the island in 280 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 6: twenty twenty three is in Houston Brandon. 281 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 4: It is give me Texans plus two and a half. 282 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 4: This is the game we've been waiting for against Jacksonville. 283 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 4: Texans are hot, man. They have won six of the 284 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 4: last eight right now. The two losses literally came with 285 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 4: Zeros on the clock by field goal, so they're that 286 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 4: close to being on an eight game winning streak right now. 287 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 4: Sere is not going to win MVP, but like he 288 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 4: the fact that a rookie quarterback is in the mix 289 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 4: is in the conversation, like he is answering every question. 290 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 4: He's showing up, hitting the throws late, dropping the bucket. 291 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 4: The defense is starting to come together top twelve past 292 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 4: five games. They've been great against the run. Lately, Devin 293 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 4: Singletary is starting to run. That's the thing that they 294 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 4: haven't been able to do much. Suddenly the last couple 295 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 4: of games they're running a little bit Hoefully they don't 296 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 4: lean too heavily against Jacksonville. There that would not go 297 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 4: well for them in all likelihood. But I just think 298 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 4: Houston wins. I keep in my notes every time I 299 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 4: come to Texans game, writing down Houston will win in 300 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 4: the trenches. And look that worked for us with Philadelphia 301 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 4: all season long last year. And I'm not calling Houston Philadelphia, 302 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 4: but winning in the trenches is a pretty good formula. 303 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 4: The Jaguars offensive line is terrible. Their bottom three pass 304 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 4: block win rate and bottom three run black win rate. 305 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 4: Houston's defense, the defensive line, you know, I was big 306 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 4: on Will Anderson before the season. 307 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 3: He had the flash, but he's. 308 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 4: Been really good. Rankins has been great. Houston is top 309 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 4: two in pass rush and run stop win rate, so 310 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 4: that is a spot where they can really dominate. And 311 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 4: Houston's offensive line is getting healthy now too. Jaguars, their 312 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 4: offense has been pretty inconsistent. They were good last week 313 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 4: against the Titans, but Press Taylor just does not really 314 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 4: dialing things up great for them. The defense, they got 315 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 4: exposed by the Niners a couple weeks ago. They got 316 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 4: exposed by these Texans. These teams played in September in 317 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 4: Jacksonville and the Texans one by twenty and our home underdogs. Now, 318 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 4: I don't understand. The Texans have won ten of the 319 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 4: last eleven meetings between them and the Jaguars. I think 320 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 4: they're just as good. I'll happily take the two and 321 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 4: a half points one half if you need it. I'll 322 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 4: happily take them at home. Obviously, I'm on the division 323 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 4: odds from a couple times by now I think it's 324 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 4: around plus two to fifty. If you like them here, 325 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 4: they even up the division and would have swept head 326 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 4: to head, so they would be the division leader. Certainly, 327 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 4: I don't mind that as well. I'd rather do that 328 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 4: than a money line play. But for this pick, give 329 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 4: me Texans Island plus two and a half. 330 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 6: That's right, there's a chance here for the Texans to 331 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 6: go to two to zero against the Jags. 332 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 7: Luke Bran, what do you think about Will Anderson defensive 333 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 7: Rookie the year? 334 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 8: Right now? 335 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 7: It's like fifteen to one where Jalen Carr is a 336 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 7: leader who has like no stats currently, Like it's just 337 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 7: like basically he's playing at an all pro level of 338 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 7: no sacks, which usually the sack leader is who wins. 339 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 7: Then Witherspoon corner. He has a couple of showcase games, 340 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 7: but like corners, it's tougher to get the interception. Will 341 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 7: Anderson gets it. He had his like I think, I 342 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 7: don't know what number sack it was last week, but 343 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 7: he's getting pressure every week. If he pushed together like 344 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 7: a bunch of sacks at fifteen to one, I can 345 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: see it. 346 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I certainly I don't mind it. Like I agree 347 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 4: with all of that. That was effectively my case before 348 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 4: the season. I've got a lot of money on Texans Islands. 349 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 4: I don't know if I need to personally be putting 350 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 4: more onto Will Anderson, but fifteen to one, I agree. 351 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 4: I think he's at three sacks, which I believe Witherspoon 352 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 4: as a corner has three. I think Carter's at four. So, like, 353 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 4: there's not a lot of raw numbers here, but I've 354 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 4: seen Seth Walder on Twitter today was hyping up Will Anderson. 355 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 4: He's on the field way more than Jalen Carter, so 356 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 4: he's more impactful in that way. He's been an elite 357 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 4: run defender. He's a big reason why the run defense 358 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 4: is getting so good. He's the reason why, you know, 359 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 4: those defensive line win rates are good. And I think, 360 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,719 Speaker 4: you know, if Houston keeps doing this, if they keep winning, 361 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 4: they're gonna get some more credit. Obviously, Stroud's gonna win 362 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 4: Rookie of the Year, but Jamika Ryan's coach Will Anderson 363 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 4: defensive line or a Rookie of the Year, I think 364 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 4: they're gonna keep getting some looks so at fifteen to 365 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 4: one out mind the nibble. 366 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,719 Speaker 2: Sacks are always a quarterback stat, right, So let's look 367 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 2: at the quarterbacks. They're gonna play Russell Wilson, very sack prone, 368 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 2: Tim Boyle. Then they're gonna play Will Levis twice, and 369 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 2: they're gonna play dtr So that's a lot of sacks. 370 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 8: Ye. 371 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, you just need one one game where he gets 372 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 4: like two and a half sacks and that can happen 373 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 4: for a lot of dudes, and he is getting there. 374 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 4: So yeah, one game, especially with the spotlight this team 375 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 4: is getting. I don't mind that at all that he 376 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 4: could definitely how many prime time games of those Dubunda 377 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 4: any Houston? 378 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 6: So yeah, that would be the problem with Jalen Carson Island. 379 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 2: The Houston Island closes at four pm every so. 380 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 6: Well in the Eagles still we get the Cowboys again, 381 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 6: They've got the Bills this week, Niners the following. So yeah, 382 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 6: and speaking of the Bills and the Eagles, dubundo, you're 383 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 6: looking at that game for your second one. 384 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 2: This Eagles team, man, I was I walked into my 385 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 2: house last night and I said, I wish I could 386 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 2: run as good in life as the Philadelphia Eagles have 387 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 2: run this season five separate times now the opposing team 388 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 2: has has drive, has had a drive for the tie 389 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 2: or the win. Only one time has the team pulled 390 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 2: it off. And the number of ways that they've gotten 391 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 2: those stops has been amazing if you look back at 392 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 2: some of the ways with you know, Dak, you know, 393 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 2: his toe being out of bounds and the guy being 394 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 2: half yard shore and last night with MBS of course. 395 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 6: But the Patriots too week one couldn't get his feet in. 396 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 2: Uh So, you know, there's been all kinds of different 397 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 2: bounces that have been Ron ri veron not going for 398 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 2: two anyway. Uh this Eagles team, you know, let's play. 399 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 2: Let's play trivia. Who has a better point differential this season? 400 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 2: Buffalo or Philadelphia? 401 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:00,719 Speaker 8: Buffalo? 402 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 2: Buffalo? Who has the better offense by success rate rushing Buffalo, 403 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 2: passing Buffalo EPA offensively Buffalo. Who has the better secondary 404 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,679 Speaker 2: defensively Buffalo? Okay, so what are we doing here? I'm 405 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 2: catching three. 406 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 5: Trivia during the week on happy Hour. You just went 407 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 5: four for four. That's great. 408 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, you just won the Quizzo Bowl Championship. 409 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 5: You deserve a medal or holiday, or at least the 410 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 5: cuddle from somebody. Thank you get to the I mean, 411 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 5: Buffalo is fine. 412 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 2: I mean we've all done the same song and dance. 413 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: You know why the sky is falling in Buffalo and 414 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 2: the Eagles are the best team in the NFL has 415 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 2: ever seen. Because the Eagles are six and one and 416 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 2: one score games. Buffalo is two and five. And that's 417 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 2: the difference. They've had a bunch of coin flip games, 418 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 2: a ton of bad turnover. Look, you know who has 419 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 2: a higher turnover worthy play rate this year? Jalen hurts 420 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 2: to Josh Allen. Jalen hurts, so like, it's been incredible, 421 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 2: this Eagles team. And look, I get it, like they're 422 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 2: a good team. They're one of the best three teams 423 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 2: in the NFC, probably one of the four best in 424 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 2: the NFL, five best. But they have run so well 425 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 2: that this extra half point we're getting, maybe full point, 426 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 2: I'd argue is overvaluing them. And I think that catching 427 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 2: the hook. I love Josh Allen against the secondary. I 428 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 2: think he's gonna have a big game Sunday, and I 429 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 2: think we're gonna have another coin flip Eagles game, and 430 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 2: I'm gonna happy only take three and a half with 431 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 2: Buffalo on the road. I think they can run on Philly. 432 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 2: I think they can pass down the field on Philly, 433 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 2: and I think that they're gonna have a ton of success. 434 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,479 Speaker 2: Keep in mind the huge Eagles win last night. They 435 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 2: were once again outgained by one hundred yards, same as 436 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 2: the Dallas game. 437 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 8: Game was insane. 438 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 7: That was the luckiest for the Chiefs. 439 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 2: One in the end zone, won the Kelsey fumble, Andy 440 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 2: Reid's terrible punt decision on fourth and fourth thirty nine 441 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 2: and MVS dropping to go ahead touchdown on the final 442 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 2: two minutes. I mean, I listened to talk radio just 443 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 2: like hate listen this morning in Philadelphia because it's just like, 444 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 2: you know, how gritty of a win it was, which like, yeah, 445 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 2: you know, good for them they won, But like, are 446 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: the Eagles a better team or worst team? If MVS 447 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 2: catches that pass? No, the guy got smoked, Roby got smoked. 448 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 2: Their whole secondary is a house of cards and it 449 00:20:58,359 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 2: will come crumbling down. 450 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 3: Josh Allen, very good. 451 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 5: I don't think much more needs to be said. Brandon 452 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 5: your second one. 453 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 4: Please, I'll stay in Pennsylvania and I'm gonna go to 454 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 4: the Steelers. Give me a Steelers money line minus one 455 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 4: ten at Cincinnati. I guess we are leaving the state, 456 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 4: but let's leave the country. 457 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 3: Praise be. 458 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 4: Matt Canada is gone. Canada is out of here. Canada 459 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 4: will he have to celebrate Thanksgiving with the US this year. 460 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 4: He is the first Steelers coach fired during the season 461 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 4: since nineteen forty one. 462 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 3: That's bad. 463 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 4: This was And guys, apparently I don't know who Mike 464 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 4: Sullivan is. I've never heard of him before, but he 465 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 4: is the quarterbacks coach. He's taken over play calling. Here's 466 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 4: what I'm seeing about him. He's gonna cut horizontal play calls. 467 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 4: He's going to empower the running backs. Jalen Warren has 468 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 4: been awesome, especially the last three weeks, and they're vowing 469 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 4: to do more play action. 470 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 3: To me, that is a key. 471 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 4: Pickets numbers in the play actually have been really good, 472 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 4: but Pittsburgh has the third fewest play actions so far 473 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 4: the season because Matt Canada didn't know what he was 474 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 4: doing with play calling. So curious thing about this whole 475 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 4: Canada thing. If Pittsburgh's offensive numbers have actually been quietly 476 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 4: getting pretty good for the last month and no one 477 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 4: really noticed because we just turned so hard on Matt 478 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 4: Canada this whole time. Last six games, they're top ten 479 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 4: by DVA offensively. Part of the reason we haven't notice 480 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 4: two they're facing the number one strength of schedule defensively 481 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,479 Speaker 4: so far this season, so that's part of it. But 482 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 4: the run game has really opened up. Jalen Warren's been 483 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 4: really good. They've been ran on Cleveland last week Warren 484 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 4: had a nice game there. And the Bengals defense has 485 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 4: quietly been really not great this season, like just last 486 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 4: week alone, they dropped from fifteenth to twenty second and 487 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 4: DVOA defensively just from one game, they are thirtieth against 488 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 4: the run. I think Pittsburgh is going to gash them 489 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 4: in the run game here. Can you Pickett? I'm not 490 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 4: loving having to put a vote of confidence Canny Pickett here, 491 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 4: but I can you pickt with not Matt Canada's got 492 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 4: to be better than Canny Pickett. With Matt Canada, he's 493 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 4: actually six and two ats as a favorite. So I 494 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 4: will take the Steelers here. I think the Bengals, you know, 495 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 4: the other side of the ball matters because here we 496 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 4: got Jake Browning making his first career start behind the line. 497 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 4: That is bad pass blocking up against TG a lot 498 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,479 Speaker 4: and all those pass rushers. That doesn't really seem like 499 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 4: the first start I'd like to make in my career. 500 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 4: And I realized, like he effectively just played a game 501 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 4: against the Ravens. 502 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 3: It wasn't bad. 503 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 4: He did all right. He made a few throws there. 504 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,199 Speaker 4: But Burrow out, I think is a cascading effect. We 505 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 4: saw what it looked like when we had bad Burrow early, 506 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 4: when he wasn't healthy. They could barely struggle to get 507 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: like three points in a few games. I think him 508 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 4: out makes the receivers worse. I think it makes the 509 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 4: run game worse, the pass blocking even the worse because 510 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 4: again sacks or a quarterback stat So I just feel 511 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 4: like the Steelers here that we're getting a minus one 512 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 4: half to a minus half a point here. So if 513 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 4: it's if it's about that for you, I'll just take 514 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 4: the money line. It's a minus one ten at the 515 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 4: book where I grabbed it. Tomlin is twenty one and 516 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 4: eleven atis against the Bengals sixty six percent. Steelers have 517 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 4: won twelve of the last sixteen and now Bengals won 518 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 4: more recently in the last couple of years. But look, 519 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 4: I just think the Bengals are done, and the Steelers 520 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 4: going to get that that dead cat bounce from moving 521 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 4: on from Matt Canada, and let's get some points on 522 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 4: the board. Steelers money line miss one ton. 523 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 6: Right, Rara, Mike Tomlin Ra Rah, not blah blah this week, Rara. 524 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 4: It's not even because you know I almost grabbed this 525 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 4: one last week on the look ahead plus six and 526 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 4: obviously they are now favorite. Here could have accidentally lucked 527 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 4: into back to back look ahead spots getting like a 528 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 4: touchdown of CLV when the quarterbacks went out. Wouldn't mind 529 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 4: it that, But yeah, I don't mind grabbing here even 530 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 4: still basically at a coin flip game. 531 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 6: I'm glad in your analysis you left out Nause Harris 532 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 6: because I know he goes right up Luke's tailpipe, because 533 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 6: ban Naji Harris and play Jalen Warren Moore ye. 534 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 8: And what's happening. The dude is an absolute phenomenon. 535 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 5: Got him going, need him? 536 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 8: Guy just makes place. 537 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 3: I love him. 538 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 2: I'm guessing there's no market up yet, but like Steelers 539 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 2: to score their beenning drive like for the bit would 540 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 2: be really funny. 541 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 6: I like that Luke let's shift to I think We're 542 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 6: going all the way to Sunday night. 543 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:11,160 Speaker 5: Is that something? 544 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 3: Nay night? 545 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 6: Okay, thank you Chargers, Chargers visiting the Ravens. 546 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 3: Yep. 547 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 8: So I'm gonna go with the Chargers. 548 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 5: Chargers hosting the Ravens. 549 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 8: Pardon right, really it is. 550 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 7: So I'm gonna get Chargers getting three and a half 551 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 7: hosting the Ravens. Which we watched the Ravens on Thursday 552 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 7: night last week, and they went right down the field 553 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,399 Speaker 7: of Mark Andrews and then he got hurt and the 554 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 7: offense really just looked totally different. Isaiah likely has shown 555 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 7: to be good, but he is no Mark Andrews, and 556 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 7: I think this offense is at least to start. You're 557 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 7: gonna see it lagging behind a little bit without him. 558 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 7: And this is just a do or die game for 559 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 7: the Chargers, like Staley is. If they lose, they was bad, 560 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,439 Speaker 7: like Staley's probably gone. I'm surprised he survived this week. 561 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 7: And it's just a Chargers team with an elite quarterback 562 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 7: that always plays in close games on prime time getting 563 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 7: three and a half. 564 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,400 Speaker 8: It was four, but three and a half is fine. 565 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 7: I'm expecting a better injury report from the Chargers, like please, 566 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 7: God Joe and Guiden play because I can't even think 567 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 7: of the receiver's name right now. 568 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 8: To TTU, who's. 569 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:27,719 Speaker 7: The guy that dropped that deep passd they like they 570 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 7: just he just gotta sit down. So I'm expecting Guiding 571 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 7: to play better. Injury report three and a half in 572 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 7: this spot for a team that just continues to play 573 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,479 Speaker 7: close games on a going against the Ravens team without Andrews, 574 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 7: I think is going to be lagging. I'll take the 575 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 7: Chargers plus three and a half. 576 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 5: Dubundo your last one for us, Please say you what? 577 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 2: We got a couple of big first place battles. We've 578 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 2: got Jags, Texans, and we got Falcons Saints. Kind of 579 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 2: funny the Falcons plus one at home against the New 580 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,880 Speaker 2: Orleans Saints. If you look at our Action Network luck rankings, 581 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 2: a lot of this is driven by a ton of 582 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 2: turnovers in plus territory. But the Atlanta Falcons are actually 583 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 2: checking in at number thirty two, the unluckiest team in 584 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 2: the NFL. And you know Derek Carr. It looks like 585 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 2: he's still in concussion protocol, so it might be Jamis season. 586 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 2: If it is Jamis season, I don't know that the 587 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 2: Saints are built to make that work, right, Like, if 588 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 2: you want to be a defense first, like grinded out 589 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 2: kind of team, you can't have Jamis, you know, you know, 590 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: just throwing balls up and risking these high turnovers, like 591 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 2: their offense is not good enough to overcome it. With 592 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 2: Derek Carr, like, yes, it wasn't necessarily better, but like 593 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 2: you knew what you were getting and it was just 594 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 2: like consistently mediocre play and you could kind of, you know, 595 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 2: make that work with him not taking a ton of 596 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,959 Speaker 2: chances down the field and the occasional yolo ball, whereas 597 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 2: with this Jamis team, like there there really isn't consistency. 598 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 7: So dude, I'm just thinking of the Vikings game with 599 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 7: Jamis and he was throwing of yellows. 600 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:57,680 Speaker 8: It was ridiculous. 601 00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 2: So it works when you're down, he comes in there 602 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,880 Speaker 2: down like twenty Who cares, We could throw them. 603 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 4: A twenty yard pass that's actually seventy yards in the 604 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 4: air across the field just hitting dudes. 605 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 3: If I think stand the time of my life. Just 606 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:11,400 Speaker 3: loved it. 607 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 2: Electric. It was an amazing watch. We were going crazy my 608 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 2: friends and I watch in the game. But you know, 609 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 2: and so then let's look. I think when we look 610 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 2: at these two teams, the most surprising unit of the 611 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 2: four offense defense on each side has actually been the 612 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 2: Falcons defense, which holds up pretty well. Amongst these numbers. 613 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 2: They found a pass rush out of nowhere. They were 614 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:30,959 Speaker 2: the worst pass rush in the NFL last year. This year, 615 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,640 Speaker 2: they found something that has gotten them somewhere. They've held 616 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 2: up against the run. Saints haven't really been a good 617 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 2: run offense, and their secondary has been solid too. Like 618 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 2: they are a top six defense by success rate this year. 619 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 2: And look, I think both of these defenses are a 620 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 2: little overrated in those metrics because of opponent. Right, They've 621 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 2: both benefited from playing really weak schedules, two of the 622 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 2: weakest schedules in the NFL. When you look at you know, 623 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: on paper, though, which offense do I have more faith in? 624 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 2: It's Atlanta, and I still think they you know, you 625 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 2: are per drive Atlanta. Reik's considerably better than New Orleans. 626 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 2: So I'm going with the Falcons at home. I think 627 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 2: these two teams are even at worst, and I'm getting 628 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 2: a point at home. So Falcons, I'm back in on 629 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 2: Brandon's boys. I know I've called them Ponzi scheme, I 630 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 2: think on this pod earlier this year, but I'm in 631 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 2: on Atlanta because the Saints are also front. 632 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 8: It did a line will move if if Jamis isn't 633 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 8: now starting. 634 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 2: I mean it moved about a point and point and 635 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 2: a half for car because. 636 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 5: Right now it's Atlanta minus one. 637 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: One and a half has flipped. Yeah, so I mean 638 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 2: that's that's a jamous move. I mean, granted you're going 639 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: through zero, so it's not as important. I'm fine laying 640 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: the one I would not lay to. But uh, the 641 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 2: line when he was announced in remember that Tampa Bay 642 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 2: game where it was going to be not him, but 643 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: then they at the last part, he was like, I'm playing, 644 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 2: but he was hurt. They took about a point point 645 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 2: a half worth of money through three. So it's definitely 646 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 2: something to watch. But I do think, you know, the 647 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 2: market suggesting it's about a point point and a half. 648 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 2: I just don't know how how well the Jamis fits 649 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 2: into this. To this, this Dennis Allen team right now 650 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 2: certainly will be fun if Jamis is in there. 651 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,239 Speaker 6: Oh yeah, the yolo ball, I like that. All right, 652 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 6: let's go back to the four to thirty window. Brandon 653 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 6: your last one for us. 654 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 3: I gotta say, dubundo. 655 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 4: I earlier when you were on this pod with me, 656 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 4: I made a whole Falcons pick without mentioning the name 657 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 4: Desmond Raider, and you gave me crap for it, and 658 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 4: you just did the exact same thing. We got Dezen 659 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 4: Raider in there. 660 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 2: Maybe I said Falcons turnovers in the red zone, which 661 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 2: had mostly. 662 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 4: Been that's dozen Radder, that's for sure. All right, I'm 663 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 4: gonna go back to a game I picked on the 664 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 4: high read. I'm gonna take Chiefs Raiders. Give me the 665 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 4: under forty three and a half. Howard was forty four 666 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 4: and a half. So we missed the key number forty 667 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 4: four here. But I still like it because what do 668 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 4: we just watch on Monday Night? 669 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,960 Speaker 3: The Chiefs offense is not itself right now. 670 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 4: We kind of suspected that for a while, but that offense, now, 671 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 4: I'm sure you've heard the numbers I wrote about it 672 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 4: after the Monday night game. Chiefs have not scored in 673 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 4: the second half three straight right now, the them scoring 674 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 4: the third quarter four straight games. They're averaging five point 675 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 4: three points per game in the second half for the season. 676 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 4: We're ten games in and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 677 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 4: are averaging five points a game in the second half. 678 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 4: Last four games, the Chiefs are twenty sixth in offensive DVA. 679 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 4: The Chiefs are twenty six They're twenty fifth passing the ball. Like, 680 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 4: go look at the numbers of what quarterbacks have done 681 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 4: against the Eagles. We mentioned it on this podcast, like 682 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 4: Mac Jones is dropping three hundred yards on the Eagles. 683 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 4: Sam Howell's put up like four hundred yards and in 684 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 4: three four scores on them, and the Chiefs just couldn't 685 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 4: move the ball against the same secondary that has not 686 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 4: been good this season. Chiefs are only fifteenth overall last 687 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 4: four games. However, they are the third best defense in 688 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 4: that stretch, and that's why they haven't like totally bottomed 689 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 4: out because we saw good the defense was too right, 690 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 4: They're great in that game. They did what they needed 691 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,239 Speaker 4: too against the Eagles, deserve to win. The Raiders are 692 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 4: also top ten defensively. I think these are two of 693 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 4: the more underrated defenses right now over the last month, 694 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 4: just that window. So I don't really expect the Raiders 695 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 4: to score a lot here, Aidan O'Connell not really doing 696 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 4: a lot for me. They've got eighteen points or less 697 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 4: all but two of their games. So up against this 698 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 4: Chiefs defense, probably not going to go great, but I 699 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 4: think that the Chiefs probably get a win, but more 700 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 4: of the grinded out sort of kind that we've seen 701 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 4: a lot from them this year. The way to beat 702 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 4: the Raiders is run on them. They're still near the 703 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 4: bottom defensively against the run, but the Chiefs aren't running 704 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,479 Speaker 4: the ball well right now either, So Antonio Pears three games, 705 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 4: three unders, chew up the clock. We talked a lot 706 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 4: about that on this podcast. 707 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 3: Each week. 708 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 4: Raiders are nine to two to the under the season, 709 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 4: Chiefs are eight and two to the under. So eighty 710 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 4: one percent combined on the under for the year, Raiders 711 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 4: games averaging thirty seven points, Chiefs averaging thirty nine. That's 712 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 4: basically what we just got on Monday. So I still 713 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,160 Speaker 4: like it here forty three and a half under that 714 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 4: home underdog here we talked about that in sixty two 715 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 4: percent for unders and then unders where the total is 716 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 4: forty four or last for home underdogs of seven or more, 717 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 4: like the Raiders are here eighty six forty eight and two. 718 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 4: Over the last decade, sixty four percent to the under 719 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 4: so same pick a lot of the same logic I 720 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 4: gave out on the high read. But even under the 721 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 4: key number here, I still like Raiders Chiefs under forty 722 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 4: three and a half. 723 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 5: I would add to just because I'm curious. 724 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 6: Second half line second half totals twenty and a half, 725 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 6: just speaking to the point about the Chiefs and Raiders 726 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 6: plus four and a half second half, but that under 727 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 6: feels like it's plus even money right now. 728 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: Total chief second half unders ten and oh and only 729 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,080 Speaker 2: one of them was even a sweat wow. 730 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM use 731 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 6: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to 732 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 6: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your 733 00:33:52,040 --> 00:34:00,479 Speaker 6: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 734 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 6: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 735 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 6: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 736 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 6: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Those are the 737 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,439 Speaker 6: best bets for NFL Week twelve, our Thanksgiving edition. 738 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 5: We won't have a specific look ahead from Brandon Anderson 739 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 5: this week. Because we are recording earlier in the week. 740 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,800 Speaker 6: I must add that this late night record on a Tuesday, 741 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 6: what more spunk from you guys. I would expect the 742 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 6: energy to be down, but there's been a lot of 743 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 6: energy here on the podcast. So before we go dark 744 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,880 Speaker 6: for a few days, getting into the holiday, Brandon a 745 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 6: special Thanksgiving whip around. Wanted to tell us what you 746 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 6: got for Thursday games. That's what we're going to do 747 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 6: this week instead of the look ahead. 748 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you guys probably now. 749 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 4: I do my every game, every team calling each week 750 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 4: where I get one pick up at least one, usually 751 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 4: more than one for a lot of them on every side. 752 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 4: So let's just go through the holidays. Late three Thanksgiving 753 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 4: one Black Friday. We did lines already. We hit both 754 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 4: sides of that one. You can go Luke on the lines. 755 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 4: You go du Bundo on the Packers. You heard me, 756 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 4: I'm on Lands already, Commanders plus eleven at the Cowboys. 757 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,239 Speaker 4: I know Luke talked about chalk. I don't understand why 758 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 4: the Cowboys shouldn't cover here, except here's the one Thanksgiving 759 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,200 Speaker 4: stat you need to know. Dallas has covered one time 760 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,320 Speaker 4: in the last twelve Thanksgivings. Not only are they failing 761 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 4: to cover, they're failing by eleven point eight points a game. No, 762 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,239 Speaker 4: I don't have any case to make for Dallas. I 763 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 4: just know that stat and that's the stat. Ron rivera 764 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,840 Speaker 4: sixty one percent division underdog ten to five and a 765 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 4: one as a division dog of over a touchdown. 766 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 3: So I don't know. Maybe Sam Hell comes through the 767 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:36,879 Speaker 3: back door. They'll figure it out. 768 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 4: If you want a Cowboys, pick Perry Turkey with a 769 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 4: little lamb ceedee lamb eight catches one hundred yards plus 770 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 4: one fifty one. He has done that in for the 771 00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 4: last five games, minus one catch. In a spot you 772 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,520 Speaker 4: can do an escalator one hundred and fifty yards at 773 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:56,280 Speaker 4: plus five twenty. So that's your commander's Cowboys nin Er Seahawks. 774 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 4: We get the Niners side earlier from Luke. I'm on 775 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 4: that one as well. I think that's the way to 776 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 4: bet the Niners. You mentioned the stats on that one. 777 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 4: I like the under here. That was also one of 778 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,799 Speaker 4: my hot reads, so I'll just reiterate that here. Thanksgiving 779 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,160 Speaker 4: post trip to fan unders in the night game eleven 780 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 4: and five sixty nine percent. Obviously it's a primetime game. 781 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 4: We know the prime time understat twenty seven and eight 782 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 4: to the under, and with all those injuries, I agree. 783 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,040 Speaker 4: I think Gino Smith starts, I'm not sure if he finishes, 784 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 4: Like just just a hunch that I don't know if 785 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:26,680 Speaker 4: he's gonna be able to come all the way through. 786 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 4: And I like that we have multiple outs here. Maybe 787 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,480 Speaker 4: the Seahawks hang tough, maybe they don't. And it's like 788 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 4: thirty four to six. Guess what, that's still under two. 789 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:35,920 Speaker 4: So I think we can get a few outs here 790 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,800 Speaker 4: and then Black Friday, let's get a little shopping money. 791 00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,479 Speaker 4: I like Tyreek Hill over seventy seven and a half 792 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 4: receiving yards. Jets defense obviously has been great, but they 793 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 4: have not been great against spide receiver one. In my column, 794 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,480 Speaker 4: I talk about some of the good lines other star 795 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 4: receivers have been put up. Tyreek obviously, he has had 796 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 4: this number most of the time this season. He's seven 797 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 4: of ten he's gotten over it. He's one hundred and 798 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 4: twelve yards or more in six of the ten games. 799 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 4: So again, if you want to escalator, one hundred yards 800 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 4: is plus two thirty five. If you need a side, 801 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,280 Speaker 4: I think you have to try to catch the falling knife. 802 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 4: Jets plus ten you get the Tim Boyle bump. We're 803 00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 4: on with the Zach Wilson experience. Get him out of here. 804 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 4: I think they're gonna come out fired up. You trust 805 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 4: the defense to hang. There's a bunch of trends here 806 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 4: saying trust the double digit home underdog, trust the team 807 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 4: that can't score right now. Basically all the trends say 808 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 4: the line has moved too far. 809 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:27,320 Speaker 3: We're giving too. 810 00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 4: Much, too little credit really to the Jets, who I 811 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,520 Speaker 4: think can hang around and are really playing for their lives. 812 00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,479 Speaker 4: So that's your Thanksgiving Whip Brown one pick for every 813 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,120 Speaker 4: game come back Saturday. 814 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 3: We'll do it for the rest of the slate too. 815 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:40,400 Speaker 5: How do you feel about the under forty one in 816 00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:40,840 Speaker 5: that game? 817 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I looked at the under as well. That was 818 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 4: my alternate pick here. Certainly it seems like an undergame. 819 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 4: I hesitate just because we just don't know. With Tim Boyle, 820 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 4: I was surprised with the numbers on him. I had 821 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 4: a tweet up about it, but like he's kind of okay, 822 00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 4: Like he had three starts and he kind of was 823 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 4: not awful. Like I think it's got to be better 824 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 4: than Zach Wilson, and I just it's not fun taking 825 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 4: under against the Dolphins, like they could just score more 826 00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 4: than forty. 827 00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:07,879 Speaker 3: One on their own. 828 00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:10,399 Speaker 4: So I don't know, I want to have a little 829 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 4: fun on Black Friday. Like I personally wouldn't really have 830 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,160 Speaker 4: been betting the Cowboys game or the Dolphins game, but 831 00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,480 Speaker 4: like it's the Holidays, we're gonna bet these games. So 832 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,600 Speaker 4: if we're gonna beat them, let's have fun. So ceedee 833 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,760 Speaker 4: lamb Tyreek keil Like it's more fun to root for overs, 834 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 4: So let's try to find something that cash for us. 835 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,040 Speaker 5: All right, what the hell, we're already up. I have one. 836 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:30,640 Speaker 5: I'll give out. Well, I have a pick. I have 837 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,360 Speaker 5: a pick that I want to run. 838 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 6: By the crew. This is the moment we speaking of 839 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,359 Speaker 6: Packers Lions. This is so square, but I don't care. 840 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:43,280 Speaker 6: Jamier Gibbs twenty seven and a half receiving yards over. 841 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,600 Speaker 2: I was thinking about his longest rush over. 842 00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 6: That's not what I said, though, Well, okay, what's wrong 843 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,600 Speaker 6: with the receiving yards? He's had thirty five plus receiving 844 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:52,960 Speaker 6: yards in. 845 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,959 Speaker 5: Four straight games. Why is the Why is that number 846 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 5: so low? 847 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,640 Speaker 8: Anybody found a diamond in the rough. 848 00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,359 Speaker 4: I mean, my only thought is that if we think 849 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:05,480 Speaker 4: that the Lions are out big, then like you'd rather 850 00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,600 Speaker 4: have them passing from behind a little bit and get 851 00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 4: some dump as for Gibbs, so that would help the 852 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,400 Speaker 4: total a little bit. But I mean, the numbers have 853 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:11,839 Speaker 4: been there. 854 00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 6: Okay, there you go, Jamior Gibbs over twenty seven and 855 00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,000 Speaker 6: a half receiving yards against packers. 856 00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 4: Wait, are we counting that as an official pick on 857 00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:21,240 Speaker 4: our records for next week? 858 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 5: We can determine that as the uh as perfect. All right, 859 00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:31,120 Speaker 5: very good, that's it. We're done. Thanks everybody for listening. 860 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,680 Speaker 5: You all have a happy Thanksgiving. 861 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,600 Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is presented by our friends at 862 00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:39,160 Speaker 6: bet MGM. Presented by at bet MGM, the King of 863 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 6: sports books. If you missed our other Thanksgiving episodes, they 864 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 6: are live now in your feeds, Ray Bond and Stucky. 865 00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:50,760 Speaker 6: They've got their full betting preview Chris Raybon, Sean Kerner. 866 00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 6: Player projections for the week also out and we'll have 867 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,239 Speaker 6: the recap Monday morning, First Thing with Jill Gallant, Evan Abrams, 868 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,440 Speaker 6: Brandon stops by for a hot red. Don't forget folks 869 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 6: to download the free award winning Action Network app if 870 00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 6: you haven't done so already. You can also find plenty 871 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,240 Speaker 6: of great content in the Action Network Discord server. 872 00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:10,920 Speaker 5: You can shop it. 873 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,279 Speaker 6: Up with the guys and fellow gamblers during the game. 874 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,320 Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast for Dubundo 875 00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:21,160 Speaker 6: Brandon and Luke Brendan glas Sheen. Happy Thanksgiving everybody, We'll 876 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:22,920 Speaker 6: talk to you again next week. 877 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:47,360 Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you. Action Network reminds 878 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:51,239 Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care 879 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,439 Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four 880 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,480 Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler