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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody.
Speaker 1: Hope all of you guys are having a great week
Speaker 1: so far. We are live on AMPS. If you're watching
Speaker 1: on YouTube or listening on the podcast feeds, don't forget
Speaker 1: that AMP is the very first place that you guys
Speaker 1: can get these shows. Today's Memphis Grizzlies Day. They come
Speaker 1: in at number fifteen and our Power Ranking is gonna
Speaker 1: do a deep dive season preview on them. And then
Speaker 1: I've got two mail bag questions for the end of
Speaker 1: the show as well. You guys are the drop before
Speaker 1: we get started, Subscribe to our YouTube channel, follow me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt don't forget about our
Speaker 1: podcast feed under Hoops Tonight and I need mail bag questions.
Speaker 1: Drop those in the YouTube comments so we can hit
Speaker 1: them at the end of our shows. All right, let's
Speaker 1: talk some basketball. So, like usual, we're gonna start with
Speaker 1: an offseason recap. The Grizzlies lost Dylan Brooks to the
Speaker 1: Houston Rockets and free agency, and Tyus Jones was included
Speaker 1: in the Marcus Smart trade. He's now a Washington Wizard.
Speaker 1: They added Josh Christopher, who's a bench guard from the
Speaker 1: Houston Rockets. Talented guard, really good with the ball in
Speaker 1: his hands, not so good with the ball not in
Speaker 1: his hands. But he's a really athletic guard as well.
Speaker 1: Probably not gonna see much room or time in the
Speaker 1: rotation given how deep the Grizzlies are at guard, but
Speaker 1: he's an interesting kind of a pickup for them to
Speaker 1: potentially have some success within the long run. It's got
Speaker 1: to learn how to shoot, though he's shot just twenty
Speaker 1: two percent on catch and shoot jump shots last year
Speaker 1: just set seventeen percent when he was unguarded, so that's
Speaker 1: probably the biggest thing that's going to hold him back
Speaker 1: from getting minutes playing alongside Desmond Bane, John Moran, and
Speaker 1: Jared Jackson. They also signed Derrick Rose. He only played
Speaker 1: in twenty seven games last year for the Knicks, career
Speaker 1: low five point six points per game on forty six
Speaker 1: percent true shooting, but he was good in pick and roll.
Speaker 1: He ran one hundred nine pick and rolls for the
Speaker 1: Knicks last year, leading to one hundred and thirty points.
Speaker 1: That's one point one to nine points per possession, which
Speaker 1: is in the ninety sixth percentile. He also shot fifty
Speaker 1: three percent in effective field goal percentage on pull up
Speaker 1: jump shots, although only thirty five of them. Because like
Speaker 1: we said, he was out of the rotation for most
Speaker 1: of the year. He might play some backup guard while
Speaker 1: John Moran is suspended, but I don't expect him to
Speaker 1: be in the rotation when Jott gets back. There is
Speaker 1: a logjam at the guard position for this Grizzlies team.
Speaker 1: One of the big themes for this show is going
Speaker 1: to be the imbalance in this particular roster. They are
Speaker 1: deep at center and they are deep at guard, but
Speaker 1: they do not have a starting caliber forward on the roster.
Speaker 1: They've got forwards right, guys like Jaron Jackson and Brandon Clark,
Speaker 1: but they function more as bigs on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor. So I mean Jared Jackson can shoot, but
Speaker 1: I mean he's not gonna attack close outs and play
Speaker 1: driving kick the way a guard can. Right, So, for
Speaker 1: all intents and purposes, they've got a lot of centers
Speaker 1: and a lot of guards, but they don't really have forwards,
Speaker 1: and specifically at the guard position, they're stacked, and it's
Speaker 1: going to be hard to find minutes for guys. And
Speaker 1: you know, the reason why this is going to be
Speaker 1: such a hot button topic in this particular show is like,
Speaker 1: you guys who followed the show for a while know
Speaker 1: that the one team that I kind of root for
Speaker 1: really is the Los Angeles Lakers, and I covered them
Speaker 1: for a year and a half when they had no forwards,
Speaker 1: and I've seen how damaging that can be to a
Speaker 1: basketball team when you don't have guys that are between
Speaker 1: six six and six ' nine that can dribble, shoot
Speaker 1: and pass and guard multiple positions and help with crackdown
Speaker 1: rebounding and things along those lines. If you don't have
Speaker 1: those guys, it's hard to be a functional basketball team.
Speaker 1: And I think that's something that has been a problem
Speaker 1: for the Grizzlies even in the past, but losing Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 1: who kind of was one of those guys, is a
Speaker 1: you know, he's a little bit shorter on the shorter side,
Speaker 1: he's six foot six, but he's very big and strong,
Speaker 1: and he took a lot of those primary forward defensive assignments.
Speaker 1: Like losing him, you now don't have a single starting
Speaker 1: caliber forward on the roster, and I think that's something
Speaker 1: that's going to be a little bit of an issue
Speaker 1: for the Grizzlies this year. The lockdam at guard is
Speaker 1: pretty significant. You have John Moran and Desmond Baine, which
Speaker 1: you also have Marcus Smart and Lukenard. You also have
Speaker 1: John conchar and Josh Christopher. You have Derek Rose in there.
Speaker 1: That's seven guards who can probably play minutes if you
Speaker 1: need him to. And so that's one of those things
Speaker 1: that's going to be potentially an issue as the season progresses. Now,
Speaker 1: what Derek Rose will help with a lot is he's
Speaker 1: another grown up in the locker room. I think that
Speaker 1: bringing in Derek Rose and Marcus Smart was a very
Speaker 1: deliberate move by this front office to try to get
Speaker 1: professional basketball players in the room. I think that you know,
Speaker 1: one of the significant issues for the Grizzlies last year
Speaker 1: was the distractions, right you know, you guys know I've
Speaker 1: talked about trash talk on the show. I don't have
Speaker 1: a problem with trash talk. I don't think there's anything
Speaker 1: wrong with trash talk. I'd be lying to you if
Speaker 1: I sat here and said that I've never talked trash
Speaker 1: into basketball game before. Of course, it's part of the game.
Speaker 1: But I think there's a difference between competitive trash talk
Speaker 1: that takes place on the court, which we see all
Speaker 1: over the place in every basketball game in America, and
Speaker 1: then performative trash talk that's directed towards the media. Like,
Speaker 1: for instance, is John Morant gonna walk up to Steph
Speaker 1: Curry in the middle of a game and say, I'm
Speaker 1: fine in the West. No, I don't think he's gonna
Speaker 1: do that, but he went to the media and said
Speaker 1: it right now, Dylan Brooks, he does a little bit
Speaker 1: of both. But there's a lot of performative talk to
Speaker 1: the media. And that's the thing is like Steph says,
Speaker 1: I'm fine in the West, but in order to win
Speaker 1: the West, you've got to beat Lebron and Steph and
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant and nicolea Jokic. He ran into two of
Speaker 1: those guys in the last two years and you lost
Speaker 1: to both of them. So it was a performative stunt
Speaker 1: in the media for whatever reason. Right, nothing wrong with it.
Speaker 1: He's just a kid. He's a kid, and he had
Speaker 1: to learn that lesson, right, Dylan Brooks, same kind of thing.
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, trashing Lebron and say, oh, like
Speaker 1: waxing eloquent about how he's figured out how to guard Lebron.
Speaker 1: You just have to be physical with him and send
Speaker 1: him left. But in a one position game with a
Speaker 1: series at two to one with a chance to tie
Speaker 1: the series, when you needed to stop, Lebron went left
Speaker 1: and beat you for an end one and then you
Speaker 1: lost the series. So, like all that performative stuff, it
Speaker 1: was just a distraction. You'll notice I haven't mentioned Desmond Bain.
Speaker 1: Desmond Bain is a legendary trash talker already in the NBA.
Speaker 1: But the difference is he does it on the court.
Speaker 1: He's not doing it performatively for the media for the fans.
Speaker 1: He's talking trash on the court like a competitor. He's
Speaker 1: looking back to Lebron in a game and saying those
Speaker 1: footsteps aren't scaring anybody, right, Like That's that to me
Speaker 1: is way more normal part of the game of basketball.
Speaker 1: And all of the greats have a certain amount of
Speaker 1: trash talk element to their game, at least most of
Speaker 1: them do. But I think it was important to kind
Speaker 1: of differentiate between those two and understand that the Grizzlies
Speaker 1: were talking and acting like a team that had been
Speaker 1: there and done that, but they had never actually been
Speaker 1: there and done that, and that culture needed to turn over,
Speaker 1: and there were two phases to that. It was get
Speaker 1: Dylan Brooks out of the locker room and then get
Speaker 1: some grown ups in the room to help joh Moran
Speaker 1: with his development. And that's I think the purpose behind
Speaker 1: bringing in Marcus Smart and Derreck Rose, although with Marcus
Speaker 1: Smart there was a second purpose there, which is Jamran
Speaker 1: is suspended for very similar reasons involving his behavior for
Speaker 1: the start of the season for twenty five games, and
Speaker 1: you need somebody who can step in and help you there.
Speaker 1: And Marcus Smart is a legitimate, like you know, like
Speaker 1: not just a starting level NBA guard, but a very
Speaker 1: good starting level NBA guard, And he comes in and
Speaker 1: helps you a lot in that specific situation. That was
Speaker 1: your big splashy roster shakeup for this summer for Memphis Grizzlies,
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart was an excellent or is an excellent defensive guard.
Speaker 1: He won Defensive Player of the Year two years ago.
Speaker 1: Marcusmart had a little bit of a defensive decline last year,
Speaker 1: but that was kind of a team wide issue. And
Speaker 1: those of you guys who've heard me talk about the
Speaker 1: Celtics know that I don't necessarily attribute decline to any
Speaker 1: of those things. Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, and Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: all became lesser defenders without declining his athletes. What does
Speaker 1: that tell you. It tells you. It's a commitment thing,
Speaker 1: It's a culture thing. So I still think that Marcus
Speaker 1: Smart is going to come into Memphis and be an
Speaker 1: excellent defensive guard. He's also a good playmaking guard. He's
Speaker 1: one of only thirteen players in the league last year
Speaker 1: to average at least six assists per game but fewer
Speaker 1: than two point five turnovers per game. He's good at
Speaker 1: manufacturing rim pressure and pick and roll and attacking closeouts.
Speaker 1: He's good at making kickouts to shooters and making drop
Speaker 1: off passes to the dunker spot. He's a great pick
Speaker 1: and roll player. He ran three hundred and fifty eight
Speaker 1: of them last year. One point one eight points per possession.
Speaker 1: That's off the charts good. That's ninety fifth percentile. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, those like there were moments where
Speaker 1: the Celtics offense just looked better when Marcus Marter or
Speaker 1: Derek White were running the offense because they were looking
Speaker 1: to drive and kick, and Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: were going through these growing pains of learning how to
Speaker 1: run an NBA offense. Right, So, like Marcus Smart is
Speaker 1: a good offensive player who's going to help you there.
Speaker 1: Here's a shot making numbers from last year. He was
Speaker 1: efficient at the rim, but at low volume sixty six percent,
Speaker 1: which is great for a guard in the restricted area,
Speaker 1: but only one point two makes per game, so not
Speaker 1: much there. Thirty nine percent effective field goal percentage on
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots, which is not good, but fifty
Speaker 1: one percent on floaters, which is very good. In fifty
Speaker 1: three percent on effectiveield goal percentage on catch and shoot
Speaker 1: jump shots, which is solid. Was not particularly great attacking
Speaker 1: closeouts though he only scored zero point ninety four points
Speaker 1: per possession in spot up situations, which is in the
Speaker 1: thirty third percent tile And I don't even think that's
Speaker 1: necessarily about his passing ability, because when Marcus is driving
Speaker 1: to pass, he can make a lot of plays there.
Speaker 1: Like we talked about earlier, it's more just what every
Speaker 1: single Celtics fan will tell you is Marcus's big weakness,
Speaker 1: which is occasionally he just tries to do too much
Speaker 1: on offense. He will turn a simple situation into a
Speaker 1: complicated situation. He will take a really tough shot when
Speaker 1: there's no need for it. He will look off his
Speaker 1: stars to try to make a play offensively and when
Speaker 1: you probably should have the ball in a better player's hands.
Speaker 1: That's just kind of the nature of the Marcus Smart experience.
Speaker 1: He's super confident and super competitive, which helps him in
Speaker 1: every single phase of the game, except for offensive decision
Speaker 1: making from time to time. But I think most Celtics
Speaker 1: fans would agree that the total package of Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: is totally worth it, and he's very much a talent
Speaker 1: infusion in this roster and is going to make them better.
Speaker 1: So on the surface, when you look at it, just
Speaker 1: from the simple standpoint of adding talent, bringing Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: to the equation is a very very smart move for
Speaker 1: this particular team. But we got to go back to
Speaker 1: the depth chart for a minute, because let's talk about
Speaker 1: the depth chart at guard. Like we talked about earlier,
Speaker 1: we have seven playable guards, John Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Canar,
Speaker 1: Derek Rose, Josh Christopher and John Conchar. The bigs we
Speaker 1: have Jaron Jackson, Steven Adams, Brandon Clark, and Xavier Tilbman
Speaker 1: who played really well in that first round series against
Speaker 1: the Lakers. Like, that's four playable bigs. Two of them
Speaker 1: at least are starter caliber and Steven Adams and Jaron Jackson.
Speaker 1: Brandon Clark is an interesting player that might potentially be
Speaker 1: able to start for a different team around the league
Speaker 1: if he gets if he recovers well from his achilles
Speaker 1: injury right, Like, he's got that level of talent. Brandon
Speaker 1: Clark is a very very interesting player. But as we
Speaker 1: go to the forward position, I've got Zira Williams, who
Speaker 1: is a young player who is still not ready to
Speaker 1: be in a starting forward role. I've got Jake Lavia,
Speaker 1: another twenty one year old forward who's got some offensive
Speaker 1: skill but isn't quite ready, right, And Santel Damo is
Speaker 1: really good who played really well for Spain this summer,
Speaker 1: and a guy that I think is a very interesting player.
Speaker 1: But he's more of like a four than a three
Speaker 1: in the sense that, like, you can't play him alongside
Speaker 1: too bigs, So I don't think he can play when
Speaker 1: John Mourant's out at the starting three, and that leaves
Speaker 1: you with David Roddy. David Roddy in the Intel is
Speaker 1: saying that David Roddy's probably going to start at small
Speaker 1: forward while John Morant's out of the lineup, And like,
Speaker 1: here's the thing. I like David Roddy. He's a good
Speaker 1: physical defender and a smart offensive player, but he's got
Speaker 1: some limitations, not a great shooter, and probably he's best
Speaker 1: served coming off the bench, right. So I just named
Speaker 1: four bench forwards, at least in terms of the perimeter
Speaker 1: interpretation of the forward. And so what confuses me about
Speaker 1: the Marcus Smart trade is just the overall kind of
Speaker 1: process behind it, because when I look at when I
Speaker 1: look at the big picture of this team, right, I've
Speaker 1: got John Morant, this primary shot creator who's an on
Speaker 1: ball type of player, and I've got Desmond Baine, who's
Speaker 1: a primary shot creator as an off ball sort of player.
Speaker 1: So they compliment each other really well. And I've got
Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson who's kind of like the perfect modern five right, Like,
Speaker 1: can have some off the dribble, Jews can play out
Speaker 1: of the post, has a good catch and shoot jump
Speaker 1: shot at this point, and arguably the best rint protector
Speaker 1: in the league. I don't think so. I think he's
Speaker 1: pretty far down on that list, probably in the four
Speaker 1: or five range, but it certainly in volume of blocked shots,
Speaker 1: he's the best rint protector in the league. Right. So, like,
Speaker 1: you've got all of these specific pieces, but you've got
Speaker 1: two guards, and you've got this center, and what you're
Speaker 1: missing is a dynamic forward that can slot between those
Speaker 1: guys that's between six six and six ' nine, that
Speaker 1: is a good spot up player that can guard multiple
Speaker 1: positions and help you on the glass. And they spent
Speaker 1: two draft picks, two first round picks, going after Marcus Smart,
Speaker 1: who's a very good player but is a redundancy at
Speaker 1: this point. He won't be at the start of the season.
Speaker 1: He's gonna make perfect sense filling in for John Morant
Speaker 1: when he's out, and I expect the Grizzlies that hit
Speaker 1: the ground running to start the season and win a
Speaker 1: shit ton of games. But as is always the case
Speaker 1: when I'm talking about this in this particular show, I'm
Speaker 1: always looking at the bigger picture of the NBA playoffs,
Speaker 1: especially with the way the league has changed. Because with
Speaker 1: the way the league has changed now, regular season results
Speaker 1: don't mean as much. We're seeing teams like Memphis and
Speaker 1: Sacramento finish really high in the regular season and then
Speaker 1: get beat by lower seeds that are experienced playoff teams
Speaker 1: when they get to the playoffs. More than ever, in
Speaker 1: the regular season, it matters less because teams are aware
Speaker 1: that it's better just to be healthy when you get there.
Speaker 1: And so the young teams that are athletic and young
Speaker 1: and play hard every night are winning more regular season
Speaker 1: games and getting higher seeds. And then the older veteran
Speaker 1: teams that are more comfortable in the playoffs are coasting
Speaker 1: and load managing and just getting through the season, and
Speaker 1: then they're beating the young teams when we get there.
Speaker 1: And so when I levy this criticism, I don't think
Speaker 1: it's gonna hurt the Grizzlies in the regular season I mean,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about it in a little bit, but I
Speaker 1: expect them to win over fifty games this year, and
Speaker 1: I right away, even without Jaw, I expect Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: to come in and then to start winning. But in
Speaker 1: the bigger picture, if you're gonna get out of the
Speaker 1: Western Conference, if you're gonna beat teams like the Lakers
Speaker 1: that just loaded up on talent this summer, I still
Speaker 1: think they have the same top end weaknesses, but they're
Speaker 1: certainly better than Memphis. And then we've got Golden State,
Speaker 1: who has retooled a little bit. They're probably not as
Speaker 1: good as some of the other teams at the top
Speaker 1: of the West, but they beat Memphis two years ago.
Speaker 1: Denver is gonna be good as shit again, right. Phoenix
Speaker 1: is brought in Bradley Beal and better role players than
Speaker 1: they have last summer. So they're all better. Right, That's
Speaker 1: what you gotta get through. And so it's less about
Speaker 1: can I win fifty games, it's can I beat those teams?
Speaker 1: And right now, you don't have a starting caliber forward
Speaker 1: on the roster. Now here's the thing. Memphis has a
Speaker 1: lot of draft picks that they have access to in
Speaker 1: the future, and so I wonder if this is kind
Speaker 1: of like a a part one of a bigger, kind
Speaker 1: of splashier move, right like, but if they intend to
Speaker 1: flip you know, Luke Kennard's contract and maybe Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: as well, but who knows, is something else for a
Speaker 1: forward at the deadline, and maybe this makes a lot
Speaker 1: more sense, But this team's ultimate ceiling involves Jaron Jackson
Speaker 1: at the five, two really good forwards in John Moran
Speaker 1: and Desmond Bay and making the two first round pick
Speaker 1: trade for Marcus Smart kind of seems like a move
Speaker 1: that is in a different direction in that sense, especially
Speaker 1: when you will let Dylan Brooks go, which I agree with.
Speaker 1: You can't pay Dylan Brooks twenty plus million dollars to
Speaker 1: be a very limited offensive player. Dylan Brooks was literally
Speaker 1: one of the worst offensive players in the league last year.
Speaker 1: There were eighty one players in the NBA eighty if
Speaker 1: you have a ten game limit, so eighty players in
Speaker 1: the NBA last year that attempted at least thirteen shots
Speaker 1: per game. Only one failed to score fifteen points per game,
Speaker 1: and that was Dylan Brooks. So he was the least efficient,
Speaker 1: you know, like volume guy in the league last year.
Speaker 1: So like you needed to let him go, and we
Speaker 1: talked about all the culture stuff earlier, with the distractions,
Speaker 1: you needed to let him go. But he was your
Speaker 1: one starting caliber forward, and now you don't have anybody
Speaker 1: to slide in between there. So now you're gonna have
Speaker 1: guys like David Roddy, who's a good bench player in
Speaker 1: the NBA, playing starters minutes. And then what's our second problem?
Speaker 1: Do you guys remember, Do you guys remember when I
Speaker 1: was talking about the Lakers in a mailback question a
Speaker 1: few games ago or shows ago, and I talked about
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis at the four and the problems that that
Speaker 1: presents because the Lakers' four best players are Austin Reeves,
Speaker 1: Lebron James, who has to play a four, Ruey Hachimura
Speaker 1: who has to play a four, can play some three,
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis, who should play the five. If I
Speaker 1: move ad to playing the four for a few shifts
Speaker 1: a game, now I've got three of my four best
Speaker 1: players playing the same position. Do you see how that
Speaker 1: creates a logjam? Just so you can force minutes for
Speaker 1: a center in there, Like it doesn't make any sense, right,
Speaker 1: That's kind of the situation. With the Marcus Smart heal,
Speaker 1: you bring him in. At first, it makes perfect sense.
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, David Roddy, Jared Jackson, Steven Adams
Speaker 1: were winning a shit ton of games. Everything looks great.
Speaker 1: But John Morant comes back into the picture. He's one
Speaker 1: of the thirty best players in the league. So you
Speaker 1: got you gotta play him, right. He's your franchise players,
Speaker 1: your best player in the long run, so you gotta
Speaker 1: play it. So now that slots Marcus Smart to the three,
Speaker 1: and now I've got a backcourt with a skinny John Morant,
Speaker 1: Desmond Bain who has a six to four wing span,
Speaker 1: and Marcus Smart, who's sixty three, all on the floor
Speaker 1: at the same time because my three best, three of
Speaker 1: my four best players are guards. Now, when you have
Speaker 1: that redundancy, you have to play them all at the
Speaker 1: same time, or you lose minutes in the process because
Speaker 1: you have to play size that that's kind of the problem.
Speaker 1: It's better to have your star talent dispersed. If you
Speaker 1: look at the Lakers, where their best players are a guard,
Speaker 1: two forwards in a center sense, but if you go
Speaker 1: center three guards for the for the Grizzlies have some issues.
Speaker 1: If you go three forwards one guard for the Lakers,
Speaker 1: you start to have some issues. And so that's where
Speaker 1: like in terms of just roster balance, I'd like to
Speaker 1: see the Grizzlies address that in the coming seasons. But
Speaker 1: let's talk about offense and defense, like we did with
Speaker 1: all of the other teams going into the season. I
Speaker 1: want to start with the defense with the Grizzlies because
Speaker 1: it's specifically important, not just because that was what they
Speaker 1: were best at, but also because that was their best offense.
Speaker 1: Because the Grizzlies actually finished the season eleventh in offensive rating,
Speaker 1: but they were twenty second in half court offense according
Speaker 1: to Cleaning the Glass. They relied heavily on getting stops
Speaker 1: and steals to get out and transition for easy baskets.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, they were the number one
Speaker 1: transition frequency offense in the league. They scored or they
Speaker 1: attempted one nine field goals this season in transition according
Speaker 1: to Senergy, that was number one in the entire NBA.
Speaker 1: They were fifteenth in transition efficiency, so they were middle
Speaker 1: of the pack and converting those possessions, which doesn't sound great,
Speaker 1: but it was one point one to four points per possession,
Speaker 1: so they're middle of the pack transition efficiency, it was
Speaker 1: still a one to fourteen offensive rating. To give you
Speaker 1: an idea like, the best half court offense in the
Speaker 1: entire league this year, according to Cleaning the Glass, was
Speaker 1: the Dallas Mavericks, and they scored one hundred and five
Speaker 1: points per one hundred possessions. So even a middle of
Speaker 1: the pack transition offense is almost ten points per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions more efficient than the best half court offense
Speaker 1: in the league. So it was a really smart strategy
Speaker 1: for Memphis. Bad half court offense, but we're athletic and
Speaker 1: we're great at defense, so let's get stops and let's
Speaker 1: run like crazy down the other end. And they had
Speaker 1: a lot of success that way. But you have to
Speaker 1: have a great defense in order to play that way,
Speaker 1: which the Grizzlies absolutely did. They were third in defensive
Speaker 1: ratings last year, number one in half court defense according
Speaker 1: to Cleaning the Glass. They allowed just ninety four points
Speaker 1: per one hundred half court possessions. They were the second
Speaker 1: best team in the entire NBA and protecting the paint,
Speaker 1: they allowed just forty six point six points in the
Speaker 1: paint per one hundred possessions. They were third in the
Speaker 1: league in blocks per one hundred possessions. Opponents shot just
Speaker 1: sixty two point one percent in the restricted area against
Speaker 1: the Memphis Grizzlies, which was the best mark in the
Speaker 1: entire league. So they guard the paint extremely well, and
Speaker 1: there's two reasons for that. One is Jaron Jackson, best
Speaker 1: shot blocker in the league. That obviously deserves a whole
Speaker 1: lot of the credit, but a lot of it was
Speaker 1: by design. This is a pack the paint team. They
Speaker 1: played two bigs and they help off a shooters, They
Speaker 1: dig down into driving lanes, they make you see a
Speaker 1: crowd in the paint, and obviously the trade off with
Speaker 1: that is you give up a lot of threes. They
Speaker 1: gave up the sixth most three point attempts per game
Speaker 1: and the sixth most three pointers made per game. But
Speaker 1: to Taylor Jenkins credit, they were helping off the right people.
Speaker 1: They were top ten in opponent three point percentage, which
Speaker 1: is what allowed them to have the defensive rating they did.
Speaker 1: And they also forced a lot of turnovers eighth most
Speaker 1: in the league, to be exact, fifteen turnovers forced per
Speaker 1: one hunder possession. So you pack the paint to just
Speaker 1: think it through. If you pack the paint and force
Speaker 1: a lot of missed layups, which causes floor balance issues
Speaker 1: which lead to fast break opportunities, and you block a
Speaker 1: lot of shots and you force a lot of missed threes,
Speaker 1: what's happening? Long rebounds, block shots, and missed layups caused
Speaker 1: flour balance issues, right those were just gift wrapping transition
Speaker 1: opportunities for the Memphis grizly. So they did an amazing
Speaker 1: job of using their defense to make up for their
Speaker 1: offensive shortcomings whenever they could. Biggest area of opportunity in
Speaker 1: the Memphis defense right now is rebounding. They were twenty
Speaker 1: second in defensive rebounding. I think it's a couple of
Speaker 1: different things with that. Again, they're giving up a lot
Speaker 1: of threes, which means a lot of long rebounds. This
Speaker 1: is a huge interior team that offensive rebounds extremely well
Speaker 1: Steven Adams, Jaron Jackson and Brandon Clark and Xavior Till.
Speaker 1: But those dudes are bullying people underneath the basket. On offense,
Speaker 1: they average over ten offensive rebounds a game just between
Speaker 1: those four guys. But long rebounds are about guards. And
Speaker 1: you've got a skinny guard, another guard with a short wingspan,
Speaker 1: and Dylan Brooks, who is a somewhat undersized wing. Now
Speaker 1: you don't even have that guy anymore. So that's gonna
Speaker 1: be an even bigger problem in this particular season. Now,
Speaker 1: one of the things that's nice is David Roddy is
Speaker 1: a better rebounder, a much better rebounder than Dylan Brooks was,
Speaker 1: So that should help a little bit. But that's where
Speaker 1: athleticism at the forward position comes in long rebounds. It's
Speaker 1: it's athletes that get long rebounds. You need big, tall,
Speaker 1: long armed athletes to grab those sorts of rebounds. And
Speaker 1: so that's another situation where forwards well helped. This is
Speaker 1: a team that should not be twenty second in defensive rebounding,
Speaker 1: but they are, and it comes down to giving up
Speaker 1: a lot of threes and not having the appropriate amount
Speaker 1: of wing length to secure long rebounds. So, moving to
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the four, we talked about transition earlier.
Speaker 1: I won't get into that. Obviously, another huge way they
Speaker 1: supplement their week half court offenses by attacking the offensive glass.
Speaker 1: They made two hundred and seventy two offensive rebound put
Speaker 1: backs last year. That was the sixth most in the NBA.
Speaker 1: They averaged fifteen second chance points per game last year,
Speaker 1: also sixth most in the NBA. But let's talk about
Speaker 1: their half court offense for a little bit. So regardless
Speaker 1: of how good you are at half court defense, and
Speaker 1: regardless of how good you are at forcing turnovers, and
Speaker 1: regardless of how good you are getting out in transition
Speaker 1: and running, eventually you're gonna find yourself in a slow
Speaker 1: down playoff game, and in a slow down playoff game,
Speaker 1: in the half court, you're gonna have to be able
Speaker 1: to generate shots. And in this particular situation, the biggest problem,
Speaker 1: and again this team was twenty second and half court
Speaker 1: offense according to Cleaning the Glass last year. It starts
Speaker 1: with spacing. For this particular team, the Grizzlies play way
Speaker 1: too many players who are not threats off the ball.
Speaker 1: They converted spot up possessions at zero point ninety nine
Speaker 1: points per possession last year, which ranked twenty seventh in
Speaker 1: the NBA, so the fourth worst mark in the entire NBA.
Speaker 1: That allowed the Lakers to do what they did, which
Speaker 1: is to pack the paint entirely on these Jam Morant
Speaker 1: pick and rolls, which just makes it really difficult to
Speaker 1: play like. This was a really heavy pick and roll offense.
Speaker 1: They ran threey one hundred and sixteen last year, that
Speaker 1: was tenth most in the entire NBA, but they converted
Speaker 1: them at just zero point ninety seven points per possession,
Speaker 1: which ranked twenty fifth in the NBA. Why because it's
Speaker 1: really hard to score and pick and roll when teams
Speaker 1: are ignoring shooters off the ball. Jaw was one of
Speaker 1: the least efficient high volume pick and roll players in
Speaker 1: the league last year. He was out out of the
Speaker 1: fifteen players that ran at least a thousand high volume
Speaker 1: pick and roll list that I've been talking about all summer.
Speaker 1: He was tenth in that list at one point zero
Speaker 1: four points per possession. The Lakers held jam Moran to
Speaker 1: just zero point eight seven points per pick and roll,
Speaker 1: despite John Morant making fourteen pull up jump shots in
Speaker 1: that series. If you Memphis fans, you remember that series,
Speaker 1: Joe was hitting a shot when they were going under picks,
Speaker 1: and they still couldn't even get over nine tenths of
Speaker 1: a point per job pick and roll because they're packing
Speaker 1: the paint. It's a great pick and roll player. Nobody
Speaker 1: can keep him in front off the dribble. He's an
Speaker 1: excellent passer. His jumper is progressing nicely. He was up
Speaker 1: to forty four percent effective field goal percentage on pull
Speaker 1: up jump shots this year, and I expect another leap
Speaker 1: this year. I bet you he's up to forty eight
Speaker 1: percent or so. This year. He shot forty seven percent
Speaker 1: on floaters on massive volume. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: he made one hundred and twenty seven floaters last year,
Speaker 1: which is third most in the entire NBA. But you've
Speaker 1: got to give him space to work. Like I understand,
Speaker 1: I get it. Steven Adams is a great screener. The
Speaker 1: dude averaged like five offensive rebounds a game last year.
Speaker 1: That's awesome. But like, at a certain point, you've got
Speaker 1: to give your skill players what all the other great
Speaker 1: skill players in the league have, which is room to work,
Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about a supreme athlete like Jaw
Speaker 1: who literally no one can guard. And it's amazing that
Speaker 1: he's been as productive as he has been despite that.
Speaker 1: Desmond Bain was the most impressive offensive players for the
Speaker 1: grizz in that Lakers series. If you guys remember, he
Speaker 1: really took over games four and five of that series.
Speaker 1: I thought he was the best player on the floor
Speaker 1: for the last or for those two particular games Game
Speaker 1: four and five, aside from the crazy stretch from Lebron
Speaker 1: at the end of regulation and in ot and Game
Speaker 1: four to steal that game. But he was the most
Speaker 1: reliable guy on both teams getting to spots on the
Speaker 1: floor for half court offense. He uh uh again, Like specifically,
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting the way that Desmond Baine became
Speaker 1: their most efficient half court player at the tail end
Speaker 1: of the Lakers series, because John Moran's a better player
Speaker 1: than Desmond bay. Like that's just a fact. Like Desimond
Speaker 1: bin played better than him in that series, but at
Speaker 1: least at the tail end. But John Rant's a better player.
Speaker 1: But if you're going against a packed paint dribble drive,
Speaker 1: guys are going to really struggle and guys that can
Speaker 1: make shots over the top are going to succeed. Desmond
Speaker 1: Bain sixty one percent effective field goal percent on catch
Speaker 1: and shoot jumpers in the regular season. He shot sixty
Speaker 1: nine percent an effective field goal percentage on catching shoo
Speaker 1: jumpers in the Lakers series. He's also Desmond Bain has
Speaker 1: worked really hard to add an off the dribble game
Speaker 1: to his game. Two years ago he was like or
Speaker 1: three years ago, I should say, like not a good
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooter at all whatsoever. And then this
Speaker 1: year fifty six percent effective field goal percentage on pull
Speaker 1: up jumpers. That's great out of fifty six players to
Speaker 1: attempt at least two hundred and fifty pull up jump shots.
Speaker 1: Last year, Bain ranked sixth in effective field goal percentage,
Speaker 1: so on a lower volume tier, but among the top
Speaker 1: fifty or so pull up shooters, he's top ten. He's
Speaker 1: worked really hard to build that out. Again, three years
Speaker 1: ago not a reliable part of his game. Now it is.
Speaker 1: He was a seventy eighth percentile pick and role player
Speaker 1: this last season. Two years ago he was thirty second
Speaker 1: percent tile. So Desmond Bain has worked really hard to
Speaker 1: add that pull up jump shot and to add that
Speaker 1: off the dribble juice to go with his ridiculous catch
Speaker 1: and shoot game and so big shot against the Lakers
Speaker 1: team that was packing the paint, running that deep drop
Speaker 1: coverage with Anthony Davis at the rim, he was the
Speaker 1: guy that he was able to get over the top
Speaker 1: of screens and bump guys off with his shoulder and
Speaker 1: rise up for those little fifteen foot jump shots and
Speaker 1: knock him down. He was actually giving Austin Reeves a
Speaker 1: lot of problems over game four in game five of
Speaker 1: that particular series with his strength. He's put in the
Speaker 1: work and it's paid off, and that's like, that's the
Speaker 1: really really exciting part. Like he had thirty six in
Speaker 1: game four and thirty three in game five. Like you've
Speaker 1: got John Morant, who's this, you know, guy who's gonna
Speaker 1: be a perennial top twenty player in the league, potentially
Speaker 1: even the top ten if if he figures some stuff out,
Speaker 1: And Desmond bain is working his ass off and like
Speaker 1: going right with him progressing, and he you know, he
Speaker 1: with the giant leaps he's taken every summer. Like at
Speaker 1: this pace, he's very capable of becoming an NBA alsar
Speaker 1: one day. And I haven't even talked about Jared Jackson,
Speaker 1: who we're gonna talk about right now because we as
Speaker 1: much as good as John Moranan and Desmond Baane have gotten,
Speaker 1: Jared Jackson's improving rapidly too. He had a great season.
Speaker 1: He led the leagues in he led the lead league
Speaker 1: in blocks again for the second consecutive year. This time,
Speaker 1: like seven tenths of a block more than he did
Speaker 1: the previous season. He's also making huge strides offensively fifty
Speaker 1: three percent in effective field goal percentage on catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jump shots, fifty eight percent when he's unguarded, so like,
Speaker 1: if you leave him open, he's pretty legit stretch big
Speaker 1: at this point. He also was a legit post up
Speaker 1: threat this year. One hundred and ninety seven post ups,
Speaker 1: one point zero four points per possession, fifty three percent
Speaker 1: on hook shots. Dumped the ball down to him, he
Speaker 1: can get a bucket, and that translated to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: He was attacking Lebron James in that first round series.
Speaker 1: He actually stayed over a point per possession in that
Speaker 1: playoff series against the Lakers out of the post. I
Speaker 1: can't remember the exact number. It was like twenty seven
Speaker 1: post ups. It's not nothing so like that. There's real
Speaker 1: there's real development there. You know. The biggest weakness that's
Speaker 1: standing out to me with Jaron Jacks right now is
Speaker 1: this rim finishing. He just shot just twenty excuse me,
Speaker 1: shot just sixty six percent in the restricted area last year.
Speaker 1: Biggs should always be over seventy percent. But again spacing
Speaker 1: plays a role there two big lineups, You're going into
Speaker 1: his secondary rim protector every time. And again that's the
Speaker 1: kind of the theme here. It's just it's too difficult
Speaker 1: to consistently score in the NBA against the level of
Speaker 1: defensive talent that you're gonna see, especially in later playoff rounds,
Speaker 1: if you have multiple players on the floor that the
Speaker 1: team doesn't have to guard. And what's interesting about it
Speaker 1: in the long run, And I talked about this a
Speaker 1: little bit earlier, but like there's a lot of really
Speaker 1: complimentary stuff going on with the stars, like John Moran,
Speaker 1: an on ball primary shot creator, but that's downhill towards
Speaker 1: the rim. Desmond Bayne, an on ball and off ball
Speaker 1: primary shock. Remember desmon Vane was an excellent spot up
Speaker 1: shooter this year. He also had the thirteenth most buckets
Speaker 1: made in the league coming off of off ball screens.
Speaker 1: He's one of the best movement shooters in the league.
Speaker 1: So you've got an off ball guy that complements John
Speaker 1: Morant perfectly, who's also making these huge, huge strides as
Speaker 1: an un ball shot creator. And then you've got Jaron Jackson,
Speaker 1: who not only is a post up fulcrum who not
Speaker 1: only is a defensive fulk crum but also is a
Speaker 1: legit stretch big, which is so important in the modern NBA.
Speaker 1: So you've got everything you need to be like a
Speaker 1: bona fide championship contender except for what slots between them.
Speaker 1: And right now, part of your problem is you're slotting
Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson at the four, playing a non shooting big
Speaker 1: next to him, and you've got weakness at the forward
Speaker 1: position between Jaron Jackson and Desmond Bay. That's gonna put
Speaker 1: you in a predicament with your spacing in the half court.
Speaker 1: Nine times out of ten, this season feels like a
Speaker 1: gap year from Memphis to me. And that's less about
Speaker 1: the Josh suspension and more about those issues at forward
Speaker 1: and with spacing like I was talking about, and again
Speaker 1: we got to look at the depth at the top
Speaker 1: of the West. But like, you're not gonna beat teams
Speaker 1: like Phoenix or Denver or the Lakers this year if
Speaker 1: you have a glaring flaw and this team has too.
Speaker 1: But the exciting part is they can address those things.
Speaker 1: This Memphis team is really easy to guard in the
Speaker 1: half court there, but as long as they address that
Speaker 1: need at forward, especially two guys preferably as skinnier forward.
Speaker 1: Be it'd be great as Aira Williams can make these leaps,
Speaker 1: but preferably a skinnier forward that can get over the
Speaker 1: top of screens and knock down shots, like a Jade
Speaker 1: McDaniels type, right. And then a stronger forward who's bigger
Speaker 1: and can and and can help you in post up
Speaker 1: situations against power players and help you as a low
Speaker 1: man as a rim protector, and help you with defensive rebounding.
Speaker 1: Think is like think like the Aaron Gordon archetype, right.
Speaker 1: And another guy who might even be available for trade
Speaker 1: this this year is a guy like Jeremy Grant, a
Speaker 1: really good athlete who can play off the ball, has
Speaker 1: some off the dribble bounce pop and it slots really
Speaker 1: no ically between those guys like. They need to find
Speaker 1: those two needs, and if they do, I think they
Speaker 1: have the chance to contend year in and year out,
Speaker 1: because that's how high I think of John Morant, Desmond Bayne,
Speaker 1: and Jaron Jackson. But they've got to provide them the
Speaker 1: appropriate players to slot them properly and orient them properly
Speaker 1: as a modern basketball team. That's it. I still think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win about fifty games. I still think they're
Speaker 1: gonna get home court in the first round, and they
Speaker 1: might even win a first round series if they get
Speaker 1: a good matchup. But I don't think this team is
Speaker 1: getting out of the second round, and I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if they lost in the first round. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on to our mail bag. So first mail
Speaker 1: back question from kleb who do you think would have
Speaker 1: won between the Rockets and the Cavs in the twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen finals if the Rockets had won Game seven instead
Speaker 1: of the Warriors, and now Harden and CB three's legacy
Speaker 1: would have looked differently if they won or Lebron won.
Speaker 1: So I thought a lot about this, obviously, I was
Speaker 1: thinking about it at the time, and the answer to
Speaker 1: me is pretty simple. Had Chris Paul been able to
Speaker 1: recover and play in the NBA Finals, I think they
Speaker 1: would have beat the Caves. The CAS team was not
Speaker 1: very talented, but had Chris Paul stayed hurt, but they
Speaker 1: somehow beat the Warriors in Game seven, which everybody wants
Speaker 1: to attribute to just them missing threes, but really the
Speaker 1: Warriors were just playing a better brand of basketball. And
Speaker 1: if you watch the threes that the Rockets took, they
Speaker 1: were taking a lot of bad shots in that game.
Speaker 1: Had they gone into the NBA Finals with just hardened
Speaker 1: in role players against Lebron in role players, you bet
Speaker 1: your ass and picking Lebron James. He was the best
Speaker 1: player in the world at that time and twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: Lebron is the best individual basketball player I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is is that's what if, and
Speaker 1: that's not what happened. And Chris Paul did not return,
Speaker 1: but they couldn't beat the Warriors, and then the greatest
Speaker 1: team of all time, the Warriors went in and kicked
Speaker 1: the shit out of the Caves. But yeah, that's the
Speaker 1: answer to that question. Chris Paul healthy, I'd picked the
Speaker 1: Rockets over the Calves. Chris Paul not healthy. I'd picked
Speaker 1: the Calves over the Rockets. All right. Last mail back
Speaker 1: question from Ralph. Hey, Jason, my first time commenting. I
Speaker 1: hope you haven't gotten this question too much, But why
Speaker 1: do you think nobody uses the sky hook anymore? Hate
Speaker 1: to break it to you, Ralph, You're the first guy
Speaker 1: to ask me about the sky hook, but let's talk
Speaker 1: about it. So it's really simple to me. Like, the
Speaker 1: reason why uh, nobody uses the sky hook is because
Speaker 1: the half hook accomplishes basically the same thing and as
Speaker 1: much easier to make. So the sky hook just think
Speaker 1: of it like this, like I'm gonna move my mic
Speaker 1: a little bit to make this possible. But the skyhook,
Speaker 1: I'm way out on the side, right if the baskets here,
Speaker 1: I'm going way out on the side with the shot right,
Speaker 1: and it's just a really difficult maneuver to make. A
Speaker 1: half hook is more like the baskets where you guys are,
Speaker 1: and I'm turning my shoulder and I'm shooting like that,
Speaker 1: and it's more like a floater, and it more closely
Speaker 1: mimics the end release more closely mimics that of a
Speaker 1: jump shot, and so or a floater, right, so it
Speaker 1: has more of like a natural shooting release to it,
Speaker 1: and so a half hook, even though it doesn't quite
Speaker 1: generate the same amount of separation as a sky hook does,
Speaker 1: you can still get it off as long as you
Speaker 1: bump the guy with your left shoulder and then go
Speaker 1: to the to the half hook, and it's a shot.
Speaker 1: Guys can make it a significantly higher percentage so I
Speaker 1: think that's the main reason why as a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: I would look at the skyhook as more like a
Speaker 1: funky shot release in the terms of like a jump shot. Right, So, like,
Speaker 1: what's a good example of this, Like think of guys
Speaker 1: like Kevin Martin or Sean Mary and the guys who
Speaker 1: just had really funky shot releases, Like Kareem just had
Speaker 1: a really funky hook shot that uniquely worked for him,
Speaker 1: or he could knock that down at a high rate.
Speaker 1: But like if I gave, you know, all of the
Speaker 1: best bigs in the league, you know, one hundred shots
Speaker 1: on regular standard sky hooks, they're not gonna make half
Speaker 1: as many as they would with half hooks because it's
Speaker 1: just a more natural shooting motion. So and for the record,
Speaker 1: like I think if Kareem comes up today, I think
Speaker 1: he takes a half hook instead of a skyhook and
Speaker 1: probably still kicks everyone's ass with that. So that's again
Speaker 1: my two cents on that. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: like I don't know, maybe some guy will come in
Speaker 1: and start making skyhooks and change the league again, who knows?
Speaker 1: All right, guys, that is all I have for today
Speaker 1: is always as sincerely appreciate your support. We will be
Speaker 1: back with number fourteen tomorrow. The volume