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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 1: It's time for history. They were all in line. We're

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Speaker 1: ready for the start. They're off in the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 1: We'll rank another two legs, four back to with wind

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Speaker 1: on the turn begin the Kip mcuffs ride near the

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Speaker 1: bank of the pen. As the field turns for home.

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Speaker 3: Any person doing opening on the outside, it's trying first drive.

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Speaker 1: As they come to the final prolong kick medling on

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Speaker 1: what's droven on to the line, what a possible result here?

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Speaker 1: Welsh that Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast Kentucky Derby Betting Preview,

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Speaker 3: presented by Twin Spires. I'm Sean Zerrilla, joined today by

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Speaker 3: Action Network contributor Mike Conti.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna take you through the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: Oaks, and the undercards for both Friday and Saturday.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna jump right into it here.

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Speaker 3: Let's go straight to the main event of the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 3: going to post time at six fifty seven pm Eastern

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Speaker 3: at Churchill Downs on Saturday. It is race number twelve

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Speaker 3: and we need to talk about the pace first because

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Speaker 3: unlike past editions of the Kentucky Derby, the past eight

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Speaker 3: editions a horse in the top three ended up crossing

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Speaker 3: the finish line first. I think we have a much

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Speaker 3: more honest pace this time. The other thing I need

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Speaker 3: to mention is the morning line odds. A lot of

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Speaker 3: these odds actually seem pretty short.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: When you project a win probability for race a game,

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Speaker 3: whatever you have, you should add up to one hundred percent. Typically,

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Speaker 3: with the veig added onto a horse book for any race,

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Speaker 3: you're going to get a line that adds up about

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty five percent. This Kentucky Derby line

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Speaker 3: is extra juice. It adds up to about one hundred

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Speaker 3: and forty percent. So most of these odds will get

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Speaker 3: a little bit longer come Derby time. And the other

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Speaker 3: thing we need to mention is mattress Mac, who is

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Speaker 3: going to determine single handedly the post time favorite because

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Speaker 3: he needs to hedge out of.

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Speaker 1: His furniture promotions.

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Speaker 3: Personally, I'm hoping he bets the number three Epicenter because

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Speaker 3: the top two choices in this race, the number ten

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Speaker 3: zan On and the number three Epicenter.

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Speaker 1: I definitely prefers Zanden. He is the morning line favorite.

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Speaker 3: Not sure if he'll be the post time favorite, but

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Speaker 3: he is the horse for me in this race. Love

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Speaker 3: everything about him, and he's working as well as any

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Speaker 3: horse at Churchill Downs over the past couple weeks, which

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Speaker 3: is what has made him potentially the morning line favorite

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Speaker 3: and the post time favorite as well. Epicenter, I'm a

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Speaker 3: little bit against, don't love his draw. Has the main

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Speaker 3: speed horse who's outside the number four, and being on

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Speaker 3: the inside, he may eventually.

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Speaker 1: Face a crush of horses coming over.

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Speaker 3: He wants to be on or near the lead up

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Speaker 3: in that first or second flight of horses, and I

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Speaker 3: don't necessarily think he's gonna get there, and even if

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Speaker 3: he does, he may end up getting blocked by traffic.

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Speaker 3: The other contenders that we have to talk about, there's

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Speaker 3: three more that can actually win this race pretty consistently,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, the number twelve Taiba. He is the

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Speaker 3: fastest horse in the race, and I think he's the

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Speaker 3: key to the whole race.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: He's only run I believe, two or three races, and

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Speaker 3: both of those were against six horse fields, but he

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Speaker 3: is the fastest horse on speed figures here and I

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Speaker 3: am not the type of person to fade the fastest

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Speaker 3: horse in the field based on speed figures. I'm not

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Speaker 3: gonna go against them just because he hasn't faced this

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Speaker 3: level of competition. I also think the horse racing game

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Speaker 3: is changing a little bit. We're seeing horses who are

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Speaker 3: less experienced run in the derby more often than we

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Speaker 3: have in the past. The other two, the number one Modonnegle,

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Speaker 3: drew the rail. I think the rail hurts him less

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Speaker 3: than it does any other potential horse in this field.

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Speaker 3: And also the number six Messia. He probably wants to

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Speaker 3: be honor near the lead as well. Not sure if

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Speaker 3: he's going to carry the distance, but of the two

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Speaker 3: Sanay and Ehber derby horses, he is the one that

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Speaker 3: I prefer. Kanti, we're gonna get some to some horses

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Speaker 3: that we're tossing in a minute. Do you think there's

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Speaker 3: another main wing contender aside from that five? And of

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Speaker 3: the top two choices, who do you prefer?

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Speaker 4: John? I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I'm very much against. I shouldn't say against, but I'd

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Speaker 2: prefer to go in other directions than Epicenter will definitely

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Speaker 2: use in multi race wagers. I agree with with zand

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Speaker 2: on he's gonna have to work out a trip.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 2: Everybody says, oh, well, he got to work out a

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Speaker 2: trip in the Bluegrass. I don't know how much of

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Speaker 2: a trip he really worked out. He hugged the rail

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Speaker 2: it opened up. You know. In terms of the pace,

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Speaker 2: I think you mentioned it. The other horse that I

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Speaker 2: do like in here. There's two other horses at a

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Speaker 2: price that I think we'll talk a little bit about

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Speaker 2: cyber Knife number sixteen twenty to one, a big price,

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Speaker 2: the Arkansas Derby winner, and the other horse that is

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Speaker 2: my long shot play number nineteen Zozos coming out of

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Speaker 2: that same Louisiana Derby against Epicenter. I know that he

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Speaker 2: lost against Epicenter, And you're gonna say, if you're not

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Speaker 2: gonna like Epicenter, how.

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Speaker 4: Do you like Zozo's.

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Speaker 2: We can go into it a little later on. But

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Speaker 2: you know, Sean overall agree with everything that you said.

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Speaker 2: We are going to get a much faster pace, I

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Speaker 2: think than what we've seen in a much more contended

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Speaker 2: pace than what we've seen in years past. The only

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Speaker 2: other thing that I will point out in all of this, right,

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Speaker 2: I think a little bit of the elephant in the

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Speaker 2: room is. While Bob Bafford doesn't technically train any of

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Speaker 2: the horses in this year's Derby after last year, there

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Speaker 2: are two horses that Bafford previously trained. Both horses that

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Speaker 2: you've mentioned, number six Messia, as well as number twelve Taba.

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Speaker 2: They've since obviously been transferred to other Barnes six plus

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. You know, Taba's morning line at twelve to one,

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Speaker 2: that's never gonna hold. I think if you look at

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Speaker 2: a lot of the lines right now, Taba's floating in

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Speaker 2: that like nine to two, fish range five to one.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think similar potentially to last year.

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Speaker 2: You know, Messia, Yeah, didn't run a great race in

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Speaker 2: the Santa Nita Derby. You know, did the horse maybe

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Speaker 2: need that race? And Ken he come back stronger. He's

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Speaker 2: got Johnny v who won last year with Medina's spirit,

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Speaker 2: So what does that look like? I think we're in

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Speaker 2: for a treat this year.

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Speaker 4: Sean.

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Speaker 1: I agree as well.

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Speaker 3: I think this is one of the deepest Derby fields

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Speaker 3: in a while, and I think the race, the way

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Speaker 3: the race sets up, it's going to be a really

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Speaker 3: fun stretcher on I'm actually not sure who's going to

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Speaker 3: come out on top, because I think it's going to

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Speaker 3: come down to traffic, who's able to get out and

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Speaker 3: the clear, and who's able to work at a trip,

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Speaker 3: and in the twenty fourths field, you never really know

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Speaker 3: what's going to be the case as far as getting

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Speaker 3: a good trip. Let's talk some horses that were tossing.

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Speaker 3: I like to narrow down the fields first before I

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Speaker 3: get into for my top selections who I'm using underneath,

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Speaker 3: So let's talk some tosses. There's five horses that I

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Speaker 3: have no interest in using. The number two Happy Jack,

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Speaker 3: the number four Summers Tomorrow, who I mentioned I expect

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Speaker 3: to be the early pacesetter, the number seventeen Classic Causeway,

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Speaker 3: who also wants to be on or near the lead,

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Speaker 3: The number eighteen Tawny Point, and the number twenty A

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Speaker 3: THEEO Road.

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Speaker 1: There's also two other.

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Speaker 3: Horses I'm against, just based on how they're working around

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Speaker 3: the Churchill down the track this week. The number five

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Speaker 3: Smile Happy. That may be a little controversial. I know

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Speaker 3: a lot of people like that horse underneath, but he

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Speaker 3: keeps getting warm and training, and the temperatures haven't been

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Speaker 3: particularly warm, so if he's getting Mormon training in the

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Speaker 3: morning when it's cool. I do not love him come

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Speaker 3: post time on Derby Day. The number nineteen tis the

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Speaker 3: bomb as well. Wouldn't be surprised if the five or

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Speaker 3: the nine hit on the board just based on talent,

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Speaker 3: But I'm not really interested in using either of them.

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Speaker 3: So that's a list of seven horses. Do you disagree

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Speaker 3: with any of those seven.

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Speaker 1: That I mentioned?

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Speaker 3: And would you add any to that list? The horses

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Speaker 3: that you're scratching from your potential candidates.

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Speaker 4: So the only thing, for the most part, I agree

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Speaker 4: with you, Sean.

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Speaker 2: The one that I disagree with is what you mentioned

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Speaker 2: smile Happy number five. I do think that he stands

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Speaker 2: a chance to at the very least hit the board.

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Speaker 2: You know, he ran a great Bluegrass. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 2: Zanden won that race and won that race going away,

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Speaker 2: you know, can smile Happy improve off of that. Another

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Speaker 2: angle that I really like when it comes to the

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Speaker 2: Derby is horses that are able to pair their first

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Speaker 2: two buyer speed figures coming into their three year old

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Speaker 2: in tend to make a jump up in the buyer

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Speaker 2: speed figure in that third race. Smile Happy has done

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Speaker 2: just that in the Bluegrass, and the resident star having

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Speaker 2: a ninety four, and both of those races, the Risen

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Speaker 2: Star was his first race as a three year old,

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Speaker 2: the Bluegrass also.

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Speaker 4: A ninety four.

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Speaker 2: If he's able to take a step up the one

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Speaker 2: horse that you didn't mention that I'm tossing. And I

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Speaker 2: know that this is going against all of the wise

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Speaker 2: guys out there, but I'm tossing number seven Crown Pride.

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Speaker 2: I just don't see it with this horse. Listen, if

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Speaker 2: he hits the board, if he wins, good for him.

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Speaker 2: I cannot use this horse. No horse coming from the

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Speaker 2: UAE Derby has ever really done much. I don't know

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Speaker 2: as though that I trust this horse. I know that

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Speaker 2: he's been the talk of the town. You know, if

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Speaker 2: the track is still wet Saturday evening, which I don't

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Speaker 2: expect it to be, but you never know with mother nature.

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Speaker 2: I have less than zero trust in this horse on

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Speaker 2: any bit of a wet track, So that the other

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Speaker 2: horse in here that I would absolutely be be tossing.

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Speaker 2: And it's not necessarily because of the horse. It's because

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Speaker 2: of what I believe the horse is going to go

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Speaker 2: off at in terms of odds that I think don't

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Speaker 2: allow for any value.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's a fair point.

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Speaker 3: I'm actually going to disagree because I am going to

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Speaker 3: use him actually pretty extensively. I love the way this

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Speaker 3: horse has been working, but like you said, he is

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Speaker 3: the main buzz horse, probably aside from Zanden, just based

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Speaker 3: on his recent works. His last work around the track

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Speaker 3: was absolutely ridiculous. I believe he clipped off his finer

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Speaker 3: quarter mile in under twenty two seconds. He definitely wants

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Speaker 3: the distance, has run nine furlongs multiple times. It's tough

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Speaker 3: to gauge the horses coming over from the UE Derby

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Speaker 3: because we don't really have normal speed figures and you

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Speaker 3: kind of have to figure that out on your own.

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Speaker 3: But based upon how he's training, based upon how he looks,

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Speaker 3: I certainly think he can hit the boarding here, if

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Speaker 3: not even potentially find a way to victory. His push

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Speaker 3: button speed seems like it's there, and the way he

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Speaker 3: sort of glides around the track without needing to be

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Speaker 3: pushed at all, I think he's actually the legitimate contender.

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Speaker 3: And I think the fact that none of the Japanese

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Speaker 3: horses have run particularly well. I think the best finish

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Speaker 3: for Japanese horse in the Derby was Lannie, who finished sixth,

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Speaker 3: and then I don't believe more than Lanni. Potentially one

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Speaker 3: other has even placed in any of the Kentucky or

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Speaker 3: I should say, Triple Crown races, So Crown Pride is

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Speaker 3: the one for me. Compared to these other horses that

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Speaker 3: have come over from Japan, I think he's much more talented,

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Speaker 3: and I really think the Japanese horses have leveled up

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Speaker 3: over time.

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Speaker 1: Multiple wins of the.

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Speaker 3: Breeders Cup last year, so I think they're finally catching

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Speaker 3: up potentially, and eventually one of them is going to

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Speaker 3: slip into the money Kenny win. I'm not sure, but

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Speaker 3: I do think he can hit the board. The other

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Speaker 3: two long shots that I like, the number thirteen Slimplification

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Speaker 3: and the number sixteen cyber Knife you already mentioned cyber

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Speaker 3: Knife gun Runner is my all time favorite horse so far.

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Speaker 3: Be it for me to leave Taiba or cyber Knife

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Speaker 3: off of my tickets. They'll both definitely be on there,

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Speaker 3: regardless of tabas price. Cyber Knife training is any horse

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Speaker 3: as well, and I love the connections simplification of the

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Speaker 3: two horses from the Florida Derby with White Barrio. I

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Speaker 3: actually prefer him, thought he did maybe better work just

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Speaker 3: faded down the stretch. Not sure if he's gonna want

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Speaker 3: the distance, but based on what I've seen on the

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Speaker 3: gallopouts as he trains leading up to the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 3: actually do think it's going to be in his favor.

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Speaker 3: So CyberKnife simplification the sixteen to thirteen, and I mentioned

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Speaker 3: Crown Pride the number seven, even though Kanti isn't a fan.

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Speaker 3: Were you looking for your top long shots from these

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Speaker 3: price horses about fifteen to one or higher?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think first and foremost. Let me

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Speaker 2: just say, you know, I hear everything that you're saying,

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Speaker 2: and I don't disagree. I just think there's so much

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Speaker 2: buzz around the horse that I just can't get myself

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Speaker 2: around this. I mean, I've seen things that are saying

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Speaker 2: that this horse could go off at like four to one,

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Speaker 2: and there's just there's just no way that I can

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Speaker 2: find any bit of value to say, Okay, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: play this horse at four to one because of the

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Speaker 2: way that he's working.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I just I have a hard time there. Listen.

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Speaker 2: I think my top long shot at fifteen to one

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Speaker 2: or greater is number nineteen.

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Speaker 4: Zozos I mentioned earlier.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's coming out of that same Louisiana Derby

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Speaker 2: race as Epicenter. You know, while I don't think that

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Speaker 2: Epicenter looked amazing in there and clearly Epicenter beat Zozos,

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Speaker 2: I also don't think that Zozos is a horse that

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Speaker 2: wants the lead but naturally just got the lead in

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Speaker 2: that race. And Zozo's isn't going to have the lead

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Speaker 2: in this race. And with that outside post, I do

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Speaker 2: think that he's going to be able to work out

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Speaker 2: the right trick. He's going to be able to put

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Speaker 2: you know, jockey Manni Franco is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to put this horse kind of where he wants in

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Speaker 2: a stalking position. The biggest concern for Zozos is how

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Speaker 2: wide does he get caught in that first turn being

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Speaker 2: all the way out in post nineteen. But if he's

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Speaker 2: able to use that tactical speed to be close and

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Speaker 2: only be three or four wide going into that first turn,

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Speaker 2: I think he stands a big chance at twenty to one.

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Speaker 2: You know you mentioned we both talked cyber Knife. Listen,

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Speaker 2: that horse, in my opinion, did nothing wrong in the

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Speaker 2: Arkansas Derby. He wandered a little bit he showed. I

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Speaker 2: think a little bit of greenness in the stretch run there,

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Speaker 2: but I'm okay with that right. Let a horse continue

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Speaker 2: to progress coming out of the brad Cox bar. And

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Speaker 2: I feel like these days, you know Brad Cox Is,

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Speaker 2: he's no longer an up and coming trainer.

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Speaker 4: He's made it. He's there.

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Speaker 2: It's only a matter of time before his horse finishes

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Speaker 2: in first in the derby, not gets placed first in

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Speaker 2: the derby. So let's talk our favorite wing contenders in

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Speaker 2: multi race wagers. I'm probably or definitely, I should say,

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Speaker 2: IM going to use the number ten Zand and I'm

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Speaker 2: probably also going to use the number twelve Taba and.

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Speaker 1: The number one Modonnegal.

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Speaker 3: We mentioned the fact that Taba isn't that doesn't have

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Speaker 3: that much experience relative to his peers. Wasn't race as

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Speaker 3: or two year old, so he has the curse of Apollo.

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Speaker 3: We saw Justify break that Zozo's actually falls in a

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Speaker 3: similar category only three lifetime starts.

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Speaker 1: I believe also didn't race as a two year old.

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Speaker 3: But for me, it's the number one Modonegal, who I

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Speaker 3: think should work out a decent trip even from the inside,

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Speaker 3: has a great jockey on board and should find a

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Speaker 3: late run on this race. The number ten zand In

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Speaker 3: and the number twelve Taiba. Those are the horses I'm

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Speaker 3: going to end up finishing my pick five wagers with.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to the other four races in that pick

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Speaker 3: five sequence. How many horses are you considering using in

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Speaker 3: multi race wagers? And who are your A and b's.

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Speaker 3: So it's funny, Sean, I don't know if you remember this.

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Speaker 3: Last year, Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz also were in

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Speaker 3: the one hole with non agenda, and that was my

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Speaker 3: top pick in that race, And for better or for worse,

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Speaker 3: modonegall is my top pick in here.

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Speaker 2: If there's a horse you mentioned it earlier, I'll say

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Speaker 2: it again. If there's a horse that's able to overcome

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Speaker 2: the one hole, which is not the one hole of

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Speaker 2: yester years anyway, it's going to be Modonagall, right. The

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Speaker 2: closing style of that kick. If you go back and

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Speaker 2: you watch that Wood memorial, he actually did have to

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Speaker 2: work out a trip. He hugged the rail, then he's

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Speaker 2: got a swing wide. He had to navigate, in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: much more traffic than Zanden did in Zanden's race. So

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Speaker 2: Mo Donegal is going to be my top selection after

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Speaker 2: last year, and I know again it's technically not Bafford,

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Speaker 2: but after last year, I've told myself I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to get beat in multi race wagers by a Bafford

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00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,080
Speaker 2: horse or a previously trained Bafford horse. So I will

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Speaker 2: definitely be using number six Messia, and I will also

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Speaker 2: be using the number twelve Taba as well as Zanden,

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Speaker 2: and I will also be including Zozos just as a

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Speaker 2: long shot in there. So I will be using five

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Speaker 2: in the multi race wagers. We'll get into why I'm

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Speaker 2: going a little bit deeper other than the fact that

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Speaker 2: it's the Derby in a little while.

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Speaker 4: Because Sneak Peek, I do have a single.

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Speaker 3: Well, I get because I had a very difficult time

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Speaker 3: finding a single in that sequence. Okay, let's talk other

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Speaker 3: horses to use underneath in Derby exotics real quick, and

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Speaker 3: then we'll move on to the Oak and the rest

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Speaker 3: of the cards. For both days, I'm using the number nineteen.

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Speaker 3: Zoso's completely agree with you. You use final fraction theory.

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Speaker 3: He absolutely falls into the category of potential winners in

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Speaker 3: this race. Based on that criteria, so he can definitely

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Speaker 3: hit the board at his price.

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Speaker 1: The number fifteen White to Barrio. He was the Florida

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Speaker 1: Derby winner, trained extremely well at goal streaming leading up

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Speaker 1: to this race, good reports on him at Churchill Downs.

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Speaker 1: Don't necessarily know if he wants the distance, but absolutely

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Speaker 1: live day at the board. The number fourteen Barbara Road.

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Speaker 3: Probably the longest of the odds on my potential exotic

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Speaker 3: tickets thirty to one in the morning. Line may go

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Speaker 3: off even higher on Derby Day, but if we're expecting

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Speaker 3: a fast pace, Barbara Road is going to be running

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Speaker 3: late and passing tired horses, so I think he's absolutely

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Speaker 3: live to finish third or fourth. The one that I

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Speaker 3: disagree with in terms of my own opinion, but I

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Speaker 3: respect other people's opinions enough to include him. The number

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Speaker 3: eleven Pioneer of Medina. Don't love him personally, but enough

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Speaker 3: people I respect are using him that I'll probably end

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Speaker 3: up sticking him on my tickets, and then the number

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Speaker 3: eight charge it. I think he's the best from the

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Speaker 3: Pletcher barn. Maybe he's your belm On Stakes winner.

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Speaker 1: This might be too.

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Speaker 3: Much too soon, a bit of a head case, but

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00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,959
Speaker 3: absolutely talented son of tap It. I think he's primed

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Speaker 3: for a big race, and the fact that Plutcher is

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Speaker 3: including him here I think is encouraging. Of that list

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Speaker 3: of five. Is there any that you prefer to the others?

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Speaker 3: How do you feel about Pioneer Medina any that I missed?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I I tend to agree with with

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Speaker 2: everybody that you said. I'm not a fan of Way

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Speaker 2: to Barrio. I agree that Barbara Road is going to

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Speaker 2: be running late. And I got news for you, Jocky

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Speaker 2: raylu Gutierrez has been riding really well throughout the winter,

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Speaker 2: this spring and even into the early parts of this

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Speaker 2: This Churchill downs meat, so it would not surprise me

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Speaker 2: to see him catch catch a piece of this. You know,

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Speaker 2: I think we talked about most of the others already,

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Speaker 2: so there's nobody else that I'm going to be using.

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Speaker 2: I think the only horse that we haven't really talked

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Speaker 2: much about that I'll definitely use is Epicenter, and frankly,

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Speaker 2: in order to potentially make a SuperFect a tick get

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Speaker 2: a little bit more reasonably priced, I may actually single

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Speaker 2: Epicenter in like two, three, and four and then go

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Speaker 2: deeper in some of those other spots, So saying, okay,

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Speaker 2: I do think that Epicenter is going to be a

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Speaker 2: top four finisher, I don't think that he's going to win.

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Speaker 2: And that way you can keep that super effect. A

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Speaker 2: ticket priced down in a little bit more reasonable than

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Speaker 2: if you were just to box.

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Speaker 4: You know, six or seven horses.

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Speaker 3: So the way I'm probably building out my tries my

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Speaker 3: my super I'm probably going to try to single zand

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00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 3: It on one line, probably put Crown Pride Simplification and

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00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 3: CyberKnife on another line, and then maybe have about eight

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00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 3: to ten horses on a third line, maybe switch lines

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00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,400
Speaker 3: two and three. But having Zanin on top, I think

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Speaker 3: that's the way I'm going to find value on potentially

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Speaker 3: the post time favorite.

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Speaker 4: Again.

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Speaker 3: I'm hoping Mattress Mac comes in and bets Epicenter so

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Speaker 3: I get a little bit of a better price than

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Speaker 3: zand In. But it's the number ten zan In for me,

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Speaker 3: It's the number one Moggonaghal for Conti, and then our

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Speaker 3: favorite long shots underneath the number seven Crown Pride for me,

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Speaker 3: the number nineteen Zozos for Conti. As a reminder, this

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00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,679
Speaker 3: is the Action Network podcast Kentucky Derby preview presented by

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00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,720
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00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 3: talk about the Kentucky Oaks, the other main event this weekend,

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00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 3: going to post Friday at five point fifty one pm

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Speaker 3: Eastern Race eleven on the Kentucky Oaks Day Card. So

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Speaker 3: there's rain in the forecast for Friday, and this has

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Speaker 3: me hesitant about betting the entire Oaks Day card. Generally speaking,

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Speaker 3: I avoid betting races where there's rain in the forecast,

431
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,199
Speaker 3: avoid betting what or sloppy tracks. Maybe we get a

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Speaker 3: wet fast track and that sort of nullifies my concerns,

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Speaker 3: But by and large, I really want to stay away

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Speaker 3: from this card. I'm going to bet the Oaks because

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Speaker 3: I have to bet the Oaks, and you got to

436
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,959
Speaker 3: play that Oaks Derby double. Now there's four main wing

437
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: contenders in here, and I think everybody seems to be

438
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 3: picking one of these four horses to win the race.

439
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 3: That's the morning line favorite, the number four Nests five

440
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 3: to two, the number ten Kathleen Oh, who may be

441
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 3: the most most talented horse in the field. She's seven

442
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 3: to two, the two year old champion, the number seven

443
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 3: Akozulu four to one, and the number one secret Oath

444
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 3: sitting at six to one. Nest has a win last

445
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 3: out over a wet track, fast track, but still wet track,

446
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 3: so that may move her up if it is wet

447
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 3: on Oaks Day. Echozula is seemingly regressed after her two

448
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 3: year old campaign. I said she was the two year

449
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 3: old champion. Maybe the other horses have caught up to her.

450
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 3: That is very common between two and three that you

451
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: see not necessarily regression, but that everybody catches up to

452
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 3: the horse who was previously best. I mentioned Kathleen Oh

453
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 3: maybe the most talented. Horry not a good workhorse, and

454
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 3: that is the one thing that concerns me. Very tough

455
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: to gauge how she's doing coming into a race because

456
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 3: she doesn't necessarily fire off great works. But that has

457
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 3: always been the case with her, and I think you

458
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 3: almost have to include her because it's an unknown, but

459
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 3: I think she's the most talented in the field. And

460
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 3: then Secret Oath has the speed scores that could bete

461
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 3: with anyone, but getting six to one on those odds

462
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 3: relative to the other prizes, maybe Secret Oath is the

463
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 3: horse to use tanti of those four main wing contenders,

464
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: I think I actually prefer Nests bit shocky. I know,

465
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 3: I don't love it, but considering we have rain in

466
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: the forecast, probably moves her up for me. How do

467
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 3: you feel about the top four win contenders? And do

468
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: you see anybody else winning this race?

469
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 2: So first and foremost, I love Secret Oath in this race.

470
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 2: I actually think that she should have could have obviously

471
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: didn't win the Arkansas Derby against the boys. I'll go

472
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 2: more into detail on that in a second. I think,

473
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: to your point, it's these four, you know, and I

474
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 2: laugh at people who have anything against Echo Zulu. It

475
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 2: was her first race in three and a half months.

476
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: She might have needed the race. She's still won. She's

477
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 2: the only horse in the field that's a perfect five

478
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: for five in her career and at four to one,

479
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: it just makes me scratch my head a little bit

480
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: and say, what is there against this horse?

481
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: Now?

482
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: One thing to note is Steve Asmussen has not won

483
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 2: in the state of Kentucky in the last seventy two starts.

484
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 2: I think it goes back to November of last year,

485
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 2: the last time that's Steve Asmussen. Steve Asmussen trained horse

486
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 2: one in the state of Kentucky. That's Churchill, that's KEEENLND,

487
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: that's Kentucky Downs, and it's also turf Way. It's crazy

488
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: to think that a Hall of Fame trainer, one of

489
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: the most successful, winningest trainers of all time, hasn't gotten there.

490
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 2: Kathleen Oh, as you mentioned, Sean, she's a beast. She's

491
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 2: also a huge horse. My question and you can probably

492
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: say the same thing four secret Oath. The question is

493
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 2: is how does the sloppy track if it is sloppy,

494
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 2: if it's wet fast, I think we're okay. As you

495
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: mentioned a sloppy track closers. You know, how does that play,

496
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 2: What does the pace scenario look like. I think all

497
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 2: of that's going to come into play. I don't think

498
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: that there is anybody outside of these four, as you mentioned, Sean,

499
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 2: that really stands much of a chance in here. I'm

500
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 2: actually going to disagree on that in a moment, because

501
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: I do have a long shot that I actually like

502
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: and I think could win. Steve Asmus in the trainer

503
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 2: of the number three epicenter in the Kentucky Derby. He

504
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: has won the Kentucky Oaks twice, has.

505
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 3: Not won the Derby, and he's more of a sprint

506
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,239
Speaker 3: trainer in my opinion, tends to have horses that are

507
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: better around seven furlongs, maybe six furlongs, but doesn't really

508
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 3: have the horses that run as well at the route distances.

509
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm generally against Steve Asmis and horses once

510
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: we extend out get past seven furlongs, eight furlongs, you know,

511
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:53,880
Speaker 3: once we get past that mile distance, I don't really

512
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 3: know if his horses run as well. Okay, my top

513
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: long shot the number eight venti Valentinde. I actually think

514
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 3: this horse can win, and I know It's a bit

515
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 3: of a contrarian take relative to the top four horses

516
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 3: in this field. This horse has been training lights out

517
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 3: leading up to this race. The one concern for me

518
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: is the distance did tend to fade in the stretch

519
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 3: a little bit in her last race. But top Churchill

520
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 3: Jowns Jockey and Tyler gaff leone never been off the

521
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 3: board in five lifetime starts. Price is going to be

522
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 3: right and she has the tactical speed to it. I

523
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 3: think sit in a good spot in this race. I'm

524
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 3: actually expecting a pretty honest pace in the Oaks as

525
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 3: we're anticipating the derby. Maybe not quite as fast, but

526
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 3: I think an honest pace and horses from off the

527
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: lead are going to end up winning it. And she's

528
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 3: impressed in workouts, Like I said, second of eighty four

529
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: horses to walk workout on April twenty third. Have heard

530
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 3: good things about how she's moving around the track, galloping out,

531
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: ears up, looks happy. So the number eight VENTI Valentine

532
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: for me absolutely my top long shot and I think

533
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 3: potentially a sneaky wing contender here. That said, amongst the favorites,

534
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 3: I do think I prefer the number four Nest. I'm

535
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 3: with you a little bit on Secret Oath. I'm having

536
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 3: a very difficult time ordering those top four horses, having

537
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 3: a difficult time leaving any of them off my tickets.

538
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 3: The issue with that go Zulu how fast is the pace?

539
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: Because if that kaZulu doesn't get the lead, it's game over.

540
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 3: But if she does get the lead, she could end

541
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: up running a merry goo around around this track and

542
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 3: beating these horses by multiple links. So how much pace

543
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 3: pressure does she face early on? I think is the

544
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 3: main question with that go Zulu. But I completely agree.

545
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 3: Of the prices among those top four contenders, that's the

546
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 3: one that surprised me the most relative to her past performances.

547
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 3: Where are you going with your best long shot selection

548
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 3: for the Oaks and do you do you have a

549
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: horse that you're targeting if you had to pick one

550
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 3: from amongst those top four contenders. I guess you said

551
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: Secret Oath. But is it is it a confidence level

552
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 3: or are you just going based off a price? Yeah,

553
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: so it's definitely confidence level with Secret Oath in terms

554
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: of the top long shot for me, though, Sean, and

555
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: to your point with pace, I don't know if this

556
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 3: necessarily plays into my favor, but it's the number six.

557
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 4: Believe she's pronounced you gury.

558
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: She's shown that she can run around a merrygoing track,

559
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 2: a merry go round track.

560
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 4: She's fast, She's really fast.

561
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: She may have some of, if not the best early

562
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 2: speed in this race.

563
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 4: Can she get the distance? I don't know.

564
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: She held on, she fought back in the last race

565
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 2: in the fantasy, the Grade three at Oaklawn. So at

566
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: thirty to one, all horse that I think you can consider.

567
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: But I do agree that there's going to be a

568
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: hot and contested pacin here. Listen, secret oath. I think

569
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 2: it is a confidence play. It is also something where

570
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 2: at six to one, I start to, you know, my

571
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: mouth starts to drool a little bit. I start to

572
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 2: get really excited because to me, there's not enough of

573
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: a difference between her and Nest or her and Kathleen.

574
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 2: Oh at five to two and seven to two, respectively.

575
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: Six to one I think is a gift. I'm also

576
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 2: a big believer that when a Philly or a Mayor

577
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 2: runs against the boys, next time out, they come and

578
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: they tend to run a really big race.

579
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: And listen, there was a reason why you know, d Wayne.

580
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 2: Lucas put Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby, and there

581
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 2: were questions on if she won that race, if he

582
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: was ever even going to send her into the derby anyway.

583
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 2: So I think this was the plan all along.

584
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 4: I really like her in here.

585
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 2: Listen, cyber Knife wandered a little bit in the stretch

586
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 2: run of of that Arkansas Derby. Secret Oath didn't really

587
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: get a clean run at him late, and you can

588
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 2: watch her head is a little cocked. She's moving from

589
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 2: into out trying to find her stride. I think she's

590
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: going to be able to find her stride in this

591
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: field with the post shouldn't should be able to work

592
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 2: out a trip down in the one hole there, and

593
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 2: I think that she's coming flying late. And I do

594
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 2: think that she is going to be the winner.

595
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 3: And had a difficult trip in the Arkansas Derby as well.

596
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 3: You know, she had some excuses to make in there,

597
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 3: and I believe still finish third. So I completely agree

598
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 3: with you on secret Growth. I like horses that come

599
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: back from running against the boys. That was a difficult test,

600
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: and getting that difficult test, I think she's inclined to

601
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 3: improve off of it, all right, KNTI before we finish

602
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 3: up the Oaks, I want to talk about some horses

603
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: that we may want to use underneath. Now, this is

604
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 3: a little bit interesting to me because there's two top trainers,

605
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox, who have horses sitting in

606
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 3: that twenty to one rage. So the number thirteen Shahama

607
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 3: and the number fourteen Turner Lewis fifteen to one and

608
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 3: twenty to one respectively. Those are my two favorite horses

609
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: aside from Venti Valentine, the number eight sitting in that

610
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: longer odds range. Do you like any of those horses underneath?

611
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: And are there any other horses that you're considering prioritizing

612
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 3: on your exotic tickets?

613
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I don't. The only other horse that I'm

614
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: prioritizing on the exotic tickets in terms of long shots

615
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 2: for me is the number three Hidden Connection. I think

616
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: that she ran really well in that fair Grounds Oaks race.

617
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 2: You know Echo Zulu, we know she's coming back here,

618
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: she's racing you know, Hidden Connections run against these horses before,

619
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: and I think that she's very much trending in the

620
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: right direction as a three year old. Yes, it's only

621
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 2: going to get tougher for her in this field, especially

622
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 2: though if it's a sloppy track, I think that she

623
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 2: stands a big chance. And again she got Jackie Ray Lugutirez, which,

624
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 2: for better or worse, the guy's been riding with a

625
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: ton of confidence, and I think that she's someone that's

626
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: going to be coming late. She can also sit just

627
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: off of it right. She's got a nice versatility to

628
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 2: her where she can sit the stocking trip, she can

629
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 2: come from off of it and be able to make

630
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 2: that run at the end. I like her as a

631
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 2: long shot play underneath in the exotics.

632
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 1: I think twenty to one is a dream.

633
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: I doubt you see anywhere near that number on Hidden Connection,

634
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: but if you do, I completely agree, and that would

635
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 3: probably be a one place show bet for me if

636
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: you got anywhere near.

637
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:55,959
Speaker 1: Twenty to one on Hidden Connection.

638
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: The reason I like Shahama and Turner lose again, I

639
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 3: focus on training reports leading up to the Kentucky Derby

640
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 3: clocker reports. They're both training lights out and leading up

641
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 3: to this race. That's why I think it could be

642
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 3: a pretty good addition of the Kentucky Oaks. There just

643
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 3: seems to be a lot of horses in really good form,

644
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 3: and it seems like a really deeply deep feel. I

645
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: know there's four top win contenders that we talked about,

646
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 3: but I actually see a lot of horses that could

647
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 3: end up hitting second and sort of messing up exactly

648
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 3: as effectus. So I would definitely look for price horses

649
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 3: second or later, because if there's a fast pace, we

650
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 3: may see horses falling.

651
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: Out of the money. Now onto Sleeper.

652
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 3: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

653
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,720
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654
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: I use it for mine.

655
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656
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657
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Speaker 3: new over undergame.

658
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: It's super simple.

659
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 3: First, in any sport, cho's two or more players that

660
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 3: you like and pick they're over or under for example

661
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: number of points in basketball or hits in baseball. Then

662
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 3: choose the amount of money you want to enter into

663
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 3: the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere

664
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 3: from two to over twenty times the amount you put in.

665
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 3: The main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper

666
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 3: is that it's the only app where I can join

667
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: my buddies, contest and play together. It's got a built

668
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 3: in group chat where I can see and copy my

669
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: friend's picks with the tap of a button. It's insanely

670
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: fun to write it out together. So stop what you're

671
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: doing and download Sleeper now to play their new over undergame.

672
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,440
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673
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,239
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674
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 3: deposit up to one hundred dollars. Again, download Sleeper, then

675
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 3: use promo Code action when you deposit. Terms and conditions apply.

676
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 3: See Sleepers Terms of Use for details. Okay, back to

677
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: the show. Let's talk about our favorite undercard bets. We're

678
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 3: going to start with the Friday Oaks card. Very limited

679
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 3: for me, as I mentioned with rain and the forecast.

680
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 3: In fact, I may not end up playing any of these.

681
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: I need to see what the weather is like. But

682
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: I do want to talk about a few of these races. First,

683
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: the Grade Grade one Latch and Race six one twenty

684
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 3: six pm post time. The number two She's there is

685
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 3: a devil six to five on the morning line, lost

686
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: to the number six paulinees Perl last time out was

687
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 3: fresh off the layoff, though don't think she was fully

688
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: geared up, and I think you're actually getting value on

689
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: this horse here because of that loss should be even

690
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 3: money in my opinion, maybe four to five. This is

691
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: her track Kentucky Oaks, winner five or five at Churchill Downs.

692
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: She should be first or second early on an uncontested

693
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 3: pace six to five on the morning line. I'll bet

694
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 3: that even money. Sure, I'll bet that too. I would

695
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: bet this down to four to five. I think she

696
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 3: Dares the Devil is way the most likely winner of

697
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: that race. But I'm actually gonna use her in a

698
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 3: daily double. I'm not gonna play her straight up. Raise

699
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 3: seven the Grade two Alishiba right after that two nine

700
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 3: pm post. There's two horses that I like in here,

701
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 3: and I think it'll be a slow pace. So the

702
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 3: two leaders potentially early in the race, the number five

703
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 3: Olympiad that is your favorite, and the number two Wayburn

704
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: five to one, those are your two most likely winners

705
00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 3: in my opinion. If we're gonna get a slow pace,

706
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 3: those two are should be on the lead, and I

707
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: think one passes the other in the stretch run and

708
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 3: becomes your winner. So the number two sheet Hears is

709
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 3: the Devil in race six for me the number five

710
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 3: Olympiad and the number two in race seven Weyburn, number

711
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: two Wayburn and race seven. I'm going to play daily

712
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 3: double those three horses, and then I also want to

713
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: talk about race nine because there's a fifteen to one

714
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 3: shot that I like. The number nine awake at midnight.

715
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: She tried to run longer distances and it didn't really

716
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 3: work out for her, But now she's cutting back to

717
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: seven furlocks and I think that's a great move. I

718
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: like horses when they're coming back from rounds to sprints.

719
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 3: I'm going to play her in an exactabox with the favorite,

720
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: the number eight Materia concerned about a wet track, but

721
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: she did finish fourth in the slop in the Gray

722
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 3: one Ashland last time out, behind Nests, who we mentioned

723
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: Kentucky Oak's favorite, and she didn't necessarily run bad. She

724
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 3: just finished fourth, become of a couple of horses who

725
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: were better, didn't necessarily run poorly on the wet track,

726
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 3: was third and fourth all the way around. So I

727
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 3: don't really know if the slop is going to hurt

728
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: her at all if it is sloppy, but for me,

729
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: it's an exacta box with the number eight Mataia and

730
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 3: the number nine awake at midnight in race nine, very

731
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: limited card for me on the Kentucky Oaks undercard CONTI

732
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 3: do you have any bets? Are you just avoiding this

733
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: because of the rain.

734
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 2: So it's funny, Sean, I actually love the slop. I

735
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 2: think that there's an advantage as a handicapper when there's

736
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: a sloppy track. I'm gonna touch on a couple of

737
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 2: the same races that you did. I think in terms

738
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: of my favorite sequence of the day, it's going to

739
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 2: be a pick three. Starting in race eight, I'm going

740
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 2: to single number five dulce Zen on top. I think

741
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 2: that she is just going to be much the best

742
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 2: in this spot. She's proven that she can run on

743
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: a good turf course. Both of her last two starts

744
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 2: came on a good turf course two backs.

745
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 4: She won.

746
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 2: Last time out, she only finish. She finished second by

747
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 2: a length and three quarters. Chad Brown always is ready

748
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: to fire on the big days. I rad aboard. I

749
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 2: think she's the most likely winner Race nine. The two

750
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 2: horses that I'm using here one that you mentioned in

751
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: the number eight Matteriea. I think listen, she ran in

752
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: my opinion, a lights out race. I went back and

753
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 2: watched the race like three times. She just blew that field.

754
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: The way Fleavi and Pratt had her geared down late.

755
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 2: You know the brad Cox connection here as well, Good Dolphin.

756
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: I think that she's your most likely winner. A little

757
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 2: bit of a price horse that does interest me in

758
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 2: here is the number six Jerrymander. Jerrymander beat Nest in

759
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 2: her last start. Granted it was a non graded stakes

760
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 2: race and it was back in November and we haven't

761
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 2: seen her since then. I get it, but she ran

762
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: really well. Another race that I went back and watched

763
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 2: a couple of times, Jerrymander was pressed on her outside

764
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 2: by a horse by the name of Magic Circle, who

765
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: looked at the top of the stretch like she was

766
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 2: going to go right by Jerrymander, and Jerrymander continued to

767
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: find more and then continued to hold off Nest late Jerrymander.

768
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: She also ran second to Echo Zulu, who we've talked

769
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 2: to at eight to one. I get the layoff, but

770
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: it's Chad Brown. He has his horses ready coming off

771
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: the layoff, and she's buy into mischief, so she could

772
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: definitely run a big race, even in the mud. And

773
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,240
Speaker 2: then in race ten I'm going towards the outside. Number

774
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 2: ten arrest Me read a Wesley Ward Irad horse, second

775
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,879
Speaker 2: off the layoff, second start in the four year old

776
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: campaign just missed last time out splitting horses late, was

777
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 2: the favorite in that race at even money. I don't

778
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 2: think that this race is all that much more difficult

779
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 2: than that race. Frankly, although this is great at stakes competition,

780
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: second off the bench getting four to one, I just

781
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 2: scratched my head because the last three starts of this

782
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 2: girl's three year old campaign she won, so at four

783
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: to one a really square price. I will also be

784
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 2: using the number nine pirron in there, so again my

785
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: big pick three on Oaks Day will be in race eight,

786
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: number five Dulce Zen, Race nine numbers six and eight

787
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 2: Jerrymander and Matt Area, and then in race ten I

788
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 2: will be using PIRN and number ten arrest Me read

789
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 2: love It.

790
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: And anytime you can find a single, you should bet

791
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: or work your sequences around that single. I should say,

792
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: either leading into it or starting with it, and then

793
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 3: you can always change your tickets up from there.

794
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 1: Saturday and your card bets.

795
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk to pick five sequence in a minute,

796
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 3: the late pick five that ends with the Kentucky Derby.

797
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 3: I actually want to talk about the stakes races in

798
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 3: race five and seven. First Race five, the Grade two

799
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 3: turf mile twelve thirty six PM posts. So you have

800
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 3: to get those bets in early. And I said, I

801
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 3: like she Dares the Devil on Friday, while I like

802
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: the number eight Speak of the Devil on Saturday.

803
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,720
Speaker 1: Two to one I think.

804
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 3: Is potentially a dream on this horse. This should be

805
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 3: closer to three to two or even money in my opinion,

806
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 3: And for you general sports betters out there, when I

807
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 3: first started betting horses, there was no difference between two

808
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 3: to one and three to two. To me, well that's

809
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 3: a difference between plus two hundred and plus one fifty.

810
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 3: Convert these to fair odds, imply to odds, and take

811
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 3: a think about what that means when those odds is

812
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 3: just well, like I said, this horse should be closer

813
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 3: to even money in my opinion than two to one.

814
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 3: If I get two to one, it's absolutely a win bet.

815
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 3: We'll see what price we get. But speaking the Devil

816
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: far and away the clear winner for me. Controlling speed

817
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 3: in this race. I don't think anybody's gonna challenge him.

818
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,720
Speaker 3: Race seven the Pat mile one fifty six PM post.

819
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 3: There's a non stakes race in the middle between races

820
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: five and seven, the number five Jack Christopher for Chad Brown.

821
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 3: Maybe not as strong of an opinion for me as

822
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 3: Speaking the Devil, but any Chad Brown horse at two

823
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 3: to one that could be a star in the making.

824
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 3: Concern that it's his first start back off of a layoff,

825
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 3: but Chad Brown is a twenty seven percent win rate

826
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 3: and this first starts off a layoff. I don't think

827
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,359
Speaker 3: there's a better trainer getting his horses ready to go

828
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 3: off the bench than Chad Brown. So maybe not as

829
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 3: strong of an opinion as Speaking the Devil, but the

830
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 3: number five Jack Christopher and Race seven for me, I

831
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 3: think is far and away the most likely winner. Any

832
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 3: horses you like in those races? Content are those passes

833
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 3: for you?

834
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: Those honestly are passes for me. I'm gonna save my dollars.

835
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: I've got a really as I mentioned earlier, I've got

836
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: a really strong opinion in the late pick five sequence

837
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 2: that I am going to press hard in a lot

838
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 2: of ways.

839
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 1: I like it. Well, let's go to that.

840
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 3: Pick five starts with race eight, the Derby City Distaff

841
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 3: two forty eight pm post time. I'm going against the

842
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 3: brad Cox horses in here, the number one of the

843
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: number two. Now, maybe, Kanti, I see him shaking his head,

844
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 3: so this could be a little faulty for me. Maybe

845
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 3: I'll be adding another horse to start my pick five's

846
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 3: the number four Kamari, the number five obligatory and the

847
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 3: number six bells the one. Those are all going to

848
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 3: be on my multi race tickets to start the late

849
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 3: pick five sequence.

850
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: Kanti, tell me.

851
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: Why I'm wronging leaving either a Lady Rocket or just

852
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 3: one time the number one on.

853
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: The two off my tickets.

854
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: It's just the number one Lady Rocket for me. I

855
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 2: think that she is the speed of this race. She

856
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 2: got pressed in her last start in the Madison. That

857
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: track was also favoring closers that day, and I think

858
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 2: that again we've talked about, you know, second off the

859
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: bench tech. Brad typically gets his horses ready second off

860
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 2: the layoff. Brad Cox is winning at twenty nine percent,

861
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 2: So give me Lady Rocket. She can go to the

862
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 2: lead early and never look back. At five to one,

863
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: I just scratched my head. She went off at five

864
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 2: to two. You're getting double the odds that you got

865
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: from her last start, and in which yes, I know

866
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 2: that there were others in here that ended up coming

867
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 2: and beating her, but again a track that was favoring closers.

868
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 2: It was first off, a four month layoff for her.

869
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 2: I really like her in here. The other two that

870
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 2: I'm using you mentioned already, number four Kamari and number

871
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 2: five Obligatory.

872
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll definitely have to go back and take a

873
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 3: closer look at later. Rocket listen. I have finalized my

874
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 3: tickets on Saturday morning. I'm still digging through these cards.

875
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: I'm open to the fact that there's horses I may

876
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,720
Speaker 3: have missed things in the PPS that I may have missed.

877
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 3: Let's talk about race nine the American Turf three forty

878
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 3: pm Eastern time. It's the five to six and the

879
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 3: seven for me Balanikov six Portfolio Company and number seven

880
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 3: Side Dog. I'm staying with three in this race. Any

881
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 3: of those you disagree with, any that.

882
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 2: You would add, don't disagree, not adding anything. Here's the

883
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 2: single of the weekend for me. It is number seven

884
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 2: Side Dog. Horse has done nothing wrong. Has run three

885
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 2: times one all three times, has continued to step up

886
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,280
Speaker 2: and face tougher and frankly has in my opinion, looked

887
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: better in each of these races. Last time out, first

888
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 2: off the bench over a good turf course which probably

889
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 2: will still have on Saturday. I love side doog in here.

890
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: It's irad Ortiz, It's Derby Day. This guy knows how

891
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 2: to show up. He puts his horses in the right spot.

892
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 2: Watch out at seven to two all day long.

893
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 4: This is a win bet.

894
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: This is a single in any multi race exotics, doubles,

895
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 2: pick threes, pick fours, pick five.

896
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,320
Speaker 3: I love to hear that that is my top selection

897
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: in the race as well. I will probably spread to

898
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: the three horses in a pick five, but then I'll

899
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 3: probably play a pick four where I'm singling side dog

900
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 3: as well, so I'm probably gonna have multiple tickets and

901
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 3: I'll start a four with that single. Raise ten the

902
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 3: Churchill Down Stakes four thirty one PM posts, seven furlong

903
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: sprint and as we talked about earlier, Steve asked me

904
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 3: sent typically an ace with his horses in sprints. The

905
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 3: number three Jackie's Warrior, one of my favorite horses in training.

906
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: Absolutely will be on my tickets, should be on the lead,

907
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: should be your leader. The question is do we have

908
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,240
Speaker 3: a pace melt down? Typically I like to have horses

909
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 3: that are going to be in front and show early

910
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 3: speed in these sprints. But I think there's a potential

911
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,479
Speaker 3: that we see a pace melt down, and in that case,

912
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 3: I want the number one Aloha West as well, who

913
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 3: will be the one deep closer in here could potentially

914
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 3: pick off this field at the end. Those are my

915
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 3: A horses. I do have two B horses as well,

916
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 3: the number five reinvestment risk and the number six prevalence.

917
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 3: Considering using those on my tickets to my multi race wagers,

918
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 3: whether I use them in the pick five, maybe stick

919
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 3: to them in the pick four because I'm going to

920
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 3: end up singling in the pick four and that's how

921
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 3: I'll decrease my risk on the pick five ticket. Kanti,

922
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 3: how do you feel about those four horses?

923
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm two horses deep in here, Sean, I agree

924
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 2: with you. Jackie's Warrior listen. He really doesn't do much wrong.

925
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 2: He's got nine wins and thirteen career starts. He also

926
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 2: has two wins over this track at Churchill. He also

927
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 2: has two wins over a wet track as well, so

928
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: in case we do get some more moisture. We did

929
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 2: mention the kind of elephant in the room with Steve

930
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 2: Asmussen though, of his record in the state of Kentucky

931
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:27,720
Speaker 2: from November through now, which gives.

932
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 4: Me a little pause for concern.

933
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 2: So the other horse that I'm including in here, I

934
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 2: think now we might have covered all the horses in

935
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 2: this race, but for me is number eight Sayson.

936
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: I really like.

937
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: This horse, another horse that's moving from the Bafford barn

938
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 2: to the Todd Pletcher barn. Frankly, to me, there's no

939
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 2: difference there. They're one and the same in terms of

940
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: the quality of trainer that you're talking about. Seyson has

941
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 2: run really well against some of the best out West.

942
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 2: I really like him in this spot. Last time he

943
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 2: didn't seem to want to get the mile. But I

944
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 2: do think that, you know, as a sprint horn, he's

945
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 2: one that can sit just off this pace and will

946
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: be able to close, not from as far back as

947
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,479
Speaker 2: a Loja West, to be able to get up late

948
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 2: against Jackie's Warrior Willen.

949
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 3: We've talked about five of the eight, so not too bad.

950
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 3: Why don't I mention it six. The number seven mind

951
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 3: Control won me a bunch of money over the years.

952
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 3: Don't like him here though, But again, Kanti, you're using

953
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:20,919
Speaker 3: a single so if you want to spread in this race,

954
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 3: that's okay for me. I had a difficult time finding

955
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 3: fewer than three horses in most of these races that

956
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: I liked, so I have to trim somewhere. Maybe this

957
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 3: is the race for it, because I believe the Turf Classic,

958
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 3: which is race ten or Race eleven, I should say

959
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 3: five twenty seven pm posts this is the spread race

960
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 3: in the sequence. For me, had a very difficult time

961
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 3: trimming down this field. I'm gonna use all three tad

962
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 3: Brown horses, the number three Public Sector, the number four Tribuvon,

963
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 3: and the number eight to Domo. I also like the

964
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 3: number six Suural Spite coming off of a career best effort.

965
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 3: So it's at least four horses in this field for me.

966
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 3: I think you could go even deeper, but I'll probably

967
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 3: limit myself to those four horses. Are you going deeper

968
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 3: than four? Less than four?

969
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 2: Are?

970
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: How are you looking at the tear of Classic?

971
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, I agree with you. Listen, pending on your

972
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,919
Speaker 2: budget this. If you're going to single, this very well

973
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 2: could be an all race, and I totally agree with you.

974
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 2: Right if you're able, if you're good with singling side

975
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 2: doog and you only go too deep in one of

976
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 2: the other races, you could very well click all in here.

977
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 2: There's a lot of horses in here that I could

978
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: make a big case for. I'm going to go with

979
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: the three number three public Sector as you mentioned. I'm

980
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 2: also going to have number eight Admiha and the number

981
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 2: ten Santon as well in here for me. You know,

982
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 2: listen again, this to me probably the most difficult race

983
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 2: of the sequence outside of the Derby, just being a

984
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 2: twenty horse Field sryl Spite last time went off at

985
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: or i should say was morning line huge odds. I

986
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 2: think she was like fifty or he was fifty to

987
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 2: one morning line or something crazy like that. Ended up

988
00:45:56,800 --> 00:46:01,240
Speaker 2: going off at nine to one. Closed, really really well.

989
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 2: I just don't love a horse coming back in three weeks,

990
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 2: especially from Roger Attfield. Nothing against him, I just don't

991
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 2: know as though that I trust that, and at such

992
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 2: a short price I'm going to try to go against

993
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 2: in here.

994
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 3: I feel like the race before each triple Crown race

995
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 3: is always a spread race in these sequences, and that's

996
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 3: where they sort of trip people up. You try to

997
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 3: trim down, just hit the all button, especially if you're singling.

998
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 3: Maybe save yourself some aggravation. All right, I just want

999
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 3: to recap our derby horses. Since we're talking about the

1000
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 3: pick five sequence. What's the fewest number of horses you're

1001
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:36,919
Speaker 3: going to use? How much would you extend it out?

1002
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 3: For me, the fewest I would use is probably too

1003
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 3: the number ten Zanden And for me, I think Taiba

1004
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 3: has to be the second horse. If I'm going to

1005
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 3: choose from a monst the talk selections, I may consider

1006
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 3: adding in the number one Modonegal Crown prints. The number

1007
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: seven is my favorite long shot, so maybe I even

1008
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: get up to four. And as you mentioned, it's tough

1009
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: to leave off the quote unquote Bafford horses. The number

1010
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 3: six Messia may find a way out of my tickets

1011
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 3: as well, depending on how trim I get on the

1012
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 3: other legs of these multi race sequences. How are you

1013
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 3: finishing off your pick five?

1014
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: Your pick four?

1015
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 4: Yeah? You know, Sean, I agree with you.

1016
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: I mean listen, Depending upon and I may end up

1017
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: playing multiple pick five tickets right, this may be a

1018
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 2: sequence where you know we talked about the single and

1019
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: side doog for me, I think you could also make

1020
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 2: a taste to potentially single Jackie's Warrior. And if you're

1021
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 2: going to do that, maybe do you single one in

1022
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 2: one ticket and one in the other and be able

1023
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 2: to go a little bit deeper in some of these

1024
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 2: other races. For me in the Derby, in my multi

1025
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 2: race wagers, it's going to be number one, Modonegal, number three, Epicenter,

1026
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 2: number six, Messa, number ten, Zanden and number twelve Taiba.

1027
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: And that'll do it for us.

1028
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 3: On the Action Network podcast Kentucky Derby Betting Preview presented

1029
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: by Twin Spiers, I'm Sean Zarillo. Thank you Mike Conti

1030
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 3: for joining me. Best of luck on your wagers this weekend.

1031
00:47:54,840 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: Help you win some money. S