WEBVTT - Zero Tariffs Would Benefit EU Automakers More Than 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:08.360 Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.440 Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:15.000 we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.520 for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:20.560 store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:32.199 L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:36.560 Trade talks and updates to NAFTA. President Donald Trump saying 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:40.240 that there are signs of optimism. He said that we're 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.800 really doing well. He talked to reporters at the White 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:45.960 House talking about Canada. He says they want to be 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:49.720 part of the deal we've gotten until Friday, and he says, 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:53.960 the President says, I think we're probably on track. Well, 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:55.920 let's find out if we're really on track. We've got 0:00:55.960 --> 0:01:01.120 Michael Dean, our senior analyst European Automotive for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.760 Plus we've got Josh wind Grove. He's our Canadian government 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.160 reporter for Bloomberg and he just happens to be in 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:11.160 our nation's capital in Washington, d C. Josh wind Grove. 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:15.800 We got just a small comment from Christopher Freeland, the 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:20.960 Foreign Minister of Canada talking about intense negotiations with Robert Leitheiser. 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:26.640 Any update on what exactly is going on in those negotiations. Yeah, 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.040 you're getting a good window into the glamour of trade 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.480 reporting here, and I'm just calling from the streets of 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.560 Washington where we're loitering and hanging on every word that 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.240 Christie Freeland has to throw our way on the way 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.800 in and out of these meetings, to sort of swinging 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:43.680 in and out as they bringing the political figures and 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:47.319 bring sort of the technical experts who you might lovingly 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.640 call the true nerds, the nerds with three cred to 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:54.200 commast on these issues. But you know, there isn't a 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.000 sense of panic in the air. It's hard to finger 0:01:57.120 --> 0:01:59.480 on the even there were twenty four hours or so 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:04.559 from this sort of quadline self imposed political deadline, which 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:08.919 is frankly all that not that real the deadline. Uh, 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:12.320 you know, there's there's not really uh back against the 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.280 wall field to it. Also, I think that's reflected in 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.919 the views you're hearing from Trump and Trudeau that maybe 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.639 they're untracked to get something. What's interesting is that it 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.200 a day where it does seem like there is progress 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.720 being made towards some kind of North American free trade agreement, 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:28.160 albeit not by that name. There does seem to be 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.000 a softening between the European Union and the US as well, 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:35.480 with the European Union proposing reportedly anyway, uh, that they 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:39.680 are willing to strip away all tariffs if the US 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.920 is willing to do the same. And Michael, I'd love 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:46.079 you to come on in here, how significant, how surious 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:47.720 is this, How seriously should we take this? And how 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:52.040 significant would it be for the auto industry in particular? Hi? There? Yes, So, 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:55.520 the German automakers set about one point two million cars 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.520 in the US. About half of these are imported from 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:01.959 the EU. So this would remove a two and a 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:06.840 half percent tariff, which isn't massive in the scheme of things. 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.240 But what I think the bigger issue here is if 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:15.200 it removes the threat that Donald Trump proposed in import tariff. 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:19.079 I think that's the bigger positive here for the European carmakers. Michael, 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.560 who would benefit more if all tariffs were done away 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:24.880 between the EU and the US. Would it be the 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:29.280 US automakers or the European automakers? Almost certainly the EU 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:32.560 given the numbers. I just talked about over half a 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:37.400 million vehicles being exported to the US each year. Michael, 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.520 does the United States really have an export strategy when 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:46.640 it comes to automobiles targeting the European Union? Well, they 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:50.080 have brands in Europe. They have fought which which still 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:54.280 does very well. UM as you know, GM sold Opal recently, 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:57.560 which wasn't such a success. So there hasn't really been 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:01.440 a major sort of export mark kids for the US 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.160 manufacturers into the EU EU, and I don't think that 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:07.120 will change all right, So we have that softening of 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.160 the European Union in the US. It seems like there 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:12.600 is a good rapport or at least not a bad 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.719 report between Canada and the US and Mexico. So Josh, 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.400 what are we looking for to determine whether or not 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:21.240 this is going to be a done deal, They're going 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.120 to meet the deadline, and whether or not this is 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:28.400 just basically nap to two point over a few tweaks. Yeah. 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:32.520 I think the parallel here is that it's less about 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.440 what can be achieved by deal and the threat that 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.360 comes off the table. It's the same thing with THEU 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.200 cars less about two and a half percent in the 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:44.440 shread and the same with NAFTA, because whatever they deal 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:46.400 get a deal on this Friday, will be a deal 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:51.880 in principle at best, subject a month of for the talks, 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:54.719 legal haggling, you know, in trade like single words in 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.760 a trade agreement can mean all the difference in the world. 0:04:57.440 --> 0:04:59.039 So you know, it's just sort of looking for a 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.800 political wing to get Trump satisfied, I guess. And it's 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:06.800 gonna come down to dairy and dispute Panels. US wants 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:11.040 to basically do away with media dairy system and the Panels, 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.719 and I guess they're looking for a way to save 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.960 a little bit of both. Josh, is there any way 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.719 to disentangle US automobile production from what happens in Canada, 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:28.680 specifically in Ontario? Uh? Not painlessly? Um. You know, Canada 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:30.760 is a huge ex border of autos to the US 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:34.520 to supply chains or deeply integrated some parts across the 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.000 border six times before they actually end up in a car. 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.920 So if you started tariffing it, it would be US 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:44.880 automakers who would have would be certainly among those feeling 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.960 the pain. In US consumers would be among most paying 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.720 the price. Because I feel like this gets lost. It's 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:52.800 so timble, but it's like it gets lost in the 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.800 tariffs are paid by the country that applies book right, 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.800 So US tarrap is paid by the US people buying 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.080 the goods. John swing Grove, We're gonna let you go. 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:03.279 A lot of trade reporting to be down. Josh wyn 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:06.560 Grove is Canada government reporter for Bloomberg News. Michael stick 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:08.440 with US. I want to talk about the auto industry, 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:09.560 and I want to talk about the news that we 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.920 got out earlier today with the European Union. How credible 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.839 is what we learned today that the European Union would 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:19.880 be European Union will be willing to drop all tariffs 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.360 if the US were to do the same. Is that likely? 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.720 Is that realistic? I think it's possible. Given the magnitude 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.960 of the exports from the EU and how important the 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.400 German auto industry is to the EU, I think this 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:36.600 definitely is credible. How big is the auto industry for 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:39.000 the German economy? Can you give us some perspective? What 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.880 German auto makers have about a hundred billion dollars of 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:49.200 revenues from the US. About of that is directly for 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:53.000 exports to the US. So yes, it's it's very significant. 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.719 And what about hundred and twenty thousand Americans actually work 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:03.240 for European Union car companies in the United States and 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:07.279 states such as South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Right, 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.600 that's correct. So both BMW and Mercedes have made the 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:16.800 US their suv hub production base um globally, and therefore 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:20.920 they produce over six hundred thousand vehicles annually in the US. 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:23.720 Plus Folkswagon produces about two hundred thousand units, so it's 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.240 very significant. Thank you so much. Michael Dean senior analyst 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:32.640 covering the European automative automotive sector for Bloomberg Intelligence, coming 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:49.920 to us from London. Michael, thank you. He's an investor 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.440 who follows Warren Buffett. David Deets is the founder and 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:56.880 the chief investment strategist for Point View Wealth Management, helping 0:07:56.880 --> 0:08:00.360 to manage more than three hundred million dollars of stomer 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:03.560 assets based in Summit, New Jersey. David diet is always 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:09.000 a pleasure. When did you first invest alongside Warren Buffett 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:14.000 and Berkshire Hathaway. Well, I've been a long term Berkshire 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:19.080 halfway holder. Uh, that goes back into the nineties. Part 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:21.080 of it is just so that I get tickets to 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:25.120 go out to Omaha um and see him in person. 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:27.520 And I was lucky enough to be in Omaha just 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:32.280 this past May. And uh, he's still as witty and 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:36.079 instructive and insightful as he's ever been. And of course 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:41.440 his sidekick there um Charles munger Is, is doing the 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.319 same thing. And over the years, I'd have to credit 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:48.120 him as being so informative to our investing strategy here 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.680 at Point View. All right, so let's talk about how 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:54.760 he has informed your strategy. In particular recently, he was 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:58.040 on earlier a couple of competing networks talking about how 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:02.240 he likes airlines, he prefers stocks over bonds. What's been 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.080 your biggest takeaway so far today? Well, you know, I 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:07.600 think the number one question everyone's mind here we are 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:11.480 in the longest bold market ever by some metrics, is 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.000 does he still like stocks today? And you know, I 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:19.120 felt he answered the question with yes for the long term. Um, 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:22.000 you know, he always wishes to buy things cheaper, but 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.719 he offered one comparison. He said, look, if you had 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.640 a chance to buy a thirty year treasury bond or 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:31.440 invest in a well diversified basia stocks. The stock choice 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:34.280 is a no brainer. So over the long haul, he 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.400 likes stocks, particularly relative to where interest rate start today. 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:40.319 Interestingly enough, he also opined in real estate, and he 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:42.400 thought stocks are cheaper than real estate. I know we 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:44.240 have lots of clients, a lot of people out there 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.080 are looking as an alternative to the stock market real estate. 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.000 He would inject a note of caution into that. What 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.760 about acquisitions. Do you believe that Warren Buffett is searching 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.520 for large acquisitions or is he going to be spending 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:01.920 time looking on bolt on acquisition small earth. Well, he's 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.920 looking at everything. You know. His problem is he's just 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:08.680 got this huge, massive cash hoard too, as he put it, 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.800 would put it move the needle. He needs to make 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:16.720 a big acquisition fifty billion or more, almost an S ANDP. 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:21.120 Having said that, of course, they're still opportunistic in areas 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:22.959 where they see a lot of growth. So for example, 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:26.199 we just learned that he, along with other tech giants, 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:30.439 have invested in an Indian company which focuses on mobile payments. 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:33.040 So I think he's he's open to everything, but he 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.800 really needs the big one. Okay, But David Diets in 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.800 his annual letter to investors. He talked about paying a 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:44.080 sensible purchase price for an acquisition, and he said that 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:47.360 this has been a barrier to virtually all the deals 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:52.040 that they reviewed. In he said, prices for decent companies, 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:55.920 far from spectacular have hit an all time high. You 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.000 think that still exists, Well, yeah, I do. I mean, 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:02.120 we haven't heard of any big acquisitions from him, and 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.600 that's why, um, you know, I think he made the 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.600 easy uh comparison in terms of where the stock markets 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.520 today by just comparing it against you know, these super 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:15.160 low interest rate bonds. Um. What has been as biggest 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.199 acquisition this year and recently is buying shares of Apple. 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.680 But with Apple now the largest company on the planet, 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:24.880 well over a trillion dollar market cap and hitting all 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:28.400 time highs as we speak, it's hard to argue that 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.400 that is a great value today. And even he has 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.400 said that when he's first started buying very heavily in 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:37.320 Q one, the stock price got away from him. He 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:41.880 didn't admit to buying a few shares this quarter. But certainly, 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:45.600 although he loves the business, I don't think that you'd, uh, 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.920 you know, you'd walk away and say he loves the 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.920 stock price right now? So over the years that you've 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:54.440 been following Warren Buffett, what's been the most valuable advice 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:58.360 that you've taken from him? You know, I think it's 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.760 it's two things. Really. One is to think long term. 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:04.840 You know, so many people on Wall Street they're they're 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.880 looking at a chart and looking at it. You know, 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:09.480 what can the stock market do for me? And the 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.319 next day, the next week, the next month, He argues, 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:15.760 you know, think about holding if think about holding companies 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.200 for a lifetime. And I think that gives him a 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:23.319 staying power um, which really works to his benefit when 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.200 the rest of us are so short term oriented. I 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.280 think the second thing, of course, is don't look at 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.880 stocks this pieces of paper, he says, Look underneath him, 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.320 look under the hood. They are operating businesses. You know, 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.640 if you wouldn't buy the stock if the stock market 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:41.480 was closed for the next six months, don't even consider 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.720 your purchase. These are operating businesses. Understand what makes them tick, 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.840 how the cash flows work. Only then can you make 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:53.440 an intelligent acquisition. David Deets. One of the quotes from 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:57.240 his annual letter is that Charlie Munger and warm Buffett 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:00.280 that he says they both sleep well, and they leave. 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:03.600 It is insane to risk what you have a need 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:07.800 in order to obtain what you don't need. Do you 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:12.440 believe that those words describe many of the acquisitions that 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:16.920 have been reported so far this year? Well, you know 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.160 that that's uh, there's been a lot of acquisitions out there. 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:23.679 But certainly, just in his comments this morning, you know, 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:27.760 he talked about debt and so forth, and and uh, 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:32.640 certainly the idea that you should leverage yourself deeply in 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.880 order to make an acquisition. UM. I think he's very 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.240 negative on if the company won't stand as own merits 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.640 and only makes sense if you leverage it to the hill, 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:47.400 he'd be very leery about UM. And so I think 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.719 that that's one great takeaway for for Wall Street investors. 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.520 Don't operate on margin. Don't use you know, next month's 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.040 rent money, only use money that you can afford to 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.559 ride with for a long period of time. David DIDs 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:02.520 stick with David DIDs is founder and chief investment strategistic 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:06.520 Point View Wealth Management, based in Summit, New Jersey. We 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.400 are about to head over and here from the Oracle 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.360 of Omaha himself, I personally am very interested to hear 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:14.880 what he might be saying about is more than one 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.880 hundred billion dollar cash pile where he is going to 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.720 put it. Also, he has made news to this year 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.160 talking about starting his own healthcare initiative with a number 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.560 of other companies. Perhaps he will give some insight into that. 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:31.360 He is sitting down with Bloomberg television anchor David Weston 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.880 at his annual charity lunch at Smith and Malensky in 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:39.560 New York City. Berkshire Hathaway chief executive Warren Buffett to 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:44.080 be speaking about everything from stocks, two bonds to what 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.080 he will do with this massive cash pile. Right, and 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.760 just to put it into context, the shares of Berkshire 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.120 Hathaway they are hired by about six percent so far 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:56.520 this year. And uh, Warren Buffett holds a thirty six 0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:00.440 and a half percent stake in the company. Yeah, so 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:04.800 definitely really an interesting time. Also interesting will be whether 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.120 or not the good times are over, whether the opportunities 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:12.640 that Warren Buffett has experienced over his decades of a 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.400 track record, whether those have passed, Whether this is a 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:20.360 different time and that just cannot happen given where valuations are. Yeah, 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:23.160 and and to wonder whether the valuations are better here 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:26.680 in the United States or whether they're better overseas. Yeah, 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.040 I thought that it was really interesting. Without Indian acquisition, 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:31.920 I thought that that was compelling, especially at a time 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.440 when there's a lot of money going to startups in India. 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.040 But this sort of growing recognition that that is a 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:41.080 huge market that will surpass China in population in the 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.880 upcoming decade, not to mention it's sort of technological developments 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.840 and and the other advances in its economy. So it's 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:49.720 sort of interesting to see whether there is value to 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.840 be found there um and if so, where and how 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.400 as a foreign investor it is to get into that. Yes, 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:59.200 and also it will be interested to hear if he 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:03.280 has anything to say about tariffs and how tariffs supplied 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:08.240 by the United States will affect the prices that consumers 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:12.760 have to pay based on those pass along costs. David 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.200 David Deeds come back on in here, David Deed's founder 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.400 in chief investment strategist at Point View Wealth Management. Do 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:23.040 you expect, to Pim's point, do you expect Warren Buffett 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:27.040 to be political in any way? Um? Well, already in 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.280 some comments earlier today, quite frankly, he was asked the 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.880 question about the economy, and the issue of tariffs did 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.080 come up, and of course he's a long term holder 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.400 of Sherwin Williams, the famous paint company, and he did 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.840 allude to tariffs by talking about hey either having to 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:45.960 pay a lot more for their pails and so um uh. 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.880 You know, having been at the annual meeting in in 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.920 May and and and knowing how he feels about tariffs, 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.520 he is very much a free trader, and so that 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.680 was kind of availed backhand negative comment on the whole 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.680 concept of tariffs. Um. The other thing that I thought 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:04.840 was most interesting that the issue of Jerome Powell came up. 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.200 Of course, he's the chair of the Federal Reserve. Um, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.359 we're in a period of slightly rising interest rates. But 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.679 what I really liked, I think boats well for the 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:17.960 Marcus as he expressed the most confidence in Mr Powell. 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.560 He said he's not perfect, but he's going to focus 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.920 on the job and he's well equipped to do the job. 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.119 And I thought that was a real plus for investors 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.840 going forward. Here David Deed's quick question to you, when 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:32.560 you are in Omaha attending the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:38.679 are you aficionado of dairy Queen. Well, you know, I 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.000 do smile, and I do like dairy Queen, to be 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.159 honest with you, and I do smile every time I 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:45.520 go there, knowing that in a very very small way, 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.719 I'm kind of benefiting from my purchase as a very 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.920 indirectly as a holder of Berkshire Hathway Stock. Hey, David 0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:55.040 Dean's Point View Wealth Management and stick with us also 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.320 not only dairy Queen, but also Diet Coke, right, because 0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:00.159 he's a very aficionado at the Oracle of Amaha of 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.520 Diet Coke. We seem to be having some technical difficulties 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.359 with respect to the interview, but a lot of really 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:10.760 interesting things. Pim uh that, Warren Buffett said there, and 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:12.560 just sort of digest some of these things. Let's bring 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.320 in David Deet's President, chief investment strategist at Point View 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:22.879 Wealth Management. Um, he sounded really bullish. What was your takeaway? Yeah, 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:25.440 I thought there's a couple of great things for investors 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:29.360 that we just heard. One is, don't time that market? 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.680 Is this a perfect time to invest? No, he said, 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.320 you know, it's not two thousand eight, nineteen seventy, it's 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:37.879 not nineteen seventy four, when was the cheapest period in 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:42.200 his lifetime. But still stocks look better than bonds. And 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.560 if you, you know, invest in a diverse array of stocks, 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:48.080 you're going to do well over the long haul. I 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:49.919 thought that was a great message. The second one is 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.840 always by quality. He talked about return on equities being 0:18:55.440 --> 0:19:00.320 look for companies which are making good money, um, the Apple, 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.600 they are deploying to have a sensible business plans and 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:08.520 tremendous some defensible brands, and buy them and hold them. 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.440 I thought that was just a great message. But David, 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.080 hang on just a second. I mean, it's hardly likely 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:17.160 that he would say anything that would be contrary to that, right. 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:19.720 I mean, that would be the news if Warren Buffett 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:21.359 came out and said I want to spend money on 0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:26.000 companies that deploy capital needlessly and heedlessly and spend it 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.920 on ridiculous things. I mean, that would be the headline. 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:32.680 I mean, it's not exactly Warren Buffett's forte to be 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.880 sort of tossing money around. I mean he's a kind 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:39.840 of parsimonious when it comes to his investment philosophy. Well, 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:42.399 I think you're exactly right, And if you read his 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:46.159 annual reports over the years and look at his latest activity. Obviously, 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:48.800 as he says, he's not out there with a shovel 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:52.320 putting money into the market. You know. Having said that, 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.560 of course, when you look at all the great investors 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.240 around the world and look at their track records, your 0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:01.520 heart pressed to identify somemon who has better. So even 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:05.560 though you could say he's talking his book a little bit, nevertheless, 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:07.760 I think you have to give him the benefit of 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.080 adapt because of how well he has done. Yeah. One 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:13.840 thing that I thought was really interesting was when David 0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:17.640 West of Liver Television asked him about a tool Goande, 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:22.000 the New Yorker writer and physician who Warren Buffett is 0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:25.480 taped to head his healthcare initiative, and David West asked, 0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:29.119 what's he doing? And Warren Buffett responded, he's thinking, what 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.919 did you make of that? Well, I mean, you know, 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:37.920 the healthcare issues are so far proved almost to be intractable. Um. 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:40.879 You know, the share of DDP in America keeps going 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:43.679 up this allocane net direction, and no one seems to 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:46.240 have the silver bullet as to how the rain cost 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:49.040 he had still provide Americans for the best healthcare possible. 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:52.520 That's why Warren and Jamie Diamond Uh and a couple 0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:54.679 of others have teamed together to try and come up 0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:57.920 with a solution. But from everything I heard this morning here, 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:01.640 no magic solution has been developed, but at least they're 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:04.480 working on it, and and that's where we are now 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:07.320 with the Warren's project there. Thanks very much for being 0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:09.960 with us. David Diets is the founder and the chief 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:15.040 investment strategist for Point View Wealth Management, helping to manage 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.879 more than three million dollars of customer assets based in Summit, 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:38.680 New Jersey. This was the year that oil was going 0:21:38.760 --> 0:21:42.520 to climb, possibly back to its prior highs, and yet 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.120 that was not to be. Joining us now to find 0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:48.960 out what to expect in the months ahead for the 0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:52.040 price of Crewed is Rob Hayworth, senior investment strategist at 0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:54.800 us Bank Wealth Management, helping to oversee it more than 0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:57.680 a hundred and fifty billion dollars of assets. Rob, thank 0:21:57.680 --> 0:21:59.880 you so much for being with us. I'm looking right 0:21:59.880 --> 0:22:03.920 now out crude just under seventy barrel, and I'm wondering, 0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:07.600 from your perspective, are we going to break out significantly 0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:10.000 to the upside of the downside, because frankly, it's been 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:13.240 split among the people we've spoken to, with people making 0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:17.000 arguments on either side. Yeah, our point of view is 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:19.399 for the rest of this year, you're probably actually range 0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:22.000 bound on oil at this point in time. There is 0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:25.199 a tremendous amount of bullish sentiment in the in the 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.280 futures market, but you're starting to turn the calendar from 0:22:29.320 --> 0:22:33.040 from peak demand summer season in into the softer demand 0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:36.600 fall season, so that's going to limit the upside. But 0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:38.439 there's a bit of a floor in here when you 0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:41.639 think about the Iran sanctions, the cuts in production that 0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.600 are going on in Iran. So we think right now 0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:48.560 this market is kind of caught between these two factors. Uh, 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:50.880 and we're probably going to stay in this in this 0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.480 price range for through the rest of the year. Well. 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:58.240 Obviously worth investing in domestic oil production, either in the 0:22:58.280 --> 0:23:02.600 midstream or up stream. Yeah. A couple of months ago 0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:05.800 we actually published a quick paper on an opportunity of 0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:10.280 midstream energy infrastructure companies, and we think that opportunity still exists. 0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:14.159 You've got oil prices hovering at this reasonable price range 0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.160 as we can you know, see even in the Permian 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:22.040 infrastructure is fairly tight, meaning there's not enough storage, there's 0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:26.520 not enough transportation UM and and so demand for these 0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:29.400