WEBVTT - Why Such Small Arms? 

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio the George

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<v Speaker 1>Washington Broadcast Center, Jack arms Strong and Joe Getty.

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<v Speaker 2>Arm Strong and Gatty Enough He Armstrong and Eddy.

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<v Speaker 3>The White House is billing this as a routine annual

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<v Speaker 3>dental and medical evaluation, though it's actually his third medical

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<v Speaker 3>exam in the past year.

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<v Speaker 2>All told, the President.

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<v Speaker 3>Spent about three and a half hours at Walter Reed

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<v Speaker 3>Medical Center today. White House officials telling us we should

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<v Speaker 3>get a readout from the president's doctor within the next

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<v Speaker 3>day or so, although, as you mentioned, Trump delivered his

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<v Speaker 3>own report right after the visit, which he called a

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<v Speaker 3>six month physical. He said, everything checked out perfectly.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't worry that Trump's got dementia or some secret

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<v Speaker 4>major health illness or whatever like that. But the idea

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<v Speaker 4>that we would get the truth out of these is

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<v Speaker 4>to me hilarious or even should or yes, or even

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<v Speaker 4>should Yeah, let's announce to China and all our enemies

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<v Speaker 4>and you ran or anything like that. He's really struggling

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<v Speaker 4>right now mentally and physically, so now would be a

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<v Speaker 4>good time to try to take advantage of him.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they're not going to tell us.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, as so often happens, the very premise of the

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<v Speaker 1>left is completely wrong. To continue briefly our discussion the

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<v Speaker 1>last hour, and we don't have to dig into this

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<v Speaker 1>in full right now, but I want to eventually. The

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<v Speaker 1>new leader of Massachusetts Top Teachers Union is a member

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<v Speaker 1>of the Democratic Socialists of America who says the US

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<v Speaker 1>is fascist, borders are for colonizers, and Israel's genocidal. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the head of the teachers union thinks this country

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<v Speaker 1>is fascist.

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<v Speaker 4>Speaking of heads of teachers' unions, Randy Wingarden just came

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<v Speaker 4>out with a statement that I agree with in part.

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<v Speaker 4>It's hilariously falling short because of the parent backlag against

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<v Speaker 4>rapid tech use in schools. Randy Weingarten is signed on

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<v Speaker 4>to no screens for second graders or younger, and no

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<v Speaker 4>AI chatbots for students in elementary schools.

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<v Speaker 2>Why we all don't.

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<v Speaker 4>Agree on a blanket ban of no screens in schools period,

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<v Speaker 4>I do not know. It's insane to me, so the

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<v Speaker 4>second graders and youngers younger. Of course, if you're in third, fourth,

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<v Speaker 4>fifth grade, or a senior high school sitting there staring

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<v Speaker 4>at your phone, it's perfectly okay.

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<v Speaker 2>While they try to teach you. What the hell are

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<v Speaker 2>we doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Keep in mind that if you have a PhD in

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<v Speaker 1>education or a master's, but especially you're really advanced degrees,

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<v Speaker 1>the only thing that can possibly justify your high, high

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<v Speaker 1>salary is if you innovate, and they're so obsessed with

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<v Speaker 1>it that they'll abandon something like phonics that works perfectly.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a miracle of effective teaching, but they've got to

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<v Speaker 1>flush it to make their salary worth it. We've come

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<v Speaker 1>up with a new innovative way. Well, the screens and

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<v Speaker 1>the tech were that for a lot of your education PhDs.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna usher in a new era of individualized blah

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<v Speaker 1>blah blah. And they've invested zillions of dollars in this stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, getting them to say no, we're totally wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, it's accomplishing the opposite of what we said.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a disaster and a squandering of taxpayer money. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>good luck with that.

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<v Speaker 4>If you want to some interesting stuff about the Supreme

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<v Speaker 4>Court and it's positive news, stay tuned because Sarah isger

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<v Speaker 4>in her new book, Last Branch Standing later this hour.

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<v Speaker 1>And it will cut through a lot of the just

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<v Speaker 1>utter crap that you hear about the Supreme Court these

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<v Speaker 1>days too. A couple of stupid headlines we will get to.

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<v Speaker 1>We can get to at least one. I'll let Jack

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<v Speaker 1>choose which one after some serious news. Your choice is

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<v Speaker 1>between a the race for California governor has become a.

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<v Speaker 2>Battle over facial hair huh.

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<v Speaker 1>Or new study suggests to have found why t Rex

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<v Speaker 1>evolved to have smaller arms.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh my, I think why the t Rex arms? Think?

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<v Speaker 2>My son told me about that. The other day.

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<v Speaker 4>I saw Katie Porter grew a handle bar mustache. So

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<v Speaker 4>is that what that's all about?

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<v Speaker 1>H Yes, it is, it is, and it's it's waxed,

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<v Speaker 1>it's curled at the ends. It's surprisingly alluring.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, wider vibes. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>So I made reference to this last hour. Phoenix built

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<v Speaker 1>an empire of cubical jobs, and AI is tearing it down.

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<v Speaker 1>The number of jobs lost and cubical jobs. They're talking

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<v Speaker 1>like customer service, data entry, payroll processing, that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 1>I've done that, yeah, which, as the journal points out,

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<v Speaker 1>created a vital ladder to the middle class, which helped

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<v Speaker 1>replace factory work which we exported during the China's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be our buddy if we just enriched them idiotic

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<v Speaker 1>period of our lives. But offshoring has been chipping away

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<v Speaker 1>at back office jobs for decades. But around sixteen and

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<v Speaker 1>a half million Americans still work in that sort of job.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's down a million and a half in the

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<v Speaker 1>last five years or so, and the number of customer

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<v Speaker 1>service representatives in Metro Phoenix alone has tumbled twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>percent in the most recent four year span that the

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<v Speaker 1>Department of Labor measured. Those jobs are going away in

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<v Speaker 1>a big hurry to AI systems and some additional offshoring.

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<v Speaker 4>So you lose those jobs, and then you got all

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<v Speaker 4>that office space that will be empty, which is its

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<v Speaker 4>own disruptor.

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<v Speaker 2>Right right.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, I've been to Phoenix plenty, my dad

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<v Speaker 1>lives in that area, but it hadn't dawned on me

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<v Speaker 1>that many of those sprawling, you know, three four story

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<v Speaker 1>office campuses, that's what was happening there. Phoenix, because it

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<v Speaker 1>had relatively inexpensive labor and relatively inexpensive real estate, became

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<v Speaker 1>like the nation center of that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But now it's getting hit hard.

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<v Speaker 4>How about all those empty giant buildings where people were

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<v Speaker 4>in there doing that entry of some sort that's something.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, indoor pickleball courts clearly and as usual as

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<v Speaker 1>you are the only commentator in America asking this question. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>all those jobs have been lost to AI, when does

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<v Speaker 1>the universal high income kick it right?

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<v Speaker 2>How those people get like back pay? Or when does

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<v Speaker 2>this switch get flipped?

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<v Speaker 4>What's the total amount of people that have lost jobs

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<v Speaker 4>to AI? Is it over a million yet? Ten thousand here,

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<v Speaker 4>twenty thousand there, thousand there. We've We've heard a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of these. But at what point do you start compensating

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<v Speaker 4>for this?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. Nobody's said right meta.

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<v Speaker 1>For instance, Mark Zuckerberg's outfit has laid off tens of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of people in recent months for AI driven reasons,

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<v Speaker 1>and they make a a heiny load of money. So

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<v Speaker 1>when is the redistribution going to start? Elon, I would

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<v Speaker 1>like to know that. Totally different topic. Europe is starting

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<v Speaker 1>to think Putin will expand the war beyond Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 4>Wow, Russia, and he's losing the in Ukraine. Why would

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<v Speaker 4>he expand it like as a distraction?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, yeah, he had a rally the country and I

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<v Speaker 1>can't imagine how it would work. But Russia's been making

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly belakost statements against the Baltic states, you're Latvia and

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<v Speaker 1>Lithuania and Estonia. It has threatened to bomb decision making

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<v Speaker 1>centers in Latvia after accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 1>drone operators, which the Latvian authorities deny. Air raid alarms

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<v Speaker 1>were sounded in Lithuania last week, forcing the government into

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<v Speaker 1>a bunker after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Russian Ministry of Defense has published the addresses

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<v Speaker 1>of companies allegedly working on drone production with Ukraine in

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<v Speaker 1>eight different European countries, warning of quote unpredictable consequences and

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<v Speaker 1>sharp escalation if military assistance to Kiev does not cease.

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<v Speaker 4>If Russia went into Lithuania, Latvia, one of those countries.

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<v Speaker 4>We're bogged down in Iran. We're not gonna like spend

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of time. Hey, Europe, you're worried about to

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<v Speaker 4>do something yourself. The whole Article five NATO thing, I

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<v Speaker 4>think just gets ignored more.

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<v Speaker 1>Or less, well, especially now under Trump. The other headline

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<v Speaker 1>is that the Pentagon is cutting forces earmarked for Europe

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<v Speaker 1>in the event of a crisis. We had a plan,

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<v Speaker 1>we will immediately send x number of troops to Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>The Pentagon is substantially scaling back to forces and plans

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<v Speaker 1>to send to Europe in a crisis. A fresh step

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<v Speaker 1>by the Trump administration to shrink its military support for NATO.

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<v Speaker 1>A Defense Department official notified NATO allies of the plan

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<v Speaker 1>cutbacks in a closed more door meeting last week in Brussels.

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<v Speaker 1>Current and former officials who have been briefed on the

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<v Speaker 1>meeting said the Trump administration aims to reduce by one

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<v Speaker 1>third to one half the pool of various military capabilities

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<v Speaker 1>it would devote to NATO in a conflict, including US

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<v Speaker 1>commitments of strategic bombers and other long range strike forces,

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<v Speaker 1>some naval assets, and air to air refueling tankers. And

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<v Speaker 1>it comes ahead of that move comes ahead of the

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<v Speaker 1>meeting of NATO leaders in Turkey in July, where Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is expected to attend the meeting and press other allied

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<v Speaker 1>leaders to shoulder more of the burden on Europe's defense,

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<v Speaker 1>which has needed to happen for a very very long time.

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<v Speaker 1>If a guy's going to take a look at both

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<v Speaker 1>sides of this issue, Trump is not wrong on this.

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<v Speaker 1>Things feel a little touchy to me right now to

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<v Speaker 1>go to hardcore down that road.

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<v Speaker 2>But people can differ.

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<v Speaker 4>If you're willing to explain why t rexes have tiny arms.

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<v Speaker 4>I've got a really entertaining hate text for us.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh good, excellent.

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<v Speaker 1>So a new study claims to have sawt the long

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<v Speaker 1>standing mystery why t rexes have such disproportionately small arms,

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<v Speaker 1>which have given people like me an excellent metaphor for

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<v Speaker 1>somebody who never picks up the check or disappears when

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<v Speaker 1>it's time for everybody to kick in. Oh they got

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<v Speaker 1>t rex items. They can't quit reach the bill. Oh

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<v Speaker 1>no they can't. They can't even get through the wallet.

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<v Speaker 1>That's too bid. Yeah, I'll name names too, anyway. A

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<v Speaker 1>Royal Society research paper published and may suggest that the

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<v Speaker 1>t rex, which averaged more than forty feet long with

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<v Speaker 1>arms stretching just three feet, naturally evolved smaller arms as

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<v Speaker 1>this skull grew larger. They looked at eighty five dinosaur

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<v Speaker 1>species and found a consistent correlation among five groups that

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<v Speaker 1>I won't bother mentioning because I'll mispronounce half of them,

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<v Speaker 1>each showing a pattern of larger skulls and shorter four

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<v Speaker 1>limbs and over time that increased, you know, proportionally more

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<v Speaker 1>and more as the dinosaurs evolve over a million in

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<v Speaker 1>the years. The idea being, once your head and jaws

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<v Speaker 1>got as big and powerful as they were, that's how

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna engage your prey. You're not gonna bother wrestling

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<v Speaker 1>with them or trying to claw at them, right, You're

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<v Speaker 1>just gonna awe chomp on them.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. If you've ever seen a good t rex skeleton

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<v Speaker 4>or a model or whatever, their heads are ginormous. My

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<v Speaker 4>son who's super into dinosaurs and evolution and wants to

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<v Speaker 4>study that for his life. I think it was shown

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<v Speaker 4>me a video where they took chickens and they put

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<v Speaker 4>some sort of a weighted tail on them that would

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<v Speaker 4>be similar to a t rex, and they think that

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<v Speaker 4>shows you what a t rex would have walked like.

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<v Speaker 4>Since a t rex and a chicken are very similar,

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<v Speaker 4>they just have a heavy innovative so that's kind of

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<v Speaker 4>the way that would have walked.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're saying that t rex was delicious one fry.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, here's our hate text.

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<v Speaker 4>It's actually I think a voicemail, So maybe we'll have

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<v Speaker 4>to get the audio because i'd kind of like to

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<v Speaker 4>hear what this person sounds like because it came out

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<v Speaker 4>through voice, but I've got the print version. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 4>just didn't want to waste my time on interrupting your ridiculous,

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<v Speaker 4>absolutely ridiculous show. But I didn't want to leave a

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<v Speaker 4>message and say I listened to talk radio ninety percent

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<v Speaker 4>of the time in my car, and I just don't

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<v Speaker 4>have any idea on earth. How you two knuckleheads got

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<v Speaker 4>a radio show. It is absolutely just beyond me and

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<v Speaker 4>some of the greatest radio hosts I've listened to over

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<v Speaker 4>the years.

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<v Speaker 2>How you two yo yo's ever got a radio show?

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<v Speaker 4>So you must have contacts with an owner of a

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<v Speaker 4>station or related to somebody, because you absolutely are the

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<v Speaker 4>most nonsensical people ever I have ever heard on a

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<v Speaker 4>radio show.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Donald Trump is my uncle. H oh my god,

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<v Speaker 2>oh jeez. Uh, there's so many options out there. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know why you wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 5>Just I know.

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<v Speaker 1>I've never understood people who take in entertainment that they

0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:55.439
<v Speaker 1>don't like and then decide to explain to the musician

0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 1>or artist or a talk show host why I don't

0:12:58.920 --> 0:12:59.240
<v Speaker 1>like you.

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 2>Okay, all right, dear paramount.

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.280
<v Speaker 4>I've been watching this series on Netflix every night, and

0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.600
<v Speaker 4>I just hate it. Well, there's a million there's way

0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.079
<v Speaker 4>too much romance and it's too much talking.

0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 2>I prefer more action pack sequences. What is the matter?

0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>I can't imagine how you even became a movie studio.

0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 2>You knuckleheads must know somebody. I wish we had that it.

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.040
<v Speaker 4>We got a lot more on the way, including Sarah

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 4>isg're about the Supreme Court. Gonna be good stuff.

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 2>Stay here.

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 4>I've talked up AI quite a bit for like advice

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 4>with various things, all kinds of things. Had a problem

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 4>my son's truck wouldn't start the other day, like why

0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 4>is it not starting? I gave it the specifics on

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.360
<v Speaker 4>a you know, the year model and everything like that. Man,

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.960
<v Speaker 4>it nailed it narrowed down to such a specific things.

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 4>It's incredible. But on like personal relationships like that as

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 4>therapy and so, I don't know if you all know

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.319
<v Speaker 4>who Mark Andriesen is. He's a columnist with the Washington Post.

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 4>I think anyway, he was on Joe Rogan for three

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 4>hours the other day talking about the benefits of AI,

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 4>and he was talking up the therapy thing for one.

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 4>A couple of things caught my eye because there was

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 4>some stuff bouncing around in our social media world and

0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.560
<v Speaker 4>our Twitter feed about somebody claiming that the trouble with

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 4>AI is it just it just tells you what you

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 4>want to hear all the time. I've not had that experience,

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 4>but you can make sure that you don't have that

0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 4>experience pretty easily. But anyway, let me hit you with

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:27.720
<v Speaker 4>a couple of things that Mark Andreesen said that AI

0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 4>can do for you already. You can send AI photos

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 4>of almost anything medical now and get a real second

0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 4>opinion very quickly. Skin rashes, blood test results, a mole,

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 4>pictures of your poop. The new models can read images,

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 4>not just text, and it's a free twenty four to

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 4>seven second opinion on basically anything that's very accurate.

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 2>Wow.

0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>So I can stop sending pictures of my poop to

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.920
<v Speaker 1>my friends and send it to AI instead.

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:53.520
<v Speaker 4>Or I have an excuse for why I have so

0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.600
<v Speaker 4>many pictures of poop on my phone.

0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.680
<v Speaker 2>Oh no, no, no, that makes sense, trust me. Oh my,

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 2>oh my, oh.

0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:05.240
<v Speaker 4>You mentioned here that the the best AI coders in

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.200
<v Speaker 4>Silicon Valley are making fifty million dollars a year working

0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 4>for the various AI companies.

0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 2>They're so in demand. Each company wants to have the

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 2>very best. Whooa wow.

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 4>Uh, here's a guy who paid two hundred dollars to

0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 4>get his entire DNA decoded. This usually costs millions of

0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 4>dollars and takes years to do.

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 2>Soon we'll all be getting this done. Uh. People take

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 2>a picture of his DNA or how does that?

0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 4>Somebody put cameras around them for their home jiu jitsu gym,

0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 4>and now AI watches them and gives it's like having

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 4>a world class coach. You could do it with golf, tennis,

0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 4>all kinds of different things.

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 2>WHOA what I know, I don't know. It didn't it

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:45.160
<v Speaker 2>didn't get into that.

0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 4>But wow, I'll skip to this one just because we're

0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 4>about out of time, because I thought it was really interesting.

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 4>The one type of therapy that's clinically proven to actually

0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:59.200
<v Speaker 4>work in the world is cognitive behavioral therapy CBT. It's

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 4>also something can fully do on its own, which means

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 4>every person on earth is about to have access to

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 4>a real therapist for any time they want. I've had

0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 4>that experience with like family stuff and all kinds of stuff.

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:13.680
<v Speaker 4>But he suggests if you tell the AI to steal

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 4>man the other side of this, like whatever it tells

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 4>you to do to make your argument for the other side,

0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 4>you'll get a good presentation of both sides and you

0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 4>can go from there. And I have done that, and

0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:29.080
<v Speaker 4>it's amazing. It's like watching two really smart people in

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 4>a debate about your topic and you can you know,

0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.360
<v Speaker 4>if you have any level of intelligence, I think, come

0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.040
<v Speaker 4>away with it what you think is the best course,

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 4>as opposed to it telling you everything you want to hear.

0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 1>A more nuanced and confident view of why you believe

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:48.320
<v Speaker 1>what you believe.

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.520
<v Speaker 1>I asked a question about a weather phenomenon the other

0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 1>day and the answer was just fascinating.

0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 4>It was absolutely fabulous. I think by taking a college class.

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:58.960
<v Speaker 4>I think the first time I ever heard the term

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.480
<v Speaker 4>Steelman to straw Man was from Sarah Isger on one

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 4>of her podcasts, and we're going to talk to her

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.520
<v Speaker 4>coming up next about her book she's got out about

0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:07.880
<v Speaker 4>the Supreme Court. It's really good.

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:11.680
<v Speaker 1>She has such a gift for making this stuff understandable.

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 2>Just terrific.

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and a question I've been wanting to ask her

0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 4>for a very long time. Man, if you miss it,

0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:21.639
<v Speaker 4>gets the podcast Armstrong and Getty on demand.

0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 5>Armstrong and Getty.

0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 4>We've been wanting to get Sarah igor on for a

0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:28.359
<v Speaker 4>long time. First became Wherever on the Dispatch and the

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.560
<v Speaker 4>podcast stuff there man. Anytime any big legal story breaks,

0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 4>I go to her twitter feed or wait for the

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 4>podcast she does with David French Advisory Opinions to get

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.200
<v Speaker 4>it laid out. And couldn't be happier to have her today.

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.359
<v Speaker 1>Yep, we're both big fans of Sarah Isger, editor of

0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>Scotis Blog, hosted the legal podcast in Firesorry Opinions, Legal

0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:49.280
<v Speaker 1>analyst for ABC News and author of a fabulous new book,

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>Last Branch Standing, a potentially surprising, occasionally witty journey inside

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 1>today's Supreme Court. A book so timely and important I

0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.480
<v Speaker 1>believe it should be a compulsory read for every American.

0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.399
<v Speaker 1>Not sure how that scores with the first time. Sarah, Welcome,

0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 1>How are you?

0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:05.760
<v Speaker 5>I'm great? Thank you guys for having me.

0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:07.880
<v Speaker 4>You bet you before we let you lay out the book.

0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 4>And here's the deal I'm gonna make with you. Even

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:11.920
<v Speaker 4>though we have no leverage. You're like the horror moves straight.

0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.959
<v Speaker 4>We have no leverage over you, but I let you

0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:17.760
<v Speaker 4>and I'll go out and buy a hard bound copy

0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.040
<v Speaker 4>of your book today, even though I'm getting a promotional copy.

0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:22.440
<v Speaker 4>If I can get you to do one of your screeds,

0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.199
<v Speaker 4>and there's so many, I would like the screed might

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.880
<v Speaker 4>be prejudicial. Maybe I'll go with presentation or something like that.

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 4>But and I could have you do why the whole

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.439
<v Speaker 4>crying fire in a crowded movie house is misrepresented?

0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:37.440
<v Speaker 2>I mean, there's so many of them. I for of

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 2>you do that.

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:40.840
<v Speaker 4>I love her greatest hits. Why there are no parties anymore?

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.880
<v Speaker 4>And it's a waste of time. I want to have

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:48.440
<v Speaker 4>you lay out the pointlessness of issue polling after the book,

0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.440
<v Speaker 4>because I want you to do that for our audience.

0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.320
<v Speaker 2>I really do. Excellent, No problem, it's done.

0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 5>I mean, you don't have to go to me into

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 5>doing a rant. I love a rant.

0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 2>Good.

0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:00.800
<v Speaker 1>All right, First things first, though, tell us about Last Standing.

0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 5>Well, part of the reason for this book is to

0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.240
<v Speaker 5>convince Americans that, yes, they're hearing so much more about

0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 5>the Supreme Court and that it is actually our most

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:15.679
<v Speaker 5>functional branch of government. But it is never the last

0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:18.840
<v Speaker 5>word in any of these fights that we're having on politics,

0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:21.919
<v Speaker 5>on culture, war, anything else. It is always up to

0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:24.439
<v Speaker 5>the American people. If you don't like something the Supreme

0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:28.040
<v Speaker 5>Court decided, we can amend the Constitution. We used to

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.480
<v Speaker 5>do it pretty frequently in response to Supreme Court decisions,

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.560
<v Speaker 5>and most of the decisions from the Supreme Court are

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.880
<v Speaker 5>actually just up to Congress. If you don't like partisan jerrymandering,

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 5>Congress can deal with that. Today, we just don't expect

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 5>them to. We don't make them, and we continue to

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.360
<v Speaker 5>vote for people who have no interest in actually legislating,

0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:54.440
<v Speaker 5>because legislation requires compromise, negotiation, actually working with someone who

0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:57.120
<v Speaker 5>disagrees with you. And it said, we keep electing people

0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 5>who are really good at putting out Instagram res bills

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.640
<v Speaker 5>yelling about how the other side is the problem.

0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:04.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I've listened to you so much.

0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:05.520
<v Speaker 4>I actually know what your answers are going to be

0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:09.480
<v Speaker 4>to all my questions, but I'll ask them anyway. What

0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:11.919
<v Speaker 4>you have us talker? Well, I am, I'm a fanboy,

0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:15.720
<v Speaker 4>wound boy. What changed? Why you know, if we used

0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:17.119
<v Speaker 4>to amend the Constitution all the time.

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:17.520
<v Speaker 2>What changed?

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:19.160
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:20.840
<v Speaker 5>I mean a few things. We can go back one

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.919
<v Speaker 5>hundred years to the progressive era, Woodrow Wilson, Teddy Roosevelt.

0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 5>They really wanted to remake the United States government and

0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:33.879
<v Speaker 5>move away from Congress again that messy, long negotiating process,

0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:36.719
<v Speaker 5>and they wanted it all to be housed by experts

0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 5>and independent agencies. It would be shielded from political influence.

0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:43.960
<v Speaker 5>So we've been doing that experiment for about one hundred years.

0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:47.920
<v Speaker 5>And then during the second term of the Obama administration,

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:52.560
<v Speaker 5>when his immigration legislation failed in the House because Republicans

0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.920
<v Speaker 5>wouldn't vote for it, he decided to do executive orders

0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:00.960
<v Speaker 5>to implement legislation. Now, it didn't last long. Those executive

0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:04.760
<v Speaker 5>orders were generally struck down by courts or President Trump

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:07.320
<v Speaker 5>came in and repealed them all his first day in office.

0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:11.199
<v Speaker 5>But it taught Congress that they don't need to do

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 5>legislation anymore because when their party has the White House,

0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:17.640
<v Speaker 5>they can get everything that they want. And sure it's

0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:19.760
<v Speaker 5>only for a couple of years, but they get the

0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:23.560
<v Speaker 5>Rose Garden address. Their base is happy, and nobody remembers

0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:25.639
<v Speaker 5>a few years later whose fault it is when it

0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:26.440
<v Speaker 5>all disappears.

0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:28.080
<v Speaker 4>So the whole I have a pen and a phone

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:32.560
<v Speaker 4>thing that took presidence, so essentially then tires.

0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:34.560
<v Speaker 5>Under government by executive order.

0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:35.720
<v Speaker 2>At this point, right.

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 1>I was just going to say, so Congress is not

0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:41.440
<v Speaker 1>legislating in the executive branch. Is is that most of

0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:43.280
<v Speaker 1>the reason there's so much of a spotlight on the

0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:45.560
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court these days, or what else is happening.

0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 5>I think that's right, you know, because Congress is where

0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:53.520
<v Speaker 5>we were supposed to work out these problems. Again, you know,

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.119
<v Speaker 5>I'm thinking of cases that are waiting at the Supreme

0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 5>Court right now, birthright citizenship, asylum at the southern border,

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.440
<v Speaker 5>or whether Mississippi can accept mail in ballots five days

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:06.600
<v Speaker 5>after the election. All of those are questions we're supposed

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 5>to work out in Congress. But because none of us

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:12.600
<v Speaker 5>believe that will happen, we end up bringing lawsuits to

0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:15.120
<v Speaker 5>court and asking the courts to work those out for us.

0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:17.920
<v Speaker 5>And so then we focus a lot more on the courts.

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:20.760
<v Speaker 5>It becomes really important who these judges are, and they

0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:25.359
<v Speaker 5>become part of our partisan disagreements instead of sort of

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:27.439
<v Speaker 5>the place of last resort to sort of, you know,

0:22:27.520 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 5>be a referee.

0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:32.399
<v Speaker 4>And we've seen the declining popularity numbers for the Supreme

0:22:32.400 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 4>Court because of this, putting them in an impossible situation

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:38.080
<v Speaker 4>on a bunch of this stuff. A reply to this,

0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:41.160
<v Speaker 4>this is an out of control right wing Trump court.

0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:46.119
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, the data isn't great for people who argue that.

0:22:46.600 --> 0:22:50.440
<v Speaker 5>So last term for six three cases, you know, where

0:22:50.480 --> 0:22:52.959
<v Speaker 5>all of the Republican appointees vote one way and all

0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 5>of the Democratic appointees vote the other way, which is

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:58.280
<v Speaker 5>what you would expect if this were a you know,

0:22:58.400 --> 0:23:02.359
<v Speaker 5>Republican Red team versus lou team court. That accounted for

0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:06.280
<v Speaker 5>drum roll, nine percent of the cases. So if that's

0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:08.520
<v Speaker 5>how you're predicting the outcome of Supreme Court cases, you're

0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:11.000
<v Speaker 5>going to get it wrong more than ninety percent of

0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:14.760
<v Speaker 5>the time. And even if you include the five four cases,

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 5>it turns out exactly equal numbers had all of the

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:21.520
<v Speaker 5>liberals in descent versus having all the liberals in the

0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:25.680
<v Speaker 5>majority and only conservatives in descent. Instead, you know, forty

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:28.119
<v Speaker 5>two percent of the cases are unanimous. That's the most

0:23:28.200 --> 0:23:31.840
<v Speaker 5>likely outcome of any case of the Supreme Court. Very few,

0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 5>as I say, fall against partisan lines. The other things

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:38.320
<v Speaker 5>we'd expect at this were a you know, Trump Supreme Court, Well,

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:40.280
<v Speaker 5>first of all, I guess we'd expect Trump to actually

0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:44.040
<v Speaker 5>win some cases. Right now, every major policy question that

0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 5>has come before the Supreme Court. He has lost Immigration,

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 5>Alien Enemies Act nope. Federalizing the National Guard nopeteris nope,

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 5>birthright citizenship. I will bet you a shiny nickel that

0:23:56.800 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 5>one's a hard no. So he keeps losing. In fact,

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:03.800
<v Speaker 5>in his first term he lost more than any president

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:06.720
<v Speaker 5>in United States history. He's the first president to ever

0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 5>be below fifty percent. At the Supreme Court, we'd expect

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 5>them to be overturning president, Nope, This court is overturning

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 5>fewer precedents than any court in modern history. We'd expect

0:24:17.040 --> 0:24:19.960
<v Speaker 5>them to be taking more cases. Nope, this court is

0:24:20.000 --> 0:24:23.679
<v Speaker 5>taking fewer cases than any court in recent history. So,

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 5>no matter what way you look at it, the data

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:28.399
<v Speaker 5>just isn't there. For the people who want to argue

0:24:28.400 --> 0:24:30.120
<v Speaker 5>that this is a partisan court.

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.119
<v Speaker 1>Well, let's be honest about what animates virtually all of

0:24:33.160 --> 0:24:37.600
<v Speaker 1>modern politics. You just raised zero dollars for the Democratic Party, Sarah,

0:24:37.640 --> 0:24:40.439
<v Speaker 1>So thanks for wasting our time. You noted and I

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:43.680
<v Speaker 1>found this so interesting that Brett Kavanaugh was more likely

0:24:43.720 --> 0:24:46.919
<v Speaker 1>to agree with Elena Kagan than Neil Gorsich.

0:24:47.000 --> 0:24:47.879
<v Speaker 2>What's going on there?

0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 5>Yeah? So, I mean britchkavn on Neil Gorsich are basically twins.

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:54.720
<v Speaker 5>They went to high school together, they had the same

0:24:54.920 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 5>history teacher. They clerked on the court together. They were

0:24:57.600 --> 0:24:59.800
<v Speaker 5>circuit judges at the same time. They were appointed by

0:24:59.800 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 5>this same president. They are federalist society lab creations with

0:25:03.840 --> 0:25:10.360
<v Speaker 5>good hair and conservative judicial principles. But last term they

0:25:10.400 --> 0:25:13.080
<v Speaker 5>only agree with each other fifty percent of the time.

0:25:13.200 --> 0:25:16.240
<v Speaker 5>As you say, Justice Kavanaugh was more likely to agree

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:20.920
<v Speaker 5>with Justice Kagan than he was with Justice Gorsich because

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:25.679
<v Speaker 5>Justice Kavanaugh is a high institutionalist. He thinks of this

0:25:25.760 --> 0:25:30.120
<v Speaker 5>as a team sport. He likes basketball and baseball. Justice Gorsicic,

0:25:30.440 --> 0:25:35.000
<v Speaker 5>He's a soloist. He likes skiing and running solo sports.

0:25:35.359 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 5>He is more like Justice Jackson, which is why you

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:42.600
<v Speaker 5>see them agreeing with each other's concurrences and why Justice

0:25:42.680 --> 0:25:45.720
<v Speaker 5>Kavanaugh is the justice most likely to be in the majority.

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:47.879
<v Speaker 5>He is the swing justice as of now.

0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:51.680
<v Speaker 4>Sarah Isger's book is called Last Branch Standing. In the

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 4>first sentence in the promotional stuff, is here a myth

0:25:53.920 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 4>busting glimpse into the inner workings of the Supreme Court.

0:25:56.320 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 4>And you've already busted a few myths?

0:25:58.560 --> 0:26:00.480
<v Speaker 2>What? How?

0:26:00.800 --> 0:26:03.600
<v Speaker 4>How worried are you about the declining faith in the

0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 4>Supreme Court because of the untrue partisan things people have

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:10.640
<v Speaker 4>been saying on both sides now for several cycles.

0:26:11.440 --> 0:26:12.760
<v Speaker 5>Well, let me give you the good news and the

0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:15.760
<v Speaker 5>bad news. The good news is that the Supreme Court

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:19.320
<v Speaker 5>is still more popular than the President or Congress. So

0:26:19.359 --> 0:26:21.640
<v Speaker 5>if we're just fighting among the three branches of government,

0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:25.760
<v Speaker 5>definitely the Supreme Court is winning. The bad news is

0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:29.040
<v Speaker 5>that our courts tend to be a lagging indicator of

0:26:29.080 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 5>our politics. So another title for the book could have

0:26:31.720 --> 0:26:35.879
<v Speaker 5>been last branch standing dot dot dot for now, because

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:39.000
<v Speaker 5>everything that we're doing now will eventually be reflected in

0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:42.480
<v Speaker 5>the courts, and there are warning signs. Getting rid of

0:26:42.480 --> 0:26:45.359
<v Speaker 5>the filibuster means that we now appoint judges who didn't

0:26:45.359 --> 0:26:47.720
<v Speaker 5>get any votes from the other side of the aisle.

0:26:48.000 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 2>That is not great.

0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:53.280
<v Speaker 5>That is going to read more extreme judges who are outliers,

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:55.440
<v Speaker 5>and it's going to change the behavior of people who

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:59.199
<v Speaker 5>want to become judges to be more partisan, more outspoken,

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:02.800
<v Speaker 5>lock themselves into certain positions. We have forum shopping now

0:27:02.840 --> 0:27:05.520
<v Speaker 5>that we didn't used to have. That's not great. You know,

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:07.399
<v Speaker 5>you could be the most fair judge in the world.

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 5>But if everyone knows that one side picked you, it

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:13.639
<v Speaker 5>doesn't look that fair to anyone. So, you know, I

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:16.800
<v Speaker 5>think those are things we can pretty easily fix, but

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:19.679
<v Speaker 5>it's not great. And the more we pull the courts

0:27:19.680 --> 0:27:23.760
<v Speaker 5>into our partisan politics, negative polarization. I mean, we have

0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:27.520
<v Speaker 5>a really toxic political environment right now. We cannot have

0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:28.760
<v Speaker 5>the courts reflect that.

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Let's go a little ABC one two three about the

0:27:33.240 --> 0:27:36.280
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court kind of basic stuff. I think a lot

0:27:36.280 --> 0:27:40.000
<v Speaker 1>of folks, particularly on the left, think it's about choosing

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:42.760
<v Speaker 1>the right result, period, and a lot of us on

0:27:42.800 --> 0:27:45.280
<v Speaker 1>the right would like to believe that the court does

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:49.520
<v Speaker 1>nothing but look at the Constitution and the law and precedent,

0:27:49.560 --> 0:27:52.800
<v Speaker 1>and they may despise the result. But we've got to

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:57.199
<v Speaker 1>go with with this is that's oversimplified obviously, But is

0:27:57.200 --> 0:27:59.439
<v Speaker 1>that characterization of the left and right, at least on

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:00.200
<v Speaker 1>the right track.

0:28:02.160 --> 0:28:06.000
<v Speaker 5>You know, I think I think the conservative right wanted

0:28:06.040 --> 0:28:09.240
<v Speaker 5>to think that about themselves, but it's pretty clear now

0:28:09.640 --> 0:28:13.479
<v Speaker 5>that that's not true. Both sides only care about outcomes. Really.

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:16.040
<v Speaker 5>You see the right attack the Supreme Court every time

0:28:16.080 --> 0:28:19.360
<v Speaker 5>they rule against Donald Trump, sometimes specific justices and very

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 5>personal terms. You know, the attacks against Justice amy Cony

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 5>Barrett got very gendery in my opinion, and I think

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:30.840
<v Speaker 5>that there's a natural human tendency to care about the outcome.

0:28:30.880 --> 0:28:33.440
<v Speaker 5>I get it. But the Supreme Court's job is never

0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:37.399
<v Speaker 5>to say, you know what the good policy is. It

0:28:37.480 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 5>is to say who gets to decide? So you're mad

0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:43.840
<v Speaker 5>that the book is in your local school library, the Supreme

0:28:43.840 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 5>Court isn't going to tell you whether that's a good

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 5>book or a bad book for kindergarteners to read. Their

0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 5>question is who get to decide whether that's a good

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:53.720
<v Speaker 5>book or a bad book? Is it the librarian, is

0:28:53.720 --> 0:28:56.840
<v Speaker 5>it the parent coming into the library. Is it the

0:28:57.280 --> 0:29:00.680
<v Speaker 5>you know, city mayor? Is it a state legislation? Is

0:29:00.720 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 5>it the governor? Is it Congress? Those are the questions

0:29:05.000 --> 0:29:07.520
<v Speaker 5>that the Supreme Court decides. They're never deciding which book

0:29:07.520 --> 0:29:08.000
<v Speaker 5>it should be?

0:29:09.120 --> 0:29:12.000
<v Speaker 1>Right, I meant the justice is more than the average

0:29:12.280 --> 0:29:17.240
<v Speaker 1>commentator or voter. For instance, Justice Jackson strikes me as

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.520
<v Speaker 1>just wanting the result, no matter how she has to

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:20.360
<v Speaker 1>twist the law.

0:29:22.000 --> 0:29:25.560
<v Speaker 5>Well, what's interesting because the legal left for a long

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 5>time sort of had this idea of living constitutionalism. The

0:29:29.640 --> 0:29:33.120
<v Speaker 5>constitution evolves as our culture evolves. And it is up

0:29:33.160 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 5>to the nine justices on the Supreme Court to decide

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 5>where it has evolved to President Lyndon Johnson famously once

0:29:41.600 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 5>said it takes two thirds of Congress and three quarters

0:29:44.360 --> 0:29:47.520
<v Speaker 5>of the States to amend the Constitution. Justice Douglas can

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:50.600
<v Speaker 5>do it in an afternoon. That was really where they were.

0:29:51.160 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 5>That had basically disappeared from the legal left, and yet

0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:56.600
<v Speaker 5>nothing has yet replaced it. And so I think you

0:29:56.640 --> 0:29:59.360
<v Speaker 5>see Justice Jackson trying to come up with a new

0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:03.800
<v Speaker 5>legal fullhilosophy for the legal left that yes, will produce

0:30:03.880 --> 0:30:09.000
<v Speaker 5>liberal results, but they can be sort of intellectually, you know,

0:30:09.080 --> 0:30:11.680
<v Speaker 5>built a new house, if you will, on the block

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:16.760
<v Speaker 5>of judicial philosophy. And look, like I said, nine percent

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:20.680
<v Speaker 5>of the cases were six three along ideological lines. So

0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 5>I also think it's unfair to say ideology plays no

0:30:24.000 --> 0:30:26.680
<v Speaker 5>role in Supreme Court decisions nine percent of the time.

0:30:26.680 --> 0:30:29.400
<v Speaker 5>It does. It's just that ninety one percent of the

0:30:29.400 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 5>time something else is at work.

0:30:31.560 --> 0:30:34.040
<v Speaker 4>So the book is last branch standing. Couldn't recommend it

0:30:34.040 --> 0:30:35.880
<v Speaker 4>more highly. I've heard Sarah talk about it in a

0:30:35.880 --> 0:30:37.760
<v Speaker 4>bunch of different podcasts, and I'm sure I will eventually

0:30:37.800 --> 0:30:39.720
<v Speaker 4>read it. She explains this stuff in a way that

0:30:40.480 --> 0:30:42.760
<v Speaker 4>idiots like me can understand it in an entertaining way.

0:30:42.880 --> 0:30:47.280
<v Speaker 4>So you have worked on presidential campaigns. You worked for

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:50.240
<v Speaker 4>Carly Fiorina. We used to have her on regularly back

0:30:50.240 --> 0:30:52.640
<v Speaker 4>in the day when she was running. But anyway, I know,

0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 4>with your background and a bunch of different areas, you

0:30:56.440 --> 0:31:00.760
<v Speaker 4>don't think issue polling has much merit.

0:31:01.040 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 2>Explain that.

0:31:03.800 --> 0:31:07.000
<v Speaker 5>Oh, okay, deep breast, Sarah, don't go too far.

0:31:07.240 --> 0:31:08.800
<v Speaker 2>Okay, here's too far.

0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:14.080
<v Speaker 5>Here's the problem. When we do candidate polling, we can

0:31:14.120 --> 0:31:16.520
<v Speaker 5>actually judge whether the poll is any good because we

0:31:16.560 --> 0:31:19.200
<v Speaker 5>have an election day, right, there is a backstop to

0:31:19.240 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 5>the polling. We never can do that with issue polling.

0:31:21.960 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 5>We can never find out whether that poll was a

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 5>good poll or a bad pole. There's no way to

0:31:26.280 --> 0:31:29.760
<v Speaker 5>grade it. So that's a big problem, right. But there's

0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:33.160
<v Speaker 5>another problem. When you ask people what candidates they intend

0:31:33.240 --> 0:31:37.080
<v Speaker 5>to vote for, that's a very binary choice. They understand

0:31:37.080 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 5>what an election is and that they're going to go

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:40.760
<v Speaker 5>in and check the box for one person or the other.

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:44.040
<v Speaker 5>And remember, those poles still aren't perfect when it comes

0:31:44.080 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 5>to issue polling. Oftentimes, the question you're asking people is

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:51.560
<v Speaker 5>it the question they think they're answering. You know, do

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:53.880
<v Speaker 5>you think the straits of horror moves should be open

0:31:54.000 --> 0:31:57.200
<v Speaker 5>or whatever? Well kind of depends what are the trade offs?

0:31:57.320 --> 0:31:59.440
<v Speaker 5>Are you going to list all of the potential trade

0:31:59.480 --> 0:32:03.000
<v Speaker 5>offs in that question? You've only got like thirty seconds

0:32:03.040 --> 0:32:04.959
<v Speaker 5>to ask them a question and get them to answer it.

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 5>And that's why you get so many different results with

0:32:08.200 --> 0:32:11.680
<v Speaker 5>issue polling. It's also the case that sometimes people hear

0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 5>a question that can be about a very specific issue,

0:32:14.720 --> 0:32:17.280
<v Speaker 5>but what they're answering, what they think they you really

0:32:17.320 --> 0:32:19.880
<v Speaker 5>want to know is who do you support for president?

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:23.000
<v Speaker 5>So you know, do you like ex policy or why policy?

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:27.080
<v Speaker 5>The answer is do you like Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

0:32:27.520 --> 0:32:29.840
<v Speaker 5>And so you're rarely getting the answer that I think

0:32:29.880 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 5>you want. If you're asking the same question, the exact

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:38.520
<v Speaker 5>same question over time, and that moves that is interesting

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.920
<v Speaker 5>to me, right, like not the raw number, but like,

0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:45.360
<v Speaker 5>oh it is moved by seven points in the last month. Well,

0:32:45.400 --> 0:32:48.200
<v Speaker 5>something that has changed if you're asking the exact same question.

0:32:48.880 --> 0:32:50.320
<v Speaker 5>But that's rarely what we're doing.

0:32:50.760 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 4>Do you regularly hear because in talk radio we do

0:32:53.240 --> 0:32:55.640
<v Speaker 4>it all the time. Forty three percent of Americans, blah

0:32:55.640 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 4>blah blah. Do you regularly slap your forehead with Oh

0:32:58.280 --> 0:33:00.480
<v Speaker 4>my god, there's no way there's any accuracy there.

0:33:02.000 --> 0:33:03.840
<v Speaker 5>I sort of turned into like a rain Man type

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:06.080
<v Speaker 5>figure where I start saying that that's not a real pull.

0:33:06.160 --> 0:33:07.640
<v Speaker 5>That's not a real pull. Don't do it, that's not

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:08.160
<v Speaker 5>a real pull.

0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:10.280
<v Speaker 2>Perfect.

0:33:10.320 --> 0:33:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Sarah Isger's new book is Last Branch Standing. Can't wait

0:33:12.880 --> 0:33:14.640
<v Speaker 1>to read it to Sarah. What a pleasure has been.

0:33:14.680 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I hope we can do it again soon.

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:19.400
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, thanks guys, you all right, thank you?

0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:22.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've heard her go on at lengthd

0:33:22.040 --> 0:33:27.840
<v Speaker 4>about our issue polling except in extreme situations is almost useless,

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 4>like it's close to your better off having never heard

0:33:31.080 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 4>it than coming away with any information. I have follow

0:33:34.400 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 4>up comments as well, Yeah, weld them more on the way,

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:37.360
<v Speaker 4>stay here.

0:33:38.760 --> 0:33:39.880
<v Speaker 5>Arm strong and getty.

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:47.400
<v Speaker 4>My god, Sarah is amazing. I want to kiss her brain,

0:33:47.560 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 4>says one Texter among many who enjoyed our interview with

0:33:51.200 --> 0:33:54.600
<v Speaker 4>Sarah Isger that we just finished up. Please have Sarah

0:33:54.640 --> 0:33:57.160
<v Speaker 4>on as often as you can. We we definitely will.

0:33:57.200 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 4>She's a very busy person. She now her main job

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:01.240
<v Speaker 4>now that I know, she's so proud of as editor

0:34:01.280 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 4>of Scotus Blog because she is a serious legal mind

0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:07.880
<v Speaker 4>and I think one of her great talents in it.

0:34:07.880 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 4>It's a rare talent is people who are super smart

0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 4>and knowledgeable about any topic, who can see the way

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:19.840
<v Speaker 4>other people think about it, not having your level of knowledge.

0:34:19.880 --> 0:34:24.600
<v Speaker 4>That's what the UI thing is in tech user interface.

0:34:24.719 --> 0:34:27.120
<v Speaker 4>It's the ability to know, Okay, somebody as sits down

0:34:27.120 --> 0:34:29.760
<v Speaker 4>with this you know, laptop or gets in this car,

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 4>what are they going to think? As opposed to someone

0:34:32.080 --> 0:34:34.720
<v Speaker 4>like you who knows everything, and she can explain stuff

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:35.920
<v Speaker 4>so well to idiots like me.

0:34:36.000 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 2>I really enjoy it.

0:34:36.719 --> 0:34:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, she senses where her audience is and delivers, you know,

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 1>on that level, which is great. It's a Senda Furian skill,

0:34:44.840 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 1>Tim is, you know, one of the best ever at it.

0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:47.040
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:34:47.120 --> 0:34:49.040
<v Speaker 1>The thing that strikes me that that bothers me so

0:34:49.120 --> 0:34:52.359
<v Speaker 1>much about modern politics in the Supreme Court is that

0:34:52.880 --> 0:34:55.520
<v Speaker 1>enthusiasm has always been part of politics. And I've got

0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:57.360
<v Speaker 1>some great stories about that that we really don't have

0:34:57.400 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 1>time for, but about how it was in the old

0:35:00.080 --> 0:35:06.480
<v Speaker 1>timey days. But enthusiasm these days means rage most of

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:10.400
<v Speaker 1>the time. That the surest way to raise people's attention

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:14.720
<v Speaker 1>and money, is to convince them that there's a horrible

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:18.120
<v Speaker 1>injustice being done and they've got to be really, really angry.

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.640
<v Speaker 1>And the Supreme Court now with its outsized influence for

0:35:21.680 --> 0:35:25.200
<v Speaker 1>the reason Sarah was describing, it's become a target of

0:35:25.360 --> 0:35:28.120
<v Speaker 1>rage in a way that is not helpful. That's not

0:35:28.200 --> 0:35:30.640
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be their vibe at all.

0:35:31.200 --> 0:35:33.320
<v Speaker 4>Well, if presidents would quit thinking they can fix everything

0:35:33.360 --> 0:35:35.360
<v Speaker 4>with an executive order, it would help. If you missed

0:35:35.520 --> 0:35:38.120
<v Speaker 4>our interview with Rai Sarah, get the podcast.

0:35:38.239 --> 0:35:42.800
<v Speaker 5>Please are strong and Getty