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Speaker 1: Your tunes about Drive on Home of the Black and

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Speaker 1: Gold Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back to the Drive. I'm

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Speaker 1: blwy here with Matt Williamson and Matt it's a time

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Speaker 1: for we're fantasy football focus meets reality here. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: like it. So I've got Mike Clay's projections in front

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Speaker 1: of me here or one season when they go over

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Speaker 1: the Steelers roster here will look at some other things

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Speaker 1: here that's gonna jump in division or whatever else too, Okay,

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Speaker 1: So I've got the seer projections. His projection on Ben

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Speaker 1: Roethlisberger is that he plays in sixteen games. I assume

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Speaker 1: I've never done projections, but I assume you have to

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Speaker 1: project guys who you know are gonna be starters and

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Speaker 1: play sixteen games. Like I wonder what he's how it

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Speaker 1: pre projects Andy Dalton versus fields like I remember, now

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Speaker 1: there's seventeen games, so I guess you don't. Yeah. So

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Speaker 1: his projection here for Ben Roethlisberger is four thousand two

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Speaker 1: passing yards, okay, twenty nine touchdowns, thirteen interceptions, twenty nine sacks,

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Speaker 1: time sacked, which would be a big yeah, twice and

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Speaker 1: twice as many more than the he was sacked last year.

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Speaker 1: I'm hoping that means that they throw the ball downfield

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Speaker 1: a little more, But that seems like a high number.

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Speaker 1: Um in terms of fantasy he has him in terms

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Speaker 1: of fantasy co r backs as the number seventeen in

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Speaker 1: points at two sixte um. Well, that's where it doesn't

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Speaker 1: meet reality. He's not gonna run, so you know, the

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Speaker 1: passing numbers would probably be twelveth or so. Yeah, but

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Speaker 1: if Ben Roethlisberger throws for yards with twenty nine touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes this year, UM, thirteen interceptions is sixteen games, I

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Speaker 1: can see, you know, I think that's reasonable numbers. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, um, you would hope that if you're taking

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Speaker 1: twenty nine sacks that there's more longer developing patterns. Um.

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Speaker 1: What we're not talking about is, Okay, he throws for

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Speaker 1: twenty nine touchdowns, but maybe they get seven or eight

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Speaker 1: more rushing touchdowns as a team than they did, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean. Like, and I'm looking into how

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Speaker 1: other numbers would extrapolate off of that one, But on

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Speaker 1: a you know, just reading the back of the football card,

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Speaker 1: that's that would be an acceptable year for Ben and

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Speaker 1: would give the team a pretty strong chance to win.

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Speaker 1: They would be pretty yeah. Yeah again, and twenty touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes give you to win a lot of games, right

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Speaker 1: with the defense and expanded better running game, you would assume. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: speaking of the running games, I figured we'd go that direction.

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Speaker 1: Nausea Harris projection. I can almost say I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the over and on this, no matter what they say.

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Speaker 1: But fair enough, fifteen games, two carries, I'm going over that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: one thousand, fifty four yards. I'm going over that. Seven

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Speaker 1: rushing touches fifteen games, he said. I mean I would

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Speaker 1: assume most running backs, they assume we'll miss a little time.

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Speaker 1: Seven rushing touchdowns. No, I'm going over that too, But okay,

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Speaker 1: sixty six targets, that's a reasonable I mean, Mike Lay

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Speaker 1: does a really good job. I think he's the best

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Speaker 1: projection guy out there. Fifty catches, yeah, I'll take that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: three hundred seventy nine receiving yards. I actually would go

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Speaker 1: over that. Go over that. If you catch, if they're

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Speaker 1: gonna they're gonna use him like they use Levy on Bell. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Levy on Bell. And some of those year years, especially

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Speaker 1: early in his career, was the average ten yards of

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Speaker 1: catch just they're not dump offs. They're splitting them out

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Speaker 1: wide and getting them the ball in space. Right. If

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Speaker 1: he gets just fifty balls, I think he'll go well

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Speaker 1: over that yard. He might break a couple too. He

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Speaker 1: might break a couple. Wasn't sure. They'll be screens that

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Speaker 1: get blown up and you get zero and you know,

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Speaker 1: like everybody else. But I do think he'll run some

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Speaker 1: longer developing routes than that. Um, I was gonna say

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Speaker 1: on that, I forget who I was listening to, who

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Speaker 1: was one of the few national fantasy people that I

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Speaker 1: think is starting to really catch on with Harris, And

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Speaker 1: he only had like three or four backs in the

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Speaker 1: league getting more touches, more usage. Even at this Clay's

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Speaker 1: Clay is projecting him at two touches. There's a big number,

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Speaker 1: But I don't think I'll go over if he stays healthy. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and I think he'd like d Alvin Cook and McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: and a couple of others, but not many that touched

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Speaker 1: the ball more than Harris, which is that puts him

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Speaker 1: into two fantasy points, which would be in his projections

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Speaker 1: among running backs. Again, I'm gonna going over. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking him in the first round when when you know,

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Speaker 1: when it hits the fan come September time. Uh, he's

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Speaker 1: projecting Benny Snell with fifty four carries for two yards

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Speaker 1: and two touchdowns. You and I got a tweet not

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Speaker 1: to go off the subject, but someone wrote us he

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Speaker 1: really hopes that the backfield goes Harris, McFarlane, bellage. I

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Speaker 1: think those guys have the highest ceiling. I think McFarland

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Speaker 1: is going to play more than people think. Do you

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Speaker 1: think McFarland will have more touches and Snell? Maybe not

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Speaker 1: more than Snell because I think they'll use Snell in

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Speaker 1: some short yardage situations kind of to take Mike Tomlins

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Speaker 1: a bell cow guy. Yeah, but you can do that

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Speaker 1: while also not running your your first round draft pick

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Speaker 1: into the ground and therefore maybe use It's it's third

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Speaker 1: and one, let's run Snell. The offensive line is really

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Speaker 1: firing off the ball here. Let's save you know, uh, nausea,

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Speaker 1: Harris a high to get beat up and get something right.

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Speaker 1: He's running hard enough here, he's getting he's gonna get

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Speaker 1: twenty kerries. Let's let Snell take this one. Yeah. I

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Speaker 1: don't disagree with you, but it wouldn't shock me. If

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Speaker 1: you're gonna take Harris off the field for a whole series,

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Speaker 1: which is gonna happen every game here and there. You

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Speaker 1: know he's not gonna play every stat I wonder if

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be more McFarland or Snell series. I think

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Speaker 1: it might depend on the team too, who you're playing

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Speaker 1: playing against. Yeah, I don't think Harrison Snell will ever

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Speaker 1: be on the field together. I think Harrison mcfarlis McFarland

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Speaker 1: could be. Yeah, I think you could see that, right.

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Speaker 1: I don't wear Blage fits in, but we'll see. I

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Speaker 1: think you know, if he does he beat up Benny

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Speaker 1: Snell or not. That's the question. And a huge factor

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Speaker 1: with the three of them are who's good on teams? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, you need your running back Like people don't

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Speaker 1: think about this, but a big reason Todd Gurley's not

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Speaker 1: signed is obviously medical and whatnot. But I play any

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Speaker 1: team can't have a third running back that doesn't help

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Speaker 1: me on kickoff and punts. Yeah yeah, right, wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: This is where it gets interesting. I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: the target totals for each one of these receivers. Tell

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Speaker 1: me if you think it's on on par or give

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Speaker 1: me the numbers and I'll guess with the name. Okay,

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Speaker 1: first number is one. I hope that's Dante. That is

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Speaker 1: Deonte Johnson. Ok Yeah, that's a big number. It's a

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Speaker 1: big number. I don't think it's off though. Yeah, um

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Speaker 1: on Juju, that's Juju. Okay. I agree that that's probably

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Speaker 1: how it goes. Target wise one nineteen Claypool. That's Claypool, okay.

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Speaker 1: And then Washington at forty, Ray Ray McLeod at twenty.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Johnson. I don't even know if he makes a team.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. He's at seven. Okay, I'm about sure. Not

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Speaker 1: that that really matters, but I'm not sure anyone out

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Speaker 1: of the top four gets anything at all. Of note

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Speaker 1: I mean Ebron, I guess he didn't didn't include a

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Speaker 1: um he has Hunston hundred forty six targets, ninety four

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Speaker 1: receptions for a thousand and four yards with six touchdowns. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think he may be more. Eleven eleven

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Speaker 1: fifty yard joins four catches A nice nice number for

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Speaker 1: it is. It's a very nice number. Um Smith Schuster

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Speaker 1: eighty nine catches for nine five yards and six touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure what that equated. I'm not doing the

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Speaker 1: math off top of my head. I bet his yards

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Speaker 1: for catch goes up. Well, these are all these guys

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Speaker 1: are all averaging more than ten yards of catch. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: both of those guys, I should say. I know the

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Speaker 1: Drews gonna play outside as much as he wants, but

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Speaker 1: I think his depth of targets gonna go up. Everyone's will. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then clay Pools at seventee sixty nine and seven scores,

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Speaker 1: that sounds about right. Yeah, I don't. I can't have

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Speaker 1: a lot of battles with those numbers. They all were

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Speaker 1: gonna hurt each other a little bit, a little bit,

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Speaker 1: you know, in a good way. But they're all like

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Speaker 1: if you look at the Fantasy rankings here for him,

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Speaker 1: he's got Johnson with two thirty one points, Smith Schuster

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Speaker 1: with two seventeen, Claypool with to sixteen. That puts them

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Speaker 1: at twenty and thirty feet in wide receiver scoring according

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Speaker 1: to his projections. I think you'd take that. When it's

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Speaker 1: all said and done, you get three guys in the

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Speaker 1: top thirty one or whatever, that's pretty darn good. I

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Speaker 1: think i'd take Clay Pool over Juju for Fantasy production

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Speaker 1: this year. Yeah, but Deonte would be my number one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: of the three, I think you take Clay Pool. It's

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Speaker 1: just because you know that the depth, the touchdowns, in

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Speaker 1: depth the target is going to be better. And with Juju,

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Speaker 1: you're take you're looking more for the PPR fact. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 1: right right, yeah, agree, good way of saying it. Um.

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Speaker 1: I do think there'll be some weeks that are Juju weeks,

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Speaker 1: some weeks that are Claypol weeks. I think every week

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Speaker 1: will be a Deonte week. Trying to guess which one's

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Speaker 1: get asked that a lot when I do, like the

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Speaker 1: national radio, they want to go on like serious fantasy,

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Speaker 1: which one is gonna be the guy? And I'm like,

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Speaker 1: your guess as good as mine. But I know Deante

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Speaker 1: Johnson is gonna get peppered with targets exactly. But it

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Speaker 1: shocked me last year, even week twelve thirteen, I'd be

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Speaker 1: asked those those questions, Who's gonna be the number one?

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Speaker 1: I can tell you the number one is. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure the number two is. That's the question, not don

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Speaker 1: Who's the number one? Uh Ebron and Friarmouth. I think

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Speaker 1: friar muth will heard ebronze numbers a little, but he's not.

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Speaker 1: Bron is not going away. Hebron eighty targets. Okay, that's

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Speaker 1: more than Washington, less than the three receivers correctly, Okay,

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Speaker 1: then I agree with that. That's fourth most on the

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Speaker 1: team without that gets slatted. Yeah. Fifty one catches Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a good number. Five twelve yards and five touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: That's good efficiency per catch. Yeah, you know about ten

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Speaker 1: yards of catch and touched on every ten catches. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 1: right right, No, I think that's what you want out

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Speaker 1: of him. Uh Friarmouth. Twenty targets, Yeah, I think so

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Speaker 1: as well. Fourteen catches on three yards in a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: I mean the target number. See, I think he's gonna

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Speaker 1: I think it's forty targets. Abron might not get to

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Speaker 1: the eighty targets, is my especially now the fact that

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Speaker 1: he's saying that they're gonna be a hundred and seven

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Speaker 1: because he got Gentry Gentry with seven targets. A hundred

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Speaker 1: and seven targets for the tight end room sounds probably

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Speaker 1: right in that range. Probably they're split up is going

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Speaker 1: to be the difference and how efficient they are with

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Speaker 1: those targets, is also going to be again, doing projections

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Speaker 1: is hard and I've never done them. But he has

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Speaker 1: catches going to McLeod Johnson Gentry, which I realized the

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Speaker 1: bottom of the roster guys will catch a passes here,

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Speaker 1: but they might not. There's no guarantee there. Like I mean,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Washington doesn't have a hard enough time see

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Speaker 1: in the field. Are we really sure the fifth and

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Speaker 1: six receivers and third tight ends are actually gonna get targets?

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Speaker 1: I mean more than five, I mean, let alone twenty combined.

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Speaker 1: Let's put the I mean he has he has Jaylen

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Speaker 1: Samuel is getting thirteen targets. Yeah, him and Gentry might

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Speaker 1: not even know they're gonna be on a team, right right,

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Speaker 1: but that means somebody else will or whomever. So those

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Speaker 1: I think those, you know, the way he has sorted out,

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Speaker 1: a percentage of those will go to Friarmouth because I

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Speaker 1: think he's more twenty targets. I think so it's two. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think he plays more than snaps.

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Speaker 1: So you know, he also broke breaks down the defensive

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Speaker 1: side of things. Yeah, how about this so defensive lineman,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give you read you sack totals here

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Speaker 1: for them. What's gonna be first, Well, they're broken defensive

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Speaker 1: ends here and a little separate. Okay, So he's got

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Speaker 1: Cam Hayward at four and a half sacks, I was

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Speaker 1: very low. I'm going over that he was low last year.

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Speaker 1: I think I think that number gets bumped up this year.

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Speaker 1: It's hard for the interior guys to get big numbers.

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Speaker 1: I mean they set up the edge guys to some

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Speaker 1: degree with scheme, but cams of study. I think that's over. Uh,

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Speaker 1: he's got stuff onto it at six point three now

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Speaker 1: two It was in double digits last year. I think

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Speaker 1: with eleven. What's your guess of what those two would

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Speaker 1: combine for. Well, he isn't combining for ten point eight. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think they're more like I think they're right around

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Speaker 1: at some post thirteen to fifteen, somewhere in that range,

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Speaker 1: which is where they were at last year. Last year

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Speaker 1: they had they combined for fifteen. You take that in

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Speaker 1: Harvat Yeah, especially with an extra game, but the extra

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Speaker 1: game and you hope they're healthy, you know, obviously, But yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's got Tyson Lulu with two point three that that's

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Speaker 1: about right right in that range. It depends on how

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Speaker 1: much he plays out to play a fair amount. But

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Speaker 1: so all told, for the defensive interior, he's also got Warmly,

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Speaker 1: Bugs slouder Milk on their fourteen point two sacks for

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Speaker 1: the interior defensive line. I bet that's more like seventeen.

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Speaker 1: I think it's more than that. Yeah, because you'll get

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Speaker 1: the random sack out of Warmly and Bugs will get there,

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Speaker 1: somebody else will get there. Uh. The outside linebackers edge guys,

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Speaker 1: t J. Watt eleven point three sacks, I'm going over that,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going over that too, Yeah, I mean he

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Speaker 1: pretty much shows year after year that he's better than that. Yeah. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Alex Highsmith five point six sacks. Okay, I'd probably still

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Speaker 1: go over, I mean slightly. Yeah, history shows that that

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Speaker 1: front line is going to get more of the sacks

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Speaker 1: than that. But okay. Uh, and then you got Cascious

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Speaker 1: marsh Quincy Rochet, and Calvin Taylor all told nineteen point

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Speaker 1: seven sacks and basically an interception out of the edge guys.

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Speaker 1: Seems I'm going over that number. I am too, Yeah. Uh,

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Speaker 1: interior linebackers or off ball linebackers. Uh, total one thousand

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Speaker 1: and twenty one snaps for Devon Bush, a hundred twenty

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Speaker 1: six tackles, one point seven sacks, and an interception forced

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Speaker 1: fumble as well. It sounds reasonable. Yeah, I hope he

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Speaker 1: plays over a thousand STAPs to go. Up until his

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Speaker 1: injury last year, he had played every defensive snap. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he get hurry prone or he's too small

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Speaker 1: and get beat up, right, I mean he's non contact injury, right,

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Speaker 1: it happens. Uh, they're projecting. I don't think this is

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Speaker 1: the case. He's projecting Vince Williams to be the linebacker

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Speaker 1: who plays the second most snaps at seven. I think

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Speaker 1: i'd agree with that. He played the most last year.

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Speaker 1: He played the most last year. Beau Splain got hurt,

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Speaker 1: explained wasn't a starter before that. I think I think

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Speaker 1: their plan is to start Splain next to Devon Bush. Really, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that surprises me a little. Okay, I think they like

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Speaker 1: him in coverage better than Vince. Okay, um, you're there

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Speaker 1: more than me. I sort of just assumed Vince would

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Speaker 1: be the starter, or at least, but if you remember

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Speaker 1: two years ago, uh, Vince Williams played about thirty percent

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Speaker 1: of the snaps. He's a little like a cockroach though.

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Speaker 1: I mean, oh, he doesn't go He's not going away.

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. And there's still there's still

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Speaker 1: ways that you can use him with. I think you

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Speaker 1: rotate those. But I think the idea is that Splean

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Speaker 1: is on the field a little bit more like when

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Speaker 1: you go Nickel, you want Splain on the field. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and Nicols Nickels yours your base package. Maybe that they

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Speaker 1: like Splain more I do. I know what vince is.

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Speaker 1: And let's put it this way. We think we want

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Speaker 1: splan to go play more than Vincell. Combine, We'll combine

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Speaker 1: their numbers. So the combination is a hundred and three tackles,

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Speaker 1: two point one sacks, and roughly how many snaps between

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Speaker 1: the two of them thousand? That would be eight. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I guess that makes sense. I mean they played, and

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Speaker 1: they played a lot of and I think the idea

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Speaker 1: is to play more Nickel than Dime, right. I would

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Speaker 1: think that Marcus Allen snaps he played two last year,

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Speaker 1: might be zero. Yeah. Um, I think Johnson will play

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Speaker 1: I mean I think he'll play you on the defense

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Speaker 1: at some point throughout the year. So The grand total

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Speaker 1: for the off ball linebackers is tackles, four sacks, and

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Speaker 1: one point four interceptions. Fortunate, I think that's right. It doesn't.

295
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Speaker 1: That doesn't blow you away, But not everyone's gonna get

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Speaker 1: I think I would. I would go over on the interceptions,

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Speaker 1: probably a lot of stuff, you know, because basically you're

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Speaker 1: saying one one and a half interception, so you're saying

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Speaker 1: that now they're gonna get to Yeah. I think that

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Speaker 1: somebody will get their hands on the ball, right right.

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Speaker 1: They seem to do a lot better job of tipping

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Speaker 1: balls the line of scrimmage too, and linebackers good as

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Speaker 1: anyone to grab it. I mean, I would say that

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Speaker 1: for every team if you said the off the ball linebackers,

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Speaker 1: if the over under it's one and a half over,

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Speaker 1: probably going over. But I bet, knowing Mike Clay, probably

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Speaker 1: sixteen teams go over and sixteen go under. Right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it probably is only about one or two a year

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Speaker 1: per linebacker corps. The cornerbacks, okay, Joe Hayden sixty six tackles,

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Speaker 1: two point one interceptions, okay, curious collective corner ball skills

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Speaker 1: takeaway ability, if it's greater, I'm not sure. That it's

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Speaker 1: a strength. Cam Sutton fifty five tackles and one point

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Speaker 1: nine interceptions. Okay, so we're at like four interceptions between

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Speaker 1: the two of them. Justin Lane forty one tackles, point

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Speaker 1: eight interceptions, so he's pencilan and Lane is the third corner.

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Speaker 1: He's got Lane at five thirty seven snaps and James

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Speaker 1: Pierre to sixty. I think that's what we want again.

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Speaker 1: That's not a knock on Pierre, but I think you

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Speaker 1: want Lane to be out there to fulfill what he

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Speaker 1: could do. Um p Pierre, He's got twenty tackles, point

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Speaker 1: five interceptions, Arthur Millette two thirty six snaps, eighteen tackles,

322
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Speaker 1: point four interceptions, and then Train Norwood is the last

323
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Speaker 1: cornerback there eight tackles and point two interceptions. Grand total

324
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Speaker 1: of tackles, one sack and five point eight interceptions. Probably

325
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Speaker 1: don't get the Hilton blitzacks that they used to. That

326
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Speaker 1: numbers gonna go down from previous years. That's a hard

327
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Speaker 1: conversation to have, and I think a lot needs to

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Speaker 1: shake out at the court. Here's the thing I think.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of fans get caught up in

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Speaker 1: the Hilton Blitz is like, Oh, he's a really good player.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing that flits him a lot because he

332
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Speaker 1: wasn't great in coverage. And I'm not ripping Mike Hilton

333
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Speaker 1: at all, but that it's not his strong suit. Like

334
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Speaker 1: if Cincinnati signed him thinking he's gonna solve it, well,

335
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Speaker 1: he's gonna be our nickel and he's gonna he's gonna

336
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Speaker 1: run and cover all these guys. That's not what he does.

337
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Speaker 1: It's the Sailors used him to his best strengths by

338
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Speaker 1: having him blitzer. He's really good at. He's really good at.

339
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: If you drafted him to cover and not do that,

340
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Speaker 1: you're barking up their own trade in him that way.

341
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Speaker 1: In a way, it's kind of like the Rams punter Hecker, Like, yeah,

342
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 1: he's a a good trick guy too, but if you're

343
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Speaker 1: not good at the punting part, we don't care about that, right,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean? And I'm just kind of

345
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Speaker 1: trying to make an analogy, but I mean, Hilton is

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Speaker 1: a good football player, but the blitzing's icing on the cake.

347
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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, um safe, the safeties make I Fitzpatrick eighty

348
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Speaker 1: five tackles, two point five interceptions. I am going over

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Speaker 1: that I'm going over interceptions under on tackles. Yeah, yeah,

350
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Speaker 1: I would agree. Terrell Edmonds seventy nine tackles, one sack,

351
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Speaker 1: two point two interceptions. I'm going over on tackles under

352
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Speaker 1: on interceptions. See, I think again, you're adding an extra

353
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Speaker 1: game one there. I can you get two point two?

354
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Speaker 1: Maybe not? Can you get too? I think you can

355
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Speaker 1: get too. I think you get to last year. That's

356
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Speaker 1: why I went under. But yeah, he's not a take

357
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Speaker 1: of ball away, it's not who he is. But I

358
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Speaker 1: would go way over on tackles. I wonder what snap

359
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Speaker 1: counts are for those two because it's one thousand twenty

360
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Speaker 1: one for Fitzpatrick and f Redmonds. And I think there's

361
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Speaker 1: a really good chance that there the two highest snap

362
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Speaker 1: counts on the team. Oh yeah, you know, Hayden maybe

363
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: in that I think you'd look at Bush you hope, Yeah, yeah,

364
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 1: right right? Uh Antoine Brooks there he's projecting is the

365
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: number three guy hundred twenty nine snaps Donovan Steiner like

366
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Speaker 1: he doesn't. I don't know who that is. Yeah, I'm sorry.

367
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: Maybe he's a diamond in the rough that Mike know,

368
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 1: they get some other guys. I think we will if

369
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Speaker 1: Donovan Steiner is going to see any defensive snaps here. Um,

370
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 1: but all told, for the safeties, you're looking at, uh

371
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Speaker 1: four point nine interceptions. I'm going over that that too.

372
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Speaker 1: I think Manko may have that himself. Yeah, I mean

373
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Speaker 1: that's just who he is. No, I trust him to

374
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Speaker 1: take the turnover is one of the hardest things to predict.

375
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Speaker 1: Of course, the guys who catch the football catch the football, right,

376
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Speaker 1: I mean if that were I'm not saying he's had

377
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Speaker 1: read but what what what would you project that ead

378
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 1: every year six or seven? You know woods right right,

379
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: right right? I mean how many big plays is Troy

380
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 1: gonna have in a year? You know, combination of sacks,

381
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 1: you know, strips, takeaways, you know, you have to go

382
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: pretty high. Speaking of which, the combination sack total for

383
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 1: the Steelers defense, he's got him at forty one. I'm

384
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Speaker 1: going over that. Yeah. I think history shows. History shows.

385
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: I mean they've been over fifty like the last four

386
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Speaker 1: years and with all respected by the prium mean, he

387
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: wasn't a driving force to be that. You know, he's

388
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Speaker 1: a good player and they're gonna to replace him, But

389
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Speaker 1: I think the sack numbers will be I bet they'll

390
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: be on the top five in the league. Yeah, I

391
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: may not repeat it. You know, the fifth time in

392
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Speaker 1: a row top five in the league is gonna put

393
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Speaker 1: you at over forty five. Yeah, I agree with the

394
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Speaker 1: seventeenth game. Seventeenth game, and I'd love to bring this

395
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: up too. I mean, I think sack numbers will go

396
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 1: up across the league just with having fans in your

397
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: home building. Absolutely, you know, having crowd noise in your advantage,

398
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: you know, I think that goes a long way. And

399
00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: then interceptions at thirteen is not a bad number. It's

400
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: not bad. Yeah, that's not a bad number. Would you

401
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: take thirteen or would you take door number? Two? Is fine?

402
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: But I might go fish and hope I get more,

403
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 1: hope you get more. Yeah, absolutely, he would take thirteen.

404
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: It's all said and done. Be a pretty good defense

405
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: with thirteen day boys, his unit grades and I believe

406
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: this would be on a must be on the scale

407
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 1: of to four. Would be the highest quarterback. He gives

408
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 1: him a two point oh four's best four's the best

409
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: dead average running back one point three. I think it's

410
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 1: gonna be above that. I think it's gonna be wide

411
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: receivers three point six. That's really high. That's high. I

412
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 1: don't disagree, but that's really high. Tight end one point six. Okay,

413
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: he was a little low and friar muth as a rookie,

414
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: which which I get. I mean, I'm sure he has

415
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: an algorithm and says rookie tight ends keep bringing it down. Yeah,

416
00:23:53,080 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: offensive line point one, that's ivan. Yeah, I mean, you

417
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 1: can't get anything lower than the almost I mean point one.

418
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 1: I'd give them a little more credit than that. Wow,

419
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: that's like startles me. David the Castro and five guys

420
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 1: you pulled out or four guys you pulled off the streets,

421
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 1: you get more than a point one, right, I mean

422
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: I thought I thought you were going to hear like

423
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: a one point oh, and I was saying, I'll probably

424
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 1: go a little higher point one, and you get the

425
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: running backs at one point three? Right, My eyes are

426
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: kind of balls on my head. And point one. Uh,

427
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: interior defensive line four point oh wow, that might be

428
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: a little rich to well, that would be that's saying

429
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: that they're the tost the best in the league. Yeah, okay,

430
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: it's really good. But yeah, okay, I don't know if

431
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: they get an a plus edge three point one okay, good, okay,

432
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: um off ball linebackers one point five. I think that's

433
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: about right. Was it. Last segment we were giving grades

434
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: to sit the different units, and they were average to below.

435
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: Cornerback one point Oh m hmm, I hope not. I

436
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 1: mean I could write a story where that's true. But

437
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,400
Speaker 1: if Hayden loses a step and or Sutton gets hurt

438
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: or Lane doesn't step up, but that's every team though.

439
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: You start talking about this guy gets hurt or that guy. Yeah,

440
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: that's They have a pretty good history of finding the

441
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: next Mike Kilton out of a group of slot type dudes.

442
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: So I bet it's better than that. But it would

443
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: be a rough year if they have at one point

444
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,479
Speaker 1: out at the corner position. Yeah, there's no doubt. It

445
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: also wouldn't blow my doors off their first round pick

446
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: next year as a corner. No, it wouldn't surprise me. Yeah,

447
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: I think that's in the pot. I think quarterback would

448
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: probably trump that a little. Yeah, but maybe they get

449
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: someone else. Yeah, uh safety three point five. Nice, I'm

450
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: dead on. I like that offensive ranking overall nineteen. I

451
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: would take door number two, but I think I think

452
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: it's nineteen because they get a one point three at

453
00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: running back and at point one. Yeah, they're like saying

454
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: they're not gonna block a soul. You're not gonna block

455
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: a soul in the running back, stinking right. I mean,

456
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 1: if you can get that point eight, if you if

457
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: your offensive line is point five and your running back

458
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: room is two point five, each of those raised a

459
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: half a point one point eight for the running backs

460
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: and point five for the offensive line. Now all of

461
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 1: a sudden, your offense goes from nineteen to I don't know, right,

462
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: I mean, if Harris is more team fifth on the

463
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year ballot, I mean I'm out seating

464
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: even one. I would imagine that gets you a two

465
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: point five or whatever, and that you're above average. I

466
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: don't think the lines would be the worst in the league.

467
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: Give me the worst in the league. I mean, would

468
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: you take the line as the if I said it's

469
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: the twenty fourth best line in the league, would you

470
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: say I'll take that, or would you go to door

471
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: number two? It's not that rich. It's not that there's

472
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: some dreadful lines in the league. I would my expectation

473
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,239
Speaker 1: would be that would be better than that. Yeah, if

474
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: you're told not a lot better than that, but better

475
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: than that. If you told me, if Genie came out

476
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: and said, I'll give you the anst best line in

477
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: the league, I think I'll say I'll take that. I'll

478
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: take that. I'll take that. I'm not interested in door

479
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: number two. Might take door number two. I agree. Um,

480
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: the defensive ranking is number four. I think it's the

481
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: top five units. I probably would put that's what the

482
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: that's what the off ball linebackers at one point, five

483
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: in the corners at one point. Oh, I think I

484
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 1: would take that too. Yeah, if you've got the number

485
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: four defense overall, yeah, unless he's in terms of fantasy stuff, Yeah,

486
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: but if you have, and I think his projections for

487
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: their sack totals are low, so there's definitely the possibility

488
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: that in terms of fantasy football they can be much

489
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: higher than that. I'd have to give it some thought.

490
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 1: But if we're doing fantasy draft today, I'm taking Washington's

491
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: defense ahead of them. I probably could come up with another.

492
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: Maybe the Rams, I don't know, I mean, but there's

493
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: not many. Yeah, because pass rushed to me so important

494
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: when I'm drafting the defense, and I know it's gonna

495
00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: be a good pass rush. So I mean, so it's

496
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: in that neighborhood. But again, I mean, if I told

497
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: you had the top five defense, if you're the fourth

498
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: or fifth best defense in the league in two thousand

499
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: twenty one, they'll be hard to beat. I mean they're

500
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: gonna be yeah. Yeah. Um. He's projecting him to finish

501
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 1: in rushing thirty feet and rushing yards and thirty one

502
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: and rushing touchdowns. I don't see. That's about where they

503
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,679
Speaker 1: were last year, right, That's where they were. They were

504
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 1: thirty two last year. Yeah, I mean that's that's that's

505
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: not a big enough jump. No, it's just not That's

506
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: not what's gonna happen. I mean their yards per carry.

507
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: He's projecting him to finish fourteenth and sacks, Like, Mike,

508
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: what do you mean just losing Bud to prison? I mean,

509
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: I know, I'm sure he has some algorithms and some

510
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: history that show the most if you looked at don't

511
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 1: the last thirty years every defense that led the league

512
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: in sacks, where do they end up the next year?

513
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: I bet it's seventh or eight, you know what I mean,

514
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: It's probably not well, they're the first team. It's ever

515
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: no team had ever led the league three straight years.

516
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: They've not led it four straight years, and we'd all

517
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: bet against him doing it again. Yeah, So you don't

518
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: think the hidden vigorous says, yeah, bet against them being

519
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: the league leader again. But they're not gonna fall off

520
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: the cliff. It's not like the roulette reo would just

521
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: hit black twenty times in rows, so now it's gonna

522
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: hit red. Yeah, you know what I mean. I don't

523
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: think I think they'll be top ten. He's also projecting

524
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 1: them to lead the league in passing attempts. Again, I

525
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 1: don't know that that's not gonna happen. There'd be a

526
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: long year if it is. Yeah, which is why he's

527
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: projecting them to finish so low in the rushing attempts.

528
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: You know, I think, Yeah, your your computer is gonna

529
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: spit that out at you because it doesn't factor in

530
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: the human element of this. It doesn't factor in that

531
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 1: you've got are art roomy. The second going, we didn't

532
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: run the football around the ball more so. Yeah, if

533
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: your boss tells you run the ball more, you're run

534
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: the ball more and you find somebod else. Will you

535
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: know by the way you spend a first round draft

536
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: pick on a running back. Yeah, not a wide receiver,

537
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: not a quarterback of running back. I don't off the

538
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: top of my head what their run past percentage was,

539
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: but I bet it changes by four or five percent,

540
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: maybe because you know, maybe it's fifty forty two instead

541
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: of sixty two. It was over sixty. I knew that,

542
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: but I wasn't sure what number. But yeah, but that's

543
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: a significant change, big deal. The course of that makes

544
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: snaps over the year and how they do it will

545
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: change to Yeah, absolutely, but an interesting little uh no,

546
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: that's fun gets there from Mike lay on ESPN. But

547
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for our show today. I

548
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: hope everybody has a great weekend. We will be back

549
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: again to remind everybody Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday from minicamp at Hinesfield.

550
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: You'll build live from four to six each day, no,

551
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: three to five, five each day, but there will be

552
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: other shows. Yeah, we'll have a wall to wall coverage

553
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: that they'll be shows all day from down at hines

554
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: Field with everybody US, Moates and Ruler and all kinds

555
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: of Jacobo been doing a show down there, So lots

556
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: of lots of good stuff going on down there. But

557
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: for my partner Matt Williamson for Jacob Breck. You're on

558
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: site keeping us on the air during the show. I'm

559
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: deal Lally. We thank you for listening to this edition

560
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: of The Drive on Steelers Nation Radio